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Nat Civil War: Collins faction turns on Key

Written By: - Date published: 1:04 pm, April 7th, 2012 - 119 comments
Categories: john key, national - Tags: , ,

Perhaps it has been a misnomer talking about the Boag faction in the Nat Civil War. Boag has the networks and money but it’s the man she brought into Parliament in 2002 that Collins will have to roll if she wants to be PM before the election. And it’s Key who screwed her on the defamation suits, signalling she should go ahead, then denying her political and monetary backing from Cabinet.

It’s interesting to see the Collins faction openly using National’s 44% polling in the latest Roy Morgan. Just when our sources inside National were saying the strong showing in the TVNZ poll had taken the heat out of leadership speculation, this new poll, and, more importantly, the trend, have re-confirmed a basic truth- National will lose the next election under Key.

Lusk writing as Whaleoil has been quick to highlight the facts for National MPs (Simon, it rather gives the game away when Slater posts that he’s off hunting this weekend but the posts continue unabated). Lusk notes that four electorate MPs, all female would lose their seats in a uniform swing and is promising a similar post on which list MPs would be gone. And don’t forget twenty Nat ministers’ jobs are on the line. There’s also posts on UK conservatives who think Cameron is too soft and leading them to defeat, implying the same is true here. We’re told this is only the iceberg tip of the taking campaign going on inside National.

The Collins faction turning their sights (and sites) on Key is due, we’re told, to several factors: his stated intention to stay on, his positively aligning himself with the Boag faction -most publicly by boxing Collins into a corner on the defamation suits while defending Pullar, and his falling poll numbers.

How long before this all re-erupts into the ugly public spats we saw in March, who knows.

119 comments on “Nat Civil War: Collins faction turns on Key ”

  1. Dr Terry 1

    Is Pete George gone hunting too? How could he resist dominating this column? What I would like to know is exactly WHAT is Lusk hunting (peoples souls?) I see that at least one Herald columnist today chooses to stick with the out-dated TVNZ poll. Funny how frequently Roy Morgan surveys are almost totally by-passed.
    Nevertheless, I counsel patience. Key’s lot resist going under whatever the hell they do!

    • Georgecom 1.1

      Given that until fairly recently UF were infact United Future Outdoors (UFO) that may not be as an outlandish suggestion as it may seem. A couple of things however I do recommend UF/UFO ers hunt out is 30,000 odd (number rather than quality of people) voters, or else they are United History next election, and a decent barber for the lead UF/UFO er.

  2. tsmithfield 2

    If Key is in danger because of popularity ratings then Shearer must be absolutely screwed.

    [I wonder if ipredict will launch a contract on both major parties changing leaders before the election. Eddie]

    • I haven’t seen any suggestions that Key’s leadership is at risk except for in over the top posts here, never any evidence, just claims.

      Lusk writing as Whaleoil – yeah, that’s like Mallard writing as – what did the sources inside Labour say about that again? Just more idle speculation, we’re told.

    • tsmithfield 2.2

      [I wonder if ipredict will launch a contract on both major parties changing leaders before the election. Eddie]

      I would say Ipredict would have a fairly high rating for Shearer geting rolled, wouldn’t it? That poll result from Roy Morgan suggested that voters who previously favoured National find Labour so repulsive that they would rather go further left and vote Green rather than Labour. That has to be a worry for Labour, doesn’t it?

      • Colonial Viper 2.2.1

        I would say Ipredict would have a fairly high rating for Shearer geting rolled, wouldn’t it?

        iPredict had the chances of John Key leaving as National leader in 2012, 2013 or 2014 at a cumulative 58%, last time I looked.

        That’s pretty damn high.

        • Lanthanide

          Except the 2014 results can pretty much be read as “Key loses the election and quits parliament”.

          • Matthew Hooton

            Yes, I think iPredict probably needs “Key to be National leader in first leaders’ debate of next election campaign” and “Shearer to be Labour leader in first leaders’ debate of next election campaign” to be a bit more meaningful than the current lot of stocks.

      • QoT 2.2.2

        I would say Ipredict would have a fairly high rating for Shearer geting rolled, wouldn’t it?

        I don’t agree, tsmith – I think the longevity of Goff’s leadership despite shitty poll results shows that Labour doesn’t ditch bad leaders easily [assuming one thinks Shearer is a bad leader, that Goff was a bad leader, that Labour should have ditched Goff earlier etc etc]

        Which is less a comment about the Labour leadership and more about whether anyone thinks there’s good money to be made yet.

    • Matthew Hooton 2.3

      Eddie – they were launched straight after the election as follows:

      Key to depart: https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=143
      Next National Leader: https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=155

      Shearer to depart: https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=154
      Next Labour Leader: https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=101

      Overall, there is a combined 58.6% probability Key will depart before the end of 2014 and his most likely replacements are Collins (33.9%), followed by Parata (18.7%), followed by Joyce (16.8%).

      There is a combined 53.6% probability Shearer will be gone by the end of 2014 and his most likely replacements are Robertson (41.7%) and Cunliffe (19.8%).

      There is a 43.4% probability Shearer will be PM by 1 January 2015 and a 15% probability Robertson will be (see https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=332 ).

  3. I must get in a couple of weeks worth of popcorn.  This will be really interesting.

    And surely Slater cannot be so stupid as to blog how he is going away hunting and then have all these blog posts go up.  he is not that stupid is he? 

    • bad12 4.1

      How dare you,accuse Cameron of being that stupid???,

      We all know that the depth and quantity of ‘its’ stupidity has yet to be plumbed to anywhere near the depth and broad range of stupidity possessed…

    • QoT 4.2

      He could always argue they were pre-written and scheduled to go up while he was away. And just happened to be on conveniently-topical subjects.

      • mickysavage 4.2.1

        Maybe Qot but two of them were from articles dated April 7.

        If he is live I would have expected him to have popped over for a chat.  For some reason every time the name “Simon Lusk” is mentioned Cameron gets very excited … 

        • Pete George

          As well as scheduled posts it’s not difficult to have access to the Internet off and on, that’s how my weekends often work.

          Anyway, so what if different people provide posts, anyone could be accused of that including you or me, no way to prove anything either way. Seems a bit pointless.

          And one known person posting several people’s writings is not much different to unknown indenties posting however many people’s writings. Eddie is a bit cheeky accusing others of ghost writing.

          [look mate, the value of a blog like this is not just the non-msm analysis of events but the insight into things that don’t make the msm. As Farrar, interestingly, pointed out the other day on the topic of the ACC scandal, the really interesting stuff is never in writing; there is no physical proof to present. Now, you don’t have to believe every bit of insider gossip you read, you would be a fool to do so, but dismissing anything of that nature on the grounds of lack of hard proof is also silly.
          As for whether the posts could be scheduled -they refer to Thursday’s poll and Slater said he was going away on Friday. So he would have had to write all those posts in the one evening. Also, he said post volume would be down because he wouldn’t have time. And one of the posts refers to being in Havelock North. Lusk is based .there, I understand. Eddie]

          • mickysavage

            Petey the problem is you do not know what is happening in the background but you keep on making these conclusive comments.  With the greatest of respect you are talking from a position of ignorance.  You do not always need to comment about things, particularly when you do not know the background.

            • Pete George

              Most people who talk about things back it up with evidence. Saying you know what’s happening in the background so you should be believed is a bit naive.

              How do you know I don’t know background that you don’t? You’ve accused me of being in cohorts with all sorts of people and organisations – do you have background on that? Obviously not, becasue you’ve always been wrong. So why should you believed about your current “background information”?

              • Now you are just fishing.  Believe me the coiffured one is not in the loop.  Sit back and relax.  The next couple of weeks will be fascinating.

                • I’m not fishing, I’m calling your bullshit. Either put up or you’re not credible.

                  How do you know who is in what loop and who isn’t? Are you the vast conspiracy mastermind and no everything? Haha.

                  You’re getting all excited about something you claim to know about one side of the story. I’d be surprised if that side shared it all with you, and the other side won’t have for sure.

                  And remember that swords can have two edges.

                  • McFlock

                    Oh wow, Peteg’s on the attack!
                    Poor Mickey. It must be like being mauled by a berserk goldfish.

                    • Pascal's bookie

                      Be careful Flocky. Swords can have, under certain circumstances, two edges. One edge on the one side, and another edge, on the opposite side from the first edge. That’s a metaphor. A rather pointed one too.

                      Pete has whipped out his metaphor, and you bet your arse he intends to use it, or not, depending on the circumstances, after due reflection of course. Probably best to be cautious though. Maybe just whip the metaphor out and leave it lying there in all it’s edginess.

                      Kind of like calling the Greens watermelons. geddit? Awesome stuff that metaphorising If you’re really good at it, you can say shit and pretend you didn’t say it.

                      Dangerous. He’s a man of danger, double edged, sipping tea, oblivious to, well, pretty much fucking everything as it happens, but it’s the thought that counts.

                    • QoT

                      @PB: I could never forgive myself if I didn’t take this opportunity to mention “understanding is a three-edged sword.”

                    • Is Petey the international man of mystery?

                    • just embracing my inner nerd here but you can actually get 3 edged blades with a triangular cross section. very vicious, they create wounds that don’t close. 
                      that should give peteg all sorts of metaphors to mangle 

                • David H

                  Hey Mickey, arguing with PG, is like well, I have a board in my house that needs a head banging into it a bit more to give it that ‘DOH” look. Be about as much fun as arguing the toss with a tosser. But it would get the board shaped lol.

                  Well said Qot but PG only deals with “your side”

                • Tc

                  PG is rapidly becoming a parody spread the popcorn around mickey

            • QoT

              micky, that’s just mean. Pete has Very Important Thoughts and he must share them with all!

            • marty mars

              You’ve hit the nail on the head there micky but I suspect pete gets some thrill out of people telling him his arguments are nonsense – a bit of hairshirtitis I think

          • McFlock

            Pete accusing others of hypocrisy. That’s naaaaasty.

          • felix

            Eddie writes: “And one of the posts refers to being in Havelock North. Lusk is based .there, I understand.”

            Doesn’t that just indicate that Slater is hunting little bunny wabbits and baby birdies with Lusk, his hunting buddy, in the Hawkes Bay?

            Not that I’m doubting the general thrust of what you’re saying, just noting that that particular bit of evidence neither strengthens nor weakens the case.

            • Lanthanide

              I take Eddy’s comment to mean that the author of the post is alluding to being in Havelock North, and as Lusk is ‘based there’ he is the most likely author.

              Alternatively Slater could be huntin’ and shootin’ down in Havelock North and had written the post in those terms. No idea, depends what the post says, I’m not about to go over there and read it.

            • fender

              If he’s pig-hunting he better be careful someone doesn’t shoot him. Be a tough decision for a court to rule on considering Slater gets around in that pig suit all the time.

          • ghostwhowalksnz

            Lusk has a vineyard/lifestyle block outside Waipawa. Company office records give the address. So its about 45k south of Hastings

  4. Tanz 5

    Go Judith. Hope she does manage to take out Key. At least she has grit.

  5. bad12 6

    My what a tangled web is weaved,tho We have been following the blow by blow fast moving action and fall-out of the ACC/Pullar incident vis a vis its repercussions both on the floor of the Parliament and the fortunes of the National Government there are so many tangled little threads inter-twining here that it is becoming more and more difficult to retain a picture of this from A to Z,

    We can ”see” what this does to the numbers of the various factions within National and ”see” how this effects their ability to wield power round the Cabinet table and what this does in terms of how long Slippery might last as National Party leader and who has the front row on the grid as far as the next leader goes,

    But,to try and elucidate such on paper, or in this case, onto a computer screen in all it’s intricate detail is daunting,so we will just accept that for the most part most people have got a reasonably clear picture of most of the intricate little by-plays as this particular stench was released from within the National Government as the can of worms was slowly opened in the full gaze of the Public,

    Lets take you all backward a little to Paula Benefits ugly(and probably illegal)actions over the release of the income details of a couple of WINZ clients after they went public about the canning of a training allowance,

    Benefit,(its what the clients refer to Her as,snigger)a new comer to the Parliament as a Minister was being managed from the 9th floor and Captain Panic Pants advising Her,or more to the point,advising the minder put in place by the 9th floor,gave the go ahead for Benefit to drag the 2 clients names through the public mud via the release of their private income details,

    Fast forward to un-Crusher Collins having received the Boag email, by now the 9th floor having had very little option but to give Nick Smith the resign or get shoved under a bus order was all over the ACC/Pullar scandal with the edict from the 9th floor that they would ”handle it” and anything to do with the name Pullar was to be fast forwarded up to Captain Panic Pants,(the result of this was various secretary,s rummaging through filing cabinets at the letter P and the name Pullar being ”swept” through Ministerial and MP,s data-bases),

    To shorten the process a little we would have to ask you all Ladies and Gentlemen to place your bets,what odds are there that the leak come from un-Crushers office with the full knowledge of Captain Panic Pants up on the 9th floor thus leaving un-Crusher to believe that Slippery had her back on the issue,

    The situation now after having silently knifed each other for a couple of weeks in an orgy of internal blood letting rarely glimpsed by the public,the best way to describe the National Government or in particular the present National Cabinet is through the lens of one of those movies where the action cuts to a scene of a room full of psycho killers,all armed and in a circle pointing the guns at each others heads…

  6. bad12 7

    From a Forensic Psychologists point of view un-Crusher Collins hysterics in the House during the week gave every indication that She may been suffering from the after effects of an Adrenalin over-dose, in a week where her fortunes rose dramatically on the back of Nick Smith’s timely departure from the Cabinet un-Crusher had Herself had been dragged to the edge of the abyss,

    A base-jumper without a parachute,the ultimate in Adrenalin rushes,

    What of the various power factions within the National Government tho, Brat-packer’s McCully,and, English, having watched one of their number removed from what until then had been a finely balanced Cabinet in terms of the power held by the various factions were embroiled and embroiling the National Government in further messy public debacles, English making what may yet turn out to have been a deliberate ”foot’n’mouth declaration that the National Governments economics were in fact just a ”guess”,and McCully becoming embroiled in further messy attempts to prolong the recession by making drastic cuts to employment in His Foreign Affairs portfolio,

    So, un-Crusher, one day consolidating Her power with the addition of ACC to the portfolio is within the week made the object of derision both inside and outside of the Parliament,(and yes We have wondered if it were political machinations of the payback variety which caused the story of the un-crushed car to break at the most in-opportune moment for un-Crusher),down goes Her chances to grab the Leadership in the future along with the severely weakened chances of the Brat-pack,

    Slippery,supported by the two book-ends, Brownlee, and, Joyce must have been smugly laughing up His sleeve at all this,He had hardly moved a muscle and the contenders and pretenders to the throne were falling like flies all round Him,

    Then along came Joe,big bad Joe, tall talking Joe, in the form of Joe Public via the TVnews poll which at first glance was just another gloat fest for National Party acolytes to feast upon,Slippery tho always drawn inexorably to the ”Leaders” rating would have received the first major negative shock of a political career carefully crafted upon the politics of smile’n’wave so as to hide from the public the virtually empty suitcase of intellectual rigour that is our Prime Minister,

    By weeks end tho small sharp objects could be heard being abraded in the nether regions of the National back bench in the Parliament as the Roy Morgan poll turned torpor into abject fear, as the Morgan poll showed the slow tumble into electoral oblivion for many on the National back bench had begun,

    The new game in town for the back bench was to start the graph,the red crosses snuffing out the blue ones as the calculation somberly showed in graphic detail who was still in the Parliament after a 4% drop in polled popularity and who wasn’t….

  7. Cactus Kate 8

    “I’m sorry but this has to be the final straw from a senior MP that has continuously shown himself to be a liability to his party. Someone needs to take the keys to the internet of this guy.

    In my opinion that someone is David Shearer. He came to the leadership pitched as the fresh face of the Labour Party and it’s about time he showed that by clamping down on the tired old embarrassment that is Trevor Mallard”

    Is this from the same Eddie who is now running Trevor’s smears for him?

    • deuto 8.1

      DNFTT. Perhaps CK is the one minding the shop while CS and SL are off hunting .

      • felix 8.1.1

        Not even Cameron would be that stupid. It’s one thing to lend your login to a better, smarter writer than yourself, but quite another to lend it to a borderline illiterate who can’t hold their liquor.

        • McFlock

          maybe the rabid dog he left in charge died, so CK stepped in?

        • Cactus Kate

          Felix honey, again you’ve smoked the pipe far longer than I’ve been at the bar. Go back to mixing some of that noise pollution you call music and settle down.

          I want to hear from Eddie in answer to why he suddenly likes Trevs work, not some silly uncommercial hipster.

  8. Cactus Kate 9

    No what’s really cute is I’m sitting commenting poolside at The Peninsula in Bangkok while you are all wringing your hands about locked out meat workers who are in a dilemma as to whether they like to spend more time with their families, as workers say they want, or a job that their bosses can give to someone else.

    • felix 9.1

      I pretty much take it as read that a person’s environment informs their world view, their attitudes to society, and their politics to a substantial degree.

      I’m not sure how it wouldn’t be so.

      • Cactus Kate 9.1.1

        So you’ve worked in a meat workers plant and have knowledge of the importance of the employer to the local economy?
        Right….Mr Beats.

        • felix

          Never worked in the meat works. How is that relevant?

        • mike e

          CKyou must be bored prickly one, all that money and time and all you can think of if defending your pond scum mates. you are a truly pathetic creature

    • deuto 9.2

      So if you are sitting poolside at The Penisula in Bangkok there must be much more interesting things to do than commenting on a website in little old NZ – no interesting men in sight?

      • felix 9.2.1

        Sometimes what we project outwardly bears no relation to how we’re feeling inwardly.

        • Cactus Kate

          Only if you are a dishonest prick hiding behind a pseudonym and a split personality. I’m rude all day to peoples faces and it is exactly how i frel at the time. You would only be like this on the blog in your safe fake world.

          • felix

            Come now Kate, I was very kind to you last time you were here. I stopped winding you up when I became concerned that you were embarrassing yourself and I held your hair out of your face while you threw up.

            I might not think much of you but that doesn’t mean I don’t care about your feelings.

            • Cactus Kate

              Hard to hold hair out of another persons face when you are using both hands rolling another Meth fuelled joint for yourself Felix.
              Sold any records this weekend?

    • ghostwhowalksnz 9.3

      Is that the Peninsula in Bangkok that has rates 75% off ?

      Hope you didnt pay the normal rate

  9. Cactus Kate 10

    Deuto – multitasking of course. Plus the iPad 2 has a naff camera function. Thai websites not much fun to look at are they?

    • deuto 10.1

      Right – so you are sitting poolside, trying to look important as you work away on your ipad 2 sending messages to this website in the hopes that it will attract attention from some of your fellow poolsiders. Have been to Thailand many times but for not some years so don’t know what Thai websites are like, but do know that men (mostly European) staying at such place as The Penisula are not interested in European blondes when there is an abundance of young, slender Thai beauties for the taking. So, get over it and just get drunk. Over and out.

      • Cactus Kate 10.1.1

        Given the hotel is full of Easter holiday families, all European, what on earth are you on about? Why did you even ask me the question in the first place? Everyone here has an iPad or Kindle and very few men are doing anything but reading theirs pretending to watch their kids in the pool.
        Nice of you though to view Thai women as hookers ready for the taking by you European men. I’m sure your experience in such is about as long and extensive as your….

        • deuto

          You are making assumptions there as to whether I am (a) European (b) male and (c) think all Thai women are available as hookers. Have a nice evening.

          • Cactus Kate

            Well you can be anything you want to be behind that manly/womanly/trans pseudonym Deuto. You’ve said goodnight twice now. Can’t even make your mind up about that.

  10. Crashcart 11

    I’m glad your position pool side in the boy love capital of the world makes you feel better. Not even a good attempt at deflecting from the original discussion. Do you think Lusk is posting as the Whale and if so does that indicate things are getting worse behind closed doors (maybe not that closed lets say pulled too)?

    • Cactus Kate 11.1

      No Lusk isn’t posting as WO. How do I know? They’re shooting together.
      Simple enough answer dickhead.
      And what’s with the homophobia? What consenting men get up to isn’t your business or mine.

    • felix 11.2

      Oh come on Crashcart, let a lonely lady have her fun. It’s a quiet night around here.

      • Cactus Kate 11.2.1

        Yes it’s just you. Me, Crashcart and your mothers upstairs for company tonight. Although its only 6pm here so what is your excuses?

        • felix

          Wanted to go out, but Mum says I’m grounded for talking to strange women on the internet.

          • Cactus Kate

            And she cut your allowance for exceeding the broadband plan she’s paying for.

            • felix

              Yeah it sucks, when I grow up I’m gonna be a libertarian and do whatever I like.

              Ah well this crack isn’t going to smoke itself. Been nice chatting with you again.

            • Crashcart

              Firstly I only asked your opinion dont know why that made you so angry? Is it because you know its shit.

              Secondly you should really learn the difference between man love and boy love. One is homosexuality and doesn’t bother me. The other is pedifilia and I don’t think homosexuals would like you to lump them together.

              Glad my mother is enjoying Asia. It’s a wonderfully diverse culture that I have had the pleasure of exeriencing a number of times. I don’t think being there will give here any more insite into the inner working of Whaleoil than it does you.

              So yea. Keep trying to hide your anger by trying to piss others off. Not really working but I find it amusing.

              • Cactus Kate

                ?? Illiteracy corner personified there. Jesus wept I could be here another 5 hours and do better.

                You can’t even spell pedophilia so shouldn’t be commenting on it further. You ran down Bangkok as being a kiddie fiddling capital from the get go. Completely irrelevant to your original question that I answered re Whales posting.

      • deuto 11.2.2

        Sounds like it is a quiet night -or afternoon – poolside at The Penisula also, for CK anyway……LOL

  11. Cactus Kate 12

    I thought you were pissing off.
    “over and out” clearly was a manly directive to your mother to clear the dishes out of the spaghetti shes boiled for you in the garage you live in than you were departing for your 10pm beddy byes.

  12. QoT 13

    You know, peeps, next time someone whinges that no one will take me seriously ’cause I’m so juvenile/cussy/etc, I’m just going to point them to this thread and say “see that chick? She’s a successful lawyer. No lie.”

    • felix 13.1


    • Cactus Kate 13.2

      Paid to deal everyday with people like you.
      Feel the hurt.

      • QoT 13.2.1

        … go on, then, since you know so much about me. After your insights into felix I am of course breathless with anticipation.

        • Cactus Kate

          I’ve no idea who you are and don’t particularly care. I’ve come across similar “waa waa ” anti lawyer attitudes in the IRD though. You know the sort that chucks mounds of shit at other people then complains in faux horror when they receive it back from a lawyer/doctor/engineer/MP that they shouldn’t talk like that back at them.

      • Crashcart 13.2.2

        Shows even rich people can be really stupid with money.

        • Cactus Kate

          Yeah much better to give it to people like you to deal with people like….Ergh…what imaginary profession are you in again?

    • deuto 13.3

      And it could have been so much more fun if WO and SL had joined in if they had not been off hunting together, as stated by CK. Perhaps Juanita, the Spanish wife, is minding the shop – or perhaps that should read the sewer.

      I am sure PG will deny it all in the morning when he is the first on Open Mike.

      • Cactus Kate 13.3.1

        Spanish Bride would hand you your arse any day of the week. Don’t ask for what you can’t handle.
        Now your third attempt at being tucked in.
        Third strike really.

        • fender

          You’re a lawyer ? Wouldn’t get much work if people read the crap you post.

          But have a good time in Bangkok, be careful some other weirdo doesn’t slip contraband in one of your many liquor bottle bags, would hate to see you have an extended holiday with Michelle Corby.

  13. Crashcart 14

    Feel free to assume I am on the dole or something. Doesn’t really matter what I tell you because you’re opinion of me means so little. Then again I’m not a known lawyer currently making an ass of myself on the internet. I’m random internet guy.

    • Cactus Kate 14.1

      Or girl. You could be a lawyer for all we know. I reckon an Immigration one. Poorly paid.

      • mickysavage 14.1.1

        Since when is the size of your income a measurement of your true worth?

        Just asking … 

      • North 14.1.2

        What’s all this shrieked and spittled hectoring coming from The Peninsula ? CK should be careful………will be asked to leave “poolside” soon, or at least cease imbibing .

  14. Crashcart 15

    As I say my profession, if I have one, in no way bears upon the validity of the current argument. I conceed there are circumstances where it would. Perhaps in this case if I were a national party staffer. Similar to my location. If I were sitting next to Slater posting this then I would have some valid insite. Other wise my location only confirms that I am trying to draw information as opposed to providing it.

    I like you, your silly.

  15. [look mate, the value of a blog like this is not just the non-msm analysis of events but the insight into things that don’t make the msm. As Farrar, interestingly, pointed out the other day on the topic of the ACC scandal, the really interesting stuff is never in writing; there is no physical proof to present..]

    But there is credibily behind what is being said about it, or not. People who have a history of apparent exaggeration tend to get viewed with skepticism when they write what appears to be exaggerated claims with no evidence.

    Now, you don’t have to believe every bit of insider gossip you read, you would be a fool to do so, but dismissing anything of that nature on the grounds of lack of hard proof is also silly.

    Dismissing everything is silly, but accepting without question is sillier, especially when it’s said by the opposition. Every bit of insider gossip should be also viewed with a lot of skepticism. Some will be true , some of it exaggerated or slanted, and some will be false.

    As for whether the posts could be scheduled -they refer to Thursday’s poll and Slater said he was going away on Friday. So he would have had to write all those posts in the one evening.

    That doesn’t seem incredible, you can write quite a bit in an evening.

    Also, he said post volume would be down because he wouldn’t have time. And one of the posts refers to being in Havelock North. Lusk is based .there, I understand. Eddie]

    You stated “Lusk writing as Whaleoil” based on this? That’s not insider information or gossip, it’s a fairly flimsy assumption. And is turns out, quite probably a false assumption.

    Otane and Putorino
    by Whaleoil on April 8, 2012

    Yesterday I spent the morning writing blog posts…apparently you can’t hunt and blog at the same time…in the afternoon I went back to the vineyard at Otane I was at yesterday and spent the afternoon shooting waxeyes and starlings again.

    Before that I picked up some supplies in Hastings.

    While Whale could be lying and fabricating a detailed story that seems quite plausible. If you build one story around an easily refuted fact it raises the skepticism factor on the rest, if unsubstantiated.

    You’ve made many statements as claims and accusations on the ACC/Pullar story. Some may well turn out to be correct (a Winston Peters scattergun ratio maybe) but I think there’s good reason to expect a low hit rate.

    Wilted with wolf wail wantonness.

    • deuto 16.1

      “There’s none so blind as those who will not see.”


      • tsmithfield 16.1.2

        “There’s none so blind as those who will not see.”

        See what?

        What Eddie has been doing is something like drawing the shape of an elephant when there is only several dots IMO.

        In my opinion, Eddie is free to speculate what he likes. However, the credibility rating should be considered quite low until more actual evidence appears.

        • Colonial Viper

          tsmithfield lecturing others about “credibility” lolololololol

          • tsmithfield

            So, the best you’ve got is an ad hominem attack??

            Even if what you imply is correct, two wrongs don’t make a right. How about addressing the point.

            • Colonial Viper

              I have no problem with delivering ad hominem attacks. If you hadn’t noticed, this is politics, and credibility (of both the accuser and victim) goes to the heart of the issues.

              [Yeah but it gets boring CV…RL]

    • ghostwhowalksnz 16.2

      I note the sheep station at Putorino , on the Napier Wairoa Rd is owned by Cornelius Peet and Sandra Gilbert. Are they acquaintances of Lusk and his Hawkes Bay mafia?

    • ghostwhowalksnz 16.3

      There are text analysis programs which can work out if there are different writers for the blog.

      Most of the posts are split into cut and paste which have too little original words to check but a few are longer.

      Its easy enough to check back a few years when it was clear the Uxorious Orca was doing his own stuff.

      Of course , the ‘double headed theory’ isnt denied by the Greasy Cetacean, but it wont stop Gorgeous George from disputing the obvious

  16. RobertM 17

    For John Key being a National MP and then MP was only another business and leadership job in a long career of new positions and upward mobility. At a certain point being PM will lose its novelty and too much pain and John will do something else. For me the issue has nothing to do with JOhn Key or Judith Collins being leader, obviously Collins would be more forceful and possibly not in my interest or favour. But its got nothing to do with it. My blogs and contributions on the Puller, ACA , Boag and other related issues is aimed at finishing Nicks Smiths political career at the National level and also ending Bill English hold on the Finance Ministry and his do nothing , managed decline policy re NZ and the economy and society. Also I strong object to the moral conservatism of English and Smith, as I consider NZ’s anti sex society and refusal to acknowledge the superiority of intelligence and beauty over the ordianary is whats wrong with the kiwis

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