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Latest TV3 poll

Written By: - Date published: 6:05 pm, February 2nd, 2014 - 121 comments
Categories: polls - Tags: ,

patrick gower squareThis is a poll that Paddy Gower described as being a “Gamechanger”.

Labour is up 1.3% to 33.5%

National is down 1.8% to 44.5%.

The Greens are up 2% to 12.4%.

NZ First is at 5.7%.  Winston will be pleased.  No wonder Key is cuddling up to him.

And the Conservatives are down to 2.1% and ACT and UF are both on 0.0%, yes you read this right.

Of course this is only one poll and the only one that counts is held on election day but this is going to be a very keenly fought election.

121 comments on “Latest TV3 poll ”

  1. Mr Tank 1

    Too early to give a damn…

  2. weka 2

    Did they say anything about Mana and the mP micky?

    Can’t find it online yet, does tv3 normally publish there as well?

  3. North 3

    Ha Ha Ha Ho Ho Ho. Not only has the emperor lost ALL his clothes looks like he’s getting his arse kicked bad. 39% ! Latest advice from Crosby Textor: Forget Smile And Wave On With Bile And Rave. Now we’re really gonna see what a man John Key is not. And don’t forget, we’ve got KDC later on this year. Key is toast.

  4. JK 4

    There HAD to be a reason (other than sheer nastiness and pettiness) for all the personal attacks on David Cunliffe and Metiria Turei ! This must be it …….. so those State of the Nation speeches had an impact, after all. Wowee ………..

    • Anne 4.1

      Now we know why the bully girls went for Metiria Turei. They see her as the weaker of the Green co-leaders – cos she’s Maori and a woman. Have a great laugh Metiria.

      A word of caution. Don’t write off ACT.

      Boscawen is throwing a tanty and threatening to walk from the Party. He’ll take his money with him of course but no worries. Alan Gibbs is back in the team . Yes, the fellow of the many, many millions will throw his weight behind the new leader and the Epsom candidate. That is why they won. Money is the only thing that talks in ACT and I understand they were his choice of candidates.

      Just as he did in the mid 1990s he’ll pour a million or two into the campaign. Once again his word will be law. In 1996 he forced Roger Douglas (who, at that time still had a smidgen of a social conscience) to cancel a policy that was going to be more generous to those who fell through the cracks. Gibbs did so on the grounds it was “socialism at its worst” and by implication – evil. He’ll buy ACT’s representation in parliament just as he did nearly 20 years ago. The primary motivation is exactly the same. Get the National Party back into power.

      • Anne 4.1.1

        Correction: Gibbs will try to buy Act’s representation in parliament. It might not work this time.

      • JK 4.1.2

        Not 1996, Anne – Labour was out by then. Are you talking about 1986 ?

        • Anne 4.1.2.1

          @JK

          I’m talking about the 1996 election which saw ACT enter parliament for the first time with 5 MPs. It was also the first MMP election and the intention was to provide National with a coalition partner. A number of very wealthy businessmen were involved at the outset but Alan Gibbs was the prime mover and financial contributor. Roger Douglas and Derek Quigley were the first joint leaders of ACT.

      • Tracey 4.1.3

        Which is why a board and not the members choose the leader and mps.

        Business before democracy

  5. David H 5

    Paddy (I make shit up) Gower must be spitting tacks over this.

    • rhinocrates 5.1

      Judging by his expression in the photo, you should replace the “p” in “spitting”.

  6. newsense 6

    so the movement of the poll is within the margin of error and nothing has really changed that both the left and the right blocks are unable to govern on their own and would need the Maori Party or NZF, which has been something that has been known for a while.

  7. ianmac 7

    The only significance to me is that TV 3 Reid is usually leaning in National’s way. But otherwise this is confirming the other Poll trend.

  8. gobsmacked 8

    Key can’t win just by gifting electorates and insulting voters with fake-Nat candidates from non-existent parties. He needs somebody else, and that means Winston.

    If there’s anybody out there who didn’t know that already, they really haven’t been paying attention.

    So it’s not a gamechanger, it’s the game we all understood. Zzzzzzz.

    For Labour and the Greens the goal is the same as always – to get to 61 without Winston. The rest is babble, really.

    • weka 8.1

      “For Labour and the Greens the goal is the same as always – to get to 61 without Winston. The rest is babble, really.”

      +1

      And Mana.

      Sorry to be pedantic, but they need 51% (not 61 MPs). The overhang is going to be an issue again this election. What will the Maori vote do? Epsom? Ohariu?

      • ScottGN 8.1.1

        I agree weka. The overhang is an issue. But mostly it’s an issue for National insofar as there is no point them supporting either ACT or Dunne since on this poll they are polling zero and so providing 2 seats of the overhang if they win their seats. Surely it’s far better for National to cut them loose, win the seats themselves and have the same number of seats (on the right) but with 2 less on the overhang (thus making a majority easier to achieve, though it will be easier for the left too). When/if Key makes that announcement will tell us a lot about how National thinks this election could pan out.

        • Bearded Git 8.1.1.1

          You are both (Scott/Weka) ignoring the wasted vote which could be anything between 1% to 6% depending on whether NZF cross the 5% threshold

          • ScottGN 8.1.1.1.1

            Golly calculating the wasted vote affect puts me in a place where my rudimentary math is going to fail me for sure. But suffice it to say that the wasted vote total would have to be pretty high for it to act against the actual vote of ACT and Dunne (in this poll effectively zero) and deliver them their seat without increasing the overhang and therefore make them relevant to National.

            • Shazzadude 8.1.1.1.1.1

              Wasted vote over the years:

              2011: 3.37%

              2008: 6.55%

              2005: 1.3%

              2002: 4.89%

              The lowest figure of that lot (1.3%) would still be enough to cover two single seat parties.

              If both New Zealand First and the Conservatives make it in, the wasted vote will be low. If one of them fails to make it in, it’ll be sizeable, and if both miss out it will be hugely significant.

      • Lanthanide 8.1.2

        Vote percentage doesn’t matter.

        The core right-wing parties in the current government won less vote % than the left-wing parties, yet they won the seats so they’re in power.

        • felix 8.1.2.1

          Err what? Seats are allocated according to vote percentage.

          • Lanthanide 8.1.2.1.1

            In which case we should now have a left-wing government because the left-wing got a higher percentage of the vote than the right-wing did. Yet the right-wing won more seats.

            • felix 8.1.2.1.1.1

              You’re describing a FPP system with two hypothetical parties called “left” and “right”.

              That’s not how our system works at all.

              • Lanthanide

                While you have a valid point, you’re not really addressing what I’m actually saying at all.

                Weka said the seats don’t matter, the vote percentage does. The vote percentage has a large influencing factor on the number of seats won, but it is the seats that are won that form the government.

                Therefore, if truly the seats didn’t matter, but the vote percentage did, as weka claimed, we would not right now have a right-wing government.

                • Te Reo Putake

                  Can you give an example or two of what you mean, Lanthanide? My understanding is that the total number of seats allocated to each party closely matches their party vote. ie 10% vote equals 10% of 120 seats.

                  ps, the current Government won just over 50% of the party vote and have just over 50% of the seats.

                • weka

                  “Weka said the seats don’t matter, the vote percentage does”

                  No I didn’t. I said count the seats by % not number. No point in getting 61 seats in a parliament of 125 seats. You want 51% of the seats.

            • Francis 8.1.2.1.1.2

              I’m not sure you could say “left-wing” got a higher percentage than “right-wing”, since the Conservatives definitely are not left-wing and NZ First isn’t really left-wing (they’re generally left on economic issues, right on social issues). “Government” and “Opposition” would be more accurate.

      • alwyn 8.1.3

        @weka

        With enough overhang seats it is possible to be unable to get a majority in the House even if you were to get 51% of the vote.
        If all votes were to count 51% of the vote entitles you to 61 seats. On the numbers people are talking about in this poll it is possible that there could be 125 seats in the house.
        The only rule is that you need a majority of the voting members of the house in a supply or confidence motion.

        On the other hand, as you say, “Sorry to be pedantic”

        • weka 8.1.3.1

          Yes, that was my point exactly. Count the % of the seats, not the number. See my comment above.

  9. bad12 9

    What cannot be discounted is that ACT are likely to have 1 MP in the next Parliament, the stupidity of the Reid-Poll and the TV3 narrative around this poll is that Reid interviewed 1000 respondents,

    Pretty pointless to gauge ACTS chances on, the only way to get a good look at ACTS chances would be to get the view of 1000 Epsom residents who intend to vote…

    • Lanthanide 9.1

      Sadly for the TV polls in particular, they’re forced to pretend the stats they got are “genuine” and aren’t allowed to pick holes in them. There were a couple of highly aberrant polls last year, eg cases where TV3 said the opposite of TV1 in terms of National’s vote (TV3 said up to over 50, TV1 said down to low 40s) but each station acted like they had the real truth for the polling.

      This is because each station wants to portray itself as the most accurate and trustworthy source of news, so they can’t possible discuss other/recent polling results, only compare to their previous one, and pretend that whatever it says is what would play out on the day, eg if a party gets 4.9% they act as if it definitely won’t get 5% on election day and do all their number-running and fancy seat graphics with them picking up 0 seats. Then they also assume minor parties hold all of their electorate seats, without offering any plausible explanations as to why.

  10. Will@Welly 10

    What I like is that it is confirming what we’ve known for a while, and that the greater denier has been trying to hide from the New Zealand electorate – National could be rolled !!

    • srylands 10.1

      “National could be rolled !!”

      Yes it could be. And it is a long way to the election. But it is looking much LESS likely that National will be rolled compared to say 6 months ago.

      The Greens are likely to get 10%, losing some of the young and confused to Kim.com.

      Labour are likely to flat line at 33%.

      ACT is probably going to get 2 MPs as it attracts back voters like me who deserted ACT wrecked by Brash and then the idiot Banks.

      So yes the Left might still prevail but I doubt this is where you would want to be 6 months following Cunners taking over. The next couple of Labour policy announcements will need to be blinders and they will need to convince swinging voters that there is some plan beyond redistributing and spending other people’s money. Where are the growth policies?

      • gobsmacked 10.1.1

        Who would ACT attract back those voters like you from?

        Think about it …

        (And I’m really looking forward to Jamie Whyte renouncing his previous statements … or Key endorsing them!)

      • Skinny 10.1.2

        Shrilland the big fat 0 for ACT must have you lot worried!

        Don’t worry we have some kick arse policies to come, Key-National are already looking bad copying Labours ones. Oh the pain of having to concede to socialistic policy. Me too is too late!

      • felix 10.1.3

        “…as it attracts back voters like me who deserted ACT…”

        Nah, only NZ citizens and permanent residents can enroll to vote here.

        Also, what gobsmacked said. Obvious to anyone familiar with NZ society.

        • alwyn 10.1.3.1

          Do you have good reason to believe that srylands is not a New Zealand citizen, or lives overseas for that matter?
          Unfortunately we allow New Zealand citizens to vote even if they are living overseas. We also allow permanent resident aliens to vote. Both are a mistake in my personal opinion.
          Only citizens who live here should be allowed to vote.
          In a similar vein I think MPs should have to be exclusively New Zealand citizens. Dual citizenship should not be allowed.

          • Hayden 10.1.3.1.1

            Well, there’s this thread where he says so himself, trying to justify not knowing the rate of GST in New Zealand.

            He also appears to be Googling “places where poor people live” in order to insult people.

            • alwyn 10.1.3.1.1.1

              That is definitely pretty good evidence for living in Australia.
              Unfortunately we still allow people living overseas to vote so if they are a NZ citizen or permanent resident.
              I refused to when I lived in Australia, even though I still had to do NZ tax returns because I owned property here and regularly visited. I didn’t think I should be allowed to vote though.

              • McFlock

                Still, most Australian residents are not eligible to vote in NZ elections.

                • alwyn

                  Are you meaning this in quite such a general manner as it reads?
                  Do you mean all 23 million residents or just the ones who are New Zealand citizens?
                  If you mean New Zealand citizens I think it would be a very large proportion who could do so. You only have to have been in New Zealand, and there is no minimum stay, once within the last three years. I know several who have lived in Australia for more than forty years and who qualify as they come back to NZ to visit family every couple of years.

                  • McFlock

                    That’s super.

                    What’s your objective? Definitive proof that someone using a pseudonym is or is not a NZ voter? Good luck with that.

                    But the odds would seem to be against it.

          • Flip 10.1.3.1.2

            Why are people who are not NZ citizens allowed a vote? Seems a bit odd to me.

            • felix 10.1.3.1.2.1

              NZ citizen or permanent resident seems to be the law.

              On the face of it I don’t have a problem with PRs having a vote. They’re a permanent part of our society after all.

              Also on the face of it I sort of agree with alwyn when he says citizens should actually be living here to vote.

              • Colonial Viper

                An Australian citizen who has lived in NZ for more than 3 years (or is it 4) is allowed to register in NZ and vote AFAIK. It’s a weird quirk I know.

                • alwyn

                  I am not a lawyer so take this with a large grain of salt.
                  As I read it, an Australian who shifts here is granted a residence visa automatically.
                  After living here for two years you can apply for a permanent resident visa.
                  You are then entitled to vote.
                  It appears to me, from that, that an Australian gets the right to vote, without taking out citizenship, after two years.
                  Nb. Please read the first sentence again.
                  Personally I would limit voting to resident citizens.

                  • Colonial Viper

                    Hmmm thanks, Alwyn.

                  • srylands

                    That is all correct, except there is no provision for applying for permanent resident visa after 2 years. Australians are granted an EXEMPTION from a visa on arrival. After 2 years you just certify that you have been here for 2 years and then you can vote.

      • bad12 10.1.4

        Lolz SSLands, i can well imagine ACT attracting back 1% of the voters along with winning the Epsom seat in election 2014,

        Only hardened ‘wing-nuts’ are going to cast a Party vote for ACT and that 1% will have to be coming from National,

        Yes go on SSLands help ACT to the giddy heights of 1% that just might be the difference in who forms the next Government…

        • srylands 10.1.4.1

          I have no idea what the hell a wing nut is.

          Bad12 I can see you voting ACT in the 2017 election. You are a libertarian at heart.

          Act will get 2.4% at least in the 2014 election. That will come from some of the 800,000 “missing” voters. Hell even some greens are free thinkers.

          • bad12 10.1.4.1.1

            SSLands, you have no idea what a ‘wing-nut’ is, look in the next mirror you see, and, behold the epitome of the classic ‘wing-nut’ will be revealed to you…

    • Will@Welly 10.2

      ssl. – I said “could” for a very good reason. John Key & co, have yet to pull out their real bag of dirty tricks – spin, lies and b.s. – that we know every National Government likes to pull out at every election. In Germany, they’re revealing the “secret diaries” of Himmler, one day the secret diaries of National will come out. No so much as a pot-boiler, as a book of filth.

  11. Yossarian 11

    The Polls? Does it really matter?
    National will never let them into the country!

  12. cricklewood 12

    So basically it will likely come down to who Winston goes with as lab green and the nats are fairly similar in terms of voting block.
    That makes the next govt anyones guess…

    • Bearded Git 12.1

      But Crick, Gower said on tv3 tonight that Winston “hates” Key, who tried to destroy him in 2008. He is right-watch the body language and banter in parliament.

      Winnie will go with clever Cunliffe not sneaky Key.

      • One Anonymous Knucklehead 12.1.1

        That’s an easy nut for National to crack then. When Key goes back home to Hawaii they can get a leader Winston likes 😈

      • alwyn 12.1.2

        Winston will go with the party that will give him.
        1. A major portfolio, reflecting his position as the head of the second, not third, biggest party in the Government.
        2. A knighthood before the end of the term.

        Now which one will that be?
        By the way who is this “clever” Cunliffe you mention? It clearly isn’t David, so am I take it that his cousin, (COS is he?) is the smart one in the family.

        • One Anonymous Knucklehead 12.1.2.1

          You missed 3. John Key on a plane to Hawaii.

          • alwyn 12.1.2.1.1

            I don’t think Winston has nearly that much, (I was going to say integrity but that word doesn’t go with the man) consistency to allow little things like revenge to get in his way.

            After all Jim Bolger kicked him out of the Cabinet in 1991, and effectively the National Party in 1992 when they wouldn’t let him be nominated again in Tauranga, but that didn’t stop him getting all chummy again with Bolger in 1996.

            No for Winston the baubles of office far override his pride and his pride makes him want to be “Sir” Winston. He won’t give that up, and sit in third place in the Government pecking order just to get utu on Key.

            • Tracey 12.1.2.1.1.1

              Your last paragraph could describe key.

              • alwyn

                My last comment could describe almost EVERY politician in Parliament, both in the present and in the past.
                You remember of course how Helen Clark took away the title Sir or Dame? When Key formed a Government they gave the recipients of titles that had allowed the use of those titles to choose whether they wanted to use them. 72 out of the 85 people concerned chose to take the title. Of the 13 who didn’t 2 were already using the title from an earliar award of that right.
                You will note that people like Cullen grabbed the title as fast as he could.
                You may also remember that anti-royalist as she might claim to be Helen Clark still insists on being referred to as “The Right Honourable”. None of the commoner touch for her.

                • Tracey

                  The title system us sanctimonious crap. Those who get the lowest awards do the most for nothing.

                  The type of people being offered knighthoods have been well compensated for their achievement and have sacrificed very little until they had heaps to give away. The opposite is true of those at the bottom.

                  • alwyn

                    Hey this is the second occasion in about ten minutes that I whole-heartedly agree with you.
                    The only advantage I have ever heard for the honours system is that, compared to the US, it is a much easier way to reward people who donate to your party. In the US you have to make them an Ambassador to somewhere.

            • One Anonymous Knucklehead 12.1.2.1.1.2

              Yes that’s right Alwyn. Your pointless and self-serving speculation = good, mine = bad. Glad you could clear that up for me.

  13. Skinny 13

    Your a top man Paddy G that little chat we had last week must have got you pondering on your next big hit. Hearing the headline on TV3 6pm news was music to my ears…”Looks like National could be thrown out of office.”

    Like I said on here the other day, you work with the media to get a desired result. I’ll buy you a beer Paddy G you earned it cobber!

  14. Yossarian 14

    On Very Latest Private Polls.
    Greens have increased by an xtra 0.0009 %!
    This is apprently due to fact.
    Although Gower was caught off guard having a pee. (It could have been worse according to some sources)
    Allegedly unlike Paula “Griswelda” Bennett, he was not tempted to drink it to try and improve her looks & charming charisma.

  15. Clemgeopin 15

    One thing is clear : National is nothing without Key. It is evident even in this poll where Key’s popularity has dropped by 1.9%. Guess by how much the National party support has dropped? 1.9% too!

  16. Yossarian 16

    Thing about Polls you can extrapulate whatever you like or dont from them.
    Like,
    The Greens increase/decrease of 2 per cent is due to “even more fringe policies” for the upcoming manifesto.
    The percentage decrease of Nationals vote by 2-3 per cent is due to Keys bald patch showing and his golf swing not being up to scratch in Hawaii plus not manging to get a Selfie of him & Barack at Mandelas funeral.
    The upswing of 2 per cent of vote for Labour is due to Cunliffes stunning new hair cut, having his teeth whitened & apprently he puts the toilet lid down after use & washes his hands.
    And so it goes on and on..
    A Poll is needed on the Standard site? 7/10 Contributors agree on a swing sample size of 10. Twaddle!

  17. Yossarian 17

    Latest Standard Poll Results.
    For Talking Poltical Common Sense:
    Mickey Savage + 8.75%
    Karol -7.5%
    KJT +3%
    Other Authors + 0.9%
    This Poll has a plus/minus swing biase of 0.5 per cent.

  18. Conquestored 18

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/justin-trudeau-removes-senators-from-liberal-caucus-1.2515273 Just a thought, but Justin Trudeau has a point by making Labour senators independent and no longer allowing them to receive donations from the public ensuring against forms of corruption. The transparency act is also further assurance against past allegations, supportive of actions, and instills more corruption prevention.

    If Labour wants to win, maybe Cunliffe should follow the example set by those around us and be assertive in taking action to make changes to the government itself to gain the trust of people. After all the only explanation the Conservative party could come up with afterwards was that it was a smoke screen yet had no facts to base their claims on (sounds a lot like National’s dodging, as always…), but people have lost faith in their governments. This move along with a statement as to why members of Labour caucus would be made independent might be the factor that could win Labour the elections by a large margin as well as make a direct attack on National’s past member selections.

    • alwyn 18.1

      What is the point of this comment?
      It is the Canadian Liberal, not Labour Party.
      New Zealand doesn’t have any Upper House and there are therefore no senators to kick out of the caucus. We got rid of our Upper House, the equivalent of the Canadian Senate, in January 1951.

  19. JasonJ 19

    Poll ignores people who don’t own phones so not representative sample. Wait till election night.

    • Lanthanide 19.1

      You’re practically never going to get a “representative” sample, not with the budget these polling places run on.

  20. dave 20

    I beleave labour is closer to national than the polls are showing nationals vote is always over stated and labour understated chip away that’s all we have to do half percent here percent there good night john key!

  21. Bovver 21

    Wrong Dave last election it was N 47% L 27% so if anything the polls are understating National, also it’s believe not beleave

  22. tricledrown 22

    Seryaliar.
    Geeze you Bumptious Midden and Hooootonn
    Are all the Motivation we need.
    Rush limbaaaaaaas of the south seas!

  23. Shazzadude 23

    I think the election result is going to be something like:

    National 41%
    Labour 35%
    Greens 10%
    NZF 6%
    Conservatives 3%
    Mana 1.5%
    Maori Party 1%
    ACT 0.7% and Epsom

  24. SHG (not Colonial Viper) 24

    Too far out, meaningless as an election predictor.

  25. Whatever next 25

    Noted that Gower’s focus was completely on Winston, no mention of Labour increasing popularity, National’s star waning.
    Great spin, like a pimp for a prostitute, wearing high heels and glitter. Might be tempting for some who are: out for themselves, have the money to throw away, a bit drunk, and easily aroused by quick, one way relationships, which are not sustainable.

    • alwyn 25.1

      Of course the Labour popularity had risen since the last poll. The bulk of this polling was done before Cunliffe reappeared from his Christmas hibernation and that dreadfully fouled up speech of his.

      People had had time to forget just how bad he really was.

      I suspect the next poll they run will reflect the fact that he hasn’t been out of sight, and out of mind and will reflect people’s informed opinion of him.

  26. tricledrown 26

    Nactional have some big hurdles before the election.
    Genesis John Banks trial KDC.
    Key will need more than a flag waving distraction.

    • McFlock 26.1

      well, their opening salvos were aimed at individuals. I suspect in a few months they’ll just make shit up as policy broadsides and hope that key can bluster through the election.

    • Mike S 26.2

      +1

      Wait until Kim pulls a huge one out of the bag at his extradition hearing. Anyone want to bet against him having evidence regarding Key’s knowledge of him?

  27. MaxFletcher 27

    I’m thinking this election is going to be extremely tight. It’s both parties election to lose at this stage.

    Good to see ACT and UF dead in the water and my personal feeling is The Internet Party will gain no traction particularly given Martyn Bradbury appears to have cocked up the launch

    • Tracey 27.1

      Why do you think act and dunne will lose their seats?

      • McFlock 27.1.1

        dunne won’t, and I’ve given up hope that epsom nats will find some shred of self respect.

        • Tracey 27.1.1.1

          They consider themselves too clever by far to need self respect.

          They were all nodding in agreement with paul henry over their sunday Apers that only people intelligent enough to vote for who paul henry wants should get to vote.

      • MaxFletcher 27.1.2

        I’m just holding on to hope at this stage…

  28. Adrian 28

    It’s amusing that Gower et al keep putting what remains of the Maori party on the Nat side when Flavell, backed up by Sharples, said last week that they were much more likely to go left or they wouldn’t exist next time.

  29. ScottGN 29

    I reckon that Key’s Preferred PM ranking is the standout of this poll. 39% is getting down there. More evidence that Key era is coming to a close.

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