The latest Roy Morgan poll is mixed news for the Left.
National 47% (up 0.5% since June 17-30, 2013)
Labour 31% (down 0.5%)
Greens 11.5% (down 1.5%)
New Zealand First 4.5% (up 1%)
Maori Party 2% (up 0.5%)
Conservative Party of NZ 1.5% (down 0.5%)
Mana Party 1.5% (up 1%)
ACT NZ 0.5% (up 0.5%)
Others 0.5% (down 0.5%)
United Future 0% (down 0.5%)
The Bad News is that National has been quite high in the last 2 Roy Morgans.
The Good News is that Labour’s vote has held up, through a difficult couple of weeks.
Lefties who are keen to lay the woes of the world at the door of the Shearer leadership need to explain why it is the Greens who have dropped much more than Labour in this poll. Or, alternatively, we could all stop trying to build narratives out of noise, and anchor our opinions on the much firmer foundations of the ongoing polls of polls. Even Roy Morgan’s analysis of this current poll puts it “too close to call”.