National needs better lawyers
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12:06 pm, June 8th, 2022 - 68 comments
Categories: Christopher Luxon, crime, national, police, same old national -
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The civil war between the Killer Beez and the Tribesman have provided National with the chance of banging the law and order drum. And banging it they are.
This morning Christopher Luxon was reported by Radio New Zealand as follows:
A rivalry between the Tribesmen and Killer Beez gangs has spurred an increase in shootings, up to eight in a single night in Auckland. Luxon said New Zealanders were feeling unsafe.
“It’s another night, another shooting. There’s been 23 shootings in two weeks; violent crime is up 21 percent; gang members are up 40 percent. That’s the reality that New Zealanders are facing.”
He said police did not have the tools they needed to deal with the gangs.
“They want to do the job, they … have the capability to respond to crime, but they don’t have the tools.”
…
He called for the firearm prohibition orders that police wanted in 2017. The government has worked on introducing FPOs but they do not grant warrantless search powers.
“We’ve had two members bills that the government rejected around them, and they give police the powers to actually search our gang members and issue firearm prohibition orders and to seize those illegal guns,” Luxon said.
He said such a tool would allow police to search gang members and gang pads for illegal guns without a warrant.
He clearly has no idea what the current law says because the law already allows this. Section 18 of the Search and Surveillance Act 2012 allows for warrantless searches of individuals if a constable has reasonable grounds to suspect that a person is in possession or control of arms and is either in breach of the Arms Act 1983 or because of his physical or mental condition either is incapable of having proper control of the arms or may kill or cause bodily injury to any person. It is not clear if Luxon thinks the law should be even more permissive. Parliament could grant the Police the power to search anyone anywhere at any time but I am not sure this is the sort of country that most of us would then want to live in.
Luxon calling for Firearms Prohibition orders is something that the Government is addressing. The Firearms Prohibition Orders Legislation Bill is currently at Select Committee and was introduced earlier this year. Consultation on the Bill started in January 2020. Interestingly three National speakers talked during the Parliamentary debate about the need for warrantless search powers. I sense a pattern here.
To be frank the talk about expanding powers does not get us very far. The best response to crime is to have a sufficiently resourced police force. Labour’s significant increase in police numbers should be compared to National’s running down of the police numbers particularly compared to the population. At June 30 2017 there were 8,955 constabulary employees. By June 30, 2021 this number had increased to 10,219.
And the primary cause, Australia evicting all of its 501s, is not something this Government, or the previous Government, has control of. Jacinda Ardern will no doubt raise it with Anthony Albanese this week when she visits and the chances of improvement are currently the best they have ever been.
Jarrod Gilbert’s statement deserves repeating:
[S]ociologist and gangs researcher Jarrod Gilbert yesterday said New Zealand had seen this kind of gang crime before.
He said people should be wary of politicians promising to lay down the law, particularly when in opposition, adding that legislative change was unlikely to make much of a difference.
Gilbert said solutions needed to target specific problems, rather than targeting the gangs.
We do need to address the causes of crime. National appears instead to just want to stoke up fear for political advantage.
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- Release: Commitment to disability communities missing from Govt prioritiesMinister for Disability Issues Penny Simmonds appears to have delayed a report back to Cabinet on the progress New Zealand is making against international obligations for disabled New Zealanders. ...2 weeks ago
- Methane target review is dangerous duplicationThe Government’s newly announced review of methane emissions reduction targets hints at its desire to delay Aotearoa New Zealand’s urgent transition to a climate safe future, the Green Party said. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Government must commit to school building project for disabled studentsThe Government must commit to the Maitai School building project for students with high and complex needs, to ensure disabled students from the top of the South Island have somewhere to learn. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: National must take mental health seriouslyMental Health Minister Matt Doocey and his Government colleagues have made a meal of their mental health commitments, showing how flimsy their efforts to champion the issue truly are, says Labour Mental Health spokesperson Ingrid Leary. ...2 weeks ago
- Referendums for Māori wards a racist step backwardsThe Government's imposed referendum on Māori wards is a racist step backwards for Māori representation, and disregards Te Tiriti o Waitangi. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Job losses at Health not worth it for tax cutsNew Zealand will feel the harm of the National Government’s reckless cuts to jobs at the health ministry for generations, says Ayesha Verrall. ...2 weeks ago
- Press release: No Māori initiatives in Government’s nothing planMāori are yet to see anything from this Government except cuts, reversals and taking our people backwards, Māori Development spokesperson Willie Jackson said. ...2 weeks ago
- Thirty six point PR spinThe Government’s ‘36 point’ plan for the next three months is as pointless as it is hollow. ...2 weeks ago
- Thirty six point PR spinThe Government’s ‘36 point’ plan for the next three months is as pointless as it is hollow. ...2 weeks ago
- Thirty six point PR spinThe Government’s ‘36 point’ plan for the next three months is as pointless as it is hollow. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Social housing off Government’s to-do listThe Coalition Government’s refusal to commit to ongoing funding for social housing is seeing the sector pull back on developments and families watch their dreams of securing a home fade away, says Labour Housing spokesperson Kieran McAnulty. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Less money in most people’s pockets this AprilChanges to minimum wage and benefit indexation means many New Zealanders will get less this year, as the Government gives a big tax break to landlords instead. ...3 weeks ago
- $41m to support clean energy in South East Asia
New Zealand is demonstrating its commitment to reducing global greenhouse emissions, and supporting clean energy transition in South East Asia, through a contribution of NZ$41 million (US$25 million) in climate finance to the Asian Development Bank (ADB)-led Energy Transition Mechanism (ETM). Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Climate Change Minister Simon Watts announced ...6 hours ago - Minister releases Fast-track stakeholder listThe Government is today releasing a list of organisations who received letters about the Fast-track applications process, says RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop. “Recently Ministers and agencies have received a series of OIA requests for a list of organisations to whom I wrote with information on applying to have a ...8 hours ago
- Judicial appointments announcedAttorney-General Judith Collins today announced the appointment of Wellington Barrister David Jonathan Boldt as a Judge of the High Court, and the Honourable Justice Matthew Palmer as a Judge of the Court of Appeal. Justice Boldt graduated with an LLB from Victoria University of Wellington in 1990, and also holds ...9 hours ago
- Education Minister heads to major teaching summit in SingaporeEducation Minister Erica Stanford will lead the New Zealand delegation at the 2024 International Summit on the Teaching Profession (ISTP) held in Singapore. The delegation includes representatives from the Post Primary Teachers’ Association (PPTA) Te Wehengarua and the New Zealand Educational Institute (NZEI) Te Riu Roa. The summit is co-hosted ...10 hours ago
- Value of stopbank project proven during cycloneA stopbank upgrade project in Tairawhiti partly funded by the Government has increased flood resilience for around 7000ha of residential and horticultural land so far, Regional Development Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones today attended a dawn service in Gisborne to mark the end of the first stage of the ...10 hours ago
- Anzac commemorations, Türkiye relationship focus of visitForeign Affairs Minister Winston Peters will represent the Government at Anzac Day commemorations on the Gallipoli Peninsula next week and engage with senior representatives of the Turkish government in Istanbul. “The Gallipoli campaign is a defining event in our history. It will be a privilege to share the occasion ...10 hours ago
- Minister to Europe for OECD meeting, Anzac DayScience, Innovation and Technology and Defence Minister Judith Collins will next week attend the OECD Science and Technology Ministerial conference in Paris and Anzac Day commemorations in Belgium. “Science, innovation and technology have a major role to play in rebuilding our economy and achieving better health, environmental and social outcomes ...12 hours ago
- Comprehensive Partnership the goal for NZ and the PhilippinesPrime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with the President of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr. The Prime Minister was accompanied by MP Paulo Garcia, the first Filipino to be elected to a legislature outside the Philippines. During today’s meeting, Prime Minister Luxon and President Marcos Jr discussed opportunities to ...24 hours ago
- Government commits $20m to Westport flood protectionThe Government has announced that $20 million in funding will be made available to Westport to fund much needed flood protection around the town. This measure will significantly improve the resilience of the community, says Local Government Minister Simeon Brown. “The Westport community has already been allocated almost $3 million ...1 day ago
- Taupō takes pole positionThe Government is proud to support the first ever Repco Supercars Championship event in Taupō as up to 70,000 motorsport fans attend the Taupō International Motorsport Park this weekend, says Economic Development Minister Melissa Lee. “Anticipation for the ITM Taupō Super400 is huge, with tickets and accommodation selling out weeks ...1 day ago
- Cost of living support for low-income homeownersLocal Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced an increase to the Rates Rebate Scheme, putting money back into the pockets of low-income homeowners. “The coalition Government is committed to bringing down the cost of living for New Zealanders. That includes targeted support for those Kiwis who are doing things tough, such ...1 day ago
- Government backing mussel spat projectThe Coalition Government is investing in a project to boost survival rates of New Zealand mussels and grow the industry, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones has announced. “This project seeks to increase the resilience of our mussels and significantly boost the sector’s productivity,” Mr Jones says. “The project - ...1 day ago
- Government focused on getting people into workBenefit figures released today underscore the importance of the Government’s plan to rebuild the economy and have 50,000 fewer people on Jobseeker Support, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “Benefit numbers are still significantly higher than when National was last in government, when there was about 70,000 fewer ...1 day ago
- Clean energy key driver to reducing emissionsThe Government’s commitment to doubling New Zealand’s renewable energy capacity is backed by new data showing that clean energy has helped the country reach its lowest annual gross emissions since 1999, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. New Zealand’s latest Greenhouse Gas Inventory (1990-2022) published today, shows gross emissions fell ...2 days ago
- Earthquake-prone buildings review brought forwardThe Government is bringing the earthquake-prone building review forward, with work to start immediately, and extending the deadline for remediations by four years, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “Our Government is focused on rebuilding the economy. A key part of our plan is to cut red tape that ...2 days ago
- Thailand and NZ to agree to Strategic PartnershipPrime Minister Christopher Luxon and his Thai counterpart, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, have today agreed that New Zealand and the Kingdom of Thailand will upgrade the bilateral relationship to a Strategic Partnership by 2026. “New Zealand and Thailand have a lot to offer each other. We have a strong mutual desire to build ...2 days ago
- Government consults on extending coastal permits for portsRMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop and Transport Minister Simeon Brown have today announced the Coalition Government’s intention to extend port coastal permits for a further 20 years, providing port operators with certainty to continue their operations. “The introduction of the Resource Management Act in 1991 required ports to obtain coastal ...2 days ago
- Inflation coming down, but more work to doToday’s announcement that inflation is down to 4 per cent is encouraging news for Kiwis, but there is more work to be done - underlining the importance of the Government’s plan to get the economy back on track, acting Finance Minister Chris Bishop says. “Inflation is now at 4 per ...2 days ago
- School attendance restored as a priority in health adviceRefreshed health guidance released today will help parents and schools make informed decisions about whether their child needs to be in school, addressing one of the key issues affecting school attendance, says Associate Education Minister David Seymour. In recent years, consistently across all school terms, short-term illness or medical reasons ...2 days ago
- Unnecessary bureaucracy cut in oceans sectorOceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones is streamlining high-level oceans management while maintaining a focus on supporting the sector’s role in the export-led recovery of the economy. “I am working to realise the untapped potential of our fishing and aquaculture sector. To achieve that we need to be smarter with ...3 days ago
- Patterson promoting NZ’s wool sector at International CongressAssociate Agriculture Minister Mark Patterson is speaking at the International Wool Textile Organisation Congress in Adelaide, promoting New Zealand wool, and outlining the coalition Government’s support for the revitalisation the sector. "New Zealand’s wool exports reached $400 million in the year to 30 June 2023, and the coalition Government ...3 days ago
- Removing red tape to help early learners thriveThe Government is making legislative changes to make it easier for new early learning services to be established, and for existing services to operate, Associate Education Minister David Seymour says. The changes involve repealing the network approval provisions that apply when someone wants to establish a new early learning service, ...4 days ago
- RMA changes to cut coal mining consent red tapeChanges to the Resource Management Act will align consenting for coal mining to other forms of mining to reduce barriers that are holding back economic development, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “The inconsistent treatment of coal mining compared with other extractive activities is burdensome red tape that fails to acknowledge ...4 days ago
- McClay reaffirms strong NZ-China trade relationshipTrade, Agriculture and Forestry Minister Todd McClay has concluded productive discussions with ministerial counterparts in Beijing today, in support of the New Zealand-China trade and economic relationship. “My meeting with Commerce Minister Wang Wentao reaffirmed the complementary nature of the bilateral trade relationship, with our Free Trade Agreement at its ...4 days ago
- Prime Minister Luxon acknowledges legacy of Singapore Prime Minister LeePrime Minister Christopher Luxon today paid tribute to Singapore’s outgoing Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong. Meeting in Singapore today immediately before Prime Minister Lee announced he was stepping down, Prime Minister Luxon warmly acknowledged his counterpart’s almost twenty years as leader, and the enduring legacy he has left for Singapore and South East ...4 days ago
- PMs Luxon and Lee deepen Singapore-NZ tiesPrime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong. While in Singapore as part of his visit to South East Asia this week, Prime Minister Luxon also met with Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam and will meet with Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong. During today’s meeting, Prime Minister Luxon ...4 days ago
- Antarctica New Zealand Board appointmentsForeign Minister Winston Peters has made further appointments to the Board of Antarctica New Zealand as part of a continued effort to ensure the Scott Base Redevelopment project is delivered in a cost-effective and efficient manner. The Minister has appointed Neville Harris as a new member of the Board. Mr ...4 days ago
- Finance Minister travels to Washington DCFinance Minister Nicola Willis will travel to the United States on Tuesday to attend a meeting of the Five Finance Ministers group, with counterparts from Australia, the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. “I am looking forward to meeting with our Five Finance partners on how we can work ...4 days ago
- Pet bonds a win/win for renters and landlordsThe coalition Government has today announced purrfect and pawsitive changes to the Residential Tenancies Act to give tenants with pets greater choice when looking for a rental property, says Housing Minister Chris Bishop. “Pets are important members of many Kiwi families. It’s estimated that around 64 per cent of New ...4 days ago
- Long Tunnel for SH1 Wellington being consideredState Highway 1 (SH1) through Wellington City is heavily congested at peak times and while planning continues on the duplicate Mt Victoria Tunnel and Basin Reserve project, the Government has also asked NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) to consider and provide advice on a Long Tunnel option, Transport Minister Simeon Brown ...5 days ago
- New Zealand condemns Iranian strikesPrime Minister Christopher Luxon and Foreign Minister Winston Peters have condemned Iran’s shocking and illegal strikes against Israel. “These attacks are a major challenge to peace and stability in a region already under enormous pressure," Mr Luxon says. "We are deeply concerned that miscalculation on any side could ...5 days ago
- Huge interest in Government’s infrastructure plansHundreds of people in little over a week have turned out in Northland to hear Regional Development Minister Shane Jones speak about plans for boosting the regional economy through infrastructure. About 200 people from the infrastructure and associated sectors attended an event headlined by Mr Jones in Whangarei today. Last ...1 week ago
- Health Minister thanks outgoing Health New Zealand ChairHealth Minister Dr Shane Reti has today thanked outgoing Health New Zealand – Te Whatu Ora Chair Dame Karen Poutasi for her service on the Board. “Dame Karen tendered her resignation as Chair and as a member of the Board today,” says Dr Reti. “I have asked her to ...1 week ago
- Roads of National Significance planning underwayThe NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) has signalled their proposed delivery approach for the Government’s 15 Roads of National Significance (RoNS), with the release of the State Highway Investment Proposal (SHIP) today, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Boosting economic growth and productivity is a key part of the Government’s plan to ...1 week ago
- Navigating an unstable global environmentNew Zealand is renewing its connections with a world facing urgent challenges by pursuing an active, energetic foreign policy, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “Our country faces the most unstable global environment in decades,” Mr Peters says at the conclusion of two weeks of engagements in Egypt, Europe and the United States. “We cannot afford to sit back in splendid ...1 week ago
- NZ welcomes Australian Governor-GeneralPrime Minister Christopher Luxon has announced the Australian Governor-General, His Excellency General The Honourable David Hurley and his wife Her Excellency Mrs Linda Hurley, will make a State visit to New Zealand from Tuesday 16 April to Thursday 18 April. The visit reciprocates the State visit of former Governor-General Dame Patsy Reddy ...1 week ago
- Pseudoephedrine back on shelves for WinterAssociate Health Minister David Seymour has announced that Medsafe has approved 11 cold and flu medicines containing pseudoephedrine. Pharmaceutical suppliers have indicated they may be able to supply the first products in June. “This is much earlier than the original expectation of medicines being available by 2025. The Government recognised ...1 week ago
- NZ and the US: an ever closer partnershipNew Zealand and the United States have recommitted to their strategic partnership in Washington DC today, pledging to work ever more closely together in support of shared values and interests, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “The strategic environment that New Zealand and the United States face is considerably more ...1 week ago
- Joint US and NZ declarationApril 11, 2024 Joint Declaration by United States Secretary of State the Honorable Antony J. Blinken and New Zealand Minister of Foreign Affairs the Right Honourable Winston Peters We met today in Washington, D.C. to recommit to the historic partnership between our two countries and the principles that underpin it—rule ...1 week ago
- NZ and US to undertake further practical Pacific cooperationForeign Minister Winston Peters has announced further New Zealand cooperation with the United States in the Pacific Islands region through $16.4 million in funding for initiatives in digital connectivity and oceans and fisheries research. “New Zealand can achieve more in the Pacific if we work together more urgently and ...1 week ago
- Communities Against The Fast-track Heartened By ‘Overwhelming’ Public Response; Disgusted By ‘...
With submissions closing today, Macassey-Pickard says groups around the country have been supporting a huge range of people to make their submissions. ...2 hours ago - Renters Rights To Drastically Reduce Under Landlord GovernmentThe Government’s announced changes around tenancy rules set renters’ rights back by nearly a decade. ...2 hours ago
- NZPI Submission on Fast Track Approvals BillOur response to the new legislation is informed by targeted conversations with practitioners working in the system and through an implementation lens. ...2 hours ago
- Fast Track Invite List Includes Most Destructive Industries In New ZealandThe new ‘Fast-track Approvals Bill’ would give just three Ministers the power to approve or deny development projects. They would avoid the usual checks and balances that are in place to protect rivers, land, the ocean, and communities. ...2 hours ago
- Eugene Doyle: Helen Clark on why AUKUS isn’t in New Zealand’s national interest
COMMENTARY: By Eugene Doyle Helen Clark, how I miss you. The former New Zealand Prime Minister — the safest pair of hands this country has had in living memory — gave a masterclass on the importance of maintaining an independent foreign policy when she spoke at an AUKUS symposium held ...2 hours ago - Government releases list of organisations shoulder-tapped for fast-track consents
The government's released the list of organisations provided with information on how to apply - just hours before public submissions on the bill close. ...3 hours ago - The Week in Politics: Job cuts surge and Waitangi Tribunal troubleAnalysis - It's been a grim week for public servants, while trouble is also brewing between the government and Waitangi Tribunal. ...4 hours ago
- It never rains but it pours: intense rain and flash floods have increased inland in eastern Australi...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Milton Speer, Visiting Fellow, School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, University of Technology Sydney Before climate change really got going, eastern Australia’s flash floods tended to concentrate on our coastal regions, east of the Great Dividing Range. But that’s changing. Now ...4 hours ago
- Watch: Christopher Luxon speaks to media in ManilaThe PM has defended how he's talked up NZ trade on his trip to Southeast Asia, after criticism from his own delegation. ...5 hours ago
- ‘It could be the death of the museum’: why research cuts at a South Australian institution have ...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Elizabeth Finkel, Vice-Chancellor’s Fellow, La Trobe University Sia Duff / South Australian Museum In February, the South Australian Museum “re-imagined” itself. In the face of rising costs and inadequate government funds, CEO David Gaimster, who took the reins last June, declared ...5 hours ago
- Government signs off $41m clean energy deal with Asian Development BankThe government has committed $41 million to clean energy transition at the Asian Development Bank's Energy Transition Mechanism. ...5 hours ago
- Are 2 mid-career AFL retirements a sign Australian athletes are taking brain health more seriously?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alan Pearce, Professor, School of Allied Heath, Human Services & Sport, La Trobe University, La Trobe University This week, Collingwood AFL player Nathan Murphy announced his retirement, brought on by his concussion history and ongoing issues. The 24-year-old’s seemingly sudden retirement, ...7 hours ago
- Luxon: Waitangi Tribunal comments from coalition parties 'ill considered'Comments from ACT and NZ First ministers about the Tribunal were "ill considered" and "that message will be underscored" to them, the PM says. ...7 hours ago
- Mental Health Foundation Facing Staff Cuts From Govt Funding SqueezeThe Mental Health Foundation provides support and resources for those facing the loss of their job, so it’s wrong in the very week the Government adds another 1000 jobs to its tally of cuts, that this is happening. ...8 hours ago
- I wholeheartedly recommend The President: a brilliant revival of a play of decay, terror and revulsi...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexander Howard, Senior Lecturer, Discipline of English and Writing, University of Sydney Daniel Boud/Sydney Theatre Company Decay, terror, revulsion. These are three of the central themes of Thomas Bernhard’s rarely performed play The President. The Austrian is one of the greatest ...8 hours ago
- How the coolest little capital is shrinkingIt's not the first time a government has targeted public servants for job cuts, but this time Wellington is really feeling it. ...8 hours ago
- Many prisoners go years without touching a smartphone. It means they struggle to navigate life on th...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ye In (Jane) Hwang, Postdoctoral Research Associate at School of Population Health, UNSW Sydney Shutterstock You’d be hard pressed to find any aspect of daily life that doesn’t require some form of digital literacy. We need only to look back ten ...8 hours ago
- Ministers accused of Cabinet Manual breach with threats to Waitangi Tribunal
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon says threats by ministers Shane Jones and David Seymour to reform or close down the Waitangi Tribunal were “ill-considered”, as legal experts say the ministers may have breached Cabinet Manual conventions. “I think those comments are ill-considered and we expect all ministers to actually exercise good ...8 hours ago - Good news: midlife health is about more than a waist measurement. Here’s whySource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rob Newton, Professor of Exercise Medicine, Edith Cowan University Pexels/RDNE stock project You’re not in your 20s or 30s anymore and you know regular health checks are important. So you go to your GP. During the appointment they measure your waist. ...8 hours ago
- The Friday Poem: ‘Mitochondrial Problem’ by Evangeline Riddiford Graham
A new poem by Evangeline Riddiford Graham. Mitochondrial Problem I. It was long drive to Kansas for the man and his dog but you have to understand he said She doesn’t fly. Which calls to mind not carsick shitting barking or whining but a dog who chooses not to as ...8 hours ago - The Unity Books bestseller chart for the week ending April 18The only published and available best-selling indie book chart in New Zealand is the top 10 sales list recorded every week at Unity Books’ stores in High St, Auckland, and Willis St, Wellington. AUCKLAND 1 Hemingway’s Goblet by Dermot Ross (Mary Egan Publishing, $38) Hot off the press, this debut ...8 hours ago
- Department of Conservation closing Dunedin centre, but no jobs lostVisitor habits are changing and DOC needs to adapt in a financially sustainable way, its operations director says. ...8 hours ago
- Unions Collaborate With Thousands Of Job CutsWith New Zealand officially in recession, a swathe of mass sackings is currently sending shockwaves through the entire working class. ...8 hours ago
- Watch live: Christopher Luxon speaks to media in ManilaPrime Minister Christopher Luxon is speaking to reporters in Manila after pledging greater defence cooperation with the Philippines. Watch live. ...9 hours ago
- Government sent please explain letter to Wellington City Council over transport disagreementThe contents were revealed in correspondence from Simeon Brown and Chris Bishop to Wellington's Mayor. ...9 hours ago
- Some families push back against journalists who mine social media for photos – they have every rig...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Laura Wajnryb McDonald, PhD candidate in Criminology, University of Sydney Less than 24 hours after Ashlee Good was murdered in Bondi Junction, her family released a statement requesting the media take down photographs they had reproduced of Ashlee and her family without ...9 hours ago
- Mental Health Foundation staff cuts loom, with funding falling behind rising costsChief executive Shaun Robinson said it has not had any government funding cut, but government-funded contracts have not kept pace with rising costs. ...9 hours ago
- The ‘devil comet’ 12P/Pons-Brooks has finally become visible from Australia. What can we expect?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jonti Horner, Professor (Astrophysics), University of Southern Queensland Pons–Brooks visible from Utah, March 9 2024. James Peirce/Flickr, CC BY-NC-ND If you’re a fan of all things space, you’ve doubtless heard about the “devil comet”, which has been captivating keen-eyed observers in the ...10 hours ago
- Rugby stadiums are sold as an economic asset – but NZ needs to ask if they’re really worth itSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Robert Hamlin, Senior Lecturer in Marketing , University of Otago A multi-billion dollar stadium precinct has been proposed for Auckland, one of three proposals in front of Auckland Council for a new stadium in the city. The council is also considering revamping ...10 hours ago
- Auckland dog attacks: Callouts for attacks on other animals going upRoaming dogs are responsible for more than a thousand attacks on animals each year, and the number is growing. ...10 hours ago
- What access to puberty blockers means for trans young people and their whānauThe Ministry of Health has delayed the release of its evidence brief on the safety, reversibility and mental health and wellbeing outcomes for puberty blockers. While we wait, Julia de Bres speaks to those with firsthand experience. Best practice gender-affirming healthcare is based on trans people’s self-determination and agency. The ...10 hours ago
- NZ and Philippines pledge defence cooperation amid rising tensionsThe commitment came after a sit-down meeting between Christopher Luxon and President Ferdinand "Bongbong" Romualdez Marcos Jr overnight. ...11 hours ago
- How superblocks can help reimagine city lifeBarcelona’s city streets have gone from traffic-clogged to pedestrian-friendly. How? Superblocks. Ellen Rykers explains. This is an excerpt from our weekly environmental newsletter Future Proof. Sign up here. Last week I read a great interview with renowned urbanist Janette Sadik-Khan by The Spinoff’s Wellington editor Joel MacManus: “You can reimagine streets, ...12 hours ago
- Fire engineering expertise may take a big hit with job cuts at MBIEThe public sector cuts are poised to take out a big chunk of expertise at the country's building regulator. ...12 hours ago
- “Fast-track Law To Kill Kiwi”: Students Say Fight Against Anti-democracy Legislation Is Only Jus...Student groups ‘Climate Action VUW’, Schools Strike 4 Climate and VUWSA will be on the street in Wellington today, the last day for submissions on the Fast-track Approvals Bill, with a message that the fight against the Government’s ‘War on ...13 hours ago
- ‘We have thousands of Modis’: the secret behind the BJP’s enduring success in IndiaSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sofia Ammassari, Research Fellow, Griffith University Since 2014, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity has grown exponentially – and so has the formidable organisational machine of his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). These two factors will be key to delivering the BJP a ...13 hours ago
- Online schooling is not just for lockdowns. Could it work for your child?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brendon Hyndman, Associate Professor of Education (Adjunct) & Senior Manager (BCE), Charles Sturt University During COVID almost all Australian students and their families experienced online learning. But while schools have long since gone back to in-person teaching, online learning has not gone ...13 hours ago
- Hear me out: You can shove your reusable period productsYes, they’re better for the environment. No, that’s not a good enough reason for me to use them. Once every 26 days or so, my period arrives, and if struck by an act of God, I am caught red-crotched without products. How, after 17 years of this, do I still ...13 hours ago
- Rip It Up And Start Over – Fast-Track Approvals Bill Needs To Be Scrapped“It will cause significant harm to our environment and communities. It is completely at odds with New Zealanders’ relationship with nature and our need for a low-carbon, sustainable economic future." ...13 hours ago
- Maori Authority Warns Government On Fast Track LegislationThe Chair of the National Maori Authority, Matthew Tukaki, has warned a Parliamentary Select Committee that fast-tracking legislation is a perilous practice that undermines the core tenets of democracy, transparency, and accountability. ...14 hours ago
- Why the government’s haste in changing the health system could come back to haunt itSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tim Tenbensel, Associate Professor, Health Policy, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau Getty Images Since coming into power, the coalition government has adopted a simple but shrewd see-how-fast-we-can-move political strategy. However, in the health sector this need for speed entails ...14 hours ago
- Many suicides are related to gambling. How can we tackle this problem?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anastasia Hronis, Clinical Psychologist, University of Technology Sydney Darya Sannikova/Pexels Whether you’re watching TV, attending a footy game, or eating a meal at your local pub, gambling is hard to escape. Although the rise of gambling is not unique to Australia, ...14 hours ago
- Things that go buzz in the night – our global study found there really are more insects out after ...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mark Wong, Forrest Fellow, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Western Australia Have you ever wondered if there are more insects out at night than during the day? We set out to answer this question by combing through the scientific ...14 hours ago
- Why don’t Australians talk about their salaries? Pay transparency and fairness go hand-in-handSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Carol T Kulik, Research Professor, University of South Australia IR Stone/Shutterstock In Australia, it’s not the done thing to know – let alone ask – what our colleagues are paid. Yet, it’s easy to see how pay transparency can make pay ...14 hours ago
- ‘Character’ And Its Impact On Immigration StatusThe Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) is sounding a warning to migrants, that running foul of the law may see them leaving the country prematurely. ...14 hours ago
- 20,000 more on jobseeker benefits than this time last yearThe government’s plan to get 50,000 people off jobseeker support by 2030 has had a rocky start, writes Catherine McGregor in this excerpt from The Bulletin, The Spinoff’s morning news round-up. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here. Beneficiary numbers are up – and so are ...15 hours ago
- All of the Raglan Roast cafes in Wellington, ranked from worst to bestRaglan Roast is a staple of Wellington coffee culture. But with five branches across the capital, which one is the best? I am a die-hard Raglan Roast fan. It’s consistently the most affordable cafe in Wellington, and one of the only places you can get a coffee after 3pm. So, ...17 hours ago
- Auckland uni students threaten rent strike over rising accommodation feesResidents of University of Auckland halls are being urged to withhold their accommodation fees from May 1, in a bid to force the university to take student concerns over rent hikes seriously. The University of Auckland is facing a strike from students over the cost of on-campus accommodation. The Students ...17 hours ago
- Missy rustles to stardom in CanadaHineaupounamu ‘Missy’ Nuku has been scaling mountains in Canada for her college basketball team, the Lakeland Rustlers. Alberta is currently home for the 20-year-old point guard, who is in her first year of a scholarship at Lakeland College, where she is studying for a business degree. She has certainly made ...17 hours ago
- Emissions fall again – now NZ needs to up the paceOfficial figures confirm New Zealand produced less climate pollution in 2022 than in any other year in the 21st century The post Emissions fall again – now NZ needs to up the pace appeared first on Newsroom. ...17 hours ago
- Warning of death from a million cuts as Oceans Secretariat dissolvedShane Jones says people voted for change, but opponents say small cuts such as ending a special oceans secretariat are starting to add up The post Warning of death from a million cuts as Oceans Secretariat dissolved appeared first on Newsroom. ...17 hours ago
- Defence deal to counter Beijing’s aggression in South China SeaNew Zealand and the Philippines have signed a new maritime security agreement and stated their concerns over activity in the South China Sea, as Chinese vessels continue to flout international law. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Philippines President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos committed to signing a Mutual Logistics Supporting Arrangement by ...17 hours ago
- Wellington’s ebb and flow of public servantsThe thousands of government “back-office” job cuts are causing widespread pain in the capital city. In today’s episode of The Detail, we speak to three journalists and a think tank researcher, looking at the larger picture around the cuts and what effect it will have on Wellington, a city that’s ...17 hours ago
- New Zealand transport planning has gone off the railsOpinion: The famed American architect and urban designer Daniel Burnham once said, “Make no little plans. They have no magic to stir men’s blood!” Burnham wouldn’t have been referring to the transport plans in Aotearoa New Zealand over the past five years; projects so big they hadn’t the credibility to ...17 hours ago
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Would it be too cynical for me to suggest the more rabid Adern haters would stoke this gun violence going by driving around Auckland popping off a few random shots from time to time.
False flag
ISTR that Ardern has always said that we are not playing tit-for-tat over the 501s, but it really is time that we returned the favour and started deporting miscreant Aussies
If the issue is the causes of crime how come violent crime is increasing when inequality and poverty is supposedly falling?
What other causes of crime might there be, apart from inequality and poverty?
What evidence do you have that these latter are actually falling, 'supposedly'?
“Despite Covid-19 causing the greatest global economic downturn since the Great Depression the Government has delivered reductions in child poverty across all nine measures,” Arden, who is the minister for child poverty reduction, said in a statement.
Over the past four years, this Government’s policies have reduced all nine official measures of child poverty compared to the baseline year. Since coming into Government we have lifted 18,000 children out of material hardship and 43,300 fewer children are in poverty since 2017/18. Our main benefit increases announced in Budget 21 are projected to lift a further 33,000 children out poverty.
Is she right or wrong?
Took a while for Nationals destruction of education to take effect on outcomes.
It will similarly take a while, for an improvement on child poverty, to effect crime rates.
Only in Hosking land does things work instantly.
How long will it take for the crime stats to start dropping? What is the cause/effect time frame?
Show us if there really is a rise, or just a blip in a longer term decline in crime rates, of certain types of crime, accentuated by covid and 501's?
Do you really think a decrease in poverty for children, who are mostly under the age that commit crimes, is going to show up in crime rates, before that cohort gets to an age to commit crimes. Most of the current crop of young criminals, would have been growing up during National's "living in cars'" era. Very youngest are 11 or 12. Most are mid to late teens, early twenties, not 4 1/2.
The effects of reduction in crime policies now, can be expected to start showing in 5 to 20 years.
Show us if there really is a rise,
Done.
"The effects of reduction in crime policies now, can be expected to start showing in 5 to 20 years."
What are these 'reduction in crime' policies you speak of?
Oh, FFS. We've been talking about them.
Well poverty and inequality have been mentioned. If you're suggesting these are the issues that are the cause of crime, and crime won't come down until they are addressed, then you need to have a chat to Poto Williams.
Gosman was the one who suggested poverty and inequality. I asked him the questions. What other causes and where is the evidence?
Ah, things take a long time to have an impact. How long do you reckon a Mother of All Budgets will go 30ish years down the track?
Earlier in the week I came across a pile of stuff from the late 1980s and early 1990 to do with education. I'd suggested that for all the restructuring and upheaval of schooling that was to happen and was happening, that there was one critical question: "How will children's learning be improved?"
(Similarly, some years later when it was decided that there were problems with learning, the question was about whether National Standards was The Answer. Recent international results and the dismay provide a line on whether the hopes were realised.)
So the real biding solutions to the gang problem? Taking their patches off them? It seems the answer to all the cliffs we direct people to is to have more and more ambulances at the bottom. Jesus wept.
I sympathise, Peter.
"What other causes and where is the evidence?"
There are many causes of crime, and the right and left argue across each other in an effort to justify their particular policy prescription. There's also the issue of personal responsibility – to what extent can or should we lay blame for our own bad decisions on society more broadly. In NZ's specific context, I believe gangs are a big factor, as is substance abuse and the totally inadequate way we deal with mental illness. None of this isn’t easy, but we have to admit we have a problem before we can try to solve it.
Show us the stats that violent crime has been increasing.
Crime Snapshot | New Zealand Police
Based on the data from 1 April 2021 through 31 March 2022, violent crime (as defined by the Police) has risen from 30,342 to 31,665 across NZ, a rise of around 4.5%.
For the year ended 31 March 2021, there was increase of 3.3%.
For the year ended 31 March 2020, there was an increase of around 5%.
Despite claims NZ's policing is too 'woke', crime rates are largely static — and even declining (theconversation.com)
The change in rates is not unusual. There have been bigger year on year changes in crime rates in the past.
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/NZL/new-zealand/crime-rate-statistics
So your response to actual Police data is an opinion piece that looks at data that is 2 years old. Seriously?
PS – Gosman and Incognito specifically referred to ‘violent’ crime, which is the data set I quoted. Nevertheless, you have used data that is well out of date. Total crime for the year to 31 March 2022 was up by nearly 20% (205,752 to 246,657).
Which is relevant to assessing it is a trend, or a blip.
And to show that a 4.5% swing is actually not unusual.
And evidence of an overall longer term decline in crime rates.
Which shows that National’s carefully nurtured BS about “crime out of control” is fiction.
2015 had a 10.5 % increase in the murder homicide rate. From a 7.5% decrease the year before. I betcha National wasn’t going on about “crime out of control” then.
Three consecutive years of increases is not a 'blip'.
Make that 4. In the year to 31 March 2019, violent crime went up 10%.\
Remember this is violent crime. You know, assault, sexual assault, abductions. I'll let some of the victims know you think it's just a blip, I'm sure they'll feel so much better.
What would you tell the victims in 2015? Doesn't matter because it would have embarrassed National?
I'd tell them we need better solutions to crime. The same thing I'd be telling them now.
In reality you wouldn't have given a stuff.
Because like National now, you couldn't care less about crime victims, except as something to attack Labour Greens over.
"In reality you wouldn't have given a stuff."
In reality I have a daughter who has been a recent victim of crime. In reality I volunteer with a community organisation that deals with youth victims of crime. In reality I support solutions that get real results, and far quicker than 'start showing in 5-20 years'.
"In reality" there are buggerrall solutions that are instant.
Which is why those who pretend there can be, are blowing smoke.
As you well know if you have been involved in the area.
By the way my ex apprentices, that were gang based and involved in crime, when they started with us, have been gainfully employed, and on the straight and narrow for years.
What a bit of care and attention can do.
"By the way my ex apprentices, that were gang based and involved in crime, when they started with us, have been gainfully employed, and on the straight and narrow for years."
Yep, I’ve seen the same outcomes in the workplace and on marae. Well done.
Thank you, so informative.
From 1 June 2021 to 31 May 2022, i.e. the most recent 12-month period, violent crime went down from 32,836 to 28,722; it dropped in all 4 categories of violent crime.
https://www.police.govt.nz/crime-snapshot-0
You love to use quote & stats that suit your narrative, don’t you?
https://www.police.govt.nz/sites/default/files/publications/crime-at-a-glance-dec2020.pdf
Gosman and you should change your tune before I take the wind out it
You've cherry picked to get the result you wanted. The data set you've nicely cajoled is barely 10 days old. You do know the problem with that, right?
Using consistent year end dates, and not cherry picking, the data shows a steady increase in violent crime:
For the year ended 31 March 2022, violent crime (as defined by the Police) has risen from 30,342 to 31,665 across NZ, a rise of around 4.5%.
For the year ended 31 March 2021, there was increase of 3.3%.
For the year ended 31 March 2020, there was an increase of around 5%.
For the year ended 31 March 2019, there was an increase of 10%.
The wind is coming from you.
Holding a mirror up to you to reflect back your own behaviour of selective quoting and cherry-picking data to suit your narrative but which don’t actually constitute a decent argument (aka variations on a theme). You have been doing this here for a long time, too long.
It is quite common to use the most recent data available. Isn’t it the current meme that violent crime has recently gone up 'explosively' and 'exponentially'? Can’t see it in the data from NZ Police, can you? Perhaps the cops are a little behind on their paperwork and it will filter through next month?
Arguably, it is the most objective to use the most recent period and up to the present day if possible, and it is possible. You failed on that point. You also failed to show the huge fluctuations in the data, which is why carefully selecting the date periods can make such an apparent big difference. Of course, taking your comments at face value one would expect a straight steep line upwards over the last 2.33 years, but the reality is quite different, isn’t it, as is clearly shown in the graph in the link.
You can always try to find other data sets that show what you want to show. If you’re desperate enough. Ironically, I asked Gosman, not you, and you’re letting the air escape.
Your tyres have fully deflated.
You used data from 2020, and from a random month without any longer term historical comparisons. I used data over a succession of years for consistent time periods that shows a clear pattern. I'll leave others to decide who is cherry picking.
Meanwhile:
[deleted]
The graph in the link to NZ Police website covers all 4 categories of violent crime since 1 January 2020. I’ll leave others to decide who is cherry picking and whether crime is increasing as you imply.
Meanwhile, you’re in Pre-Moderation awaiting your retraction and apology.
Gypsy do you know what happens when more police are on the beat? The crime rate goes up. Also when you create new offences, as this Government has, the crime rate goes up.
Incognito has pointed out to you the flaws in your argument. Holding magically to certain data and saying that it is conclusive proof that everything is bad does not wash.
Best to avoid inconvenient data and only talk about the convenient data eh?
…and all crime has risen from 203,813 at March 2018 to 246,657 at March 2022, an increase in 4 years of 21%.
But there's no problem, eh?
(and you do know we’re in 2022, right?)
[Putting words in my mouth now?
Point to my comment under this Post where I said or even implied that there’s no problem with violent crime or even just crime in general in NZ. Or correct & apologise. Or take a week off. You’re in Pre-Moderation until you respond – Incognito]
Mod note
I think your just a bit sensitive at the moment. Completely understandable.
Just hungry, but dinner is almost ready.
Ah, I understand. Enjoy. I didn't ,mean to imply YOU didn't think there was a problem btw. It was a general observation about what seems to me to be the level of denial coming out of government. Still, I'll take my medicine. See you in a week.
Not much of an apology, but I’ll take it anyway because dinner was nice and so is the coffee.
When discussing crime data, or any data for that matter, whether between Government, MSM, or Opposition, or here on TS and when one claims an increase or decrease or whatever, they have to back it up, with links and a commentary + explanation. Disagreeing about a change over time doesn’t mean stating or even believing that there’s no problem. For example, a high baseline with no change is a problem, while a low baseline with no change is much less or no problem at all.
So far, nobody here today has shown conclusively that violent crime in NZ is increasing, at least not over the last 2.33 years since 1 January 2020 according to the NZ Police data that you linked to.
"So far, nobody here today has shown conclusively that violent crime in NZ is increasing, at least not over the last 2.33 years since 1 January 2020 according to the NZ Police data that you linked to."
I’m not quite sure why you’re using 1 January 2020 as a starting point? The link I provided goes back years before that, and the data I listed goes back to 2018.
Edit – I’m curious about the answer to that because it may help explain your other comments.
Why don’t you go to your own link on the NZ Police website, create the graph (Crime type by Month) you want there, starting before 1 Jan 2020, copy it, and paste/post it here? Good luck, because in my experience it doesn’t go back further than 1 Jan 2020 and I’d happily go back further 😉 However, I think that period is a good indication of the violent crimes over recent time and it shows no increase (or decrease) over that period to present day, pretty much, contrary to Gosman’s comment and your claims.
"Why don’t you go to your own link on the NZ Police website, create the graph (Crime type by Month) you want there, starting before 1 Jan 2020, copy it, and paste/post it here? "
The actual data (I never mentioned a graph) is available at the link I provided going back before Jan 2020 (to 2017) by selecting the period beside "reported from"/"to". That's the source of the data I quoted above and it's very easy to access. The graph you're looking at is a monthly rest. You can create any trend you like based on when you start the graph. Start the graph at April 2020 and the graph shows a clear incline, but that too would be misleading.
I quote from the footnote: "Data contained within this report are based on information recorded in the Police dynamic operational database as the 8th of the preceding month. Changes made to source data after this date will not be reflected in this report. For this reason, comparisons between monthly releases should be treated with caution."
One reason for the increase in violent crime was the introduction of strangulation as a new serious offence. Not sure how much impact that has had, but other police reports note as a factor.
what planet do you live on?
The statistical issues have been covered by others – but we know that perception does not always follow reality. Active disinformation is of course rife, and some believe carefully planned through convenient cut-outs like the Taxpayer Union, Counterpoint and others – with National then 'responding' with claims that New Zealanders do not feel safe.
Many will recall similar outcries against the 'surge in burglaries' years ago – an invented crisis is all that is needed . . .
”The civil war between the Killer Beez and the Tribesman have provided National with the chance of banging the law and order drum. And banging it they are.”
That is only part of the story, Mickey. You left out crime in the rest of the country.
''To be frank the talk about expanding powers does not get us very far. The best response to crime is to have a sufficiently resourced police force.''
True.` And I would add a Commissioner who is respected by his front line, and a police minister who is on top of her ministerial role.
''[S]ociologist and gangs researcher Jarrod Gilbert yesterday said New Zealand had seen this kind of gang crime before. Gilbert said solutions needed to target specific problems, rather than targeting the gangs.''
Now, more than ever, is the time to ignore Jarrod Gilbert and people like that perpetual excuse monger, Dennis O'Reilly. That Gilbert believes we have seen this type of gang crime before is disingenuous. We have never seen it on this scale, nor have we seen the crime wave that's garden variety crime and violence.
That said, National deserves the serve they received.
.
Any ideas, Mickey?
Show us the stats.
No need. I don't have any stats, because I don't need them. You are floundering. You don't need stats for everything. Ram raids and shootings nearly ever night, up and down the country. I have lived in this country for most of my life, along with many other people. I know we have never had things this bad.
I nearly observe ''a domestic'' every time I go to the supermarket. That never used to happen. Of course, you want see those incidents registered in official crime figures.
[Show us your stats – Incognito]
Bullshit, Blade. I have lived in this country longer than you have, and I too have read of these things in the sensational press. And there does appear to be a temporary spate. But:
You say, " I have lived in this country for most of my life, along with many other people. I know we have never had things this bad." Me too, and I am calling BULLSHIT. I too go into the supermarket every day, and I have NEVER seen any 'domestic' nearly every time. In fact, I recall none at all.
Many of us in this country are NOT worse off than before. Stop making shit up and pretending to have any concern. You are a troll.
You are making up this rubbish for your silly political purposes. You are full of rubbish. Please go find a better pastime.
''Bullshit, Blade. I have lived in this country longer than you have, and I too have read of these things in the sensational press. And there does appear to be a temporary spate. But: I know we have never had things this bad." Me too, and I am calling BULLSHIT.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6nUTXivusQ4
''Many of us in this country are NOT worse off than before. Stop making shit up and pretending to have any concern. You are a troll.''
No, I really care about victims. Not criminals or white folk living in nice areas pontificating about things they no nothing about. Although you will note of late, eye witnesses saying'' We have never had this type of thing happen in our neighbourhood before.
Quote:
''Aucklanders are regularly confronted with gun violence, organised crime, and rising gang tensions. One of the country’s top police officers says he’s seeing things escalate like he has never seen before.''
"It's not just here, it's everywhere", said a woman who saw police swarm her neighbourhood after a man was shot dead in West Auckland a day later.''
https://www.1news.co.nz/2021/12/26/gangs-and-guns-seeing-stuff-here-that-you-have-never-seen-before/
''You are making up this rubbish for your silly political purposes. You are full of rubbish. Please go find a better pastime.''
Please stop the rhetoric…rhetoric…rhetoric! The day you post anything as half as good as my post above, may be the day I take you seriously. You are just another blind ideologue who doesn't mind the body count and ruined lives as long as your political beliefs remain intact.
Now, if you will excuse me, I have to reply to Weka before I'm put down for maybe 2months.
From 2005 to 2021 (17 years) there have been a total of 16,816 Firearms-related offences recorded by NZ Police. That means on average 2.7 offences every day. That means some days there won’t be any and other days there may be quite a few. Over the last 17 years.
You can check this for yourself: https://www.police.govt.nz/sites/default/files/publications/firearms-information-summary-1apr2022.xlsx.
The first 3 months (I assume) of 2022 don’t show a major increase in recorded Firearms-related offences, but you apparently know something more, so put up or shut up.
AFAIK, ram raids are apparently done mostly by youths under 15 years of age. These are presumably not the ‘501’ deportees from Australia mentioned in the OP who are held responsible for the increase in gang crime. But I don’t know this and you apparently do, so put up or shut up.
I don’t know what happens in your hood and in your supermarket. I live in an ‘interesting’ area and have not noticed a change, but there are definitely all sorts of shit happening, sometimes really bad shit.
The pandemic, other global shit (e.g. Russian invasion), and inflation & cost-of-living increases have been and are taking a huge toll and affecting people’s mental state. This means that more shit happens.
You can argue your opinions, but not your facts. Especially if one can point to stats, for example, that don’t support your assertions or even contradict them.
I am now moderating you.
I told you before, I don't need stats because they aren't reflecting the reality happening in the real world. To have stats means you have to have data input. When you don't have data input and crime isn't reported as is the case at the moment, the stats don't match up.
Case in point:
https://www.justice.govt.nz/about/news-and-media/media-releases/nzs-largest-crime-survey-shows-burglaries-on-the-decline/
As talkback has reported – and you yourself may know one person who hasn't reported a crime- burglaries aren't being reported. In many cases the police don't even turn up according to some callers. So how are these crimes declining. Let's see:
“This unique survey has been running since 2018,” says Tim Hampton. “This drawn on around 23,500 interviews with randomly selected New Zealanders about their experiences of crime. For the first time, we are able to compare the data over three years and we can now see trends in crime.”
So, in other words a random selection and crap shoot. If they had advertised for people who haven't reported a crime I would have no trouble accepting the results if the data showed a decline in crime overall. I don't know the statistical odds of picking up non reported crime in a random sweep and then comparing that data with three random sweeps…and getting a result?
Then there's this.
“The Survey provides us with unique evidence because three quarters of crime incidents are not reported to the Police and therefore not recorded in the administrative data”, says Tim Hampton.''
But it's still a random sweep and I don't know how it is collated. Therefore I stick to what my eyes, talkback and tv tells me. The survey includes people 15 years old and above.
See notes to editor at bottom of the article.
"As talkback has reported".
"As I have seen".
Real "evidence based" sources you have there!
Yep. And backed up.
“The Survey provides us with unique evidence because three quarters of crime incidents are not reported to the Police and therefore not recorded in the administrative data”, says Tim Hampton.''
And to be honest, although that backs up my perceptions and OPINIONS, even I have trouble believing that figure. If true, things are way worse then I have believed.
What about this:
So there were weaknesses with a previous survey. I believe there are weaknesses with latest survey and will not be surprised if it’s tweaked again in the future.
BTW- any reasons debate to be had from you? Of course not – just a sound bite and a little denigration.
Anyone who has been around a while would be cautious about using the statement, “The Survey provides us with unique evidence because three quarters of crime incidents are not reported to the Police and therefore not recorded in the administrative data.” to suggest there has been a significant increase in crime. One doesn't need to think too deeply to realise that since the data has not been collected in the same way by past surveys, to make anything of it is a nonsense. It was also noticeable a number of years ago that the incidence of burglaries increased dramatically when insurance companies would only accept claims when a Police report had been lodged. When writing reports for the Courts at the time, it was notable that property loss claims recorded significant items that the burglars denied having seen, let alone taken. Of course, many people don't bother reporting crimes as their loss, injury or victimisation is hardly worth bothering about. One also has to wonder how much the recent ram raid spate was fuelled by the graphic depictions through the media that would excite any young rebel who wanted a publicity fuelled 15 minutes of fame.
KJT was obviously 'on the money', you – meh.
''Anyone who has been around a while would be cautious about using the statement, “The Survey provides us with unique evidence because three quarters of crime incidents are not reported to the Police and therefore not recorded in the administrative data.''
Correct. Read my comment.
KJT was obviously 'on the money', you – meh.
I was taking you seriously until you wrote that comment. Now I know you wouldn't have a clue if you think KJT was on the money with a troll statement.
Another example of you misunderstanding the data and what they tell you/us. You tend to take the binary position again: if there’s something not quite perfect or absolute with the data and/or the methodology, if there’s any hole or weakness to put the finger on then discard it completely and turn on the radio for talk-back infotainment.
Data-sets are rarely comprehensive (complete) and perfect, not even the Census reaches that unattainable threshold and loft goal. Much social research and data relies of snapshots and well-designed well-conducted surveys and sometimes polls.
Talk-back relies on a handful, at best, hand-picked guests (often with an axe to grind) with generally very little allocated time by a
spring-loadedprimed host/interviewer or panel with an a priori outcome in mind, which is usually to boost the ratings and satisfy some other declared or undeclared agenda.Of course, the NZCVS has to be done on and with a random sample! Otherwise it would skew the data and results! You should accept the data as a good reflection what’s been happening in NZ over that period, which is a decline in burglaries.
Making improvements to the design arguably increases the confidence in the results and in the strength and reliability of the conclusions. None will be absolute or perfect! But they’re heaps better that anecdata, and the rants & reckons of shock-jocks on talk-back. Yet, you prefer the latter because they’re easier on the ear & brain, they make you laugh, and they align with your prejudices and confirm your biases.
You simply want to pick & choose which data you like to believe.
The NZCVS gives a very good idea and estimate of the level of unreported crime, which is part of its design! It means we have a more complete and likely better picture of what’s happening in combination with all the reported data. NB the latter are not a survey or snapshot irrespective of how much they under-report. For example, and as an analogy, the Covid-19 daily new cases are thought to be under-reported, the number of hospitalisations is another and perhaps better indicator even though not all positive patients went to hospital because of Covid, and the number of Covid-related deaths is also less than perfect because it can be very difficult and sometimes even impossible to establish the exact cause(s) of death; dying with Covid is not the same as dying from Covid. Should we collect these data and pay any attention to them and let them help guide us in making (policy) decisions or should we do what you do and trash them in the bin and take our cues from talk-back ‘experts’?
I know what I prefer.
And
https://www.justice.govt.nz/assets/Documents/Publications/Cycle-3-Core-Report-20220224-v1.9.pdf
Lastly, thank you drawing attention to these surveys even without making the case for why should pay attention to them 🙂
''Talk-back relies on a handful, at best, hand-picked guests (often with an axe to grind) with generally very little allocated time by a
spring-loadedprimed host/interviewer or panel with an a priori outcome in mind, which is usually to boost the ratings and satisfy some other declared or undeclared agenda.''Not true from my experience. And it isn't the invited guests that make talkback so potent, its's the random callers, many of them who know something behind the stories currently in the media, or about topics that hive off from the main topic.
Here's an example that's yet to be proven. This goes back about a year ago. Keep it in the back of your mind:
''A lady rang in who CLAIMED to have been a regional manager at the IRD for approximately 15 years. ( I forget the TB topic). She said the IRD is incapable of running major tax audits properly, She said the department was in disarray with many senior investigators gone and their computer system in a mess.''
Here is something I found. Small cheese, or proof of deeper problems?
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/128562101/inland-revenue-loses-evidence-in-fraudfromprison-case-leading-to-suppressions
But: from 2017. In support of IRD.
https://thespinoff.co.nz/partner/06-12-2017/tax-cheats-and-how-to-catch-them
''Of course, the NZCVS has to be done on and with a random sample! Otherwise it would skew the data and results! ''
How?
''Should we collect these data and pay any attention to them and let them help guide us in making (policy) decisions or should we do what you do and trash them in the bin and take our cues from talk-back ‘experts’?''
You misunderstand again. There are no talkback experts. Mikey doesn't do talkback. It's the callers who fill in the blanks for me.
We have criminals, ex criminals, crime victims ( reported) Crime victims ( unreported) police officers – serving and RET.
I believe they give me a better global picture of the state of things then reports and stats. However, talk back is never going to dictate government policy. While you and the rest are having fun about my rants regarding TB radio, all I'm doing is giving you a heads up on the medium that is taking the Labour Party apart piece by piece. And worse, towards election time the major leaders get to host their own hour spot on talkback. Will Labour let Jacinda face middle NZ?
''The NZCVS enhances our understanding of that picture by covering both reported and unreported offences. The survey also provides rich information about victims often not available in administrative data sources, such as their ethnicity and whether they have a disability.''
That sounds like talkback radio to me.
You said this:
I quoted this back to you:
Now, can you work out what would happen to the overall picture of crime in NZ if they were to do it your way?
Talk-back is self-selecting, just as an online poll is. It taps into its audience and people like you call in to have their rants heard and their frustrations aired on-air. A scientifically conducted study survey picks a random sample, just as for a political poll, to get the most accurate picture of the whole of the nation. That’s why NZCVS is heaps better than talk-back.
Mod note
I know your application to be police commissioner is in the mail and its been good to see the amount of thought and preparation you have been doing in support of your application. Its been a real study in the right attitude to have applying for an unfamiliar role.
We only hope your job application gets appropriate treatment.
I have never, ever seen a domestic in a supermarket, ever. I've lived in some of the poorest suburbs of Huntly, Hamilton, Whangarei & have been in South Dunedin for the last 20 years.
There was panic in the ODT about gunshots in Concord a few days back, turned out to be a car backfiring.
In one of those "rough" South Auckland shopping malls on Tuesday.
Two very relaxed looking cops, walking around talking to shoppers, in polo shirts and utility belts. A whole bunch of very "unthreatened" looking, mostly brown people. Haven't got the message they should be "terrified of the massive crime wave" obviously!
Not a domestic, gun or even a taser, in sight.
These sort of crimes (the shootings and the ramraids) were very common in Australia, not long ago. Now both Labour and National are talking about going to Australia and asking what they did to keep them under control. The answer will be "deport as many of them as you can to New Zealand".
I wouldn't be surprised if there is a significant correlation between number of 501s and increase in crime numbers.
Of course, NZ deports criminals to island countries which pushes up their crime rates too.
Tough on crime, eye-for-an-eye policies sell well, but have little effect on actual crime and push up the spend on prisons. Spending more on police helps as the criminals don't like getting arrested. The amount of time spent in prison is less of a deterrent than going there in the first place.
Spending more on health and family support will not bring about immediate change, but could make a much bigger difference in the long term. Of course it might be another political party that gets to claim the credit.
True, sad to say. But that is what we need to aim for: the long term.
If Bomber is correct in his view as to the reasons behind this upsurge in gun violence between gangs, then that points to a level of criminality and corruption that indicates a much larger breakdown in policing than anyone previously thought.
https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2022/06/08/gang-wars-why-heavy-handed-australian-tactics-wont-work-plus-latest-nz-police-failure/