Almost as insulting as the Support Staff in schools offer of 0% for most with some (those at the top of their step and those at the bottom) getting 1% each year for the next 3 years. The Ministry has advised that they should view their annual salary progression steps as your ‘pay rise’. Every other claim was rejected.
Nice to see some fighting taking place in charter school land. Charter school lover and magnate alwyn poole had 4 applications turned down. He thinks seymour isnt up to it and should resign. Lol. Alwyn gets all excited when David announces a party and then get angry when he isnt invited.
I opened this item from yesterday. The slight lead that Hipkins has over Luxon is based on the favour ability scores. In the middle is a 'not sure' group who are much larger for Hopkins than Luxon. In other words, looking at the unfavorable scores, a huge amount more dislike Luxon than Hipkins.
Now, the other very important takeaway from this article is WHY people have turned away from the government – why the honeymoon is well and truly over, as the article says. It's apparently because of the approach taken with the treaty bill/race relations in general.
Luxon, the great strategist and negotiator, signed his government to six months of said treaty bill being at the forefront of it's activities. Given the importance that the public place on race relations by this government, any good news will have to compete with the spectre of the pending select committee outcome.
That's not to say that the treaty select committee activity will be headlines every day for six months, but Luxon's nailed his colours to a very unpopular mast and can't get them down for at least six months. More, if the summer break for politicians is added to the life of the select committee (my guess).
I don't think Luxon would make a great chess player…
Anytime the left wants to have a dig at the government, it just needs to find something newsworthy about the select committee and the government approach to race relations in general.
Dunno if chess is the right game analogy. Lux presumed a rebound in the economy, which may be delayed further yet. I agree that allowing Seymour to forment racism hasn't worked out well. I'm not sure if Seymour is being disingenuous when he tells everyone he just wants them to think about Treaty principles. I suspect he's sufficiently simple-minded to actually believe it.
So punters see the sideshow as evading the ongoing failure of neoliberalism, except they lack the intellect to become conscious of that, so their seeing is tacit. They just keep recycling the stance of awaiting an economic recovery, as if faith & hope can make the thing work again. God willing, it may, but the mass psychology involved is driven by a casino play rather than chess.
I'm not sure if Seymour is being disingenuous when he tells everyone he just wants them to think about Treaty principles. I suspect he's sufficiently simple-minded to actually believe it.
Such suspicions may play into Seymour's hands – he'll be two weeks away from becoming our deputy PM when the select committee reports on 14 May 2025.
Let’s not play into Seymour’s hands
The message against the coalition Treaty Principles Bill should be simple: the Treaty protects all New Zealanders from corporate exploitation
As noted by the editorial writer Rupert O’Brien, “The Treaty principles have proved a significant roadblock to both corporatisation and privatisation in the past and present a clear threat to any plans of future development of public assets to the private sector. This effect is likely one of the key, although unstated, reasons for the push to return Te Tiriti to its erstwhile status as a simple nullity.”
I suggest this is the message we should be hammering home in Oppositional arguments to the bill. As part of the messaging, we should make clear the ties that Seymour and his backers have to corporate interests, both domestic and international and their plans to appropriate and exploit natural and public resources for private enrichment.
…
This bill is about the people (tangata whenua and tangata tiriti) vs corporate profits.
Normally, you would think it would be better to be Deputy PM going into the 2026 election campaign, but Seymour gets that slot.
So, how does Peters get heard, when the other two have the job titles? He'll have to shout down the others ability to govern, to promote himself as the natural alternative to ACT.
That wasn't such an issue when the 3 parties were in opposition, not so helpful when you're Luxon and trying to show what a good leader you are. "I'm they're leader, which way did they go?"
Not being Deputy PM removes a constraint on Peters going into an election campaign. He will feel better enabled to be critical of Nat-ACT in order to save his own skin. As election years approach, Peters has always been sensitive to where public sentiment is heading, and is quite flexible as to where he places himself on the political spectrum. A seasoned opportunist.
Lux presumed a rebound in the economy, which may be delayed further yet.
Can't see that happening until 2027 at the earliest.
Unemployment isn't likely peaking up as far as the GFC (ie 6% rather than 10%) , but the business liquidations are still rising significantly.
The main reason appears to be the mobility of people to desert the sinking ship by moving to aussie. For the same reasons, the enthusiasm for incoming migration is also severely muted compared to 2010.
The local price inflation hasn't changed much. Still around 3%. The external price inflation has dropped down to almost nothing as the global supply chains cleaned up post covid disruption.
That leaves us with significiant price inflation at the higher end of the band, and an unsatisfied demand for wage inflation to catch up with the previous inflation. While we have a economy offshore that is willing to pay an effectively higher wage rise with higher wages and lower overall costs. Shades on the late 1970s and 1980s.
Looks like the RBNZ has shifted from fighting external inflation to trying to stave off stagflation, largely caused by this government's interesting ideas about how to promote productive work in the government sectors.
Throwing more administrative back-end work on to the 'front-line' staff so that they have less time to do their jobs – and effectively pay them less than the inflation rate. While discarding the people who like the accounting and policy work. I can't think of a better strategy to force front-line migration than that scenario.
At the same time, they're throwing risk throughout the economy as they try to shift where their investment and the investments that they support goes. That just leads to projects being stalled until 2027, especially after the auditors like the treasury and auditor-general start looking for actual viable business cases. I can’t think of a serious tech project that has gone into startup this year. A pile have decided to move out or shut. The headlines and PR are for companies that were on the cusp of going global last year and had already secured their VC funding.
And all this means that the tax take is going to contract regardless how many new position get tossed into the IRD – currently the only area of permanent government positions.
You'd think that these dumbarses would read some economic history. Instead Luxon and co are hoping for a surge in farm commodity margins. But we're heading to a era of globally closed markets – not the globally open markets of the 2010s.
At the same time that the world population growth is slowing markedly. The next billion mark at 9 billion is way more than decade away, unlike the sub-decadal increments of the last 30 years.
The poll is good news for the Left-it would leave them in power; there would not be a "hung parliament".
This is because the commentary is wrong where it says:
"Assuming all seats won on election night are held, and using the Electoral Commission's seat calculator, these results would deliver an overhang in Parliament with both Te Pāti Māori and National winning more electorate seats than their party vote entitlement."
In terms of the Nats, under this poll there they would inevitably lose a few electorate seats, so there will be no overhang.
In terms of TPM, they would win 7 seats with 6%. They will probably win all 7 Maori seats so again there is no overhang.
There's lots of exciting stuff in the poll (unless you're Christopher Luzon, who says they're all wrong. Only he has the right information and his star's on the rise).
But the best thing for me is that although the government likes to badmouth Jacinda Ardern's time as leader, years after she left the country, her popularity is 44% against Luxon at 29%.
And Seymour and Peters could only dream of Luxons 29%.
Apart from many other good things* she/Labour did, she saved 18,000 lives compared with the level of Covid death in the UK.
*Luxon and co. keep saying that Labour was a do-nothing government yet it has taken them a hell of a lot of legislation to reverse all the things they didn't do.
To improve his likeability there are two things Luxon and his PR team could do: 1) go on a charm offensive; 2) push his family into the limelight of the public eye.
I don’t know if I’d offer to help you; Luxon’s a heavy load because of his ‘big brain’. Which river in Wellington can be re-directed to flush out the filth from the 9th floor?
Dunno about a big brain … but that great bull-neck surmounted by a head that's not much larger in diameter, sitting over the body encased in its too-tight suit, irresistibly reminds me of toothpaste being squeezed from a tube.
(Oh dear, I really shouldn’t get so personal … )
No no no, we need Luxon to stay to fight the next election in 2026….or earlier if one of his coalition supporters pulls the plug. He is an asset for the Left.
Shimmering in the air in front of us is a well-hung social construct:
A grinding recession and racial tensions have ended National’s honeymoon with voters, who would deliver a hung Parliament if an election was held today, a new poll shows. The Post/Freshwater Strategy poll shows National slipping four points since the October 2023 election.
Field work was done last week, in the aftermath of a 45,000-strong hīkoi outside Parliament against a controversial bill seeking to reinterpret the Treaty of Waitangi, and data that showed the economy continues to soften as unemployment bites. Freshwater Strategy director and pollster Mike Turner – who has polled for Boris Johnson, Scott Morrison, Jeremy Corbyn, Liz Truss and The Australian Financial Review – said: “These shifts are in line with other contemporary polls and indicates the National honeymoon period with voters is well and truly over. Freshwater Strategy interviewed n=1,150 eligible voters in New Zealand, aged 18+ online, between 26-27 November 2024. Margin of Error +/- 3%. Data are weighted to be representative of New Zealand voters.https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/360507840/new-poll-delivers-hung-parliament-bad-news-christopher-luxon-preferred-pm
So the stats are up to the political poll standard, and the simulation of an electoral outcome is authoritative on that basis. Parliament seems well-hung, but only in prospect. In systems theory, such a mirage is known as "the adjacent possible" and Google's AI Overview makes it concise:
The adjacent possible is a theory that describes the range of possibilities that exist at any given moment in time:
The gizmo helpfully illuminates a tetrad of interdisciplinary dimensions; biology, innovation, creativity, technology. As a mental algorithm in mass psychology, it presents us with a set of likelihoods, which our imagining turns into scenarios. So the social construct the media present here is a hypothetical derived from stats as the most likely future path from where we are in reality. Such mass hallucinations are influential.
Stuff:'A UK captain and maritime accident investigator said "mistakes made in the moment were almost certainly not the sole cause of the sinking. Human error was not “causative” – and instead, it pointed to wider systemic issues that likely resulted in the sinking." '
Once a staff H&S rep, I know from best practice and from experience that blame culture does nothing to improve H&S attitudes and behaviour. In fact, such culture drives people to hide errors and skimp on reporting any issues.
'Aussie maritime safety consultant and captain Ravi Nijjer said…“mode awareness” problems had been a feature of maritime disasters for decades, and were the result of a poor understanding of “human factors” in accidents…"You can't just blame the human error. In today's world, it's not really acceptable…You put different people in the same situation, they'll make the same error,”.
Instead of a court martial process, Nijjer said the navy needed to take the approach seen in the aviation industry, where a focus on the limitations of humans, particularly the fallibility of memory, had meant the development of training and systems to remove the risk of known errors.'
To be fair, this is only the first part of the inquiry, looking at individual responsibilities within the framework of Navy expectations. There is a pt2 to come that will look at Navy organisational systems (which should include autopilot systems installation and training).
So Pt1 of the inquiry can only be seen in relation to Pt2. Then we hopefully will see the full picture, with senior NDF people under scrutiny for their decisions.
Ravi is very good on accident analysis and human factors.
He developed and teaches excellent courses in Maritime Bridge Resource Management (Marine version of CRM on aircraft. Managing cockpit/bridge teams in high stress/high stakes situations.) for Australia and New Zealand.
Mode awareness accidents and mode changeover accidents happen, but are not that common. Since the Exxon Valdez, most mariners are well aware of the risks, and SOP's to avoid them.
Not commenting specifically on recent incidents because I don't have enough information, but lack of awareness of the mode and the ships track, points to either poor training or poorly designed equipement (Visual mode indications, for example). Systemic problem, as are almost all accidents, not individual error or negligence. No one goes to work intending to have an accident. Many things have to line up for an accident to occur.
Of course organisations prefer inquiries to result in a simplistic finding of individual error. Changing systems and or equipment takes cost and effort. And the finger may point to someone much higher up. Much easier to just sack a scapegoat. Unfortunately that means that we have repeated accidents with the same cause. From Exxon Valdez on there have been several mode awareness accidents per decade. Not many, considering the many thousands of time we change mode on ships and aircraft. But still to many, as per recent events. Zero from that cause is obviously preferred.
We had decades of accidents and fatalities from on load release lifeboats. The accidents were put down to lack of crew competence and training. Despite updated training and emphasise on the dangers the accidents continued to happen. It took several deaths before on load releases were banned. The human factors in the accidents were ignored for years, despite them happening to people who, on the face of it, were competent and informed.
If it is two in the same country close in time would have me asking questions such as. 'Were the autopilots/DP systems from the same maker? Has the training and SOP's changed for some recently? Is the mode change too complex or slow? Where/what is the indication of the steering mode? What do the Navy and rail ferry systems, origin of crew and training have in common? Were the crews aware of the accident reports from previous mode change accidents?
Was it a mode change accident or is the inquiry leaping to conclusions because of the public pressure for a result? (Mode changes and cross checks are basic familiarisation practice on every ship i've been on).
Love Fix and Fogg (they're my go-to brand) – but also recognize that they're at the more premium end of the market.
For a Mum on a tight budget, losing budget lines of PB – may mean that this spread is off the menu for her kids.
And PB – even at the low-end more sweetened end of the spectrum – is probably a more healthy alternative than jam….
My sister would disagree Ad. Her view is that a diet that includes a typical NZ pie is far superior in developing the means to defeat allergies and other food related reactions.
To be a smart ass I thought I'd jokingly suggest "make your own peanut butter:." So I googled it. You can, Cheaply. Using a blender, a food processor, meat grinder or pestle and mortar. Think I'll give it a go…… just another kind of hummus, right?
The long lunch with Boris Johnson is on today, proceeding in all its magnificence as I write. My invitation failed to materialise. But at least I can be amused by how the rugged, independent, free-thinking, entrepreneurial individualists of the financial markets just love sucking up to someone famous – however buffoonish his nature and ruinous his actual performance in power. How unlike their own self-image these people really are.
Sold out. Everyone must be keen to recommend a good hairdresser to him! His post-Brexit retrospective would be interesting. I've been intrigued by the slide in relativity between the NZ & UK currencies the past couple of years – that seems solid proof they are doing better than us – particularly since our currency relative to Australia's has remained constant over that period.
Why the democrats are just down right evil, they leave their own people to freeze in tents whilst giving money to wars. And before you go but, but trump – trump is not in power yet and he will in all probability be worse – but the fact of the matter is. Biden is in charge and doing this.
You might want to do a longer summary of his presidency than one sour note.
I'd rank Biden outside of the Top Ten US Presidents, but just higher than Clinton because he's the first to even try and roll back the IMF+World Bank extremists and strengthen good government. Maybe 12th when you include his VP work under Obama.
Trump would be 46th out of 46 of all time by multiple measures.
Alcohol is hell of a drug – Hat tip to Zac Guildford, Jesse Ryder, Byron Kelleher, SBW and countless others
"Rugby and alcohol sponsorship have been linked for decades, despite problem drinking being prevalent among players. It's time for World Rugby to pick sides."
Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for November 2024 shows the Labour-Greens-Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition on 50.5% (up 2.5% points) consolidating their lead over the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) on 44% (down 3% points).
For the National-led Government it was a decline in support for National, down 2.5% points to 28.5% that drove the overall fall in support. This is the lowest level of support for National since Christopher Luxon became National leader three years ago in late November 2021. Support for ACT was unchanged at 9% and support for NZ First was down 0.5% points at 6.5%.
For the Parliamentary Opposition, support for Labour was down 1% point to 28%, support for the Greens was down 0.5% points at 13.5% and support for the Maori Party was up 4% points to 9% – a record high level of support for the Maori Party.
Christopher Luxon is every dismal boss who ever made you wince, or roll your eyes, or think to yourself I have absolutely got to get the hell out of this place.Get a load of what he shared with us at his cabinet reshuffle, trying to be all sensitive and gracious.Dr ...
The text of my submission to the Ministry of Health's unnecessary and politicised review of the use of puberty blockers for young trans and nonbinary people in Aotearoa. ...
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Happy New Year!I had a lovely break, thanks very much for asking: friends, family, sunshine, books, podcasts, refreshing swims, barbecues, bike rides. So good to step away from the firehose for a while, to have less Trump and Seymour in your day. Who needs the Luxons in their risible PJs ...
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The lie is my expenseThe scope of my desireThe Party blessed me with its futureAnd I protect it with fireI am the Nina The Pinta The Santa MariaThe noose and the rapistAnd the fields overseerThe agents of orangeThe priests of HiroshimaThe cost of my desire…Sleep now in the fireSongwriters: Brad ...
This is a re-post from the Climate BrinkGlobal surface temperatures have risen around 1.3C since the preindustrial (1850-1900) period as a result of human activity.1 However, this aggregate number masks a lot of underlying factors that contribute to global surface temperature changes over time.These include CO2, which is the primary ...
There are times when movement around us seems to slow down. And the faster things get, the slower it all appears.And so it is with the whirlwind of early year political activity.They are harbingers for what is to come:Video: Wayne Wright Jnr, funder of Sean Plunket, talk growing power and ...
Hi,Right now the power is out, so I’m just relying on the laptop battery and tethering to my phone’s 5G which is dropping in and out. We’ll see how we go.First up — I’m fine. I can’t see any flames out the window. I live in the greater Hollywood area ...
2024 was a tough year for working Kiwis. But together we’ve been able to fight back for a just and fair New Zealand and in 2025 we need to keep standing up for what’s right and having our voices heard. That starts with our Mood of the Workforce Survey. It’s your ...
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..I/We wish to make the following comments:I oppose the Treaty Principles Bill."5. Act binds the CrownThis Act binds the Crown."How does this Act "bind the Crown" when Te Tiriti o Waitangi, which the Act refers to, has been violated by the Crown on numerous occassions, resulting in massive loss of ...
Everything is good and brownI'm here againWith a sunshine smile upon my faceMy friends are close at handAnd all my inhibitions have disappeared without a traceI'm glad, oh, that I found oohSomebody who I can rely onSongwriter: Jay KayGood morning, all you lovely people. Today, I’ve got nothing except a ...
Welcome to 2025. After wrapping up 2024, here’s a look at some of the things we can expect to see this year along with a few predictions. Council and Elections Elections One of the biggest things this year will be local body elections in October. Will Mayor Wayne Brown ...
Canadians can take a while to get angry – but when they finally do, watch out. Canada has been falling out of love with Justin Trudeau for years, and his exit has to be the least surprising news event of the New Year. On recent polling, Trudeau’s Liberal party has ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections Much like 2023, many climate and energy records were broken in 2024. It was Earth’s hottest year on record by a wide margin, breaking the previous record that was set just last year by an even larger margin. Human-caused climate-warming pollution and ...
Submissions on National's racist, white supremacist Principles of the Treaty of Waitangi Bill are due tomorrow! So today, after a good long holiday from all that bullshit, I finally got my shit together to submit on it. As I noted here, people should write their own submissions in their own ...
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A listing of 26 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, December 29, 2024 thru Sat, January 4, 2025. This week's roundup is again published soleley by category. We are still interested in feedback to hone the categorization, so if ...
Hi,The thing that stood out at me while shopping for Christmas presents in New Zealand was how hard it was to avoid Zuru products. Toy manufacturer Zuru is a bit like Netflix, in that it has so much data on what people want they can flood the market with so ...
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The Green Party has welcomed the provisional ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, and reiterated its call for New Zealand to push for an end to the unlawful occupation of Palestine. ...
The Green Party welcomes the extension of the deadline for Treaty Principles Bill submissions but continues to call on the Government to abandon the Bill. ...
Complaints about disruptive behaviour now handled in around 13 days (down from around 60 days a year ago) 553 Section 55A notices issued by Kāinga Ora since July 2024, up from 41 issued during the same period in the previous year. Of that 553, first notices made up around 83 ...
The time it takes to process building determinations has improved significantly over the last year which means fewer delays in homes being built, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “New Zealand has a persistent shortage of houses. Making it easier and quicker for new homes to be built will ...
Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden is pleased to announce the annual list of New Zealand’s most popular baby names for 2024. “For the second consecutive year, Noah has claimed the top spot for boys with 250 babies sharing the name, while Isla has returned to the most popular ...
Work is set to get underway on a new bus station at Westgate this week. A contract has been awarded to HEB Construction to start a package of enabling works to get the site ready in advance of main construction beginning in mid-2025, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.“A new Westgate ...
Minister for Children and for Prevention of Family and Sexual Violence Karen Chhour is encouraging people to use the resources available to them to get help, and to report instances of family and sexual violence amongst their friends, families, and loved ones who are in need. “The death of a ...
Uia te pō, rangahaua te pō, whakamāramatia mai he aha tō tango, he aha tō kāwhaki? Whitirere ki te ao, tirotiro kau au, kei hea taku rātā whakamarumaru i te au o te pakanga mo te mana motuhake? Au te pō, ngū te pō, ue hā! E te kahurangi māreikura, ...
Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says people with diabetes and other painful conditions will benefit from a significant new qualification to boost training in foot care. “It sounds simple, but quality and regular foot and nail care is vital in preventing potentially serious complications from diabetes, like blisters or sores, which can take a long time to heal ...
Associate Health Minister with responsibility for Pharmac David Seymour is pleased to see Pharmac continue to increase availability of medicines for Kiwis with the government’s largest ever investment in Pharmac. “Pharmac operates independently, but it must work within the budget constraints set by the government,” says Mr Seymour. “When this government assumed ...
Women’s Rights Party Co-leader Jill Ovens says the questions are odd, given there are no safety measures currently in place, and the use of puberty blockers (GnRH) to treat conditions related to “gender distress” is not a registered use of the ...
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Analysis - The prime minister has taken a close hard look at the varying skills of his ministers, resulting in a portfolio allocation imbalance following Sunday's reshuffle, Jo Moir writes. ...
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I posted this last night, but it bears repeating.
Please give support (a toot, perhaps) to the nurses that are going on strike tomorrow.
Striking to save one of the few mechanisms that show when they are understaffed- CCDM. Care Capacity Demand Management.
Striking because of the insult of an offer they received – up to 1% in April.
Almost as insulting as the Support Staff in schools offer of 0% for most with some (those at the top of their step and those at the bottom) getting 1% each year for the next 3 years. The Ministry has advised that they should view their annual salary progression steps as your ‘pay rise’. Every other claim was rejected.
My hunch is most support workers aren't members if the union.
Sounds like a good opportunity to get organized. It's easier to insult individuals than a group.
In the past, E Tu has managed to get a one off $750 payment for unionised caretakers after negotiations.
Nice to see some fighting taking place in charter school land. Charter school lover and magnate alwyn poole had 4 applications turned down. He thinks seymour isnt up to it and should resign. Lol. Alwyn gets all excited when David announces a party and then get angry when he isnt invited.
He probably didn't donate enough the the coc parties, a healthy donation is how you grease the wheels with those lot
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/535469/new-poll-delivers-hung-parliament-bad-news-for-christopher-luxon-as-preferred-pm
I opened this item from yesterday. The slight lead that Hipkins has over Luxon is based on the favour ability scores. In the middle is a 'not sure' group who are much larger for Hopkins than Luxon. In other words, looking at the unfavorable scores, a huge amount more dislike Luxon than Hipkins.
Now, the other very important takeaway from this article is WHY people have turned away from the government – why the honeymoon is well and truly over, as the article says. It's apparently because of the approach taken with the treaty bill/race relations in general.
Luxon, the great strategist and negotiator, signed his government to six months of said treaty bill being at the forefront of it's activities. Given the importance that the public place on race relations by this government, any good news will have to compete with the spectre of the pending select committee outcome.
That's not to say that the treaty select committee activity will be headlines every day for six months, but Luxon's nailed his colours to a very unpopular mast and can't get them down for at least six months. More, if the summer break for politicians is added to the life of the select committee (my guess).
I don't think Luxon would make a great chess player…
Anytime the left wants to have a dig at the government, it just needs to find something newsworthy about the select committee and the government approach to race relations in general.
Dunno if chess is the right game analogy. Lux presumed a rebound in the economy, which may be delayed further yet. I agree that allowing Seymour to forment racism hasn't worked out well. I'm not sure if Seymour is being disingenuous when he tells everyone he just wants them to think about Treaty principles. I suspect he's sufficiently simple-minded to actually believe it.
So punters see the sideshow as evading the ongoing failure of neoliberalism, except they lack the intellect to become conscious of that, so their seeing is tacit. They just keep recycling the stance of awaiting an economic recovery, as if faith & hope can make the thing work again. God willing, it may, but the mass psychology involved is driven by a casino play rather than chess.
Such suspicions may play into Seymour's hands – he'll be two weeks away from becoming our deputy PM when the select committee reports on 14 May 2025.
Although such suspicions may play into Seymour's hands – he'll be two weeks away from becoming our deputy PM
Oh, for Winston throw a hissy fit and refuse to give up the role, threatening to walk away from the CoC if he doesn't retain it…
Normally, you would think it would be better to be Deputy PM going into the 2026 election campaign, but Seymour gets that slot.
So, how does Peters get heard, when the other two have the job titles? He'll have to shout down the others ability to govern, to promote himself as the natural alternative to ACT.
That wasn't such an issue when the 3 parties were in opposition, not so helpful when you're Luxon and trying to show what a good leader you are. "I'm they're leader, which way did they go?"
Not being Deputy PM removes a constraint on Peters going into an election campaign. He will feel better enabled to be critical of Nat-ACT in order to save his own skin. As election years approach, Peters has always been sensitive to where public sentiment is heading, and is quite flexible as to where he places himself on the political spectrum. A seasoned opportunist.
Can't see that happening until 2027 at the earliest.
Unemployment isn't likely peaking up as far as the GFC (ie 6% rather than 10%) , but the business liquidations are still rising significantly.
The main reason appears to be the mobility of people to desert the sinking ship by moving to aussie. For the same reasons, the enthusiasm for incoming migration is also severely muted compared to 2010.
The local price inflation hasn't changed much. Still around 3%. The external price inflation has dropped down to almost nothing as the global supply chains cleaned up post covid disruption.
That leaves us with significiant price inflation at the higher end of the band, and an unsatisfied demand for wage inflation to catch up with the previous inflation. While we have a economy offshore that is willing to pay an effectively higher wage rise with higher wages and lower overall costs. Shades on the late 1970s and 1980s.
Looks like the RBNZ has shifted from fighting external inflation to trying to stave off stagflation, largely caused by this government's interesting ideas about how to promote productive work in the government sectors.
Throwing more administrative back-end work on to the 'front-line' staff so that they have less time to do their jobs – and effectively pay them less than the inflation rate. While discarding the people who like the accounting and policy work. I can't think of a better strategy to force front-line migration than that scenario.
At the same time, they're throwing risk throughout the economy as they try to shift where their investment and the investments that they support goes. That just leads to projects being stalled until 2027, especially after the auditors like the treasury and auditor-general start looking for actual viable business cases. I can’t think of a serious tech project that has gone into startup this year. A pile have decided to move out or shut. The headlines and PR are for companies that were on the cusp of going global last year and had already secured their VC funding.
And all this means that the tax take is going to contract regardless how many new position get tossed into the IRD – currently the only area of permanent government positions.
You'd think that these dumbarses would read some economic history. Instead Luxon and co are hoping for a surge in farm commodity margins. But we're heading to a era of globally closed markets – not the globally open markets of the 2010s.
At the same time that the world population growth is slowing markedly. The next billion mark at 9 billion is way more than decade away, unlike the sub-decadal increments of the last 30 years.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_population_projections
As usual National are looking in their rear view mirror and not thinking about the future – assuming that they can actually think of course..
Nat 34 ACT 8 NZF 6 Total 48%
Lab 31Gre 13 TPM 6 Total 50%
The poll is good news for the Left-it would leave them in power; there would not be a "hung parliament".
This is because the commentary is wrong where it says:
"Assuming all seats won on election night are held, and using the Electoral Commission's seat calculator, these results would deliver an overhang in Parliament with both Te Pāti Māori and National winning more electorate seats than their party vote entitlement."
In terms of the Nats, under this poll there they would inevitably lose a few electorate seats, so there will be no overhang.
In terms of TPM, they would win 7 seats with 6%. They will probably win all 7 Maori seats so again there is no overhang.
There's lots of exciting stuff in the poll (unless you're Christopher Luzon, who says they're all wrong. Only he has the right information and his star's on the rise).
But the best thing for me is that although the government likes to badmouth Jacinda Ardern's time as leader, years after she left the country, her popularity is 44% against Luxon at 29%.
And Seymour and Peters could only dream of Luxons 29%.
Wow Thinker…that is so good to hear.
Apart from many other good things* she/Labour did, she saved 18,000 lives compared with the level of Covid death in the UK.
*Luxon and co. keep saying that Labour was a do-nothing government yet it has taken them a hell of a lot of legislation to reverse all the things they didn't do.
The best thing about the polls is that Luxon has to face the media and talk about them. That's quite entertaining (bluster, bluster, bluster …).
His go-to defence for low ratings before he became PM was "well, people are still getting to know me".
They've got to know you now. How's that working out for you, Chris?
To improve his likeability there are two things Luxon and his PR team could do: 1) go on a charm offensive; 2) push his family into the limelight of the public eye.
3 leave!!
Too testing for Luxon because it would beg the question how he’d exit:
1) In his wife’s Tesla
2) Using his scooter
3) In a hired black Merc
4) On foot
5) By plane or magic carpet (to Te Puke)
I'll personally carry him where ever he wants to go as long as it's away
I don’t know if I’d offer to help you; Luxon’s a heavy load because of his ‘big brain’. Which river in Wellington can be re-directed to flush out the filth from the 9th floor?
If we wait long enough, a uncared for water pipe under the Beehive will burst![wink wink](https://cdn2.thestandard.org.nz/wp-content/plugins/ark-wysiwyg-comment-editor/ckeditor/plugins/smiley/images/wink_smile.png)
If it spouts upwards.
when I saw you mention Big incognito – I was think of the excess gas created by that ego…
It’s a reference to something Luxon once said about his ‘big brain’.
Dunno about a big brain … but that great bull-neck surmounted by a head that's not much larger in diameter, sitting over the body encased in its too-tight suit, irresistibly reminds me of toothpaste being squeezed from a tube.
(Oh dear, I really shouldn’t get so personal … )
7. On his sleigh (not)
No no no, we need Luxon to stay to fight the next election in 2026….or earlier if one of his coalition supporters pulls the plug. He is an asset for the Left.
Luxon's wife and have been on the cover of a women's magazine with and accompanying puff piece. Jacinda never did or allowed that.
And her popularity is still 44% while Luxon is at 29% (I didn't know he had such a big family)
https://youtu.be/SmsLVaxyMqU?si=PJqKCC97c6b30SLd
Shimmering in the air in front of us is a well-hung social construct:
So the stats are up to the political poll standard, and the simulation of an electoral outcome is authoritative on that basis. Parliament seems well-hung, but only in prospect. In systems theory, such a mirage is known as "the adjacent possible" and Google's AI Overview makes it concise:
The gizmo helpfully illuminates a tetrad of interdisciplinary dimensions; biology, innovation, creativity, technology. As a mental algorithm in mass psychology, it presents us with a set of likelihoods, which our imagining turns into scenarios. So the social construct the media present here is a hypothetical derived from stats as the most likely future path from where we are in reality. Such mass hallucinations are influential.
Maritime accident experts question Manawanui 'human error' finding
Stuff: 'A UK captain and maritime accident investigator said "mistakes made in the moment were almost certainly not the sole cause of the sinking. Human error was not “causative” – and instead, it pointed to wider systemic issues that likely resulted in the sinking." '
Once a staff H&S rep, I know from best practice and from experience that blame culture does nothing to improve H&S attitudes and behaviour. In fact, such culture drives people to hide errors and skimp on reporting any issues.
'Aussie maritime safety consultant and captain Ravi Nijjer said…“mode awareness” problems had been a feature of maritime disasters for decades, and were the result of a poor understanding of “human factors” in accidents…"You can't just blame the human error. In today's world, it's not really acceptable…You put different people in the same situation, they'll make the same error,”.
Instead of a court martial process, Nijjer said the navy needed to take the approach seen in the aviation industry, where a focus on the limitations of humans, particularly the fallibility of memory, had meant the development of training and systems to remove the risk of known errors.'
To be fair, this is only the first part of the inquiry, looking at individual responsibilities within the framework of Navy expectations. There is a pt2 to come that will look at Navy organisational systems (which should include autopilot systems installation and training).
So Pt1 of the inquiry can only be seen in relation to Pt2. Then we hopefully will see the full picture, with senior NDF people under scrutiny for their decisions.
If the Manawanui was a civil ship then a no-blame safety investigation approach would be appropriate. She's not.
Were their budgets cut? Backroom removed? Frontline streamlined? Just wondering.
Ravi is very good on accident analysis and human factors.
He developed and teaches excellent courses in Maritime Bridge Resource Management (Marine version of CRM on aircraft. Managing cockpit/bridge teams in high stress/high stakes situations.) for Australia and New Zealand.
Mode awareness accidents and mode changeover accidents happen, but are not that common. Since the Exxon Valdez, most mariners are well aware of the risks, and SOP's to avoid them.
Not commenting specifically on recent incidents because I don't have enough information, but lack of awareness of the mode and the ships track, points to either poor training or poorly designed equipement (Visual mode indications, for example). Systemic problem, as are almost all accidents, not individual error or negligence. No one goes to work intending to have an accident. Many things have to line up for an accident to occur.
Of course organisations prefer inquiries to result in a simplistic finding of individual error. Changing systems and or equipment takes cost and effort. And the finger may point to someone much higher up. Much easier to just sack a scapegoat. Unfortunately that means that we have repeated accidents with the same cause. From Exxon Valdez on there have been several mode awareness accidents per decade. Not many, considering the many thousands of time we change mode on ships and aircraft. But still to many, as per recent events. Zero from that cause is obviously preferred.
We had decades of accidents and fatalities from on load release lifeboats. The accidents were put down to lack of crew competence and training. Despite updated training and emphasise on the dangers the accidents continued to happen. It took several deaths before on load releases were banned. The human factors in the accidents were ignored for years, despite them happening to people who, on the face of it, were competent and informed.
If it is two in the same country close in time would have me asking questions such as. 'Were the autopilots/DP systems from the same maker? Has the training and SOP's changed for some recently? Is the mode change too complex or slow? Where/what is the indication of the steering mode? What do the Navy and rail ferry systems, origin of crew and training have in common? Were the crews aware of the accident reports from previous mode change accidents?
Was it a mode change accident or is the inquiry leaping to conclusions because of the public pressure for a result? (Mode changes and cross checks are basic familiarisation practice on every ship i've been on).
"Much easier to just sack a scapegoat."
Or find one who's conveniently perished as a result of the incident.
I've read hundreds of maritime and aviation accident reports.
If you delve deeper there are common themes in almost all of them.
Two predominate.
Shoutout to all the niche peanut butter producers like Pic's, Nut Brothers, and Fixx ND Fogg, with Sanitarium ceasing production.
Set your targets on Kraft next Good Kiwis.
Love Fix and Fogg (they're my go-to brand) – but also recognize that they're at the more premium end of the market.
For a Mum on a tight budget, losing budget lines of PB – may mean that this spread is off the menu for her kids.
And PB – even at the low-end more sweetened end of the spectrum – is probably a more healthy alternative than jam….
Fastest way to defeat a modern allergic millennial army is with a phalanx of toast and peanut butter.
My sister would disagree Ad. Her view is that a diet that includes a typical NZ pie is far superior in developing the means to defeat allergies and other food related reactions.![wink wink](https://cdn2.thestandard.org.nz/wp-content/plugins/ark-wysiwyg-comment-editor/ckeditor/plugins/smiley/images/wink_smile.png)
Binn Inn have a good budget peanut butter
I know your a lefty and all but you seem not to realise that most of us are happy with $3 peanut butter!!
Peanut butter's fine – just don't get (them) started on wine![smiley smiley](https://cdn2.thestandard.org.nz/wp-content/plugins/ark-wysiwyg-comment-editor/ckeditor/plugins/smiley/images/regular_smile.png)
https://montypython.fandom.com/wiki/Wee-Wee_Wine_Tasting
To be a smart ass I thought I'd jokingly suggest "make your own peanut butter:." So I googled it. You can, Cheaply. Using a blender, a food processor, meat grinder or pestle and mortar. Think I'll give it a go…… just another kind of hummus, right?
Celebrated in song:
The long lunch with Boris Johnson is on today, proceeding in all its magnificence as I write. My invitation failed to materialise. But at least I can be amused by how the rugged, independent, free-thinking, entrepreneurial individualists of the financial markets just love sucking up to someone famous – however buffoonish his nature and ruinous his actual performance in power. How unlike their own self-image these people really are.
Sold out. Everyone must be keen to recommend a good hairdresser to him! His post-Brexit retrospective would be interesting. I've been intrigued by the slide in relativity between the NZ & UK currencies the past couple of years – that seems solid proof they are doing better than us – particularly since our currency relative to Australia's has remained constant over that period.
Boris who?
Lets face facts
The lesser evil is still evil
Why the democrats are just down right evil, they leave their own people to freeze in tents whilst giving money to wars. And before you go but, but trump – trump is not in power yet and he will in all probability be worse – but the fact of the matter is. Biden is in charge and doing this.
You might want to do a longer summary of his presidency than one sour note.
I'd rank Biden outside of the Top Ten US Presidents, but just higher than Clinton because he's the first to even try and roll back the IMF+World Bank extremists and strengthen good government. Maybe 12th when you include his VP work under Obama.
Trump would be 46th out of 46 of all time by multiple measures.
One sour note. Sheesh you might wanna reread what I said – Two sour notes at least in what I'm saying.
Obviously I should not have mentioned trump as it triggered you to ignore the evil right in front of your face – sorry about that.
One sour note!
Priceless, I might use that.
I would hope that Sevu Reece would be embarrassed, but he's an All Black don't ya know and they simply have to be able to travel overseas. I bet some ordinary Joe Blow wouldn't be so lucky. It’s not his first time either. https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/sport/535540/all-black-sevu-reece-revealed-as-sports-star-guilty-of-wilful-damage
Alcohol is hell of a drug – Hat tip to Zac Guildford, Jesse Ryder, Byron Kelleher, SBW and countless others
"Rugby and alcohol sponsorship have been linked for decades, despite problem drinking being prevalent among players. It's time for World Rugby to pick sides."
https://thespinoff.co.nz/sports/01-02-2022/world-rugbys-beer-problem
P.S. Sober for four years now….
Bloody brilliant Barfly. I well remember your first anniversary, as our son was struggling in Aus.
Thankyou![smiley smiley](https://cdn2.thestandard.org.nz/wp-content/plugins/ark-wysiwyg-comment-editor/ckeditor/plugins/smiley/images/regular_smile.png)
You and Nick Rockel of Korero have this and many views in common. Cheers
Morgan Poll tonight. Surely a trend now?
Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for November 2024 shows the Labour-Greens-Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition on 50.5% (up 2.5% points) consolidating their lead over the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) on 44% (down 3% points).
For the National-led Government it was a decline in support for National, down 2.5% points to 28.5% that drove the overall fall in support. This is the lowest level of support for National since Christopher Luxon became National leader three years ago in late November 2021. Support for ACT was unchanged at 9% and support for NZ First was down 0.5% points at 6.5%.
For the Parliamentary Opposition, support for Labour was down 1% point to 28%, support for the Greens was down 0.5% points at 13.5% and support for the Maori Party was up 4% points to 9% – a record high level of support for the Maori Party.
ianmac, I take umbrage at your repeated use of the term "National-led" government, when anyone with half a brain can see it's an ACT-led coalition! /s
So trueTony. Though because National have the numbers, they should take the responsibility but sadly they just blah blah over all.
By the way Tony the above was a direct quote from Morgan. My fault I should have made that clearer.
We can't expect the media to recognise what is really happening, or to report on it accurately!
But 'we' should be (and are) clearer visioned.
But, as you say, the cock-ups ultimately land on Luxon's desk, so he, and the Natz, have to take responsibility!