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6:00 am, July 3rd, 2023 - 85 comments
Categories: open mike -
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If you like an indepth analysis to peruse over your morning cuppa T try this:
https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2023/07/03/15-weeks-until-2023-election-greens-act-maori-party-ones-got-watch/
It's a rare glimpse of Bomber in thoughtful mode (as opposed to the usual shoot first, think later). I'm surprised he expects ACT to come in at 17% – but look at the total right vote indicator. Nat + ACT = 50%. And that's not counting all the ultra-right rabble votes. So he expects floating voters to firm up on the right side of the line.
Since he expects NZF to win Northland, he's going for Luxon forming a govt (without explicitly saying so). However he also indicates a TOP win in Ilam, so he rates the protest vote factor as decisive & I get the impression that this assumption guides his entire analysis. He could be right! Remember 30 years ago?
Act might not hit 17%, but it is looking like they are going to do pretty damn good, better than the Greens for sure….which mainly comes down to the sad fact that Seymour seems to actually understand how to do politics quite well…and the Greens don't….which is strange because it isn't really rocket science.
Because he's hunting in the middle ground. Media framing puts him to the right of National due to the residual effect of antique political ideology. That stuff is influential, but more on a partisan basis than ecosystemic.
For a political ideology to get traction in the new millennium context, it'll have to be based on social darwinism – by which I don't mean any form that has taken in the past (irrelevant) but how folks are organically affected by evolution. How that produces sociopolitical psychology driving group psychodynamics, I mean.
Academics are slowly getting their heads around this view. Sociobiology was long anathema despite being an academic intellectual arena, but the last three decades has produced considerable development. The guts so far is that ya gotta blend collaboration with competition. Tough for those addicted to the binary – must use paradox & cognitive dissonance to liberate them from their mental prison!
It's why I sent a submission several years ago to the parliamentary reform process. As far as I know there's an upper house in parliament unused since it became historically redundant. I suggested using it for consensus politics. I expected everyone to be too stupid to agree, of course.
Seymour has learned to dog whistle the racists, gun lobby,fascists ,luddite anti vax conspiracy theorists, With out the Trump Narcissist excesses
Don't forget speed limits….talk about populist
Bomber is about the closest to a 60s/70s “Gonzo” style writer currently practicing in AO/NZ. He keeps some appalling company these days with his side ventures and greybeard hangers on, still cuts and pastes, and just as I’m ready to delete TDB, Mr Bombastic comes up with a “scoop” or a rather different skew from the plodders & insipid whimpy pundits.
Some of his current commenters seem to need significant medical help but hey, the internet has space for everyone…
Yeah his commenters often seem like a cross between a kindergarten & a zoo. Agree also re his skew on things often providing a useful dimension to the political mix but more often failing to do so…
True Tiger…..Bomber seems intent on constructing a scenario where Labour and the Greens lose
I really cannont credit a claim that Shane Jones will win Northland. He's been decisively defeated in Northern electorates on multiple occasions.
Unless Bradbury has some undisclosed polling evidence to support him – it sounds like wishful thinking to me.
The Standard doesn’t rely on income from annoying ads that clutter & pollute the site, unlike TDB and so many other (political) NZ blog sites. Their model is similar to that of MSM. Make of that what you will.
Sorry – can't see the relevance of this comment? Did it get misplaced, or am I missing something?
I take it as meaning that ad revenue relies on numbers coming to the site, so click bait is part of how TDB is and this may influence content and presentation of content.
I can’t see how Shane Jones is going to get any votes off National’s Grant McCallum.
McCallum’s online ads assure us he’s going to sort out crime in Northland, fix our roads, have all kids do well at school and do all this other stuff which generally has him the next big thing since Jesus Christ.
Should be grateful I guess to be so well-served – Jones considers himself to be God.
it sounds like wishful thinking to me
Me too. Winning would require a combination of anti-Nat groundswell plus Shane morphing into someone else – unless Winston pulls magic rabbit out of hat…
I could (just) credit Winston pulling it off if he was standing.
But, Jones…. no.
Mr Jones is not widely admired in the Far North, or mid North, even though NZ First Provincial Growth Fund project outcomes up here are quite liked–State Highway roundabouts, bridges, new wharves in tiny settlements, a significant business park near Kaikohe, rail extensions and freight depots etc. They are not seen as linked to Shane however.
A Bomber wish indeed that one.
I enjoyed the read from Bradbury you linked to Dennis. .
gotta keep them brain cells ticking over in this wintry weather…
I second that Dennis, good link. I wonder if it's a good idea for those who read tdb to link the 'hinged' posts like that one. I enjoy most of them but find the vitriolic rants a real turn off.
It is a pity that the author of the link doesn't understand the way seats are allocated.
If TPM were to get 3.9% of the vote, and wins 4 electorates as he seems to be predicting there will not be an overhang in the House.
Decrepit ancient dude gets stroppy again:
I recall getting a copy of that vinyl at a second-hand shop – wasn't much impressed tho. Did buy Raw Power brand-new due to the rave review in Rollingstone & liked his stance & style then awhile. Rebels get traction via resonance, and fast rock always worked better for males of the species. Ultimately, however, you need more nuance…
Iggy rules…end of story..
He stands head and shoulders above the music industry rabble..both past and current..
Our neocolonial education system is meant to produce new generations sufficiently employable to keep the capitalist system going. The brainwashing process endures. South Korea does that more intensively:
Too stressed-out to screw…
I am surprised at the lack of comment on National's cry of "Take NZ back again"
It sounds very like Trump's cry of "Make America great again"
Take NZ(Aotearoa) "back" from whom???? Lefties /Maori???? Back to where???
Good Morn Patricia. They would take us back to the (very) bad old days of the late 1980s/and 90's. NZ will be again stuffed for generations. Also see my link below. I am gobsmacked at their lies….
Anyway. We must fight hard to stop them. Good on you !
Stolen from Boris's "Take Back Control" Brexit propaganda. For exactly the same reasons, and appealing to exactly the same sentiments.
Isn't it "get New Zealand back on track"
Where have you got "Take NZ back again" from Patricia?
James…What a slip lol Reading what I thought they meant!! Now…..
Well this sound great ! Electrify NZ ! Sign me up. Sadly….though, its just some National party greenwash BS. I truly dont know if they are being Ironic,cynical, or just their usual false/lying shit. Possibly all of.
Share your humerous points … just pushing more you know what !!
I think the Greens need to take a leaf out of Winston's book. Look at the concessions he was able to obtain playing one party off against the other.
I highly doubt the Greens would get much traction on economics in a relationship with National. But, they could probably get a lot of leverage in the environmental area. And the party name would suggest that is what the Greens are mainly about. Right?
[TheStandard: A moderator moved this comment to Open Mike as being off topic or irrelevant in the post it was made in. Be more careful in future.]
This is the same kind of faux naive derail as you did on the previous GP policy post. I will address your first comment over there but I’m not going to let you run derail lines. I’m putting you in premod. Feel free to ask questions about the boundaries.
Nah, too shallow. To be authentic, they need to represent the broader Green movement accurately. The media have been full of stories about the Green ethos escalating influence all over the world the past 30 years. Green parliamentarians never anchor their initiatives in this context. If they did, their influence would escalate.
Ecosystemic relations evolve via such natural resonance. Democracy seems to prevent Greens attuning to nature in their political niche, as if it were an alien system imposed as a form of social control. Oh, guess what?
Yes it is interesting to speculate what The Greens might bring to an arrangement with a party other than Labour.
I rate The Greens from a residual point of view on their environmental stance, possibly based on sentiment
The Greens for me is in 'premod' for the anti woman stance with self ID.
I find pieces that I am uncomfortable with in the wealth tax and the new housing ideas. I find the allowance for extra storeys a bit odd when many towns/cities have large areas of unused/underused land within the 15-20min transport links. It comes down to better planning initiatives to encourage better land use more quickly. I don't think your average hard working family in the suburbs should be penalised by having a 6 storey block plonked next door because the city has not done its job or it is easier pickings for developers.
The Renters initiatives I am supportive of.
Kudos though for The Greens for having policies out there.
If this is indeed the case, how on earth could anyone ever, ever vote for the Natz?
What does the National party name suggest?
Nationalisation?
Nationalism?
Yes, I was wondering the same. I don't think I have said anything out of line, and have certainly had no comments to that.
[TheStandard: A moderator moved this comment to Open Mike as being off topic or irrelevant in the post it was made in. Be more careful in future.]
TS you have done nothing out of line in my view and i value your contributions and thank you for sticking with us.
I like that you have a more rounded view than what many believe the people of the right have.
As to your views which can be 'different' I think isn't it better to have them expressed here than having a Labour parliamentary candidate stumble on a question at a public meeting?
Please let us welcome diverse views……echo chambers are sometimes not very interesting.
My suggestion is to read the various mod notes and learn what the problem is here. Tsmithfield is an excellent contributor to debate on TS. Atm he has a habit of running derails on posts, which is a drop from his usual standard. Others should take note because I'm going to be moderating on derails and off topic more. It's election year. We need to be focused here on maintaining robust debate. Mods don't have time for a lot of hand holding on this.
I agree with Shanreagh.
Tsmitfield, your comments come from a world perspective that the majority of us on here strongly disagree with, but they are always reasoned and respectful.
This place is a lot better for your contributions as they challenge the thinking.
I would like to address the role of the foil in debate…
The best foil ..in this political case..is one who articulates arguments that question the prevailing ethos ..
And that role is invaluable..as the arguments presented by the the foil articulate the arguments against out there in the world…
And the quality of the reply should effectively refute the foils case..
And this interaction helps sharpen/focus the mind of the responder…and of the audience..
Not having foils risks the dreaded echo chamber…
I think smithfield and others fufil that foil role..
And as the one who responded to his comments in the renters thread ..I thought he was talking rubbish..and told him so…and (I think) unpacked his claims..
And I think his response to my first response was considered..and worth addressing..(since lost in ether..)
So I would defend smithfield continuing in that role of foil..
Labour's having trouble alienating more floating voters despite Kiri's valiant efforts. Don't despair folks, help is on the way. Up the parking fines!
Redacted means edited especially in order to obscure or remove sensitive information. It's a good example of Labour's non-transparency policy. So they've decided to hang the threat over voters like the sword of Damocles. https://www.history.com/news/what-was-the-sword-of-damocles
What's the actual threat to which you allude?
"Vote for us and we'll fine you more for your transgressions"? Considering the way National is boosting punishment for criminals, they'll be into that, too.
"Vote for them and the fines will stay the same"? More like it….. all those speedsters impatient in their Teslas and Maseratis neoliberally frustrated at speed restrictions.
Frankly, I can't see a threat. Perhaps a redaction caused by the numbers not yet having been decided?
Mass psychology. Meter-users as voters. Not rocket science. The mass effect operates on non-partisan voters to switch the electoral outcome. Your subjective view tends to be derived from tacit psych (`everyone thinks like me'), a normal biological default. To form a relatively objective view, one must transcend that tacit default in one's psyche…
This might be a threat!
Finland’s system for calculating fines is relatively simple: It starts with an estimate of the amount of spending money a Finn has for one day, and then divides that by two—the resulting number is considered a reasonable amount of spending money to deprive the offender of. Then, based on the severity of the crime, the system has rules for how many days the offender must go without that money. Going about 15 mph over the speed limit gets you a multiplier of 12 days, and going 25 mph over carries a 22-day multiplier.
Most reckless drivers pay between €30 and €50 per day, for a total of about €400 or €500. Finland’s maximum multiplier is 120 days, but there's no ceiling on the fines themselves—the fine is taken as a constant proportion of income whether you make €80,000 a year or €800,000.
So, depending on your income, you might get a $103,000 speeding fine.
https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2015/03/finland-home-of-the-103000-speeding-ticket/387484/
And in other countries in Europe. https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna34792272
Scofflaws beware- you have more to lose than your change.
Okay, I'm impressed. That does seem like rocket science.
Trough justice? also Tough Justice?
The problem is that the evidence from Labour's current attempts to fix the housing market and reduce homelessness seem to have only made the problem a lot worse. From the article:
It seems to me that the Greens are promising more of the same, but harder. So, I struggle to see how what the Greens are proposing will fix the problem.
If they are able to build 35000 houses, that will definitely help, assuming that landlords don't exit the market in droves at the same time. But, that seems a very heroic promise given that Labour was only able to add just over 10000 as at August 22.
[TheStandard: A moderator moved this comment to Open Mike as being off topic or irrelevant in the post it was made in. Be more careful in future.]
This is another attempt to say Labour's policy failed so the Green policy will too. You provide no analysis of GP policy and why its useful to compare with Labour policy, nor what Lab policy was nor why it partially failed, so it's just another derail from the post, which is about a specific set of GP policies.
Maybe try reading the policy.
By all means, under the post, run the line about landlords will exit the market in droves, that's a direct issue arising from the policy. But please relate it to the actual bits in the policy that would make that scenario feasible.
Now we are heading into a recession there is potential for govt building program to get meaningful traction. Kiwibuild was doomed to fail as at the time the construction industry was already at or damned near capacity, so it was in essence it was an impossible to implement policy.
Sorry to disappoint you… just coming out of a technical one.
It seems as if you are trolling here, at least under certain Posts.
Only three days ago I replied to you (https://thestandard.org.nz/greens-release-rental-stories-collection/#comment-1957199) with this information that was also from the Beehive and that was up-to-date [dd. 22 June 2023]:
You obviously read and replied to it: https://thestandard.org.nz/greens-release-rental-stories-collection/#comment-1957206. Yet, here you choose to use outdated data!?
Furthermore, in/with this reply, you also ignored the plethora of data & stats provided by Louis under that same other Post. Why is that? Does it not suit your troll narrative?
I’m becoming tired of your superficial & simplistic reckons here on TS, which seem to be targeted at certain Posts or comments. You don’t provide critical analysis or constructive criticism but mostly biased opinion and antagonistic attitudes. Some seem to think that you make a useful contribution here and prevent TS from becoming like an echo chamber. I disagree! You are wasting precious time of other commenters and Mods alike
tsmithfield did for a long time and I am one of those who gave him credit for his comments. But since the election campaign has heated up he's reverted back to trolling. Unfortunate.
This is my take too. Reminds me if Wayne Mapp who provided useful right wing challenge here for a long time and then one election year just started running nact troll lines and eventually got banned.
Pity
He has some good points foreign policy wise and doesn't always toe the party line
He comments on TDB and I value his input (even though I disagree lots)
He never gets petty or personal
and comments with some experience backing him
Mapp? Yes it was a loss. But not much we could do if he was bringing Dirty Politics memos and wouldn't stop. Maybe he's since changed again.
Any politician who doesn’t know their name, and “forgets” to pay their bill after a late drunken night on town should automatically be removed from office. I have no issues with drinking, but I do with those individuals who can’t control themselves after a couple of bottles of vino. It’s just a bad look for us seasoned drinkers.
Wellington deserves a better person as Mayor than a drunk who forgets their name and doesn’t pay the bar tab. BTW “forgetting” to pay pay the bill, AKA shoplifting.
I haven’t seen anything to suggest she is a drunk. It’s not that hard to leave somewhere without paying by accident. I’ve done it a couple of times and then returned to pay when I realised.
People who “forget” to pay, & don’t know what their name is, suggests that they’re a drunk.
I have no problems drinking, and I drink too much, however I can handle my drink & always pay. If you’re so drunk that you “forget to pay” (AKA I’m really important, I shouldn’t have to pay) then you’re an overly entitled drunk,and certainly unfit for public office.
Please supply the link that TW forgot her name. Quote and link please.
You are interpreting a set of apparent things but it’s not the only way of interpreting them. We don’t know what happened.
Marginal, Terry:
I suspect she still knew who she was. Asking the waiter who she was seems to be her way of disseminating knowledge of her status.
Did it work for Aaron Gilmore?
https://thespinoff.co.nz/live-updates/06-07-2022/ex-mp-aaron-do-you-know-who-i-am-gilmore-launches-political-comeback
He's a Wellington resident and maybe is giving lessons in this non proftable big-noting policy. .
Mind you storm in a teacup and Wellington’s a village both spring to mind.
She is lying relatively low mayoralty-wise and as a Wgtn resident who voted for her I just hope she is busy getting on with it.
When I worked in hospitality. If a customer said “ do you know who I am” it was a precursor for expecting free drinks and special treatment, & a warning that your job was at risk if you didn’t provide the special treatment.
I do remember one mayor from the late’90’s who enjoyed the nightlife in Wellington, he always paid his tab and often shouted others a drink & was generous in tipping.
Terry, I hope you never have to defend hearsay. It is quite difficult.
Being part of the Greens these days would drive anyone to drink eh? In her case, it seems to be an after-effect:
Punters are liable to react like that when the old line is used by someone famous. There's no evidence he replied by calling her a lady, however. Fraught cultural implications dodged like a bullet. Well done, that punter!
Telling.
Nice anti-Green dig there. Bomber and you could become bestus best friends based on your common views of the Greens.
How dumb do you have to be to walk into a mongrel mob meeting and think it was a different meeting? One of the lamest “I got found out” excuses I’ve ever heard. Bit like the 5 year old with ice cream all over their face trying to explain “it wasn’t me”
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/labour-mp-gatecrashes-mongrel-mob-meeting-says-she-thought-it-was-a-different-meeting/SSKNXX6PLNH2VC3IHR54IWPJSU/
No idea what Ingrid Leary was or wasn't thinking about the event – but if someone else is managing your diary (electorate secretary?) – I can see how you could misunderstand the nature of the event you're scheduled to attend.
What struck me in the article, however, was Harry Tam
Which seems to be the reverse of what TPM want (more people on the Maori roll).
He seems to be aiming at Labour/Green support, rather than TPM.
Make your own creature: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Genetically_Engineered_Machine
You too can be a deity! However, that seems to work best in a global team jamboree context. Updates are available elsewhere;
https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/story/risks-and-potential-rewards-synthetic-biology
Allowing GMO-makers in back-yard labs a potential side-effect of lifting GMO restriction in NZ? (Shudders).
Do-it-yourself CRSPER gene editing is a thing, apparently.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0OTQtlHRPWc
It’s CRISPR.
That YT clip is 4 years old; a lot has happened since in gene-editing technology.
Breaking news: I just heard on the 4pm RNZ news that Kiri has been given a couple of weeks leave – after which the PM will discuss her future with her.
Either they got it wrong or I heard it wrong since it appears here as only a couple of days: https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/132469734/kiri-allan-is-taking-a-bit-of-time-out–pm-chris-hipkins
And, not mental health leave, but a few days off during the school holidays (any sole parent knows what that's like)
“A Government spokesperson confirmed that Allan is on leave again this week. It is a recess week as well as school holidays, and a number of MPs – especially those with children – have taken leave this week.”
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/cabinet-minister-kiri-allan-on-leave-again/WDWTIOXR7RB7LO7RASIGZCMEBY/
Have to say, I think this development is such a non story.
Aha – it looks like the media sloppily conflating Kiri Allen's time off (a couple of days this week) with when Hipkins will be able to catch up with her in person (a couple of weeks, when he returns from Europe)
https://thespinoff.co.nz/live-updates/03-07-2023/kiri-allan-on-leave-again-pm-hasnt-had-face-to-face-conversation-with-her
Yeah, same here:
Which suggests that Hipkins may have got it wrong!
I have every sympathy with Kiri Allen. Any one who has survived a cancer diagnosis and treatment would.
There's been a lot more downers too in her personal life.
Time for her to rest, pause, consider.
And for us, too.
Yes Mac1
The creation of a Woman's Rights Party begs the question of what 'rights' are they missing out on.
What next..a Men's Rights Party!
Here's an interesting interview.
https://youtube.com/shorts/mgDvTew6TXU?feature=share
Seriously?
Why don’t you explain, in your own words, what’s so ‘interesting’ and why we should click on that link?
Rights are never set in stone. In the US we see how hard-fought rights are pealed back and repealed. Does this remind you of NACT? Once their razor gang of cut, slash & burn is finished a whole lot of Kiwis will find that their rights have been curtailed. It is about protection of rights, which requires constant vigilance.
What I found interesting was Petersons case for women 'not being so hard done by'.In fact so called 'toxic masculinity' has become so endemic (imo)that its men who are not getting a fair go.
Protection of rights may indeed need constant vigilance.
What role do you think the Women's Rights Party can play in the NZ political scene apart from splitting the vote even more?
All the main parties have great representation when it comes to women.
Women have occupied nearly every high office in the public and private sector.
Who would really support a party like this with such a narrow focus and little chance of any meaningful influence?
For those with cataracts stuff reports another 3500 ops per year have been okayed
'Thresholds had varied from 46 to 61 points under DHBs, [Verrall] said – with 46 representing "mildly reduced vision" and 61 poor vision to the point that the person could no longer legally drive. In Auckland and Waitematā, the threshold was 46, while in Canterbury and Southern, it was 61, she said. She said the variation showed the worst of the "postcode lottery" and it wasn't fair. "In a first under the new health system [Te Whatu Ora] there will be a nationally consistent score of a maximum of 46 in order to access surgery, opening up eligibility for approximately 3500 more surgeries." '
https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/2018896851/te-whatu-ora-turns-one-what-s-changed
Kathryn Ryan works over the health system changes this morning.