I thought it worth carrying on with a discussion I was having with Red Logix last night.
That is around the potential impact of AI on our lives in the future. I was looking at the creative side of things. But, I think this has the potential to impact a number of areas, and should be of concern for us when we think about the futures of our children and grand-children with the way things are going.
I was first a bit shocked when my son asked ChatGPT to write a poem about me. The inputs were to write a dark 100 word poem about me, and that I was autistic, illiterate, and colour-blind. The illiterate and colourblind, definitely not. The autistic, maybe lol??
So it came up with one poem which I thought was quite good. So, I was interested to see what would happen if the same variables were inputted again. Would it just repeat the same poem, or come up with something different? Well, I think it came up with something better, and here it is:
Autistic, illiterate, and blind
In darkness, he stumbled and fumbled
His love for me, hard to find.
Colorless memories of my childhood
No bedtime stories, no hugs or kisses
Silent dinners, no laughter or smiles
My heart, heavy with his misses
He couldn't teach me to read or write
Or tell me the colors of the rainbow
But he tried to show me love in his way
Through silence, his love did glow
Now as I sit in the dark, alone
I wonder if he ever knew
How much I loved him in return
And how much I missed him too
Someone I showed this to said they were feeling sorry for ChatGPT lol.
The thing is, this is pretty good, and things will only get better from here.
He shows how people are now creating songs with replicas of the voices of popular singers, and how some people prefer the replicas to the original. He thinks it won't be long before record labels cut out the singer altogether, and create their own voices. In fact, if you spend as little as $100, there are some pretty good apps out there now to do this. For instance, have a listen to "Keela".
The point is, it won't be that long before AI writes the songs, creates the music, and sings the songs, and human creativity has basically been eliminated from the process.
On One News the other night, they had an item about Hollywood creators going on strike. One of their concerns was the possibility that AI could take their jobs. In the news item, a AI created film was shown. It was a bit rough around the edges, but simulated real people in the film. It was quite obvious that it is only a matter of time before it will be impossible to tell whether a film has real people or not.
So, I think the Hollywood creatives are justified in being very afraid.
One of my concerns with this is, are we about to effectively lose our souls to AI? The poem written about me seemed to replicate human emotions. But, the bot producing these presumably experiences nothing of the emotions it is emulating.
Another concern is that AI is not only going to impact creative industries, but many areas of our lives. So, what does that mean for future career opportunities for our children in 20 years time or whatever?
I understand that we have always progressed and opportunities have arisen from that progress. But, I think this is more fundamental in that anything we can do, AI will be able to do it better and faster.
It is the beginning of May and so far this year we have had the resignation of Jacinda Ardern, Stuart Nash, Mika Whaitiri and now Elizabeth Kerekere (off the top of my head)…all from the governing parties.
You may not consider that indicative of anything but from where im sitting its not exactly indicating stability and control.
good/better to clean house before the election campaign starts.
However, Ardern left because she was burnt out, and she picked her timing well. Nash left because he was doing his job badly. We don't really know why Whaitiri left or why now, Kerekere's position was obviously untenably all round. Those things are all different.
Ardern's timing was obviously about stability for Labour. If Kerekere was pushed, this also strikes me as being about stability (she was a loose unit for the election). Nash is retiring (he's not the only one). That leaves Whaitiri.
We are all well rid of her. I will never forget her sneering distain for submitters to the Parliamentary process who happened to not share her ideological viewpoint.
One of the better opinions about decling global population I've read – obviously because it fits my world view. However, there's a lot for those who still believe in the economic growth paradigm to think about – it doesn't demonise 'over-populated poor countries' or their people, which some of the doomsday narratives and blame-gamers do.
As the population and sustainability director at the Center for Biological Diversity, I’ve seen the devastating effects of our ever-expanding footprint on global ecosystems. But if you listen to economists (and Elon Musk), you might believe falling birthrates mean the sky is falling as fewer babies means fewer workers and consumers driving economic growth.
But there’s more to the story than dollars. Where our current model of endless growth and short-term profits sacrifices vulnerable people and the planet’s future, population decline could help create a future with more opportunity and a healthy, biologically rich world. We’re at a crossroads—and we decide what happens next.
You would probably enjoy Peter Zeihan. His thesis has pretty much been that the world won't continue on as it has been for various reasons, including demographic.
I think the areas that will reduce will be manufacturing to do with consumer goods.
However, other areas may increase. For instance, a lot of businesses will seek to automate to reduce their labour costs due to decreased demand. And, also, there is the coming influx of green technology.
So, there will be declines in some areas, but increases in others.
A fair primer – but he's still talking within the economic growth model, not beyond it – does he have an alternative paradigm – and does he have it in writing, rather than video format?
Zeihan has published four books. The most recent The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization is what you might be looking for.
Most people find his approach well worth engaging with, even if you do not agree with all of his underlying assumptions and conclusions. If nothing else he is highly educated and exceptionally experienced in this field – and employs a decent team of researchers.
He completed his post-grad study at Otago – and has a very soft spot for NZ. Comes back here for tramping holidays whenever he can.
You are correct – in that he is talking to the economic growth model in that clip, but he frequently acknowledges that humans have never faced this demographic inversion ever before – and we absolutely no idea of what economic model might work, or how it will pan out.
So imagine a world where advanced AI in lower-population economies and societies look after more of the drudgery than now.
No more driving or hauling. Fewer surgeons and nurses. Fewer teachers. Fewer lawyers and accountants. Fewer low-paid laborious jobs. Fewer farm jobs of any kind. Deep mechanisation of life.
Less and less trust in corporatised or politicised media, so people privilege actual dialogue. Far less human error. Less waste and manufacturing mistakes.
More interesting and targeted entertainment. More time to be creative and innovative in our own way. More ability to be good humans.
Most people are completely under-estimating the implications of below replacement levels of fertility. Right now South Korea – which is merely leading the pack – is at 0.8, and on track to be 0.7 in just a few more years.
This means that for every 100 South Koreans who are alive today – there will be only 4 South Koreans in their great-grandchildren's generation. Roughly a 95% population collapse. Pretty much all developed nations are on the same path, and so far there does not seem to be any organic floor to how low this will go.
AI might change the supply side of the problem, but will do little on the demand side because it will not consume in the way humans do.
Japan had a 'first mover' advantage in this game, they started depopulating two decades before anyone else. The strategy they came up with was to shift a lot of their manufacturing capacity out of Japan – where they knew there was going to be a shortage of cost-effective labour – to the locations where their markets are. And then retain the design and planning in Japan which has high margins and kept their economy afloat.
For instance the largest Toyota factories in the world are in the USA.
This worked for Japan because they really had no competitors in this space for several decades. But it can only work if you have a partner nation who still has the labour resource and the market for your product. When everyone is in the same ageing boat – it fast becomes a zero sum game.
For a wee place like New Zealand, what we've seen with COVID is a little precursor to low fertility:
Really high wage growth for necessary workers, especially in agriculture. Record low unemployment even for Maori.
Really fast shift in the kinds of workers needed, hence fast changes in immigration categories
Flatlining need for new schools other than in limited areas, and huge subsidies on childcare to keep people working
Massive premium on medical personnel, rest home workers, and rest home staff. Again altering immigration categories.
Massive pressure on housing stock to be ability-friendly, flat, secure, walk-in, semi-managed.
Explosion of home-based industries, startups, and workers who also have much higher choice to regulate their hours
Rapid digitisation of government, and accelerated withdrawal of shops from town centres including banks, post offices, supermarket and other checkouts. Again, far fewer shit jobs.
Many people have the intuition that when a population crashes, the amount of resources left to go around will increase on a per-person basis and this boost in individual prosperity will create a new homeostasis at which populations reach a sustainable, more-or-less constant level, or even start to grow. This intuition is wrong on three fronts.
In brief – there is no reason to think there is a floor on this fertility collapse. Secondly we have no credible or economic model that might be applicable. And thirdly – the linked article tries to express this – we greatly overestimate the relative scarcity of true creativity and talent. Those individuals who make the breakthroughs which keep innovation moving are rare. Really rare. Even with a population of 8b we still do not have enough of them.
In other words it is not at all clear that a falling population will have the capacity to maintain the resources to sustain even current levels of per capita human development, much less improve them.
And it does strike as somewhat pathological to hate your fellow human beings so much that anyone would welcome the extinction of 90% or more of us. In a moral sense it kinda makes your average mass murderer look like a choir boy.
So just to go through that articles' view of the downsides:
1. Labour Mobility
"Those who propose to “solve demographic collapse with immigration” are implicitly endorsing the creation of a toxic situation where the developed world’s economy is reliant on Africa staying poor."
That's not the way it's worked for Pacific Island countries for four decades. So much of their own home island economy is remittances. I loved hearing rich wineries beg for workers, and beg so hard they built accommodation for them, and have to increase wages fast. We used to have large scale employers like that and scarcity is doing what unions used to.
2. Breeding and Innovation.
"The sociological profile most amenable to what we think of as modern cosmopolitan society—one that is open-minded, pluralistic, technophilic, and egalitarian—is being aggressively deleted from the world’s population."
This weirdly eugenic argument might work in excessively xenophobic Japan. Perhaps we are all a great simmentals play. But the ex-colonies like Australia, Canada, US, NZ, and India know that their dynamism and success relies on the inter-border flow of people, ideas and capital.
3. The Family As Saviour
"Those who will throw their chips in with this massive cultural and demographic experiment by consciously creating a family, and then raising it in an intergenerationally durable culture, will shape the future of our species."
Women in the west who can since the 1970s abort children at will and otherwise control reproduction might humbly suggest that their human agency and wealth production and ability to innovate does not require conscious family production. Those who are required to generate families such as in most stern Muslim countries tend not to innovate and tend to be held back by this concept of family – and their population explosions strips their lands bare and turns their cities to squalor.
The authors of that article do acknowledge that this element of their argument looks uncomfortably close to the old eugenics of the 20th century. And in a world which now believes there is no such thing as biology, even the suggestion that talent, pro-socialability and productivity might have a genetic component that we are aggressively deleting from our population – is going to be met with vociferous denial.
Women in the west who can since the 1970s abort children at will and otherwise control reproduction might humbly suggest that their human agency and wealth production and ability to innovate does not require conscious family production.
And then in later life many deeply regret this lie they were told, mourning the children they left too late to have.
Those who are required to generate families such as in most stern Muslim countries tend not to innovate and tend to be held back by this concept of family – and their population explosions strips their lands bare and turns their cities to squalor.
Population collapse happening in Iran as well. Sitting at 1.71 in 2020 and dropping.
In October 2021, Iran's Population Studies Center warned that if demographic issues such as the aging population and drastic fall in birth rates continued to be neglected, Iran would go down an irreversible path of aging within the next eight years.
The further the fertility rate drops below 2.1 the faster the process. It's a bit like going bankrupt – slowly at first, then fast.
I first started mentioning fertility collapse a few years back, so its a bit gratifying to see it getting acknowledged and discussed. And it is such a novel and disturbing prospect – way worse in many aspects than COVID – that I don't think anyone even begins to properly understand the implications.
We have the richest nations in the world building bridges that fall down yet 2000 years ago with a world population of around 100mn, aqueducts were built that are still in use today. I'm pretty sure amongst our 8bn people there's enough smarts and ability to use AI and automation to eliminate manual labour, reduce engineering errors and enable a better quality of life for everyone
As an actual automation engineer I'm very much inclined to that view myself. If AI turns out to be an assistant and amplifier of human capacity – as seems a reasonable prospect – then yes I agree the potential is unlimited.
But just as money makes a person more of who they already are for both good and bad – I would ask that if we are going to amplify people with AI, then what exactly is it that we doing here?
I'm seeing problems if we don't address the social and cultural upheaval, for sure and humans are a bit shite at this – regressing into nationalism and all the other isms, but it can be avoided.
Compare for example Merkel's pragmatic response to the very well-educated, young, first wave of Syrian refugees to Orban's protectionism in Hungary. And, as Zeihan (above) mentions – Canada's immigration policy. Again though, they're working within economic growth. The problem of personal health services is problematic as well – and yes, Japan is already experimenting with technological solutions.
In terms of earth sustaining life, less consumption in our profligate growth economy (as you say, more time for personal creativity etc. and inherent value from that) is essential.
One reason why ACT, and National by extension, should never be allowed to get their hands on the Government tills and occupy the Treasury benches.
Ditching the dog-whistle and opting for the full-blown Alphorn, Seymour announces war on beneficiaries without even a shred of evidence to show that his underhand insinuations are accurate and correct.
David Seymour is effectively saying that all people in the areas that are most affected by recent weather events who have not yet filled out their Census form and who receive Government benefits & assistance will be cut off and left to dry. I cannot understand why anybody would vote for this fellow.
Those people already face a potential fine of up to $2,000. How many times does David Seymour and his merry band of privileged want to kick down those who are already down? It feels like a vindictive streak running their veins.
Toilet ‘humour’ seems to find fertile soil with certain RW politicians, e.g., Wayne Brown and his ‘joke’ about peeing on a NZH journalist. Of course, with a bit of (Google) effort one could easily dig up more examples.
Bugger, I’m slipping into the stereotyping hole, again
Just awful. Rotary members are generally tory through and through, have encountered a number of them over the years. Their party trick is ingratiating community service aka Philanthropy mini.
Those Restore Passenger Rail protesters surely need a medal for best timed protest:
Comprehensive passenger rail disasters this week in Auckland and Wellington, and a spectacular set of failures and tough reviews about Kiwirail's passenger ferries, plus being roasted by the Minister of Transport multiple times.
Stick at it protesters; you're annoying but you are right and your timing is perfect.
The three main operators have sold their towers off in a short space of time. And one has said they are moving to satellite coverage through Starlink. Details of how this will work haven't been revealed yet, but could be expensive, and limited bandwidth. Major advance for the large parts of the country where coverage is sketchy.
The towers are looking a bit like a stranded assett and may be seeing less use than currently. Taking them into two operators really won't change much, but will make the cell network much easier to regulate and maybe nationalise as essential infrastructure.
Point taken Graeme. So what I understand your saying is that you maintain that this sale is more successful than the greatest NZ salesman of all time who sold the "Yellow Pages" just before Google arrived.
There's also that it doesn't make much sense any more to have three competing networks of towers, and the 'hilltop wars' between the players are becoming irrelevant with satellite and 4 & 5G. There's a lot of shared sites now.
Around here (Queenstown) most of the sites go back to 2G when they were hammer and tongs claiming hilltops and fighting each other's consents. So you need three phones / sims to get good coverage, each has an area of near exclusivity. Having independent tower providers who compete on coverage and volume might improve things. Ideal would be a single state owned network
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Introduction Pickleball, a rapidly growing paddle sport, has captured the hearts and imaginations of millions around the world. Its blend of tennis, badminton, and table tennis elements has made it a favorite among players of all ages and skill levels. As the sport’s popularity continues to surge, the question on ...
Abstract: Soccer, the global phenomenon captivating millions worldwide, has a rich history that spans centuries. Its origins trace back to ancient civilizations, but the modern version we know and love emerged through a complex interplay of cultural influences and innovations. This article delves into the fascinating journey of soccer’s evolution, ...
Tinting car windows offers numerous benefits, including enhanced privacy, reduced glare, UV protection, and a more stylish look for your vehicle. However, the cost of window tinting can vary significantly depending on several factors. This article provides a comprehensive guide to help you understand how much you can expect to ...
The pungent smell of gasoline in your car can be an alarming and potentially dangerous problem. Not only is the odor unpleasant, but it can also indicate a serious issue with your vehicle’s fuel system. In this article, we will explore the various reasons why your car may smell like ...
Tree sap can be a sticky, unsightly mess on your car’s exterior. It can be difficult to remove, but with the right techniques and products, you can restore your car to its former glory. Understanding Tree Sap Tree sap is a thick, viscous liquid produced by trees to seal wounds ...
The amount of paint needed to paint a car depends on a number of factors, including the size of the car, the number of coats you plan to apply, and the type of paint you are using. In general, you will need between 1 and 2 gallons of paint for ...
Jump-starting a car is a common task that can be performed even in adverse weather conditions like rain. However, safety precautions and proper techniques are crucial to avoid potential hazards. This comprehensive guide will provide detailed instructions on how to safely jump a car in the rain, ensuring both your ...
Graham Adams writes about the $55m media fund — When Patrick Gower was asked by Mike Hosking last week what he would say to the many Newstalk ZB callers who allege the Labour government bribed media with $55 million of taxpayers’ money via the Public Interest Journalism Fund — and ...
Note: this blog post has been put together over the course of the week I followed the happenings at the conference virtually. Should recordings of the Great Debates and possibly Union Symposia mentioned below, be released sometime after the conference ends, I'll include links to the ones I participated in. ...
The following was my submission made on the “Fast Track Approvals Bill”. This potential law will give three Ministers unchecked powers, un-paralled since the days of Robert Muldoon’s “Think Big” projects.The submission is written a bit tongue-in-cheek. But it’s irreverent because the FTAB is in itself not worthy of respect. ...
One Could Reduce Child Poverty At No Fiscal CostFollowing the Richardson/Shipley 1990 ‘redesign of the welfare state’ – which eliminated the universal Family Benefit and doubled the rate of child poverty – various income supplements for families have been added, the best known being ‘Working for Families’, introduced in 2005. ...
Buzz from the Beehive A few days ago, Point of Order suggested the media must be musing “on why Melissa is mute”. Our article reported that people working in the beleaguered media industry have cause to yearn for a minister as busy as Melissa Lee’s ministerial colleagues and we drew ...
It appears Nicola Willis is about to pull the rug out from under the feet of local communities still dealing with the aftermath of last year’s severe weather, and local councils relying on funding to build back from these disasters. ...
The Government is making short-sighted changes to the Resource Management Act (RMA) that will take away environmental protection in favour of short-term profits, Labour’s environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said today. ...
Labour welcomes the release of the report into the North Island weather events and looks forward to working with the Government to ensure that New Zealand is as prepared as it can be for the next natural disaster. ...
The Labour Party has called for the New Zealand Government to recognise Palestine, as a material step towards progressing the two-State solution needed to achieve a lasting peace in the region. ...
Some of our country’s most important work, stopping the sexual exploitation of children and violent extremism could go along with staff on the frontline at ports and airports. ...
The Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill will give projects such as new coal mines a ‘get out of jail free’ card to wreak havoc on the environment, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said today. ...
Cuts to frontline hospital staff are not only a broken election promise, it shows the reckless tax cuts have well and truly hit the frontline of the health system, says Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall. ...
The Green Party has joined the call for public submissions on the fast-track legislation to be extended after the Ombudsman forced the Government to release the list of organisations invited to apply just hours before submissions close. ...
New Zealand’s good work at reducing climate emissions for three years in a row will be undone by the National government’s lack of ambition and scrapping programmes that were making a difference, Labour Party climate spokesperson Megan Woods said today. ...
More essential jobs could be on the chopping block, this time Ministry of Education staff on the school lunches team are set to find out whether they're in line to lose their jobs. ...
The Government is trying to bring in a law that will allow Ministers to cut corners and kill off native species, Labour environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said. ...
Cancelling urgently needed new Cook Strait ferries and hiking the cost of public transport for many Kiwis so that National can announce the prospect of another tunnel for Wellington is not making good choices, Labour Transport Spokesperson Tangi Utikere said. ...
A laundry list of additional costs for Tāmaki Makarau Auckland shows the Minister for the city is not delivering for the people who live there, says Labour Auckland Issues spokesperson Shanan Halbert. ...
The Green Party has today launched a step-by-step guide to help New Zealanders make their voice heard on the Government’s democracy dodging and anti-environment fast track legislation. ...
The National Government’s proposed changes to the Residential Tenancies Act will mean tenants can be turfed from their homes by landlords with little notice, Labour housing spokesperson Kieran McAnulty said. ...
Green Party co-leader Marama Davidson is calling on all parties to support a common-sense change that’s great for the planet and great for consumers after her member’s bill was drawn from the ballot today. ...
A significant milestone has been reached in the fight to strike an anti-Pasifika and unfair law from the country’s books after Teanau Tuiono’s members’ bill passed its first reading. ...
New Zealand has today missed the opportunity to uphold the right to a clean, healthy, and sustainable environment, says James Shaw after his member’s bill was voted down in its first reading. ...
Today’s advice from the Climate Change Commission paints a sobering reality of the challenge we face in combating climate change, especially in light of recent Government policy announcements. ...
Minister for Disability Issues Penny Simmonds appears to have delayed a report back to Cabinet on the progress New Zealand is making against international obligations for disabled New Zealanders. ...
The Government’s newly announced review of methane emissions reduction targets hints at its desire to delay Aotearoa New Zealand’s urgent transition to a climate safe future, the Green Party said. ...
The Government must commit to the Maitai School building project for students with high and complex needs, to ensure disabled students from the top of the South Island have somewhere to learn. ...
Mental Health Minister Matt Doocey and his Government colleagues have made a meal of their mental health commitments, showing how flimsy their efforts to champion the issue truly are, says Labour Mental Health spokesperson Ingrid Leary. ...
Recreational catch limits will be reduced in areas of Fiordland and the Chatham Islands to help keep those fisheries healthy and sustainable, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. The lower recreational daily catch limits for a range of finfish and shellfish species caught in the Fiordland Marine Area and ...
Energy Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed an important milestone in New Zealand’s hydrogen future, with the opening of the country’s first network of hydrogen refuelling stations in Wiri. “I want to congratulate the team at Hiringa Energy and its partners K one W one (K1W1), Mitsui & Co New Zealand ...
The coalition Government is delivering on its commitment to improve resource management laws and give greater certainty to consent applicants, with a Bill to amend the Resource Management Act (RMA) expected to be introduced to Parliament next month. RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop has today outlined the first RMA Amendment ...
Overseas models for regulating the oil and gas sector, including their decommissioning regimes, are being carefully scrutinised as a potential template for New Zealand’s own sector, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. The Coalition Government is focused on rebuilding investor confidence in New Zealand’s energy sector as it looks to strengthen ...
Emergency Management and Recovery Minister Mark Mitchell has today released the Report of the Government Inquiry into the response to the North Island Severe Weather Events. “The report shows that New Zealand’s emergency management system is not fit-for-purpose and there are some significant gaps we need to address,” Mr Mitchell ...
Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith is today travelling to Europe where he’ll update the United Nations Human Rights Council on the Government’s work to restore law and order. “Attending the Universal Periodic Review in Geneva provides us with an opportunity to present New Zealand’s human rights progress, priorities, and challenges, while ...
Associate Agriculture Minister, Mark Patterson, formally reopened the world’s largest wool processing facility today in Awatoto, Napier, following a $50 million rebuild and refurbishment project. “The reopening of this facility will significantly lift the economic opportunities available to New Zealand’s wool sector, which already accounts for 20 per cent of ...
Hon Andrew Bayly, Minister for Small Business and Manufacturing At the Southland Otago Regional Engineering Collective (SOREC) Summit, 18 April, Dunedin Ngā mihi nui, Ko Andrew Bayly aho, Ko Whanganui aho Good Afternoon and thank you for inviting me to open your summit today. I am delighted ...
The Government is delivering on its commitment to bring back the Three Strikes legislation, Associate Justice Minister Nicole McKee announced today. “Our Government is committed to restoring law and order and enforcing appropriate consequences on criminals. We are making it clear that repeat serious violent or sexual offending is not ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters has today announced four new diplomatic appointments for New Zealand’s overseas missions. “Our diplomats have a vital role in maintaining and protecting New Zealand’s interests around the world,” Mr Peters says. “I am pleased to announce the appointment of these senior diplomats from the ...
New Zealand is contributing NZ$7 million to support communities affected by severe food insecurity and other urgent humanitarian needs in Ethiopia and Somalia, Foreign Minister Rt Hon Winston Peters announced today. “Over 21 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance across Ethiopia, with a further 6.9 million people ...
Minister for Arts, Culture and Heritage Paul Goldsmith is congratulating Mataaho Collective for winning the Golden Lion for best participant in the main exhibition at the Venice Biennale. "Congratulations to the Mataaho Collective for winning one of the world's most prestigious art prizes at the Venice Biennale. “It is good ...
The Government is reforming financial services to improve access to home loans and other lending, and strengthen customer protections, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly and Housing Minister Chris Bishop announced today. “Our coalition Government is committed to rebuilding the economy and making life simpler by cutting red tape. We are ...
“China remains a strong commercial opportunity for Kiwi exporters as Chinese businesses and consumers continue to value our high-quality safe produce,” Trade and Agriculture Minister Todd McClay says. Mr McClay has returned to New Zealand following visits to Beijing, Harbin and Shanghai where he met ministers, governors and mayors and engaged in trade and agricultural events with the New ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has completed a successful trip to Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines, deepening relationships and capitalising on opportunities. Mr Luxon was accompanied by a business delegation and says the choice of countries represents the priority the New Zealand Government places on South East Asia, and our relationships in ...
New Zealand is demonstrating its commitment to reducing global greenhouse emissions, and supporting clean energy transition in South East Asia, through a contribution of NZ$41 million (US$25 million) in climate finance to the Asian Development Bank (ADB)-led Energy Transition Mechanism (ETM). Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Climate Change Minister Simon Watts announced ...
The Government is today releasing a list of organisations who received letters about the Fast-track applications process, says RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop. “Recently Ministers and agencies have received a series of OIA requests for a list of organisations to whom I wrote with information on applying to have a ...
Attorney-General Judith Collins today announced the appointment of Wellington Barrister David Jonathan Boldt as a Judge of the High Court, and the Honourable Justice Matthew Palmer as a Judge of the Court of Appeal. Justice Boldt graduated with an LLB from Victoria University of Wellington in 1990, and also holds ...
Education Minister Erica Stanford will lead the New Zealand delegation at the 2024 International Summit on the Teaching Profession (ISTP) held in Singapore. The delegation includes representatives from the Post Primary Teachers’ Association (PPTA) Te Wehengarua and the New Zealand Educational Institute (NZEI) Te Riu Roa. The summit is co-hosted ...
A stopbank upgrade project in Tairawhiti partly funded by the Government has increased flood resilience for around 7000ha of residential and horticultural land so far, Regional Development Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones today attended a dawn service in Gisborne to mark the end of the first stage of the ...
Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters will represent the Government at Anzac Day commemorations on the Gallipoli Peninsula next week and engage with senior representatives of the Turkish government in Istanbul. “The Gallipoli campaign is a defining event in our history. It will be a privilege to share the occasion ...
Science, Innovation and Technology and Defence Minister Judith Collins will next week attend the OECD Science and Technology Ministerial conference in Paris and Anzac Day commemorations in Belgium. “Science, innovation and technology have a major role to play in rebuilding our economy and achieving better health, environmental and social outcomes ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with the President of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr. The Prime Minister was accompanied by MP Paulo Garcia, the first Filipino to be elected to a legislature outside the Philippines. During today’s meeting, Prime Minister Luxon and President Marcos Jr discussed opportunities to ...
The Government has announced that $20 million in funding will be made available to Westport to fund much needed flood protection around the town. This measure will significantly improve the resilience of the community, says Local Government Minister Simeon Brown. “The Westport community has already been allocated almost $3 million ...
The Government is proud to support the first ever Repco Supercars Championship event in Taupō as up to 70,000 motorsport fans attend the Taupō International Motorsport Park this weekend, says Economic Development Minister Melissa Lee. “Anticipation for the ITM Taupō Super400 is huge, with tickets and accommodation selling out weeks ...
Local Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced an increase to the Rates Rebate Scheme, putting money back into the pockets of low-income homeowners. “The coalition Government is committed to bringing down the cost of living for New Zealanders. That includes targeted support for those Kiwis who are doing things tough, such ...
The Coalition Government is investing in a project to boost survival rates of New Zealand mussels and grow the industry, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones has announced. “This project seeks to increase the resilience of our mussels and significantly boost the sector’s productivity,” Mr Jones says. “The project - ...
Benefit figures released today underscore the importance of the Government’s plan to rebuild the economy and have 50,000 fewer people on Jobseeker Support, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “Benefit numbers are still significantly higher than when National was last in government, when there was about 70,000 fewer ...
The Government’s commitment to doubling New Zealand’s renewable energy capacity is backed by new data showing that clean energy has helped the country reach its lowest annual gross emissions since 1999, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. New Zealand’s latest Greenhouse Gas Inventory (1990-2022) published today, shows gross emissions fell ...
The Government is bringing the earthquake-prone building review forward, with work to start immediately, and extending the deadline for remediations by four years, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “Our Government is focused on rebuilding the economy. A key part of our plan is to cut red tape that ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and his Thai counterpart, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, have today agreed that New Zealand and the Kingdom of Thailand will upgrade the bilateral relationship to a Strategic Partnership by 2026. “New Zealand and Thailand have a lot to offer each other. We have a strong mutual desire to build ...
RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop and Transport Minister Simeon Brown have today announced the Coalition Government’s intention to extend port coastal permits for a further 20 years, providing port operators with certainty to continue their operations. “The introduction of the Resource Management Act in 1991 required ports to obtain coastal ...
Today’s announcement that inflation is down to 4 per cent is encouraging news for Kiwis, but there is more work to be done - underlining the importance of the Government’s plan to get the economy back on track, acting Finance Minister Chris Bishop says. “Inflation is now at 4 per ...
Refreshed health guidance released today will help parents and schools make informed decisions about whether their child needs to be in school, addressing one of the key issues affecting school attendance, says Associate Education Minister David Seymour. In recent years, consistently across all school terms, short-term illness or medical reasons ...
Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones is streamlining high-level oceans management while maintaining a focus on supporting the sector’s role in the export-led recovery of the economy. “I am working to realise the untapped potential of our fishing and aquaculture sector. To achieve that we need to be smarter with ...
Associate Agriculture Minister Mark Patterson is speaking at the International Wool Textile Organisation Congress in Adelaide, promoting New Zealand wool, and outlining the coalition Government’s support for the revitalisation the sector. "New Zealand’s wool exports reached $400 million in the year to 30 June 2023, and the coalition Government ...
The Government is making legislative changes to make it easier for new early learning services to be established, and for existing services to operate, Associate Education Minister David Seymour says. The changes involve repealing the network approval provisions that apply when someone wants to establish a new early learning service, ...
Changes to the Resource Management Act will align consenting for coal mining to other forms of mining to reduce barriers that are holding back economic development, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “The inconsistent treatment of coal mining compared with other extractive activities is burdensome red tape that fails to acknowledge ...
Trade, Agriculture and Forestry Minister Todd McClay has concluded productive discussions with ministerial counterparts in Beijing today, in support of the New Zealand-China trade and economic relationship. “My meeting with Commerce Minister Wang Wentao reaffirmed the complementary nature of the bilateral trade relationship, with our Free Trade Agreement at its ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon today paid tribute to Singapore’s outgoing Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong. Meeting in Singapore today immediately before Prime Minister Lee announced he was stepping down, Prime Minister Luxon warmly acknowledged his counterpart’s almost twenty years as leader, and the enduring legacy he has left for Singapore and South East ...
How will the recent wave of job cuts impact ethnic diversity in the media? In November last year, I was working a very busy day in the newsroom of a large online news site, interviewing whānau about their concerns over the imminent closure of one of the few puna reo ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ruth Knight, Researcher, Queensland University of Technology Have you ever felt sick at work? Perhaps you had food poisoning or the flu. Your belly hurt, or you felt tired, making it hard to concentrate and be productive. How likely would you be ...
Despite heavy criticism and an ongoing select committee process, the Police Minister says the Government will forge ahead with a ban on gang patches. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sam Whiting, Lecturer – Creative Industries, University of South Australia Shutterstock Everyone has a favourite band, or a favourite composer, or a favourite song. There is some music which speaks to you, deeply; and other music which might be the current ...
A new survey says ‘outlook not great’ for those charged with building infrastructure, while RMA changes delight farmers and depress environmentalists, writes Anna Rawhiti-Connell in this excerpt from The Bulletin, The Spinoff’s morning news round-up. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here. First RMA changes announced ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Olli Hellmann, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of Waikato Getty Images When New Zealanders commemorate Anzac Day on April 25, it’s not only to honour the soldiers who lost their lives in World War I and subsequent conflicts, but also ...
A leaked document shows the Canterbury/Waitaha arm of health agency Te Whatu Ora is scurrying to save $13.3 million by July. The “financial sustainability target”, which was “allocated” to Waitaha, is consistent with what’s happening in other districts, says Sarah Dalton, executive director of the Association of Salaried Medical Specialists. ...
A look at the state of the previous government’s affordable housing scheme, and what could come next.Remind me: What’s KiwiBuild again?First announced in 2012, KiwiBuild was a flagship policy of the Labour Party heading into both its 2014 and 2017 election campaigns. With Jacinda Ardern as prime minister, ...
Labour in opposition will be shocked to learn which party had six years in power but squandered any chance to make real change. Grant Robertson’s valedictory speech was a predictably entertaining trip down memory lane. The acid-tongued incoming Otago University chancellor administered a sick burn to the coalition government. He ...
Taiwan’s semiconductor industry is seen some as its ‘silicon shield’ against invasion – but how will overseas expansion affect that protection? The post The state of Taiwan’s silicon shield appeared first on Newsroom. ...
There’s relief for building owners bending under the weight of earthquake strengthening rules – and costs – that came into force seven years ago. Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk has announced a scheduled 2027 review of the earthquake-prone building regulations will now start this year. Owners will also get ...
Opinion: It has been announced that nine percent of roles at Oranga Tamariki will be disestablished, presumably to help fund the tax cuts promised by the coalition Government. I am reminded of the graphics used to illustrate pandemic events, where five thousand people are standing in a field and then ...
After more than two sleepless days, running through savage terrain, Greig Hamilton didn’t know if he was going to finish one of the most gruelling psychological assaults in sport. He was metres away from the finish line, a yellow gate made famous in a Netflix documentary; a race he’d dreamed ...
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The following interview with former Green Party MP Sue Kedgley came about because she features in the new memoir Hine Toa by activist Ngāhuia te Awekōtuku; the two knew each other at the University of Auckland in the early 70s, when they were both took on leadership roles in the ...
COMMENTARY:By Murray Horton New Zealand needs to get tough with Israel. It’s not as if we haven’t done so before. When NZ authorities busted a Mossad operation in Auckland 20 years ago, the government didn’t say: “Oh well, Israel has the right to defend itself.” No, it arrested, prosecuted, ...
NEWSMAKERS:By Vijay Narayan, news director of FijiVillage Blessed to be part of the University of Fiji (UniFiji) faculty to continue to teach and mentor those who want to join our noble profession, and to stand for truth and justice for the people of the country. I was privileged to ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Martin, Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University Three weeks from now, some of us will be presented with a mountain of budget papers, and just about all of us will get to hear about them on radio, ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dan Lowry, Ice Sheet & Climate Modeller, GNS Science Hugh Chittock/Antarctica New Zealand, CC BY-SA As the climate warms and Antarctica’s glaciers and ice sheets melt, the resulting rise in sea level has the potential to displace hundreds of millions of ...
The government's plan to reintroduce a three strikes regime is being strongly opposed by lawyers, who argue there is no evidence it reduces crime or helps people rehabilitate. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dan Jerker B. Svantesson, Professor specialising in Internet law, Bond University Do Australian courts have the right to decide what foreign citizens, located overseas, view online on a foreign-owned platform? Anyone inclined to answer “yes” to this question should perhaps also ask ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Giovanni E Ferreira, NHMRC Emerging Leader Research Fellow, Institute of Musculoskeletal Health, University of Sydney Last week in a post on X, owner of the platform Elon Musk recommended people look into disc replacement if they’re experiencing severe neck or back pain. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Hayward, Emeritus Professor of Public Policy, RMIT University anek.soowannaphoom/Shutterstock NSW Treasurer Daniel Mookhey caught the headlines yesterday, courtesy of a blistering speech condemning the latest GST carve-up. New South Wales, he claimed, would be A$11.9 billion worse off over the ...
While police are "broadly in favour", the government's proposed anti-gang laws are facing pushback from lawyers, rights groups and former gang members. ...
While police are "broadly in favour", the government's proposed anti-gang laws are facing pushback from lawyers, rights groups and former gang members. ...
By Miriam Zarriga in Port Moresby Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has arrived at Kokoda Station, Northern province, at the start of his state visit to Papua New Guinea. Both Albanese and Prime Minister James Marape will meet with the locals and the Northern Provincial government before they begin their ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Chris Wallace, Professor, School of Politics Economics & Society, Faculty of Business Government & Law, University of Canberra Shutterstock An important principle was invoked by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese last week in defence of the government’s Future Made in Australia industry ...
By Patrick Decloitre, RNZ Pacific correspondent French Pacific desk Security forces reinforcements were sent from France ahead of two rival marches in the capital Nouméa today, at the same time and only two streets away one from the other. One march, called by Union Calédonienne party (a component of the ...
A poll last August found that just 16% of New Zealanders oppose bringing back the ‘Three Strikes’ law. The nationwide poll of 1,000 New Zealanders was commissioned by Family First NZ and carried out by Curia Market Research. ...
The solo show from Ana Scotney is both sprawling and intimate, and a must-see, writes Mad Chapman. In the opening moments of Scattergun: After the Death of Rūaumoko, writer and performer Ana Scotney lays out the groundwork, literally. Silently moving around the square stage, Scotney is not so much dancing ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kate Burridge, Professor of Linguistics, Monash University Who makes the words? Why are trees called trees and why are shoes called shoes and who makes the names? – Elliot, age 5, Eltham, Victoria Good question Elliot! Let’s start with ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Duckett, Honorary Enterprise Professor, School of Population and Global Health, and Department of General Practice and Primary Care, The University of Melbourne at amRawpixel.com/Shutterstock Roles of health professionals are still unfortunately often stuck in the past. That is, before the ...
COMMENTARY:By Malcolm Evans Last week’s leaked New York Times staff directive, as to what words can and cannot be used to describe the carnage Israel is raining on Palestinians, is proof positive, since those reports are published verbatim here in New Zealand, that our understanding of the conflict is ...
In the case of New Zealand, the results confirm that there is no popular support for the vicious austerity program being imposed by the National Party-led government, which is backed in all fundamental respects by the opposition Labour Party. ...
The ‘Vampire’ singer has never visited our part of the world, but that might all be about to change. We assess the evidence.Olivia Rodrigo’s Guts World Tour is pulling in massive crowds as it whips around the US and Europe, even helping to catapult regular supporting act Chappell Roan ...
Testing of drinking water in rural Canterbury over the weekend by Greenpeace revealed that several public town supplies were reaching levels of nitrate above 5 mg/L - the threshold which a growing body of scientific evidence has linked to increased ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rohan Fisher, Information Technology for Development Researcher, Charles Darwin University It may come as a surprise to hear 2023 was Australia’s biggest bushfire season in more than a decade. Fires burned across an area eight times as big as the 2019–20 Black ...
Responding to the Government’s announcement of changes to resource management laws, Taxpayers’ Union Executive Director, Jordan Williams, said: “These changes are a step in the right direction in terms of removing ideological and unworkable ...
More than two years after the Human Rights Council called for the establishment of a national human rights commission, such a body has yet to be formed. ...
Comment:An emergency management system with wide variations in performance, significant capability gaps, funding shortfalls and above all a setup that is not meeting the needs of New Zealanders at times of crisis. The Government’s inquiry into the response to Cyclone Gabrielle and other severe weather events in the North ...
Welcome to the whirring wonders of one brain trying to align its actions with its beliefs within a system it thinks is evil. My brain has been spiralling in a woke conundrum ever since I found out a bookshop I’ve never been to was shutting down. Good Books, a bookshop ...
We repeat our call for criminal justice policy to be based on evidence, something the three strikes regime neglects to recognise – with no evidence that it either reduces crime or assists with rehabilitation. ...
By Koroi Hawkins, RNZ Pacific editor in Honiara With only four more seats in the 50-member Parliament yet to be officially declared, there is no outright winner in the Solomon Islands elections. As of Monday, the two largest blocs in the winner’s circle, independents and the incumbent Prime Minister Manasseh ...
Two/fiftyseven is a multi-purpose space hidden in the heart of Wellington that is paving a way for sustainable building and responsible landlording in Aotearoa and beyond.By 2060 the world is predicted to double its entire building stock, which equates to building an entire New York City every 34 days, ...
Popstars wasn’t just a reality television revolution, it was also a huge moment for Y2K fashion.It’s 25 years since girl group TrueBliss was formed on New Zealand national television, breaking new ground for both the reality television industry and the shiny clothing industry. With the first episode on NZ ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christopher Pepping, Associate Professor in Clinical Psychology, Griffith University Marvin / Shutterstock Are all single people insecure? When we think about people who have been single for a long time, we may assume it’s because single people have insecurities that make ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By William Geary, Lecturer in Quantitative Ecology & Biodiversity Conservation, The University of Melbourne Trismegist san, Shutterstock Landscapes that have escaped fire for decades or centuries tend to harbour vital structures for wildlife, such as tree hollows and large logs. But these ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rebecca Gladstone-Gallagher, Lecturer in Marine Science, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau Shutterstock/S Curtis Why are we crossing ecological boundaries that affect Earth’s fundamental life-supporting capacity? Is it because we don’t have enough information about how ecosystems respond to change? Or ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Matthew Crocker, PhD Student in Economics, Deakin University Here’s something for the board of the Reserve Bank of Australia to ponder as it meets next month to set interest rates. It has pushed up rates on 13 occasions since it began its ...
As part of our series exploring how New Zealanders live and our relationship with money, a charity director outlines how she’s saving for retirement and buying secondhand. Want to be part of The Cost of Being? Fill out the questionnaire here.Gender: Female Age: 45 Ethnicity: Pākehā Role: Charity director, mum of ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sophie Yates, Research Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University Many Australians with disability feel on the edge of a precipice right now. Recommendations from the disability royal commission and the NDIS review were released late last year. Now a ...
It’s been called a failed experiment and a judicial straightjacket but the government says the revised three strikes law will be a more workable regime, writes Anna Rawhiti-Connell in this excerpt from The Bulletin, The Spinoff’s morning news round-up. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here. Three ...
New Zealand’s Palestinian community and Palestinian Youth Aotearoa are voicing alarm and disappointment with the lack of factual rigour present during the Israeli Ambassador’s appearance as a guest on TVNZ’s Q+A With Jack Tame Sunday (21/04). ...
Both ACT leader David Seymour, who played a key role in drawing up the assisted dying law, and hospice leaders say it's time the legislation was changed. ...
Public submissions on proposed gang control laws are being heard today. Rising gang membership has been cited as rationale for a crackdown – but what do we actually know about how many people belong to gangs in New Zealand?What’s all this then?A rise in the number of gang ...
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I thought it worth carrying on with a discussion I was having with Red Logix last night.
That is around the potential impact of AI on our lives in the future. I was looking at the creative side of things. But, I think this has the potential to impact a number of areas, and should be of concern for us when we think about the futures of our children and grand-children with the way things are going.
I was first a bit shocked when my son asked ChatGPT to write a poem about me. The inputs were to write a dark 100 word poem about me, and that I was autistic, illiterate, and colour-blind. The illiterate and colourblind, definitely not. The autistic, maybe lol??
So it came up with one poem which I thought was quite good. So, I was interested to see what would happen if the same variables were inputted again. Would it just repeat the same poem, or come up with something different? Well, I think it came up with something better, and here it is:
Someone I showed this to said they were feeling sorry for ChatGPT lol.
The thing is, this is pretty good, and things will only get better from here.
Here is an amusing video from producer, Rick Beato on this. (pronounced Be art o).
He shows how people are now creating songs with replicas of the voices of popular singers, and how some people prefer the replicas to the original. He thinks it won't be long before record labels cut out the singer altogether, and create their own voices. In fact, if you spend as little as $100, there are some pretty good apps out there now to do this. For instance, have a listen to "Keela".
The point is, it won't be that long before AI writes the songs, creates the music, and sings the songs, and human creativity has basically been eliminated from the process.
On One News the other night, they had an item about Hollywood creators going on strike. One of their concerns was the possibility that AI could take their jobs. In the news item, a AI created film was shown. It was a bit rough around the edges, but simulated real people in the film. It was quite obvious that it is only a matter of time before it will be impossible to tell whether a film has real people or not.
So, I think the Hollywood creatives are justified in being very afraid.
One of my concerns with this is, are we about to effectively lose our souls to AI? The poem written about me seemed to replicate human emotions. But, the bot producing these presumably experiences nothing of the emotions it is emulating.
Another concern is that AI is not only going to impact creative industries, but many areas of our lives. So, what does that mean for future career opportunities for our children in 20 years time or whatever?
Or will it be that not that long in the future we will witness the last job on earth.
Thank you Smithfield- an excellent article that should be a post in its own right,
I have just read this story in the Guardian which suggests AI is a threat to humanity.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/may/05/geoffrey-hinton-godfather-of-ai-fears-for-humanity
First they came for the Jericho professional firelighters with their newfangled oil-lit candles.
Then they came for the night cart pullers when Kaitaia put in a reticulated sewerage system .
Then for the psychologists when we all finally get our tailored algorithms to almost completely cure all mental illness.
And finally they came for me. Double-shot mocha thanks.
I understand that we have always progressed and opportunities have arisen from that progress. But, I think this is more fundamental in that anything we can do, AI will be able to do it better and faster.
sadly they don't seem to ever come for those that don't learn from history.
Wheels falling off?
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/489360/green-mp-elizabeth-kerekere-resigns-from-party
Now she has "engaged the services of an employment lawyer".
This wreaks of an overblown ego and a sense of entitlement. Sounds like the Greens are well rid of her.
But the loss of one MP is hardly “wheels falling off”.
One?
Pat-I have no idea what you mean.
It is the beginning of May and so far this year we have had the resignation of Jacinda Ardern, Stuart Nash, Mika Whaitiri and now Elizabeth Kerekere (off the top of my head)…all from the governing parties.
You may not consider that indicative of anything but from where im sitting its not exactly indicating stability and control.
I forgot about Nash!
good/better to clean house before the election campaign starts.
However, Ardern left because she was burnt out, and she picked her timing well. Nash left because he was doing his job badly. We don't really know why Whaitiri left or why now, Kerekere's position was obviously untenably all round. Those things are all different.
Ardern's timing was obviously about stability for Labour. If Kerekere was pushed, this also strikes me as being about stability (she was a loose unit for the election). Nash is retiring (he's not the only one). That leaves Whaitiri.
The reasons (even if they are as described) are moot….the perception much less so.
4 (if my memory is accurate which it may not be) is becoming something of a habit.
not so much a habit as a series of unrelated events.
I'd be more convinced if Ardern hasn't been included (because hers was an ordinary resignation).
We are all well rid of her. I will never forget her sneering distain for submitters to the Parliamentary process who happened to not share her ideological viewpoint.
It wouldn't surprise me if she popped up as another Maori Party candidate at the next election.
They wouldn't want her
One of the better opinions about decling global population I've read – obviously because it fits my world view. However, there's a lot for those who still believe in the economic growth paradigm to think about – it doesn't demonise 'over-populated poor countries' or their people, which some of the doomsday narratives and blame-gamers do.
You would probably enjoy Peter Zeihan. His thesis has pretty much been that the world won't continue on as it has been for various reasons, including demographic.
He does a short video series on demographics as it affects various parts of the world.
I think the areas that will reduce will be manufacturing to do with consumer goods.
However, other areas may increase. For instance, a lot of businesses will seek to automate to reduce their labour costs due to decreased demand. And, also, there is the coming influx of green technology.
So, there will be declines in some areas, but increases in others.
A fair primer – but he's still talking within the economic growth model, not beyond it – does he have an alternative paradigm – and does he have it in writing, rather than video format?
Zeihan has published four books. The most recent The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization is what you might be looking for.
Most people find his approach well worth engaging with, even if you do not agree with all of his underlying assumptions and conclusions. If nothing else he is highly educated and exceptionally experienced in this field – and employs a decent team of researchers.
He completed his post-grad study at Otago – and has a very soft spot for NZ. Comes back here for tramping holidays whenever he can.
You are correct – in that he is talking to the economic growth model in that clip, but he frequently acknowledges that humans have never faced this demographic inversion ever before – and we absolutely no idea of what economic model might work, or how it will pan out.
Thanks – will look that up
So imagine a world where advanced AI in lower-population economies and societies look after more of the drudgery than now.
No more driving or hauling. Fewer surgeons and nurses. Fewer teachers. Fewer lawyers and accountants. Fewer low-paid laborious jobs. Fewer farm jobs of any kind. Deep mechanisation of life.
Less and less trust in corporatised or politicised media, so people privilege actual dialogue. Far less human error. Less waste and manufacturing mistakes.
More interesting and targeted entertainment. More time to be creative and innovative in our own way. More ability to be good humans.
Most people are completely under-estimating the implications of below replacement levels of fertility. Right now South Korea – which is merely leading the pack – is at 0.8, and on track to be 0.7 in just a few more years.
This means that for every 100 South Koreans who are alive today – there will be only 4 South Koreans in their great-grandchildren's generation. Roughly a 95% population collapse. Pretty much all developed nations are on the same path, and so far there does not seem to be any organic floor to how low this will go.
AI might change the supply side of the problem, but will do little on the demand side because it will not consume in the way humans do.
What are the downsides of low fertility like this?
Japan has been living with a few of the policy consequences for a while. Seem remarkably similar to NZ's own labour shortages.
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2020/03/shrinkanomics-policy-lessons-from-japan-on-population-aging-schneider
Japan had a 'first mover' advantage in this game, they started depopulating two decades before anyone else. The strategy they came up with was to shift a lot of their manufacturing capacity out of Japan – where they knew there was going to be a shortage of cost-effective labour – to the locations where their markets are. And then retain the design and planning in Japan which has high margins and kept their economy afloat.
For instance the largest Toyota factories in the world are in the USA.
This worked for Japan because they really had no competitors in this space for several decades. But it can only work if you have a partner nation who still has the labour resource and the market for your product. When everyone is in the same ageing boat – it fast becomes a zero sum game.
For a wee place like New Zealand, what we've seen with COVID is a little precursor to low fertility:
struggling to see downside here.
The counter- balance to that view is made here:
https://www.palladiummag.com/2023/04/06/birth-rates-are-collapsing/
In brief – there is no reason to think there is a floor on this fertility collapse. Secondly we have no credible or economic model that might be applicable. And thirdly – the linked article tries to express this – we greatly overestimate the relative scarcity of true creativity and talent. Those individuals who make the breakthroughs which keep innovation moving are rare. Really rare. Even with a population of 8b we still do not have enough of them.
In other words it is not at all clear that a falling population will have the capacity to maintain the resources to sustain even current levels of per capita human development, much less improve them.
And it does strike as somewhat pathological to hate your fellow human beings so much that anyone would welcome the extinction of 90% or more of us. In a moral sense it kinda makes your average mass murderer look like a choir boy.
So just to go through that articles' view of the downsides:
1. Labour Mobility
"Those who propose to “solve demographic collapse with immigration” are implicitly endorsing the creation of a toxic situation where the developed world’s economy is reliant on Africa staying poor."
That's not the way it's worked for Pacific Island countries for four decades. So much of their own home island economy is remittances. I loved hearing rich wineries beg for workers, and beg so hard they built accommodation for them, and have to increase wages fast. We used to have large scale employers like that and scarcity is doing what unions used to.
2. Breeding and Innovation.
"The sociological profile most amenable to what we think of as modern cosmopolitan society—one that is open-minded, pluralistic, technophilic, and egalitarian—is being aggressively deleted from the world’s population."
This weirdly eugenic argument might work in excessively xenophobic Japan. Perhaps we are all a great simmentals play. But the ex-colonies like Australia, Canada, US, NZ, and India know that their dynamism and success relies on the inter-border flow of people, ideas and capital.
3. The Family As Saviour
"Those who will throw their chips in with this massive cultural and demographic experiment by consciously creating a family, and then raising it in an intergenerationally durable culture, will shape the future of our species."
Women in the west who can since the 1970s abort children at will and otherwise control reproduction might humbly suggest that their human agency and wealth production and ability to innovate does not require conscious family production. Those who are required to generate families such as in most stern Muslim countries tend not to innovate and tend to be held back by this concept of family – and their population explosions strips their lands bare and turns their cities to squalor.
The authors of that article do acknowledge that this element of their argument looks uncomfortably close to the old eugenics of the 20th century. And in a world which now believes there is no such thing as biology, even the suggestion that talent, pro-socialability and productivity might have a genetic component that we are aggressively deleting from our population – is going to be met with vociferous denial.
And then in later life many deeply regret this lie they were told, mourning the children they left too late to have.
Population collapse happening in Iran as well. Sitting at 1.71 in 2020 and dropping.
Not sure that stabilising at 95+ million people by 2040 counts as collapse.
https://www.mei.edu/publications/what-irans-emerging-demographic-tsunami-means-tehran
And from that same article:
The further the fertility rate drops below 2.1 the faster the process. It's a bit like going bankrupt – slowly at first, then fast.
I first started mentioning fertility collapse a few years back, so its a bit gratifying to see it getting acknowledged and discussed. And it is such a novel and disturbing prospect – way worse in many aspects than COVID – that I don't think anyone even begins to properly understand the implications.
Have you seen this Red?
Welcome to the hyper-ageing nation that is New Zealand
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/300730132/welcome-to-the-hyperageing-nation-that-is-new-zealand
We have the richest nations in the world building bridges that fall down yet 2000 years ago with a world population of around 100mn, aqueducts were built that are still in use today. I'm pretty sure amongst our 8bn people there's enough smarts and ability to use AI and automation to eliminate manual labour, reduce engineering errors and enable a better quality of life for everyone
As an actual automation engineer I'm very much inclined to that view myself. If AI turns out to be an assistant and amplifier of human capacity – as seems a reasonable prospect – then yes I agree the potential is unlimited.
But just as money makes a person more of who they already are for both good and bad – I would ask that if we are going to amplify people with AI, then what exactly is it that we doing here?
Yep, I'm not seeing the downsides.
I'm seeing problems if we don't address the social and cultural upheaval, for sure and humans are a bit shite at this – regressing into nationalism and all the other isms, but it can be avoided.
Compare for example Merkel's pragmatic response to the very well-educated, young, first wave of Syrian refugees to Orban's protectionism in Hungary. And, as Zeihan (above) mentions – Canada's immigration policy. Again though, they're working within economic growth. The problem of personal health services is problematic as well – and yes, Japan is already experimenting with technological solutions.
In terms of earth sustaining life, less consumption in our profligate growth economy (as you say, more time for personal creativity etc. and inherent value from that) is essential.
Imagine that!
– MLK 1963 –
One reason why ACT, and National by extension, should never be allowed to get their hands on the Government tills and occupy the Treasury benches.
Ditching the dog-whistle and opting for the full-blown Alphorn, Seymour announces war on beneficiaries without even a shred of evidence to show that his underhand insinuations are accurate and correct.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/05/david-seymour-says-freeze-benefits-for-people-who-haven-t-filled-out-their-census.html
David Seymour is effectively saying that all people in the areas that are most affected by recent weather events who have not yet filled out their Census form and who receive Government benefits & assistance will be cut off and left to dry. I cannot understand why anybody would vote for this fellow.
Hard to call new low on this guy. It's like every time he opens his mouth he spews some new hate.
Punching down is his road house. Must be nice to be that smug and utterly indifferent to the human condition.
Those people already face a potential fine of up to $2,000. How many times does David Seymour and his merry band of privileged want to kick down those who are already down? It feels like a vindictive streak running their veins.
While English press otherwise wanks on about anointing another King today, actual politics still continues.
UK Labour is now the largest party in UK local government, for the first time sine 2002.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2023/may/04/local-elections-2023-latest-results-reactions-polls-close-england-conservatives-labour-rishi-sunak-keir-starmer-lib-dems-greens-live-updates
Top work Keir Starmer and team.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/auckland-rotary-club-apologises-over-images-of-former-pm-jacinda-arderns-face-on-toilet-seat/SIUOX3VUW5BW5BPYVD5SZR363Y/
Revolting specimens of humanity. She's gone from the top job yet they are still pouring vitriol all over her.
Highly respected members of society, no less! [putting away into the bottom drawer my pile of sticky labels with derogatory stereotypes]
From the text:
Oh yeah? Look at the image. That was an innocent joke? The team wore the effigies during the debate.
A picture is worth a thousand words.
And I understand that the chap in the picture with his hand in the toilet is Greg Moyle, Deputy Chair of the Waitematā Local Board. C&R of course.
Toilet ‘humour’ seems to find fertile soil with certain RW politicians, e.g., Wayne Brown and his ‘joke’ about peeing on a NZH journalist. Of course, with a bit of (Google) effort one could easily dig up more examples.
Bugger, I’m slipping into the stereotyping hole, again
Agree 100% Inconito and all.
They're so old anything that helps with a bowel movement is a blessing.
Just awful. Rotary members are generally tory through and through, have encountered a number of them over the years. Their party trick is ingratiating community service aka Philanthropy mini.
I saw a sharp meme about the astonishing revelations of US Supreme Court Judge Clarence Thomas and the ongoing imbroglio:
"Clarence Thomas promises to adopt Code of Ethics. For the right price."
Those Restore Passenger Rail protesters surely need a medal for best timed protest:
Comprehensive passenger rail disasters this week in Auckland and Wellington, and a spectacular set of failures and tough reviews about Kiwirail's passenger ferries, plus being roasted by the Minister of Transport multiple times.
Stick at it protesters; you're annoying but you are right and your timing is perfect.
Rumor has it. That the commerce commission has ok'd the amalgamation of cell phone towers into two independent identities!!!
Shades of our supermarket, timber suppliers electricity etc duopolys.
When will we get a govt that is willing to put a red hot poker up CCs arse and demand that they work for NZs peasants rather than corporate NZ
The three main operators have sold their towers off in a short space of time. And one has said they are moving to satellite coverage through Starlink. Details of how this will work haven't been revealed yet, but could be expensive, and limited bandwidth. Major advance for the large parts of the country where coverage is sketchy.
The towers are looking a bit like a stranded assett and may be seeing less use than currently. Taking them into two operators really won't change much, but will make the cell network much easier to regulate and maybe nationalise as essential infrastructure.
Point taken Graeme. So what I understand your saying is that you maintain that this sale is more successful than the greatest NZ salesman of all time who sold the "Yellow Pages" just before Google arrived.
Maybe….
There's also that it doesn't make much sense any more to have three competing networks of towers, and the 'hilltop wars' between the players are becoming irrelevant with satellite and 4 & 5G. There's a lot of shared sites now.
Around here (Queenstown) most of the sites go back to 2G when they were hammer and tongs claiming hilltops and fighting each other's consents. So you need three phones / sims to get good coverage, each has an area of near exclusivity. Having independent tower providers who compete on coverage and volume might improve things. Ideal would be a single state owned network
The Icy Commander.
5/5/1960
Word to Grant Robertson pre Budget:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DNxXRigHri4