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No rest for team Brown

Written By: - Date published: 12:52 pm, October 4th, 2010 - 17 comments
Categories: auckland supercity, john banks, len brown, local government, polls - Tags: ,

According to the weekend headlines:

It’s Brown for Supermayor, by a landslide

Len Brown is set to win the Auckland mayoralty by a landslide, unless John Banks can rally his half-hearted supporters to vote in the final days. A new Herald on Sunday-Phoenix poll shows the Manukau mayor’s South Auckland supporters have turned out in unprecedented numbers, giving him 56 per cent support among those who say they have already voted. …

Brown’s supporters appear to have voted early, giving him a big lead. The poll indicates that Banks has won only 33 per cent of the votes cast so far, but he can still theoretically close the gap. … Yesterday afternoon, Banks said his campaign team was preparing for a final push to turn out voters, with the last week “absolutely crucial” to the result. There had been a “very poor turnout so far”, and he hoped to see at least 45 per cent of eligible voter return their ballots. Banks insisted his own polling showed him “neck-and-neck” with Brown.

and…

Banks Failing To Carry National Vote, Auckland And Business

The latest HorizonPoll tracking survey finds Len Brown continuing to gain over John Banks in the Auckland super city Mayoralty race.

Among those who have already voted, Brown’s lead over Banks has increased from 27% to a 32%, and he leads Banks by 40% to 18% among those who have yet to vote (37% and 21% last week). Applying the maximum margin of error in Banks’ favour, Brown would still have a 20% lead.

All well and good, but there should be no complacency for Brown voters. Reporting of the Phoenix poll makes it clear that early votes are favouring Brown — but the late votes could change the picture. The HorizonPoll is not (despite the name) a poll at all, it is an online survey of volunteer “panellists” — I don’t believe in the methodology or the figures. Remember that it was just last week that we were being told that this race was “too close to call”.

So – here’s hoping that the good news headlines don’t create a self-defeating complacency among Brown voters. If you’re a SuperCity voter, make sure you get your papers in on time! And team Brown needs to keep up the hard work for a few more days. No complacency, no triumphalism, it ain’t over ’til it’s over.

17 comments on “No rest for team Brown”

  1. ianmac 1

    I rather wondered if those headlines were designed to sting the right leaning Banks crowd into action? A cunning Baldrick plan!

    • Janice 1.1

      I had thought the same thing. Banks putting the frighteners on his “supporters”?

    • I wondered the same. Did the Herald want to make Len’s backers complacent and at the same time stir the conservatives into action? Especially after having said it was too close to call for so long the change in attitude was jarring.

      Of course this could have the opposite effect and stir those wanting to support a winner to change to Len and to cast the Banks group into further despair.

      We will find out this Saturday.

      Of particular interest to me will be the performance of C&R candidates. There is the possibility that they could have a very bad time on the weekend. Mt Albert Mt Roskill and Whau could be close, Orakei may be the subject of a boilover, Waitemata should be Mike Lee’s, and out west they do not look like they have a chance. The North Shore is a mess and it may be that only in Puketapapa do they have a good chance.

      Could this be the beginning of the end for C&R?

      • G8 1.2.1

        Yes put a tail on it….and call it the end of C&R.

        I think team Brown will be working hard out up until Saturday lunch time.

        Kiwis like to back winners so I think the plan will back fire with undecided voters supporting Brown – But they still have to vote.

  2. Nick K 2

    These “polls” aren’t worth printing and using as loo paper.

    Indeed Micky, Saturday will be very interesting. The council make-up and the mayor that will “lead” it/them will be the most fascinating. It could well be a hotch-potch of lefties, righties and so-called “independents”, with either Brown or Banks (my view is that Banks will win), having to bring it all together.

    Despite the result, I think on Sunday Aucklanders should be asking for (demanding?) National, Labour, ACT & Greens to campaign as parties in 2013. That would at least identify the philosophies to the voters, who, and let’s be honest about this, don’t have a clue who to vote for. That is a blight on democracy in my view. People may argue that national politics doesn’t belong in local government, but I’d argue to get cohesion, action and discipline it is precisely what is needed. I don’t really care whether it’s the Left or the Right who win (although I prefer the Right to), this 28% turnout thingy has to end. No one has a mandate on 35% of 28% (for example).

    • Bunji 2.1

      It could be a lot less than 35% (of 28%) for the councillors and the boards thanks to Rodney’s FPP instead of STV. I have 6 local board people to vote for – with the massive split of votes between the many candidates I’ll be surprised if the 6th most popular board member (or indeed 7th or 8th if 1 or 2 get voted to Council) gets more than a few %.

      I think Brown will win (although, yes, no room for complacency!), and the interesting mix will be the blend of councillors. Here even more the message must be no complacency for Team Brown – he will (hopefully) only be 1 man at the table – he needs a good team.

  3. Nick K 3

    Yes, Bunji, it is a lottery and elections should not be decided like this.

    On your STV comment:

    I have an amendment in front of the House to this effect, and I encourage all other parties to consider supporting it, including ACT and the Honourable Minister Rodney Hide – who, as he has just told the House this morning, actually supports STV himself.

    From:

    http://www.greens.org.nz/speeches/local-government-auckland-council-bill-amendment-stv-voting-system

  4. rich 4

    The FPP electoral systems prevents the national parties from campaigning in Auckland (as they do, half heartedly in the STV elections in Wellington). They are forced into coalition to avoid splitting the vote.

    City Vision are a semi-formal coalition of Labour. Greens and Alliance (!). I believe their website states this. CitRats are NACT, but they aren’t as overt.

  5. Evidence of a late surge today in the returns. Orakei’s percentrage increased by 2.4% to 31.3, Otara’s by 1.8% to 32.4%. Hang in there Orara …

  6. Nick K 6

    I know that rich, but joe voter wouldn’t have a clue, that’s my concern.

  7. BLiP 7

    TV3 News continues to push the “game over” meme . . . anyone with any relatives, friends, colleagues, acquaintances in Auckland, get on the phone now.

    • Roger 7.1

      Agreed, I saw their shameful piece of “news” as well. I wonder if the costs of broadcasting that item should be added to John Bank’s campaign spending.

  8. gobsmacked 8

    I’ve just got around to filling in my voting paper, will post it tomorrow. One vote for Brown, from Banks’ Auckland City.

  9. Gina 9

    This sort of media interferance in general elections is illegal while voting is in progress.

    I thought straight away that this is the influence of big business interests out to subvert the supercity election. These polls and articles could be right but they could also have a massive effect on the eventual election result.

    We even had Mr Key on the telly talking about it. Of course he blames the supercity on Act but I can tell ya a project of this magnitude would not be enacted without the full support of National.

    Act are the fall guys for everything unpopular the Nats secretly want to do. And then Key can say we need to get rid of MMP to stop them. And Kiwis are falling for it. Ha how dumb are kiwi’s. A good salesman directed by Crosby Textor coupled with a compliant media and we are suckers or just too lazy to look further.

  10. Gina 10

    I have been on the phone to our news organisations telling them that it is not on to try and influence an election while voting is still in progress.

    This would be illegal in a gerneral election I think. It may be illegal in this election. No matter who wins someone should take a look at the legality of whats going on.

  11. Gina 11

    Have you seen the add banner from Telstra Clear “Feet Up Mr Joyce”. Its displaying on “The Standard” as I speak. I called Telstra the other day and told them I would never use Telstra because of their obvious campaigning for the National Party.

    I put it to Telstra that this sort of political advertising would piss off non National Party voters and they would thus loose a lot of customers about 40% minimum..

    The people behind this campaign should be sacked because they are loosing Telstra a lot of customers.

  12. randal 12

    I like the comment I heard on rnz last week.
    “I will vote for len brown because he is capable of doing more than riding a motorbikee.”
    go Len

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