National no friends

Written By: - Date published: 8:27 am, October 2nd, 2017 - 194 comments
Categories: bill english, climate change, Environment, ETS, james shaw, Media, national, public transport, same old national, sustainability, the praiseworthy and the pitiful, transport, winston peters - Tags: ,

I just listened to Bill English being interviewed on Radio New Zealand.  He disclosed that he had rang Winston Peters personally on the weekend but that Peters had not returned his call.  He also talked around and then gave a really weak response to the question whether he had offered the Greens James Shaw the Deputy Prime Minister’s position or the Finance portfolio if the Greens lined up with National.

This was not an accidental disclosure.  English also revealed the unanswered call to Duncan Garner on the AM show.

He tried to avoid discussing the crisis that will be caused when the special votes are counted and National’s majority is trimmed if not obliterated.  And I can understand National’s desire to negotiate now.  I am confident that waiting for the specials to be counted will mean that the negotiating dynamic will be different.  Rather than a Labour-Green-NZ First Government relying on a knife edge majority a more substantial majority will mean that such a proposition will be more feasible.

National is trying to manoeuvre the Greens into a position where they have to enter negotiations, even though this will be damaging to the Greens.  But having one of your paid help describe the Greens as mainly hippies and drug addicts and then expecting them to negotiate in a civilised manner six weeks later requires lots of chutzpah.  After nine long years of environmental degradation and dirty politics can National really expect anything different?

And the Herald is continuing its Pro National Government coverage with an interestingly article with the title As New Zealand waits for a new Govt, more come out in support of National-Green deal.   It is only after reading the article that you realise that the “more” is former National Prime Minister Jim Bolger.

With the greatest of respect the article does not make sense.  For instance it contains this passage:

Until now, the people urging Greens to consider talks with National have come from outside the party.

That includes senior National ministers who have floated the idea of a National-Green coalition in a bid to strengthen their hand in talks with NZ First leader Winston Peters.

I always thought that senior National ministers were members of the National Party.  Have I missed something?

Nandor Tanczos is mentioned in the article.  But he says that the Greens going into coalition with National would be political suicide.  This is hardly what could be described as “support” of a National-Green deal.

Perhaps National should show it is serious by offering fundamental changes in policy.  Adding agriculture to the Emissions Trading Scheme for one.  Committing to meet New Zealand’s climate change goals by internal carbon sequestration and CO2 and methane suppression would be another.  Placing Eugenie Sage as Climate Change Minister and Julie-Anne Genter as Transport Minister would be other offers that could be made.  Cancelling the roads of national significance projects and putting the billions of dollars into public transport, walking and cycling projects and rail should be part of the mix.  And not having a real target for reducing child poverty would be a deal breaker.

New Zealand First and the Greens are doing the right thing in not negotiating with National right now.  National’s desperation is showing.

Update:  I have just reread the Herald article and it seems that it was suggesting that Nandor Tanczos was the person outside of National who was urging the Greens to talk with National.  He said it would be political suicide.  No wonder I was confused!

194 comments on “National no friends”

  1. What a sad sack admission (planned and deliberately spoken about) from Bill. Did not return the call lol. English looks like, and is, a total loser around this. This is good theatre like married at first sight with ex partners – not good in any way and hard to turn away from.

    • alwyn 1.1

      Perhaps you should read the Herald.
      http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11928639
      Winston says he was up North and out of cell phone coverage but called Bill this morning.
      Now it appears to be the Labour leader who is panicking.
      Oh well. The joys of MMP and the negotiations with the wiliest politician in the country.
      When, I wonder, will the Labour Party break it to the Greens that, if Labour do manage to arrange a deal with Winston there will be, just as in 2005, no place at the adults table for the watermelons?
      As Yogi Berra might have said. “It will be deja vu all over again”. Perhaps the Green Party will learn this time around.

      • marty mars 1.1.1

        Wow your esp is outstanding al, amazing talent – can you guess what I’m thinking about you now?

        • alwyn 1.1.1.1

          All the evidence I have seen is that you are entirely incapable of intelligent thought.
          It is quite safe to say that, even if you are thinking, it is of no interest to anyone. Why therefore should I bother considering the matter any further?

          • marty mars 1.1.1.1.1

            Well it could have built your credibility but sadly that is now unlikely. You seem to know what labour are thinking even though you are a rabid rightie – the only explanation is mind reading. Thus my offer to you which, through either fear or ignorance, you have declined.

        • CoroDale 1.1.1.2

          “…no place at the adults’ table for the watermelons?”

          Some melons can age well, post harvest, for up to three months, increasing in colour and sweetness.

  2. Carolyn_nth 2

    The National Party is showing their ugly bullying, dishonest face in this election. They show there is nothing they won’t do or say to hold onto power: no morals, and no principles other than winning and ruling according to whatever rules they make up at the moment.

    • Wayne 2.1

      Carolyn,

      Where on earth do you (and Tracey) get your “bullying” allegations from?

      Writing articles or giving interviews on the options for the Greens is not bullying, at least not in my world. It is normal free speech in a democracy, and I would note all the articles and suggestions I have read are in appropriately respectful language. Most also acknowledge it would be a big step for the Greens. The Greens are perfectly able to say “no”.

      As Jim Bolger said on Q &A, if you can’t even stand to have the question asked, maybe you should not be in Parliament.

      • mauī 2.1.1

        Free speech in New Zealand is at the moment endless media talking points on:

        The Greens can go either way.
        Greens are missing out by not going with National.
        Greens are not using the power they hold.
        Greens haven’t achieved anything in Government.

        Why are there no articles or opinion pieces in the media on what a Labour-NZFirst-Green coalition would like then? What policies they might implement, etc. That would provide some balance wouldnt it? There is no free speech in our corporate media. That much is obvious.

    • georgecom 2.2

      I think National and it’s supporters is showing how desperate it is for government even suggesting a deal with the Greens. Not desperate in terms of the Greens offering some very good policies and mapping out a future that puts people and the planet first. But desperate in terms of trying anything to cling to power. And English is desperate to get what he has longed for since 2001, to be Prime Minister. I imagine he will be nervous as heck and feel sick every time he contemplates that the opportunity may slip through his fingers.

  3. Andre 3

    It’s looked to me like the language of this whole issue has been that the Greens should be making all the moves to try to form a coalition with the Nats. I haven’t seen anything that says English or any other Nats have even attempted to approach the Greens. Let alone show they’re willing to turn around on any of the many issues where they are diametrically opposed to Greens principles.

    • tc 3.1

      That’s the MSM messaging (Dirty Politics business as usual) which should not be confused for reality nor what the majority of voters officially called for ….CHANGE !

  4. One Anonymous Bloke 4

    So significant they need building twice.

    It’s hard to trust people when you can’t stop laughing at their hubris and incompetence.

    • tc 4.1

      Yes drove that road earlier this year and was just gobsmacked at the appalling quality of it. It’s symbolic of the regime behind it, focused on appearing like they’re doing something when in fact it’s leaving a legacy of repair and rework.

      Why wasn’t the job wasn’t done properly first time ?

      Corners being cut and crony deals with the likes of FH/Fletchers/Downers possibly, it’s not the only shite road that’s been lauded as ‘moving NZ forward’ one pothole at a time was what they left off that slogan.

  5. Pete 5

    So the smell isn’t the dead cat, it’s the crapped National nappies?

    • Lol good one and so true

    • mary_a 5.2

      Pete @ (5) … now your comment reminds me of a saying I heard years ago. It goes something like this …

      ‘babies nappies and politicians are not dissimilar, because both need changing regularly, for the same reason.’

      So true.

  6. AB 6

    The conclusion I am drawing from all this bizarre behaviour is that the intention is just to throw mud at MMP in general. Prepare the ground by persuading the public that MMP doesn’t work, then mount another attack on it via a Peter Shirtcliffe-style National Party proxy. If the Nats are thwarted, we are heading into dangerous times.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 6.1

      They’ve already challenged the outcome of the election with this “moral right” bullshit. I can’t see Bill English suddenly becoming a decent honest man after all these years.

    • That’s the way I’m reading it. National, like all RWNJs, only like democracy when it delivers what they want. All other times they view it as illegitimate. It’s why they removed democracy in ECan and why they tried to get us to replace MMP with a worse system.

    • Wayne 6.3

      Given that the public have voted on MMP twice (1993and 2011) both times under National, I am pretty certain you won’t see such a campaign, at least not a serious campaign.

      As for “dangerous times”, don’t be ridiculous. New Zealand has elections every three years. If people want to change from a prior decision, it is easy to do so.

      One of the reasons we have such a peaceful democracy on any international scale is because all the political parties know they get to re-run the contest in just another three years.

      • AB 6.3.1

        Well Wayne, by “dangerous”, I meant dangerous for democracy, not physically dangerous. At least not necessarily so, although right-wing violence is definitely a ‘thing’ as we saw in 1981, 1951 and particularly 1913. I think you are over-sanguine and complacent in these matters. (Deliberately so of course as the threat almost entirely comes from your end of the political spectrum)
        Both the MMP referenda were close-run things and both were befouled by well-funded campaigns from the business-right who will not easily tolerate an excess of democracy, and will clearly try again if conditions look propitious. Two defeats may make them circumspect, but they are tireless in their quest for domination.

  7. Sanctuary 7

    This doesn’t surprise me. The media has worked itself into a terrible two tantrum over Winston Peter’s decision to wait until the specials are counted. But asking around my workplace and friends, there is a pretty broad consensus that it is perfectly reasonable to wait until all the votes are counted. People have got on with their lives, it is only the beltway obsessives who can’t cope with a fourteen day wait, and besides why is it going to take two weeks to count the specials anyway?

    Into the vacuum has galloped a thousand opinion pieces of mostly rubbish, but we will know within a few weeks anyway.

    • Pete 7.1

      The game has not finished, on the scoreboard they’re ‘sort of’ in front, but they want the cup to be presented, the medals to be handed out, their names to be carved on the doors and everyone else told to go home.

    • CoroDale 7.2

      Hope the electron board isn’t a State Owned and gnat operated…

    • Phil 8.1

      There are quite a few issues with that Newsroom analysis

      1) 2014 appears to be an extreme case of left-gains and national-losses, at least compared to the previous two elections. If anyone has a longer history of special vote data, that would help to determine whether the Newsroom base case for 2017 is genuinely robust as a base case or starts with the playing field tilted slightly optimistically to the left.
      See: https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/97255715/election-how-the-special-votes-have-fallen-in-past-elections

      2) The evidence for a 2017 youthquake seem weak. Yes, late-campaign enrollments were up (compared to 2014) but that seems to be an offset of early-campaign enrollments being down (again, compared to 2014). That would tend to support the idea of Jacindamania being roughly equal and offsetting to Littlenthusiasm (that catchphrase needs work…).

      3) The newsroom model makes no mention of TOP. Overseas voters tend to be younger and higher educated than the average voter, so i’d be very surprised if TOP didn’t improve their share as a result of this. TOP voters seem to have a lot of crossover with the Greens, so a big chunk of expected rise in the Green vote could bleed off to the TOP wasted vote.

      All in all, I expect National’s maximum losses on the special votes will be one seat to the Greens. The prospect of losing two seems more like optimistic wishful thinking from left activists.

      • BM 8.1.1

        There was no youthquake, watching newshub a couple of days back they quickly blurted out that youth enrolments were actually down this year, before rapidly moving on to the next article

        Obviously, a bit embarrassing for newshub when the facts didn’t quite correspond with the narrative they were trying so hard to push

        • One Anonymous Bloke 8.1.1.1

          No-one knows whether there was a ‘youthquake’ yet because the special votes haven’t been counted.

          Don’t let that stop you parroting someone else’s certainty as though it’s your own opinion, though.

        • Baba Yaga 8.1.1.2

          You’re right, BM, there has been no ‘youthquake, but you will not get anyone in the media admitting it because it would be to accept they got the pre-election commentary wrong.

          The voter turnout in 2017 was 78.8%, in 2014 it was 77.9% (http://home.nzcity.co.nz/news/article.aspx?id=256208). The voter turnout in 2014 was 74.21%, so the increase in 2017 was minimal.

          Here’s a link to an article by Bryce Edwards that makes it clear: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11924009. Quote:

          “In the initial stages of the election campaign, the Electoral Commission reported a surge of youth voter enrolments, which gave greater weight to the idea of a coming youthquake. Subsequently, however, enrolment numbers have slowed down considerably amongst the young. As of today, the total enrolments of 18-24 year-olds stands at 314,702, out of an estimated eligible population of 460,890, which means that only 68 per cent of this age group has enrolled. This is actually less than this time three years ago..”

          From my observation, Edwards, of all people, called this correctly before anyone else.

          • One Anonymous Bloke 8.1.1.2.1

            From my observation, we won’t know what the demographics of the turnout were until the final result.

            Edwards hasn’t “called it”, he’s listed arguments for and against. Your “observation” is 100% projection.

            There’s a clue in the headline: “Political Roundup: Is a ‘youthquake’ looming, or not?”

            • Baba Yaga 8.1.1.2.1.1

              Yes, the final result will confirm the demographics; all I’m saying is that enrolment does give us something to work with now.

              Beyond that discussion, from http://www.elections.org.nz/events/2014-general-election/election-results-and-reporting/2014-general-election-voter-turnout, in 2014 only 62.73 of 18-24 year old enrolled voters voted, and only 62.11% of enrolled 25-29 year old voted. The nationwide average was 76.77%. My 20 year old son voted, but his partner didn’t. This level of participation by this age group is a tragedy IMHO.

              • One Anonymous Bloke

                something to work with

                Sure, and “work with” it you did. Or was it Mike Hosking: you all look the same to me.

                You’re right, BM, there has been no ‘youthquake, but you will not get anyone in the media admitting it because it would be to accept they got the pre-election commentary wrong.

                • Baba Yaga

                  The final enrolment data is available at http://www.elections.org.nz/research-statistics/enrolment-statistics-electorate.

                  This shows that only 72.29% of the 18-24 age group enrolled, the lowest of any age bracket.

                  In 2014 (http://www.elections.org.nz/events/2014-general-election/election-results-and-reporting/2014-general-election-voter-turnout) this same age group had the second lowest voter participation c.f. enrolments (62.73%).

                  The numbers enrolled in the 18-25 bracket were 338,269 in 2014, 333,164 in 2017. In other words, the number of 18-24 years olds enrolled actually DECREASED, when the overall enrolments GREW from 3,140,417 to 3,298,009.

                  • One Anonymous Bloke

                    So 10% more in that age group enrolled. What’s the official definition of a “youthquake” again?

                    • Baba Yaga

                      “So 10% more in that age group enrolled. ”

                      No. Enrolment in that age group actually declined by just under 2%. Here’s the extract from my post above that includes the numbers:

                      “The numbers enrolled in the 18-25 bracket were 338,269 in 2014, 333,164 in 2017. In other words, the number of 18-24 years olds enrolled actually DECREASED, when the overall enrolments GREW from 3,140,417 to 3,298,009.”

                    • One Anonymous Bloke

                      Are raw numbers the same as percentages on your planet?

                      I can’t be bothered playing your games, Maninthemiddle.

                    • mickysavage

                      Wait for the special votes and the final analysis Baba.

                    • Baba Yaga

                      “Are raw numbers the same as percentages on your planet?”

                      You made a mistake in reading the data, that’s all. You said “So 10% more in that age group enrolled.”

                      The numbers enrolled in that age group DECREASED. There was no “10% more”.

                      And stop calling me whatever your calling me.

                    • Robert Guyton

                      “Baba”?
                      I’m interested in why you’ve chosen “Baba Yaga” as a handle, mitm?
                      Baba Yaga has iron teeth, eats children and lives in a hut that stands on chicken legs – curious choice.

                    • McFlock

                      I doubt it’s that sophisticated. “Baba Yaga” was the nickname russian mobsters gave the character John Wick in the movie of that name, if I recall correctly.

                      Our Baby aga may just see themself as skewering countless faceless commenters with grace and skill, like Keanu in that movie. Twenty years ago they would have been jabbering about red pills and blue pills and spouting Baby’s First Cartesian Doubt (not my phrase but a good ‘un).

                      It could always be a private reference to some personal or cultural experience, but… maybe not.

      • Pat 8.1.2

        1. not sure where you get the idea 2014 was extreme in terms of specials weighting…the Greens have always performed well in specials since inception…your own link supports that and clearly demonstrates the consistent left favourability

        2. there is as yet no evidence as to the size of the youth vote…that information will arrive with the specials results i believe….anecdotal however was sizeable numbers of young voters at early voting booths….this dosnt of course indicate preference however i would suggest Jacinda is the most likely beneficiary

        3. Tops share of the vote in general indicates it is not going to have any increased impact in specials.

        All in all I expect historical trend to continue with a possible improvement for labour resulting iin a change of seats of 1 or 2 for lab/green with an outside chance of 3…..and note wishful thinking exists on both sides of the divide

        • Phil 8.1.2.1

          not sure where you get the idea 2014 was extreme in terms of specials weighting

          The stuff data shows that the Greens did disproportionately well in special votes in 2014, compared to 2011 and 2008. I don’t know (and neither do you, and neither does Newsroom) if 2014 presents a new-normal level of Green improvement on the special votes, or if it was a quirk of the 2014 election and the level of Green improvement returns to 08/11 levels. If it’s the latter (back to 08/11 levels) then it’s almost impossible for the Greens and Labour to gain two seats from National.

          there is as yet no evidence as to the size of the youth vote
          We know there were roughly 380,000 special votes – up on 2014 but not really materially so. We also know that youth enrollment during the campaign was, overall, not particularly unusual compared to past elections.

          anecdotal however was sizeable numbers of young voters at early voting booths

          Early voting was already counted on election night. If you mean early special voting (i.e. with registration) then we’ve already got a sense of it (see previous comment).

          Tops share of the vote in general indicates it is not going to have any increased impact in specials
          Like I said, Top’s target demographic was the young and well educated. I.e EXACTLY the stereotypical overseas voter. If Top improve their overall share after the specials, at the expense of the Greens (the most likely other party for young, well educated, overseas voters) that would do significant harm to the Greens chances of picking up seats.

          • Carolyn_nth 8.1.2.1.1

            It may well be that the GP wil only gain one seat and the Nats none after special votes have been counted. Or, Lab-Green could gain 2 and the Nats lose 2 – we’ll just have to wait and see.

            Special votes include those who enrolled and voted at the same tome at advanced booths. This likely included a lot of young people.

            I have seen stats that show the proportion of votes to the main parties at University advance voting booths – that is from votes already counted. Labour got about 40+%, Nats in the 20s-30s, if I remember correctly, and the GP in the 20s also – very close to the Nat proportion.

          • Pat 8.1.2.1.2

            “The stuff data shows that the Greens did disproportionately well in special votes in 2014, compared to 2011 and 2008. I don’t know (and neither do you, and neither does Newsroom) if 2014 presents a new-normal level of Green improvement on the special votes, or if it was a quirk of the 2014 election and the level of Green improvement returns to 08/11 levels. If it’s the latter (back to 08/11 levels) then it’s almost impossible for the Greens and Labour to gain two seats from National.”

            what the stuff data clearly shows is an increasing trend of left favourability in line with the increasing volume of specials….that trend of increased specials we know has continued therefore it is reasonable to expect the corresponding trend of increasing favourability will also continue.
            “The amount by which vote share changes has increased in each of the last three elections as the number of special votes has increased.”

            ‘We know there were roughly 380,000 special votes – up on 2014 but not really materially so. We also know that youth enrollment during the campaign was, overall, not particularly unusual compared to past elections.”

            An over 16% increase…and one we currently have no real knowledge of the makeup…..we know youth enrollment NOT including specials was not unusual ….we as yet know nothing of the demographics of those that enrolled and voted at the same time

            “Like I said, Top’s target demographic was the young and well educated. I.e EXACTLY the stereotypical overseas voter. If Top improve their overall share after the specials, at the expense of the Greens (the most likely other party for young, well educated, overseas voters) that would do significant harm to the Greens chances of picking up seats.”

            Irrespective of TOPs target demographic we know they achieved a 2% support level which will not reach the 5% threshold with specials and therefore its limited numbers will be excluded and have no material impact

            • Phil 8.1.2.1.2.1

              what the stuff data clearly shows is an increasing trend of left favourability in line with the increasing volume of specials

              Oh, come on, Pat. That is a weakest of weak-sauce arguments. All we’ve got is three data points and no idea what the history looked like before ’08, so to say there is a ‘clear’ trend is woeful misuse of data.

              Irrespective of TOPs target demographic we know they achieved a 2% support level which will not reach the 5% threshold with specials and therefore its limited numbers will be excluded and have no material impact

              With all due respect, you clearly don’t understand the MMP Sainte-Laguë
              allocation formula. If TOP increase their overall share of the vote, regardless of if they hit 5%, then that share has to come from somewhere. The Greens are an obvious candidate of where that TOP increase could come from. Anything that depresses the Green special vote reduces the chance they’ll pick up a seat on the specials.

              AND, because of the allocation formula, anything that increases the wasted vote (be it TOP, MP, or others) disproportionately benefits National, because they currently hold the 120th allocated seat and that’s the one most ‘at-risk’ of changing to another party.

              • Pat

                “Oh, come on, Pat. That is a weakest of weak-sauce arguments. All we’ve got is three data points and no idea what the history looked like before ’08, so to say there is a ‘clear’ trend is woeful misuse of data.”

                lol…not as weak sauce trying to claim..” 2014 appears to be an extreme case of left-gains and national-losses,” with the same data

                as to understanding Sainte_Lague I understand it well enough to know that TOPs level of support within specials is not going to materially impact the final result….unless you believe TOP are going to soak up a significant proportion of the specials…a truly magnificent example of wishful thinking.

                As stated previously, my expectations are one to two seats moving left with an outside chance of 3…..your welcome to state your best guess and well see whos right come the weekend

                • Phil

                  lol…not as weak sauce trying to claim..” 2014 appears to be an extreme case of left-gains and national-losses,” with the same data

                  Ooooh, you almost got me. So close. If only you hadn’t completely misrepresented what I said:

                  2014 appears to be an extreme case of left-gains and national-losses, at least compared to the previous two elections. If anyone has a longer history of special vote data, that would help to determine whether the Newsroom base case for 2017 is genuinely robust as a base case or starts with the playing field tilted slightly optimistically to the left.

                  • Pat

                    lol…no need for a gotcha when you are already stumbling over the data…. seriously after 20 hours thats the best you can come up with?….and still no best guess based on your superior analysis?…now theres a surprise

                    • Phil

                      after 20 hours thats [sic] the best you can come up with?

                      1) I had to work.
                      2) Fuck you.

                      and still no best guess based on your superior analysis?

                      I don’t trade in guesses. I let the data tell me what it can and (unlike you, apparently) don’t try to make shit up on the fly.

                      For National to lose three seats, that would require their portion of the specials to be as low as 35%. That’s almost laughably absurd.

                      The Greens will almost certainly pick up a seat. Anything more than 6.8%-ish of the specials would get them there, and that seat would most likely come from National (because they have the 120th seat allocation). For the Greens to gain a second seat, they would have to get approximately 12.3%.

                      The problem for ‘The Left’ is that the 119th seat is currently allocated to Labour. This means that if the Greens pick up two seats, they’re more likely to be 1xNat and a 1xLab pickup, than 2xNat pickup.

                      But, ALL OF THIS depends on the wasted vote. The greater the wasted vote compared to election night, even if it’s only a few 10th’s of a percent, could be the difference between National losing one or two seats.

                  • Pat

                    “I don’t trade in guesses. I let the data tell me what it can and (unlike you, apparently) don’t try to make shit up on the fly.”

                    “All in all, I expect National’s maximum losses on the special votes will be one seat to the Greens. The prospect of losing two seems more like optimistic wishful thinking from left activists.”

                    National no friends

                    “For National to lose three seats, that would require their portion of the specials to be as low as 35%. That’s almost laughably absurd.”

                    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Jrn6_5uCoAYfqBmc9R64nza4oHlua3rCsoykpLQrjII/edit#gid=654160597

                    dont trip over your own feet on the way out…

                • Phil

                  TOPs level of support within specials is not going to materially impact the final result….unless you believe TOP are going to soak up a significant proportion of the specials…a truly magnificent example of wishful thinking.

                  I literally do not know how to say it any simpler, so i’ll just requote my previous comment.

                  If TOP increase their overall share of the vote, regardless of if they hit 5%, then that share has to come from somewhere. The Greens are an obvious candidate of where that TOP increase could come from. Anything that depresses the Green special vote reduces the chance they’ll pick up a seat on the specials.

                  AND, because of the allocation formula, anything that increases the wasted vote (be it TOP, MP, or others) disproportionately benefits National, because they currently hold the 120th allocated seat and that’s the one most ‘at-risk’ of changing to another party.

          • Craig H 8.1.2.1.3

            A key difference between 2011 and now is that overseas specials had to be faxed or posted, and faxes were getting very difficult to find, but from 2014 could also be scanned and uploaded to a secure online server.

            • Wayne 8.1.2.1.3.1

              Craig,

              But the Electoral Commission already know how many in this category (overseas votes). I believe it is 91,000.

              I personally think it is ridiculous we have to wait 14 days for the specials to be counted.

              Most of the specials are votes of registered electors who cast their vote outside their electorate, either on the day or in the preceding two weeks. These have probably already been counted. Why can’t that total be released? After all we get progressive counts on election night. We don’t wait till midnight for a single announcement.

              The two week period is because overseas postal votes have two weeks to come in. But how many of these will there be these days. Probably not many.

              I would hope the Parliamentary Select Committee that deals with all of this in the upcoming Parliament will sort tis out. We should be able to do better than waiting two weeks.

              • Craig H

                Wayne,

                I agree. I was commenting on the idea that 2014 was an outlier compared to 2011 – basically, I think 2014 was closer to the new norm for final outcomes of special votes because of the change in how overseas special votes are allowed to be cast.

        • Baba Yaga 8.1.2.2

          “2. there is as yet no evidence as to the size of the youth vote…that information will arrive with the specials results i believe….anecdotal however was sizeable numbers of young voters at early voting booths….this dosnt of course indicate preference however i would suggest Jacinda is the most likely beneficiary”

          The information is available already based on enrolments. Please see my link above to a Bryce Edwards article in which he claims that enrolments in the 18-24 age range were actually down on the same stage in 2014 (article written 19/9/17).

          • One Anonymous Bloke 8.1.2.2.1

            The information Edwards cites is based on an article published at Libertas on 15th September. It says:

            …there’s no sign of a youthquake this election. But there are signs of a significant greyquake. While there’s still time for that to change, it would have to be a massive upswing in 18-24-year-old enrolments in the 11 days from 12 September to the election.

            My bold.

            Meanwhile, in reality, it doesn’t have to be “massive”.

            Note that this article doesn’t make any predictions either.

            • Baba Yaga 8.1.2.2.1.1

              The enrolments for the youngest voting bracket are actually down on 2014. You’re right, the voting % may rise dramatically within this age group, but its clear the youth quake didn’t extend to getting a lot of extra people to enrol.

          • Pat 8.1.2.2.2

            as noted above those numbers do not include specials which contain those who enrolled and voted at the same time, part of the 385000,,,so in effect those stats are worthless when determining final data, …we do know there was an increase in voter numbers by 150,000 however.

            • Craig H 8.1.2.2.2.1

              And before seeing the results of the specials, it looks like all of them effectively voted Labour or TOP.

            • Baba Yaga 8.1.2.2.2.2

              “so in effect those stats are worthless when determining final data”

              No they aren’t. Enrolments are at least an indicator of where change may occur, because they provide us with the age make-up of the registered voter demographic. That is, assuming the theory that the younger disproportionately vote left. That itself may no longer apply.

        • Baba Yaga 8.1.2.3

          “there is as yet no evidence as to the size of the youth vote”

          The total number of 18-24 years olds enrolled actually dropped between 2014 and 2017.

          • Pat 8.1.2.3.1

            two points which you continue to ignore….first the youth vote is both the 18/24 and the 25/29 demographics…and more importantly you ignore the fact anyone was able to enrol and vote at the same time for the first time and as these are classed as special votes of which we have 385000 we have as yet no idea of the youth turnout…the stats you insist on quoting only apply to the preliminary turnout which we know was only 85% of the total and not necessarily representative of the specials distribution so cannot be automatically extrapolated…..but you can have your reasoning and Ill stick with mine and we will all find out at the weekend.

            • Baba Yaga 8.1.2.3.1.1

              “…first the youth vote is both the 18/24 and the 25/29 demographics…”

              Wow that’s a stretch…29 year olds described as ‘youth’? But ok, let’s look at those numbers.

              The total enrolments within the two demographics added together were:

              2014: 583,645
              2017: 604,331

              So even using your parameters, the increase in enrolments is still only 3.5%, less than the overall (all demographics) increase of 5%.

              “and more importantly you ignore the fact anyone was able to enrol and vote at the same time for the first time and as these are classed as special votes of which we have 385,000 we have as yet no idea of the youth turnout…”

              No, I haven’t ignored that because I haven’t been basing my position on voter turnout but on enrolments. The idea being touted was that we would have a ‘youthquake’. The data proves that the enrolment rate of youth (even given your rather broad definition) is well below the national average. How can you have a ‘youthquake’ with a lower enrolment increase than all other demographics together?

              • One Anonymous Bloke

                By turnout being higher.

                • Baba Yaga

                  But given the enrolment trend, turnout would have to be massively higher in that demographic. And as a fair number of the 18-24 would be first time voters, then…well you can’t vote if you’re not enrolled.

              • Pat

                “No, I haven’t ignored that because I haven’t been basing my position on voter turnout but on enrolments. The idea being touted was that we would have a ‘youthquake’. The data proves that the enrolment rate of youth (even given your rather broad definition) is well below the national average. How can you have a ‘youthquake’ with a lower enrolment increase than all other demographics together?”

                because enrollments do not determine votes…turnout does.
                its all very well being enrolled but you need to get off your arse and vote for it to count.

                In 2014 583,645 18/29 yr olds enrolled but only 364,613 actually voted
                in 2017 604.331 enrolled BUT WE HAVE NO IDEA HOW MANY VOTED until the official count is completed…..that is where the scope is for an unmeasured youth quake

                http://www.elections.org.nz/events/2014-general-election/election-results-and-reporting/2014-general-election-voter-turnout

                for all we know half of those 385000 votes may be under 29 yr olds

                • Baba Yaga

                  “because enrollments do not determine votes…turnout does.”
                  Until we know the turnout, your point is irrelevant. What is relevant, is that interest amongst the youngest demographic, as measured by enrolment, is tepid, at best.

      • swordfish 8.1.3

        Phil

        Election Night vs Final Results
        Party-Vote %

        Election Night … Final Result … Diff

        National
        2014
        48.06 ……………… 47.04 …… Down 1.02

        2011
        47.99 ……………… 47.31 …… Down 0.68

        2008
        45.45 ……………… 44.93 …… Down 0.52

        2005
        39.64 ……………….. 39.10 …… Down 0.54

        .

        Labour
        2014
        24.69 ……………… 25.13 …… Up 0.44

        2011
        27.13 ……………… 27.48 …… Up 0.35

        2008
        33.77 ……………… 33.99 …… Up 0.22

        2005
        40.73 ……………….. 41.10 …… Up 0.37

        .

        Green
        2014
        10.02 ……………… 10.70 …… Up 0.68

        2011
        10.62 ……………… 11.06 …… Up 0.44

        2008
        6.43 ……………….. 6.72 ..……. Up 0.29

        2005
        5.07 ……………….. 5.30 ….….. Up 0.23

        .

        NZF
        2014
        8.85 ……………… 8.66 …… Down 0.19

        2011
        6.81 ……………… 6.59 …… Down 0.22

        2008
        4.21 ……………… 4.07 …… Down 0.14

        2005
        5.84 ……………… 5.72 …… Down 0.12

        Wouldn’t surprise me if Labour – rather than the Greens – turn out to be the main beneficiary of the Specials (similar to 05 – only more so)

        • Phil 8.1.3.1

          Thanks Swordfish – those are useful.

          The Greens don’t need to win a much higher percentage of the specials than their election night tally to win an extra seat. It would be a massive undershoot of their past history to not pick up a seat – they only need 6.5 or 6.6% of the specials to get it.

      • swordfish 8.1.4

        Phil

        The newsroom model makes no mention of TOP. Overseas voters tend to be younger and higher educated than the average voter, so i’d be very surprised if TOP didn’t improve their share as a result of this. TOP voters seem to have a lot of crossover with the Greens, so a big chunk of expected rise in the Green vote could bleed off to the TOP wasted vote.

        Both you & the MSM Punditry place too much emphasis on Overseas voters – they in fact comprise a pretty small % of Specials

        2014
        Overseas Specials 38000 …,,… 12,7%
        NZ-based Specials 263000 …… 87,3%

  8. Joyless sex, jealousy, curfews, scandals and it gets worse – oh sorry wrong headlines for another pretender.

  9. CraigGlenEden 10

  10. Molly 11

    “”Until now, the people urging Greens to consider talks with National have come from outside the party.”… I always thought that senior National ministers were members of the National Party. Have I missed something?”

    I assumed that badly written sentence meant that the urging people were from outside the Green Party. If you take that interpretation, it works. Still pitiful, as a method of filling column inches though.

  11. Ad 12

    Get ready for New Zealand FIrst on the cross benches, and the Governor-General having to sort two competing bids. Final Result Day doesn’t mean we have a government.

    • patricia bremner 12.1

      12. Well as I have said in earlier posts, “A wounded National is a dangerous beast”

      They are muddying the waters, and with the repeated impatience of their journalist friends constantly carping about Winston, they’re creating a feeling of unfair outcomes under MMP.

      Even James Shaw has been convinced to comment. Now the call to Winston.

      They want us to see National as reasonable.

      Ready to build that “brighter future” in tandem with the Greens, now we have the money.

      National feels it is a shame these selfish people are rorting the system!! Tell you what, it would work better if …..

      So, when Winston makes his move there is a climate of anger and impatience carefully cultivated, to test the legitimacy of the decision. Imagine the headlines!!!

    • alwyn 12.2

      It would make a difference whether Winston said whether his party would vote, or abstain on a Confidence and Supply issue, and I think the G-G would ask him that very question.
      If he said he would abstain only National would be able to form a Government. In the absence of a NZF vote they would win a C&S vote whereas Labour/Green would lose.
      That assumes of course that National don’t lose 4 seats to Labour and the Green parties.

  12. Whispering Kate 13

    Nandor Tanczos said on the RNZ news this morning that he thought that a coalition with National by the Greens would not be a good thing this time around. He then did go on and say that Labour and National are very similar and that the Greens need to make sure they preserve their own integrity and image and continues that image exactly as is supposed to be – for sustainability – not endless growth at the expense of the planet. He didn’t dismiss entirely that a coalition with National couldn’t be on the cards but not this time.

    Labour in the past hasn’t been kind to its friends and the Greens should be well aware of that.

  13. Cinny 14

    Not long to wait now, does anyone know what time on Saturday we will know the results of the specials please?

  14. DSpare 15

    I saw a cutdown version of the linked Herald article in the ODT (attributed to NZME rather than Davison, so good to see the original was a bit better). Where there was an error in the very first line by describing Tanczos as; “a former Greens co-leader” (the closest he came was being beaten by his former assistant Norman in 2006).

    The bit that stuck out was the truly pathetic claim of (note the number of highly speculative “could”s):

    Common ground In National and Greens

    Biodiversity/pest control: National have set a goal of ridding NZ of pests by 2050, and could be open to the Greens’ policy of doubling funding for Department of the Conservation rangers.

    Climate change: The two parties fundamentally disagree on whether farmers should be accountable for their emissions. But National could be persuaded to lift its emissions target.

    Water quality: National could be persuaded to act faster on cleaning up New Zealand’s rivers, or increase the number of rivers which will be cleaned up.

    Public transport: National is increasingly under pressure to fix Auckland’s transport woes, and could agree to Green policies like bringing forward rail from the CBD to the airport.

    https://www.odt.co.nz/news/election-2017/ex-pm-says-talk-national

  15. RedLogix 16

    MMP is in trouble; every minor party that goes into coalition with either Lab or Nat comes out of it damaged and at risk of going below 5%. As a result the minors … essential to forming govt …. are increasingly reluctant to form coalitions.

    Right now there are four theoretical coalition govts we could form, assuming the minimum number of seats required for a Parliamentary majority:

    1. Nat/NZ1

    2. Nat/Grn

    3. Nat/Lab

    4. Lab/NZ1/Grn

    None of these options feels like a natural fit of policy, trust and history, none of them looks any more likely than the others, and none of them feels anything like a ‘win’ for progressive politics. On the face of it, which option we finish up with at this stage is a roll of the dice.

    But given that 3 out of 4 of these options includes the Nats, the OP article “National No Mates” isn’t all that grounded in reality. Yes they’ve got no natural allies in Parliament … but neither does anyone else.

    Perhaps the least worst outcome right now would be Option 3 … the so called ‘Grand Coalition’ between the two parties with probably the most in common.

    • Paul Campbell 16.1

      5. Nat/NZ1/Grn

    • tuppence shrewsbury 16.2

      Maybe Nat / Grn will be be the biggest win for progressive politics. very few people seem to have considered how dragging national further left will further erode the support for the right in new zealand. the immediate policy concessions from national to the greens will be substantially more progressive than anything labour and NZF will provide with the greens shut out of real power.

      • RedLogix 16.2.1

        Agreed. The difference in value drivers between National and the Greens would make such a coalition really tough in practise; but in terms of pure political interests it has certain radical logic to it.

        National do tend to be somewhat more pragmatic in their thinking, so it’s not all that surprising they’re pushing the idea out there … whether we trust their motives or not is another question.

        • Phil 16.2.1.1

          National do tend to be somewhat more pragmatic in their thinking, so it’s not all that surprising they’re pushing the idea out there

          Imagine if the situation were reversed – something like Labour needed one of NZF and… ACT?… to form a governing coalition while National needed both NZF and ACT.

          I would 100% expect that Labour would try to strengthen its bargaining position with NZF by raising the prospect of working with ACT. That’s just politics, plain and simple.

      • One Anonymous Bloke 16.2.2

        National agrees to do the right thing* under duress. Apparently you don’t see that as unusual in any way.

        *terms and conditions apply.

        • RedLogix 16.2.2.1

          Apparently you don’t see that as unusual in any way.

          No I don’t; of all the parties they are the least ideological; they will ‘do whatever it takes to maintain power’ if you want to express it in those terms.

          Which means they’re the party most likely to approach negotiations with all the options in play. And they have more plays available to them than anyone else at the moment.

          • One Anonymous Bloke 16.2.2.1.1

            My reply was to Tuppence Shrewsbury.

            I agree, it isn’t unusual behaviour for National.

        • tuppence shrewsbury 16.2.2.2

          I don’t see it in such a binary FPP way as you do, where whoever performs misogynistic chest thumping the loudest about how their way is right and all other ways are wrong.

          I’m thinking about how, from a progressive point of view, taking the largest party and natural leader of the right and curtailing their ability to impose right wing policy through being in cabinet with them, could create the fastest progressive and environmental gains in New Zealand.

          Far more progressive and environmentally friendly than Labour / NZ first with their strong conservative rumps could ever hope to enact while shitting on the greens as irrelevant to the conversation.

          But because national might get power again as a result of the conversation and it was all taken for granted that the greens support labour, it’s all to scary for the “serious” green voters and the daffy do nothing mp’s who are on the way out.

          thump your chest some more OAB. I love that personal tinge of reactionary negativism you bring to the conversation when something new rears up and scares your (desultory) thought process to an outcome it couldn’t possibly have foreseen, as you don’t agree with it.

          I think the real terror amongst the anti-nat / green proponents is that they secretly fear it might be the most successful coalition since New Zealand had MMP.

          • One Anonymous Bloke 16.2.2.2.1

            My desultory thought process? Regarding the Greens’ position I’m guided chiefly by what James Shaw and various other actual Green MPs and members say.

            I’m not in the least bit worried that National will get power again as a result of the desperate lies they’re telling and you’re repeating, I’d just like to know why you vote for a party that only does the right thing under duress.

            As for “progressive” – is this the new talking point? The National Party is “progressive”. Hilarity ensues 😆

            Edit: the only “real terror” is that which you’re projecting. Savour it.

            • tuppence shrewsbury 16.2.2.2.1.1

              the national party is progressive in many ways. Maybe not what you consider to be progressive, but it’s a subjective term. I’m saying that the greens would make the government progressive as you see it. WOW!! MMP!

              • One Anonymous Bloke

                I’m saying I don’t see how that could work, because the National Party’s word is worthless, and everything James Shaw said.

                • tuppence shrewsbury

                  The strong centre right party of the last with the principled left leaning enviromentalism of the greens. Far more palatable to voters in 2020 than the has-been, the nearly-was and some others. that’s the real issue here

                  Plus everything James Shaw said means nothing when he realises that he can’t achieve anything by trying to little sibling with labour when they’re all starry eyed with winnie.

                  David seymour may be the highest paid beneficiary, but it now looks like the party who support rorting the system may join that illustrious group

                  James Shaw knows what he can achieve if he starts talking with national. If he pulls the proverbial rabbit out of the hat and presents it to the green party, then lets the green party decide. ruling it out now is not MMP. All those on the left who normally support labour know it weakens labours position, hence the vehement opposition to it

                  the dance of the seven veils doesn’t only have to be performed by drunken octogenarians to be sexy.

                  • One Anonymous Bloke

                    So your argument is all about insulting other parties. You really really don’t understand the way the Greens do politics eh.

                    • tuppence shrewsbury

                      How is it insulting of the greens to realise that neither lab or nzf will never take the greens seriously if they don’t go and actually make a play to get their green policies enacted? exactly as winnie is doing right now.

                      the Greens really don’t understand MMP if they think it’s insulting to just take being insulted and not at leat talk with the nats

                    • red-blooded

                      Hmmm… I don’t endorse TS’s line of thought, but I will point out that a heck of a lot of Green supporters spend a heck of a lot of time insulting other parties on this site. Prior to the election, I was constantly saying things like, “You can express your support for the Greens without running down Labour”.

                    • One Anonymous Bloke

                      More projection, with a side-order of desperation. It’s music to my ears but please don’t expect to be taken seriously: your word is worth as much as National’s.

                    • tuppence shrewsbury

                      desperation is Labour right now, hoping the greens don’t throw compost over the winston deal.

                    • One Anonymous Bloke

                      Labour did it too? Then you’re on familiar territory 😆

                    • tuppence shrewsbury

                      Confusing past and present tense again OAB?

                      easy enough mistake when you can’t quite believe that all parties have options, and not just the ones you like

                    • One Anonymous Bloke

                      National have no mates. You’re just going to have to choke on it.

                    • tuppence shrewsbury

                      National have a position of power and series of policies they’d like to see enacted in this parliamentary term. They may be willing to negotiate with either the greens or nzf as to how much of this and how strongly national these policies are. No doubt the greens and nzf, being their own parties with their own principals, will have much the same agenda.

                      Maybe each could find common ground with National and national can form a minority government. Maybe the greens owe labour nothing and they can sit on the cross benches if labour and Nzf form a coalition.

                      But that would be too radical and progressive for you to consider, so you’d probably choke on it.

                      For someone who bangs on so much on this site, you really don’t understand the potential MMP brings.

                    • One Anonymous Bloke

                      Keep telling yourself that.

                    • tuppence shrewsbury

                      showing the paucity of understanding of politics there ol chap. Must hurt coming to the conclusion that labour can’t count on greens being their “little buddy”

                    • One Anonymous Bloke

                      I’m a Green voter. Sorry, did you just waste a whole lot of wishful thinking and projection? Oops.

                    • tuppence shrewsbury

                      Feel good about standing in the way of progress by voting green but not allowing them to make a difference?

                    • One Anonymous Bloke

                      Not allowing them

                      Ok you got me: I ackshully have the power of mind control over all members of the Green Party. I use HAARP to mess with their frequencies and Buzz Aldrin does the rest.

                      I would have gotten away with it too, if it weren’t for you pesky kid.

              • In Vino

                What tendentious waffle! No chance of it tuppence. You need to up your understanding of the Greens.

                • tuppence shrewsbury

                  Maybe the greens need to up their understanding of MMP and just how much power they currently hold under it. How much power that could be used for GREEN purposes.

                  They don’t even have to jump into bed, just go on a date and sound each other out. Bit pointless not to do at least that. Go get a free meal and some nice wine instead of being dateless and alone as your crush is out with the old bugger from up the road.

                  • Stuart Munro

                    Yeah yeah.

                    “The Greens are sitting on a goldmine! Look at all that cheddar!”

                    That’s unobtanium – so named ‘cos you ain’t getting it.

                    • tuppence shrewsbury

                      Interesting that you look at it from the viewpoint that only National want something out of the talks. the greens shouldn’t engage if they don’t wish to progress their agenda.

                      So it’s Labour & NZF, and somehow that’s progressive?

                    • Stuart Munro

                      There’s no point in talking to crooks unless you mean to become one.

                      The Gnats are beyond the pale. Lying to parliament and stealing public money are not compatible with any ethics, much less Green ethics.

                    • Robert Guyton

                      *cheesy grin!

                    • tuppence shrewsbury

                      and yet you talk to yourself in the mirror every day telling yourself how right you are about everything.

                    • Stuart Munro

                      Oh I’m sorry – is there some reason I’m supposed to favour your opinion above my own?

                      Make an argument if you can, and if you can’t, go and jump in the lake.

                    • tuppence shrewsbury

                      Stuart, i’ve made plenty of arguments about this. The sole response I get it is “Nah-ah, cos National”

                      lets talk about the idea of a change in government, a national lead government really isn’t possible with the greens as a coalition partner. It would have to be a partnership precisely because of the values the greens would rightly adhere too if they entered into a coalition with “the natz”. So National has to work with the greens, which means becoming green. which then raises the issue of who is the senior party in the coalition?

                      This is MMP politics 101, but all the anti-nat green cheerleaders are still stuck in high school.

                      You made some christmas cracker joke about a natural mineral and think you’ve made an argument. You in particular are stuck in Kindergarten.

                    • Stuart Munro

                      Well you can’t expect to persuade people when you are so blatantly in error.

                      It happens sometimes, that we must retreat from cherished but indefensible prejudices.

                      The Gnats have departed so far from the ordinary principles of Westminster government that even Winston, who basically prefers their worldview, is likely to feel obliged to give them a miss.

                      How the Greens, who are by no means their natural ally, are to stomach them when he cannot is difficult to imagine.

                  • In Vino

                    More emotional waffle. The Greens themselves understand their situation far better than you do because you see it in pictures of dating. How pretentious of you to suggest that the Greens do not understand MMP. They exist largely because of it. They know more about the ‘power’ you and your Nats pretend to offer than you yourself – largely because they have watched how it has been wielded. Go to Tinder if that is your main interest.

                    • tuppence shrewsbury

                      I see it in terms of mmp, parties coalescing on points where they can and disengaging on areas they can’t.

                      Dating is an apt analogy as each party is trying to jockey for attention with the voters and then translate that attention into something they believe to be useful and beneficial.

                      The “greens” you are talking about will consign their party to sitting on the largest organic compost heap looking very smug but achieving next to nothing. I would have thought if you could achieve more by being part of the community that will have to strive achieve the greens goals, the greens would be being truer to their own principles. Not just turning the other cheek ‘coz nationl

                    • In Vino

                      Tuppence – Your silly prattle about sacrificing all else to get some temporary influence (‘power’ to you) says once again that you are in no position to offer advice to the Greens. I am sure that the Nats would value your guidance.. The Nats have nothing else to sacrifice in any case.

                  • McFlock

                    Get a “free meal” and lots of nice wine from a boring sociopath who will try to manipulate you into doing something you really don’t want to do… yeah, more fun to stay home and wash your hair, methinks.

                    • tuppence shrewsbury

                      Are the greens so naive they’d be that easily manipulated? you should cut the patronising tone. if they can’t get what they want out of being the real power broker in parliament then everyone should stop listening to them.

                      They’ve got as many seats if not more than winnie once specials are in

                    • McFlock

                      Dude, it’s not about power and manipulation between parties. It’s about whether the next government is good for the people and the environment, or not. National will be bad for both, and if it’s with the greens’ assistance the greens will go sub-5% quicker than you can say “tory lackey”. National cannot be good for people or the environment: national’s priorities are corporate capitalists and corporate farmers.

                      The method the greens have to get a government that’s good for people and the environment is simple: they can only support, via a direct decision of its membership, a government that will be good for the environment and for people. Any party or combination of parties that cannot fulfill that requirement will never get green support. There’s not even any point “negotiating” about it.

                      But a party or combination of parties that might be able to fulfill that request can negotiate policy specifics with the greens, and if their objectives are close enough to green objectives, the coalition deal will go through.

                      Green policy will happen via a support agreement. If Labour and NZ1 want that support, they’ll be close to green values. Otherwise, Labour won’t be in government.

                    • Stuart Munro

                      @TP

                      They’ve said they’ll listen. That’s frankly amazingly generous considering what a tainted offering the Gnats are.

                    • In Vino

                      Well said McFlock. I will want to copy and paste that one for many future ripostes.. That is the one starting ‘Dude’.

                    • tuppence shrewsbury

                      How can national be bad for the environment if they need the greens for supply and confidence? the critical part of forming a government.

                      National: “Greens, what do you want in return for you support on supply and confidence?”

                      Greens: “enact our conservation policies with no amendment”

                      National: “Interesting, worth considering”
                      …….

                      McFlock – “No… nationals involved so automatically this is bad for the environment”

                      See how naive and anti-environmental this anti-national stance could end up being for the greens? they could get every single environmental policy they campaigned on introduced in one term. And achieve way more than they have in what, 7 terms, of supporting labour through government and opposition?

                    • McFlock

                      they could get every single environmental policy they campaigned on introduced in one term

                      Bullshit.

                      Every single one of these?
                      Lol – yeah, right.

                      Oh, the greens might get one or two tokens for things that even the nats know are on their way in anyway, but every single policy? Nowhere near.

                    • tuppence shrewsbury

                      If they get even half of them, is that not better than waiting another 3 years for the chance to get maybe one of them.

                      This, not MT’s moment of clarity, is the real opportunity for the greens to become the 2nd major party in parliament. It’s juvenile to disregard the opportunity.

                      The 2nd major party isn’t the one with the largest amount of seats in opposition, they’re just the opposition party. Think about it a while

                    • McFlock

                      Oh, so now it’s gone from every single one to half of them. You’re pulling the likely success rate out of the same place national will draw their coalition promises to the greens, and by the time the promises are demonstrably false the greens have provided support to the fuckwits for two years. For which they’ll have nothing to show.

                      Way to commit electoral suicide. Thanks for the advice, please give it to someone else.

            • Stuart Munro 16.2.2.2.1.2

              The Gnats are progressive. In the same way as Hogarth’s Rake.

    • DoublePlusGood 16.3

      Sorry, how exactly does this mean MMP is in trouble? People and parties have to work together collaboratively to govern, and that is somehow bad for our system of government?

      • RedLogix 16.3.1

        The primary purpose of MMP is to prevent concentration of power into one party and represent a diversity of interests.

        But right now all the minor parties … essential to fulfilling this purpose … face an existential crisis every time they form a coalition.

        • left_forward 16.3.1.1

          I would say that proportional representation is the primary purpose. This may freely result in having a party with over 50% of the vote, so it wasn’t designed to prevent the concentration of power in one party.
          To improve proportionaloty and better assist smaller parties, we should remove the 5% threshold as recommended by the Electoral Commission a few years back (totally ignored by the Gnats).

          • RedLogix 16.3.1.1.1

            This may freely result in having a party with over 50% of the vote,

            True enough. Still in practice having more than 3 or 4 parties around makes this much less likely than with FPP where it was a certainty every election.

            Keep in mind also that MMP was only introduced in NZ in response to the Muldoon and Lange govts who both grossly abused their absolute power.

            • left_forward 16.3.1.1.1.1

              I agree that MMP created the opportunity for minor parties and that it reduced the likelihood of >50% parties, but this wasn’t its primary purpose.
              The specific problem was the sequence of Governments being elected under FPP that didn’t have >50% of the support of the electorate.

              There may well have been people who voted for MMP in the referenda who were motivated to break up the duopoly of the two larger parties – but that was not the fundamental motive of those who initially proposed electoral reform.

              I am making these points because I believe that your argument that ‘MMP is in trouble’ is wrong. MMP is not in trouble because a return to a non-proportional system would not be in the best interests of democracy in NZ.

    • But given that 3 out of 4 of these options includes the Nats, the OP article “National No Mates” isn’t all that grounded in reality.

      Two of of those three most definitely aren’t going to happen and the third is, going on policy alignment and the wishes of NZ1st voters, not going to happen either and that’s all because of the dishonesty and policy conflicts of National.

      So, yeah, solidly grounded in reality.

      Yes they’ve got no natural allies in Parliament … but neither does anyone else.

      I’d say that Labour/Greens are natural allies and that NZ1st is actually friendly (policy wise) to those two. Labour and the Greens have many policy overlaps and even NZ1st has overlaps with the Greens and Labour.

      National is the only party that doesn’t have any policy overlap with those three.

      • RedLogix 16.4.1

        I’d say that Labour/Greens are natural allies

        Superficially yes; but in all the years both parties have been around there has been precious little evidence of a sound working relationship, and many moments of mistrust and missteps. The worst betrayals come from with those who you hoped where your friends. Keep in mind the Greens are substantially a middle-class urban liberal party, while Labour is not.

        Nor will it be forgotten how Winston locked the Greens out of coalition with Helen Clark’s govt the first chance he got. There isn’t much trust in that relationship either.

        I’m not saying Lab/NZ1/Grn is impossible; indeed of the four options it may be the most workable … but we really shouldn’t kid ourselves that it will be an easy or natural alliance. A NZ1 presence in any coalition will be a tight handbrake on any progressive reform.

        That was my point really … that NONE of the four viable options look particularly attractive or natural.

        • NewsFlash 16.4.1.1

          The current Green Party is a whole different to that of 10 yrs ago, Labours association with the Greens is now more equitable, the Greens have matured considerably, and have a good solid base of supporters, both parties have a common belief and both parties have a high degree of principle, as seen during the election campaign.

          Any differences of opinion (between L & G) are actually good for democracy, I certainly don’t see Labour and National held under the same light by any stretch of the imagination.

        • Phil 16.4.1.2

          The worst betrayals come from with those who you hoped where your friends. Keep in mind the Greens are substantially a middle-class urban liberal party, while Labour is not.

          Nor will it be forgotten how Winston locked the Greens out of coalition with Helen Clark’s govt the first chance he got. There isn’t much trust in that relationship either.

          I can envisage a situation where the Greens enter a coalition with Labour and NZF now, then spend the next three years being shat on from a great height by Winston’s unique brand of political bullshit.

          It’s entirely possible you then could see a 2020 election where the Greens are forced to present themselves as a viable centrist party that could work with both major parties, just to stave off electoral oblivion.

  16. savenz 17

    National are Nigel no friends. And it’s their own fault.

    Also we have to reflect it was classy strategy by Labour under Andrew Little to get Greg to win Ohariu and Willy Jackson to unite the Maori electorates. Without that, Natz would have been in a much stronger position.

    If only Greens and Labour NZ First had collaborated on the electorate votes aka Northland, Auckland CBD and Nelson. In particular Nelson, to see Nick Smith wiped out would be justice for his appalling assault on the environment.

    (Majority for NZ First/Labour/Green not National and special votes still to be counted)

    Northland
    KING, Matt 13,686
    PETERS, Winston 12,394
    PRIME, Willow-Jean 7219
    HUGHES, Peter 1375

    Nelson
    SMITH, Nick 14,966
    BOYACK, Rachel 10,956
    LAWREY, Matt 8324
    SARA, Susan 1262

    Auckland CBD
    LEADING CANDIDATE: KAYE, Nikki 10,068
    WHITE, Helen Ione 8,549
    ROCHE, Denise 1875
    EDWARDS, Frank 426

    • simonm 17.1

      Maungakiekie
      Denise Lee, National 12,338
      Priyanca Radhakrishnan, Labour 10,395
      Chlöe Swarbrick, Greens 2,995

      National total 12,338
      Combined Labour/Greens total 13,390

      Both Radhakrishnan and Swarbrick ended up in Parliament anyway because they were high on their parties’ lists. National retained the seat.

      • savenz 17.1.1

        exactly simonm – it is rubbish that the majority of voters (even in very rich areas) want a centre right government. People want a centre left government but their votes are split,

        Labour and Greens and NZ First need to work together to remedy that so that people who want a centre left government have a clear mandate who to vote for in the electoral votes.

        Also heard a lot of crowing about some MP’s from National getting huge votes. I note that social media had A LOT of people posting about capital gains taxes on lifestyle property under Labour. That clearly spooked a lot of people and made them vote National.

        Who knows whether it was genuine people worried on social media, or some dirty politics campaign that certain National MP’s are known for.

  17. Whispering Kate 18

    Labour and National, both in their own ways, are arrogant and want it all and to just suffer the smaller parties to prop them up while in power. When the attitudes of both of the larger parties mature and grow up and accept this is an MMP environment, mandated by the will of the people, then maybe we will get some successful grown up coalitions where the larger parties do not kill off their smaller support parties – its no wonder the smaller parties face coalition talks and/or partnership with intrepitation.

    Like this waiting period for the overseas votes to be counted, the MSM and its mouth pieces just can’t leave it alone, they’re like kids with a “whining gimme gimme I want it now” constant refrain – its enough to do the electorate’s head in. As I heard someone on the news say lately – Germany faces 3 months of coalition talks and the country hasn’t fallen down on its ears. Like during the summer recess the country ticks over – it makes you wonder if we do need a Government at all, fat use they are.

    National are being pathetic with their desperation and phoning Peters. Leave it to him to make up his own mind.

    • RedLogix 18.1

      its no wonder the smaller parties face coalition talks and/or partnership with intrepitation.

      Precisely … and the 5% threshold just exacerbates this. National and Labour are still essentially FPP parties; it’s clear they would like to go back to forming majority govts on their own, with all the unlimited power our unicameral house system confers on them.

      NZ’s political constitution is weak and is overdue a major re-think.

    • Anne 18.2

      National are being pathetic with their desperation and phoning Peters. Leave it to him to make up his own mind.

      I think you will find it is part of maintaining the public momentum for a National- led coalition govt. It’s also part of an attempt to push Labour out of contention in the minds of the public. They are hoping Peters and co. will have to take cognizance of that when coming to a decision.

      English didn’t have to mention he had phoned Peters twice on two morning news programmes. It is part of the ‘mind game’ strategy I mentioned on another of today’s posts.

      • AB 18.2.1

        The unanswered phone call (mentioned twice) is to reinforce the “Winston is intransigent” narrative which quickly turns into the “MMP doesn’t work” narrative.
        As someone who remembers how hard we had to fight against Shirtcliffe and his cronies to get MMP in the first place, it’s all very obvious and telegraphed

      • veutoviper 18.2.2

        Winston Peters is no fool and has responded accordingly to English and others re English’s call yesterday to Peters in this well worded statement.

        http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA1710/S00003/calls-to-new-zealand-first-are-responded-to.htm

        Jacinda Ardern has also been in direct contact with Peters today and has also issued this very short statement – described as ‘chill’ by Russell Brown and by others as in total contrast to the ‘shrill’ statements etc from National.

        http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO1710/S00012/statement-regarding-coalition-negotiations.htm

        • Anne 18.2.2.1

          Both Winston Peters and Jacinda Ardern are playing an honest and straight game.

          The difference between them and National – maturity and immaturity.

          • veutoviper 18.2.2.1.1

            Anne, i agree re that both Winston and Jacinda are playing a straight, honest game – as opposed to the dishonest,’ power is everything and ours by right’ approach by English and co.

            I have been impressed by Jacinda since our paths crossed over 10 years ago when she was working in Cabinet Office for Helen Clarke and I was still in the Public Service. Her maturity, ability to grasp different ideas/opinions were well beyond her age to a much older, experienced person (me!) and even then she had the aura of someone who would/should go far.

            Her communication skills have really come to the fore during the election compaign – and particularly how she is handling this hiatus, walk on egg shells situation we are currently in. I was really impressed with her performance this morning on the AM show – link in this comment of mine on another post thread this morning.

            Good call from Ardern

  18. Stuart Munro 19

    The Gnats – trivial pestilential vermin – have always seen themselves as some kind of apex predator. Like the invasive South African praying mantis Miomantis caffra, their sexual cannibalism has proven to be a major cause of mortality in ex-partners.
    One can almost see the Crosby Textor strategists salivating as they read “Fatal attraction: sexually cannibalistic invaders attract naive native mantids”

    Where the mantis analogy falls down of course, is that unlike Gnats, mantids are green.

    • garibaldi 19.1

      As an aside SM I find it sad that the vast majority of NZers don’t even know about the presence of the Sth African mantis and how aggressively it has replaced our beautiful native species.
      I have not seen a native one for a couple of seasons now and assume they have been wiped out here in the Waikato.
      It is this Sth African mantis which is also wiping out more monarch caterpillars than the paper wasps.

      • In Vino 19.1.1

        Interesting… I have seen paper wasps hunting down and slaughtering younger SA mantises, as well as grown male mantises (mantids?). I believe the wasps are harder on Monarchs. The mantises go on preying after the wasps’ hunting season has ended, but it is after the end of the wasp ‘hunting for protein’ season that the Monarchs now get their window of survival.
        This is at the very end of summer, when the voracious mantids are at their peak. So I suggest to you that the wasps are by far the greater problem. Early in the season, the mantids are babies and too small to bother the monarchs. The paper wasps are doing the damage, and Monarchs are all but obliterated until late summer. They survive when the wasps stop, not the mantids.
        But both voracious species may have saved us from the insect plagues that were earlier forecast with the arrival of warmer winters. Both species arrived at about the same time.
        (Oh dear… Garibaldi – I fear that we may both be headed for Open Mike.)

        • Robert Guyton 19.1.1.1

          Monarchs are immigrants too. It’s the Admirals I worry about…

          • Stuart Munro 19.1.1.1.1

            ‘I never was much of a fist at Latin,’ said Jack. ‘Not like Philip Broke. But I do remember dux, a leader, an admiral as you might say: and the plural is duces. So you could construe duces tecum as the admirals are with thee; and I don’t ask better than that.’

            • In Vino 19.1.1.1.1.1

              duces tecum is so selective. How about duces vobiscum to be more inclusive?

              • Stuart Munro

                You are almost certainly right, though I’d never pick bones with Patrick O’Brien, I’ve a feeling he’d get the better of me.

                • In Vino

                  Assuming that Patrick said ‘duces tecum’, he was speaking to a singular person. I made it ‘you plural’ to be more inclusive. We need to get our ducks in a row. (Dux in aro.) From that wonderful inscription on a desk where there were fortibus es in aro.

                  • Stuart Munro

                    It is apparently a legal form, a subpoena for documents.

                    My object of course was to bring the admirals into the war against the Gnats. With Dux in aro as well they may find themselves seriously outclassed.

      • Stuart Munro 19.1.2

        Kids need to get a chance to go fly-fishing. Every fly fisherman becomes an amateur entomologist for life.

        • In Vino 19.1.2.1

          A dying breed, I fear. With Nats’ water standards, more and more waterways will become fly-fishing-free. Of course, they might remain wadable… with those huge rubber wading trou that keep you totally out of contact with the algae-ridden water.

          • Stuart Munro 19.1.2.1.1

            Restoration is by no means a forlorn hope.

            The Han river in Seoul as well as many of its tributaries are once more fishable and in many places drinkable. Shanghai’s Huangpu is recovering as aeration and reworking of below standard sewerage works frees it from oxygen debt and restores it to life. These places have forward-looking governments of course, but the pressure on our vile oppressors will only increase until, like some fatburg of unprecedented size, they are swept away.

            • In Vino 19.1.2.1.1.1

              Cool. Germany was doing this in the 70s… Aware that Cadmium and Nitrate levels were getting too high in soil and table water in agricultural areas, they acted. The Rhine had been a dead river. But when I lived in Cologne in 1979, fishermen were catching fish from the cleaned- up (relatively) river. But they knew it would not be wise to eat the fish. Verboten. They explained to me why they threw them back into the river.
              We live in hope, unlike righties, who wish in wilful ignorance.
              We should have stared acting years ago like the Germans, but here we have Fonterra advertising that we live in a clean, dairy-for-life paradise.

              • Stuart Munro

                Fonterra are going to find out what happens when you try to fool your customers pretty soon. Reckon it’ll get a bit bumpy.

                • In Vino

                  Bumpy and bloody sad.

                  • savenz

                    Luckily not so bumpy for Fonterra CEO Theo Spierings who can take his 8 million plus salary and run. Lucky he’s not measured on either profits (Fonterra down $100million less than in the previous year, staff lay offs, in 2015 more than 700 staff were laid off, debt, Agricultural debt has risen over $60billion in the last few years, or any environmental targets…. )

                    You have to wonder WTF????

  19. mosa 20

    Its is funny that for years the National party has used the Greens as a scare tactic to ensure that the public have serious doubts about the destruction a Green appointed minister would do to the country if allowed to be in charge of anything , or god forbid the finance role would not bear thinking about.

    Yet here we are with National with its invitation to come in and help prop up everything the Green party and its voters despise to maintain government.

    The things you do when you are just short of the magic 61 seats and imagine being in opposition and not the beehive.

    The Greens will see right through this of course and will have to wait just a little longer to play their part in a proggressive government that is serious about real change.

  20. Adrian 21

    Hows this for playing silly buggers.
    Labour should be talking to David Seymour, yeah, yeah, I know, it’s because Winston is most likely to go with sitting on the cross benches and Seymour has been shit on from a great height by English ” Fuck off old boy we don’t need you now” and if Labour/Green get a few more on the finals with Seymour they could equal Nats.
    Now that would be fun.
    It’s more likely than Nat/ Green and scadenfruede is a lovely thing to behold.

  21. nzsage 22

    Personally I think it’s great news the MSM are calling for Peters to work with the Natz.

    After all Peters LOVES the media and is sure to do their bidding…right?

    Meanwhile the Greens will meet the Natz and string them along all the way.

    Prepare for government Jacinda!

  22. greg 23

    nobody wants to play with bill the snitch and the rest of yesterdays gang

  23. eco maori 24

    I bet that all the swing voters that voted national are men whom are not up with the play on economics.
    I have talked to a few and I get dum ass quote’s from them interest rates will go up under Labour and they say when Labour was in government interest rates were high .
    My reply is that interest rates were high all over the World an that the reason interest rates are low is because of the GFC and other country’s are keeping interest rates low to stimulate growth in there economy and national had nothing to do with our low interest rates .
    I then turn the topic to our health system and the waiting list he could not understand my reasoning for treating any ailments with any living thing needs to be treated immediately as it is much more human and cost effective to treat the patient immediately I.E when treating a lame cow if you treat her strait away she will suffer less pain and only cost $50 if you put her on a waiting list of 3 months one would have to get a vet and have to use the most expensive antibiotics and walar there goes $500 ten times the cost well fuck I no what I would choose/ do and that is treat strait away.
    There are many examples were national have stuffed up there main goal all the time they have been in power is to hold onto that power and change policy’s to benefit there M8 and them selves plan and simple.
    A lot of men can not admit to there flaws I.E self examination and admitting they were wrong and if one can not do that than one is not going to click on to OUR reality of climate change / catastrophe poverty E.C.T . So I say to you Lady’s with men in powerful positions in OUR society kick there ass until they see reality and make them do the right thing YOU HAVE THE POWER TO DO THIS. BECAUSE THERE IN NO MULTIVERSE WE HAVE ONE PLANET AND WE MUST LOOK AFTER HER .Ka Pai

    • cleangreen 24.1

      Ka Pai Eco maori,

      Bang on there 100%.
      “I bet that all the swing voters that voted national are men whom are not up with the play on economics.”

  24. JustMe 25

    English is obviously getting desperate to court Winston Peters. I mean why should he(English)obsessively phone Winston? Is he(English)going to repeat history of the Barclay debacle and text Winston more than 300 times???!!!!
    This sorry excuse of a prime minister is an embarrassment to both the NZ National Party and for NZers.
    A mature and responsible adult wouldn’t rush someone like Winston Peters but quite obviously Bill English is neither mature let alone responsible. Winston will make his decision in HIS OWN time and once the special votes have been counted He doesn’t like being pressured especially by someone with the reputation of being a Double Dipper.
    But then English’s obvious desperation to reach a deal with Winston comes across as artificial and shallow. Over the years English has shown little or no regard to NZers especially those on low income. And now he wants to court Winston because he is so obsessed with remaining pm of New Zealand that he will resort to desperate measures and goals.
    How shallow. How pathetic. How ridiculous of a person like Bill English.

    • georgecom 25.1

      It’s worth remembering how desperate English is to be Prime Minister. Not just having it handed over to him, but being elected. In 2001 he was humiliated. When Brash left National English thought he had the chance again only for Key to snatch it away. The deal done between the 2 was for English to be Finance Minister and for Key to eventually step aside to give English some time as PM and smooth the way for him to have another go at being elected. English is desperate to be elected PM. That’s where the “moral mandate” spin comes from. English will be increasingly sick and desperate as he considers his chance may not come.

    • cleangreen 25.2

      yes JustMe,

      Bullshit Bill is history now as the days go by we are seeing most kiwis are re-awakening every morning with a ray of new realisation we could now finally rid theser evil traitors called “national” from our country and actually take it back again.

      I wake up positive again as I used to be in 2008 before the election then when Helen Clark and Michael Cullen had bought our rail back again, as part of restoring our flagging infrustructure.

  25. Sparky 26

    Oh dear poor old National. In spite of all the marketing in the world including in my opinion the majority of the MSM they are still coming up short. Reality is people can see whats in front of their own eyes. The old system is broken and needs to be replaced by something better.

  26. cleangreen 27

    National are in the shit.
    National = are known as anti-rail.
    National = are now a train wreck.

  27. rhinocrates 28

    Prostetnic Vogon Joyce on RNZ now. Hilarious.

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    Last month, NZDF's shoddy coverup of what it knew about civilian casualties in Operation Burnham began to fall apart, with the revelation that a report on the matter, which NZDF claimed not to have, had been sitting in an NZDF safe for the past nine years. Yesterday, the man responsible ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • India a major player in Earth observation satellites
    While many imagine that countries like the USA and Europe dominate space activities, in fact India is now a major player on this stage. It launches satellites for its own purposes and also commercially, and has constellations orbiting our planet and returning data of vital importance to that nation in ...
    SciBlogsBy Duncan Steel
    6 days ago
  • The rot at the top (2).
    Thanks to a report from the Acting Inspector General of Intelligence and Security following a complaint by Nicky Hager, we have come to find out that the SIS illegally spied on Mr. Hager on behalf of the NZDF after publication of Hager’s 2011 book, Other People’s Wars. The NZDF justified ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    6 days ago
  • Common misconceptions about “Global Warming”
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    An average kiwiBy admin@averagekiwi.com
    6 days ago
  • A climate of tyranny
    For the past week, Extinction Rebellion has been peacefully protesting in London to demand action on climate change. The British government's response? Ban their protests:Police have banned Extinction Rebellion protests from continuing anywhere in London, as they moved in almost without warning to clear protesters who remained at the movement’s ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Collins crushes climate
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    SciBlogsBy Robert McLachlan
    6 days ago
  • More disappointment
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    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    7 days ago
  • What do these mother-child studies really say about fluoridation?
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    7 days ago
  • Losing Labour’s Mills-Tone.
    Nothing Left To Say: Labour's pollster, Stephen Mills, remains swaddled-up in the comforting myths of the 1980s. As if the experience of Roger Douglas’s genuinely radical post-Muldoon policy agenda was literally a once-in-a-lifetime thing – as much as the party could possibly absorb for at least the next 50 years.MEMO ...
    7 days ago
  • Speaker: Disability and the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Historical Abuse
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    7 days ago
  • Spain is not a democracy
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • UK Conservatives hate democracy
    With an unfair voting system, uneven electorates and an un-elected upper house, the UK's "democracy" is barely worthy of the name. But now the government wants to make it worse:The government has been accused of suppressing voters’ rights with the potential disenfranchisement of tens of thousands of people after plans ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • What is wrong with our building industry?
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    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Local bodies
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    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • A future of government
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    SciBlogsBy Robert Hickson
    1 week ago
  • Speaker: Catalonia, interrupted
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    1 week ago
  • Sage Decisions Unwisely Over-Ruled.
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    1 week ago
  • Government may ban voting in effort to get more people to do it
    More than double the number of people who will vote in this year’s local body elections have tried marijuana or urinated somewhere they shouldn’t have. As local elections look set for the lowest turnout in decades, with many regions falling well short of 40%, the Government is exploring a number ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • Woman: Deleted.
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    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • The Hollowest of Men Ride Again… SURPRISE!
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    exhALANtBy exhalantblog
    1 week ago
  • Barbaric
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    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Is this study legit? 5 questions to ask when reading news stories of medical research
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    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    2 weeks ago
  • Fighting Monsters.
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    2 weeks ago
  • The next wave of kaupapa Māori politics: its constitutional, it must be.
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    EllipsisterBy Ellipsister
    2 weeks ago
  • Night lights of NZ from orbit
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    SciBlogsBy Duncan Steel
    2 weeks ago
  • Reporters deliver uplifting news to fleeing Japanese residents: they won’t miss any rugby
    New Zealand’s media is doing its part in Japan, reassuring those in the path of the storm that they won’t miss any rugby while away from their flooded homes. New Zealand sports reporters stationed in Japan for the Rugby World Cup have had the rare and heartwarming opportunity to inform ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Government in contentious discussions about whether to put surplus on red or black
    Regional Development Minister Shane Jones is the only Cabinet member in favour of putting it all on green. As Finance Minister Grant Robertson finds himself with an enormous $7.5 billion surplus, the Government has begun intense, at times contentious conversations about whether to put the money on red or black at ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Jordanian teachers’ successful strike has lessons for here
    by Susanne Kemp At the start of September close to 100,000 school teachers went on strike in Jordan.  They demanded a 50% pay rise.  A pay rise actually agreed to by the regime back in 2014. In early October, however, in the face of government repression and threats, the teachers’ ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Why some people still think climate change isn’t real
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    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    2 weeks ago
  • The SIS unlawfully spied on Nicky Hager
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    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • October 2019 – Newsletter
    https://mailchi.mp/7d9133add053/closing-the-gap-october-2019-newsletter ...
    Closing the GapBy Tracey Sharp
    2 weeks ago
  • And they wonder why we think they’re environmental vandals…
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    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Climate Change: Paying the price in California
    Last year, California burned. This year, to stop it happening again (or rather, to stop themselves from being found liable if it happens again), Pacific Gas and Electric is cutting power to half the state for a week:Schools are closed. Traffic lights down. Tunnels dark. Businesses unopened. Hospitals running on ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Let’s Hear It For Up-Close-And-Personal, Hard-Copy Democracy!
    The Best Way: Missing from the on-line voting debate is any reference to the voting system that produces turn-out figures ranging from 77 to 93 percent of registered voters. The voting system used to collect and count the votes cast in our parliamentary elections. The system that involves citizens making ...
    2 weeks ago
  • 10/10: World Day Against the Death Penalty
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    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Talking Freer Lives: a Marxist gender-critical perspective from Australia
    Among the great new bunch of political friends we have been making recently is the excellent Australian-based Marxist gender-critical site, Freer Lives.  So we asked the comrade who set up that blog to write something for Redline on the blog, himself, his analysis of the rise of gender politics and ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Government spin accepted by union leadership
    by Don Franks  The Auckland City Mission is struggling with a 40 percent increase in demand for food parcels this year. A total of 23,020 were needed by June. Last month Missioner Chris Farrelly told the Herald the “cupboards are bare” and without an emergency food drive, he can’t see ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 weeks ago
  • Forbidden Thoughts
    by The Council of Disobedient Women   Massey Wellington Student Association had a sit-in today. Imagine a sit-in. On a campus. Against a women’s rights meeting. Did the ’60s really happen or did we fucking dream it? They gathered in the student square, an echo chamber. Sitting on soft pillows ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 weeks ago
  • Much love to my loyal Ukrainian readership
    For some reasons, my post about the mystery message from inside the Downing Street bunker seemed to catch people's attention.  Quite a lot of hits from NZ (unsurprisingly) and the USA (a bit more puzzlingly, but hi there, USAians!!) and 76 views from the Ukraine.I've celebrated my Ukrainian readers in ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Another day of bonkers GNUmours (again, sorry)
    First, almost a score of Labour MPs seem to have sent a letter to the EU basically begging them to accept a deal - any deal - just so Britain can get the Heck on with Brexiting instead of being trapped in limbo:
    To avoid no deal, deliver on the ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Labour vs working class immigrants – again!
    by Phil Duncan In 2016 the National-led government suspended the Parent Visa Category, through which migrants were able to bring their parents into New Zealand.  Since then over 5,700 people have been in immigration limbo, stuck on the visa wait list. Labour is now bringing back the scheme.  Well, sort ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Speak Up for Women press statement: on Massey University and Feminism 2020
    The following was released yesterday (Tues, October 8) by the women’s liberation organisation Speak Up for Women. On 23 September Speak Up For Women announced that we would be holding an event at the Massey University Theaterette in Wellington. The event is called Feminism 2020. The intention of the event ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Farmers support dirty rivers
    The government is currently consulting on plans to improve freshwater quality. So naturally, farmers oppose it:South Taranaki farmers are preparing to fight proposed national freshwater changes that some fear will bankrupt them. The Government's proposed National Environment Standard on Freshwater Management, released in September, rated the Waingongoro River as one ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • No-one cares about local government
    Yesterday was the last day for (reliably) posting your vote away in local body elections. Turnouts are mostly much lower than the equivalent time last year (Palmerston North is down 2.3%), and so naturally people are pushing their online-voting snake oil again. Because the online census worked so well, lets ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago

  • Pacific Peoples Minister to attend Our Ocean Conference in Norway
    Minister for Pacific Peoples Aupito William Sio, heads to Oslo today to represent New Zealand at the sixth Our Ocean Conference, which is being hosted by the Norwegian Government from the 23-24 October. “The Our Ocean Conference mobilises real action on issues like marine plastic pollution and the impacts of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    11 hours ago
  • Government announces 27 percent increase in Trades Academy places
    Two secondary-school initiatives are being expanded as part of the Government’s plan to see more young New Zealanders take up a trade to help close the skills gap.   This includes the largest single increase in Trades Academy places in recent years. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Education Minister Chris ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    13 hours ago
  • Methane reducing cattle feed one step closer
    The Government today announced its support for a project that could substantially reduce agricultural greenhouse gas emissions from cattle. The announcement was made as part of Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s and Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor’s visit to Nelson’s Cawthron Aquaculture Park. The Cawthron Institute will receive $100,000 from the Government’s ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Bill to refresh superannuation system passes first reading
    Social Development Minister Carmel Sepuloni has welcomed the first reading of the New Zealand Superannuation and Veteran’s Pension Legislation Amendment Bill. “Every New Zealander has a stake in New Zealand Superannuation and Veteran’s Pension,” says Carmel Sepuloni. “They are our most common form of social assistance – nearly 800,000 New ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government announces next steps in fight against measles
    Babies in Auckland aged six months and over can receive a free vaccination and children will all have access to vaccines, Associate Minister of Health Julie Anne Genter announced today at Papatoetoe High School.   The move comes as part of Government efforts to step up the fight against measles. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Speech to the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs, Pacific Futures: Connections, Identity...
    ***Check against delivery*** Good morning. It is a pleasure to be here, and to have the honour of opening this important conference on behalf of the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. Let us take the opportunity to acknowledge all the people who have helped make today possible, including our special ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Police trial new response to high risk events
    Police Minister Stuart Nash says the safety of frontline officers and members of the public will be the focus of a new trial of specialist Police response teams in three of our largest urban centres. Police have this morning released details of an initiative to be trialled in Counties Manukau, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • New awards celebrate fisheries sustainability
    The Minister of Fisheries is calling for entries for a new public award to celebrate innovation in our seafood sector. “I have established the Seafood Sustainability Awards to recognise and celebrate those throughout industry, tangata whenua and communities who demonstrate outstanding dedication and innovation towards the sustainability of New Zealand’s ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • More progress for women and we can do more
    Minister for Women Julie Anne Genter welcomes leaders in the private sector taking action on closing their gender pay gaps to ensure a fairer workplace for all New Zealanders. Ms Genter today launched a new report, Addressing the gender pay gap and driving women’s representation in senior leadership, from the Champions for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Proposals to curb environmental damage help our coasts and the oceans
    Government Ministers today welcomed the release of a marine environment report highlighting the four key issues affecting our oceans, estuaries and coastlines.  The release underlines the importance of government proposals to combat climate pollution, ensure clean freshwater, protect biodiversity, make land use more sustainable, and reduce waste and plastic.    Environment ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • New mental health facility for Waikato
    The Government has approved funding for a new acute mental health facility for Waikato which will provide better care and support to people with mental health and addiction issues. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Health Minister Dr David Clark announced the $100 million project to replace the aging Henry Rongomau ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • 500 new te reo Māori champions in our classrooms
    The Government is making progress on its goal to integrate te reo Māori into education by 2025, with over 500 teachers and support staff already graduating from Te Ahu o te Reo Māori,  Associate Education Minister Kelvin Davis announced today. Kelvin Davis made the announcement at an awards ceremony in Waikanae today, for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Minister James Shaw welcomes 2018 Census first release
    Statistics Minister James Shaw has welcomed the first release of 2018 Census data. The first release of data today, 23 September, includes key data on population, regional growth, the number of homes and the size of different ethnic groups in New Zealand. Data from the 2018 Census will support the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Driving transparency, ethics and accountability in government use of algorithms
    Minister for Statistics James Shaw today announced a public consultation on a proposed algorithm charter for government agencies. The charter has been developed by the Government Chief Data Steward in response to growing calls for more transparency in government use of data. Computer algorithms – procedures or formulas for solving ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • New Zealand and the Netherlands working together on climate change
    Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor, Climate Change Minister James Shaw and visiting Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte co-hosted a business roundtable in Auckland this morning focused on working together to address climate change.  “The Netherlands is an important partner for New Zealand. We share a strong agricultural history. Sustainable agribusiness and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Protecting fairness for workers and businesses
    The Government is taking action to build an inclusive economy where more of us receive our fair share at work and businesses can compete on great products and services, not undercutting wages and conditions, Immigration and Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Iain Lees-Galloway says. Two consultations launched today seek feedback ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Indigenous Freshwater Fish Bill Passes
    The future for New Zealand’s threatened indigenous freshwater fish looks brighter with the passing of the Conservation (Indigenous Freshwater Fish) Amendment Bill in Parliament today said Minister of Conservation, Eugenie Sage. “Until now, our freshwater fish legislation has been 20 years out of date. We have lacked effective tools to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Kiwis to take part in world’s biggest earthquake drill
    At 1.30pm tomorrow, hundreds of thousands of Kiwis will join about 65 million people around the globe in ShakeOut, the world’s biggest earthquake drill. The annual drill is to remind people of the right action to take during an earthquake which is to Drop, Cover, Hold, and to practise their ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Rising wages and low inflation supporting Kiwis
    Kiwis are benefiting from higher wage growth and low inflation under the Coalition Government. Stats NZ data out today shows the rise in the cost of living remains low, as annual Consumers Price Index (CPI) inflation fell to 1.5% in September from 1.7% in June. “The low inflation comes as ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • NZ economy strong amid global headwinds
    New Zealand’s economic strength and resilience has been recognised in a major update on the state of the global economy. The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook released overnight shows a reduced global growth forecast over the next two years as issues like the US-China trade war and Brexit take hold. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Keeping New Zealanders safer with better counter-terrorism laws
    Justice Minister Andrew Little has today introduced a new Bill to prevent terrorism and support the de-radicalisation of New Zealanders returning from overseas. The Terrorism Suppression (Control Orders) Bill gives the New Zealand Police the ability to apply to the High Court to impose control orders on New Zealanders who ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Improved succession and dispute resolution core of Ture Whenua changes
    A Bill that proposes targeted changes to simplify the processes for Māori land owners when engaging with the Māori Land Court has had its First Reading today. “The approach taken by the Government is to ensure that the protection of Māori land remains a priority as we seek to improve ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Speech to CTU Biennial Conference
    Let me first thank all the new unionists and members in the room. There is nothing more important to improving people’s working lives than people making the decision to care, to get on board and help, to take up the reins and get involved. Congratulations to you. You bring the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Minister ensures continued Whenuapai flight operations
    Minister of Defence Ron Mark has signed a certificate exempting the activity of engine testing at Whenuapai Airbase from the Resource Management Act 1991. The Act gives the Minister of Defence the power to exempt activities for the purposes of national security.  The certificate will mean the recent Environment Court ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • NZ joins Coalition of Finance Ministers for Climate Action
    Finance Minister Grant Robertson has announced New Zealand will join the Coalition of Finance Ministers for Climate Action while attending APEC meetings in Chile. The objective of the 39 member Coalition is to share information and promote action to tackle climate change. It was formed in April this year, in ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Feedback Sought – Section 71 – Lyttelton Parking
    Feedback sought– Lyttelton commercial zone parking  The Associate Minister for Greater Christchurch Regeneration, Poto Williams, is seeking feedback on a proposal to remove on-site car parking requirements for new developments in the Lyttelton commercial zone.  The proposal, by Christchurch City Council, asks that powers under section 71 of the Greater ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Feedback Sought – Section 71 – Hagley Oval
    Hon Minister Poto Williams Associate Minister for Greater Christchurch Regeneration   MEDIA STATEMENT       Tuesday 15 October 2019 Feedback sought – Hagley Oval The Associate Minister for Greater Christchurch Regeneration, Poto Williams, is seeking feedback on a proposal about Hagley Oval. The proposal was developed by Regenerate Christchurch ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • CTU speech – DPM
    Ladies and gentlemen, NZCTU President Richard Wagstaff, members of respective unions – thank you for the invitation to speak to you today. This might be preaching to the choir, but the importance of trade unions in New Zealand’s historical arch is difficult to understate. And it is my belief that ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Police Association Annual Conference
    "Let’s start by acknowledging that it has been a huge year. " Police Association Annual Conference James Cook Grand Chancellor Hotel Wellington Nau mai, haere mai. Tēnā koutou, tēnā koutou, ka nui te mihi, ki a koutou katoa. President of the Police Association, Chris Cahill; Members of the Association and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • New Zealand announces a further P-3 deployment in support of UN sanctions
    Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters and Minister of Defence Ron Mark have announced the New Zealand Government’s decision to again deploy a Royal New Zealand Air Force P-3K2 (P-3) maritime patrol aircraft to support the implementation of United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions imposing sanctions against North Korea. New ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • New Zealand deeply concerned at developments in north-east Syria
    Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters says New Zealand continues to have serious concerns for peace and stability in north-east Syria. “Recent reports that hundreds of ISIS-affiliated families have fled from a camp are deeply concerning from a humanitarian and security perspective”, Mr Peters says. “While we acknowledge Turkey’s domestic security ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Government on high alert for stink bugs
    Biosecurity Minister Damien O’Connor is warning travelling Kiwis to be vigilant as the high-season for the crop-eating brown marmorated stink bug (BMSB) is under way. “We’re on high alert to stop BMSB arriving in NZ. The high season runs until April 30 and we’ve strengthened our measures to stop stink ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Better protections for students in halls of residence
    The Government is moving swiftly to change the law to improve the welfare and pastoral care of students living in university halls of residence and other tertiary hostels. Cabinet has agreed to several changes, including creating a new mandatory Code of Practice that sets out the duty of pastoral care ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • New trapping guide for community and expert trappers alike
    The Minister for Conservation Eugenie Sage has launched a new comprehensive trapping guide for community trappers to help them protect our native birds, plants and other wildlife, at Zealandia in Wellington today. ‘A practical guide to trapping’, has been developed by the Department of Conservation (DOC), and was launched during ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Widening Access to Contraceptives Welcomed
    Associate Health Minister Julie Anne Genter welcomes PHARMAC’s move to improve access to long-acting reversible contraception (LARCs). PHARMAC has today announced it will fund the full cost of Mirena and Jaydess for anyone seeking long term contraception, lifting previous restrictions on access to Mirena. “I welcome women having greater choices ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Major upgrade for Taranaki Base Hospital
    The Government has approved the next stage of a major redevelopment of Taranaki Base Hospital, which will deliver new and improved facilities for patients. Health Minister Dr David Clark has announced details of a $300 million dollar project to build a new East Wing at the New Plymouth hospital. It ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Extra support for rural families
    Extra funding will allow Rural Support Trusts to help farming families, says Minister for Rural Communities and Agriculture Damien O’Connor. “I know that rural families are worried about some of the challenges facing them, including the ongoing uncertainty created by the Mycoplasma bovis outbreak. “Those concerns sit alongside ongoing worries ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Howard Leaque Beekeeper programme graduation
    Thank you for the opportunity to be here to present certificates to the 16 graduates who have completed a beekeeping course delivered by the Howard League.  Let us start by acknowledging Auckland Prison’s Deputy Prison Director Tom Sherlock, and Acting Assistant Regional Commissioner of Corrections Northern Region Scott Walker - ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Finance Minister to attend APEC meetings
    Finance Minister Grant Robertson leaves this weekend to attend the APEC Finance Ministers meeting in Santiago, Chile. Discussions between APEC Finance Ministers at the meeting will include the effects of the current global economic uncertainty, risks for APEC economies and sustainable development of the region. While at APEC Grant Robertson ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
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  • Pacific languages are a source of strength, they ground us and build confidence
    The Minister for Pacific Peoples Aupito William Sio says for Pacific people, language can be a source of strength. It can help ground us and give us confidence. When we speak them, our languages provide us with an immediate and intimate access to our identity and our story - and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
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