Matthew’s Magic Numbers

43 comments on “Matthew’s Magic Numbers ”

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1. Peter Sibbald 1

   15 April 2020 at 7:56 pm

   49? I think you will find the answer, to the election, (and of course life, the universe and everything), is actually 42 (Hitchhiker's Guide to the Universe).

   But seriously, I would certainly hope that after this crisis, and the Mosque shooting last year, NZ would return Labour outright. The government has certainly been a bit slow with covid 19 re the borders, but hindsight is easy and their decisions were lose lose, as it was always going to be a hard trade off.

   No doubt NZ First will once again form a coalition with them, as it has been pretty much a seamless government. Greens will struggle I suspect, which is sad as JAG in particular has succeeded in pushing more environmentally kind transport options.

   Just my opinion, but at this stage, as good as any.

   But will there be an election in 2020? Maybe not.
   • observer 1.1

     15 April 2020 at 11:24 pm

     "But will there be an election in 2020? Maybe not."

     National have gone from "September is too soon" last week to "let's go to level 2 ASAP" this week. Pretty hard to argue that things should be getting back to normal, all open for business, but not democratic elections.
2. Forget now 2

   15 April 2020 at 8:02 pm

   The sum is 100, so I am guessing that they are percentages. Maybe of recent national party polls?
3. Tricledrown 3

   15 April 2020 at 8:04 pm

   Hooton always has a hidden agenda this is just click bait to motivate National voters. From the forked tongue fanboy.
   • Peter 3.1

     15 April 2020 at 9:07 pm

     And if it weren't that but a picture of reality it would have been:

     5 9 49 31 6 17

     17 being 'undecided/refused to say.' Including that diminishes the message to get enthusiastic and energised and panic.
     • I Feel Love 3.1.1

       15 April 2020 at 9:16 pm

       Well he's upset his RW friends (who seem to be Covid Pandemic Deniers as well) – his Twitter replies.
     • Forget now 3.1.2

       15 April 2020 at 9:34 pm

       But wouldn't you panic more if it was 17% undecided? As they would be expected to vote similarly to the stated intended putting presumed Labour on 57%?

       Also, that sums to over a hundred (117%?) – you should have adjusted numbers proportionately. But then I can't be bothered doing so either, and I like playing with numbers.
       • Peter 3.1.2.1

         15 April 2020 at 10:25 pm

         The polls usually total a 100% of those who express preference. The undecideds don't feature.

         My choice of 17 wasn't random.

         Colmar Brunton Poll February with big headlines 'New political poll shows National neck-and-neck with Labour-Greens' included in the small print 'The Maori Party and the New Conservative Party were both on 1 per cent, while 17 per cent were undecided or refused to say how they would vote.'

         17% is a very significant amount.

         If that particular news editor decided to change the focus she could have said in big headlines 'New political poll shows big number undecided.'

         https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/news/politics/new-political-poll-more-evidence-of-tight-election-battle/
4. The Al1en 4

   15 April 2020 at 8:10 pm

   If they are poll numbers as you suggest, then 5 is NZfist and 9 is Green, I wouldn't expect the current coalition to remain the same, in fact, I'd bet against it.

   I'd wager Winston wouldn't be deputy pm, the balance of the minor coalition parties in cabinet would at least be reversed, or they would chose to sit cross bench outside government instead of taking the public demotion.
   • McFlock 4.1

     15 April 2020 at 10:37 pm

     Could be the other way around. Either way, the smart move would be to give both minor parties some decent policy concessions. The minister for Talleys might be out, though.

     But in general, National highlighted the message that if you treat people like crap, they tell you to get stuffed. The current Labour leadership seems smarter than that.
     • The Al1en 4.1.1

       15 April 2020 at 11:26 pm

       True, but the greens have been polling higher than fist for a while, so that would be a huge turnaround. If the numbers are true, and that's a big if, the only explanation for that switch in fortune would be from disaffected nats, and to be honest, I'm not sure nats would do that knowing Winston would probably pick Jacinda again anyway.
       • McFlock 4.1.1.1

         15 April 2020 at 11:55 pm

         Well, the nats are shedding support, and the economic tories can go to ACT (6% from their usual trace element if l-r) and the social conservatives can go to NZ1 (9 from its usual 5%).

         5+4=9, which would put nats and nat exiles on 40%.

         But it's all navel-gazing assuming one poll result, so gazing²
         • The Al1en 4.1.1.1.1

           15 April 2020 at 11:59 pm

           Scary thought there's 6% who'd vote act, though if it is all navel gazing, and hoot's navel at that, at least we know who the scungy belly button fluff is.
5. pat 5

   15 April 2020 at 8:11 pm

   lol…..a few random numbers creates such fuss
6. Andre 6

   15 April 2020 at 8:14 pm

   Isn't this just paying altogether too much attention to Hooton?
   • solkta 6.1

     15 April 2020 at 8:19 pm

     Yes, a lot mode than zero, the real magic hooton number.
7. Craig H 7

   15 April 2020 at 9:15 pm

   49 and 31 were Labour and National in someone's internal polling – can't remember if it was UMR or Curia.
8. joe90 8

   15 April 2020 at 9:22 pm

   He's pining for home.
9. observer 9

   15 April 2020 at 11:15 pm

   Worth recalling that the poll numbers for Clark's Labour and Key's National were often at 50+ during their first terms. Both won a second term comfortably enough, but neither had an overall majority for their party alone.
10. bwaghorn 10

    16 April 2020 at 6:40 am

    Why give this shit heal any oxygen. Hes nothing.
    • te reo putake 10.1

      16 April 2020 at 8:51 am

      The post's really not about Matthew, though as noted by I Feel Love above, it's greatly upset his Tory mates, with David Farrar almost directly calling him a liar.

      If the numbers are correct, then we are looking at the first genuine landslide win under MMP. That would be significant in any electoral cycle, however, when the next Government is going to be tasked with a nationwide economic rebuild, the possibilities for radical change are real.

      We could be looking at a society that is now ready to reverse Rogernomics and a Government willing and able to affect that generational change.
      • Muttonbird 10.1.1

        16 April 2020 at 9:08 am

        Yes there would be scope for change with a Labour only government will be huge but they have already said (somewhere) they don't favour radical or fast change like Rogernomics.

        So it will be incremental but I hope they take a step back and really come up with some vision about what the country should look like for the next 2 generations/50 years.

        Are JA and Robertson the people to do this? Probably, but they need some more help.
        • alwyn 10.1.1.1

          16 April 2020 at 10:28 am

          I suspect that this story on Stuff represents what Robertson and Ardern want.

          Higher Income tax rates. Higher GST rate. Introduce a CGT. Bring in a Wealth Tax. Tax Superannuation beneficiaries at a higher rate. Bring in new Environmental taxes. Push Inflation rates up.

          And while they are about it run Government debt up to $100 Billion.

          As always with Labour we see the truth of the adage They never met a tax they didn't like.

          God help us if the gloss and the spin doesn't collapse before the election. If they want to get back they will, of course, go for as early an election as they can manage. No matter how they spin it they aren't going to get back if they get unemployment up to 20% as is looking quite likely with the total shambles they are making of things at the moment.

          Edit. Whoops, I forgot to include the link to the Stuff story

          https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121016852/coronavirus-tax-changes-coming-to-pay-for-covid19-response-what-will-they-look-like
          • Dontshillplease 10.1.1.1.1

            19 April 2020 at 7:25 pm

            High GST rate? Like the Nats did after they said they wouldn't then.

            Ahh yes, following the science and medical experts created such a shambles. Of course we'd have been better off listening to Simon.. although that would depend on which Simon. The 'don't shut down' Simon, the 'They were too slow' Simon, or another one, take your pick.
      • observer 10.1.2

        16 April 2020 at 10:01 am

        As pointed out immediately above your comment, both previous MMP governments reached very high numbers – in fact, higher – in the first term. Key/National were in the stratosphere, for many months. Conventional wisdom was unanimous: if the ABs won the rugby world cup then the landslide would turn into a rout.

        It didn't happen.
11. Carolyn_Nth 11

    16 April 2020 at 9:19 am

    Tweet's gone? Or Hooton's closed/protected his twitter?
    • te reo putake 11.1

      16 April 2020 at 9:36 am

      The link's still working for me, though I am following the account.
      • Carolyn_Nth 11.1.1

        16 April 2020 at 9:52 am

        It's working for me now. Maybe twitter was having a moment of lock down fatigue?
12. Ad 12

    16 April 2020 at 9:52 am

    Ardern's entitled to her poll bump, but one false move and it all disappears.

    This government has to find a very, very small sweet spot in a triangle with one side being health, one side being the economy, and one side being society. It's not there yet.

    We are likely to get further outbreaks unless the R level falls below 0. Hard to see that being sustained unless we get really lucky in an advanced Level 2. We haven't been lucky in a decade.

    That means more shorter-term lockdowns, more social stress, more economic loss, more health impacts.

    So that demand on the government to sustain New Zealand is just going to get bigger and bigger and bigger through 2021 and 2022 as we slowly recover.

    That is to say, this poll bump won't last. Avoid any self-congratulation implied by Hooten or anyone.

    In a few months our key Ministers will become exhausted from the strain and pace and perpetual responsibility.

    So sure, Labour probably leads another team.

    But there's nothing expansive or joyful in it. It's just the most massive grind for them, day after day, for three years.
    • Forget now 12.1

      16 April 2020 at 11:53 am

      R (reinfection) level below 1 surely? I am not sure what a negative R level would mean – more cases recovering than new people infected? But I don't think patient recovery is a variable in that equation. I certainly can't recall ever seeing a negative R number anyway.
      • UncookedSelachimorpha 12.1.1

        16 April 2020 at 5:37 pm

        Negative R0 – I think that means infected people are actually transmitting healing to other infected people!
    • New view 12.2

      16 April 2020 at 12:16 pm

      One of the few comments that tells it how it is. My thoughts are that neither party Will be looking forward to winning the election. If you could call it a win. For either the Coalition or National it will be a poisoned chalice. The massive debt and unemployment will be a migraine for whoever wins. There will be a lot of unsatisfied people out there from every party.
13. Muttonbird 13

    16 April 2020 at 10:07 am

    Would be great if National were at 31%.

    Someone on the Twitter thread mused that with ACT on 5% this might be the end of the Epsom deal.

    Can only hope.
14. Craig H 14

    16 April 2020 at 10:17 am

    A possible reason why governments don't usually reach their mid-term polling numbers at an election is that the undecided voters don't support the government in the same proportion as the decided voters. I suspect that's why NZ First usually does better in elections than the polls.
15. AB 15

    16 April 2020 at 10:44 am

    I'm disturbed by the thought that 1 in 17 people (roughly) that I meet are totally deranged.
16. Peter 16

    16 April 2020 at 11:38 am

    When the dust clears we'll find that Hooton, furtive Hooton, was sneaking out of lockdown to a secret Housie session at the Ladies Gardening Club. It's been running since 1974 and nothing was going to stop them. Those are the numbers on his big winning card.
    • Stunned Mullet 16.1

      16 April 2020 at 12:10 pm

      I always suspected Hoots was our very own NZ version of Eddie Izzard..
17. mac1 17

    16 April 2020 at 2:14 pm

    I was born on 5/9/49. Hooten is saying that those born 5 September 1949 have a 31% chance of living for another 6 years. Or, have a 6% chance of living for another 31 years.

    That's about right. Thanks, Matthew.

    Seriously though I love the up-dated predictions. That makes my Tory electorate vulnerable to changing to Labour well and truly…..
18. ianmac 18

    16 April 2020 at 4:10 pm

    If Hooton is a Pundit how about Peter Dunne. What a miserable moaning sore looser. Doom laden and full of what "they" ought have done. Says that "his" Government following his Leadership was so much wiser. Key and Joyce was so much better don't you know?
19. Corey Humm 19

    16 April 2020 at 4:55 pm

    Do we really see the govt winning? The govt has shown superb leadership here but that's gonna be a double edged sword, the history books will show Ardern as strong leader but will the newspapers?

    The love in is starting to corrode. Working class and middle class people will turn on this govt very quickly once they lose their livelihoods and many are going to lose their livelihoods.

    The nats are gonna play the dirtiest campaign ever, with big money and labour is going to have to do something it hasn't done in decades … ( Be bold, take on the status quo reform agencies like MSD and come up with bold new ideas that don't require a six month working group ) I don't think labour can do that, I think at their core they are a party of tweaking the status quo to make it fairer, they are not the reforming force they were in the 20th century.

    I hope labour wins a second term, only to keep the Nat act brigade from inflicting horrific reforms, but I can only see the publics live turn to anger once they lose their jobs, houses and I think labour would rather lose the election than seriously tackle the hateful vindictive behavior of MSD ,they may tweak it so MSD treats newly poor middle class beneficiaries nicely but MSD won't treat the working class with dignity, those people will just probably not vote or be decieved into voting national, we'll see hope for three more years tho
20. Brutus Iscariot 20

    16 April 2020 at 7:39 pm

    This could turn on a dime with one misstep. If National can pin this recession/depression on an overzealous response, the "lightweight/vapid" attack angle on Jacinda could well work. Winston is already trying to backpedal and distance himself from the government's management of this. You think that photo of him fishing was an accident? No, it was a very clever dog whistle.

    The main thing Labour has in its favour is Soimun's incompetence. If National had English at the helm, it would be all on.
21. patricia 21

    16 April 2020 at 8:34 pm

    Hooten is playing a game. David Seymour /Simon Bridges Gerry Brownlee Paul Goldsmith Paula Bennett Judith Collins No Nay Never, No More.

    Family members who have been Act or National supporters think the Government has followed the science and been honest with the public and is doing well in the face of a world problem.

    Hooten wants to poke our sense of togetherness and sense of purpose.

    He is playing "Look over here. Puzzle on this."

    83% say "We agree with what has been done by this Government." So his numbers are attention seeking rubbish. He is about as reliable as a snowflake imo.
22. DennyPaoa 22

    19 April 2020 at 1:13 pm

    Here's some more numbers;

    41 Electorate seats National

    29 Electorate seats labour

    7 Maori Seats

    61,000 overseas vote of the 442,000 Special votes cast in 2017.

    How does that compute, to a govern alone labour government scenario?

    They'd need to flip 4 to 5 electorates and swing over 300,000 votes to do that, so I'm calling bullshit on that take.

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