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Nats take a plunge on the Roy Morgan roundabout

Written By: - Date published: 4:27 pm, December 21st, 2016 - 128 comments
Categories: polls - Tags: ,

The erratic Roy Morgan poll has swung around again:

First poll under PM English: Govt confidence drops sharply

Labour, the big losers in the previous poll plumbing new depths at 23.0%, have been the main beneficiary rising 5.5 points to 28.5% – still below its ratings in the Reid Research poll earlier in the year.

National have fallen back to 45.0%, with all its support partners losing ground with the Maori Party down to 0.5%, ACT is also on 0.5% and United Future registers 0.0%. New Zealand First would be the kingmakers if this poll is correct; they’re on 7.5%.

The Greens, Labour’s primary support partner, register a strong 14.5% in this poll taking the Labour/Green bloc just shy of National’s support at 43.0%.

Perhaps most damning for Bill English, government confidence fell whopping 10 points this month, down to 131.0.

128 comments on “Nats take a plunge on the Roy Morgan roundabout”

  1. Ovid 1

    Polling period was 28 November – 11 December. Key announced his resignation on the 8th.

    This poll is particularly volatile so I don’t know what to draw from it. But cautious optimism is probably the best approach.

    • Carolyn_nth 1.1

      Yes, it’s too soon for polls to register the impact of John Key’s resignation.

      However, he resigned on Monday 5th December.

      • It’s not too soon for the resignation to have impacted some of the sample. (especially given how exhaustively it was covered) If anything, I would expect that the trend will show an even larger drop if the next published poll (which I expect will be a CB, but could maybe be the next RM, or an Ipsos/Fairfax one, perhaps) didn’t start until after the 5th.

        • Carolyn_nth 1.1.1.1

          I understand it can take a couple of months for a significant change to show up in political polls – and Roy Morgan doesn’t seem a very reliable poll.

          • Keith 1.1.1.1.1

            Agreed, Roy Morgan is widly all over the place and Gary Morgans guessing type analysis suggests an Australian who knows next to nothing about what makes NZ voters tick!

          • Matthew Whitehead 1.1.1.1.2

            Roy Morgan is a very reliable poll in terms of New Zealand public polling. (It’s entirely possible that UMR, or Curia do better, but given we don’t get to see the internals or hear how they’re conducted, I wouldn’t be able to opine on them) It goes up and down, but polling does that. Unlike other polling agencies, Roy Morgan generally does a very good job at getting the overall bloc numbers correct and doesn’t usually overstate support for the National Party. It is also the only poll that runs on a regular timeframe in our country, and does so even outside of campaign mode. It also releases a lot more information about the poll than any other public poll conducted of New Zealand voters, which gives it more credibility as a trustworthy source.

            It had one rogue where National were up in the 50-ish range, but it hasn’t had more than one rogue every 20 polls. That’s what you expect from a mainstream poll, because it’s actually more economical to go for a 95% confidence ratio than to poll twice as many people for a few extra percantage points shaved off your chance of having a rogue. We shouldn’t be beating up RM for being wrong once when they were engaging in a standard business practice that basically makes polling affordable in the first place. The only thing you should ignore with the RM is their post-hoc justification for why the numbers are moving, they’re not particularly careful in picking them all the time.

            The time it takes for events to register in political polling depends on the nature of the event. If it’s a high profile surprising event with lots of media coverage such as the PM’s resignation probably was, often it’ll register immediately, wheras some things like housing and poverty are slow burns. A lot of it basically depends on how likely your average voter is to know and how likely they are to dismiss the news as “normal” until it starts actually having an effect on someone they know.

    • mosa 1.2

      Ovid he announced he was resigning on the 5th December.

  2. Ad 2

    John Key was a market trader from beginning to end:

    Buy low, sell high.

    That’s how he got in, and how he left.

    Which is great for a money trader, but crap for politics.

    He spent all that political capital on nothing. Nothing.

    And now English is seeing all of that unspent and very hard won political capital just evaporate into thin air.

    Which makes me despise Key not only as a lazy politician, but also since it marks him as a very poor leader of New Zealand. I don’t even pity English for trying to inhale the last lingering notes of Key’s seductive political perfume.

    One thing I always admire about Labour governments: at least they try. They develop their political capital, then they spend it.

    The current lot don’t even try.

    • Muttonbird 2.1

      RANK: 4 John Key PM 2008-
      While unfair to rank a sitting Prime Minister, Key’s successes include multiple Treaty of Waitangi claim resolutions, successfully leading country through major financial crisis, reforming public sector with gradualist but cumulative structural reforms, and sustaining a sweet spot of low unemployment and low interest rates. The Prime Minister most at ease with the media and remains popular and effective well into third term. Broadband fibre-optic rollout, rebuild of Christchurch after earthquakes, education reforms, Auckland reforms, and major motorway and public transport investments are further achievements.

      Our most effective Prime Minister

      What’s changed?

      • Hanswurst 2.1.1

        Snap.

      • Anne 2.1.2

        Broadband fibre-optic rollout, rebuild of Christchurch after earthquakes, education reforms, Auckland reforms,…,

        Wasn’t David Cunliffe the author of the fibre-optic rollout… he did all the basic work and the Nats carried it through and took the credit.

        Education reform. I would call it an emasculation of one of the best education systems in the world.

        Auckland reforms. The super-city – found wanting in so many areas.

        • Muttonbird 2.1.2.1

          Quite.

          Just that Ad was singing Key’s praises not three months ago so I was wondering why the sudden change in critique.

          Perhaps Ad feels, like the rest on the right, abandoned by Key.

        • Gosman 2.1.2.2

          I like how you claim Cunliffe was responsible for the broadband reforms because he thought them up while the Super city had nothing to do with Labour despite the idea being hatched under their watch.

          • WILD KATIPO 2.1.2.2.1

            Really ? … I like how you claim Paula Bennett paying unemployed people $5000 to leave Auckland to look for non existent jobs and then another $2000 to come back and do it all again was a good idea as well…

            The Dipper wasn’t quite so impressed , however so I hear…

          • Leftie 2.1.2.2.2

            Gosman. Wasn’t the Super City John key’s private members bill 2006?

            • Carolyn_nth 2.1.2.2.2.1

              Hmmm… interesting.

              This 2009 blog post by Joel Cayford says this is so:

              Learned last week that John Key has more in common with Auckland governance upheaval than just being Prime Minister. Turns out that after the so-called mayoral coup in 2006 (where mayors Harvey, Curtis and Hubbard tried to tip over the ARC and went to Wellington for support), John Key MP put up his own Private Member’s Bill about it.

              It was called something like: “Auckland Governance Restructuring”.

              I haven’t seen it yet. The Bill was not drawn. So it didn’t get into Parliament. But it was ready to go into Parliament.

              Of interest is that I am advised the Bill put forward two options for restructuring. One of these was that Auckland should be restructured into a Unitary Authority and 20-30 Community Boards. Sound familiar?

      • Ad 2.1.3

        Nothing of substance.
        Which is the point.

      • alwyn 2.1.4

        He has gone up to Number 1?
        Well number 2 actually. Keith Holyoake is still number 1.

        • Ad 2.1.4.1

          You’re so Old School!

          • swordfish 2.1.4.1.1

            Yes, alwyn’s one of the more absurdly pompous of our Tory chums (in stark contrast to, say, Puckers and BM).

            The niceties of Social deference and knowing one’s place in the grand scheme of things loom large in the old dear’s thinking.

            I suspect he still refers to Kiwi Keith as Mr Holyoake and … even then … only after dressing in a 3 piece suit, impeccable shirt and tie, cufflinks (expensive hand-made cigarette in one hand, fine old malt whisky in the other) and following a short recital of God Save the Queen to show appropriate respect for the equally pompous former National Leader, PM and (in the early 30s) member of the New Zealand Legion – the closest thing the Country ever came to Fascist Brownshirts.

            I’ve decided to treat alwers very much in the same way that Horace Rumpole used to approach pompous, humourless old judges down the Old Bailey – sarcastically refer to the easily enraged fellow as “me old luv”, “sweetheart”, “me old darling” and so on ….

            • Thinkerr 2.1.4.1.1.1

              “God bless the Nats and their relations,
              and keep us in our proper stations…”

            • swordfish 2.1.4.1.1.2

              Actually, that was a little bit nasty and ageist of me.

              I’ve been just a wee bit irritated by alwyn’s tendency to lash out at people when he realises he’s on the losing side of an argument. But I’ve probably gone a bit too far there in my own little Back-lash against the poor fellow. Hardly the Christmas spirit. Good will to all Tories and all that …

              • Anne

                I discovered alwyn had a sense of humour (least I think that’s what it was) the other day so he went up in my estimation. Not by much granted but better than nothing. 😛

              • I see you both do not truly follow the principles of Sun Tzu….

                Shall we then simply content ourselves in watching the slow sinking of the National party apparatus before the general election , perhaps…

                But then again,… why pander to idiots?

        • Red Hand 2.1.4.2

          Was number 1 piss or shit ? You’ll remember.

          http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Number%202

          Ah ! found it. What a relief.

      • Nic the NZer 2.1.5

        I previously coined the phrase ‘stream of non-sequiter’ with reference to ad’s writing style. Nothing has changed there was never anything there to begin with.

    • mosa 2.2

      +100 AD

    • saveNZ 2.3

      +1 AD

  3. b waghorn 3

    collins just sat up and smiled

  4. Anne 4

    Mt Roskill byelection was on the 3rd Dec. Wouldn’t be surprised if the Nats internal polling told them there was a significant increase in Labour’s fortunes following that byelection and that’s why they stood aside in Mt. Albert.

    English’s excuse was patent hogwash because everyone knows the Nats are swimming in ready cash…

    • b waghorn 4.1

      one of henrys last political broadcasts was to push the idea that the nats shouldn’t stand so as to save tax payer dollars, then a week later surprise the nats announce they won’t stand , what ever are they going to do without their mouth piece.

      • Anne 4.1.1

        How does that save tax-payers dollars because the Nats don’t stand a candidate? It makes no difference how many candidates stand. The only way to “save tax payer dollars” was to call an early election and not have a byelection at all.

        If that’s what Henry was saying, then he’s potty.

        • ScottGN 4.1.1.1

          And let’s not forget the National Party had no compunctions about wasting 26 million dollars of our money on their stupid bloody flag referendum.

          • Anne 4.1.1.1.1

            Talking of the flag referendum, Maggie Barry had JK’s little ego-saving flag raised above her electorate office for about 6 months prior to the referendum. It stayed there for around 3 months after the referendum when someone probably ordered her to take it down and replace it with the actual flag. A bad case of denial?

            • mauī 4.1.1.1.1.1

              I only saw the new feather flag flying on rich people’s houses. A tell tale sign that you’re a wanker or a wannabe one.

              • alwyn

                They had it, along with others, flying over the Wellington Town Hall.
                Was our Green Mayor at that time a “wanker or a wannabe one”.
                Seems a bit harsh, but perhaps you knew her better than I did.

                • ScottGN

                  All Council offices around the country had all the flag options flying during the referendum including the current flag and red peak.
                  Maui’s right though, around Queenstown where I live the fern/southern cross mashup (I can’t even remember which colour scheme it was?) could only really be seen flying at big-hair houses where they had the koolaid on tap.
                  We dodged a bullet though eh? Key’s flag choice was fucking ugly.

            • Wensleydale 4.1.1.1.1.2

              I think it was just Baggy Marry’s natural inclination toward hopeless sycophancy. She wouldn’t be the first Minister to prostrate herself shamelessly at the altar of John Key.

              • Anne

                Oh yes. Barry was the most sycophantic of the sycophants when it came to John Key. His resignation must have come as a terrible shock.

          • alwyn 4.1.1.1.2

            You mean the policy that Labour had committed to in their 2014 manifesto?

        • alwyn 4.1.1.2

          You mean spend about $40 million on a General Election about a year early rather than $1 million on a by election?
          The disgraceful thing is Shearer, Just like Goff before him, has buggered off to a new job rather than serve out the time they committed to.
          At least Cunliffe and Key are going to stay and avoid forcing the taxpayer to pay for their disloyalty.

          • Muttonbird 4.1.1.2.1

            What about your man Mike Sabin? We never found out why he left you in the lurch.

            • alwyn 4.1.1.2.1.1

              “your man Mike Sabin”.
              “he left you”.
              Where on earth do you get the stupid idea that he is “my man”?
              He has nothing to do with me. I am not, and never will be a member of any party. I am a thinking voter who votes for the party who will provide the best Government for New Zealand. Since the 2005 election that has been the National Party.
              I am not however responsible for the misbehaviour, real or imagined, of some of their back bench MPs. The National party would appear to have forced Saban’s resignation. Thar was far better than Goff sitting with his thumb in his mouth after Darren Hughes’ antics, wasn’t it?

              • Muttonbird

                Isn’t Darren Hughes the darling of the right wing trolls now?

                He’s the pin-up boy for those trying to defend the poor behaviour of National MPs.

              • @ alwyn

                ‘ I am a thinking voter who votes for the party who will provide the best Government for New Zealand ‘

                Really ?…. your a ‘ thinking ‘ voter?… I would say you are either an easily suckered fool or a deliberate National party liar / sycophant.

                ……………………………………………………………………………..
                ‘ Parkin and Sabin had worked as a team, armed with shotgun microphones, baiting Dotcom and Corkery to achieve their agenda. Their actions belie a well-worn mainstream news media strategy to go to an event pursuing a news agenda that is at odds with the purpose of the event and then blame the targeted group for losing control.

                Amid her frustration, Internet Party press secretary Pam Corkery had angrily asked the two TV journalists, “When will you glove puppets of Cameron Slater just piss off?”

                In referring to the right-wing blogger Cameron Slater, Corkery was essentially saying that Brook Sabin and Michael Parkin were political hit-men working covertly for the likes of Slater, who has used his popular Whale Oil blog to attack the National Party’s political opponents since prior to the 2008 election, when Key won power.

                Slater, along with other right-wing bloggers, such as Kiwiblog writer David Farrar, who has virtually lived a double-life as National’s chief pollster, were exposed in mid-August by internationally-respected journalist Nicky Hager with his book, Dirty Politics: How Attack Politics is Poisoning New Zealand’s Political Environment.[vii] ‘
                ……………………………………………………………………………..

                And here’s the link to demonstrate your ugly fetish for an ugly political party that is now dropping in the polls like a stone.

                https://snoopman.wordpress.com/tag/brook-sabin/

                snoopman.net.nz/…/armed-with-microphones-part-i-how-and-why-two-political-hit-…

                And with behavior such as this…. its no real wonder why at all they are…

                • alwyn

                  I really don’t understand what you are going on about.
                  Still, I suppose if it makes you happy you may as well enjoy(?) yourself.
                  KDS at work I suppose.
                  As for Nicky Hager. Isn’t he the one who had a go about Helen Clark?
                  And the one who complained about the Post describing him as an “activist”. That was found to be fair wasn’t it?
                  http://www.presscouncil.org.nz/rulings/nicky-hager-against-the-evening-post
                  “Internationally respected”. You really are delusional, aren’t you?

                  • ‘ I really don’t understand what you are going on about.’

                    Figures. But then again , easy to say and admit your thick as pigshit when it comes to being in denial about your precious far right wing neo liberalism when the truths presented to you..

                    ‘ KDS at work I suppose.’

                    This ones amusing , – when all else fails , – fall back on acronyms and stupid internet sayings that a psychologist would only laugh at. Sayings that only demonstrate the childish mentality of the far right wing neo liberal in their ‘ tactics’… one could say your simply a sycophant for a leader who has now resigned and left you in the lurch…

                    ‘ As for Nicky Hager. Isn’t he the one who had a go about Helen Clark? ‘

                    Indeed he did. … And rightly so as Clark was simply a softly softly continuum of the far right wing neo liberal agenda. You’d best drop the ‘ Labour did it too ‘ fall back contingency remarks as Clark wins no awards from those of us opposed to neo liberalism . And BTW … if your tempted to equate communism with social democracy ?

                    Dont.

                    And by that I mean a return to a true social democracy with a Keynesian based economy. And that means to the likes of you – horror upon horrors – big government and regulations to hold seriously greedy bastards like you in check.

                    ‘ “Internationally respected”. You really are delusional, aren’t you? ‘

                    I think you will find there’s nothing ‘ delusional’ about Dirty Politics in New Zealand being covered globally by leading news outlets … perhaps the definition of ‘delusional ‘ would be far better served by the sort of political hero’s you choose that act like this :

                    • reason

                      KDS is an excellent marker …………….. those who use this childish ‘your mental’ insult are either trolls … or members in the cult of key…… which means they are either dishonest …… or stupid.

                      Check out the posters who use it ………….. It’s a 100% accurate marker.

                    • Tophat

                      Hi my name is Tophat and I am a recovering KDS sufferer…
                      It has been 17 days now since my last outburst of KDS.
                      Initially I was in denial even though I couldn’t even see a picture of Key in the media without getting my heckles up. Key’s voice alone would rile me into a lather and fofoo valves would burst throughout.
                      I thought I had suddenly sprung an interest in politics, but no it was just the burning hatred I hold for all sycophants and their supporters that had reared it’s ugly head.
                      Key has gone now though and I am able to relax as Natz will surely hand over the government to the rightful governors of our fair country, Labour.
                      Although I feel a little tremor when I read the ignorant shit that comes out of posters like alwyn, Bm, Fisiani and associates, I know that they are empty vessels who themselves must seek recovery for their personal obsessions in their own time.
                      I am confident that some day soon the likes of alwyn will learn to take the cock out of their mouth before they posts their BS.
                      Thank you for letting me share.

                  • Marcus Morris

                    Wrong.

                    I suggest that you take a look at the following entry in Wikipedia

                    ” He is the only New Zealand member of the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists.”

                    and then look at some of the work that the ICIJ has done including the expose of the Panama Papers.

                    And yes, I believe that Nicky Hager is apolitical. “Seeds of Distrust” almost sank Labour. What he does do it seek out the truth and he does that pretty well. A book that everyone should read is “Other People’s Wars” which is as relevant to day as it was when it was first published.

                    As for Muttonbird’s assertion of Auckland reforms – I wonder where he lives. Possible Invercargill with a pseudonym like that- and best not to start on Education reform?

          • North 4.1.1.2.2

            Bitter Butter On Toast Alwyn. Poor person Alwyn. Raison d’etre has fucked off. Leaving a babe so distraught and orphan-like…….not a jot of sympathy for Alwyn-Circus-Goer.

            • alwyn 4.1.1.2.2.1

              Why it’s dopey again.
              When are you going to apologise for the lies you kept telling about me dopey?
              Come on, admit you are a lying SOB. You really can’t keep it up forever.

              • ‘ Dem bones, dem bones, dem dry bones,
                Dem bones, dem bones, dem dry bones,
                Dem bones, dem bones, dem dry bones,
                Now shake dem skeleton bones! ‘

                And that’s all that’s left of the National party now your lovely Mr Key up and left them in the lurch. Grief is a difficult thing,… and yes it does take time. But in time also, you’ll come to accept the fact, along with the inevitable decline National is just showing early signs of now.

                In 8 months time or less,… expect National to be polling consistently in the late 30’s.

                And don’t think Winston’s going to come to your rescue either,… hes already stated his bottom line for entering any agreement,… and as far as that goes?

                The same party that has indulged in collusion is the same one that will be wearing Pike River around its neck like an Albatross.

          • ScottGN 4.1.1.2.3

            Jesus that’s shitty, even for you alwyn. Shearer’s going to work in The Sudan for fuck’s sake, at the request of the UN – not quite the same as buggering off to Hawaii.
            Anyway you want to talk about an unnecessary by-election? Lets talk about Jamie Lee-Ross’ wife who chucked a hissy fit and quit moments after getting elected because she didn’t get the plum council job she wanted.

            • alwyn 4.1.1.2.3.1

              Well there really is a difference you know.
              Key is not resigning from Parliament and inflicting a by election on the taxpayer.
              I am willing to bet that half the MPs will be wandering off overseas during the break.
              Wasn’t Little supposed to have missed a couple of weeks of Parliament heading to Nepal or somewhere? Cancelled it at the last moment. Of course in his case the taxpayer would have been paying for the trip rather than the MP himself.

              As far as the lady you mention. I have never heard of her and know nothing about your supposed story.

        • b waghorn 4.1.1.3

          henry went on to say the rest of the parties shouldn’t oppose labour either meaning no labour would get the seat with no election needed, and yes henry is potty but he had a nack of preempting nat decisions , a fluke ? i think not

        • mosa 4.1.1.4

          Quite right Anne.

    • fisiani 4.2

      You are correct Anne. National internal polling shows Labour at 35% and Greens at
      12 % whilst National is at 44%. No one getting sleep in National over the summer.

      • Muttonbird 4.2.1

        More people now think the country is heading in the wrong direction.

        It doesn’t matter that home-owners will party vote National and that they are happy because their assets are making them rich beyond their wildest dreams, because they are being swamped by people who have been left out in the cold. It’s a soft revolution of the current government’s own making.

        • Macro 4.2.1.1

          Only half of homeowners (according to the Fizz) vote National, and as they only represent 60% of the population – and are declining in numbers as we speak – that’s just 30% vote for National, and steadily going out the back door.

  5. One Anonymous Bloke 5

    After the last two Roy Morgans I wouldn’t be surprised if the next one has the Nats at 38%, or 58%, or any point in between.

    Bouncy doesn’t begin to describe it. How can Labour lose eight percent then gain five in the space of three polls? It’s ridiculous.

    I’m picking the B team will be worth minus five points, and now Roy Morgan says so, I’m clearly flat wrong.

  6. ianmac 6

    The last Morgan Poll, with Labour at 23%, was quoted numerousl times by “pundits” so wonder if the same ones will quote a Morgan Labour 5% jump.
    Will they? Nah!

  7. ScottGN 7

    Here’s the crux of it from Gary Morgan;

    “Looking towards next year’s election the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Issues research shows the issue of Housing – including Housing affordability/ Housing prices/ Homelessness/ Homeless is now the biggest problem facing New Zealand according to respondents – mentioned by 27% of New Zealanders in October. This problem is particularly acute in New Zealand’s largest city of Auckland – mentioned by 37% of respondents.

    “If new PM Bill English is to successfully contest next year’s New Zealand election and win a fourth term for the National Government he will need to come up with new policies in the area of Housing to convince New Zealand electors he deserves his own mandate as Prime Minister.”

    • Muttonbird 7.1

      Yet fisiani and other housing unaffordability and poverty deniers state that everyone is happy in Auckland and they will all party vote National because they are all getting rich off their assets.

      This report seems to suggest otherwise. fisiani is either lying or out of touch with issues facing Aucklanders. Probably both.

      National can’t/won’t address these issues and increasing numbers of Aucklanders are beginning to realise this.

      • WILD KATIPO 7.1.1

        And that’s the problem with people like fizpop, … they are victims of their own ideology – one that has no answer except fudging the facts and stats – which inevitably leads to them having to make stuff up or worse yet – outright lie about issues.

        And lying seems to be a true hallmark of the far right wing neo liberal.

  8. Pat 8

    to paraphrase “spud” Bolger…bugger the polls

  9. fisiani 9

    All the people with houses are voters. Their assets have risen in value. New Zealand is an affluent country and the vast majority are happy.

    • Muttonbird 9.1

      Their numbers are dropping and National government policy has driven this drop.

      National are contributing to their own demise.

    • Macro 9.2

      Only around 60% of nzers now “own” a home, and that is the lowest percentage of the population in years. Many of the ones who are in debt to a bank however, are now up so indebted that any significant rise in interest rates could see them in jeapody.

    • North 9.3

      End of FusedAnus story. I am happy therefore everyone is happy.

    • fizpop seems to not know the first laws of physics and shares…

      ‘ What goes up , must come down’ .

      And just how do you think these ‘ voters’ will feel when they are saddled with mortgages worth far more than the houses worth , fizpop?

      Expect a massive and bitter turning away from the National party in droves when the world economy takes a hit – which is predicted to be sooner rather than later according to an article by Liam Dann in the NZ Herald today.

      • ropata 9.4.1

        All the housing bubble needs is a slight turn in interest rates, artificially suppressed for 8 years now post GFC. Whats the bet that Bling will bow down to the bankers demands for a pound of flesh, and Kiwi home “owners” will have to pay

    • michelle 9.5

      the vast majority are happy how do you know fisiani or did you just make it up

  10. The Chairman 10

    “New Zealand First would be the kingmakers if this poll is correct”

    That will be interesting, Winston says Pike River re-entry is a bottom line to any election deals.

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/87550741/winston-peters-says-pike-river-reentry-is-bottom-line-to-election-deals

    • fisiani 10.1

      Winston should go in and then it should be sealed.

      • North 10.1.1

        Thank you for acknowledging the fact of shit running down your legs Fisiani……..which is exactly what you did with your comment @ 10.1 re the man I will vote for in Northland electorate 2017. Which man will win. Handsomely.

        Cue your shrieking friend Alwyn with bitter, near defamatory shit about Winnie being a soak.

        Like the old fulla on “Dads’ Army” always said……..”They do not like it up ’em !”

      • WILD KATIPO 10.1.2

        Regarding Pike River… eminent world mining experts plans rejected by Bill English and Solid Energy .

        The reports

        The plan to re-enter the mine (pdf)
        Rowland and Moreby review (pdf)
        Robinson review (pdf)

        NEWSFLASH !!!

        Nats fear whats down in the mine and use their lackeys Solid Energy to be the bovver boys to carry out the hit and continue the plausible denial strategy !!!!

      • Paul 10.1.3

        What an unpleasant comment.
        From an unpleasant troll.

    • Sam C 10.2

      Ha! And you really think that will be Winnie’s position at General Election time with the baubles of power glittering?

      • BM 10.2.1

        Yeah, he’s really channelling Trump at the moment.

      • The Chairman 10.2.2

        @ Sam C

        We’re only several months out from the election now, therefore he’d be mad to make such a bottom line if he wasn’t serious about it.

        • Sam C 10.2.2.1

          “He’d be mad”… there’s your answer right there.

          Look at you all, lining up to cuddle up with that odious, racist little man.

          • WILD KATIPO 10.2.2.1.1

            Racist ?… racist?…

            Can the Kiwi buy property in China?

            You know the way you far right wing neo liberals carry on ,… the new definition in New Zealand today is ‘ Work Slaves ‘ and ‘ Tenant Slaves’ …Slaves in our own land…

            And when those interest rates go up just a teensy weensy little bit and these so – called ‘ National voters’ find they are now paying more in mortgage repayments than the house and land is worth …. guess who’s going to cop the blame for deliberately letting it get that way…

            So,… since you believe in neo liberalism and hence a form of servitude and Work / Tenant slavery … here’s an apt flag for you to fly .

          • The Chairman 10.2.2.1.2

            I don’t believe he’s mad or racist.

            If National want the baubles of power and require to cuddle up to him, it seems they are going to have to swallow some big rats.

      • WILD KATIPO 10.2.3

        ‘ Ha! And you really think that will be Winnie’s position at General Election time with the baubles of power glittering? ‘

        Nah mate – Winnies just looked at the trends and knows a sure fire thing when he sees one.

        • Whispering Kate 10.2.3.1

          I am with you Wild Katipo, I don’t think Winnie would go back on his word for fear of voter backlash. There are a lot of people out there who vote for Winnie or may be considering it, who want that mine opened to find out what went wrong down there, for future lives to be saved it has to be done. Personally I think this is a subtle way for Winnie to steer voters without actually declaring his intentions. National will not open up that mine for fear of what will be discovered.

          Winnie has not had a rosy relationship with National in the past and Labour/Greens will offer him enough baubles and maybe Foreign Minister, where he may prefer to be wining and dining on the big stage, in gratitude if he goes into coalition with them.

          • Sam C 10.2.3.1.1

            yes, because Winnie has a really rosy relationship with the Greens, doesn’t he?

            Winnie hated Key. Now Key has gone, there is nothing stopping him getting back in to bed with National.

            Take the blinkers off, Whispering Kate.

            • Cinny 10.2.3.1.1.1

              Sam do you watch parliament? Maybe you need to take your blinkers off?

              It appears that some Tories are wanting Winny to side with Nats, maybe because they are concerned about the coming election and that type of thinking gives them some sort of comfort.

            • Robert Guyton 10.2.3.1.1.2

              “Winnie hated Key…” – while Sam C adored Key. Now, Sam C hopes that Winnie will go with National, Sam C’s crew!
              It couldn’t get any more twisted!

            • Whispering Kate 10.2.3.1.1.3

              Sam C Winnie has been a bit more accommodating with the Greens lately, National are looking tired with the same old useless heaps in Cabinet. Not only useless but nasty buggers with it. Winnie may not want to have his legacy known for associating with a Government that is neglectful of the provinces, disregards the vulnerable and frankly are not fit for purpose. Key, for once I am in agreement, got out because even he thought his legacy would be munted, not for worthy reasons, but for his own selfish reasons.

              Time will tell but Winnie does not have good history with National and unfortunately he has fallen out with Labour in the past, that’s Winnie and that’s not going to change, but the one big thing that stands in his way – he will want a decent legacy for the history books and National will not give that to him. I have no need for blinkers, my eyesight is okay and my antennae is tuned just fine.

          • David C 10.2.3.1.2

            Winnie wont be there in 2020 to see the backlash.
            All he wants is power and he will do and say anything to get it.

          • Marcus Morris 10.2.3.1.3

            Winnie is a wily old fox who will do what is good for Winnie. Most on the Left thought he would go with Labour in 1996 and there was considerable dismay and accusations of duplicity when he finally went with the Nats.

            Remember his great “denial” 2008 – how many votes did that cost Labour.
            Winnie can be more than economical with the truth when it suits him.

            • WILD KATIPO 10.2.3.1.3.1

              Hes made a few blunders for sure ,… but as for going with National he hoped he could work within the system of neo liberalism and curb some of its excesses.

              The fact he hated Jenny Shipley and Richardson was evident. He did manage to curb ( and in the process created powerful adversaries ) some of those excesses,… however to this very day … he remains one of the ONLY political voices in this country who OPENLY names and shames neo liberalism on a regular basis.

              It will be a sad day when he retires.

  11. GregJ 11

    What I can’t believe is how Roy Morgan makes any money from this shit. Who would pay them to do any sort of polling?

    Surely 2016 has shown, with Brexit and the US elections, that the traditional polling paradigm has shifted – whether it is because we are now in a post-truth world or cynicism and distrust is so high that people will happily bullshit pollsters, or that in a complex multi-media world polling needs to become more sophisticated and wide-ranging, or whatever…

    I generally don’t comment on polling posts as I’ve long regard this sort of opinion polling a waste of time – a lazy way for media organisations to generate faux news stories and pretend they are actually engaging in proper political analysis. A tool of political propagandists and spin doctors.

    A plague on all their houses…bah, humbug. 😡

  12. swordfish 12

    .
    2014 Election vs Latest (Dec 2016) Roy Morgan

    L+G = Lab + Green
    NZF = New Zealand First
    Oppo = Opposition bloc
    Nat = National
    N/L+G = Nat’s percentage point lead over L+G
    Govt = Government Bloc
    Right = Govt + Cons
    O/G = Oppo lead over Govt = bold / vice versa = standard typeface
    .
    (numbers rounded for simplicity)
    .
    .

    …….L+G……NZF……Oppo……Nat……N/L+G……Govt……Right……O/G
    .

    2014 Election
    …….36………..9………..46………..47……….11…………49……….53……….3
    .

    Latest (Dec 2016) Roy Morgan

    …….43……….8………….51………..45………..2………….47……….48……….4
    .

    Diff

    …….+ 7……..- 1…………+ 5………- 2………..- 9………..- 2………..- 5………- 7

    • David C 12.1

      If you take into account all the wasted votes in ’14 because of KDC it looks even worse for Nat too.

      • WILD KATIPO 12.1.1

        If you take into account the bland face of far right wing neo liberalism aka Bill ‘Double Dipper’ English and his clown deputy Paula ‘ Pullyer Benefit ‘ Bennett that also explains the trends.

        Nationals sunk.

  13. Adrian 13

    In our short little road in a gorgeous Marlborough rural slice of heaven two property sales have fallen through in the last few weeks, the Auckland buyers couldn’t,t sell their houses.
    There’s one of your reasons for JK abandoning ship, he knows when to sell or bail, before he gets blamed for it.
    I,m sure they are nice people but can’t help thinking we’ve dodged a couple of bullets.
    ( oh, you cynical bastard)

  14. Marcus Morris 14

    Out of interest, and it may be that most posters here are two young to remember it, but there is a precedent for the current situation. Keith Holyoake as he was at the time) resigned “quietly” in early 1972 to give his natural successor “Gentleman” Jack Marshall a clear run to the November election. The result was a landslide victory to Labour. Will hispory be repeated?
    There are two essential differences. Labour was then led by the charismatic Norm Kirk (Andrew Little is not really in the same league) and Marshall was constantly being undermined by one Robert Muldoon (as he was at the time). Will the rejected Judith Collins play a similar role.

    Time will tell.

    • swordfish 14.1

      Interesting comparison.

      Muldoon was far more popular than Collins, though. When polls started asking leadership preference questions in 1969 (similar to today’s Preferred PM measure) … Finance Minister Muldoon was already ahead of everyone else – Holyoake, Marshall and Kirk – even though he was still two leadership changes away from toppling Gentleman Jack.

      Hence, dear old Rob’s words carried much greater force with a crucial section of Nat supporters and swing voters than Crusher’s ever would (even though Collins does have a niche constituency within the Blue Team). Then, again, voters aren’t overly keen on any signs of disunity in a Party, and – like Rob – Crusher does have an intrinsic personal interest in quietly sabotaging the Nats chances, so ….

      Kirk was interesting in that he certainly did have charismatic tendencies (and shone in debates), but at the same time was quietly spoken. He wasn’t an over the top psuedo-Blokeish Boofhead (with David Brent tendencies) like Key. A much more serious politician (not that Key’s underlying agenda was necessarily casual or unfocussed, mind you).

      And, funnily enough, despite Labour’s landslide in 72, Kirk remained on pretty low leader preference numbers (similar to Little’s) over the 3 year run-up, even during the Election campaign itself (which he dominated). Much has been made by certain historians of Kirk’s post-69 “make-over” (lost weight, let his hair grow, bought several new suits, turned from “fat” into “large and distinguished”, with a shock of curly silver hair) but, in fact, none of that seemed to impact on his low popularity numbers in 1969-72 opinion polls.

      Difference is though: tribal voting was significantly greater in those days and leadership traits played a lesser (though by no means insubstantial) role. Strong partisan alignment has been declining since the 1960s – not only in New Zealand but throughout western liberal democracies. More and more non-aligned and (in particular) softly-aligned voters now – in tandem with an obvious Presidentialisation of politics (the latter partly the consequence of the former). A new era of swing voters and valence issues.

      So, in contrast to Kirk in 72, Little can’t rely on the same large band of fiercely loyal Labour voters to see him through (the intense fallout from Rogernomics, of course, greatly exacerbated this long-term process of de-alignment already underway for Labour).

      • Ethica 14.1.1

        But Muldoon’s popularity soon dived. Muldoon got fewer votes than Labour in 1978 and 81 but kept power with gerrymandered rural electorates. The quietly spoken, highly ethical Rowling would have won the 1978 election under MMP.

        • swordfish 14.1.1.1

          Muldoon was very much a polariser. In fact, a net negative polariser. Certainly attracted many voters (“Rob’s Mob”) purely because of his perceived leadership qualities but, at the same time, actually managed to Repel even more.

          And his personal support levels (even in the early days when he was easily the most popular leader in the Country) were never close to Helen Clark’s or John Key’s ratings at their apex. But then the same goes for all Party Leaders and PMs since regular polling began. Clark and Key have dominated in a way that no one else (including Lange) over the last 50 years ever could.

          Interestingly, (and this dovetails with your argument) although Rowling had a reputation for supposedly being “weak” and always suffered lower Preferred PM numbers than Muldoon, more detailed polling suggested the net effect on the vote of attitudes towards the two leaders at the 1975, 78 and 81 Elections actually showed a healthy advantage for Labour. Rowling didn’t polarise, Muldoon did.

          Hence, as paradoxical as it may sound, High Preferred PM-polling Muldoon actually managed to reduce his party’s winning margin in all three elections (it’s a bit of a shock to think that National’s monumental landslide in 75 would have been even greater if it wasn’t for Muldoon’s negative effect on a portion of swing voters).

          Funnily enough, Key stands out because he managed to squander those exceedingly high Favourability ratings in the polls, ending up – over the last year or so – in the same ball park as Muldoon = a polariser who repels as many as he attracts.

          Best not to tell Fisi, though. Risks cognitive dissonance.

  15. Marcus Morris 15

    Agree with all you say Swordfish and Ethica. Labour’s mantra in ’72 was “Time for a change” and it worked. You are right of course, under MMP, Rowling would have beaten Muldoon in 1978 and again in 1981 albeit marginally. ’81 was when Social Credit got 21% of the vote but only one seat. I think that this was about the time the country really started talking about the need for some kind of proportional representation. FPTP was seen to be demonstrably unfair. It took another fifteen years to make the change and we live in a very different world now.

  16. For the past 8 years the Nat’s have always opened their speeches with
    ‘”Under this John Key government” now he has gone we are going to be ear bashed with Bennett’s sob story regarding the poor old solo-mum nonsense. Would be interested to know how she managed to have full time University attendance as a solo mum I wonder how many real solo-mums managed to do that?

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