Not with a bang but a whimper

Written By: - Date published: 7:59 am, July 17th, 2012 - 21 comments
Categories: act, elections, maori party, national - Tags:

There’s some interesting speculation that the Government could collapse within months. The theory goes that the Government could lose its majority due to 1) the Maori Party walking away over the water rights issue and 2) John Banks being forced to resign over illegally anonymised donations in the 2010 Auckland mayoral election. I don’t see it happening, yet.

Let’s take the Maori Party. They will resist walking at all costs. Which means up to the point where National legislates over the top of court decisions giving Maori proprietary rights to water (which, by the way, it now turns out Key used to acknowledge Maori had until it became politically advantageous to use the issue to create racial tension). That will take a long time. I can’t imagine a High Court decision until the end of the year at the earliest. Then, an appeal, probably right up to the Supreme Court could take us well into next year (although, if they’re losing, the Government might skip straight to legislation). Then, there’s drafting time etc. It took a year from the Court of Appeal’s decision in the Ngati Apa case (which had first been taken to court six years earlier!) for legislation to be introduced and for Tariana Turia to resign. Even if the Government starts drafting early in the process, I can’t see legislation introduced until mid-next year.

Similarly, in what seems to be the likely event that John Banks is charged with offences under the Local Elections Act, I doubt he would resign immediately. That would be an admission of guilt and Banks is constitutionally incapable of that. He will fight to the end and he will seek to delay the hearings, all while saying he wants these ‘ridiculous charges’ dealt with as soon as possible. Again, I think it will be mid to late next year before Banks’ seat is vacated (interestingly, reading the Electoral Act suggests the vacancy happens on conviction at the first court, whether there are appeals or not).

And if either of these scenarios doesn’t play out (and Peter Dunne’s hair doesn’t gain sentience and strangle him as a gift to humanity), then National would still retain the numbers – at least on confidence and supply. If both those events do happen, then it’s still late 2013 before National loses its majority in the House – and that is assuming the Maori Party votes against the government, rather than abstain. I tend to think they would abstain. And that loss of a majority would be temporary – about 3 months – as Banks’ replacement would almost certainly be from National. A confidence vote instigated by the Opposition in a scenario where the Maori Party has switched sides and Banks’ seat is empty would fail on a 60-60 draw.

But I don’t think it’s all bad news. If an election were held now, National might profit from Key’s playing of the race card. Far better that court action delay the asset sales for a year at least, and the Government stumbles on, unable to do anything, bleeding support at around 0.5-1% a month as it has over the past year (I’m not sure why people are calling that a gentle decline, btw, that decline adds up over the months and this is a government that has a one seat majority on rightwing policies).

If I was the Greens and Labour, I would be preparing for an election in late 2013. But I don’t think it will actually happen. This Government is more likely to hobble all the way through.

(PS. Key has just said he will “listen in good faith” to the findings of the Waitangi Tribunal on water. A week late, mate. You just spent a week dissing the Tribunal and intimating that you would ignore its findings)

21 comments on “Not with a bang but a whimper”

  1. I agree about Banks holding on to the bitter end.

    But presuming he is charged Key will have to stand Banks down as Minister and the pressure then will be enormous.  Banks will not like this one bit.

    And I am not sure about the Maori Party.  Manu Paul, co leader of the Maori Council has urged the Maori Party to walk away from the coalition while its mana is intact.  On radio he used the word “kupapa” meaning collaborator, in describing those who continued to support the Government.  He said if they had mana they would walk. 

    I guess it is a hard choice for Tariana and Pita.  Do they keep the limos or do they keep their mana?

    • Jim Nald 1.1

      Once upon a time, Tariana would be on the media and frequently invoke the expression “my people”. How can she, with integrity and authenticity, say that these days?? So what is in it for her now: people or baubles of office?

      Re “This Government is more likely to hobble all the way through” – taking a spiritual and religious approach, and with a comment from a Feng Shui Master, there are some things not within human control (and there is no intention here to wish illwill on them): mortality.

    • Tom Gould 1.2

      More likely that Banks is not charged on the basis that there is insufficient hard evidence to secure a conviction, and that the baubles will prove too alluring for their mana-enhancing collaborators. Business as usual. This is Tory politics Key-style, remember. The quaint old rules do not apply. The test is what can you get away with. Besides, they have a few juicy distractions in the pipeline.

      • Dr Terry 1.2.1

        Yes, Tom, I think this is fairly realistic.Let’s wait to see how Key greases Sharples and Turia back in to line!

        • jack 1.2.1.1

          Yes, he’ll grease them with our taxpayer’s money or assets and we will be left paying the bills AGAIN!!! Key is such a generous man with my hard working money. Not to get off the subject but I heard on the news 2/3 of the army is thinking of quiting because of low moral. Key is such a leader, isn’t he? Every time I hear him speak my stomach turns and I have to change the channel. He’ll go down as the worst Prime Minister.

      • deuto 1.2.2

        More likely that Banks is not charged on the basis that there is insufficient hard evidence to secure a conviction.

        The ‘ironic’ thing about this, if it is the case, is that it would not surprise me if Dotcom with all his IT saavy and equipment etc did not have recordings, CCTV evidence etc of the wheeling dealing on the conversation re splitting the donation – BUT where is any such evidence? Taken by the Police during the raid …………..

        • Lanthanide 1.2.2.1

          Dotcom seems to be very anti-Banks and anti-National, lately. I’m sure if he had any such evidence, even if it had been confiscated, he’d have made it public. He’s the likely source of the scans of the cheques that John Campbell got hold of.

    • Rosie 1.3

      “Do they keep their limo’s or do they keep their mana?”

      It would show dignity, empowerment and their integrity would be left in tact if Pita Sharples and Tariana Turia walked away and left the Govt without one of it’s partners. By walking away and not, yet again, bowing to the Nat Govt they would be showing solidarity with their voters and possibly the whole of Maoridom.
      How likely is it though? Both Sharples and Turia seem to be clinging on with their fingernails. Sharples, when questioned on Maori TV last year by a skeptical Julian Wilcox, has always come back to his determination to stay “inside Government to benefit our people”. This is a line he has repeated in recent times too in other media sources.
      Perhaps it would take a great change in thinking or some genuine and deep belief in what Maanu Paul is suggesting for them too walk.

      In the meantime I will continue with my daily affirmation that some disaster will befall this most vile National Govt.

      • felix 1.3.1

        That whole “inside govt to benefit our people” was a reasonable – if naive – position in the first couple of years, but surely Pita knows this is the maori Party’s last term.

        This is their final chance to “benefit our people” and they’re turning away from it.

        And for what?

  2. bbfloyd 2

    Taniara Turia is hoist far too high on her own petard to be able to climb back down now….Pita has been trapped to securely to be able to wriggle out without doing a “hone”…. Sad really…

    So much good will, and support wasted….

  3. vto 3

    As I said long times ago – Key will fail at the pinnacle. It is written in his being.

    And now we see it beginning, the long slow fall. You could see it yesterday on his face when he admitted that the asset sales will falter.

    It is written in the ground he walks on, the air he breathes… He got his plan not quite right, not quite perfect, he relaxed at the last, or rather, didn’t think as carefully when penning his last chapter.

    it’s over

    • Pascal's bookie 3.1

      See these golden rules of banking, from none other but them thar radical leftits at the Economist:

      http://www.economist.com/node/21558584

      esp:

      There is a survivorship bias in both fund management and trading. If your career starts with some bad losses, it will quickly come to an end. So, by definition, veteran traders will have had initial success. But that could be down to luck, not skill.

      Successful fund managers attract more clients and thus manage more money. This will keep happening until they have a bad year, when clients will desert them. Their worst result will thus occur when they have the most money to look after. They may end up losing more client money in cash terms than they ever made.

      Similarly, successful traders will be given more responsibility, first heading their departments and then leading the bank itself. They will gain a reputation as the kind of person who can handle risk, and they will believe their own publicity. The likes of Dick Fuld of Lehman Brothers and Jon Corzine at MF Global seemed to regard caution as a quality for wimps.

      This is a variant of the Peter principle, which holds that managers get promoted to their level of incompetence. The trader-cum-executive will make the biggest mistake when he is in charge of the whole bank. By this stage, he will be personally rich and will remain so even if the entire bank fails

    • Dr Terry 3.2

      Agreed vto, but regretfully, the fall is so slow and so long in happening. Key does not think, he schemes and is faltering even there (or so it appears).

  4. Bored 4

    Peter Dunne’s hair doesn’t gain sentience and strangle him as a gift to humanity and PG cant even answer back today. Ouch!

  5. lcmortensen 5

    A 60-60 draw may not be a threat to confidence, but it is to supply – if any bill concerning supply fails, then that is treated as a successful vote of no confidence.
     

    • Zetetic 5.1

      They would move heaven and earth to make sure the vacancy didn’t coincide with the budget

  6. vto 6

    Down here in the South Island we can hear from Wellington the cries of men in the rigging, “all hands on deck” and “man the bilges” as HMS Failing bears down on the hard reefs of Maoridom……. lashing rain, cold and dark, creaaakk, grrooooaaannn, yells and rats jumping….

  7. bad12 7

    Our Slippery Prime Minister cannot deny that Maori have ‘rights’ over fresh water in rivers lakes and streams, and, after Paki V Crown at the Court of Appeal He can hardly deny that Maori have ‘rights’ to the ownership of river beds,

    The 2 faced abusive little twat we currently,(and hopefully not for much longer), have as Prime Minister has been for the past four years conducting negotiations behind closed doors with the ‘Iwi Leaders Group’ over the very issue of those rights Maori do have to fresh water and to attempt now to deny such rights exist and always have is sheer hypocrisy from the little shyster,

    I just wonder when the Crown will begin to behave like human beings and not craven cowards when dealing with Maori over the present water issues and other ‘take’ put befor the Waitangi Tribunal,

    To say the least it is fitting that those who first gained ‘ownership’ of lakes in this country through a decision of the Native Land Court in 1883 were behind the Paki V Crown challenge in the Court of Appeal which recently stated that the same people the Crown ripped off after the 1883 Native Land Court ruling have ‘ownership rights’ over the river bed at Pouakani, (which is now Lake Maraetai),

    Our Slippery Prime Minister can spit abuse at the Waitangi Tribunal and the claimants befor it all He likes, but, justice will be done and justice will seen to be done and the sooner that f**king little shyster wakes up to that fact and begins to negotiate openly in good faith with all the stakeholders over Maori rights to fresh water the sooner we all will see that justice done…

  8. Poission 8

    The problems (with regard to Banks) arises from when he is charged.

    1) Does he still frequent parliament and vote ?

    2) Does he step aside (with leave from the speaker)

    3) Is his proxy valid ?

    4) Will the government use the proxy of a suspected criminal?

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • Government pays twice the price for emergency housing motels – with two more on the way
    Under Labour’s plan to build at least 1000 state houses each year, New Zealand wouldn’t be paying more than double the valuations for motels to house Kiwis needing emergency housing, says Labour’s Social Development spokesperson Carmel Sepuloni. “Under questioning today, ...
    12 hours ago
  • HAM shows country needs Labour on housing
    The latest Housing Affordability Measure report shows affordability dramatically worsening for Auckland first home buyers, says Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford. ...
    14 hours ago
  • Canterbury kids get more support for mental health
    Children in Canterbury and Kaikoura will get dedicated mental health support to help them overcome the trauma of the earthquakes, says the Leader of the Opposition Jacinda Ardern. “We’ll fund an extra eighty mental health professionals for the next three ...
    19 hours ago
  • Statement on Julie Bishop’s comments
    It is highly regrettable that the Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop has chosen to make false claims about the New Zealand Labour Party. I have been utterly transparent about this situation. I stand by my statements this morning that I ...
    2 days ago
  • Labour stands with Pike families
    A Labour Government will stand with the families of Pike River and reaffirm its commitment to safe workplaces by ensuring there will be a Minister responsible for Pike River, says Leader of the Opposition Jacinda Ardern. “The Pike River disaster ...
    2 days ago
  • Yes to Sallies – Labour will build more state houses
    The Salvation Army’s latest report ‘Taking Stock’ shows why New Zealand needs a Labour-led Government committed to a massive house building programme, says Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford. “When the Sallies say the country needs 2000 extra state houses a ...
    2 days ago
  • New Zealanders deserve better than scaremongering over water
    New Zealanders need to hear from National about how they will fund the clean-up of our rivers and lakes for future generations. Instead, National has broadened its scare-mongering, says Labour’s Water spokesperson David Parker. ...
    3 days ago
  • School Leavers’ Toolkit to equip young people for adult life
    Labour will give school leavers the practical skills and knowledge they need for adult life with a new School Leavers’ Toolkit, says Leader of the Opposition Jacinda Ardern. “Our teachers and schools do a great job of teaching our children ...
    3 days ago
  • Pay equity to be a priority for Labour
      Labour will make sure that the country’s mental health workers are a priority when it comes to pay equity negotiations, says the Leader of the Opposition Jacinda Ardern.  “It is very important for me to right the wrong created ...
    5 days ago
  • Labour’s positive education plan
    Today’s announcement on learning support is more tinkering and proof that only a Labour Government will deliver the resources that schools and parents are crying out for, says Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins.  “We have a positive vision for a ...
    6 days ago
  • Pike footage raises questions over government’s actions
    The Government’s seeming determination to turn a blind eye to new questions about what happened at Pike River Mine is troubling, says Labour’s West Coast-Tasman MP Damien O’Connor. ...
    6 days ago
  • Solution to rent rises lies in building houses and stopping speculators
    The spread of rental increases from the big cities to the surrounding regions shows why we need to get on top of the housing shortage build homes our families can afford, and lock out the speculators, says Labour’s Housing spokesperson ...
    6 days ago
  • Clean rivers don’t cost $18 a cabbage
    National is falling into a bad pattern of promising the world and not saying how they will fund it, says Labour’s Water spokesperson David Parker. ...
    7 days ago
  • Time for honest answer on transport funding
    National needs to explain how they will fund the $6 billion funding gap in their 10-year Auckland transport plan, says Labour’s Auckland Issues spokesperson Phil Twyford. ...
    7 days ago
  • Time for true numbers on overseas speculators
    It’s time for the Government to give accurate figures on the number of houses being bought by overseas speculators, says Labour’s Land Information spokesperson Raymond Huo. ...
    7 days ago
  • Fair and sustainable trade: A Green Party vision for New Zealand’s trading relationships
    Trade is a cornerstone of the New Zealand economy. It provides us with the things we want and need, and enables us to pay for those with exports that generate business opportunities and jobs. However, it should be recognised that ...
    GreensBy Barry Coates
    7 days ago
  • Clean rivers for future generations
    Labour will lead a nationwide effort to restore our rivers and lakes to a clean, swimmable state, says Leader of the Opposition Jacinda Ardern. ...
    1 week ago
  • New Zealand really can do better on health
    Labour’s commitment to affordable access to high quality healthcare will provide a better service for New Zealanders than the current Health Minister, who will not apologise for statements that he made that wrongly criticised hard-working staff in the Southern DHB’s ...
    1 week ago
  • Labour’s plan the answer to motorway chaos
    Labour’s plan to build a light rail network and improve heavy rail and bus services across Auckland is the only answer to the kind of motorway congestion Aucklanders endured this morning, says Labour Transport spokesperson Phil Twyford. ...
    1 week ago
  • Labour to build rail to Auckland Airport
    A world class city needs a rail connection from the CBD to its international airport – that’s why Labour will build light rail to Auckland Airport as a priority, says Leader of the Opposition Jacinda Ardern.  “Let’s get Auckland moving ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Is pay equity just too hard for this Govt?
    You are hard pressed these days to find someone that openly admits their misogyny, that men should still be paid more than women. Politicians proclaim that they want to see women paid more, but do their actions back it up? ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie
    2 weeks ago
  • Labour’s commitment to our Rainbow nation
    The Labour Party has reaffirmed its commitment to New Zealand’s rainbow community with its 2017 Rainbow policy, featuring the goal to end HIV in New Zealand by 2025. Grant Robertson says Labour continues a long and proud tradition of advocating ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Labour’s vision for Auckland more than reheated roads
    Labour is more ambitious for Auckland than the reheated set of transport projects proposed by National, says Labour’s Auckland Issues spokesperson Phil Twyford. ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Waiting urology patients are the tip of the iceberg
    The 10 patients waiting for urology surgery at Dunedin Hospital are just the tip of the iceberg, says Labour’s Health spokesperson David Clark.  "Hundreds of patients are waiting for follow-up appointments, but they are not deemed serious enough to be ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Maori Landowners Misled by Maori Party
    Māori landowners are being misled by Government hui being held throughout the country promoting the troubled Māori Land Service (MLS), which underpins the Crown’s unpopular Ture Whenua reforms, says Labour’s Ikaroa-Rāwhiti MP Meka Whaitiri. ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Government’s Johnny-come-lately approach to multinational tax won’t wash
    It’s a case of baby steps for a Government that still allows multinational companies to avoid paying their fair share of tax, says Labour’s Revenue spokesperson Michael Wood. “After nine years in government, five years after the issue of multinational ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Auckland congestion up there with the world’s worst
    Traffic congestion is costing Auckland up to $2 billion in lost productivity according to the latest report from the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research, says Labour’s Transport spokesperson Michael Wood.  “This is a disaster and underlines the need for ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Experience in Youth Parliament 2016
    Being a Member of Youth Parliament was an unexpected, but fabulous opportunity for me. It provided me a way to connect with other young people who have some things in common, and to learn what it is like to be ...
    GreensBy NZ Green Party
    2 weeks ago
  • Labour backs renters’ call for warm, healthy homes
    80 per cent of renters wish their home was warmer and drier, and that’s what Labour will deliver, says Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford. ...
    2 weeks ago
  • We can – and must – do better for Kiwi jobs
    Labour has the plan to get more young New Zealanders into jobs and tackle concerns raised in the latest statistics which show an extra 3000 young Kiwis are neither earning or learning compared to the same time last year, says ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Statement from Jacinda Ardern, Leader of the New Zealand Labour Party
    I want to start by giving my thanks to Andrew. His announcement today and the situation we have found ourselves in is not what anyone expected or wanted In my time working with Andrew I know one thing to be ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Better homes for Maori under Labour
    Labour’s vision is that Māori enjoy an equal playing field and have the same home ownership opportunities as non-Māori, says Labour’s Māori Development spokesperson Kelvin Davis. “Today Labour is proud to announce a detailed Māori housing policy from South Auckland’s ...
    3 weeks ago
  • Labour to build replacement for Gorge Road
    Labour will build a new road to replace the Manawatu Gorge Road as quickly as possible, says Leader of the Opposition Andrew Little. ...
    3 weeks ago
  • Government suppresses better transport options for Auckland
    A newly-revealed un-redacted report into options for Auckland freight movement shows the Government has been actively trying to suppress more efficient and cost-effective options to construct a third rail line, says Labour’s Transport spokesperson Michael Wood. “While Auckland’s congestion gets ...
    3 weeks ago
  • How to vote and keep your info private
    Going to vote or enrolling to vote can be scary. Having your details out there can open a can of worms. I wish we lived in a country where everyone was safe and secure enough to be openly enrolled, but ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie
    3 weeks ago
  • Coleman’s lost control of his Ministry
    Basic blunders and chronic underfunding revealed in Treasury documents obtained by Labour clearly show Health Minister Jonathan Coleman has lost control of his ministry, says Labour’s Health spokesperson David Clark. “Every New Zealander deserves affordable access to quality healthcare but ...
    3 weeks ago

%d bloggers like this: