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Open mike 01/08/2013

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, August 1st, 2013 - 125 comments
Categories: open mike - Tags:

Open mike is your post. For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose.

The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the link to Policy in the banner).

Step right up to the mike…

125 comments on “Open mike 01/08/2013 ”

  1. AsleepWhileWalking 1


    *MAD AS HELL* reporter Andrea Vance about being spied on – a threat if you ask me and a not so quiet warning for anyone disagreeing with government policies.

    This is a must read article for everyone as far as I’m concerned.

    Anyone have tips on how to avoid being spied on?

    I’ve heard about Silent Circle, communicating using the “drafts” folder in email (so messages aren’t actually sent and therefore can’t be intercepted). Seems timely to figure out ways around this. Not that I have anything to hide(!)

  2. Jenny 2

    In answer to a question about what Labour will do about this bill on gaining power, David Cunliffe has said this bill should not, can not, and will not stand.

    David Shearer has pointed out (Despite John Key’s denial), that documents reveal that the GCSB were instrumental in illegally passing on the time stamped metadata used to track Andrea Vance’ movements through parliament. This illegally collected and passed on metadata evidence, was used to finger Peter Dunne as the source of the leak of that revealed that 88 Kiwis were being illegally spied on by the GCSB.

    In retalliation the GCSB/SIS, (without actually handing it over), let Winston Peters see Peter Dunne’s private email exchange with Andrea Vance. According to Peters, Dunne’s private emails included a lot of personal and embarrassing detail about Peter Dunne’s relationship with Andrea Vance that Peter Dunne would find deeply humiliating or even distressing for him if released.

    The GCSB want the right to collect everyone’s metadata.

    We have witnessed in microcosm how the GCSB are exercising that power illegally now.

    Are you shocked are you appalled?

    The GCSB ammendment bill seeks to make the abuse of metadata that we have witnessed in microcosm by this shadowy secret agency against Dunne and Vance not only legal, but universal, over every single inhabitant of this country. Not just monitoring reporters, but everyone. And not just movements through parliament, but the whole of society.

    In defence of this (still currently) illegal activity our Prime Minister has lied.

    Andrea Vance speaks out:


    “….I am that journalist and I’m mad as hell. Anyone who has had their confidential details hacked and shared around has the right to be angry.

    My visit to Speaker David Carter’s office on Tuesday left me reeling. My jaw gaped open when he sheepishly confessed that a log of all calls I placed to people around Parliament over three months was released to an inquiry focused on the leak of the Kitteridge report on the GCSB.”

    Andrea Vance

    “On Tuesday, an IT staffer showed me pages of “metadata” – a record of hundreds of calls I made between February and May.

    The conversations, of course, aren’t disclosed. But you can glean a lot from matching numbers, time and the dates of published stories.”

    Andrea Vance

    “Details of inquiry head David Henry’s intrusive and outrageous behaviour have had to be dragged from all parties. (He, curiously, omitted any reference of the swipe card records from his report.)

    Can I, and my sources, be confident the records weren’t viewed? They were held on a Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet server up until Tuesday night. Why – if they had acted so properly – did the Henry inquiry not notify me of this intrusion? It rankles that Key was told days before I was.

    I don’t know who had access to my records. And I’m suspicious why on June 5, less than a week after the unauthorised release, NZ First leader Winston Peters was making some startling allegations about phone records in the House. Neither the prime minister’s office, the Speaker or Parliamentary Service have been able to offer a guarantee that there was no leak to Peters.”

    Andrea Vance

    As David Cunliffe says “this bill cannot stand”.

    • Pascal's bookie 2.1


      that documents reveal that the GCSB were instrumental in illegally passing on the time stamped metadata used to track Andrea Vance’ movements through parliament.

      Bullshit. Card access data isn’t metadata, it’s the normal bog standard data. Collecting those ‘timestamps’ is what the cards do, it’s the bit of data they are designed to collect. The GCSB wouldn’t be needed to get that data, PS already have it. And the ‘documents’ don’t show anything like what you claim as fact.

      Getting this stuff right is important, if you hype it and say stupid shit about it, it hurts the cause.

      Please stop.

  3. AsleepWhileWalking 3

    Income related rent subsidy extended to all:

    Community housing providers told a select committee yesterday that they generally supported social housing reforms which were designed to shift housing assistance from the state to the community sector.

    Organisations especially supported a proposal to give non-government providers access to the same subsidies as Housing New Zealand. This meant churches, iwi, trusts and other NGOs would be able to charge tenants no more than 25 per cent of their income to rent social houses, and Government would top up the difference to the market rent of the house.

    But the community housing sector and public health researchers strongly opposed moves to increase the “churn” or rate of turnover in social housing by making all tenancies fixed-term, three-year contracts.

    I think the “churn” is a good idea and can’t see any reason why we should for example allow a single parent who’s children have left to remain in a 3brm house. It is inefficient and a total waste of housing stock not to mention subsidy.

    • Olwyn 3.1

      Security of tenure though is important, and where applicable it is possible to persuade people to shift to smaller houses through a process of consultation; ensuring that they are not shoved out of their community and that their present needs really are met.

      • bad12 3.1.1

        I somewhat agree with AWW, however and please correct me if i am in error but AWW seems to be pushing a punitive line,

        Here is what SHOULD happen at the front end of the tenancy not at the back end when the kids have all grown up and left home,

        It’s fine to want the right sized housing stock to match the size of the family that occupies them, BUT, when a tenant with a family is granted such a tenancy they should be informed both verbally and by a condition in the rental agreement that once the family has grown and if they still need State housing that they may be required to move to accommodation that matches their needs,AND,it must be the duty of the PROVIDER to those families required to downsize to provide them with the accommodation that meets their current needs at the same 25% of income as rent,

        The only reason we are having this discussion is in fact because every government after the Kirk Labour Government has ensured that the number of State Houses for rent has not grown while the population has grown by 1 million,

        We are woefully short of State houses by at least 30,000 houses, and , Auckland’s current and ongoing housing affordability issues in my opinion are a direct result of this,

        What i am pleased with is that there now appears to be a consensus that Social and/or State housing should never exceed as a rental 25% of a tenants household income and i would like to see legislation that reflects this,

        I still see no evidence or logical reason why large tranches of the States housing stock should be vested in the ‘social sector’, the State has been the major and successful provider of ‘social housing’ since the First Labour Government,

        Tinkering with the current State Housing stock will provide nothing but confusion of responsibility, it is not tinkering that is required, what is required is an ongoing comprehensive State House building program which lifts the number of State Houses to such a number so that Low Waged working families can be housed…

        • millsy

          I dont know about anyone else, but I seem to think that increasing the state housing stock would solve the problem of housing affordability….

          • Draco T Bastard

            Yep, the state should ensure that there is an over supply of housing. Having people living homeless isn’t efficient due to the social harm that it does.

            • srylands

              “Yep, the state should ensure that there is an over supply of housing”

              Or markets could provide houses. We need efficient markets.

              • Draco T Bastard

                No such thing as an efficient market. If there was then the government wouldn’t need to step in to provide housing.

              • bad12

                30 years of the State not being a major player in the building of new housing stock isn’t long enough for you to ascertain that the market has failed to respond sufficiently to meet demand,

                Even Slippery the Prime Minister has stated that in Auckland the market has failed…

          • srylands

            Yes because state houses are cool places to live. I was raised in a state house, and lived in one until I was 17. It is not something anyone should aspire to.

            • Draco T Bastard

              My experience with state houses is that they’re no different to any other house and in many cases a lot better.

            • bad12

              Is this another of your ‘story’s akin to i am a big time economist looking to hire employees for 150 grand a year,

              People aspire to be housed in such a situation where their income can pay the rent plus put a decent feed on the table at meal times,

              What do you find to be so ‘wrong’ with State Housing…

            • Rosetinted

              You wouldn’t aspire to a state house? They probably have been run down since your day. But you are too proud and superior to want to live in a state house aren’t you, not like ‘those people’.

              And economists don’t have to. They’re well paid. They can buy up a solid rather stolid old state house and give it a makeover – comes up like a polished gem. The old houses might be a little plain even rough but they were well built. Even today’s which may be less so are somewhere secure to live and are found good by people who want their own place.

              It’s only bloody snobs that would turn up their noses at a healthy state house in good repair. And it’s only economists who love figures on a page, rather than real people who would put beneficiaries through an annual scare that they might be turned out for some spurious reason. It’s much like those pictures of Victorian landlords turning a fainting woman with a child in her arms out into the snow.

              • Rosetinted

                Further to my comment above – there is another reason why people would turn down a perfectly good state house. That is if it was too far from whatever work is available, whatever education is available, whatever medical help was available, whatever supportive family or friends that are available, and it takes too long to travel to these aids to living, the transport is too sparse, and that the transport is too dear to pay for the family to travel to these places and services.

            • millsy

              And you want other kids to live on the street…?

      • Rosetinted 3.1.2

        You offer a practical approach to ‘efficient’ housing for low income people. People shouldn’t be pushed around like pieces on a chess board. There are deep human reasons such as being social animals why people should be able to live in an area where they know others and are familiar with the location.

        But more, children from homes with money and/or other difficulties tend not to learn well if they are shifted from one school to another as the family is forced to move when they are in their early to mid school years. Then when they are in college level education their studies and learning routines, if disrupted, can mean poor assessments or examination outcomes. Secure housing is more important than not having a spare bedroom.

        It is beginning to sound like Russia after communism arrived. The wealthy had spare rooms in their houses given to the poor as it was deemed to be fair when there were so many poor and needy. In NZ you become equivalent to a decadent aristocrat if living in a 3 bedroom house when you could fit into a 2 bedroom. Garages next!

        Hey what about renting those large people movers for overnight accommodation for the homeless. They and large 4wds are often left parked at the kerb just empty. What a waste of expense and space, when opening them up to doss down for the night would be so efficient, and would save land and expense on alternative accommodation. What a brilliant idea!

        • Chooky

          +1 agreed Rosetinted….”People shouldnt be shifted around like pieces on a chess board” ….and there is no reason they should if the state were to keep up the numbers of houses to accommodate NZers….as well as the jobs and free education and skills training

          Another reason for preventing those non NZ overseas residents from buying up scarce NZ housing stock….and helping create unaffordable house pricing.

          • McFlock

            Indeed, especially as it’s often the older people who have settled down (and whose kids have flown) who have the time and inclination to say “hi” to regulars on the street, have a natter, and generally build a community. It’s one thing to meet in day care or in the school or church (other important community anchors), but actually having people in the street also helps.

    • Murray Olsen 3.2

      Of the people I’ve known that were in state housing, many, many more were overcrowded rather than underutilised. I knew of situations with up to 10 in a 3 bedroom house, but none with a single person. I think we have to be very careful, as always, to frame the dialogue on the basis of need rather than greed. In this case, the greed of developers to get their paws on any appealing land still in the public domain.

  4. Colonial Viper 4


    One of the NSAs most powerful tools now revealed.


    • richard 4.1

      One presentation claims the XKeyscore program covers ‘nearly everything a typical user does on the internet’

      “Nice” to see that NZ contributes to this – Waihopi highlighted as a data source location.
      Given this statement…

      “The government doesn’t need to ‘target’ Americans in order to collect huge volumes of their communications,” said Jaffer. “The government inevitably sweeps up the communications of many Americans” when targeting foreign nationals for surveillance.

      … I wouldn’t be surprised if the GCSB uses a similar rationale to ‘target’ far more than the 80 odd people they have admitted to.

    • Tiger Mountain 4.2

      Authoritarianism pure and simple.

      Yesterdays joke on fb, –“GCSB and NSA, the only NZ and US government departments that really listen to you”

  5. Sanctuary 5

    If everyone is in a raw panic over the threat of a new housing price bubble, why is there seemingly no concern whatsoever about the agricultural land price bubble going on? Today on the rural news they noted a new increase in the milk solids payout to dairy farmers, followed by the usual platitudes abut farmers prudently using it to retire debt, yet then the commentating analyst from the bank noted the total farm debt is actually up again. Surely that is a huge red flag to the government??? Could it be that at a time of unprecedented high dairy prices, farmers appear to be using the money not to retire debt but to get into a pryamid scheme of speculative land purchasing for dairy conversions that can be flicked on for tax-free capital gain? We had better all pray the milk solid prices stay firmly high, because if the bubble ever bursts in the dairy sector you might as board up half of provincial New Zealand.

    • Saarbo 5.1

      Yes, its happening. Agricultural debt is now over $50 billion.

      When the North Island was in drought early this year the international dairy prices increased.
      A westpac economist claimed that part of the explanation for the increase in the international dairy price was because of the fall in volume caused by the North Island drought, I was surprised when I heard this. I would have thought that a relatively small fall in volume would not impact dairy prices. This just highlights how incredibly volatile the dairy commodity price is. Given the supply of dairy products that are coming out of Chile, Uruguay and other South American countries I guess it is possible that dairy prices could go the same way as coal. But the Bank economists are saying that China etc are going to consume any extra supply, but as we have seen with what happened during the drought, small changes in supply can have fairly big impacts in dairy prices.

      Watch this space.

    • muzza 5.2

      Why would farm debt be a “huge red flag to the government”?

      The government is owned by the banking system controllers, farming and control over NZ’s primary export industry, and the resources required to keep the industry moving, was identified, long ago, along with NZ’s mineral/oil/gas resources, as required to keep under control.

      Can’t have a nation accessing its resources for the greater good of anyone but the so called, elite!

    • bad12 5.3

      LOLZ, your post jiggled free a LIE that Bill from Dipton told in the Parliament yesterday, in answer to a patsy question from some non-entity on National’s back bench who i have never heard of and probably never will again,

      English said this, this National Government has ensured that interest rates are low and families have lowered their household debt as a result of this,

      Say what Bill, household debt is higher than it’s ever been and whoever is holding the brown end of the stick as Government when the Reserve Bank finally gets round to raising interest rates wont last longer than the following election as the pain from the over-blown debt being carried by the middle class gets translated into votes…

    • millsy 5.4

      “We had better all pray the milk solid prices stay firmly high, because if the bubble ever bursts in the dairy sector you might as board up half of provincial New Zealand.”

      You had better buy timber company shares then, because when the Chinese and the Russians start using the expertise they have siphoned from buying up our farms and agriculture companies to establish huge super dairy farms the size of this country on the steppes of Siberia, etc, and simply railing the produce out to Europe, then our farmers will go the way of our manufacurers.

      • cricklewood 5.4.1

        Excepting of course that the major competitive advantage we have over most is the relativily friendly climate which helps keep production high and input costs comparitivily low…

      • Poission 5.4.2

        the Russians start using the expertise they have siphoned from buying up our farms and agriculture companies to establish huge super dairy farms the size of this country on the steppes of Siberia, etc,

        The Russians (lavrov) offered us substantive low cost land for enhanced sustainable agriculture development key and Grocer stuffed it up by insisting on short term (tariff reduction) in the FTA.

    • Rosetinted 5.5

      What a blow to find that every time we appear to be going ahead successfully in farming or anything it gets screwed up and we end up pressing the wrong buttons and going down the wrong track. If we do well our dollar goes up and our exports stagnate and we import too much stuff.
      (Theres a book looking at the role of clothing on consumption in the world, I think it is second in the spending stakes after food.) If anyone wants to know the name of the book I’ve got it, just have to look it up.

      And you wonder, is it actually a one-way track. Is there no way back? And then you think about who is driving this thing – are they well-trained, practical and careful thinkers or are they like that Spanish guy, in the wrong place and going too fast to stop wrecking everything.

  6. yeshe 6

    Is this the framework for our bill ?? STOP THE GCSB BILL AT ALL COSTS !

    “The Guardian today has revealed a training guide for a program called XKeyscore, which NSA documents call the agency’s “widest-reaching” system for gathering Internet information. The program monitors everything anyone does on the Internet, from the content of emails to websites visited, searches, chats, and metadata. It can also be used to watch real-time Internet activity. The quantity of data collected is so huge—1 billion to 2 billion records a day—that they can only be stored for several days, with more “interesting” data saved for longer.

    Though an NSA worker would need a warrant to target a U.S. citizen, the agency can collect data on any citizen in communication with someone on foreign soil without a warrant.


    • Colonial Viper 6.1

      And frakking General Alexander claims that the system is so safe that he can’t even access his daughter’s emails. Fucking lying prick.

  7. Sam 7

    I doubt if Labour, whether under Cunliffe or Shearer, will repeal the GCSB bill. Once in government they would like nothing more than to be able to spy on us. So don’t think it will ever be repealed. Such talk from Labour leaders is there to appease the masses and to get votes in 2014. Secretly they will welcome the bill, they are revelling in the fact that it is the current government giving them a nice present. This bill is designed to create a Gestapo (right wing) or a Stasi (left wing) organisation to keep us all under surveillance.

    • weka 7.1

      It will be an election issue. You really think Labout are going to campaign saying they will repeal the bill, and then renege after the election, given that if they win they will most likely win by a small margin? Don’t forget the GP either.

      • Colonial Viper 7.1.1

        Wrong approach, if I may suggest. You pressure Labour to commit to completely reworking the GCSB legislation to ensure the absolute maximum of democratic transparency and oversight possible as part of their manifesto, and then when Labour get in you pile on the pressure and absolutely force them to do it via popular pressure, as part of their first year in Government.

        No more fucking trusting any politician bastards to keep their word, we have to make them do the right thing.

        BTW you can’t just have the new legislation repealed, because the old legislation is an absolute dogs breakfast full of loopholes to start with.

  8. David H 8

    I see there will be an Privileges committee inquiry into the leaking of Andrea Vances Emails/phone records. However I feel there will be another coverup/whitewash as the leader of the inquiry is the NAT MP Finlayson. Why oh Why can’t they JUST have an independent inquiry?

    • weka 8.1

      Because then there will need to be an inquiry into the Privileges Committee inquiry. Then an inquiry into that inquiry…

  9. Tamati 9

    Cheers to who made the new mobile site! Very clean and easy to use.

  10. Adrian 10

    No it’s not!

  11. Adrian 11

    It’s not easy to look at Tamati, 1/3 of the screen is taken up with battleship grey. It’s a bloody screen use it all, and don’t say just lose it by pressing a few more buttons, useability should mean pressing less bloody buttons. BTW, that was a beauty, a real big jolt.

    • bad12 11.1

      I am out East of the city, sure felt that one, not quite as big out here tho i think, maybe a third of the power of the 6.5…

      • Colonial Viper 11.1.1

        4.9 geonet says?

        • weka

          Has there been any discussion about the current quakes in light of what happened to Chch? Smaller quake first and then big one 6 months later?

          • bad12

            From what the Boffins have been saying Christchurch was more or less ‘direct hits’ whereas Wellingtons lot where more of ‘proximity’,

            Should the 6.5 have occurred on the Wellington Fault which hasn’t apparently moved in a zillion years i could well imagine that the damage would have been way more severe and widespread,

            The last biggy that moved things around a bit in Wellington was on the Wairarapa Fault and raised parts of Wellington by a meter, Kairangi, the island i live on, at that point i believe stopped being an island…

    • lprent 11.2

      It’s not easy to look at Tamati, 1/3 of the screen is taken up with battleship grey

      What kind of phone? What screen size?
      How does it compare to the old theme? Which had the banner at the top.

      • cricklewood 11.2.1

        It looks pretty good on my Samsung only snag been I don’t have a reply button on each of the comments.
        Am enjoying the fast load of comment heavy posts previously once a post got near 100 comments I had to flush the cache etc to even have a chance of getting them to load let alone have the ability to scroll through with any speed

      • David H 11.2.2

        Wow! Now that is better, so easy to see now. I am commenting on my Laptop but i just had to have a look on phone. A LG Optimus one with a 320 x 480 pixel, 3.2 inch (~180 ppi pixel density) screen

  12. Treetop 12

    Second reading of the GCSB bill today and the reality has to now be setting in.

    Sir Bruce Ferguson and Sir Jeffery Palmer have been out spoken in the last week exposing how undemocratic this bill is, e.g. rushed, will pass with a 1 vote majority and how the bill needs to be a conscience vote.

    The sad reality is that Key cannot see the damage which he is going to cause with the passing of the bill and his attitude is I will have it my way like a SPOILT BRAT. Also Key has excluded many other better options e.g. having a review, looking at other international models, appointing people with intelligence and legal experience to have oversight of the GCSB/SIS (Shearer raised these points on morning report).

    • Winston Smith 12.1

      Yeah who does he think he is? The Prime Minister of the country or something? Its almost as if he thinks that getting enough votes to pass a bill means it becomes law or something…the gall of the man

      • Treetop 12.1.1

        “Yeah who does he think he is? The Prime Minister of the country or something?”

        What makes a good Prime Minister?

        Power corrupts as in being a dictator and those who surround a dictator are also culpable. Palmer even used the word “dictator” when he was interviewed on Campbell Live earlier in the week.

        • Winston Smith

          Golly gee well if Geoff Palmer says it then it was be true, that explains why JKs cancelled all elections, banned other political parties and why editors and journalists are being thrown in prison left right and centre

          • Treetop

            I am not going to split hairs, on second thoughts Palmer may have said dictatorial.

            If you think a good Prime Minister can run the GCSB using legislation going back to 1976 before computers/smart phones were part of everyday life and knowlingly being aware of how the public feel about the management of the GCSB I find this to be short sighted.

            Does an inquiry into an inquiry which is not independent some how make it alright?

      • Draco T Bastard 12.1.2

        The position of PM isn’t that of a dictator no matter how much you RWNJs wish it was.

        • idlegus

          some journalist said ‘temporary leader’ which i thought was the right description.

  13. Adrian 13

    And I note there is no clock as to what time comments were made. Handy if replying to something that may be hours ( or days old ), and the whole argument has moved on. And also handy to see if it’s just the booze talking at 2am.

    • weka 13.1

      If you use the reply button, your comments will make more sense 🙂

      • lprent 13.1.1

        There is a one wee problem with the new mobile version – no reply button.

        Adrian *might* be using a mobile. I have a query off with the developers asking WTF! It isn’t a hard trick to do, they have the threading ok in this version…

        • weka

          Interesting. So is this something written specifically for ts, or is it a more general thing that you’ve adapted?

    • lprent 13.2

      .. as to what time comments were made..

      I presume this is for the new mobile version? I’ll be attacking that part of the theme tonight. I didn’t notice it when I was testing *bad lprent*

      The lack of a reply is the most severe functional problem though.

      Works a whole lot better than the old version. I get some rendering hassles on my android test phone which are irritating.

    • Treetop 13.3

      Thank you for your practical suggestion and I usually give the day at least!

      Re the booze, not applicable concerning me.

      The best I can do is to provide the following info.

      GCSB bill heads back to Parliament for second reading 08:09 1 August 2013 morning report.

  14. chris 14

    Mr Key’s latest… Al Qaeda have “trainees” in NZ, they have been trained in places like Yemen… ffs

    • joe90 14.1

      The man thinks we’re fools..or something else.

      Prime Minister John Key has justified the changes to the country’s spying laws by saying some people in New Zealand have been trained by al-Qaeda in places such as Yemen.

      Mr Key said in “the real world” powers to spy on civilians was necessary.

      “In New Zealand there are people who’ve been trained for al-Qaeda camps who operate out of New Zealand, who are in contact with people overseas, who have gone off to Yemen and other countries to train.

      “I’m sorry, but that’s the real world.”

      He said it was a “robust regime” before a signature was placed on a warrant to spy on someone.

      “I wish those things didn’t happen in New Zealand,” Mr Key said.

      “But if people don’t believe there’s the odd person in New Zealand who presents a potential threat, either on the international stage or in New Zealand, unfortunately they’re wrong.”


      • srylands 14.1.1

        Sounds sensible to me and it will for most New Zealanders. No traction there.

        • Poission

          The changes in the GCSB bill emphasize the “economic well being of New Zealand”.

          Which entails the careful watch of money launderers and recidivist cartels that have gone rogue.

          The question is why are they still trading in the NZ marketplace?

          Whilst Key suggests that we need to be guarded as to a handful of people who have trained in Yemen,do we also have to have watching briefs on MBA from Harvard.

          We know US residents are more prone to criminal behavior as the US has 25% of the worlds prison population,should we enhance our border protection to target visitors from the US?

      • richard 14.1.2

        Looks like the Mark Taylor story is about to get dusted off for another outing:

        Key’s initial spin: http://www.3news.co.nz/Key-confirms-Kiwi-linked-to-al-Qaeda-living-in-NZ/tabid/423/articleID/224171/Default.aspx

        But then the truth comes out: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10751170

        Problem for Key is that this all happened in 2009-2011

  15. King Kong 15

    Following the Roy Morgan poll it is noticable that alot of the Cunliffe harpies (excluding the institutionalised ones) on this site have gone very quiet. The Shearer hating appears to have died down.

    It is not like there hasn’t been bait laid either. Alot of recent posts have provided ample opportunity to put the boot in.

    Of course we all know that Shearer is going to get rolled, what we don’t know is when.

    This weird lull could be viewed as a barometer reading for a very fast approaching storm.

    • weka 15.1

      I haven’t noticed a decrease in criticism of Shearer here. It’s just that we’ve been talking about the GCSB so much. But when the talk turns to Labour, amongst the good discussion on policy, there’s still plenty of comments about Shearer. What blog are you actually reading?

    • Lanthanide 15.2

      I think there’s not all that much left to say on Shearer. We’re just waiting now.

    • Treetop 15.3

      Which one?

      A vote for Labour is a vote for Shearer or a vote for Shearer is a vote for Labour?

      Either way it makes no difference even though a person may have a preference for whom they would like to be the leader of a political party. E.g. Banks and the Act party.

  16. .. so how how come they are going up in the polls ?
    What does that say about New Zealand today ?

    [lprent: off topic – moved to OpenMike. Read the policy and consider yourself warned. ]

    • r0b 16.1

      The polls always reflect last month or so. At the moment they reflect Duncan Garner’s solo Labour leadership challenge, and the “man ban” beat up. Next month (or the next) they will reflect this lot…

      • Ant 16.1.1

        The polls reflect that most peoples exposure to politics is the shit John Key spins on More FM etc.

      • lprent 16.1.2

        Yep. After watching the damn things closely for the last 6 years, the lag seems to vary between 5 and 8 weeks most of the time. It shortens to about 2-3 weeks at election times. But they are always laggy.

        On the other hand, there is a distinct trend over the last 3 polls and that GCR is “disturbing”

        • McFlock

          Indeed. I’m not liking the vibe. Even if there’s a slight bounce next time, it’ll still not mean labour’s out of the woods.

          • Colonial Viper

            I take much heart from your previous comments McFlock that we mustn’t look at a single poll result and cry that the sky is falling. Shearer is doing fine, Labour is sitting on a natural rate of 32%-33% and this is most likely a one off low result which won’t be repeated.

            Even at 29%, its still a good deal higher than the actual 2011 election result and Shearer must be given credit for that, as you have correctly mentioned on previous occasions.

            • McFlock

              It’s not the 29% that’s a concern (although it is a threshold-breaker), it’s the last four polls results. And what about the Greens, bucko? Is their lowest result since the election (and below their election performance) Shearer’s fault, too?

              I mean, I know nobody’s happier than you at the thought of the left being back to where it was 18 months ago (not even Key), but you might have the decency to cut a hole in your trouser pocket rather than simply unzipping to show everyone your ecstatic reaction.

              • QoT

                I do love how the new tactic to deflect commentary on Labour’s poll results is “butbutbut the GREENS are down too!!!! You must think that’s Shearer’s fault!!!!”

                Makes just as much sense as demanding that we ignore Labour’s performance unless we also talk about Act’s.

                • McFlock

                  No, because I’ve always argued for a left government, not just a labour one.

                  Try thinking about it a bit:
                  Problem: national are gaining support, the opposition are losing support. Both of them. Both the greens and labour have lost similar proportions of support in the same time period.

                  Whatever caused the sudden shift is not just restricted to labour. I know it goes against the gripefest mantra that it’s all just down to the (possibly imaginary) warring faction in the labour caucus that the fanclub doesn’t support, but reality can be a bitch like that.

                  • Colonial Viper

                    What? Greens support is hovering totally within its true level of 12% +/- 2%.

                    Don’t panic McFlock, the sky is NOT falling, the “Left” which you are so proud of is still on track to win.

                    No, because I’ve always argued for a left government, not just a labour one.

                    As you wish it, so it will be. I have total faith in Labour and the Greens. Why don’t you? Find your faith again, and let’s get this ride moving!

                    • srylands

                      When the Greens DO get into government watch their support crash to 6% as the Oriental Bay and Aro Valley Greens who own 2 rental properties see the light.

                    • McFlock

                      What? Greens support is hovering totally within its true level of 12% +/- 2%.

                      yeah, we’ll just ignore their couple of 14.5%s since 2011, shall we?

                      So basically, what you’re sarcastically arguing is that labour has a “true level” of something like 32% (and this is due to their bad performance), whereas their likely coalition partners have a “true level” of around 12% (perfectly fine performance from them, though).

                      If your idea of a “true level” of support is not complete bullshit, what is national’s “true level” of support?
                      And doesn’t that mean an eternity of national rule, because 31+12 will always be 43, never 53?

                    • Colonial Viper

                      yeah, we’ll just ignore their couple of 14.5%s since 2011, shall we?

                      No, don’t ignore them, but I would expect a couple of results (very marginally) outside the +/-2% margin of error on the basis of a 95% CI.

                      But the vast majority of results for the Greens lie exactly +/- 2% of 12%.

                    • McFlock

                      No, don’t ignore them, but I would expect a couple of results (very marginally) outside the +/-2% margin of error on the basis of a 95% CI

                      actually, fair call on that given your broad MoE and 37 datapoints..

                      and your thoughts on:

                      If your idea of a “true level” of support is not complete bullshit, what is national’s “true level” of support?
                      And doesn’t that mean an eternity of national rule, because 31+12 will always be 43, never 53?

                    • Colonial Viper

                      National could actually rule the country permanently, if they were focussed on serving the top 33%, instead of just the top 1%.

                    • McFlock

                      so everything is futile, and the leadership really doesn’t matter.

                      Bit of a fucking grim viewpoint, though.

                    • Colonial Viper

                      I’m being at all negative – I’ve just adopted your view that the Labour Leader, whoever it may be, is not really an important factor for electoral success.

                      BTW, National can’t help but sabotage themselves and help out their crony millionaire mates. They’ll be thrown out eventually. But post WWII, National has been in power for many more years than Labour.

                    • McFlock

                      I’ve just adopted your view that the Labour Leader, whoever it may be, is not really an important factor for electoral success.

                      Come now, not “just”, by any means. You are being far to modest. You’ve added an entirely new and boldly innovative sociopolitical model of a static “true level” of party support within the NZ population.

                      Thank goodness Labour now has your political genius working for it!

                    • Colonial Viper

                      May I also commend you on your boldly innovative concept that a political party’s leader is largely irrelevant to how that party performs in the electorate. Quite stunning thinking, really.

                    • McFlock

                      You are most kind, but it’s hardly revolutionary to suggest that a single person might have slightly less effect on an outcome than their three-dozen (give or take) colleagues, 65 more powerful competitors, and the aligned ranks of the New Zealand media.

  17. BeeDee 18

    “.. so how how come they are going up in the polls ?
    What does that say about New Zealand today ?”

    The real question might be: What does that say about the polling system?

    Are polls conducted via landlines only? Of those wealthy enough/culturally still interested in paying for a landline? Many people I know now only use cell phones.

    [lprent: Off topic – moved to OpenMike. Read the policy and consider yourself warned. ]

    • BM 18.1

      I hear Roy Morgan only polls people still on party lines.

      The polls are complete nonsense, Labour is incredibly popular and these polls are purely a bankster neo liberalist smoke screen to keep the population in the dark and prop up a dying rich prick fascist dictatorship.

      • North 18.1.1

        Irony is not your thing BM…….you’re far too piggishly “my own selfishly perceived interests” driven. Arising no doubt out of your prideful claims of having “done fabulously well in business blah blah blah.”

    • gobsmacked 18.2

      Read the Roy Morgan report (linked elsewhere). Not just landlines.

      Also read the date of polling period.

  18. Adrian 19

    I’m on an Ipad lprent. on broadband wi=fi in a house, yeah and no reply button.

  19. joe90 20

    As always, the motive, happen here…nah…never


  20. captain hook 21

    why didnt dunne just tell hendry he had soup on his tie and why didnt he just piss off?
    what sort of whore is he?

  21. lprent 22

    I was just thinking when looking at the Open Parachute rankings about how nice it’d been not having long server outages last month. And then the server system had an outage….

    Drat… And I still haven’t finished having the fallbacks all running – 2 out of 3 bits ain’t good enough.

    At least this support crew were on to it immediately

  22. Rosie 23

    Big ups to the person or persons who have written statements in chalk on the footpaths in the Johnsonville shopping area about why Peter Dunne is an arse. I noticed people stopping and reading and some were even smiling with acknowledgment. Well done! We need more and more awareness raising exercises like this in the sleepy hamlet of Ohariu.

    Nice tidy writing too:-)

  23. chrissy 24

    So, the head of Parliamentary Services has taken the knife in the back. There are no words to describe key. He’s just a pimple on the r sole of life.

  24. wtl 25

    I am curious about the ‘Feeds’ box to the left of the screen. It seems that ‘No Minister’ is a bit of an oddball among the other sites that are there. Is there any particular reason for having this site among the Feeds?

  25. Draco T Bastard 26

    Decades of books have vanished because of US copyright protections

    Copyright advocates have long (and successfully) argued that keeping books copyrighted assures that owners can make a profit off their intellectual property, and that that profit incentive will “assure [the books’] availability and adequate distribution.” The evidence, it appears, says otherwise.

    And another capitalist truism blown out of the water.

  26. Herodotus 27

    Soon there will be minimal ability with rising interest rates for a CGT to achieve any revenue for the govt. My worry is that should Labour win the next election (still possible with Dave) and to extract any revenue from a CGT that the LLG (Lab led govt) will be forced to supporting & implementing additional neo-lib policies in allowing for even greater housing inflation in order to balance the books.

    • Colonial Viper 27.1

      Conformance to the neoliberal monetary system will always have this result. The Government spends its entire effort on trying to “balance the books” (a pointless and unproductive task) instead of getting done what is required.

  27. bad12 28

    Damn it looks like my planned annual holiday to the Yemen will have to be cancelled this year, i might get accused of being an Al Quaeda training recruit,

    If the Slippery little Shyster is going to try and protect Himself by Him and his office not only spying upon the private communications between Members of the Parliament and the Fourth Estate by releasing what to all extents and purposes is classified information about New Zealand residents supposedly training at Al Quaeda camps in the Yemen then the little Shyster should release the names of these supposed trainees as well so that wrong aspersions cannot be directed in any direction,

    The Prime Minister should also tell the Parliament NOW whether either the SIS or GCSB are or ever have been monitoring all the cell phone traffic going into and out of the Parliamentary precinct…

    • karol 28.1

      Yeah. Yemen. So tell me the US and UK don’t have capabilities to spy on (digitally surveil) people in Yemen?

      I am puzzled by Key’s statement:

      Academics believe the terror threat from New Zealanders being trained by al-Qaeda is too minimal to change the country’s spying laws.

      Their comments follow an interview with John Key on More FM today in which the Prime Minister justified changes to the Government Communications Security Bureau (GCSB) law because he said some people in New Zealand were being trained by the terror organisation in places such as Yemen.

      He said there was the “odd person” here who presented a potential threat, either on the international stage or in New Zealand.

      Otago University head of politics Professor Robert Patman said while it could not be ruled out that some members of the public were being trained by al-Qaeda, “it’s difficult to know whether the Prime Minister is accurate in his depiction of New Zealand members of al-Qaeda”.

      “But that actually, is not really the point. The point, I think is that many people are concerned that we’re creating a national security state in order to deal with what is a relatively minor threat.”

      And wouldn’t the SIS be monitoring any alleged terrorist threats from Kiwis in NZ?

      Prof Jackson also said there was no evidence that mass surveillance of the type being put forward in the GCSB bill would stop terrorism.

      “Most terrorist attacks are stopped by community policing and by directed intelligence operations.”

      • bad12 28.1.1

        To correct Professor Jackson most terrorist attacks are stopped by no-one in spite of the billions and billions of dollars worldwide spent upon security and intelligence…

      • Herodotus 28.1.2

        Remember who was the last high profile person to visit the country ?
        “..Holmes said. “But the amazing thing is I cannot recall ever going to a friendlier country than this. Even people who are taken hostage report that they’re treated beautifully by the people who have taken them hostage. So they’re welcoming even when they’re holding you prisoner. Fantastic.” – Who are we to believe ??

  28. Sam 30

    Was Key talking about Tamati Iti and the rest of Tuhoe, I wonder. They were real terrorists weren’t they. Even Auntie Helen’s mob thought so.

    • Murray Olsen 30.1

      Who on Earth is Tamati Iti? Get back to the slime from whence you crawled. The WhaleSpew Army is missing you.

    • weka 30.2

      “They were real terrorists weren’t they”

      Of course they weren’t, what makes you think that?

  29. BLiP 31


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