The Marae-Digipoll has the political commentators all excited over what has been accepted fact in the blogosphere for some time: the Maori party will win all the Maori seats and will probably be Kingmaker.
The poll shows that Maori voters overwhelmingly favour Maori Party candidates and are evenly split on giving their party vote to the Maori Party or Labour (National, unsurprisingly, barely registers). As they did in 2005, many Maori will vote for a Maori Party candidate and give their party vote to Labour.
Which is not surprising, Maori are clever voters. They know that splitting their vote is the best way to further Maori political interests:
The poll also confirms the Maori Party’s base is of the Left: its voters are former Labour voters and many will split their votes between the Maori Party and Labour. That fact makes any idea of the National-Maori Party governing arrangement little more than a pipe dream. The Maori Party will not risk internal collapse to make John Key Prime Minister. Given that, the prospect of a Maori Party Kingmaker and a large overhang favours the Left.