Newshub Poll Shock!

Written By: - Date published: 6:30 pm, May 18th, 2020 - 158 comments
Categories: act, bill english, class war, election 2020, elections, greens, jacinda ardern, labour, national, nz first, polls, tv - Tags: , ,

 

Image

 

Party Vote:

Labour: 56.5%. Greens: 5.5%. NZ First: 2.7%

National: 30.6% ACT 1.8%

Translated to Seats:

Labour: 72, Greens 7

National: 39, ACT 2.

Preferred Prime Minister:

Jacinda Ardern: 59.5%, Simon Bridges: 4.5%, Judith Collins: 3.1%

 

That’s a lot of unemployed National  MP’s. Only Bill English really knows how Simon Bridges is feeling about now. Shame nobody wants to take the job off him.

Jacinda Ardern and her cabinet, MP’s and staff should take the credit. Over 90% of Kiwis approve the Covid 19 strategy. The communication and delivery of our response has been world class.

Bad news for NZ First. There’s still a chance that some of the lost Tory vote will come their way. If I’m correct that the PM would be wise to keep them in the tent to help guarantee a third term, then some conservative voters might look to Winston to be the opposition within the Government.

But that’s a slim chance.

For now, lets just bask in the glory that is finally burying the claim that John Key was our most popular PM.

I never thought he was, and now he ain’t.

 

EDIT: There’s still hope, righties:

 

 

158 comments on “Newshub Poll Shock! ”

  • Comments are now closed

  1. Ad 1
    18 May 2020 at 6:33 pm

    We were worse than this National result after the 2014 result. Much worse.

    • Psycho Milt 1.1
      18 May 2020 at 6:44 pm

      If "we" means Labour, there's no direct comparison, since Labour has the Green Party to the left of it. You'd have to compare Labour/Green 2014 with National/ACT now.

      • Ad 1.1.1
        18 May 2020 at 6:57 pm

        Labour was down at 24.7% at 2014.

        In terms of being able to build a party up again to a place where it could imagine governing, it takes that long.

        If you were inside Labour at that point, you'd understand where Bridges is now.

        • weka 1.1.1.1
          18 May 2020 at 7:15 pm

          What are the things that have changed in Labour since then?

          Ardern changed everything obviously, but the other stuff is less visible from the outside.

        • Muttonbird 1.1.1.2
          18 May 2020 at 7:18 pm

          Why didn't you bother to put that in the first comment? Is it because you are addicted to controversial commenting?

          Grow. Up.

        • te reo putake 1.1.1.3
          18 May 2020 at 7:23 pm

          While you are correct that Labour were below 25% just before the 2014 election, it's important to remember that they ceded most of their vote to the parties they would go into Government with just 3 years later.

          In 2014 it was Labour 25%, Greens 10% and NZF just under 9% for a total of 44%, against National's 47% (governing with support from the Maori Party, ACT and United Future).

          In today's poll, National are ceding their vote directly to Labour.

          • Ad 1.1.1.3.1
            18 May 2020 at 7:30 pm

            Everyone's ceding vote to Labour. Particularly our support partners.

            • observer 1.1.1.3.1.1
              18 May 2020 at 7:47 pm

              That is poor maths. Look at the numbers.

              Support is being picked up from National and NZF. Not the other support partner.

              The Greens are doing better than every previous support party, in 24 years of MMP.

              • Muttonbird …
                18 May 2020 at 7:54 pm

                It's dreadful maths and dreadfully lazy analysis. The Greens have not lost a point and NZF maybe 2% or 3% tops. The Nats meanwhile have shipped 13%.

                So not "particularly our support partners" at all. That is not even remotely true.

                • Ad …
                  18 May 2020 at 8:07 pm

                  Perfectly true as a % loss of vote.

                  A 10% loss leaves a perfectly viable National Party.

                  A 2.3% loss underwater sees NZF gone.

                  A .6% loss sees the Greens gone.

                  And anyone who believe Labour will be at 50% at polling day and able to govern by themselves is delusional. So this poll is a nasty campaign shock for the continuance of Jacinda.

                  .6% not look like a lot of votes changing for the Greens, but actually it means everything. It means government or not.

                  • Muttonbird …
                    18 May 2020 at 8:14 pm

                    You're mad. I just looked at the NZF change and it wasn't 2-3%, it was less than 1%.

                    Why can't you admit that you were wrong when you said:

                    Everyone's ceding vote to Labour. Particularly our support partners.

                    • Ad …
                      18 May 2020 at 8:47 pm

                      "underwater" means the 5% threshold.

                      The vote decreases in National, Greens, and NZFirst, probably haven't gone to Act. They've gone to Labour .

                      On this poll both Greens and NZF have now put a second Labour-led government at very high risk of failure.

                    • Muttonbird …
                      18 May 2020 at 8:59 pm

                      Don't try and skirt around what you claimed with this lazy crypto-speak you like to indulge in.

                      The rest of us commenters are held to a high standard having to explain exactly what we mean with links and approved commenting style.

                      Why are you allowed to get away with not doing the same?

                    • Incognito []
                      18 May 2020 at 10:12 pm

                      Hang on there, soldier! There’s a lot to unpack in that comment.

                      It is true that some of us have been trying to lift the quality of comments here and I don’t make any apologies for that!

                      There is no “approved commenting style”; there is the site’s policy & rules that everybody should know. They are lenient and not prescriptive by any means. We encourage robust debate.

                      When one asserts something, they need to back it up.

                      When one quotes something, they need to provide a link.

                      When one gets a little too personal and carried away, they need to tone it down.

                      Ad’s comments can be hard to follow but in this instance, I think he’s been quite clear. In fact, I’d agree with him; complacency can be this Government’s undoing. He’s stating his opinion, quite clearly, and, as such, doesn’t need to provide a link 😉

                    • Muttonbird …
                      18 May 2020 at 10:39 pm

                      I am not surprised you would back him up! I'm also not surprised you failed to see what I'm trying to hold Ad to account for. That is the statement that support in this poll has gone to Labour "particularly" from its support partners.

                      That is plainly untrue. Yet some people get away with untruths.

                      Ad’s and your own redirection to an argument about non-existent complacency was off topic.

                      You could publicly ask Ad to make his comments easier to follow. That would be great.

                      It’s a massive turn off for new commenters as I’m sure you are aware.

              • Ad …
                18 May 2020 at 7:55 pm

                Look it's great to see the Greens survive. They're lower than where they were when they got in last time.

                No one should be pleased with this Green polling result. .5% above death is not a place to be.

                We should take about 30 minutes to be happy for Labour.

                But we got to 61% a few years back and still needed Dunne and still make a government.

            • Bearded Git 1.1.1.3.1.2
              18 May 2020 at 7:55 pm

              Disagree…greens are holding up

  2. Kat 2
    18 May 2020 at 6:33 pm

    Her comment gives us all a clue as to why she is so popular: "It speaks to the work we've jointly done. I just happen to have had the humble and privileged opportunity to be leading at this time."

    Labour have indeed come home.

  3. observer 3
    18 May 2020 at 6:38 pm

    Tova was talking about TV3 polls. Not all polls.

    Key's numbers in first term.

    Key is still the record holder if we're relying on individual polls. Better to count votes.

    • Incognito 3.1
      18 May 2020 at 10:16 pm

      He will always be in the record books for being the most likeable but not for being the kindest. I know which record I’d prefer.

      • clare 3.1.1
        19 May 2020 at 10:08 am

        what do you mean "likeable", he always gave me the creeps. slimy bastard

        • Incognito 3.1.1.1
          19 May 2020 at 10:13 am

          That was his persona, or at least one of them, and one that many bought into. It is and was always in the eye of the beholder.

          • JO 3.1.1.1.1
            19 May 2020 at 10:27 am

            Let's swap likeable for affable which better describes what a lot of people thought they saw. Cheshire cat grins and the lean and hungry look of yonder Cassius, likeable?

  4. Dennis Frank 4
    18 May 2020 at 6:41 pm

    Okay, that's good for Aotearoa, but the danger for Labour is obvious: over-confidence & complacency. The PM will need to alert her caucus & staff to that!

    It's historic, certainly. A vindication of her pandemic strategy. That 90% rating holding up this long is astonishing.

    • Incognito 4.1
      18 May 2020 at 10:16 pm

      yesenlightened

    • Chris 4.2
      18 May 2020 at 11:34 pm

      I hope Labour takes the time to think about how it can bust the myth that they come second when it comes to managing the economy. It's difficult times that show how vital that is. The talk is that in a few months when the real aftermath hits, if it does, then people will turn to the nats. That general view is based on the assumption that the nats are better at finance, but that's not true and probably never has been. Sure, Labour are going to have to continue to show they're up to it. But the job wouldn't be so difficult if the truth about who the better managers of the economy are were common knowledge.

      • Incognito 4.2.1
        18 May 2020 at 11:50 pm

        Not as long as you have people such as Luke Malpass, the Political Editor of Stuff, propagating similar views:

        Robertson is expected to do similar, but with a party and Government that have higher spending wired into their DNA.

        https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/121523741/coronavirus-the-covid19-budget-and-the-consequences-campaign

        • Chris 4.2.1.1
          19 May 2020 at 2:26 am

          So just accept the falsehood because nothing can be done to change it. Such a can-do attitude.

          • Incognito 4.2.1.1.1
            19 May 2020 at 8:48 am

            It was a direct reply to your last sentence. In fact, I agreed with your comment that Labour is up against public perception. I don’t think I suggested that it was a reason to do nothing!?

            • Chris 4.2.1.1.1.1
              19 May 2020 at 5:38 pm

              That's good.

            • Chris 4.2.1.1.1.2
              19 May 2020 at 8:20 pm

              Just tonight in a story on TV3 news that talked about the obvious need for Labour to deliver on the economy, the assumption was that the nats were better financial managers and that Labour. It's that widespread myth regarding the two parties' track records on things financial, as opposed to, for example, what's required in the upcoming months and what the message should be, that Labour needs to address. How to do that successfully is of course another matter, but it's crucial that basic untruth is dealt to. Once that's been done it becomes so much easier for the general public to see that national have no clothes.

        • Nic the NZer 4.2.1.2
          19 May 2020 at 7:40 am

          Labour need to change the basis for the conversation. Healthy economic policy is not penny pinching at the first opportunity or balancing the budget. In fact Robertson is getting there with the focus on employment but will need to communicate what is being done directly to the public.

          • Incognito 4.2.1.2.1
            19 May 2020 at 8:50 am

            They want a clearly articulated plan for the economy, which is maybe asking a little too much, for a number of reasons, but there you have it. Even just five bullet points will do it, for National voters 😉

            • Nic the NZer 4.2.1.2.1.1
              19 May 2020 at 9:01 am

              At least inside the neo-liberal framework I consider long term planning pointless. Essentially the long term plans are to be brought out and looked at in a few years and everyone can have a good laugh about all the irrelevant concerns of the long forgotten past.

              Labour need to shift the public discourse to a place where the country can afford public goods and not just the subset of commercially profitable ones. Then we can worry about the longer term as these institutions will start surviving the next economic downturn.

              • Incognito …
                19 May 2020 at 9:59 am

                Ok, but what is the point of public discourse if not to offer an acceptable plan to the masses?

                • Nic the NZer …
                  19 May 2020 at 10:17 am

                  The government did in fact offer a plan, its called the budget, but the first step is going to have to be explaining to the public how the budget (and other public policy) works. The media clearly didn't understand it or explain it on reasonable terms so should be bypassed until they are able to expain that.

                  I was actually fairly impressed by the govt recovery plans (esp the green party additions) even if they didn't sound like some over-arching plan to the media.

                  Public discourse is to explain how you are governing and earning the rights to govern in a fit manner. Its not just a forecasting activity.

                  • Incognito …
                    19 May 2020 at 8:24 pm

                    I’m afraid you may have to count me in with the public that don’t fully understand the over-arching recovery plan but it sounded good to me, for the most part. I’ve never had the feeling with this or previous Governments that I was presented with a robust, cohesive, and coherent plan based on strong values. The rhetoric is never far away and major speeches always include the right words that resonate with people but then I make a coffee and it is BAU again. The more things change, the more they stay the same. For a fleeting moment I had hope that there is a silver lining to the pandemic and the lockdown but now I’m not so sure anymore. Was this the existential crisis that was meant to shake us out of our apathy? I know you tend to view things through an economic lens so please ignore my rant.

                    • Nic the NZer …
                      20 May 2020 at 1:20 pm

                      I guess it would be nice to have a more comprehensive narrative to provide some certainty, but on the other hand if you had the 5 year plan in front of you (and New Zealand still produces them as much as China does) would you take it particularly seriously?

                      I mean the recent history of these has been basically Wayne's notion of measure the change in debt to GDP and the deficit against GDP and then use it as an indicator of the countries socialist vs capitalist direction. But this is just so meaningless its not even a narrative worth worrying about.

                      I am more interested in the actual social (and economic) change and I believe it happens in a sequence of small steps so its more important to focus on the direction of travel and the next steps than to worry much about what it will be like once the destination is reached. There is also the conundrum that in New Zealand at least its about multiple peoples plans for the destination and we need to take into account that even the people on the same page have subtle differences as to the implications of the plans before them.

                      My brief summary is that this episode is basically the oppositions 'but you never gave us a plan' narrative. Neither side has actually had any more to their plans previously of course, but this just now appears to be the best spin to some aspects of the media.

                    • Incognito []
                      20 May 2020 at 9:24 pm

                      Ta

    • Craig H 4.3
      19 May 2020 at 12:03 am

      See Ad's point above about 61% and Dunne – Caucus has been reminded of that…

  5. The Al1en 5
    18 May 2020 at 6:42 pm

    For those of us who had to watch the polls from 2008 and facepalm our way through another election defeat after defeat, it's a nice feeling to direct a belly laugh, or six, towards our blue brethren in pain. Well played agent Soiman, well played. lol

    Good to see the greens still above the line, and heartening they haven't shed the core support to the dominant player. Big push needed in the coming months for safety and improvement.

    Awesome to see NZfist tanking hard.

    • Cinny 5.1
      18 May 2020 at 6:58 pm

      Hehehehe my kids kicked me out of the lounge for laughing too much while we watched the news on 3 tonight.

      • The Al1en 5.1.1
        18 May 2020 at 7:05 pm

        Don't worry, you can get your chuckle back on when the rwnj commenters turn up later and start posting about rogue polls or some such nonsense, or don’t show up at all.

        Looks like those leaked polls weren't too far off the mark, either.

        • Cinny 5.1.1.1
          18 May 2020 at 7:08 pm

          Looks like those leaked polls weren't too far off the mark, either.

          Indeed 🙂 Roll on Wednesday morning when simon does his media rounds, wonder if any interviewers will mention it.

          • The Al1en 5.1.1.1.1
            18 May 2020 at 7:13 pm

            Well if the media really are unbiased after all, and with the scent of blue blood fresh in the air, they'll be looking for every leader gaff, snide comment from back benchers, or in every Wellington fishmongers for odd sized snapper on display to comment on.

    • Bearded Git 5.2
      18 May 2020 at 7:56 pm

      +100000

  6. Anne 6
    18 May 2020 at 6:44 pm

    But… but… but… that can't be right. I heard Matthew Hooton say this morning that this government's fortunes are going to tank. I mean, he's an expert . He says so, so it must be right.

    • Psycho Milt 6.1
      18 May 2020 at 6:48 pm

      To be fair, there's only one direction they can go in from here. "Plummet" might be pushing it a bit, though…

    • observer 6.2
      18 May 2020 at 6:52 pm

      Well, they probably will fall (if not "plummet").

      The up/down narrative is the nature of news. If Labour are on 52% in the next poll, that is a very good result under MMP. But the headline will be "Labour slump" … or plummet.

  7. Hooch 7
    18 May 2020 at 6:46 pm

    I’m sure this will get some people fomenting at the mouth

  8. Peter 8
    18 May 2020 at 6:46 pm

    What does this mean for Goldsmith in Epsom? Would National voters have to vote for him to see him in?

    • observer 8.1
      18 May 2020 at 6:58 pm

      The opposition finance spokesperson would always get a top 3 or 4 list placing, even if s/he is not deputy leader.

      He's in no danger, unless voters go mad and split between left party votes and Nat electorate votes.

    • te reo putake 8.2
      18 May 2020 at 7:03 pm

      Yep. On this result, National will likely have no list MP's. However, if they lose several of their normally safe electorate seats, I guess it's possible Goldsmith might scrape in if he's high enough up the list.

      I'm thinking here of seats like Northcote, Tuki Tuki, Otaki, Nelson and Rangitata, which currently have 5000+ margins. Imagine if Papakura (margin 7500) went red. I'd really miss Judith Collins.

      • bwaghorn 8.2.1
        18 May 2020 at 8:04 pm

        With a bit of luck goldsmith might fight tooth and nail to win his electorate and rimmer is gone burger

        • Nic the NZer 8.2.1.1
          19 May 2020 at 7:49 am

          More like we will have to see if Rimmer can win even one election against an opponent who isn't throwing it. National runs a very fine line each election and one false step like, Goldsmith saying vote for me in the wrong place, or leaving too many billboards up, could accidentally tip the election in his favour.

          • Tricledrown 8.2.1.1.1
            19 May 2020 at 8:50 am

            Seymour is on Welfare National have no choice and even National voters are leaving Bridges for an even dumber try hard.

            Desperate times.

    • Graeme 8.3
      19 May 2020 at 7:16 am

      Also what it means for the lower ranked electorate MPs in safe blue seats like Hamish Walker and Jackie Dean, and I'm sure there's plenty more up north who'll be in safe jobs at the expense of high ranking list MPs.

      Are we going to see a lot of them 'reconsider their future in politics' and retire to 'spend time with their families' only to have said high ranked list MPs selected in their place.

  9. r0b 9
    18 May 2020 at 6:48 pm

    Good result – a silver lining to a terrible pandemic crisis. Time to thank those voters who have newly given Labour their trust, and ask them to extend that trust to a second term in office…

  10. Incognito 10
    18 May 2020 at 6:53 pm

    The curve will flatten from here onwards.

  11. Ad 11
    18 May 2020 at 7:01 pm

    .5% above water shows the Greens need to work a whole bunch harder to get back in at all.

    • froggleblocks 11.1
      18 May 2020 at 7:23 pm

      Come election time when it's clear we'll have a Labour-led government, left-wing Labour voters will vote Greens instead to give them more power, especially to act as a counter balance to NZ First.

      That’s probably worth 1%, or may even 2%.

      • Ad 11.1.1
        18 May 2020 at 7:40 pm

        There needs to be an actual reason to vote Green that comes from the Green Party. There's no need to counter NZF since they're unlikely to be there at all. This poll should be a massive wakeup call to the Greens to go all out to fight for survival.

        • froggleblocks 11.1.1.1
          18 May 2020 at 7:53 pm

          The reason to vote for Greens in 2020 is so that they will still be around to be in Parliament in 2023. And then 2026. And then 2029. And then 2032.

          That, seriously, is reason enough, because eventually it won't be a Labour-led government any more and every voice we can get on the left is of net benefit.

          NZFirst vote is likely to go up once people realise National won't have a chance of winning, in much the same way that NZFirst and United Future rode the wave in 2002. In fact 2020 is just 2002 re-jigged when you look at the digits.

          • Ad 11.1.1.1.1
            18 May 2020 at 8:01 pm

            Voting Green in order that they continue to exist is only going to appeal to the few thousand members they have. Same as any party.

            I'd want to see the Greens' next two months building on what the Climate Commission requests of government … and make it extraordinarily popular.

            • froggleblocks 11.1.1.1.1.1
              18 May 2020 at 8:19 pm

              Voting Green in order that they continue to exist is only going to appeal to the few thousand members they have. Same as any party.

              And yet clearly they are out-polling the number of members they have.

              Now, if they were polling like in the 2-3% zone I'd agree with you. But they aren't, and haven't ever polled that low since becoming their own party separate from the Alliance.

              • Ad …
                18 May 2020 at 8:52 pm

                Simply proves my point that the appeal to "vote-Green-just-because" isn't enough.

                Greens are in government, and there's plenty of Green supporters even here who say they did great out of the budget. Greens have got major policies through this government.

                And yet they are .5% from Parliamentary oblivion. It's not whether they are 2 or 3%. It's how close they are to 5%.

                This time around in 2017 they were near 10%.

                Shaw needs to do something that pulls up at least another 1% out from somewhere.

                Same for NZF even though they often come from below 5% and still get in there.

                • Drowsy M. Kram …
                  18 May 2020 at 9:22 pm

                  "Shaw needs to do something that pulls up at least another 1%…" – does it have to be Shaw, in your opinion? Your concern for the Green's does you credit – I'm shaw they'll take your well-intentioned advice on board.

                • Incognito …
                  18 May 2020 at 10:35 pm

                  Shaw needs to do something that pulls up at least another 1% out from somewhere.

                  Same for NZF even though they often come from below 5% and still get in there.

                  One insurance policy both parties could try is to win an electorate, each. Doable when National is ‘tanking’?

                • Porkpies …
                  18 May 2020 at 11:32 pm

                  They may have been around 10% this time in 2017 but they tanked big time soon after with the Metiria Turei benefit fraud own goal and dropped to about 5%. However they still managed to climb back to 6.2% at the election. I agree the Greens need to raise their profile in the run in to election day but I don't think it's time to panic just yet.

                  • KJT …
                    19 May 2020 at 9:57 am

                    Actually went up, after Metiria exposed our miserly welfare.

                    Then went down, with the two turncoats giving the public an impression of dissention.

            • UncookedSelachimorpha 11.1.1.1.1.2
              19 May 2020 at 7:04 am

              " Voting Green in order that they continue to exist is only going to appeal to the few thousand members they have. "

              I'll be voting for them for that reason, and I'm not a member

        • Craig H 11.1.1.2
          19 May 2020 at 12:07 am

          The actual reason is to ensure a Labour government by avoiding that annoying scenario where the Greens take 4.9% of the leftwing vote and cause a National government. There are plenty of swing Green/Labour voters who will vote Green if they have to.

      • weka 11.1.2
        18 May 2020 at 8:02 pm

        or to act as a counter balance to Labour.

  12. Reality 12
    18 May 2020 at 7:14 pm

    As he always does, Simon Bridges couldn’t help himself making a snide comment about getting a haircut but not a hair dye. If he had the right touch he could have made a lighthearted comment about perhaps he should get a hair dye.

    • The Al1en 12.1
      18 May 2020 at 7:16 pm

      Looking like a startled Rabbit in the headlights, isn't that enough to make the hare die?

    • observer 12.2
      18 May 2020 at 7:23 pm

      @Reality

      That sums it up. He "couldn't help himself" is the right diagnosis, I think. It's not about a strategy or policies, it's a deep personal flaw.

      Which is why commentators who say "He'll learn from his mistakes" are missing the point. He repeats his mistakes because he can't see them. You need some self-awareness to learn and change, but he has none.

    • Anne 12.3
      18 May 2020 at 7:46 pm

      No SoH that's why.

  13. patricia 13
    18 May 2020 at 7:39 pm

    Jacinda Adern has been tempered by sad events, and has risen to the task at hand each time, showing leadership and grace.

    As she pointed out, they would bring the same team attitude to repairing the economy.

    Start donating and helping your local MP We are on a roll towards improving this country. Now that doesn't mean we will get all we want, but we are going in the right direction. "We Are Doing This!!"

  14. observer 14
    18 May 2020 at 7:43 pm

    Later this week there will be a TVNZ/Colmar Brunton poll (as always after a Budget).

    Now I'm kinda hoping the results won't be as brutal. Otherwise even National's dimmest light bulbs will get the message, and do the deed.

    Save Our Simon.

    • ianmac 14.1
      18 May 2020 at 10:09 pm

      Exactly observer. We need Simon.

    • Dennis Frank 14.2
      19 May 2020 at 7:47 am

      Oh, good. I predict some reassurance for National. CB seems to produce results putting National higher than RR – dunno why. So the differential of 13% is likely to appear in single digits – and if National is mid-30s they probably won't roll Simon unless they can agree on a suitable replacement. Lack of evident agreement is still working for him.

  15. infused 15
    18 May 2020 at 7:45 pm

    It's a combination really.

    I think what sealed the deal for National was that stupid post Simon did on Facebook. He's had some good things to attack and ballsed them up.

    Jacinda has held a press conference every, single, day. She didn't need to, but she took the opportunity to steal the oxygen. Remember, Jacinda and Labour were getting beaten up before covid hit.

    The govt has poured so much money into NZ that there's going to be no issues in the short term. All the problems are pushed out until next year, or certainly after the election.

    So I think what we are going to get is some massive economic troubles next year, and not a lot of cash to deal with it. Taxes will go up and people will lose thier job.

    I've pointed this out ages ago btw, it's not some new thing. I also posted the same thing on Kiwiblog this morning and I had no idea this poll was coming out. It was worse than i'd expected though.

    So, I hope you're all buckled in for a rough ride.

    • observer 15.1
      18 May 2020 at 7:54 pm

      I think everyone (who's honest) knows there are huge economic challenges ahead.

      In 2021 we could be enduring a global recession with no end in sight, or enjoying a bounce back. We have no idea because the virus could be anything from getting worse to getting beaten.

      Maybe it will cost Ardern the 2023 election. Or maybe the Auckland eruptions and tsunami of 2022 will. Who knows?

    • Anne 15.2
      18 May 2020 at 7:58 pm

      Jacinda has held a press conference every, single, day. She didn't need to, but she took the opportunity to steal the oxygen.

      It was a major crisis. Thousands of lives were at stake. The first few weeks in particular were especially frightening. It was her duty to front up daily and help calm the populace and allay our anxieties. She and Ashley Bloomfield did a fantastic job.

      You right wingers can't fathom compassion and real leadership can you. No insight bar your own half baked tunnel-vision fantasies with a large dollop of sour grapes on top.

      • infused 15.2.1
        18 May 2020 at 8:05 pm

        there were not thousands of lives at stake. the revised modeling shows this. dont confused compassion with clear thinking. you seem to be either one or the other.

        real leadership isnt that binary

        think i fucked up my email. on a phone hence in moderation

        [Yeah, you ‘fucked up’ the e-mail address and the system didn’t recognise you. One Moderator must have released your comment and I’ve just corrected the e-mail address. All this service for free! – Incognito]

      • Tricledrown 15.2.2
        18 May 2020 at 8:06 pm

        Not every single day John Key wouldn't of done anywhere near that.

        He got Brownlie to do pike river and Canterbury.

    • Muttonbird 15.3
      18 May 2020 at 7:59 pm

      It will be a rough ride but a country which has the stunning leadership we do will rally together and get through it. We were brought on board by JA and her team with clear and inspirational communication about the challenges and we responded. No reason to believe we can't respond to the economic headwinds in front of us too.

      • infused 15.3.1
        19 May 2020 at 11:13 am

        Well that *sounds* good, but they better hurry up and create a solid plan.

        The skeptic in me thinks this is a pile of money to push the problems in to 2021. I mean, this govt doesn't have a very good track record on delivery.

    • KJT 15.4
      18 May 2020 at 8:20 pm

      A lot less rough than with National in charge.

      The people who cannot even get the right number, dividing projected debt by 5 million.

    • I Feel Love 15.5
      18 May 2020 at 8:26 pm

      Everytime Bridges did get a sound bite or 2 he invariably fkd it up, so I doubt having him on telly every day would have helped him really. Basically NZrs know the future is gonna be tough, but Simon & co are not the ones to help us through it.

      • KJT 15.5.1
        18 May 2020 at 8:31 pm

        Even more scary for National. Bridges is, by far, the best they have.

        • observer 15.5.1.1
          18 May 2020 at 8:39 pm

          I disagree. The best of those being mentioned in the media, maybe. i.e. not Collins or Mitchell.

          That excludes people leaving (Amy Adams) or waiting (Nikki Kaye, Chris Bishop). They're all better than Bridges.

          • KJT 15.5.1.1.1
            18 May 2020 at 8:41 pm

            Actually agree with Amy Adams and Nicky Kay.

            Wonder why they are in National?

          • infused 15.5.1.1.2
            19 May 2020 at 11:15 am

            The bish is a bit too soon imo. Nikki is the only real candidate I can think of. No one likes Collins.

      • infused 15.5.2
        19 May 2020 at 11:14 am

        I don't doubt. There's very few who like Simon. I've said that for some time.

    • Tricledrown 15.6
      19 May 2020 at 9:03 am

      Infused can't help yourself trying to spread a negative future cynically.

      Bridges has acted like a complete Dick no excuses .

  16. Muttonbird 16
    18 May 2020 at 7:48 pm

    Even worse for National – they will be consumed with Bridges’ catastrophically poor performance and how to win the election rather than providing policy alternatives for the '50 year plan' the country apparently requires.

    National Party embedded media and commentators (including Josie Pagani) were all over the idea that the Nats ‘needed more time’ to come up with policy which New Zealand could honestly vote on. The election should be delayed, they cried.

    This is how the Nats repay Josie, by obsessing about themselves, lol.

    • Stephen D 16.1
      19 May 2020 at 10:09 am

      The Nats have a couple of choices.

      1.Stick with Simon and sacrifice a bunch of lower list MPs.

      2.Roll Simon for a leader who will pick up the party vote in the short term, then fall on her sword.

      3.Roll Simon for a leader who will take the loss, and rally the troops for a decent tilt at 2023.

      Senior caucus members probably want 1 or 3. Lower list MPs Judith. She might not win the election, but they know at least she'd take the fight to Jacinda.

  17. Cave Johnson 17
    18 May 2020 at 8:02 pm

    So what is Winstone's plan? Do or say something ‘outrageous’ to get attention? Try to do a deal with Labour for a seat? Or decide it's time to retire and go fishing?

  18. Nic 181 18
    18 May 2020 at 8:10 pm

    Oh JOY!! What can you say? Watch the Australian owned news media huff and puff about that result!

  19. Tricledrown 19
    18 May 2020 at 8:10 pm

    Peter's support always goes up at election time.

    National voters will give him more support for him to put a handbrake on Labour

    • Muttonbird 19.1
      18 May 2020 at 8:42 pm

      That will bleed even more votes from National. Could Bill English's 22% be under threat?

    • Craig H 19.2
      19 May 2020 at 12:11 am

      Also, party vote polls don't include "don't know", but there is always some, and NZ First commonly does well in that segment when it comes time to choose in the ballot box.

      • Dennis Frank 19.2.1
        19 May 2020 at 7:53 am

        Yeah, commentators often forget the third of the electorate who are non-aligned. Depends which way the wind is blowing on election day? Only partly. I think many choose their vote in the week or two prior. Never discount word of mouth. Only ever takes a good rumour to shift the masses…

        • Craig H 19.2.1.1
          19 May 2020 at 8:40 pm

          That's basically why the polls aren't very reliable until the last week or two.

    • infused 19.3
      19 May 2020 at 11:19 am

      I think you will see national gain a bit back before the election. Nothing to get them close to winning, but I do see this as a covid pump poll.

      I do think now a few will vote NZF to keep Labour in check. Might backfire though

  20. observer 20
    18 May 2020 at 8:35 pm

    We're missing the real story here. Who will be Labour's 72nd MP? Somebody who only agreed to make up the numbers, but accidentally gets a new job.

    Fun fact: in the 2011 and 2014 elections this would have elected the entire Labour list.

    • Muttonbird 20.1
      18 May 2020 at 8:41 pm

      In NZ and under MMP all parties face this issue. A large or unexpected rise in popularity puts some real idiots in Parliament. The sort of person who might struggle to hold a job in real life.

      If any list were to be fulfilled we right now it would be The Greens. They seem to have talent to burn.

  21. spinster 21
    18 May 2020 at 8:35 pm

    Good news well done Labour

  22. millsy 22
    18 May 2020 at 8:52 pm

    If these numbers hold, it would be the first time since 1987 that Labour won an election in its own right.

  23. swordfish 23
    18 May 2020 at 9:25 pm

    2002 vs 2020 Comparisons

    TV3 Poll Results (4 months out from Election)

    (2002 = TV3 NFO / 2020 = Newshub Reid Research)

    Lab

    2002 TV3 Poll 56.0% … 2002 Election Result 41.3%

    2020 TV3 Poll 56.5%

    Green

    2002 TV3 Poll 4.5 % … 2002 Election Result 7.0%

    2020 TV3 Poll 5.5%

    NZF

    2002 TV3 Poll 1.9% … 2002 Election Result 10.4%

    2020 TV3 Poll 2.7%

    Nat

    2002 TV3 Poll 28.0% … 2002 Election Result 20.9%

    2020 TV3 Poll 30.6%

    ACT

    2002 TV3 Poll 3.4% … 2002 Election Result 7.1%

    2020 TV3 Poll 1.8%

    Preferred PM

    2002

    Clark 45.0%

    English 10.0%

    2020

    Ardern 59.5%

    Bridges 4.5%

    • swordfish 23.1
      19 May 2020 at 7:26 am

      TV3 Preferred PM

      HIGHEST RATINGS (For recent PMs)

      Ardern 59.5% (May 2020)

      Key 55.8% (Oct 2009)

      Clark 48.0% (June 2002)

      It's been argued on Twitter that Bridges latest 4.5% (May 2020) is the lowest TV3 rating for any Oppo Ldr … but in fact Goff started on a pretty abysmal 3.7% in Feb 2009 (1st TV3 Poll of his leadership).

      Helen Clark, of course, notoriously hit a rock-bottom of 2% during her first term as Oppo Leader (Colmar Brunton). Only have exhaustive TV3 data from 1996 onwards – her lowest rating in a TV3 Poll over that period would appear to be 4% in May 1996. And in the days before TV3, National’s Jim McClay (sometimes cited as the least popular Oppo Leader since regular polling commenced) fell to a personal nadir of 3% (Colmar Brunton) before being toppled by Bolger in 1986.

  24. Muttonbird 24
    18 May 2020 at 9:47 pm

    Luke Malpass, an Australian right wing import tries his best to paint the Newshub poll in the best possible light for his masters.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/121551683/new-poll-puts-bridges-near-the-death-spiral

  25. Peter 25
    18 May 2020 at 9:47 pm

    Audrey Young in the HeraId more than answered my question, "What does this mean for Goldsmith in Epsom? Would National voters have to vote for him to see him in?"

    She said it "should also be remembered that four of Bridges' front bench are list MPs – Bennett, finance spokesman Paul Goldsmith, health spokesman Michael Woodhouse and Alfred Ngaro are list MPs and none would be returned to Parliament on current polling."

    It is fair to say I would not be heartbroken if Paula Bennett missed out. I know others who think exactly the same.

    • mac1 25.1
      18 May 2020 at 10:13 pm

      To get Goldsmith, they'll be voting for him, not Seymour. Therefore, goodbye ACT. Extreme right then sloughs off from National to join ACT and Conservative elements in 2023 to enable some coalition prospects for the National rump. Meanwhile Jamie-Lee Ross causes mischief in the centre-right.

      Won't happen? Check what happened to Labour with the Alliance, ACT, Dunne's UF all springing from FPP Labour.

  26. AB 26
    18 May 2020 at 9:57 pm

    Give it a few months and a lot of journalists will be saying that Chris Luxon is the sort of guy everyone wants to have a beer with.

    • James Thrace 26.1
      18 May 2020 at 10:52 pm

      Right after everyone realises what a misogynistic, homophobic, soulless money driver he is.

      Mmhmmm

      Have you been in a room with him? He has no charisma. John Key had charisma, even if he walked around like a snake in a human skin suit. Luxon has zero charm. Why do you think National have muzzled him from any media appearances except with a minder?

      [Nice slur there. Would you mind backing up the “misogynistic, homophobic” part? Thanks in advance – Incognito]

      • roblogic 26.1.1
        18 May 2020 at 11:24 pm

        I have met the guy briefly and he oozes charisma, seems like a genuinely decent bloke. Poor judgement perhaps on my part, and definitely on his if he signed up with the Gnats

      • Incognito 26.1.2
        18 May 2020 at 11:57 pm

        See my Moderation note @ 10:52 PM.

      • Dennis Frank 26.1.3
        19 May 2020 at 8:03 am

        Interesting comment, James. I'll just respond to the bits Incognito didn't. His appearances on national media have always created the impression that he's a natural kiwi communicator. Relaxed, affable, spontaneous. More likeable than Key.

        Now if he lacks charisma in person, I do agree that's a negative. Substantially. Difference between lightweight player & heavyweight. Would not be able to compete with Ardern on a comparative basis.

        Your personal view may not be shared widely, huh? If it is, we'll see evidence of the effect emerging eventually. The christian thing will be a liability for him too. But his big plus is lack of uncompromised competitors within National.

  27. David Mac 27
    18 May 2020 at 10:13 pm

    Patriotism peaks in times of war.

    Fortunately we haven't had to go through that to feel the warm bonds of national unity.

    As we watch the world wrestling there is warmth in how we wrestled.

    A 3 count in the 1st round.

    I love you and us,

    David,

  28. AB 28
    18 May 2020 at 10:18 pm

    National still exists – triumphalism is premature.

  29. Ken 29
    18 May 2020 at 10:22 pm

    No-matter what happens in the future, we'll always have this moment.

    It's in the bank.

  30. Jackel 30
    18 May 2020 at 10:30 pm

    Ardern up, Bridges burning. The hardest game to win is a won game. Now the tories know what it felt like for us under the smug rule of the smiling assassin. I still think you need at least some hair on your head to win an election, but that's a tale for another day.

  31. Ed1 31
    18 May 2020 at 10:31 pm

    While pleased with the poll, I think it is a shame that it looks like we will not have the change to election rules that were recommended – a reduction in the 5% threshold makes sense (last election it would have given TOP some seats), but another issue is the coat-tailing on an electorate seat – I believe an electorate seat should not give additional MPs unless the party vote reaches the threshold

  32. David Mac 32
    18 May 2020 at 11:01 pm

    I dig Jacinda and if you don't you better have a pretty good argument.

    It's a fairly high bit of high ground.

    I think the best strategy for an opposition right now is to sing her praises. To do otherwise is conducting medical experiments on Pandas.

    It seems, listening to people that know more than me, we are headed towards a pit of nasty.

    Opportunities for an opposition to suggest "How about we do it this way." will arise.

    I think a wise opposition should be saying "Fab job Jacinda."

    Yang will have windows open up.

    • roblogic 32.1
      18 May 2020 at 11:28 pm

      If SiBri stays on they will turn even more feral and Trump like. Perhaps he will survive until the election, but not a day longer. It’s a toxic brew that has no place in NZ politics.

      • David Mac 32.1.1
        18 May 2020 at 11:57 pm

        Ha, I'm not sure any politician is thinking Trump is a good guy to mirror right now. With the speed they are opening businesses up…that wedding in Bluff, one Airnz steward with a cough, wam bam, 60 positives, groom's Dad is dead. Same with the little bar in Matamata. One St Patricks frolicker and the whole town is half a chance.

        I think there is a good chance the global turmoil will escalate. With every degree of escalation where we're at will increase in importance for each and all of us.

        The opposition would need the Minister of Health spending every day on Level 4 shooting brown Kiwi to have a sniff of a chance right now.

        I think they need to take notes and keep their powder dry.

  33. sumsuch 33
    19 May 2020 at 12:11 am

    I dinna care for polls. Seen'm all. Prefer the strategy of truth and a little tactics at the end.

    The main thing is we have 10 years to … you know it. It is 1939 for 10 years. Covid declares that, if it declares nothing else.

  34. David Mac 34
    19 May 2020 at 12:40 am

    Flawed in so many ways. Polls are still the best way of reading our temperature.

    The crucial variables live in the questions asked.

  35. Ken 35
    19 May 2020 at 1:34 am

    I remember this far out from National's third term thinking that there was plenty of time and that polls would turn and Labour would win in the end.

    People thought Key was cool and nothing changed that.
    David Shearer, a guy who's ten times the man that Key is, never got a look in – minds were made up.

    Andrew Little was "Mr7%" no-matter how much good policy he put forward.

    Well now Si-moan is Mr4%, with no Saint Jacinda riding to the rescue anywhere on the horizon.

    These polls might mellow a bit, but they're never going to do an about-face before September

  36. Sanctuary 36
    19 May 2020 at 8:55 am

    If this result is coupled with a big stay at home National vote – if only I had a dollar for every National supporter I know who can't bring themselves to vote for Bridges but also won't vote for Labour then I'd be able to buy a lare meal at Maccas – then this really could be a disaster of Bill English proportions for National.

    It is way to soon for Luxton, the guy isn't even in parliament yet and it is an open question if he is another Key or just a gaff prone businessman with a checkered record at Air New Zealand. National's failure to update it's policy prescription since 2005 is coming back to haunt them. According to Politik these are MPs most likely to get the chop – Melissa Lee, Chris Bishop, Anne Tolley, Kanwaljit Singh Bakshi, Tim Macindoe, Brett Hudson, Jian Yang, Parmjeet Parmar, Jo Hayes, Andrew Falloon, Harete Hipango, Lawrence Yule, Maureen Pugh, Nicola Willis and Paulo Garcia. When you add to that list the deeply unpopular Paula Bennett you get a sense of staleness – stale message, stale zeitgeist, stale under-performers. And a Chinese spy, which is something that bothers a lot more Nat voters than you woyuld think – kinda one of those issues that won't get them voting Labour, but is one more reason to stay at home in September.

    https://www.politik.co.nz/2020/05/19/can-bridges-survive/

    [Link fixed]

    • RedLogix 36.1
      19 May 2020 at 9:52 am

      Good analysis, and a testament to the fact that having a lot of MP's does not necessarily translate into having a depth of ability.

      Which is going to be Labour's likely problem in six month's time. Great to have 60 odd MP's but what to do with them all?

  37. RedLogix 37
    19 May 2020 at 9:39 am

    Great. A good outcome, earned the hard way in tough times. It sets us up for a possible three term left wing govt that we are going to need in the challenging decade ahead of us.

    It does of course represent a unique opportunity for Labour to get a strong batch of fresh next generation talent into the House. Any thoughts along this line?

  38. Treetop 38
    19 May 2020 at 10:17 am

    I am over the moon with this TV 3 poll.

    Ardern is a competent PM who has a competent finance minister.

    I am not surprised with Seymour gaining another seat with this poll.

    Could someone do a senario how many seats would Seymour get if he gets 5% of the Act Party vote?

    What is behind the swing to Labour, it is more than the leader?

    The memory of the meanness from the National Government to those in reciet of a benefit just might be what is causing the swing to Labour from some National voters.

    Small business going under is not caused directly by the government and is not just a NZ problem.

    Unless National have a rescue plan for small business which is going to be a saviour taking Covid-19 into account, how National are polling will hardly change.

    The rate Labour are polling at, it could get even better.

  39. Kevin 39
    19 May 2020 at 12:19 pm

    If you can stomach it:

    https://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2020/05/latest_poll-74.html

    The faithful on Kiwiblog are in disbelief. They just don't get it. The level of hostility, misogyny and delusion makes for sad reading.

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    It’s a simple deal. We pay taxes in order to finance the social services we want and need. The carnage now occurring across the public sector though, is breaking that contract. Over 3,000 jobs have been lost so far. Many are in crucial areas like Education where the impact of ...
    Gordon CampbellBy lyndon
    20 hours ago

  • Meeting the Master Baiters
    Hi,A friend had their 40th over the weekend and decided to theme it after Curb Your Enthusiasm fashion icon Susie Greene. Captured in my tiny kitchen before I left the house, I ending up evoking a mix of old lesbian and Hillary Clinton — both unintentional.Me vs Hillary ClintonIf you’re ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    22 hours ago

  • How extreme was the Earth's temperature in 2023
    This is a re-post from Andrew Dessler at the Climate Brink blog In 2023, the Earth reached temperature levels unprecedented in modern times. Given that, it’s reasonable to ask: What’s going on? There’s been lots of discussions by scientists about whether this is just the normal progression of global warming or if something ...
    Skeptical Science
    1 day ago

  • Backbone, revisited
    The schools are on holiday and the sun is shining in the seaside village and all day long I have been seeing bunches of bikes; Mums, Dads, teens and toddlers chattering, laughing, happy, having a bloody great time together. Cheers, AT, for the bits of lane you’ve added lately around the ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    1 day ago

  • Ministers are not above the law
    Today in our National-led authoritarian nightmare: Shane Jones thinks Ministers should be above the law: New Zealand First MP Shane Jones is accusing the Waitangi Tribunal of over-stepping its mandate by subpoenaing a minister for its urgent hearing on the Oranga Tamariki claim. The tribunal is looking into the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago

  • What’s the outfit you can hear going down the gurgler? Probably it’s David Parker’s Oceans Sec...
    Buzz from the Beehive Point  of Order first heard of the Oceans Secretariat in June 2021, when David Parker (remember him?) announced a multi-agency approach to protecting New Zealand’s marine ecosystems and fisheries. Parker (holding the Environment, and Oceans and Fisheries portfolios) broke the news at the annual Forest & ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    2 days ago

  • Will politicians let democracy die in the darkness?
    Bryce Edwards writes  – Politicians across the political spectrum are implicated in the New Zealand media’s failing health. Either through neglect or incompetent interventions, successive governments have failed to regulate, foster, and allow a healthy Fourth Estate that can adequately hold politicians and the powerful to account. ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    2 days ago

  • Matt Doocey doubles down on trans “healthcare”
    Citizen Science writes –  Last week saw two significant developments in the debate over the treatment of trans-identifying children and young people – the release in Britain of the final report of Dr Hilary Cass’s review into gender healthcare, and here in New Zealand, the news that the ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    2 days ago

  • A TikTok Prime Minister.
    One night while sleeping in my bed I had a beautiful dreamThat all the people of the world got together on the same wavelengthAnd began helping one anotherNow in this dream, universal love was the theme of the dayPeace and understanding and it happened this wayAfter such an eventful day ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    2 days ago

  • Texas Lessons
    This is a guest post by Oscar Simms who is a housing activist, volunteer for the Coalition for More Homes, and was the Labour Party candidate for Auckland Central at the last election. ...
    Greater AucklandBy Guest Post
    2 days ago

  • Bernard's pick 'n' mix of the news links at 6:06 am
    The top six news links I’ve seen elsewhere in the last 24 hours as of 6:06 am on Wednesday, April 17 are:Must read: Secrecy shrouds which projects might be fast-tracked RNZ Farah HancockScoop: Revealed: Luxon has seven staffers working on social media content - partly paid for by taxpayer Newshub ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    2 days ago

  • Fighting poverty on the holiday highway
    Turning what Labour called the “holiday highway” into a four-lane expressway from Auckland to Whangarei could bring at least an economic benefit of nearly two billion a year for Northland each year. And it could help bring an end to poverty in one of New Zealand’s most deprived regions. The ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    2 days ago

  • Bernard's six-stack of substacks at 6:26 pm
    Tonight’s six-stack includes: launching his substack with a bunch of his previous documentaries, including this 1992 interview with Dame Whina Cooper. and here crew give climate activists plenty to do, including this call to submit against the Fast Track Approvals bill. writes brilliantly here on his substack ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    2 days ago

  • At a glance – Is the science settled?
    On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
    Skeptical Science
    2 days ago

  • Apposite Quotations.
    How Long Is Long Enough? Gaza under Israeli bombardment, July 2014. This posting is exclusive to Bowalley Road. ...
    Bowalley Road
    2 days ago

  • What’s a life worth now?
    You're in the mall when you hear it: some kind of popping sound in the distance, kids with fireworks, maybe. But then a moment of eerie stillness is followed by more of the fireworks sound and there’s also screaming and shrieking and now here come people running for their lives.Does ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    2 days ago

  • Howling at the Moon
    Karl du Fresne writes –  There’s a crisis in the news media and the media are blaming it on everyone except themselves. Culpability is being deflected elsewhere – mainly to the hapless Minister of Communications, Melissa Lee, and the big social media platforms that are accused of hoovering ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago

  • Newshub is Dead.
    I don’t normally send out two newsletters in a day but I figured I’d say something about… the news. If two newsletters is a bit much then maybe just skip one, I don’t want to overload people. Alternatively if you’d be interested in sometimes receiving multiple, smaller updates from me, ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    3 days ago

  • Seymour is chuffed about cutting early-learning red tape – but we hear, too, that Jones has loose...
    Buzz from the Beehive David Seymour and Winston Peters today signalled that at least two ministers of the Crown might be in Wellington today. Seymour (as Associate Minister of Education) announced the removal of more red tape, this time to make it easier for new early learning services to be ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    3 days ago

  • Bryce Edwards: Will politicians let democracy die in the darkness?
    Politicians across the political spectrum are implicated in the New Zealand media’s failing health. Either through neglect or incompetent interventions, successive governments have failed to regulate, foster, and allow a healthy Fourth Estate that can adequately hold politicians and the powerful to account. Our political system is suffering from the ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    3 days ago

  • Was Hawkesby entirely wrong?
    David Farrar  writes –  The Broadcasting Standards Authority ruled: Comments by radio host Kate Hawkesby suggesting Māori and Pacific patients were being prioritised for surgery due to their ethnicity were misleading and discriminatory, the Broadcasting Standards Authority has found. It is a fact such patients are prioritised. ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago

  • PRC shadow looms as the Solomons head for election
    PRC and its proxies in Solomons have been preparing for these elections for a long time. A lot of money, effort and intelligence have gone into ensuring an outcome that won’t compromise Beijing’s plans. Cleo Paskall writes – On April 17th the Solomon Islands, a country of ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago

  • Climate Change: Criminal ecocide
    We are in the middle of a climate crisis. Last year was (again) the hottest year on record. NOAA has just announced another global coral bleaching event. Floods are threatening UK food security. So naturally, Shane Jones wants to make it easier to mine coal: Resources Minister Shane Jones ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago

  • Is saving one minute of a politician's time worth nearly $1 billion?
    Is speeding up the trip to and from Wellington airport by 12 minutes worth spending up more than $10 billion? Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The six news items that stood out to me in the last day to 8:26 am today are:The Lead: Transport Minister Simeon Brown announced ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago

  • Long Tunnel or Long Con?
    Yesterday it was revealed that Transport Minister had asked Waka Kotahi to look at the options for a long tunnel through Wellington. State Highway 1 (SH1) through Wellington City is heavily congested at peak times and while planning continues on the duplicate Mt Victoria Tunnel and Basin Reserve project, the ...
    Greater AucklandBy Matt L
    3 days ago

  • Smoke And Mirrors.
    You're a fraud, and you know itBut it's too good to throw it all awayAnyone would do the sameYou've got 'em goingAnd you're careful not to show itSometimes you even fool yourself a bitIt's like magicBut it's always been a smoke and mirrors gameAnyone would do the sameForty six billion ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    3 days ago

  • What is Mexico doing about climate change?
    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections The June general election in Mexico could mark a turning point in ensuring that the country’s climate policies better reflect the desire of its citizens to address the climate crisis, with both leading presidential candidates expressing support for renewable energy. Mexico is the ...
    Skeptical Science
    3 days ago

  • State of humanity, 2024
    2024, it feels, keeps presenting us with ever more challenges, ever more dismay.Do you give up yet? It seems to ask.No? How about this? Or this?How about this?When I say 2024 I really mean the state of humanity in 2024.Saturday night, we watched Civil War because that is one terrifying cliff we've ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    3 days ago

  • Govt’s Wellington tunnel vision aims to ease the way to the airport (but zealous promoters of cycl...
    Buzz from the Beehive A pet project and governmental tunnel vision jump out from the latest batch of ministerial announcements. The government is keen to assure us of its concern for the wellbeing of our pets. It will be introducing pet bonds in a change to the Residential Tenancies Act ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    4 days ago

  • The case for cultural connectedness
    A recent report generated from a Growing Up in New Zealand (GUiNZ) survey of 1,224 rangatahi Māori aged 11-12 found: Cultural connectedness was associated with fewer depression symptoms, anxiety symptoms and better quality of life. That sounds cut and dry. But further into the report the following appears: Cultural connectedness is ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago

  • Useful context on public sector job cuts
    David Farrar writes –    The Herald reports: From the gory details of job-cuts news, you’d think the public service was being eviscerated.   While the media’s view of the cuts is incomplete, it’s also true that departments have been leaking the particulars faster than a Wellington ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago

  • Gordon Campbell On When Racism Comes Disguised As Anti-racism
    Remember the good old days, back when New Zealand had a PM who could think and speak calmly and intelligently in whole sentences without blustering? Even while Iran’s drones and missiles were still being launched, Helen Clark was live on TVNZ expertly summing up the latest crisis in the Middle ...
    Gordon CampbellBy lyndon
    4 days ago

  • Govt ignored economic analysis of smokefree reversal
    Costello did not pass on analysis of the benefits of the smokefree reforms to Cabinet, emphasising instead the extra tax revenues of repealing them. Photo: Hagen Hopkins, Getty Images TL;DR: The six news items that stood out to me at 7:26 am today are:The Lead: Casey Costello never passed on ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago

  • True Blue.
    True loveYou're the one I'm dreaming ofYour heart fits me like a gloveAnd I'm gonna be true blueBaby, I love youI’ve written about the job cuts in our news media last week. The impact on individuals, and the loss to Aotearoa of voices covering our news from different angles.That by ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago

  • Who is running New Zealand’s foreign policy?
    While commentators, including former Prime Minister Helen Clark, are noting a subtle shift in New Zealand’s foreign policy, which now places more emphasis on the United States, many have missed a key element of the shift. What National said before the election is not what the government is doing now. ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    4 days ago

  • 2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #15
    A listing of 31 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, April 7, 2024 thru Sat, April 13, 2024. Story of the week Our story of the week is about adults in the room setting terms and conditions of ...
    Skeptical Science
    4 days ago

  • Feline Friends and Fragile Fauna The Complexities of Cats in New Zealand’s Conservation Efforts

    Cats, with their independent spirit and beguiling purrs, have captured the hearts of humans for millennia. In New Zealand, felines are no exception, boasting the highest national cat ownership rate globally [definition cat nz cat foundation]. An estimated 1.134 million pet cats grace Kiwi households, compared to 683,000 dogs ...

    Gareth’s WorldBy admin
    4 days ago

  • Or is that just they want us to think?
    Nice guy, that Peter Williams. Amiable, a calm air of no-nonsense capability, a winning smile. Everything you look for in a TV presenter and newsreader.I used to see him sometimes when I went to TVNZ to be a talking head or a panellist and we would yarn. Nice guy, that ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    5 days ago

  • Fact Brief – Did global warming stop in 1998?
    Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. This fact brief was written by Sue Bin Park in collaboration with members from our Skeptical Science team. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline. Did global warming stop in ...
    Skeptical Science
    5 days ago

  • Arguing over a moot point.
    I have been following recent debates in the corporate and social media about whether it is a good idea for NZ to join what is known as “AUKUS Pillar Two.” AUKUS is the Australian-UK-US nuclear submarine building agreement in which … Continue reading → ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    5 days ago

  • No Longer Trusted: Ageing Boomers, Laurie & Les, Talk Politics.
    Turning Point: “What has turned me away from the mainstream news media is the very strong message that its been sending out for the last few years.” “And what message might that be?” “That the people who own it, the people who run it, and the people who provide its content, really don’t ...
    Bowalley Road
    5 days ago

  • Mortgage rates at 10% anyone?
    No – nothing about that in PM Luxon’s nine-point plan to improve the lives of New Zealanders. But beyond our shores Jamie Dimon, the long-serving head of global bank J.P. Morgan Chase, reckons that the chances of a goldilocks soft landing for the economy are “a lot lower” than the ...
    Point of OrderBy xtrdnry
    6 days ago

  • Sad tales from the left
    Michael Bassett writes –  Have you noticed the odd way in which the media are handling the government’s crackdown on surplus employees in the Public Service? Very few reporters mention the crazy way in which State Service numbers rocketed ahead by more than 16,000 during Labour’s six years, ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago

  • In Whose Best Interests?
    On The Spot: The question Q+A host, Jack Tame, put to the Workplace & Safety Minister, Act’s Brooke van Velden, was disarmingly simple: “Are income tax cuts right now in the best interests of lowering inflation?”JACK TAME has tested another MP on his Sunday morning current affairs show, Q+A. Minister for Workplace ...
    Bowalley Road
    6 days ago

  • Don’t Question, Don’t Complain.
    It has to start somewhereIt has to start sometimeWhat better place than here?What better time than now?So it turns out that I owe you all an apology.It seems that all of the terrible things this government is doing, impacting the lives of many, aren’t necessarily ‘bad’ per se. Those things ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    6 days ago

  • Auckland faces 25% water inflation shock
    Three Waters became a focus of anti-Government protests under Labour, but its dumping by the new Government hasn’t solved councils’ funding problems and will eventually hit the back pockets of everyone. Photo: Lynn Grieveson/Getty ImagesTL;DR: The six news items that stood out to me at 8:06 am today are:The Government ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago

  • Small accomplishments and large ironies
    Hello! Here comes the Saturday edition of More Than A Feilding, catching you up on the past week’s editions.Share Read more ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    6 days ago

  • The Song of Saqua: Volume VII
    In order to catch up to the actual progress of the D&D campaign, I present you with another couple of sessions. These were actually held back to back, on a Monday and Tuesday evening. Session XV Alas, Goatslayer had another lycanthropic transformation… though this time, he ran off into the ...
    A Phuulish FellowBy strda221
    6 days ago

  • Accelerating the Growth Rate?
    There is a constant theme from the economic commentariat that New Zealand needs to lift its economic growth rate, coupled with policies which they are certain will attain that objective. Their prescriptions are usually characterised by two features. First, they tend to be in their advocate’s self-interest. Second, they are ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    6 days ago

  • The only thing we have to fear is tenants themselves
    1. Which of these acronyms describes the experience of travelling on a Cook Strait ferry?a. ROROb. FOMOc. RAROd. FMLAramoana, first boat ever boarded by More Than A Feilding, four weeks after the Wahine disaster2. What is the acronym for the experience of watching the government risking a $200 million break ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    7 days ago

  • Peters talks of NZ “renewing its connections with the world” – but who knew we had been discon...
    Buzz from the Beehive The thrust of the country’s foreign affairs policy and its relationship with the United States have been addressed in four statements from the Beehive over the past 24 hours. Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters somewhat curiously spoke of New Zealand “renewing its connections with a world ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    7 days ago

  • Comprehensive Partnership the goal for NZ and the Philippines
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with the President of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr.  The Prime Minister was accompanied by MP Paulo Garcia, the first Filipino to be elected to a legislature outside the Philippines. During today’s meeting, Prime Minister Luxon and President Marcos Jr discussed opportunities to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 hours ago

  • Government commits $20m to Westport flood protection
    The Government has announced that $20 million in funding will be made available to Westport to fund much needed flood protection around the town. This measure will significantly improve the resilience of the community, says Local Government Minister Simeon Brown. “The Westport community has already been allocated almost $3 million ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    11 hours ago

  • Taupō takes pole position
    The Government is proud to support the first ever Repco Supercars Championship event in Taupō as up to 70,000 motorsport fans attend the Taupō International Motorsport Park this weekend, says Economic Development Minister Melissa Lee. “Anticipation for the ITM Taupō Super400 is huge, with tickets and accommodation selling out weeks ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    12 hours ago

  • Cost of living support for low-income homeowners
    Local Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced an increase to the Rates Rebate Scheme, putting money back into the pockets of low-income homeowners.  “The coalition Government is committed to bringing down the cost of living for New Zealanders. That includes targeted support for those Kiwis who are doing things tough, such ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    14 hours ago

  • Government backing mussel spat project
    The Coalition Government is investing in a project to boost survival rates of New Zealand mussels and grow the industry, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones has announced. “This project seeks to increase the resilience of our mussels and significantly boost the sector’s productivity,” Mr Jones says. “The project - ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    15 hours ago

  • Government focused on getting people into work
    Benefit figures released today underscore the importance of the Government’s plan to rebuild the economy and have 50,000 fewer people on Jobseeker Support, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “Benefit numbers are still significantly higher than when National was last in government, when there was about 70,000 fewer ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    18 hours ago

  • Clean energy key driver to reducing emissions
    The Government’s commitment to doubling New Zealand’s renewable energy capacity is backed by new data showing that clean energy has helped the country reach its lowest annual gross emissions since 1999, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. New Zealand’s latest Greenhouse Gas Inventory (1990-2022) published today, shows gross emissions fell ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    19 hours ago

  • Earthquake-prone buildings review brought forward
    The Government is bringing the earthquake-prone building review forward, with work to start immediately, and extending the deadline for remediations by four years, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “Our Government is focused on rebuilding the economy. A key part of our plan is to cut red tape that ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    23 hours ago

  • Thailand and NZ to agree to Strategic Partnership
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and his Thai counterpart, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, have today agreed that New Zealand and the Kingdom of Thailand will upgrade the bilateral relationship to a Strategic Partnership by 2026. “New Zealand and Thailand have a lot to offer each other. We have a strong mutual desire to build ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago

  • Government consults on extending coastal permits for ports
    RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop and Transport Minister Simeon Brown have today announced the Coalition Government’s intention to extend port coastal permits for a further 20 years, providing port operators with certainty to continue their operations. “The introduction of the Resource Management Act in 1991 required ports to obtain coastal ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • Inflation coming down, but more work to do
    Today’s announcement that inflation is down to 4 per cent is encouraging news for Kiwis, but there is more work to be done - underlining the importance of the Government’s plan to get the economy back on track, acting Finance Minister Chris Bishop says. “Inflation is now at 4 per ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • School attendance restored as a priority in health advice
    Refreshed health guidance released today will help parents and schools make informed decisions about whether their child needs to be in school, addressing one of the key issues affecting school attendance, says Associate Education Minister David Seymour. In recent years, consistently across all school terms, short-term illness or medical reasons ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • Unnecessary bureaucracy cut in oceans sector
    Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones is streamlining high-level oceans management while maintaining a focus on supporting the sector’s role in the export-led recovery of the economy. “I am working to realise the untapped potential of our fishing and aquaculture sector. To achieve that we need to be smarter with ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • Patterson promoting NZ’s wool sector at International Congress
    Associate Agriculture Minister Mark Patterson is speaking at the International Wool Textile Organisation Congress in Adelaide, promoting New Zealand wool, and outlining the coalition Government’s support for the revitalisation the sector.    "New Zealand’s wool exports reached $400 million in the year to 30 June 2023, and the coalition Government ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • Removing red tape to help early learners thrive
    The Government is making legislative changes to make it easier for new early learning services to be established, and for existing services to operate, Associate Education Minister David Seymour says. The changes involve repealing the network approval provisions that apply when someone wants to establish a new early learning service, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • RMA changes to cut coal mining consent red tape
    Changes to the Resource Management Act will align consenting for coal mining to other forms of mining to reduce barriers that are holding back economic development, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “The inconsistent treatment of coal mining compared with other extractive activities is burdensome red tape that fails to acknowledge ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • McClay reaffirms strong NZ-China trade relationship
    Trade, Agriculture and Forestry Minister Todd McClay has concluded productive discussions with ministerial counterparts in Beijing today, in support of the New Zealand-China trade and economic relationship. “My meeting with Commerce Minister Wang Wentao reaffirmed the complementary nature of the bilateral trade relationship, with our Free Trade Agreement at its ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • Prime Minister Luxon acknowledges legacy of Singapore Prime Minister Lee
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon today paid tribute to Singapore’s outgoing Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong.   Meeting in Singapore today immediately before Prime Minister Lee announced he was stepping down, Prime Minister Luxon warmly acknowledged his counterpart’s almost twenty years as leader, and the enduring legacy he has left for Singapore and South East ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • PMs Luxon and Lee deepen Singapore-NZ ties
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong. While in Singapore as part of his visit to South East Asia this week, Prime Minister Luxon also met with Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam and will meet with Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong.  During today’s meeting, Prime Minister Luxon ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • Antarctica New Zealand Board appointments
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has made further appointments to the Board of Antarctica New Zealand as part of a continued effort to ensure the Scott Base Redevelopment project is delivered in a cost-effective and efficient manner.  The Minister has appointed Neville Harris as a new member of the Board. Mr ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • Finance Minister travels to Washington DC
    Finance Minister Nicola Willis will travel to the United States on Tuesday to attend a meeting of the Five Finance Ministers group, with counterparts from Australia, the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom.  “I am looking forward to meeting with our Five Finance partners on how we can work ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • Pet bonds a win/win for renters and landlords
    The coalition Government has today announced purrfect and pawsitive changes to the Residential Tenancies Act to give tenants with pets greater choice when looking for a rental property, says Housing Minister Chris Bishop. “Pets are important members of many Kiwi families. It’s estimated that around 64 per cent of New ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • Long Tunnel for SH1 Wellington being considered
    State Highway 1 (SH1) through Wellington City is heavily congested at peak times and while planning continues on the duplicate Mt Victoria Tunnel and Basin Reserve project, the Government has also asked NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) to consider and provide advice on a Long Tunnel option, Transport Minister Simeon Brown ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • New Zealand condemns Iranian strikes
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Foreign Minister Winston Peters have condemned Iran’s shocking and illegal strikes against Israel.    “These attacks are a major challenge to peace and stability in a region already under enormous pressure," Mr Luxon says.    "We are deeply concerned that miscalculation on any side could ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • Huge interest in Government’s infrastructure plans
    Hundreds of people in little over a week have turned out in Northland to hear Regional Development Minister Shane Jones speak about plans for boosting the regional economy through infrastructure. About 200 people from the infrastructure and associated sectors attended an event headlined by Mr Jones in Whangarei today. Last ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago

  • Health Minister thanks outgoing Health New Zealand Chair
    Health Minister Dr Shane Reti has today thanked outgoing Health New Zealand – Te Whatu Ora Chair Dame Karen Poutasi for her service on the Board.   “Dame Karen tendered her resignation as Chair and as a member of the Board today,” says Dr Reti.  “I have asked her to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago

  • Roads of National Significance planning underway
    The NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) has signalled their proposed delivery approach for the Government’s 15 Roads of National Significance (RoNS), with the release of the State Highway Investment Proposal (SHIP) today, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.  “Boosting economic growth and productivity is a key part of the Government’s plan to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago

  • Navigating an unstable global environment
    New Zealand is renewing its connections with a world facing urgent challenges by pursuing an active, energetic foreign policy, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says.   “Our country faces the most unstable global environment in decades,” Mr Peters says at the conclusion of two weeks of engagements in Egypt, Europe and the United States.    “We cannot afford to sit back in splendid ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago

  • NZ welcomes Australian Governor-General
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has announced the Australian Governor-General, His Excellency General The Honourable David Hurley and his wife Her Excellency Mrs Linda Hurley, will make a State visit to New Zealand from Tuesday 16 April to Thursday 18 April. The visit reciprocates the State visit of former Governor-General Dame Patsy Reddy ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago

  • Pseudoephedrine back on shelves for Winter
    Associate Health Minister David Seymour has announced that Medsafe has approved 11 cold and flu medicines containing pseudoephedrine. Pharmaceutical suppliers have indicated they may be able to supply the first products in June. “This is much earlier than the original expectation of medicines being available by 2025. The Government recognised ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago

  • NZ and the US: an ever closer partnership
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