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NRT: Sensationalising the status quo

Written By: - Date published: 1:41 pm, September 4th, 2014 - 55 comments
Categories: election 2014, Media, national, Politics, same old national, tv, you couldn't make this shit up - Tags: , ,

no-right-turn-256Reposted from No Right Turn

Pity the political reporter. Committed to horse-race style reporting, having to comment on polls whose poll-to-poll shifts are almost entirely statistical noise, desperate for an angle. And so we had Patrick Gower on 3 News last night desperately talking up how “complicated’ National’s post-election coalition arrangements would be:

John Key’s path to re-election has become even more complicated.

Tonight’s 3 News-Reid Research political poll still has National in the lead, but the Maori Party could be in control.

[…]

But Mr Key’s still got plenty of problems – even with ACT and United Future he would not have a majority.

Based on the poll, National would either need New Zealand First leader Winston Peters to get a majority or have to rely on the Maori Party to pass every law.

The problem? This “complicated” situation is the status quo. National effectively lost its majority when they sacked Peter Dunne from Cabinet and lost his support in June last year. Since then, they’ve been reliant on the Maori Party to pass legislation. Even now they’ve reinstated Dunne, changes in his policy and the meltdown of ACT have meant they’ve effectively got to go through the Maori Party to get anything done. Or was one of our top political reporters so busy looking at the horse race that they missed the change in the bigger picture?

 


 

55 comments on “NRT: Sensationalising the status quo”

  1. Tracey 1

    Wouldn’t they require Winston too?

    • You_Fool 1.1

      3news gives just over 50% to Nat/Act/UF/Maori so hence the maori party can be kingmakers too.

      Also, Note the wording of the report “National would either need New Zealand First leader Winston Peters to get a majority or have to rely on the Maori Party to pass every law.”

  2. Dont worry. Be happy 2

    Yes they lie. And bluster and bully, smear and threaten….But is there more?

    Consider the vast amounts of money at risk, not just here, but internationally, if NZ sucessfully pulls an economic version of its nuclear free stand.

    What would ” they ” do to protect that?

    Car accident?

    Heart attack?

    Plane/ helicopter crash?

    • Puckish Rogue 2.1

      Seriously?

      • Tracey 2.1.1

        Read the Paradise Conspiracy for your answer

        • Puckish Rogue 2.1.1.1

          I miss the X-files as well…

          • Tracey 2.1.1.1.1

            You would accept it because it is written by Ian Wishart, a friend of the Right.

            You do expend alot of energy refusing to critically think, dont you

            http://www.investigatemagazine.com/newshop/contents/en-us/d12.html

            • Puckish Rogue 2.1.1.1.1.1

              Ian Wishart writes a lot things, he wrote some things about an alleged incident involving a certain PMs spouse

              As I said X-files

              • Tracey

                Do you ever re read comments after you posted them?

                • Puckish Rogue

                  Sometimes, to correct really bad spelling mistakes (fat finger syndrome) and obvious grammatical errors

                  My point is Wishart says a lot of things and usually (mostly) they’re of the conspicracy theory kind

                  Last time i heard him he was banging on something about the Smart/Hope murders being something to do with white slave traders without a whit of evidence

                  so I pretty much ignore everything he says

                  • Tracey

                    Truly, read paradise conspiracy. It has lots of evidence, is not political per se. I had some involvement in the periphery of it.

                    In particular the death of someone covered in tge book.

                    Who killed him, or was it an accident will never be known, but it dislodges any notion that nz is free of certain types of grubbiness which may well extend to “hits” by multi national companies.

                    It is genuinely worth a read. It is NOT a dirty politics type read.

            • Paul 2.1.1.1.1.2

              It’s called wilful ignorance.
              Or the ‘I’m alright jack’ approach.
              Or just simple laziness.
              Too many of NZ’s middle classes have been distracted and dumbed down by 30 years of neo liberal doctrine.
              Sadly the Nats appeal to their selfishness and they can’t see this aspirational stuff as pie in the sky.

  3. swordfish 3

    On the broader Poll front, our close chum and confidante, a Mr Puckish Rogue, has been excitedly shouting the odds on Open Mike today. Apparently, all the post-Dirty Politics Polls show National is “holding firm”, while Labour and the Greens are plummeting like a lead balloon.

    Reality:

    7 polls have been carried out since the release of Dirty Politics:

    5 have National down (by an average of 3.3 points – ranging from down 2 to down 4.9 points)

    2 have National up (by an average of 1 point)

    • swordfish 3.1

      4 of the 7 Polls have Lab+Green up (by an average of 3.2 points)

      3 have them down (average 2.1)

      So, overall, the weight of post-Dirty Politics polling opinion has the Nats down and Lab+Green up. The unending stream of bollocks emanating from our resident wannabe Tory Spin-meisters, notwithstanding.

      • David H 3.1.1

        I see that Stuff’a poll is about 5 points out of kilter with anyone else. What do they do just ring the same people all the time? Also they never seem to have undecided voters either.

        And then there’s this.

        At the end of the survey we examine our data and apply weights to remove any biases that might occur. For example we find we have too many or too few of a particular quota. Weighting the data ensures the final sample looks as close as possible to the actual population.

        So what they don’t like how it looks and play with it until we get the usual 5 points out of whack difference?

        Edit to put in Blockquotes but the ending /blockquote does not seem to work

    • Puckish Rogue 3.2

      I might be a miss, you shouldn’t assume 🙂

      • swordfish 3.2.1

        Sorry, Ms Rogue.

        • Tracey 3.2.1.1

          Whatever the sex, critical, independant thinking is not a skill in PRs repetoire.

          FOP

        • Puckish Rogue 3.2.1.2

          Naah Its all good, I’m a Mr but seriously I think even the most one-eyed leftie would have to concede that the dirty Politics hasn’t hurt National as much as they thought it might

          • Tracey 3.2.1.2.1

            That is a seriously expensive and resource intensive image Mr Key has. Given the 6+ years of strategic lying and filthy behaviour behind the scenes, I, for one, think any drop is a success. You ought to read the book. Seriously.

            • Puckish Rogue 3.2.1.2.1.1

              Well thats good spin, so how would you spin Labour dropping in the polls?

              • Tracey

                Its not spin. Read Hollow Men and Dirty Politics both of which have supporting evidence. Only those with eyes wide shut would think what i said is spin.

                Now, as for your second comment, read swordfish again, my comment again, and then think for a sec. I have actually answered that already

                • Puckish Rogue

                  Hes talking Lab/Grn, I’m asking why is Labour dropping in the polls?

                  • Tracey

                    Go look at RM.

                  • McFlock

                    Because the greens seem to campaign better than Labour, who seem to campaign better than the corrupt tories.

                    Why are you incapable of thinking for yourself?

                    • Puckish Rogue

                      i think its because the people of NZ know that Labour are as bad as National (also that the IMP are in on it as well), thats why the votes Labour are shedding are going to the Greens

                    • McFlock

                      It could just be that cunliffe loses votes every minute he stands on the stage beside key and doesn’t thump him in the face for being a lying prick.

                      But then by your perspective a ~1% drop is “shedding votes” when it’s Labour, but when national do it (RM avgd w/ tv3) they’re “holding firm”.

    • Bob 3.3

      “Apparently, all the post-Dirty Politics Polls show National is “holding firm”, while Labour and the Greens are plummeting like a lead balloon.”
      Interesting that you have given National’s performance but missed the second half of PR’s position. How are Labour and the Greens going?
      Off the top of my head I would say Labour are performing worse than National since the book was released and the Greens are picking up some of Labours vote.

      • swordfish 3.3.1

        No need to do it off the top of your head, Robert. Just look at the Lab+Green figures I set out in my earlier comment (published about 8 minutes before yours).

        • Puckish Rogue 3.3.1.1

          IMHO the problem for the left is that Labour/Greens going up means that the IMPs party vote is going down so even if Hone wins (and it looks like Kelvin Davis is doing well so thats not a given) he won’t bring anyone in with him

          Whereas Nationals vote seems to be going to Colin Craig and Winnie and i don’t think anyones brave enough to say what Winnie will do and CC is creeping towards 5%

          So all in all the elections getting interesting

      • Tracey 3.3.2

        3.2.1.1 for Bob too

  4. Corokia 4

    The Nats needing the Maori party- Tama Iti working with John Key, really?

    • Puckish Rogue 4.1

      National did very good work on the treaty settlements whereas Labour shafted Maori over the foreshore

      • Tracey 4.1.1

        Youseem to have forgotten that Nats voted against Labours S and 4sure bill because it didnt go far enough.

        The Maori Party, imo, will be the better for Turia resigning because she allowed too many decisions to be made based on her hatred for clark, and bedded down with parties who want the treay gone, maori seats gone and no protection for maori in s and 4sure.

        • Puckish Rogue 4.1.1.1

          This might be true as well, which is why I’m loving this election…so many things could happen

        • weka 4.1.1.2

          Actually I think PR is closer to the truth for many Māori. Iti’s words,

          “Not very long ago I wouldn’t have thought about it but I see there’s more achievement…with National in terms of the treaty settlements so we have come a long way,” he said.

          Having a Maori voice in power had led to gains in areas such as health and social services for Maori and it was important for Maori “to be sitting on the table rather than across the road throwing rocks at each other”.

          http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/10418392/Tame-Iti-to-stand-for-Maori-Party

          The way I read that is, it’s not about being National’s partners, it’s about positioning Māori so they get some kind of power. Which is a pretty damning indictment of Pākehā society.

          • Tracey 4.1.1.2.1

            I wouldnt want my comment to be seen as an endorsement of the clark govts work on behalf of Maori.

            MP has still been the poorer cousin to ACT despite having more MPs.

            With IMP and Greens i think MP could achieve MUCH more and genuine power.

            • Puckish Rogue 4.1.1.2.1.1

              The Greens have been around for what 24 years now and how many MPs have they had in power, real power…none whereas the Maori Party has had a taste of power

              • Tracey

                24 years ago almost, if no, political party had policies on the environment.

                The national home insulation programme is the Greens.

                You are only making yourself look foolish.

                • weka

                  It’s alright, PR thinks that the person with the real power is the person with the biggest stick.

                • Puckish Rogue

                  A mere sop, a tidbit thrown to them

                  Labour gets it but the Greens don’t

                  • disturbed

                    PR, Sensationalising your NatZ performance is pathetic at best.

                    Are you really that worried (or your NatZ employer)
                    that you have to keep spinning your rubbish just to get paid, cant you find areal job?

                    Best you focus on how your boss is conspiring to gag the press today in court today as he is a mate of Slater right?

                    Opps that’s right you haven’t read the book “Dirty Politics” so how would you and your junta know how damaging it is to your glorious NatZ.

                    What a farce for someone like the NatZ who have consistently been leaking dirty politics to the press for years now!

                    This is only now reported to be tearing your beloved NatZ network apart with their leaked emails showing NZ the disturbing filth you deal in.

                    After the election as you mob are shown the door, it wont be hard for you since you are already living somewhere else.

    • weka 4.2

      Tame, pronounced Tah meh.

      What makes you think he won’t work with Key?

    • alwyn 4.3

      Tama Iti working with National, you ask.
      He seemed to think it was possible. When he announced he wanted to stand he said that Maori had done much better being in Government with National than the had ever done prior to that.
      On the other hand he is number 7 on the list, and not standing in an electorate so the party would have to get about 6% or better of the party vote to get him in. The chances of that happening don’t seem very high.

  5. Dont worry. Be happy 5

    @Puckish Rogue….

    Yes seriously, the powerful have never hesitated to murder to preserve their position.

    You can call that X Files if it amuses you.

    Others call it history.

    Why should NZ be immune?

    Who, before the Rainbow Warrior was blown up in Auckland harbour, would have believed that the secret services of an ally would infiltrate a peace movement and try to murder its entire crew?

    • alwyn 5.1

      Well, no-one really.
      There was no question that the French wanted to disrupt the Greenpeace activities and sink the boat.
      They did not think, apparently, that there would be anyone on the boat so saying that they would “try to murder its entire crew?” is pushing things a bit.
      And no, I am not trying to justify any of their actions in any way.

      • Inky 5.1.1

        If you attach a bomb to anything, you’re prepared to kill people, ie in this case you’re prepared to kill all on board. You can’t possibly know who’s going to be on the thing when you detonate your lethal device. And you couldn’t justify their actions if your tried because it can’t be justified. Slip into this country and attack an unarmed vessel? Despicable. The French should never be forgiven for that. Would they have had the nerve to try it on at a US, British or Russian port? Nah, they chose to hit a soft target in a tiny country because they knew there’d be no chance of some serious payback. Gutless.

      • Murray Olsen 5.1.2

        When you have two explosive devices, with one rigged to go off ten minutes or so after the first, your intent is to kill people. The first does some damage and may kill people on the boat, but anyone still able will get off. After a short while, they worry about people still on board or their possessions, and rush back on board. It’s a standard technique.

  6. The greens and Imp sharing power is not going to happen. irrespective of shenanigans going on which I do accept is not a good look, but as puckish rogue indicates is hardly a National Party only issues. National (well Collins did, the rest is just one sided extrapolation) got caught by criminal activity but I am sure on the left there are few thinking there go I, but for the grace of god This is the crux of the impact of this sorry saga in the polls. The general populace see through the spin of both sides here, on the right to play it down, on the left to play it up, however it still does not change the fact that 60pc plus of the country summing national, act, conservatives. UF, nzf , labours right constituency don’t buy the hard left policy of green labour coalition, hence votes are simply shifting around the right, with labour degrading as they are also been seen to be part of dirty politics Dirty politics no matter how dirty is not going to drive kiwis towards hard left socialism. Labour lite with little green influence yes, labour with strong green influence and lunatic fringe, I don’t think so

  7. Adrian 7

    Have you noticed that almost all of the comments from the right on this post have the same prose style, almost identical syntatical flaws, length of sentences and methodology of argument.
    They must have all been written by the same person.
    Who?

  8. National did rely on the Maori Party, but let’s not forget that the Maori Party itself may not be in such great shape, post September. They don’t look like keeping all their seats.

    I’m slowly resigning myself to this lot being re-elected, dirty politics & all, supported by ACT & Dunne (1 seat each) and Maori Party (1 or 2 seats), with Peters essentially on the throne.

    It’s the last bit that has me most spooked. How would Peters structure a coalition agreement, when so many of his ‘bottom lines’ seem at 180 degrees to Key’s? Which bits would he give away?

    I’m resigning to it, but I think it would be very bad news for the recovery of NZ, and I hope I’m wrong.

    • David H 8.1

      If TricKey and his merry band of Megalomaniacs get back into power. Just watch NZ become the stinking, polluted, latest member of the PIGS. But they are dragging themselves out of their problems. Ours will start on Sept 21.

      It will be sell it, mine it, drill it, and welfare and wages, oh cut them too.

  9. philj 9

    PR
    How much are you paid for your comments on ts? If not ‘paid’ , why do you stir? Attention seeking, lonely…? I await your honest response.

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  • Crown accounts stronger than forecast with higher consumer spending
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  • Funding for Predator Free Whangārei
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  • Coastal Shipping Webinar
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  • Support for resilient rail connection to the West Coast
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  • Appointment of Judge of the High Court
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  • Dual place names for Te Pātaka-o-Rākaihautū / Banks Peninsula features
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  • Government and Air New Zealand agree to manage incoming bookings
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  • $80 million for sport recovery at all levels
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