Glad about that because I was just about to moan about the opposite. Looked at Stuff’s politics section and it’s all:
English won; Bill is back; Nat finds Lab’s weak spot; etc etc. Seemed like the sugar hit they got from Jacinda was over and they were now back in blood mode.
The media will bend whatever way they think the wind is blowing. They are no longer the fourth estate, they are just PR and revenue source for their owners.
It’s fascinating how so many people are jumping ship this election from media commentators to the general public.
I listen to a lot of talkback radio and the volume of people ringing up saying they have always voted national but this election are voting for Labour is staggering, it’s a beautiful thing when people finally ‘see the light’.
” What on earth does National do now? It is now crisis time in the governing party’s camp, pure and simple.
National’s election campaign strategy is in desperate need of a rethink after the party found itself on the receiving end of a morale-crippling double-whammy on Thursday evening.”
Sorry to be Grinchy but I don’t think they are ‘seeing the light’ – they are excited by a new shiny object. For a lot of the electorate, Jacinda Ardern is a sort of adult fidget spinner – must-have object of fascination for six weeks, then completely forgotten about.
I suppose the question is, will the fad last up to election day? And are we cynical enough to celebrate an election that is won on ephemeral froth, not policy?
lurgee
Really? You think calling Adern; “a new shiny object”, is less objectifying than; “a sparkly young thing”. Wow – just wow! As for; “adult fidget spinner”, you do get just how obscene that sounds, don’t you? [this paragraph then continued into pornographic territory which I opted to delete, along with the links]
I still contend that Ardern’s greatest virtue is that she allows the public to hear the policies that Labour has largely been advocating all along (with a few tweaks), briefly clear of the attack lines around; “unelectable Angry Andy”. You are probably right that six weeks is about how long it will take for focus testing of new Nat attack lines on Ardern. By which time the media will have played out the rise of Jacinda storyline, and be grateful to switch to a downfall narrative. Whatever fill (shows and articles) sells the content (ads).
Really? You think calling Adern; “a new shiny object”, is less objectifying than; “a sparkly young thing”. Wow – just wow! As for; “adult fidget spinner”, you do get just how obscene that sounds, don’t you? [this paragraph then continued into pornographic territory which I opted to delete, along with the links]
Well, if your mind immediately connects the term ‘adult fidget spinner’ with porn, that says something about where your mind is at.
On this blog, it is considered acceptable to refer to David Shearer as ‘Mumblefuck’; I don’t recall people getting up in arms about that. And that was Labour supporters commenting on the Labour leader … so I’m not going to treat your OUTRAGE over my mild disdainful comments about how facile and superficial our political culture is with too much seriousness.
[lprent: All part of our decade long culture of robust debate. Treating politicians or the behaviour of the voting public with respect is a purely optional activity. 😈 We are more concerned with behaviour on site, and I think that you and DSpare are merely continuing the long tradition here of mutual incomprehension – to every one eases amusement.. ]
lurgee
It is strange how; “adult” has come to mean; juvenile titillation, for example; “adult films” which are only watchable by adolescents. That’s not your fault of course, but it does mean that the phrase; “adult fidget spinner” is an unfortunate one to apply to any person. I find it easily amusing, even if everyone else doesn’t.
It was; “Captain Mumblefuck”, (I think that is was QoT who invented it, but it quickly caught on), so combined respect as well as disparagement – which is why it was so funny. Your; “sparkly young thing” is simple dismissive objectification. rather tedious, and assumes that your bigotry is shared by a large proportion of the electorate.
I’m not really outraged by your disdain for the positive reaction to Ardern, certainly not to the level of SHOUTING about it. More embarrassed to be sharing a comment thread with such a lumbering dinosaur. If you need a dismissive metaphor, surely you could do something with her being a casual DJ (“voters rushing to chase the pied-piper beat of a fashionable new dance track” or something like that).
Look at your children
See their faces in golden rays
Don’t kid yourself they belong to you…
It is strange how; “adult” has come to mean; juvenile titillation, for example; “adult films” which are only watchable by adolescents. That’s not your fault of course, but it does mean that the phrase; “adult fidget spinner” is an unfortunate one to apply to any person. I find it easily amusing, even if everyone else doesn’t.
Like I said, if you immediately link the term ‘adult fidget spinner’ with porn, that tells us something about you but not much more; though I’d observe it puts your ability to interpret other people’s meanings and intentions into doubt.
It was; “Captain Mumblefuck”, (I think that is was QoT who invented it, but it quickly caught on), so combined respect as well as disparagement – which is why it was so funny.
Plain old “Mumblefuck” on plenty of occasions, usually coupled with calls for him to resign. I think the apogee was when someone (Rhinocrates?) was complaining on one thread about use of abusive language and ranting about “Mumblefuck” on another. No self awareness, some people.
You really think continually referring to someone as “Captain Mumblefuck” can be read as showing respect? If anything, the bogus rank adds to the contempt. Instant credibility collapse.
I thought we were having an adult debate.
Oh, shit, I see how you’re going to interpret that …
Your; “sparkly young thing” is simple dismissive objectification. rather tedious, and assumes that your bigotry is shared by a large proportion of the electorate.
I’m not really outraged by your disdain for the positive reaction to Ardern, certainly not to the level of SHOUTING about it. More embarrassed to be sharing a comment thread with such a lumbering dinosaur. If you need a dismissive metaphor, surely you could do something with her being a casual DJ (“voters rushing to chase the pied-piper beat of a fashionable new dance track” or something like that).
Why would I poke fun at Ardern’s dablling in DJing? My target was not her and never was.
All this is in your head. Just admit you went off half-cocked (n.b. that is not a porn reference, but describes flintlock pistols misfiring) because you thought you saw something that wasn’t really there.
Lurgee… Don’t know about you but I’m voting for policy.
I know the teachers at school are voting for policy as they asked me about it and I gave them the printed info on education policy.
I know the parents around the corner are voting for policy, the are interested in free tertiary education and cheaper doctors visits, clean rivers to swim in.
I know the oldies next door (both sides) are voting for policy home heating among other things.
I know the latest leaders debate had huge viewing numbers, no doubt those viewers will be voting for policy too.
I also know that people are finally understanding just how bad things are in NZ, especially since Key has exited, and rosecoloured glasses are removed.
I do know people have had a gutsfull of the old boys club and old ideas.
It’s amazing that in the darkest room, that one glimmer of light changes everything.
Analytically the numbers/dates/reoccurances etc tell a fascinating story
That sounds great.
Can you please help me by telling me where I can find the Labour Party policy on taxation?
In particular the CGT they are talking about bringing in before the next election.
I heard a rumour that the water charges were to be on polluters and were to be spent on cleaning up rivers but since then there have been other stories about them being levied on non polluting water users such as horticultural businesses.
There also seems to be a proposal to spend the money on new roads rather than on cleaning up rivers.
Where is this material about policy documented?
Who told you horticulture didn’t produce pollution, alwyn? Check out this link to NIWA and pay particular attention to their comments about the effects of chemical runoff on water quality in rivers (and consequent loss of fish species, invertebrates etc plus increased algal, water turbidity…etc).
where 4 Banks try to drive off with $2.2 Billion of Government revenue ….. 100 X more than Benefit fraud in the same year …. John Key rewarded the accountant behind it …. John Shewan
Tony Molly QC : ” the IRD’s December 2009, NZ$2.2 billion settlement with ANZ, ASB, BNZ and Westpac over structured finance tax disputes, or as he puts it: “The four major New Zealand banks’ multi-billion dollar assault on the New Zealand tax system.”
Molloy notes that the settlement saw the banks agreeing to pay 80% of what IRD said they owed, and that prior to settling the IRD had won two High Court cases, one against BNZ and the other against Westpac. He suggests the full amount IRD could have sought from the banks, if penalties were included, amounted to about NZ$2.75 billion.
“(So) effectively a gift was being made to the banks of at least three quarters of a billion dollars.”
Yet Russell described the settlement as a very good result for New Zealand taxpayers.
“The ‘taxpayers of New Zealand,’ for whom the Commissioner was arrogating the right to speak, might have differed from his view that rewarding this anti-social assault on the New Zealand economy with a gift of three quarters of a billion dollars at their expense had been a ‘very good result’.”
and the other rich free loaders … stealing from ordinary honest Nzers and other people in the world … and the NActs help them do it ….
“a New Zealand Herald investigation revealed that Apple had paid zero tax in New Zealand in the past decade, despite selling billions of dollars’ worth of products to New Zealanders.
Oxfam New Zealand Executive Director Rachael Le Mesurier said: “New Zealand and many other countries around the world are missing out on crucial tax revenue from companies like Apple; money that could be invested in education, healthcare and infrastructure…. ” https://www.oxfam.org.nz/news/us-companies-stashing-16-trillion-shore
There is enough revenue …. But National undermine it ….
You quote the Herald as saying that
“a New Zealand Herald investigation revealed that Apple had paid zero tax in New Zealand in the past decade, despite selling billions of dollars’ worth of products to New Zealanders”
There is an alternative interpretation of this story which was explained in the DomPost. https://www.stuff.co.nz/90613870/Q-A-What-makes-Apple-NZs-tax-arrangements-unique
The problem is that although a lot of Apple goods are sold in New Zealand they don’t actually do any real business here. They completely manufacture the goods overseas, bring them here and simply sell them on. Their transfer price to the New Zealand market is just about what they sell them for.
I am not going to get into a debate about Apple’s tax affairs though. I would warn you though about what might happen if we allow Governments to arbitrarily decide what tax a multinational company should pay and what taxable income the business makes in “their” country.
The Chinese Government could simply decide that all the Fonterra sales made in China should be taxed in China. At the moment Fonterra makes nearly all of its income in New Zealand and pays its tax here. That is because there business is based here. Do you really want the Chines Government to simply decide that all Fonterra’s profit was really made in China and to slap taxes on them?
Taxation of multinational companies is a multinational problem and a standard method of allocating the profits will have to be developed and agreed by all the counties we trade with.
Their transfer price to the New Zealand market is just about what they sell them for.
In other words, they are running all of their sales and distribution to NZ from offshore. So if they want to sell their physical devices from here, then they must use a local company with local storage and distribution – like everyone else does. We just need to put in proper border controls to prevent direct distribution – the way that the Chinese do.
I think you will find it in the same place you would have found National’s promise of no new taxes… and then raised GST with heaviest impact on lowest earners.
Funny how so many care about their policy now. Last election they released shitloads and almost no one bothered to read it despite railing against them for not having any. Given that experience I can hardly blame them for not bothering as much with detail this time.
Funny how National suddenly thinks homelessness, housing, the environment, education and health have problems… and let us not forget alwyn, their great policy of using invisible language teachers in primary schools to improve children’s maths. Joyce has spent 9 years driving down staff and funding in Humanities in tertiary and polytechs and now they have to produce heaps of language teachers!
If you want a party with detailed policy and costing, vote Green but do not go to Labour or National websites. You will not find what you seek.
The last sentence is the only one that makes any sense.
It also conflicts with Cinny’s story about everyone voting on policy.
How can we when they won’t tell us what it is?
Your first paragraph is simply false. If you look at what was said you will find the statement was that taxes would not be increased. You, like everyone else may have interpreted it as being that each individual type of tax would not be increased. The alternative, that the total tax burden would not increase is equally valid and the one that Key said he meant and which he honoured. What does that have to do with anything, anyway? It was long, long ago and was said by someone who has retired from politics. It is about as relevant as anything David Cunliffe told us about.
I don’t think I bothered reading all of Labour’s policies last election because I never though they would be in a position to form a Government and I wasn’t going to vote for them anyway. Why waste my time? I am much more interested today because, in general, I do not believe that any Government should go for more than 3 terms. The problem is that there has to be a competent alternative which has well thought out plans. Labour has had 9 years to come up with some but they don’t seem to have anything they have actually thought through.
As far as reading the Green policies goes I think that is a waste of time. Firstly I don’t think they will have any MPs after the election and secondly, even if some miracle was to occur and they scraped back in, they won’t be in the Government. Any Government will either be National/NZF or Labour/NZF.
In the video, taken during a press conference in 2008, Mr Key was asked to rule out a hike in GST after suggestions the next government would have no choice but to raise GST to 15 per cent, and raise taxes.
Mr Key’s response to the question was: “National is not going to be raising GST.
He then went on to raise GST which is a regressive tax mostly affecting the poor while cutting taxes for the rich.
The problem is that there has to be a competent alternative which has well thought out plans.
Dude, you vote National who simply should never be in government because of their general psychopathy.
Labour has had 9 years to come up with some but they don’t seem to have anything they have actually thought through.
Except for the fact that they have which means that you’re lying again.
Here is the link to ALL of their announced policies so you may browse at your leisure. Please note… “More policy to be announced as we get closer to the election.”
Lurgee… Don’t know about you but I’m voting for policy.
I know the teachers at school are voting for policy as they asked me about it and I gave them the printed info on education policy.
I know the parents around the corner are voting for policy, the are interested in free tertiary education and cheaper doctors visits, clean rivers to swim in.
I know the oldies next door (both sides) are voting for policy home heating among other things.
I know the latest leaders debate had huge viewing numbers, no doubt those viewers will be voting for policy too.
That’s all very nice but do you really think Labour’s 15% surge is about policy. Like I said earlier, to the despair of DSpare, people are simply excited because they have a new toy that looks fun to play with.
“It feels like time for a generational change because the present Government’s big failure has been housing. It waited too long to do anything to dampen the demand that sent house prices through the stratosphere and has deprived too many of the younger generation of much hope of home-ownership. The Government left it to the Reserve Bank to eventually introduce loan-to-value restrictions, and left it to Labour to utter the once-unspeakable phrase, capital gains tax…Now Labour not only plans to extend the bright line to five years, but tax negative gearing (which I hope means remove interest deductions), remove urban limits and establish a $2 billion state corporation to build houses for sale at cost to first-home seekers.”
That is from the Roughan article, and it is what will win Labour the election.
Getting rid of interest deductibility is an excellent idea, and one which I have advocated myself in many a comment; (though I´m not sure if that is what is meant by ¨taxing negative gearing¨).
OR it shows how much we have become voters who want to be on the “winning” team and the polls direct us to who that will be. I still advocate abolition of polls from 3 months prior to an election. We might force our media to educate us rather than pontificate
Hey North. Putting words in my mouth there. I don’t advocate disengagement at all. I like Ardern and hope she is PM for three terms. I just don’t trust Roughan and I have a pretty clear picture of how he will start sniping away at a new government.
“The Bundesbank headquarters, less than 600 meters from the location of the bomb, stores 1,710 tonnes of gold underground, around half the country’s reserves.
“We have never defused a bomb of this size,” bomb disposal expert Rene Bennert told Reuters, adding that it had been damaged on impact when it was dropped between 1943 and 1945.
Airspace for 1.5 kilometers around the bomb site will also be closed.”
Really looking forward to the Health Debate on the Nation this morning.
Coleman spins the same old crap everytime, it’s almost worthy of a bingo board.
Hand picked stats followed by blaming a government from nine years ago, or blaming hospital health boards, blame blame, that’s how coleman rolls, he offers no hope.
NZ Health sector is seriously broken we hear so many stories about it, stretched services, over worked staff, equipment from bunnings, people suffering and dying due to an over burdened system.
Any comment on the hospital changes in westport coleman? Staggering that half the population of that town is attending protests against it.
Cinny
I can’t see a link on the Newshub/ Nation site, may check again at 9:30 to see if it is livestreamed (no TV unless I go visiting which mightn’t be appreciated this early on a Saturday morning). Hopefully, someone (probably Clark) asks Coleman about this:
National disclosed this week it had budgeted nothing for the estimated $1.4 billion project because of its intention to agree a public-private partnership (PPP).
Mr Macpherson said “It was agreed at this workshop that we (Waikato DHB) could not achieve all of the $32.5M savings needed in the first year…
“Therefore, I think it is totally wrong for him [Coleman] to have gone on National media to say that Waikato DHB will have a break-even budget; he knows this is not possible in the 2017/8 year, and he knows that we have not agreed on any position yet.”
Cinny
Thanks for the panel discussion link, I turned off after the debate. Had caughtup on the starting few minutes of the debate already, but good to get the timecode for Gowers smirk to the camera (at 14:55) after his; “good ideas don’t cost money” line. That really sums up his style of trying to insert his own ego into the story, which was further on display in the panel discussion.
I thought Harre looked a bit out of practice and got talked over a bit by others more used to speaking in soundbites. She did have interesting things to say that’d better suit a longer speech format.
Heather Roy was dangerously plausible. And while Newshub are happy to let us know she was a; “former Associate Health Minister”, this does not seem to be accuarate. She was a minister (& associate minister) outside cabinet in Key’s second term, but not for health. Later, she was demoted and for one year made the ACT party spokesperson for health (amongst other things). I personally wish that a political news program during an election would have a greater regard for accuracy.
Roy is currently chair if the pharmaceutical lobby group; Medicines New Zealand , who had this to say in one of their press releases:
“Already some pharmaceutical companies choose not to register medicines in New Zealand due to either the unlikelihood of funding approval by PHARMAC, or current Intellectual Property laws in New Zealand making the products not commercially viable. This is a statement of fact, not a threat. For this to be raised as a “threat” ahead of the US Trade Representatives’ Office visit is at best mischievous, and at worst a blatant misrepresentation of our position.
Medicines New Zealand supports the Trans-Pacific Partnership and its potential economic benefits to New Zealand.
Jonathan Coleman could not keep his head up strait its because he knows that everything in his scripted statements are a fascicle lies.
Lisa and Paddy are finally treating all there host with a unbiased manner which is the way we should demand that all our media reports our news.
And that story on children in state care you could see the people who were interviewed that were in the state care were devastated by what they experienced
while in state care you can see it in there eyes to.
This is one of the reason why I say that the state is to blame for all the gangs in OUR
country . One other reason is state targeted unemployment by killing of our union.
Union are designed to protect the vulnerable people whom do not no how to negotiate a fair deal for there employment.These people would and are being ripped off because unions have been shut down and demonized by the neo- liberals . Gangs are a product of our society gangs are a infection in our society which could infect any of our youth in many ways!!!!!!.
So lets come up with policy’s to cure this infection lets reward people who are in our justice system to stay out of jail . Lets reward employers to train employ and help give them self esteem self worth and a work culture a life worth living for
The carrot always works beter than the stick it is a much more intelligent humane and cost effective way to cure our society illnesses using policy’s based on this method.
We haven’t heard half the stories. I’ve said it here before but our entire public health system is in such a state and so chronically underfunded, it is now relying heavily on goodwill. Diabetes podiatric services, for example, are in dire need. Some DHBs can’t even afford to purchase consumables and basic equipment, and because of the resourcing issues the system cannot cope with the demand. Intervention is not happening early enough and diabetes-related amputation rates, for example, are increasing.
If fat is now back. Can we buy chip cooked in lard, tallow, or whatever. These oils they use now just make people fatter. Chips was a filling meal before the oil revolution.
You won’t be able to any time soon. Science progresses one death at a time, but the social sciences are even slower. Nothing to stop you using lard, dripping and butter for your home cooking, though – roast potatoes cooked with lard or dripping are awesome.
“If fat is now back. Can we buy chip cooked in lard, tallow, or whatever. These oils they use now just make people fatter. Chips was a filling meal before the oil revolution.”
Depends on how much you eat over time. The issue is insulin resistance (one of the underlying reasons for heart disease, stroke, diabetes etc), and this naturally increases over time so the older you get and the more refined carbohydrates you’ve been eating the less refined carbs it takes to push insulin resistance further.
I’d have my chips fried in fat, but I wouldn’t rely on them for a meal that often.
Agreed. Lard is much more consistent than Canola, tastewise. I believe that we like consistency, our bodies want to be able to get a nutrient and so find the taste that gave them that nutrient. But as foods become commodities, they can taste the same but come from a totally different nutrient niche. So our bodies are forced to eat more to find again the same amount of nutrient. It’s pregnant mothers eating cravings. Health food is locally sourced, not some industrial canola. So even if it’s better for us, it ain’t cos it’s making us fatter.
Big Brother knows everything.
If you had looked outside you would have seen Nicky Hager peering in the window. I suggest you pull the curtains in future.
China’s fooling itself. https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/australia/96429007/pms-blah-blah-blahing-show-australia-is-a-second-class-citizen-chinese-newspaper
NK fires and detonated a nuke in outerspace, would cause a economic depression.
China needs to remove those nukes, like USSR from Cuba, NK is its sphere of influence and makes us all concerned about Chinese threat to the world.
Grow up China!
NK is full of people who want change, they get their hands on the means to cause collapse of NK, like it isn’t already! It’s not going to bother them if a global depression ensues. All it takes is Kim to put a nuke on a missile any it’s a lottery.
Do you think the tension would be considerably lessened if the United States and its vassal countries stopped carrying out the ceaseless provocations on the border?
How do you think the United Kingdom, for instance, would react if an aggressive nuclear power staged “war games” in the Bristol Channel with half a million troops?
Provocative? Gulags. Forced Starvation. S.Korea look north and see their relatives…
We should not cease until regime change, oh and more pointedly, they sign a peace treaty bringing the Korean war to an end. Forgot that too.
David Clark was very good in the discussion on the Nation this morning. He has only been in the Health role for a few months, since Annette King stepped down from it, but he is clearly on top of the issues. His background is as a Treasury economist but also a Presbyterian minister. I hear he also has a large and efficient electorate organisation in Dunedin North and has been campaigning on the shocking Government neglect of Dunedin hospital for a long time. He would be a very competent Minister of Health and wouldn’t run away from the difficult issues like the current one.
Ethica
Clark was good, Coleman seemed a bit rattled (or maybe; ironically, had a cold – something was off with his voice anyway), but he’s never been good at fronting up to the camera. One thing you missed about Clark’s history is that he was Associate Spokesperson for Health from 2013 until March of this year when he took over from King ; so he has the depth of knowledge to back up his new role. The link for the debate is now here:
The interventions Clark was talking about seemed a bit top down to me. Three of the guys I started deepsea fishing with took their own lives – I suspect the causes were more socioeconomic than psychological or neurological. In our society the expectation is that men shall work and buy a home – in a society with 11% unemployment, significant housing inflation, and wage suppression from cheap migrant labour, this expectation is increasingly unachievable. Life in the precariat is not conducive to achieving eudaemonia.
the socioeconomic becomes psychological and if untreated becomes neurological.
at the end of the day fear of not being able to provide, of not being able to give your family a decent stable live is still fear or anxiety if you rather call it that way, and that is deeply psychological. Also many that are highly successful are often also very high strung, and we all know that the hardest healthcare to get in this country is mental healthcare. Even if you have the several hundred dollar a week it would cost you to see a Doctor. Not everyone that commits suicide starts out with a nicely diagnosed mental illness. I think for men socioeconomic reasons are more often then not the trigger to mental illness.
Agreed – I saw an attempted suicide when I took my father in to casualty for a broken arm a few months back. Economic factors were not insignificant in her life either.
The 12 o’clock news reported that Bill is throwing more money at the pest eradication programme and (this is what I heard) the total eradication of pests is ahead of schedule and will be complete in 2048, two years early!
Hell’s bell – are we meant to swallow this bullshit?
@Tony Veitch (not etc)
I think we are expected to swallow this rat. Indeed I believe it is a brilliant Malthusian recipe for a couple of problems.
The poor will be forced to get off their butts /sarc. and do something, ie to go and trap rats, and recipes and training will be given in how to hygenically prepare and cook rats with the appropriate herbs and spices.
Alt restaurants will spring up supplying this delicacy and national trials will be televised to find the most way-out raving chef and recipe. A TV show will be made showing the best, most talented rat-catchers, admiringly displaying their prowess and process from hole to bowl of juicy stew.
Don’t under-estimate Gnashional. They make their money from food obtained from the grassroots, and their whole intellect and intelligence is centred down there. They may be rats but specially cunning, so there never will be a problem of them getting caught and ending up in a bowl, though they might be drawn to the lights and fame in the Hollywood Bowl. But there be dragons, as well as rats.
I see Jacinda highlighted the importance of her “values” in the first leaders debate, to which English responded, “people can’t go shopping with your values.”
I think it’s important as voters (and especially for those from the left) we delve a little deeper into her values.
Here are a few questions we should be asking about her values.
What does maintaining a surplus while rejecting increasing core benefit rates imply about her values?
What does implementing a flat regional fuel tax, hitting lower income households the hardest, akin to GST (opposed to utilizing progressive income tax) imply about her values?
What does Labour’s policy of building 10,000 homes a year, yet only a 1000 state homes (when we clearly require more) say about her values?
At a time when the bottom end is doing it hard meanwhile CEO salaries are outrageously high. What does her rejection to increase the top tax rate say about her values?
Although Labour are a party that believes in full employment, what does her unemployment target of 4% imply about her values?
The Green at 15% when Labour was at 24% spoke volumes. I agree Greens poll higher than on the day. I do not know if this was the case when the Greens were first getting in to Parliament?
While some is natural return to Labour of disgruntled. But some of Labour’s strategy to bleed as much as they can may yet backfire if Greens get less than 5%. The “answer” would be to assist Greens to get a seat but that is not going to happen.
Maybe, but not likely, Turei knicks te Tai Tonga. 😉
Despite the Green’s current polling, left voters need to snap out of falling for our new cult of personality, look and question the values (my post at 9) Labour are revealing, and decide if they merely want a change of Government or do they want a Government that will do more?
John Armstrong asks, “What on earth does National do now? It is now crisis time in the governing party’s camp, pure and simple. National’s election campaign strategy is in desperate need of a rethink …”
Well John, National needs to invent a time machine, take the world back years, get brain and heart transplants and work from there.
A rethink of the election campaign strategy may be a desperate need but the far more desperate need was years ago.
“And Labour diehards with a long memory are starting to whisper the name David Lange and the year 1984.
That’s the last time they truly felt this buzz and momentum for a leader who went on to be the PM.”
Is that a happy memory or a subtle Garner dig at Labour and neoliberal dreams of change??
It was a mixed article. The headline did not really convey the gist of his story. BUT it served an editor’s purpose of making it seem like Labour are bad.
I must confess I tried not clicking on it all morning as I saw it climbing up the Herald ‘chart’ of popular stories, but…Garner…who can resist..but yeah, the article was totally flat after the promise of outrage in the heading.
This is Queenstown, last election National got 63% of the vote here, and if you add in the Cons it goes to 67%. So at least 12 point swing away from the dills
Not a bad piece by Andrew “I lost my job in coup” Little, that tops the list. Forget the link at the end of Andrew “I lost my job in coup” Little piece, does not work.
So prison reform, I would have thought with the Kelvin Davis all up in Aussies face their justice policy, with what 28 days or so, that it would be out by now.
Just so we clear the Tory’s have a justice policy all over the place, and verging on utter incoherence. With no prison reform. Plus as an added bonus, the usual attacks on the weakest in society as a center piece, coupled with failed polices discredited by both the left and the right. https://www.national.org.nz/national_s_plan_for_serious_young_offenders
Paul Bloom, psychologist and Yale professor, argues that empathy is a bad thing—that it makes the world worse. While we’ve been taught that putting yourself in another’s shoes cultivates compassion, it actually blinds you to the long-term consequences of your actions. In this animated interview from The Atlantic, we hear Bloom’s case for why the world needs to ditch empathy.
Short video at link.
He may have some valid points. Will have to wait and see once he publishes his book.
Thanks for that; I went on to read a little more by Paul Bloom.
If you haven’t read it yet, try this link: http://bostonreview.net/forum/paul-bloom-against-empathy (September 10, 2014). In it, he makes well-considered points supported by science when possible. I was pleasantly surprised to see the familiar name of Matthieu Ricard pop up too in regard to scientific research into compassion (and meditation).
With all the water that has passed under the bridge in the last month or so of New Zealand’s election campaign (and it’s been a torrent), I thought I’d offer some strategic insight if I was in the captain’s seat looking change the government and offer New Zealand a genuine progressive alternative to the last nine years of selfish soul-crushing neoliberalism. This strategy will be brief and not necessarily analyse in depth parties, or policies. Many others have done this so I wouldn’t be offering anything new. I’m by no means an expert of New Zealand politics, but I read about it a lot. This is based entirely on where things are now, and what’s currently on the table. I’ve looked at voting data from the previous election and compared it with more recent data.
So what do we know so far?:
— National’s support under Bill English is slowly eroding. The emphasis being slowly. They are no longer at the dizzying Key era heights of 47% polling. However they have still regularly been in the mid-to-low 40s. That’s not a bad place for them to be in, and governments can still be formed on those numbers. But inevitably they will need a coalition partner. The Labour leadership change might entice some centrist voters back from National, especially middle-class and educated women, and some might switch to Labour. The trend: a slow leak, but not necessarily in a dire position thus far. The latest Colmar Brunton poll that put National at 40%, 3 points below Labour, can’t be taken as a done and dusted sign. However, if the current trend continues I think this is where the result might settle. This is unless, they do something chronic which could see them dip into the 30s, but not by much.
—Labour’s rising star also must be taken with a grain of salt for two reasons. In order for a strong result they need those young, poorer, and non-voting types to actually turn up or the flashy gimmicks will all be a waste. Despite the latest poll that has them just in front, National could pip them at the post if they get their voters mobilised because of the threat of losing out on the coveted fourth term. But secondly, and more importantly, the need to adhere assiduously to the strategic importance of the Green Party as a valuable support partner. They signed the memorandum of understanding with the goal of changing the government to a real progressive alternative. The data from Horizon released this week suggested that 70% of voters who have switched to Labour have done so on the basis of Labour’s new leadership rather than the Green Party’s own internal strife. A little bit of switching was always expected, but if Labour starts sending the message that it no longer needs the Greens they risk losing this partner if they fall below the 5% threshold. Of course they will be flirting with the idea of New Zealand First, but strategically speaking the more coalition options the better. New Zealand First are a risk: they could join a Labour government that shuts out the Greens like 2005, or they could choose to support National. The point is, if you are someone looking for a strong progressive government, New Zealand First are not reliable in the same way that the Greens are. To me, a Labour-New Zealand First government is more tolerable than a National-New Zealand First Government (with or without the Green Party in Parliament). Even if Labour are still looking towards Winston and co., it would be strategically unwise for them to strangle the Greens out of Parliament as they could offer supply and confidence without being in coalition.
—Which brings me to the next party that Labour needs for a viable progressive coalition: the Māori Party. Party President Tokoroirangi Morgan has suggested that the party, on advice from members and constituents is open to working with Labour again. This certainly works well with kaupapa Māori of always having a seat at the table. On current polling the party still needs electorate seats to remain in Parliament. Labour has suggested it wants to hold all Māori seats, which is a dangerous strategy, because National has proven time and time again the importance of coalition partners. Labour seems to forget it is entitled to seats based on the party vote (unless of course you are a minor party that has a good chance of winning an electorate seat). If the Māori party could hang on to a couple of seats that would be strategically beneficial for Labour.
So what does all this mean? Well here are some things if I was Jacinda Ardern I would be thinking about with regards to forming a government on current number, as well as my prediction.
Here’s where I see the number’s settling. Below I will offer a bit more explanation as well as some basic MMP strategy.
–>
Party vote (%) Electorate seats List seats Total seats
Labour 42.5 29 23 52
National 39.5 39 9 48
NZ First 9 0 11 11
Green 6 0 7 7
TOP 1.5 0 0 0
Māori 1 2 0 2
ACT 0.5 1 0 1
United Future 0 0 0 0
100 71 50 121
I know there’s probably a certain degree of optimism, and therefore some bias, but I have tried to generous to even the right block parties.
The electorate seats here are based on my belief that Labour can win back the Maungakiekie, Ohāriu, and Christchurch Central. United Future is at a loss without Dunne, and National voters in Epsom smart enough to give ACT the tick. New Zealand First will pass the Greens as the third largest party, and the Greens themselves will just hang in there. On current polling in the Māori electorates, if Te Ururoa Flavell can hang on to Waiariki, and if Howie Tamati can pick up Te Tai Hauāuru from Labour, then that’s two seats Labour ought to take advantage of. Given these numbers Labour can put together what I believe can be a working coalition of Labour, Greens, and Māori to provide a one seat majority of 61. The remaining parties would add up to 60. In this scenario New Zealand first could offer confidence and supply. This also means National’s chances of coalition forming are seriously diminished because not only would they be the second largest party (Winston goes to the largest first), a coalition with ACT seems unworkable.
If Labour was serious about using MMP to its utmost advantage it would have to think like National. It needs coalition partners. If too many Green voters jump to Labour, say 1-2 %, it will make the Labour-New Zealand First scenario inevitable. To anyone putting together a real progressive coalition this is massive disappointment, as the Green Party wouldn’t even be in Parliament as a cross-bench or confidence and supply party. Labour can guarantee support partners by allowing the Māori party to retain its current numbers and one other radical strategy: withdraw Grant Robertson from Wellington Central to guarantee the Green Party an electorate seat in the event they fall below the 5% threshold. This is of course a risky strategy and the backlash from National and the media would be phenomenal. Electorate deals are acceptable for National but not Labour would be the message. However, I see the probability of both Labour and Robertson giving this seat to the Greens (even given its strategic value) as a snowball’s change in hell.
Whatever happens, Labour needs to be pragmatic rather than attempting to have its cake and eat it too. Don’t campaign at the expense of allies, because it’s going to be a tight one.
Post script: Here’s the “Wellington Central” strategy numbers adjusted from the above table.
Party vote (%) Electorate seats List seats Total seats
Labour 44 28 26 54
National 39.5 39 9 48
NZ First 9 0 11 11
Green 4.5 1 4 5
TOP 1.5 0 0 0
Māori 1 2 0 2
ACT 0.5 1 0 1
United Future 0 0 0 0
100 71 50 121
— National’s support under Bill English is slowly eroding. The emphasis being slowly. They are no longer at the dizzying Key era heights of 47% polling.
Thats unfair on Bill, it was eroding under Key and Key was savvy enough to get out before too many started to vocalise that fact. I say poor Bill. nice man.
David Seymour wants to give private schools 50% of the per-pupil State funding to private schools. I’ll agree to that if the private schools give 50% of their tuition fees to their nearest state school.
Private schools want it both ways – they want to be sort of state integrated so they can get state money but not enough state integrated so that they have to do without the resources that they get through making parents pay through the nose.
Private school parents shouldn’t get a hand out from the state when they chose to send their kids to private school. They put a burden on the state system by not contributing to the state system through their social capital – they shouldn’t be able to walk away and get funded for it. Walking away should come at a cost and high private school fees are that cost.
But there is a catch: “The ACT Party says it will give schools nearly $1 billion more, so long as they abandon national union contracts.”
Hope that they don’t give on Union. Individual contracts are cruel.
They’ve ditched further tax cuts I reckon, they’ve realised there’s no appetite for them and in fact NZers have cottoned on to the whole tax cuts equal degraded government services trick that National has been pulling all these years.
If they had any morals they’d go quietly into that good night.
Being the Gnats, Bill may disappear in a frenzy of backstabbing.
The thing to fear is a Mandelson-like revenant, the Key to National’s long and inglorious kleptocratic misrule, suddenly standing where Barclay once sat.
Labour now needs to ask what areas Bill is not coping with, and use that knowledge.
In many of the sciences a positive has to be balanced by a negative. For example in the planet’s atmosphere, an intense high pressure system will be balanced by an adjacent deep depression. Climate Change is causing these two extremes to become even more extreme but that is another story. Imo, it’s an hypothesis which can also be applied to politics.
To be relentlessly positive is fine but in order to balance out the equation the political party – and in particular it’s leader – must also address the negatives associated with it’s opposition political party or parties. Jacinda and her senior Labour MPs have to also constantly point out the weaknesses and the wrong footed actions of their opposite numbers. A failure to do so will eventually tilt the balance back in favour of National.
“Only doing one event a day”, was coined by National Party embedded journalist Stacey Kirk at the end of the week and it was plainly false because I know Ardern did three that day.
It looks like they are trawling their partisan media allies and repeating what they say in the next stand up. This manifested itself with Bingles attacking the Labour machine today (instead of the leader, specifically) using the same line.
Another criticism of Ardern by the National Party aligned media in Henry Cooke, Stacey Kirk, Jo Moir, Tracey Watkins, Claire Trevett, and Audrey Young is that she only goes to schools where hard questions won’t be asked.
Funny then that Bingles has done Whangarei Boys High, a sports institute, and an Ocean sports club in consecutive days. Is the Nat machine taking its cue off their media friends and the Labour Party?
I read so often of teachers brainwashing kids and how politics should not intrude into schools.
Why are school boards of trustees allowing their schools to be used for politicians to push their barrow?
Would the new buildings being promised for Whangarei Boys High School not come about if their board had said to the Prime Minister, “thanks for the needed buildings, we don’t need a big announcement, put it in a letter, we’ll tell our community about it and how grateful we are” ?
Also, as is the way with the National Party and their pollster, Dr Death threw the same numbers around which mean nothing without reference. He says there’s 50,000 more operations a year but, since when?
I loved that Coleman said twice in a row in answer to two different questions “after the election – if we’re elected”…
Those words weren’t in their lexicon 4 weeks ago.
Bout bloody time!
ROFL that’s his go to line, don’t forget the appointments lmfao. Was cracking up this morning hearing him say it over and over again, it’s all he’s got, uses it in Parliament repeatedly. Just did a search on Parliament and his go to line.. check out the result lolololz Results 1-10 of 9536 for 50,000 more operations
That’s encouraging but from what I saw last week Marama Fox was not interested in working with Labour. She still has Stockholm syndrome after being slave to National for all these years.
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Public consultation launched on ways to improve behaviour and reduce damage Tighter rules proposed for either camping vehicles or camping locations Increased penalties proposed, such as $1,000 fines or vehicle confiscation Rental companies may be required to collect fines from campers who hire vehicles Public feedback is sought on proposals ...
The Government is continuing to support Air New Zealand while aviation markets stabilise and the world moves towards more normal border operations. The Crown loan facility made available to Air New Zealand in March 2020 has been extended to a debt facility of up to $1.5 billion (an additional $600 ...
Christchurch’s Richmond suburb will soon have a new community hub, following the gifting of a red-zoned property by Land Information New Zealand (LINZ) to the Richmond Community Gardens Trust. The Minister for Land Information, Damien O’Connor said that LINZ, on behalf of the Crown, will gift a Vogel Street house ...
Minister for Pacific Peoples Aupito William Sio says the reopening of the Ministry for Pacific Peoples’ (MPP) Languages Funding in 2021 will make sure there is a future for Pacific languages. “Language is the key to the wellbeing for Pacific people. It affirms our identity as Pasifika and ...
It is a pleasure to be here tonight. Thank you Cameron for the introduction and thank you for ERANZ for also hosting this event. Last week in fact, we had one of the largest gatherings in our sector, Downstream 2021. I have heard from my officials that the discussion on ...
Research, Science and Innovation Minister Megan Woods has today announced the 16 projects that will together get $3.9 million through the 2021 round of Te Pūnaha Hihiko: Vision Mātauranga Capability Fund, further strengthening the Government’s commitment to Māori knowledge in science and innovation. “We received 78 proposals - the highest ...
The Government is delivering on a key election commitment to tackle climate change, by banning new low and medium temperature coal-fired boilers and partnering with the private sector to help it transition away from fossil fuels. This is the first major announcement to follow the release of the Climate Commission’s ...
Six projects, collectively valued at over $70 million are delivering new schools, classrooms and refurbished buildings across Central Otago and are helping to ease the pressure of growing rolls in the area, says Education Minister Chris Hipkins. The National Education Growth Plan is making sure that sufficient capacity in the ...
Two more schools are now complete as part of the Christchurch Schools Rebuild Programme, with work about to get under way on another, says Education Minister Chris Hipkins. Te Ara Koropiko – West Spreydon School will welcome students to their new buildings for the start of Term 2. The newly ...
The Government is acting to ensure decisions on responding to the next phase of the COVID-19 pandemic are informed by the best available scientific evidence and strategic public health advice. “New Zealand has worked towards an elimination strategy which has been successful in keeping our people safe and our economy ...
Six Māori scholars have been awarded Ngārimu VC and the 28th (Māori) Battalion Memorial scholarships for 2021, Associate Education Minister and Ngārimu Board Chair, Kelvin Davis announced today. The prestigious Manakura Award was also presented for the first time since 2018. “These awards are a tribute to the heroes of the 28th ...
New Zealand’s aerospace industry is getting a boost through the German Aerospace Centre (DLR), to grow the capability of the sector and potentially lead to joint space missions, Research, Science and Innovation Minister Megan Woods has announced. 12 New Zealand organisations have been chosen to work with world-leading experts at ...
The Government is backing more initiatives to boost New Zealand’s food and fibre sector workforce, Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor announced today. “The Government and the food and fibres sector have been working hard to fill critical workforce needs. We've committed to getting 10,000 more Kiwis into the sector over the ...
Minister for Social Development and Employment Carmel Sepuloni has welcomed the first reading of the Social Security (Subsequent Child Policy Removal) Amendment Bill in the House this evening. “Tonight’s first reading is another step on the way to removing excessive sanctions and obligations for people receiving a Main Benefit,” says ...
The Government has taken a significant step towards delivering on its commitment to improve the legislation around mental health as recommended by He Ara Oranga – the report of the Government Inquiry into Mental Health and Addiction, Health Minister Andrew Little says. The Mental Health (Compulsory Assessment and Treatment) Amendment ...
Local Government Minister Nanaia Mahuta has welcomed the Local Government (Rating of Whenua Māori) Amendment Bill passing its third reading today. “After nearly 100 years of a system that was not fit for Māori and did not reflect the partnership we have come to expect between Māori and the Crown, ...
New Zealand’s successful management of COVID means quarantine-free travel between New Zealand and Australia will start on Monday 19 April, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced today. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins confirmed the conditions for starting to open up quarantine free travel with Australia have ...
Minister for Treaty of Waitangi Negotiations Andrew Little welcomed ngā uri o Ngāti Hinerangi to Parliament today to witness the third reading of their Treaty settlement legislation, the Ngāti Hinerangi Claims Settlement Bill. “I want to acknowledge ngā uri o Ngāti Hinerangi and the Crown negotiations teams for working tirelessly ...
Minister of Police Poto Williams has announced the members of the Ministers Arms Advisory Group, established to ensure balanced advice to Government on firearms that is independent of Police. “The Ministers Arms Advisory Group is an important part of delivering on the Government’s commitment to ensure we maintain the balance ...
Kiri Allan, Minister of Conservation and Emergency Management will undertake a leave of absence while she undergoes medical treatment for cervical cancer, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced today. “I consider Kiri not just a colleague, but a friend. This news has been devastating. But I also know that Kiri is ...
Excellent progress has been made at the new prison development at Waikeria, which will boost mental health services and improve rehabilitation opportunities for people in prison, Corrections Minister Kelvin Davis says. Kelvin Davis was onsite at the new build to meet with staff and see the construction first-hand, following a ...
To reduce the trauma of road crashes caused by drug impaired drivers, an Independent Expert Panel on Drug Driving has proposed criminal limits and blood infringement thresholds for 25 impairing drugs, Minister of Police Poto Williams and Transport Minister Michael Wood announced today. The Land Transport (Drug Driving) Amendment Bill ...
Temporary COVID-19 immigration powers will be extended to May 2023, providing continued flexibility to support migrants, manage the border, and help industries facing labour shortages, Immigration Minister Kris Faafoi announced today. “Over the past year, we have had to make rapid decisions to vary visa conditions, extend expiry dates, and ...
Temporary COVID-19 immigration powers will be extended to May 2023, providing continued flexibility to support migrants, manage the border, and help industries facing labour shortages, Immigration Minister Kris Faafoi announced today. “Over the past year, we have had to make rapid decisions to vary visa conditions, extend expiry dates, and ...
The Government is expanding its Pregnancy and Parenting Programme so more women and whānau can access specialist support to minimise harm from alcohol and other drugs, Health Minister Andrew Little says. “We know these supports help improve wellbeing and have helped to reduce addiction, reduced risk for children, and helped ...
*** Please check against delivery *** It’s an honour to be here in Rūātoki today, a rohe with such a proud and dynamic history of resilience, excellence and mana. Tūhoe moumou kai, moumou taonga, moumou tangata ki te pō. The Ahuwhenua Trophy competition is the legacy of a seed planted ...
The economic recovery from COVID-19 continues to be reflected in the Government’s books, which are again better than expected. The Crown accounts for the eight months to the end of February 2021 showed both OBEGAL and the operating balance remain better than forecast in the Half Year Economic and Fiscal ...
Sport and Recreation Minister Grant Robertson and Economic Development Minister Stuart Nash have welcomed confirmation New Zealand will host the opening ceremony and match, and one of the semi-finals, of the FIFA Women’s World Cup in 2023. Grant Robertson says matches will be held in Auckland, Hamilton, Wellington and Dunedin, ...
Changes to the minimum wage, main benefit levels and superannuation rates that come into force today will raise the incomes for around 1.4 million New Zealanders. “This Government is committed to raising the incomes for all New Zealanders as part of laying the foundations for a better future,” Minister for ...
The New Dunedin Hospital – Whakatuputupu has been approved for consideration under the fast track consenting legislation. The decision by Environment Minister David Parker signifies the importance of the project to the health of the people of Otago-Southland and to the economy of the region. “This project ticks all the ...
Transport Minister Michael Wood is getting Auckland light rail back on track with the announcement of an establishment unit to progress this important city-shaping project and engage with Aucklanders. Michael Wood said the previous process didn’t involve Aucklanders enough. ...
The Minister of Tourism is to re-open a government fund that supports councils to build infrastructure for visitors, with a specific focus on regions hardest hit by the loss of overseas tourists. “Round Five of the Tourism Infrastructure Fund will open for applications next month,” said Stuart Nash. It ...
A Governance Group of eight experts has been appointed to lead the next phase of work on a potential new public media entity, Minister for Broadcasting and Media Kris Faafoi announced today. “The Governance Group will oversee the development of a business case to consider the viability of a new ...
Minister for Māori Development Willie Jackson today helped launch a new fund to provide direct financial support for tamariki and rangatahi Māori throughout the South Island who is experiencing financial hardship and missing out on physical activity opportunities. “Through Te Kīwai Fund, we can offer more opportunities for Māori to ...
Six whānau in Pāpāmoa receive the keys to their brand-new rental homes today, in stage four of a papakāinga project providing safe and affordable housing in the regions. Minister for Māori Development, Willie Jackson congratulates Mangatawa Pāpāmoa Blocks Incorporated on the opening of three affordable rentals and three social housing ...
Kia ora tatou. It’s great to be here today and to get a conversation going on the disarmament issues of greatest interest to you, and to the Government. I’m thrilled to be standing here as a dedicated Minister for Disarmament and Arms Control, which I hope reinforces for you all ...
Dunedin writer Victor resumes his Sunday odes to public figures. Today: Mike HoskingThe Hosky and Cindy Show I want you on my show. And then I do not. I’ve fired you again. You’ve had your shot. You cancelled yourself. You’re on the shelf. But now ...
Sex is life in acclaimed Waikato writer Tracey Slaughter’s latest short story collection. Of course it’s there in Slaughter’s stories about affairs. In those pieces sex thumps and pants and dominates, it goes so hard it knocks grit off the ceiling and onto the bed, it sets fire to a marriage, ...
Bathroom, kitchen, sitting room, bookshelves, friends, memories – Linda Burgess ponders the decluttering of life. Made possible thanks to the support of Creative New ZealandOriginal illustrations by Gary Venn Go to the second drawer down in your bathroom. Open it. In it are countless small bottles of shampoo and skin cream ...
Analysis by Bryce Edwards. Political scientist, Dr Bryce Edwards. Judith Collins’ National Party leadership is under more scrutiny, with increased talk in the media of her being replaced by brand new MP Christopher Luxon. For many commentators it’s just a question of “when” rather than “if” Collins is replaced. While ...
Kiwi Seafarers continue to feel shortchanged by the New Zealand Government. On the 1st of December 2020 the UN general Assembly called for all Seafarers to be designated as Key Workers . International Maritime Organization (IMO) Secretary-General Kitack ...
Revelations that foreign affairs officials have approved the sale of military equipment to a host of human-rights-abusing countries, including Israel, is an outrage. In recent years foreign affairs has been dominated by trade priorities with concerns ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Simon Quilty, Senior Staff Specialist, Alice Springs Hospital. Honorary, Australian National University A sizeable chunk of Northern Territory’s doctors are thinking about leaving the territory because of climate change, our new research shows. Our study, just published in The Lancet Planetary Health, ...
With the trans-Tasman bubble on the way, Auckland Airport has undertaken the unique challenge of splitting one airport into two. Matthew Scott went along to see what the parallel worlds look like. Birdsong is piped into an empty hallway. A message to nobody plays on the intercom. Luxury stores ...
The Royal New Zealand College of General Practitioners is today marking the death of their patron, His Royal Highness The Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh. Prince Phillip had been patron of the College for 47 years, since he formally handed over ...
"People are walking up the hill, as we walk down, with their hands on their hips, their faces red, or looking directly at the path, not game enough to look up to see how far they’ve got to go": a portrait of a relationship set in a Dunedin landmark, by ...
It was with great sadness that I received notification from Buckingham Palace that His Royal Highness Prince Philip has died at Windsor Castle. The death of His Royal Highness is a great loss to Her Majesty the Queen, the members of the Royal Family ...
The Royal Commonwealth Society expresses its deepest condolences on the passing of His Royal Highness The Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh. The Royal Commonwealth Society expresses its deepest sympathy and condolences to our Patron, Her Majesty ...
9 April 2021 Monarchy New Zealand today expresses its sadness at the passing of Queen of New Zealand’s consort, His Royal Highness The Prince Philip Prince Philip died aged 99. Prince Philip is the longest-serving consort in New Zealand’s history. ...
"On behalf of ACT, I would like to express sincere condolences to Her Majesty the Queen and the Royal Family. "Prince Philip will be remembered for his long dedication to public service. He has selflessly contributed to a long period of stability ...
Critic's Chair: Guy Somerset salutes Losing Alice, a compelling eight-part psychological thriller showing on Apple TV+ Who doesn’t like a compliment, a bit of flattery? But, unless you happen to be Donald J Trump, when the flattery spills over into sycophancy you tend to get suspicious. Alice Ginor (Ayelet Zurer) ...
WATCH: Silver Ferns shooter Monica Falkner talks about the pain of losing her dad, then fighting back from injury in part three of Pure As. Monica Falkner knows her dad, David, would have shed tears watching her finally play for the Silver Ferns against England last year - after five harrowing ...
Rampant house prices mean saving money for a deposit on a home is becoming increasingly fruitless. But just how long does it take in today’s market compared to a few years ago?Of all the essential and obscure pecuniary concepts that we learn throughout life, saving is one of those things ...
From the trauma of loss, Jean Sergent built a stage production that offers an invitation to others to embrace the radical possibility that things can get better.I’ve always been interested in death and dying – not the mechanics of it, but the social conditions. How death is prepared for, announced, ...
Ardent disciple of mountain, valley, river and sky, Brian Turner is one of New Zealand’s most celebrated poets. Michelle Langstone travelled to his central Otago home to meet and hear the man who commands the language of the landscape.The landscape starts speaking to you from the turnoff on to the ...
For almost three years, Onzo’s black and yellow fleet littered New Zealand’s streets with an accessible and affordable two-wheel option. Then it vanished, leaving behind a trail of angry and perplexed customers. Auckland’s first dockless bike-share scheme has disappeared in much the same way it first arrived – quietly, mysteriously and ...
George Driver heads to the end of the Earth to spend his birthday alone in New Zealand’s forgotten city.“Don’t go to Invercargill.”I’d spent most of my life a couple of hours’ drive from Invercargill. But every time I considered going I was confronted with this advice: “Don’t go, it’s not ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Luke Jeffrey, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Southern Cross University Trees are the Earth’s lungs – it’s well understood they drawdown and lock up vast amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. But emerging research is showing trees can also emit methane, and it’s ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Last week, people were falling over themselves to get vaccination appointments and had to be told, by their doctors and their government, to be patient. Patience is still needed — indeed, more than ever — ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra A week ago, people were falling over themselves to get vaccination appointments and had to be told, by their doctors and their government, to be patient. Patience is still needed — indeed, more than ever ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hassan Vally, Associate Professor, La Trobe University Last night, the federal government announced substantially revised plans for the use of the AstraZeneca vaccine in Australia. Due to concerns about the vaccine’s possible links to a rare blood-clotting disorder, and following advice from ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Katherine Aigner, PhD candidate Centre for Aboriginal Economic Policy, Australian National University On Saturday at the Adelaide Festival there will a public showing of Australian Atomic Confessions, a documentary I co-directed about the tragic and long-lasting effects of the atomic weapons testing ...
The Human Rights Commission is calling for more information on the justification behind the temporary suspension of travel from India. “Temporarily banning New Zealanders from returning home from India is a significant limitation on their freedom ...
The Chinese developers who caused an environmental disaster on an idyllic Fijian island have been found guilty on two counts of undertaking unauthorised developments in relation to a planned 370-bure resort and casino. The Suva Magistrates Court delivered its verdict against Freesoul Real Estate today, after the ruling date was pushed out twice with no ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Esterman, Professor of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of South Australia Australia’s vaccine rollout is in chaos. The news last night the AstraZeneca vaccine, the only one Australia has guaranteed supply of, would not be recommended for people under 50 due to ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jan Golembiewski, Researcher, University of Technology Sydney The Royal Commission into Aged Care left organisations that provide housing for aged care wondering how they will put its recommendations into effect. Most of these recommendations relate to the models of care and levels ...
Our Beehive bulletin The Government’s ban on new low and medium temperature coal-fired boilers and partnering with the private sector to help it transition away from fossil fuels perhaps ranked as the most important Beehive announcement yesterday. It was the first major announcement to follow the release of the Climate ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nikki Turner, Professor, University of Auckland From next week, unvaccinated staff working at managed isolation and quarantine (MIQ) facilities will be moved to low-risk jobs, following a case of a worker who missed vaccination appointments and then tested positive for COVID-19. The ...
The proposed Regulatory Standards Bill has been welcomed by Energy Resources Aotearoa as a useful tool in developing better public policy. The Bill was drawn from the members ballot at Parliament on Thursday. "This should help deliver better policy ...
Division and social discord has undermined Covid-19 responses in other western nations. We must do everything we can to prevent that taking seed here, writes Green Party MP Golriz Ghahraman. The Ministry of Health has done a stellar job in keeping us all safe. I have no doubt that the latest ...
The only published and available best-selling indie book chart in New Zealand is the top 10 sales list recorded every week at Unity Books’ stores in High St, Auckland, and Willis St, Wellington.AUCKLAND1 The Mirror Book by Charlotte Grimshaw (Vintage, $38)Excerpt from Emma Espiner’s fantastic Spinoff review of this fantastic ...
Eight Wellington City Councillors – given the critical constitutional choice of Treaty partnership or democracy – yesterday voted in favour of further undermining the council’s democratic election and decision-making structures by granting voting rights to the representatives appointed by Maori tribes to sit on council committees. Only six councillors voted ...
Mike Hosking did, didn’t, does, doesn’t, will and won’t want to have the PM on his radio show, while simultaneously accusing the New Zealand media of being asleep at the wheel, writes James Elliott It was reported in the news this week that the concentration of carbon dioxide in the earth’s atmosphere ...
Green Party MP Ricardo Menendez March’s labelling of police dogs as being “attack dogs” is as out of touch as it is insulting to our entire police force, says Darroch Ball co-leader of Sensible Sentencing Trust. “A bill seeking to increase the maximum ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Benjamin Reilly, Professor, University of Western Australia Could a change be afoot in the way Australians vote in federal elections? The Coalition government may be eyeing a shift to optional preferential voting — as used in New South Wales — which allows ...
The New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union is urging action in the case against New Zealand-born Paul Mora, who allegedly fraudulently claimed €113 million in German tax credits. Paul Mora is wanted by Interpol in relation to the Cum-Ex tax affair after failing ...
An almost forgotten moment in our history, brought into the spotlight by a gutsy new theatre show, reveals uncomfortable truths about the history of race relations in Aotearoa.In a country that has until very recently avoided teaching its own history in schools, it’s perhaps unsurprising that a confrontation between university ...
A new poem from Ōtautahi-based poet Claudia Jardine.Ode to Mons Pubisfatty tissue, edifice of overturesjoints, ligaments, bones, cartilagedark turns to stars when I think aboutthe buttress of pubic symphysisyes! paths of faery lights, yes! brambly wadsyes! tracks of calligraphic gastropodsyes! tender grasses, yes! boxed bedsclippings from a crooner’s greenhousetopiary of ...
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is speaking to media a day after announcing a suspension of travel from India because of high numbers of Covid-19 cases. ...
The country's largest education union, NZEI Te Riu Roa, is backing the school students striking for climate action across the country today. NZEI Te Riu Roa President Liam Rutherford says the organisation "fully supports tamariki and educators who ...
At its core, Aotearoa New Zealand’s housing crisis is not about houses, but about the way we think about wealth, community, ourselves and our neighbours, the economy, education system, and much more. The only solutions to this problem involve everyone. ...
One year ago today managed isolation became mandatory for travellers arriving into New Zealand. The joint heads of Managed Isolation and Quarantine, Megan Main and Brigadier Jim Bliss, have paid tribute to the efforts of those who’ve contributed ...
Public feedback is now invited to improve freedom camping in New Zealand. To support the public consultation, the first of a series of public meetings throughout Aotearoa is being held at the Ellen Melville Centre in central Auckland from 2pm – 4pm on ...
Editor’s Note: Here below is a list of the main issues currently under discussion in New Zealand and links to media coverage. Click here to subscribe to Bryce Edwards’ Political Roundup and New Zealand Politics Daily. Today’s contentCovid: India travel ban Luke Malpass (Stuff): Is the the ‘temporary’ India travel ban proportional ...
Hospitals should be a place of welcome and healing. But for gender-diverse people and their families, going to the hospital can feel like walking into a linguistic minefield. While a child was being treated at a New Zealand hospital last month, a health professional kept using the wrong gender pronouns ...
Local Government New Zealand welcomes the long overdue review of self-contained freedom camping rules announced by Tourism Minister Stuart Nash today. “Many councils across the country welcome the contribution freedom campers make to local economies,” ...
A new just transition plan released today by Climate Justice Taranaki calls for a major shift towards a domestic economy and away from exports and imports in a phase out of fossil fuels by 2030. The document focuses on Aotearoa’s three main greenhouse ...
Today Renters United launches their campaign for #RentControlsNow. This comes just weeks after the Government announced it’s housing package, a package that Renters United said “fell short of delivering any change to over one third of New Zealanders ...
Three… two… one… blast-off! They’re an incredible sight, but what’s the impact of rocket launches on the environment? Mirjam Guesgen investigates.Commercial space flights, moon colonies and missions to Mars are all exciting prospects. Some of them are even being helped along by New Zealand companies. Rocket launches are loud, ground-shaking, smoggy ...
A government committed to fairness and responsible law-making should not allow two bills recently drawn from the Member’s Ballot to sink without debate, Federated Farmers says. "At the very least the Regulatory Standards Bill and the Income ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ritesh Chugh, Senior Lecturer – Information Systems and Analysis, CQUniversity Australia If you’ve ever gotten your phone wet in the rain, dropped it in water or spilt liquid over it, you’re not alone. One study suggests 25% of smartphone users have damaged ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael Macaulay, Professor of Public Administration, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington Following a number of high-profile inquiries into workplace misconduct — including within parliament, the police and fire service — it became clear people who report such behaviour in ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Holly Seale, Associate professor, UNSW This year is shaping up as the year of the COVID-19 vaccination photo, with the pandemic providing seemingly endless photo opportunities. We’ve seen stock photos of people getting vaccinated in news reports, images of the prime minister ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lucinda McKnight, Senior Lecturer in Pedagogy and Curriculum, Deakin University Robots are writing more of what we read on the internet. And artificial intelligence (AI) writing tools are becoming freely available for anyone, including students, to use. In a period of rapid ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Richard Holden, Professor of Economics, UNSW House prices are back in the news, and out of control. In the past three months the median house price in Sydney has risen by more than A$100,000 to A$1.12 million. Sydney’s median residential property price ...
Welcome to The Spinoff’s live updates for April 9, bringing you the latest news throughout the day. For one day only, Stewart is off, so to get in touch email Bulletin editor Alex Braae at thebulletin@thespinoff.co.nz.The Spinoff can’t exist without our members. If you want to help us stay ...
Good morning and welcome to The Bulletin. In today’s edition: Four key questions for the climate strikers, unvaccinated border worker tests positive, and big implications of ban on arrivals from India.We’re going to start today’s Bulletin with something different – a short interview. Because today teenagers across the country will once ...
The climate strikes are finally back! It’s been a turbulent year-and-a-half since our last strike, with two cancellations due to COVID-19, but finally we’re back with our fourth Intergenerational Strike 4 Climate. Christina Sieberhagen, 15, is ...
Staff from the animal rights organisation SAFE are going on strike today and will be marching with School Strike 4 Climate NZ in Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch. SAFE CEO Debra Ashton said the strike is especially important to SAFE because farming ...
From: Auckland Feminist Action and Migrant Zine Collective Feminist coalitions across Tāmaki Makaurau are calling on elected leaders to put an end to sexual violence in Aotearoa. The coalitions on Saturday, April 10 at 2pm, will march down Queen Street ...
OMG NZHerald’s John Roufhan supports change of government with Ardern.
I read that Ad. The mood for change is strong in the papers this morning.
Glad about that because I was just about to moan about the opposite. Looked at Stuff’s politics section and it’s all:
English won; Bill is back; Nat finds Lab’s weak spot; etc etc. Seemed like the sugar hit they got from Jacinda was over and they were now back in blood mode.
The media will bend whatever way they think the wind is blowing. They are no longer the fourth estate, they are just PR and revenue source for their owners.
+1
It’s fascinating how so many people are jumping ship this election from media commentators to the general public.
I listen to a lot of talkback radio and the volume of people ringing up saying they have always voted national but this election are voting for Labour is staggering, it’s a beautiful thing when people finally ‘see the light’.
Link to the John Roufhan Herald article that Ad mentioned http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=11915370
Also in the Herald this morning from John Armstrong..
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=11915584
” What on earth does National do now? It is now crisis time in the governing party’s camp, pure and simple.
National’s election campaign strategy is in desperate need of a rethink after the party found itself on the receiving end of a morale-crippling double-whammy on Thursday evening.”
Sorry to be Grinchy but I don’t think they are ‘seeing the light’ – they are excited by a new shiny object. For a lot of the electorate, Jacinda Ardern is a sort of adult fidget spinner – must-have object of fascination for six weeks, then completely forgotten about.
I suppose the question is, will the fad last up to election day? And are we cynical enough to celebrate an election that is won on ephemeral froth, not policy?
But you celebrated when John Key won on froth.
lurgee
Really? You think calling Adern; “a new shiny object”, is less objectifying than; “a sparkly young thing”. Wow – just wow! As for; “adult fidget spinner”, you do get just how obscene that sounds, don’t you? [this paragraph then continued into pornographic territory which I opted to delete, along with the links]
I still contend that Ardern’s greatest virtue is that she allows the public to hear the policies that Labour has largely been advocating all along (with a few tweaks), briefly clear of the attack lines around; “unelectable Angry Andy”. You are probably right that six weeks is about how long it will take for focus testing of new Nat attack lines on Ardern. By which time the media will have played out the rise of Jacinda storyline, and be grateful to switch to a downfall narrative. Whatever fill (shows and articles) sells the content (ads).
Well, if your mind immediately connects the term ‘adult fidget spinner’ with porn, that says something about where your mind is at.
On this blog, it is considered acceptable to refer to David Shearer as ‘Mumblefuck’; I don’t recall people getting up in arms about that. And that was Labour supporters commenting on the Labour leader … so I’m not going to treat your OUTRAGE over my mild disdainful comments about how facile and superficial our political culture is with too much seriousness.
[lprent: All part of our decade long culture of robust debate. Treating politicians or the behaviour of the voting public with respect is a purely optional activity. 😈 We are more concerned with behaviour on site, and I think that you and DSpare are merely continuing the long tradition here of mutual incomprehension – to every one eases amusement.. ]
lurgee
It is strange how; “adult” has come to mean; juvenile titillation, for example; “adult films” which are only watchable by adolescents. That’s not your fault of course, but it does mean that the phrase; “adult fidget spinner” is an unfortunate one to apply to any person. I find it easily amusing, even if everyone else doesn’t.
It was; “Captain Mumblefuck”, (I think that is was QoT who invented it, but it quickly caught on), so combined respect as well as disparagement – which is why it was so funny. Your; “sparkly young thing” is simple dismissive objectification. rather tedious, and assumes that your bigotry is shared by a large proportion of the electorate.
I’m not really outraged by your disdain for the positive reaction to Ardern, certainly not to the level of SHOUTING about it. More embarrassed to be sharing a comment thread with such a lumbering dinosaur. If you need a dismissive metaphor, surely you could do something with her being a casual DJ (“voters rushing to chase the pied-piper beat of a fashionable new dance track” or something like that).
Like I said, if you immediately link the term ‘adult fidget spinner’ with porn, that tells us something about you but not much more; though I’d observe it puts your ability to interpret other people’s meanings and intentions into doubt.
Plain old “Mumblefuck” on plenty of occasions, usually coupled with calls for him to resign. I think the apogee was when someone (Rhinocrates?) was complaining on one thread about use of abusive language and ranting about “Mumblefuck” on another. No self awareness, some people.
You really think continually referring to someone as “Captain Mumblefuck” can be read as showing respect? If anything, the bogus rank adds to the contempt. Instant credibility collapse.
I thought we were having an adult debate.
Oh, shit, I see how you’re going to interpret that …
Why would I poke fun at Ardern’s dablling in DJing? My target was not her and never was.
All this is in your head. Just admit you went off half-cocked (n.b. that is not a porn reference, but describes flintlock pistols misfiring) because you thought you saw something that wasn’t really there.
You don’t see the problem , nothing I’m going to type can convince you. So I can’t be bothered with this anymore: Whatever.
I don’t see how anyone okay with ‘Mumblefuck’ could object to anything I said, without being a massive hypocrite.
I can’t see how there is a problem if there isn’t a problem with ‘Mumblefuck.’
Edit – weird double post phenomenon and now the goblins won’t let me edit my first effort.
Give ’em a good thumping, Lprent. Disobedient tykes.
Care to back that up with some evidence?
I’m about as leftwing as any here.
Lurgee… Don’t know about you but I’m voting for policy.
I know the teachers at school are voting for policy as they asked me about it and I gave them the printed info on education policy.
I know the parents around the corner are voting for policy, the are interested in free tertiary education and cheaper doctors visits, clean rivers to swim in.
I know the oldies next door (both sides) are voting for policy home heating among other things.
I know the latest leaders debate had huge viewing numbers, no doubt those viewers will be voting for policy too.
I also know that people are finally understanding just how bad things are in NZ, especially since Key has exited, and rosecoloured glasses are removed.
I do know people have had a gutsfull of the old boys club and old ideas.
It’s amazing that in the darkest room, that one glimmer of light changes everything.
Analytically the numbers/dates/reoccurances etc tell a fascinating story
Muttonbird… ROFL !
That sounds great.
Can you please help me by telling me where I can find the Labour Party policy on taxation?
In particular the CGT they are talking about bringing in before the next election.
I heard a rumour that the water charges were to be on polluters and were to be spent on cleaning up rivers but since then there have been other stories about them being levied on non polluting water users such as horticultural businesses.
There also seems to be a proposal to spend the money on new roads rather than on cleaning up rivers.
Where is this material about policy documented?
Who told you horticulture didn’t produce pollution, alwyn? Check out this link to NIWA and pay particular attention to their comments about the effects of chemical runoff on water quality in rivers (and consequent loss of fish species, invertebrates etc plus increased algal, water turbidity…etc).
https://www.niwa.co.nz/our-science/freshwater/tools/kaitiaki_tools/land-use/horticulture/impacts/chemical-contamination-and-horticulture
National support loop hole tax Alwyn ….
where 4 Banks try to drive off with $2.2 Billion of Government revenue ….. 100 X more than Benefit fraud in the same year …. John Key rewarded the accountant behind it …. John Shewan
Tony Molly QC : ” the IRD’s December 2009, NZ$2.2 billion settlement with ANZ, ASB, BNZ and Westpac over structured finance tax disputes, or as he puts it: “The four major New Zealand banks’ multi-billion dollar assault on the New Zealand tax system.”
Molloy notes that the settlement saw the banks agreeing to pay 80% of what IRD said they owed, and that prior to settling the IRD had won two High Court cases, one against BNZ and the other against Westpac. He suggests the full amount IRD could have sought from the banks, if penalties were included, amounted to about NZ$2.75 billion.
“(So) effectively a gift was being made to the banks of at least three quarters of a billion dollars.”
Yet Russell described the settlement as a very good result for New Zealand taxpayers.
“The ‘taxpayers of New Zealand,’ for whom the Commissioner was arrogating the right to speak, might have differed from his view that rewarding this anti-social assault on the New Zealand economy with a gift of three quarters of a billion dollars at their expense had been a ‘very good result’.”
“It is the sort of thing Dr Goebbels might have said,” Molloy adds”. http://www.interest.co.nz/news/56209/finance-companies-collapsed-because-regulators-courts-lawyers-and-accountants-were
and the other rich free loaders … stealing from ordinary honest Nzers and other people in the world … and the NActs help them do it ….
“a New Zealand Herald investigation revealed that Apple had paid zero tax in New Zealand in the past decade, despite selling billions of dollars’ worth of products to New Zealanders.
Oxfam New Zealand Executive Director Rachael Le Mesurier said: “New Zealand and many other countries around the world are missing out on crucial tax revenue from companies like Apple; money that could be invested in education, healthcare and infrastructure…. ” https://www.oxfam.org.nz/news/us-companies-stashing-16-trillion-shore
There is enough revenue …. But National undermine it ….
You quote the Herald as saying that
“a New Zealand Herald investigation revealed that Apple had paid zero tax in New Zealand in the past decade, despite selling billions of dollars’ worth of products to New Zealanders”
There is an alternative interpretation of this story which was explained in the DomPost.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/90613870/Q-A-What-makes-Apple-NZs-tax-arrangements-unique
The problem is that although a lot of Apple goods are sold in New Zealand they don’t actually do any real business here. They completely manufacture the goods overseas, bring them here and simply sell them on. Their transfer price to the New Zealand market is just about what they sell them for.
I am not going to get into a debate about Apple’s tax affairs though. I would warn you though about what might happen if we allow Governments to arbitrarily decide what tax a multinational company should pay and what taxable income the business makes in “their” country.
The Chinese Government could simply decide that all the Fonterra sales made in China should be taxed in China. At the moment Fonterra makes nearly all of its income in New Zealand and pays its tax here. That is because there business is based here. Do you really want the Chines Government to simply decide that all Fonterra’s profit was really made in China and to slap taxes on them?
Taxation of multinational companies is a multinational problem and a standard method of allocating the profits will have to be developed and agreed by all the counties we trade with.
In other words, they are running all of their sales and distribution to NZ from offshore. So if they want to sell their physical devices from here, then they must use a local company with local storage and distribution – like everyone else does. We just need to put in proper border controls to prevent direct distribution – the way that the Chinese do.
+111
I think you will find it in the same place you would have found National’s promise of no new taxes… and then raised GST with heaviest impact on lowest earners.
Funny how so many care about their policy now. Last election they released shitloads and almost no one bothered to read it despite railing against them for not having any. Given that experience I can hardly blame them for not bothering as much with detail this time.
Funny how National suddenly thinks homelessness, housing, the environment, education and health have problems… and let us not forget alwyn, their great policy of using invisible language teachers in primary schools to improve children’s maths. Joyce has spent 9 years driving down staff and funding in Humanities in tertiary and polytechs and now they have to produce heaps of language teachers!
If you want a party with detailed policy and costing, vote Green but do not go to Labour or National websites. You will not find what you seek.
The last sentence is the only one that makes any sense.
It also conflicts with Cinny’s story about everyone voting on policy.
How can we when they won’t tell us what it is?
Your first paragraph is simply false. If you look at what was said you will find the statement was that taxes would not be increased. You, like everyone else may have interpreted it as being that each individual type of tax would not be increased. The alternative, that the total tax burden would not increase is equally valid and the one that Key said he meant and which he honoured. What does that have to do with anything, anyway? It was long, long ago and was said by someone who has retired from politics. It is about as relevant as anything David Cunliffe told us about.
I don’t think I bothered reading all of Labour’s policies last election because I never though they would be in a position to form a Government and I wasn’t going to vote for them anyway. Why waste my time? I am much more interested today because, in general, I do not believe that any Government should go for more than 3 terms. The problem is that there has to be a competent alternative which has well thought out plans. Labour has had 9 years to come up with some but they don’t seem to have anything they have actually thought through.
As far as reading the Green policies goes I think that is a waste of time. Firstly I don’t think they will have any MPs after the election and secondly, even if some miracle was to occur and they scraped back in, they won’t be in the Government. Any Government will either be National/NZF or Labour/NZF.
That would be a lie. John Key said that GST would not be raised:
He then went on to raise GST which is a regressive tax mostly affecting the poor while cutting taxes for the rich.
The problem is that there has to be a competent alternative which has well thought out plans.
Dude, you vote National who simply should never be in government because of their general psychopathy.
Except for the fact that they have which means that you’re lying again.
Sure Alwyn, no problem at all.
Here is the link to ALL of their announced policies so you may browse at your leisure. Please note… “More policy to be announced as we get closer to the election.”
http://www.labour.org.nz/policy
As well I am happy to ask at the office next time I am there, just let me know. Alternatively you could contact your local Labour Party office.
That’s all very nice but do you really think Labour’s 15% surge is about policy. Like I said earlier, to the despair of DSpare, people are simply excited because they have a new toy that looks fun to play with.
Agree
“It feels like time for a generational change because the present Government’s big failure has been housing. It waited too long to do anything to dampen the demand that sent house prices through the stratosphere and has deprived too many of the younger generation of much hope of home-ownership. The Government left it to the Reserve Bank to eventually introduce loan-to-value restrictions, and left it to Labour to utter the once-unspeakable phrase, capital gains tax…Now Labour not only plans to extend the bright line to five years, but tax negative gearing (which I hope means remove interest deductions), remove urban limits and establish a $2 billion state corporation to build houses for sale at cost to first-home seekers.”
That is from the Roughan article, and it is what will win Labour the election.
Getting rid of interest deductibility is an excellent idea, and one which I have advocated myself in many a comment; (though I´m not sure if that is what is meant by ¨taxing negative gearing¨).
OR it shows how much we have become voters who want to be on the “winning” team and the polls direct us to who that will be. I still advocate abolition of polls from 3 months prior to an election. We might force our media to educate us rather than pontificate
That’s a bad sign. Clearly Roughan thinks such a government can be relied on to largely maintain the status quo.
Agreed AB. A powerfully bad sign what Roughan thinks. Reckon I’ll just not vote. Much wiser to connive in present misery than risk disappointment.
Hey North. Putting words in my mouth there. I don’t advocate disengagement at all. I like Ardern and hope she is PM for three terms. I just don’t trust Roughan and I have a pretty clear picture of how he will start sniping away at a new government.
That’s easily solved by Jacinda… she just gets Roughan to write her biography as well.
Better vote Green if you want real change.
LOVE the Greens
I’ll almost certainly vote Green this time, because I don’t want them falling under 5%.
Because they will. There will be a slight lean leftward but nothing fundamentally will change.
I guess it’s a case of… if you can’t beat em join em.
They are so fickle.
Large 1.8 tonne WW2 bomb found right next to Germany’s gold reserves.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-frankfurt-evacuation/huge-ww2-bomb-to-be-defused-close-to-german-gold-reserves-idUSKCN1BB2MH
“The Bundesbank headquarters, less than 600 meters from the location of the bomb, stores 1,710 tonnes of gold underground, around half the country’s reserves.
“We have never defused a bomb of this size,” bomb disposal expert Rene Bennert told Reuters, adding that it had been damaged on impact when it was dropped between 1943 and 1945.
Airspace for 1.5 kilometers around the bomb site will also be closed.”
Really looking forward to the Health Debate on the Nation this morning.
Coleman spins the same old crap everytime, it’s almost worthy of a bingo board.
Hand picked stats followed by blaming a government from nine years ago, or blaming hospital health boards, blame blame, that’s how coleman rolls, he offers no hope.
NZ Health sector is seriously broken we hear so many stories about it, stretched services, over worked staff, equipment from bunnings, people suffering and dying due to an over burdened system.
Any comment on the hospital changes in westport coleman? Staggering that half the population of that town is attending protests against it.
Cinny
I can’t see a link on the Newshub/ Nation site, may check again at 9:30 to see if it is livestreamed (no TV unless I go visiting which mightn’t be appreciated this early on a Saturday morning). Hopefully, someone (probably Clark) asks Coleman about this:
https://www.odt.co.nz/news/election-2017/no-money-hospital
And this from yesterday:
https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2017/09/01/media-statement-form-waikato-dhb-member-dhb-deficit-is-real-it-cannot-all-be-saved-away-minister-coleman/
Also, there was a good Campbell piece on the health system a couple of days ago which I haven’t seen discussed here (though I might of missed it):
http://gordoncampbell.scoop.co.nz/2017/08/31/gordon-campbell-on-the-funding-crisis-in-the-health-system/
I missed the start, but it is on now – Clark vs Coleman (Gower moderating, but seeming more at home in studio than hall):
http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/shows.html
Cheers for the link for the article DSpare, much appreciated.
Laila summed it up beautifully on the panel, Compassion v’s Complacency
The link for the full debate is up now
http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/shows/2017/09/health-debate-jonathan-coleman-vs-david-clark.html
Here’s the link for the panel discussion
http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/shows/2017/09/panel-heather-roy-and-laila-harre.html
Cinny
Thanks for the panel discussion link, I turned off after the debate. Had caughtup on the starting few minutes of the debate already, but good to get the timecode for Gowers smirk to the camera (at 14:55) after his; “good ideas don’t cost money” line. That really sums up his style of trying to insert his own ego into the story, which was further on display in the panel discussion.
I thought Harre looked a bit out of practice and got talked over a bit by others more used to speaking in soundbites. She did have interesting things to say that’d better suit a longer speech format.
Heather Roy was dangerously plausible. And while Newshub are happy to let us know she was a; “former Associate Health Minister”, this does not seem to be accuarate. She was a minister (& associate minister) outside cabinet in Key’s second term, but not for health. Later, she was demoted and for one year made the ACT party spokesperson for health (amongst other things). I personally wish that a political news program during an election would have a greater regard for accuracy.
Roy is currently chair if the pharmaceutical lobby group; Medicines New Zealand , who had this to say in one of their press releases:
http://www.medicinesnz.co.nz/news/media-releases/medicines-new-zealand-has-never-threatened-new-zealand/
Thank you again Dspare for the info, I knew I had heard her name somewhere else before, so she’s a lobbist, explains her ACT outlook.
Cheers for the link
Jonathan Coleman could not keep his head up strait its because he knows that everything in his scripted statements are a fascicle lies.
Lisa and Paddy are finally treating all there host with a unbiased manner which is the way we should demand that all our media reports our news.
And that story on children in state care you could see the people who were interviewed that were in the state care were devastated by what they experienced
while in state care you can see it in there eyes to.
This is one of the reason why I say that the state is to blame for all the gangs in OUR
country . One other reason is state targeted unemployment by killing of our union.
Union are designed to protect the vulnerable people whom do not no how to negotiate a fair deal for there employment.These people would and are being ripped off because unions have been shut down and demonized by the neo- liberals . Gangs are a product of our society gangs are a infection in our society which could infect any of our youth in many ways!!!!!!.
So lets come up with policy’s to cure this infection lets reward people who are in our justice system to stay out of jail . Lets reward employers to train employ and help give them self esteem self worth and a work culture a life worth living for
The carrot always works beter than the stick it is a much more intelligent humane and cost effective way to cure our society illnesses using policy’s based on this method.
We haven’t heard half the stories. I’ve said it here before but our entire public health system is in such a state and so chronically underfunded, it is now relying heavily on goodwill. Diabetes podiatric services, for example, are in dire need. Some DHBs can’t even afford to purchase consumables and basic equipment, and because of the resourcing issues the system cannot cope with the demand. Intervention is not happening early enough and diabetes-related amputation rates, for example, are increasing.
If fat is now back. Can we buy chip cooked in lard, tallow, or whatever. These oils they use now just make people fatter. Chips was a filling meal before the oil revolution.
You won’t be able to any time soon. Science progresses one death at a time, but the social sciences are even slower. Nothing to stop you using lard, dripping and butter for your home cooking, though – roast potatoes cooked with lard or dripping are awesome.
yet it costs the same as butter… …there’s a glut and it costs a bomb! weird economics.
Duck fat. Oòooo la la
Mais oui.
C’est magnifique.
Its healthier than that disgusting canola.
yeah, free market enforced canola monopoly care of neolibs.
“If fat is now back. Can we buy chip cooked in lard, tallow, or whatever. These oils they use now just make people fatter. Chips was a filling meal before the oil revolution.”
Depends on how much you eat over time. The issue is insulin resistance (one of the underlying reasons for heart disease, stroke, diabetes etc), and this naturally increases over time so the older you get and the more refined carbohydrates you’ve been eating the less refined carbs it takes to push insulin resistance further.
I’d have my chips fried in fat, but I wouldn’t rely on them for a meal that often.
Agreed. Lard is much more consistent than Canola, tastewise. I believe that we like consistency, our bodies want to be able to get a nutrient and so find the taste that gave them that nutrient. But as foods become commodities, they can taste the same but come from a totally different nutrient niche. So our bodies are forced to eat more to find again the same amount of nutrient. It’s pregnant mothers eating cravings. Health food is locally sourced, not some industrial canola. So even if it’s better for us, it ain’t cos it’s making us fatter.
Hope this link works…should show number of election debate viewers compared with other years
https://mobile.twitter.com/bryce_edwards/status/903468025369698304
Interesting though this years count was fro TV1 where previous figures from Nielsen. Does it matter. Actually, how did TV1 know I was watching?
Big Brother knows everything.
If you had looked outside you would have seen Nicky Hager peering in the window. I suggest you pull the curtains in future.
You are mixing your something-or-others. Nicky Hager is not Big brother 😉
He’s to Mandy 😉
They just look it up on wikileaks … hot off five eyes
China’s fooling itself.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/australia/96429007/pms-blah-blah-blahing-show-australia-is-a-second-class-citizen-chinese-newspaper
NK fires and detonated a nuke in outerspace, would cause a economic depression.
China needs to remove those nukes, like USSR from Cuba, NK is its sphere of influence and makes us all concerned about Chinese threat to the world.
Grow up China!
NK is full of people who want change, they get their hands on the means to cause collapse of NK, like it isn’t already! It’s not going to bother them if a global depression ensues. All it takes is Kim to put a nuke on a missile any it’s a lottery.
Do you think the tension would be considerably lessened if the United States and its vassal countries stopped carrying out the ceaseless provocations on the border?
How do you think the United Kingdom, for instance, would react if an aggressive nuclear power staged “war games” in the Bristol Channel with half a million troops?
Or flying nuclear capable aircraft over your country on a regular basis.
Ceaseless provocations. Good catch.
Provocative? Gulags. Forced Starvation. S.Korea look north and see their relatives…
We should not cease until regime change, oh and more pointedly, they sign a peace treaty bringing the Korean war to an end. Forgot that too.
David Clark was very good in the discussion on the Nation this morning. He has only been in the Health role for a few months, since Annette King stepped down from it, but he is clearly on top of the issues. His background is as a Treasury economist but also a Presbyterian minister. I hear he also has a large and efficient electorate organisation in Dunedin North and has been campaigning on the shocking Government neglect of Dunedin hospital for a long time. He would be a very competent Minister of Health and wouldn’t run away from the difficult issues like the current one.
Ethica
Clark was good, Coleman seemed a bit rattled (or maybe; ironically, had a cold – something was off with his voice anyway), but he’s never been good at fronting up to the camera. One thing you missed about Clark’s history is that he was Associate Spokesperson for Health from 2013 until March of this year when he took over from King ; so he has the depth of knowledge to back up his new role. The link for the debate is now here:
http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/shows/2017/09/health-debate-jonathan-coleman-vs-david-clark.html
The interventions Clark was talking about seemed a bit top down to me. Three of the guys I started deepsea fishing with took their own lives – I suspect the causes were more socioeconomic than psychological or neurological. In our society the expectation is that men shall work and buy a home – in a society with 11% unemployment, significant housing inflation, and wage suppression from cheap migrant labour, this expectation is increasingly unachievable. Life in the precariat is not conducive to achieving eudaemonia.
the socioeconomic becomes psychological and if untreated becomes neurological.
at the end of the day fear of not being able to provide, of not being able to give your family a decent stable live is still fear or anxiety if you rather call it that way, and that is deeply psychological. Also many that are highly successful are often also very high strung, and we all know that the hardest healthcare to get in this country is mental healthcare. Even if you have the several hundred dollar a week it would cost you to see a Doctor. Not everyone that commits suicide starts out with a nicely diagnosed mental illness. I think for men socioeconomic reasons are more often then not the trigger to mental illness.
Agreed – I saw an attempted suicide when I took my father in to casualty for a broken arm a few months back. Economic factors were not insignificant in her life either.
Please, someone, tell me I misheard!
The 12 o’clock news reported that Bill is throwing more money at the pest eradication programme and (this is what I heard) the total eradication of pests is ahead of schedule and will be complete in 2048, two years early!
Hell’s bell – are we meant to swallow this bullshit?
@Tony Veitch (not etc)
I think we are expected to swallow this rat. Indeed I believe it is a brilliant Malthusian recipe for a couple of problems.
The poor will be forced to get off their butts /sarc. and do something, ie to go and trap rats, and recipes and training will be given in how to hygenically prepare and cook rats with the appropriate herbs and spices.
Alt restaurants will spring up supplying this delicacy and national trials will be televised to find the most way-out raving chef and recipe. A TV show will be made showing the best, most talented rat-catchers, admiringly displaying their prowess and process from hole to bowl of juicy stew.
Don’t under-estimate Gnashional. They make their money from food obtained from the grassroots, and their whole intellect and intelligence is centred down there. They may be rats but specially cunning, so there never will be a problem of them getting caught and ending up in a bowl, though they might be drawn to the lights and fame in the Hollywood Bowl. But there be dragons, as well as rats.
The countries where rats are on the menu
Probably just a bone thrown to a particularly corrupt crony.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/96431698/national-boosts-predator-free-campaign-by-69m
I see Jacinda highlighted the importance of her “values” in the first leaders debate, to which English responded, “people can’t go shopping with your values.”
I think it’s important as voters (and especially for those from the left) we delve a little deeper into her values.
Here are a few questions we should be asking about her values.
What does maintaining a surplus while rejecting increasing core benefit rates imply about her values?
What does implementing a flat regional fuel tax, hitting lower income households the hardest, akin to GST (opposed to utilizing progressive income tax) imply about her values?
What does Labour’s policy of building 10,000 homes a year, yet only a 1000 state homes (when we clearly require more) say about her values?
At a time when the bottom end is doing it hard meanwhile CEO salaries are outrageously high. What does her rejection to increase the top tax rate say about her values?
Although Labour are a party that believes in full employment, what does her unemployment target of 4% imply about her values?
Do Labour, National and NZF have written values?
Here are National’s: https://www.national.org.nz/our-values
It is a confused message…
“Our Values
Less debt, more jobs, strong stable government”
Those are not actually values.
The confused confuse the confused – Confusius.
do be do be do – Sinatra
Yes for Labour. The last ones I was involved with would have been at the conference in 2012? The one in Christchurch. They will be online somewhere.
NZF probably. They keep referring to it in their conferences when discussing remits.
@ Tracey
I find a party’s actions (or in this case policy, their stated actions) better indicates what they truly value.
Agree.
I’m with you there The Chairman, that’s why I am voing for the Green Party to keep Labour honest – they are the only viable party which will.
Going off the last poll, the Greens will be lucky to get over the line. They tend to poll higher than what they get on election day.
And if Labour continue to grow their support, I have a feeling the Greens will be shut out.
The Green at 15% when Labour was at 24% spoke volumes. I agree Greens poll higher than on the day. I do not know if this was the case when the Greens were first getting in to Parliament?
While some is natural return to Labour of disgruntled. But some of Labour’s strategy to bleed as much as they can may yet backfire if Greens get less than 5%. The “answer” would be to assist Greens to get a seat but that is not going to happen.
Maybe, but not likely, Turei knicks te Tai Tonga. 😉
Despite the Green’s current polling, left voters need to snap out of falling for our new cult of personality, look and question the values (my post at 9) Labour are revealing, and decide if they merely want a change of Government or do they want a Government that will do more?
John Armstrong asks, “What on earth does National do now? It is now crisis time in the governing party’s camp, pure and simple. National’s election campaign strategy is in desperate need of a rethink …”
Well John, National needs to invent a time machine, take the world back years, get brain and heart transplants and work from there.
A rethink of the election campaign strategy may be a desperate need but the far more desperate need was years ago.
Well John, they do not know how to operate other than to lie and dupe fellows like you to spread their lies. What do you propose they do?
“And Labour diehards with a long memory are starting to whisper the name David Lange and the year 1984.
That’s the last time they truly felt this buzz and momentum for a leader who went on to be the PM.”
Is that a happy memory or a subtle Garner dig at Labour and neoliberal dreams of change??
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/96359181
It was a mixed article. The headline did not really convey the gist of his story. BUT it served an editor’s purpose of making it seem like Labour are bad.
I must confess I tried not clicking on it all morning as I saw it climbing up the Herald ‘chart’ of popular stories, but…Garner…who can resist..but yeah, the article was totally flat after the promise of outrage in the heading.
It was practically pro-Labour but you wouldn’t have known from the headline.
It was a good reminder about National’s no increase in taxes promise that saw GST go up
Bang on, tracey.
Another nail, poll this week in the local paper asks the question “Has Prime Minister Bill English done enough to get your vote?” Yes 51%, No 49%
http://www.scene.co.nz
This is Queenstown, last election National got 63% of the vote here, and if you add in the Cons it goes to 67%. So at least 12 point swing away from the dills
Damn I would have voted in that…
Larry King, not awed by Game of Thrones star
Does beg the question here though for progressives and people on the left. Prison reform – why are we not hearing about it?
The Greens have this http://www.greens.org.nz/sites/default/files/Justice%20Policy.pdf
Labour not so much – http://www.labour.org.nz/search_results?cx=004900272430260552334%3A1tkq9uj3igu&cof=FORID%3A11&q=justice
Not a bad piece by Andrew “I lost my job in coup” Little, that tops the list. Forget the link at the end of Andrew “I lost my job in coup” Little piece, does not work.
So prison reform, I would have thought with the Kelvin Davis all up in Aussies face their justice policy, with what 28 days or so, that it would be out by now.
Just so we clear the Tory’s have a justice policy all over the place, and verging on utter incoherence. With no prison reform. Plus as an added bonus, the usual attacks on the weakest in society as a center piece, coupled with failed polices discredited by both the left and the right. https://www.national.org.nz/national_s_plan_for_serious_young_offenders
Oh FFS.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/96434845/act-says-it-will-give-schools-20k-more-per-teacher-if-they-abandon-union-contracts
Pretty sure that’s illegal as it goes against Freedom of Association, freedom to negotiate and probably against several articles in the BORA.
But, hey, we can’t really expect anything else from the ACT Party – the party of freedom for rich people and no one else.
Against Empathy
Short video at link.
He may have some valid points. Will have to wait and see once he publishes his book.
Addendum: Effective Altruism
Thanks for that; I went on to read a little more by Paul Bloom.
If you haven’t read it yet, try this link: http://bostonreview.net/forum/paul-bloom-against-empathy (September 10, 2014). In it, he makes well-considered points supported by science when possible. I was pleasantly surprised to see the familiar name of Matthieu Ricard pop up too in regard to scientific research into compassion (and meditation).
From my semi-infrequently updated blog. Might be some formatting glitches.
https://potentialhumanist.blogspot.co.nz/2017/09/how-does-labour-win-election-strategic.html
With all the water that has passed under the bridge in the last month or so of New Zealand’s election campaign (and it’s been a torrent), I thought I’d offer some strategic insight if I was in the captain’s seat looking change the government and offer New Zealand a genuine progressive alternative to the last nine years of selfish soul-crushing neoliberalism. This strategy will be brief and not necessarily analyse in depth parties, or policies. Many others have done this so I wouldn’t be offering anything new. I’m by no means an expert of New Zealand politics, but I read about it a lot. This is based entirely on where things are now, and what’s currently on the table. I’ve looked at voting data from the previous election and compared it with more recent data.
So what do we know so far?:
— National’s support under Bill English is slowly eroding. The emphasis being slowly. They are no longer at the dizzying Key era heights of 47% polling. However they have still regularly been in the mid-to-low 40s. That’s not a bad place for them to be in, and governments can still be formed on those numbers. But inevitably they will need a coalition partner. The Labour leadership change might entice some centrist voters back from National, especially middle-class and educated women, and some might switch to Labour. The trend: a slow leak, but not necessarily in a dire position thus far. The latest Colmar Brunton poll that put National at 40%, 3 points below Labour, can’t be taken as a done and dusted sign. However, if the current trend continues I think this is where the result might settle. This is unless, they do something chronic which could see them dip into the 30s, but not by much.
—Labour’s rising star also must be taken with a grain of salt for two reasons. In order for a strong result they need those young, poorer, and non-voting types to actually turn up or the flashy gimmicks will all be a waste. Despite the latest poll that has them just in front, National could pip them at the post if they get their voters mobilised because of the threat of losing out on the coveted fourth term. But secondly, and more importantly, the need to adhere assiduously to the strategic importance of the Green Party as a valuable support partner. They signed the memorandum of understanding with the goal of changing the government to a real progressive alternative. The data from Horizon released this week suggested that 70% of voters who have switched to Labour have done so on the basis of Labour’s new leadership rather than the Green Party’s own internal strife. A little bit of switching was always expected, but if Labour starts sending the message that it no longer needs the Greens they risk losing this partner if they fall below the 5% threshold. Of course they will be flirting with the idea of New Zealand First, but strategically speaking the more coalition options the better. New Zealand First are a risk: they could join a Labour government that shuts out the Greens like 2005, or they could choose to support National. The point is, if you are someone looking for a strong progressive government, New Zealand First are not reliable in the same way that the Greens are. To me, a Labour-New Zealand First government is more tolerable than a National-New Zealand First Government (with or without the Green Party in Parliament). Even if Labour are still looking towards Winston and co., it would be strategically unwise for them to strangle the Greens out of Parliament as they could offer supply and confidence without being in coalition.
—Which brings me to the next party that Labour needs for a viable progressive coalition: the Māori Party. Party President Tokoroirangi Morgan has suggested that the party, on advice from members and constituents is open to working with Labour again. This certainly works well with kaupapa Māori of always having a seat at the table. On current polling the party still needs electorate seats to remain in Parliament. Labour has suggested it wants to hold all Māori seats, which is a dangerous strategy, because National has proven time and time again the importance of coalition partners. Labour seems to forget it is entitled to seats based on the party vote (unless of course you are a minor party that has a good chance of winning an electorate seat). If the Māori party could hang on to a couple of seats that would be strategically beneficial for Labour.
So what does all this mean? Well here are some things if I was Jacinda Ardern I would be thinking about with regards to forming a government on current number, as well as my prediction.
Here’s where I see the number’s settling. Below I will offer a bit more explanation as well as some basic MMP strategy.
–>
Party vote (%) Electorate seats List seats Total seats
Labour 42.5 29 23 52
National 39.5 39 9 48
NZ First 9 0 11 11
Green 6 0 7 7
TOP 1.5 0 0 0
Māori 1 2 0 2
ACT 0.5 1 0 1
United Future 0 0 0 0
100 71 50 121
I know there’s probably a certain degree of optimism, and therefore some bias, but I have tried to generous to even the right block parties.
The electorate seats here are based on my belief that Labour can win back the Maungakiekie, Ohāriu, and Christchurch Central. United Future is at a loss without Dunne, and National voters in Epsom smart enough to give ACT the tick. New Zealand First will pass the Greens as the third largest party, and the Greens themselves will just hang in there. On current polling in the Māori electorates, if Te Ururoa Flavell can hang on to Waiariki, and if Howie Tamati can pick up Te Tai Hauāuru from Labour, then that’s two seats Labour ought to take advantage of. Given these numbers Labour can put together what I believe can be a working coalition of Labour, Greens, and Māori to provide a one seat majority of 61. The remaining parties would add up to 60. In this scenario New Zealand first could offer confidence and supply. This also means National’s chances of coalition forming are seriously diminished because not only would they be the second largest party (Winston goes to the largest first), a coalition with ACT seems unworkable.
If Labour was serious about using MMP to its utmost advantage it would have to think like National. It needs coalition partners. If too many Green voters jump to Labour, say 1-2 %, it will make the Labour-New Zealand First scenario inevitable. To anyone putting together a real progressive coalition this is massive disappointment, as the Green Party wouldn’t even be in Parliament as a cross-bench or confidence and supply party. Labour can guarantee support partners by allowing the Māori party to retain its current numbers and one other radical strategy: withdraw Grant Robertson from Wellington Central to guarantee the Green Party an electorate seat in the event they fall below the 5% threshold. This is of course a risky strategy and the backlash from National and the media would be phenomenal. Electorate deals are acceptable for National but not Labour would be the message. However, I see the probability of both Labour and Robertson giving this seat to the Greens (even given its strategic value) as a snowball’s change in hell.
Whatever happens, Labour needs to be pragmatic rather than attempting to have its cake and eat it too. Don’t campaign at the expense of allies, because it’s going to be a tight one.
Post script: Here’s the “Wellington Central” strategy numbers adjusted from the above table.
Party vote (%) Electorate seats List seats Total seats
Labour 44 28 26 54
National 39.5 39 9 48
NZ First 9 0 11 11
Green 4.5 1 4 5
TOP 1.5 0 0 0
Māori 1 2 0 2
ACT 0.5 1 0 1
United Future 0 0 0 0
100 71 50 121
That’s impressive, Brendan. Your research and conclusions are to be admired.
— National’s support under Bill English is slowly eroding. The emphasis being slowly. They are no longer at the dizzying Key era heights of 47% polling.
Thats unfair on Bill, it was eroding under Key and Key was savvy enough to get out before too many started to vocalise that fact. I say poor Bill. nice man.
David Seymour wants to give private schools 50% of the per-pupil State funding to private schools. I’ll agree to that if the private schools give 50% of their tuition fees to their nearest state school.
Private schools want it both ways – they want to be sort of state integrated so they can get state money but not enough state integrated so that they have to do without the resources that they get through making parents pay through the nose.
Private school parents shouldn’t get a hand out from the state when they chose to send their kids to private school. They put a burden on the state system by not contributing to the state system through their social capital – they shouldn’t be able to walk away and get funded for it. Walking away should come at a cost and high private school fees are that cost.
But there is a catch: “The ACT Party says it will give schools nearly $1 billion more, so long as they abandon national union contracts.”
Hope that they don’t give on Union. Individual contracts are cruel.
Seymour’s thinking is perfect Act thinking – people will do anything for money including not be in unions.
If being paid a lot inevitably meant people improved, tried harder and excellence came, how come the Warriors are so often so poor?
John Armstrong asks, “What on earth does National do now
I think Joyce will do a massive u turn on his, no personal tax cuts this election, pledge.
I think he has done that already.
They’ve ditched further tax cuts I reckon, they’ve realised there’s no appetite for them and in fact NZers have cottoned on to the whole tax cuts equal degraded government services trick that National has been pulling all these years.
If they had any morals they’d go quietly into that good night.
Being the Gnats, Bill may disappear in a frenzy of backstabbing.
The thing to fear is a Mandelson-like revenant, the Key to National’s long and inglorious kleptocratic misrule, suddenly standing where Barclay once sat.
What we on the Left need to be aware is that
a wounded National Party is a dangerous beast.
They will try to “white ant ” Jacinda by finding a weak inside link.
Bill will be “damning her with faint praise”
or, more likely, causticly dripping mantras which will rain on her parade.
e.g. “only doing one event a day” (can’t keep up?)
Pressure on perceived points of public concern. ” Tax.”
Labour now needs to ask what areas Bill is not coping with, and use that knowledge.
Keeping the tide running in for us is crucial. Let’s do this.!!
Labour now needs to ask what areas Bill is not coping with, and use that knowledge.
In many of the sciences a positive has to be balanced by a negative. For example in the planet’s atmosphere, an intense high pressure system will be balanced by an adjacent deep depression. Climate Change is causing these two extremes to become even more extreme but that is another story. Imo, it’s an hypothesis which can also be applied to politics.
To be relentlessly positive is fine but in order to balance out the equation the political party – and in particular it’s leader – must also address the negatives associated with it’s opposition political party or parties. Jacinda and her senior Labour MPs have to also constantly point out the weaknesses and the wrong footed actions of their opposite numbers. A failure to do so will eventually tilt the balance back in favour of National.
“Only doing one event a day”, was coined by National Party embedded journalist Stacey Kirk at the end of the week and it was plainly false because I know Ardern did three that day.
It looks like they are trawling their partisan media allies and repeating what they say in the next stand up. This manifested itself with Bingles attacking the Labour machine today (instead of the leader, specifically) using the same line.
Another criticism of Ardern by the National Party aligned media in Henry Cooke, Stacey Kirk, Jo Moir, Tracey Watkins, Claire Trevett, and Audrey Young is that she only goes to schools where hard questions won’t be asked.
Funny then that Bingles has done Whangarei Boys High, a sports institute, and an Ocean sports club in consecutive days. Is the Nat machine taking its cue off their media friends and the Labour Party?
I read so often of teachers brainwashing kids and how politics should not intrude into schools.
Why are school boards of trustees allowing their schools to be used for politicians to push their barrow?
Would the new buildings being promised for Whangarei Boys High School not come about if their board had said to the Prime Minister, “thanks for the needed buildings, we don’t need a big announcement, put it in a letter, we’ll tell our community about it and how grateful we are” ?
There’s no byline on this article but I did enjoy that Jonathan Coleman aka, Dr Death, was referred to as ‘National’s heath spokesperson’.
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political/338571/national-labour-clash-over-rising-elective-surgeries
Also, as is the way with the National Party and their pollster, Dr Death threw the same numbers around which mean nothing without reference. He says there’s 50,000 more operations a year but, since when?
And what sort of operations Muttonbird? National have been shameless at counting the most basic procedures while cutting back on all the harder stuff.
I don’t know enough about health but I do know the Nats use stats to promote themselves rather than to help ordinary people.
I loved that Coleman said twice in a row in answer to two different questions “after the election – if we’re elected”…
Those words weren’t in their lexicon 4 weeks ago.
Bout bloody time!
ROFL that’s his go to line, don’t forget the appointments lmfao. Was cracking up this morning hearing him say it over and over again, it’s all he’s got, uses it in Parliament repeatedly. Just did a search on Parliament and his go to line.. check out the result lolololz Results 1-10 of 9536 for 50,000 more operations
https://www.parliament.nz/en/site-search?term=50%2C000++more+operations
See Eglish
She’s stardust. You know who. The one who’s name they dare not speak.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11916100
We all are made of stardust: https://www.space.com/35276-humans-made-of-stardust-galaxy-life-elements.html
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brodifacoum#Toxicology
Here is a balanced view of the protest in nelson today
Anyone feel like nailing colours to the mast with some predictions, this far out?
NAT – 42%
LAB – 39%
NZ1 – 8%
GRE – 6%
TOP – 2%
MAO – 1.5% (With electorate win(s))
MAN – 0.5% (With electorate win)
ACT – 0.5% (With electorate win)
UNF – 0.5%
Aren’t you being a tad optimistic with respect to United Future?
Labour/Greens/Māori Party is just 2 seats adrift of a bare majority in tonight’s Reid Research/Newshub poll.
That’s encouraging but from what I saw last week Marama Fox was not interested in working with Labour. She still has Stockholm syndrome after being slave to National for all these years.