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Latest Roy Morgan poll

Written By: - Date published: 3:04 pm, July 31st, 2014 - 192 comments
Categories: polls - Tags: ,

Roy Morgan

I know at the Standard we rarely post about individual polls and there is danger in relying on a single poll and caution should always be exercised but the latest Roy Morgan poll gives a reason for lefties to smile a bit and it has been a while!

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a large fall in support for National (46%, down 5% – the lowest since May) now with a significantly reduced lead over a potential Labour/Greens alliance (42%, up 3.5%) just two months before the New Zealand Election on September 20.

Support for Key’s Coalition partners has changed little overall with the Maori Party 1.5% (up 0.5%), Act NZ (0.5%, unchanged) and United Future 0.5% (unchanged).

Support for the Labour Party is 30% (up 6.5%), but the Greens are down 3% to 12%. Potential ‘king-makers’ NZ First is 5% (down 1%), the Internet-Mana Party alliance is 2.5% (up 1%). Support for the Conservative Party of NZ is 1% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Others is 1% (up 1%).

Of course anything can happen between now and election day but if this represents the trend then it is going to be a very interesting campaign …


192 comments on “Latest Roy Morgan poll”

  1. Craig Glen Eden 1

    Its a start of the reversal we need. “The headlines will read Labour still struggling Cunliffe should resign”. but hey .

  2. feijoa 2


    Now watch the Nats bashing machine really swing into action

    I saw the DomPost managed to devote about an inch to Labours wages policy

    Yes indeed still more work to be done but definitely not all gloom and doom like some would say

    • Rosie 2.1

      Lolz they did too. In the “briefs” section. Yet opposite that was a Jane Clifton article with accompanying photo about Tony Ryall’s last day and how his colleagues all turned up wearing ugly ties in solidarity.

      Getting the important stories out there Dompost!

  3. Bearded Git 3

    This poll taken before Labour’s $16.25 minimum wage announcement which IMHO is a bit of a game changer.

    • srylands 3.1

      .. for the 2.4% of people on minimum wage who either don’t vote, or vote for Left parties already. How is that a game changer?

      Howe many National voting cleaners are you going to switch to Labour with this policy?

      • Tracey 3.1.1

        Maybe unlike you there are a number not on minimum wage themselves who want to see it raised for others?

      • One Anonymous Bloke 3.1.2

        How many faith-based policy merchants who peddle false economic beliefs to needy politicians will support this policy?

        Sooner or later the truth will out: S Rylands fears for his income.

        • Tracey

          S Lylands is one of the poorer areas on Planet Key

          • disturbed

            Last day at Parliament and no show P.M.?’

            Gee he couldn’t take the heat that the poll laid on him eh?

            He must have gone to Planet Key eh?

            Hope he doesn’t come back.

      • Tiger Mountain 3.1.3

        Hit the torys where it hurts I say–via their bloated, bulging overstuffed bank accounts!

        Time to share boys. You lot would not get out of bed for $15.00 or $16.25 per hour, but it will be significant for thousands of New Zealanders.

        • One Anonymous Bloke

          That isn’t quite how it works TM: throughout NZ history, New Zealanders have created more wealth under Labour led governments than National led ones.

          A bigger pie shared more fairly means win/win.

          • Tiger Mountain

            Sure as graphs archived on The Standard show; but the business sector has been win-winning all on its lonesome and some redress is now needed as well as the positive stuff a Labour led government will deliver.

      • Akldnut 3.1.4

        “How many National voting cleaners are you going to switch to Labour with this policy?”

        All the ones on min wage or less.

      • appleby 3.1.5

        but a load of cleaners who have had enough and are tuned out of politics could very well bdecide to vote and guess who they will vote for…

      • Bearded Git 3.1.6

        Srylands-Labour over the last 6 polls. Spot the trend?

        23.5%, 24.9%, 26.5%, 26.7%, 28%, 30%………………..31%, 32%, 33%, 34%…bye bye John.

      • dave 3.1.7

        I still think peters can claim another 2 percent and srylands its not just minimum wage earners its affordable housing modern monetary policy ,smaller class sizes ,economic up grade away form a high pollution dumb economy ,cheaper power , $60 a week kids under 3 years old restarting the Cullen fund what’s national policies spray and walk away then blame sneer and generally behave like a tosser.ie you!

      • framu 3.1.8

        conidering that A) cleaners would in most cases get a pay rise and B) your own (ie – the neoliberal right) ideology is all about rational economic actors – i would suspect all of them

        your own stupid ideology says they would

        thats if theres min wage cleaners who vote nat in the first place – sure there might be some, but im picking not that many. You might hate poor people, but they arent as stupid as you think they are

    • Chooky 3.2

      +100 Bearded Git…Labour is on a winner with the upping the minimum wage …good honest Left and pro- worker policy!

      …Eat your heart out srylands and Act…not looking too bright for you on 0.5% of New Zealanders wanting to vote for you

      …and OMG your condition has stablised into a terminal morbidity blip…like your great NeoLib leader Maggie Thatcher…your ACT is heading for the dead and buried!

      • Tracey 3.2.1

        ACT will win Epsom, so they stagger on… It is amazing the damage they can do though

        • to Well Tracey all I can say is that if the poor saps in Epsom are so brainwashed and stupid as to as do as they are told regardless of the outcome then they deserve everything they get.
          However by their past voting record I can only presume that Epsom must be full of “Born to Rule chinless wonders .

          • The Al1en

            Well with RH, DB and now JW, hairless wonders also works too.

            • the pigman

              You forgot one Alien! John Boscawen (sp?) – the other JB – gets in there after RH (or was it after DB? I don’t give so much attention to those guys.)

          • Tracey

            It is full of people who preach to others about personal responsibility and accountability but dont practice it.

          • Michael

            It is and they are.

        • Lanthanide

          I’m really not sure they will win Epsom, to be honest.

          • Tom Jackson

            Yes. It seems unlikely that ACT would get another MP on current polling, so there isn’t that much reason for National voters to switch.

            • Tracey

              They were only heading for one last time they had a cuppa, and nats know ACT will only get one this timebut have sent the message out to vote for seymour

          • Tracey

            Can I ask what you base that on?

            • Lanthanide

              John Banks and the stench coming from ACT. The fact that their latest candidate is clearly a robot. Jamie Whyte is out of touch with ordinary NZers every time he’s opened his mouth in public.

  4. Tracey 4

    I wonder if Key’s recent leaning toward Peters suggests nationals daily polling is reflecting a similar position?

    Why wont Nats say which UF and ACT policies it will entertain?

    • Chooky 4.1

      Key has done a huge unblushing U-TURN on whether to try and go with Peters and NZF…once upon a time it was out of the question because Winnie was untrustworthy!!!!

      Now Key can see the writing on the wall and NACT is on the ropes… Key really is getting desperate !…..because I don’t think Peters fancies him at all…and Key is having to grovel…Winnie must be smiling into his whiskey

    • Colonial Viper 4.2

      The NATs wont even admit to which of its own policies it will entertain…

    • AmaKiwi 4.3

      Because they are a secret, like charter schools were a secret last election.

  5. Matthew Hooton 5

    “I know at the Standard we rarely post about individual polls.”


    What you mean is “At the Standard we always post about positive polls for Labour and never about negative polls for Labour so over recent years we have rarely posted about individual polls … ”

    But thank goodness for Roy Morgan. The political punditry work was at risk of drying up.

    [lprent: Another horseshit myth, steaming with the aroma of simple minded lack of attention as Hooton dropped another one.

    This is a pattern of authoring that is at least 6 years old as authors figured out what was a useful amount of data to pick trends in bouncing polls (5-6 weeks). About the only time it varies is when there is a discussion about polling techniques or at election times.

    These are the posts over the last 6 months about polls. You will note that we usually seem to do them about every 5-6 weeks regardless of what the results for the left are. The frequency will start increasing as we approach an election (just as they have done in the last two elections).

    July 31: this one.
    July 22: http://thestandard.org.nz/polity-poll-of-polls-update/
    July 17: http://thestandard.org.nz/polity-new-polls/
    June 17: http://thestandard.org.nz/polity-herald-poll/
    June 07: http://thestandard.org.nz/polity-morgans-poll-and-morgans-commentary/
    May 07: http://thestandard.org.nz/latest-roy-morgan/
    Mar 31: http://thestandard.org.nz/polity-the-new-tv-polls/
    Feb 25: http://thestandard.org.nz/on-polls-and-things/

    Of course you could look through
    or just search

    If you want to make up dumbarse myths, then perhaps you should try looking first for something that isn’t quite as easy to disprove.

    If I see anyone going with this fuckwit myth again, they will immediately get a year long ban for stupidity. I’ve now pointed this out several times and I’m getting tired of doing so. Care to be the first? ]

    • mickysavage 5.1

      Often about positive polls and not so often about negative polls but you should forgive me for having a little smile on my face right now. And I agree Matthew that you have consistently said that this election will be too close to call.

      • Matthew Hooton 5.1.1

        yes, fair enough

        • Saarbo

          Oh things seem to be heading in the right direction for labour, in our local community paper which has a weekly contribution from Fran O Sullivan, she has provided a big endorsement of Labours Sheep and Beef policy. This on the back of a huge drop in the Fonterra payout and farmers are starting to look a bit more carefully at Labour’s Monetary Policy and its potential impact on exch and int rates….could be some votes swinging soon…from very un-traditional voters.

          Ill have a swagger when I put up the Red hoardings this weekend.

          Every ones a winner under Labour.

    • bad12 5.2

      ”what you mean is” Tsk Tsk Tsk wee Matty, you are sliding ever so close there to having Papa come along and put you over His knee for an illegal yet much needed corrective spanking…

      • Chooky 5.2.1

        yes i am all for a “corrective spanking” in this case…particularly as Possum has insistently been advising and urging Labour to replace Cunliffe with Shearer …again!

    • Matthew Hooton 5.3

      Relax, lprent. It was a joke. Greg got this post up within about 10 mins of the poll being published. (I wonder if old DPF and Whaleoil managed to be so quick on this occasion!)

      [lprent: Sounded suspiciously like a old and very hackneyed joke. Don’t know about Micky, but I get a email when they publish. ]

      • The Al1en 5.3.1

        Bet it’s panic stations at your accountants post election.

        • Chooky

          lol…Possum won’t answer that …he will be hunting for a new tree food source

        • Te Reo Putake

          Actually, I reckon Matthew and his accountants would be hoping for a Nat loss. If I remember my Hollow Men correctly, he did much more work for them in opposition. It’s the losing side that really needs the advice.

          • The Al1en

            Yes, with quality analysis like his, he’ll be top of the list for sure 😆

          • RedBaronCV

            So Mathew needs to now be known as “Mathew de Talleyrand-Périgord Hooten” perhaps for his abilty to switch sides at the opportune moment?

            (Talleyrand worked as a government minister for the Bourbon kings before the revolution, successive revolutionary governments, Napoleon & the bourbon kings again after restoration- thanks Wikipedia)

            Makes Peter Dunne’s flip flopping look very amateur

            And just for the record I don’t think it will be a close election (that was the last one) – it will be a fine day with heavy early turnout as the country walks down the road and boots Nact out.

            • Martin

              Napoleon Bonaparte referred to the real Telleyrand as “That shit in silk stockings”

            • disturbed

              End of Parliament today and guess what John key was absent!!!

              It was comical to see labour and Winston tormenting the leftovers, as they looked around like a groom to be wondering where the bride to be was.

              He must have got a chill after the Roy Morgan poll came out?
              It’s not in his DNA to be tormented as he usually likes to be the only one dishing it out to the opposition side, so we wouldn’t be surprised he has left for US to get some free pre election adverts again at Warner Studio’s as a payback for the $40 million he gave them of our taxpayer money to curry favour.

              Then after he will go sit on the wall St exchange, with is ex wall St currency trader mate Kruger and plot to sink the Kiwi dollar again like in the 1980’s and make another bucket of money off our backs again as he bids us farewell. Then go to his castle in Hawaii and play golf with his mate Obama.

              He even may have gone off again to the Bilderberg group for help and sit at their table of Global powerful elitists he loves to rub shoulders with as they plot to control every corner of the Globe.

              What a fascinating shadowy dark character he is.

        • bad12

          i hear the sad wail of an out of tune violin playing in the background…

          • The Al1en

            Are you sure that’s not Judith limbering up for a leadership tilt?

            • bad12

              More the sound of the whole Caucus sharpening their knives for a bloodless coup National style where the tanker parked outside disguised with the Fonterror insignia is really chocka full of plasma…

              • tricledrown

                Brain Fade Key will be off to Washington via Hawaiikey as ambassador to the USoA.
                that if he remembers where the Airport is .

        • Martin

          shredding files and running to catch the next flight to Amerika

      • tricledrown 5.3.2

        the only joke is you you are already yesterdays man your so-cold genius has you beached like Whale all washed up.
        Blubber on.

      • framu 5.3.3

        helps if you add 🙂 or (/sarc) or something matt – thats how people know for sure your having a laugh as opposed to being, well, yourself 🙂 (see how that works)

      • North 5.3.4

        “Relax lprent Old Chap…….was a joke !

        Condescending to the core…….even in strategic withdrawal.

        Excellent. Will be their undoing.

  6. bad12 6

    Humpty Dumpty and all that, and should Winston take a great fall, down will come ACT, National and all,

    DotCom, Hone, Lailla, Annette and all, not being the Kings men, will withdraw their labour and refuse to glue Humpty together again…

    • tricledrown 6.1

      Genius bad 12

    • North 6.2

      Bad12……excellent ! Try it to the tune of My Ding-a-Ling. Practise a bit…….it really works !

    • North 6.3

      Bad12……excellent ! Try it to the tune of My Ding-a-Ling. Practise a bit…….it really works !

    • David H 6.4

      “DotCom, Hone, Lailla, Annette and all, not being the Kings men” Did a John Key, refused to read the directions, and ended up with Chicken Little.

  7. swordfish 7

    Brilliant. One will add the stats to one’s blog.

    Lab+Green between 3-6 points higher than in other July polls. In fact, they haven’t been up at 42% since mid May. As you say, just one poll, but hopeful signs….

    …Do I sense another series of MSM attacks on Cunliffe in the wings ?….Wearing the wrong colour shirt ?, Slept in for half an hour ?, Brushes his hair the wrong way ?….what will the next alleged “woeful gaffe” be ?

    Actually, I wish I hadn’t said that, I’ll be giving John Armstrong ideas.
    Tomorrow’s Herald Front Page Headline:
    Cunliffe in Wrong Shirt Colour Shocker !!! We Say he MUST Resign Now by Herald Special Investigative reporter, John P Armstrong.

    • Tracey 7.1

      Can you post your url? I forgot it and cannot find it in my bookmarks

    • Matthew Hooton 7.2

      I bet he puts the water on his toothbrush after the toothpaste.

      • ianmac 7.2.1

        David doesn’t snore. A sure sign of….. Hang on. How would Cameron know about that?

      • anker 7.2.2

        Yes how the right have been trying to portray DC doesn’t really go with your “diagnosis” of narcissistic personality disorder. But hell, you wouldn’t let that stop you from smearing him. Any angle at all eh!

      • Puddleglum 7.2.3

        Gulp! So do I … I never knew …

      • tricledrown 7.2.4

        unlike you mad hater as nothing sticks to your brush because it has to much whaleoil on it

    • Akldnut 7.3

      Tomorrows Herald

      “Labour party Leader sleeps till 9.00am each morning”

      In a drowsy state at 9.00am this morning, Labour party leader David Cunliffe was seen picking up the NZ Herald delivered to his home daily at 4.30am each morning. When asked about his pink pyjamas and purple dressing gown with large yellow printed teddy bears he stated that “They are all The rage, along with a slumber hair net which helps to avoid “bed hair” sticking up”

      Could New Zealanders have a prime minister with such appalling night dress sense? Kiwis will be asking themselves after today’s dreadful exhibition of of poor judgement and dress sense>

      This will surely be the game breaker when hundreds of thousands from both the Left and Right go to the booths on Sept 20 2014.

      John Armstrong
      NZ Herald chief political commentator

    • Bearded Git 7.4

      Cunliffe excellent last speech in parliament today-it’s all coming together. Next appearance will be on the opposite benches as PM.

  8. mickysavage 8

    What is the bet that John Key is furiously hunting for Colin Craig’s cellphone number right now?

    • Tracey 8.1

      More likely opening that drawer in his office

    • Te Reo Putake 8.2

      It’s funny really, because which ever way he went with Craig, there was a potential downside. Pull McCully in ECB and risk losing party votes from liberal Nats who don’t want a bar of CrayCray or step away from that option and risk losing party votes from religious Nat’s who now have to tick Conservative in the hope of getting Craig past the 5%.

      5% isn’t going to happen, obviously, but it’s going to be great that every Conservative party vote is now going to be one less vote for Key’s 3rd term.

    • tricledrown 8.3

      mickesavage practicing his three way handshake

    • Clemgeopin 8.4

      Here it is: 911!

  9. Wayne 9

    This poll says its all about Winston. And where do you think he is going to go?

    • Tracey 9.1

      Most importantly Key thinks this polling is right… So is wooing Winston. Very much a case of if you dont like my principles, i have some different ones for you, aye Wayne.

    • bad12 9.2

      On 5% i would suggest that Winston is going the same way He did in 2008, Colon the Conservative with blood in His eye from having been left standing alone at the alter by Slippery the Prime Minister is still going to use His millions to burn some electoral rubber,

      Ascribed a paltry 1% by Roy Morgan i have no doubt that Colon the Conservative, crazed like every jilted john befor Him in the annals of history will gather at least 2.5% of the vote in September a mere smidgeon of which if taken from NZFirst will bring down the House of Winston and leave Slippery the Prime Minister standing alone at the same alter that Colon previously wept at,

      S’pose you could always dream that the Conservatives % of the vote is going to be taken from InternetMana…

      • Tiger Mountain 9.2.1

        nice to have result for the left;
        Winston First–4.9%
        Internet Mana–5%, could happen
        Labour to rise to early 30s, Labour supporters will be hoping so
        Green to rise slightly and solidify for Sept 20

        …and the election season has barely started like Labour’s big launch in Auckland coming up and the enrol and vote campaigns getting down to business and TV debates. Will ShonKey want two rescue dogs in his kennel at the same time?

        • Kiwiri

          Haha. Very good.

          • tricledrown

            looking at colon Craigs billboard he looks like something out of a Hitchcock movie.

        • bad12

          Yep, Labour 33%, Greens 12%, InternetMana 5%, by themselves singularly unspectacular numbers but addition makes them a piece of mathematical joy, Fifty Percent!!!

          Far from impossible lets do it…

      • Tracey 9.2.2

        Its over to the people at uppity harbour to vote for christine not paula 😉

    • Olwyn 9.3

      Winston has already lashed out angrily at the claim that he will go with National.


      I do not say that he won’t in the end, but he knows very well that his vote will plummet if people assume that he will.

      • Chooky 9.3.1

        agreed…and it will be the end of him politically if he does go with Key…because Peter’s policies and all his statements have been totally at variance with Key’s neolib Nact agenda

      • bad12 9.3.2

        Olwyn, IF Ron Marks actually uttered those words attributed to Him by Granny Herald this morning you have to wonder what the motive actually was,

        i thought the NZFirst selection panel had inserted Brendon Who into the Parliament as the obvious heir apparent to Winston,(and Winston didn’t like the intrusion one little bit),

        Are forces within NZFirst smarting over Winston’s unilateral dismissal of Brendon and using Ron Marks in some bizarre ritual of retribution,

        There is a thought here that if Marks suddenly appears in a high spot on the NZFirst list there is a signal that IF Winston does not take the Party into coalition with National then He will be rolled, Marks installed as leader and the deal done,

        Ron’s remarks are either really really stupid or deliberately machiavellian with a future outcome firmly in mind…

        • Olwyn

          Interesting point. I will watch out for that. Your suggestion makes me wonder if someone is waving big donations in front of the less visible members of NZ1, with conditions attached.

          • bad12

            Olwyn, there is one more thin strand of the conversation today worth repeating, perhaps Ron Marks has no intention of entering the fray of national politics again,(busy man and all that, head of the negotiating team for Ngati Kahugnugnu, appointed to two DHBs),

            Bizarrely and unlikely as it is, He may have just decided to take, for reasons known only to Him, a pretty effective parting shot at Winston by painting Him as less than honest with the ”no deals till after the vote” Winston continues to drip from the snake-oil bottle…

            • Olwyn

              You could be right there – Marks might merely be trying to make things tricky for him.

        • Chooky

          once Winnie goes it will be the end of NZF imo…..unless they find someone young and vibrant

          …Ron Marks is yesterdays man imo

          ..not to worry …Winnie will be good for another couple of terms…but only if he goes with Labour …he is finished if he goes with John key and Nactional….and even the hint of this is the breath of death and he knows it

          …so dream on John Key and all you NACTs…you are finished because Winnie will spurn you!

          • phillip ure

            that’s quite the sheet-anchor you are clinging to there..chooky..

            ..winston peters is no longer a safe-vote…for anyone wanting change…

            • The Al1en

              But you would say that, wouldn’t you, pushing the last cab of the rank like a trooper.

              • winston made it pretty clear by mentioning the Māori Party in his tired little rant that the gnats will get the big eyes from him – he is the rankest cab by far – but please vote for him if that’s what spins your wheels.

                • The Al1en

                  No, I wouldn’t vote Winston and NZ1st, just like I’d never vote for hone, but I’d still prefer them in a Green/Labour coalition over your fella, who went totally bug eyed over kim’s loot.

                  If it’s a car game, phil can push the cab, you can wipe the dirty tracks left in it’s wake.

                  • I think you’ve been sucked in allen by the sharp suits and pithy soundbites – winston in any coalition will be unstable and unpredictable – which is why he will be poison in a leftish one – luckily that won’t happen because winnie prefers his old rightie mates especially when they are greasing.

                    Funny how the last cab off the rank becomes the first if you turn around. I remember the Tour protests and in wellington getting there late (bloody units) thinking I’ll be at the back – then I started noticing some ‘names’ and next thing I was at the front – so much better than being in the middle i can tell you, the middle sucks.

                    • The Al1en

                      That’s funny, I thought consensus was he did alright in the last Clark government, apart from the Glenn donations saga, which poo poos over the right v left poison comment seeing as he didn’t go with Brash.
                      Of course, mentioning donations and scandals, I hope your glass house at the mana has good stone protection, if you know what I mean.

                      I’ll celebrate a change of government in September either way, but for stability, with the kdc saga, the divisive activists retarding their way across prime time in front of mum and dad New Zealand, Winnie still makes for a more stable government.
                      I don’t fault your enthusiasm for dreams come true, wishing a very minority party, with a very minority leader having sway in post election talks, but 99% of voters wouldn’t touch hh with a barge pole, for obvious reasons.

                      Still a good chance for Labour to get 35% of the vote and the Greens 15%, and take all the flakes, of whatever variety, out of the equation for good. That would be the best result all round.

                    • lol Maaaaaate you are so worried about what others think of you – activists have a lot more self belief, and optimism, try it you may like it.

                    • The Al1en

                      I think it’s quite obvious I don’t care much for my ego, but keeping it relevant to the election and the 99 or 98 percent of people who don’t and won’t vote hh, appearances, and indeed public perception of stable governance are valid points.

                      We’re all activists in our own way mars, and belief and optimism are never in short supply here. Just ’cause you shout the loudest doesn’t mean you’re more dedicated or even deserve to be taken seriously.

                      35/15+ is in my opinion the best option for a stable left NZ government, even if kdc wastes his millions and you have to go to sleep with a heavy heart and tears on your pillow.
                      I don’t do youtube, but sure there’s a vid for that one somewhere 😉

                    • sure you can have some validity if it’s so important to you

                      no, we aren’t all activists at all – that’s silly

                      your opinion of what constitutes a stable government is nice

                      I’m pretty sure I know why you don’t like Kim – he’s from Germany and rich but why the hate on Hone – was it something he said? he did? he didn’t do? To be truthful I don’t really care about your reasons other than for interests sake – I mean I’d never expect (or want) you to change your view – I just wonder why you formed it – did he rip into the english at some point or something?

                    • The Al1en

                      If you don’t care for answers, it’s a bit retarded to ask questions, no?

                      No need for me to play your game and get dragged through your court of opinion mars, but for the record, should anyone care, outside of those wishing to set agenda, I don’t not like germans or people with money, I take each as I find, and I find kim and hone to be incompatible with stable left leaning government like 99 or 98% of NZ voters.

                    • “The word “retarded” is an offensive term for people with intellectual disabilities. However, it is often also used as an insult, which is entirely inappropriate. You can avoid using the word altogether. Keep reading for detailed instructions.”


                    • The Al1en

                      informal offensive – very foolish or stupid.

                      Yep, agenda setting like a goodun 🙄
                      Unless you actually have an intellectual disability, in which case I apologise unreservedly.

                    • lol – you said it – but then again you’re a fan of giving it rather than taking it aren’t you – I’ll leave you alone now, no cat likes playing with a dead mouse, not even me 🙂

                    • The Al1en

                      I’m guessing the “I’ll leave you alone” and “dead mouse” is about you “winning” again.
                      No worries, I’ll be around next time you think you can direct the debate, like you’re the only lefty in the village. :snigger: :wave:

            • disturbed

              Phillip, you are talking crap.
              Winnie has more real fortitude than you have, he is one of those rare politicians toady that speaks from the heart, as when he came to Gisborne he got so many folks asking questions and clapping audience with every reply that the crowd was galvanised with him all 150 people, and how many does your lot get when they come to a small town like Gisborne?

              You had better believe there is a real change coming and today you should have watched parliament closing down, he was electric, and Key was absent all the day, so guess who knows time is up?

              • Chooky

                disturbed +100

                Winston is pure talent…his university law professor said you see a student with his sort of ability but very rarely…better than David Lange…this is why i think when Winston goes so will NZF…however Winnie still has a lot of life in him yet…enough for 2 more terms

                …but if i were him i would be watching my back…such is the NACTs desire to win and with so much of their investments and secret schemes for NZ resting on a WIN ….Winnie better make sure of his deputy and the loyalty of his MPs imo ( and maybe employ a taster …lol)

          • Martin

            Shame we have to kiss so many toads to get a prince.

        • Tracey

          Interesting observation bad

    • North 9.4

      God Wayne you’re sounding terrribly dark…..what wrong boyo ?

  10. Zorr 10

    And undecideds are still really really high:
    “Of all electors surveyed 6.5% (up 1%) didn’t name a party.”

    This result with that additional actually makes this look really bad for National.

    • Chooky 10.1

      agreed…the undecideds will probably go with the new spring tide…which is TIME FOR A CHANGE!

  11. Griffon 11

    Umm anyone notice that in August 2013 that Labour under Shearer plus the Greens were polling higher than what they are now? Throwing it out there that who knows what the polls would be looking like if Labour stuck with Shearer.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 11.1

      It’s lying there. Best you pick it up, since you threw it.

    • Te Reo Putake 11.2

      Yeah, I think that was the line the paid tory commenters were using a couple of month’s back, but it fell a bit flat. What I’m liking is the sympathy vote for Cunliffe; Kiwis love an underdog and DC’s come out of last month’s smearfest looking like a winner. Perhaps Key’s lengthy Hawaiian holiday was a mistake after all.

    • swordfish 11.3

      Umm anyone notice that in August 2013 that Labour under Shearer plus the Greens were polling higher than what they are now ? Throwing it out there that who knows what the polls would be looking like if Labour stuck with Shearer

      Significantly worse than they are now, sweet-pea. Shearer would’ve come in for precisely the same MSM firestorm and he would have been far too inept and inarticulate to deal with it.

      You see, what you’ve inadvertently forgotten too mention is that both Labour and Lab+Green were polling higher during Cunliffe’s first few months as leader than they were during Shearer’s last few months. So, had Shearer remained leader, Labour and the broader Left would have been starting from a lower support base when the full force of MSM Black Ops fury began to hit the hapless Shearer.

    • @ griffin..

      ‘um..!..aah..!,..,um..!..aah..!.’.wd be how it wd be sounding..

  12. Te Reo Putake 12

    Just did a quick electoral calculation. Assuming all the current parties retain an electorate seat, but Winston falls just short, it’s 63/57. If the Maori party flop, which I think will happen, it’s 62/58. If Winston gets in with 5%, then it’s either 60/54/6 (with MP) or 59/55/6.

    If the right block lose another 2 points to the left, then they simply cannot form a majority government, unless NZF are in Parliament and support them.

    • srylands 12.1

      Well I guess there is some serious money for you to make then. You can join Cameron Slater who is betting heavily on “Labour PM” with Centrebet. At the current odds I might join him. I assume you will too. If we do end up with that result, I would feel better with $6,000 as compensation 🙂

      • Te Reo Putake 12.1.1

        Thanks for the tip. I usually restrict myself to footy, but I think a punt on Labour might be worth a go. Sportingbet currently have the Nats at 1.11, Labour 6 bucks.

      • Chooky 12.1.2

        @ srylands…”$6,000 as compensation”….venal as ever!…many people do not have any discretionary income and struggle to get by …ever think of them?

      • Skinny 12.1.3

        No surprise seeing you and Hooton on here acting slightly strange Shrillands. Speaking of betting, I bet Key is off to church on Sunday with Craig.

        • Chooky

          snigger …as Winnie has spurned him

          • lurgee

            If you believe Peters won’t coalesce with National at the drop of a ballot, you’re a fool.

            He won’t work with Mana or the Maori Party. Which is more about him seeing off possible rival minor parties than any real principle.

            • phillip ure

              @ lurgee..

              “..If you believe Peters won’t coalesce with National at the drop of a ballot, you’re a fool..”

              ..+ 1..

              • The Al1en

                “..If you believe Peters won’t coalesce with National at the drop of a ballot, you’re a fool..”

                Like Hone did with the mp

                • bad12

                  the trouble with that little stab of the knitting needle Alien is that InternetMana have the stated intention of being rid of Slippery and this National Government,

                  And Winston???, IF what Ron Marks has been reported as saying today, Winston has been far from honest with His ”no deals till after the vote” shiftyness,

                  Therein lies the rub, a vote for InternetMana is 100% anti-National/ACT, a vote for NZFirst tho is a 50/50 proposition either way,

                  The only reason anyone who has the ability for critical thinking would vote for the 50/50 proposition is if they also had a morbid desire to always be on the winning side…

                • “Like Hone did with the mp”

                  Doesn’t even make sense allen – has Hone coalesced with the gnats – no, will he – no. The stated aim of MANA is to get rid of the gnats.

                • Chooky

                  @The Allen +100 …agreed!

                  … Hone and the Maori Party did NOT coalesce…just as Winnie and National under Bolger/Shipley did NOT coalesce!

                  …Good analogy!

                  • The Al1en

                    “…Good analogy!”

                    Thanks. 😉 But I guess it’s in the reading of the word, it’s useage and it’s intended meaning by pu.

                    “come together to form one mass or whole. combine (elements) in a mass or whole.
                    synonyms: unite, join together, combine, merge, fuse, mingle, meld, blend, intermingle, knit (together), amalgamate, consolidate, integrate, affiliate, link up, homogenize, synthesize, converge”

                    “has Hone coalesced with the gnats – no, will he – no. The stated aim of MANA is to get rid of the gnats.”

                    Though he has helped prop up a Key government, which I believe to this date Winston hasn’t, but sure, even hone wouldn’t do that to his voter base again.

              • disturbed

                Phillip, your’e a fool and a blind one at that.

            • Chooky

              they are not rivals at all!…different age spectrum groups and concerns…Winston is just pandering to the right of his potential constituency vote ( blue rinse Nats)…but come the final result he will work with both the Greens and Mana/Int in order to form a Labour Left Coalition Government …anything else would be a complete betrayal of his anti-Neolib stance and what he stands for… and it would be political suicide

              …in any case i think Mana/Int have said they will support a Labour Govt but don’t necessarily want to be in caucus

        • Clemgeopin

          And with Collins and her family in tow too!

  13. JJ 13

    Thank you

    David is safe

    National voters are reminded how important it is to get out and vote

    National will be celebrating!!!!!!

    • swordfish 13.1

      Well, if the National Party celebrates every time it plunges 5 points in the polls then here’s hoping they get to party hard for the next couple of months.

  14. AN 14

    I will be voting Labour because of their animal welfare policies- particularly the one to ban factory farming by 2017. I wasn’t planning to vote Labour until they released that policy. People like me could well be a decent percentage of the population and could account for quite a lot of the swing in vote. Lots of people will pay more for freedom farmed eggs and other products because animal welfare matters to them, so maybe those same people will take those issues into account when they vote as well. Good call by Labour.

    • Chooky 14.1

      @ AN …yes good animal welfare policy moves on Labour’s part

      ‘Labour Commits To An End To Factory Farming’

      By Jessie Hume / July 31, 2014

      For the first time in New Zealand history all of the left-wing parties and the major animal advocacy organisations spoke out in unison. Labour, the Greens, the SPCA and SAFE stood side-by-side and powerfully echoed the sentiment of thousands of Kiwis. The message is clear; factory farming isn’t our future….

      • Belladonna 14.1.1

        I am still undecided as to whether to vote Labour or Greens but the factory farming stance by Labour would tend to point me in the direction of Labour. They still need to do something positive for beneficiaries though before they get my vote.

    • Clemgeopin 14.2

      Good on you. I am voting Labour primarily on their better New Zealand policies.

  15. Tanz 15

    You have not factored in the CC factor. He will do well on the day, as will Winston Peters. There will be lots of no votes, and this will not bode well for the left.

  16. lurgee 16

    It’s a Roy Morgan poll. The next one will show everything going 5% the other way, and there will be desair and gnashing of teeth and suggestions that the polls are fixed and the media should not be commenting on them. Then the next one after that will be like the current one, and everything will be HALLELUJAH and celebration and demands for the ‘MSM’ to cover the polls more.

    • blue leopard 16.1

      Sacre bleu! What a cynic!… 😯

      +1 I say this is a fair prediction you put forward…

    • Te Reo Putake 16.2

      Your probably correct lurgee, but that’s a reflection of how good RM is. It does seem to accurately reflect the mood swings of the electorate. As opposed to the Herald/TV3/TVNZ ones merely reflecting the mood swings of the Prime Minister.

    • bad12 16.3

      You have a point lurgee, of interest graph the years Roy Morgan’s compressing the time-line and ascribing 50mm to each 5% of movement both up and down,

      The graph then looks like the richter scale did during the Christchurch earthquakes, i find Roy’s swings as bizarre as i find the New Zealand media paid for polls giving National well over 50% of the vote despite everyone admitting that the numbers are not going to happen on election day and those polls history showing what the ‘true’ picture for National is likely to be on election day,

      Why not talk up our side of the fence off of a good looking poll, hell the right along with the mass media batter the whole population with the Govern alone bullshit even tho all that media know it just aint going to happen,

      Confidence and humor is worth votes in September, why do you think the media polls spread their lies, for shits and giggles perhaps, they are trying to create a perception either to drag the glum over to their side of that fence or drive them off into did not vote land in despondency,

      This isn’t to hard an ask in September, NZFirst 4.5%, Labour 33%, Greens 12%, InternetMana 5%, that says bye bye National/ACT…

  17. Too Much Carbon 17

    Interest rate hikes are a real killer for incumbents. Of course Key will claim fiscal responsibility keeps rates down (despite there being no evidence), but it will be hard to explain to mortgage holders why they will be better off paying higher mortgages.

  18. miravox 18

    That -7.5% change in confidence rating has got to be a bit of a worry for NAct.

    • mickysavage 18.1

      Yep that is the killer feature of this poll. When confidence drains away support for the Government follows.

  19. Ennui 19

    Excellent news for the morale. There is only one poll that counts; that is on the day. Keep on working spreading the word Standardistas.

  20. tricledrown 20

    Brain Fade Key is lying about not knowing about Kim Dotcom!
    Remember when Brain Fade Key was reassuring us that more invasive spying legislation wasn,t going to affect ordinary New Zilanders,
    Brain Fade Keys own Words were that he knew every body on the list of who was being spied on as he was head of the SIS!
    Right there is the proof Brain Fade Key is LYING!

  21. disturbed 21

    Hey trickledown, – Is this also familiar too.

    Question to key, – are you concerned about the Crafer farms sale?

    “Oh we don’t want to see you all as tenants in your own land” Key 2012.
    His words are not worth the paper their written on if you can find any before he shreds all the evidence and boards that last flight outa here.
    Leave at your own free will shyster.

  22. CeeH 22

    Will never give up on Labour – it’s the right party for the people. The polls are encouraging and now curious to see what next is going to come against Labour. Thanks to the standard especially micky savage – when disheartened I come here for a pick me up and have always noticed your support, and to all the Labour people and supporters who work hard and make sacrifice to make it a fairer nz for all. Much appreciated.

    • Clemgeopin 22.1

      My sentiments exactly. I want a strong, well supported Labour party which is not put under excessive disproportional demands and unfair power wielded by the smaller parties with limited public support which can sometimes lead to extremist type of programmes like the Charter schools of the present government. Sure, policies that are broadly acceptable by all or most members of the progressive parties, including Labour, and favourably accepted by the public are welcome. Extreme/controversial/difficult policies and programmes are not welcome until the general public are made well aware of the issues and are supportive. Otherwise, both Labour as well as the other progressive parties will be resented by the general public and will get thrown out at the next election. What is so good about that then!

  23. Grumpy 23

    Seems to me that the Labour vote has come back from the Greens and that the National vote has gone to “undecided”. The Greens seem to be bleeding voters to Mana – Internet and to Labour.

    • felix 23.1

      Those things can’t all be true Grumpy. Greens down 3, iM up 2. Only leaves 1% moving from Green to Lab if your theory is correct re Green to iM.

      So if you’re right about the Greens bleeding to iM, then National must be bleeding to Labour.

      • grumpy 23.1.1

        Nope, reckon National has lost votes to “undecided”. Anyway, plenty more polls coming that are historically more reliable than Roy Morgan.

        • swordfish

          Quite right, Grumpers.

          National Down 5 points

          Undecideds Up 1 point

          So, incredibly astute of you to suggest that “the National vote has gone to “undecided””
          Very much on a par with your understanding of Israel’s current massacre of the Palestinians.

        • ScottGN

          Which ones might those be grumpy? Colmar Brunton? Ipsos Faifax? Reid TV3? They all over estimated National’s support at the last election. In fact, if I recall, Roy Morgan came closest to predicting the outcome of the election.

    • disturbed 23.2

      Grumpy, as a Nat’ you have reason to be grumpy as Key is since he was absent again as a no show in Parliament yesterday did you know?

      He was panicking & packing his bags after the shock poll results.

      You are obviously a product of the Key financial market fraternity using that term “come back”
      Turn on CNBC, how many times do you hear “come back”?

      I just did and the first minute they said it six times.

      Don’t give us these clues you are a stock broker mate of Key’s!
      as you use those terms: ‘come back’
      “Seems to me that the Labour vote has come back from the Green “

    • lurgee 23.3

      I think you are reading for too much into it. these ‘changes’ are likely just sample variation and nothing much has really changed at all.

  24. TightyRighty 24

    It’s rather erroneous. Calling cellphones when we don’t know the cellphone number methodology used will almost certainly result in a labour uptick. What’s the geographical spread of the these cell phone owners? Are they pre pay? Are they all in mangere?

    The only reason the left loves cell phone polls is not because they result in more accurate numbers, it’s because it gives be left a greater chance of gaining in the polls and therefore the minds if the voters. Dishonest is what that is

    • Lanthanide 24.1

      “Calling cellphones when we don’t know the cellphone number methodology used will almost certainly result in a labour uptick. ”

      When Roy Morgan polled my on my cellphone at the start of the year, I asked them how they got it. They said they do random calling of cellphone numbers, and then ask for your postal area code to be sure they get even geographic coverage of the country. And it’s true, because the first question they asked me after asking if I’d like to do a survey, was my postcode.

      So there you go.

  25. disturbed 25

    Clear signs here on the last piece of this string the Nat’s are worried.

    As they thrash around still clinging onto the side of the sinking key boat they are attached so fondly to.

    The insecurity emanating from this frantic talk is oozing from them with worries as to “what is causing the slide in Planetkeyism”?

    Words like dodgy Cellphone number metrology and words of erroneous cellphone calling!

    Get over it losers, just wait till the real polling on the night of the election and don’t have a heart attack now!

  26. Joronda 26

    Big worry is the $4billion per year capital gains tax and carbon taxes that Labour/Greens want to hit NZ with. Labour’s promises add up to $16.5billion so far, and farmers will have $4billion lower incomes in 2015. Govt tax revenue will be down sharply in 2015, so Labour promises won’t be kept.

  27. marious 27

    Looks like Nationals may be on the ropes to me judging from some of the comments here from their supporters. More interested in real policy put up than why the oppositions policy is no good.
    When policies are put on the table most of us can work out the differences.

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