Unlike some news organisations we don’t usually bother reporting Horizon polls here. Their numbers generally sound like wonderful news for the political Left, because they tend to rate National led and Labour led coalitions as pretty much neck and neck. But hyping these results would be intellectually dishonest. Horizon’s methodology is so different, and their results are so far out of line with other polls, that they simply aren’t credible. (Horizon of course would tell you differently, and they have their own critiques of other polls, as I covered here.)
That being said, and with all due caveats and cautions, I am going to note a Horizon poll this time. It’s not the usual estimate of degrees of support for each party, it’s a question about shifting voting intentions:
Voters swing from National after Rena disaster
Eleven percent of people who voted for National in the 2008 general election say they will not do so when they head to the polls on November 26, because of the way the Government has handled the Rena disaster. The swing means the party’s nationwide support has dropped 3 percent on the eve of the election campaign trail kicking into gear.
A RadioLIVE/HorizonPoll survey found just over half of those who backed the party in 2008, 50.3 percent, believe it could have done more to prevent oil spilling from the ship and polluting the environment.
Sixty-five percent of all New Zealanders also feel more could have been done to prevent the loss of fuel from the ship. … The survey also found 46.8 percent of the 1,961 respondents rated Prime Minister John Key’s response to the crisis as ‘poor to very poor’. …
I’m not aware of any other poll on the impact of the Rena disaster, so this first indication does seem worth reporting. It confirms that the expected loss of Nat votes is a real effect. In terms of the size of the effect, I don’t trust the Horizon numbers. I suspect that they over estimate the damage (as other Horizon polls overestimate support for the Left). But it’s early days yet. My guess is that National will keep losing votes as this crisis drags on, and more and more questions are asked about their credibility.
In other “for what it’s worth” poll related news:
Sliver of hope for Labour
A Phil Goff-led Government is unlikely, but becoming more plausible by the day, according to the latest forecast from prediction market website iPredict. …
If ACT lose Epsom and don’t reach the 5 percent threshold, this opens the door for a Labour/Greens/NZ First/Maori coalition, without the need for the Mana Party, whom Labour leader Mr Goff has ruled out working with. Recent polling has put ACT candidate John Banks behind National’s Paul Goldsmith, despite National’s insistence Mr Goldsmith is only campaigning for the party vote.
The Greens are currently expected to win 11 percent of the vote, and a record 14 seats – giving the left-wing bloc a real shot at toppling National. …
A study published last year claimed iPredict was more accurate than most traditional polling at predicting political outcomes.
Interesting times. I’ll leave you with the most excellent Tom Scott, and his take on the Rena disaster…