Mixed polls

Written By: - Date published: 9:44 am, November 9th, 2011 - 72 comments
Categories: polls - Tags: ,

As usual the polls are sending us mixed messages.

The Fairfax Research International poll looks disastrous for Labour on 25.9%, while National is in a strong position on 52.5%.

I’m going to do something I believe that I’ve never done before (check my record!) and call that poll a rogue. Research International is a new poll, with no history in previous elections to judge them by. Like the Horizon polls (which currently puts National on 35.7% and Labour up 4.1% to 30.4%) the results of this poll are so far out of line with others that I don’t believe them.

In contrast a Herald poll today puts National on 43%, Labour on 31% and the Greens on 14%.  That’s more like it!  This “Mood of the Nation” poll canvassed  522 voters on the streets throughout the country. It is probably less “scientific” than the mainstream polls in terms of weighted demographics, but on the other hand it doesn’t have their systematic bias towards landline owners.  I also hear rumours (of the unofficial variety) that Labour’s internal polling is showing a move towards Labour, not away.

So make of that if you will!  But in the mean time don’t get too excited about the unconfirmed Research International poll.  Laugh at me if I turn out to be wrong, but I’m calling it rogue.

72 comments on “Mixed polls”

  1. ak 1

    Cripes! Watch this poll get buried at the speed of light….stomach-churning news for the Nacthorrhoids.

  2. gingercrush 2

    Didn’t Labour’s own internal polling show Labour ahead prior to the 2008 election? I’m not sure their polling counts for much.

    I don’t see much change in the polls and that can only be a good thing for National. 2011 will be a low turnout. Its a given. Can it be as low as 2002? Quite possibly if not probable. A low turnout will hurt Labour and the Greens more than it will hurt National. I’m still convinced National will be at or around 50%. I’m calling 50.5%. I do think the polls are overestimating the Greens and thus I’m predicting 8-9% for them. Labour will fall under 30%. Also the enrolment of 18-24 year olds is terrible.

    The electoral commission needs to come up with a new way of enrolling people because the system at the moment is broken meaning too many people of any age are not enrolled to vote.

    • Didn’t Labour’s own internal polling show Labour ahead prior to the 2008 election?
       
      Nah gc.  Do you have any proof?

        • mickysavage 2.1.1.1

          It said the Labour-Green vote was ahead of National-ACT not Labour ahead of National.

        • lprent 2.1.1.2

          Gimme me a sec and I will plug in the table.

          Official results from http://elections.org.nz

          Total Votes Counted:
          2,356,536*
          Party

          Party
          Votes

          %
          Votes

          Electorate
          Seats

          List
          Seats

          Total
          Seats

          National Party
          1,053,398
          44.93
          41
          17
          58
          Labour Party
          796,880
          33.99
          21
          22
          43
          Green Party
          157,613
          6.72
          0
          9
          9

          ACT New Zealand

          85,496
          3.65
          1
          4
          5
          Māori Party
          55,980
          2.39
          5
          0
          5
          Jim Anderton’s Progressive
          21,241
          0.91
          1
          0
          1
          United Future
          20,497
          0.87
          1
          0
          1

          New Zealand First Party

          95,356
          4.07
          0
          0
          0
          The Bill and Ben Party
          13,016
          0.56
          0
          0
          0
          Kiwi Party
          12,755
          0.54
          0
          0
          0
          Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party
          9,515
          0.41
          0
          0
          0

          b>New Zealand Pacific Party

          8,640
          0.37
          0
          0
          0
          Family Party
          8,176
          0.35
          0
          0
          0
          Alliance
          1,909
          0.08
          0
          0
          0
          Democrats for Social Credit
          1,208
          0.05
          0
          0
          0
          Libertarianz
          1,176
          0.05
          0
          0
          0
          Workers Party
          932
          0.04
          0
          0
          0
          RAM – Residents Action Movement
          465
          0.02
          0
          0
          0

          The Republic of New Zealand Party

          313
          0.01
          0
          0
          0
           
          70
          52
          122

          Now Roy Morgan was – according to your link…

          On the eve of the 2008 Election the New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National Party support at 42% (down 1%), a 7.5% lead over the Labour Party at 34.5% (up 2.5%).

          Support for the Greens 10% (down 1.5%) is near its record high of 11.5%, while support for NZ First is 4.5% (unchanged), ACT NZ 4% (up 0.5%), the Maori Party 2.5% (unchanged), United Future 1% (up 0.5%) and Others and Independents 1.5% (down 0.5%).

          Error is usually a 2-3% depending on what confidence level you want and sample size. Call it 3%…

          National actual 45.0% cf 42%
          Labour actual 34.5% cf 34%
          Green actual 6.7% cf 10%
          NZF actual 4.0% cf 4.5%
          Act actual 3.6% cf 4.0%
          Maori actual 2.4% cf 2.5%

          Everything else is well below the margin of error. The short answer is that the Roy Morgan poll is usually pretty accurate within reasonable margins of error. That is why I tend to rely on it far more than the other ones.

          I’m pretty convinced that the other crappy polls are more interested in headlines than accuracy. The morgan poll isn’t done for news organisations and publishes all its figures.

    • Colonial Viper 2.2

      I’m still convinced National will be at or around 50%. I’m calling 50.5%. I do think the polls are overestimating the Greens and thus I’m predicting 8-9% for them. Labour will fall under 30%.

      I don’t believe that National has any chance of getting 50% or over, unless turn out is very very poor e.g. under 78%.

  3. In Vino Veritas 3

    Unfortunately Anthony, you have no choice but to label it rogue.

  4. insider 4

    Eddie heard those rumours too about a swing to Labour. They were really well placed ones too. They are not happening. It would be fascinating to be inside a party going through this kind of thing. The pressure must be immense as must the backstabbing. Anyone been through such a thing? We don’t have much of a tradition of score settling memoirs in NZ so no doubt everyone will be very polite as the blood is cleaned from the carpets.

    On the bright side at least you didn’t call it a rouge poll. 🙂

    • The Voice of Reason 4.1

      Nope, had to wait for interesting at 10.40 for rogue to go rouge.
       
      As for what is happening inside Labour, I’m disappointed you haven’t lived up to your name and been able to provide us with the facts. I’d even settle for the gossip, if you thought you had some. But instead, you mindlessly propose that there must be backstabbing going on, when nothing could be further from the truth. Labour isn’t ACT, or indeed National, who themselves have a long history of slipping in the stiletto when things aren’t going their way. eg. the question from my youth; ‘who stabbed Jack in the back?’.

  5. Gosman 5

    A ‘Mood of the nation’ poll conducted on the street is somehow more reflective than a properly conducted poll is it?

    You keep telling yourself that. I’m sure it will make you feel better.

    • Lanthanide 5.1

      How do you know it was properly conducted?

      This company has no track record.

      • Matthew Hooton 5.1.1

        I’m not sure it has no track record. I think it is this company: http://www.tnsglobal.com/global/alm/new-zealand/research-international-nz.aspx
        If so, TNS used to poll for TV3 through the 2000s and had quite a good track record I think.

        • fmacskasy 5.1.1.1

          Have to go with the others, Mathew, I’ve never heard of TNS Research International New Zealand either. (And I’m pretty much a political ‘junkie’ like everyone else here… )

          • Matthew Hooton 5.1.1.1.1

            You can’t be much of a political junkie if you haven’t heard of TNS Research International. They were widely regarded as having the most accurate polls in both 2005 and 2008. See, for example, this discussion: http://liberation.typepad.com/liberation/2010/02/key-to-victory-opinion-polls-and-prediction-markets.html

            • fmacskasy 5.1.1.1.1.1

              I’m trying to wean myself…

              As for TNS; a Google search using the parameters “TNS Research International New Zealand” yielded no local results for NZ (except a couple for the company itself) in the first two pages. It wasn’t until the third page that the first result (Curiablog) came up.

              • zeitung

                TNS has been in NZ for a long time (my ex-flamate worked for them, and I lived just across from their head office in Greenlane, Auckland). But its been bought/sold/merged a couple of times during its history and had its named changed quite a lot. Used to be called NFO, used to be called CM, then it merged with Conversa. I’m not sure its current size but during the late 90’s and early 2000’s it was probably a little smaller than Nielsens, but larger than Colmar.

    • Anne 5.2

      Research agency political polls conducted on the phone to landline owners only is reflective of the mood of the general population, including the 1/2 million or so voters who don’t have landlines?

      You keep telling yourself that. I’m sure it will make you feel better.

      • interesting 5.2.1

        So Anne…

        When (in 1999 and 2002 and even 2005) the “evil polls that dont represent all NZer’s” were saying that Labour was going to win or ahead in the polls….were they not representative of all NZer’s then? Were they evil then?

        Or is it just that when Labour and the left are losing that suddenly the pollsters are wrong and dont represent everyone?

        I find the argument that polls are incorrect and unrepresentative of all NZer’s just a lame excuse that gets said by BOTH parties when they are behind in the polls.

        Face the facts….Labour are currently doing poorly in the polls and the Nats are doing well.

        It is all part of the electoral cycle.

        Trying to claim that certain pollsters that have a proven record (or match other polls that have proven records) as being wrong and unrepresentative is a stupid road to go down.

        I think a TV3 poll comes out tonight….lets see what it says….and please dont start claiming it is wrong because it doesn’t represent all people IF the result doesnt go your way anne.

        • Lanthanide 5.2.1.1

          interesting, have a look at the penetration of cell phones between 1999 and 2005 and compare it to now.

          Also have a look at the penetration of land-lines. Don’t forget to throw in naked broadband where you no longer need a landline phone in order to get internet access…

          • Gosman 5.2.1.1.1

            The trouble is that the landline versus mobile phone issue flows both ways. I know of a number of wealthier people who don’t bother with landlines as Mobile technology, (especially with Smart phones), gives them all the functionality they want.

            Also the point about landlines seems to be based on the idea that people are abandoning landlines in favour of mobiles because of cost/convenience however how does this stack up with home internet connections which I presume still require landlines and is growing as far as I am aware?

            • Lanthanide 5.2.1.1.1.1

              I already addressed home internet connections when I said this:

              “Don’t forget to throw in naked broadband where you no longer need a landline phone in order to get internet access…”

            • McFlock 5.2.1.1.1.2

              as Lanth said, but also don’t forget that not every home has broadband. The cost minimisation bonus of cellphones is that they can be prepay refreshed once a year and you can ditch contract services like landline, broadband and SkyTV.
                
              I will be really interested to see whether the economy has significantly skewed landline data.

        • Anne 5.2.1.2

          @ interesting: Go back to Anthony Robin’s (a scientist I believe) first sentence… “the polls are sending mixed messages”. That seems to be what is happening. Throwing past polls into the mix might look impressive, but they mean very little because they were in a different time in different circumstances. Even so, most of these polls have the same basic problem… they are landline polls so it goes without saying they will have a bias towards the older and more conservative voter.

          And if you’re going to accuse Labour and the left of claiming “polls are wrong because they’re losing” then have a good look at yourself… refusing to recognise that landline conducted polls do tend to be skewed towards National and the right!

          • Pete George 5.2.1.2.1

            The polls are definitely sending mixed messages, but because they are fluctuating messages rather than trend messages they don’t tell a great story for Labour.

            It’s still a long way from election day – especially with the current degree of variability 5-10% moves for the two main parties are not out of the question.

            But Labour need to stop acting like they are getting desperate.

            • McFlock 5.2.1.2.1.1

              Um – I don’t get that impression from Labour? What are the “desperate” moves to which you refer: actually releasing policy, or pointing out the government’s broken promises?

            • Draco T Bastard 5.2.1.2.1.2

              But Labour need to stop acting like they are getting desperate.

              They’re not, National is and, I suspect, UF.

        • DS 5.2.1.3

          Actually, TV1’s last poll before the 2005 election had National ahead by 7%. No-one ever commented on it afterwards for some reason…

  6. interesting 6

    I am sorry Anthony…but to claim a poll as rouge just because it doesnt suit you when they have had other polls out for months now from this same company (some of which have been trumpeted by the left as “showing Labour closing the gap”) and then claim an unscientific poll as correct because the result makes you feel better is smacking of desperation!

    • r0b 6.1

      You’re right, Research International has been around for longer than I thought (I don’t pay too much attention to individual polling companies).  The post could stand as worded, because as far as I know they are still new in NZ political polling with no record in previous elections, but I’ll make a minor adjustment to clarify.

      As for the Mood of the Nation poll, I’m not convinced at this point that it is any more or less scientific than the mainstream polls.  As noted in the post it doesn’t do weighted demographic matching.  But it also doesn’t have a built in bias to landline owners.

      How significant is the landline bias?  In past elections it hasn’t proved very significant.  Weighted averages (polls of polls) have been highly predictive.  But on the other hand the non-landline demographic is growing every year, so the bias is growing every year.  One election or other it’s going to be significant.  No one will know until after the event (and then pollsters will need to change their methods).

      So – is the Mood of the Nation more or less accurate than the mainstream polls?  No way to know until after the election.  If that is “smacking of desperation” to you then so be it. 

      • Gosman 6.1.1

        R0b where is the evidence that lower demographics have abandoned landlines at a greater rate than any other demographic?

        The only stats around this I have seen were some figures that Martyn Bradbury used sourced from here that LPrent put forward based on his experience in setting up an automated phone polling application for Labour. As far as I’m concerned that is hardly persuassive that it makes a blind bit of difference.

        The other thing is the argument about landlines doesn’t seem to stack up if you tie it in with the use of landlines for internet access and the increase in internet usage even amongst those in the lower demographic groups.

        • r0b 6.1.1.1

          R0b where is the evidence that lower demographics have abandoned landlines at a greater rate than any other demographic?

          I’m sure I could find you such evidence Gosman, but it doesn’t seem like a good use of my time.  It’s pretty much a given though, that those who are young and mobile, and those with the least money, are least likely to pay a high monthly cost for an unnecessary landline, wouldn’t you think?

          • Gosman 6.1.1.1.1

            It’s pretty much a given by whom R0b?

            The only people bemoaning the polling methodologies that I see are left wingers who don’t like the latest poll results and claim that they don’t reflect reality.

            The right would be have just as many reasons to be concerned about these flawed methodologies as it means they aren’t getting a true reflection of the will of the population and can generate complacency.Unless of course your argument is that the entire right wing is filled with imbeciles.

            • KJT 6.1.1.1.1.1

              “Unless of course your argument is that the entire right wing is filled with imbeciles”.

              You said it.

              • “Unless of course your argument is that the entire right wing is filled with imbeciles”.

                Ummmmm
                That sounds accurate to me.

                • Gosman

                  You do realise the consequence of that view if the Left get beaten later this month don’t you?

                  It means that the left were bettered by a bunch of imbeciles. How embarrassing is that?

        • Puddleglum 6.1.1.2

          I think young people are less likely to have landlines and they have cellphones which they now use primarily for texting. If I’m right, the effect will cut both ways.

          I seem to remember from previous Fairfax polls that the demographic breakdown showed that younger people tend to vote Labour/Greens more than older demographics (the page illustrating the breakdowns seems to have vanished).

          But, younger people are also far more likely not to vote/not to be enrolled. 

      • interesting 6.1.2

        Thanks for your considered response Anthony. Appreciate it.

    • ianmac 6.2

      Put rouge on your cheek. Examine a rogue poll. (Or am I too late?)

  7. The two polls have the greens at 12 and 14%????

    That is crazy there is no way Labour will be on 31% and the greens on 14% unless we have our version of the “October Surprise”

  8. Akldnut 8

    Political scientist Raymond Miller said apathy and a low voter turnout were a possibility.

    “If there is a close contest voters are more inclined to turn up. I think there is always a danger of apathy where there is a one-sided contest.

    This is a veiw I’ve held for the past three years.

    • ianmac 8.1

      Indeed. Why else would the Right and MSM make such a meal of pushing the lop-sided polls?

    • In Vino Veritas 8.2

      There won’t be much apathy in South Auckland when Labour or the Unions provide buses and a free big mac to their faithful…….

      • Akldnut 8.2.1

        Moron that has nothing to do with apathy – that is extra incentative.
        just like um….North of $50.00 worked for National last election.
        Except if Labour or the unions did what you suggest then they would actually get the incentive on offer.

  9. ianmac 9

    The Herald has quoted The Standard and Anthony’s comment as part of their Election Update. Amazing! http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10764749 @ 10:10am

    • fender 9.1

      Awesome! I’d love every voter in the country to spend time reading the debate and soak up the information available on The Standard.

  10. I would be interested in seeing any research into whether a poll result changes or cements peoples choice for who they’re going to vote for?

  11. Faversham 11

    Time for a song?

    This is “the year 2525”

    25 being Labour’s % of the vote and 25 being the average IQ of its few remaining supporters.

    • Roflcopter 11.1

      2525 might be when Labour get back in at this rate.

    • Puddleglum 11.2

      That was a dystopian song, Faversham so, given the prospects of National being re-elected, quite appropriate.

      Also, I thought that one of the criticisms of Labour was that it was too intellectual and supported by too many academics and abstract, ivory tower, waffly types.

      Whatever you might say about such people, their IQ’s are not usually sub-normal. 

      • McFlock 11.2.1

        We’re those fiendishly stupid highly educated angst-ridden single-minded zealot liberal elites who look patronisingly at the workers we pretend to be, dontcha know.

  12. It’s worth having a read of the wikipedia entry on voter turnout. 

    One point made is that turnout is higher where parties are based on clear class, ethnic or religious lines. Where so-called ‘big tent’ parties are the norm, turnout is lower.

    I guess this is because of people’s sense, in the former case, of being potentially represented by parties that have a specific and clear alignment. 

  13. tsmithfield 13

    Here is another poll.

    It looks like even many Labour and Greens supporters love National’s welfare policy soooo much that they are thinking about voting National this time around. Considering that Labour’s welfare policy is the polar opposite, it is quite predictable what effect Labour’s policies will be having on its popularity. i.e rats deserting the sinking ship.

  14. Dan hansen 14

    Those damn ‘rogue’ polls must becoming a real pain in the &&^&^ to the left….

  15. Doug 16

    The Polls must be close to being correct; according to Three News Phil will be able to hold his meetings in a Phone booth, the phone is off the hook.

  16. Georgy 17

    For an indication of lower demographics abandoning landlines at a greater rate than any other demographic check with schools. there was a time not too long ago when 98% of families had a phone. Today many families in lower demographics do not have phones which cause quite a problem for schools, and along with that, the families in this category often do not keep their cellphones topped up.

  17. prism 18

    I notice the ‘smart’ pundit Tracey Watkins with front page The Press coverage talking National up in a knowing way! One wonders, one does, whether the intellectual activity would be any stronger if she was a racing commentator.

    Will the little Labour mount prove to be a good runner making a strong finish and winning by a nose? Or will the favourite, a rangy beast usually fast out from the gates but with shows of temperament, be able to hold his pace to the end?

  18. queenstfarmer 19

    But in the mean time don’t get too excited about the unconfirmed Research International poll. Laugh at me if I turn out to be wrong, but I’m calling it rogue.

    I don’t know exactly what you mean by an “unconfirmed” poll, but tonight’s Colmar Brunton poll puts Labour below 30% as well, which would appear to “confirm” the Research International poll:

    ONE News political editor Guyon Espiner said that while both the major parties were shedding some support to the minor parties, it is far worse for Labour.

    “Labour is dropping into the danger zone where it is hard to see how they can rescue this one,” he said.

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    Two years have now gone by since the Friday afternoon when my university-student son and I headed out of our Barcelona flat to a nearby primary school, designated as a polling station for the vote that was to be held the following Sunday: the referendum on Catalonia’s independence from Spain ...
    5 days ago
  • Sage Decisions Unwisely Over-Ruled.
    Overruled: The joint decision of Finance Minister, Grant Robertson (Labour) and his Associate Minister, David Parker (Labour) arguably the two most powerful ministers in Jacinda Ardern’s government, to grant OceanaGold the consents which Land Information Minister, Eugenie Sage (Greens) had earlier denied them, offers bitter proof of how hard fighting ...
    5 days ago
  • Government may ban voting in effort to get more people to do it
    More than double the number of people who will vote in this year’s local body elections have tried marijuana or urinated somewhere they shouldn’t have. As local elections look set for the lowest turnout in decades, with many regions falling well short of 40%, the Government is exploring a number ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    5 days ago
  • Woman: Deleted.
    A Statement on Abortion Law Reform by the Council of Disobedient Women   On the eve of bringing an end to antiquated, anti-women abortion laws Green MP Jan Logie intends to write women out of the Bill. With a stroke of the pen, the woke are aiming for total erasure ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    5 days ago
  • The Hollowest of Men Ride Again… SURPRISE!
    Musings continue apace about “the experienced businessman!” soon to be taking up a National Party MP position. Or to be more accurate, being parachuted into a seat to shut down their former MP Jamie-Lee Ross, who despite his own shortcomings shed at least some more light on the inner workings ...
    exhALANtBy exhalantblog
    6 days ago
  • Barbaric
    The Ugandan government wants to murder gay people:Uganda has announced plans to impose the death penalty on homosexuals. The bill, colloquially known as “Kill the Gays” in Uganda, was nullified five years ago on a technicality, but the government said on Thursday it plans to resurrect it within weeks. The ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Fighting Monsters.
    Freedom Of Speech? The Säuberung (cleansing by fire) was the work of the German Student Union which, on 10 May 1933, under the watchful eye of the Nazi Reichminister for Propaganda, Joseph Goebbels, consigned 25,000 books to the flames in a ritual exorcism of “un-German thought”. According to the logic of the ...
    6 days ago
  • The next wave of kaupapa Māori politics: its constitutional, it must be.
      “There can be no such thing as kaupapa Māori political parties or politics in Aotearoa” (Willie Jackson, Labour Party (2017). Māori TV, General/List Election Special) I begin with that claim because at the time, I was confounded at first that it fell out of Willie Jackson’s mouth, and then ...
    EllipsisterBy Ellipsister
    6 days ago
  • Night lights of NZ from orbit
    New Zealand has prided itself for decades with regard to its lack of pollution, and all will be aware that the ‘100% Pure New Zealand‘ meme is under threat through land, water and air pollution of various causes. There is another type of contamination that the country also faces: light ...
    SciBlogsBy Duncan Steel
    6 days ago
  • Reporters deliver uplifting news to fleeing Japanese residents: they won’t miss any rugby
    New Zealand’s media is doing its part in Japan, reassuring those in the path of the storm that they won’t miss any rugby while away from their flooded homes. New Zealand sports reporters stationed in Japan for the Rugby World Cup have had the rare and heartwarming opportunity to inform ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    6 days ago
  • Government in contentious discussions about whether to put surplus on red or black
    Regional Development Minister Shane Jones is the only Cabinet member in favour of putting it all on green. As Finance Minister Grant Robertson finds himself with an enormous $7.5 billion surplus, the Government has begun intense, at times contentious conversations about whether to put the money on red or black at ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    6 days ago
  • Jordanian teachers’ successful strike has lessons for here
    by Susanne Kemp At the start of September close to 100,000 school teachers went on strike in Jordan.  They demanded a 50% pay rise.  A pay rise actually agreed to by the regime back in 2014. In early October, however, in the face of government repression and threats, the teachers’ ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    6 days ago
  • Why some people still think climate change isn’t real
    Climate Explained is a collaboration between The Conversation, Stuff and the New Zealand Science Media Centre to answer your questions about climate change. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, please send it to climate.change@stuff.co.nz Why do people still think climate change isn’t real? David ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    6 days ago
  • The SIS unlawfully spied on Nicky Hager
    Back in 2011, journalist Nicky Hager published Other People's Wars, an expose on NZDF's activities over the previous decade of the "war on terror". NZDF didn't like this, and especially didn't like the fact that it was base don leaks from their own. So, they had the SIS investigate him ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    7 days ago
  • October 2019 – Newsletter
    https://mailchi.mp/7d9133add053/closing-the-gap-october-2019-newsletter ...
    Closing the GapBy Tracey Sharp
    7 days ago
  • And they wonder why we think they’re environmental vandals…
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    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    7 days ago
  • Climate Change: Paying the price in California
    Last year, California burned. This year, to stop it happening again (or rather, to stop themselves from being found liable if it happens again), Pacific Gas and Electric is cutting power to half the state for a week:Schools are closed. Traffic lights down. Tunnels dark. Businesses unopened. Hospitals running on ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    7 days ago
  • Let’s Hear It For Up-Close-And-Personal, Hard-Copy Democracy!
    The Best Way: Missing from the on-line voting debate is any reference to the voting system that produces turn-out figures ranging from 77 to 93 percent of registered voters. The voting system used to collect and count the votes cast in our parliamentary elections. The system that involves citizens making ...
    7 days ago
  • 10/10: World Day Against the Death Penalty
    Today, October 10, is the world day against the death penalty. Out of 195 UN member states, 84 still permit capital punishment. Today is the day we work to change that. This year's theme is children. Having a parent sentenced to death or executed causes long-term trauma and stigmatization which ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    7 days ago
  • Talking Freer Lives: a Marxist gender-critical perspective from Australia
    Among the great new bunch of political friends we have been making recently is the excellent Australian-based Marxist gender-critical site, Freer Lives.  So we asked the comrade who set up that blog to write something for Redline on the blog, himself, his analysis of the rise of gender politics and ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    7 days ago
  • Government spin accepted by union leadership
    by Don Franks  The Auckland City Mission is struggling with a 40 percent increase in demand for food parcels this year. A total of 23,020 were needed by June. Last month Missioner Chris Farrelly told the Herald the “cupboards are bare” and without an emergency food drive, he can’t see ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    7 days ago
  • Forbidden Thoughts
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    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • Much love to my loyal Ukrainian readership
    For some reasons, my post about the mystery message from inside the Downing Street bunker seemed to catch people's attention.  Quite a lot of hits from NZ (unsurprisingly) and the USA (a bit more puzzlingly, but hi there, USAians!!) and 76 views from the Ukraine.I've celebrated my Ukrainian readers in ...
    1 week ago
  • Another day of bonkers GNUmours (again, sorry)
    First, almost a score of Labour MPs seem to have sent a letter to the EU basically begging them to accept a deal - any deal - just so Britain can get the Heck on with Brexiting instead of being trapped in limbo:
    To avoid no deal, deliver on the ...
    1 week ago
  • Labour vs working class immigrants – again!
    by Phil Duncan In 2016 the National-led government suspended the Parent Visa Category, through which migrants were able to bring their parents into New Zealand.  Since then over 5,700 people have been in immigration limbo, stuck on the visa wait list. Labour is now bringing back the scheme.  Well, sort ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    1 week ago
  • Speak Up for Women press statement: on Massey University and Feminism 2020
    The following was released yesterday (Tues, October 8) by the women’s liberation organisation Speak Up for Women. On 23 September Speak Up For Women announced that we would be holding an event at the Massey University Theaterette in Wellington. The event is called Feminism 2020. The intention of the event ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    1 week ago
  • Farmers support dirty rivers
    The government is currently consulting on plans to improve freshwater quality. So naturally, farmers oppose it:South Taranaki farmers are preparing to fight proposed national freshwater changes that some fear will bankrupt them. The Government's proposed National Environment Standard on Freshwater Management, released in September, rated the Waingongoro River as one ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • No-one cares about local government
    Yesterday was the last day for (reliably) posting your vote away in local body elections. Turnouts are mostly much lower than the equivalent time last year (Palmerston North is down 2.3%), and so naturally people are pushing their online-voting snake oil again. Because the online census worked so well, lets ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • The political ghosts of eugenics may matter more than the genetic
    This essay, on the political legacy of the eugenics movement, by Kenan Malik was originally published in the Observer on 6 October 2019, under the headline ‘The spirit of eugenics is still with us, as immigrants know to their cost’. Birth control. Intelligence tests. Town planning. Immigration controls. It’s striking how ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • “Surplus” again
    Another year, and the government has announced another enormous government "surplus". And just like last year, its nothing of the sort. When we have people homeless and sick and hungry, when we have schools and hospitals still falling down, when we have underpaid public servants and infrastucture unmaintained or unbuilt, ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Inside the Downing Street bunker
    James Forsyth at The Spectator (I know, I know) has tapped one of his contacts inside Number Ten for an insight into the Johnson administration's thinking and strategy.It is fascinating, unsettling and quite, quite mad.  Some key points:Negotiations have stalled and the Johnson administration are keen to blame the EU: ...
    1 week ago
  • Taking Control Of The Nation’s Story.
    Fatal Contact: With the arrival of captain James Cook in October 1769, the islands of what would become New Zealand ceased to be the preserve of Polynesian navigators and settlers and became a part of both the world’s map and the world’s history.THE MAORI NATIONALIST assault upon the historical meaning ...
    1 week ago
  • Are GNUs extinct?
    Another round of tactical talks about forming a Government of National Unity have come to nothing with the Liberal Democrats still refusing countenance putting Jeremy Corbyn into Downing Street:Opposition talks on Monday made little headway over when to try and vote down Boris Johnson's government and who might succeed him as ...
    1 week ago
  • Labour chickens out again
    When the government was elected, it promised to lead the way on electric vehicles, and specifically to make the government vehicle fleet emissions-free where-practicable by 2025.They lied:There are 15,473 vehicles in the government fleet and only 78 are electric. When the coalition Government came into power in late 2017, the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Transgender extremism, violence at work against feminist meeting at British Labour Party conference
    by Nick Rogers The debate around the meaning of sex and gender made an appearance at this year’s British Labour Party conference in Brighton. Women’s Place UK – an organisation that questions the demand that biological males who self-identify as woman should have access to women’s spaces, to all-women shortlists, ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    1 week ago
  • Rebelling in Wellington
    Yesterday I went down to Wellington to participate in the Extinction Rebellion protest. Its part of the latest global wave of XR actions, with actions happening all over the world. Some of those protests are massively disruptive: in Canada, XR is blocking major bridges, stopping people from getting to work. ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • ‘The Workshop’ – Report: Talking about Poverty and Welfare Reform: A Guide to Strategies that ...
    The Workshop is a charitable trust for public good. The Workshop undertake research to find ways of communicating that will build support for the solutions that work to solve complex social and environmental problems. See their Report on Talking about Poverty and Welfare Reform below. ...
    Closing the GapBy Tracey Sharp
    1 week ago
  • Exclusive language
    What is language? We generally assume that it a facility unique to humans, allowing us to share what’s in and on our minds. We can tell of our plans, our past exploits, our knowledge. It also allows us to lie. And yet there are vast numbers of people we can’t ...
    SciBlogsBy Michael Corballis
    1 week ago
  • April 2018 – Submission to the NZ Govt Tax Working Group
    You can read our submission HERE ...
    Closing the GapBy Tracey Sharp
    1 week ago
  • 2018 – Submission to the NZ Government Tax Working Group
    Read our submission here ...
    Closing the GapBy Tracey Sharp
    1 week ago
  • Guardian: Poll shows DISASTER for Corbyn and the End of Times
    The Guardian - ever eager to forewarn of doom and disaster on the left - are leading with a new poll from Opinium, which puts the Conservatives 15% clear of Labour.Con 38% +2Lab 23% -1Lib Dem 15% -5Brexit 12% +1Green 4% +2This isn't good news, and it would be very ...
    1 week ago
  • How prostitution became the world’s most modern profession
    Being and Being Bought (Spinifex Press, 2013) by Kajsa Ekis Ekman  A synopsis and commentary of Chapters 1-2 by Daphna Whitmore Ekman, a Swedish journalist and critic, brings together a Marxist and feminist analysis of prostitution and surrogacy in this groundbreaking book She opens the discussion with a definition of ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 weeks ago
  • Clever legal fellow on Scottish challenge to Brexit
    I make no claims to having much legal knowledge,  so I defer to those trained in this area.I am very much enjoying this twitter stream from m'learned friend in Edinburgh, deciphering the legal arguments around the Scottish court challenge to Boris Johnson, based on the charmingly obscure principle of Nobile ...
    2 weeks ago
  • An Open Letter From Closed Minds.
    Ivory Folly? The University of Auckland’s Vice-Chancellor, Professor Stuart McCutcheon, upheld the right of the radical nationalist group, Action Zealandia to exercise their freedom of speech – not matter how distasteful that speech might be. A wiser community of students and scholars would have nodded their agreement and moved on. ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Extinction Rebellion members want to “eat babies”
    If you are not convinced terrorist Organisation ‘Extinction Rebellion’ is very, very dangerous – watch this video at one of their recent meetings. Not only is this obviously mentally ill Woman begging the other terrorists to promote killing and “eating” babies and children, if you watch carefully other members nod ...
    An average kiwiBy admin@averagekiwi.com
    2 weeks ago
  • The government needs to tell people about the OIA
    The Ombudsman has been surveying people about their knowledge of the OIA and the right to information. Unfortunately, it doesn't seem that widespread:The Chief Ombudsman says too many New Zealanders were in the dark over their right to access official information. Peter Boshier said an independent survey released yesterday on ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Climate Change: Join the rebellion
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    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Jermey Corbyn, I don’t like GNU (sorry)
    So, the latest ruminations on the gnews from Westminster (Again, sorry; I'll stop making that pun right now).  This follows on from, and likely repeats bits of, my last post, on the suggestion that a Government of National Unity (GNU) should be set up and then oversee a referendum before ...
    2 weeks ago
  • New Fisk
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • About time
    New Zealand likes to think of itself as not a racist country (despite being founded on the racist dispossession and subjugation of Maori). But for years, we've had a racist refugee policy, which basicly excludes refugees from Africa and the Middle East unless they already have relatives here. Now, the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Legal Beagle: Vexation, or Something Too Long for Twitter
    Several people have asked me whether a particular repeat litigant could be declared a vexatious litigant, in light of their recent decision to appeal an adverse High Court ruling. My nascent tweet thread was getting ridiculously long, so it became this blog post instead.The short answer is: no. The particular ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Zealandia’s Lost Boys.
    Appealing To The Past: Action Zealandia, like so many of the organisations springing up on the far-Right, across what they call the “Anglosphere”, is born out of the profound confusion over what a man is supposed to be in the twenty-first century and, more importantly, what he is supposed to do.THE STATUE OF ...
    2 weeks ago
  • British trade union and political activists defend women’s right to speak, organise
      The attempts of anti-democratic transactivists to (often violently) disrupt women’s rights organising is largely ignored by those sections of the left most prone to misogyny and authoritarianism in New Zealand.  In Britain, however, scores of trade union and left activists added their names to a letter in July, defending ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Turning their back on justice
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    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago

  • Indigenous Freshwater Fish Bill Passes
    The future for New Zealand’s threatened indigenous freshwater fish looks brighter with the passing of the Conservation (Indigenous Freshwater Fish) Amendment Bill in Parliament today said Minister of Conservation, Eugenie Sage. “Until now, our freshwater fish legislation has been 20 years out of date. We have lacked effective tools to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 hours ago
  • Kiwis to take part in world’s biggest earthquake drill
    At 1.30pm tomorrow, hundreds of thousands of Kiwis will join about 65 million people around the globe in ShakeOut, the world’s biggest earthquake drill. The annual drill is to remind people of the right action to take during an earthquake which is to Drop, Cover, Hold, and to practise their ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    13 hours ago
  • Rising wages and low inflation supporting Kiwis
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    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    15 hours ago
  • NZ economy strong amid global headwinds
    New Zealand’s economic strength and resilience has been recognised in a major update on the state of the global economy. The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook released overnight shows a reduced global growth forecast over the next two years as issues like the US-China trade war and Brexit take hold. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    15 hours ago
  • Keeping New Zealanders safer with better counter-terrorism laws
    Justice Minister Andrew Little has today introduced a new Bill to prevent terrorism and support the de-radicalisation of New Zealanders returning from overseas. The Terrorism Suppression (Control Orders) Bill gives the New Zealand Police the ability to apply to the High Court to impose control orders on New Zealanders who ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    15 hours ago
  • Improved succession and dispute resolution core of Ture Whenua changes
    A Bill that proposes targeted changes to simplify the processes for Māori land owners when engaging with the Māori Land Court has had its First Reading today. “The approach taken by the Government is to ensure that the protection of Māori land remains a priority as we seek to improve ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    17 hours ago
  • Speech to CTU Biennial Conference
    Let me first thank all the new unionists and members in the room. There is nothing more important to improving people’s working lives than people making the decision to care, to get on board and help, to take up the reins and get involved. Congratulations to you. You bring the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    17 hours ago
  • Minister ensures continued Whenuapai flight operations
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    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    17 hours ago
  • NZ joins Coalition of Finance Ministers for Climate Action
    Finance Minister Grant Robertson has announced New Zealand will join the Coalition of Finance Ministers for Climate Action while attending APEC meetings in Chile. The objective of the 39 member Coalition is to share information and promote action to tackle climate change. It was formed in April this year, in ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    20 hours ago
  • CTU speech – DPM
    Ladies and gentlemen, NZCTU President Richard Wagstaff, members of respective unions – thank you for the invitation to speak to you today. This might be preaching to the choir, but the importance of trade unions in New Zealand’s historical arch is difficult to understate. And it is my belief that ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Police Association Annual Conference
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    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • New Zealand announces a further P-3 deployment in support of UN sanctions
    Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters and Minister of Defence Ron Mark have announced the New Zealand Government’s decision to again deploy a Royal New Zealand Air Force P-3K2 (P-3) maritime patrol aircraft to support the implementation of United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions imposing sanctions against North Korea. New ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • New Zealand deeply concerned at developments in north-east Syria
    Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters says New Zealand continues to have serious concerns for peace and stability in north-east Syria. “Recent reports that hundreds of ISIS-affiliated families have fled from a camp are deeply concerning from a humanitarian and security perspective”, Mr Peters says. “While we acknowledge Turkey’s domestic security ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government on high alert for stink bugs
    Biosecurity Minister Damien O’Connor is warning travelling Kiwis to be vigilant as the high-season for the crop-eating brown marmorated stink bug (BMSB) is under way. “We’re on high alert to stop BMSB arriving in NZ. The high season runs until April 30 and we’ve strengthened our measures to stop stink ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Better protections for students in halls of residence
    The Government is moving swiftly to change the law to improve the welfare and pastoral care of students living in university halls of residence and other tertiary hostels. Cabinet has agreed to several changes, including creating a new mandatory Code of Practice that sets out the duty of pastoral care ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • New trapping guide for community and expert trappers alike
    The Minister for Conservation Eugenie Sage has launched a new comprehensive trapping guide for community trappers to help them protect our native birds, plants and other wildlife, at Zealandia in Wellington today. ‘A practical guide to trapping’, has been developed by the Department of Conservation (DOC), and was launched during ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Widening Access to Contraceptives Welcomed
    Associate Health Minister Julie Anne Genter welcomes PHARMAC’s move to improve access to long-acting reversible contraception (LARCs). PHARMAC has today announced it will fund the full cost of Mirena and Jaydess for anyone seeking long term contraception, lifting previous restrictions on access to Mirena. “I welcome women having greater choices ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Major upgrade for Taranaki Base Hospital
    The Government has approved the next stage of a major redevelopment of Taranaki Base Hospital, which will deliver new and improved facilities for patients. Health Minister Dr David Clark has announced details of a $300 million dollar project to build a new East Wing at the New Plymouth hospital. It ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Extra support for rural families
    Extra funding will allow Rural Support Trusts to help farming families, says Minister for Rural Communities and Agriculture Damien O’Connor. “I know that rural families are worried about some of the challenges facing them, including the ongoing uncertainty created by the Mycoplasma bovis outbreak. “Those concerns sit alongside ongoing worries ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Howard Leaque Beekeeper programme graduation
    Thank you for the opportunity to be here to present certificates to the 16 graduates who have completed a beekeeping course delivered by the Howard League.  Let us start by acknowledging Auckland Prison’s Deputy Prison Director Tom Sherlock, and Acting Assistant Regional Commissioner of Corrections Northern Region Scott Walker - ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Finance Minister to attend APEC meetings
    Finance Minister Grant Robertson leaves this weekend to attend the APEC Finance Ministers meeting in Santiago, Chile. Discussions between APEC Finance Ministers at the meeting will include the effects of the current global economic uncertainty, risks for APEC economies and sustainable development of the region. While at APEC Grant Robertson ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Pacific languages are a source of strength, they ground us and build confidence
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    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Major boost to support disabled people in sport and recreation
    The Coalition Government has announced an action plan to improve the wellbeing of disabled New Zealanders by addressing inequalities in play, active recreation and sport. The initiative includes training to develop a workforce that understands the needs of children and young people with a range of impairments, advocacy for fit ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • More prefab homes to be built as red tape cut
    The construction sector is being freed up to allow more homes to be built more quickly as the Government cuts through some of the red tape of the Building Act.  “Every New Zealander deserves a warm, dry, safe home and old inefficiencies in the Building Act make building slow and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Further details of Prince of Wales and Duchess of Cornwall visit to New Zealand
    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has welcomed further details on the Prince of Wales and Duchess of Cornwall’s visit to New Zealand next month. Their Royal Highnesses will visit New Zealand from 17-23 November – their third joint visit to New Zealand and first in four years. They arrive in Auckland ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • O’Connor in Thailand to push for RCEP deal
    Minister of State for Trade and Export Growth and Minister of Agriculture, Damien O’Connor, heads to Thailand today to attend the final Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) Ministerial meeting, as negotiations enter their final stages. “The RCEP Agreement would anchor New Zealand in a regional agreement that covers 16 countries, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Young Pacific people can access earning and learning opportunities in Hawke’s Bay, Otago and South...
    Pacific young people living in the Hawke’s Bay, Southland and Otago regions will have access to support services that have proved successful in helping young people find new earning and learning opportunities. “Tupu Aotearoa is about changing Pacific young peoples’ lives. Our young people are talented, they are smart, they ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Protecting wellbeing – ACC HQSC Trauma Forum
    Introduction As the Minister for ACC I thank you all for the work that you do supporting New Zealanders in their literally most vulnerable moments. From those who hold people’s lives in their hands, to the people who research technique, technology and trends, your work is highly valued. A special ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • NZ economy in good shape – notes prepared for speeches in Christchurch
    Notes prepared for speeches in Christchurch – Wednesday 9 October 2019 Today’s topic, “trends and opportunities for the New Zealand economy,” is certainly one getting a great deal of commentary at the moment. Looking across the media landscape lately you’ll notice we aren’t the only ones having this discussion. There ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • World Mental Health Day a reminder of the importance of mental health work
    Minister of Health Dr David Clark and Associate Minister of Health Peeni Henare say this year’s World Mental Health Day theme is a reminder of why the Government’s work on mental health is so important. “This year the World Federation for Mental Health has made suicide prevention the main theme ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Cultural Ministers Meeting
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    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
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  • NZ economy in good shape
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  • NZTA to refocus on safety following review
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  • Joint Cooperation Statement on Climate Change between the Netherlands and New Zealand
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  • Government putting right Holidays Act underpayment in Health
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  • Government accounts show strong economy
    A strong surplus and low debt show the economy is performing well, and means the Government is in a good position to meet the challenges of global economic uncertainty. “The surplus and low levels of debt show the economy is in good shape. This allows the Government to spend more ...
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  • Ministers approve application to expand Waihi mine
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  • Tuia 250 Voyage flotilla launches with tribute to tangata whenua
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  • Visit to advance trade agenda with Europe and the Commonwealth
    Minister for Trade and Export Growth David Parker leaves tomorrow for Dubai, London and Berlin for a series of meetings to advance New Zealand’s trade interests.  In Dubai he will visit New Zealand’s Pavilion at Expo 2020 where construction is underway.  There he will meet Minister of State for International Cooperation, Her ...
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