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Long way down

Written By: - Date published: 8:33 am, July 16th, 2012 - 53 comments
Categories: polls - Tags:

The latest Roy Morgan poll has Labour+Greens neck and neck with National again on 45.5%. The trend is quite clear just looking at the Roy Morgan graphs. National is going down, Labour+Greens is going up. And when you look at the key levels that the two sides have to achieve, the change since the election is dramatic.

For 3 years from the beginning of 2009 to the end of 2011, National went below 48% – the percentage needed to govern alone – only twice (the first two polls). It averaged 52% over those 3 years. In 2012, National has managed to get above 48% only twice  our of 13 polls and is averaging 46%.

Labour+Greens, on the other hand averaged 40% last term and polled above 43% (the amount needed to govern with another possible partner like NZF) only once. This term, they are averaging 44% and have only gone under 43% only 3 times. The Greens are the big success story, they had averaged 8% last term, only getting over 12% for the first time in the final poll. Now, they’re averaging 13% and have gone below 12% only once.

And, yes, that does mean Labour’s average is slightly down this term compared to last, but it is at least up on the disaster of the second half of 2011, and the trend is pretty clear – in fact, the Greens’ growth has stalled in the last three months while Labour’s has kept on going.

The other Roy Morgan metric that will have National’s spin doctors sweating is the right direction/wrong direction number. With a score of 100 meaning the same percentage of people approve of the direction the government is leading the country in as don’t, the current scores are still positive but much much less so than 3 years ago, or even 6 months ago. A full 10% of the population has flipped from ‘right direction’ to ‘wrong direction’ so far this year, which closely tracks the 10% shift from the right parties to thee left parties.

I guess they got tired of waiting for the brighter future.

Morgan poll july 2012

53 comments on “Long way down ”

  1. Jenny 1

    Go the Greens. Labour apologists for climate change claim that people (particularly middle class people), are not concerned about the environment.

    How are they going with that?

    • Colonial Viper 1.1

      Nice spin Jenny.

      Many in the middle classes and upper middle classes ARE concerned with the environment. They donate to Greenpeace and Forest and Bird, and might even be supporters of the Green Party.

      But they’ll still be flying to Bali or Raro this winter, burning av gas all the way. And they’ll still be looking forwards to upgrading to the latest iPhone the moment it is released. And a new Prado would look just right at the ski field. 2% better fuel economy than the old model but with even more grunt, that’s green, right?

      • ad 1.1.1

        If you replaced Bali with Paris and ditched the Prado, I think you just skewered me.

        • Colonial Viper 1.1.1.1

          Hey I know what you mean, I know someone who can get me a brand new Samsung Galaxy III at a steep discount, and have just started planning a nice trip to the US for next year (work and pleasure).

          And I’m definitely concerned for the environment. Those bad inconsiderate corporate farmers.

      • Dr Terry 1.1.2

        Agreed that many of the middle class are far from hurting (enough) yet. When and if Labour gets its act together, who knows what might happen in the polls? Meanwhile, through organisation, enthusiasm, and sheer intelligence, the Greens are deservedly on the rise.

      • Jenny 1.1.3

        Many in the middle classes and upper middle classes ARE concerned with the environment. They donate to Greenpeace and Forest and Bird, and might even be supporters of the Green Party.

        But they’ll still be flying to Bali or Raro this winter, burning av gas all the way. And they’ll still be looking forwards to upgrading to the latest iPhone the moment it is released. And a new Prado would look just right at the ski field. 2% better fuel economy than the old model but with even more grunt, that’s green, right?

        Colonial Viper

        What a gutless effort CV.

        Asking people to make individual lifestyle choices is not dealing with climate change.

        Pointing to people buying Ipads, or taking international flights, as an excuse not to take action is actually the oldest excuse apologists for BAU have used since Climate Change was first brought to public attention in the ’90s.

        The most dangerous source of Greenhouse emissions is coal. As far as I know jets don’t run on coal. To cut back on this most dangerous of fossil fuels will require government legislation.

        The same with air travel, if you think it such a problem. Then again legislative action is required to reflect the real cost of air travel.

        Instead of taking action against climate change, governments of the ’90s indulged in stupid guilt tripping public information campaigns. “Turn off the heater, put on a jersey”, “Drive less, walk more”. etc. etc. ‘It is all your fault’, was the hidden message. All that did was disempower people.

        This sort of apologist bullshit won’t wash anymore. We are sick and tired of the fossil fuel industry and their useful idiots in parliament telling us it is all our fault, as an excuse to continue destroying the environment.

        As individuals we are all pretty powerless to act against climate change. And it is pretty pointless to ask people to cut back on using electricity, when they can see the city skyline ablaze with light every night of week.

        It is also pointless to ask people to use their cars less when there is no public transport to speak of.

        Legislating for more rational electricity use, or to build public transport systems requires public policy.

        Deliberate scapegoating of individuals, or groups you don’t like.

        Complete cop out.

  2. ad 2

    Labour rating at the same rate as 2008 when they first got their ass kicked is no cause for celebration. In fact we need to ask, if Key is so crap and Labour so attractive, why does National still have a 10 point gap above Labour?

    • Bored 2.1

      Well spotted…talking of spots Shearer and Robertson appear to me the lesser spotted variety of Key and cronies. So we the electors to the left are supposed to be wooed back by National Lite (aka Labour).m I think not.

      In case the parliamentary Left had not noticed trying to be “middle of the road” nicer than Nact might work if times were good….they are not. Tough times require tough solutions, and more importantly different solutions. And Labour don’t appear to have the intellect or the balls.

      • Olwyn 2.1.1

        +1. For more than three years, people have been talking up and down poll variations between approximately 28% and 33%. And increasingly, the “top team” of the present parliamentary party seems to exist to prevent social democracy from recurring rather than as an expression of it. Who on earth is going to rush excitedly to South Auckland to drive old ladies to the polling booths for them? Given that, apart from the CGT, their only policy announcements consist in riding herd on the poor rather than representing them, even Nat lite seems a misnomer; more like Nat pure, with earnestness replacing the wide boy antics. To me, the worst possible result of the next election would be the “victory” of a United Future-like Labour Party with 30% or so of the vote, propped up by the rise of Greens.

        • Draco T Bastard 2.1.1.1

          To me, the worst possible result of the next election would be the “victory” of a United Future-like Labour Party with 30% or so of the vote, propped up by the rise of Greens.

          To be honest, the same thought had occurred to me. Labour is a party of the status quo and so won’t make the needed changes to bring NZ to being a better democracy that gives voice to the people. They’ll keep putting the corporations and the rich above the people as they have done for the last thirty years.

    • Labour has a potential coalition partner larger than NZF and UF were during most of the previous Labour governments, so it doesn’t really need to be as popular to overturn the National government. Besides, Labour tends to do better when it’s governing, so it’s likely to get more popular, assuming National doesn’t come up with another stupid, lying meme to plaster accross TV and newspapers before elections.

  3. Jenny 3

    Labour apologists for climate change, rather than take up the challenge, seem keener on putting pressure on the Greens to moderate their policies and keep their mouth shut.

    I am sure that this would bolster Labour’s support, but at the expense of the Greens and it is a ridiculous ask for the Greens to agree to.

    • Bored 3.1

      But Jen, Labour would “manage” so much better……except “managing” the Titanic is a fairly short term and finite activity. Atleast the Greens see the problem (though to some degree deny the iceberg is as large as it really is). labour by comparison only see what was, not what is.

      • Lanthanide 3.1.1

        “Atleast the Greens see the problem (though to some degree deny the iceberg is as large as it really is).”

        I’m not sure that the Green’s deny the iceberg, so much as they don’t publicise it because turkeys generally don’t like voting for Christmas.

    • Te Reo Putake 3.2

      Who are these Labour apologists for climate change that you made up, Jennny? Whoops, answered my own question.

      • Jenny 3.2.1

        Actions speak louder than words Voice. Let us see.

        Under the last Labour government. Huge expansion of risky coal mining for the export industry. $Billions approved for motorway expansion, while public transport starved of funds. Approval for plans to turn lignite into diesel probably one of the most polluting forms of fossil fuel use ever proposed. As looks likely Labour will be approving this sort of climate crime into the future.

        That is unless the Greens stick to their guns and can force some concessions out of Labour as a price for coalition.

        • Te Reo Putake 3.2.1.1

          You do know that the Greens are OK with mining, doncha? Their position is not a million miles removed from Labour. Both want mining regulated, safe and respectful of environment and community. It isn’t likely to be a coalition condition that causes any grief at all.
           
          Still keen to find out who these apologists are. I’d like to have a quiet word with them and show them the error of their ways!

          • weka 3.2.1.1.1

            You do know that the Greens are OK with mining, doncha?

             
            Really? Have a look at the mining page on their website
             
            http://www.greens.org.nz/conservation/mining

            • Te Reo Putake 3.2.1.1.1.1

              Yep, kinda validates what I was saying. As does this bloke.

              • weka

                Nah, that’s just Norman showing his pragmatic, see “it’s safe to vote for us” side. There’s a difference between taking an interim pragmatic approach and being “ok with mining”. Part of Peak Everything is acknowledging that minerals are a finite resource. There are also significant problems with mining for private profit that will contradict the Greens’ economic and environmental policies.

    • Colonial Viper 3.3

      Economic decline driven by peak debt and energy depletion over the next 10-15 years will do more for emissions reductions than Kyoto ever had a chance of.

  4. jcuknz 4

    When I hear Labour/Greens spouting on radio I am left sadly of the opinion I will have to vote National again .. for a second time.

    • ad 4.1

      Seriously, what would change your mind, either from National or Labour?

    • Dr Terry 4.2

      jeuknz, heaven knows what you might get to hear on the radio. Ask Greens to send you their thought provoking materials along with the stimulating policy statements! You appear to be capitulating weakly and meekly.

    • Colonial Viper 4.3

      jcuknz isn’t interested in left wing politics to start with, so the only way he’d vote Labour/Greens would be if they went completely centrist-right.

      • jcuknz 4.3.1

        It is not a question of being interested but having respect for the sense of argument being ventured.

    • Fortran 4.4

      I don’t hear Labour on the Radio.
      But I do hear the Greens all the time – they are very clever at media studies

  5. Te Reo Putake 5

    Interesting discussion between Bryan Gould and Andrew Geddis on Morning report this morning. Both reckoned the polls are worse for National than Roy Morgan suggests, as they are a lagging indicator. Geddis was surprised National weren’t doing worse, given the awful month they’ve had, but Gould was looking at the underlying collapse of National’s support parties as the main indicator of the damage National is doing to it’s re-election chances.
     
    Clearly, both men felt NZ is heading for another ‘Time For a Change’ election result.

    Edit: audio here: http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/morningreport/audio/2525189/national-party-falters-in-latest-poll.asx

    • alwyn 5.1

      You don’t appear to have been listening to the same program as I was.
      Can you tell me how the Bryce Edwards I was listening to morphed into the Andrew Geddis you quote?
      I also take about as much notice of failed political hack Bryan Gould as I would of Ian Wishart.

      • Pascal's bookie 5.1.1

        “I also take about as much notice of failed political hack Bryan Gould as I would of Ian Wishart.”

        That’s an odd comparison.

        Fair enough if you don’t like him. and don’t pay him any attention, but his bio is nothing like Wishart’s:

        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Gould

        It would make more sense to compare him with Brash I suppose.

        But let me guess…

      • Te Reo Putake 5.1.2

        Ha! Yes, Edwards, not Geddis. In my defence, I had consumed only one cup of a coffee at that point, so I wasn’t functioning at 100%. Now that I am fully caffeinated, can I point out your dissing of Gould says more about you than him? Try listening to what he said and comment on that, rather than trying to have a mindless crack at someone whose only failure in politics was falling just short of being elected the leader of the British Labour Party. Since then, Gould has gone on to run Waikato Uni, write a few books and contribute intelligently on the matters of the day in various media. You, on the hand, have done, er what exactly?
         
        Thanks for pointing out my error though. I hate getting things wrong, if it is only once in blue moon ;).

        • Mark 5.1.2.1

          ” Try listening to what he said and comment on that”
          That, TRP, is so hypocritical as to be funny.
          The Standard, where dissenting debate immediately attracts hate from the bully boys.
          Luckily most of NZ remains smart enough to see through the bullshit.

          • ad 5.1.2.1.1

            If you like your debate a little lighter on the evidence base you could always pop over to Whaleoil or Kiwi. Stay if you’re up to it.

          • Te Reo Putake 5.1.2.1.2

            I’m asking Alwyn to play the ball, not the man, and you see that as confirmation of bullying. Nowt so queer as folk.

        • alwyn 5.1.2.2

          You suggest that Bryan Gould’s only failure in politics was “falling just short of being elected leader of the British Labour Party”.
          If his attempt was “just short”, I would hate to see what you would regard as a real failure. For your information he got less than 9% of the votes in that election. There were only 2 candidates and the successful individual got about 91%. Incidentally can you tell me, without looking it up, who his conqueror was?

          • Te Reo Putake 5.1.2.2.1

            Yes I can, though I take it from your 9% figure that you needed the aid of google before finding out. It was inevitable that Smith would win, which should not be cause for mocking Gould for having the guts to stand, when other such as Prescott, Brown and Beckett didn’t.
             
            Still keen to hear how much better your contribution to political life is, alwyn. Or do I have to wait for the biography?

      • Carol 5.1.3

        Bryan Gould UK Labour MP for about 16 years – not bad for a failed political hack.

    • ad 5.2

      The intersection of Maori Waitangi stories with Asset Sales stories will leave quite a bitter taste in the mouths of some who voted National last time. Like some of my South Island rellies. Slow but seismic and irreversible.

      Banks and Act will probably not survive the Police investigation, even if they try to gift them Epsom again.

      Really hard to sell a National victory with such poor employment and economic prospects. It’s Obama’s core struggle.

      Here’s a bet: I think Maori who appear before the Waitangi Tribunal are going to come out shining on the right side of history, and will contribute strongly to Maori observing the Hearings struggling to vote Maori Party.

      Sorry if I sound like I always want more than is possible from Labour. I probably always will. The public I talk to are gradually shifting.

  6. bad12 6

    While i don’t think it is quite the time for ‘the left’ to be declaring victory one only has to look at National’s own little monetarist gambling site to get a sense of where the core support for National actually sits,

    Last time i poked my nose in there National’s share of the % had crumbled to 40% down 7-8% from the election figures which had the ‘Govern alone’ gang trumpeting loudly,

    Tax cuts, the key to the 2nd term of this National Government have now been revealed in the pockets and minds of the voting public as nothing more than the mirage that National with the help of the media organizations intended them to be, tax cuts for the top 40% of earners and an evaporating slice of the tax cut pie for anyone below that level right down to a shift of the burden of taxation upon the shoulders of those who earn the least,

    So,scratch bribery as a reason to vote National in 2014 and Slippery the Prime Minister has little hope of a third term of Government,

    While hardly happy with what looks like a Labour Party Parliamentary wing still enamored of and patting itself on the back for the neo-liberal ism of ‘Rogernomics’ those of us who the Labour Party disenfranchised in 1984 have the luxury under MMP of voting for other party’s…

    • Draco T Bastard 6.1

      tax cuts for the top 40% of earners and an evaporating slice of the tax cut pie for anyone below that level right down to a shift of the burden of taxation upon the shoulders of those who earn the least,

      Although correct overall that “top 40% of earners” should read top 1% of earners.

      • bad12 6.1.1

        No sorry not here,although the top 1% of earners gain the most from Nationals tax cuts on an obscenely upward gradient based upon their position at the top of the food chain it took more than 1% to put National into the seats of Government,

        The top 40% of earners based upon their position on that obscenely upward gradient have also gained significantly from such tax cuts depending whereupon the food chain their economic position put them,

        It may suit the ‘party-line’ to finger point the 1%, but, that’s hardly the whole truth, that 1% are allowed their privlidged position with the tacit support of the other 39% of those who National pander to along with the disgruntled 5% who swing between National and Labour…

  7. jcuknz 7

    bad12 … when I compare what I hear from overseas … the areas of the world on which New Zealand is largely dependant to buy our exports … with what is happening in NZ I really think the left is crying before they have been hurt. National is doing a good job of keeping Kiwis reasonably snug and safe and acting like a socialistic government to the degree its membership can tolerate.

    I think you hot-heads should try living in even a Democrat led country, let alone one ruled by the Elephants and across the Altantic things are no better. Really we do not know how lucky we are over here.

    • Pascal's bookie 7.1

      ” I really think the left is crying before they have been hurt”

      Best time for it. Ounce of prevention being worth what it is, etc.

    • Carol 7.2

      I would love to live in a democratic led country. Can you tell me the best one to migrate to?

    • bad12 7.3

      Yes obviously those on low and fixed incomes should all be falling to their knees chanting ”Hail Slippery” ”Hail National” having received nothing from tax cuts and an increase in GST,and, excise taxes on petrol and tobacco products,

      Distributing tax cuts and tax rises on the basis of the how likely those in the various income brackets are to vote for you is hardly orthodox economics…

    • Colonial Viper 7.4

      National is doing a good job of keeping Kiwis reasonably snug and safe and acting like a socialistic government to the degree its membership can tolerate.

      All National is doing is borrowing $300M a month and using it to buy electoral time to advance the interests of the top 0.1%.

      Sorta dumb, really.

      Now waiting for the asset sales/water stuff to splash right back at them.

    • rosy 7.5

      Don’t let Shonkey fool you jcuknz, some countries on the other side of the Atlantic are in the same position as NZ but dealing with it much more humanely. Personally I think NZ is bloody unlucky to have neo-lib policies at a time when job and wage protection are called for.

    • mike e 7.6

      j whatever Canada next to the US is doing better than the US because its a more socialist country than the US.

    • mike e 7.7

      j clutz whatever Canada next to the US is doing better than the US because its a more socialist country than the US.

  8. jcuknz 8

    Deleted my machine mislead me.

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