Open mike 01/12/2024

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, December 1st, 2024 - 42 comments
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Open mike is your post.

For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose.

The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).

Step up to the mike …

42 comments on “Open mike 01/12/2024 ”

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  1. Ad 1
    1 December 2024 at 7:38 am

    So, what do we make of the Labour conference so far?

  2. SPC 2
    1 December 2024 at 8:17 am

    A new poll leaked to Stuff. The worst for the C of C since the election

    A new poll, shared exclusively with Stuff, has Labour on 32% ahead of National on 31%, and Hipkins above Luxon as preferred prime minister on 22.7% compared with 22.1%. The poll, taken from November 22-28, has ACT and the Greens on 10% each, Te Pāti Māori on 7% – more than double its party vote in the 2023 general election – and NZ First on 6%.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/politics/360505907/labour-leader-chris-hipkins-starts-his-pitch-tax-reform

    Coughlan in the Herald

    Edmonds focus on the challenges ahead (fiscal).

    The societal issue (as per co-governance and the Treaty) and the speech of Willie Jackson.

    https://archive.li/isJ2U#selection-4039.177-4039.229

    On tax. The passing of a remit

    The Labour Party has decided by “remit” to consider either either a wealth tax or a CGT, but not others new taxes (such as an inheritance tax).

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/labour-inches-closer-to-wealth-tax-or-cgt-after-membership-vote/XNVEHJCDJFGDJM5DNKQ3PUGH6Q/

    • SPC 2.1
      1 December 2024 at 8:17 am

      For mine the best option is a wealth tax with restoration of the bright-line tax on existing property (or all residential investment property with a mortgage surcharge on existing investment property, excluding new builds).

      But with the consideration that the wealth tax payments be seen as a down payment on any future estate tax.

      Thus a wealth tax unpaid would be attached to the estate and one paid would be a down payment on any future liability on the estate.

      For example 1% per annum for 15 years being about 1/2 a 30% estate tax pre paid.

      The relevant point being at what level the wealth tax and estate tax is applied.

      In jurisdictions with an estate tax, most do not pay any. And most wealth taxes include only the top 5-10%.

    • ianmac 2.2
      1 December 2024 at 7:21 pm

      Poll in round figures:

      COC=47%

      Lab/Green/TPM = 49%

  4. Dennis Frank 4
    1 December 2024 at 9:06 am

    When it comes to the fine art of (mis)management of infrastructure projects, kiwis tend to excel – but Auckland needs a higher level of expertise: https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/535301/city-rail-link-french-executives-to-fly-to-nz-as-officials-raise-concerns-over-costs

    Since the report doesn't say why (no reference to any foreign investment) we can only surmise that French execs do it better than kiwis. Or perhaps the going rate for consultants on the global market favours the French (due to exchange rates)?

    The back story is here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/City_Rail_Link – says the original plan was launched a century back. It has been mostly viewed with benign neglect since then by National & Labour, until a radical shift happened this century, and now capitalism is making it real. Via magical thinking, apparently.

    The Link Alliance is a consortium of seven companies https://www.cityraillink.co.nz/crl-the-link-alliance

    7 is the magic number, as established by psych prof George Miller in the mid-20th century, in his best-seller of that name. So the thing is working like magic: it is becoming real. Googles AI Overview:

    The Auckland City Rail Link (CRL) is funded by the Crown (New Zealand Government) and Auckland Council

    Taxpayers & ratepayers, in other words. The sucking sound you hear in the background is made by dollars flowing from these 2 groups into the bank accounts of the 7 firms.

    Originally the City Rail Link (CRL) was expected to cost $2-3 billion, but had since ballooned to $5.5b.

    Ballooning costs amplify that sucking sound, and they are an essential feature of infrastructure development. Standard theory of banking (agreed cost/benefit conditions) got replaced by magical thinking then normalised by National and Labour, so wealth extraction by capitalists is a magical system working extremely well in Aotearoa today.

    • Ad 4.1
      1 December 2024 at 12:13 pm

      Close to commissioning major public transport systems, it's very common to bring in experts at both technical and governance levels to verify all the stages of signoff. There is zero in-country expertise for this here.

      No, it's nothing to do with which firms are in the Link Alliance, but you can thank your lucky stars that Vinci are one of them because they are the recognised European experts in underground public transport systems.

      Don't forget this system was started off by Labour's Mayor Len Brown, agreed to by Natioal's John Key, then supported by Labour's Ardern, and will be completed by National's Luxon and the hard-right Mayor Brown.

      If you want transformational-scale public transport shifts, pony up. No one's going to give it to you for free.

      • gsays 4.1.1
        1 December 2024 at 6:23 pm

        The obvious question is what do the other 6 companies bring to the table?

        Apart from a good suckle reflex of course?

  5. koina 5
    1 December 2024 at 9:21 am

    The Left wing will not win back a political majority until 2029.

    Not because of any Left policy or personal changes, or any thing the Right does either .

    The left will get in Simply because the folk in the swing electorates

    will swing left again like they swung right in 2023 .

    It's a 75 year old pattern.

    Certainly nothing to do with the economy or tax.

    And what makes them swing?

    Identity politics.

    In the left wing swing they vote against the evil arrogant prejudice right wing bullies.

    In the left wing swing they vote against minorities.

    So what do the left parties do for the next 5 years of certain opposition?

    Don't think of winning the election all the time that's what the right do.

    Remind everyone that hate politics is what the Right wing is all about.

    Promote the Left belief in the freedom of individual unique life style.

    Don't let polls, popularity and elections always contaminate your true self.

    • Bearded Git 5.1
      1 December 2024 at 9:41 am

      Bollocks Koina. This is a deeply unpopular government after only 12 months in power. It is headed by a PM who is weak and has poor political and inter-personal skills.

      The te tiriti bill, climate change denial and the ferries and Dunedin hospital debacles will see them lose significant votes. You don't piss off a million Maori and expect to win an election.

      Borrowing money to give tax cuts to landlords and the better off will also cost them votes.

      This is a one-term government.

      • koina 5.1.1
        1 December 2024 at 11:27 am

        Only if you read The standard and 99.999999999999999999999% of people in this

        country don't read The Standard.

        ZB and the Platform are saying this Government is amazingly popular.

        • Drowsy M. Kram 5.1.1.1
          1 December 2024 at 12:29 pm

          99.999999999999999999999% of people in this country don't read The Standard.

          Too many 9s koina. You and I read (and post comments on) The Standard, so that's two "people in this country" (Aotearoa NZ?) who read TS.

          And three other people have commented ["Bollocks Koina"; "The "concern" troll posts again!"; “Dry up you grumpy old scrote“] in this thread you initiated @5, so that makes at least five "people in this country" who read TS – always assuming they're five different people wink

          Then there are the five other Standardistas who, like your good self, have commented on Open mike 01/12/2024, so that makes at least ten "people in this country" who read TS.

          Ten out of 5,230,000 Kiwis is roughly 0.0002%, so at most 99.9998% "of people in this country don't read The Standard."

          Is our CoC govt “amazingly popular“?

        • Obtrectator 5.1.1.2
          1 December 2024 at 4:09 pm

          "ZB and the Platform are saying this Government is amazingly popular."

          Well they would, wouldn't they?

      • gsays 5.1.2
        1 December 2024 at 6:12 pm

        Gotta say BG, if yr local political radar is anything like yr US election analysis and post mortem, Koina might be on the money. 😜

        • Bearded Git 5.1.2.1
          2 December 2024 at 12:19 am

          We will see in two years gsays.

          Presumably you see enough Maori haters and climate change denier dinosaurs out there to re-elect this duplicitous and incompetent rabble.

          • gsays 5.1.2.1.1
            2 December 2024 at 5:49 am

            See, yr making the same mistake again.

            That only stupid people vote for Trump/racists and CC deniers vote for the CoC.

            Incompetence was one of the accusations against the last regime. Ardern Hipkins, Woods, Parker then it tailed off quick.

    • Tony Veitch 5.2
      1 December 2024 at 11:14 am

      The "concern" troll posts again!

    • Ad 5.3
      1 December 2024 at 12:14 pm

      Dry up you grumpy old scrote.

  6. Dennis Frank 6
    1 December 2024 at 10:33 am

    Whenever things seem bleak, remember this:

    Research shows that individual acts of kindness and connection can have a real impact on global change when these acts are collective. This is true at multiple levels: between individuals, between people and institutions, and between cultures. This relational micro-activism is a powerful force for change – and serves as an antidote to hopelessness because unlike global-scale issues, these small acts are within individuals’ control.

    https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/12/01/can-small-acts-of-kindness-really-change-the-world-science-says-yes/

    the idea that small, interpersonal acts have large-scale impact is explained by what psychologists call cognitive dissonance

    I've made the point onsite here previously that this psychological state is catalytic. That was from years of anecdotal evidence, so its good to see it validated by science.

    Numerous studies support the power of individual acts of connection to drive larger-scale change.

    That requires further clarification. Scaling up personal influence into collective contexts is generally acknowledged as a happening thing, but the theory to explain the effect remains too opaque currently.

    Every human being is embedded in their own network with the people and world around them, what psychologists call their social ecology.

    Social ecology is the Green view of culture. It focuses on ecosystemic relations between people and their operating arena. Power relations (drivers of politics) are a subset.

  7. Sanctuary 7
    1 December 2024 at 11:11 am

    The rout of the Assad regime forces in Syria to the surprise Turkish backed rebel offensive is going to destroy the entire Russian/Iranian project in the region. Like it or not, it is a direct result of Israeli weakening of Hizbollah and Iran and the heroic ongoing Ukrainian resistance to Russian imperialist adventurism. Putin's new Axis is overstretched and starting collapse like a house of cards.

    • Ad 7.1
      1 December 2024 at 12:18 pm

      Surely the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria and the sustained collapse of Lebanon would create more civic chaos, more growth in warring militias, and hence more military attacks around Israel, not less?

    • Res Publica 7.2
      1 December 2024 at 6:50 pm

      Given that the recapture of Aleppo appears to be spearheaded by fighters from Islamist groups, I don't know if that this new offensive is such a good thing, Sanctuary.

      We have to ask why Turkey would back anti-regime forces in Syria. In my mind, the most likely reasoning is that it's an attempt to prolong the civil war in Syria by weaking the Assad regime and allow them to continue to cement their position as regional hegemon.

      The fact that it will no doubt kill a whole bunch of troublesome Kurds on both sides is just a bonus.

  8. joe90 8
    1 December 2024 at 11:21 am

    Erdogan closes in on his neo-Ottoman dream.

    @Charles_Lister

    Well placed sources say #Assad remains in #Moscow, while much of his family & close allies are also abroad — in #Russia & the #UAE. That adds a stunning extra angle to the collapse of northern #Syria.

    https://x.com/Charles_Lister/status/1862897532256256063

    https://www.jewishpress.com/news/middle-east/syria/attempted-coup-detat-taking-place-in-damascus/2024/11/30/

  9. Dennis Frank 9
    1 December 2024 at 11:42 am

    Pregnant men are where its at:

    Much of the build-up to the case has focused on a particular detail in the Scottish Government’s submission, which claims that maternity provisions can be extended to “pregnant men”. Aidan O’Neill KC, representing For Women Scotland, said in court this week that those two words are a “legal fiction”. And yesterday, far away from the Supreme Court in London, O’Neill received support from an unexpected source.

    During a press conference in Edinburgh, Scottish First Minister John Swinney stated, in response to a journalist’s question, that males cannot become pregnant. Seated next to me in Courtroom 1 yesterday was former SNP MP Joanna Cherry, who noted online: “I am pleased that John recognises this biological reality, but I’m presently sitting in the UK Supreme Court watching his Government’s lawyers argue the opposite.”

    The case began in 2018, when the Scottish Government passed a law which took as its definition of “woman” anyone who identifies as one. An advocacy group, For Women Scotland, challenged this in court and won.

    But then the SNP replaced this with guidance suggesting the definition of a woman in the Equality Act 2010 is not just a person born female, but is also changed “for all purposes” by the Gender Recognition Act. Last year, For Women Scotland went to court once again to challenge that definition – but lost. The group’s appeal will now be decided by the Supreme Court. https://unherd.com/newsroom/supreme-court-puzzles-over-definition-of-woman/

    So women will be legally defined by 10 men & 2 women. Could be a split decision, huh? I wonder if they will employ a genetics academic authority to get the fine print right. We must keep in mind that a paradigm shift applies here: trans folk user-defined identity categories. Academics are mostly anchored within antique paradigms.

  10. tWig 10
    1 December 2024 at 1:55 pm

    Debunking conspiracies aotearoa FB asks if Winston investigated himself as part2 of the covid response inquiry.

    Quoting him at the time of covid measures: "No jab means no job, no parole".

  11. Ad 11
    1 December 2024 at 2:56 pm

    Well, good speech from Hipkins at Conference.

    Concrete in its promises, low on attacks, suitably indistinct on tax.

    Commitment to full rail and ferry across Cook Strait, full build of Dunedin Hospital, more pay increases for workers, and a definite NO to AUKUS.

    Not sure if this is the same guy that lost the election, but he was solid here.

    • aj 11.1
      1 December 2024 at 3:48 pm

      I give Hipkins and most of labour a bit of slack leading into the last election. As a team the epidemic had exhausted them, Hipkins had covid and a crucial week off in the campaign, I don't give much slack to the MPs who footripped thier own players.

    • Craig H 11.2
      1 December 2024 at 5:43 pm

      Agree, and I was also pleased to hear him recommitting to reinstating smokefree legislation and undoing tobacco tax breaks.

    • Bearded Git 11.3
      2 December 2024 at 10:13 am

      Yes nice clear messaging from Labour.

  12. joe90 12
    1 December 2024 at 7:30 pm

    ETTD strikes again.

    .

    Journalists flock to Bluesky as X becomes increasingly 'toxic'

    https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/social-media/bluesky-x-becomes-social-media-rcna181685

    The European Federation of Journalists, EFJ, says starting January 20, it will discontinue posting content on the Elon Musk-owned social media platform X.

    In a statement on its website, EFJ says it can no longer ethically participate in a social network whose owner peddles disinformation and propaganda.

    https://nationwideradiojm.com/european-federation-of-journalists-to-stop-posting-on-x/

  13. ianmac 13
    1 December 2024 at 7:37 pm

    Nick Rockel does a great job of putting Luxon in context. Jack worked so hard to get an answer from the verbose dodging Luxon. Do we respect luxon? Nah!

    https://nickrockel.substack.com/p/luxon-finally-shows

  14. Dennis Frank 14
    1 December 2024 at 8:26 pm

    Farrar does a grump:

    I am no fan of Candace Owens. I think she is a grifter who peddles conspiracy theories and has promoted many deeply anti-semitic things – but if enough New Zealanders wish to pay money to hear from her, they should be able to do so. The decision by Immigration NZ prevents them from being able to do so. https://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2024/12/banning_candace_owens_from_nz_a_terrible_decision.html

    Such ideological purity is like encountering a flower in the cultural desert. It's not as if he's criticising a govt decision – even if he actually is – it's that he's blaming an anonymous bureaucrat, but only by implying they got it wrong, because the wrong-doer is unaccountable to the public so its okay really. Nat think.

    she is far from a fringe figure. She has interviewed one on one the President-Elect of the United States. Her YouTube channel has over 3 million subscribers and almost half a billion views. On Instagram she has over 5 million followers, Twitter 6 million and almost a many on Facebook. That is more than the entree NZ media combined.

    Does he mean the entire NZ media combined? Or is he performing with eclectic literary flair? It does suggest the woman is a social influencer with considerable sway, so the authorities are running scared. Will Lux notice that his govt is clamping down on free speech? Only if Seymour realises he ought to push Lux's button.

  15. Obtrectator 15
    1 December 2024 at 10:26 pm

    Interesting analysis of the deep undercurrents in US politics that played a part in That Man's victory a month ago:

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/30/the-deep-historical-forces-that-explain-trumps-win

    (Though I think it's a bit of a stretch to call Oliver Cromwell a revolutionary.)

    • Dennis Frank 15.1
      2 December 2024 at 8:17 am

      This bit points to a primary dimensional driver, framed as triad:

      we’re in a good position to identify just those impersonal social forces that foment unrest and fragmentation, and we’ve found three common factors: popular immiseration, elite overproduction and state breakdown.

      To get a better understanding of these concepts and how they are influencing American politics in 2024, we need to travel back in time to the 1930s, when an unwritten social contract came into being in the form of Franklin D Roosevelt’s New Deal. This contract balanced the interests of workers, businesses and the state in a way similar to the more formal agreements we see in Nordic countries. For two generations, this implicit pact delivered an unprecedented growth in wellbeing across a broad swath of the country. At the same time, a “Great Compression” of incomes and wealth dramatically reduced economic inequality.

      For about 50 years the interests of workers and the interests of owners were kept in balance, and overall income inequality remained remarkably low.

      Embedded in that text is a supplementary triad: "workers, businesses and the state" which converts to labour/capital/state as the generic driver of development. Political scientists ought to spot this opportunity to endow their discipline with theory via intellect, since the metaphysical basis is so simply evident. Economists could then get in behind, to become rational for a change.