According to the weekend headlines:
It’s Brown for Supermayor, by a landslide
Len Brown is set to win the Auckland mayoralty by a landslide, unless John Banks can rally his half-hearted supporters to vote in the final days. A new Herald on Sunday-Phoenix poll shows the Manukau mayor’s South Auckland supporters have turned out in unprecedented numbers, giving him 56 per cent support among those who say they have already voted. …
Brown’s supporters appear to have voted early, giving him a big lead. The poll indicates that Banks has won only 33 per cent of the votes cast so far, but he can still theoretically close the gap. … Yesterday afternoon, Banks said his campaign team was preparing for a final push to turn out voters, with the last week “absolutely crucial” to the result. There had been a “very poor turnout so far”, and he hoped to see at least 45 per cent of eligible voter return their ballots. Banks insisted his own polling showed him “neck-and-neck” with Brown.
Banks Failing To Carry National Vote, Auckland And Business
The latest HorizonPoll tracking survey finds Len Brown continuing to gain over John Banks in the Auckland super city Mayoralty race.
Among those who have already voted, Brown’s lead over Banks has increased from 27% to a 32%, and he leads Banks by 40% to 18% among those who have yet to vote (37% and 21% last week). Applying the maximum margin of error in Banks’ favour, Brown would still have a 20% lead.
All well and good, but there should be no complacency for Brown voters. Reporting of the Phoenix poll makes it clear that early votes are favouring Brown — but the late votes could change the picture. The HorizonPoll is not (despite the name) a poll at all, it is an online survey of volunteer “panellists” — I don’t believe in the methodology or the figures. Remember that it was just last week that we were being told that this race was “too close to call”.
So – here’s hoping that the good news headlines don’t create a self-defeating complacency among Brown voters. If you’re a SuperCity voter, make sure you get your papers in on time! And team Brown needs to keep up the hard work for a few more days. No complacency, no triumphalism, it ain’t over ’til it’s over.