Open mike 06/08/2021

37 comments on “Open mike 06/08/2021 ”

• Comments are now closed

1. Incognito 1

   6 August 2021 at 7:43 am

   Indeed, why?

   https://interactives.stuff.co.nz/2021/the-whole-truth-covid-19-vaccine/#/1202664949/why-do-people-believe-covid-19-vaccination-myths

   There’s no simple answer and no one size fits all, as usual.
   • Andre 1.1

     6 August 2021 at 8:15 am

     I still spend way too much time shaking my damn head about how much covid and vaccine misinformation and disinformation appears here at The Standard. That misinformation and disinformation that appears here is broadly characterised by the points in the link:

     But the bad information based on these premises has key flaws.

     Myths will often be based on half-truths. The misleading argument will start with a fact, but end on a faulty conclusion. It might use innuendo, or pose a question that is impossible to answer but raises doubts. It will cite research out of context.

     These methods are so common behavioural scientists have developed a framework for the five techniques of science denial, known by the acronym FLICC: fake experts, logical fallacies, impossible expectations, cherry-picking, and conspiracy theories.

     A key point of context for any idea or piece of information about covid and vaccines against it is how transmissible the now dominant delta strain has become.

     Delta may be as much as five times more transmissible than the original strain from 2019. That high transmissibility means almost everyone will be exposed to it sometime in the nearish future.

     Those that don't have some kind of immunity, either from vaccination or prior exposure, will get infected and diseased to a greater or lesser severity. Even some of those with prior immunity will still get infected, but their partial protection means their illness will almost certainly be mild and short, as opposed to the severe and dangerous disease suffered by many of those without prior protection.

     So the important context when considering any kind of risk or adverse reaction is: how does this vaccine risk compare to the same risk from the real live disease?

     Almost all of the highly publicised risks of potential very low frequency problems from the vaccine happen at a much higher rate in those that get the actual disease. Blood clotting, myocarditis and pericarditis, etc are frequent problems arising from from covid infection, but are very rare following vaccination.

     The sole exception as far as I know is the risk of anaphylaxis following the Pfizer vaccine. But this is a reaction to one of the ingredients in the 'delivery system', not a reaction to the mRNA that does the actual work of training our immune system to recognise and deal with the virus. Furthermore, provided the vaccinee follows the advice to stay at the vaccination site for the recommended 15 minutes or half hour, the medical staff on site will safely deal with any kind of anaphylactic reaction that occurs with no long term aftereffects. Scary to be sure, but as long as it's dealt with appropriately it isn't long-term harmful.
     • RedLogix 1.1.1

       6 August 2021 at 9:40 am

       Delta may be as much as five times more transmissible than the original strain from 2019. That high transmissibility means almost everyone will be exposed to it sometime in the nearish future.

       And when I suggested this possibility a year back – I was assured the vaccines would be the silver bullet to eradicating COVID. Well that's off the table now isn't it?

       I've lost count of how many times the 'experts' you tout so aggressively here have had to shift their ground. Their politiced, fake certainty has let us down repeatedly – when in reality they were learning as all this unfolded just as the rest of us are.

       But the point omitted above is that not only is Delta five times more transmissible – it's also become significantly dangerous as evidenced by the greater number of young people now falling seriously ill with it. This trajectory of greater transmissibility AND greater morbidity is in my mind an unusual signal – one that if it continues will be catastrophic.

       All diseases follow a path of high morbidity and low transmission, or vice-versa. Any virus that burned through it's sole host species by becoming both highly transmissible and lethal, would die off itself and normally evolution ensures this doesn't happen. But SARS-COVID-2 may well be optimised to respond aggressively to selection pressure in ways we simply don't understand yet.

       Personally I always said vaccines would be a valuable part of the toolkit – and I've had my first AZ shot last week. But that isn't reason to stop learning as this incredibly complex story unwinds.
       • Andre 1.1.1.1

         6 August 2021 at 10:00 am

         First, who assured you that "the vaccines would be the silver bullet to eradicating COVID" ? Link please.

         Second, someone who has made strong statements such as "First the Vitamin D debacle – now the Ivermectin denial. How much blood on their hands?" and "I realise the NZ left has good political reasons to want this COVID pandemic to go on indefinitely, but it's over:" really isn't in a position to make complaints about others touting treatments. Even if your complaints were accurate, which they’re not. Particularly since the evidence you cited for your claims about vitamin D and ivermectin have turned out to be total crap, whereas vaccines have turned out to be effective significantly above the hopes commonly talked about from March to December last year.
         • RedLogix 1.1.1.1.1

           6 August 2021 at 10:32 am

           My position has always been that we should consider every possible tool – and there remains plenty of good evidence to support both Vitamin D, and Ivermectin as probably useful. On the other hand it's clear from the outset that you have taken narrow line that tells us that vaccines are the only solution. Well how did that turn out?

           It seems to me that if Trump had one day idly mentioned that the sky was blue, you'd still be telling us this was fake news and all experts agreed it was actually pink with green polka dots.
           • Andre 1.1.1.1.1.1

             6 August 2021 at 10:50 am

             Who assured you that "the vaccines would be the silver bullet to eradicating COVID" ? Links please or withdrawal.

             You are outright lying in your statement "On the other hand it's clear from the outset that you have taken narrow line that tells us that vaccines are the only solution."

             Here's a sample of my comments from last year on the possibilities of vaccines or treatments;

             July 13 2020 "But a vaccine isn't the only option. Antiviral medications for treatment and/or prophylaxis are also possibilities that are being extensively worked on."

             July 7 2020 "So if a vaccine and/or treatment and/or prophylaxis simply reduced the effects of COVID down to the level of being just like a bad flu, that would be enough for resumption of a lot of what is on hold right now."

             4 December 2020 "Without a vaccine or effective treatment, risk from covid is higher than most of those. If the vaccine (or some hypothetical future treatment) reduces the risk from covid down to much smaller than any of those routine risks, then I'm happy to relax the fairly minimal restrictions we're still living with."

             You still need to back your strong claims about ivermectin and vitamin D. Actual links to credible studies. Even better would be showing where ivermectin and/or vitamin D have actually been useful in combating covid. Both ivermectin and vitamin D were suggested as useful treatments early last year. Surely if they had any value, someone somewhere would have worked out an effective protocol for using them that stands up to scrutiny, given how desperate the need is. Where is it?
             • RedLogix …

               6 August 2021 at 11:00 am

               Yet right here in this thread you're taking the strong line that everyone MUST get vaccinated with no nuance whatsoever. Comments from a year ago don't seem to be factored into your position anymore.

               This entire pandemic has been fumbled because it politicised and tribalised by people like you constantly touting a fake certainty – when it would have been a whole smarter to have acknowledged that no-one really understood this virus and that we needed to be open to all the possible tools we could bring to bear on it – without all the shouting down.
               • Andre …

                 6 August 2021 at 11:11 am

                 You haven't provided any links to back your assertions, and now you make yet more unsubstantiated assertions.

                 Where have I taken "the strong line that everyone MUST get vaccinated with no nuance whatsoever" ? Actual quote in context, please.

                 edit: When you find the quote you think you’re looking for, read it carefully. You’ll probably find it’s you that missed the nuance.
       • Incognito 1.1.1.2

         6 August 2021 at 6:27 pm

         The mutation rate of Covid-19 virus is low, but it so widespread that it is completely natural that we see variants developing. Currently, there are about 16 million known active cases (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/) and each of these carry zillions viruses – the average viral load in throat swabs was about 2.5 million copies of the genome (https://www.genengnews.com/news/large-study-of-sars-cov-2-viral-loads-yields-insights-into-infectiousness/). Mutation is part of the natural evolution process, not just for viruses, BTW.
     • Maurice 1.1.2

       6 August 2021 at 10:17 am

       And when the Lambda variant arrives …..

       https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2021/08/coronavirus-lambda-variant-of-covid-19-a-threat-to-humanity-scientists-say.html
       • RedLogix 1.1.2.1

         6 August 2021 at 10:39 am

         Exactly. The so called experts have constantly assured us this was just another zoonotic virus. Well so far they've not only failed to prove their case – but in preventing us from thinking about it's probable origin from a GoF lab escape – they've totally failed to think about what it's optimised to do in evolutionary terms and how it could react to selection pressure like lockdowns and vaccines.

         Not that these public health tools are not useful, but that we've gone about applying them very unintelligently. In the last quarter of 2020 we had a window of opportunity to globally eradicate COVID with a highly co-ordinated campaign that might have lasted six weeks or so. Well that ship has sailed.
         • Muttonbird 1.1.2.1.1

           6 August 2021 at 6:53 pm

           "Lab leak", "Invermectin", "Vitamin D", "bleach", "the pandemic is over", "it's the fault of the Left".

           The link @ 1 describes you perfectly.
           • RedLogix 1.1.2.1.1.1

             7 August 2021 at 6:46 am

             I do find it very droll to watch card carrying, hyper virtuous lefties like yourself jackbooting around social media as shills and enforcers for big pharma.
             • Muttonbird …

               7 August 2021 at 9:43 pm

               On this one I'll go with big pharma over the local vet.
     • McFlock 1.1.3

       6 August 2021 at 3:34 pm

       Delta may be as much as five times more transmissible than the original strain from 2019. That high transmissibility means almost everyone will be exposed to it sometime in the nearish future.

       Those that don't have some kind of immunity, either from vaccination or prior exposure, will get infected and diseased to a greater or lesser severity. Even some of those with prior immunity will still get infected, but their partial protection means their illness will almost certainly be mild and short, as opposed to the severe and dangerous disease suffered by many of those without prior protection.

       So, basically, we end up getting an annual jab tailored for the most likely variants established mostly in the Northern Hemisphere.
       • Andre 1.1.3.1

         6 August 2021 at 5:30 pm

         Yeah.

         While there's been lots of talk about booster third jabs, I'm kinda surprised I haven't seen talk of a booster with a modified recipe tailored for better efficacy against Delta.
   • WeTheBleeple 1.2

     6 August 2021 at 8:50 am

     It's really unfortunate the pop up clip when you enter the page treats listeners like pre-schoolers. I was over it in seconds.

     FLICC, as Andre highlights, is of great interest to me. They've nailed the techniques/misunderstandings people use. Like my recent 'conversation' (lecture from man standing over and jabbing finger at me) regarding climate/electrification had:

     False expert (electrician), logical fallacies (not enough lithium), impossible expectations (100% renewables now!), cherry picking (one ZB talking point to rule them all). Only the conspiracy theories were missing but I'm sure if I gave it a minute he would be full of them.

     I strongly suspect P is fuelling a significant portion of vaccine paranoia (anti-government (actually scared of being caught)) of many who are also attracted to conspiratorial nonsense as the substance fries the brain and leads to delusional thinking.

     How closely our P epidemic correlates to our conspiracy uptake is unknown. It wouldn't take too much digging to see if there's a correlation between meth and this particular brand of madness. Meth has always been a popular hillbilly drug. Anti-social by nature, cliques of users form and anti-govt/authority nonsense is reinforced by the group.

     Hope I wasn't too off topic there.
     • Incognito 1.2.1

       6 August 2021 at 9:30 am

       Social media and increasingly mainstream media are the new ‘alcohol’, not P.
       • WeTheBleeple 1.2.1.1

         6 August 2021 at 10:33 am

         Not sure I understand your reply very well, but I do appreciate that social media is far more responsible for the viral spread of nonsense than the cliques of hard drug users we have in every town.

         I've found a pattern that might not be true outside of my friends group – which spans several decades and ranges from homeless to rich and famous. The P users seem to be riddled with anti-vax mentality and tropes.
         • Incognito 1.2.1.1.1

           6 August 2021 at 5:46 pm

           Socially acceptable & perfectly legal (18+), easily accessible and omni-present, mind-altering & reality-twisting, conditioning & addictive, et cetera.
2. Incognito 2

   6 August 2021 at 8:16 am

   “The perspective that one has as a person of faith and as a person of science is to take all of the input of knowledge that we can get, put it all together and see what new understanding emerges, because it’s a system and systems have emerging properties and that is what makes them alive.”

   https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/sunday/audio/2018806353/dr-pan-conrad-when-science-meets-religion

   I might have to sacrifice 35 minutes of my life and listen to this interview with a most intriguing person. In the weekend.
   • Robert Guyton 2.1

     6 August 2021 at 11:50 am

     It's a very good listen, Incognito.
3. Adrian 3

   6 August 2021 at 3:49 pm

   There is no need to argue with anti-vaccers……you just have to wait….
   • KSaysHi 3.1

     6 August 2021 at 5:36 pm

     Reverse might be just as true (follow up tweet says, “If this holds true and is verified, this is looking more and more like ADE”)

     https://twitter.com/RWMaloneMD/status/1423332834282979329
     • Incognito 3.1.1

       6 August 2021 at 5:45 pm

       https://healthfeedback.org/claimreview/covid-19-vaccines-effectively-prevent-severe-disease-havent-shown-signs-of-antibody-dependent-enhancement-as-claimed-by-robert-malone/
       • Anne 3.1.1.1

         6 August 2021 at 6:40 pm

         Isn't it time this stuff being promulgated by commenter KSaysHi is removed from this site? It does not fall into the category of valid alternate viewpoints, but is a series of 'untruths' being presented as 'truths'.

         He/she clearly never reads the peer reviewed scientific material presented in response. I'm beginning to suspect they are a somewhat screwed up troll.
         • mauī 3.1.1.1.1

           6 August 2021 at 8:44 pm

           Anne the comment in question involves an industry vaccine expert. I'm afraid an industry expert might have a better idea on truth than a layperson such as you or I, or even a fact checker (with questionable motives). Science involves debate and discussion, it should never involve silencing opposing views.
           • McFlock 3.1.1.1.1.1

             6 August 2021 at 9:07 pm

             Scientific journals reject papers all the time. If reviewers think a paper is bullshit, it gets rejected. Or at least, should be.

             If misinformation is dangerous when peddled to idiots by parasites, no journal editor (let alone sysadmin of a political blog) is obliged to publish it.

             Flooding a discussion with bullshit drowns out the actual debate.
           • WeTheBleeple 3.1.1.1.1.2

             6 August 2021 at 9:12 pm

             Well, who's the 'expert' in bed with?

             "the podcast War Room: Pandemic, hosted by Steve Bannon, published this (removed link) video interview with molecular biologist Robert Malone, a former researcher at the Salk Institute."

             Seems he's just mouthing off to keep his profile high, drunk on the attention. Plenty of 'experts' around like this idiot. All because someone's brilliant doesn't mean they're not compromised.

             Another Trump fan judging by the company he keeps.
           • Incognito 3.1.1.1.1.3

             6 August 2021 at 9:20 pm

             … a fact checker (with questionable motives).

             I love it so much I decided not to moderate you for this one

             Feel free to counter the fact checker on their counter-arguments, if you can, which I sincerely doubt.
             • mauī …

               6 August 2021 at 10:07 pm

               A moderator probably should have been more occupied with the link dropper further up, with no attached comment or opinion.
               • Incognito …

                 6 August 2021 at 10:47 pm

                 As your friend I’ll give you some advice: don’t tell those Moderators what to do, because some don’t have your sense of humour
       • WeTheBleeple 3.1.1.2

         6 August 2021 at 8:19 pm

         But, but, the Barbie doll said!
         • Rosemary McDonald 3.1.1.2.1

           6 August 2021 at 8:30 pm

           Barbie indeed. You know you've made it when…
           • WeTheBleeple 3.1.1.2.1.1

             6 August 2021 at 10:16 pm

             I kinda like it despite that it's a lame PR attempt by Barebie (TM) to pretend it's not all about getting a ken and a malibu beach house.
4. Stephen D 4

   6 August 2021 at 4:13 pm

   https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/aug/05/around-the-world-the-disadvantaged-have-been-left-behind-by-politicians-of-all-hues

   There is a lot to unpick here. But a lot is relevant to the situation in Aotearoa. Especially the disconnect between the ”working class,” and the Labour elite. If we’re not careful, ACT or a revitalised NZ1 or equivalent will fill the void.
5. McFlock 5

   6 August 2021 at 6:31 pm

   Another <40k jab day yesterday.

   Also a fair bit of stock being built up.

• Comments are now closed

• Log in
• Donate
• Contribute post

• Articles RSS