NIWA vs the nutters

Written By: - Date published: 7:32 am, December 19th, 2010 - 19 comments
Categories: act, climate change, making shit up, rodney hide, science, scoundrels, the praiseworthy and the pitiful - Tags: , ,

The nutters in this case are the misnamed Climate ‘Science’ Coalition who appear to have no ability at science, but quite a good track record in convincing the feeble minded, like Rodney Hide. Of course that is probably just politics. Act appears to have a track record of maintaining an open door for letting any nutty special interest groups write their policies and allowing nutters to become their MPs and disgrace themselves. But I digress.

The nutters are currently running a case against the NIWA who are the body who run and interpret our weather records amongst other tasks. The basis of their accusation amounts to the nutters saying that NIWA fiddling the books on our weather tempature records to support climate change. Because weather stations are at different altitudes, have had different equipment, and have been at varying locations over the last century, the raw values are adjusted. The nutters are asserting that these adjustments are systematically biased.

This is quite arrant bullshit as anyone who has actually done some earth sciences (or any field science at all) knows. All instruments have quirks that have to be adjusted for and there are adjustments required to maintain a series of measurements when the instruments are moved. Eventually I suspect that the court will find the nutters case to be without foundation.

There have been several unconvincing attempts by the nutters to massage the raw data to reflect the picture that they want to see. As far as I can see, the whole point of the case is an attempt to take control of the data being fed to politicians and change it to something more palatable to the prejudices and biases of the ideologically driven nutters and their feeble-minded political friends.

Anyway, on Thursday…

NIWA today released a report reviewing its seven station temperature series, which adds to its analysis of New Zealand’s temperature trends over the past 100 years.

The report was independently peer reviewed by Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology to ensure the ideas, methods, and conclusions stood up in terms of scientific accuracy, logic, and consistency.

“We asked the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to conduct the peer review to ensure a thorough examination by an independent, internationally respected, climate science organisation”, said NIWA CEO John Morgan.

Mr Morgan confirmed that the scientists from the Bureau’s National Climate Centre concluded that the results and underlying methodology used by NIWA were sound.

But a chart is worth a thousand words.

As Gareth put it in his post at Hot-topic – “NIWA’s new NZ temperature series: plus ça change…” (also at sciblogs)

…as expected the changes from the “old” seven station series are more or less negligible. The trend over the last 100 years is identical, 0.91ºC per century, as the graph above shows. There are minor differences in some years, and larger ones at some stations, but the net effect to is confirm what we already knew: New Zealand warmed significantly over the last century. Commenting on the new report, NIWA CEO John Morgan said:

“I am not surprised that this internationally peer reviewed 2010 report of the seven station temperature series has confirmed that NIWA’s science was sound. It adds to the scientific knowledge that shows that New Zealand’s temperature has risen by about 0.9 degrees over the past 100 years”.

I’m not surprised either. But I confidently predict that the NZ Climate “Science” Coalition and Richard Treadgold will still find something to whinge about. After all, they’re trying to sue NIWA to have the original seven station series declared invalid. Now it’s been replaced — by something that looks rather similar. Which just confirms how shonky their original complaint and their subsequent silly suit really were.

Indeed. I can just imagine the whining taking place now. Personally I’d suggest that as part of their defense in the court case, NIWA take the disclosed ‘evidence’ from the nutters, mostly from Chris Treadgold, and get the same evaluation done on that. Previous attempts by this pack of illiterates are notable mostly for their basic errors of procedure.

19 comments on “NIWA vs the nutters ”

  • Comments are now closed

  1. MrSmith 1
    19 December 2010 at 8:50 am

    Great post Lprent , Hopefully another nail in Hides coffin, as for the rest of the buffoons at CSC they suffer from Denialism – a willful refusal to rationally consider the evidence and draw the appropriate conclusions.

  2. Robert Atack 2
    19 December 2010 at 8:51 am

    A tad off topic, but goes with the Homer cartoon

    Fox News Tells Reporters to Deny Earth Has Ever Warmed or Cooled

    Apparently Fox News needs to watch their own movie, Ice Age

    Whether its scientists who butcher the peer review process to support their claims that man is causing global warming, or a university statistician who plagiarizes to make a quick buck from warming critics, there seems to be remarkably little unbiased research going on in the scientific, political, and journalistic community.

    A perfect example of this bias comes courtesy of a memo sent by Fox News managing editor Bill Sammon. The email is entitled “Given the controversy over the veracity of climate change data…” and was sent out to Fox News’ anchors.

    It states:

    …we should refrain from asserting that the planet has warmed (or cooled) in any given period without IMMEDIATELY pointing out that such theories are based upon data that critics have called into question. It is not our place as journalists to assert such notions as facts, especially as this debate intensifies.

    The email was leaked by an internal source and sent to Media Matters, a progressive organization that monitors conservative media outlets.

    link

  3. joe90 3
    19 December 2010 at 9:31 am

    You left out the religious nutters and their campaign against those who would like to protect the environment.

    edit: A link to the religious nutters campaign.

    • MrSmith 3.1
      19 December 2010 at 10:23 am

      I agree Joe90 They are a huge part of problem.

      The Belief in any god strikes me as being for the simple minded , don’t ask any questions ‘just believe my son’ I am the truth………….. , but hang on I want to know the how and why , don’t ask questions, we don’t want the truth this in religion and it has nothing to do with the truth and everything to do with social control and keeping the masses in the dark , here is a quote I picked up somewhere that I like.

      “A front-page story in the Daily Progress here in Charlottesville, Va., recently described a group of people who said they had given up on politicians and were beginning to gather at gas stations to publicly pray for cheaper gasoline. These are people who are seriously hurting because they need gas to get to work and back home, and they can no longer afford it. I don’t want to laugh at their acts of desperation, but that is exactly what politicians will do, politicians who are no doubt thrilled to see people standing in parking lots talking to the sky rather than standing in their offices talking to them.

      • RedLogix 3.1.1
        19 December 2010 at 11:58 am

        don’t ask any questions ‘just believe my son’ I am the truth

        The people you have encountered who spout that sort of cartoonish nonsense are fundamentalists. They’re only related to actual religion is a fairly tangential and tragic fashion.

        • lprent 3.1.1.1
          19 December 2010 at 12:14 pm

          I’d agree. The whole question of faith is rather a closed book to me. But when I look at people you can see the difference between those who use it to enhance their life and that of others, and those who use it as a crutch or a weapon canting about others.

          One group I respect and periodically have bouts of pure envy , the other I despise and avoid.

          • Mac1 3.1.1.1.1
            19 December 2010 at 12:43 pm

            Faith in that way is a bit like a blog site.

            Some use it to enhance, others as a crutch or to cant, as you say. The Standard I respect and often envy in it the contributions of others. Yet there’s a lesson in reading the cant and hypocrisy, even if it is to firm the resolve and prepare for a big change in 2011 politically.

            We can have faith to change what needs to be, the hope that we can do so, and the charity to do it on the behalf of others as well as ourselves. Thanks, Lprent.

        • MrSmith 3.1.1.2
          19 December 2010 at 12:52 pm

          Any fundamentalists I meet RedLogix usually run for the garlic and stakes on meeting me, but I still ‘belive’ organized religion is and has been a huge problem with getting the masses to understand and take science seriously , most if not all Religion is based on ‘belief’, why because is mostly a load of make ‘believe’ dribble “god works in mysterious ways” they seem to have a analogy that fits every situation .

          Even if you know relidgion is a lie but you have been brought up to ‘belive’ there is always that little bit of doubt in the back of your mind, plus you can never have a conversation challenging someone about there beliefs it seems without offending them, this is part of problem as they just don’t want to question there ‘beliefs’ and have always just gone along with the masses (don’t rock the boat), Climate change is an attack on a lot of peoples beliefs because suddenly these scientists are saying that we the human race are having a profound affect on the planet and our environment, now this just doesn’t fit in with the stories a lot of people have been brought up to ‘believe’, wasn’t the planet created as our own little play ground to do with as we like, so what do they do they grasp at anything or anyone that says these scientists don’t know what they are talking about, because know-one likes to look stupid, but this is the age of stupid I guess isn’t it.

          • RedLogix 3.1.1.2.1
            19 December 2010 at 2:58 pm

            but I still ‘belive’ organized religion is and has been a huge problem with getting the masses to understand and take science seriously

            This is partially true. But then again you would be hugely surprised at the number of science PhD’s sitting in the pews of the Baptist Church I was regularly attending until a few years ago. (We moved town, nothing more…). It was almost a pre-condition of membership to have at least a tertiary degree.

            the stories a lot of people have been brought up to ‘believe’, wasn’t the planet created as our own little play ground to do with as we like,

            Again that would be a very literal, fundamentalist,interpretation of the Bible. Before the scientific era the idea of ‘dominion over the earth’ was most often made in analogy to the absolute dominion and rule of kings and monarchs. Given the limits of human knowledge in those times, this was a natural and commonly held paradigm.

            But in the modern era most mature believers would these days understand that phrase in a completely different way, something much closer to the idea of humans being entrusted with guardianship over the earth and all lifeforms. And that science has now given us the insights and tools to carry out such a task.

            The most logical consequence of belief in a God, is that there must be some underlying coherence and consistency in Creation. This means that science and religion must ultimately be in harmony with each other. If there is some apparent contradiction or disagreement, it can only mean that we do not yet have a full or proper understanding of one … or more likely… both.

            • MrSmith 3.1.1.2.1.1
              19 December 2010 at 4:02 pm

              I can’t agree with much of this paragraph Redlogix,

              “But in the modern era most mature believers would these days understand that phrase in a completely different way, something much closer to the idea of humans being entrusted with guardianship over the earth and all lifeforms. And that science has now given us the insights and tools to carry out such a task.”

              Humans have evolved to this point so i don’t see how we where ever entrusted to look after the earth, we just happen to be at the top of the food chain at this point. The point I have been trying to make though is that underlying religious belief is bad for us as a species in regard to climate change anyway, it just creates doubt and inaction, science is seen by many as the enemy of religion as science want’s to ask questions and find answers to those questions, religion has no answers here it just creates doubt and inaction.

              • RedLogix …
                19 December 2010 at 4:29 pm

                You are welcome to disagree Mr Smith; but consider that if we fail in this task, one way or another, the consequence will likely be the extinction of our species. On my good days I have just enough faith to dare hope that we will be able to get beyond all the doubt and inaction, to marginalise the powerful vested interests arrayed against us and agree on a common, rational course of action to prevent the unthinkable.

                Fundamentalist canon is easy to spot, because it’s all written with the linguistic trick of either/or. That’s how it gets its strength. Fundamentalist canon says this is good, that is evil; this is right, that is wrong; this gets you into Heaven, and for that you’ll go straight to Hell. Fundamentalist canon is unquestionable, unswerving, and unashamed of the violence committed in it’s name. Fundamentalist canon says My way or the highway. We are damned if we don’t go along with them. It is in essence a means of coercive power and control.

                Fundamentalism is the antithesis of religion because it is centered in the literal and the material, which is entirely the domain of science, but in contrast true religion is about ideas, abstracts such as justice and compassion, and a sense of the overwhelmingly the humbling, unknowable mysteries of worlds beyond our grasp.

                Fundamentalists are our common enemy Mr Smith.

                • Jeremy Harris …
                  19 December 2010 at 5:22 pm

                  I think some of the earliest environmentalists were religious, from memory the founder of the Sierra Club (or similar) was a Christian…

                  • prism …
                    20 December 2010 at 9:41 am

                    Jeremy H There’s a difference between being fundamentalist and being ‘religious’. Mustn’t generalise too much that’s sloppy thinking. Some fine people with good thinking have been religious and some have been doubters. Connecting fundamentalists and thinking may be an oxymoron.

                • MrSmith …
                  19 December 2010 at 6:22 pm

                  We will survive because we are selfish, but I’m afraid climate change is a bit like smoking, you want to give it up and everyone tells you it going to kill you, so you will give up tomorrow. Some will die and it won’t be there fault a lot like tobacco. I am normally an optimist but this has got me worried .
                  A book for you Redlogix if you haven’t already read it: The Origins of virtue. by Matt Ridley

  4. Mac1 4
    19 December 2010 at 10:02 am

    Did not President Reagan appoint an assistant secretary for the environment or some such who believed that the End Time was going to happen within two generations? Therefore since there was no need to protect the environment, he would allow exploitation to occur in National Parks.

  5. prism 5
    19 December 2010 at 1:03 pm

    CScienceC are termites undermining the country. They go crazy on the heady brew of their own ideas not diluted with reality. Is the graphic an x-ray of Homer Simpson-s head with a pea brain floating in space?

  6. Draco T Bastard 6
    22 December 2010 at 11:31 pm

    Well, it seems that the nutters have come out lying, prevaricating and generally foaming at the mouth.

    Our unreliable witness then makes a truly heroic leap of faith:

    “The new temperature record shows no evidence of a connection with global warming.”

    Yep, according to the CSC, NZ warming is not connected to global warming.

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  • LINDSAY MITCHELL:  Oranga Tamariki faces major upheaval under coalition agreement
     Lindsay Mitchell writes – A hugely significant gain for ACT is somewhat camouflaged by legislative jargon. Under the heading ‘Oranga Tamariki’ ACT’s coalition agreement contains the following item:   Remove Section 7AA from the Oranga Tamariki Act 1989 According to Oranga Tamariki:     “Section ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago

  • BRIAN EASTON:  Peters as Minister
    A previous column looked at Winston Peters biographically. This one takes a closer look at his record as a minister, especially his policy record. Brian Easton writes – 1990-1991: Minister of Māori Affairs. Few remember Ka Awatea as a major document on the future of Māori policy; there is ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago

  • Cathrine Dyer's guide to watching COP 28 from the bottom of a warming planet
    Is COP28 largely smoke and mirrors and a plan so cunning, you could pin a tail on it and call it a weasel? Photo: Getty ImagesTL;DR: COP28 kicks off on November 30 and up for negotiation are issues like the role of fossil fuels in the energy transition, contributions to ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago

  • Top 10 news links at 10 am for Monday, Nov 27
    PM Elect Christopher Luxon was challenged this morning on whether he would sack Adrian Orr and Andrew Coster.TL;DR: Here’s my pick of top 10 news links elsewhere at 10 am on Monday November 27, including:Signs councils are putting planning and capital spending on hold, given a lack of clear guidance ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago

  • Gordon Campbell on the new government’s policies of yesteryear
    This column expands on a Werewolf column published by Scoop on Friday Routinely, Winston Peters is described as the kingmaker who gets to decide when the centre right or the centre-left has a turn at running this country. He also plays a less heralded but equally important role as the ...
    Gordon CampbellBy lyndon
    4 days ago

  • The New Government’s Agreements
    Last Friday, almost six weeks after election day, National finally came to an agreement with ACT and NZ First to form a government. They also released the agreements between each party and looking through them, here are the things I thought were the most interesting (and often concerning) from the. ...
    Greater AucklandBy Matt L
    4 days ago

  • How many smokers will die to fund the tax cuts?
    Maori and Pasifika smoking rates are already over twice the ‘all adult’ rate. Now the revenue that generates will be used to fund National’s tax cuts. Photo: Getty ImagesTL;DR: The devil is always in the detail and it emerged over the weekend from the guts of the policy agreements National ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago

  • How the culture will change in the Beehive
    Perhaps the biggest change that will come to the Beehive as the new government settles in will be a fundamental culture change. The era of endless consultation will be over. This looks like a government that knows what it wants to do, and that means it knows what outcomes ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    4 days ago

  • No More Winnie Blues.
    So what do you think of the coalition’s decision to cancel Smokefree measures intended to stop young people, including an over representation of Māori, from taking up smoking? Enabling them to use the tax revenue to give other people a tax cut?David Cormack summed it up well:It seems not only ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago

  • 2023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #47
    A chronological listing of news and opinion articles posted on the Skeptical Science  Facebook Page during the past week: Sun, Nov 19, 2023 thru Sat, Nov 25, 2023.  Story of the Week World stands on frontline of disaster at Cop28, says UN climate chief  Exclusive: Simon Stiell says leaders must ‘stop ...
    Skeptical Science
    5 days ago

  • Some of it is mad, some of it is bad and some of it is clearly the work of people who are dangerous ...
    On announcement morning my mate texted:Typical of this cut-price, fake-deal government to announce itself on Black Friday.What a deal. We lose Kim Hill, we gain an empty, jargonising prime minister, a belligerent conspiracist, and a heartless Ayn Rand fanboy. One door closes, another gets slammed repeatedly in your face.It seems pretty ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    5 days ago

  • “Revolution” is the threat as the Māori Party smarts at coalition government’s Treaty directi...
    Buzz from the Beehive Having found no fresh announcements on the government’s official website, Point of Order turned today to Scoop’s Latest Parliament Headlines  for its buzz. This provided us with evidence that the Māori Party has been soured by the the coalition agreement announced yesterday by the new PM. “Soured” ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    5 days ago

  • The Good, the Bad, and the even Worse.
    Yesterday the trio that will lead our country unveiled their vision for New Zealand.Seymour looking surprisingly statesmanlike, refusing to rise to barbs about his previous comments on Winston Peters. Almost as if they had just been slapstick for the crowd.Winston was mostly focussed on settling scores with the media, making ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    6 days ago

  • When it Comes to Palestine – Free Speech is Under Threat
    Hi,Thanks for getting amongst Mister Organ on digital — thanks to you, we hit the #1 doc spot on iTunes this week. This response goes a long way to helping us break even.I feel good about that. Other things — not so much.New Zealand finally has a new government, and ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    6 days ago

  • Thank you Captain Luxon. Was that a landing, or were we shot down?
    Hello! Here comes the Saturday edition of More Than A Feilding, catching you up on the past week’s editions.Also in More Than A FeildingFriday The unboxing And so this is Friday and what have we gone and done to ourselves?In the same way that a Christmas present can look lovely under the ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    6 days ago

  • Cans of Worms.
    “And there’ll be no shortage of ‘events’ to test Luxon’s political skills. David Seymour wants a referendum on the Treaty. Winston wants a Royal Commission of Inquiry into Labour’s handling of the Covid crisis. Talk about cans of worms!”LAURIE AND LES were very fond of their local. It was nothing ...
    Bowalley Road
    6 days ago

  • Disinformation campaigns are undermining democracy. Here’s how we can fight back
    This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article. Misinformation is debated everywhere and has justifiably sparked concerns. It can polarise the public, reduce health-protective behaviours such as mask wearing and vaccination, and erode trust in science. Much of misinformation is spread not ...
    Skeptical Science
    6 days ago

  • Peters as Minister
    A previous column looked at Winston Peters biographically. This one takes a closer look at his record as a minister, especially his policy record.1990-1991: Minister of Māori Affairs. Few remember Ka Awatea as a major document on the future of Māori policy; there is not even an entry in Wikipedia. ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    6 days ago

  • The New Government: 2023 Edition
    So New Zealand has a brand-spanking new right-wing government. Not just any new government either. A formal majority coalition, of the sort last seen in 1996-1998 (our governmental arrangements for the past quarter of a century have been varying flavours of minority coalition or single-party minority, with great emphasis ...
    A Phuulish FellowBy strda221
    6 days ago

  • The unboxing
    And so this is Friday and what have we gone and done to ourselves?In the same way that a Christmas present can look lovely under the tree with its gold ribbon but can turn out to be nothing more than a big box holding a voucher for socks, so it ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    6 days ago

  • A cruel, vicious, nasty government
    So, after weeks of negotiations, we finally have a government, with a three-party cabinet and a time-sharing deputy PM arrangement. Newsroom's Marc Daalder has put the various coalition documents online, and I've been reading through them. A few things stand out: Luxon doesn't want to do any work, ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago

  • Hurrah – we have a new government (National, ACT and New Zealand First commit “to deliver for al...
    Buzz from the Beehive Sorry, there has been  no fresh news on the government’s official website since the caretaker trade minister’s press statement about the European Parliament vote on the NZ-EU Free Trade Agreement. But the capital is abuzz with news – and media comment is quickly flowing – after ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago

  • Christopher Luxon – NZ PM #42.
    Nothing says strong and stable like having your government announcement delayed by a day because one of your deputies wants to remind everyone, but mostly you, who wears the trousers. It was all a bit embarrassing yesterday with the parties descending on Wellington before pulling out of proceedings. There are ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    6 days ago

  • Coalition Government details policies & ministers
    Winston Peters will be Deputy PM for the first half of the Coalition Government’s three-year term, with David Seymour being Deputy PM for the second half. Photo montage by Lynn Grieveson for The KākāTL;DR: PM-Elect Christopher Luxon has announced the formation of a joint National-ACT-NZ First coalition Government with a ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago

  • “Old Coat” by Peter, Paul & Mary.
     THERE ARE SOME SONGS that seem to come from a place that is at once in and out of the world. Written by men and women who, for a brief moment, are granted access to that strange, collective compendium of human experience that comes from, and belongs to, all the ...
    Bowalley Road
    6 days ago

  • Weekly Roundup 23-November-2023
    It’s Friday again! Maybe today we’ll finally have a government again. Roll into the weekend with some of the articles that caught our attention this week. And as always, feel free to add your links and observations in the comments. This Week in Greater Auckland On Monday Matt ...
    Greater AucklandBy Greater Auckland
    7 days ago

  • Geoffrey Miller: New Zealand’s strategy for COP28 in Dubai
    The COP28 countdown is on. Over 100 world leaders are expected to attend this year’s UN Climate Change Conference in in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which starts next Thursday. Among the VIPs confirmed for the Dubai summit are the UK’s Rishi Sunak and Brazil’s Lula da Silva – along ...
    Democracy ProjectBy Geoffrey Miller
    7 days ago

  • Coalition talks: a timeline
    Media demand to know why a coalition government has yet to be formed. ...
    My ThinksBy boonman
    7 days ago

  • The Hoon around the week to Nov 24
    Luxon was no doubt relieved to be able to announce a coalition agreement has been reached, but we still have to wait to hear the detail. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / Getty ImagesTL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    7 days ago

  • Passing Things Down.
    Keeping The Past Alive: The durability of Commando comics testifies to the extended nature of the generational passing down of the images, music, and ideology of the Second World War. It has remained fixed in the Baby Boomers’ consciousness as “The Good War”: the conflict in which, to a far ...
    Bowalley Road
    7 days ago

  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #47 2023
    Open access notables How warped are we by fossil fuel dependency? Despite Russia's invasion of Ukraine, 35-40 million cubic meters per day of Russian natural gas are piped across Ukraine for European consumption every single day, right now. In order to secure European cooperation against Russian aggression, Ukraine must help to ...
    Skeptical Science
    1 week ago

  • New Zealand welcomes European Parliament vote on the NZ-EU Free Trade Agreement
    A significant milestone in ratifying the NZ-EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA) was reached last night, with 524 of the 705 member European Parliament voting in favour to approve the agreement. “I’m delighted to hear of the successful vote to approve the NZ-EU FTA in the European Parliament overnight. This is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Further humanitarian support for Gaza, the West Bank and Israel
    The Government is contributing a further $5 million to support the response to urgent humanitarian needs in Gaza, the West Bank and Israel, bringing New Zealand’s total contribution to the humanitarian response so far to $10 million. “New Zealand is deeply saddened by the loss of civilian life and the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago

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