Nats take a plunge on the Roy Morgan roundabout

Written By: - Date published: 4:27 pm, December 21st, 2016 - 128 comments
Categories: polls - Tags: ,

The erratic Roy Morgan poll has swung around again:

First poll under PM English: Govt confidence drops sharply
…
Labour, the big losers in the previous poll plumbing new depths at 23.0%, have been the main beneficiary rising 5.5 points to 28.5% – still below its ratings in the Reid Research poll earlier in the year.

National have fallen back to 45.0%, with all its support partners losing ground with the Maori Party down to 0.5%, ACT is also on 0.5% and United Future registers 0.0%. New Zealand First would be the kingmakers if this poll is correct; they’re on 7.5%.

The Greens, Labour’s primary support partner, register a strong 14.5% in this poll taking the Labour/Green bloc just shy of National’s support at 43.0%.
…
Perhaps most damning for Bill English, government confidence fell whopping 10 points this month, down to 131.0.

128 comments on “Nats take a plunge on the Roy Morgan roundabout ”

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  1. Ovid 1
    21 December 2016 at 4:51 pm

    Polling period was 28 November – 11 December. Key announced his resignation on the 8th.

    This poll is particularly volatile so I don’t know what to draw from it. But cautious optimism is probably the best approach.

    • Carolyn_nth 1.1
      21 December 2016 at 5:21 pm

      Yes, it’s too soon for polls to register the impact of John Key’s resignation.

      However, he resigned on Monday 5th December.

      • Matthew Whitehead 1.1.1
        21 December 2016 at 6:25 pm

        It’s not too soon for the resignation to have impacted some of the sample. (especially given how exhaustively it was covered) If anything, I would expect that the trend will show an even larger drop if the next published poll (which I expect will be a CB, but could maybe be the next RM, or an Ipsos/Fairfax one, perhaps) didn’t start until after the 5th.

        • Carolyn_nth 1.1.1.1
          21 December 2016 at 6:28 pm

          I understand it can take a couple of months for a significant change to show up in political polls – and Roy Morgan doesn’t seem a very reliable poll.

          • Keith 1.1.1.1.1
            22 December 2016 at 8:37 am

            Agreed, Roy Morgan is widly all over the place and Gary Morgans guessing type analysis suggests an Australian who knows next to nothing about what makes NZ voters tick!

          • Matthew Whitehead 1.1.1.1.2
            22 December 2016 at 1:32 pm

            Roy Morgan is a very reliable poll in terms of New Zealand public polling. (It’s entirely possible that UMR, or Curia do better, but given we don’t get to see the internals or hear how they’re conducted, I wouldn’t be able to opine on them) It goes up and down, but polling does that. Unlike other polling agencies, Roy Morgan generally does a very good job at getting the overall bloc numbers correct and doesn’t usually overstate support for the National Party. It is also the only poll that runs on a regular timeframe in our country, and does so even outside of campaign mode. It also releases a lot more information about the poll than any other public poll conducted of New Zealand voters, which gives it more credibility as a trustworthy source.

            It had one rogue where National were up in the 50-ish range, but it hasn’t had more than one rogue every 20 polls. That’s what you expect from a mainstream poll, because it’s actually more economical to go for a 95% confidence ratio than to poll twice as many people for a few extra percantage points shaved off your chance of having a rogue. We shouldn’t be beating up RM for being wrong once when they were engaging in a standard business practice that basically makes polling affordable in the first place. The only thing you should ignore with the RM is their post-hoc justification for why the numbers are moving, they’re not particularly careful in picking them all the time.

            The time it takes for events to register in political polling depends on the nature of the event. If it’s a high profile surprising event with lots of media coverage such as the PM’s resignation probably was, often it’ll register immediately, wheras some things like housing and poverty are slow burns. A lot of it basically depends on how likely your average voter is to know and how likely they are to dismiss the news as “normal” until it starts actually having an effect on someone they know.

    • mosa 1.2
      22 December 2016 at 10:06 am

      Ovid he announced he was resigning on the 5th December.

  2. Ad 2
    21 December 2016 at 5:13 pm

    John Key was a market trader from beginning to end:

    Buy low, sell high.

    That’s how he got in, and how he left.

    Which is great for a money trader, but crap for politics.

    He spent all that political capital on nothing. Nothing.

    And now English is seeing all of that unspent and very hard won political capital just evaporate into thin air.

    Which makes me despise Key not only as a lazy politician, but also since it marks him as a very poor leader of New Zealand. I don’t even pity English for trying to inhale the last lingering notes of Key’s seductive political perfume.

    One thing I always admire about Labour governments: at least they try. They develop their political capital, then they spend it.

    The current lot don’t even try.

    • Muttonbird 2.1
      21 December 2016 at 6:49 pm

      RANK: 4 John Key PM 2008-
      While unfair to rank a sitting Prime Minister, Key’s successes include multiple Treaty of Waitangi claim resolutions, successfully leading country through major financial crisis, reforming public sector with gradualist but cumulative structural reforms, and sustaining a sweet spot of low unemployment and low interest rates. The Prime Minister most at ease with the media and remains popular and effective well into third term. Broadband fibre-optic rollout, rebuild of Christchurch after earthquakes, education reforms, Auckland reforms, and major motorway and public transport investments are further achievements.

      https://thestandard.org.nz/our-most-effective-prime-minister/

      What’s changed?

      • Hanswurst 2.1.1
        21 December 2016 at 6:52 pm

        Snap.

      • Anne 2.1.2
        21 December 2016 at 6:59 pm

        Broadband fibre-optic rollout, rebuild of Christchurch after earthquakes, education reforms, Auckland reforms,…,

        Wasn’t David Cunliffe the author of the fibre-optic rollout… he did all the basic work and the Nats carried it through and took the credit.

        Education reform. I would call it an emasculation of one of the best education systems in the world.

        Auckland reforms. The super-city – found wanting in so many areas.

        • Muttonbird 2.1.2.1
          21 December 2016 at 7:07 pm

          Quite.

          Just that Ad was singing Key’s praises not three months ago so I was wondering why the sudden change in critique.

          Perhaps Ad feels, like the rest on the right, abandoned by Key.

        • Gosman 2.1.2.2
          22 December 2016 at 4:53 am

          I like how you claim Cunliffe was responsible for the broadband reforms because he thought them up while the Super city had nothing to do with Labour despite the idea being hatched under their watch.

          • WILD KATIPO 2.1.2.2.1
            22 December 2016 at 8:25 am

            Really ? … I like how you claim Paula Bennett paying unemployed people $5000 to leave Auckland to look for non existent jobs and then another $2000 to come back and do it all again was a good idea as well…

            The Dipper wasn’t quite so impressed , however so I hear…

          • Leftie 2.1.2.2.2
            23 December 2016 at 3:04 am

            Gosman. Wasn’t the Super City John key’s private members bill 2006?

            • Carolyn_nth 2.1.2.2.2.1
              23 December 2016 at 7:43 am

              Hmmm… interesting.

              This 2009 blog post by Joel Cayford says this is so:

              Learned last week that John Key has more in common with Auckland governance upheaval than just being Prime Minister. Turns out that after the so-called mayoral coup in 2006 (where mayors Harvey, Curtis and Hubbard tried to tip over the ARC and went to Wellington for support), John Key MP put up his own Private Member’s Bill about it.

              It was called something like: “Auckland Governance Restructuring”.

              I haven’t seen it yet. The Bill was not drawn. So it didn’t get into Parliament. But it was ready to go into Parliament.

              Of interest is that I am advised the Bill put forward two options for restructuring. One of these was that Auckland should be restructured into a Unitary Authority and 20-30 Community Boards. Sound familiar?

      • Ad 2.1.3
        21 December 2016 at 7:02 pm

        Nothing of substance.
        Which is the point.

      • alwyn 2.1.4
        21 December 2016 at 7:11 pm

        He has gone up to Number 1?
        Well number 2 actually. Keith Holyoake is still number 1.

        • Ad 2.1.4.1
          21 December 2016 at 8:46 pm

          You’re so Old School!

          • swordfish 2.1.4.1.1
            21 December 2016 at 11:12 pm

            Yes, alwyn’s one of the more absurdly pompous of our Tory chums (in stark contrast to, say, Puckers and BM).

            The niceties of Social deference and knowing one’s place in the grand scheme of things loom large in the old dear’s thinking.

            I suspect he still refers to Kiwi Keith as Mr Holyoake and … even then … only after dressing in a 3 piece suit, impeccable shirt and tie, cufflinks (expensive hand-made cigarette in one hand, fine old malt whisky in the other) and following a short recital of God Save the Queen to show appropriate respect for the equally pompous former National Leader, PM and (in the early 30s) member of the New Zealand Legion – the closest thing the Country ever came to Fascist Brownshirts.

            I’ve decided to treat alwers very much in the same way that Horace Rumpole used to approach pompous, humourless old judges down the Old Bailey – sarcastically refer to the easily enraged fellow as “me old luv”, “sweetheart”, “me old darling” and so on ….

            • Thinkerr 2.1.4.1.1.1
              22 December 2016 at 7:50 am

              “God bless the Nats and their relations,
              and keep us in our proper stations…”

            • swordfish 2.1.4.1.1.2
              22 December 2016 at 8:44 am

              Actually, that was a little bit nasty and ageist of me.

              I’ve been just a wee bit irritated by alwyn’s tendency to lash out at people when he realises he’s on the losing side of an argument. But I’ve probably gone a bit too far there in my own little Back-lash against the poor fellow. Hardly the Christmas spirit. Good will to all Tories and all that …

              • Anne …
                22 December 2016 at 8:48 am

                I discovered alwyn had a sense of humour (least I think that’s what it was) the other day so he went up in my estimation. Not by much granted but better than nothing. 😛

              • WILD KATIPO …
                22 December 2016 at 8:49 am

                I see you both do not truly follow the principles of Sun Tzu….

                Shall we then simply content ourselves in watching the slow sinking of the National party apparatus before the general election , perhaps…

                But then again,… why pander to idiots?

        • Red Hand 2.1.4.2
          22 December 2016 at 7:29 pm

          Was number 1 piss or shit ? You’ll remember.

          http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Number%202

          Ah ! found it. What a relief.

      • Nic the NZer 2.1.5
        28 December 2016 at 12:48 pm

        I previously coined the phrase ‘stream of non-sequiter’ with reference to ad’s writing style. Nothing has changed there was never anything there to begin with.

    • mosa 2.2
      22 December 2016 at 10:14 am

      +100 AD

    • saveNZ 2.3
      24 December 2016 at 10:44 am

      +1 AD

  3. b waghorn 3
    21 December 2016 at 5:37 pm

    collins just sat up and smiled

  4. Anne 4
    21 December 2016 at 5:40 pm

    Mt Roskill byelection was on the 3rd Dec. Wouldn’t be surprised if the Nats internal polling told them there was a significant increase in Labour’s fortunes following that byelection and that’s why they stood aside in Mt. Albert.

    English’s excuse was patent hogwash because everyone knows the Nats are swimming in ready cash…

    • b waghorn 4.1
      21 December 2016 at 6:15 pm

      one of henrys last political broadcasts was to push the idea that the nats shouldn’t stand so as to save tax payer dollars, then a week later surprise the nats announce they won’t stand , what ever are they going to do without their mouth piece.

      • Anne 4.1.1
        21 December 2016 at 6:47 pm

        How does that save tax-payers dollars because the Nats don’t stand a candidate? It makes no difference how many candidates stand. The only way to “save tax payer dollars” was to call an early election and not have a byelection at all.

        If that’s what Henry was saying, then he’s potty.

        • ScottGN 4.1.1.1
          21 December 2016 at 6:58 pm

          And let’s not forget the National Party had no compunctions about wasting 26 million dollars of our money on their stupid bloody flag referendum.

          • Anne 4.1.1.1.1
            21 December 2016 at 7:16 pm

            Talking of the flag referendum, Maggie Barry had JK’s little ego-saving flag raised above her electorate office for about 6 months prior to the referendum. It stayed there for around 3 months after the referendum when someone probably ordered her to take it down and replace it with the actual flag. A bad case of denial?

            • mauī 4.1.1.1.1.1
              21 December 2016 at 7:41 pm

              I only saw the new feather flag flying on rich people’s houses. A tell tale sign that you’re a wanker or a wannabe one.

              • alwyn …
                21 December 2016 at 10:42 pm

                They had it, along with others, flying over the Wellington Town Hall.
                Was our Green Mayor at that time a “wanker or a wannabe one”.
                Seems a bit harsh, but perhaps you knew her better than I did.

                • ScottGN …
                  22 December 2016 at 6:11 am

                  All Council offices around the country had all the flag options flying during the referendum including the current flag and red peak.
                  Maui’s right though, around Queenstown where I live the fern/southern cross mashup (I can’t even remember which colour scheme it was?) could only really be seen flying at big-hair houses where they had the koolaid on tap.
                  We dodged a bullet though eh? Key’s flag choice was fucking ugly.

            • Wensleydale 4.1.1.1.1.2
              22 December 2016 at 10:55 am

              I think it was just Baggy Marry’s natural inclination toward hopeless sycophancy. She wouldn’t be the first Minister to prostrate herself shamelessly at the altar of John Key.

              • Anne …
                22 December 2016 at 11:09 am

                Oh yes. Barry was the most sycophantic of the sycophants when it came to John Key. His resignation must have come as a terrible shock.

          • alwyn 4.1.1.1.2
            21 December 2016 at 7:20 pm

            You mean the policy that Labour had committed to in their 2014 manifesto?

        • alwyn 4.1.1.2
          21 December 2016 at 7:15 pm

          You mean spend about $40 million on a General Election about a year early rather than $1 million on a by election?
          The disgraceful thing is Shearer, Just like Goff before him, has buggered off to a new job rather than serve out the time they committed to.
          At least Cunliffe and Key are going to stay and avoid forcing the taxpayer to pay for their disloyalty.

          • Muttonbird 4.1.1.2.1
            21 December 2016 at 7:28 pm

            What about your man Mike Sabin? We never found out why he left you in the lurch.

            • alwyn 4.1.1.2.1.1
              21 December 2016 at 8:13 pm

              “your man Mike Sabin”.
              “he left you”.
              Where on earth do you get the stupid idea that he is “my man”?
              He has nothing to do with me. I am not, and never will be a member of any party. I am a thinking voter who votes for the party who will provide the best Government for New Zealand. Since the 2005 election that has been the National Party.
              I am not however responsible for the misbehaviour, real or imagined, of some of their back bench MPs. The National party would appear to have forced Saban’s resignation. Thar was far better than Goff sitting with his thumb in his mouth after Darren Hughes’ antics, wasn’t it?

              • Muttonbird …
                21 December 2016 at 8:20 pm

                Isn’t Darren Hughes the darling of the right wing trolls now?

                He’s the pin-up boy for those trying to defend the poor behaviour of National MPs.

              • WILD KATIPO …
                21 December 2016 at 10:14 pm

                @ alwyn

                ‘ I am a thinking voter who votes for the party who will provide the best Government for New Zealand ‘

                Really ?…. your a ‘ thinking ‘ voter?… I would say you are either an easily suckered fool or a deliberate National party liar / sycophant.

                ……………………………………………………………………………..
                ‘ Parkin and Sabin had worked as a team, armed with shotgun microphones, baiting Dotcom and Corkery to achieve their agenda. Their actions belie a well-worn mainstream news media strategy to go to an event pursuing a news agenda that is at odds with the purpose of the event and then blame the targeted group for losing control.

                Amid her frustration, Internet Party press secretary Pam Corkery had angrily asked the two TV journalists, “When will you glove puppets of Cameron Slater just piss off?”

                In referring to the right-wing blogger Cameron Slater, Corkery was essentially saying that Brook Sabin and Michael Parkin were political hit-men working covertly for the likes of Slater, who has used his popular Whale Oil blog to attack the National Party’s political opponents since prior to the 2008 election, when Key won power.

                Slater, along with other right-wing bloggers, such as Kiwiblog writer David Farrar, who has virtually lived a double-life as National’s chief pollster, were exposed in mid-August by internationally-respected journalist Nicky Hager with his book, Dirty Politics: How Attack Politics is Poisoning New Zealand’s Political Environment.[vii] ‘
                ……………………………………………………………………………..

                And here’s the link to demonstrate your ugly fetish for an ugly political party that is now dropping in the polls like a stone.

                https://snoopman.wordpress.com/tag/brook-sabin/

                snoopman.net.nz/…/armed-with-microphones-part-i-how-and-why-two-political-hit-…

                And with behavior such as this…. its no real wonder why at all they are…

                • alwyn …
                  21 December 2016 at 10:33 pm

                  I really don’t understand what you are going on about.
                  Still, I suppose if it makes you happy you may as well enjoy(?) yourself.
                  KDS at work I suppose.
                  As for Nicky Hager. Isn’t he the one who had a go about Helen Clark?
                  And the one who complained about the Post describing him as an “activist”. That was found to be fair wasn’t it?
                  http://www.presscouncil.org.nz/rulings/nicky-hager-against-the-evening-post
                  “Internationally respected”. You really are delusional, aren’t you?

                  • WILD KATIPO …
                    21 December 2016 at 11:15 pm

                    ‘ I really don’t understand what you are going on about.’

                    Figures. But then again , easy to say and admit your thick as pigshit when it comes to being in denial about your precious far right wing neo liberalism when the truths presented to you..

                    ‘ KDS at work I suppose.’

                    This ones amusing , – when all else fails , – fall back on acronyms and stupid internet sayings that a psychologist would only laugh at. Sayings that only demonstrate the childish mentality of the far right wing neo liberal in their ‘ tactics’… one could say your simply a sycophant for a leader who has now resigned and left you in the lurch…

                    ‘ As for Nicky Hager. Isn’t he the one who had a go about Helen Clark? ‘

                    Indeed he did. … And rightly so as Clark was simply a softly softly continuum of the far right wing neo liberal agenda. You’d best drop the ‘ Labour did it too ‘ fall back contingency remarks as Clark wins no awards from those of us opposed to neo liberalism . And BTW … if your tempted to equate communism with social democracy ?

                    Dont.

                    And by that I mean a return to a true social democracy with a Keynesian based economy. And that means to the likes of you – horror upon horrors – big government and regulations to hold seriously greedy bastards like you in check.

                    ‘ “Internationally respected”. You really are delusional, aren’t you? ‘

                    I think you will find there’s nothing ‘ delusional’ about Dirty Politics in New Zealand being covered globally by leading news outlets … perhaps the definition of ‘delusional ‘ would be far better served by the sort of political hero’s you choose that act like this :

                    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LMRclvUTRGE

                    • reason …
                      22 December 2016 at 12:01 pm

                      KDS is an excellent marker …………….. those who use this childish ‘your mental’ insult are either trolls … or members in the cult of key…… which means they are either dishonest …… or stupid.

                      Check out the posters who use it ………….. It’s a 100% accurate marker.

                    • Tophat …
                      22 December 2016 at 12:43 pm

                      Hi my name is Tophat and I am a recovering KDS sufferer…
                      It has been 17 days now since my last outburst of KDS.
                      Initially I was in denial even though I couldn’t even see a picture of Key in the media without getting my heckles up. Key’s voice alone would rile me into a lather and fofoo valves would burst throughout.
                      I thought I had suddenly sprung an interest in politics, but no it was just the burning hatred I hold for all sycophants and their supporters that had reared it’s ugly head.
                      Key has gone now though and I am able to relax as Natz will surely hand over the government to the rightful governors of our fair country, Labour.
                      Although I feel a little tremor when I read the ignorant shit that comes out of posters like alwyn, Bm, Fisiani and associates, I know that they are empty vessels who themselves must seek recovery for their personal obsessions in their own time.
                      I am confident that some day soon the likes of alwyn will learn to take the cock out of their mouth before they posts their BS.
                      Thank you for letting me share.

                  • Marcus Morris …
                    22 December 2016 at 5:48 pm

                    Wrong.

                    I suggest that you take a look at the following entry in Wikipedia

                    ” He is the only New Zealand member of the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists.”

                    and then look at some of the work that the ICIJ has done including the expose of the Panama Papers.

                    And yes, I believe that Nicky Hager is apolitical. “Seeds of Distrust” almost sank Labour. What he does do it seek out the truth and he does that pretty well. A book that everyone should read is “Other People’s Wars” which is as relevant to day as it was when it was first published.

                    As for Muttonbird’s assertion of Auckland reforms – I wonder where he lives. Possible Invercargill with a pseudonym like that- and best not to start on Education reform?

          • North 4.1.1.2.2
            21 December 2016 at 10:12 pm

            Bitter Butter On Toast Alwyn. Poor person Alwyn. Raison d’etre has fucked off. Leaving a babe so distraught and orphan-like…….not a jot of sympathy for Alwyn-Circus-Goer.

            • alwyn 4.1.1.2.2.1
              21 December 2016 at 10:23 pm

              Why it’s dopey again.
              When are you going to apologise for the lies you kept telling about me dopey?
              Come on, admit you are a lying SOB. You really can’t keep it up forever.

              • WILD KATIPO …
                21 December 2016 at 11:24 pm

                ‘ Dem bones, dem bones, dem dry bones,
                Dem bones, dem bones, dem dry bones,
                Dem bones, dem bones, dem dry bones,
                Now shake dem skeleton bones! ‘

                And that’s all that’s left of the National party now your lovely Mr Key up and left them in the lurch. Grief is a difficult thing,… and yes it does take time. But in time also, you’ll come to accept the fact, along with the inevitable decline National is just showing early signs of now.

                In 8 months time or less,… expect National to be polling consistently in the late 30’s.

                And don’t think Winston’s going to come to your rescue either,… hes already stated his bottom line for entering any agreement,… and as far as that goes?

                The same party that has indulged in collusion is the same one that will be wearing Pike River around its neck like an Albatross.

          • ScottGN 4.1.1.2.3
            22 December 2016 at 6:59 pm

            Jesus that’s shitty, even for you alwyn. Shearer’s going to work in The Sudan for fuck’s sake, at the request of the UN – not quite the same as buggering off to Hawaii.
            Anyway you want to talk about an unnecessary by-election? Lets talk about Jamie Lee-Ross’ wife who chucked a hissy fit and quit moments after getting elected because she didn’t get the plum council job she wanted.

            • alwyn 4.1.1.2.3.1
              22 December 2016 at 7:22 pm

              Well there really is a difference you know.
              Key is not resigning from Parliament and inflicting a by election on the taxpayer.
              I am willing to bet that half the MPs will be wandering off overseas during the break.
              Wasn’t Little supposed to have missed a couple of weeks of Parliament heading to Nepal or somewhere? Cancelled it at the last moment. Of course in his case the taxpayer would have been paying for the trip rather than the MP himself.

              As far as the lady you mention. I have never heard of her and know nothing about your supposed story.

        • b waghorn 4.1.1.3
          21 December 2016 at 8:05 pm

          henry went on to say the rest of the parties shouldn’t oppose labour either meaning no labour would get the seat with no election needed, and yes henry is potty but he had a nack of preempting nat decisions , a fluke ? i think not

        • mosa 4.1.1.4
          22 December 2016 at 10:15 am

          Quite right Anne.

    • fisiani 4.2
      21 December 2016 at 7:52 pm

      You are correct Anne. National internal polling shows Labour at 35% and Greens at
      12 % whilst National is at 44%. No one getting sleep in National over the summer.

      • Muttonbird 4.2.1
        21 December 2016 at 8:15 pm

        More people now think the country is heading in the wrong direction.

        It doesn’t matter that home-owners will party vote National and that they are happy because their assets are making them rich beyond their wildest dreams, because they are being swamped by people who have been left out in the cold. It’s a soft revolution of the current government’s own making.

        • Macro 4.2.1.1
          21 December 2016 at 10:44 pm

          Only half of homeowners (according to the Fizz) vote National, and as they only represent 60% of the population – and are declining in numbers as we speak – that’s just 30% vote for National, and steadily going out the back door.

  5. One Anonymous Bloke 5
    21 December 2016 at 6:33 pm

    After the last two Roy Morgans I wouldn’t be surprised if the next one has the Nats at 38%, or 58%, or any point in between.

    Bouncy doesn’t begin to describe it. How can Labour lose eight percent then gain five in the space of three polls? It’s ridiculous.

    I’m picking the B team will be worth minus five points, and now Roy Morgan says so, I’m clearly flat wrong.

  6. ianmac 6
    21 December 2016 at 6:38 pm

    The last Morgan Poll, with Labour at 23%, was quoted numerousl times by “pundits” so wonder if the same ones will quote a Morgan Labour 5% jump.
    Will they? Nah!

  7. ScottGN 7
    21 December 2016 at 6:48 pm

    Here’s the crux of it from Gary Morgan;

    “Looking towards next year’s election the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Issues research shows the issue of Housing – including Housing affordability/ Housing prices/ Homelessness/ Homeless is now the biggest problem facing New Zealand according to respondents – mentioned by 27% of New Zealanders in October. This problem is particularly acute in New Zealand’s largest city of Auckland – mentioned by 37% of respondents.

    “If new PM Bill English is to successfully contest next year’s New Zealand election and win a fourth term for the National Government he will need to come up with new policies in the area of Housing to convince New Zealand electors he deserves his own mandate as Prime Minister.”

    • Muttonbird 7.1
      21 December 2016 at 7:00 pm

      Yet fisiani and other housing unaffordability and poverty deniers state that everyone is happy in Auckland and they will all party vote National because they are all getting rich off their assets.

      This report seems to suggest otherwise. fisiani is either lying or out of touch with issues facing Aucklanders. Probably both.

      National can’t/won’t address these issues and increasing numbers of Aucklanders are beginning to realise this.

      • WILD KATIPO 7.1.1
        21 December 2016 at 10:34 pm

        And that’s the problem with people like fizpop, … they are victims of their own ideology – one that has no answer except fudging the facts and stats – which inevitably leads to them having to make stuff up or worse yet – outright lie about issues.

        And lying seems to be a true hallmark of the far right wing neo liberal.

  8. Pat 8
    21 December 2016 at 7:04 pm

    to paraphrase “spud” Bolger…bugger the polls

  9. fisiani 9
    21 December 2016 at 7:55 pm

    All the people with houses are voters. Their assets have risen in value. New Zealand is an affluent country and the vast majority are happy.

    • Muttonbird 9.1
      21 December 2016 at 8:03 pm

      Their numbers are dropping and National government policy has driven this drop.

      National are contributing to their own demise.

    • Macro 9.2
      21 December 2016 at 8:08 pm

      Only around 60% of nzers now “own” a home, and that is the lowest percentage of the population in years. Many of the ones who are in debt to a bank however, are now up so indebted that any significant rise in interest rates could see them in jeapody.

    • North 9.3
      21 December 2016 at 10:17 pm

      End of FusedAnus story. I am happy therefore everyone is happy.

    • WILD KATIPO 9.4
      21 December 2016 at 10:40 pm

      fizpop seems to not know the first laws of physics and shares…

      ‘ What goes up , must come down’ .

      And just how do you think these ‘ voters’ will feel when they are saddled with mortgages worth far more than the houses worth , fizpop?

      Expect a massive and bitter turning away from the National party in droves when the world economy takes a hit – which is predicted to be sooner rather than later according to an article by Liam Dann in the NZ Herald today.

      • ropata 9.4.1
        22 December 2016 at 4:03 am

        All the housing bubble needs is a slight turn in interest rates, artificially suppressed for 8 years now post GFC. Whats the bet that Bling will bow down to the bankers demands for a pound of flesh, and Kiwi home “owners” will have to pay

    • michelle 9.5
      22 December 2016 at 12:55 pm

      the vast majority are happy how do you know fisiani or did you just make it up

  10. The Chairman 10
    21 December 2016 at 9:05 pm

    “New Zealand First would be the kingmakers if this poll is correct”

    That will be interesting, Winston says Pike River re-entry is a bottom line to any election deals.

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/87550741/winston-peters-says-pike-river-reentry-is-bottom-line-to-election-deals

    • fisiani 10.1
      21 December 2016 at 9:58 pm

      Winston should go in and then it should be sealed.

      • North 10.1.1
        21 December 2016 at 10:29 pm

        Thank you for acknowledging the fact of shit running down your legs Fisiani……..which is exactly what you did with your comment @ 10.1 re the man I will vote for in Northland electorate 2017. Which man will win. Handsomely.

        Cue your shrieking friend Alwyn with bitter, near defamatory shit about Winnie being a soak.

        Like the old fulla on “Dads’ Army” always said……..”They do not like it up ’em !”

      • WILD KATIPO 10.1.2
        21 December 2016 at 10:48 pm

        Regarding Pike River… eminent world mining experts plans rejected by Bill English and Solid Energy .

        The reports

        The plan to re-enter the mine (pdf)
        Rowland and Moreby review (pdf)
        Robinson review (pdf)

        NEWSFLASH !!!

        Nats fear whats down in the mine and use their lackeys Solid Energy to be the bovver boys to carry out the hit and continue the plausible denial strategy !!!!

      • Paul 10.1.3
        22 December 2016 at 12:16 pm

        What an unpleasant comment.
        From an unpleasant troll.

    • Sam C 10.2
      22 December 2016 at 6:18 am

      Ha! And you really think that will be Winnie’s position at General Election time with the baubles of power glittering?

      • BM 10.2.1
        22 December 2016 at 7:24 am

        Yeah, he’s really channelling Trump at the moment.

      • The Chairman 10.2.2
        22 December 2016 at 8:19 am

        @ Sam C

        We’re only several months out from the election now, therefore he’d be mad to make such a bottom line if he wasn’t serious about it.

        • Sam C 10.2.2.1
          22 December 2016 at 8:27 am

          “He’d be mad”… there’s your answer right there.

          Look at you all, lining up to cuddle up with that odious, racist little man.

          • WILD KATIPO 10.2.2.1.1
            22 December 2016 at 8:44 am

            Racist ?… racist?…

            Can the Kiwi buy property in China?

            You know the way you far right wing neo liberals carry on ,… the new definition in New Zealand today is ‘ Work Slaves ‘ and ‘ Tenant Slaves’ …Slaves in our own land…

            And when those interest rates go up just a teensy weensy little bit and these so – called ‘ National voters’ find they are now paying more in mortgage repayments than the house and land is worth …. guess who’s going to cop the blame for deliberately letting it get that way…

            So,… since you believe in neo liberalism and hence a form of servitude and Work / Tenant slavery … here’s an apt flag for you to fly .

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=liaQJNR4Y0Y

          • The Chairman 10.2.2.1.2
            22 December 2016 at 8:47 am

            I don’t believe he’s mad or racist.

            If National want the baubles of power and require to cuddle up to him, it seems they are going to have to swallow some big rats.

      • WILD KATIPO 10.2.3
        22 December 2016 at 9:14 am

        ‘ Ha! And you really think that will be Winnie’s position at General Election time with the baubles of power glittering? ‘

        Nah mate – Winnies just looked at the trends and knows a sure fire thing when he sees one.

        • Whispering Kate 10.2.3.1
          22 December 2016 at 11:05 am

          I am with you Wild Katipo, I don’t think Winnie would go back on his word for fear of voter backlash. There are a lot of people out there who vote for Winnie or may be considering it, who want that mine opened to find out what went wrong down there, for future lives to be saved it has to be done. Personally I think this is a subtle way for Winnie to steer voters without actually declaring his intentions. National will not open up that mine for fear of what will be discovered.

          Winnie has not had a rosy relationship with National in the past and Labour/Greens will offer him enough baubles and maybe Foreign Minister, where he may prefer to be wining and dining on the big stage, in gratitude if he goes into coalition with them.

          • Sam C 10.2.3.1.1
            22 December 2016 at 11:44 am

            yes, because Winnie has a really rosy relationship with the Greens, doesn’t he?

            Winnie hated Key. Now Key has gone, there is nothing stopping him getting back in to bed with National.

            Take the blinkers off, Whispering Kate.

            • Cinny 10.2.3.1.1.1
              22 December 2016 at 12:36 pm

              Sam do you watch parliament? Maybe you need to take your blinkers off?

              It appears that some Tories are wanting Winny to side with Nats, maybe because they are concerned about the coming election and that type of thinking gives them some sort of comfort.

            • Robert Guyton 10.2.3.1.1.2
              22 December 2016 at 12:46 pm

              “Winnie hated Key…” – while Sam C adored Key. Now, Sam C hopes that Winnie will go with National, Sam C’s crew!
              It couldn’t get any more twisted!

            • Whispering Kate 10.2.3.1.1.3
              22 December 2016 at 8:33 pm

              Sam C Winnie has been a bit more accommodating with the Greens lately, National are looking tired with the same old useless heaps in Cabinet. Not only useless but nasty buggers with it. Winnie may not want to have his legacy known for associating with a Government that is neglectful of the provinces, disregards the vulnerable and frankly are not fit for purpose. Key, for once I am in agreement, got out because even he thought his legacy would be munted, not for worthy reasons, but for his own selfish reasons.

              Time will tell but Winnie does not have good history with National and unfortunately he has fallen out with Labour in the past, that’s Winnie and that’s not going to change, but the one big thing that stands in his way – he will want a decent legacy for the history books and National will not give that to him. I have no need for blinkers, my eyesight is okay and my antennae is tuned just fine.

          • David C 10.2.3.1.2
            22 December 2016 at 12:30 pm

            Winnie wont be there in 2020 to see the backlash.
            All he wants is power and he will do and say anything to get it.

          • Marcus Morris 10.2.3.1.3
            22 December 2016 at 6:11 pm

            Winnie is a wily old fox who will do what is good for Winnie. Most on the Left thought he would go with Labour in 1996 and there was considerable dismay and accusations of duplicity when he finally went with the Nats.

            Remember his great “denial” 2008 – how many votes did that cost Labour.
            Winnie can be more than economical with the truth when it suits him.

            • WILD KATIPO 10.2.3.1.3.1
              22 December 2016 at 10:04 pm

              Hes made a few blunders for sure ,… but as for going with National he hoped he could work within the system of neo liberalism and curb some of its excesses.

              The fact he hated Jenny Shipley and Richardson was evident. He did manage to curb ( and in the process created powerful adversaries ) some of those excesses,… however to this very day … he remains one of the ONLY political voices in this country who OPENLY names and shames neo liberalism on a regular basis.

              It will be a sad day when he retires.

  11. GregJ 11
    21 December 2016 at 11:16 pm

    What I can’t believe is how Roy Morgan makes any money from this shit. Who would pay them to do any sort of polling?

    Surely 2016 has shown, with Brexit and the US elections, that the traditional polling paradigm has shifted – whether it is because we are now in a post-truth world or cynicism and distrust is so high that people will happily bullshit pollsters, or that in a complex multi-media world polling needs to become more sophisticated and wide-ranging, or whatever…

    I generally don’t comment on polling posts as I’ve long regard this sort of opinion polling a waste of time – a lazy way for media organisations to generate faux news stories and pretend they are actually engaging in proper political analysis. A tool of political propagandists and spin doctors.

    A plague on all their houses…bah, humbug. 😡

  12. swordfish 12
    22 December 2016 at 7:51 am

    .
    2014 Election vs Latest (Dec 2016) Roy Morgan

    L+G = Lab + Green
    NZF = New Zealand First
    Oppo = Opposition bloc
    Nat = National
    N/L+G = Nat’s percentage point lead over L+G
    Govt = Government Bloc
    Right = Govt + Cons
    O/G = Oppo lead over Govt = bold / vice versa = standard typeface
    .
    (numbers rounded for simplicity)
    .
    .

    …….L+G……NZF……Oppo……Nat……N/L+G……Govt……Right……O/G
    .

    2014 Election
    …….36………..9………..46………..47……….11…………49……….53……….3
    .

    Latest (Dec 2016) Roy Morgan

    …….43……….8………….51………..45………..2………….47……….48……….4
    .

    Diff

    …….+ 7……..- 1…………+ 5………- 2………..- 9………..- 2………..- 5………- 7

    • David C 12.1
      22 December 2016 at 12:33 pm

      If you take into account all the wasted votes in ’14 because of KDC it looks even worse for Nat too.

      • WILD KATIPO 12.1.1
        22 December 2016 at 10:07 pm

        If you take into account the bland face of far right wing neo liberalism aka Bill ‘Double Dipper’ English and his clown deputy Paula ‘ Pullyer Benefit ‘ Bennett that also explains the trends.

        Nationals sunk.

  13. Adrian 13
    22 December 2016 at 12:52 pm

    In our short little road in a gorgeous Marlborough rural slice of heaven two property sales have fallen through in the last few weeks, the Auckland buyers couldn’t,t sell their houses.
    There’s one of your reasons for JK abandoning ship, he knows when to sell or bail, before he gets blamed for it.
    I,m sure they are nice people but can’t help thinking we’ve dodged a couple of bullets.
    ( oh, you cynical bastard)

  14. Marcus Morris 14
    22 December 2016 at 6:06 pm

    Out of interest, and it may be that most posters here are two young to remember it, but there is a precedent for the current situation. Keith Holyoake as he was at the time) resigned “quietly” in early 1972 to give his natural successor “Gentleman” Jack Marshall a clear run to the November election. The result was a landslide victory to Labour. Will hispory be repeated?
    There are two essential differences. Labour was then led by the charismatic Norm Kirk (Andrew Little is not really in the same league) and Marshall was constantly being undermined by one Robert Muldoon (as he was at the time). Will the rejected Judith Collins play a similar role.

    Time will tell.

    • swordfish 14.1
      22 December 2016 at 8:26 pm

      Interesting comparison.

      Muldoon was far more popular than Collins, though. When polls started asking leadership preference questions in 1969 (similar to today’s Preferred PM measure) … Finance Minister Muldoon was already ahead of everyone else – Holyoake, Marshall and Kirk – even though he was still two leadership changes away from toppling Gentleman Jack.

      Hence, dear old Rob’s words carried much greater force with a crucial section of Nat supporters and swing voters than Crusher’s ever would (even though Collins does have a niche constituency within the Blue Team). Then, again, voters aren’t overly keen on any signs of disunity in a Party, and – like Rob – Crusher does have an intrinsic personal interest in quietly sabotaging the Nats chances, so ….

      Kirk was interesting in that he certainly did have charismatic tendencies (and shone in debates), but at the same time was quietly spoken. He wasn’t an over the top psuedo-Blokeish Boofhead (with David Brent tendencies) like Key. A much more serious politician (not that Key’s underlying agenda was necessarily casual or unfocussed, mind you).

      And, funnily enough, despite Labour’s landslide in 72, Kirk remained on pretty low leader preference numbers (similar to Little’s) over the 3 year run-up, even during the Election campaign itself (which he dominated). Much has been made by certain historians of Kirk’s post-69 “make-over” (lost weight, let his hair grow, bought several new suits, turned from “fat” into “large and distinguished”, with a shock of curly silver hair) but, in fact, none of that seemed to impact on his low popularity numbers in 1969-72 opinion polls.

      Difference is though: tribal voting was significantly greater in those days and leadership traits played a lesser (though by no means insubstantial) role. Strong partisan alignment has been declining since the 1960s – not only in New Zealand but throughout western liberal democracies. More and more non-aligned and (in particular) softly-aligned voters now – in tandem with an obvious Presidentialisation of politics (the latter partly the consequence of the former). A new era of swing voters and valence issues.

      So, in contrast to Kirk in 72, Little can’t rely on the same large band of fiercely loyal Labour voters to see him through (the intense fallout from Rogernomics, of course, greatly exacerbated this long-term process of de-alignment already underway for Labour).

      • Ethica 14.1.1
        22 December 2016 at 8:36 pm

        But Muldoon’s popularity soon dived. Muldoon got fewer votes than Labour in 1978 and 81 but kept power with gerrymandered rural electorates. The quietly spoken, highly ethical Rowling would have won the 1978 election under MMP.

        • swordfish 14.1.1.1
          22 December 2016 at 9:26 pm

          Muldoon was very much a polariser. In fact, a net negative polariser. Certainly attracted many voters (“Rob’s Mob”) purely because of his perceived leadership qualities but, at the same time, actually managed to Repel even more.

          And his personal support levels (even in the early days when he was easily the most popular leader in the Country) were never close to Helen Clark’s or John Key’s ratings at their apex. But then the same goes for all Party Leaders and PMs since regular polling began. Clark and Key have dominated in a way that no one else (including Lange) over the last 50 years ever could.

          Interestingly, (and this dovetails with your argument) although Rowling had a reputation for supposedly being “weak” and always suffered lower Preferred PM numbers than Muldoon, more detailed polling suggested the net effect on the vote of attitudes towards the two leaders at the 1975, 78 and 81 Elections actually showed a healthy advantage for Labour. Rowling didn’t polarise, Muldoon did.

          Hence, as paradoxical as it may sound, High Preferred PM-polling Muldoon actually managed to reduce his party’s winning margin in all three elections (it’s a bit of a shock to think that National’s monumental landslide in 75 would have been even greater if it wasn’t for Muldoon’s negative effect on a portion of swing voters).

          Funnily enough, Key stands out because he managed to squander those exceedingly high Favourability ratings in the polls, ending up – over the last year or so – in the same ball park as Muldoon = a polariser who repels as many as he attracts.

          Best not to tell Fisi, though. Risks cognitive dissonance.

  15. Marcus Morris 15
    22 December 2016 at 9:03 pm

    Agree with all you say Swordfish and Ethica. Labour’s mantra in ’72 was “Time for a change” and it worked. You are right of course, under MMP, Rowling would have beaten Muldoon in 1978 and again in 1981 albeit marginally. ’81 was when Social Credit got 21% of the vote but only one seat. I think that this was about the time the country really started talking about the need for some kind of proportional representation. FPTP was seen to be demonstrably unfair. It took another fifteen years to make the change and we live in a very different world now.

  16. The PInk Postman 16
    23 December 2016 at 4:09 pm

    For the past 8 years the Nat’s have always opened their speeches with
    ‘”Under this John Key government” now he has gone we are going to be ear bashed with Bennett’s sob story regarding the poor old solo-mum nonsense. Would be interested to know how she managed to have full time University attendance as a solo mum I wonder how many real solo-mums managed to do that?

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    Mariupol, on the Azov Sea coast, was one of the first cities to suffer almost complete destruction after the start of the Ukraine War started in late February 2022. We remember the scenes of absolute destruction of the houses and city structures. The deaths of innocent civilians – many of ...
    Open ParachuteBy Ken
    1 day ago

  • Babies and benefits – no good news
    Lindsay Mitchell writes – Ten years ago, I wrote the following in a Listener column: Every year around one in five new-born babies will be reliant on their caregivers benefit by Christmas. This pattern has persisted from at least 1993. For Maori the number jumps to over one in three.  ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    1 day ago

  • Should the RBNZ be looking through climate inflation?
    Climate change is expected to generate more and more extreme events, delivering a sort of structural shock to inflation that central banks will have to react to as if they were short-term cyclical issues. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāMy pick of the six newsey things to know from Aotearoa’s ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 day ago

  • Bernard's pick 'n' mix of the news links
    The top six news links I’ve seen elsewhere in the last 24 hours, as of 9:16 am on Thursday, April 18 are:Housing: Tauranga residents living in boats, vans RNZ Checkpoint Louise TernouthHousing: Waikato councillor says wastewater plant issues could hold up Sleepyhead building a massive company town Waikato Times Stephen ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 day ago

  • Gordon Campbell on the public sector carnage, and misogyny as terrorism
    It’s a simple deal. We pay taxes in order to finance the social services we want and need. The carnage now occurring across the public sector though, is breaking that contract. Over 3,000 jobs have been lost so far. Many are in crucial areas like Education where the impact of ...
    Gordon CampbellBy lyndon
    1 day ago

  • Meeting the Master Baiters
    Hi,A friend had their 40th over the weekend and decided to theme it after Curb Your Enthusiasm fashion icon Susie Greene. Captured in my tiny kitchen before I left the house, I ending up evoking a mix of old lesbian and Hillary Clinton — both unintentional.Me vs Hillary ClintonIf you’re ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    1 day ago

  • How extreme was the Earth's temperature in 2023
    This is a re-post from Andrew Dessler at the Climate Brink blog In 2023, the Earth reached temperature levels unprecedented in modern times. Given that, it’s reasonable to ask: What’s going on? There’s been lots of discussions by scientists about whether this is just the normal progression of global warming or if something ...
    Skeptical Science
    1 day ago

  • Backbone, revisited
    The schools are on holiday and the sun is shining in the seaside village and all day long I have been seeing bunches of bikes; Mums, Dads, teens and toddlers chattering, laughing, happy, having a bloody great time together. Cheers, AT, for the bits of lane you’ve added lately around the ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    2 days ago

  • Ministers are not above the law
    Today in our National-led authoritarian nightmare: Shane Jones thinks Ministers should be above the law: New Zealand First MP Shane Jones is accusing the Waitangi Tribunal of over-stepping its mandate by subpoenaing a minister for its urgent hearing on the Oranga Tamariki claim. The tribunal is looking into the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago

  • What’s the outfit you can hear going down the gurgler? Probably it’s David Parker’s Oceans Sec...
    Buzz from the Beehive Point  of Order first heard of the Oceans Secretariat in June 2021, when David Parker (remember him?) announced a multi-agency approach to protecting New Zealand’s marine ecosystems and fisheries. Parker (holding the Environment, and Oceans and Fisheries portfolios) broke the news at the annual Forest & ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    2 days ago

  • Will politicians let democracy die in the darkness?
    Bryce Edwards writes  – Politicians across the political spectrum are implicated in the New Zealand media’s failing health. Either through neglect or incompetent interventions, successive governments have failed to regulate, foster, and allow a healthy Fourth Estate that can adequately hold politicians and the powerful to account. ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    2 days ago

  • Matt Doocey doubles down on trans “healthcare”
    Citizen Science writes –  Last week saw two significant developments in the debate over the treatment of trans-identifying children and young people – the release in Britain of the final report of Dr Hilary Cass’s review into gender healthcare, and here in New Zealand, the news that the ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    2 days ago

  • A TikTok Prime Minister.
    One night while sleeping in my bed I had a beautiful dreamThat all the people of the world got together on the same wavelengthAnd began helping one anotherNow in this dream, universal love was the theme of the dayPeace and understanding and it happened this wayAfter such an eventful day ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    2 days ago

  • Texas Lessons
    This is a guest post by Oscar Simms who is a housing activist, volunteer for the Coalition for More Homes, and was the Labour Party candidate for Auckland Central at the last election. ...
    Greater AucklandBy Guest Post
    2 days ago

  • Bernard's pick 'n' mix of the news links at 6:06 am
    The top six news links I’ve seen elsewhere in the last 24 hours as of 6:06 am on Wednesday, April 17 are:Must read: Secrecy shrouds which projects might be fast-tracked RNZ Farah HancockScoop: Revealed: Luxon has seven staffers working on social media content - partly paid for by taxpayer Newshub ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    2 days ago

  • Fighting poverty on the holiday highway
    Turning what Labour called the “holiday highway” into a four-lane expressway from Auckland to Whangarei could bring at least an economic benefit of nearly two billion a year for Northland each year. And it could help bring an end to poverty in one of New Zealand’s most deprived regions. The ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    2 days ago

  • Bernard's six-stack of substacks at 6:26 pm
    Tonight’s six-stack includes: launching his substack with a bunch of his previous documentaries, including this 1992 interview with Dame Whina Cooper. and here crew give climate activists plenty to do, including this call to submit against the Fast Track Approvals bill. writes brilliantly here on his substack ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago

  • At a glance – Is the science settled?
    On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
    Skeptical Science
    3 days ago

  • Apposite Quotations.
    How Long Is Long Enough? Gaza under Israeli bombardment, July 2014. This posting is exclusive to Bowalley Road. ...
    Bowalley Road
    3 days ago

  • What’s a life worth now?
    You're in the mall when you hear it: some kind of popping sound in the distance, kids with fireworks, maybe. But then a moment of eerie stillness is followed by more of the fireworks sound and there’s also screaming and shrieking and now here come people running for their lives.Does ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    3 days ago

  • Howling at the Moon
    Karl du Fresne writes –  There’s a crisis in the news media and the media are blaming it on everyone except themselves. Culpability is being deflected elsewhere – mainly to the hapless Minister of Communications, Melissa Lee, and the big social media platforms that are accused of hoovering ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago

  • Newshub is Dead.
    I don’t normally send out two newsletters in a day but I figured I’d say something about… the news. If two newsletters is a bit much then maybe just skip one, I don’t want to overload people. Alternatively if you’d be interested in sometimes receiving multiple, smaller updates from me, ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    3 days ago

  • Seymour is chuffed about cutting early-learning red tape – but we hear, too, that Jones has loose...
    Buzz from the Beehive David Seymour and Winston Peters today signalled that at least two ministers of the Crown might be in Wellington today. Seymour (as Associate Minister of Education) announced the removal of more red tape, this time to make it easier for new early learning services to be ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    3 days ago

  • Bryce Edwards: Will politicians let democracy die in the darkness?
    Politicians across the political spectrum are implicated in the New Zealand media’s failing health. Either through neglect or incompetent interventions, successive governments have failed to regulate, foster, and allow a healthy Fourth Estate that can adequately hold politicians and the powerful to account. Our political system is suffering from the ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    3 days ago

  • Was Hawkesby entirely wrong?
    David Farrar  writes –  The Broadcasting Standards Authority ruled: Comments by radio host Kate Hawkesby suggesting Māori and Pacific patients were being prioritised for surgery due to their ethnicity were misleading and discriminatory, the Broadcasting Standards Authority has found. It is a fact such patients are prioritised. ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago

  • PRC shadow looms as the Solomons head for election
    PRC and its proxies in Solomons have been preparing for these elections for a long time. A lot of money, effort and intelligence have gone into ensuring an outcome that won’t compromise Beijing’s plans. Cleo Paskall writes – On April 17th the Solomon Islands, a country of ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago

  • Climate Change: Criminal ecocide
    We are in the middle of a climate crisis. Last year was (again) the hottest year on record. NOAA has just announced another global coral bleaching event. Floods are threatening UK food security. So naturally, Shane Jones wants to make it easier to mine coal: Resources Minister Shane Jones ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago

  • Is saving one minute of a politician's time worth nearly $1 billion?
    Is speeding up the trip to and from Wellington airport by 12 minutes worth spending up more than $10 billion? Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The six news items that stood out to me in the last day to 8:26 am today are:The Lead: Transport Minister Simeon Brown announced ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago

  • Long Tunnel or Long Con?
    Yesterday it was revealed that Transport Minister had asked Waka Kotahi to look at the options for a long tunnel through Wellington. State Highway 1 (SH1) through Wellington City is heavily congested at peak times and while planning continues on the duplicate Mt Victoria Tunnel and Basin Reserve project, the ...
    Greater AucklandBy Matt L
    3 days ago

  • Smoke And Mirrors.
    You're a fraud, and you know itBut it's too good to throw it all awayAnyone would do the sameYou've got 'em goingAnd you're careful not to show itSometimes you even fool yourself a bitIt's like magicBut it's always been a smoke and mirrors gameAnyone would do the sameForty six billion ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    3 days ago

  • What is Mexico doing about climate change?
    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections The June general election in Mexico could mark a turning point in ensuring that the country’s climate policies better reflect the desire of its citizens to address the climate crisis, with both leading presidential candidates expressing support for renewable energy. Mexico is the ...
    Skeptical Science
    3 days ago

  • State of humanity, 2024
    2024, it feels, keeps presenting us with ever more challenges, ever more dismay.Do you give up yet? It seems to ask.No? How about this? Or this?How about this?When I say 2024 I really mean the state of humanity in 2024.Saturday night, we watched Civil War because that is one terrifying cliff we've ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    4 days ago

  • Govt’s Wellington tunnel vision aims to ease the way to the airport (but zealous promoters of cycl...
    Buzz from the Beehive A pet project and governmental tunnel vision jump out from the latest batch of ministerial announcements. The government is keen to assure us of its concern for the wellbeing of our pets. It will be introducing pet bonds in a change to the Residential Tenancies Act ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    4 days ago

  • The case for cultural connectedness
    A recent report generated from a Growing Up in New Zealand (GUiNZ) survey of 1,224 rangatahi Māori aged 11-12 found: Cultural connectedness was associated with fewer depression symptoms, anxiety symptoms and better quality of life. That sounds cut and dry. But further into the report the following appears: Cultural connectedness is ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago

  • Useful context on public sector job cuts
    David Farrar writes –    The Herald reports: From the gory details of job-cuts news, you’d think the public service was being eviscerated.   While the media’s view of the cuts is incomplete, it’s also true that departments have been leaking the particulars faster than a Wellington ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago

  • Gordon Campbell On When Racism Comes Disguised As Anti-racism
    Remember the good old days, back when New Zealand had a PM who could think and speak calmly and intelligently in whole sentences without blustering? Even while Iran’s drones and missiles were still being launched, Helen Clark was live on TVNZ expertly summing up the latest crisis in the Middle ...
    Gordon CampbellBy lyndon
    4 days ago

  • Govt ignored economic analysis of smokefree reversal
    Costello did not pass on analysis of the benefits of the smokefree reforms to Cabinet, emphasising instead the extra tax revenues of repealing them. Photo: Hagen Hopkins, Getty Images TL;DR: The six news items that stood out to me at 7:26 am today are:The Lead: Casey Costello never passed on ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago

  • True Blue.
    True loveYou're the one I'm dreaming ofYour heart fits me like a gloveAnd I'm gonna be true blueBaby, I love youI’ve written about the job cuts in our news media last week. The impact on individuals, and the loss to Aotearoa of voices covering our news from different angles.That by ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago

  • Who is running New Zealand’s foreign policy?
    While commentators, including former Prime Minister Helen Clark, are noting a subtle shift in New Zealand’s foreign policy, which now places more emphasis on the United States, many have missed a key element of the shift. What National said before the election is not what the government is doing now. ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    4 days ago

  • 2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #15
    A listing of 31 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, April 7, 2024 thru Sat, April 13, 2024. Story of the week Our story of the week is about adults in the room setting terms and conditions of ...
    Skeptical Science
    5 days ago

  • Feline Friends and Fragile Fauna The Complexities of Cats in New Zealand’s Conservation Efforts

    Cats, with their independent spirit and beguiling purrs, have captured the hearts of humans for millennia. In New Zealand, felines are no exception, boasting the highest national cat ownership rate globally [definition cat nz cat foundation]. An estimated 1.134 million pet cats grace Kiwi households, compared to 683,000 dogs ...

    Gareth’s WorldBy admin
    5 days ago

  • Or is that just they want us to think?
    Nice guy, that Peter Williams. Amiable, a calm air of no-nonsense capability, a winning smile. Everything you look for in a TV presenter and newsreader.I used to see him sometimes when I went to TVNZ to be a talking head or a panellist and we would yarn. Nice guy, that ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    5 days ago

  • Fact Brief – Did global warming stop in 1998?
    Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. This fact brief was written by Sue Bin Park in collaboration with members from our Skeptical Science team. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline. Did global warming stop in ...
    Skeptical Science
    6 days ago

  • Arguing over a moot point.
    I have been following recent debates in the corporate and social media about whether it is a good idea for NZ to join what is known as “AUKUS Pillar Two.” AUKUS is the Australian-UK-US nuclear submarine building agreement in which … Continue reading → ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    6 days ago

  • No Longer Trusted: Ageing Boomers, Laurie & Les, Talk Politics.
    Turning Point: “What has turned me away from the mainstream news media is the very strong message that its been sending out for the last few years.” “And what message might that be?” “That the people who own it, the people who run it, and the people who provide its content, really don’t ...
    Bowalley Road
    6 days ago

  • Mortgage rates at 10% anyone?
    No – nothing about that in PM Luxon’s nine-point plan to improve the lives of New Zealanders. But beyond our shores Jamie Dimon, the long-serving head of global bank J.P. Morgan Chase, reckons that the chances of a goldilocks soft landing for the economy are “a lot lower” than the ...
    Point of OrderBy xtrdnry
    6 days ago

  • Education Minister heads to major teaching summit in Singapore
    Education Minister Erica Stanford will lead the New Zealand delegation at the 2024 International Summit on the Teaching Profession (ISTP) held in Singapore. The delegation includes representatives from the Post Primary Teachers’ Association (PPTA) Te Wehengarua and the New Zealand Educational Institute (NZEI) Te Riu Roa.  The summit is co-hosted ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 hours ago

  • Value of stopbank project proven during cyclone
    A stopbank upgrade project in Tairawhiti partly funded by the Government has increased flood resilience for around 7000ha of residential and horticultural land so far, Regional Development Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones today attended a dawn service in Gisborne to mark the end of the first stage of the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 hours ago

  • Anzac commemorations, Türkiye relationship focus of visit
    Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters will represent the Government at Anzac Day commemorations on the Gallipoli Peninsula next week and engage with senior representatives of the Turkish government in Istanbul.    “The Gallipoli campaign is a defining event in our history. It will be a privilege to share the occasion ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 hours ago

  • Minister to Europe for OECD meeting, Anzac Day
    Science, Innovation and Technology and Defence Minister Judith Collins will next week attend the OECD Science and Technology Ministerial conference in Paris and Anzac Day commemorations in Belgium. “Science, innovation and technology have a major role to play in rebuilding our economy and achieving better health, environmental and social outcomes ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 hours ago

  • Comprehensive Partnership the goal for NZ and the Philippines
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with the President of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr.  The Prime Minister was accompanied by MP Paulo Garcia, the first Filipino to be elected to a legislature outside the Philippines. During today’s meeting, Prime Minister Luxon and President Marcos Jr discussed opportunities to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    16 hours ago

  • Government commits $20m to Westport flood protection
    The Government has announced that $20 million in funding will be made available to Westport to fund much needed flood protection around the town. This measure will significantly improve the resilience of the community, says Local Government Minister Simeon Brown. “The Westport community has already been allocated almost $3 million ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    21 hours ago

  • Taupō takes pole position
    The Government is proud to support the first ever Repco Supercars Championship event in Taupō as up to 70,000 motorsport fans attend the Taupō International Motorsport Park this weekend, says Economic Development Minister Melissa Lee. “Anticipation for the ITM Taupō Super400 is huge, with tickets and accommodation selling out weeks ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    22 hours ago

  • Cost of living support for low-income homeowners
    Local Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced an increase to the Rates Rebate Scheme, putting money back into the pockets of low-income homeowners.  “The coalition Government is committed to bringing down the cost of living for New Zealanders. That includes targeted support for those Kiwis who are doing things tough, such ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago

  • Government backing mussel spat project
    The Coalition Government is investing in a project to boost survival rates of New Zealand mussels and grow the industry, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones has announced. “This project seeks to increase the resilience of our mussels and significantly boost the sector’s productivity,” Mr Jones says. “The project - ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago

  • Government focused on getting people into work
    Benefit figures released today underscore the importance of the Government’s plan to rebuild the economy and have 50,000 fewer people on Jobseeker Support, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “Benefit numbers are still significantly higher than when National was last in government, when there was about 70,000 fewer ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago

  • Clean energy key driver to reducing emissions
    The Government’s commitment to doubling New Zealand’s renewable energy capacity is backed by new data showing that clean energy has helped the country reach its lowest annual gross emissions since 1999, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. New Zealand’s latest Greenhouse Gas Inventory (1990-2022) published today, shows gross emissions fell ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago

  • Earthquake-prone buildings review brought forward
    The Government is bringing the earthquake-prone building review forward, with work to start immediately, and extending the deadline for remediations by four years, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “Our Government is focused on rebuilding the economy. A key part of our plan is to cut red tape that ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago

  • Thailand and NZ to agree to Strategic Partnership
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and his Thai counterpart, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, have today agreed that New Zealand and the Kingdom of Thailand will upgrade the bilateral relationship to a Strategic Partnership by 2026. “New Zealand and Thailand have a lot to offer each other. We have a strong mutual desire to build ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • Government consults on extending coastal permits for ports
    RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop and Transport Minister Simeon Brown have today announced the Coalition Government’s intention to extend port coastal permits for a further 20 years, providing port operators with certainty to continue their operations. “The introduction of the Resource Management Act in 1991 required ports to obtain coastal ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • Inflation coming down, but more work to do
    Today’s announcement that inflation is down to 4 per cent is encouraging news for Kiwis, but there is more work to be done - underlining the importance of the Government’s plan to get the economy back on track, acting Finance Minister Chris Bishop says. “Inflation is now at 4 per ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • School attendance restored as a priority in health advice
    Refreshed health guidance released today will help parents and schools make informed decisions about whether their child needs to be in school, addressing one of the key issues affecting school attendance, says Associate Education Minister David Seymour. In recent years, consistently across all school terms, short-term illness or medical reasons ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • Unnecessary bureaucracy cut in oceans sector
    Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones is streamlining high-level oceans management while maintaining a focus on supporting the sector’s role in the export-led recovery of the economy. “I am working to realise the untapped potential of our fishing and aquaculture sector. To achieve that we need to be smarter with ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • Patterson promoting NZ’s wool sector at International Congress
    Associate Agriculture Minister Mark Patterson is speaking at the International Wool Textile Organisation Congress in Adelaide, promoting New Zealand wool, and outlining the coalition Government’s support for the revitalisation the sector.    "New Zealand’s wool exports reached $400 million in the year to 30 June 2023, and the coalition Government ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • Removing red tape to help early learners thrive
    The Government is making legislative changes to make it easier for new early learning services to be established, and for existing services to operate, Associate Education Minister David Seymour says. The changes involve repealing the network approval provisions that apply when someone wants to establish a new early learning service, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • RMA changes to cut coal mining consent red tape
    Changes to the Resource Management Act will align consenting for coal mining to other forms of mining to reduce barriers that are holding back economic development, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “The inconsistent treatment of coal mining compared with other extractive activities is burdensome red tape that fails to acknowledge ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • McClay reaffirms strong NZ-China trade relationship
    Trade, Agriculture and Forestry Minister Todd McClay has concluded productive discussions with ministerial counterparts in Beijing today, in support of the New Zealand-China trade and economic relationship. “My meeting with Commerce Minister Wang Wentao reaffirmed the complementary nature of the bilateral trade relationship, with our Free Trade Agreement at its ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • Prime Minister Luxon acknowledges legacy of Singapore Prime Minister Lee
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon today paid tribute to Singapore’s outgoing Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong.   Meeting in Singapore today immediately before Prime Minister Lee announced he was stepping down, Prime Minister Luxon warmly acknowledged his counterpart’s almost twenty years as leader, and the enduring legacy he has left for Singapore and South East ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • PMs Luxon and Lee deepen Singapore-NZ ties
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong. While in Singapore as part of his visit to South East Asia this week, Prime Minister Luxon also met with Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam and will meet with Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong.  During today’s meeting, Prime Minister Luxon ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • Antarctica New Zealand Board appointments
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has made further appointments to the Board of Antarctica New Zealand as part of a continued effort to ensure the Scott Base Redevelopment project is delivered in a cost-effective and efficient manner.  The Minister has appointed Neville Harris as a new member of the Board. Mr ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • Finance Minister travels to Washington DC
    Finance Minister Nicola Willis will travel to the United States on Tuesday to attend a meeting of the Five Finance Ministers group, with counterparts from Australia, the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom.  “I am looking forward to meeting with our Five Finance partners on how we can work ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • Pet bonds a win/win for renters and landlords
    The coalition Government has today announced purrfect and pawsitive changes to the Residential Tenancies Act to give tenants with pets greater choice when looking for a rental property, says Housing Minister Chris Bishop. “Pets are important members of many Kiwi families. It’s estimated that around 64 per cent of New ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • Long Tunnel for SH1 Wellington being considered
    State Highway 1 (SH1) through Wellington City is heavily congested at peak times and while planning continues on the duplicate Mt Victoria Tunnel and Basin Reserve project, the Government has also asked NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) to consider and provide advice on a Long Tunnel option, Transport Minister Simeon Brown ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • New Zealand condemns Iranian strikes
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Foreign Minister Winston Peters have condemned Iran’s shocking and illegal strikes against Israel.    “These attacks are a major challenge to peace and stability in a region already under enormous pressure," Mr Luxon says.    "We are deeply concerned that miscalculation on any side could ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago

  • Huge interest in Government’s infrastructure plans
    Hundreds of people in little over a week have turned out in Northland to hear Regional Development Minister Shane Jones speak about plans for boosting the regional economy through infrastructure. About 200 people from the infrastructure and associated sectors attended an event headlined by Mr Jones in Whangarei today. Last ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago

  • Health Minister thanks outgoing Health New Zealand Chair
    Health Minister Dr Shane Reti has today thanked outgoing Health New Zealand – Te Whatu Ora Chair Dame Karen Poutasi for her service on the Board.   “Dame Karen tendered her resignation as Chair and as a member of the Board today,” says Dr Reti.  “I have asked her to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago

  • Roads of National Significance planning underway
    The NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) has signalled their proposed delivery approach for the Government’s 15 Roads of National Significance (RoNS), with the release of the State Highway Investment Proposal (SHIP) today, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.  “Boosting economic growth and productivity is a key part of the Government’s plan to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Navigating an unstable global environment
    New Zealand is renewing its connections with a world facing urgent challenges by pursuing an active, energetic foreign policy, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says.   “Our country faces the most unstable global environment in decades,” Mr Peters says at the conclusion of two weeks of engagements in Egypt, Europe and the United States.    “We cannot afford to sit back in splendid ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • NZ welcomes Australian Governor-General
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has announced the Australian Governor-General, His Excellency General The Honourable David Hurley and his wife Her Excellency Mrs Linda Hurley, will make a State visit to New Zealand from Tuesday 16 April to Thursday 18 April. The visit reciprocates the State visit of former Governor-General Dame Patsy Reddy ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Pseudoephedrine back on shelves for Winter
    Associate Health Minister David Seymour has announced that Medsafe has approved 11 cold and flu medicines containing pseudoephedrine. Pharmaceutical suppliers have indicated they may be able to supply the first products in June. “This is much earlier than the original expectation of medicines being available by 2025. The Government recognised ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • NZ and the US: an ever closer partnership
    New Zealand and the United States have recommitted to their strategic partnership in Washington DC today, pledging to work ever more closely together in support of shared values and interests, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says.    “The strategic environment that New Zealand and the United States face is considerably more ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Joint US and NZ declaration
    April 11, 2024 Joint Declaration by United States Secretary of State the Honorable Antony J. Blinken and New Zealand Minister of Foreign Affairs the Right Honourable Winston Peters We met today in Washington, D.C. to recommit to the historic partnership between our two countries and the principles that underpin it—rule ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • NZ and US to undertake further practical Pacific cooperation
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced further New Zealand cooperation with the United States in the Pacific Islands region through $16.4 million in funding for initiatives in digital connectivity and oceans and fisheries research.   “New Zealand can achieve more in the Pacific if we work together more urgently and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Government redress for Te Korowai o Wainuiārua
    The Government is continuing the bipartisan effort to restore its relationship with iwi as the Te Korowai o Wainuiārua Claims Settlement Bill passed its first reading in Parliament today, says Treaty Negotiations Minister Paul Goldsmith. “Historical grievances of Te Korowai o Wainuiārua relate to 19th century warfare, land purchased or taken ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Focus on outstanding minerals permit applications
    New Zealand Petroleum and Minerals is working to resolve almost 150 outstanding minerals permit applications by the end of the financial year, enabling valuable mining activity and signalling to the sector that New Zealand is open for business, Resources Minister Shane Jones says.  “While there are no set timeframes for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Applications open for NZ-Ireland Research Call
    The New Zealand and Irish governments have today announced that applications for the 2024 New Zealand-Ireland Joint Research Call on Agriculture and Climate Change are now open. This is the third research call in the three-year Joint Research Initiative pilot launched in 2022 by the Ministry for Primary Industries and Ireland’s ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

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