On the accuracy of online polls

Written By: - Date published: 8:52 am, March 25th, 2013 - 30 comments
Categories: polls, privatisation - Tags:

The proportion on people who have pre-registerd for Mighty River Power, according to the Stuff poll:

mighty river power prereg

Reality:

mighty river power prereg 2

(440,000 pre-registrations, well short of the half a million the Right was touting)

Methinks the readership of newsites leans significantly to the middle class and elite.

Out of interest – about 70% of pre-registrations became people who actually bought shares in the Contact sale – 180,000 people. A further 1% of the population didn’t pre-register but bought later. Today, less than 2% of Kiwis own Contact shares.

30 comments on “On the accuracy of online polls”

  1. Lanthanide 1

    The second graph, if anyone else is trying to work out what it is showing because it isn’t properly labelled, is raw # of people who have pre-registered, out of the total population. The scale across the bottom is millions of people, eg the population of NZ.

    • UpandComer 1.1

      That little line would still be bigger then that other line for people signing a bought and paid for fake petition.

  2. pmofnz 2

    Second graph ‘well short of half a million’. Do you have a credible link for that slur attributed to the Right?

  3. Watching 3

    Both sides of the argument are using illogical stats to prove their point. No wonder the population of NZ is getting bored.

    I thought Norman’s press release over the weekend was weak: that because only 10% of the population pre-registered then 90% of the population is against assets sales. On that same logic you could argue that as the Green received 10% odd of the 2011 election vote (which at guess would be about 6% of the total population) then over 90% of the population does not support Green policy – which is also a stupid point to derive from the stats.

    Also on the pre-registered numbers (1) did you have to be over a certain age to pre-registered – linked to having an IRD number and (2) quite a few people I know have decided not to pre-registered as they don’t have the money and will be getting the investment via KiwiSave

    Back to the reality of online polls – they are fun things. If you believe in them, then I hope when somebody says to you next “I have an unbelievable deal for you” that you stop & have a coffee before making a decision.

    • Lightly 3.1

      anyone NZer could pre-register, including kids.

    • felix 3.2

      “Also on the pre-registered numbers (1) did you have to be over a certain age to pre-registered – linked to having an IRD number “

      Anyone could register anyone.

      You could register your kids. You could register your dog. You could register the leaders of the Labour and Green parties FFS.

      No IRD numbers required.

      • Ed 3.2.1

        Given that the rules appear to have been changed “on the hoof” as it were to give those who have pre-registered higher allocations, those in the know may well have pre-registered in the names of each of their family, each trust, and combinations of these – any combination which could be allocated shares and then sell them to a sensible holding for the wider family. that is assuming National do the predictable and under-price to assure a “success”. So 440,000 pre-registrations may only represent say 400,000 individuals. We will never know how many ‘rogue’ pre-registrations there are (such as that for David Shearer) just to get the numbers up . . .

        • felix 3.2.1.1

          “So 440,000 pre-registrations may only represent say 400,000 individuals.”

          Or 220,000 individuals registering for 2 people.

          Or 100,000 individuals, another 100,000 registering for 2, and 35,000 registering for 4.

          etc etc.

  4. Adrian 4

    The 10% is about the upper level of the long term share ownership numbers in NZ. Normally it is only about 7% but rises temporarily after big offers like this. Wealth Transfer 101. Thieving arseholes.

    • Raymond a Francis 4.1

      Thieving arseholes” because they can afford to buy the shares?
      We have a lot of people talking about all NZers owning these asserts but how many are net tax payers
      Most of the protesters don’t appear to fall into the category being to young for starters

      • Colonial Viper 4.1.1

        Civilisation started to go down hill when we stupidly expanded the vote beyond property owning Christian men of good (tax paying) standing.

        PS people paying for stolen or dubious goods with cash bear some culpability don’t they?

      • Colonial Viper 4.1.2

        Most of the protesters don’t appear to fall into the category being to young for starters

        The sad thing is that the generation which is 50+ has been actively thieving from NZs young for a couple of decades now.

        Key, English, Joyce. How much did they have to pay for their educations? Were they always able to find good paying jobs over the summer holidays which let them save up enough money for the following full year at uni? And when they bought their first house…how much did it cost, perhaps a whole 4x or 5x the median wage?

        • Tim 4.1.2.1

          Please don’t include the ENTIRE generation – though I agree that all those Onslow College contemporaries of mine – most anyway, professing socialist, or left wing leanings – now Pulp magazine editors, media commentators, spin doctors, bankers, Munstas of the Krearn (etc.) probably fit your stereotype (with some justification).
          I used to always be suspicious of them when ‘flatting’ (to coin a quaint old term), when most used to take their washing home to mumsy at weekends.
          Tragic specimens now the most of them! Generally: paunchy, grey haired and unhappy white old men chanting the very same racist taunts at the breakdown in society my great grandparents once did. (Funny too how majority of their kids have turned out absolute fuckups).
          Pagini beware!

          • Colonial Viper 4.1.2.1.1

            Please don’t include the ENTIRE generation

            Understood. I have several excellent mentors that I respect within that generation; sadly too many others however seem rather more privileged, self serving and narrowly conscious in their attitudes.

      • Adrian 4.1.3

        I’m 63 and almost all of my contemporaries are upset at this wealth transfer i.e, theft. What a lot of people don’t realise is that the foregone returns to the Treasury coffers have to be replaced from elsewhere. If only 7% of NZers can afford to buy shares and hence profit from same, the shortfall in tax is made up from all taxpayers therefore subsidising what will almost certainly eventually be large fund mamagers. Stupid, stupid policy.

  5. vto 5

    I just love how floating the power companies means less kiwis end up owning them.

    Great.

    Well done Nats, you fucking bozos.

    • Draco T Bastard 5.1

      I just love how floating the power companies means less kiwis end up owning them.

      And that those few who do end up owning the power companies end up with unearned wealth from everyone else.

  6. pollywog 6

    If all those 400k kiwi mums and dads blow their wad on Mighty River, who is going to buy up the next round of shares ?

    • Colonial Viper 6.1

      Godman Sachs. Using money printed by the US Fed.

      • SpaceMonkey 6.1.1

        +1… Even if it’s not an in-yer-face Goldman Sach-style pump and dump IPO (e.g. Facebook), I’m picking the shares will still initially fall post-IPO, perhaps based on some new information that we’ll be told was unforeseen, e.g some debt that was moved off the balance sheets temporarily to make the books look better.

        It will be enough to panic Ma and Pa investor into selling and Goldman and the rest will be waiting in the wings to vacuum them up – having probably also made a nice little windfall shorting the share price along the way.

        Within 5-10 years the power companies will have shareholdings that look like Fletcher, nothing remotely NZ-owned about them.

  7. AsleepWhileWalking 7

    Is anyone else thinking this is starting look like a pump’n’dump?

    http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pumpanddump.asp

    Easy to get names from electorial roll.

  8. Ant 8

    Don’t see why registering is automatically equated to supporting asset sales – most people seem to see it as registering for easy money/returns.

    • Ed 8.1

      Or for encouraging the government to set the price as high as possible – we know there will be an element of give-away, but if they think it will be over-subscribed they may actually feel they have to avoid too big a rush as that would imply the price was too low . . .

    • Tim 8.2

      A point I’d been trying to make way back when. Some even have more noble intention other than
      “registering for easy money/returns.”

  9. Rich 9

    They pretty much give themselves away with their “alternative online census”:
    http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/8373937/Alternative-census-what-you-told-us

    See Q.23 34% earning over $100,000 (for the general population, it’s below 5%).

  10. Richard 10

    Online poll results are easily manipulated and, in my opinion, should never be taken seriously.

    To start manipulating the results, all you need is to is vote on the poll using each of the browsers you have. With Firefox, IE, Chrome, Safari and Opera installed, you can vote 5 times on an issue within a minute of first seeing the poll which grabs your attention. I’m sure there are plenty of people who feverishly do this.

Leave a Comment

Show Tags

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • A real heart stopper?
    The story of a Hamilton man who jumpstarted his heart with an electric fencing unit may be a classic bit of ‘number 8’ wire thinking but it also reveals a lot about our stressed health system, says Labour’s Health spokesperson ...
    1 hour ago
  • Why has Pike footage been hidden for so long?
    New footage of workers servicing a robot in the Pike River drift appears to show that going into the drift doesn’t pose the danger the Government and Solid Energy claimed, says Leader of the Opposition Andrew Little. ...
    18 hours ago
  • Nats’ housing policy fails to keep pace with population growth
    Auckland got less than half the new houses it needed in the past year to keep up with record population growth, says Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford. ...
    3 days ago
  • Urgent action needed on dirty rivers
    The Our Fresh Water Environment 2017 report re-confirms that we need urgent action to clean up our rivers. Meanwhile, National is standing by as our rivers get even more polluted, says Labour’s Environment spokesperson David Parker. “This report is yet ...
    4 days ago
  • Where there’s smoke and mirrors, there’s Steven Joyce
    Steven Joyce’s much vaunted pre-Budget speech is simply an underwhelming response to the infrastructure deficit National has created, says Labour’s Finance Spokesperson Grant Robertson. “Steven Joyce has belatedly come to the realisation that everyone else has a long time ago, ...
    4 days ago
  • Time to stamp out cold, mouldy rentals
    New figures show a small number of landlords are letting down the sector by renting cold, mouldy rentals. These houses need to be brought up to a decent standard for people to live in by Andrew Little’s Healthy Homes Bill, ...
    5 days ago
  • Time for fresh approach on immigration
    Latest figures showing another record year for immigration underlines the need for an urgent rethink on how this country can continue to absorb so many people, says Labour Leader Andrew Little. “New Zealand needs immigrants and is all the better ...
    5 days ago
  • Bring back the Mental Health Commission
    The People’s Mental Health Review is a much needed wake up call for the Government on mental health, says the Leader of the Opposition Andrew Little.   “I applaud their proposal to restore a Mental Health Commission and their call for ...
    7 days ago
  • And the band played on…
    Making Amy Adams the Housing Minister five months out from the election is just the orchestra playing on as National’s Titanic housing crisis slips below the waves – along with the hopes and dreams of countless Kiwi families, says Labour’s ...
    7 days ago
  • Hotel no place for children in care
    ...
    1 week ago
  • Maybe not, Minister? Nick Smith’s housing measure suppressed
    Sir Humphrey: Minister, remember the Housing Affordability Measure work you asked us to prepare back in 2012? Well, it’s ready now.Minister Smith: Oh goodie, what does it say?Sir Humphrey: Nothing.Minister Smith: Nothing?Sir Humphrey: Well, sir, you asked us to prepare ...
    1 week ago
  • Inflation data shows many New Zealanders are worse off under National
    The latest inflation data from Statistics New Zealand shows that too many New Zealanders are now worse off under the National Government, said Labour’s Finance Spokesperson Grant Robertson “Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) is now running at 2.2 per cent, and ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Another emergency housing grant blow out
      Emergency housing grants data released today show another blow out in spending on putting homeless people up in motels, says Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford.   ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Families struggle as hardship grants increase
    The considerable increase in hardship grants shows that more and more Kiwi families are struggling to put food on the table and pay for basic schooling, says Labour’s Social Development spokesperson Carmel Sepuloni. ...
    2 weeks ago
  • More tinkering, no leadership from Nats on immigration
    National’s latest tinkering with the immigration system is another attempt to create the appearance of action without actually doing anything meaningful, says Leader of the Opposition Andrew Little. ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Suicide figures make for grim reading
    The 506 suspected suicides of Kiwis who have been in the care of mental health services in the last four years show that these services are under severe stress, says Labour’s Health spokesperson David Clark.   “If you do the ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Pay equity deal a victory for determination and unions
    The pay equity settlement revealed today for around 55,000 low-paid workers was hard-won by a determined Kristine Bartlett backed by her union, up against sheer Government resistance to paying Kiwis their fair share, says Labour Leader Andrew Little. “Labour welcomes ...
    2 weeks ago
  • DHB’s forced to make tough choices
    The Minister of Health today admitted that the country’s District Health Boards were having to spend more than their ring fenced expenditure on Mental Health, says Labour’s Health spokesperson David Clark.   “The situation is serious with Capital and Coast ...
    3 weeks ago
  • Nats break emergency housing pledge – deliver just five more places
    Despite National’s promises of 2,200 emergency housing beds, just 737 were provided in the March Quarter, an increase of only five from six months earlier, says Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford. ...
    3 weeks ago
  • Research underlines need for KiwiBuild
    New research showing the social and fiscal benefits of homeownership underlines the need for a massive government-backed building programme like KiwiBuild, says Labour’s housing spokesperson Phil Twyford. ...
    3 weeks ago
  • Social data security review too little, too late
    The independent review into the Ministry of Social Development’s individual client level data IT system is too little, too late, says Labour’s Social Development spokesperson Carmel Sepuloni. “The Minister of Social Development has finally seen some sense and called for ...
    3 weeks ago
  • More questions raised on CERA conflicts
    With the admission that three more former CERA staff members are under suspicion of not appropriately managing conflicts of interest related to the Canterbury rebuild, it’s imperative that CERA’s successor organisation Ōtākaro fronts up to Parliamentary questions, says Labour’s Canterbury ...
    3 weeks ago
  • Labour to tackle Hutt housing crisis
    Labour will build a mix of 400 state houses and affordable KiwiBuild homes in the Hutt Valley in its first term in government to tackle the housing crisis there, says Leader of the Opposition Andrew Little. “Housing in the Hutt ...
    3 weeks ago
  • Farewell to John Clarke
    This wonderfully talented man has been claimed by Australia, but how I remember John Clarke is as a young Wellington actor who performed satirical pieces in a show called “Knickers” at Downstage Theatre. The show featured other future luminaries like ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty
    3 weeks ago
  • Valedictory Speech
    Te papa pounamu Aotearoa NZ Karanga karanga karanga; Nga tupuna Haere haere haere; Te kahui ora te korowai o tenei whare; E tu e tu ... tutahi tonu Ki a koutou oku hoa mahi ki Te Kawanatanga; Noho mai noho ...
    3 weeks ago
  • Buck stops with Gerry Brownlee
    The fact that the State Services Commission has referred the CERA conflict of interest issue to the Serious Fraud Office is a positive move, but one that raises serious questions about the Government’s oversight of the rebuild, says Labour Canterbury ...
    3 weeks ago
  • Teachers deserve a democratic Education Council
    Teachers around New Zealand reeling from the news that their registration fees could more than double will be even angrier that the National Government has removed their ability to have any say about who sits on the Council that sets ...
    3 weeks ago