Nats’ biggest ever drop in 3 News poll

Written By: - Date published: 7:11 am, October 31st, 2011 - 68 comments
Categories: election 2011, polls - Tags:

Last week I wrote about a Horizon poll which suggested that the Nats’ mishandling of the Rena disaster was costing them votes. That’s probably one of the factors behind the drop in their support in the latest 3 News / Reid poll. It’s the Nats’ largest drop (in this poll) since becoming the government.

National 52.3% (down 5.1%)
Labour:  30.2% (up 3.6%)
Greens: 9.4%
NZ First: 2.4%
Act: 1.5%
Maori: 1.4%
Mana: 0.9%
UF: 0.0%

Here’s a summary from Duncan Garner:

Gap closes between Key and Goff in poll

The first television poll of the election is out; the latest 3 News Reid Research Poll shows the gap between the National and Labour Party’s narrowing with just 27 days to go until the election.

It comes on the day National launched its campaign for a second term in office and a disruptive start to National’s campaign launch. Protestors marched out their gripe, saying there are too many kids living in poverty. The protest marks a rocky month for Prime Minister John Key.

He was criticised for the government’s slow reaction to the Rena’s grounding on Tauranga’s Astrolabe Reef, saying “we did everything we could”.

He was then accused of not telling the truth over the government’s two credit downgrades and his explanations were not convincing.

This is its biggest drop since [National] took office three years ago.

The gap is still 22 points but once you add the Greens and the possible return of Winston Peters, things get tighter for National. …

We also asked voters how are Mr Key and Mr Goff performing. Amongst those who say Mr Key is performing well, he slumps just over five points. And more people think he is doing a poor job.

A long way to go yet, but it’s an encouraging start to the election campaign for the Left.  Now if the focus turns to the Nats’ actual record while in office, their empty headed presidential-style campaign, and the clear and important policy differences between National and Labour, the next poll in this series just might show the gap closing further!

68 comments on “Nats’ biggest ever drop in 3 News poll ”

  1. infused 1

    Funny how you lot only comment on polls when they are in your favour, otherwise they are dismissed.

    [Funny how you only ever see what you want to see (cf. 1 2 3 4…) — r0b]

    • One Anonymous Bloke 1.1

      Of course a dismissal isn’t a comment at all, is it? We need better wingnuts.

    • bbfloyd 1.2

      funny how your memory only goes back a few hours infused..i can well remember dozens of posts on the many polls that get produced every year…

      now why would you forget so much, i wonder….? it isn’t just so you would have something to say that makes sense in your world is it? i don’t like to think people would just tell straight out lies just for the sake of argument….surely..you wouldn’t be that shallow and dishonest would you?

  2. Tiger Mountain 2

    Polls are certainly more fun when they match your own views. My observation as a regular Standard reader however is most of the main polls (Herald, TVNZ, TV3, Roy Morgan) good, bad or otherwise for the left, regularly get a fair airing and some analysis here.

  3. burt 3

    Obviously a rogue poll – lol.

  4. vto 4

    It was interesting to see that tv3 put Key’s doodlebery handshake at the RWC final into the mix of that piece. First time I had seen it. What a dufus – reached out, the hand was taken, but he continued to fumble around and grab at what he could, before giving up and getting a proper handshake in at the end. he he he, funny.

  5. higherstandard 5

    Why don’t you run a graphic of the three main polls on the site somewhere and update them as a new result is released – would let people see the trends over time going into the election.

  6. ianmac 6

    I don’t remember Garner actually saying that Labour was up 3.6%? I think he just said that Labour was up a bit. Oh my memory.

  7. Tangled up in blue 7

    the possible return of Winston Peters

    I don’t see how NZF is going to double it’s support in 27 days.

    • Lanthanide 7.1

      Winston Peters made the point that they polled 1% before the 2008 election and got 4.7%.

      • Alwyn 7.1.1

        Did Winston really claim that his party got 4.7% in 2008 or is this just a typo.
        NZF got 4.07% not 4.7% If Winston really claimed the higher number there appear to be only 3 possibilities.
        Either he was having a senior moment and simply doesn’t remember.
        Or he believes everything he reads in the Listener which I believe made this mistake a week or two ago.
        Or, and I suspect most likely, he was “tired and emotional” like his hero Rob Muldoon used to be on occasion and was simply slurring his words.
        Anyone happen to see him in action and can say which it was?
        Incidentally why do I always go into moderation? Are my comments really that provocative?

        [Your comments are in moderation because you got yourself a ban. I shouldn’t have cleared this one but I did. –r0b]

        • Alwyn 7.1.1.1

          @Rob.
          I had forgotten about that. I guess I am like most politicians in that something that happened 3 months ago is ancient history. Thank you for the answer though.
          I can’t throw myself on the mercy of the court and plead for forgiveness can I? Parole or something?

          [Lynn will see this in the comment list I hope. It’s his ban, so only he can reconsider (we don’t overrule each other). I don’t fancy your chances, but you never know! — r0b]

  8. Craig Glen Eden 8

    infused is confused! Either that or they are trolling.

  9. randal 9

    garenr and espiner were made for each other. they should get a room.

  10. Scotty 10

    No surprise to hear Garner on radio live yesterday running one of Nationals attack lines for them.

    “That labour want you to work for two more years ,just to pay for the GST off bananas”

    or words to that effect.

    • Tombstone 10.1

      But hang on, am I not going to have to work longer to pay for the unaffordable tax cuts that Key has doled out to the rich by the way of borrowing millions each week?

      • aerobubble 10.1.1

        Worse, you’ve been paying more tax, on the first 5,000, had you moved to Oz, the uk…

        oh, wait, its even worse, favorable capital gains exemptions means managers
        have much easier decisions to make, and so can’t attract a higher pay
        for exceptionism, profits are easier to make, the ranks of managing boards
        have less ?acumine?, so that the suppose genius of economics, Brash…

        say stuff like trust him shale oil will save us and even though he was
        pro cgt now he thinks its stupid because labours reasons are stupid,
        which means everyone else but labours reasons are of no interest to
        him….

        We’re run by second class managers who have been selected to fail,
        becuase in failure they leave assets easy to sell to foreigners.

  11. KJT 11

    Shows “you cannot fool all of the people all of the time”.

    • aerobubble 11.1

      money talks, money wants cheap assets, so it buys legislators (honestly too
      thick to notice or too full of themseves) and cgt gets exempted from tax.
      managers are easier to find as the pressure on them is eased, so wages
      fall. Then the idiot savant class use lower wages to keep exemption
      of tax on cgt, keep higher taxes on the first 5,000, on fresh food,
      all have massive costs on nz, health, poverty, exodus of bright people
      who read between the lines and realize. That national know the problem
      and thats all national needs to know.

      offs low polling is in part because he is a late comer to the realization
      the a cgt. but national still don’t even get how stupid they sound.
      profits at the cost of productivity is dumb, bu thats exact
      what we get when we take the pressure off our second
      rate manager workforce.

  12. The Gormless Fool formerly known as Oleolebiscuitbarrell 12

    Only, do I remember correctly that the last 3 News Poll was a little out of whack with the others in having National surprisingly high. If so, this probably shows no significant movement, just a correction of the earlier rogue result.

    • KJT 12.1

      Possibly. But I think the polls are deliberately skewed to the right anyway.

      As evidenced by the ones that reckoned Banks would take Auckland.

  13. One Anonymous Bloke 13

    “…deliberately skewed”? I think there’s a case to be made for skewed, but you’re going to have to work hard to convince me it’s deliberate.

    • Lanthanide 13.1

      What about when it is pointed out over and over again that their methodology is flawed and produces biased results and they apparently do nothing about it?

      • One Anonymous Bloke 13.1.1

        My understanding is that they are always looking for better methodology to stay in the game. Bias isn’t surprising, we’ve all got one, but again, bias is one thing deliberate is another.
        In any case, we have a problem with bias in the media (false balance, inadequate research, cut-and paste press releases etc.) as it is: I suspect this has a far larger effect on poll results than any methodological flaws.

        • Colonial Viper 13.1.1.1

          Time the Left Wing had its own MSM.

          • One Anonymous Bloke 13.1.1.1.1

            Well, to be honest the Right needs better media too: at the moment they have nothing but a set of shallow cheer leaders, and we can see the dumbing down of right-wing “philosophy” as a result.

    • KJT 13.2

      You don’t think there was something strange about all those polls in Auckland who said Banks was going to win.

      I can’t believe that 51% of voters have not seen through National by now. My conservative business mates have. At least two are going to vote Labour, after a lifetime of being National supporters.
      Asset sales do not make business sense.

      • Jim Nald 13.2.1

        My brother, a staunch National voter, has been grudgingly conceding that the National Party, under John Key, is no longer what it was but has been becoming a vehicle for corporate thieves.

        • Hami Shearlie 13.2.1.1

          Bring him over from the dark side Jim, over to the light, the light of reality!

          • Colonial Viper 13.2.1.1.1

            I talked to long time National supporters over the weekend, and those that were going to vote National again were doing so either reluctantly…or simply out of habit.

            Interestingly NONE were impressed with the leadership of this Government, giving it passable marks at best. Although several harped on about what a good businessman John Key was. I tried to set them straight 🙂

            • One Anonymous Bloke 13.2.1.1.1.1

              Yeah, as if! Key’s never run a business in his life, let alone owned one.

      • Kty 13.2.2

        What I have a problem with is the number of people polled, they say that they use around 1000 random respondants that they base their information on to get these results, all well and good but there are about 3,000,000 eligible voters. ths means the core sample used would be approx 0.03%
        of the eligible vote.
        Or have I got this all wrong.

        • Lanthanide 13.2.2.1

          You’re correct, Kty, but statistics can be used to show with a high confidence (95%) that an appropriate sample size will represent the true reality at that point in time.

          There are two key things to note, though:
          – When a poll gives a margin of error, say +/- 4%, it means that individual numbers might be off by that much either side, so the Greens on 11% might actually be 15% in reality, and National on 54% might be 50% in reality.

          – Polls are generally done at the 95% confidence interval. That means we can be sure that 95 times out of 100, the poll results, when taking account of the margin of error, will represent reality. The other 5 / 100 times reality will be outside the margin of error as reported; eg Greens might actually be 20% and National might actually be 40%. Probabilistically the error is likely to be close to the actual results, but it is still possible that reality could actually be Greens at 30% and National at 30% but the poll only showed 11% / 54%.

          Another assumption that they make is that their sample is representative of the population they’re wishing to measure. If it isn’t, then unless additional steps are taken to remove bias, the results are highly unlikely to match reality.

          By doing numerous polls over time, as well as different companies doing polls at the same time, we can get an idea of whether the margin of error and the confidence interval are justified. The 3 main polls have been generally agreeable for the last few years, while the Horizon poll has been an extreme outlier. So generally Horizon is viewed as being unreliable.

          The only problem is that when you’re relying on a bunch of polls that all have the same bias in them, it becomes very difficult to detect that such a bias exists. At the moment there is an assertion that the main 3 polls are biased in that they use landlines, which no longer give them a genuine representative sample of the population.

          In short: the fact that they’re only using ~1,000 people is perfectly valid as long as the correct statistical methods are being used. The problem is that there is quite a bit of doubt in the current landline based methodology that these pollsters are using.

          • Colonial Viper 13.2.2.1.1

            Good stats refresher thanks 🙂

          • Kty 13.2.2.1.2

            Thanks for that.

          • Deuto 13.2.2.1.3

            Thanks for this excellent summary. I was trying to explain this to a neighbour yesterday so will print this off for him as it puts it much more clearly than I managed. His view was that the election was a foregone conclusion based on the polls, so why bother voting when his vote would not make any difference.

  14. Jenny 14

    Well I’ll be damned.

    Let’s hope this trend holds up and accelerates.

  15. Uturn 15

    It’s probably a bit late to influence the campaign message machine now, but I think the next biggest thing for Labour to actively challenge is this idea of benefit bludgers.

    There was a comment here a few days ago about “…uneducated women turning out failures and supported by the workers…” that devolved into a host of common nutty slogans, but they sounded like genuinely held beliefs, not just trolling. Much like a person might believe in a particular god, and never really question why or how or who. Once those slogans were challenged, the ideas behind them rapidly fell apart. NZ has a lot of those unsupportable beliefs about work, such as,

    “…work hard and you’ll get a ahead…”

    “No job? Then just volunteer and improve your CV…”

    Or they get specific, but just as ignorant,

    “Mow lawns for your friends and then start working for yourself…”

    “Go back to school and get more qualifications…”

    These entrenched attitudes towards work and how one finds it might have worked once, for someone, at a specific time, but it dismisses the luck of place, time, resources and connections inherent in anyone’s life. People who have tried these routes as isolated attempts and have failed will know. It’s not that you were lazy or didn’t plan or didn’t try hard enough or didn’t want it enough, it just didn’t work.

    Once these otherwise useful ideas become slogans, the person who already spends all their time organising a few kids and cannot afford to go back to school or start their own business is written off as lazy, bludging and in need of punishment to wake them up. Calling someone lazy or a bludger does not dissolve the true daily reality of the person who needs state assistance to survive. Being on the DPB (for example) doesn’t mean the challenge of raising children is somehow easier – as if the children now never get sick or hungry, rise at 5am every morning to make their own lunches and breakfast and come afterwards polite and fulfilled straight into homework, shower and bed.

    The identity of persons on a benefit isn’t that they are beneficiaries. They’re real people – with all the same troubles and potential as anyone else.

    I have met people in real life who utter beneficiary myths. It’s nonsense of course – least of all, the DPB isn’t just for women. A person on the UEB isn’t an inherently bad worker who sleeps till 3pm each afternoon. A person on the sickness benefit isn’t relaxing comfortably on the couch because they simply don’t want to work, “…shifted there from the UEB by the last government to fudge the stats.” These strange myths people use to categorise others outside their personal circle of friends and contacts isn’t always malicious. It’s just a lack of information. The human brain has a funny way of imagining that things it doesn’t often see, don’t actually exist.

    I wonder if it is not time for the Labour machine to move away from presenting Welfare policy as simply stats, dollars and an ideal. It should not be allowed to be tied to overseas/borrowed debt at all. It is not a question of who pays, but who watches the result of not paying. An ideal is clean and tidy and never gets hungry. You can ignore it and come back a month later and nothing has changed. Once you start to realise that babies effected by malnutrition or young men with third world diseases isn’t a happy thing to watch, or a productive future labour pool, you have to question whether our country needs to reconsider its aspirational values of buying a second car, a holiday beach house or hosting the Olympic games.

    If welfare isn’t linked to borrowing/debt, but is understood to be a moral question, investigations into how we fund – not if we fund it – is a collective step forward. Labour have already gone some ways to inspect reality with their opening address, but the criticisms of detractors also provide useful suggestion: we’ve seen the candidates introduce themselves to the back-drop of bush, school yards, machinery and in cars rolling through towns that have seen better days. We’ve heard what life once was and how government assistance helped then, but the photos are flat, dead-eyed and black and white. It risks the impression that the problems happened long ago, somewhere in the past when it was hard to be a single woman, but now it’s all solved. It’s time to get out of the car, into the school rooms, into the workplaces and introduce the people living a real life. NZ needs to see what some Labour MPs already know exists.

    Clearly this needs to be done with respect and discretion, but there needs to be a real human face to the range of situations that require assistance. State money doesn’t just roll past like a river, taken from a pay packet and disappering off into the ether, never really understood unless it floods or dries up. It effects people every day.

    National will roll out their cuts to the benefit system and people will align on whether it matches their idea of beneficiaries; whether it matches the purely fantastical myths they’ve built up in their heads. If they were shown just what it means to live with State assistance, there could be a shift from those who are simply uninformed. Long term, it may re-educate people about what is really happening in their own streets and communities and where NZ is headed. Labour now has the country’s attention. They control the debate. I think that those who vote National because they have never challenged their unexamined beliefs, might move to Labour once the reality of benefits cuts is clear.

    • TightyRighty 15.1

      LOLWUT? someone with enough time on their hands on a monday morning to write that amount of twaddle must surely be a benny. Shady astroturfing by vested interests. hallmark of the left.

      [lprent: I have fitted 600 word posts into a 15 minute coffee break. They don’t get edited too well, have typos, and usually have quite a lot of pasting from news articles. But they are often some of the most read posts on the site – like my response post on Chris Carter.

      I moderate comments during the relatively short intervals of compiles or ftp. High reading speeds and fast typing.

      Not all of us are deficient in the thinking and typing department as you appear to be or expect others to be.

      Dumbarse…]

      • kriswgtn 15.1.1

        and ur here everyday spouting your crap??

        would comment you fit in this category ya clown poor deluded clown

      • KJT 15.1.2

        I’am just taking breaks from sanding my yacht.

        What I know about commentators on here is that only one is definitely a beneficiary and most other left wing ones are SME owners, professionals or skilled trades.

      • Ianupnorth 15.1.3

        I think what he was trying to say is “I wish I was passionate instead of being another brainwashed, spoon fed, lemming of the right”

  16. KJT 16

    http://werewolf.co.nz/2011/02/ten-myths-about-welfare/

    “”The evidence for the existence of widespread benefit fraud is paltry to non-existent – despite the fact that a special fraud intelligence unit was set up in the Social Welfare department in 2007 to detect it. Last year, the department checked 29 million records, and found the benefit fraud rate (as a proportion of the total benefits paid) was a miniscule 0.10 per cent. A declining number of prosecutions – from 937 in 2009 to 789 last year – resulted.

    Of the $16 million in benefit fraud detected last year, a proportion was carried out by social welfare staff – ten of whom were sacked last year for ripping off the system – and not by beneficiaries themselves. While any level of benefit fraud is unacceptable, the $16 million a year currently being incurred is hardly an intolerable burden. Currently, New Zealanders spend $16,1 million a day on impulse purchases.

    Moreover, other forms of unacceptable behaviour leave benefit fraud far behind in the dust without attracting the same negative stereotypes. The major foreign owned banks for instance finally agreed in late 2009 – and only after being pursued at great expense through the courts by the IRD – to cough up $2.2 billion of what they owed in unpaid taxes. Meaning : the settlement figure this case alone was about 140 times greater than the total amount lost in benefit fraud last year.””.

    Beneficiaries are ourselves.
    Most of us are only a prolonged illness or a period of bad luck away from needing a benefit.
    Look on it as cheap State supplied, income replacement insurance if you like.
    Their is no way a private company would private universal comprehensive income insurance for the same price.

  17. Very good points, Uturn.

    One of the rhetorical backdrops to the increased inequality in New Zealand is the notion that there is us (the middle class, those ‘getting by’, perhaps the mythical ‘aspirational’ class) and them (‘beneficiaries’ – excluding superannuitants – the ‘underclass’, the ‘bludgers’, the ‘stupid’, the ‘slackers’, etc.).

    Until New Zealanders have the maturity to see each other as people first then, so far as I’m concerned, all the tripe about ‘one nation’, ‘one law for all’ and other nauseating (because cruel and empty) rhetoric can go take a running jump.

    New Zealanders who despise and look down upon large groups of their fellow citizens and residents are the biggest obstacle to any remotely humane future society in New Zealand.

    It takes more than a few RWC parades to make national unity a reality. It takes all of us acting towards each other with some measure of respect and apportionment of dignity. 

    At a policy level, that means treating people as people, not ‘labour units’, a ‘drag on the economy’, criminals in waiting, etc.. 

    • Ianupnorth 17.1

      Thought much the same; re. ‘benny bashing’ – for me it is far worse those with their snouts constantly in the trough wasting money at corporate do’s, than people receiving a benefit when they could possibly return to work.
       
      It is similar to certain industries screaming for government compensation because of rain/snow/drought/broken gas pipes, etc, but denouncing workers who want a living wage.
      He aha te mea nui o te Ao?
      He tangata, he tangata, he tangata!

      What is the greatest thing of the world? People, People, People.

  18. Richard Down South 18

    the election will be interesting… i think the greens will get alot more votes than theyre polling atm, talking to people who are traditionally National and Labour voters (they want the greens to temper the Nats, or to keep Labour on their toes)

  19. Nick C 19

    Meh this just brings it into line with other polls, the previous TV3 poll was clearly a bit out there.

    You still have to contend with the fact that you effectively need a Green-Labour majority to govern. Winston isn’t going to be back, Goff has ruled out Hone, and Dunne has all but thrown his weight behind National. I guess the Maori Party (although a resurgent Labour in this senario would win Tamaki-Makaurau, so only 2 seats) is a possibility but there are a few bridges to repair there first.

    Unless… http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/blogs/david-farrar-by-the-numbers/5864793/An-ACT-Labour-coalition

  20. Craig 20

    I concur with the Labour/Green coalition conclusions. The Rena disaster has highlighted National’s hamfisted strategic risk management approach and indiscriminate slashing of public service expertise and capacity in that context. Now, we need something else to go wrong and highlight that, hopefully without loss of life. However, given the Nats and their approach to capacity, risk and strategic management, that may well be likely.

    • Colonial Viper 20.1

      Well without wishing another round of John Key bad luck on this country, Labour must be prepared to respond immediately to another ‘violent tremor’ (whether literal or figurative).

  21. gingercrush 21

    Well if I was Labour I’d be happy. Doesn’t really matter that National is still above 50% and they’re 30%. It shows Labour going up and more significantly shows Labour dropping 5%. Even though 52% is far more realistic. That drop is news especially as there is less than 4 weeks to go. Also despite the delusions here about New Zealand’s bias media. Its Labour that has been getting the good news. National’s has been average or in terms of the opening address, absolutely dreadful.

    • Zaphod Beeblebrox 21.1

      Is it me or does it seem that National are not prepared for a campaign at all? They haven’t changed their strategy or even their billboards from last time and they don’t seem to be announcing any significant policy.

      If their line about a $16B Labour black hole gets refuted when Cunliffe produces his costings (and you assume he will)- I’m not sure what they will be campaigning on. Little old ladies scared of crime? Bene-bashing? Business costs? They can produce the standard lines of the right but I’m sure labour will be ready for them.

      They don;’t get any marks for originality.

      • gingercrush 21.1.1

        National could always be more bold but that just doesn’t seem to be part of their strategy. Last time it worked and there were even accusations national was promising too much despite the financial crisis. I think the worldwide financial crisis is just as dangerous this time yet neither party has been called out for what they’re promising.

        National’s billboards are pretty good and better than Labour’s in my opinion. Labour’s billboards are crimson red so they appear much warmer than previous Labour billboards. But I have a problem with their candidate billboards that don’t say on them Vote Labour. I don’t quite understand why Labour didn’t keep their, “Give two ticks to Labour”. Not all Nationals billboards do that but they do it far more often than Labours. Though the best billboard I’ve seen so far was Rahui Katene’s even if it doesn’t make much sense for them to go for the party vote.

        All these costings either party spout about are always open to interpretation so I’m not sure if that argument holds sway. Whatever Labour releases about their costs could some way be refuted. National’s strategy is John Key and to do say and do as little as possible (though the past few days they’ve been opening their mouths a bit too much). That worked well in 2008 and Labour didn’t help matters when they constantly went after Key. I’m not sure it’ll work as well this time. As Labour’s focus is still on John Key but unlike 2008 they’re actually releasing policy.

        But a National party is essentially a conservative government where they will gradually move right-wards while keeping most of what the left implemented when in power. It tends to work too. And will work this year.

        • Zaphod Beeblebrox 21.1.1.1

          National have a large poll lead, so its unlikely they will get as low as 45% Party vote if they play it safe. The problem fro them will be that they won’t be seen to stand for anything when they get back into parliament with possibly the Maori Party as their partner.

          By not having any trademark policies they are setting themeslves up to be a lameduck government during next term IMO. Labour will be the party of reform and will have all their positions staked out and identified. When the Treasury lie of 4% GDP growth and 170K jobs does not materialise they will be forced to cut spending, sell assets, cut WFF and super further which will erode GDP growth even further.

          When the credit rating agencies get round to cutting NZ’s rating, Labour will be able to sit back and say to the electorate- we told you so.

          Playing it safe is not always the smart option.

    • Carol 21.2

      Also despite the delusions here about New Zealand’s bias media. Its Labour that has been getting the good news.

      Once election campaigns begin, the media need to make a concerted effort to show they are giving all sides a balanced amount of exposure. They know they will be heavily scrutinised on this.

      Up til this point a lot of Labour’s announcements/criticisms of the government have been sidelined or ignored. Clever of Labour to wait til the campaign proper to really front-foot their campaign and new policy announcements, thus ensuring they get maximum exposure!

      • gingercrush 21.2.1

        Actually I think Labour always does well when it comes to the media as its not like any of National’s budgets got overwhelmingly support and Labour’s criticisms of National policies have been getting covered in all three years of this National government.

        Only you lot seem to think any positives given to National and criticisms of Labour are automatically featured as bias. Many on the right also subscribe to that notion. I find it numbingly stupid.

        • Carol 21.2.1.1

          GQ, I watch parliament, and have seen many significant criticisms by opposition parties ignored or marginalised by the MSM. Ditto for many press releases by opposition parties. Marginalisation can include the way it’s presented in the MSM – opposition/criticism buried inside papers or on TV slots that are watched by a minoirty. headlines for key’s photo ops, positive coverage of the government at the top of articles (m any people don’t read beyon the headlines or first paragraph – opposition stuff at the bottom of articles and/or given a negative slant…. I have been watching.

          The MSM tend to focus on sensationalist stuff, fun stuff etc, and marginalise the nitty gritty of politics.

          ad hominems don’t amount to a critical argument.

          • gingercrush 21.2.1.1.1

            I’ve been watching too. And no party can expect all their press releases to be included as news. And I’m not sure why you would expect many of them to even be news. Labour’s opinions are given prominence. Last year with the gst/tax switch. Labour point that the GST would push up inflation meaning some people were worse off gained a lot of prominence.

            I think you’re just being blind to your own prejudices. And I love how you lot go on and on about the bias with John Key yet completely ignore that between 1999 and 2003/2004 the same criticisms you make could have been applied to Helen Clark and Labour.

            Also MSM focusing on sensationalism etc. isn’t bias towards one spectrum of politics that is just crappy media. And there I’ll share sympathy with you. But Helen Clark and the Labour government of 1999-2008 and their increasinging move towards professional PR overwhelmingly helped that to happen. That John Key and National are doing the same is only a problem now because your party or point of view is in reserve.

            • Carol 21.2.1.1.1.1

              Yes, Clark got a lot of favourable coverage in her first term or so. However, she didn’t get favourable coverage initially as leader, and had to work hard, engaging with the media constinuous ly and pro-actively, to get that coverage. Key on the other hand was talked up by the MSM as soon as he became leader, he has been given a relatively free ride since, and it has only dropped off a little recently.

              At the end of Clark’s government, the NZ Herald in particular, to a strong turn against Labour and for National, and it has stayed that way since: eg having Nat PR person, David Farrah as a commentator.

              So, I am blind to my prejudices and you aren’t, gc? Most people are to some extent. If you look at the NZ MSM commentators and political writers overall, there are more that lean to the right. Consequently, they probably see themselves as neutral/balanced, because that’s the nature of their publication/newsroom – their centre of balance is skewed to the right.

              There is some academic research that supports the right slant in the news coverage of the 2008 election on TV1 & TV3. (by Professor Margie Comrie, Massey University, NZ, ‘Kiwi politics: The 2008 election on mainstream and Maori television’).

              See my comment on this here:
              http://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-12072011/#comment-351012
              I said:

              the data shows a bias by TV One & TV3 towards Key & National over Clark & Labour Dduring the 2008 election period. This is seen in the fact that there was a higher percentage of face time given to Nats/Key over Labour & Clark.

              And this was at a time when MSM news producers and editors are trying really hard to provide balanced coverage of the election campaigns.

              That they try harder during elections was evident in Kathryn Ryan’s comment at the beginning of the “from the left and from the right” section on None-to-Noon this morning. She asked whose turn it was to start talking, because they were in the election period and she had to be careful to give equal time to both commentators (Hooton & Williams).
              http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/20111031

              People whose views are usually favoured in forums and public spaces, tend to see anything that challenges their views as being given equal space, even when carefully recorded, and statistically analysed monitoring shows something different. I am reminded of some feminist research by Dale Spender back in the 80s. In the classrooms she monitored, the norm was that girls’ talk and teachers’ attention to girls happened around one third of the time. When this went above one third, teachers and others perceived it as girls getting more attention and talkng more than the boys.

              PS: I am a leftie, but don’t see Labour as MY party. I have voted Green Party in recent elections, and intend to do so this election.

        • Tarn 21.2.1.2

          What I find numbingly stupid is when I read National supporters comments. I feel like we are living in the movie “Idiocracy .

Links to post

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • EV road user charges bill passes
    Transport Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed the passing of legislation to move light electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) into the road user charges system from 1 April.  “It was always intended that EVs and PHEVs would be exempt from road user charges until they reached two ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    13 hours ago
  • Bill targets illegal, unregulated fishing in international waters
    New Zealand is strengthening its ability to combat illegal fishing outside its domestic waters and beef up regulation for its own commercial fishers in international waters through a Bill which had its first reading in Parliament today. The Fisheries (International Fishing and Other Matters) Amendment Bill 2023 sets out stronger ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    14 hours ago
  • Reserve Bank appointments
    Economists Carl Hansen and Professor Prasanna Gai have been appointed to the Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Committee, Finance Minister Nicola Willis announced today. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is the independent decision-making body that sets the Official Cash Rate which determines interest rates.  Carl Hansen, the executive director of Capital ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    15 hours ago
  • Stronger protections for apartment owners
    Apartment owners and buyers will soon have greater protections as further changes to the law on unit titles come into effect, Housing Minister Chris Bishop says. “The Unit Titles (Strengthening Body Corporate Governance and Other Matters) Amendment Act had already introduced some changes in December 2022 and May 2023, and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    18 hours ago
  • Travel focused on traditional partners and Middle East
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters will travel to Egypt and Europe from this weekend.    “This travel will focus on a range of New Zealand’s traditional diplomatic and security partnerships while enabling broad engagement on the urgent situation in Gaza,” Mr Peters says.   Mr Peters will attend the NATO Foreign ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    18 hours ago
  • Keep safe on our roads this Easter
    Transport Minister Simeon Brown is encouraging all road users to stay safe, plan their journeys ahead of time, and be patient with other drivers while travelling around this Easter long weekend. “Road safety is a responsibility we all share, and with increased traffic on our roads expected this Easter we ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    20 hours ago
  • Cost of living support for over 1.4 million Kiwis
    About 1.4 million New Zealanders will receive cost of living relief through increased government assistance from April 1 909,000 pensioners get a boost to Superannuation, including 5000 veterans 371,000 working-age beneficiaries will get higher payments 45,000 students will see an increase in their allowance Over a quarter of New Zealanders ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    21 hours ago
  • Tenancy reviews for social housing restart
    Ensuring social housing is being provided to those with the greatest needs is front of mind as the Government restarts social housing tenancy reviews, Associate Housing Minister Tama Potaka says. “Our relentless focus on building a strong economy is to ensure we can deliver better public services such as social ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    21 hours ago
  • Kermadec Ocean Sanctuary plan halted
    The Kermadec Ocean Sanctuary will not go ahead, with Cabinet deciding to stop work on the proposed reserve and remove the Bill that would have established it from Parliament’s order paper. “The Kermadec Ocean Sanctuary Bill would have created a 620,000 sq km economic no-go zone,” Oceans and Fisheries Minister ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    21 hours ago
  • Cutting all that dam red tape
    Dam safety regulations are being amended so that smaller dams won’t be subject to excessive compliance costs, Minister for Building and Construction Chris Penk says. “The coalition Government is focused on reducing costs and removing unnecessary red tape so we can get the economy back on track.  “Dam safety regulations ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    22 hours ago
  • Drought support extended to parts of North Island
    The coalition Government is expanding the medium-scale adverse event classification to parts of the North Island as dry weather conditions persist, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay announced today. “I have made the decision to expand the medium-scale adverse event classification already in place for parts of the South Island to also cover the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    23 hours ago
  • Passage of major tax bill welcomed
    The passing of legislation giving effect to coalition Government tax commitments has been welcomed by Finance Minister Nicola Willis.  “The Taxation (Annual Rates for 2023–24, Multinational Tax, and Remedial Matters) Bill will help place New Zealand on a more secure economic footing, improve outcomes for New Zealanders, and make our tax system ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Lifting economy through science, tertiary sectors
    Science, Innovation and Technology Minister Judith Collins and Tertiary Education and Skills Minister Penny Simmonds today announced plans to transform our science and university sectors to boost the economy. Two advisory groups, chaired by Professor Sir Peter Gluckman, will advise the Government on how these sectors can play a greater ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government announces Budget priorities
    The Budget will deliver urgently-needed tax relief to hard-working New Zealanders while putting the government’s finances back on a sustainable track, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says.  The Finance Minister made the comments at the release of the Budget Policy Statement setting out the Government’s Budget objectives. “The coalition Government intends ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government to consider accommodation solution
    The coalition Government will look at options to address a zoning issue that limits how much financial support Queenstown residents can get for accommodation. Cabinet has agreed on a response to the Petitions Committee, which had recommended the geographic information MSD uses to determine how much accommodation supplement can be ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government approves extension to Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in Care
    Cabinet has agreed to a short extension to the final reporting timeframe for the Royal Commission into Abuse in Care from 28 March 2024 to 26 June 2024, Internal Affairs Minister Brooke van Velden says.                                         “The Royal Commission wrote to me on 16 February 2024, requesting that I consider an ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • $18m boost for Kiwis travelling to health treatment
    The coalition Government is delivering an $18 million boost to New Zealanders needing to travel for specialist health treatment, Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says.   “These changes are long overdue – the National Travel Assistance (NTA) scheme saw its last increase to mileage and accommodation rates way back in 2009.  ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • PM’s Prizes for Space to showcase sector’s talent
    The Government is recognising the innovative and rising talent in New Zealand’s growing space sector, with the Prime Minister and Space Minister Judith Collins announcing the new Prime Minister’s Prizes for Space today. “New Zealand has a growing reputation as a high-value partner for space missions and research. I am ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Concerns conveyed to China over cyber activity
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has confirmed New Zealand’s concerns about cyber activity have been conveyed directly to the Chinese Government.     “The Prime Minister and Minister Collins have expressed concerns today about malicious cyber activity, attributed to groups sponsored by the Chinese Government, targeting democratic institutions in both New ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Independent Reviewers appointed for School Property Inquiry
    Independent Reviewers appointed for School Property Inquiry Education Minister Erica Stanford today announced the appointment of three independent reviewers to lead the Ministerial Inquiry into the Ministry of Education’s School Property Function.  The Inquiry will be led by former Minister of Foreign Affairs Murray McCully. “There is a clear need ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Brynderwyns open for Easter
    State Highway 1 across the Brynderwyns will be open for Easter weekend, with work currently underway to ensure the resilience of this critical route being paused for Easter Weekend to allow holiday makers to travel north, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Today I visited the Brynderwyn Hills construction site, where ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Speech to the Infrastructure Funding & Financing Conference
    Introduction Good morning to you all, and thanks for having me bright and early today. I am absolutely delighted to be the Minister for Infrastructure alongside the Minister of Housing and Resource Management Reform. I know the Prime Minister sees the three roles as closely connected and he wants me ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Parliamentary network breached by the PRC
    New Zealand stands with the United Kingdom in its condemnation of People’s Republic of China (PRC) state-backed malicious cyber activity impacting its Electoral Commission and targeting Members of the UK Parliament. “The use of cyber-enabled espionage operations to interfere with democratic institutions and processes anywhere is unacceptable,” Minister Responsible for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • NZ to provide support for Solomon Islands election
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters and Defence Minister Judith Collins today announced New Zealand will provide logistics support for the upcoming Solomon Islands election. “We’re sending a team of New Zealand Defence Force personnel and two NH90 helicopters to provide logistics support for the election on 17 April, at the request ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • NZ-EU FTA gains Royal Assent for 1 May entry to force
    The European Union Free Trade Agreement Legislation Amendment Bill received Royal Assent today, completing the process for New Zealand’s ratification of its free trade agreement with the European Union.    “I am pleased to announce that today, in a small ceremony at the Beehive, New Zealand notified the European Union ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • COVID-19 inquiry attracts 11,000 submissions
    Public consultation on the terms of reference for the Royal Commission into COVID-19 Lessons has concluded, Internal Affairs Minister Hon Brooke van Velden says.  “I have been advised that there were over 11,000 submissions made through the Royal Commission’s online consultation portal.” Expanding the scope of the Royal Commission of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Families to receive up to $75 a week help with ECE fees
    Hardworking families are set to benefit from a new credit to help them meet their early childcare education (ECE) costs, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. From 1 July, parents and caregivers of young children will be supported to manage the rising cost of living with a partial reimbursement of their ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Unlocking a sustainable, low-emissions future
    A specialised Independent Technical Advisory Group (ITAG) tasked with preparing and publishing independent non-binding advice on the design of a "green" (sustainable finance) taxonomy rulebook is being established, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says.  “Comprising experts and market participants, the ITAG's primary goal is to deliver comprehensive recommendations to the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Chief of Army thanked for his service
    Defence Minister Judith Collins has thanked the Chief of Army, Major General John Boswell, DSD, for his service as he leaves the Army after 40 years. “I would like to thank Major General Boswell for his contribution to the Army and the wider New Zealand Defence Force, undertaking many different ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Minister to meet Australian counterparts and Manufacturing Industry Leaders
    25 March 2024 Minister to meet Australian counterparts and Manufacturing Industry Leaders Small Business, Manufacturing, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly will travel to Australia for a series of bi-lateral meetings and manufacturing visits. During the visit, Minister Bayly will meet with his Australian counterparts, Senator Tim Ayres, Ed ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Government commits nearly $3 million for period products in schools
    Government commits almost $3 million for period products in schools The Coalition Government has committed $2.9 million to ensure intermediate and secondary schools continue providing period products to those who need them, Minister of Education Erica Stanford announced today. “This is an issue of dignity and ensuring young women don’t ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Speech – Making it easier to build.
    Good morning, it’s great to be here.   First, I would like to acknowledge the New Zealand Institute of Building Surveyors and thank you for the opportunity to be here this morning.  I would like to use this opportunity to outline the Government’s ambitious plan and what we hope to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Pacific youth to shine from boost to Polyfest
    Minister for Pacific Peoples Dr Shane Reti has announced the Government’s commitment to the Auckland Secondary Schools Māori and Pacific Islands Cultural Festival, more commonly known as Polyfest. “The Ministry for Pacific Peoples is a longtime supporter of Polyfest and, as it celebrates 49 years in 2024, I’m proud to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • 2024 Ngarimu VC and 28th (Māori) Battalion Memorial Scholarships announced
    ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Speech to Breast Cancer Foundation – Insights Conference
    Before moving onto the substance of today’s address, I want to recognise the very significant and ongoing contribution the Breast Cancer Foundation makes to support the lives of New Zealand women and their families living with breast cancer. I very much enjoy working with you. I also want to recognise ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Kiwi research soars to International Space Station
    New Zealand has notched up a first with the launch of University of Canterbury research to the International Space Station, Science, Innovation and Technology and Space Minister Judith Collins says. The hardware, developed by Dr Sarah Kessans, is designed to operate autonomously in orbit, allowing scientists on Earth to study ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Speech to the New Zealand Planning Institute
    Introduction Thank you for inviting me to speak with you today and I’m sorry I can’t be there in person. Yesterday I started in Wellington for Breakfast TV, spoke to a property conference in Auckland, and finished the day speaking to local government in Christchurch, so it would have been ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Support for Northland emergency response centre
    The Coalition Government is contributing more than $1 million to support the establishment of an emergency multi-agency coordination centre in Northland. Emergency Management and Recovery Minister Mark Mitchell announced the contribution today during a visit of the Whangārei site where the facility will be constructed.  “Northland has faced a number ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Celebrating 20 years of Whakaata Māori
    New Zealanders have enjoyed a broader range of voices telling the story of Aotearoa thanks to the creation of Whakaata Māori 20 years ago, says Māori Development Minister Tama Potaka. The minister spoke at a celebration marking the national indigenous media organisation’s 20th anniversary at their studio in Auckland on ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Some commercial fishery catch limits increased
    Commercial catch limits for some fisheries have been increased following a review showing stocks are healthy and abundant, Ocean and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. The changes, along with some other catch limit changes and management settings, begin coming into effect from 1 April 2024. "Regular biannual reviews of fish ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago

Page generated in The Standard by Wordpress at 2024-03-28T17:55:33+00:00