- Date published:
7:07 am, November 18th, 2011 - 26 comments
Categories: election 2011, polls - Tags: colmar brunton, herald digipoll, polls, reid research
The major parties poll high between elections. As the election approaches, and minor parties get publicity, the major parties tend to fall and the minors rise. This election is following the same pattern, with both National and Labour down in the two TV polls (though slightly up in The Herald poll, so mixed messages as usual).
The 3 News Reid Reseach poll has National down to its lowest level since it won the 2008 election.
The ONE News Colmar Brunton has Labour down to a ten year low.
The Herald DigiPoll has both main parties up a bit, and NZF on (headline shocker!) 4.9%.
The good news for the Left is that The Herald has National under 50% and both TV polls have them heading down there, and all polls have the Greens steady near or rising fast to 13%. Here are the figures (some taken from here):
One News/Colmar Brunton
National 53% (down 1)
Labour 26% (down 2)
Greens 13% (up 4)
NZ First 2.2% (down 0.7)
Maori 1.6% (down 0.5)
Act 1.6% (up 0.1)
Conservative 1.4% (up 0.9)
Mana 1.3% (up 1.1)
United 0.8% (up 0.5)
Preferred PM: Key 53, Goff 13
3 News/Reid Research
National 50.2% (down 3.1)
Labour 27.4% (down 2.5)
Greens 13% (up 2.8)
NZ First 3.5% (up 1.1)
Act 1.8% (up 1.1)
Maori 1.3% (down 0.1)
Conservative 1.1% (no change)
Mana 1.0% (nc)
Preferred PM: Key 49, Goff 10
National on 49.89 per cent (up 0.4),
Labour 29.1 (up 0.4),
Greens 12.6 (no change),
NZ First 4.9 (up 1.2),
Act 1.7 (up 0.2),
Maori Party 0.7 (up 0.2),
Conservatives 0.6 (down 0.4),
Mana Party 0.4 (down 0.4),
United Future 0.1 (down 0.6)
I would expect the Nats to fall as the bungled and aggressive handling of the teapot tape fiasco has time to impact the polls. It’s going to be an interesting week.
How many MPs would translate from 5% of the vote? It could be significant against the born to rule National.
Why does the Herald poll round every party other than National to one decimal point? Could they not bear to show them at 49.9%?
With a slight rise in support, Mana can bring in three or four MPs. Class warriors like John Minto and Sue Bradford can join Hone and Annette and push NZ politics to the Left. One party vote Mana is worth one hundred party votes Green or Labour. 4 Mana MPs is a prize worth pushing for in the last week of this campaign.
So do you think that Mana won’t get many electorate seats? Because 1.5% of the party vote will only get Mana one seat and they will have that anyway with Harawira. If they get more via the electorate seats then the party vote is in effect wasted.
I wish someone would write something about tactical voting.
Mana’s only real shots are Hone and Annette. Recent polling shows Annette doing very poorly in her electorate, something like 25% to 50% for the Maori Party. Polling could simply be biased, but that’s quite a large difference.
Maori polling is quite volatile. Waiariki in 1999 had Tuariki Delamere leading Mita Ririnui in the landline polls-Mita Ririnui almost doubled Delamere’s vote in the end. Tu Wyllie was also polling ahead for New Zealand First in 1999 in Te Tai Tonga as well-he too was soundly beaten.
That coupled with the MSM’s inattention and inability to report well on Maori politics make it really hard to know what is going to happen. Are the Maori seats not considered important currently because National has such a big lead?
Particulary after the minor party leaders’ debate! Mana will swell – I would expect a 3-4% percent at least. Sort of bad news for Labour though because those votes are unlikely to come from the right…
Maybe Mana’s success will cost the Greens some votes from those he see it heading centrist, but more likely this will contribute to Labour’s worst ever election. Despite teapots.
That is why Mana get my party vote this year..
Hone will win his seat for TeMana.
So If gets 1% of the party vote is that one more MP.
Is 2% another?
Technically speaking the Green party are officially a ‘medium sized’ party. 🙂
Trouble is for Labour is that the Greens are stealing Labours votes. Because unlike Labour they arent hooked on Key Phobia!. The public arent listening to Labour anymore they are sinking into a mire of irrelevance. The Greens are becoming the opposistion party of choice. This will only get worse for Labour as more youth come into the voting system.
I do not think that this has a lot to do with Labour’s policies, or the Green’s new image. Many of the people I have spoken to who are voting Green think that the gap is too wide now for Labour to bridge. So they think that if Labour does manage to raise its vote, then the Greens can go into a coalition with them, while if it does not the Greens will be better placed to curb National’s excesses than a defeated Labour.
Nobody can “steal Labour’s votes”. Every vote Labour gets it has to earn, and if it fails to re-earn some of its previous support, those votes aren’t “stolen”.
The Greens are becoming the opposistion party of choice.
haha! Yeah, the party of choice for those who want a leadership willing to sell you out, simply because he thinks his Blue-Green Minister of Conservation portfolio is slipping from between his fingers.
I heard on Radio Live yesterday that there are 125,000 young people (18-26), not enrolled yet. This is the key problem for those of us that want to see the Greens poll results reflected at the election.
I fear that the same people who are currently saying they would vote Green in an election may not be enrolled. If you know young progressive people ask them if they have enrolled and push them in the right direction.
The Greens need those 125,000 younger voters.
Mana does too.
Labour have played this Election totally wrong!! Their attack the man strategy has gone down like a cold cup of sick with most voters from the Centre. If they had stuck to policy they would have had a much better chance. Who ever was their strategist should fired or otherwise he is a national party person in drag. Remember it was Labour before the campaign who stated that it was all about the Policy ,and not about the Personality. Then they attack the person talk about hypocritical, and sending out mixed messages. We all know from past expiereince that attacking the person is very high risk in Politics. Labour have been very unwise with this flawed tactic. You havent seen norman attacking Key like labour has!!. That is why he has picked up votes. Labour must get over its immature stance of attacking a a successful businessman whether they like him or not. Remember its all about the Policies. Everytime Labour attack Key personally he wins ,and it just looks like envy Politics which doesnt sit well with anyone. By chosing the stance that they have they were only ever going to attract their own hard core voting base which was never enough votes. They were never going to attract the swinging voters or the centre voters as most people cant be bothered with what they are saying, and just think its labour whingeing again. If you go on to much about the same thing people switch off this has clearly happened in this campaign. That is my take on it all
[sprout: note Clark, if you spell your name with a K you get auto-filtered into the spam trap]
Haven’t seen Labour attack the man yet. They’ve pointed out his and Nationals lack of policies and broken promises.
Thank you DTB – Labour has put out so much policy – most of it given only a cursory glance by the media. the economic and finance policies are very detailed. I can’t think of instances of targeting the man – after all why would you want to add to his media profile.
Putting aside who’s likely to make it into Parliament……
Labour + Greens + NZ First + Mana = 47%
National + Act + Maori + Conservatives + United Future = 53%
And this poll was carried out before the full impact of Key’s spectacular own-goal (tea-party).
Woohoo, a hard left government!!!! Woohoo!! Woohoo!! Exactly what we need!! There is simply not enough socialism in NZ; more socialism is the answer. Look at Greece and Italy!!
Woohoo!!! Woohoo!! Bring on the hard left government for prosperity, health and happiness.
Just like the USSR & Cuba had/have.
Greece was governed by the right-wing party New Democracy from 2004-2009 and if you think Berlusconi in Italy is anywhere near a socialist you need to do something about your political education Nick K.
Typical Tory……thick as mince.
You are an idiot. That is all.