web analytics

Nicola Willis’s Debt Higher Than All 6 Years of Ardern Government

Written By: - Date published: 12:31 pm, May 28th, 2025 - 18 comments
Categories: budget 2025, covid-19, Debt, debt / deficit, economy, grant robertson, jacinda ardern, labour, nicola willis, uncategorized - Tags:

In September 2023, Nicola Willis and Grant Robertson joined Q&A to discuss finances and budgets.

Many economists had cast doubt on National’s ability to fund their tax cuts.

One conservative economist, Michael Reddell, rubbished the foreign buyers’ tax numbers, as well as National’s economic management reputation:

“The numbers aren’t credible…. They haven’t produced the modelling – and it’s not clear why….

“It goes … to people’s sense of ‘are these people as capable potential economic managers, and managers of our government, as they’d like us to believe?”

In the same month, Luxon assured Kiwis of their economic credentials:

“I’m really confident that we know what we’re doing…and we can deliver this.”

And Willis did her best to convince New Zealand too:

Nicola Willis shows her revenue modelling on Q&A, insisting it is credible and independently verified (Sep 2023)
Jack Tame asks of Willis’s modelling, “Is this it?” (Sep 2023)

The foreign buyers’ tax was scuttled during the Coalition Agreement process, but it was just one of many aspects in National’s tax plan that didn’t add up from Day 1.

The evidence became clear when the government borrowed $12bn of new money to pay for their tax cuts, as reported on The Kākā.

Putting aside the myth that government debt is always a bad thing, the fact that Nicola Willis’s incurred debt will be higher in less time, than 6 years of the Ardern Labour government combined, is another extraordinary feat of hypocrisy – and indeed, in context, incompetence.

[Edit: I’ve updated this to make my writing clearer. She has spent $25bn to this budget and plans another $72bn. Without pay equity they would have been at ~$110bn in ~5 years. Labour was at $88bn in 6 years, including a $70bn Covid package for NZ)

Labour navigated NZ through a black swan global pandemic where tens of millions died and debt levels rose around the world in concert1 as governments sought to prevent a global depression.

Global inflation levels2 also rose, pushed by supply side constraints, industry profiteering , and demand induced, behavioural surges.

Debt levels rise in concert post Covid

Inflation spikes across major economies during & post Covid

It’s a pretty extraordinary thing to hear the party that continually lambasted Labour’s “record” debt and “irresponsible spending party” – all while ignoring Covid, the significant lives saved3, as well as positive economic Treasury forecasts as at November 20234 – as supposed evidence of financial mismanagement, whip out their own so sneakily.

Incomparably worse when you consider what Willis’s budget debt is being used for.

It’s not for infrastructure, growth, productivity, social services, natural disasters, saving lives or preserving the economy during crises.

No, they’ve cut a net $45m in this year’s budget alone in critical science and research.5 and made ~$300m total cuts across business, science and innovation programmes.6

It’s to do things like:

The sky is the limit for the latter, and although Willis claimed on the weekend it would benefit NZ, the fact there is no business case, or conditions to assure any of that at all.

This means we could very much see the case of overseas oil and gas operators use it – leaving NZ with $500mn to $1bn in clean up and debtor costs, while siphoning nearly hundreds of millions of profits overseas. We know this because it happens.9

And they come back again – after they get away.

We could see small businesses buy new utes to enjoy with a 20% tax deduction — a kind of anti-EV rebate, because we know how much the Taxpayers Union and National admire utes, while despising electric vehicles.

Their pro-ute stance was effective BTW —

This government has also substantively pulled away from social services, failed to produce any meaningful mental health plans – experts predict further declines in mental health10, forced food banks around the country to close, are making DOC beg for donations to do its critical work, led to a 53% rise in homelessness in Auckland corresponding to its cuts to emergency housing….

The list is honestly endless…

And I haven’t even mentioned the cuts to climate funding. A 50% cut to climate finance, barely even bothering to cut emissions between 2030 and 2035, and taking a scalpel to foreign aid for our Pacific partners by cutting climate aid by $100mn.

Last year in August, just before Thomas Coughlan predicted a viable “rockstar economy” I wrote: “Why more economic and social pain is coming for us all”

The upshot was clear – by implementing its austerity drive towards public services, social services, and workers, this government was cutting its revenue11, and increasing its expenses12 – all while doing nothing to increase productivity and investment.

It’s hard to imagine the level of economic incompetence this government is displaying.

More bizarre when we realise they are reportedly relying on Atlas Network’s NZ Initiative for economic tips – but also completely makes sense once we summarise their entire approach is trickle down economics, a once-upon-a-time fairy tale introduced by Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan, the darlings of early iterations of the Atlas junk tanks.

Related Video:

Republished from MT

Related article: Tracking to 25% more debt

18 comments on “Nicola Willis’s Debt Higher Than All 6 Years of Ardern Government ”

  1. Patricia Bremner 1
    28 May 2025 at 2:44 pm

    Thank you Mountain Tui, for explaining their perfidy clearly.

    Never mind "Back on Track", just "Back"

    Back to flooding money up, and missing any money trickle down.

    People are sacked from government jobs amidst funding cuts

    Every fund is squeezed for " savings'

    People leave the country for Australia

    Health systems strain amid workforce shortages

    Education follows the current beliefs, giving millions to Private Schools.

    and strain with changes on changes beginning with the highly processed lunches, and rubbish.

    Crime, well it might be perception. but it appears there are more shootings and murders.

    The normal checks and democratic balances are shunned, as is advice.

    Child Poverty… just shameful

    Past MPs form a "select Committee" to examine the new Equal Pay Laws and the blocking of current applications. They feel things are not following fair process.

    Culture wars, misinformation, and threats to those who don't agree.

    CoC have doubled down on bad decisions, and have started bad mouthing Chris Hipkins.

    He must be getting traction.

    The facts are They spend more than Grant Robertson and Jacinda, and do far far less for ordinary people, while looking after their “Sorted” friends.

    Reply
  2. ianmac 2
    28 May 2025 at 3:19 pm

    Thank you Mountain Tui for again publishing the cheating and hypocrisy of this Trump- like so called Government.

    I wonder if a counter to the CoC cheating, a single catch phrase or slogan would work. It seemed to work against the Greens with those posts and posters which falsely claimed "The Greens Want to Defund the Police."

    Fund our Stolen Health System.

    Willis has as withheld our Future Infrastructure.

    This Government Cheats.

    Reply
    • Patricia Bremner 2.1
      28 May 2025 at 3:41 pm

      Yes ianmac, Memes workdevil if they are true they resonate and get repeated.

      Reply
    • Drowsy M. Kram 2.2
      28 May 2025 at 4:02 pm

      yes "Fund our Stolen Health System." Public, not private – Fund OUR Health Service.

      "Fund Pay Equity – stolen under urgency!" CoC MPs are thieves – ram raiders even.

      For the many, not the sorted!

      Reply
    • Incognito 2.3
      28 May 2025 at 4:36 pm

      The Coalition is wiping its hole with workers’ pay.

      Reply
  3. Maurice 3
    28 May 2025 at 5:02 pm

    Has no one yet realised that this Government measures their 'success' by the level of opposition howling? This merely reinforces their belief that they – and they alone – are right over the target.

    Reply
  4. PsyclingLeft.Always 4
    28 May 2025 at 10:13 pm

    Nicola Willis’s Debt Higher Than All 6 Years of Ardern Government

    Mountain Tui, on point yet again ! The Emperor NACT1 have no clothes. (apologies, disturbing image as that is..)

    Have to say your Posts (which were always pretty damn good : ) , have become progressively fine tuned, as you utilise new skills to highlight what should be obvious.

    And nailed home by Media..and our Left Opposition.

    Bravo : )

    Reply
  5. Chris 5
    29 May 2025 at 12:52 pm

    The myth that right-wing governments are better at managing the economy is so strong it's an unquestionable truth in the minds of many many voters: wealthy politicians must be good with finances, what's to question? If this myth was truly busted significant change would occur.

    Reply
    • tc 5.1
      30 May 2025 at 6:54 am

      The departed indicates that myth is busted as people are leaving due to their management of NZ.

      What they excel at is outright lies and deception which many voters swallowed, now the consequences are all around them.

      Common sense is not that common and people aren't forced to vote so apathy rules with many.

      Reply
      • Chris 5.1.1
        30 May 2025 at 10:09 am

        Sure, but I think that's a different issue. For example, there'd be many leavers who'd think things would be worse under Labour, i.e. I don't think the myth has been busted at all.

        Reply
  6. Ad 6
    29 May 2025 at 7:44 pm

    Well they're damned if they do spend and damned if they don't then aren't they?

    Majority of the NZ budget is social welfare + NZSuper, health, education, and debt servicing.

    That's whether it's National coalition or Labour coalition.

    The rest is comparably tiny.

    We're a small average income country with small state income alternative revenues. Paying off debt is a very good idea, for the state and for all of us.

    Reply
    • SPC 6.1
      29 May 2025 at 11:41 pm

      Resilience without growth … batten down the hatches retrenchment?

      I'd rather have a 100,000 income related houses and food in schools, than a focus on lower debt.

      All councils and or their water bodies are growing debt to finance water infrastructure.

      All power companies are investing in new production.

      The sooner we have more solar panels on homes and business buildings and local and regional battery storage the better.

      Reply
      • Ad 6.1.1
        30 May 2025 at 9:10 am

        Almost all Councils are at their debt ceilings, and a large proportion of rates bills just service banks.

        Even the US is finding you can be super-rich but eventually your credit rating is marked down, and the percentage the taxpayer pays to the bank goes up.

        Our economy has been weak since 2020, tax income is low, and government spending is still not in control.

        If you've got $8-$10k for solar+battery+$20-$90k for electric car, you go for it. 90% of Kiwis don't.

        Reply
    • Patricia Bremner 6.2
      30 May 2025 at 9:21 am

      Ad, if they had not changed the landlord tax, and given targeted tax relief, we would have been hugely better off.

      The rating agencies gave our management AA+ just before the Election, we were on a trajectory of consolidation, and a return to improving debt levels.

      CoC chose to give tax relief (lower our tax income) by 12billion.

      Then they borrowed a further 14 billion.', so we were 26 billion worse off.

      Then the sacking of huge numbers in Wellington's Public Services, with the fabrication of moving resources from back to front further worsened our position.

      They have undone a huge number of laws and regulations to allow big money traction, often against our long term interests and under fast track legislation..

      They have tried to begin culture wars, and used their huge election war chest to dominate the information front, and even threatened any opposition with lowered funding or outright removal. Which is happening.

      When well respected past women politicians form a select committee to examine obvious injustice, their own are questioning the direction.

      Some may make excuses about why this is happening. Let us be clear. They bought the Election with lies and a huge war chest given by the billionaires club.

      Let us also hope next Election, we like Canada and Australia, refuse to continue on their Neoliberal Road.

      We have risen to past challenges, through collective belief, individual brilliance and applying the rule of law.

      The failure to actually borrow at cheaper rates, the Government has pushed water infrastructure on to Councils, raising rates, because it costs Councils more to borrow, and they quickly reach their debt ceilings.

      Now Seymour wishes to sell off our Power Gentailers.. Who will benefit? Not us!!

      When supposed "representatives" represent only the sorted they will lose in the end, as the rest are awakened to their collective danger from a selfish few.

      Ake Ake Ake. We need to collect together to defeat this greed. Ruining safety nets of welfare is also self damaging.

      Reply
      • Ad 6.2.1
        30 May 2025 at 9:59 am

        I don't like this government, but both Ardern-Roberton and Luxon-Willis are piling the debt on.

        Don't talk to me about Hipkins. He believes in nothing. Zero.

        Swarbrick is not even a B-list Minister.

        The Maori Party are insane and don't believe in Parliament.

        I'll help out again when there's a movement I can believe in.

        Reply
  7. Champagne Socialist 7
    30 May 2025 at 10:36 am

    This is what I like to call Keynesian economic reality. You can't reduce government spending when the economy is weak because if you do it will cause a recession. Something the government almost achieved last year.

    They have a belief that falling economic demand will lead to lower interest rates and private sector credit growth.

    It is more likely that Willis will be forced to increase government spending to get growth 'back on track'. Without an increase in government spending low growth and high unemployment will remain.

    Reply

Leave a Comment