As usual the polls are sending us mixed messages.
The Fairfax Research International poll looks disastrous for Labour on 25.9%, while National is in a strong position on 52.5%.
I’m going to do something I believe that I’ve never done before (check my record!) and call that poll a rogue. Research International is a new poll, with no history in previous elections to judge them by. Like the Horizon polls (which currently puts National on 35.7% and Labour up 4.1% to 30.4%) the results of this poll are so far out of line with others that I don’t believe them.
In contrast a Herald poll today puts National on 43%, Labour on 31% and the Greens on 14%. That’s more like it! This “Mood of the Nation” poll canvassed 522 voters on the streets throughout the country. It is probably less “scientific” than the mainstream polls in terms of weighted demographics, but on the other hand it doesn’t have their systematic bias towards landline owners. I also hear rumours (of the unofficial variety) that Labour’s internal polling is showing a move towards Labour, not away.
So make of that if you will! But in the mean time don’t get too excited about the unconfirmed Research International poll. Laugh at me if I turn out to be wrong, but I’m calling it rogue.