Open mike 04/02/2011

91 comments on “Open mike 04/02/2011 ”

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1. Jenny 1

   4 February 2011 at 6:14 am

   Time to listen to mickysavage, here
   Accentuate the positive, and eliminate the negative.
   • Jenny 1.1

     4 February 2011 at 6:20 am

     In the spirit of the above comment by mickysavage

     NZ mobilisations to support Egyptians

     http://kiaoragaza.wordpress.com/2011/02/03/nz-mobilisations-to-support-egyptians-opposing-mubarak/

     For 30 years, the Mubarak regime has ruled the country with and Iron Fist.

     Under his rule, the people endured:

     -Poverty
     -Dictatorship
     -Torture
     -Unemployment
     -Fraud and Corruption

     AUCKLAND

     2pm Saturday 5 February

     Aotea Square

     Central city

     WELLINGTON

     12noon Saturday 5 February

     Midlands Park

     Lambton Quay

     Central city

     captcha – “proposing”
2. Jenny 2

   4 February 2011 at 6:17 am

   Rally and March to support Egyptian
   Uprising – Feb 5th.

   ——————–
   Subject: Flyer distribtuon tomorrow (Friday 4th February)

   Hello all,

   On the event page you will find the flyer for Saturday now uploaded. If you are
   able to print out a copy and take it to your work place, summer school classes,
   high school, local mosque or church or anywhere people will see it that would
   be much appreciated. We will have thousands of copies printed for distribution
   and ready to pickup tomorrow at the Unite Union in Kingsland. If you are
   willing and able to come and pick up some flyers to distribute at Friday
   prayers or on the streets please reply to this message so we can sort that
   out.

   Keep in mind that John Key has openly expressed his support for the Mubarak
   regime and does not support a transition as his concerns for the future of
   Israel are greater than his concerns (if any) for the Egyptian peoples demand
   for freedom from dictatorship. There should be no exceptions when it comes to
   Democracy – it is absolute. It is an embarrasment as a New Zealander that our
   leader is the only other leader in the world that supports this regime next to
   Israel.

   We are hoping for a huge turn out on Saturday and want to get the word out as
   much as possible so please get back to us if you are able to help out with
   flyer distributions. We need to show John Key that we, the people of New
   Zealand, are on the side of the Egpytian people – on the side of freedom,
   justice and democracy.

   Thank you and we hope to see you Saturday.

   captcha – “sending” as in message
   ——————–
   • Bored 2.1

     4 February 2011 at 7:31 am

     Well done Jenny, good to see somebody on this site doing something for the people of Egypt.

     The latest from Aljezeera shows that the whole thing is turning nasty which is something the west will be very worried about. Shonkey as an accolyte of the prevailing orthodoxy recognises only too well the threat posed by this type of unrest. Ultimately his class worldwide are at the mercy of what the Arabs do across the region. Democratic sovereignty versus empire is the issue, and we as part of the empire want the Arabs oil.
     • Jenny 2.1.1

       4 February 2011 at 9:00 pm

       .
       Tumeke

       http://tumeke.blogspot.com/2011/02/john-key-supports-mubarak-nz-doesnt.html
3. Bored 3

   4 February 2011 at 7:43 am

   On the Arab revolts, particularly Egypt, I am just wondering if the bloggers here see this as an 1815, 1848 1871 1968 moment when popular revolution got undermined and absorbed by the status quo OR is this a 1794 1917 moment that will fundamentally change the status quo?
   • higherstandard 3.1

     4 February 2011 at 7:44 am

     I’m picking it as a 2011 moment.
     • Jenny 3.1.1

       4 February 2011 at 9:12 pm

       “I’m picking it as a 2011 moment.”

       higherstandard

       Absolutely!

       Aotearoa: a wider perspective

       http://aotearoaawiderperspective.wordpress.com/2011/02/03/women-of-egypt-fighting-for-freedom/
       • Rosy 3.1.1.1

         4 February 2011 at 9:42 pm

         My eyes are glued to the Guardian updates…..
         http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/blog/2011/feb/04/egypt-protests-day-departure-live
         All the best for the NZ mobilisations to support Egyptians – I’m there in spirit. Lets hope it is gathering for celebrations
4. Pascal's bookie 4

   4 February 2011 at 7:43 am

   Read this this morning in the ODT:

   “Part of that [5%] increase is inflation and the other factor that is an issue that we don’t have a lot of control over and that’s gone up is insurance.

   Since the earthquake in Christchurch, all insurance premiums throughout the country have gone up, and there’s not a lot we can do about it.”

   Two questions:

   So did the actuary folk get their numbers wrong?
   Will this be a temporary price spike?

   (What’s the difference between an insurance company actuary and a mafia actuary?
   An insurance company actuary can tell you how many people will die this year, a mafia actuary can name them.)
   • higherstandard 4.1

     4 February 2011 at 7:45 am

     I checked my premiums very carefully when they came through, apart from the GST component they remained flat.
   • Ed 4.2

     4 February 2011 at 9:22 am

     Of course actuaries will get their numbers wrong – even they are not totally prescient. The Christchurch / Canterbury earthquake was outside anyone’s expected range of disasters for that location; or for New Zealand in general. It will have reduced reserves for insurance companies significantly. But it is also a Marketing decision – those nice people who sort out when it is best to reduce premiums to keep market share, and when a lot of clients will expect an increase so that costs of large claims are averaged out over time. Surprise surprise now is a time when a lot of people expect premiums to rise, and they will rise over a wider area than Canterbury; reinsurance arrangements will have affected companies outside New Zealand. Companies will hope to build up reserves again so that they can resume paying dividends, and still have enough reserves to meet the next spell when competition may drive premiums down.

     There may be a competitive change in policy wording as well – it seems that the period where accommodation is paid due to a dwelling being uninhabitable may be too short in some policies – and government assistance for this disaster possibly less than the home owners or the insurance companies expected. Are people having to move back to red marked buildings getting priority for repair?

     An interesting question is whether paying an insurance premium for a building that is uninhabitable due to the earthquake is an expense that is a consequence of the earthquake . . .
     • Lanthanide 4.2.1

       4 February 2011 at 10:10 am

       “Of course actuaries will get their numbers wrong – even they are not totally prescient. The Christchurch / Canterbury earthquake was outside anyone’s expected range of disasters for that location; or for New Zealand in general. ”

       Um, what? You know we’re all sitting here waiting for the alpine fault to go off, right? And that that event will likely be in the 8+ range, resulting in shaking of about magnitude 6.5-7 in CHCH, except instead of lasting for 40 seconds it’ll last about 2 minutes at least?

       There’s apparently also another fault-line running around the edge of Canterbury called the Hope Fault, and the seismograph and other monitoring systems that they set up over the Canterbury plains (which makes this the best scientifically recorded earthquake on record, because it hit right in the centre of the grid) was to monitor quakes from either the alpine fault or the hope fault.

       Also, Wellington is right on a fault line, and when the big one hits there it’s going to make this shake in CHCH look like a passing truck.
       • Pascal's bookie 4.2.1.1

         4 February 2011 at 10:19 am

         And if it’s true that all premiums are set to rise, then it seems a strange coincidence that all the companies’ actuaries got the numbers wrong in the same direction…
         • Lanthanide 4.2.1.1.1

           4 February 2011 at 10:30 am

           Not really, that’s market pressure for you. Some company decides that, despite the risk, they’ll reduce their premium in the hopes of gaining more customers. Other companies start reducing their premiums to compete.

           As long as the coverage and service provided to the customer is the same while the price goes lower, that’s a good thing. It’s the companies problem if when a disaster strikes it costs them more than they allowed for.
           • Colonial Viper 4.2.1.1.1.1

             4 February 2011 at 10:38 am

             Some company decides that, despite the risk, they’ll reduce their premium in the hopes of gaining more customers. Other companies start reducing their premiums to compete.

             We may be forgetting that retail insurers themselves are ‘cross insured’ / ‘underwritten’ (sorry don’t know what the technical name for it is), and if the retail insurers do too much of this premium cutting crap, they will lose access to that overarching international cross insurance or not be able to pay their own premiums.

             It’s the companies problem if when a disaster strikes it costs them more than they allowed for.

             Given the highly interconnected nature of every insurance company I wouldn’t say this is strictly true.

             Also, if a major insurer ends up not being able to pay out…well, that is going to create a problem for a lot of people, not just the retail insurance company who did not have access to sufficient funds.
             • Lanthanide …

               4 February 2011 at 10:59 am

               Yeah, clearly if they go too far in cutting premiums to attract customers, they’ll endanger their business.

               But they can still cut premiums to attract customers: they can clamp down on their profit, or “increase efficiency” (lay off staff etc) to reduce costs.

               Then, when disaster strikes, their reduced premiums give them a weaker buffer for absorbing the costs while retaining their profit margin, so they have to put premiums up again.
5. Bunji 5

   4 February 2011 at 8:31 am

   Deutsche Bank economist comes around to Marty’s point of view:
   “We’ve had a double-dip recession”

   Thanks for your good handling of the economy National…
6. Sanctuary 6

   4 February 2011 at 8:33 am

   I was ashamed yesterday. I was ashamed to be a New Zealander. I was ashamed that our state owned news channel thought the latest unemployment figures so unsexy, so un-noteworthy, so potentially damaging to the cult of personality built around John Key, that they were buried “under the fold” after the first advertising break.

   The fate of 158,000 unemployed New Zealanders – their fellow citizens for Gods sake – rated as less important than a non-fatal cyclone in Australia, the sentencing of a man for a months old murder, a minor re-shuffle in the opposition, or even an update on a cricket match, and about as important as John Key mincing about like a half-wit at a fashion parade.

   Our government doesn’t care, and our media elites don’t give a damn. They have given up. They have the mindset of a third world elite, where the barrios are invisible, inevitable and the people in them just an annoyance to be managed in between talking about overseas holidays and celebrity gossip..
   • john 6.1

     4 February 2011 at 9:23 am

     Hi Sanctuary
     “the cult of personality built around John Key”
     “Our government doesn’t care, and our media elites don’t give a damn. They have given up. They have the mindset of a third world elite, where the barrios are invisible, inevitable and the people in them just an annoyance to be managed in between talking about overseas holidays and celebrity gossip..”
     The ACTnat mob are following the policies of the biggest banana republic in the World,the U$. They intend to privatize everything in sight and continue to skew the tax system to favour the rich more and more.They are determined to continue dismantling the social responsibilty edifice we still have left. Eventually there will be 2 New Zealands: The well to do and those just existing on minimal incomes. The cult of personality on our own snake oil salesman Shonkey is a direct copy of the personality rubbish system they hood wink ordinary Americans with.
7. jcuknz 7

   4 February 2011 at 8:35 am

   What do Kiwi’s think of ‘Smile and Wave’?
   This morning Yahoo is running a poll about the radio interview which caused such a long thread here .
   Don’t approve it is damaging NZ’s reputation 2919
   No problem its just a bit of fun 17612
   Don’t know 560

   Obviously an un scientific poll but at 21,091 [when I wrote down the numbers] a pretty big sample.
   • just saying 7.1

     4 February 2011 at 8:44 am

     Interesting.

     Danyl at the Dim Post today:

     http://dimpost.wordpress.com/

     Also, Brian Edwards:

     http://brianedwardsmedia.co.nz/

     As someone (Puddleglum?) said, watch out for a Key photo-op at a woman-friendly event like breast cancer awareness, very soon.
     • Colonial Viper 7.1.1

       4 February 2011 at 9:03 am

       Goff’s team should beat Key to it.
       • just saying 7.1.1.1

         4 February 2011 at 9:07 am

         I went to Yahoo to see for myself, and the ratios are now opposite the above, with ‘just as bit of fun’ way out in the lead.
         • Lanthanide 7.1.1.1.1

           4 February 2011 at 10:12 am

           If you look carefully, it was 2,900 saying it was bad, 17,600 saying it was just a bit of fun, or 83% thinking it was just a bit of fun.

           So no, it hasn’t changed.
           • just saying 7.1.1.1.1.1

             4 February 2011 at 10:14 am

             What’s that excuse about insufficient coffee….
8. Bunji 8

   4 February 2011 at 9:04 am

   Good to see the PM’s buying into a fraud.

   The Power Balance wristband drives its sales by having celebrities (hence Key) wear it. It was recently forced in Australia to back down on its advertising and offer $A60 refunds to purchasers, making the statement:

   In our advertising we stated that Power Balance wristbands improved your strength, balance and flexibility. We admit that there is no credible scientific evidence that supports our claims and therefore we engaged in misleading conduct
   • prism 8.1

     4 February 2011 at 9:44 am

     bunji – What if we hold our political parties to a similar test with an abject apology and refund if justified? Way hay!
   • Lanthanide 8.2

     4 February 2011 at 10:14 am

     No, I don’t think it is Key that is “buying into the fraud”. I think it is Key that is being bought off. This company is probably paying him something like $5,000 to wear a bit of plastic on his wrist.
     • Lanthanide 8.2.1

       4 February 2011 at 1:44 pm

       Ugh, just had a meeting with my manager and noticed he’s wearing one of these stupid things too. He’s gone down in my estimation, now.
   • Bill 8.3

     4 February 2011 at 10:45 am

     Just another example of ‘How Mumbo-Jumbo Conquered the World’. (A must read)
     http://www.complete-review.com/reviews/sokala/wheenf.htm

     Snake oil salespeople and charlatans jesus creeping through the corridors of power dispensing quasi-religious advice and guidance to ‘our betters’…who then act on it.

     Astrologers offering guidance to the Reagans; the Clintons having conversations with Eleanor Roosevelt; the Blairs employing new age life coaches/ con-merchants to guide their personal affairs…

     So John is joining an exclusive group of credulous, but powerful tossers. Chicken entrails (organic and free range, of course!) coming to a government near you soon.
   • Draco T Bastard 8.4

     4 February 2011 at 1:46 pm

     He’s a money changer – fraud’s his middle name.
   • Colonial Viper 8.5

     4 February 2011 at 5:05 pm

     He’s probably got shares.
9. joe90 9

   4 February 2011 at 10:44 am

   sigh…

   http://voices.washingtonpost.com/blog-post/2011/02/egypt_news_day_ten_army_steps.html#human-rights

   http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/feb/02/egyptian-regime-thugs-protesters
   • Bill 9.1

     4 February 2011 at 10:53 am

     Predictable Joe90.

     It might sometimes be permissable to jettison the figurehead of a regime. But not the institutional underpinnings of a regime. They are to remain locked in.
     • Bored 9.1.1

       4 February 2011 at 11:39 am

       Joe / Bill / Jenny. Great to see at least three Standardistas watching events in Egypt. Seems to me that the majority of the people here and those I talk to are oblivious to the implications of this event for the whole world, and in particular to our feable little economy.
       • r0b 9.1.1.1

         4 February 2011 at 11:43 am

         Send us a guest post on it Bored. We can’t be everywhere at once…
         • Bored 9.1.1.1.1

           4 February 2011 at 1:03 pm

           Will do, sending shortly.
           • r0b 9.1.1.1.1.1

             4 February 2011 at 1:40 pm

             Excellent! I don’t handle our email, but someone will see it. Thanks…
       • Puddleglum 9.1.1.2

         4 February 2011 at 7:34 pm

         Hi Bored, not sure if you heard Robert Fisk on National Radio this morning. This podcast has him come in at about 1min30secs.

         Straight talking, especially about the US role.
         • Jenny 9.1.1.2.1

           4 February 2011 at 8:03 pm

           .
           Key backs Mubarak.

           Time for Kiwi’s to Walk Like An Egyptian.

           Queen St. 2 pm

           Lampton Quay. 12 noon
10. mickysavage 10

    4 February 2011 at 12:01 pm

    Latest Roy Morgan is just out.

    The latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows support for John Key’s National-led Government has fallen to 53% (down 6.5%). Support for Prime Minister Key’s National Party is 49% (down 6%), the Maori Party 3% (up 0.5%) and ACT NZ 1% (down 0.5%).

    Support for Opposition Parties has risen to 47% (up 6.5%) with the Labour Party 34.5% (up 5.5%), Greens 6.5%, (down 0.5%), New Zealand First 5.5% (up 1% — and now at their highest since mid 2008) and others 0.5% (up 0.5%).

    I thought the last result was an abberation and it appears to be. This result is much more in keeping with previous results. The other possibility is that Kiwis are starting to express their opposition to Key’s privatisation proposals.

    Goff’s position as leader is now less unsecure.
    • gobsmacked 10.1

      4 February 2011 at 12:09 pm

      Yes, the last Morgan poll was crap. In early January most voters support the “Politicians bugger off, we’re on holiday” party. I don’t know why they even bothered polling then.

      But the Key cheerleaders can’t have it both ways. Either National’s support is plummeting, and they have just lost over a hundred thousand votes in a few days …

      … or the previous poll was totally wrong. Which?
    • gingercrush 10.2

      4 February 2011 at 12:36 pm

      As I said last month:

      “I don’t like spikes that are irregular as this poll is. Also whenever there is such a huge shift things tend to go the other way the following month. I also find Roy Morgan tends to at times have a bias towards NZ First that isn’t there. Same with the Horizon poll.

      Roy Morgan is a fluctuating poll. Its the only one that is Monthly (unless Horizon decides to go monthly). Therefore, it will tend to swing in favour of certain parties then different parties the following month.”
      • Shazzadude 10.2.1

        4 February 2011 at 6:54 pm

        How does Roy Morgan overestimate NZF’s support? Last election they were the only polling company to be within 0.5% of both New Zealand First and ACT’s total. All other polls were well out on New Zealand First’s total.
    • Lanthanide 10.3

      4 February 2011 at 12:52 pm

      I think it was pretty clear that the previous poll results were bunk, but I’m disappointed to see that this poll merely reversed them, it didn’t drop any further as a result of the SOE sales pitch.

      I think the next poll will probably show a sizeable drop on the order of 3-4%, and steadily decline after that.
      • gingercrush 10.3.1

        4 February 2011 at 1:02 pm

        Because polling takes place over two weeks and the SOE sales and Goff’s announcements around Tax policy only took place during that last week.
        • Lanthanide 10.3.1.1

          4 February 2011 at 1:45 pm

          Yeah, I figured that was why.
    • ianmac 10.4

      4 February 2011 at 12:53 pm

      Hopeful Mickey. Wonder why there have been pro-government opinions pushing for getting rid of Phil? They must be sensing a threat perhaps?
      • mickysavage 10.4.1

        4 February 2011 at 9:11 pm

        Could be ianmac.

        There is this weird statement in the commentary:

        Better news for the Key Government is that New Zealand achieved a calendar year trade surplus for the year to December 2010, New Zealand’s first calendar year trade surplus since 2001 — although news of the trade surplus was released after polling for this survey was completed

        The commentary makes no mention of the jump in unemployment numbers or that a few economists have come out and predicted that we have officially entered into a double dip depression. Why mention the trade figures and not the employment or growth rates?

        I just wish I could understand why these corporations insist on presenting a relentlessly positive spin on an economy that is looking shakier and shakier.
        • KJT 10.4.1.1

          4 February 2011 at 10:10 pm

          Of course we finally have a trade surplus. Because of record food export prices and nobody to buy imports as we do not have any spare cash after National’s ‘stimulus package”..
    • The Baron 10.5

      4 February 2011 at 2:47 pm

      “Goff’s position as leader is now less unsecure.” = ROFLMAO.

      When do you reckon he will pass 10% on the preferred prime minister polling, Micky?
      • Colonial Viper 10.5.1

        4 February 2011 at 3:04 pm

        When? Oh, about Nov 27 Goff will get a thirty five to forty point bounce.
        • The Baron 10.5.1.1

          4 February 2011 at 3:45 pm

          Really? You prepared to make it interesting?
          Let’s put $50 to charity on whether Goff makes 40% on the preferred PM poll before the election then. If he does, I’ll pay up to your chosen charity. If not, vice versa.
          • Colonial Viper 10.5.1.1.1

            4 February 2011 at 7:41 pm

            Well, I’m counting on Goff getting a polls bounce when he is PM on Nov 27 😀

            However, its very unlikely that Goff is going to get 40% personal preference ratings before elections are held in Nov.
      • mickysavage 10.5.2

        4 February 2011 at 9:14 pm

        The Baron

        When do you reckon he will pass 10% on the preferred prime minister polling, Micky?

        Who cares?

        I would much prefer to see Labour over 40%.
    • Jenny 10.6

      4 February 2011 at 11:40 pm

      It is also possible that in the coming weeks Key’s reputation may be tarnished by his continuing support for the murderous dictator in Cairo.

      As Key’s Hero, Mubarak more and more demonstrates his regime’s casual brutality.

      Latest reports from Egypt are of a co-ordinated crackdown on the media, with many journalists being detained and beaten by security personal. The police also systematically take their equipment and footage.

      As video surfaces of Mubrak’s police using their vehicles to mow down and kill protesters.

      Several journalists have been hospitalised by police beatings including a New Zealand producer with Fox News.

      Will Key be the last Western leader to back this fascist?

      Or will a big turn out at tomorrow’s solidarity pro-democracy march force a change of stance by Key?

      Walk like an Egyptian
11. Treetop 11

    4 February 2011 at 12:10 pm

    I’d like to see Nact and Labour/ Greens slog it out on the rugby field.

    Who would you put on each team and in what position?
    • lprent 11.1

      4 February 2011 at 1:25 pm

      Parliamentarians already field a rugby team from what I understand.
      • Treetop 11.1.1

        4 February 2011 at 1:57 pm

        That’s what I thought. I need to research how often and when they usually play. I would still like to see a game played soon.
12. ak 12

    4 February 2011 at 12:57 pm

    Hoo flipping ray! Best news in days – yep that last poll was a dog, but still, this one by no means takes in the full effect of ASSET SALES.

    If Labour is even half-way to sanity by now and works hard , the Maori Party will go Left this time if the magical balance occurs, and Winnie wouldn’t enable a NACT govt at gunpoint.

    So it’s NACT 50%, L-G-NZF 46% One in fifty voters to swing, MP to listen to the harakeke roots.

    Game on: and that 5.5% of Winnie’s (on zero-negative MSM) points the way. The way of Mining, Mt Albert, Lenslide.

    On the ground action, humour, basic kiwi values: the party of inclusion and compassion for the underdog (goffy!), alive and kicking in your own communtiy. The practical christianity of those recent young lab chaps and chapesses: leaflets with cartoons (how about a competition?) with a local’s name and phone number on it, offers of support for oldies, working bees, garage sales, and repeat, repeat, repeat, ASSET SALES and BORROWING FOR TAX CUTS FOR THE RICH.

    One semi-abled old fart can deliver 200 leaflets in a morning, chatting on the way. On yer bikes Standardistas!
    • patriot_nz 12.1

      4 February 2011 at 6:47 pm

      I think NZ First could get around 15% of the vote next election. Anecdotally I am hearing more and more people I know saying they are seriously considering voting for NZ First simply to stop the asset sales. I am also picking up a softening in attitudes towards Labour. The next polls could be interesting- this poll was taken too late to be much affected by the asset sale announcement.
13. gobsmacked 13

    4 February 2011 at 1:04 pm

    The polling period was January 17 – 30.

    Key announced the sell-off on January 26. So that would only have had a small influence on the result.
    • lprent 13.1

      4 February 2011 at 1:23 pm

      Especially when you consider that typically the final few days are usually just tidy up work trying to get specific demographics to fill out the polling profile. There are usually significantly less completed calls during that period.
14. the pink postman 14

    4 February 2011 at 1:57 pm

    Just when I was begining to think the Herald was moving a bit more to the political centre ( put it down to old age) I read today’s insulting Editorial.
    Well at least we now know that the Herald will once again back National and its leader. I’m at a loss to know how we overcome these attacks. Letters to the Editor are not printed and no amount of complaining has any effect .
    Perhaps the old street corner meetings are the answer .One thing is certain Phil Goff must get out to the public as often as possible because the press are not likely to give us any support.
    • mickysavage 14.1

      4 February 2011 at 2:13 pm

      I thought it was a shocker too. Especially where it said Trevor Mallard, has scored only small points off Anne Tolley and I wonder which planet the editor has been on.

      For me over the past 12 months Mallard’s questions of Tolley have been the highlight. Occasionally she stumbles through but otherwise she is a train wreck.
    • The Voice of Reason 14.2

      4 February 2011 at 11:21 pm

      How Roy Morgan sees the latest poll:

      “In New Zealand National-led Government (53%, down 6.5%) lead falls
      as Opposition Parties gain (47%, up 6.5%)”

      How Stuff sees the latest poll:

      “National able to govern alone – poll”
15. Zaphod Beeblebrox 15

    4 February 2011 at 2:32 pm

    I’d really like Goff and co to put in a big effort in Botany. Following his failed attempts to bring down Len Brown before last years elections the Nat candidate has big negatives and yesterdays unemployment figures will have spooked a lot of people who must be sick of waiting for the “Brighter Future'” which they supposedly were to enjoy by now.

    A good showing there will really put the wind up the Nats and their backers and give Goff a real boost in the eyes of the public. What have they got to lose?
    • gobsmacked 15.1

      4 February 2011 at 2:41 pm

      It doesn’t sound like Labour are going to be trying too hard in Botany:

      http://www.stuff.co.nz/auckland/local-news/central-leader/4613862/Mt-Roskill-a-priority-Wood
      • Draco T Bastard 15.1.1

        4 February 2011 at 3:13 pm

        Pity, it would have been good to see the numbers if they had.
      • gingercrush 15.1.2

        4 February 2011 at 3:33 pm

        That’s positively awful. Even if a win is extremely likely for National, Botany surely deserves a Labour candidate that is going to be committed to the area. Not someone who wholly admits he’s a Mount Roskill local. With that response he’s clearly waiting for Goff to depart his electorate and then get himself a foot in the door.

        Besides, Botany will be up for grabs again in November and I would have thought whoever was the Labour candidate would be campaigning right through to the November 26 election. After all, last election Labour won just 25% of the party vote. Botany may well favour National but 25% is a number that surely can be improved on. But in this situation why would anyone in Botany care because once the by-elections he’s going to crawl back to Mt. Roskilll.

        A terrible decision by Labour. Yes its not a winnable electorate but as with all electorate there’s votes up for grab in November. And you needed to think beyond by-election being that its election year.
        • Colonial Viper 15.1.2.1

          4 February 2011 at 3:46 pm

          LAB’s simply not got surplus resources to to splash around in Botany, my bet is.

          But you are correct gc, the Botany by-election should best be seen as an integral part of the 2011 campaign for the electorate.
          • Zaphod Beeblebrox 15.1.2.1.1

            4 February 2011 at 9:38 pm

            If they can’t afford a few publicity shots and appearances by Goff in Botany what hope have they of funding a general election?

            GC’s correct. Votes earned in Botany will repaid many times over in November. The footage of the campaign will be seen all over NZ and the narrative that comes out after the votes counted will have the press parrot’s mouthing well worn cliches for weeks afterwards.

            And it will be easy. People in Auckland have had a gutsfull of poor public transport and unemployment in South Auckland is as high as anywhere in the country. What do you think Ross will be able to talk about- ‘economic mangement?’, ‘improved government services?’ My guess is that he’ll be hoping for a low profile campaign.

            If the wanted to show they cared- now would be the time to get out there. October and November will be too late.
      • mickysavage 15.1.3

        4 February 2011 at 3:45 pm

        A full effort is being put in but the party is very conscious about the PR. Over the past few years especially it has become more and more difficult to do anything without some sort of CT spin being thrown at it. If Labour runs hard and loses then it is a disaster for the party, if it does not run hard then it will be criticised for not trying.

        Michael is in an awkward position. He is an elected representative and needs to continue with this role. For some reason the same rule does not apply to Jamie Lee Ross. I wonder why Stuff did not ask Ross the same question.

        Most of the booths in the area were massively behind National last time. There is a corner in the electorate that is solidly labour and this will be fully doorknocked and efforts will be made to make sure that everyone is on the roll.

        Michael is a very good candidate, by far the best of those that put their hands up for the seat and he will be in Parliament sooner or later.
        • gingercrush 15.1.3.1

          4 February 2011 at 4:04 pm

          What a defeatist attitude. Stop complaining about how everything is so unfair for Labour and just do it. Besides, with a by-election you get free press. Make the most of it because come election day. There’s a hell of a lot more electorates being talked about.

          And I don’t see it being that hard for Labour to get some victory out of Botany. And I really find it stretching that Labour has no resources. Botany is close to South Auckland which proved crucial in winning the 2005 election. If you don’t have resources in that area of Auckland you may as well not contest the 2011 election full stop.
          • Colonial Viper 15.1.3.1.1

            4 February 2011 at 7:44 pm

            What a defeatist attitude. Stop complaining about how everything is so unfair for Labour and just do it.

            gc, as you well know, wars are not won by trying to win every single battle.
            • ak 15.1.3.1.1.1

              4 February 2011 at 8:21 pm

              Agree with Ginge, sorry colonel. Better to have tried pluckily than wimped out – not suggesting huge money but bet you there’s troops with mobility scooters or walkaholics that would be happy to deliver leaflets and put on a cuppa in a hall. Prove to those tories that there’s good people in their midst who have something bigger than lucre. Might surprise yourselves: look up Alliance-wins-blue-ribbon-Stratford-and-Te Kuiti-1998-byelection. (very impressed with you of late by the way ginge, keep it up young fella or felless)
              • mickysavage …

                4 February 2011 at 8:41 pm

                I can assure you that a full effort is being put in. If you want to help with billboards then if you show up at the Labour Fale tomorrow at 7 Fulton Crescent, Otara at 9:30 am then you will be welcome. Also if you want to do door knocking show up at any time. There is door knocking tomorrow and Sunday. And next weekend there is a plan to leaflet the whole electorate.

                The Fale is at http://maps.google.co.nz/maps/place?hl=en&xhr=t&cp=17&um=1&ie=UTF-8&q=7+fulton+crescent&fb=1&gl=nz&hnear=Auckland&cid=3551215149770857315

                Email me at michaelsavagepm@gmail.com if you want to help, especially you ginge.
                • ak …

                  4 February 2011 at 10:34 pm

                  good onya Mick, won’t be there, a million miles away but withya – flash the latest morgan poll, push asset sales and above all have fun. Tip: food and a cuppa’s important.
                • Jenny …

                  4 February 2011 at 11:26 pm

                  Afterwards don’t forget the pro-democracy rally against Key’s mate Mubarak at 2pm.

                  A good showing by Labour activists will win Labour a lot of kudos.

                  capcha – “aside”
16. bobo 16

    4 February 2011 at 5:27 pm

    Yeah John Key doesn’t dye his hair… http://twitpic.com/3w91a2
17. just saying 17

    4 February 2011 at 6:57 pm

    http://bowalleyroad.blogspot.com/

    Looks like we can count Trotter out of any new left party.
    Oh dear, how sad, never mind.

    QoT
    I think this may be the closest you’ll get to a response from him, to your recent blogs.
18. logie97 18

    4 February 2011 at 7:14 pm

    During tonight’s rush hour traffic there was a slight hold up on a busy hill.
    A car had broken down and the bonnet was up. The driver had
    a resigned look on his face, while waiting (one would guess) for someone
    to come along and assist him.

    The number plate was a dealer’s and several thoughts and questions came to mind.
    Good job a fault was discovered before some poor punter purchased the car off the yard.
    Where was this guy’s regular car or does he constantly take one home off the yard?
    Reminded me of the situation where boutique clothing owners would wear garments from the shop to functions for a night and then put them back on the rack…
    Can just hope that the poor guy hadn’t needed to be anywhere promptly tonight.
19. gobsmacked 19

    4 February 2011 at 8:48 pm

    “I can’t read, and I can’t count, so I’ll just have to be a journalist reporting on politics …”

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/4620392/National-able-to-govern-alone-poll

    Maybe they write this rubbish after (hic!) Fridaysshh afternoon drinksshh …
20. Sanctuary 20

    4 February 2011 at 9:52 pm

    You know, I’ve got plenty of good friends who everyone loves but when they start going on about their Amway/dietician/vague self employed business everyone coughs and looks about. Everyone still loves them and admires them for putting their shingle up out there, but sure as hell no one is buying.

    I suspect John Key is about to make this discovery. He is terribly popular in the leafy mortgage belt, and everyone just HAVE to have him turn up at their party. But no one is buying his offer, and while they still love hhim they’ll vote against privatisation in November.
21. mickysavage 21

    4 February 2011 at 10:18 pm

    It is late at night and few may see this but TV3 ran a return to McGehan Close clip tonight. It is at http://www.3news.co.nz/John-Keys-forgotten-Waitangi-girl/tabid/367/articleID/197161/Default.aspx

    It seems that the young girl that Key took to Waitangi three years ago is now in CYF care. And the residents of McGehan Close are convinced that things are much worse now.

    Key’s desire to obtain a photo opportunity should come back and haunt him big time.
    • Rosy 21.1

      4 February 2011 at 10:49 pm

      Thanks for posting that clip. I’ve always wondered what has happened to Aroha. It bothered me that she was used for that photo op. From the moment his photo op aired I decided I’d judge the man on what happened next. He put himself in a position where he could have made a difference to a child’s life but smiled and walked away.
      • Colonial Viper 21.1.1

        4 February 2011 at 10:59 pm

        This really fucks me off.
22. Jenny 22

    5 February 2011 at 12:02 am

    .
    Green Party:
    “Key lets down the Egyptian people”

    No Right Turn:
    “Something to go to in Auckland”

    capcha – “further”
23. Jenny 23

    5 February 2011 at 12:45 am

    .
    What fascism looks like.

    From Stuff.co.nz:

    “Cairo’s streets run with blood”

    Glen Johnson, New Zealand journalist living in Cairo

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/middle-east/4612238/Cairos-streets-run-with-blood

    Their chants reverberate, intimidating, car horns blaring. These are Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak’s supporters.

    By 2pm they have surrounded Midan Tahrir, the focal point of anti-government protests for the past 10 days, blocking off the exits leading out of the square.

    Men ride horses through the anti-government protesters gathered in the square, trampling people.

    Motorbikes scream through the streets, and patriotic songs blare from car speakers.

    The protests lack the organic warmth of the anti-government protests of the past nine days, protests involving all aspects of Egyptian society: lawyers, doctors, accountants, storekeepers, the unemployed, taxi drivers, women and children.

    The pro-government protesters are mostly rough looking men aged between 20 and 40. Their chants and slogans are crude and guttural, their attitude one of extreme aggression……..

    They are holding bats, sticks and knives. One man’s fingers strain around the handle of a large meat-cleaver, his skin stretched taught over his knuckles.

    Another tells me the anti-government supporters have brought shame on the Egyptian people.

    “Where will our country be without him? He has given us everything,” he says.

    A man scrambles into the alley, blood pouring out from a gash behind his left ear.

    The situation deteriorates rapidly in downtown Cairo’s backstreets. The clashes are extremely violent.

    Men carry sticks with nails driven through them and machetes…….

    Gunshots ring out regularly; banners wave in the sky.

    One shows a young looking Mubarak, a smile spread across his face.

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1. The Standard: posted on 3 February 2011 at 5:10 pm

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