Making sense of the (un)employment stats: Census 2013

A Statistics NZ quick stats page on “Work” is both useful and puzzling.

Unemployment has increased from 2006, being back nearer the level in 2001:

Unemployment increased since 2006, but was slightly lower than in 2001. The unemployment rates for the last three censuses were:

* 2013 – 7.1 percent

* 2006 – 5.1 percent

* 2001 – 7.5 percent.

By age group, the statistics for the youngest cohort are very worrying:

Unemployment was higher for the 15–24 year age group than for the labour force overall. In 2013, the unemployment rate for this age group was 18.4 percent.

In 2001 the 15-24 yrs unemployment rate was 17.2%; in 2006, 13.3%

For the 65+ age group, both the employment and unemployment rates have risen:

The percentage of people aged 65 years and over who were employed nearly doubled since 2001. In 2013, 22.1 percent of those aged 65 years and over were employed compared with 11.4 percent in 2001.

But the unemployment rate for the 65+ group was:

2001: 7.5%

2006: 5.1$

2013: 7.1%

Nevertheless, the employment rate for the over 65s has doubled compared with 2001.

It is also necessary to consider the difference between the unemployment rate, and the “labour force” statistics.

The unemployment rate is the number of people aged 15 years and over who did not have a paid job, were available for work, and were actively seeking work, expressed as a percentage of the labour force.

People aged 15 years and over are defined as not in the labour force if they were not employed and were not actively seeking work. This includes students, people caring for children or other family members, retired people, and people who were unable to work for some reason such as illness or disability.

So, amongst those not in the labour force, there are many who are actually unemployed, but have given up on looking for work.  Some are not eligible for benefits because their partners earn above the limit allowed by WINZ.  These will be included in those people who had “zero income” according to the Census. This group increased significantly between 2006 and 2013.

According to the Quick Stats page on employment:

Women made up 60.0 percent of those not in the labour force.

A high proportion of these will most likely be the causalities of Paula Bennett’s punitive war on beneficiaries, which hits large numbers of low income women particularly hard.

Staggeringly, nearly a third of adults are not in the labour force:

Over a million adults (people aged 15 years and over) were not in the labour force in 2013 – up 10.0 percent since 2006. Almost 1 in 3 people (32.9 percent) aged 15 and over were not in the labour force.

The chart of major occupational groups is puzzling, and looks too much of a distortion to be useful:

See the Stats NZ web page for a better view of the graph.

It looks to me like “Professional” would contain a diverse group of people with different amounts of power and status: e.g. a teacher, a lawyer, a corporate CEO.  And how is this group differentiated from ‘Managers”.  It seems to me that there is far more differentiation of the other categories, artificially inflating the “Professionals” as being proportionally dominant.

For instance, “Technicians and trades workers”, plus “Labourers”, plus “machinery operators and personal service workers” make up about 35% of workers.  This compares with about 24% being “Professionals” and about 17% being “Managers”.  Adding the low status, low power “Sales workers” and “Clerical and administrative workers” to the largely manual workers, makes up about 57%.

More telling is the areas in which people are employed:

See the Stats NZ web page for a better view of the graph.

Mining: such a small proportion of our workforce.  Agriculture is not as big an employer as manufacturing. Nevertheless, the manufacturing workforce has declined since 2006. “Information media and telecommunications” has declined slightly.  I would have thought this would be a growth area?  Meanwhile “Financial and insurance services” showed a slight increase”.

What else do the Census statistics show?

Will it take a lot of Nats being made unemployed to get better employment stats and conditions?

[Update] Occupation categories

The “Manager” and “Professionals” categories by stats NZ, can be seen here (h/t ghostwhowalksnz).

Full classifications here.

From the excel sheet, “Managers” include,

Chief Executives, General Managers and Legislators (includes Chief Executives, General Managers and Legislators)

Farmers and Farm Managers (includes Agriculture farmers, Fruit or Nut Grower, Apiarist and more)

Specialist Managers (includes Advertising, Public Relations and Sales Managers; Business Administration Managers; Construction, Distribution and Production Managers; sports administrators)

Hospitality, Retail and Service Managers (includes ; Education, Health and Welfare Services Managers – such as child care centre managers & uni faculty managers; )

“Professionals” include:

Arts and Media Professionals

Business, Human Resource and Marketing Professionals (includes: Accountants, Auditors and Company Secretaries; Financial Brokers and Dealers, and Investment Advisers; Human Resource and Training Professionals; Information and Organisation Professionals; Sales, Marketing and Public Relations Professionals)

Design, Engineering, Science and Transport Professionalas

Education Professionals (includes School Teachers; Tertiary Education Teachers, uni lecturers)

Health Professionals (a load of categories including surgeons, GPs, nurses, midwives, naturopaths….)

ICT Professionals

Legal, Social and Welfare Professionals (includes lawyers, student counsellors, ministers of religion, social workers, historians, interpreters, …

And so it goes – such a broad range of people included in “Professionals” and “Managers” categories.

Powered by WPtouch Mobile Suite for WordPress