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Oh, Yulia!

Written By: - Date published: 3:05 pm, July 18th, 2018 - 60 comments
Categories: International, making shit up, Russia, uk politics - Tags: , ,

A perfume bottle containing a toxin that had been used to poison Sergei Skripal has turned up.

Now, right from the get-go, UK authorities have pointed the finger at the Russian government. Anyone reading any commentary I’ve made on the UK’s allegations will know I think those allegations have more holes than Swiss Cheese. I’m not going to run through all the preposterous nonsense put out by UK authorities that we’re meant to have taken on board.

Instead, here are some questions.

The toxin (novichok according to UK authorities) was apparently contained in a perfume bottle. That perfume bottle was found by a fossicker whose partner seemingly sprayed her wrists with some of it. She died. He was taken ill. So presumably,  someone is up for manslaughter or murder.

Are we still going to go with highly trained operatives smearing a door handle with toxins? Delivered from a perfume bottle?  I mean, seriously. All that mist spray? And why throw the container away afterwards?

A double agent working for British Intelligence was likely responsible for hundreds of deaths. I think the number of people wanting to see him dead would make for a rather long shopping list of potential suspects. And exhaustive as that list may be, there are enough women in this world who harbour understandable hatred for their fathers, that I see no compelling reason to exclude Yulia Skripal from that list.

In short, I think Yulia Skripal may well have brought the container into the country (She flew in from Russia immediately prior to the poisoning).  And I also think, that since the recovery of that bottle, she’s in deep shit.

Had she had unwittingly poisoned her father (set up by her fiance for example), that perfume bottle would have turned up much sooner…like, on her person. Had she been a target of a third party, she could have fingered who the assailant was upon regaining consciousness. Failing that, she could at least have said how and when the attack took place.

But there have been no suspects, and no requests for sightings of anyone suspicious, or for any suspicious goings on.

Would anyone like to speculate on the unlikely possibility that DS Nick Bailey picked the bottle up from the scene of the poisoning and ran away to hide it? That would explain his poisoning and leave Yulia with a case of plausible deniability. Yeah, a bit tenuous.

But what’s the scenario for someone who’s realised they’ve exposed themselves to a toxic nerve agent? I’d be thinking they make an effort to get rid of the incriminating evidence in whatever time they think they may have left before the effects hit.

So maybe we can begin to see why Yulia was apparently “less than keen” to have any contact with Russian authorities. On the basis that her fiance or some other Russian source is somehow connected, I can see that Russian authorities might have some awkward questions for her to answer.

Meanwhile, until such times as that container turned up, Yulia might have been hoping against hope that she could somehow skyte her way out of this.

Ah, conjecture upon conjecture. It’s quite fun. And never worth getting too emotionally wound up over – just saying 🙂

So anyway, from where I’m sitting, it looks ever increasingly as though the British government has spun a rather tangled web from its own conjecture, and acted out against the Russian government on the basis of ideological conviction rather than any concrete evidence. I’m quite looking forward to seeing how they attempt to square the various circles they’ve created.

60 comments on “Oh, Yulia! ”

  1. Ah Bill, Bill,

    “O, what a tangled web we weave when first we practise to deceive!” Walter Scott

    • RedLogix 1.1

      But when we have the art perfected, it’s time to go and get elected!

      Hot Water Sailor

  2. McFlock 2

    edit: scratch that. CBF.

  3. bwaghorn 3

    What’s the odds a couple of junkies are hired to deliver the poison then some weeks later accidentally poisoned them selves hiding the bottle .
    I say this just to prove no one that is not involved could really have a clue what happened.

  4. marty mars 4

    .

  5. Stuart Munro 5

    Meh – nothing unlikely about the perfume bottle – it had to get into the country somehow. So the user threw it away – again no surprise – it’s not as if murder weapons aren’t often thrown into a canal if one is handy.

    Way to go victim blaming Yulia though Bill. Classy.

    • Bill 5.1

      Victim blaming? Maybe.

      Highly trained Russian operatives, a copy of whose training manual is in the possession of the UK government (apparently), use a bottle of spray perfume(!) to coat a door handle and then lob it.

      Their target – so we’re to believe – is a washed up spy previously released from jail in a spy swap, and his daughter (Why her too?) The choice of execution is almost guaranteed to blow the lid on their (according to the UK government again) highly secret nerve weapon programme…that produces nerve agents that aren’t that flash on the fatality front.

      If speculation around patricide upsets your sensibilities, then why not Sergei and his daughter procured the toxin because they themselves had a target in mind? Or something else altogether. Whatever…there are a dozen imaginable scenarios that fit with what is known (which isn’t a lot). But from that “not a lot”, some pretty damned obvious questions arise in relation to the “official” version of events that even a mostly dull and only occasionally, but even then, merely mildly curious mind might feel compelled to ask.

      Because the point is that the UK government’s scenario – that they’ve insisted is the only possible scenario – holds no more water than a sieve.

      That, and it was a quiet afternoon on the blog and (bad me) I thought some people might enjoy exercising a bit of creativity bearing known facts in mind…

      • Stuart Munro 5.1.1

        The desperation of your flailing as you struggle to exculpate the serial poison murdering Putin administration does you credit. With them.

        • Bill 5.1.1.1

          tsk. And the evidence that puts the Kremlin squarely in the frame is….?

          There have been hospitalisations. There is a door handle (or so we are told). There is a perfume bottle (according to the brother’s conversation with the latest victim). There is no obvious or stated motive. There are no suspects being sought. (Or if there is, I missed that piece of news)

          • Stuart Munro 5.1.1.1.1

            You or I Bill, don’t wander around with CBW in our manpurses. This is not for want of political opponents. It has to do with the access of non-state actors to said weapons.

            The Kremlin (or it’s FSB servants) inargually had greater access to such materials than any other party. They also go further towards having a motive than any of the distinctly vague conjectures you have presented.

            Sure Yulia could have done it. On her own? That’s a big nope. But it’s all you’ve got to water down the preponderance of evidence thus far. Why complicate things? Means and motive firmly point to Russia – and no counterevidence whatsoever has surfaced – unless you count the disingenuous denial of tragic figures like Murray, who has no specialist or local knowledge to lend his convictions authority.

            I think you protest too much – certainly more than the evidence justifies.

            • D'Esterre 5.1.1.1.1.1

              Stuart Munro: “Means and motive firmly point to Russia – and no counterevidence whatsoever has surfaced…”

              No. They do not. I’d point out that no actual evidence of any sort – credible or otherwise – has surfaced, either. Unless, of course, you have the white queen’s abilities.

              “….tragic figures like Murray, who has no specialist or local knowledge to lend his convictions authority.”

              Given the story thus far, his perspective is as valid as anybody else’s. And he has more local knowledge than many commenters pounding their keyboards and flapping their gobs, both here and elsewhere.

              We all understand that you have a bee in your bonnet about Putin and Russia. Based on who knows what? Certainly not what’s actually going on there in the here and now.

              • Stuart Munro

                Just because you choose to remain willfully ignorant of Putin’s invasions and murders doesn’t mean everybody is.

                “no actual evidence of any sort”

                Poppycock.

                There is a body.
                There are several people who were gravely ill.
                There are samples presently being tested by the OPCW.

                Stick to the facts for a change.

                • D'Esterre

                  Stuart Munro: “Just because you choose to remain willfully ignorant of Putin’s invasions and murders doesn’t mean everybody is.”

                  So: still no evidence of your claims, then.

                  “There is a body.”

                  There is. But the public is none the wiser as to how she died.

                  “There are several people who were gravely ill.
                  There are samples presently being tested by the OPCW.”

                  So we’re told. In virtue of what would anybody take at face value what the msm is reporting, given the D-notices that have been slapped by the UK government all over the Skripal case?

                  From The Guardian, 14 July: “Police investigating the novichok poisoning of a couple in Wiltshire say more than 400 items have been recovered.

                  A significant number are said to be potentially contaminated and have been submitted to the government’s Defence Science and Technology Laboratory for analysis.’

                  Here we have reportage of a police statement. No actual journalism involved. But 400 items? Either Porton Down has been very careless, or the spooks don’t understand subtlety. How could anyone regard this stuff as evidence?

                  This is what an attack by sarin gas looked like:
                  https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2018/07/06/national/crime-legal/aum-shinrikyo-guru-shoko-asahara-hanged-mass-murder-reports/

                  Novichok is more toxic than sarin; so an attack in Wiltshire using it ought to have looked more like the above.

                  This from The Daily Mail 11 March: “The pair are still in a critical condition and more than 250 counter-terrorism officers are desperately trying to find the source of the chemical after traces were found on their table in Zizzi, which has since been destroyed.””

                  In the same article, Novichok is referred to as being a fine white powder (it is so characterised elsewhere). Yet it is now reported that a small bottle of liquid – identified as Novichok – has been found at the Amesbury house.

                  Absent anything resembling actual evidence, I and many others remain sceptical.

        • In Vino 5.1.1.2

          Stuart M – your over-confidence is either admirable or worrying. I wish I knew which.

          • Stuart Munro 5.1.1.2.1

            It really comes down to whether one believes Putin is a new thing – a muscular strong man leader as Mussolini was wont to style himself, or a cynical continuation of the corrupt soviet kleptocracy. If you take the former line Bill’s doubts might hold some water, but if you take the latter Putin’s rationalizations fall into the category of “We have heard all this crap from you lot before”.

            • Bill 5.1.1.2.1.1

              Putin and/or the nature of the Russian government has got nothing whatsoever to do with the integrity of the story being told by the British government.

              • Stuart Munro

                Which is that Skripal, a former Russian double agent has been poisoned, probably by Russia. Completely true. But for some reason you want to pretend anyone else, from Porton Down to the Iraqis are somehow credible suspects. If you had a shred of evidence it might not be so bad. But you ain’t got a thing.

                You’ve even gone so far as to impugn Yulia – a new low even for you.

                It was the Putin regime. Get used to it.

                • Bill

                  Again. What is the evidence that puts the Kremlin squarely in the frame?

                  That it could be argued there is a past record might support any case made, but it certainly doesn’t provide one.

                  • Stuart Munro

                    Gosh I get tired of repeating it to you Bill.

                    Russia has a well-earned reputation for poisoning. From thalium to umbrellas to Yanukovych to Litvinenko. It’s one of their modus operandii.

                    The Skripals are a plausible Russian target. No other country has a motive that you can produce evidence for.

                    The poison is one which was only ever produced in substantial quantities in one place, Russia.

                    Now you can construct a case for some other party being involved – but not credibly in the absence of some evidence to support your speculations.

                    • marty mars

                      Well laid out Stuart. It disappoints me that the people who cannot accept likely Russian involvement can offer ZERO idea of who did they think did do it – other than a double double triple blind play to discredit the Russians lol. Where are the other theories? Nowhere that I’ve seen.

        • Kaya3 5.1.1.3

          You really are a special kind of stupid. There isn’t a single shred of evidence linking this nonsense to Russia. There is plenty of evidence to show the UK position as totally idiotic. This is a blatant false flag. Whether by the UK, US or maybe even Israel, who knows. One thing is certain, if it was a game of Cluedo the Russians wouldn’t even be in the box as an option.

          If you’ve got anything resembling credible evidence or even credible motive please share it. The poms certainly can’t do it and they’ve got MI6 on the case ffs.

          • Stuart Munro 5.1.1.3.1

            You are unusually obtuse. Run along and do your homework.

            “There isn’t a single shred of evidence”

            Quite right.

            There is not a single shred so much as a vast collection of evidence, the result of hundreds of specialists working on the case for some months.

            You may wish to dismiss this with a wave of your hand – and that’s certainly the only way you will exculpate Russia – the weight of evidence is overwhelmingly against them.

    • greywarshark 5.2

      It’s a hypothesis Stuart Munro. Might be a hippotamous even. Conjecture that the Brits will blame the Russians like good prejudiced little Westerners is reasonable, and then thinking of their own tendencies for mendaciousness, they can imagine just about anything id likely.

      • Stuart Munro 5.2.1

        Yes it’s an interesting thesis, prejudice against Russia.

        I think in this instance it’s more a case of postjudice.

        Russia has form for this stuff – enough form that it would be folly to pretend they were some relatively inoffensive country like Canada.

  6. adam 6

    Bill, Bill, Bill.

    We all know it was China, in a double black ops move to discredit Russia.

    Or it was the CIA in revenge for Russia playing in their election.

    The North Koreans, who knows how they did it, but seeing as we playing the blame game, let’s blame them.

    Assaird, bugger fighting a civil war, it was his time to take on MI69.

    Oh Iran, they have a track record.

    Speaking of track records, Mossad!

    Hamas, they fire homemade rockets, they could have made the nerve agent at home, in the shed, with some number 8 wire.

    Juan Evo Morales Ayma, we need some spectors from the left.

    Maduro, not like he has a million things to do at home, I’m sure he could have looked somthing up.

    The Cubans, Castro mark II

    In all serious now, at this point I’m going to say I’m going to go with it was a rogue element – either Russian or British – maybe even a combination of both. This is looking messed up. But as I said at the time, and in discussions with others, let’s wait for the truth on this one, it may take some time.

  7. Pat 7

    I like bwaghorns comment…and hes quite correct…we have no idea and probably never will do…my guess (and that is all it is) its ex Russia, sanctioned or not and it will be used by all and sundry for various agendas.

    • adam 7.1

      I think the truth will come with Pat, my guess, it will be a really long time coming.

    • Bill 7.2

      It’s not the “no idea” as per bwaghorn’s comment I have any trouble with.

      What I do have a bit of an issue with is that a government threw up a scenario/a theory that just tatters at more or less every touch, and yet we are asked to believe it or accept it no matter what.

      And if I have a bit of an issue with the above, then what I have a far greater issue with is the group or pack mentality, joined in by some (I could say “too many”), that would seek to cast a veil of silence over any questions that might arise with regards that government’s line.

      That’s not a good space for any society to be in.

      • Pat 7.2.1

        yep..i get where your coming from..and no its not a good space re deception but a lifetime of it and im an unabashed cynic …and itis tiring being surprised (or outraged) all the time.

        simple pleasures

      • McFlock 7.2.2

        The fact that deadly weapon might be disguised as a bottle of perfume rather than labelled “warning: nerve agent inside” is not a “tatter”. Nor is the idea that murdering traitors might be a motive in itself, and a decent deterrent against other people who might consider following the same path.

        But assuming said traitor and/or his daughter still has enough contacts in the service he betrayed so they could get access to said nerve agent in order to kill person or persons unknown for reason unknown, then accidentally contaminates themselves without noticing either the accident or initial symptoms of that contamination. Oh, that has half a dozen big holes in it.

        • Bill 7.2.2.1

          Deadly weapon disguised as bottle isn’t even a thing, so you’re right – no tatter there.

          Yulia as carrier of “toxin in bottle” fits with what is publicly known.

          Third party attacking the pair with “toxin in bottle” doesn’t (as signaled in the post).

          Third party spraying toxin onto a door handle from a perfume bottle doesn’t really fit with what we’ve been told about specially trained operatives and deadly substances – that, incidentally, seem to have a success rate down around the 20% mark.

          And regardless (to repeat the basic and central point) the notion peddled by the UK government that the only possible explanation is their explanation is fucking hogwash.

          • McFlock 7.2.2.1.1

            Tell me a substantial portion of your position doesn’t rest on your belief that a fine spray is the only way perfume comes out of bottles.

            And why is a spray inconsistent with the prevalent explanation? Didn’t a north Korean exile recently get assassinated by a spray of nerve agent to the face?

            • Bill 7.2.2.1.1.1

              Read the post McFlock.

              Maybe pay attention to the part about the bottle – its loss and discovery – and the apparent lack of info coming from Yulia after she regained consciousness.

              And then move onto an allegedly deadly toxin being applied to a very specific area of a door by highly trained operatives by way of airborne droplets. (Read the links for reference to “spray”)

              The UK, according to their Foreign Sec, has copies of the training manual btw – I’m sure it will explain the safety precautions taken by those operatives in the presence of a deadly air borne substance. Buggered if I know why they won’t release their copy. Must be some security reason behind it, yes? 🙂

              • McFlock

                OK on the spray.

                What would you expect yulia to know about the perfume bottle? If the bottle was used to spray the doorknob she’d know nothing, and wouldn’t want to speak to the Russian govt because she thinks they’re the ones who did it.

                As for your theory about the cop, you reckon that every police station has someone just waiting to cover up a potential double murder, or were the Brit intelligence folk just lucky the first one on the scene in skripals home was prepared to accidentally poison himself for the and still keep quiet?

                • Bill

                  You’re very good at throwing irrelevant and made up (as in “not what the other person has written or said”) stuff into exchanges, and then expecting answers be supplied on the apparent grounds that any failure to do so means you “win” an argument/exchange.

                  Tell you what. Have a 10 point start and then safely assume everyone else has left the quiz night McFlock 😉

                  • McFlock

                    You asked for speculation on a theory. I merely want to know just how unlikely your theory is.

                    Because to talk about the prevalent theory being in tatters and then to raise possibilities like that goes beyond urging people to have an open mind and well into the territory of a shameless and partisan defense, IMO.

                    • Bill

                      As I said in the post, and in relation to what I’d written in the post “conjecture upon conjecture”.

                      A theory that’s predominantly based on conjecture isn’t ever going to be much of a theory, is it?

                      My point (as previously when I farted about with what I put out as my idea for a film script – remember that?), is only to highlight how utterly absurd the “official” conspiracy theory is – and it is a conspiracy theory.

                      I’m a bit lost on how not adopting or running with nonsense constitutes “shameless” and/or “partisan” defense of anything.

                    • McFlock

                      But you’re not just “not running” with it. You’re explicitly saying it “tatters at every touch”, when it’s the simplest and most likely explanation (by far) for the observed facts.

                      And the “holes” you bring up include asking why someone might throw away a murder weapon. I mean, come on.

                      Yes, the official explanation is a theory about a conspiracy. It’s highly unlikely that the same person who made the poison applied it, so more than one person was involved. But that doesn’t mean that all bets are off and any other explanation one can imagine is just as likely as the next.

                      The theory is based on known facts:
                      Skripal was a traitor to Russia.
                      The poison has been identified as one developed by the Soviets.
                      You can’t buy this poison off the shelf – most people wouldn’t even have heard of it.
                      Lots of Putin’s opponents and enemies have been murdered, some by exotic poisons.
                      There are many ways of administering a poison, from umbrellas to cups of tea to skin contact.

                      An action by the Russian state explains the origin of the poison and the motive, as well as how the act was done.

                      Skripal maybe had many other enemies. But how many of them could steal the poison or make it for their personal use? That’s a big goddamned hole, right there. A real one.

              • McFlock

                Oh, and maybe they haven’t released the manual because something like that could well have content that would narrow down the source who supplied it.

                • Carolyn_Nth

                  Don’t know about spy manuals, but the killer perfume seems straight out of the TV drama “Killing Eve” – British made for BBC America.

                  This show is available on TVNZ ondemand:

                  It’s about a cat and mouse pursuit by an MI5 agent (Sandra Oh) and a psycho/socio-pathic Russian assassin, Villanelle, who loves to kill.

                  I think it’s the second ep that has the perfume plot.

                  Villanelle has poisoned the perfume. As the older woman dies, the assassin looks at her face with pride and fascination. I hope Waller-Bridge gives Villanelle’s sociopathy some dimensions soon.

                  Villanelle has been screwing a neighbour, Sebastian. When in Villanell’s apartment, he picks up the bottle of poisoned perfume and tests it on himself, and he dies shortly thereafter.

                  • McFlock

                    meh. Agatha Christie wrote about poisons in perfume bottles on at least one occasion.

                    And the KGB really did produce a pistol disguised as a tube of lipstick.

                    People disguise weapons and then discard them after use. It’s one way to avoid capture, especially if you’re a spy.

        • Andre 7.2.2.2

          You fought with yourself for over five hours, but in the end you just couldn’t help yourself, couldya?

          • McFlock 7.2.2.2.1

            Lol

            More to do with how my workday went. Dealt with to much be IRL yesterday.

  8. I don’t wish to stir up either side of this murky pool, and I may have missed hearing of the hunt for the ‘perpetrators’ but did they ‘close the borders?’ With the amount of CCTV in Britain, surely someone would have been identified as a likely suspect? After all, rob a dairy in NZ and there’s bound to be video footage of you doing it!

    Or did a high-tech Russia deliver the poison by drone?

    There’s just too many damned questions for any of the more reasonable explanations to be at all creditable – imho.

  9. Richard 9

    Next they’ll be saying Russia interferes in elections! Keep up the good work Donald…. I mean Bill.

  10. Cemetery Jones 10

    I see they’re trying to link the Gareth Williams case to Russia now. At the time, of course, the focus was understandably on the bizarre interventions of MI6 in trying to stymie the investigation and imply he died in a sex game, was a cross dresser, into bdsm, etc.

    https://theunredacted.com/gareth-williams-the-spy-in-the-bag/

  11. Tricledrown 11

    Putin has a long history of brutally killing any dissenting.
    Recently Putin has been flexing his muscles a long with diplomacy ie World Cup while opposition and protesters are beaten up locked up and Murdered.
    The Pussy Riot protester won’t see the light of day.

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    Check against delivery Can I begin by acknowledging the 51 shuhada, their families and the Muslim community. It is because of the atrocious violent act that was done to them which has led ultimately to this, the start of a dialogue and a conversation about how we as a nation ...
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    4 days ago
  • Cost of Government Southern Response proactive package released
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  • He Whenua Taurikura: New Zealand’s first Hui on Countering Terrorism and Violent Extremism
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  • Speech to inaugural Countering Terrorism Hui
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  • Farewelling sports administrator and philanthropist Sir Eion Edgar
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    5 days ago
  • Government to apologise for Dawn Raids
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  • Humanitarian support for Bangladesh and Myanmar
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  • Poroporoaki: Dame Georgina Kamiria Kirby
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  • Feedback sought on future of housing and urban development
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  • Clean car package to drive down emissions
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    6 days ago
  • Progress towards simpler process for changing sex on birth certificates
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  • Crown speeds up engagement with takutai moana applicants
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    7 days ago
  • Alcohol and Other Drug Treatment (AODT) Court opens
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  • Arihia Bennett to chair Royal Commission Ministerial Advisory Group
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  • Speech to the New Zealand Medical Association General Practitioners' Conference, Rotorua
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  • Speech to APEC business event
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  • Supplier Diversity Aotearoa Summit: Navigate 2021
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  • Pukemiro School to close
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