Not with a bang but a whimper

Written By: - Date published: 9:12 am, May 27th, 2012 - 128 comments
Categories: climate change, Media - Tags: ,

Bad news from Bonn:

Bonn climate talks end in discord and disappointment

Climate crisis is not caused by lack of options and solutions, but lack of political action, says Greenpeace spokeswoman

The latest round of international climate change talks finished on Friday in discord and disappointment, with some participants concerned that important progress made last year was being unpicked.

At the talks, countries were supposed to set out a workplan on negotiations that should result in a new global climate treaty, to be drafted by the end of 2015 and to come into force in 2020. But participants told the Guardian they were downbeat, disappointed and frustrated that the decision to work on a new treaty – reached after marathon late-running talks last December in Durban – was being questioned.

China and India, both rapidly growing economies with an increasing share of global emissions, have tried to delay talks on such a treaty. Instead of a workplan for the next three years to achieve the objective of a new pact, governments have only managed to draw up a partial agenda. “It’s incredibly frustrating to have achieved so little,” said one developed country participant. “We’re stepping backwards, not forwards.” …

The reasons why this is incredibly bad news are, of course, obvious to anyone except climate change deniers.

But what I find almost as depressing is the total absence of media coverage in NZ. Did you know the talks were on? 3 News had an AP piece a few days ago, but apart from that, there was pretty much nothing. Did you know the talks had failed? At time of writing I see zero NZ coverage. None. Nada. It’s only the most important story in the world. Instead The Herald is leading with a story about a rescued surfer, and Stuff with a piece on care for the elderly. Similar stuff on the TVNZ and 3 News sites. Re the subject of the post, I’d say Elliot had it right.

128 comments on “Not with a bang but a whimper ”

  1. Jimmie 1

    I’m sorry to say it but climate change is yesterdays news. More people are figuring out that it was an agenda pushed by scientists whose end goal was chasing research $$$ in return for trying to stop ‘the end of the world’ scenarios.

    It’s time for well meaning folk like yourself to put climate change into the same little box that ozone holes & overpopulation scares have been put into.

    With most of the world trying to stop their economies contracting, the thoughts of trying to get countries to agree to whack their folk with more taxes in the name of the environment just was never gonna work.

    Give it a rest, go take a happy pill, coz the World aint coming to an end due to global warming…..there feel better all ready?

    • lprent 1.1

      I guess that we have an idiot who has never bothered to learn enough to understand any of the issues he just referred to in either science or economics. Hell, he is so stupid that he prefers to put his own spin on what people are worried about rather than actually reading what they say. That would involve him thinking – something that he is clearly not capable of.

      Queue up another whine about politeness from someone who cares more about his pathetic ego by making unsubstantiated assertions than actually offering up any argument. But I merely followed his lead of self-evidient assertions – but concentrated on the individual in front of me.

      I rather suspect that even the skeptics and maybe even a few deniers will (secretly) support my view on this dumbarse troll.

      Jimmie – a ‘person’ who is so self obsessed that he doesn’t even bother to stick his head in the sand like ostrich. Instead he sticks his head up his arse in case he sees anything he doesn’t like and where the smell is more familiar.

      • bbfloyd 1.1.1


      • muzza 1.1.2

        Well given that those factions who partake in such events are completely controlled for the most part in any case (think politicians, scientists, green peace et al) , it really only means that the financial cartels are seriously not finished bankrupting/polluting/destroying the planet just yet, and need to make sure that India and China etc continue to “grow”.

        You see you have to create an environment where people are begging for the solutions you want them to accept, and we are not quite there yet, or we would have has consensus by now!

        There are presently much more pressing issues for the “decision makers” than this, like holding their financial system together, thats why its not being covered, because the media arms, are “told” not to!

        But the world will get its global climate treaty, but not until such time as the decision makers say so, it wont be what those who see it as a good thing will have expected though, thats my prediction.

        Its no harder picking this stuff, than it is picking which articles the MSM are going to run with, and which way the financial markets will move….unless you can’t get your head around the core problems, then of course its s total mystery to people!

        Most cant, which is why you get abuse as a reaction!

        • Oscar

          I could comment at length on the rich irony of the failed talks, however I won’t. I will simply remain mute until the snows come again for Wellington and sit back and say ITYS.

          In reality, worrying about CO2 emissions is nothing compared to the weakening magnetosphere of this blue ball we call home.

          No magnetosphere + X-Class solar flare = Mass Extinction. So good bye to the wankers and climate change believers. Your CO2 emission reduction schemes won’t help you then.

          As for any pithy remarks to come from people who study Earth Science a hundred decades ago, science has moved on and there is now strong corroborating evidence that our magnetic fields flip rather quickly when they do, and precede ELEs.

      • Dan 1.1.3

        [Potty mouth, homophobia, we don’t need you here Dan. Take a month off. — r0b]

    • Dr Terry 1.2

      Such bald complacency spells out exactly why catastrophe threatens.

      • Dr Terry 1.2.1

        Reply above intended for Jimmie (and his like).

        • Reagan Cline

          Jimmie’s lasr two paragraphs are true, aren’t they ?

          Climate change is a long term process and the outcomes are not certain enough to predict definite catastrophe.

          Most people have been earbashed enough by now to at leasy think about reducing use of internal combustion engines fuelled with fossil fuel and buying plastic.

          At least one Auckland primar school is awarding stickers for green behaviours, the green party vote is increasing, so NZers might eventually do more greeen stuff like walk, turn the light off, open the window a fraction and do without a dehumidifier, bring food home in a string bag etc etc etc

          So fucking boring !!!

          Most people will not change because thery have more important things to think about and doomsday is still way ou of sight.

          Think global act lccal. Small is beautiful.

  2. Richard Christie 2

    “More people are figuring out that it was an agenda pushed by scientists whose end goal was chasing research $$$ in return for trying to stop ‘the end of the world’ scenarios.”

    Tell us how it’s done Jimmie.

    Tell us how the the konspiracy mind meld actually manipulates every single scientific academy on the planet.
    Tell us how it intimidates several thousand scientists dispersed across the globe, and all their families into silence about the sekrit agenda. Who is in charge? Surely there must be a Dr Evil in charge, how exactly does he/she manage it?

    Please tell us.

    • Jimmie 2.1

      Lol. It’s not that hard to do (And I never said conspiracy did I?). It’s called the sheep or band wagon mentality.

      When one sheep runs through a gate to a new paddock of grass the rest of the flock see it and they all run through as well. (think grass = easy public research$$$)

      You don’t think the esteemed scientists around the world are incapable of such a phenomenon?

      Look at their recent history: We were told in the 1980’s that the world was going to starve to death and that the Ethiopian famine of the mid 80’s was but a fore runner as the world could not produce enough food to feed itself – turned out to be a load crap as with advances in agri-science turns out even with an ever increasing population food production can increase as well – quite comfortably.

      The next band wagon was the Ozone holes – they were going to increase in size until everyone on the planet got fried or cooked. So all the old fridges got banned, new refrigeration gases were developed.

      No one stopped to ask how fridges in major cities round the world would cause Ozone holes above the poles. No it was much easier to accept public $$$ to ‘research’ a non existent problem. Well guess what the old fridges are long gone, the ozone holes are still there neither increasing or decreasing to any great extent and the fringe of science has gone onto its new ‘baby’ AGW.

      Mark my words within 5 years ‘AGW’ would have run its course and something else will be the next environmental armageddon.

      • lprent 2.1.1

        So you are confirming that you never bothered to find out anything about the science of CFC’s and O3? Or read any of the materials on the observations on UV radiation?

        I guess your arse must be a comfortable womb surrogate.

        Incidentally, you do realize that the first conferences by politicians on climate change happened when Margret Thatcher attended one as britians PM. Idiots like yourself have been predicting its dissolution as a topic for discussion in 5 years ever since then.

      • Colonial Viper 2.1.2

        Mark my words within 5 years ‘AGW’ would have run its course and something else will be the next environmental armageddon.

        AGW will still be progressing and changing our climate in 5 years time.

        But I agree that it won’t be the most pressing issue then. Global energy depletion will be.

  3. Matthew Hooton 3

    Why are you linking to some nutter quoted in a 2009 Independent story talking about “mass extinction of almost all life … reduc[ing] humanity to a few struggling groups of embattled survivors clinging to life near the poles,” “billions of people find[ing] themselves in areas of the planet which are essentially uninhabitable,” “hundreds of millions … forced to move inland due to rapidly-rising seas” and so forth?

    What the IPCC says is that over 100 years, the worst case scenario is that temperatures might rise by 2.4 – 6.4 degress which could cause average sea level rises of 26 – 59 cm, which would cause some negative impacts but not the ones described above. The midpoint scenarios are much less than 6.4 cm and 59 cm. (See )

    What happened to the scienfic consensus? You seem to be smearing people at one end of the scientific bell curve as “deniers” but then linking approvingly to someone else at the other end of the scientific bell curve who could equally be called a “denier” of the scientific consensus.

    • Colonial Viper 3.1

      The next band wagon was the Ozone holes – they were going to increase in size until everyone on the planet got fried or cooked. So all the old fridges got banned, new refrigeration gases were developed.

      The world acted, technology was put in place, old refrigerants banned and new chemicals and methods implemented.

      Things were done and change achieved.

      On the other side. You’re fighting against change and trying to make sure nothing is achieved.

      • Colonial Viper 3.1.1

        Whoops this was a reply to jimmie

      • Poission 3.1.2

        The next band wagon was the Ozone holes

        The ozone anomalies are very real and have cumulative effects on environmental systems and cllimate,the open problem is what are the constraints on say SH weather systems by the implementation of the montreal protocol.

        There are two UN bodies the IPCC and the UNEP/WMO that produce reports,the latter (2011) suggests that

        Observations and model simulations show that the Antarctic ozone hole caused much of the observed southward shift of the Southern Hemisphere middle latitude jet in the troposphere during summer since 1980. The horizontal structure, seasonality, and amplitude of the observed trends in the Southern Hemisphere tropospheric jet are only reproducible in climate models forced with Antarctic ozone depletion. The southward shift in the tropospheric jet extends to the surface of the Earth and is linked dynamically to the ozone hole induced strengthening of the Southern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex.

        The southward shift of the Southern Hemisphere tropospheric jet due to the ozone hole has been linked to a range of observed climate trends over Southern Hemisphere mid and high latitudes during summer.

        Because of this shift, the ozone hole has contributed to robust summertime trends in surface winds, warming over the Antarctic Peninsula, and cooling over the high plateau. Other impacts of the ozone hole on surface climate have been investigated but have yet to be fully quantified. These include observed increases in sea ice area averaged around Antarctica; a southward shift of the Southern Hemisphere storm track and associated precipitation; warming of the subsurface Southern Ocean at depths up to several hundred meters; and decreases of carbon uptake over the Southern Ocean.

        As the reversal of the OH has the property of cancelling climatic conditions to some extent in the SH summertime we can say that the MP did work.

        • Oscar

          Only issue with the Holes is that there is now doubt as to whether CFCs even caused said holes, or if the holes are a naturally occurring phenomenon. After all, it wasn’t until the 1970s that the holes were found to exist and science did as science does – made up a problem to fit the question.

    • lprent 3.2

      The IPCC takes the approach in the science sections that they use the most conservative confirmed knowledge from the time that a particular report is being assembled. It is what is required for advising governments. In the case of IPCC 4 that cutoff was at about 2003. So they left out vast ranges of material because they were hypotheses rather than having confirming data.

      The study of climate change is pretty new and rapidly evolving. It was a unconfirmed interesting idea 30 years ago when I was doing my earth sciences degree. That was about the time that the first geo observation satellites were picking up enough global data to confirm it as something to look at.

      It has been confirmed as being a probable global disaster since the early 90’s and still subject to a lot of upwards refinement as information is gained. The data is still incoming because we’re talking about a fast geological process – but that still takes decades to measure.

      IPCC 5 will almost certainly confirm that the IPCC 4 report’s worst case is better than the IPCC5’s best case. You just reiterated the median case from IPCC4’s decade old report. It is a meaningless appeal to authority where if you read the IPCC4 preface, they happily state that it is merely a snapshot from a decade ago..

      You are also looking a gross physical changes, which really aren’t the danger in the short term. The big danger is that even small changes in heat balances cause major shifts in weather patterns. Climate is after all, just a way for differences in energy to equalize. Ask any farmer what happens to food production when weather doesn’t follow patterns.

      Climate change is going to cause major disruptions in food production, storage, and distribution. It will happen as we start to hit peak population and as cheap fuels become a thing of the past. Even you can figure out probable consequences..

      • Matthew Hooton 3.2.1

        In fact, each IPCC report has forecast a LOWER maximum temperature and sea-level rise than the one before. For example, the third AR report in 2001 forecast a sea-level increase of up to 70cm. This was cut to 59cm in AR4 in 20-7. In 2014, I expect this will continue, with AR5 forecasting lower maximum rises than AR4 in 2007. We’ll know in two years. But whichever way the 59cm maximum moves, I still don’t see why the writer here links to a nutter making statements every bit outside the consensus as might be expected from, say, ExxonMobil.

        • Kotahi Tane Huna

          In fact, IPCC forecasts are being shown up as too conservative across a range of observations.

          • Matthew Hooton

            What possible observations since the 2007 IPPC AR4 report could possibly have shown its forecasts to be too conservative? Since 2007, observed temperature has been broadly stable with no warming trend at all ( see ) so it is diffcult to see that AR4, which projected warming, could be “too conservative”. You must be referring to observations other than temperature, but I am not sure that, say, sea levels have been observed to have risen faster than forecast by the IPCC in 2007.

            • Kotahi Tane Huna

              Off the top of my head, minimum Arctic sea-ice extent, Greenland ice-sheet melt. It’s hardly surprising though, given the general “caution” that goes into preparing their reports.

              This article from Stefan Rahmstorf discusses issues with sea-level predictions.

              First, although the temperature scenarios of IPCC project a maximum warming of 6.4 ºC (Table SPM3), the upper limit of sea level rise has been computed for a warming of only 5.2 ºC – which reduced the estimate by about 15 cm. Second, the IPCC chose to compute sea level rise up to the year 2095 rather than 2100 – just to cut off another 5 cm. Worse, the IPCC report shows that over the past 40 years, sea level has in fact risen 50% more than predicted by its models – yet these same models are used uncorrected to predict the future! And finally, the future projections assume that the Antarctic ice sheet gains mass, thus lowering sea level, rather at odds with past ice sheet behaviour.**

              Some scientists within IPCC warned early that all this could lead to a credibility problem, but the IPCC decided to go ahead anyway.

              Nobody cared about this.

              I mention this because there is a lesson in it. IPCC would never have published an implausibly high 3 meter upper limit like this, but it did not hesitate with the implausibly low 59 cm. That is because within the IPCC culture, being “alarmist” is bad and being “conservative” (i.e. underestimating the potential severity of things) is good.

            • lprent

              Since 2007, observed temperature has been broadly stable with no warming trend at all..

              Another idiot response culled from data cherry pickers.

              Climate has many short-term cyclic patterns. Apart from the yearly cycles, the strongest ones happen over about a decade. Trying to look at a measurement over 3-4 years (2008-2011) is completely meaningless for anyone who has even a modicum of science because you’re as likely to be looking at a downside of a cycle. So whenever anyone gives you some crap based on few years in any earth sciences you can generally expect that they are trying to con you.

              Clearly any idea of actual science or statistical validity is something that PR people lack. And it appears that you are a sucker for a good story as well.

              • Matthew Hooton

                I agree with you, so what could have changed since 2007 that could lead people to insist the IPCC recommendations of that year so dramatically understated the problem?

              • Richard Christie

                Another idiot response culled from data cherry pickers.

                and I’m concerned that such breathtaking scientific illiteracy is in all likelihood being whispered in the ears of elected representatives by spin doctors and political analysts.

        • lprent

          For example, the third AR report in 2001 forecast a sea-level increase of up to 70cm. This was cut to 59cm in AR4 in 20-7. In 2014, I expect this will continue, with AR5 forecasting lower maximum rises than AR4 in 2007.

          Sea level rise is the least of the problems from climate change (did you read my pointed remarks about that?).

          And in any case I’m pretty sure that you’re incorrect. I can’t be bothered looking it up and linking because it is a myth I have seen several times before. There are several scenarios given (not just one as you’re implying) based on different possible ranges of data and theories. It is difficult to compare one to another as you’re doing because the premises change.

          What I think you are regurgitating (probably from that idiot meteorologist Watts) is what happens when people cherry-pick the predictions from one scenario and compare them with a quite different scenario in a different report.

          But even a shift downwards wouldn’t surprise me. Quite simply the amount of information available changes the models. AR4 deliberately left out much of the ice melting that was estimated in the previous report because it was considered to be have insufficient information on melt rates in Antarctica and Greenland. That research has been done now especially in the Antarctica peninsula and Greenland for current day, and in the West Antarticia icesheet from the geological past. It will be in AR5.

          But as I said – sealevel rise is a nice simplistic measure for idiots to cling to. Apart from people who own coastal properties it isn’t a major issue unless the cold currents around Antarctica shift. The real issue is weather pattern changes

      • Jackal 3.2.2

        There is scientific consensus on climate change, the only disagreement is to what extent it will develop. It’s also worth noting again that the current changes far outstrip previous predictions.

        It is well within the range of scientific predictions for there to be a global rise in sea levels of 1 metre by 2100, which would have a devastating effect on much of New Zealand. Despite this clear and present danger, National has recently dropped a proposal that would require councils to meet a national standard when planning for sea level rise of between 50 to 80 centimetres by the end of the century. They aren’t even preparing at all.

        It’s interesting that Hooten criticizes information from 2009 while linking to a report from 2007. Here is what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported (PDF) this year:

        It is very likely that mean sea level rise will contribute to upward trends in extreme coastal high water levels in the future. There is high confidence that locations currently experiencing adverse impacts such as coastal erosion and inundation will continue to do so in the future due to increasing sea levels, all other contributing factors being equal. The very likely contribution of mean sea level rise to increased extreme coastal high water levels, coupled with the likely increase in tropical cyclone maximum wind speed, is a specific issue for tropical small island states.

        There is high confidence that changes in heat waves, glacial retreat, and/or permafrost degradation will affect high mountain phenomena such as slope instabilities, movements of mass, and glacial lake outburst floods. There is also high confidence that changes in heavy precipitation will affect landslides in some regions.


        Extremes sometimes result from the interactions between two unrelated geophysical phenomena such as a moderate storm surge coinciding with an extreme spring tide, as in the most catastrophic UK storm surge flood of the past 500 years in 1607 (Horsburgh and Horritt, 2006). Climate change may alter both the frequency of extreme surges and cause gradual sea level rise, compounding such future extreme floods (see Sections 3.5.3 and 3.5.5).

        So it’s not just the increase in sea levels, it’s a combination effect that will cause problems. I guess such things are beyond the comprehension level of most climate change deniers though… I give you exhibit A.

        • Matthew Hooton

          Jackal – you may be a bit out of date with your claim of 1m sea-level rises. That was the worst case in the first IPCC Assessment Report in 1990 (AR1) – see

          As you will see from that report, the scientific consensus at that time was for “a sea-level rise of about 0.3-0.5 m by 2050 and about 1 m by 2100” but since then the IPCC has cut this back in every subsequent Assessment Report with the last Assessment Report, published in 2007, forecasting a sea-level rise of 0.18-0.59m by 2100 (actually 2095 compared with 1980-1999).

          So, interestingly enough, since the Rio conference twenty years ago, the extent of sea-level change forecast by the IPCC has nearly halved.

          • Colonial Viper

            Only two years ago, the UN’s Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said in its Fourth Assessment Report, or AR4, that the worst-case prediction for global sea-level rise was 59cm by 2100. But the scientists in Copenhagen suggested that the 2007 report was a drastic underestimation of the problem, and that oceans were likely to rise twice as fast.


          • Jackal

            I hate to burst your bubble Matthew Hooton, being that you seem so certain of your claims, but the IPCC projections do not take into account uncertainties in climate-carbon cycle feedbacks nor do they include the full effects of changes in ice sheet flow melt.

            The IPCC has not projected an upper level, and the projections you’ve quoted do not take into account all the known factors involved. So unless you can show that anthropomorphic climate change is not causing increased ice flow melt (which you cannot) a 1 metre increase in sea levels is well within the current scientific projections.

            • Matthew Hooton

              Well done for cutting and pasting from wikipedia, but I think I’ll treat the IPCC reports as more likely to be authoritative. And the overall trend in these over 20 years is an increase in certainty that AGW is happening, a narrowing of the range of projected impacts and a decrease in the upper limits.

              • Jackal

                Then you should really read what the IPCC states: “Model-based range excluding future rapid dynamical changes in ice flow.” Being that scientists have observed an acceleration in ice flow rate since 2007, how can you claim that you’re using the “extreme end of the IPCC’s worst case scenario” when they do not take into account all the known factors involved?

                You have not provided the “extreme end of the IPCC’s worst case scenario” Matthew Hooton because they do not provide one. You’ve provided a range that does not include all the factors involved. It should therefore not be waived around as gospel that there’s no reason to have concern about the effects of anthropomorphic climate change.

    • Richard Christie 3.3

      “What happened to the scienfic consensus? You seem to be smearing people at one end of the scientific bell curve as “deniers” but then linking approvingly to someone else at the other end of the scientific bell curve who could equally be called a “denier” of the scientific consensus.” – M Hooton


    • bbfloyd 3.4

      Do you never go outside without a suit on mattie? have you never felt the sun burning on your skin quite unlike it ever did when i was a child? Are you that tied to your idealogical antasies that you have become incapable of even noticing your immediate environment changing more each year?

      i pity the fools that can’t see the truth in front of them… i despise the jackal that refuses to acknowledge the same reality because it is inconvenient…..

    • r0b 3.5

      Matthew – there’s a graph you should consider – I can’t find it until I get home late tonight, but will try and post it then.

      Done – see new comment 19 below.

    • Barry 3.6


      IPCC projections are not the worst case scenario, they are business as usual. The sea level rises exclude possible contribution from ice melt which was deliberately left out because there was too much uncertainty, but it will certainly not be negligible.

      Tell me that an average global temperature rise of 6.4 degrees wouldn’t be a catastrophe justifying extreme language.

      My own projection for this century is a temperature increase of 2 degrees and 50cm sea level rise, but there is no reason to expect a stop there even if emissions drop to zero. A similar rise in the next century will already be committed.

      In any case you would have to agree that a failure to agree on a treaty to do something about it is to condem our grandchildren to a planet very different from what we grew up in.

      • Colonial Viper 3.6.1

        My own projection for this century is a temperature increase of 2 degrees and 50cm sea level rise, but there is no reason to expect a stop there even if emissions drop to zero. A similar rise in the next century will already be committed.

        So even if we cut GHG emissions by a spectacular and unlikely 25% (made even more unlikely by continued massive population growth), what would that mean over the next 100 years? Why change our behaviour now, if the next 100 years of dramatic climate change is already committed too?

      • Matthew Hooton 3.6.2

        Barry, they are business as usual in the sense of forecasting what will happen in the absense of climate change policies, and the IPCC provides a range of scenarios. In AR4, these were:

        Temperature change (°C at 2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999)
        B1 scenario 1.1 – 2.9
        A1T scenario 1.4 – 3.8
        B2 scenario 1.4 – 3.8
        A1B scenario 1.7 – 4.4
        A2 scenario 2.0 – 5.4
        A1FI scenario 2.4 – 6.4

        Sea level rise (m at 2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999)
        B1 scenario 0.18 – 0.38
        A1T scenario 0.20 – 0.45
        B2 scenario 0.20 – 0.43
        A1B scenario 0.21 – 0.48
        A2 scenario 0.23 – 0.51
        A1FI scenario 0.26 – 0.59

        In my comments above, I have used the extreme end of the IPCC’s worst case scenario. So, the IPCC is saying that even in the event of no climate change policies the temperature and sea-level impact may be less than what I quoted.

        I don’t see that even if sea levels are 59cm higher in 2095 than in 1990 as a result of there not being a new climate change treaty that we would have “condemned our grandchildren to a planet very different from what we grew up in” – although I do expect that the world in 2095 to be very different from the world in 1990, in the sense of it being better in almost every respect for the overwhelming majority of people, just as 1990 was better for the overwhelming majority of people than 1885.

        • Richard Christie

          Mathew Hooton, do you think time stops in 2095?

          Do you think that the processes that result in the outcomes of the conservative forecasts of AR4 suddenly switch off in 2095?

          • Colonial Viper

            Forget about damning future generations. With 270,000 NZ children growing up in poverty and a youth unemployment rate hovering around 25%, we are damning the current young generation.

            It seems to me that caring about what comes after 2095 is a luxury few citizens can afford today.

          • Matthew Hooton

            No, but I do think that there are so many variables involved that forecasts beyond a certain point become much less meaningful. For all we know, cold fusion will have been achieved by 2095 or new geo-engineering techniques developed. Who knows? People in 1912 had no idea of what 1995 would be like, and the rate of scientific and technological change 2012-2095 will be much greater than 1912-1995. So it becomes deeply hubristic to think that opinions we hold or policy positions we take in 2012 will have a greater influence on the world post-2095 than all the developments that will take place between now and then.

            And, stange as it may seem, I agree with Colonial Viper here. It is much more important to worry about the real issues of today, about which we have very good – almost perfect – data – compared with matters 100 years hence, about which we really can know very little.

            • Colonial Viper

              Always good to bring up miraculous technology breakthroughs to provide us with unlimited carbon free, nuclear free, cheap, sustainable energy. Some time in the future.

              Bring on the cornucopian justifications for ever more Business As Usual.

              • Matthew Hooton

                You may call it cornucopian, but I just think that scientific and technological advances over the next 100 years are likely to be more significant than gramaphone to iPhone and Vickers monoplane to International Space Station and Hubble Telescope, and so forecasting the impact of human activity on the climate in, say, 2150, is a bit arrogant.
                Also, if you are right about peak oil, the imminent meltdown of capitalism etc, then all climate forecasts are wrong and too pessimistic, even on a much shorter timeframe than 100 years.

                • Jackal

                  You’re presuming that mankind can reduce its reliance on polluting systems to such an extent that will allow developments before the effects of climate change really take hold and before cheap fuel that has driven most of the worlds advances runs out.

                  There is no way for you to know what future developments will be able to be undertaken, and therefore your reliance on this mystical technological saviour is highly foolish!

                  It’s naive and as backwards as John Key claiming that climate change is a hoax in November 2006… some 40 years after scientists first raised concerns about anthropomorphic climate change.

            • felix

              “the rate of scientific and technological change 2012-2095 will be much greater than 1912-1995”

              Based on what?

              Maybe you should take cheap oil out of your equation and recalculate.

              • Colonial Viper

                well I think that there WILL be a great amount of technological change between now and 2050.

                Just not in the direction most people assume.

              • Matthew Hooton

                Based on the trend line of 200,000 years since the evolution of homo sapiens, and especially the last 600 or so years.
                Take “cheap oil” out of the equation, and I think the rate of scientific and technological change would increase given it would involve an obvious need to find a new sources of energy. That is already happening and will accelerate at the point of peak oil.

                • felix

                  “given it would involve an obvious need to find a new sources of energy. That is already happening and will accelerate at the point of peak oil.”

                  Ah, the market will provide.

                  Nope, it’s not an abstraction. It’s a real resource, we’re really running out of it, and we need absolute fuckloads of it to build any sort of new energy infrastructure.

                  And while we’re not getting that fuckload of oil that we can’t afford to build the tech that we haven’t actually invented yet, we also need another fuckload of it to keep our existing tech going. Which we also can’t afford.

                  Market theory, meet physical reality.

                  • Colonial Viper

                    Hooton hasn’t quite understood it eh. You can’t even make pig iron if you don’t have the energy to build and heat the furnace.

                    Imagine discovering a massive oil deposit on the moon. When you don’t have the money, energy and materials required to build the space vehicles and infrastructure needed to get there and back.

                    And even if you did, and a barrel of oil was worth so much that it was financially feasible to drill for it on the moon, you hit the minor physical barrier of using up more energy to recover each barrel of oil than the barrel of oil can provide you.

                    At that point it doesn’t matter if that barrel of oil is worth $100 or $100M. Its not worth recovering, physically.

                    That is already happening and will accelerate at the point of peak oil.

                    That was 6 years ago. What energy breakthroughs have happened since then?

                    In fact, what energy breakthroughs have happened in the last 20 years? Nuclear power was a breakthrough of the 1940’s and 1950’s. Solar cells were a breakthrough of the 1950’s and 1960’s.

                    Wind turbines use technologies established a century ago.

                    My bet: there’s no cold fusion, no tylium and no dilithium coming online in time to save our civilisation’s ass.

                    • Matthew Hooton

                      In which case, we may as well party like there’s no tomorrow.

                    • felix

                      No tomorrow? Not at all, Matt.

                      What we’re looking at is a very different tomorrow to which we’ll need to be skilled and flexible enough in our lifestyles to adapt. Many of us are part of the way there already btw.

                      It’s not actually helpful or useful to say there’s no point living in a world that doesn’t continue to meet your unrealistic expectations.

        • Barry


          A1F1 is BAU. All aother scenarios require some meaningful (i.e. considerably better than what we are achieving now) attempt at reducing emissions. The NZ government aspires to a reduction but our emissions continue to grow.

          You can argue about the language in a link from the post, but it doesn’t change the need to do something to cut emissions drastically.

          You say we should wait for the next IPCC report, or wait until the results of warming is clearer, but the longer we wait the harder it will be to keep the world in a state that we can recognise.

    • Johnm 3.7

      Hi MH
      “Why are you linking to some nutter quoted in a 2009 Independent story talking about “mass extinction of almost all life … reduc[ing] humanity to a few struggling groups of embattled survivors clinging to life near the poles,” “billions of people find[ing] themselves in areas of the planet which are essentially uninhabitable,” “hundreds of millions … forced to move inland due to rapidly-rising seas” and so forth?”

      James Lovelock is not a nutter, he has infinitely more credibility on this subject than your superficial and arrogant assertions. Please view the following link to view his Scientific Credentials. What scientific credentials do you have ? NONE.


      • Matthew Hooton 3.7.1

        The quotes aren’t by James Lovelock. I don’t have any scientific credentials. I’m just quoting the IPCC.

    • Johnm 3.8

      Hi MH

      “World on course for catastrophic 6° rise, reveal scientists
      Fast-rising carbon emissions mean that worst-case predictions for climate change are coming true”

      The link you noted above is as follows:

      The scientists , not “some nutter’, said: ” This means that the most extreme scenario envisaged in the last report from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, published in 2007, is now the one for which society is set, according to the 31 researchers from seven countries involved in the Global Carbon Project.”

      “the Global Carbon Project study, led by Professor Corinne Le Quéré, of the University of East Anglia and the British Antarctic Survey, which found that there has been a 29 per cent increase in global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel between 2000 and 2008, the last year for which figures are available.”

      “The study by Professor Le Quéré and her team, published in the journal Nature Geoscience, envisages a far higher figure. “We’re at the top end of the IPCC scenario,” she said.

      Professor Le Quéré said that Copenhagen was the last chance of coming to a global agreement that would curb carbon-dioxide emissions on a time-course that would hopefully stabilise temperature rises to within the danger threshold. “The Copenhagen conference next month is in my opinion the last chance to stabilise climate at C above pre-industrial levels in a smooth and organised way,” she said.”

      Bottom line these people aren’t Nutters!

      • Matthew Hooton 3.8.1

        University of East Anglia. Tyndall Centre. Hadley Centre. If they aren’t nutters they are something worse.

        I think we should just wait for the IPCC AR5 in 2014 don’t you?

        • Colonial Viper

          Wait…wait…wait…sounds like a Business As Usual strategy to run out the clock

          • Matthew Hooton

            What I meant was that johnm seems to be convinced that these scientists are correct in forecasting that the IPCC’s most extreme scenario is the one that is coming true. In two years, the thousands of scientists we are told are involved in IPCC Assessment Reports will release their consensus view. In the meantime, rather than basing policy on johnm’s favoured 31 scientists (led by the University of East Anglia!) it would be better to base it on the existing consensus report, which is IPCC AR4.

        • Richard Christie

          “University of East Anglia. Tyndall Centre. Hadley Centre. If they aren’t nutters they are something worse.” Mathew Hooton

          No, no no. You don’t drop that one and get to walk away.


          • Matthew Hooton

            You don’t really need an explanation do you? Statements from those institutions, especially in late 2009 in the lead up to the Copenhagen conference should be treated with a very high degree of (am I allowed to use the word?) skepticism for reasons that are well documented. The IPCC reports are the generally accepted sources of consensus forecasts, not the politically motivated exaggerations of personnel at the UEA and its associated “centres”.

            • Kotahi Tane Huna

              “Reasons that are well documented” link please – I am aware of some hysterical nonsense that’s been passed around, but perhaps you have something credible?

            • Draco T Bastard

              You mean all the reasons that the RWNJs and deniers came up with that have subsequently been refuted?

              • Matthew Hooton

                No, the findings of the formal inquiries, including by the university. Much was made of the fact that these inquiries all found that the poor behaviour did not undermine the view that AGW is real, and that there was no actual malpractice, but that wasn’t the point. The inquiries did find a culture of scientists trying to exaggerate their findings when presenting it publicly, not being open to other ideas and not making their data available for peer review. So I prefer to rely on the IPCC reports.

                • Kotahi Tane Huna

                  “The inquiries did find a culture of scientists trying to exaggerate their findings when presenting it publicly,”

                  I do not recall a single investigation that concluded anything of the sort. Link please.

                • Kotahi Tane Huna

                  Matthew Hooten, there is nothing about peer-review failures or exaggeration in the Oxburgh report. Nothing in the House of Commons investigation. Either your memory is faulty, you have been duped, or you are fabricating.

                • Richard Christie

                  “You don’t really need an explanation do you? Statements from those institutions, especially in late 2009 in the lead up to the Copenhagen conference should be treated with a very high degree of (am I allowed to use the word?) skepticism for reasons that are well documented. ….
                  The inquiries did find a culture of scientists trying to exaggerate their findings when presenting it publicly, not being open to other ideas and not making their data available for peer review.”- Mathew Hooton

                  Why am I not I surprised by your spin?


                  Eight separate inquiries found the science of the institutions sound and unchallenged by the email hack.. No evidence of fraud or scientific misconduct. Nor was the outcome of the peer review system found to be subverted by any actions of those concerned.

                  In essesnce, scientists were found only to have not been as forthcoming as they should have been in regard to OI requests which simply reveals lax internal systems and also that the scientists concerned has a very human reaction to a blitz of vexatious FOI requests for data. Sometimes numerous requests in a single day.

                  Your insinuation that the science produced by UEA and HadCRUT is unsound reveals how superficially you follow the issue.

    • Murray Olsen 3.9

      The deniers are not even on the scientific Bell curve, whatever that is. The sad fact is that they are generally cranks or incompetent scientists from, at best, vaguely related areas. The other sad fact is that they are actually the ones who are getting the famous $$$$$ from spouting what the fossil fuel industry and the right wing want them to say. In fact, in Australia we even have Ian Plimer, a mining geologist and mining company director, who has published that the Sun is made of iron. These guys are cranks, not sceptics.

  4. Sam Hall 4

    Google rise in ocean salinity

  5. Jackal 5

    The cone of silence surrounding climate change seems impervious to even the most newsworthy stories. Apart from this article in the Herald last week, the MSM hasn’t bothered to keep people informed about what is only the biggest story in mankind’s history at all.

    The report emphasises the potential of climate change to wreak havoc on biodiversity. It notes that 55 per cent of humanity’s ecological footprint comes from the carbon footprint – an estimate of the amount of forest needed to sequester CO2 emissions from fossil fuels.

    It quotes Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) findings in 2007, which flagged an ecologically catastrophic cocktail of global warming – bringing more severe droughts, flooding, sea level rises and ocean acidification – mixed with land use changes, pollution and over-exploitation of resources. This “unprecedented combination” would bring conditions likely to wipe out many ecosystems this century.

    New research on ocean acidification, published in Science in March, warns that “the current rate of CO2 release stands out as capable of driving a combination and magnitude of ocean geochemical changes potentially unparalleled in at least the last 300 million years.”

    Now we’re back to the same old non-reporting to keep people ignorant. The sky might fall on the climate change deniers heads if we actually had to change our ways and reduce our greenhouse gas emissions… How terrible for their oily wallets that would be.

  6. Colonial Viper 6

    Economic decline and the debt-based constraints the world economy will be under for the foreseeable future will take care of greenhouse gas emissions more effectively than anything else.

    See this: China defaulting on contracted deliveries of imported coal because of the economic down turn.

    • Kotahi Tane Huna 6.1

      Perhaps, but we’ve already booked another forty years of warming even if Co2 levels stay where they are – and they aren’t – if you catch my drift.

      • Oscar 6.1.1

        Forty years of cooling would be a more approximate estimation.

        • McFlock

          “Forty years of cooling would be a more approximate estimation.”

          Stop using words that are bigger than you.
          It makes it difficult to identify just what flavour of stupidity you’re trying to sell.

          • Oscar

            Hah, I’m the stupid one?

            Each of the last icy periods have been longer and colder than the one preceding, since the Holocene period began.

            The problem with the AGWers is you all live in lala land thinking that the Earth is only getting hotter. Not once does it seem to cross your minds that cooling is just as real, and will be worse for humanity as cold = death.

            All signs and indications are that we’re heading for another period of cooling. How many years before the Thames freezes again? 2 years? 3 years?

            Those estimates are far more appropriate than the warmistas falsehoods of sea level rises (when they’re actually dropping) and melting ice caps. Newsflash – Arctic sea ice extent for 2011 was greater than the previous 7 years and increasing.

            • Colonial Viper

              The problem with the AGWers is you all live in lala land thinking that the Earth is only getting hotter.

              Climate CHANGE mate

            • Kotahi Tane Huna

              Oscar, you with the cretinous drivel, yes, you’re the stupid one. Nothing you’ve written has any bearing in reality, and your arguments are shallow and futile.

              How delusional do you have to be to imagine that anyone is going to take you seriously? Are you so fucked in the head you think anyone will take your worthless word for it?


              • muzza

                Well you bothered to reply, which means you read his post, digested it. then made a conscious choice to throw some diss at his comments….

                Bit like I’ve made a choice to reply to yours, having read your standard level of abuse, and had a chuckle at the fact your online ego is still going strong!

            • prism

              Oscar you get the golden ass. What does it matter whether it gets a lot colder or a lot hotter, it all acts to muck up our growing seasons and affect our health and the quality of our housing and….

              We are good at fouling things up for personal short-term gain when things are proceeding in a fairly normal way, ie the leaky building muck-up. Seasonal changes will stretch our irrational minds and unsustainable practices to the utmost. How will you cope yourself thinking, or not, as you do?

              • Oscar

                Yes, mankind is excellent at befouling the waters. Climate Change apparently now is analogous with it getting hotter. Not one of the drivel that you warmistas spout pays any attention to the fact that Earths natural state is ICE, tempered by short bursts of interglacials.

                The last 10,000 years have been a blip. Homo Sapiens was lucky to survive with around 20,000 people after that last glacial.

  7. marsman 7

    Interesting, it seems to be that the people who stand to make or save money by pollution or pollution producing materials are the ones who try and pretend that their pollution is not harmful to our planet. Unfortunately these people also have the ear of mainstream media and they have lots of money to finance their hoodwinking by various devious means. It’s the usual case of bully quickly turning victim when challenged.

  8. burt 8

    I use to like the good old days when the IPCC said that solar forcing was of no impact to climate and that the solar cycles were irrelevant to climate… back then we could all believe that the reason it was colder at night than during the day was because CO2 increased during the day rather than the warming effect was a result of the suns rays.

    • Kotahi Tane Huna 8.1

      And despite the fact that they said it all that time ago, you still haven’t the first tiny clue what it means, and boy are you eager to demonstrate your ignorance.

    • Oscar 8.2

      They still say that – most recent report states that “the sun has little to no effect on the Earth’s climate”

      Never mind that we’re currently on track for a Dalton type minimum with the lack of sunspots, and could even head into a Maunder Minimum.

      This at a time when cycle 24 is supposed to be ramping up, not down.

      • Kotahi Tane Huna 8.2.1

        Sorry, but I get my information from peer-reviewed science, not morons.

        • Oscar

          IPCC are morons then if they ignore the biggest driver of climate on Earth as being the sun

  9. Sukie Damson 9

    How much of planet Earth is made of water? Very little, actually. Although oceans of water cover about 70 percent of Earth’s surface, these oceans are shallow compared to the Earth’s radius. This illustration shows what would happen if all of the water on or near the surface of the Earth were bunched up into a ball.

  10. Jimmie 10

    As usual the AGW/CC believers resort to personal abuse when challenged on their beliefs.

    I really don’t get why its such a big deal to them? 30 years ago the concept didn’t exist.

    Then along came a bunch of guys in white coats & fancy computer projection programs and suddenly they all want to die in a ditch to defend what ever end of days projections the guys in white coats come out with.

    I mean are scientists omniscient? Do they have a crystal ball that can accurately predict the future?

    I mean if climatologists can’t accurately predict short term weather more than 1-2 days out (and even then half the time the forecasts change) then why the heck should we believe them when they forecast 50-100 years hence?

    Even if CO2 and other gases do contribute to any greenhouse gas effect how can science know what side effect/spin off effect will result from this? Also why would this be seen as something negative?

    They have never lived through a period of such warming so at best their estimates are guesses.

    (News flash: Just because you get a computer to do it still means its a guess)

    Now you could ask, what is the big deal? Who cares if a bunch of nutty green/nerds want to preach the end of the world as we know it?

    The big deal is they want to use this armageddon scenario to justify introducing significant new taxes to hammer industrialised countries. That is a big deal – just a pity for the believers that the biggest emitting countries don’t want a bar of it, and those that may have (think Europe) now have more pressing issues to deal with.

    Oh dear, how sad, never mind……….

    [This post is about the politics around the response to AGW climate change. It is NOT a forum to debate the existence and reality of the phenomenon. If you want to do that, take your data and arguments to a science forum and convince some real climate scientists of the truth of your argument. In other words you are thread-jacking…. this is your only warning. RL]

    • Draco T Bastard 10.1

      You didn’t challenge any beliefs nor did you challenge the science. You made some assertions that have already been proven untrue.

    • Kotahi Tane Huna 10.2

      “Even if CO2 and other gases do contribute to any greenhouse gas effect…”

      Listen to yourself. CO2 is a dipolar molecule. How could it not contribute to warming? This is well understood, but apparently not by you.

      Joe90 has already pointed out your ignorance regarding the provenance of climatology.

      So, in the above drivel, you make two factual assertions and both of them are shot down immediately. I expect you’ve got some more piss-weak nonsense to follow up with.

    • Blue 10.3

      Like most climate change deniers, you’ve only proven that you don’t WANT climate change to be real.

      Because that would threaten what you have built your life upon – the modern industrialised society where you can pollute all you like at no cost and you can tell yourself it doesn’t affect anything.

      So you and Matthew Hooten sit and look for reasons why it’s all a big conspiracy, and it couldn’t possibly be real in order to avoid having to deal with this threat to your belief system.

      Somehow I don’t think Matthew would throw out his belief in economics despite every Treasury forecast in recent memory being completely wrong. But if science doesn’t predict the exact temperature change or sea level rise then it’s all a hoax, right?

      • Matthew Hooton 10.3.1

        Blue, in all my comments on this thread, I have assumed the scientific forecasts, as reported by the IPCC, are correct, so I don’t get your point. Just like economic forecasts, the IPCC’s climate forecasts will, of course, change over time and end up being not quite right. This has been happening. Over the last 20 years, the consensus scientific forecasts for temperature and sea-level rises as a result of AGW, as reported by the IPCC, have narrowed and the worst-case scenario has fallen. I’m not alleging any conspiracy – just reading the reports.

    • Anne 10.4

      30 years ago the concept didn’t exist.

      You lie, you lie, you lie Jimmie!

      Forty years ago global warming was both recognised and widely discussed among meteorologists – and related professions – both here in NZ and elsewhere in the world. How do I know? Because I was a part of the sector for 25 years. You CC deniers are full of bullshit, lies and/or are blinded by ideological crap. It’s time the MSM stopped giving the corrupt pseudo-scientists who wilfully muddy the waters any publicity whatsoever.

      Btw Anthony: the reason (as I’m sure you are well aware) the popular media don’t cover it is because it requires thought and careful analysis and that is far too much to expect in this era of shallow, sensational type of tabloid journalism.

      • Murray Olsen 10.4.1

        All the main deniers lie. They just make stuff up, like Monckton. They’re well funded and they communicate in sound bites, which is what the media love. Scientists in general are not as good as communicating with the public because they deal with complex issues and do not want to simplify things beyond any sensible recognition. Explaining things in depth makes for boring news or television whereas claiming that scientists are part of a well funded conspiracy appeals to those who wouldn’t know a hyperbolic tangent if it jumped up and bit them and are suspicious of those who do. In this sense, one of our main problems is a public without the critical faculties to evaluate the evidence and larger class sizes and charter schools will only make this worse. As they’re designed to do.

        • Anne

          Thank-you Murray Olsen. You have articulated the situation so well. The truth is, these deniers are not capable of understanding or even admitting the truth and they feel personally threatened.
          Indeed it comes across to me as a form of ostrich-like, primeval heads in the sand. If we can’t or won’t see it, then it isn’t there.

  11. joe90 11

    I really don’t get why its such a big deal to them? 30 years ago the concept didn’t exist.

    Svante Arrhenius 1896: On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature of the Ground

  12. terryg 12

    deniers might want to watch Earth: The Operators Manual.

    Then try and explain the relative ratios of C12, C13 and C14 isotopes.

    C12 is very common in plants
    C13 is more common in volcanic gases
    C14 is radioactive, with a half-life of 5370 years, and is mainly produced in the upper atmosphere
    (this half-life is why radiocarbon dating only works for objects > 50,000 years old).

    measurements show C12 is going up, but C13 is not and nor is C14. This means that the Carbon is not coming from volcanoes, it is coming from plants that have beenn dead for a very, very long time.

    Gee, I wonder what that might be?

    • terryg 12.1

      weird. ate half my comment. I wonder if it was my use of >> characters? guess this’ll show me

      nope. clearly I cant drive a keyboard. clearly the proximity of so much stupid has negatively affected my typing skills. I suspect an hour of Monckton would render me incapable of speech…..

    • terryg 12.2


      (this half-life is why radiocarbon dating only works for objects less than 50,000 years old).

    • Murray Olsen 12.3

      C12 pretends to believe in AGW and therefore gets more of the lucrative research monies and can have bigger families? I’ve tried to give as ridiculous an answer as possible, but I’m sure the deniers can come up with worse.

      • terryg 12.3.1

        heh. two words: Ancient Aliens

        AGW deniers are approaching Erich Von Daniken levels of willful ignorance. and thats REALLY saying something.

  13. Kotahi Tane Huna 13

    Discussion on Real Climate of the idea of using video to better present scientific info. They are looking for feedback.

  14. Afewknowthetruth 14

    May 15, 2012

    In April 2012, the average temperature of Earth’s Northern Hemisphere was the warmest of any April in the past 133 years.

    Globally, April 2012 marks the fifth warmest April since temperature records began in 1880. It was the 326th straight month with a global temperature above the average for the 20th century.

  15. Carol 15

    It’s so good to see some right wingers so strongly articulating their ideal of “responsibility”.

  16. Afewknowthetruth 16

    Weekly Data | Atmospheric CO2

    Atmospheric CO2 – Weekly Data
    Mauna Loa Observatory | NOAA-ESRL Data

    Week Atmospheric CO2

    May 13 – 19, 2012 397.04 ppm (last week)

    May 13 – 19, 2011 394.55 ppm (1 year ago)

    May 13 – 19, 2002 375.33 ppm (10 years ago)

    (Historical norm 280ppm.)

    • Oscar 16.1

      If thats the historical norm, then there can’t have been much plant life. 90% of plants require there being over 300ppm of CO2.

  17. OneTrack 17

    Actual temperatures haven’t aligned with the “models” for the last fourteen years at least. If I was a scientist I might be looking at reconfiguring those models with the lack of accuracy they seem to have (call me old-fashioned that way). But that might reduce the “research” budget if catastrophic outcomes weren’t being predicted.

    • Colonial Viper 17.1

      The real money is with the polluters being able to continue Business As Usual pollution. Can’t have that changing.

  18. OneTrack 18

    And the other reason why these summits are falling over is because it has become clear they have turned into wealth redistribution mechanisms, from “rich” countries to “poor” countries which won’t actually do anything to help the climate anyway.

    So, why should a poor person in NZ pay the ongoing costs of our ETS when it won’t make any difference except make them pay more for their petrol and/or transport and heating, etc.

    • Draco T Bastard 18.1

      So, why should a poor person in NZ pay the ongoing costs of our ETS when it won’t make any difference except make them pay more for their petrol and/or transport and heating, etc

      Translation: Why should we pay the full costs of the stuff we use when we can put it on others.

  19. r0b 19

    This is mainly for Matthew Hooton, who has been engaging constructively in this thread (for a change!). Matthew, the reason I linked in the OP to some of the more extreme predictions is because that is what is happening. All the evidence suggests that we are on course to exceed the IPCC’s scenarios.

    Global warming seen worse than predicted


    Climate Change Likely To Be More Devastating Than Experts Predicted, Warns Top IPCC Scientist

    Arctic Ice Thinning 4 Times Faster Than Predicted by IPCC Models, Semi-Stunning M.I.T. Study Finds

    Oceans rising much faster than IPCC predicted

    Here’s another summary of what we have in store:
    An Illustrated Guide to the Science of Global Warming Impacts: How We Know Inaction Is the Gravest Threat Humanity Faces

    And here’s the graph I mentioned earlier in the day, ponder the implications:
    ‘Hug The Monster’: Why So Many Climate Scientists Have Stopped Downplaying the Climate Threat

    • Puddleglum 19.1

      Thanks for those links r0b.

      The last one doesn’t surprise me at all. I’ve long thought that the likely effect of being an official body (the IPCC, I mean) would be to err on the side of ‘conservatism’. That’s the usual effect from creating official bodies.

      For a whole range of psychological, social, institutional and political reasons, underplaying an unpalatable truth is far more likely than overplaying it. An individual scientist may take a chance on being hyperbolic to kick-start their career but, en masse, the institutionalised social forces ensure that the tendency will be overwhelmingly in the other direction. 

      Also, the ‘don’t scare the horses’ sense of responsibility (or paternalism) that many professionals have when ‘communicating’ with the public is common. Scientists seem to be wary of panicking what they often appear to see as the “bewildered herd” – to use one of Chomsky’s expressions.

      Closer to home, I had a sense that some of our geologists saw their role as primarily one of ‘calming fears’ over the recent earthquakes – acting ‘responsibly’ by not speaking frankly – rather than straightforwardly communicating what was and was not known.

      • r0b 19.1.1

        Thanks for those links r0b.

        No problem Puddleglum, though not exactly cheerful reading. And the quakes, yes, “authorities” always want to “prevent panic”.

  20. MrSmith 20

    So lets see what cards from the Denialists deck, Mr Hooton and others have been playing.  
    Denialists’ Deck of Cards: Nit Pick, and Muddy the Waters
    With nit picking, the denialist finds one problem with a fact asserted or the proposal for reform, and then harps on the problem incessantly.
    Denialists’ Deck of Cards: The 5 of Spades, “Delay Tactics”
    lets wait and see

    Denialists’ Deck of Cards: The 2 of Clubs, “No Problem”

    “No problem” is the chorus of a denalist argument.  The skilled denalist, even after engaging in a debate for an extended period of time, will never concede that a problem exists.

    Denialists’ Deck of Cards: The 3 of Hearts, “No Harm”

    Okay, my industry lobbyists in training. You’ve said “no problem” over and over. You’ve dismissed problems as attributable to bad apples, or diminished the problem as a “mere inconvenience.” But people still seem to think that the problem that doesn’t exist still exists. You’re getting more and more press calls on the non-existent problem. What next?

    No harm. The problem that doesn’t exist doesn’t cause harm, so there’s no problem.

  21. Steve Wrathall 22

    “At least one Auckland primar school is awarding stickers for green behaviours,”…
    Pity yours didn’t award them for spelling.

    ” the green party vote is increasing…”
    Unsurprising the way deep green catastrophism saturates the state education monopoly.

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    A chronological listing of news and opinion articles posted on the Skeptical Science  Facebook Page during the past week: Sun, Dec 3, 2023 thru Sat, Dec 9, 2023. Story of the Week Interactive: The pathways to meeting the Paris Agreement’s 1.5C limit The Paris Agreement’s long-term goal of keeping warming “well below” ...
    22 hours ago
  • LOGAN SAVORY: The planned blessing that has irked councillors
    “I’m struggling to understand why we are having a blessing to bless this site considering it is a scrap metal yard… It just doesn’t make sense to me.” Logan Savory writes- When’s a blessing appropriate and when isn’t it? Some Invercargill City Councillors have questioned whether blessings might ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    23 hours ago
  • Surely it won't happen
    I have prepared a bad news sandwich. That is to say, I'm going to try and make this more agreeable by placing on the top and underneath some cheering things.So let's start with a daughter update, the one who is now half a world away but also never farther out ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    1 day ago
  • Let Them Eat Sausage Rolls: Hipkins Tries to Kill Labour Again
    Sometimes you despair. You really do. Fresh off leading Labour to its ugliest election result since 1990,* Chris Hipkins has decided to misdiagnose matters, because the Government he led cannot possibly have been wrong about anything. *In 2011 and 2014, people were willing to save Labour’s electorate ...
    2 days ago
  • Clued Up: Ageing Boomers, Laurie & Les, Talk Politics.
    “But, that’s the thing, mate, isn’t it? We showed ourselves to be nothing more useful than a bunch of angry old men, shaking our fists at the sky. Were we really that angry at Labour and the Greens? Or was it just the inescapable fact of our own growing irrelevancy ...
    2 days ago
  • JERRY COYNE: A powerful University dean in New Zealand touts merging higher education with indigeno...
    Jerry Coyne writes –  This article from New Zealand’s Newsroom site was written by Julie Rowland,  the deputy dean of the Faculty of Science at the University of Auckland as well as a geologist and the Director of the Ngā Ara Whetū | Centre for Climate, Biodiversity & Society. In other ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    2 days ago
  • Ain't nobody gonna steal this heart away.
    Ain't nobody gonna steal this heart away.For the last couple of weeks its felt as though all the good things in our beautiful land are under attack.These isles in the southern Pacific. The home of the Māori people. A land of easy going friendliness, openness, and she’ll be right. A ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    2 days ago
  • Speaking for the future
    Hello! Here comes the Saturday edition of More Than A Feilding, catching you up on the past week’s editions.MondayYou cannot be seriousOne might think, god, people who are seeing all this must be regretting their vote.But one might be mistaken.There are people whose chief priority is not wanting to be ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    2 days ago
  • How Should We Organise a Modern Economy?
    Alan Bollard, formerly Treasury Secretary, Reserve Bank Governor and Chairman of APEC, has written an insightful book exploring command vs demand approaches to the economy. The Cold War included a conflict about ideas; many were economic. Alan Bollard’s latest book Economists in the Cold War focuses on the contribution of ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    3 days ago
  • Willis fails a taxing app-titude test but govt supporters will cheer moves on Te Pukenga and the Hum...
    Buzz from the Beehive The Minister of Defence has returned from Noumea to announce New Zealand will host next year’s South Pacific Defence Ministers’ Meeting and (wearing another ministerial hat) to condemn malicious cyber activity conducted by the Russian Government. A bigger cheer from people who voted for the Luxon ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    3 days ago
  • ELIZABETH RATA: In defence of the liberal university and against indigenisation
    The suppression of individual thought in our universities spills over into society, threatening free speech everywhere. Elizabeth Rata writes –  Indigenising New Zealand’s universities is well underway, presumably with the agreement of University Councils and despite the absence of public discussion. Indigenising, under the broader umbrella of decolonisation, ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on the skewed media coverage of Gaza
    Now that he’s back as Foreign Minister, maybe Winston Peters should start reading the MFAT website. If he did, Peters would find MFAT celebrating the 25th anniversary of how New Zealand alerted the rest of the world to the genocide developing in Rwanda. Quote: New Zealand played an important role ...
    3 days ago
  • “Your Circus, Your Clowns.”
    It must have been a hard first couple of weeks for National voters, since the coalition was announced. Seeing their party make so many concessions to New Zealand First and ACT that there seems little remains of their own policies, other than the dwindling dream of tax cuts and the ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    3 days ago
  • Weekly Roundup 8-December-2023
    It’s Friday again and Christmas is fast approaching. Here’s some of the stories that caught our attention. This week in Greater Auckland On Tuesday Matt covered some of the recent talk around the costs, benefits and challenges with the City Rail Link. On Thursday Matt looked at how ...
    Greater AucklandBy Greater Auckland
    3 days ago
  • End-of-week escapism
    Amsterdam to Hong Kong William McCartney16,000 kilometres41 days18 trains13 countries11 currencies6 long-distance taxis4 taxi apps4 buses3 sim cards2 ferries1 tram0 medical events (surprisingly)Episode 4Whether the Sofia-Istanbul Express really qualifies to be called an express is debatable, but it’s another one of those likeably old and slow trains tha… ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    3 days ago
  • The Hoon around the week to Dec 8
    Governor-General Dame Cindy Kiro arrives for the State Opening of Parliament (Photo: Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images)TL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for paying subscribers in the last week included:New Finance Minister Nicola Willis set herself a ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • New Zealand’s Witchcraft Laws: 1840/1858-1961/1962
    Sometimes one gets morbidly curious about the oddities of one’s own legal system. Sometimes one writes entire essays on New Zealand’s experience with Blasphemous Libel: And sometimes one follows up the exact historical status of witchcraft law in New Zealand. As one does, of course. ...
    3 days ago
  • No surprises
    Don’t expect any fiscal shocks or surprises when the books are opened on December 20 with the unveiling of the Half Yearly Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU). That was the message yesterday from Westpac in an economic commentary. But the bank’s analysis did not include any changes to capital ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    3 days ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #49 2023
    113 articles in 48 journals by 674 contributing authors Physical science of climate change, effects Diversity of Lagged Relationships in Global Means of Surface Temperatures and Radiative Budgets for CMIP6 piControl Simulations, Tsuchida et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0045.1 Do abrupt cryosphere events in High Mountain Asia indicate earlier tipping ...
    4 days ago
  • Phone calls at Kia Kaha primary
    It is quiet reading time in Room 13! It is so quiet you can hear the Tui outside. It is so quiet you can hear the Fulton Hogan crew.It is so quiet you can hear old Mr Grant and old Mr Bradbury standing by the roadworks and counting the conesand going on ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    4 days ago
  • A question of confidence is raised by the Minister of Police, but he had to be questioned by RNZ to ...
    It looks like the new ministerial press secretaries have quickly learned the art of camouflaging exactly what their ministers are saying – or, at least, of keeping the hard news  out of the headlines and/or the opening sentences of the statements they post on the home page of the governments ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    4 days ago
  • Xmas  good  cheer  for the dairy industry  as Fonterra lifts its forecast
    The big dairy co-op Fonterra  had  some Christmas  cheer to offer  its farmers this week, increasing its forecast farmgate milk price and earnings guidance for  the year after what it calls a strong start to the year. The forecast  midpoint for the 2023/24 season is up 25cs to $7.50 per ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago
  • MICHAEL BASSETT: Modern Maori myths
    Michael Bassett writes – Many of the comments about the Coalition’s determination to wind back the dramatic Maorification of New Zealand of the last three years would have you believe the new government is engaged in a full-scale attack on Maori. In reality, all that is happening ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    4 days ago
  • Dreams of eternal sunshine at a spotless COP28
    Mary Robinson asked Al Jaber a series of very simple, direct and highly pertinent questions and he responded with a high-octane public meltdown. Photos: Getty Images / montage: Lynn GrievesonTL;DR The hygiene effects of direct sunshine are making some inroads, perhaps for the very first time, on the normalised ‘deficit ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • LINDSAY MITCHELL: Oh, the irony
    Lindsay Mitchell writes – Appointed by new Labour PM Jacinda Ardern in 2018, Cindy Kiro headed the Welfare Expert Advisory Group (WEAG) tasked with reviewing and recommending reforms to the welfare system. Kiro had been Children’s Commissioner during Helen Clark’s Labour government but returned to academia subsequently. ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago
  • Transport Agencies don’t want Harbour Tunnels
    It seems even our transport agencies don’t want Labour’s harbour crossing plans. In August the previous government and Waka Kotahi announced their absurd preferred option the new harbour crossing that at the time was estimated to cost $35-45 billion. It included both road tunnels and a wiggly light rail tunnel ...
    4 days ago
  • Webworm Presents: Jurassic Park on 35mm
    Hi,Paying Webworm members such as yourself keep this thing running, so as 2023 draws to close, I wanted to do two things to say a giant, loud “THANKS”. Firstly — I’m giving away 10 Mister Organ blu-rays in New Zealand, and another 10 in America. More details down below.Secondly — ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    4 days ago
  • The Prime Minister's Dream.
    Yesterday saw the State Opening of Parliament, the Speech from the Throne, and then Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s dream for Aotearoa in his first address. But first the pomp and ceremony, the arrival of the Governor General.Dame Cindy Kiro arrived on the forecourt outside of parliament to a Māori welcome. ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago
  • National’s new MP; the proud part-Maori boy raised in a state house
    Probably not since 1975 have we seen a government take office up against such a wall of protest and complaint. That was highlighted yesterday, the day that the new Parliament was sworn in, with news that King Tuheitia has called a national hui for late January to develop a ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    4 days ago
  • Climate Adam: Battlefield Earth – How War Fuels Climate Catastrophe
    This video includes conclusions of the creator climate scientist Dr. Adam Levy. It is presented to our readers as an informed perspective. Please see video description for references (if any). War, conflict and climate change are tearing apart lives across the world. But these aren't separate harms - they're intricately connected. ...
    5 days ago
  • They do not speak for us, and they do not speak for the future
    These dire woeful and intolerant people have been so determinedly going about their small and petulant business, it’s hard to keep up. At the end of the new government’s first woeful week, Audrey Young took the time to count off its various acts of denigration of Te Ao Māori:Review the ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    5 days ago
  • Another attack on te reo
    The new white supremacist government made attacking te reo a key part of its platform, promising to rename government agencies and force them to "communicate primarily in English" (which they already do). But today they've gone further, by trying to cut the pay of public servants who speak te reo: ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • For the record, the Beehive buzz can now be regarded as “official”
    Buzz from the Beehive The biggest buzz we bring you from the Beehive today is that the government’s official website is up and going after being out of action for more than a week. The latest press statement came  from  Education Minister  Eric Stanford, who seized on the 2022 PISA ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    5 days ago
  • Climate Change: Failed again
    There was another ETS auction this morning. and like all the other ones this year, it failed to clear - meaning that 23 million tons of carbon (15 million ordinary units plus 8 million in the cost containment reserve) went up in smoke. Or rather, they didn't. Being unsold at ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell On The Government’s Assault On Maori
    This isn’t news, but the National-led coalition is mounting a sustained assault on Treaty rights and obligations. Even so, Christopher Luxon has described yesterday’s nationwide protests by Maori as “pretty unfair.” Poor thing. In the NZ Herald, Audrey Young has compiled a useful list of the many, many ways that ...
    5 days ago
  • Rising costs hit farmers hard, but  there’s more  positive news  for  them this  week 
    New Zealand’s dairy industry, the mainstay of the country’s export trade, has  been under  pressure  from rising  costs. Down on the  farm, this  has  been  hitting  hard. But there  was more positive news this week,  first   from the latest Fonterra GDT auction where  prices  rose,  and  then from  a  report ...
    Point of OrderBy tutere44
    5 days ago
  • ROB MacCULLOCH:  Newshub and NZ Herald report misleading garbage about ACT’s van Veldon not follo...
    Rob MacCulloch writes –  In their rush to discredit the new government (which our MainStream Media regard as illegitimate and having no right to enact the democratic will of voters) the NZ Herald and Newshub are arguing ACT’s Deputy Leader Brooke van Veldon is not following Treasury advice ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • Top 10 for Wednesday, December 6
    Even many young people who smoke support smokefree policies, fitting in with previous research showing the large majority of people who smoke regret starting and most want to quit. Photo: Lynn GrievesonTL;DR: Here’s my pick of the top 10 news and analysis links elsewhere on the morning of Wednesday, December ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • Eleven years of work.
    Well it didn’t take six months, but the leaks have begun. Yes the good ship Coalition has inadvertently released a confidential cabinet paper into the public domain, discussing their axing of Fair Pay Agreements (FPAs).Oops.Just when you were admiring how smoothly things were going for the new government, they’ve had ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago
  • Why we're missing out on sharply lower inflation
    A wave of new and higher fees, rates and charges will ripple out over the economy in the next 18 months as mayors, councillors, heads of department and price-setters for utilities such as gas, electricity, water and parking ramp up charges. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Just when most ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • How Did We Get Here?
    Hi,Kiwis — keep the evening of December 22nd free. I have a meetup planned, and will send out an invite over the next day or so. This sounds sort of crazy to write, but today will be Tony Stamp’s final Totally Normal column of 2023. Somehow we’ve made it to ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    5 days ago
  • At a glance – Has the greenhouse effect been falsified?
    On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
    6 days ago
  • New Zealaders  have  high expectations of  new  government:  now let’s see if it can deliver?
    The electorate has high expectations of the  new  government.  The question is: can  it  deliver?    Some  might  say  the  signs are not  promising. Protestors   are  already marching in the streets. The  new  Prime Minister has had  little experience of managing  very diverse politicians  in coalition. The economy he  ...
    Point of OrderBy tutere44
    6 days ago
  • You won't believe some of the numbers you have to pull when you're a Finance Minister
    Nicola of Marsden:Yo, normies! We will fix your cost of living worries by giving you a tax cut of 150 dollars. 150! Cash money! Vote National.Various people who can read and count:Actually that's 150 over a fortnight. Not a week, which is how you usually express these things.And actually, it looks ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    6 days ago
  • Pushback
    When this government came to power, it did so on an explicitly white supremacist platform. Undermining the Waitangi Tribunal, removing Māori representation in local government, over-riding the courts which had tried to make their foreshore and seabed legislation work, eradicating te reo from public life, and ultimately trying to repudiate ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Defence ministerial meeting meant Collins missed the Maori Party’s mischief-making capers in Parli...
    Buzz from the Beehive Maybe this is not the best time for our Minister of Defence to have gone overseas. Not when the Maori Party is inviting (or should that be inciting?) its followers to join a revolution in a post which promoted its protest plans with a picture of ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago
  • Threats of war have been followed by an invitation to join the revolution – now let’s see how th...
     A Maori Party post on Instagram invited party followers to ….  Tangata Whenua, Tangata Tiriti, Join the REVOLUTION! & make a stand!  Nationwide Action Day, All details in tiles swipe to see locations.  • This is our 1st hit out and tomorrow Tuesday the 5th is the opening ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago
  • Top 10 for Tuesday, December 4
    The RBNZ governor is citing high net migration and profit-led inflation as factors in the bank’s hawkish stance. Photo: Lynn GrievesonTL;DR: Here’s my pick of the top 10 news and analysis links elsewhere on the morning of Tuesday, December 5, including:Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr says high net migration and ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago
  • Nicola Willis' 'show me the money' moment
    Willis has accused labour of “economic vandalism’, while Robertson described her comments as a “desperate diversion from somebody who can't make their tax package add up”. There will now be an intense focus on December 20 to see whether her hyperbole is backed up by true surprises. Photo montage: Lynn ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago
  • CRL costs money but also provides huge benefits
    The City Rail Link has been in the headlines a bit recently so I thought I’d look at some of them. First up, yesterday the NZ Herald ran this piece about the ongoing costs of the CRL. Auckland ratepayers will be saddled with an estimated bill of $220 million each ...
    6 days ago
  • And I don't want the world to see us.
    Is this the most shambolic government in the history of New Zealand? Given that parliament hasn’t even opened they’ve managed quite a list of achievements to date.The Smokefree debacle trading lives for tax cuts, the Trumpian claims of bribery in the Media, an International award for indifference, and today the ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    6 days ago
  • Cooking the books
    Finance Minister Nicola Willis late yesterday stopped only slightly short of accusing her predecessor Grant Robertson of cooking the books. She complained that the Half Yearly Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU), due to be made public on December 20, would show “fiscal cliffs” that would amount to “billions of ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    6 days ago
  • Most people don’t realize how much progress we’ve made on climate change
    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections The year was 2015. ‘Uptown Funk’ with Bruno Mars was at the top of the music charts. Jurassic World was the most popular new movie in theaters. And decades of futility in international climate negotiations was about to come to an end in ...
    7 days ago
  • Of Parliamentary Oaths and Clive Boonham
    As a heads-up, I am not one of those people who stay awake at night thinking about weird Culture War nonsense. At least so far as the current Maori/Constitutional arrangements go. In fact, I actually consider it the least important issue facing the day to day lives of New ...
    7 days ago
  • Bearing True Allegiance?
    Strong Words: “We do not consent, we do not surrender, we do not cede, we do not submit; we, the indigenous, are rising. We do not buy into the colonial fictions this House is built upon. Te Pāti Māori pledges allegiance to our mokopuna, our whenua, and Te Tiriti o ...
    7 days ago
  • You cannot be serious
    Some days it feels like the only thing to say is: Seriously? No, really. Seriously?OneSomeone has used their health department access to share data about vaccinations and patients, and inform the world that New Zealanders have been dying in their hundreds of thousands from the evil vaccine. This of course is pure ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    7 days ago
  • A promise kept: govt pulls the plug on Lake Onslow scheme – but this saving of $16bn is denounced...
    Buzz from the Beehive After $21.8 million was spent on investigations, the plug has been pulled on the Lake Onslow pumped-hydro electricity scheme, The scheme –  that technically could have solved New Zealand’s looming energy shortage, according to its champions – was a key part of the defeated Labour government’s ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    7 days ago
  • CHRIS TROTTER: The Maori Party and Oath of Allegiance
    If those elected to the Māori Seats refuse to take them, then what possible reason could the country have for retaining them?   Chris Trotter writes – Christmas is fast approaching, which, as it does every year, means gearing up for an abstruse general knowledge question. “Who was ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    7 days ago
  • BRIAN EASTON:  Forward to 2017
    The coalition party agreements are mainly about returning to 2017 when National lost power. They show commonalities but also some serious divergencies. Brian Easton writes The two coalition agreements – one National and ACT, the other National and New Zealand First – are more than policy documents. ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    7 days ago
  • Climate Change: Fossils
    When the new government promised to allow new offshore oil and gas exploration, they were warned that there would be international criticism and reputational damage. Naturally, they arrogantly denied any possibility that that would happen. And then they finally turned up at COP, to criticism from Palau, and a "fossil ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • GEOFFREY MILLER:  NZ’s foreign policy resets on AUKUS, Gaza and Ukraine
    Geoffrey Miller writes – New Zealand’s international relations are under new management. And Winston Peters, the new foreign minister, is already setting a change agenda. As expected, this includes a more pro-US positioning when it comes to the Pacific – where Peters will be picking up where he ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    1 week ago
  • Gordon Campbell on the government’s smokefree laws debacle
    The most charitable explanation for National’s behaviour over the smokefree legislation is that they have dutifully fulfilled the wishes of the Big Tobacco lobby and then cast around – incompetently, as it turns out – for excuses that might sell this health policy U-turn to the public. The less charitable ...
    1 week ago
  • Top 10 links at 10 am for Monday, December 4
    As Deb Te Kawa writes in an op-ed, the new Government seems to have immediately bought itself fights with just about everyone. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Here’s my pick of the top 10 news and analysis links elsewhere as of 10 am on Monday December 4, including:Palau’s President ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Be Honest.
    Let’s begin today by thinking about job interviews.During my career in Software Development I must have interviewed hundreds of people, hired at least a hundred, but few stick in the memory.I remember one guy who was so laid back he was practically horizontal, leaning back in his chair until his ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • Geoffrey Miller: New Zealand’s foreign policy resets on AUKUS, Gaza and Ukraine
    New Zealand’s international relations are under new management. And Winston Peters, the new foreign minister, is already setting a change agenda. As expected, this includes a more pro-US positioning when it comes to the Pacific – where Peters will be picking up where he left off. Peters sought to align ...
    Democracy ProjectBy Geoffrey Miller
    1 week ago
  • Auckland rail tunnel the world’s most expensive
    Auckland’s city rail link is the most expensive rail project in the world per km, and the CRL boss has described the cost of infrastructure construction in Aotearoa as a crisis. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The 3.5 km City Rail Link (CRL) tunnel under Auckland’s CBD has cost ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • First big test coming
    The first big test of the new Government’s approach to Treaty matters is likely to be seen in the return of the Resource Management Act. RMA Minister Chris Bishop has confirmed that he intends to introduce legislation to repeal Labour’s recently passed Natural and Built Environments Act and its ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    1 week ago

  • Ministers visit Hawke’s Bay to grasp recovery needs
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon joined Cyclone Recovery Minister Mark Mitchell and Transport and Local Government Minister Simeon Brown, to meet leaders of cyclone and flood-affected regions in the Hawke’s Bay. The visit reinforced the coalition Government’s commitment to support the region and better understand its ongoing requirements, Mr Mitchell says.  ...
    3 days ago
  • New Zealand condemns malicious cyber activity
    New Zealand has joined the UK and other partners in condemning malicious cyber activity conducted by the Russian Government, Minister Responsible for the Government Communications Security Bureau Judith Collins says. The statement follows the UK’s attribution today of malicious cyber activity impacting its domestic democratic institutions and processes, as well ...
    3 days ago
  • Disestablishment of Te Pūkenga begins
    The Government has begun the process of disestablishing Te Pūkenga as part of its 100-day plan, Minister for Tertiary Education and Skills Penny Simmonds says.  “I have started putting that plan into action and have met with the chair and chief Executive of Te Pūkenga to advise them of my ...
    4 days ago
  • Climate Change Minister to attend COP28 in Dubai
    Climate Change Minister Simon Watts will be leaving for Dubai today to attend COP28, the 28th annual UN climate summit, this week. Simon Watts says he will push for accelerated action towards the goals of the Paris Agreement, deliver New Zealand’s national statement and connect with partner countries, private sector leaders ...
    4 days ago
  • New Zealand to host 2024 Pacific defence meeting
    Defence Minister Judith Collins yesterday announced New Zealand will host next year’s South Pacific Defence Ministers’ Meeting (SPDMM). “Having just returned from this year’s meeting in Nouméa, I witnessed first-hand the value of meeting with my Pacific counterparts to discuss regional security and defence matters. I welcome the opportunity to ...
    4 days ago
  • Study shows need to remove distractions in class
    The Government is committed to lifting school achievement in the basics and that starts with removing distractions so young people can focus on their learning, Education Minister Erica Stanford says.   The 2022 PISA results released this week found that Kiwi kids ranked 5th in the world for being distracted ...
    4 days ago
  • Minister sets expectations of Commissioner
    Today I met with Police Commissioner Andrew Coster to set out my expectations, which he has agreed to, says Police Minister Mark Mitchell. Under section 16(1) of the Policing Act 2008, the Minister can expect the Police Commissioner to deliver on the Government’s direction and priorities, as now outlined in ...
    5 days ago
  • New Zealand needs a strong and stable ETS
    New Zealand needs a strong and stable Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) that is well placed for the future, after emission units failed to sell for the fourth and final auction of the year, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says.  At today’s auction, 15 million New Zealand units (NZUs) – each ...
    5 days ago
  • PISA results show urgent need to teach the basics
    With 2022 PISA results showing a decline in achievement, Education Minister Erica Stanford is confident that the Coalition Government’s 100-day plan for education will improve outcomes for Kiwi kids.  The 2022 PISA results show a significant decline in the performance of 15-year-old students in maths compared to 2018 and confirms ...
    6 days ago
  • Collins leaves for Pacific defence meeting
    Defence Minister Judith Collins today departed for New Caledonia to attend the 8th annual South Pacific Defence Ministers’ meeting (SPDMM). “This meeting is an excellent opportunity to meet face-to-face with my Pacific counterparts to discuss regional security matters and to demonstrate our ongoing commitment to the Pacific,” Judith Collins says. ...
    7 days ago
  • Working for Families gets cost of living boost
    Putting more money in the pockets of hard-working families is a priority of this Coalition Government, starting with an increase to Working for Families, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon says. “We are starting our 100-day plan with a laser focus on bringing down the cost of living, because that is what ...
    7 days ago
  • Post-Cabinet press conference
    Most weeks, following Cabinet, the Prime Minister holds a press conference for members of the Parliamentary Press Gallery. This page contains the transcripts from those press conferences, which are supplied by Hansard to the Office of the Prime Minister. It is important to note that the transcripts have not been edited ...
    7 days ago
  • Lake Onslow pumped hydro scheme scrapped
    The Government has axed the $16 billion Lake Onslow pumped hydro scheme championed by the previous government, Energy Minister Simeon Brown says. “This hugely wasteful project was pouring money down the drain at a time when we need to be reining in spending and focussing on rebuilding the economy and ...
    1 week ago
  • NZ welcomes further pause in fighting in Gaza
    New Zealand welcomes the further one-day extension of the pause in fighting, which will allow the delivery of more urgently-needed humanitarian aid into Gaza and the release of more hostages, Foreign Minister Winston Peters said. “The human cost of the conflict is horrific, and New Zealand wants to see the violence ...
    1 week ago
  • Condolences on passing of Henry Kissinger
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters today expressed on behalf of the New Zealand Government his condolences to the family of former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, who has passed away at the age of 100 at his home in Connecticut. “While opinions on his legacy are varied, Secretary Kissinger was ...
    1 week ago
  • Backing our kids to learn the basics
    Every child deserves a world-leading education, and the Coalition Government is making that a priority as part of its 100-day plan. Education Minister Erica Stanford says that will start with banning cellphone use at school and ensuring all primary students spend one hour on reading, writing, and maths each day. ...
    1 week ago
  • US Business Summit Speech – Regional stability through trade
    I would like to begin by echoing the Prime Minister’s thanks to the organisers of this Summit, Fran O’Sullivan and the Auckland Business Chamber.  I want to also acknowledge the many leading exporters, sector representatives, diplomats, and other leaders we have joining us in the room. In particular, I would like ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Keynote Address to the United States Business Summit, Auckland
    Good morning. Thank you, Rosemary, for your warm introduction, and to Fran and Simon for this opportunity to make some brief comments about New Zealand’s relationship with the United States.  This is also a chance to acknowledge my colleague, Minister for Trade Todd McClay, Ambassador Tom Udall, Secretary of Foreign ...
    2 weeks ago
  • India New Zealand Business Council Speech, India as a Strategic Priority
    Good morning, tēnā koutou and namaskar. Many thanks, Michael, for your warm welcome. I would like to acknowledge the work of the India New Zealand Business Council in facilitating today’s event and for the Council’s broader work in supporting a coordinated approach for lifting New Zealand-India relations. I want to also ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Coalition Government unveils 100-day plan
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has laid out the Coalition Government’s plan for its first 100 days from today. “The last few years have been incredibly tough for so many New Zealanders. People have put their trust in National, ACT and NZ First to steer them towards a better, more prosperous ...
    2 weeks ago
  • New Zealand welcomes European Parliament vote on the NZ-EU Free Trade Agreement
    A significant milestone in ratifying the NZ-EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA) was reached last night, with 524 of the 705 member European Parliament voting in favour to approve the agreement. “I’m delighted to hear of the successful vote to approve the NZ-EU FTA in the European Parliament overnight. This is ...
    3 weeks ago

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