National needs better lawyers

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1. aj 1

   8 June 2022 at 1:31 pm

   Would it be too cynical for me to suggest the more rabid Adern haters would stoke this gun violence going by driving around Auckland popping off a few random shots from time to time.

   False flag
2. Christopher Randal 2

   8 June 2022 at 2:12 pm

   ISTR that Ardern has always said that we are not playing tit-for-tat over the 501s, but it really is time that we returned the favour and started deporting miscreant Aussies
3. Gosman 3

   8 June 2022 at 2:30 pm

   If the issue is the causes of crime how come violent crime is increasing when inequality and poverty is supposedly falling?
   • mac1 3.1

     8 June 2022 at 2:41 pm

     What other causes of crime might there be, apart from inequality and poverty?

     What evidence do you have that these latter are actually falling, 'supposedly'?
     • gypsy 3.1.1

       8 June 2022 at 2:51 pm

       “Despite Covid-19 causing the greatest global economic downturn since the Great Depression the Government has delivered reductions in child poverty across all nine measures,” Arden, who is the minister for child poverty reduction, said in a statement.

       Over the past four years, this Government’s policies have reduced all nine official measures of child poverty compared to the baseline year. Since coming into Government we have lifted 18,000 children out of material hardship and 43,300 fewer children are in poverty since 2017/18. Our main benefit increases announced in Budget 21 are projected to lift a further 33,000 children out poverty.

       Is she right or wrong?
       • KJT 3.1.1.1

         8 June 2022 at 3:10 pm

         Took a while for Nationals destruction of education to take effect on outcomes.

         It will similarly take a while, for an improvement on child poverty, to effect crime rates.

         Only in Hosking land does things work instantly.
         • gypsy 3.1.1.1.1

           8 June 2022 at 3:18 pm

           How long will it take for the crime stats to start dropping? What is the cause/effect time frame?
           • KJT 3.1.1.1.1.1

             8 June 2022 at 3:27 pm

             Show us if there really is a rise, or just a blip in a longer term decline in crime rates, of certain types of crime, accentuated by covid and 501's?

             Do you really think a decrease in poverty for children, who are mostly under the age that commit crimes, is going to show up in crime rates, before that cohort gets to an age to commit crimes. Most of the current crop of young criminals, would have been growing up during National's "living in cars'" era. Very youngest are 11 or 12. Most are mid to late teens, early twenties, not 4 1/2.

             The effects of reduction in crime policies now, can be expected to start showing in 5 to 20 years.
             • gypsy …

               8 June 2022 at 3:40 pm

               Show us if there really is a rise,

               Done.

               "The effects of reduction in crime policies now, can be expected to start showing in 5 to 20 years."

               What are these 'reduction in crime' policies you speak of?
               • KJT …

                 8 June 2022 at 3:43 pm

                 Oh, FFS. We've been talking about them.
                 • gypsy …

                   8 June 2022 at 3:47 pm

                   Well poverty and inequality have been mentioned. If you're suggesting these are the issues that are the cause of crime, and crime won't come down until they are addressed, then you need to have a chat to Poto Williams.
                   • mac1 …

                     8 June 2022 at 4:24 pm

                     Gosman was the one who suggested poverty and inequality. I asked him the questions. What other causes and where is the evidence?
             • Peter …

               8 June 2022 at 7:47 pm

               Ah, things take a long time to have an impact. How long do you reckon a Mother of All Budgets will go 30ish years down the track?

               Earlier in the week I came across a pile of stuff from the late 1980s and early 1990 to do with education. I'd suggested that for all the restructuring and upheaval of schooling that was to happen and was happening, that there was one critical question: "How will children's learning be improved?"

               (Similarly, some years later when it was decided that there were problems with learning, the question was about whether National Standards was The Answer. Recent international results and the dismay provide a line on whether the hopes were realised.)

               So the real biding solutions to the gang problem? Taking their patches off them? It seems the answer to all the cliffs we direct people to is to have more and more ambulances at the bottom. Jesus wept.
               • In Vino …

                 8 June 2022 at 9:46 pm

                 I sympathise, Peter.
     • gypsy 3.1.2

       8 June 2022 at 5:24 pm

       "What other causes and where is the evidence?"

       There are many causes of crime, and the right and left argue across each other in an effort to justify their particular policy prescription. There's also the issue of personal responsibility – to what extent can or should we lay blame for our own bad decisions on society more broadly. In NZ's specific context, I believe gangs are a big factor, as is substance abuse and the totally inadequate way we deal with mental illness. None of this isn’t easy, but we have to admit we have a problem before we can try to solve it.
   • Incognito 3.2

     8 June 2022 at 3:09 pm

     Show us the stats that violent crime has been increasing.
     • gypsy 3.2.1

       8 June 2022 at 3:31 pm

       Crime Snapshot | New Zealand Police

       Based on the data from 1 April 2021 through 31 March 2022, violent crime (as defined by the Police) has risen from 30,342 to 31,665 across NZ, a rise of around 4.5%.

       For the year ended 31 March 2021, there was increase of 3.3%.

       For the year ended 31 March 2020, there was an increase of around 5%.
       • KJT 3.2.1.1

         8 June 2022 at 3:41 pm

         Despite claims NZ's policing is too 'woke', crime rates are largely static — and even declining (theconversation.com)

         The change in rates is not unusual. There have been bigger year on year changes in crime rates in the past.

         https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/NZL/new-zealand/crime-rate-statistics
         • gypsy 3.2.1.1.1

           8 June 2022 at 3:44 pm

           So your response to actual Police data is an opinion piece that looks at data that is 2 years old. Seriously?

           PS – Gosman and Incognito specifically referred to ‘violent’ crime, which is the data set I quoted. Nevertheless, you have used data that is well out of date. Total crime for the year to 31 March 2022 was up by nearly 20% (205,752 to 246,657).
           • KJT 3.2.1.1.1.1

             8 June 2022 at 3:48 pm

             Which is relevant to assessing it is a trend, or a blip.

             And to show that a 4.5% swing is actually not unusual.

             And evidence of an overall longer term decline in crime rates.

             Which shows that National’s carefully nurtured BS about “crime out of control” is fiction.

             2015 had a 10.5 % increase in the murder homicide rate. From a 7.5% decrease the year before. I betcha National wasn’t going on about “crime out of control” then.
             • gypsy …

               8 June 2022 at 3:57 pm

               Three consecutive years of increases is not a 'blip'.

               Make that 4. In the year to 31 March 2019, violent crime went up 10%.\

               Remember this is violent crime. You know, assault, sexual assault, abductions. I'll let some of the victims know you think it's just a blip, I'm sure they'll feel so much better.
               • KJT …

                 8 June 2022 at 4:03 pm

                 What would you tell the victims in 2015? Doesn't matter because it would have embarrassed National?
                 • gypsy …

                   8 June 2022 at 4:08 pm

                   I'd tell them we need better solutions to crime. The same thing I'd be telling them now.
                   • KJT …

                     8 June 2022 at 4:17 pm

                     In reality you wouldn't have given a stuff.

                     Because like National now, you couldn't care less about crime victims, except as something to attack Labour Greens over.
                 • gypsy …

                   8 June 2022 at 4:23 pm

                   "In reality you wouldn't have given a stuff."

                   In reality I have a daughter who has been a recent victim of crime. In reality I volunteer with a community organisation that deals with youth victims of crime. In reality I support solutions that get real results, and far quicker than 'start showing in 5-20 years'.
                   • KJT …

                     8 June 2022 at 4:44 pm

                     "In reality" there are buggerrall solutions that are instant.

                     Which is why those who pretend there can be, are blowing smoke.

                     As you well know if you have been involved in the area.

                     By the way my ex apprentices, that were gang based and involved in crime, when they started with us, have been gainfully employed, and on the straight and narrow for years.

                     What a bit of care and attention can do.
                 • gypsy …

                   8 June 2022 at 4:52 pm

                   "By the way my ex apprentices, that were gang based and involved in crime, when they started with us, have been gainfully employed, and on the straight and narrow for years."

                   Yep, I’ve seen the same outcomes in the workplace and on marae. Well done.
       • Incognito 3.2.1.2

         8 June 2022 at 4:11 pm

         Thank you, so informative.

         From 1 June 2021 to 31 May 2022, i.e. the most recent 12-month period, violent crime went down from 32,836 to 28,722; it dropped in all 4 categories of violent crime.

         In summary there were 28,722 Violent crimes for the selected period. All crimes went down by [ -4,114 ] compared to the previous period.

         https://www.police.govt.nz/crime-snapshot-0

         You love to use quote & stats that suit your narrative, don’t you?

         Total victimisations for the 12 months ending 31 December 2020.

         This is a decrease of 6.6% (-18,822) from the previous 12 months.

         https://www.police.govt.nz/sites/default/files/publications/crime-at-a-glance-dec2020.pdf

         Gosman and you should change your tune before I take the wind out it
         • gypsy 3.2.1.2.1

           8 June 2022 at 4:28 pm

           You've cherry picked to get the result you wanted. The data set you've nicely cajoled is barely 10 days old. You do know the problem with that, right?

           Using consistent year end dates, and not cherry picking, the data shows a steady increase in violent crime:

           For the year ended 31 March 2022, violent crime (as defined by the Police) has risen from 30,342 to 31,665 across NZ, a rise of around 4.5%.

           For the year ended 31 March 2021, there was increase of 3.3%.

           For the year ended 31 March 2020, there was an increase of around 5%.

           For the year ended 31 March 2019, there was an increase of 10%.

           The wind is coming from you.
           • Incognito 3.2.1.2.1.1

             8 June 2022 at 6:12 pm

             Holding a mirror up to you to reflect back your own behaviour of selective quoting and cherry-picking data to suit your narrative but which don’t actually constitute a decent argument (aka variations on a theme). You have been doing this here for a long time, too long.

             It is quite common to use the most recent data available. Isn’t it the current meme that violent crime has recently gone up 'explosively' and 'exponentially'? Can’t see it in the data from NZ Police, can you? Perhaps the cops are a little behind on their paperwork and it will filter through next month?

             Arguably, it is the most objective to use the most recent period and up to the present day if possible, and it is possible. You failed on that point. You also failed to show the huge fluctuations in the data, which is why carefully selecting the date periods can make such an apparent big difference. Of course, taking your comments at face value one would expect a straight steep line upwards over the last 2.33 years, but the reality is quite different, isn’t it, as is clearly shown in the graph in the link.

             You can always try to find other data sets that show what you want to show. If you’re desperate enough. Ironically, I asked Gosman, not you, and you’re letting the air escape.

             Your tyres have fully deflated.
             • gypsy …

               8 June 2022 at 6:40 pm

               You used data from 2020, and from a random month without any longer term historical comparisons. I used data over a succession of years for consistent time periods that shows a clear pattern. I'll leave others to decide who is cherry picking.

               Meanwhile:

               [deleted]
               • Incognito …

                 8 June 2022 at 6:47 pm

                 The graph in the link to NZ Police website covers all 4 categories of violent crime since 1 January 2020. I’ll leave others to decide who is cherry picking and whether crime is increasing as you imply.

                 Meanwhile, you’re in Pre-Moderation awaiting your retraction and apology.
               • mickysavage …

                 8 June 2022 at 7:34 pm

                 Gypsy do you know what happens when more police are on the beat? The crime rate goes up. Also when you create new offences, as this Government has, the crime rate goes up.

                 Incognito has pointed out to you the flaws in your argument. Holding magically to certain data and saying that it is conclusive proof that everything is bad does not wash.
           • mickysavage 3.2.1.2.1.2

             8 June 2022 at 7:31 pm

             Best to avoid inconvenient data and only talk about the convenient data eh?
         • gypsy 3.2.1.2.2

           8 June 2022 at 4:34 pm

           …and all crime has risen from 203,813 at March 2018 to 246,657 at March 2022, an increase in 4 years of 21%.

           But there's no problem, eh?

           (and you do know we’re in 2022, right?)

           [Putting words in my mouth now?

           But there’s no problem, eh?

           Point to my comment under this Post where I said or even implied that there’s no problem with violent crime or even just crime in general in NZ. Or correct & apologise. Or take a week off. You’re in Pre-Moderation until you respond – Incognito]
           • Incognito 3.2.1.2.2.1

             8 June 2022 at 6:38 pm

             Mod note
             • gypsy …

               8 June 2022 at 6:44 pm

               I think your just a bit sensitive at the moment. Completely understandable.
               • Incognito …

                 8 June 2022 at 6:48 pm

                 Just hungry, but dinner is almost ready.
                 • gypsy …

                   8 June 2022 at 7:22 pm

                   Ah, I understand. Enjoy. I didn't ,mean to imply YOU didn't think there was a problem btw. It was a general observation about what seems to me to be the level of denial coming out of government. Still, I'll take my medicine. See you in a week.
                   • Incognito …

                     8 June 2022 at 7:47 pm

                     Not much of an apology, but I’ll take it anyway because dinner was nice and so is the coffee.

                     When discussing crime data, or any data for that matter, whether between Government, MSM, or Opposition, or here on TS and when one claims an increase or decrease or whatever, they have to back it up, with links and a commentary + explanation. Disagreeing about a change over time doesn’t mean stating or even believing that there’s no problem. For example, a high baseline with no change is a problem, while a low baseline with no change is much less or no problem at all.

                     So far, nobody here today has shown conclusively that violent crime in NZ is increasing, at least not over the last 2.33 years since 1 January 2020 according to the NZ Police data that you linked to.

                     
                 • gypsy …

                   8 June 2022 at 8:01 pm

                   "So far, nobody here today has shown conclusively that violent crime in NZ is increasing, at least not over the last 2.33 years since 1 January 2020 according to the NZ Police data that you linked to."

                   I’m not quite sure why you’re using 1 January 2020 as a starting point? The link I provided goes back years before that, and the data I listed goes back to 2018.

                   Edit – I’m curious about the answer to that because it may help explain your other comments.
                   • Incognito …

                     8 June 2022 at 10:00 pm

                     Why don’t you go to your own link on the NZ Police website, create the graph (Crime type by Month) you want there, starting before 1 Jan 2020, copy it, and paste/post it here? Good luck, because in my experience it doesn’t go back further than 1 Jan 2020 and I’d happily go back further 😉 However, I think that period is a good indication of the violent crimes over recent time and it shows no increase (or decrease) over that period to present day, pretty much, contrary to Gosman’s comment and your claims.
                 • gypsy …

                   8 June 2022 at 10:56 pm

                   "Why don’t you go to your own link on the NZ Police website, create the graph (Crime type by Month) you want there, starting before 1 Jan 2020, copy it, and paste/post it here? "

                   The actual data (I never mentioned a graph) is available at the link I provided going back before Jan 2020 (to 2017) by selecting the period beside "reported from"/"to". That's the source of the data I quoted above and it's very easy to access. The graph you're looking at is a monthly rest. You can create any trend you like based on when you start the graph. Start the graph at April 2020 and the graph shows a clear incline, but that too would be misleading.

                   I quote from the footnote: "Data contained within this report are based on information recorded in the Police dynamic operational database as the 8th of the preceding month. Changes made to source data after this date will not be reflected in this report. For this reason, comparisons between monthly releases should be treated with caution."
       • Craig H 3.2.1.3

         9 June 2022 at 5:30 pm

         One reason for the increase in violent crime was the introduction of strangulation as a new serious offence. Not sure how much impact that has had, but other police reports note as a factor.
   • peter sim 3.3

     9 June 2022 at 7:06 pm

     what planet do you live on?
   • Ed1 3.4

     10 June 2022 at 11:47 am

     The statistical issues have been covered by others – but we know that perception does not always follow reality. Active disinformation is of course rife, and some believe carefully planned through convenient cut-outs like the Taxpayer Union, Counterpoint and others – with National then 'responding' with claims that New Zealanders do not feel safe.

     Many will recall similar outcries against the 'surge in burglaries' years ago – an invented crisis is all that is needed . . .
4. Blade 4

   8 June 2022 at 3:47 pm

   ”The civil war between the Killer Beez and the Tribesman have provided National with the chance of banging the law and order drum. And banging it they are.”

   That is only part of the story, Mickey. You left out crime in the rest of the country.

   ''To be frank the talk about expanding powers does not get us very far. The best response to crime is to have a sufficiently resourced police force.''

   True.` And I would add a Commissioner who is respected by his front line, and a police minister who is on top of her ministerial role.

   ''[S]ociologist and gangs researcher Jarrod Gilbert yesterday said New Zealand had seen this kind of gang crime before. Gilbert said solutions needed to target specific problems, rather than targeting the gangs.''

   Now, more than ever, is the time to ignore Jarrod Gilbert and people like that perpetual excuse monger, Dennis O'Reilly. That Gilbert believes we have seen this type of gang crime before is disingenuous. We have never seen it on this scale, nor have we seen the crime wave that's garden variety crime and violence.

   That said, National deserves the serve they received.
   .
   Any ideas, Mickey?
   • Incognito 4.1

     8 June 2022 at 6:14 pm

     We have never seen it on this scale, nor have we seen the crime wave that's garden variety crime and violence.

     Show us the stats.
     • Blade 4.1.1

       8 June 2022 at 8:35 pm

       No need. I don't have any stats, because I don't need them. You are floundering. You don't need stats for everything. Ram raids and shootings nearly ever night, up and down the country. I have lived in this country for most of my life, along with many other people. I know we have never had things this bad.

       I nearly observe ''a domestic'' every time I go to the supermarket. That never used to happen. Of course, you want see those incidents registered in official crime figures.

       [Show us your stats – Incognito]
       • In Vino 4.1.1.1

         8 June 2022 at 10:21 pm

         Bullshit, Blade. I have lived in this country longer than you have, and I too have read of these things in the sensational press. And there does appear to be a temporary spate. But:

         You say, " I have lived in this country for most of my life, along with many other people. I know we have never had things this bad." Me too, and I am calling BULLSHIT. I too go into the supermarket every day, and I have NEVER seen any 'domestic' nearly every time. In fact, I recall none at all.

         Many of us in this country are NOT worse off than before. Stop making shit up and pretending to have any concern. You are a troll.

         You are making up this rubbish for your silly political purposes. You are full of rubbish. Please go find a better pastime.
         • Blade 4.1.1.1.1

           8 June 2022 at 11:21 pm

           ''Bullshit, Blade. I have lived in this country longer than you have, and I too have read of these things in the sensational press. And there does appear to be a temporary spate. But: I know we have never had things this bad." Me too, and I am calling BULLSHIT.

           https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6nUTXivusQ4

           ''Many of us in this country are NOT worse off than before. Stop making shit up and pretending to have any concern. You are a troll.''

           No, I really care about victims. Not criminals or white folk living in nice areas pontificating about things they no nothing about. Although you will note of late, eye witnesses saying'' We have never had this type of thing happen in our neighbourhood before.

           Quote:

           ''Aucklanders are regularly confronted with gun violence, organised crime, and rising gang tensions. One of the country’s top police officers says he’s seeing things escalate like he has never seen before.''

           "It's not just here, it's everywhere", said a woman who saw police swarm her neighbourhood after a man was shot dead in West Auckland a day later.''

           https://www.1news.co.nz/2021/12/26/gangs-and-guns-seeing-stuff-here-that-you-have-never-seen-before/

           ''You are making up this rubbish for your silly political purposes. You are full of rubbish. Please go find a better pastime.''

           Please stop the rhetoric…rhetoric…rhetoric! The day you post anything as half as good as my post above, may be the day I take you seriously. You are just another blind ideologue who doesn't mind the body count and ruined lives as long as your political beliefs remain intact.

           Now, if you will excuse me, I have to reply to Weka before I'm put down for maybe 2months.
       • Incognito 4.1.1.2

         8 June 2022 at 10:37 pm

         From 2005 to 2021 (17 years) there have been a total of 16,816 Firearms-related offences recorded by NZ Police. That means on average 2.7 offences every day. That means some days there won’t be any and other days there may be quite a few. Over the last 17 years.

         You can check this for yourself: https://www.police.govt.nz/sites/default/files/publications/firearms-information-summary-1apr2022.xlsx.

         The first 3 months (I assume) of 2022 don’t show a major increase in recorded Firearms-related offences, but you apparently know something more, so put up or shut up.

         AFAIK, ram raids are apparently done mostly by youths under 15 years of age. These are presumably not the ‘501’ deportees from Australia mentioned in the OP who are held responsible for the increase in gang crime. But I don’t know this and you apparently do, so put up or shut up.

         I don’t know what happens in your hood and in your supermarket. I live in an ‘interesting’ area and have not noticed a change, but there are definitely all sorts of shit happening, sometimes really bad shit.

         The pandemic, other global shit (e.g. Russian invasion), and inflation & cost-of-living increases have been and are taking a huge toll and affecting people’s mental state. This means that more shit happens.

         You can argue your opinions, but not your facts. Especially if one can point to stats, for example, that don’t support your assertions or even contradict them.

         I am now moderating you.
         • Blade 4.1.1.2.1

           8 June 2022 at 11:27 pm

           I told you before, I don't need stats because they aren't reflecting the reality happening in the real world. To have stats means you have to have data input. When you don't have data input and crime isn't reported as is the case at the moment, the stats don't match up.
           • Blade 4.1.1.2.1.1

             9 June 2022 at 12:48 am

             Case in point:

             https://www.justice.govt.nz/about/news-and-media/media-releases/nzs-largest-crime-survey-shows-burglaries-on-the-decline/

             As talkback has reported – and you yourself may know one person who hasn't reported a crime- burglaries aren't being reported. In many cases the police don't even turn up according to some callers. So how are these crimes declining. Let's see:

             “This unique survey has been running since 2018,” says Tim Hampton. “This drawn on around 23,500 interviews with randomly selected New Zealanders about their experiences of crime. For the first time, we are able to compare the data over three years and we can now see trends in crime.”

             So, in other words a random selection and crap shoot. If they had advertised for people who haven't reported a crime I would have no trouble accepting the results if the data showed a decline in crime overall. I don't know the statistical odds of picking up non reported crime in a random sweep and then comparing that data with three random sweeps…and getting a result?

             Then there's this.

             “The Survey provides us with unique evidence because three quarters of crime incidents are not reported to the Police and therefore not recorded in the administrative data”, says Tim Hampton.''

             But it's still a random sweep and I don't know how it is collated. Therefore I stick to what my eyes, talkback and tv tells me. The survey includes people 15 years old and above.

             See notes to editor at bottom of the article.
             • KJT …

               9 June 2022 at 4:08 am

               "As talkback has reported".

               "As I have seen".

               Real "evidence based" sources you have there!
               • Blade …

                 9 June 2022 at 8:32 am

                 Yep. And backed up.

                 “The Survey provides us with unique evidence because three quarters of crime incidents are not reported to the Police and therefore not recorded in the administrative data”, says Tim Hampton.''

                 And to be honest, although that backs up my perceptions and OPINIONS, even I have trouble believing that figure. If true, things are way worse then I have believed.

                 What about this:

                 1. ”The NZCVS has some significant improvements in design compared with its predecessor, the New Zealand Crime and safety survey (NZCASS). The differences in design mean that direct comparison of NZCVS results with its predecessor NZCASS is potentially misleading, even within similar offence type.”

                 So there were weaknesses with a previous survey. I believe there are weaknesses with latest survey and will not be surprised if it’s tweaked again in the future.

                 BTW- any reasons debate to be had from you? Of course not – just a sound bite and a little denigration.
                 • aom …

                   9 June 2022 at 1:03 pm

                   Anyone who has been around a while would be cautious about using the statement, “The Survey provides us with unique evidence because three quarters of crime incidents are not reported to the Police and therefore not recorded in the administrative data.” to suggest there has been a significant increase in crime. One doesn't need to think too deeply to realise that since the data has not been collected in the same way by past surveys, to make anything of it is a nonsense. It was also noticeable a number of years ago that the incidence of burglaries increased dramatically when insurance companies would only accept claims when a Police report had been lodged. When writing reports for the Courts at the time, it was notable that property loss claims recorded significant items that the burglars denied having seen, let alone taken. Of course, many people don't bother reporting crimes as their loss, injury or victimisation is hardly worth bothering about. One also has to wonder how much the recent ram raid spate was fuelled by the graphic depictions through the media that would excite any young rebel who wanted a publicity fuelled 15 minutes of fame.

                   KJT was obviously 'on the money', you – meh.
                   • Blade …

                     11 June 2022 at 8:11 pm

                     ''Anyone who has been around a while would be cautious about using the statement, “The Survey provides us with unique evidence because three quarters of crime incidents are not reported to the Police and therefore not recorded in the administrative data.''

                     Correct. Read my comment.

                     KJT was obviously 'on the money', you – meh.

                     I was taking you seriously until you wrote that comment. Now I know you wouldn't have a clue if you think KJT was on the money with a troll statement.
                 • Incognito …

                   11 June 2022 at 7:54 pm

                   Another example of you misunderstanding the data and what they tell you/us. You tend to take the binary position again: if there’s something not quite perfect or absolute with the data and/or the methodology, if there’s any hole or weakness to put the finger on then discard it completely and turn on the radio for talk-back infotainment.

                   Data-sets are rarely comprehensive (complete) and perfect, not even the Census reaches that unattainable threshold and loft goal. Much social research and data relies of snapshots and well-designed well-conducted surveys and sometimes polls.

                   Talk-back relies on a handful, at best, hand-picked guests (often with an axe to grind) with generally very little allocated time by a spring-loaded primed host/interviewer or panel with an a priori outcome in mind, which is usually to boost the ratings and satisfy some other declared or undeclared agenda.

                   Of course, the NZCVS has to be done on and with a random sample! Otherwise it would skew the data and results! You should accept the data as a good reflection what’s been happening in NZ over that period, which is a decline in burglaries.

                   Making improvements to the design arguably increases the confidence in the results and in the strength and reliability of the conclusions. None will be absolute or perfect! But they’re heaps better that anecdata, and the rants & reckons of shock-jocks on talk-back. Yet, you prefer the latter because they’re easier on the ear & brain, they make you laugh, and they align with your prejudices and confirm your biases.

                   You simply want to pick & choose which data you like to believe.

                   The NZCVS gives a very good idea and estimate of the level of unreported crime, which is part of its design! It means we have a more complete and likely better picture of what’s happening in combination with all the reported data. NB the latter are not a survey or snapshot irrespective of how much they under-report. For example, and as an analogy, the Covid-19 daily new cases are thought to be under-reported, the number of hospitalisations is another and perhaps better indicator even though not all positive patients went to hospital because of Covid, and the number of Covid-related deaths is also less than perfect because it can be very difficult and sometimes even impossible to establish the exact cause(s) of death; dying with Covid is not the same as dying from Covid. Should we collect these data and pay any attention to them and let them help guide us in making (policy) decisions or should we do what you do and trash them in the bin and take our cues from talk-back ‘experts’?

                   I know what I prefer.

                   We will show later in this report that large proportions of both sexual assaults and offences by family members are not reported to the Police (see section 6). This means that Police and justice data is unable to provide a complete picture of the scale of family violence and sexual violence victimisation in New Zealand. The NZCVS enhances our understanding of that picture by covering both reported and unreported offences. The survey also provides rich information about victims often not available in administrative data sources, such as their ethnicity and whether they have a disability.

                   And

                   Section Six analyses data about reporting crime incidents to the Police. Overall, 25% of all crime incidents were reported to the Police (no significant difference between Cycle 3 [2019/20] and the previous cycles). [my bold] Over all three cycles, theft/unlawful takes/converts of motor vehicles had the highest likelihood of being reported to the Police (91%) while sexual assaults were significantly less likely to be reported (8%). The most common reason for not reporting household offences such as burglary, trespass and vehicle offences was “too trivial/no loss or damage/not worth reporting”. The most common reasons for not reporting interpersonal violence, sexual assault, and physical offence incidents were “shame/embarrassment/further humiliation” and “fear of reprisals/would make matters worse”.

                   https://www.justice.govt.nz/assets/Documents/Publications/Cycle-3-Core-Report-20220224-v1.9.pdf

                   Lastly, thank you drawing attention to these surveys even without making the case for why should pay attention to them 🙂
                   • Blade …

                     11 June 2022 at 9:43 pm

                     ''Talk-back relies on a handful, at best, hand-picked guests (often with an axe to grind) with generally very little allocated time by a spring-loaded primed host/interviewer or panel with an a priori outcome in mind, which is usually to boost the ratings and satisfy some other declared or undeclared agenda.''

                     Not true from my experience. And it isn't the invited guests that make talkback so potent, its's the random callers, many of them who know something behind the stories currently in the media, or about topics that hive off from the main topic.

                     Here's an example that's yet to be proven. This goes back about a year ago. Keep it in the back of your mind:

                     ''A lady rang in who CLAIMED to have been a regional manager at the IRD for approximately 15 years. ( I forget the TB topic). She said the IRD is incapable of running major tax audits properly, She said the department was in disarray with many senior investigators gone and their computer system in a mess.''

                     Here is something I found. Small cheese, or proof of deeper problems?

                     https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/128562101/inland-revenue-loses-evidence-in-fraudfromprison-case-leading-to-suppressions

                     But: from 2017. In support of IRD.

                     https://thespinoff.co.nz/partner/06-12-2017/tax-cheats-and-how-to-catch-them

                     ''Of course, the NZCVS has to be done on and with a random sample! Otherwise it would skew the data and results! ''

                     How?

                     ''Should we collect these data and pay any attention to them and let them help guide us in making (policy) decisions or should we do what you do and trash them in the bin and take our cues from talk-back ‘experts’?''

                     You misunderstand again. There are no talkback experts. Mikey doesn't do talkback. It's the callers who fill in the blanks for me.

                     We have criminals, ex criminals, crime victims ( reported) Crime victims ( unreported) police officers – serving and RET.

                     I believe they give me a better global picture of the state of things then reports and stats. However, talk back is never going to dictate government policy. While you and the rest are having fun about my rants regarding TB radio, all I'm doing is giving you a heads up on the medium that is taking the Labour Party apart piece by piece. And worse, towards election time the major leaders get to host their own hour spot on talkback. Will Labour let Jacinda face middle NZ?

                     ''The NZCVS enhances our understanding of that picture by covering both reported and unreported offences. The survey also provides rich information about victims often not available in administrative data sources, such as their ethnicity and whether they have a disability.''

                     That sounds like talkback radio to me.
                   • Incognito []

                     11 June 2022 at 10:07 pm

                     You said this:

                     So, in other words a random selection and crap shoot. If they had advertised for people who haven’t reported a crime I would have no trouble accepting the results if the data showed a decline in crime overall.

                     I quoted this back to you:

                     We will show later in this report that large proportions of both sexual assaults and offences by family members are not reported to the Police (see section 6).

                     Now, can you work out what would happen to the overall picture of crime in NZ if they were to do it your way?

                     Talk-back is self-selecting, just as an online poll is. It taps into its audience and people like you call in to have their rants heard and their frustrations aired on-air. A scientifically conducted study survey picks a random sample, just as for a political poll, to get the most accurate picture of the whole of the nation. That’s why NZCVS is heaps better than talk-back.
       • Incognito 4.1.1.3

         8 June 2022 at 10:39 pm

         Mod note
   • Nic the NZer 4.2

     8 June 2022 at 6:26 pm

     I know your application to be police commissioner is in the mail and its been good to see the amount of thought and preparation you have been doing in support of your application. Its been a real study in the right attitude to have applying for an unfamiliar role.

     We only hope your job application gets appropriate treatment.
     • I Feel Love 4.2.1

       9 June 2022 at 12:36 pm

       I have never, ever seen a domestic in a supermarket, ever. I've lived in some of the poorest suburbs of Huntly, Hamilton, Whangarei & have been in South Dunedin for the last 20 years.

       There was panic in the ODT about gunshots in Concord a few days back, turned out to be a car backfiring.
       • KJT 4.2.1.1

         9 June 2022 at 12:45 pm

         In one of those "rough" South Auckland shopping malls on Tuesday.

         Two very relaxed looking cops, walking around talking to shoppers, in polo shirts and utility belts. A whole bunch of very "unthreatened" looking, mostly brown people. Haven't got the message they should be "terrified of the massive crime wave" obviously!

         Not a domestic, gun or even a taser, in sight.
5. barry 5

   8 June 2022 at 4:42 pm

   These sort of crimes (the shootings and the ramraids) were very common in Australia, not long ago. Now both Labour and National are talking about going to Australia and asking what they did to keep them under control. The answer will be "deport as many of them as you can to New Zealand".

   I wouldn't be surprised if there is a significant correlation between number of 501s and increase in crime numbers.

   Of course, NZ deports criminals to island countries which pushes up their crime rates too.

   Tough on crime, eye-for-an-eye policies sell well, but have little effect on actual crime and push up the spend on prisons. Spending more on police helps as the criminals don't like getting arrested. The amount of time spent in prison is less of a deterrent than going there in the first place.

   Spending more on health and family support will not bring about immediate change, but could make a much bigger difference in the long term. Of course it might be another political party that gets to claim the credit.
   • In Vino 5.1

     8 June 2022 at 10:30 pm

     True, sad to say. But that is what we need to aim for: the long term.
6. Grumpy 6

   9 June 2022 at 11:05 am

   If Bomber is correct in his view as to the reasons behind this upsurge in gun violence between gangs, then that points to a level of criminality and corruption that indicates a much larger breakdown in policing than anyone previously thought.

   https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2022/06/08/gang-wars-why-heavy-handed-australian-tactics-wont-work-plus-latest-nz-police-failure/

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