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Newshub poll tonight

Written By: - Date published: 2:51 pm, August 9th, 2017 - 93 comments
Categories: election 2017, polls - Tags: , ,

You’d better not be teasing me Newshub, or I will be vexed.

93 comments on “Newshub poll tonight ”

  1. DoublePlusGood 1

    I dunno, Patrick Gower has been making up ridiculous nonsense all week.

    • r0b 1.1

      Yeah I’m not counting any chickens until Sept 24th.

    • AB 1.2

      Yeah. “Incredibly explosive” in Gower-speak translates to “mildly surprising” in plain English. It has the look of a hyperbolic pimping for ratings

    • popexplosion 1.3

      yeah, how about paying to ask an obvious question… …Turea says she did wrong, so pay for a poll asking whether she was wrong… …!?#[email protected] it was not news it was spin to distract. like Joyce in QT who says they have not raised taxes that they should be thanked for raising some benefit, sorry, benefits. Two lies. Key raised GST precipitating the need to help those who pays out most of their income living day to day on gst. but no everyone got a benefit hike only single parents.

      So when asking about how rotten the media is just don’t stop at Gower, it’s endemic.

  2. mickysavage 2

    It is only one poll …

    It is the trend that is important …

    The only thing that matters is the election day poll …

    But fingers crossed!

    • Ad 2.1

      Nah. Crush ’em like bugs.

    • Enough is Enough 2.2

      There won’t be a trend in this poll

      There will an almighty bump, similar to the post Orewa bump that National got in ’05 which they have never come back down from.

      I am expecting Labour to be up 10, taking 5 off the Nats and 5 off the Green Party

      • ABS 2.2.1

        WRONG!

        [lprent: Putting you in automatic moderation for a what appears to be an inherent basic stupidity and an inability to engage in debate. ]

      • Dennis Frank 2.2.2

        Two out of three ain’t bad.. ; )

  3. The decrypter 3

    Seems to be ready to wet his pants at any time now.

  4. weka 4

    “You’d better not be teasing me Newshub, or I will be vexed”

    I’m speechless. Did you miss what happened last night? Paddy Gower and Newshub are defining and trying to control the story not reporting it. You’re not being teased, you’re being manipulated.

    • r0b 4.1

      After a lead like that the poll will have some interesting numbers in it. And whatever his other actions I don’t think Gower is making up poll results willy nilly.

      • weka 4.1.1

        There’s a class war on r0b. Gower’s not gunning for you but he is gunning for me and people I care about. Seeing his spin and manipulation being promoted on TS like this is very hard especially because of what happened last night.

        If Labour have a good bump in the polls, or even a moderate one, that’s really good and we can and should use that. But dismissing the bullshit that Gower is doing because at the moment he’s playing the game by being good to Labour is really disappointing. You’ve just come across as saying that shitting on poor people doesn’t matter if the polls are alright. Even if you believed that (which I don’t believe you do), there’s still the issue of what will happen in terms of changing the govt if they manage to pull down the Greens.

        • r0b 4.1.1.1

          There’s a lot of assumptions in there that I don’t want to debate weka, but the one that is worth questioning is that this poll must be bad for the Greens? The tease graphic has Ardern and English on it.

          I for one am hoping that the Greens are going to come out ahead.

          • Union city greens 4.1.1.1.1

            “the one that is worth questioning is that this poll must be bad for the Greens? The tease graphic has Ardern and English on it.”

            Or perhaps not. Maybe the mugshots are the set up to the “incredibly explosive” kicker?

            “I for one am hoping that the Greens are going to come out ahead.”

            Well maybe Reid have polled a thousand solo mums, unemployed, sick and invalids and we find out the greens get to govern alone with a 100% party share of the vote. Heh.

            • weka 4.1.1.1.1.1

              Newshub-Reid Research poll uses mixed methodology of 750 landlines and 250 internet panel with a 3.1% margin of error.

              • Union city greens

                Tongue in cheek more than wishful thinking

                • weka

                  Lol, yeah I got that. I was just pointing to the bit about Reid’s methods and beneficiaries with no landlines.

                  • Union city greens

                    Aye, but it would certainly get all the pearls up and down the country a good clutching lol

                    • Mrs Brillo

                      Watch those stereotypes, pet.
                      I wear pearls and use a landline, and would be delighted if the Greens governed alone! However, in my electorate it makes more sense to vote Labour. That broad church, even room for pearly old me!

                    • Union city greens

                      Good for you. I’ll be tactically voting in my electorate, too.

                      Electorate vote = Head.
                      Party vote = Heart.

                  • JanM

                    It’s not just beneficiaries with no land-lines – an increasing number of people use their number only for going on-line now

          • weka 4.1.1.1.2

            It could go either way with the Greens, but the issue remains. Gower is a key part of the attempts to destabilise the left and his spinning just got an uncritical promotion on The Standard.

            And if the Greens have a dip in the polls, for whatever reason, Gower has just had his propaganda supported and endorsed here. For next time (which the way things are going will be the rest of the week). Mission accomplished.

        • Adrian Thornton 4.1.1.2

          +1 weka
          Fucking A it is class war….a class war Labour has been enabling for 25 years.

          Turea was the only voice that spoke to the poor and disenfranchised in NZ politics, The Greens should have doubled down on this move to the Left and vigorously included the working poor in their narrative, they had (maybe still have?) the golden opportunity to become New Zealand’s only workers party, push hard into that missing million, and pick up probably over 5% right there.

      • Ovid 4.1.2

        The thing about Newshub polls is that they pull out the undecideds, so things can look a bit more extreme than they appear.

        I think given the good press Labour has enjoyed over the past week they should get a bump, but as Brexit and Trump have taught me I am reluctant to think that the Left has anything but a major fight on its hands.

      • Anne 4.1.3

        I was rung last night by Reid Research for Newshub. Didn’t fall into the correct age bracket so don’t know the details of the questions asked. Suspect its a rushed poll to take advantage of the stick ladled out to the Greens and Metiria Turei in particular.

        Regardless of which side people fall on re- the Turei affair, there’s now a vicious war on the Greens in an attempt to destroy them. Saw it coming last week.

        Edit: he’s claiming that Labour members rang him yesterday and told him that “Labour hates the Greens”. It’s balderdash!

    • Sabine 4.2

      lol.

      nah, they would never admit that.

  5. red-blooded 5

    Well, I don’t usually watch 3 News, but I will tonight.

    I know one poll doesn’t mean much, but it would be nice to have a bit of a bounce.

  6. JamieB 6

    Are we not boycotting TV3 anymore? #saintjohn

  7. esoteric pineapples 7

    I predict the polls are going to be a bit bumpy for the next few weeks

  8. Stuart Munro 8

    Gower is not the news.

    Would he falsify a poll? Well he just falsified a story about a Green candidate who accepted a job offer.

    He’s so far beneath contempt his toes are touching Whaleoil.

    • weka 8.1

      Pretty much. The poll will be outside of Gower’s control, but the spin is where he practices his craft and there’s nothing trustworthy there. He’s basically the same as Hooton, although I’m not sure it’s ideological so much as he’s a man child with toys in a sandpit.

      • Cricklewood 8.1.1

        They are very different in my opinion. Hooton is a manevolant force where as Gower is a sensationalist who is as you say a manchild playing with his toys in a bid to influence and inflate his sense of self importance.

        • weka 8.1.1.1

          Where they are the same is that nothing they say or do can be trusted because there’s not way to tell the real from the spin.

    • Ovid 8.2

      I don’t think he’d falsify a poll (although he can definitely spin one), but the media pay for polls to get eyes on screens. So they want everyone aboard the hype train.

      • Stuart Munro 8.2.1

        Pretty easy to poll a Gnat-leaning list of 500+ No-one gets to scrutinize for such chicanery. Sooner or later no checks means no balance.

        • Anne 8.2.1.1

          Interesting comment Stuart Munro. I was rung (see up the thread) and I live in a Nat. saturated part of town.

  9. Sabine 9

    luckily, i don’t have to watch TV3 and its minion.
    i just come back here and you tell me all about it.

  10. bwaghorn 10

    landslide coming in 7 weeks , labour on 42 greens on 8 and top on 5.1 . hopefully

    • McFlock 10.1

      I’d like the govt to be something like 60/40 lab/grn, to get more lefty oomph.

      • Union city greens 10.1.1

        Now that would be the happiest hangover morning after the night before I’ll ever have.

      • bwaghorn 10.1.2

        i like top , have you seen his latest on secure tenancy for renters , ?

        • McFlock 10.1.2.1

          I don’t trust top.
          Even policies I like, I suspect the good will be whittled away in the details that they omit from their policies.

          • Stuart Munro 10.1.2.1.1

            TOP would make a splendid Burkean opposition – they could actually argue policy instead of hiding behind Carter.

          • RedLogix 10.1.2.1.2

            Well I’d hope that if Lab/Grn were coalition partners with TOP you might be a little less suspicious of any resulting legislative program. 🙂

            • McFlock 10.1.2.1.2.1

              Yeah, but then I think top would be largely redundant in that government.

              • RedLogix

                Given the almost complete lack of political commitment to tax reform, CCT, UBI, tenancy security and standards, cannabis decriminalisation from either the Greens or Labour … I’d argue TOP could be a very useful component.

                I know the Greens have a LOT of detailed policy, and much of it overlapping with TOP. But there is no doubt the two parties have emphasized different aspects to the electorate and might bring different mandates to the table.

                Besides looking at Green Party values, listed here:

                https://home.greens.org.nz/values

                I would have hoped party supporters would be more open to the idea of working collaboratively. Especially with regard to Item 7.

                • McFlock

                  I’ve heard that Greens love working collaboratively. Even Labour will do it on occasion.

                  Lots of space between working with people and giving them a seat at the cabinet table.

                  Besides, I’m not sure what you mean by a lack of political commitment if you include tax reform (Labour’s got a big section on that), cannabis (Greens light on that?… puh-lease) tenancy standards (lab and greens)… that leaves CCT (well, the greens have carbon covered, it’s their thing), UBI (well, I’m not entirely convinced on that yet anyway), you really only have tweaks to tenancy security. Fair call.

                  If top has a good idea on that, I’m sure it’ll happen even without them at the table.

                  • RedLogix

                    Well I think there’s more important things happening right now than to quibble with you line by line on that.

                • greywarshark

                  Red Logix why do you have two different coloured icons by your pseudo? Purple at 4.38 and Brown at 5.09 and different shapes.
                  Just wondering. Different computers?

                  • RedLogix

                    Yes. I’m working in multiple locations at the moment.

                    Surprised you noticed …. I was oblivious.

  11. McFlock 11

    “explosive”.

    Option A: National 50%, lab20, grn7, NZ1 14, nats back to governing alone
    Option B: Lab 32, Grn 20, NZ1 12, Nat 35, Labgrn can govern, nats can’t even with NZ1.

    Anything else is a fizzer.

    • weka 11.1

      Matthew Whitehead’s take,

      “Let me guess: It shows a modest overall rise for Labour & Greens when taken together that shows them ahead of National?”

      Which is on par for the recent trend.

      • McFlock 11.1.1

        I suspect that yes, that is the sort of thing Gower would call “explosive”.

        Leaving anyone who took him at face value to deflate like a slow fart.

    • Keepcalmcarryon 11.2

      This, Mcflock.
      Plus, chill out Weka, life goes on.

    • McGrath 11.3

      I’m going to call it as both Labour and National in the 30’s, Greens below 5%, or Winston First in the 20’s. Could even be all three!

      • McFlock 11.3.1

        Given the wee spike after her initial announcement, I don’t think the greens would have fallen 9% in a week.

    • Bearded Git 11.4

      I like B, can I have B daddy? So many comments and none of us have the faintest. Why do we let Gower do this to us?

    • McFlock 11.5

      well, turned out to be a pop but not a fizz…

  12. MG 12

    Farrar is still pushing the Metiria story hard so I suspect that his polling isn’t looking good for the Nats.

  13. Tanz 13

    National in the 30s, yeah right. I don’t think so. Even the Herald thinks Turei should resign, as do a couple of her own MPs. [RL: Deleted smear line. Be more careful]

    • Tanz 13.1

      How was that a smear line? It was simply an opinion…free speech much?

      • lprent 13.1.1

        Obviously I didn’t see it. But is was unlikely to have been expressed as an opinion. RL wouldn’t have landed on it otherwise.

        If I had to guess based on past experience with ‘right’ ‘free-speechers – then it was an opinion expressed as a ‘obvious’ fact. It is the most common delusion by which ‘right’ thinkers fuck up.

        By definition when expressed about someone and containing opinions expressed as false facts AND designed to smear their reputation then that is almost the definition of defamatory.

        If it was (and from RL’s reaction it was), then be glad that the rather mild RL got to it before me. Because I’m the one who is most likely to be in the gun – and I can tell you that your speech is not ‘free’ to me.

        So I’d have slung you off the site after making my opinion quite plain.. In the meantime I suggest you constrain your indignation before my ire rises.

        • Tanz 13.1.1.1

          free speech, when it agrees with the general tone of the thread, that is. The left are great at this, they censor those who don’t agree with their lefty, odd world view.
          Kiwiblog is pretty much an echo chamber and so is this space. Sad that its agree with the group think, or else!

          • lprent 13.1.1.1.1

            Yeah, I have heard that ‘free’ speech before.

            But my comment was about if I’d have had to have suffered the consequences if your comment hadn’t been moderated. And I just happen to notice you didn’t address that at all – so I guess that your answer is effectively that I could have been liable for your foolhardy stupidity.

            So you can whine about free speech all that you like. However your ‘free speech’ is utterly constrained by the extent that you put me in legal liability. I’m not interested in suffering the consequences of your delusions about what ‘free speech should be. If you want to do that, then do it on your own site where you can suffer the unexpected consequences. After all you should take responsibility for your own actions eh?

            Live with it.

  14. ScottGN 14

    I bet it’s Preferred PM numbers rather than party support. English was pretty low anyway and you’d have to assume she’s had a bump.

    • McFlock 14.1

      good point

      • McGrath 14.1.1

        True. There will be a leap for Jacinda in the preferred PM stakes. That’s all but a given now that Andrew Little is out of the picture.

    • AB 14.2

      Strong possibility that one. Preferred PM is a pretty meaningless question anyway because of the incumbency factor. But Paddy is too thick to work that out, so would see it as “explosive”

      • ScottGN 14.2.1

        Actually I think the preferred PM numbers might be pretty useful in showing where party support might be headed. I reckon it will take longer than 1 week for support to peel off National. Winston will be pissed off!

  15. Bill 15

    Only a minimal drop for The Green Party….if any drop at all.

    And that is explosive from the perspective of msm and pundits who have backed Jacinda “all done” Ardern and thrown everything they have at undermining and rubbishing the Green Party vote.

    • AB 15.1

      That’s the explosion I want to see Bill. The on-screen explosion of Paddy’s meagre supply of brain cells as he realises his hatchet job hasn’t worked

  16. ianmac 16

    All depends on WHEN the poll was taken. A week is a long …

  17. infused 17

    Pretty sure Labour will bounce, National will go down, along with the Greens. Just by how much.

    Rinse and repeat until election day.

  18. Bearded Git 18

    MT HAS JUST RESIGNED-terrible shame but the right decision IMHO.

  19. Cricklewood 19

    Shit sounds like Meteria is hoing to resign shortly… sad end…

  20. xanthe 20

    Thats really good news

    now lets see some real talent come forward

  21. Ad 21

    Impressed to see how steady National’s numbers are. Steady at 43%.

    Tio work Labour leaking 8% to be well over 30% now.

    But I think this election is going to be won for about on the head to head debates: Ardern v English. that’s where the Undecideds will gaze.

  22. outofbed 22

    FFS …So Greens down 4.7 % because Of Metiria
    NZF down 3.8 % because of ??
    Fuck me Gower is a pratt

    Greens and NZF down because of Jacinda… As was expected

    • Dennis Frank 22.1

      Indeed possible that, if the Ardern effect pulled equally from NZF & Greens, the negative effect of Metiria’s stand only rates at 1% loss. No obvious Ardern effect on Nats supporters is the big message from this poll that most commentators are not yet mentioning. Encouraging that those wanting a change of govt now combine to significantly out-poll those supporting the status quo tho.

  23. Carolyn_nth 23

    So the NewShub latest method of polling was “shaped by Gower”! Such a boy genius!

    Basically includes 75% responses by landline, and 25% via Internet – cause they can’t afford mobile phone polling. And, while the poll does tend to treat it as a 2 horse race, and really shouldn’t, it really is a 2 horse race, and the poll really doesn’t treat it as a 2 horse race!

    “We just thought that polling was too important to stand still and keep doing things the way we were always doing it,” says Newshub political editor Patrick Gower, who was heavily involved in the shaping of the new polling system. “We’re now using the best of the old with our accurate landline polling, but we’ve been willing to move and take the jump and use the internet to supplement that.”

    While ‘Preferred Prime Minister’ is the main measure used in New Zealand (and continues to be used by Newshub), the poll is based on an unprompted question, whereas the Power Rating asks respondents to rank how the two main leaders are performing overall.
    ….
    While the Power Rating adds another dimension to the political discourse running up to election day, the danger remains that such polling sets up a two-horse race, a dynamic that may make sense in a presidential system, but perhaps less so in New Zealand’s multi-party framework.

    “The reality is, even though it is a mixed system, only two people can be PM and it’s either going to be Little or English. So in that sense, it is a two-horse race,” says Gower.

    “But you’re quite right that the main thing is to look at how all the other parties are going. And we do that, we probably do that better than anyone in terms of giving the picture of them altogether. [For example], we have the Labour and Greens rankings, but also the Labour and Greens vote put together.”

    “That’s the responsibility of me to use the data to show that it’s more than just the leaders [and] to explain the full data set.

    If politics is just a horse race and it’s just polling, I’d be out of it. I’d rather go work for the TAB or Trackside. But thankfully, politics is about a whole lot more interesting things and polling adds to that. It shouldn’t take away from it.”

  24. mosa 24

    Gowers neo liberal poll of polls.

  25. Kate 25

    Jacinda is a bit too much out of control, she talks a lot with passion, but she is impractical. She doesn’t think practically especially about housing which is so much a comprehensive thing that the final price is determined by so many factors. Jacinda always interrupts Bill. She says everything is possible without realising practical problems that contribute and needs to be addressed first.
    I hate her interruption and her lies.

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