Just to start the weekend on a positive note (and to get in before Paul! – whose postings I really appreciate.)
As a distant observer of the English political scene, I feel that Jeremy Crobyn has very little to worry about!
There may have been a massive vote of no confidence in him by the PLP, but that just indicates how out of touch with their constituencies those members of parliament are.
Corbyn has the backing of the mass of the Labour Party. He’ll keep his nerve and face the Blairites down. They’ll all, or most of them, be ‘deselected’ at the next election and a stronger, more working class party will emerge.
This is not to suggest that Jeremy won’t have a difficult time. The MSM and the ruling elites will throw the book at him to try to discredit him between now and the next election.
But, the tide is turning and that gives me great hope. Neoliberalism is proving, and will continue to prove (probably with a world-wide depression) that it is a defunct and morally bankrupt economic theory.
Workers of the world, unite – you have nothing to lose but your chains! Now who on earth said that?
Just in case you missed it. The workers have united , but not for your ’cause’ , they united to leave Europe. Corban has outed himself against them, the chances of him leading a mass uprising of ‘bitter and revolutionary’ workers, like some old school leftist wet dream aint going to happen.
Another day in John Key’s neo-liberal nightmare.
We have become a cruel, greedy, uncaring and selfish nation under his wretched leadership.
It was 3 degrees in Auckland last night.
It was -2 degrees in Dunedin last night.
It was 1 degrees in Christchurch last night.
Not very warm to be sleeping in a car.
Not very warm to be sleeping in a container.
Not very warm to be sleeping in a garage.
Not very warm to be sleeping on the street.
The mainstream media may think that Nike’s Wimbledon dress is a news items, but is not.
The majority of the media are doing everything they can to support Paula Bennett and move homelessness off the headlines.
“Try walking in my shoes, it’s not actually that easy.”
This was the challenge TA set to Prime Minister John Key. But really it’s a challenge for us all.
Amongst all the current turmoil in the UK Labour Party, it’s been conventional wisdom that Corbyn’s support amongst Labour members is rock solid.
The big problem for Corbynsceptics, the argument goes, is that he won big among Party members in September and his support has, if anything, increased since then – as a number of YouGov polls have shown. Blairite and Brownite members have left the Party, and have been replaced by Corbynites, in the process shifting the Party Left. So, how can MPs possibly pull off this coup d-etat and survive the collective rage of the Party membership ?
Since the Brexit vote, some analysts (eg Stephen Bush and George Eaton at The New Statesman) have taken a few soundings of members and argue that they have detected some movement away from Corbyn – partly a corollary of a hatchet-job TV documentary, partly due to Corbyn’s alleged lacklustre performance in the EU Referendum campaign.
But their impression was that, although his support was looking just a little more shaky, Corbyn would probably still win any Leadership contest by a fairly clear margin. He won the contest by 40 points last time and was 19 points clear of needing a second round, so his capacity to survive erosion seems strong.
In addition, these analysts felt that those members who had moved away from Corbyn still supported his broad ideological outlook but were just looking for someone who they thought would have more political nous, populism and dynamism with voters.
Things may, however, be a little more precarious than that. A new YouGov poll (carried out entirely after the Brexit Referendum) shows opinion has shifted fairly quickly since the last poll of Party members in May. The Labour Party membership has clearly cooled on Corbyn’s leadership – although, importantly, he still retains an edge.
Last month, Corbyn’s net approval rating among members was + 45 (79% Approve / 27% Disapprove), now it’s just + 3 (51% Approve / 48% Disapprove).
Three quarters of members who voted for Corbyn in the leadership race last year still approve of his performance as leader but he receives very little approval from people who voted for the other 3 candidates (although, as with all the various measures in this poll, an appreciably larger minority of members who favoured the Soft Left candidate, Andy Burnham, are favourable to Corbyn – compared to those who went for the Centrist-Brownite, Yvette Cooper, and the arch-Blairite, Liz Kendall).
The EU Referendum may have played a crucial role in his loss of support.
The poll shows an overwhelming 90% of Labour Party members voted for Remain in the EU Referendum and that’s presumably why his critics in the PLP have focussed on the idea of his “invisibility” and “lacklustre” performance in the EU campaign.
When asked by YouGov whether they thought he did well or badly in the EU campaign, over half of Labour Party members (52%) said badly, with 47% feeling he performed well.
And it’s noticeable that Corbyn’s ratings in this poll are significantly worse among members in the 2 Remain strongholds – London and Scotland – than elsewhere – the South of England (outside London), the Midlands, Wales and the North.
Women members and those members who joined after the 2015 Election are clearly-to-strongly still supportive of Corbyn, Men are evenly-divided but tending slightly towards opposing him, and longer-term members (pre-2015) are clearly negative towards him on most measures.
In May, members were split pretty much 50/50 on the likelihood of Corbyn ever becoming PM. Now, two thirds say Unlikely. Even people who voted for Corbyn are slightly more likely to say he probably won’t become PM in the future (although this may have something to do with recent revelations by Owen Jones that the Corbyn team’s strategy was to nurture a left-leaning MP to take over the leadership in 2018, 2 years before what was expected to be the date of the next election).
In terms of a Corbyn-led Labour Party winning the next Election: May 2016 … Likely 53% / Unlikely 39% June 2016 … Likely 35% / Unlikely 57%
By the same token, though, a clear majority (50/38) also felt that Labour were likely to lose the next Election under any putative New Leader as well.
Should Corbyn continue as leader of the Labour Party May 2016 … Yes 80% / No 15% June 2016 … Yes 51% / No 44%
(small minorities of those who said yes he should continue also believed that he should still stand down before the next election)
Labour Party members, however, were rather less impressed with the way the PLP plotters have gone about their attempted coup.
Were the Shadow Cabinet members right to resign this week and try to force Corbyn to step down ? Yes … 36% No … 60%
An Overwhelming majority of members who voted Corbyn in 2015 said No, an overwhelming majority of people who voted Cooper and Kendall said Yes,
while Soft Left Burnham supporters were much more split with a large-ish 35% minority saying No.
If there were another Labour leadership contest, how likely is it that you would vote Corbyn ? May 2016 … Likely 64% / Not 33% June 2016 … Likely 50% / Not 47%
Again, Women are more strongly for Corbyn than Men, majorities of members in the Remain strongholds of London and Scotland saying Not Likely, majorities in all of the other regions saying Yes Likely.
However, fortunately for those of the Left, things aren’t so close when Party members are specifically asked about one-on-one contests (when its just an anonymous hypothetical opponent, it’s easy for respondents to project their ideal traits onto that candidate, they can’t do that when Corbyn’s put up against a specific, leading political figure with baggage of their own).
In a hypothetical head-to-head match-up between Corbyn and Eagle, Corbyn would win by 10 points, against Tom Watson by 11 points and against Dan Jarvis by 17 points.
Overwhelming majorities of members still see Corbyn as Honest (76%) and Principled (84%), and a slight majority see him as Sharing my (the member’s) political outlook (52%) but he has suffered clear declines in those who seem him variously as Strong, Competent or Likely to lead Labour to victory.
On negative traits, you can see a clear gap between not only members who voted in Corbyn in 2015 and the rest, but also between Blairite Kendall supporters and those preferring Cooper or Burnham. Overwhelming majorities of Kendall supporters see Corbyn as weak, divisive deluded, indecisive and not sharing my political outlook. As you’d expect, only a tiny minority of 2015 Corbyn voters agree, while on most of these negs, large-ish minorities – rather than overwhelming majorities – of former Burnham and Cooper voters agree.
Overall, then, Corbyn still has the edge and his support may be enhanced by non-member sign-ups. YouGov separately polled Labour supporters who haven’t yet joined but may do so if there is a Leadership contest (the Corbyn-supporting Momentum group have been organising among these supporters for the last 10 months). They were more strongly pro-Corbyn than everyone except those members who had voted for him in 2015.
There is also a suggestion that Corbyn still has a good deal of Union support.
Tony Veitch (not the partner-bashing 3rd rate broadcaster) 3.1
Thank you, Swordfish. Perhaps I am too much of an optimist – but I still feel Jeremy will emerge from all this infighting in a stronger position and with a much more left-leaning Labour Party.
good analysis swordfish…a question that isn’t answered (and probably can’t be in advance) is what happens to the Labour Party (UK) IF Corbyn wins the leadership vote as even the recent polls indicate is probable?
“Since the Brexit vote, some analysts (eg Stephen Bush and George Eaton at The New Statesman) have taken a few soundings of members and argue that they have detected some movement away from Corbyn – partly a corollary of a hatchet-job TV documentary, partly due to Corbyn’s alleged lacklustre performance in the EU Referendum campaign.” swordfish
“Overwhelming majorities of members still see Corbyn as Honest (76%) and Principled (84%), and a slight majority see him as Sharing my (the member’s) political outlook (52%) but he has suffered clear declines in those who seem him variously as Strong, Competent or Likely to lead Labour to victory.
On negative traits, you can see a clear gap between not only members who voted in Corbyn in 2015 and the rest, but also between Blairite Kendall supporters and those preferring Cooper or Burnham. Overwhelming majorities of Kendall supporters see Corbyn as weak, divisive deluded, indecisive and not sharing my political outlook. As you’d expect, only a tiny minority of 2015 Corbyn voters agree, while on most of these negs, large-ish minorities – rather than overwhelming majorities – of former Burnham and Cooper voters agree.” swordfish
Jeremy Corbyn has suffered unrelenting negative pressure from the establishment media, and even the Tory Prime Minister David Cameron has called on Corbyn to step down as Labour’s leader. As well as this there is an unprecedented and ongoing effort to topple him from within his own shadow cabinet, allegedly for not fighting the conservative Remain cause hard enough.
But behind the number crunching of how Corbyn’s support bears up (or not), under this establishment pressure there is a bigger story.
After the Referendum: What’s Left?
“There is nothing to celebrate today. The vote by a small (but significant) majority of people in the UK to leave the EU is not a victory for working people, for migrants, for socialists or left activists of any stripe. It could have been: if Labour and the main trade unions had seized the moment and set out a strong, principled, anti-racist and anti-capitalist case for leaving the EU. They didn’t, and the moribund radical left was so fragmented and disorganised, that it’s interventions had little or no bearing on the debate. As a result charlatans such as Nigel Farage are able to portray themselves as champions of “ordinary people” standing up to the “elites and fat cats”.
Race and immigration were certainly important issues in this campaign, and the mainstream narratives (whether for Leave or Remain) were racist and xenophobic. But race wasn’t the only issue, and if we fail to recognise this from the outset then we will be unable to respond meaningfully to the altered political landscape. The distribution of votes indicates that the Leave position was strongest amongst working class communities, in particular white working class communities. It is an indictment of the British left, and a reflection of their historical failure, that such communities now look to UKIP and other such racists for solutions to the marginalisation, exclusion and powerlessness they feel.” Paul O’Connell 24 June, 2016
Click on the link to read the full analysis of how the Centre Left have failed the British People by letting the extreme Right capture the political highground.
“In response to the outcome many people will, understandably, be angry and unsure about what steps to take next. In this context it’s crucial that we do not allow anger or fear cloud our judgement or assessment of the situation. It is not the case that in this referendum good was defeated by evil, love conquered by hate, or the white British working class revealed as inherently reactionary or racist. Millions of people who have, for decades now, suffered under the yoke of neoliberalism and feel (inconsistently) that the political establishment (including the EU) does not represent their interests, have rejected the status quo. And they were right to do so.” Paul O’Connell 24 June, 2016
Amazing how many Labour seats in the North and in the Midlands now have Ukip in second place. Labour still tends to win in its heartlands but often on a plurality (38, 44, 48%) of the vote rather than with the 60, 65, 70% + it used to receive.
While Ukip’s vote seems to derive mainly from former Tories in the South, it looks more like two-thirds former Labour voters / one third former Tories and Lib Dems anywhere north of Leicester.
The EU Referendum stats suggest to me that, overall, Labour-voting working and lower-middle class C2DEs were pretty evenly split on the issue (though probably mildly favouring Brexit in the Midlands and the North, and perhaps fairly strongly so in a handful of East Coast ports). But then you also have to factor in all those former traditional Labour voters who swung to Ukip at the last Election. Add former to current working class Labour voters and you see that a significant majority opted for Brexit.
Significant cleavage opening up (or suddenly being revealed in all its glory) between
(1) affluent middle-class Labour-voting Metros and (2) working and lower middle-class Labour and former Labour voters in the urban “Rust Belt” sprawls and satellite cities surrounding the big Metro Centres.
Current post-Brexit shorthand for this divide is Hampstead Vs Hull.
I think the cleavage has been there for some time, but now people are seriously considering real political options and finding that there are some available…
The gains by the Far Right in formerly labour strongholds reflects the failure of the Centre Left to take on neo-liberalism especially the EU central banking system, and EU imposed “Austerity”.
I know that it is an extreme comparison to make, but all this brings to my mind the failure of the Centre Left in Germany in the ’30s, who by failing to unite with the Left to take on the neo-liberal banksters of their time, left the political field open to the Far Right who deflected people’s anger against the bankers and financiers, into racism, by falsely depicting the financial and economic crisis as being the result of Jewish domination of the banking and financial sector.
You can hear echoes of this false fascist deflection in the UKIP argument that the British people’s problems are all caused by immigrants and refugees flooding into the country.
Even the UKIP messaging is the similar with the notorious poster depicting a crocodile of refugees, reminiscent of Nazi anti Semitic posters, which was greeted with (almost) universal revulsion.
Labour Party gains 60,000 new members in one week following attempted coup against Corbyn
The figure is now even higher than its last peak of 405,000 members last seen under Tony Blair’s leadership
Labour Party gains 60,000 new members in one week following attempted coup against Corbyn
The figure is now even higher than its last peak of 405,000 members last seen under Tony Blair’s leadership.
Another day in John Key’s neo-liberal nightmare.
We have become a cruel, greedy, uncaring and selfish nation under his wretched leadership.
Yet there are people who still care and who are unselfish.
David Tua represents the best of New Zealand.
A government that does not house its citizens adequately represents the worst of New Zealand.
The former heavyweight hardman opened up to the Weekend Herald about his new wife before his Park Up For Homes event – where he will spend tonight sleeping in his car in Onehunga.
The newlyweds say a strong desire to help others and a shared belief in the importance of family drew them together.
“Our love for our local community is top of the list of things that we do, outside of our families,”
The desire to help those in need is behind Tua’s Park Up event. He lived in a car for six weeks in Florida in 2009 when his American promoter ran out of money.
“Living in a car myself is one thing, but all that aside it’s about doing what’s right for the people who are without homes right now.
“It affects all of us. As a staunch community leader, it’s about standing up and doing what you believe is right.”
‘What an official September 11 photographer filmed and why he says it cost him his freedom’
Hours after planes flew into the World Trade Center’s Twin Towers on September 11, 2001, Kurt Sonnenfeld was given unrestricted access to ground zero.
Sonnenfeld was working for the Federal Emergency Management Agency, an organisation tied to the US Department of Homeland Security and charged with co-ordinating first response to disasters.
Armed with camera gear, the 39-year-old was asked to film everything he saw. His documented evidence was supposed to form part of a report about what happened, but he never handed back the footage.
His life began to unravel spectacularly in the following months and years, culminating in the death of his wife.
A call to collapse Auckland’s property market deliberately.
A former Reserve Bank chairman has called for the Government and Auckland Council to enact policies to deliberately “collapse” the city’s house prices by at least 40 per cent and intensify building along Tamaki Dr with Gold Coast-style towers.
Arthur Grimes delivered a hard-hitting speech at an Auckland Conversations event, calling for swift action to resolve the housing crisis, and the city’s eastern suburbs to have high-rise residential blocks, ready for the next generation of Aucklanders.
“I think we should set ourselves a target now of looking for a collapse in house prices of at least 40 per cent in Auckland, OK? And that should be a political approach … central Government and local government politicians should be out there saying, ‘We’re trying to have policies in place that will collapse house prices in Auckland by at least 40 per cent’, because that will only take them back to a level where they were too high already five years ago,” Grimes told the Auckland Conversations forum.
“Realistically we have to do that, right? When I’ve put this to politicians, they’re not too keen on it. How do we then go about trying to achieve it? We need to intensify in Auckland.
“I don’t think there’s any doubt. It doesn’t matter if it’s Freemans Bay, Parnell, Remuera, Kohimaramara, Ellerslie. We certainly need to intensify,” Grimes said.
Aussie banks wouldnt allow it.
They have stopped loaning to overseas buyers.
Now that raises the question some numbers of foreign ownership are immediately available, which is something National always claim to be unable to get.
The Reserve Bank got concessions for not dropping interest rates.
As I see a collapse would be a good thing so long as the government protected those who get caught. That would be a legitimate use of government powers to protect its citizens who foolishly or not succumbed to the pressure to ‘get in before prices rise any further’ For those who will have lost their ‘gain’ remember it is just theoretical and for those who owe more than the property in now worth it is a government action for the good of the country but they must be protected … government taking over the excess proportion of their mortgage perhaps.
It’s nigh on impossible to get prices of anything to go down, they put them up at a drop of the hat too.
I agree with you BM , rents won’t change or if they do not by what they should even if we halve the cost of a property.
The best thing for Auckland is diversifying. We need to reduce the need to live there by making other places attractive with employment and housing.
There is no fix to any issue, they all link, housing links to availability links to affordability which links to employments which links to remuneration ..
Although they think it absurd that the public transport system is so primitive and limited, and that the traffic problems suit a city of 3M people, not 1.5M.
And unless they are multimillionaire immigrants, they can’t afford housing, unless they are earning well into six figures.
We need to reduce the need to live there by making other places attractive with employment and housing.
I agree with you but that’s going to take a huge amount of government investment in education and other infrastructure in those areas up to and including building the factories that make stuff. Of course, they need to fund the R&D for those factories first. They need to be 3D printed factories that can produce a multiple products at the same time (eradicates economies of scale).
Then there’s the resources needed for those factories which means that we need to develop the resources that we have here to keep prices in line. So that’s extraction and processing that needs to be developed. R&D needed so that we don’t have to send people into mines and instead can use remote controlled drones – electric powered ones.
That’s going to require more generation capability so a mass building of wind and solar power. Probably best to R&D those as well.
Yes, we should develop the outer areas but we can’t just leave it to the market which means that the government is going to have to make plans.
I think a combination of both our ideas is the answer BM …. and as Molly pointed out rather than the flash houses she linked to we need small compact houses at a sensible price … $26T rather than $2600T. Need rather than desire.
Sorry Draco but you are simply not up with the play. T is used as a shortened version of thousand. obviously you did not read Molly’s informative posting a couple of days ago.
No it’s not and never has been. For thousand you want ‘k’ or, if you’re a little more old school, you could use ‘grand’ but that ones pretty much gone now.
‘T’ is not used because it already has meaning and that meaning is actually ‘tera’.
Oh you poor old soul, stuck in the past I see 🙂
Language changes with time and I am setting a new trend that T can stand for thousand except for those stuck in their groove 🙂
NYT words smith ” words mean what I mean them to mean”
And words may change over time, Gay is a brilliant example of that, but mathematics symbols don’t. Just think of how confused Blinglish would be if ‘T’ was both 1000 and 1,000, 000, 000, 000.
Exactly! A collapse of the housing market would see the Aussie banks pulling support for the farmers. The Aussie banks are here simply to pull profits from the country – not for any philanthropic reason. Why we need control of our own finances.
If you didn’t watch it you should have, McCullys gone when the auditor general repoirt comes out but the AG is procrastinating on her reportthe Nation exposed more shocks and a government scandal of sickening proportions the public should rightly be outraged at if it ever gets more then ignored
He’s fkd. McCully that is. It’s just a matter of when.
The other day McCulley could not answer questions in QT regarding an employee of his, allegedly double dipping during the tenure of McCulley at as Min World Cup. Why not? Because he was no longer Minister of World Cup.
Nor is Brownlie. No longer Min of Earthquake repairs so cannot answer for last years problems.
So when McCulley steps aside he is no longer held accountable.
But according to Mallard, the PM could be. Mmmm!
Known Chechen terrorist was given refugee status in Austria and protected from extradition to Russia. Now suspected as leader of Ataturk Airport attack
It has been also revealed that Chataev was long wanted by the Russian authorities for terrorism-related offenses but he fled to Europe, where he was granted asylum, and successfully managed to escape extradition to Russia. The alleged mastermind joined Islamist secessionist militants that fought against Russia in the Second Chechen War between 1999 and 2000, where he lost an arm. Later, he was considered to be a representative of Dokka Umarov, once a “terrorist ?1” in Russia, in the Western Europe.
The attack coordinator was on a wanted list in Russia since 2003 for sponsoring terrorism, recruiting extremists and membership in a terrorist group, Russian media report. However, in the same year, he received asylum in Austria. Chataev reportedly claimed that he lost his arm as he was severely tortured in Russian prison adding that he is being persecuted by Russian authorities.
+100…obviously hypocrisy and double standards prevail in the EU….pretty shocking… so much for EU security and surveillance and protection of the public from terrorism
…and yet they still want Julian Assange extradited when it is clearly State trumped up charges and the women ‘victims’ have denied the charges laid against him
…Julian Assange is a threat because he exposes the truth about USA and its friends
…a terrorist on the loose is not regarded as a threat because he is perceived as being anti- Russia
“Trump picked the town of Monessen in western Pennsylvania on Tuesday and a backdrop of rubbish to declare “American economic independence” – six days before the July 4th Independence Day holiday – and to trash what he called “failed” trade policies. The presumptive Republican presidential nominee wants international trade deals such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership that President Barack Obama wants to sign with 11 Pacific Rim countries and the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement with Canada and Mexico renegotiated or ripped up.”
“Trump sharpened his rhetoric in a later speech in Ohio, saying that the Pacific trade deal was being “pushed by special interests who want to rape our country”, feeding supporters angry at the establishment.”
Article seems to imply that they are government funded, and that was what the guys in the white van who were putting them up said.
Be interesting to see the costs of the program, and what it actually does. At a rough guess I’d say the boxes would be around $1000 each by the time they were up and working, and there’s a lot of them. Reporting could be suspect too, bluetooth from the box to car????
The crackdown on government scientists in Canada began in 2006, after Stephen Harper of the Conservative Party was elected prime minister. During the nine-year Harper administration, the government placed a priority on boosting the economy, in part by stimulating development and increasing the extraction of resources, such as petroleum from the oil sands in Alberta. To speed projects along, the administration eased environmental regulations. And when journalists sought out government scientists to ask about the impacts of such changes, or anything to do with environmental or climate science, they ran into roadblocks.
Which is absolutely bloody atrocious and shouldn’t be allowed. Thankfully, that’s now changing under Canada’s new government:
Six months later, the government is loosening its grip on communications but the shift at some agencies has not been as swift and comprehensive as many had hoped. And with the newfound freedom to speak, the full impact of the former restrictions is finally becoming clear. Canadian scientists and government representatives are opening up about what it was like to work under the former policy and the kind of consequences it had. Some of the officials who imposed the rules are talking about how the restrictions affected the morale and careers of researchers. Their stories hint at how governments control communications in even more politically repressive countries such as China, and suggest what might happen in Canada if the political winds reverse.
Now NZ needs a government that will open up our researchers as well, one that will protect them from those that will attack them for what the research says.
a few points of commonality…9 years, neolibs and Crosby Textor
“Gretchen Goldman, the lead analyst with the UCS on this issue, says that one thing Canada might learn from the US experience is that it takes time for a culture of transparency to take root. Even after a more open administration assumes power, many staff members remain from the previous government, and have been trained in the more-restrictive policies. “Practices often lag the policy,” she says.
It could take years for Canadian scientists to recover from heavy funding cuts, low morale and tight control over communication. Looking back over what happened, Macdonald remembers something his grandmother once told him. “It takes ten years to make a good garden, but you can wreck it in six months,” he says. “It’s like that with science.”
I wonder what horrible skeletons the Nats are hiding in the closet. Judging by the stuff that DID get out (dirty politics, Oravida, Saudi sheep, etc), whatever else they have covered up must be pretty damn nasty
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Hi,Today’s Webworm features a new short film from documentary maker Giorgio Angelini. It’s about Luigi Mangione — but it’s also, really, about everything in America right now.Bear with me.Shortly after I sent out my last missive from the fires on Wednesday, one broke out a little too close to home ...
So soon just after you've goneMy senses sharpenBut it always takes so damn longBefore I feel how much my eyes have darkenedFear hangs in a plane of gun smokeDrifting in our roomSo easy to disturb, with a thought, with a whisperWith a careless memorySongwriters: Andy Taylor / John Taylor / ...
Can we trust the Trump cabinet to act in the public interest?Nine of Trump’s closest advisers are billionaires. Their total net worth is in excess of $US375b (providing there is not a share-market crash). In contrast, the total net worth of Trump’s first Cabinet was about $6b. (Joe Biden’s Cabinet ...
Welcome back to our weekly roundup. We hope you had a good break (if you had one). Here’s a few of the stories that caught our attention over the last few weeks. This holiday period on Greater Auckland Since our last roundup we’ve: Taken a look back at ...
Sometimes I feel like I don't have a partnerSometimes I feel like my only friendIs the city I live in, The City of AngelsLonely as I am together we crySong: Anthony Kiedis, Chad Smith, Flea, John Frusciante.A home is engulfed in flames during the Eaton fire in the Altadena area. ...
Open access notablesLarge emissions of CO2 and CH4 due to active-layer warming in Arctic tundra, Torn et al., Nature Communications:Climate warming may accelerate decomposition of Arctic soil carbon, but few controlled experiments have manipulated the entire active layer. To determine surface-atmosphere fluxes of carbon dioxide and ...
It's election year for Wellington City Council and for the Regional Council. What have the progressive councillors achieved over the last couple of years. What were the blocks and failures? What's with the targeting of the mayor and city council by the Post and by central government? Why does the ...
Over the holidays, there was a rising tide of calls for people to submit on National's repulsive, white supremacist Principles of the Treaty of Waitangi Bill, along with a wave of advice and examples of what to say. And it looks like people rose to the occasion, with over 300,000 ...
The lie is my expenseThe scope of my desireThe Party blessed me with its futureAnd I protect it with fireI am the Nina The Pinta The Santa MariaThe noose and the rapistAnd the fields overseerThe agents of orangeThe priests of HiroshimaThe cost of my desire…Sleep now in the fireSongwriters: Brad ...
This is a re-post from the Climate BrinkGlobal surface temperatures have risen around 1.3C since the preindustrial (1850-1900) period as a result of human activity.1 However, this aggregate number masks a lot of underlying factors that contribute to global surface temperature changes over time.These include CO2, which is the primary ...
There are times when movement around us seems to slow down. And the faster things get, the slower it all appears.And so it is with the whirlwind of early year political activity.They are harbingers for what is to come:Video: Wayne Wright Jnr, funder of Sean Plunket, talk growing power and ...
Hi,Right now the power is out, so I’m just relying on the laptop battery and tethering to my phone’s 5G which is dropping in and out. We’ll see how we go.First up — I’m fine. I can’t see any flames out the window. I live in the greater Hollywood area ...
2024 was a tough year for working Kiwis. But together we’ve been able to fight back for a just and fair New Zealand and in 2025 we need to keep standing up for what’s right and having our voices heard. That starts with our Mood of the Workforce Survey. It’s your ...
Time is never time at allYou can never ever leaveWithout leaving a piece of youthAnd our lives are forever changedWe will never be the sameThe more you change, the less you feelSongwriter: William Patrick Corgan.Babinden - Baba’s DayToday, January 8th, 2025, is Babinden, “The Day of the baba” or “The ...
..I/We wish to make the following comments:I oppose the Treaty Principles Bill."5. Act binds the CrownThis Act binds the Crown."How does this Act "bind the Crown" when Te Tiriti o Waitangi, which the Act refers to, has been violated by the Crown on numerous occassions, resulting in massive loss of ...
Everything is good and brownI'm here againWith a sunshine smile upon my faceMy friends are close at handAnd all my inhibitions have disappeared without a traceI'm glad, oh, that I found oohSomebody who I can rely onSongwriter: Jay KayGood morning, all you lovely people. Today, I’ve got nothing except a ...
Welcome to 2025. After wrapping up 2024, here’s a look at some of the things we can expect to see this year along with a few predictions. Council and Elections Elections One of the biggest things this year will be local body elections in October. Will Mayor Wayne Brown ...
Canadians can take a while to get angry – but when they finally do, watch out. Canada has been falling out of love with Justin Trudeau for years, and his exit has to be the least surprising news event of the New Year. On recent polling, Trudeau’s Liberal party has ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections Much like 2023, many climate and energy records were broken in 2024. It was Earth’s hottest year on record by a wide margin, breaking the previous record that was set just last year by an even larger margin. Human-caused climate-warming pollution and ...
Submissions on National's racist, white supremacist Principles of the Treaty of Waitangi Bill are due tomorrow! So today, after a good long holiday from all that bullshit, I finally got my shit together to submit on it. As I noted here, people should write their own submissions in their own ...
Ooh, baby (ooh, baby)It's making me crazy (it's making me crazy)Every time I look around (look around)Every time I look around (every time I look around)Every time I look aroundIt's in my faceSongwriters: Alan Leo Jansson / Paul Lawrence L. Fuemana.Today, I’ll be talking about rich, middle-aged men who’ve made ...
A listing of 26 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, December 29, 2024 thru Sat, January 4, 2025. This week's roundup is again published soleley by category. We are still interested in feedback to hone the categorization, so if ...
Hi,The thing that stood out at me while shopping for Christmas presents in New Zealand was how hard it was to avoid Zuru products. Toy manufacturer Zuru is a bit like Netflix, in that it has so much data on what people want they can flood the market with so ...
And when a child is born into this worldIt has no conceptOf the tone of skin it's living inAnd there's a million voicesAnd there's a million voicesTo tell you what you should be thinkingSong by Neneh Cherry and Youssou N'Dour.The moment you see that face, you can hear her voice; ...
While we may not always have quality political leadership, a couple of recently published autobiographies indicate sometimes we strike it lucky. When ranking our prime ministers, retired professor of history Erik Olssen commented that ‘neither Holland nor Nash was especially effective as prime minister – even his private secretary thought ...
Baby, be the class clownI'll be the beauty queen in tearsIt's a new art form, showin' people how little we care (yeah)We're so happy, even when we're smilin' out of fearLet's go down to the tennis court and talk it up like, yeah (yeah)Songwriters: Joel Little / Ella Yelich O ...
Open access notables Why Misinformation Must Not Be Ignored, Ecker et al., American Psychologist:Recent academic debate has seen the emergence of the claim that misinformation is not a significant societal problem. We argue that the arguments used to support this minimizing position are flawed, particularly if interpreted (e.g., by policymakers or the public) as suggesting ...
What I’ve Been Doing: I buried a close family member.What I’ve Been Watching: Andor, Jack Reacher, Xmas movies.What I’ve Been Reflecting On: The Usefulness of Writing and the Worthiness of Doing So — especially as things become more transparent on their own.I also hate competing on any day, and if ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by John Wihbey. A version of this article first appeared on Yale Climate Connections on Nov. 11, 2008. (Image credits: The White House, Jonathan Cutrer / CC BY 2.0; President Jimmy Carter, Trikosko/Library of Congress; Solar dedication, Bill Fitz-Patrick / Jimmy Carter Library; Solar ...
Morena folks,We’re having a good break, recharging the batteries. Hope you’re enjoying the holiday period. I’m not feeling terribly inspired by much at the moment, I’m afraid—not from a writing point of view, anyway.So, today, we’re travelling back in time. You’ll have to imagine the wavy lines and sci-fi sound ...
Completed reads for 2024: Oration on the Dignity of Man, by Giovanni Pico della Mirandola A Platonic Discourse Upon Love, by Giovanni Pico della Mirandola Of Being and Unity, by Giovanni Pico della Mirandola The Life of Pico della Mirandola, by Giovanni Francesco Pico Three Letters Written by Pico ...
Welcome to 2025, Aotearoa. Well… what can one really say? 2024 was a story of a bad beginning, an infernal middle and an indescribably farcical end. But to chart a course for a real future, it does pay to know where we’ve been… so we know where we need ...
Welcome to the official half-way point of the 2020s. Anyway, as per my New Years tradition, here’s where A Phuulish Fellow’s blog traffic came from in 2024: United States United Kingdom New Zealand Canada Sweden Australia Germany Spain Brazil Finland The top four are the same as 2023, ...
Completed reads for December: Be A Wolf!, by Brian Strickland The Magic Flute [libretto], by Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart and Emanuel Schikaneder The Invisible Eye, by Erckmann-Chatrian The Owl’s Ear, by Erckmann-Chatrian The Waters of Death, by Erckmann-Chatrian The Spider, by Hanns Heinz Ewers Who Knows?, by Guy de Maupassant ...
Well, it’s the last day of the year, so it’s time for a quick wrap-up of the most important things that happened in 2024 for urbanism and transport in our city. A huge thank you to everyone who has visited the blog and supported us in our mission to make ...
Leave your office, run past your funeralLeave your home, car, leave your pulpitJoin us in the streets where weJoin us in the streets where weDon't belong, don't belongHere under the starsThrowing light…Song: Jeffery BuckleyToday, I’ll discuss the standout politicians of the last 12 months. Each party will receive three awards, ...
Hi,A lot’s happened this year in the world of Webworm, and as 2024 comes to an end I thought I’d look back at a few of the things that popped. Maybe you missed them, or you might want to revisit some of these essay and podcast episodes over your break ...
Hi,I wanted to share this piece by film editor Dan Kircher about what cinema has been up to in 2024.Dan edited my documentary Mister Organ, as well as this year’s excellent crowd-pleasing Bookworm.Dan adores movies. He gets the language of cinema, he knows what he loves, and writes accordingly. And ...
Without delving into personal details but in order to give readers a sense of the year that was, I thought I would offer the study in contrasts that are Xmas 2023 and Xmas 2024: Xmas 2023 in Starship Children’s Hospital (after third of four surgeries). Even opening presents was an ...
Heavy disclaimer: Alpha/beta/omega dynamics is a popular trope that’s used in a wide range of stories and my thoughts on it do not apply to all cases. I’m most familiar with it through the lens of male-focused fanfic, typically m/m but sometimes also featuring m/f and that’s the situation I’m ...
Hi,Webworm has been pretty heavy this year — mainly because the world is pretty heavy. But as we sprint (or limp, you choose) through the final days of 2024, I wanted to keep Webworm a little lighter.So today I wanted to look at one of the biggest and weirdest elements ...
A listing of 23 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, December 22, 2024 thru Sat, December 28, 2024. This week's roundup is the second one published soleley by category. We are still interested in feedback to hone the categorization, ...
We’ll have a climate change ChristmasFrom now until foreverWarming our hearts and mindsAnd planet all togetherSpirits high and oceans higherChestnuts roast on wildfiresIf coal is on your wishlistMerry Climate Change ChristmasSong by Ian McConnellReindeer emissions are not something I’d thought about in terms of climate change. I guess some significant ...
KP continues to putt-putt along as a tiny niche blog that offers a NZ perspective on international affairs with a few observations about NZ domestic politics thrown in. In 2024 there was also some personal posts given that my son was in the last four months of a nine month ...
I can see very wellThere's a boat on the reef with a broken backAnd I can see it very wellThere's a joke and I know it very wellIt's one of those that I told you long agoTake my word I'm a madman, don't you knowSongwriters: Bernie Taupin / Elton JohnIt ...
.Acknowledgement: Tim PrebbleThanks for reading Frankly Speaking ! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work..With each passing day of bad headlines, squandering tax revenue to enrich the rich, deep cuts to our social services and a government struggling to keep the lipstick on its neo-liberal pig ...
This is from the 36th Parallel social media account (as brief food for thought). We know that Trump is ahistorical at best but he seems to think that he is Teddy Roosevelt and can use the threat of invoking the Monroe Doctrine and “Big Stick” gunboat diplomacy against Panama and ...
Don't you cry tonightI still love you, babyAnd don't you cry tonightDon't you cry tonightThere's a heaven above you, babyAnd don't you cry tonightSong: Axl Rose and Izzy Stradlin“Time is an illusion. Lunchtime doubly so”, said possibly the greatest philosopher ever to walk this earth, Douglas Adams.We have entered the ...
The Green Party welcomes the extension of the deadline for Treaty Principles Bill submissions but continues to call on the Government to abandon the Bill. ...
Complaints about disruptive behaviour now handled in around 13 days (down from around 60 days a year ago) 553 Section 55A notices issued by Kāinga Ora since July 2024, up from 41 issued during the same period in the previous year. Of that 553, first notices made up around 83 ...
The time it takes to process building determinations has improved significantly over the last year which means fewer delays in homes being built, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “New Zealand has a persistent shortage of houses. Making it easier and quicker for new homes to be built will ...
Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden is pleased to announce the annual list of New Zealand’s most popular baby names for 2024. “For the second consecutive year, Noah has claimed the top spot for boys with 250 babies sharing the name, while Isla has returned to the most popular ...
Work is set to get underway on a new bus station at Westgate this week. A contract has been awarded to HEB Construction to start a package of enabling works to get the site ready in advance of main construction beginning in mid-2025, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.“A new Westgate ...
Minister for Children and for Prevention of Family and Sexual Violence Karen Chhour is encouraging people to use the resources available to them to get help, and to report instances of family and sexual violence amongst their friends, families, and loved ones who are in need. “The death of a ...
Uia te pō, rangahaua te pō, whakamāramatia mai he aha tō tango, he aha tō kāwhaki? Whitirere ki te ao, tirotiro kau au, kei hea taku rātā whakamarumaru i te au o te pakanga mo te mana motuhake? Au te pō, ngū te pō, ue hā! E te kahurangi māreikura, ...
Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says people with diabetes and other painful conditions will benefit from a significant new qualification to boost training in foot care. “It sounds simple, but quality and regular foot and nail care is vital in preventing potentially serious complications from diabetes, like blisters or sores, which can take a long time to heal ...
Associate Health Minister with responsibility for Pharmac David Seymour is pleased to see Pharmac continue to increase availability of medicines for Kiwis with the government’s largest ever investment in Pharmac. “Pharmac operates independently, but it must work within the budget constraints set by the government,” says Mr Seymour. “When this government assumed ...
Mā mua ka kite a muri, mā muri ka ora e mua - Those who lead give sight to those who follow, those who follow give life to those who lead. Māori recipients in the New Year 2025 Honours list show comprehensive dedication to improving communities across the motu that ...
Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden is wishing all New Zealanders a great holiday season as Kiwis prepare for gatherings with friends and families to see in the New Year. It is a great time of year to remind everyone to stay fire safe over the summer. “I know ...
From 1 January 2025, first-time tertiary learners will have access to a new Fees Free entitlement of up to $12,000 for their final year of provider-based study or final two years of work-based learning, Tertiary Education and Skills Minister Penny Simmonds says. “Targeting funding to the final year of study ...
“As we head into one of the busiest times of the year for Police, and family violence and sexual violence response services, it’s a good time to remind everyone what to do if they experience violence or are worried about others,” Minister for the Prevention of Family and Sexual Violence ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sarah Whitcombe-Dobbs, Senior Lecturer in Child and Family Psychology, University of Canterbury After last year’s budget cuts to social services, including a NZ$14 million cut to early home visits, social services providers in New Zealand raised concerns about what the move would ...
COMMENTARY:By Maire Leadbeater Aotearoa New Zealand’s coalition government has introduced a bill to criminalise “improper conduct for or on behalf of a foreign power” or foreign interference that echoes earlier Cold War times, and could capture critics of New Zealand’s foreign and defence policy, especially if they liaise with ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kristine Crous, Senior Lecturer, School of Science and Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University Researchers study leaves in the Daintree rainforest in North Queensland, Australia, using a canopy crane. Alexander Cheesman On the east coast of Australia, in tropical ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Louise Baur, Professor, Discipline of Child and Adolescent Health, University of Sydney World Obesity Federation Obesity is linked to many common diseases, such as type 2 diabetes, heart disease, fatty liver disease and knee osteoarthritis. Obesity is currently defined using ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kelvin (Shiu Fung) Wong, Senior Lecturer in Clinical Psychology, Swinburne University of Technology Sad, anxious or lacking in motivation? Chances are you have just returned to work after a summer break. January is the month when people are most likely to quit ...
Is warning people about police on Google Maps aiding your fellow citizens, or abetting dangerous drivers? Anna Rawhiti-Connell debates Anna Rawhiti-Connell.For over a decade, the navigation app Waze has used a crowdsourcing feature that allows you to report incidents on your route. With your phone plugged into Apple CarPlay ...
With dozens of Māori seats up for referendum, this year’s local elections will reveal where Aotearoa truly stands on representation.Last year, the government introduced legislation requiring all local authorities that had established Māori wards and constituencies to hold a referendum on these seats during this year’s local government elections. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paul Williams, Associate Professor, Griffith University, Griffith University Queensland’s Bruce Highway is a bit like a 1980s family sedan: dated, worn in places, and often more than a little dangerous. But it’s also a necessary part of life for people just trying ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Julie Collins, Research Fellow and Curator, Architecture Museum, University of South Australia South Australian Home Builders’ Club members at work.SAHBC collection S284, Architecture Museum, University of South Australia Australians are no strangers to housing crises. Some will even remember the crisis ...
A new report from Australian charity Action Aid reveals how the New Zealand banks’ Australian owners manage to sign up to international climate goals while continuing to fund fossil fuel companies. Most people in New Zealand bank with four large banks, all of which are owned by overseas companies. BNZ’s ...
The only way forward is for workers to build a new party that fights for the socialist reorganisation of society, on the basis of human need, not private profit. This is the program of the Socialist Equality Group in New Zealand and the International ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Milad Haghani, Senior Lecturer of Urban Risk & Resilience, UNSW Sydney MIA Studio We are surrounded by random events every day. Will the stock market rise or fall tomorrow? Will the next penalty kick in a soccer match go left or ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Athena Lee, Lecturer and Researcher, Centre for Indigenous Australian Education and Research, Edith Cowan University When we think of writing systems we likely think of an Alphabetic writing system, where each symbol (letter) in the alphabet represents a basic sound unit, such ...
David Seymour has welcomed the huge amount of public interest in his controversial proposed law, explains The Bulletin’s Stewart Sowman-Lund. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here. ...
Parliament's justice committee will find out tomorrow how many submissions were made on the Treaty Principles Bill after the deadline was extended by nearly a week after website issues. ...
A parent shares their experience and fears as public submissions are sought on the use of puberty blockers for gender-affirming care. Both the author and daughter’s names have been changed to protect their privacy.When my daughter Marie was born, everyone, including me, thought she was a boy. She started ...
Thrice thwarted previously, the Act Party’s Regulatory Standards Bill is set to pass in 2025, ushering in a new – and potentially controversial – era for government rule-making. Here’s everything you need to know. Before public submissions for the Treaty principles bill came to a close on Tuesday, a separate ...
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Summer reissue: Adopted in 1834 the first national flag of New Zealand (Te Kara o Te Whakaminenga o Ngā Hapū o Nu Tīreni) symbolises more than just necessity – it represents Māori autonomy and a legacy of self-determination that continues today.The Spinoff needs to double the number of paying ...
Summer reissue: Shortsightedness in kids is skyrocketing overseas. Is New Zealand next? The Spinoff needs to double the number of paying members we have to continue telling these kinds of stories. Please read our open letter and sign up to be a member today.“Hey bro, are you blind now?” ...
While mediator Qatar says a Gaza ceasefire deal is at the closest point it has been in the past few months — adding that many of the obstacles in the negotiations have been ironed out — a special report for Drop Site News reveals the escalation in attacks on Palestinians ...
In our latest in-depth podcast investigation, Fractured, Melanie Reid and her team delve deep into a complex case involving a controversial medical diagnosis and its fallout on a young family. While Fractured is a forensic examination of this case here in New Zealand, the diagnosis that started it all is ...
While last year was termed the ‘year of elections’, 2025 will see some highly significant elections set to take place throughout the world that could have significant impacts on countries, their regions, and the wider global picture.AfricaThe presidential elections in Cameroon this October see the world’s oldest head of state ...
ANALYSIS:By Ali Mirin Indonesia officially joined the BRICS — Brazil, Russia, China and South Africa — consortium last week marking a significant milestone in its foreign relations. In a statement released a day later on January 7, the Indonesian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that this membership reflected Indonesia’s ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Milad Haghani, Senior Lecturer of Urban Risk & Resilience, UNSW Sydney Imagine a gathering so large it dwarfs any concert, festival, or sporting event you’ve ever seen. In the Kumbh Mela, a religious festival held in India, millions of Hindu pilgrims come ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Hawkins, Senior Lecturer, Canberra School of Politics, Economics and Society, University of Canberra Motortion Films/Shutterstock You may have seen stories the Australian dollar has “plummeted”. Sounds bad. But what does it mean and should you be worried? The most-commonly quoted ...
Summer reissue: Lange and Muldoon clash, two days after the election. Our live updates editor is on the case. The Spinoff needs to double the number of paying members we have to continue telling these kinds of stories. Please read our open letter and sign up to be a member ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Gina Perry, Science historian with a specific interest in the history of social psychology., The University of Melbourne ‘Guards’ with a blindfolded ‘prisoner’.PrisonExp.org A new translation of a 2018 book by French science historian Thibault Le Texier challenges the claims of ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Susan Jordan, Professor of Epidemiology, The University of Queensland Peakstock/Shutterstock Many women worry hormonal contraceptives have dangerous side-effects including increased cancer risk. But this perception is often out of proportion with the actual risks. So, what does the research actually say ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kiley Seymour, Associate Professor of Neuroscience and Behaviour, University of Technology Sydney Vector Tradition/Shutterstock From self-service checkouts to public streets to stadiums – surveillance technology is everywhere. This pervasive monitoring is often justified in the name of safety and security. ...
South Islanders Alex Casey and Tara Ward reflect on their so-called summer break. Alex Casey: Welcome back to work Tara, how was your summer? Tara Ward: I’m thrilled to be here and equally as happy to have experienced my first New Zealand winter Christmas, just as Santa always intended. Over ...
Summer reissue: Five years ago, we voted against legalising cannabis. But what if the referendum had gone the other way? The Spinoff needs to double the number of paying members we have to continue telling these kinds of stories. Please read our open letter and sign up to be a ...
As part of our series exploring how New Zealanders live and our relationship with money, a software developer shares his approach to spending and saving. Want to be part of The Cost of Being? Fill out the questionnaire here.Gender: Male. Age: 34. Ethnicity: NZ European. Role: Software developer. Salary/income/assets: Salary ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Megan Cassidy-Welch, Professor of History and Dean of Research Strategy, University of Divinity Lieven van Lathem (Flemish, about 1430–93) and David Aubert (Flemish, active 1453–79), Gracienne Taking Leave of Her Father the Sultan, 1464 The J. Paul Getty Museum Travellers have ...
Just to start the weekend on a positive note (and to get in before Paul! – whose postings I really appreciate.)
As a distant observer of the English political scene, I feel that Jeremy Crobyn has very little to worry about!
There may have been a massive vote of no confidence in him by the PLP, but that just indicates how out of touch with their constituencies those members of parliament are.
Corbyn has the backing of the mass of the Labour Party. He’ll keep his nerve and face the Blairites down. They’ll all, or most of them, be ‘deselected’ at the next election and a stronger, more working class party will emerge.
This is not to suggest that Jeremy won’t have a difficult time. The MSM and the ruling elites will throw the book at him to try to discredit him between now and the next election.
But, the tide is turning and that gives me great hope. Neoliberalism is proving, and will continue to prove (probably with a world-wide depression) that it is a defunct and morally bankrupt economic theory.
Workers of the world, unite – you have nothing to lose but your chains! Now who on earth said that?
Hate to do this to you, Tony. But … not quite so fast … new YouGov Poll of Party members just released
(see my comment below)
I would also like to hope things will turn out as Tony hopes BUT I am scarred from observing Syriza’s Tsipras-Varoufakis experience.
Just in case you missed it. The workers have united , but not for your ’cause’ , they united to leave Europe. Corban has outed himself against them, the chances of him leading a mass uprising of ‘bitter and revolutionary’ workers, like some old school leftist wet dream aint going to happen.
Another day in John Key’s neo-liberal nightmare.
We have become a cruel, greedy, uncaring and selfish nation under his wretched leadership.
It was 3 degrees in Auckland last night.
It was -2 degrees in Dunedin last night.
It was 1 degrees in Christchurch last night.
Not very warm to be sleeping in a car.
Not very warm to be sleeping in a container.
Not very warm to be sleeping in a garage.
Not very warm to be sleeping on the street.
The mainstream media may think that Nike’s Wimbledon dress is a news items, but is not.
The majority of the media are doing everything they can to support Paula Bennett and move homelessness off the headlines.
“Try walking in my shoes, it’s not actually that easy.”
This was the challenge TA set to Prime Minister John Key. But really it’s a challenge for us all.
Amongst all the current turmoil in the UK Labour Party, it’s been conventional wisdom that Corbyn’s support amongst Labour members is rock solid.
The big problem for Corbynsceptics, the argument goes, is that he won big among Party members in September and his support has, if anything, increased since then – as a number of YouGov polls have shown. Blairite and Brownite members have left the Party, and have been replaced by Corbynites, in the process shifting the Party Left. So, how can MPs possibly pull off this coup d-etat and survive the collective rage of the Party membership ?
Since the Brexit vote, some analysts (eg Stephen Bush and George Eaton at The New Statesman) have taken a few soundings of members and argue that they have detected some movement away from Corbyn – partly a corollary of a hatchet-job TV documentary, partly due to Corbyn’s alleged lacklustre performance in the EU Referendum campaign.
But their impression was that, although his support was looking just a little more shaky, Corbyn would probably still win any Leadership contest by a fairly clear margin. He won the contest by 40 points last time and was 19 points clear of needing a second round, so his capacity to survive erosion seems strong.
In addition, these analysts felt that those members who had moved away from Corbyn still supported his broad ideological outlook but were just looking for someone who they thought would have more political nous, populism and dynamism with voters.
Things may, however, be a little more precarious than that. A new YouGov poll (carried out entirely after the Brexit Referendum) shows opinion has shifted fairly quickly since the last poll of Party members in May. The Labour Party membership has clearly cooled on Corbyn’s leadership – although, importantly, he still retains an edge.
Last month, Corbyn’s net approval rating among members was + 45 (79% Approve / 27% Disapprove), now it’s just + 3 (51% Approve / 48% Disapprove).
Three quarters of members who voted for Corbyn in the leadership race last year still approve of his performance as leader but he receives very little approval from people who voted for the other 3 candidates (although, as with all the various measures in this poll, an appreciably larger minority of members who favoured the Soft Left candidate, Andy Burnham, are favourable to Corbyn – compared to those who went for the Centrist-Brownite, Yvette Cooper, and the arch-Blairite, Liz Kendall).
The EU Referendum may have played a crucial role in his loss of support.
The poll shows an overwhelming 90% of Labour Party members voted for Remain in the EU Referendum and that’s presumably why his critics in the PLP have focussed on the idea of his “invisibility” and “lacklustre” performance in the EU campaign.
When asked by YouGov whether they thought he did well or badly in the EU campaign, over half of Labour Party members (52%) said badly, with 47% feeling he performed well.
And it’s noticeable that Corbyn’s ratings in this poll are significantly worse among members in the 2 Remain strongholds – London and Scotland – than elsewhere – the South of England (outside London), the Midlands, Wales and the North.
Women members and those members who joined after the 2015 Election are clearly-to-strongly still supportive of Corbyn, Men are evenly-divided but tending slightly towards opposing him, and longer-term members (pre-2015) are clearly negative towards him on most measures.
In May, members were split pretty much 50/50 on the likelihood of Corbyn ever becoming PM. Now, two thirds say Unlikely. Even people who voted for Corbyn are slightly more likely to say he probably won’t become PM in the future (although this may have something to do with recent revelations by Owen Jones that the Corbyn team’s strategy was to nurture a left-leaning MP to take over the leadership in 2018, 2 years before what was expected to be the date of the next election).
In terms of a Corbyn-led Labour Party winning the next Election:
May 2016 … Likely 53% / Unlikely 39%
June 2016 … Likely 35% / Unlikely 57%
By the same token, though, a clear majority (50/38) also felt that Labour were likely to lose the next Election under any putative New Leader as well.
Should Corbyn continue as leader of the Labour Party
May 2016 … Yes 80% / No 15%
June 2016 … Yes 51% / No 44%
(small minorities of those who said yes he should continue also believed that he should still stand down before the next election)
Labour Party members, however, were rather less impressed with the way the PLP plotters have gone about their attempted coup.
Were the Shadow Cabinet members right to resign this week and try to force Corbyn to step down ?
Yes … 36%
No … 60%
An Overwhelming majority of members who voted Corbyn in 2015 said No, an overwhelming majority of people who voted Cooper and Kendall said Yes,
while Soft Left Burnham supporters were much more split with a large-ish 35% minority saying No.
If there were another Labour leadership contest, how likely is it that you would vote Corbyn ?
May 2016 … Likely 64% / Not 33%
June 2016 … Likely 50% / Not 47%
Again, Women are more strongly for Corbyn than Men, majorities of members in the Remain strongholds of London and Scotland saying Not Likely, majorities in all of the other regions saying Yes Likely.
However, fortunately for those of the Left, things aren’t so close when Party members are specifically asked about one-on-one contests (when its just an anonymous hypothetical opponent, it’s easy for respondents to project their ideal traits onto that candidate, they can’t do that when Corbyn’s put up against a specific, leading political figure with baggage of their own).
In a hypothetical head-to-head match-up between Corbyn and Eagle, Corbyn would win by 10 points, against Tom Watson by 11 points and against Dan Jarvis by 17 points.
Overwhelming majorities of members still see Corbyn as Honest (76%) and Principled (84%), and a slight majority see him as Sharing my (the member’s) political outlook (52%) but he has suffered clear declines in those who seem him variously as Strong, Competent or Likely to lead Labour to victory.
On negative traits, you can see a clear gap between not only members who voted in Corbyn in 2015 and the rest, but also between Blairite Kendall supporters and those preferring Cooper or Burnham. Overwhelming majorities of Kendall supporters see Corbyn as weak, divisive deluded, indecisive and not sharing my political outlook. As you’d expect, only a tiny minority of 2015 Corbyn voters agree, while on most of these negs, large-ish minorities – rather than overwhelming majorities – of former Burnham and Cooper voters agree.
Overall, then, Corbyn still has the edge and his support may be enhanced by non-member sign-ups. YouGov separately polled Labour supporters who haven’t yet joined but may do so if there is a Leadership contest (the Corbyn-supporting Momentum group have been organising among these supporters for the last 10 months). They were more strongly pro-Corbyn than everyone except those members who had voted for him in 2015.
There is also a suggestion that Corbyn still has a good deal of Union support.
Thank you, Swordfish. Perhaps I am too much of an optimist – but I still feel Jeremy will emerge from all this infighting in a stronger position and with a much more left-leaning Labour Party.
Time will tell!
Indeed “Time will tell.”
And there are lessons for the Left and the Centre Left, here in New Zealand.
good analysis swordfish…a question that isn’t answered (and probably can’t be in advance) is what happens to the Labour Party (UK) IF Corbyn wins the leadership vote as even the recent polls indicate is probable?
Jeremy Corbyn has suffered unrelenting negative pressure from the establishment media, and even the Tory Prime Minister David Cameron has called on Corbyn to step down as Labour’s leader. As well as this there is an unprecedented and ongoing effort to topple him from within his own shadow cabinet, allegedly for not fighting the conservative Remain cause hard enough.
But behind the number crunching of how Corbyn’s support bears up (or not), under this establishment pressure there is a bigger story.
This is a must read.
Click on the link to read the full analysis of how the Centre Left have failed the British People by letting the extreme Right capture the political highground.
http://criticallegalthinking.com/2016/06/24/referendum-whats-left/
Amazing how many Labour seats in the North and in the Midlands now have Ukip in second place. Labour still tends to win in its heartlands but often on a plurality (38, 44, 48%) of the vote rather than with the 60, 65, 70% + it used to receive.
While Ukip’s vote seems to derive mainly from former Tories in the South, it looks more like two-thirds former Labour voters / one third former Tories and Lib Dems anywhere north of Leicester.
The EU Referendum stats suggest to me that, overall, Labour-voting working and lower-middle class C2DEs were pretty evenly split on the issue (though probably mildly favouring Brexit in the Midlands and the North, and perhaps fairly strongly so in a handful of East Coast ports). But then you also have to factor in all those former traditional Labour voters who swung to Ukip at the last Election. Add former to current working class Labour voters and you see that a significant majority opted for Brexit.
Significant cleavage opening up (or suddenly being revealed in all its glory) between
(1) affluent middle-class Labour-voting Metros and (2) working and lower middle-class Labour and former Labour voters in the urban “Rust Belt” sprawls and satellite cities surrounding the big Metro Centres.
Current post-Brexit shorthand for this divide is Hampstead Vs Hull.
I think the cleavage has been there for some time, but now people are seriously considering real political options and finding that there are some available…
The gains by the Far Right in formerly labour strongholds reflects the failure of the Centre Left to take on neo-liberalism especially the EU central banking system, and EU imposed “Austerity”.
I know that it is an extreme comparison to make, but all this brings to my mind the failure of the Centre Left in Germany in the ’30s, who by failing to unite with the Left to take on the neo-liberal banksters of their time, left the political field open to the Far Right who deflected people’s anger against the bankers and financiers, into racism, by falsely depicting the financial and economic crisis as being the result of Jewish domination of the banking and financial sector.
You can hear echoes of this false fascist deflection in the UKIP argument that the British people’s problems are all caused by immigrants and refugees flooding into the country.
Even the UKIP messaging is the similar with the notorious poster depicting a crocodile of refugees, reminiscent of Nazi anti Semitic posters, which was greeted with (almost) universal revulsion.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/16/nigel-farage-defends-ukip-breaking-point-poster-queue-of-migrants
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-party-gains-60000-new-members-following-attempted-coup-against-corbyn-a7112336.html
Another day in John Key’s neo-liberal nightmare.
We have become a cruel, greedy, uncaring and selfish nation under his wretched leadership.
Yet there are people who still care and who are unselfish.
David Tua represents the best of New Zealand.
A government that does not house its citizens adequately represents the worst of New Zealand.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/article.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=11667361
Today in the Herald.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11667166
‘What an official September 11 photographer filmed and why he says it cost him his freedom’
A call to collapse Auckland’s property market deliberately.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11667082
https://soundcloud.com/aklconversations
intensification or a state housing build (or both)…..effect would be the same
Could only happen by accident, it seems the main purpose of politics is to enable the wealthy to pillage the rest of us
+1
Aussie banks wouldnt allow it.
They have stopped loaning to overseas buyers.
Now that raises the question some numbers of foreign ownership are immediately available, which is something National always claim to be unable to get.
The Reserve Bank got concessions for not dropping interest rates.
Meanwhile, inflation keeps heading towards zero.
As I see a collapse would be a good thing so long as the government protected those who get caught. That would be a legitimate use of government powers to protect its citizens who foolishly or not succumbed to the pressure to ‘get in before prices rise any further’ For those who will have lost their ‘gain’ remember it is just theoretical and for those who owe more than the property in now worth it is a government action for the good of the country but they must be protected … government taking over the excess proportion of their mortgage perhaps.
Apart from bringing a few more people into the market, collapsing the property market will achieve very little apart from economic hardship for many.
Rents won’t change, why would they?, there’s still the same amount of houses in the market so rents will stay the same.
The only thing that’s going to fix the Auckland property market is to build more houses and that’s going to take years.
It’s nigh on impossible to get prices of anything to go down, they put them up at a drop of the hat too.
I agree with you BM , rents won’t change or if they do not by what they should even if we halve the cost of a property.
The best thing for Auckland is diversifying. We need to reduce the need to live there by making other places attractive with employment and housing.
There is no fix to any issue, they all link, housing links to availability links to affordability which links to employments which links to remuneration ..
The problem is most of our higher paid/higher tech jobs are in Auckland and large cities appeal more to immigrants.
By their standards Auckland isn’t particularly large or overcrowded.
Although they think it absurd that the public transport system is so primitive and limited, and that the traffic problems suit a city of 3M people, not 1.5M.
And unless they are multimillionaire immigrants, they can’t afford housing, unless they are earning well into six figures.
Regulate rents downward and property prices will follow.
I agree with you but that’s going to take a huge amount of government investment in education and other infrastructure in those areas up to and including building the factories that make stuff. Of course, they need to fund the R&D for those factories first. They need to be 3D printed factories that can produce a multiple products at the same time (eradicates economies of scale).
Then there’s the resources needed for those factories which means that we need to develop the resources that we have here to keep prices in line. So that’s extraction and processing that needs to be developed. R&D needed so that we don’t have to send people into mines and instead can use remote controlled drones – electric powered ones.
That’s going to require more generation capability so a mass building of wind and solar power. Probably best to R&D those as well.
Yes, we should develop the outer areas but we can’t just leave it to the market which means that the government is going to have to make plans.
I think a combination of both our ideas is the answer BM …. and as Molly pointed out rather than the flash houses she linked to we need small compact houses at a sensible price … $26T rather than $2600T. Need rather than desire.
Am I being thick here-what does $26T mean?
I assume “Thousand” ?? strange expression tho
Quite commonly used though 🙂
Not really. On the interwebs we tend to stick with SI units, and K=kilo=1000, T=tera=1 trillion (10^12)
It looks like “tera”, but I think that means ” billion”.
No, Giga is billion. Tera is trillion.
I have NFI WTF jcuknz means when he uses T that way.
Sorry Draco but you are simply not up with the play. T is used as a shortened version of thousand. obviously you did not read Molly’s informative posting a couple of days ago.
try using K for kilo (thousand)
Yes Pat I could but not in the context?
The ‘context’ is using the correct symbol so that people know WTF you’re talking about. Going round randomly changing meanings prevents communication.
No it’s not and never has been. For thousand you want ‘k’ or, if you’re a little more old school, you could use ‘grand’ but that ones pretty much gone now.
‘T’ is not used because it already has meaning and that meaning is actually ‘tera’.
Oh you poor old soul, stuck in the past I see 🙂
Language changes with time and I am setting a new trend that T can stand for thousand except for those stuck in their groove 🙂
NYT words smith ” words mean what I mean them to mean”
Actually, that was Humpty Dumpty.
And words may change over time, Gay is a brilliant example of that, but mathematics symbols don’t. Just think of how confused Blinglish would be if ‘T’ was both 1000 and 1,000, 000, 000, 000.
Oh the pain ,the pain…..
Aussie banks would lose a lot.
What do you think they will start doing with their farming debt, if their mortgages in housing went down.
National expect Aussie banks to keep the farmers going during this dairy price downturn.
Exactly! A collapse of the housing market would see the Aussie banks pulling support for the farmers. The Aussie banks are here simply to pull profits from the country – not for any philanthropic reason. Why we need control of our own finances.
The Nations ruining my weekend but I can’t stop watching it. Fkn McCully, Fkn Key…
Did anyone see the Saudi sheep.. lets call it what it is..a huge scandal.
Why give them an audience?
I gave up TV years ago in disgust at how it was going 26 years ago and it has only got worse since from what I can gather.
What? Has Munter emerged from hiding? What does he have to say for himself?
If you didn’t watch it you should have, McCullys gone when the auditor general repoirt comes out but the AG is procrastinating on her reportthe Nation exposed more shocks and a government scandal of sickening proportions the public should rightly be outraged at if it ever gets more then ignored
He’s fkd. McCully that is. It’s just a matter of when.
The other day McCulley could not answer questions in QT regarding an employee of his, allegedly double dipping during the tenure of McCulley at as Min World Cup. Why not? Because he was no longer Minister of World Cup.
Nor is Brownlie. No longer Min of Earthquake repairs so cannot answer for last years problems.
So when McCulley steps aside he is no longer held accountable.
But according to Mallard, the PM could be. Mmmm!
Known Chechen terrorist was given refugee status in Austria and protected from extradition to Russia. Now suspected as leader of Ataturk Airport attack
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-01/isis-mastermind-behind-istanbul-terrorist-attack-was-refugee-protected-europe
+100…obviously hypocrisy and double standards prevail in the EU….pretty shocking… so much for EU security and surveillance and protection of the public from terrorism
…and yet they still want Julian Assange extradited when it is clearly State trumped up charges and the women ‘victims’ have denied the charges laid against him
…Julian Assange is a threat because he exposes the truth about USA and its friends
…a terrorist on the loose is not regarded as a threat because he is perceived as being anti- Russia
“Trump picked the town of Monessen in western Pennsylvania on Tuesday and a backdrop of rubbish to declare “American economic independence” – six days before the July 4th Independence Day holiday – and to trash what he called “failed” trade policies. The presumptive Republican presidential nominee wants international trade deals such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership that President Barack Obama wants to sign with 11 Pacific Rim countries and the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement with Canada and Mexico renegotiated or ripped up.”
“Trump sharpened his rhetoric in a later speech in Ohio, saying that the Pacific trade deal was being “pushed by special interests who want to rape our country”, feeding supporters angry at the establishment.”
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/us/america-letter-trump-trashes-trade-deals-1.2707473
His media team are a clever little bunch
More from the guy who thought GPS would be the way to go for tolling Auckland’s motorways…
There’s been a lot of little white boxes, with solar panels attached, sprouting on poles every 3-400 m apart along highways down here over the last month. They are for this endeavour http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/307789/rental-cars-kitted-out-with-talking-safety-tips
Article seems to imply that they are government funded, and that was what the guys in the white van who were putting them up said.
Be interesting to see the costs of the program, and what it actually does. At a rough guess I’d say the boxes would be around $1000 each by the time they were up and working, and there’s a lot of them. Reporting could be suspect too, bluetooth from the box to car????
Nine years of censorship
Which is absolutely bloody atrocious and shouldn’t be allowed. Thankfully, that’s now changing under Canada’s new government:
Now NZ needs a government that will open up our researchers as well, one that will protect them from those that will attack them for what the research says.
a few points of commonality…9 years, neolibs and Crosby Textor
“Gretchen Goldman, the lead analyst with the UCS on this issue, says that one thing Canada might learn from the US experience is that it takes time for a culture of transparency to take root. Even after a more open administration assumes power, many staff members remain from the previous government, and have been trained in the more-restrictive policies. “Practices often lag the policy,” she says.
It could take years for Canadian scientists to recover from heavy funding cuts, low morale and tight control over communication. Looking back over what happened, Macdonald remembers something his grandmother once told him. “It takes ten years to make a good garden, but you can wreck it in six months,” he says. “It’s like that with science.”
I wonder what horrible skeletons the Nats are hiding in the closet. Judging by the stuff that DID get out (dirty politics, Oravida, Saudi sheep, etc), whatever else they have covered up must be pretty damn nasty
Where is the democracy?…Democratic Party rigs election in favour of Clinton
‘Sanders supporters sue DNC & Debbie Wasserman Schultz for rigging the system’
https://www.rt.com/usa/349277-sanders-lawsuit-wasserman-schultz/
‘Guccifer 2.0 reveals Clinton expenses, clues on identity & slams presidential hopefuls’
https://www.rt.com/usa/349193-guccifer-clinton-expenses/