On polls and things

Written By: - Date published: 9:16 am, February 25th, 2014 - 106 comments
Categories: election 2014, greens, labour, Media, national, polls - Tags:

Danyl McLaughlan poll of polls

I sense a certain lethargy creeping into the continuing debates on opinion poll results. The polls bounce all around the place.  One minute there is the euphoria of a likely change of Government this year to the forces of light and goodness and then there is the agony of the prospect of a Key led Government being able to rule in its own right.  The never ending stream of results do not stop the bloggers (me included) from commenting every time a new one appears.  We go through bouts of depression and exhilaration depending on the latest poll result.

The latest TVNZ Colmar Brunton poll has provided a feeling of depression to some on the left.  The result, Labour steady on 34% is actually OK.  If Labour gets to 37% and the Greens hold steady on their normal results then a change in Government is on the cards.  The surprising result, that Greens lost 5% to go down to 8% indicates to me strongly that the result is something of a rogue.  Two trips to Dotcom mansion by Russel Norman is not justification for such a precipitous drop.  The theory offered very quickly by David Farrar after the results were released, that Labour had lost support to National but gained it from the Greens, does not make sense.  There has been no event to justify such a change.  There is also the interesting feature that undecided voters have increased from 11% to 13%.  But polls go up and down.  The feeling that I get on the ground is that the mood for change is much higher than the latest polls present although this is going to be a tough election.

Danyl McLaughlan’s tracking poll offers an interesting perspective.  His latest results are above in graphical form.  It adjusts various poll results for anticipated bias based on poll results from the last election and then averages the results.  (lprent: It is also adjusted by the average poll deviation from actual results in the 2011 election. Polls over many elections consistently overstate National vote and understate NZ First for instance).

It suggests that National’s true level of support is currently at about 44%, Labour is at about 32%, the Greens are on 10% and NZ First is on 7.2%.    With these figures anything can happen.  The graph is very interesting and shows individual poll results plotted against the trend over time. It suggests there is a consistent over reporting of National’s support and a consistent under reporting of NZ First’s support although I suspect that the last result was because of lefties tactically voting to make sure that NZ First made it over the line.

It is clear however that the trend is in the wrong direction for the left.  Right wing bloggers obviously think that the ferocity of their attack on Cunliffe, Norman and Turei is the reason.  I think the trend has much more to do with the upbeat feeling that summer and the buoyant economic outlook has brought about.

The accuracy of land line based polling systems has attracted comment from a number of Standard readers in the past.  News that the number of Telecom landline holders has reduced by 11% over the past two years will only add to concerns that the various polling systems are not properly sampling the population. Usage was estimated at 85% in 2013.  If the Telecom figure is extrapolated then we are looking at a landline in households proportion of about 80% which would match the figure in Australia.

The depressingly negative reporting by the media is of continuing concern.  For instance Labour’s stable polling in the Colmar Brunton poll was reported by the Dominion as “Labour Limping” and Key was then allowed to frame the debate and tell Labour what it is doing wrong.  The article was then bolstered by a headline Labour targeting wrong issues – Key which reads like it came out of the Prime Minister’s office rather than the Dominion Post.

And the Herald continues its re elect John Key campaign.  A recent article had a heading proclaiming that Labour was putting Auckland on the road to chaos by supporting Len Brown’s wish list of transport projects.  The only problem is that Labour has not.  The heading was especially naughty because Brian Rudman, the writer of the article was more nuanced in his comments. For the record Labour supports the inner city loop but does not support all of the roading projects.

IMHO what the left should do is not panic but keep talking about the issues and avoid all the distractions that the right are going to throw in its way today.  And it needs a principled and competent approach to campaigning sufficient to persuade non voters to vote and swinging voters to vote left and to persuade activists to work harder on the ground to ground campaigns which will be the difference between winning and losing.

It is going to be an interesting year …

106 comments on “On polls and things ”

  1. karol 1

    I find the obssessive following and reporting of the polls frustrating and annoying. I’m not much of a poll watcher, and prefer to look at other aspects of politics.

    However, as you show, micky, the way the MSM and right wing bloggers eagerly watch, report on ans spin the polls IS the main problem, and makes it difficult to ignore them totally. They use them to frame their poltical spin.

    This adds up to a huge distraction form the key issues. I also think it is part of the whole “horse race” focus that turns off my potential voters than it eages. It’s part of what makes many members of the public cynical about politics.

    NeverthelEss, I think what engages the a lot of the public more, is stories about the trials and tribulations of their daily lives, and stories about “everyday” people. This is where the left should focus more than obssessive poll watching, in my view.

    • Monty 1.1

      I remember one Helen E Clark was obsessed with polling. In particular I remember very well her shock at the massive increase in support for National (and corresponding slip in support for Labour) following on from the Don Brash Orewa speech. The polls allowed Labour to come back with a policy change (which also included the Labour over reaction to the Seabed and Foreshore.

      So polls are an important tool for the politician. Their ability to remain in power or get into power is based on polling and getting feedback on what works and what is a failure. I therefore do not think polling is a distraction but critical to success. Which leads me onto the next point.

      I do not think Labour are very good at reading and understanding the electorate. The left is ideologically entrenched with certain positions that really do not matter. The evidence of this is the current stuff poll about what is important. there are a number of selections such as economy health education asset sales and so on. Far and away the most import thing for the electorate is the Economy. Everything else pales into insignificance.

      On the economy National are essentially untouchable and in spite of what you read here the Nats are doing a great job in that space. So much so that David Parker has essentially been silenced. There is a reluctance by Labour MPs that the economy is performing well (es[ecially when you consider the basket case that the Nats inherited in 2008) But it is the other areas where the Left are focusing and not getting the traction. Polling shows traction is low.

      Sort of puts the left in a very difficult position going into the election. They know from polling what the issues are, but capturing the imagination of the electorate is another issue.

      • framu 1.1.1

        “So polls are an important tool for the politician. ”

        true enough – but thats a different matter entirely to the MSM spending their entire time telling voters whos winning the race.

        note how your whole other point is entirely fueled by the media and their reporting of polls?

        you prove the damage of this kind of media approach in your own comment.

        note – thats not about having a different opinion – but that the opinions formed arent based on policy analysis, historical context or even fact – its all based on spin, perception and populism

        • karol 1.1.1.1

          Exactly, framu. Partly, media organisations get their own polls done as a way of creating news – they then can claim an exclusive. Of course, they then need to make it sound dramatic each poll, so they beat up any changes, even if the changes are within the margin of error.

      • Concerned 1.1.2

        We will catch the imagination of the public by announcing new taxes and spending. That will be a vote winner.

        • One Anonymous Bloke 1.1.2.1

          What, as opposed to the current government’s taxing and borrowing and spending?

          All governments levy taxes. All governments spend money. Some reduce the country’s debt. Some reduce the country’s GINI.

      • KJT 1.1.3

        “basket case that the Nats inherited in 2008”.

        Not according to Bill English.

        Fissure has been joined by another satirist.

        Or. Is Monty Fiziani astroturfing in disguise?

        [lprent: Nope. I know Monty of many bans past – all the way back to 2008 as I remember it. He knows the basic rules of the site, and I’m pretty sure he isn’t Fisiani. I haven’t needed to look at him this time around so far. ]

      • mickysavage 1.1.4

        I do not think Labour are very good at reading and understanding the electorate.

        Monty if Labour matched National or were perhaps to the right of it you would think that they were properly reflecting the electorate’s views.

        You are also so wrong about the reality of the economy. Labour paid off the debt and left the country’s books in a state where Key has been able to have a big spend using the country’s credit card for the past five years. And say it as much as you want the country’s economy was in robust good health in 2008. I despair at your inability to realise or acknowledge this and your insistence that you are right.

    • lprent 1.2

      I find the obssessive following and reporting of the polls frustrating and annoying. I’m not much of a poll watcher, and prefer to look at other aspects of politics.

      I mostly look at the Roy Morgan poll every other month to see if there are any sustained trends emerging. Just at present there is a post-xmas recovery for National. However it isn’t exactly a trend (especially just after xmas – you can see this happen in many years).

      The usual rapid shifts just after xmas are even more evident in RM’s GCR

      Basically we’re getting anticipation of the effects of the one off ChCh rebuild (finally) and continued high milk powder prices. But basically we’re far too dependent on this countries prosperity on a single product – milkpowder. I’m just waiting for the inevitable crash..

      The competition for international dairy sales is steadily mounting. For instance the US dairy industry has been having really fast export growth in the last 5 years. There is also a lot of milk powder capacity coming online. Plus the main new market in China is starting to slow a lot.

      Meanwhile outside of fixing ChCh and selling commodities, the industrial export sector is most notable for the lack of companies entering it since this government removed or reduced all effective help from R&D tax credits to offshore support from MFAT in 2009. Since they have done nothing to promote new export industries.

      That is why, despite National talking up the economy over the last couple of years, wages haven’t moved and the nett number of people out of work or underemployed has been still rising.

      • lurgee 1.2.1

        Unfortunately (? – given my wife works for Fonterra) I don’t think any crash is likely to come between now and the election. And while the boost from the Christchurch may be ‘one off’ it is never-the-less real enough for the people benefiting from it. The irony of a rightwing government being obliged to invest in a massive economic project has been remarked before – but that doesn’t really matter to the electorate. With asset sales ruled out, and a lot of shouting about increasing the minimum wage ‘responsibly,’ a lot of people will vote National on the assumption they’ve done well enough thus far.

        • lprent 1.2.1.1

          Curiously I just wrote a post about that. Not so much about the public perception. Just that in reality the economy is still quite stalled.

          However I suspect that the despite the amount of hyping, the sense that nothing much outside of ChCh is happening will show up.

  2. One Anonymous Bloke 2

    +1

    The mainstream media is not the only game in town.

    • JanM 2.1

      No, but sadly, it’s what ‘mainstream’ New Zealand mainly accesses

      • One Anonymous Bloke 2.1.1

        Mainstream New Zealand also walks down the street, visits its local market, etc etc. Cunliffe makes it very clear in today’s RNZ interview that the doubling of party membership is going to translate directly into street presence etc.

        • weka 2.1.1.1

          Does he mean automatically or is Labour actively increasing its use of non-MSM strategies?

          • One Anonymous Bloke 2.1.1.1.1

            It sounded more like increasing use of.

          • karol 2.1.1.1.2

            Cunliffe said they are working hard on a strategy behind the scenes. It involves organising volunteers on a street by street basis to be out there engaging with Kiwis in their local areas. He said it’s the sort of thing not reflected in the polls because the public, obviously at this stage, can’t see what they are doing.

            • weka 2.1.1.1.2.1

              That’s good to hear, because I’m banging my head on the desk over the superannuation policy this morning.

            • Granted 2.1.1.1.2.2

              So how long before the behind the scenes work transfers to highly visible efforts that engages the public?

              I can’t imagine National would call an early election, however such a move although it would be highly politicised etc, could leave labour under prepared???

              • karol

                The on-the-street campaigning hasn’t started yet – it’s just in the organisational phase – as in the Cunliffe RNZ interview.

            • Skinny 2.1.1.1.2.3

              As a result of the last Leadership husting meetings held around the country there was a rejuvenation of membership sign ups. If the Labour Party could send out a blanket letter encouraging members to get in behind the party and join in campaigning.

              We need to commit all hands to the pump. Merely joining up and paying your subs won’t be enough to get a victory later this year.

              It is vital to wining this years election that we draw people in to become actively involved. The battle will be waged in the suburbs and their streets, house by house, leave no property unanswered. First we enroll people, and then continue to ensure they turn-out to vote.

              We need to start thinking cross party unity, by opening up a joint campaign with our collation partners the Greens and Mana (who are very dedicated on the ground campaigners).

              We on the Left must do everything in our powers to get as many of the 800,000 non voters from the last election to vote. They are the ones who will make a real difference. If we can collectively target this bloc and successfully get hundreds of thousands to vote all polls will be turned on their head including the main poll the 2014 general election.

              This is what needs to happen so let’s hear this from the NZLP.

  3. Puckish Rogue 3

    I agree, its alot to do with the weather and its a rogue poll so don’t panic and change anything. Just keep doing what you’re doing and give Cunliffe a bit more time and Labour will win the next election (the election in 2017 of course)

    • fender 3.1

      You’re really popular here PR, so don’t do a fisiani , that would be a real shame…

      • Puckish Rogue 3.1.1

        fisianis a good man

        [lprent: Also a exceedingly repetitive one who just made a very dumb and general set of assertions about others.

        I tend to get a hell of a lot harsher kicking off anyone doing mindless trolling coming up towards elections as a prophylactic measure. Otherwise the sites comments become far too boring for me to enjoy reading. I looked at the comment if banned him for and thought about seeing another six months of that kind of crap. ]

      • lurgee 3.1.2

        I thought that was a rather well turned joke. Are we all getting a bit grim and tight lipped on the left?

  4. shorts 4

    Polls are the sports results of current affairs for our media- ie something their talking heads understand, winners and losers… subtlety lost and bias confirmed

    I don’t think many people outside of those politically active give a shit – maybe closer to polling day but for now they’re just a distraction from the real news – what the celebs are up to and, well, sport

  5. xtasy 5

    Yes, it is wise to not pay too much attention to the polls, because they are the stuff the MSM love, and that are also used to drag people before the TV screens to pay attention. Polls are treated a bit like the “America’s Cup”, the “Melbourne Cup”, a leading international All Black game against the Aussies or Springboks, yes like racing and sports competitions, focusing on numbers and “results”, rather than efforts and details.

    The way polls are conducted have been and are questioned by many, as we know, and polls can also lead to self fulfilling tendencies and prophecies, as the MSM media reporters, moderators and “personalities” use them as “guidance” for their own “sensing” of situations and trends, only feeding back into people’s minds a sentiment, that will end up being poll driven, and is anything but policy focused. In the end we would have a repeat of the last election campaign, where the focus is lost, as too much concern is placed on polls at any given time.

    Trends are fluctuating and can change abruptly, be up and down for long or short periods, and this cannot serve as a good “guide” for running an election campaign. It can serve as an aspect to give serious consideration, but must always be seen alongside many other aspects to consider.

    Nevertheless, as Labour – and also some in the Greens – “stuffed up” a bit over recent weeks, or exposed themselves to media getting a chance to challenge and expose weaknesses or publicly unknown stuff, it is time to bloody LEARN out of all this, and I address this especially at caucus members in both parties, especially Labour though. Do you WANT to win and govern, or do you not??? Get off your backsides and start making that necessary difference. Get your staff to do research, use information smartly and well targeted, and bring new good policies that make a real difference to what we get from NatACT.

    I feel this morning David Cunliffe managed very well in an interview on Radio NZ National with Kathryn Ryan, and he is not taking the polls as something to drag him down, it seems. It is a challenge, which just as well comes this early in election year, to get the act together. Here is the audio of the RNZ interview with Cunliffe:

    http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/2586927/david-cunliffe-labour-party-leader

  6. Enough is Enough 6

    The question remains why do we poll?

    They don’t add anything to the democratic process.

    Simpletons are competitive and like to be seen on the ‘winning’ team. If people assessed the parties on their actual policies rather than the results of these corrupt polls, the election result would be a lot different.

    • blue leopard (Get Lost GCSB Bill) 6.1

      +1 Enough is Enough

    • karol 6.2

      This obsessive polling is a neoliberal thing. It’s using practices taken from the business world to test on branding etc.

      It shouldn’t be the the corner pin of the operations of the left – conflicts with left wing concerns with people, communities and the lives lived therein.

    • lurgee 6.3

      Oh, come on, you can’t grumble about the purpose of polling just because they are going against us. If the poll had Labour on 40% and the Greens on 15%, people here-about would be demanding the poll be the lead story on the news for a week and for Key to call an immediate election.

  7. Ad 7

    Loved your last post to get more young people enrolled. Just sensible. Keep going Mickey.

  8. Notanymore 8

    I am confused. The polling for mid-last year shows an upwards trend for Labour and a downward trend on the blue line. Didn’t David Shearer stand to one side because of the bad poll results ?

    Now the trend lines are both moving in completely opposite directions, the red line has taken a distinct dive surely.
    If that is not the case then the blue line, and the associated dots, are all approaching the mid to high-forties again.

    While we keep hearing the only real poll is the one held on election day then what is the point of these numerous other efforts ? David Shearer, for one, must be wondering why he is sitting on the bench he is now. It seems he is not the only caucus member having thoughts.
    Do polls matter or not ?

    • fender 8.1

      I for one feel confident that the more exposure Cunliffe receives when the election campaign kicks off proper we will see support for Labour increase. He hasn’t had much exposure of late except for some silly MSM trivialities that have confirmed they will do Labour no favours. Much will have been learned from the last couple of weeks hopefully and Cunliffe should realise it’s better to stay on message rather than be dragged down to the playground level of debate Key specialises in.

      Polls seem to matter mostly to those who wish to use the results as a tool to validate their bias. The lack of discussion around the undecided is quite telling, so don’t get too depressed by assuming Key will automatically get another 3 years of destructive divisiveness to play out.

      If Shearer is wondering why he is no longer leader all he needs to do is look back on the tapes of his stumbling bumbling efforts.

      The leaders debates will give Cunliffe the opportunity to show how much more he is PM material than Key the one-hit wonder rockstar wannabe who keeps playing his scratched record ad nauseam is.

      • Anne 8.1.1

        Much will have been learned from the last couple of weeks hopefully and Cunliffe should realise it’s better to stay on message…

        And that is what he said this morning. Not afraid to admit he’s made mistakes.

        You know something? As we draw closer to the election and Joe and Mary Bloggs begin to recognise Cunliffe’s talent, what’s the bet there will be a subtle change in MSM reporting. And the reason would be because they’re hedging their bets. They like to be in the winners camp and if Labour’s fortunes improve enough, they will start a’courting them in case they win.

        That, I think, is what is worrying NAct and is why they are sinking to such dirty, low-down tactics (spying on opposition pollies looking for gen on them)) in their efforts to discredit their opponents.

        • blue leopard (Get Lost GCSB Bill) 8.1.1.1

          +1 Anne …and that recent raising of the minimum wage can be clearly seen as an acknowledgement by National that Labour’s message that ‘the economy is not sharing good fortune in good times with all of us’ is a strong one that they can’t counteract apart from a token raise-at-the-last-minute.

        • fender 8.1.1.2

          Yep. I have faith in my judge of character, and it leads me to believe that the more people are exposed to the talents of Cunliffe the more they will see he’s a refreshing change from what Key can offer.

          I fail to accept voters are happy to have a flippant lager-lout as their PM.

          • Pasupial 8.1.1.2.1

            The most interesting part of the OneNewsColmarBrunton (CB) poll for me was the Preferred PM question:

            “Now thinking about all current MPs of any party, which one would you personally prefer to be Prime Minister?” IF NONE: “Is there anyone who is not a current MP who you would prefer to be Prime Minister?”

            http://www.colmarbrunton.co.nz/images/140214_ONE_News_Colmar_Brunton_Poll_report_15-19_Feb_2014_prelim.pdf

            The question as asked seems to come across as; “name a politician, any politician”. Not surprisingly the current PM came out on top (43% – approximately 430 out of the 1007 people interviewed), but this was closely followed by “don’t know” (30% or 300 people). Especially if we include “other” (2%), “none” (3%), or “refused” (1%), in the “Don’t know” category (36% or 360).

            Cunliffe came in at 10% (100 people), but look how his rise from 0.4% (4 people) in last year’s April poll is mirrored by Shearer’s fall from 15% (150) to 0.5% (5 people). As always, in third place is Peters at 4% (40 people).

            But this is where it gets most interesting; of the following 18 Preferred PM nominees, only 3 hail form National; English on 0.4% (4 people), Joyce & Collins both on 0.2% (2 people). Colin Craig devotees mustered 0.3%, as did Pita Sharples (3 people).

            On the broader left there is; Norman 1% (10 people), & Turei 0.2% (2 people), plus Harawira 0.1% , & Anderton 0.1% (1 person). All of the remaining 9 are Labour MPs (although the 4 people giving Helen Clark 0.4% are probably trapped in the same time-warp as Anderton’s supporter; so call it 8 current Labour MPs).

            What this suggests to me is that the left’s strength lies in being represented by a team of committed MPs. Cunliffe shouldn’t adopt the presidential style framing by going mano a mano against Key. If it’s a question of inclusion vs exclusion, then the Left will win every time.

            • mickysavage 8.1.1.2.1.1

              Good call Parsupial. Why is it that the left do not care about who the leader is but care which party is in control?

      • thechangeling 8.1.2

        I agree that the leaders debates (if Key actually bothers to front) will give Labour a significant boost as Cunliffe will focus much more on the nuts and bolts of policy whilst Key will just launch superficially based character attacks based on perceived past policy ‘failures’ and ‘facts’.
        I expect Key to get particularly nasty and vicious especially if the polls have narrowed more than they are now which I expect they will.
        As another poster said, the best thing that Cunliffe can do is ‘stay on track’ and keep talking about policy and it’s related detail and don’t lower himself to Key’s level which is the best way for Labour to win through in the end.

    • karol 8.2

      Dear, stillconfused – read the post. It explains the correction applied to the raw poll results,

    • Stamper 8.3

      They matter if you’re ahead; they are “just another one means nothing much / too early” etc etc if you’re behind.

  9. tricledrown 9

    Many of us on the left said this was going to be a difficult year with the economy growing and National crowing.
    It has Now been proven unfortunately true.
    The Only way we can combat it is to get numbers on the ground and get nonvoters out young by twitter facebook etc
    Maori and pacific Islanders we need volunteers on the ground.
    No more infighting complaining.
    A lot you thought wr had this election in the bag.
    I said this election was going to be hard work.
    Get with your left party and help on the ground negative blogging and giving hooton and srylands BM whatfor ain’t going to win this election.
    The only brightspot would be the resurgence of ACT who would put an end to Keys Hollow promise that the National party wil not be selling anymore assets.
    They will blame ACT for breaking that Hollow promise.

    • Skinny 9.1

      Key has been let off the hook by MSM interviews. When the prick said there would be no more assets sales the media should have asked the broader question of contracting and consulting out what public/state sectors we have left. A third term National will go all out to carve up contracts to their mates. Which will mean further job cuts, mark my words.

      Just look at the prolific rise in costs associated to contractors and consultants under this regime.

  10. David 10

    I think the Morgan Poll of 20 Feb has the biggest answers here: by its tracking of confidence levels in government, the Nats have been on a roll for 6 months. http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5437-new-zealand-voting-intention-february-20-2014-201402200349 I was waiting for this to track more strongly into the other polls, and my guess is that’s what’s happening now. So we face a challenge: here arent things tearing away at the underbelly of this government, as one might expect after 6 years. Disaffection is real and is crystallizing, but so is a basic ease on the part of a big chunk of the electorate with overall direction and progress. The biggest mistake Labour could make now would be to tear itself to pieces over this: Labour will get an excellent chance to present itself as an alternative government later this year; it has a strong and articulate leader who will do well head to head with anyone, and is articulating polices that will make a real difference to those who the Nats have undermined and eroded. I think we will look very attractive to a lot of people later this year, but we need to stay positive now.

    • Lanthanide 10.1

      The thing is, that Morgan question isn’t anything to do with the government, by they report the result as if it is.

      The question is something like “Do you think things in NZ are generally going in the right direction, or wrong direction?”.

      If the question was actually “Do you have confidence in the government”, which is what they are touting it as, they would get different answers.

      When I was recently polled by Roy Morgan I deliberately answered “wrong direction”, even though I don’t believe that, because I know they report it as a government confidence rating, when I don’t have confidence in this government. Things are going in the right direction despite the government.

    • lprent 10.2

      Agreed. What is rather irritating is that the confidence tends to be misplaced.

  11. McFlock 11

    The thing about the economic good news stories (well, the ones that aren’t found to be bunk three months down the line, line surpluses and christmas trading levels) is that I don’t believe they are relevant to most people.

    I suspect that what we all can do (not “labour should…” or “the Greens need to…”) is keep asking how relevant some of these figures are to each of us as individuals. The one constant of this government is massive numbers of people looking for work or more work. They’re not looking for the hell of it – they’re struggling. That’s the reality. Too many of them, I think, feel that their circumstances are the exception rather than the norm. The believe the good news stories in the face of their own contrary experience.

    We need to remind folk that their experience counts, too. Remind them that they count, too.

  12. Bob 12

    Who created this graph? How is it possible for there to be 5 results below National’s rolling median result and dozens above? Did you get this graph from the IPCC by chance?

    [lprent: The link is in the post. You just wasted my time in responding to a general question about a post on out site that you could have shifted your lazy arse and found out about if you’d read the post.

    Banned for 4 weeks. ]

    • Granted 12.1

      HaHa!!! I was about to ask the same question.

      Stats stats and Lies or something isn’t it???

      [lprent: Same 4 weeks to you. Besides, your stats in 12.2 is complete crap. I’d suggest you go and read some texts. You obviously belong to the Whaleoil school of logic where 1 + 1 = “11” ]

    • Granted 12.2

      Actually add the error margin to National and subtract from labour and it is 46% to 30.2%. Or the other way 41.8% vs 34%

      But graphs are graphs are graphs. To be fair I recall that NZF were hardly on the charts prior to last election and did pretty well – so the above graph certainly has some validity.

      I agree with last sentence completely – it will be an interesting year.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 12.3

      It’s explained in the post: poll bias is calculated by the difference between said polls and election results (the big dot on the vertical line).

      So the polls that said National would get 56% of the vote before the 2011 election, for example, in doing so, exhibit a bias of +9%.

      Lots of reasons why this is so the largest of which is the decreasing percentage who have land lines.

      I’m sure you’ll prefer to deny this method of assessing the polls. Why don’t you make some ad hominem remarks about the author instead?

      • Bob 12.3.1

        Okay, fair enough,

        ‘Why don’t you make some ad hominem remarks about the author instead?’ Okay, how do these two comments (admittedly by diffrent commentators) align:
        “Polls over many elections consistently overstate National vote and understate NZ First for instance” and yet “It suggests there is a consistent over reporting of National’s support and a consistent under reporting of NZ First’s support although I suspect that the last result was because of lefties tactically voting to make sure that NZ First made it over the line”, really? I take it Mickeysavage has never heard of Occam’s Razor!

        • One Anonymous Bloke 12.3.1.1

          I don’t need tactical voting to explain the phenomenon. I’m sure Micky is quite capable of speaking for himself though. Why don’t you ask him?

          • Bob 12.3.1.1.1

            Simply because you asked me to make ad hominem remarks about the author, so I obliged.

            • One Anonymous Bloke 12.3.1.1.1.1

              Pointing out a flaw in someone’s argument is not ad hominem, but this is getting silly.

              The good thing about a model like Danyl’s is that (if applied consistently) it makes testable predictions, and can be retrospectively tested against existing info.

        • mickysavage 12.3.1.2

          Because Bob it is possible that NZFirst’s result is always under reported but the result in the last election was so good because not only of the under reporting but also because lefties wanted to make sure that NZ First made it over the line.

          I am not sure that Occam’s razor has anything to do with it.

          • One Anonymous Bloke 12.3.1.2.1

            You don’t need tactical voting to explain it. It could be that the votes the polls said belonged to National went to NZ1st instead. Hence Occam’s razor.

  13. jepenseque 13

    Hi everyone.

    Possible labour policies/actions that might get this righty thinking about voting for you:

    Make work pay – where at all possible reduce effective marginal taxes on labour. I.e increase other taxes if need be, think of more clever ways to help families than wff. What about a land tax to fund a strong tax free threshold?

    Be the party of small businesses. There was an excellent article on TDB the other day about the nzicas proposals for small business tax

    Make the cgt a higher % and reduce corporate and personal tax rates.

    Change your language towards business and success.

    Don’t expend energy helping people on min wage earn a higher min wage but rather how can we encourage continual upskilling and labour market movement. People shouldn’t be cleaners for life.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 13.1

      Can you please provide an example of the language towards business and success that needs changing?

      I’m only asking because although I see a lot of right wingers talking shit about what left wingers believe, I never actually see any evidence to support the right wing smears.

      So, to demonstrate the views you allege are ubiquitous on the left, quote a prominent left-wing politician (you need to show they have support for their beliefs) displaying the sort of language towards business and success that you don’t like.

      On the other hand you could withdraw and apologise.

      I expect you to fail miserably to provide a shred of evidence for your false statement, and switch to a different feeble smear, or attack me.

      • jepenseque 13.1.1

        Hello Mr bloke, I don’t believe they are ubiquitous but they are there (just as on the right there is generic smears eg dole bludger etc). Will post some examples later. Cheers

        • One Anonymous Bloke 13.1.1.1

          So, you think some comments made by left wing people towards business and success need to change but you can’t say what any of them are from memory. Can you see how that might tend to undermine confidence in your sincerity and/or accuracy?

          My criticism of right wing policy is based on my observation that it tends to rely on prejudice.

          You’re making it worse.

          • jepenseque 13.1.1.1.1

            Hi again, sorry it was just that I was busy. In fact an example just popped up. http://thestandard.org.nz/guest-post-labour-candidate-deborah-russell/ “Bosses” “expendable labour” taking one minor anecdote and turning it into something much bigger.

            Cheers

            • felix 13.1.1.1.1.1

              Be specific please. What exactly does Deborah say that you find so offensive?

              You’ve put a couple of words in quotation marks, but devoid of any context there’s no way for readers to figure out why you find those particular words so awful.

              Of course that might not have been a particularly good example anyway. You could always just skip that one and move on to some of your other examples.

              • jepenseque

                Hi there, the article describes a world of fear “looking over our shoulders” companies viewing workers as “cheap expendable labour”. These are the mentions the world of business gets. It is divorced from reality for MOST people. It points to a negative and us and them mentality. It plays well to some audiences but gives many in small medium and large businesses the idea that those on the left neither understand or like them very much. So thier support goes elsewhere. This is unrelated to policy even. Its just a style of rhetoric that is a turn off. My 2c. Cheers

                • One Anonymous Bloke

                  When you say “most people” you mean “me”. Just saying.

                  • felix

                    It is divorced from reality for barristers, senior partners of chartered accountancy firms, dentists, and corporate executives.

                    You know, most people.

            • One Anonymous Bloke 13.1.1.1.1.2

              The word “bosses” does not appear once in Russell’s article.

              Jepenesque, you’re confused. Deborah Russell describes ways in which the National Party has undermined success by rendering people powerless and that means she hates success in your “mind”?

              I think in your “mind”, “change your language” means “shut up”.

              As in “Shut up about workers’ rights. Shut up about equality of opportunity.”

              Perhaps you’re being sincere (lol) however. Explain how to discuss workers rights and equality of opportunity in your brand new politically correct way.

              • jepenseque

                Hi again, it should have read “boss” and it appears twice even! Its used as a bit of an epithet sometime. Speaks to an us and them viewpoint. She is free to use it but its an old school language and imagery that doesn’t tie in with most peoples experience of people they work with. Is there any reason why worker rights couldn’t be talked about in a more positive manner?

                • One Anonymous Bloke

                  So you’re saying the Left should employ more politically correct language when talking about people who undermine success?

                  I thought you were against people who undermine success.

                  What synonym would you prefer for “capricious boss”? How about “trash”, or “bludger”?

                • One Anonymous Bloke

                  PS: your comment is rife with assertions about other people’s workplace experiences. Pardon me for thinking you might not have the first clue beyond your own, experience that is. But please, if you can cite some research to support your notions of workplace attitudes, cite it by all means.

                  I Googled “workplace attitude survey nz”. The top articles are all about National Party thugs workplace bullying.

                  So much for your lovely politically correct utopia.

                • felix

                  “it should have read “boss” and it appears twice even!”

                  And what? You don’t like the word “boss”? What other words would you like stricken from the language? Museli? Backgammon? Necklace?

                  Why don’t you say what you really mean instead of wasting time with these stupid fucking games?

                  • jepenseque

                    You are being mischevious. I never said I don’t like the word boss or want to ban it. I said if you want to each a wider audience for your policy it helps not to use class warfare language.

                    All the best

  14. blue leopard (Get Lost GCSB Bill) 14

    Hi Mickey Savage

    I like your advice re “ keep talking about the issues and avoid all the distractions that the right are going to throw in its way today.”

    Good and positive advice, not just for today, but for the whole year. We need to continually focus on the issues and the answers to those issues and not feed the distractions by buying into them; this way we continually bring the narrative around to what is really going to make this country a better place.

  15. Tracey 15

    michael bartlett of aucklands chamber of commerce stated this morning that employers wont struggle with the govts raising of the minimum wage which rather begs the question:

    why wait for the govt to make it law why not raise it yourselves.?

    second point is about the economist the other days who didnt regard our economy as a rockstar, it has elicited this response
    “I am inclined to agree with the majority of economists that the outlook for this country looks considerably brighter than a few detractors would have us believe.

    Donald Blair is the Managing Partner of Paradigm Strategy Partners, a New Zealand-based corporate advisory firm. An American-born economist, he has over 28 years of experience in global markets across the public sector and in a diverse portfolio of private-sector firm”

    Did mr blair and the majority of economists predict the gfc? the crash of 1987? cos if they did must have whispered it.

  16. Tracey 16

    on my tablet no reply button shows” Two generations ago New Zealand had hardly any paid public relations people. There was of course a PR person working for the alcohol industry (and probably had been since about the time of Christ), and there were PR people for perhaps the Manufacturing Federation and one or two others. But in total it was a small handful.

    By one generation ago various private PR companies had appeared and PR staff were starting to be hired by politicians and all sorts of organisations. But today it has changed out of all recognition. The public space in which politics can occur is crowded with huge numbers of well paid PR and “communications” staff. The news media can sometimes do independent and even spectacular work, but most of the time, on nearly every issue, the PR people are better resourced and more numerous. Most news, and often the angle, timing and quotes, do not come from journalists’ observations or journalists’ questions, but from the calculated efforts of PR and marketing people, media advisors, professional speech writers, ad agencies and so on, with journalists racing to rewrite the materials pouring in hour after hour in time for deadline.

    I wrote a paper on this called “Imagining a world where the PR people had won”. In it I drew a comparison with water in New Zealand, which for generations we assumed would always be abundant and clean. When there are only one or a few dairy farms in a valley, the river systems can probably handle it. But we have seen that as one after another industrial farm arrives, the river beds quite suddenly turn slimy, the water becomes undrinkable and so much water is taken that some rivers run dry in summer. It is a good analogy for what’s happening in the democratic sphere.

    We live in an era where the public spaces are cluttered with paid spokespeople and commercial agendas: where lobbyists for foreign-owned banks are more likely to be heard commenting on economic news than community groups, where legions of other PR people vie to promote their clients’ interests and where the public spaces available for real democratic activity are shrinking. This is about the cumulative impact of an ever-growing, professionalised industry for political and media manipulation: more and more paid manufacturing of news, more and more paid voices in so-called public discussion, greater influence of corporate election donations, fake community groups, more scripting of politicians by unseen advisers and so on; all of it tending to crowd out ordinary people or citizen groups that don’t have a PR company and a large advertising budget. If we have more and more and more of this stuff pouring into the public spaces, at what point do we realise that the river is no longer fit to swim in or to drink?

    These profound changes to the way politics occurs have unfortunately coincided with the multiple crises occurring within the news media. Exactly when better journalism is needed to compensate for so much organised manipulation of news and politics, highly commercialised media organisations have (with notable exceptions) become more superficial, more susceptible to vested interests and less thoughtful about what counts as legitimate news and commentary. In recent years, for instance, two major news organisations have published regular political and election columns by David Farrar, without telling their readers that he earns his living as the chief pollster for the governing party, the National Party, including being the person who regularly briefs the prime minister on the poll results. He has also appeared regularly as a “political commentator” on Newstalk ZB and breakfast television. A good measure of media organisations is to look at the balance in their choice of political commentators. Most are not balanced.

    In my book The Hollow Men, when the ACT Party campaign manager Brian Nicolle was privately coordinating a leadership coup for Don Brash within the National Party, he identified private radio as especially sympathetic to the right. “We need to target key talkback hosts in [Newstalk] ZB and [Radio] Pacific,” he wrote to Brash, “there are plenty sympathetic.” The plan was to “produce some common lines that become the ‘mantra’ on your journey to become leader of National and the country” (p. 47).

    The more that these commercial media organisations cut resources to journalism the more they become susceptible to organised manipulation. An under-resourced, reactive news media naturally tends to give prominence to the ideas pushed by well resourced and vigorous interest groups. The result is that the conventional picture of politics we get through the news media is often distorted and inaccurate.” Nh Bruce jesson lecture

  17. captain hook 17

    the polls are conducted by organisations with a vested interest in the status quo and they have been proved wrong on numerous occasions.
    what David Cunliffe has to do is to start talking about jobs and the economy.
    at the moment he is caught in the glare of the beltway and the dweebs and banal poltroons who want to tie him up in knots talking about abstract bullshit that only they understand.
    If he wants to be a man of the people then he must start talking to the people.

  18. Mark 18

    The polls are a joke as they are currently run. . When you run a land line poll in a country that has not got 100% land line coverage the poll becomes a nonsense. Throw in an undecided group which numbers anything from 11% to as high as 18% and the polls are a snapshot of 70% of the population at best. They should be reported as such. When they are not you have to question the ethics and professional standards of both the editors and the journalists involved.

    • Bob 18.1

      I agree, it is wrong to publish these polls without disclosing the undecided’s. Disclosing these would give a far more accurate picture as to how the poll’s actually sit and make them more worthwhile.

  19. Tracey 19

    dc should congratulate key for seeing those at the bottom need help. sadly giving only 50 cents an hour more doesnt suggest mr key thinks its a rockstar, more like a one hit wonder. half of kiwis get less than 21 dollars an hour. mr key is insulting the foundation of nz.

    • Naki Man 19.1

      “half of kiwis get less than 21 dollars an hour.”
      You are talking about people who work now so don’t just make shit up. The average hourly rate for people who work is $27.55 not less than $21

      http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2013/09/beware_the_average_income_stat.html

      • mickysavage 19.1.1

        Hey naki. You should read up on the difference between an average and a median. Go on, knock yourself out …

      • One Anonymous Bloke 19.1.2

        Yes, Nakiman, but since underemployment is at an all-time high, fewer than ever earning $27.50 ph make $55k pa.

        Beware Farrar’s analysis too. The real figure is somewhere in between.

      • Skinny 19.1.3

        And while you were on here Naki Man your farm hand will be hard out hosing cow shit into the local waterway. I bet once you break down the hands earnings he would be like many others, lucky to get $10 per hour!

        • Naki Man 19.1.3.1

          The days of cow shed shit going in the waterway are long gone. You really know f#@k all about farming.

          • Skinny 19.1.3.1.1

            Ok a little harsh about the shed to the waterway, however I see cows grazing and crapping in and on the banks of waterways (unfenced) most weeks. Is there an 0800 COWDUMPINRIVER number Fonterra have?

            • Naki Man 19.1.3.1.1.1

              I don’t know if there is a number for that, I think all farmers waterways should be fenced. Ring Fonterra and tell them. I am not a Farmer.

      • framu 19.1.4

        “average” and “half” arent the same things wonder boy

        look up the word “median”

        from the same fricken KB post – “The average or mean is different from the median,”

        next

      • freedom 19.1.5

        The number that many politicians and most big businesses really fear being understood by the public is the mode average of the hourly rate of income in New Zealand.

        It will be a lot lower then $27.55 /hr

        The mean is the usual average:
        (13 + 18 + 13 + 14 + 13 + 16 + 14 + 21 + 13) ÷ 9 = 15
        (this means someone earning 5 million a year is put into the range on an equal footing with someone on 12k a year, which is patently ridiculous)

        The median is the middle value:
        13, 13, 13, 13, 14, 14, 16, 18, 21
        There are nine numbers in the list, so the middle one will be the (9 + 1) ÷ 2 = 10 ÷ 2 = 5th number: So the median is 14.
        (slightly better for finding reality in wage figures, as it at least allows the number of people under the median to be identified, and it will be a much bigger number than those above the median)

        The mode is the number that is repeated more often than any other,
        13, 13, 13, 13, 14, 14, 16, 18, 21
        so 13 is the mode.

        imho. All three should be reported when there is discussion on an average wage.

        The mode is far and away the only fair and honest number to use when representing what is inferred by reporting an “average” hourly rate for a nation, ie the rate paid to the most people.

        • Tracey 19.1.5.1

          exactly, which is why I believe when it comes to wages the opposition needs to be talking about median so they can start phrases with half of kiwis…

      • Tracey 19.1.6

        LOL @ dont make shit up while linking to kiwiblog…

  20. Editor .Would you please note my change of email address.
    from [deleted] to [deleted]

    [lprent: No problem. ]

  21. Danske 21

    Polls are important as measure of (any) trend. NZ Labour should strengthten its position and put some distance from the Greens.

    We should act as its big uncle, not his equal cousin. It cannot react to some of Norman/Turei’s harebrained ideas.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 21.1

      Yeah, it’s happened already. I already pointed that out to you. Zombie arguments are such a tiresome waste of bandwidth.

  22. Tracey 22

    “we”??????

    some of us are voting green. you rdepth of analysis is mind boggling.

  23. Tanz 23

    why does the MSM think Key is so golden and perfect? They don’t ciritique him on anything.
    This is not good in an open democracy, forest for the trees. I don’t get why Key is so popular, I find him very transparent…

    do Labour need more foot soldiers.

  24. freedom 24

    BTW, The Standard is included in the new Horizon Poll questions, but oddly enough the sewer, recent winner of NZ’s Best blog award, is notably absent. Bit of ninth floor pressure there maybe?
    http://imgur.com/TYbdXsP

  25. swordfish 25

    For what it’s worth, here are the Party-Vote averages for polls taken during February in previous Election Years (with Election Result comparisons):

    2011

    Nat (Feb average) 53% / Election 47% (minus 6 points)
    Lab (Feb average) 33% / Election 27% (minus 6 points)
    Green (Feb average) 8% / Election 11% (plus 3 points)
    NZF (Feb average) 3% / Election 7% (plus 4 points)

    2008

    Nat (Feb average) 53% / Election 45% (minus 8 points)
    Lab (Feb average) 34% / Election 34% (Equal)
    Green (Feb average) 6% / Election 7% (plus 1 point)
    NZF (Feb average) 3% / Election 4% (plus 1 point)

    2005

    Nat (Feb average) 37% / Election 39% (plus 2 points)
    Lab (Feb average) 45% / Election 41% (minus 4 points)
    Green (Feb average) 5% / Election 5% (Equal)
    NZF (Feb average) 5% / Election 6% (plus 1 point)

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    Experiencing a locked computer can be frustrating, especially when you need access to your files and applications urgently. The methods to unlock your computer will vary depending on the specific situation and the type of lock you encounter. This guide will explore various scenarios and provide step-by-step instructions on how ...
    1 day ago
  • Faxing from Your Computer A Modern Guide to Sending Documents Digitally
    While the world has largely transitioned to digital communication, faxing still holds relevance in certain industries and situations. Fortunately, gone are the days of bulky fax machines and dedicated phone lines. Today, you can easily send and receive faxes directly from your computer, offering a convenient and efficient way to ...
    1 day ago
  • Protecting Your Home Computer A Guide to Cyber Awareness
    In our increasingly digital world, home computers have become essential tools for work, communication, entertainment, and more. However, this increased reliance on technology also exposes us to various cyber threats. Understanding these threats and taking proactive steps to protect your home computer is crucial for safeguarding your personal information, finances, ...
    1 day ago
  • Server-Based Computing Powering the Modern Digital Landscape
    In the ever-evolving world of technology, server-based computing has emerged as a cornerstone of modern digital infrastructure. This article delves into the concept of server-based computing, exploring its various forms, benefits, challenges, and its impact on the way we work and interact with technology. Understanding Server-Based Computing: At its core, ...
    1 day ago
  • Vroom vroom go the big red trucks
    The absolute brass neck of this guy.We want more medical doctors, not more spin doctors, Luxon was saying a couple of weeks ago, and now we’re told the guy has seven salaried adults on TikTok duty. Sorry, doing social media. The absolute brass neck of it. The irony that the ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    1 day ago
  • Jones finds $410,000 to help the government muscle in on a spat project
    Buzz from the Beehive Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones relishes spatting and eagerly takes issue with environmentalists who criticise his enthusiasm for resource development. He relishes helping the fishing industry too. And so today, while the media are making much of the latest culling in the public service to ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    1 day ago
  • Again, hate crimes are not necessarily terrorism.
    Having written, taught and worked for the US government on issues involving unconventional warfare and terrorism for 30-odd years, two things irritate me the most when the subject is discussed in public. The first is the Johnny-come-lately academics-turned-media commentators who … Continue reading ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    1 day ago
  • Despair – construction consenting edition
    Eric Crampton writes – Kainga Ora is the government’s house building agency. It’s been building a lot of social housing. Kainga Ora has its own (but independent) consenting authority, Consentium. It’s a neat idea. Rather than have to deal with building consents across each different territorial authority, Kainga Ora ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    1 day ago
  • Coalition promises – will the Govt keep the commitment to keep Kiwis equal before the law?
    Muriel Newman writes – The Coalition Government says it is moving with speed to deliver campaign promises and reverse the damage done by Labour. One of their key commitments is to “defend the principle that New Zealanders are equal before the law.” To achieve this, they have pledged they “will not advance ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    1 day ago
  • An impermanent public service is a guarantee of very little else but failure
    Chris Trotter writes –  The absence of anything resembling a fightback from the public servants currently losing their jobs is interesting. State-sector workers’ collective fatalism in the face of Coalition cutbacks indicates a surprisingly broad acceptance of impermanence in the workplace. Fifty years ago, lay-offs in the thousands ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    1 day ago
  • What happens after the war – Mariupol
    Mariupol, on the Azov Sea coast, was one of the first cities to suffer almost complete destruction after the start of the Ukraine War started in late February 2022. We remember the scenes of absolute destruction of the houses and city structures. The deaths of innocent civilians – many of ...
    1 day ago
  • Babies and benefits – no good news
    Lindsay Mitchell writes – Ten years ago, I wrote the following in a Listener column: Every year around one in five new-born babies will be reliant on their caregivers benefit by Christmas. This pattern has persisted from at least 1993. For Maori the number jumps to over one in three.  ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    1 day ago
  • Should the RBNZ be looking through climate inflation?
    Climate change is expected to generate more and more extreme events, delivering a sort of structural shock to inflation that central banks will have to react to as if they were short-term cyclical issues. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāMy pick of the six newsey things to know from Aotearoa’s ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 day ago
  • Bernard's pick 'n' mix of the news links
    The top six news links I’ve seen elsewhere in the last 24 hours, as of 9:16 am on Thursday, April 18 are:Housing: Tauranga residents living in boats, vans RNZ Checkpoint Louise TernouthHousing: Waikato councillor says wastewater plant issues could hold up Sleepyhead building a massive company town Waikato Times Stephen ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 day ago
  • Gordon Campbell on the public sector carnage, and misogyny as terrorism
    It’s a simple deal. We pay taxes in order to finance the social services we want and need. The carnage now occurring across the public sector though, is breaking that contract. Over 3,000 jobs have been lost so far. Many are in crucial areas like Education where the impact of ...
    2 days ago
  • Meeting the Master Baiters
    Hi,A friend had their 40th over the weekend and decided to theme it after Curb Your Enthusiasm fashion icon Susie Greene. Captured in my tiny kitchen before I left the house, I ending up evoking a mix of old lesbian and Hillary Clinton — both unintentional.Me vs Hillary ClintonIf you’re ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    2 days ago
  • How extreme was the Earth's temperature in 2023
    This is a re-post from Andrew Dessler at the Climate Brink blog In 2023, the Earth reached temperature levels unprecedented in modern times. Given that, it’s reasonable to ask: What’s going on? There’s been lots of discussions by scientists about whether this is just the normal progression of global warming or if something ...
    2 days ago
  • Backbone, revisited
    The schools are on holiday and the sun is shining in the seaside village and all day long I have been seeing bunches of bikes; Mums, Dads, teens and toddlers chattering, laughing, happy, having a bloody great time together. Cheers, AT, for the bits of lane you’ve added lately around the ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    2 days ago
  • Ministers are not above the law
    Today in our National-led authoritarian nightmare: Shane Jones thinks Ministers should be above the law: New Zealand First MP Shane Jones is accusing the Waitangi Tribunal of over-stepping its mandate by subpoenaing a minister for its urgent hearing on the Oranga Tamariki claim. The tribunal is looking into the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • What’s the outfit you can hear going down the gurgler? Probably it’s David Parker’s Oceans Sec...
    Buzz from the Beehive Point  of Order first heard of the Oceans Secretariat in June 2021, when David Parker (remember him?) announced a multi-agency approach to protecting New Zealand’s marine ecosystems and fisheries. Parker (holding the Environment, and Oceans and Fisheries portfolios) broke the news at the annual Forest & ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    2 days ago
  • Will politicians let democracy die in the darkness?
    Bryce Edwards writes  – Politicians across the political spectrum are implicated in the New Zealand media’s failing health. Either through neglect or incompetent interventions, successive governments have failed to regulate, foster, and allow a healthy Fourth Estate that can adequately hold politicians and the powerful to account. ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    2 days ago
  • Matt Doocey doubles down on trans “healthcare”
    Citizen Science writes –  Last week saw two significant developments in the debate over the treatment of trans-identifying children and young people – the release in Britain of the final report of Dr Hilary Cass’s review into gender healthcare, and here in New Zealand, the news that the ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    2 days ago
  • A TikTok Prime Minister.
    One night while sleeping in my bed I had a beautiful dreamThat all the people of the world got together on the same wavelengthAnd began helping one anotherNow in this dream, universal love was the theme of the dayPeace and understanding and it happened this wayAfter such an eventful day ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    2 days ago
  • Texas Lessons
    This is a guest post by Oscar Simms who is a housing activist, volunteer for the Coalition for More Homes, and was the Labour Party candidate for Auckland Central at the last election. ...
    Greater AucklandBy Guest Post
    3 days ago
  • Bernard's pick 'n' mix of the news links at 6:06 am
    The top six news links I’ve seen elsewhere in the last 24 hours as of 6:06 am on Wednesday, April 17 are:Must read: Secrecy shrouds which projects might be fast-tracked RNZ Farah HancockScoop: Revealed: Luxon has seven staffers working on social media content - partly paid for by taxpayer Newshub ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • Fighting poverty on the holiday highway
    Turning what Labour called the “holiday highway” into a four-lane expressway from Auckland to Whangarei could bring at least an economic benefit of nearly two billion a year for Northland each year. And it could help bring an end to poverty in one of New Zealand’s most deprived regions. The ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    3 days ago
  • Bernard's six-stack of substacks at 6:26 pm
    Tonight’s six-stack includes: launching his substack with a bunch of his previous documentaries, including this 1992 interview with Dame Whina Cooper. and here crew give climate activists plenty to do, including this call to submit against the Fast Track Approvals bill. writes brilliantly here on his substack ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • At a glance – Is the science settled?
    On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
    3 days ago
  • Apposite Quotations.
    How Long Is Long Enough? Gaza under Israeli bombardment, July 2014. This posting is exclusive to Bowalley Road. ...
    3 days ago
  • What’s a life worth now?
    You're in the mall when you hear it: some kind of popping sound in the distance, kids with fireworks, maybe. But then a moment of eerie stillness is followed by more of the fireworks sound and there’s also screaming and shrieking and now here come people running for their lives.Does ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    3 days ago
  • Howling at the Moon
    Karl du Fresne writes –  There’s a crisis in the news media and the media are blaming it on everyone except themselves. Culpability is being deflected elsewhere – mainly to the hapless Minister of Communications, Melissa Lee, and the big social media platforms that are accused of hoovering ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago
  • Newshub is Dead.
    I don’t normally send out two newsletters in a day but I figured I’d say something about… the news. If two newsletters is a bit much then maybe just skip one, I don’t want to overload people. Alternatively if you’d be interested in sometimes receiving multiple, smaller updates from me, ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    3 days ago
  • Seymour is chuffed about cutting early-learning red tape – but we hear, too, that Jones has loose...
    Buzz from the Beehive David Seymour and Winston Peters today signalled that at least two ministers of the Crown might be in Wellington today. Seymour (as Associate Minister of Education) announced the removal of more red tape, this time to make it easier for new early learning services to be ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    3 days ago
  • Bryce Edwards: Will politicians let democracy die in the darkness?
    Politicians across the political spectrum are implicated in the New Zealand media’s failing health. Either through neglect or incompetent interventions, successive governments have failed to regulate, foster, and allow a healthy Fourth Estate that can adequately hold politicians and the powerful to account. Our political system is suffering from the ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    3 days ago
  • Was Hawkesby entirely wrong?
    David Farrar  writes –  The Broadcasting Standards Authority ruled: Comments by radio host Kate Hawkesby suggesting Māori and Pacific patients were being prioritised for surgery due to their ethnicity were misleading and discriminatory, the Broadcasting Standards Authority has found. It is a fact such patients are prioritised. ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago
  • PRC shadow looms as the Solomons head for election
    PRC and its proxies in Solomons have been preparing for these elections for a long time. A lot of money, effort and intelligence have gone into ensuring an outcome that won’t compromise Beijing’s plans. Cleo Paskall writes – On April 17th the Solomon Islands, a country of ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago
  • Climate Change: Criminal ecocide
    We are in the middle of a climate crisis. Last year was (again) the hottest year on record. NOAA has just announced another global coral bleaching event. Floods are threatening UK food security. So naturally, Shane Jones wants to make it easier to mine coal: Resources Minister Shane Jones ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • Is saving one minute of a politician's time worth nearly $1 billion?
    Is speeding up the trip to and from Wellington airport by 12 minutes worth spending up more than $10 billion? Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The six news items that stood out to me in the last day to 8:26 am today are:The Lead: Transport Minister Simeon Brown announced ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • Long Tunnel or Long Con?
    Yesterday it was revealed that Transport Minister had asked Waka Kotahi to look at the options for a long tunnel through Wellington. State Highway 1 (SH1) through Wellington City is heavily congested at peak times and while planning continues on the duplicate Mt Victoria Tunnel and Basin Reserve project, the ...
    4 days ago
  • Smoke And Mirrors.
    You're a fraud, and you know itBut it's too good to throw it all awayAnyone would do the sameYou've got 'em goingAnd you're careful not to show itSometimes you even fool yourself a bitIt's like magicBut it's always been a smoke and mirrors gameAnyone would do the sameForty six billion ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago
  • What is Mexico doing about climate change?
    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections The June general election in Mexico could mark a turning point in ensuring that the country’s climate policies better reflect the desire of its citizens to address the climate crisis, with both leading presidential candidates expressing support for renewable energy. Mexico is the ...
    4 days ago
  • State of humanity, 2024
    2024, it feels, keeps presenting us with ever more challenges, ever more dismay.Do you give up yet? It seems to ask.No? How about this? Or this?How about this?When I say 2024 I really mean the state of humanity in 2024.Saturday night, we watched Civil War because that is one terrifying cliff we've ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    4 days ago
  • Govt’s Wellington tunnel vision aims to ease the way to the airport (but zealous promoters of cycl...
    Buzz from the Beehive A pet project and governmental tunnel vision jump out from the latest batch of ministerial announcements. The government is keen to assure us of its concern for the wellbeing of our pets. It will be introducing pet bonds in a change to the Residential Tenancies Act ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    4 days ago
  • The case for cultural connectedness
    A recent report generated from a Growing Up in New Zealand (GUiNZ) survey of 1,224 rangatahi Māori aged 11-12 found: Cultural connectedness was associated with fewer depression symptoms, anxiety symptoms and better quality of life. That sounds cut and dry. But further into the report the following appears: Cultural connectedness is ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago
  • Useful context on public sector job cuts
    David Farrar writes –    The Herald reports: From the gory details of job-cuts news, you’d think the public service was being eviscerated.   While the media’s view of the cuts is incomplete, it’s also true that departments have been leaking the particulars faster than a Wellington ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell On When Racism Comes Disguised As Anti-racism
    Remember the good old days, back when New Zealand had a PM who could think and speak calmly and intelligently in whole sentences without blustering? Even while Iran’s drones and missiles were still being launched, Helen Clark was live on TVNZ expertly summing up the latest crisis in the Middle ...
    4 days ago
  • Govt ignored economic analysis of smokefree reversal
    Costello did not pass on analysis of the benefits of the smokefree reforms to Cabinet, emphasising instead the extra tax revenues of repealing them. Photo: Hagen Hopkins, Getty Images TL;DR: The six news items that stood out to me at 7:26 am today are:The Lead: Casey Costello never passed on ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • True Blue.
    True loveYou're the one I'm dreaming ofYour heart fits me like a gloveAnd I'm gonna be true blueBaby, I love youI’ve written about the job cuts in our news media last week. The impact on individuals, and the loss to Aotearoa of voices covering our news from different angles.That by ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago
  • Who is running New Zealand’s foreign policy?
    While commentators, including former Prime Minister Helen Clark, are noting a subtle shift in New Zealand’s foreign policy, which now places more emphasis on the United States, many have missed a key element of the shift. What National said before the election is not what the government is doing now. ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    5 days ago
  • 2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #15
    A listing of 31 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, April 7, 2024 thru Sat, April 13, 2024. Story of the week Our story of the week is about adults in the room setting terms and conditions of ...
    5 days ago

  • $41m to support clean energy in South East Asia
    New Zealand is demonstrating its commitment to reducing global greenhouse emissions, and supporting clean energy transition in South East Asia, through a contribution of NZ$41 million (US$25 million) in climate finance to the Asian Development Bank (ADB)-led Energy Transition Mechanism (ETM). Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Climate Change Minister Simon Watts announced ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 hours ago
  • Minister releases Fast-track stakeholder list
    The Government is today releasing a list of organisations who received letters about the Fast-track applications process, says RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop. “Recently Ministers and agencies have received a series of OIA requests for a list of organisations to whom I wrote with information on applying to have a ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 hours ago
  • Judicial appointments announced
    Attorney-General Judith Collins today announced the appointment of Wellington Barrister David Jonathan Boldt as a Judge of the High Court, and the Honourable Justice Matthew Palmer as a Judge of the Court of Appeal. Justice Boldt graduated with an LLB from Victoria University of Wellington in 1990, and also holds ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 hours ago
  • Education Minister heads to major teaching summit in Singapore
    Education Minister Erica Stanford will lead the New Zealand delegation at the 2024 International Summit on the Teaching Profession (ISTP) held in Singapore. The delegation includes representatives from the Post Primary Teachers’ Association (PPTA) Te Wehengarua and the New Zealand Educational Institute (NZEI) Te Riu Roa.  The summit is co-hosted ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    8 hours ago
  • Value of stopbank project proven during cyclone
    A stopbank upgrade project in Tairawhiti partly funded by the Government has increased flood resilience for around 7000ha of residential and horticultural land so far, Regional Development Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones today attended a dawn service in Gisborne to mark the end of the first stage of the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    8 hours ago
  • Anzac commemorations, Türkiye relationship focus of visit
    Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters will represent the Government at Anzac Day commemorations on the Gallipoli Peninsula next week and engage with senior representatives of the Turkish government in Istanbul.    “The Gallipoli campaign is a defining event in our history. It will be a privilege to share the occasion ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    9 hours ago
  • Minister to Europe for OECD meeting, Anzac Day
    Science, Innovation and Technology and Defence Minister Judith Collins will next week attend the OECD Science and Technology Ministerial conference in Paris and Anzac Day commemorations in Belgium. “Science, innovation and technology have a major role to play in rebuilding our economy and achieving better health, environmental and social outcomes ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    11 hours ago
  • Comprehensive Partnership the goal for NZ and the Philippines
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with the President of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr.  The Prime Minister was accompanied by MP Paulo Garcia, the first Filipino to be elected to a legislature outside the Philippines. During today’s meeting, Prime Minister Luxon and President Marcos Jr discussed opportunities to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    22 hours ago
  • Government commits $20m to Westport flood protection
    The Government has announced that $20 million in funding will be made available to Westport to fund much needed flood protection around the town. This measure will significantly improve the resilience of the community, says Local Government Minister Simeon Brown. “The Westport community has already been allocated almost $3 million ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Taupō takes pole position
    The Government is proud to support the first ever Repco Supercars Championship event in Taupō as up to 70,000 motorsport fans attend the Taupō International Motorsport Park this weekend, says Economic Development Minister Melissa Lee. “Anticipation for the ITM Taupō Super400 is huge, with tickets and accommodation selling out weeks ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Cost of living support for low-income homeowners
    Local Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced an increase to the Rates Rebate Scheme, putting money back into the pockets of low-income homeowners.  “The coalition Government is committed to bringing down the cost of living for New Zealanders. That includes targeted support for those Kiwis who are doing things tough, such ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Government backing mussel spat project
    The Coalition Government is investing in a project to boost survival rates of New Zealand mussels and grow the industry, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones has announced. “This project seeks to increase the resilience of our mussels and significantly boost the sector’s productivity,” Mr Jones says. “The project - ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Government focused on getting people into work
    Benefit figures released today underscore the importance of the Government’s plan to rebuild the economy and have 50,000 fewer people on Jobseeker Support, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “Benefit numbers are still significantly higher than when National was last in government, when there was about 70,000 fewer ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Clean energy key driver to reducing emissions
    The Government’s commitment to doubling New Zealand’s renewable energy capacity is backed by new data showing that clean energy has helped the country reach its lowest annual gross emissions since 1999, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. New Zealand’s latest Greenhouse Gas Inventory (1990-2022) published today, shows gross emissions fell ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Earthquake-prone buildings review brought forward
    The Government is bringing the earthquake-prone building review forward, with work to start immediately, and extending the deadline for remediations by four years, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “Our Government is focused on rebuilding the economy. A key part of our plan is to cut red tape that ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Thailand and NZ to agree to Strategic Partnership
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and his Thai counterpart, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, have today agreed that New Zealand and the Kingdom of Thailand will upgrade the bilateral relationship to a Strategic Partnership by 2026. “New Zealand and Thailand have a lot to offer each other. We have a strong mutual desire to build ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government consults on extending coastal permits for ports
    RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop and Transport Minister Simeon Brown have today announced the Coalition Government’s intention to extend port coastal permits for a further 20 years, providing port operators with certainty to continue their operations. “The introduction of the Resource Management Act in 1991 required ports to obtain coastal ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Inflation coming down, but more work to do
    Today’s announcement that inflation is down to 4 per cent is encouraging news for Kiwis, but there is more work to be done - underlining the importance of the Government’s plan to get the economy back on track, acting Finance Minister Chris Bishop says. “Inflation is now at 4 per ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • School attendance restored as a priority in health advice
    Refreshed health guidance released today will help parents and schools make informed decisions about whether their child needs to be in school, addressing one of the key issues affecting school attendance, says Associate Education Minister David Seymour. In recent years, consistently across all school terms, short-term illness or medical reasons ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Unnecessary bureaucracy cut in oceans sector
    Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones is streamlining high-level oceans management while maintaining a focus on supporting the sector’s role in the export-led recovery of the economy. “I am working to realise the untapped potential of our fishing and aquaculture sector. To achieve that we need to be smarter with ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Patterson promoting NZ’s wool sector at International Congress
    Associate Agriculture Minister Mark Patterson is speaking at the International Wool Textile Organisation Congress in Adelaide, promoting New Zealand wool, and outlining the coalition Government’s support for the revitalisation the sector.    "New Zealand’s wool exports reached $400 million in the year to 30 June 2023, and the coalition Government ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Removing red tape to help early learners thrive
    The Government is making legislative changes to make it easier for new early learning services to be established, and for existing services to operate, Associate Education Minister David Seymour says. The changes involve repealing the network approval provisions that apply when someone wants to establish a new early learning service, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • RMA changes to cut coal mining consent red tape
    Changes to the Resource Management Act will align consenting for coal mining to other forms of mining to reduce barriers that are holding back economic development, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “The inconsistent treatment of coal mining compared with other extractive activities is burdensome red tape that fails to acknowledge ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • McClay reaffirms strong NZ-China trade relationship
    Trade, Agriculture and Forestry Minister Todd McClay has concluded productive discussions with ministerial counterparts in Beijing today, in support of the New Zealand-China trade and economic relationship. “My meeting with Commerce Minister Wang Wentao reaffirmed the complementary nature of the bilateral trade relationship, with our Free Trade Agreement at its ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Prime Minister Luxon acknowledges legacy of Singapore Prime Minister Lee
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon today paid tribute to Singapore’s outgoing Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong.   Meeting in Singapore today immediately before Prime Minister Lee announced he was stepping down, Prime Minister Luxon warmly acknowledged his counterpart’s almost twenty years as leader, and the enduring legacy he has left for Singapore and South East ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • PMs Luxon and Lee deepen Singapore-NZ ties
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong. While in Singapore as part of his visit to South East Asia this week, Prime Minister Luxon also met with Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam and will meet with Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong.  During today’s meeting, Prime Minister Luxon ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Antarctica New Zealand Board appointments
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has made further appointments to the Board of Antarctica New Zealand as part of a continued effort to ensure the Scott Base Redevelopment project is delivered in a cost-effective and efficient manner.  The Minister has appointed Neville Harris as a new member of the Board. Mr ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Finance Minister travels to Washington DC
    Finance Minister Nicola Willis will travel to the United States on Tuesday to attend a meeting of the Five Finance Ministers group, with counterparts from Australia, the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom.  “I am looking forward to meeting with our Five Finance partners on how we can work ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Pet bonds a win/win for renters and landlords
    The coalition Government has today announced purrfect and pawsitive changes to the Residential Tenancies Act to give tenants with pets greater choice when looking for a rental property, says Housing Minister Chris Bishop. “Pets are important members of many Kiwi families. It’s estimated that around 64 per cent of New ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Long Tunnel for SH1 Wellington being considered
    State Highway 1 (SH1) through Wellington City is heavily congested at peak times and while planning continues on the duplicate Mt Victoria Tunnel and Basin Reserve project, the Government has also asked NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) to consider and provide advice on a Long Tunnel option, Transport Minister Simeon Brown ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • New Zealand condemns Iranian strikes
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Foreign Minister Winston Peters have condemned Iran’s shocking and illegal strikes against Israel.    “These attacks are a major challenge to peace and stability in a region already under enormous pressure," Mr Luxon says.    "We are deeply concerned that miscalculation on any side could ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Huge interest in Government’s infrastructure plans
    Hundreds of people in little over a week have turned out in Northland to hear Regional Development Minister Shane Jones speak about plans for boosting the regional economy through infrastructure. About 200 people from the infrastructure and associated sectors attended an event headlined by Mr Jones in Whangarei today. Last ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
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  • Health Minister thanks outgoing Health New Zealand Chair
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