It's a diabolically clever ruse to set him up to be the bestest ever tremendous choice to deal with the China shithole pandemic, because he's had personal experience with the 'rona and won bigly and weak snowflake Biden hasn't.
My sympathy vote goes to the staff in the West Wing of the White House who are infected with Covid – 19. It is best to sort your own house out first and Trump could not even do this. It was inevitable that there was going to be a West Wing White House cluster with a long tail.
Andre would know, but my guess is that US polling is just a read of the public mood like ours. I suspect trying to take the EC into account is too sophisticated…
Nationwide polling does not account for the Electoral College. Yes, you do really need to drill down to the state level to get a feel for likely outcomes. Having said all that, the general consensus is that if Biden is ahead by 5% or more nationally, then it's very unlikely the rotting rage papaya could actually sneak through on a freak EC result. If the state-by-state elections were conducted freely and fairly, that is. I have yet to see anyone have a serious crack at trying to forecast where significant fuckery may occur and how it may affect the result.
In terms of state by state polling averages and forecasts, there's the usual sites. My faves that I'm frantically refreshing and doom-scrolling every 22 seconds are:
Where things sit right now is Biden is ahead by more than 5% in every state Hillary won, plus Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. That gets to 278 EC votes with enough margin it would take some pretty awesome fuckery to flip.
Biden is ahead 3ish% in Arizona (11 EC votes). That's hopeful but pretty tight. A bit of turnout model error and a bit of reversion to Repug-voting historical norm would see Biden fall short.
Biden is ahead around 2%ish in Florida (29 EC votes), so that's well within usual polling errors and Florida fuckery. Still better than 2% behind, tho.
Biden is ahead by less than 1.5% in North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), Iowa (6), Georgia (16). Consider them true toss-ups at this stage.
Biden is within 3%ish in Texas (38), so within reach if turnout models etc have over-corrected from 2016, or more events push things Biden's way.
Thanks Andre! I'll have a look through the links and a proper read later.
Maybe closer to the election, and depending on what happens after our own, we can put up some dedicated threads. Let me know if anything springs to mind. I'm guessing ten days out might be a good time to start, unless we are all busy cursing the resurrection of NZF and are in coalition negotiation agony.
My working assumption is that Biden will win at this point. And his administration can hardly help than to be an improvement on Trump's. Maybe even as Ad made a case for, the old white Catholic guy will make a good President despite everyone's low expectations. I can but hope.
Still Trump has made a career of doing the impossible, over and again. And there are weeks to go on this circus yet.
I'd say Trump is feeling buoyant right now because of the effect of the steroids. A bit of steroid psychosis on top of his baseline disinhibition and lack of impulse control. He may relapse later- around the 9-10 day mark from the onset of symptoms would be expected- and yo-yoing in and out of hospital won't be good for optics.
That would not be 'kind', therefore would likely open Labour up to accusations of hypocrisy. And Judas Collins would absolutely love that. I doubt we'll see any attack ads from Jacinda. Steady as she goes seems to be the order of the day.
Good to see the latest poll on the cannabis referendum, from UMR, has yes at 49%. Duncan Garner interviewed a senior research fellow from the Brookings Institute, a polling expert, who said that in 2012 polls in Colorado & Washington State were running even leading up to their referenda & yet the latter came in with around a 10% margin for yes. He pointed to taboo psychology.
Plenty of voters don't have the courage to be honest about their preference if it defies the traditional prevalent view. They will lie to pollsters. So when you have a hegemony of belief that what has long been forbidden is morally wrong, progress has to come via subterfuge. Rebellion will be covertly done.
Kia kaha Barfly, it will pass 50%, many I know have listened to the science and what has happened elsewhere. Our areas advanced voting begins on the 10th, so voting then Cheers.
There seems to be powerful voices against it, Medical Council (against some members views), the arguement that medical cannabis is legal but omitting the fact that applications are rarely approved and it costs a bundle. Big Pharmaceutical wins again.
I am curious how the big breweries are organising against the reform.
So what is a pass mark to allow the legislation to proceed 50.1% of the vote, 50% of potential voters as many of this site pushed regarding the smacking law 😉60%, 66%.if it is close then there will be no direction given to warrant any change in the law.
As far as I know, referenda are merely indicative of the public mood – but much more authoratively so than polls. I haven't read the actual legislation that drives ours.
So unless someone who has corrects me, I suspect a govt will use the result as a mandate for change if they possess the political will to make that change happen, regardless of the actual percentage in favour.
It will be a credibility test for Labour if the result is close. Hamlet's choice: to be, or not to be (progressive).
If the Greens get to be in govt with them, I hope they adopt a staunch bargaining position. We need that progress to happen.
Remember how strong the political forces in favour of retaining slavery were. If you've read history you'll know that was a multi-generational saga. The establishment was split down the middle: the progressives, motivated by principle, and the conservatives motivated by vested economic interests and classism.
A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy, which is always followed by a dictatorship.”
Is this an iron law of political degeneration? I'm sceptical. Democracies have an inherent resilience due to being social organisms, evolving via social darwinism. Periods of ossification & stasis that produce despair in the populace can surge into periods of regeneration and renewal. Progress sometimes happens!
Persimmon observes that "progressive politics embodies the idea of movement". Conveniently, we have a PM concurrently campaigning on the basis of Labour's slogan let's keep moving, proving his point.
He refers to "a process which is known as the ‘Tytler cycle’." Here's how Tytler described that:
“The average age of the world’s greatest civilisations from the beginning of history has been about 200 years.’ Set against New Zealand’s official ‘start date’ of 1840 this makes for sober reading. In the course of 200 or so years, nations progress: ‘from bondage to spiritual faith; From spiritual faith to great courage; From courage to liberty; From liberty to abundance; From abundance to selfishness; From selfishness to complacency; From complacency to apathy; From apathy to dependence; From dependence back into bondage.”
Obviously if democracy were all about bondage we'd have a Reserve Bank issuing government bonds, eh? The ties that bind us into capitalism. We do. Left & right govts both do this, thus his critique from the extreme right:
Our political conversation has been framed for thirty years or more almost entirely by the left. It isn’t Winston Peters who is the ‘handbrake’ on the direction of travel. It is the National party, which is dragged like an anchor behind the socialists’ unstoppable tugboat.
Yeah, that was bold in the original, that sentence. Intellectuals writing for BFD readers can't make the mistake of being subtle! BFD doesn't tell us what those initials stand for, so we are free to guess. I like Brain Fade Delirium because it captures the normal state of mind of rightists nicely.
Collins placed a bet both ways by later declaring herself a “Christian feminist”… much like a Halal ham sandwich.
I credit the dude for being gutsy enough to provide a dispassionate critique of both establishment parties, but he seems lost in an antique time warp.
As we careen from entitled self-absorption to the complete abdication of personal responsibility, it cannot be a surprise that freedom has been centralised and independence controlled.
That centralisation and control descended from the British Empire, doncha know?? Not from hegemony of rabid socialists. Try harder next time!
Funny how that right wing rabbit on about"Freedom" and "Individual responsibility" while at the same time reducing democratic rights, increasing police power, introducing ever more restrictive search and surveillance laws, putting draconion requirements to access State help, restricting workers rights and calling for protesters to "ask permission first".
Anyone would think they don't trust people with, "individual responsibility"?
Individual responsibility is only for poor people. It loosely translates to "fend for yourselves, peasant scum". Increasing police powers feeds into the "tough on crime" rhetoric (always a vote-winner with the perpetually fearful) and further prevents the peasant scum from getting too uppity. Win-win.
"National's leader Judith Collins is facing criticism from within over policy decisions that at worst are improvised and at best did not consult the party's own spokesperson."
I am going to save the Taxpayers a heap of money. There is no need for the expensive review or investigation into the Auckland Council that Judith Collins wants. I know what the findings will be and am quite happy to share them
When Collins and her Act coalition partner are elected in October they can steam ahead with what needs to be done.
What is going to be the big recommendation? This might be novel, it might be new, it might be out of right field, but this is the way forward, THE ANSWER.
It's called, (drum roll) A SUPER CITY!!!
Let’s set up one of those, that'll work. There's no Hiding from it. 🤔
"The minister said, 'Oh would you like to come and do a prayer, Judith?' and I said 'yes, I would'. I didn't ask the media in and I turned around and there they were all happily taking shots, so I thought 'gosh, well, I'll just keep on doing what I'm doing'.
'Collins told Magic Talk: "I could have turned around and said 'get out of this house of worship you evil media', or I could have just done exactly what I was going to do in the first place. I would have thought they would have expected it was a private moment but they came charging in."
no, but it's probably on par with politicians kissing babies. Unfortunately for NZ, she's setting precedent as well as actively courting the rise of religious fundamentalism in NZ politics. The left needs better responses than we have if we're going to present something better.
A little wry humour about where salvation may arise.
The trouble with you, dear, is that you think an angel of the Lord as a creature with wings, whereas he is probably a scruffy little man with a bowler hat. Josephine Tey
and there’s more – I’m on a roll sorry –
It’s an odd thing but when you tell someone the true facts of a mythical tale they are indignant not with the teller but with you. They don’t want to have their ideas upset. It rouses some vague uneasiness in them, I think, and they resent it. So they reject it and refuse to think about it.
.If they were merely indifferent it would be natural and understandable. But it is much stronger than that, much more positive. They are annoyed. Very odd, isn’t it.
Josephine Tey
Lack of education is an extraordinary handicap when one is being offensive.
Josephine Tey
Massey’s bigotry found strong institutional support in the Protestant Political Association. Formed in 1919, the PPA worked hand-in-glove with the Reform Party to maintain the ascendancy of Protestantism in New Zealand. They were especially concerned to block the rise of the NZ Labour Party. Formed in 1916, Labour was strongly supported by New Zealand’s large Irish-Catholic community.
The success of the so-called “new social movements” – most especially in relation to their expansion of women’s and LGBTQ+ rights – threw the principle of Church/State separation into particularly sharp relief. Increasingly, Christianity retreated into the theology of evangelical fundamentalism, or, in the case of the Catholic Church, rigid doctrinal orthodoxy. Liberal Christianity was in full retreat as the principal protestant denominations turned their faces from the agitation for the creation of gay and lesbian ministers and the right of LGBTQ+ Christians to marry.
For conservative Christians, the willingness of the secular state to legislate over the objections of the churches, had made it necessary for the churches to take control of the state. The most obvious means of securing such control is to increase the influence of conservative Christian morality in the parties of the Right. If conservative parties could be made beholden to conservative Christian voters, then, upon taking office, their legislators could re-enshrine the moral certainties the secularists have so wickedly overturned.
Thanks to groups like the Maxim Institute, this seeding of the socially-conservative Right with Christian candidates has been proceeding steadily for some time. Maxim’s chosen vessel, the NZ National Party, has, for more than fifteen years, been choosing evangelical fundamentalist Christians to represent the party in safe seats. This has progressed to the point where Christian support, if not already crucial to the success of an aspiring leader, is fast becoming so. The recent departure of so many of National’s liberal MPs, and the projected loss of still more in the general election already underway, seems certain to strengthen the influence of National’s Christian Right.
They think god is on their side. I think not. Still, we can expect the ritual spraying of money around as if it were fertiliser – especially if sourced from the wealthy christians in the USA. Unless they use Pacifica for leverage, they will keep discovering that Aotearoa seems too much like stony ground.
In the 2018 Census, only 37 percent of the population were prepared to declare themselves Christian. Forty years ago, by way of contrast, the fraction of New Zealanders declaring themselves Christian was well in excess of two-thirds.
Had a plugin update this morning cause slowdown problems. Finally fixed by deactivating the plugin.
Unfortunately it was the second plugin that I was checking. The first caching plugin that was suspicious started off suddenly showing an expired license. It'd be nice if the suppliers of that had sent a email about an upcoming bill – because then I could have checked it for an old card. It expired at the start of the month. So I thought that was the issue.
However it was a logging plugin. Problem disappeared immediately when I deactivated that.
Oh well. that puts paid to the post I was about to write. Time to drink the coffee and e-bike to work contemplating the email I will write to each of the plugins company / authors.
Unfortunately neither Labour or National can ever fix this obscenity that stalks our country while they remain slaves to their neo liberal ideology..a sad but true fact.
" Unfortunately neither Labour or National can ever fix this obscenity that stalks our country while they remain slaves to their neo liberal ideology..a sad but true fact "
Yes market economics is the prison that has been created for us. Anything that is attempted by the two main parties is fiddling while Rome burns.
Maybe our next challenge will be how to find a chink in the prison wall and work on opening it up with our files. Let's 'defile' this sacred economic temple of the golden dairy cow.
Ex-OPCW chief Jose Bustani reads Syria testimony that US, UK blocked at UN
Unreported by all MSM as seems to becoming the new normal, MSM self censorship has reached levels that even the most cynical amongst us never believed that it would, all they have to do is say 'Trump bad' and most left leaning liberals are satisfied with their performance it would seem….what a disaster.
I noted in something I was reading the comment that the Syrian people when visited mid last century, were really nice, friendly people. It may have been said by Agatha Christie after one of her times in the Middle East with her archaeologist husband.
I wonder how things are with them now after receiving packages from the world's great free and beneficent democracy.
No doubt Bustani will be dismissed as another "outlier"
Extraordinary how so many of the left , so called , Louis Proyect for one, hysterically defend the corrupt leadership (all diplomats, not scientists)of the current OPCW
So much for my idea that advance voting might have been particularly high on Saturday and Sunday because it's the first time advance voting opened with two full weekend days – Monday was even busier with nearly 110,000 votes cast for a total of 271,000 so far in the first three days.
These people who were involved in WW2 doing important things for the war effort speak to the camera about their roles. I
It would be good if we could put our efforts into saving our world and our society today, so they can feel that their and all the casualties and sorrows to try to stop terrible things happening, gave a lasting positive effect. Otherwise, why bother caring when it all gets forgotten and repeated only worse. And it has to be more than voting and putting your hand out for those you are most closely connected to.
edit
Economists are good on anything – the go-to people for whatever ails you. Makes sense as economists decide on what we can have, should be and how we want to live.
Modeller and economist Rodney Jones says the government has been too conservative with its approach to the Auckland cluster – believing the city's restrictions are being lifted a week late this Wednesday.
"The toolkit we have is really first class in terms of contact tracing, testing, and particularly the genome sequencing that gives us an enormous understanding of each outbreak.
"I think we can take more risk and we need to take this kind of learning into a future outbreak if it was to occur."
Now when did economists ever know anything about learning anything for sure? If something goes wrong they just develop a new model – no probs, and not too much of saying sorry. So it's gone tits up – you should have been ready for that, anyone would know it was bound to happen and have the right gear ready for dealing with it etc. What’s a little collateral damage; one has to weigh up economic damage against human damage and see which side the weight is on. Oh business is up, we already have so much human damage in NZ, there is no significant change in the trend line.
This is entirely anecdotal and of no wider consequence, but my mother-in-law, who descends from 150 years of Pakeha farming stock and has voted National every election for 60-odd years, has said she has voted two ticks for Labour.
I've got a whole lot of relations and in-laws who are farmers, or retired farmers, good people but traditionally blue as. Some will no doubt hold their noses and stay in the fold, but over the last two years they all agree on a couple of things: they admire Jacinda's leadership (especially over 15 March and Covid); they didn't like Bridges; and they definitely don't like Collins.
yes, off all the leadership groups the nats have had this year(strong team?) the current one is the most unpopular. whatisname and the blonde woman would have been better.
Dinna like the roiling around of your comments. Cos I come in at the rational hour of 11 o'clock, no response. I mention Yertle the Turtle and the short touch of the 'art of the possible' (swimming term, 'short touch') and youse play bullshit. Unlike you careerists I put truth , and so reality, first.
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Foreign Minister Winston Peters is understood to be planning a major speech within the next fortnight to clear up the confusion over whether or not New Zealand might join the AUKUS submarine project. So far, there have been conflicting signals from the Government. RNZ reported the Prime Minister yesterday in ...
Life throws curveballs, and sometimes, those curveballs necessitate wiping your iPhone clean and starting anew. Whether you’re facing persistent software glitches, preparing to sell your device, or simply wanting a fresh start, knowing how to factory reset iPhone without a computer is a valuable skill. While using a computer with ...
Gone are the days when communication was limited to landline phones and physical proximity. Today, computers have become powerful tools for connecting with people across the globe through voice and video calls. But with a plethora of applications and methods available, how to call someone on a computer might seem ...
Open access notables Glacial isostatic adjustment reduces past and future Arctic subsea permafrost, Creel et al., Nature Communications:Sea-level rise submerges terrestrial permafrost in the Arctic, turning it into subsea permafrost. Subsea permafrost underlies ~ 1.8 million km2 of Arctic continental shelf, with thicknesses in places exceeding 700 m. Sea-level variations over glacial-interglacial cycles control ...
The operating system (OS) is the heart and soul of a computer, orchestrating every action and interaction between hardware and software. But have you ever wondered where on a computer is the operating system generally stored? The answer lies in the intricate dance between hardware and software components, particularly within ...
Laptops have become essential tools for work, entertainment, and communication, offering portability and functionality. However, with rising energy costs and growing environmental concerns, understanding a laptop’s power consumption is more important than ever. So, how many watts does a laptop use? The answer, unfortunately, isn’t straightforward. It depends on several ...
Screen recording has become an essential tool for various purposes, such as creating tutorials, capturing gameplay footage, recording online meetings, or sharing information with others. Fortunately, Dell laptops offer several built-in and external options for screen recording, catering to different needs and preferences. This guide will explore various methods on ...
A cracked or damaged laptop screen can be a frustrating experience, impacting productivity and enjoyment. Fortunately, laptop screen repair is a common service offered by various repair shops and technicians. However, the cost of fixing a laptop screen can vary significantly depending on several factors. This article delves into the ...
Gaming laptops represent a significant investment for passionate gamers, offering portability and powerful performance for immersive gaming experiences. However, a common concern among potential buyers is their lifespan. Unlike desktop PCs, which allow for easier component upgrades, gaming laptops have inherent limitations due to their compact and integrated design. This ...
The annual inventory report of New Zealand's greenhouse gas emissions has been released, showing that gross emissions have dropped for the third year in a row, to 78.4 million tons: All-told gross emissions have decreased by over 6 million tons since the Zero Carbon Act was passed in 2019. ...
Experiencing a locked computer can be frustrating, especially when you need access to your files and applications urgently. The methods to unlock your computer will vary depending on the specific situation and the type of lock you encounter. This guide will explore various scenarios and provide step-by-step instructions on how ...
While the world has largely transitioned to digital communication, faxing still holds relevance in certain industries and situations. Fortunately, gone are the days of bulky fax machines and dedicated phone lines. Today, you can easily send and receive faxes directly from your computer, offering a convenient and efficient way to ...
In our increasingly digital world, home computers have become essential tools for work, communication, entertainment, and more. However, this increased reliance on technology also exposes us to various cyber threats. Understanding these threats and taking proactive steps to protect your home computer is crucial for safeguarding your personal information, finances, ...
In the ever-evolving world of technology, server-based computing has emerged as a cornerstone of modern digital infrastructure. This article delves into the concept of server-based computing, exploring its various forms, benefits, challenges, and its impact on the way we work and interact with technology. Understanding Server-Based Computing: At its core, ...
The absolute brass neck of this guy.We want more medical doctors, not more spin doctors, Luxon was saying a couple of weeks ago, and now we’re told the guy has seven salaried adults on TikTok duty. Sorry, doing social media. The absolute brass neck of it. The irony that the ...
Buzz from the Beehive Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones relishes spatting and eagerly takes issue with environmentalists who criticise his enthusiasm for resource development. He relishes helping the fishing industry too. And so today, while the media are making much of the latest culling in the public service to ...
Having written, taught and worked for the US government on issues involving unconventional warfare and terrorism for 30-odd years, two things irritate me the most when the subject is discussed in public. The first is the Johnny-come-lately academics-turned-media commentators who … Continue reading → ...
Eric Crampton writes – Kainga Ora is the government’s house building agency. It’s been building a lot of social housing. Kainga Ora has its own (but independent) consenting authority, Consentium. It’s a neat idea. Rather than have to deal with building consents across each different territorial authority, Kainga Ora ...
Muriel Newman writes – The Coalition Government says it is moving with speed to deliver campaign promises and reverse the damage done by Labour. One of their key commitments is to “defend the principle that New Zealanders are equal before the law.” To achieve this, they have pledged they “will not advance ...
Chris Trotter writes – The absence of anything resembling a fightback from the public servants currently losing their jobs is interesting. State-sector workers’ collective fatalism in the face of Coalition cutbacks indicates a surprisingly broad acceptance of impermanence in the workplace. Fifty years ago, lay-offs in the thousands ...
The Green Party has joined the call for public submissions on the fast-track legislation to be extended after the Ombudsman forced the Government to release the list of organisations invited to apply just hours before submissions close. ...
New Zealand’s good work at reducing climate emissions for three years in a row will be undone by the National government’s lack of ambition and scrapping programmes that were making a difference, Labour Party climate spokesperson Megan Woods said today. ...
More essential jobs could be on the chopping block, this time Ministry of Education staff on the school lunches team are set to find out whether they're in line to lose their jobs. ...
The Government is trying to bring in a law that will allow Ministers to cut corners and kill off native species, Labour environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said. ...
Cancelling urgently needed new Cook Strait ferries and hiking the cost of public transport for many Kiwis so that National can announce the prospect of another tunnel for Wellington is not making good choices, Labour Transport Spokesperson Tangi Utikere said. ...
A laundry list of additional costs for Tāmaki Makarau Auckland shows the Minister for the city is not delivering for the people who live there, says Labour Auckland Issues spokesperson Shanan Halbert. ...
The Green Party has today launched a step-by-step guide to help New Zealanders make their voice heard on the Government’s democracy dodging and anti-environment fast track legislation. ...
The National Government’s proposed changes to the Residential Tenancies Act will mean tenants can be turfed from their homes by landlords with little notice, Labour housing spokesperson Kieran McAnulty said. ...
Green Party co-leader Marama Davidson is calling on all parties to support a common-sense change that’s great for the planet and great for consumers after her member’s bill was drawn from the ballot today. ...
A significant milestone has been reached in the fight to strike an anti-Pasifika and unfair law from the country’s books after Teanau Tuiono’s members’ bill passed its first reading. ...
New Zealand has today missed the opportunity to uphold the right to a clean, healthy, and sustainable environment, says James Shaw after his member’s bill was voted down in its first reading. ...
Today’s advice from the Climate Change Commission paints a sobering reality of the challenge we face in combating climate change, especially in light of recent Government policy announcements. ...
Minister for Disability Issues Penny Simmonds appears to have delayed a report back to Cabinet on the progress New Zealand is making against international obligations for disabled New Zealanders. ...
The Government’s newly announced review of methane emissions reduction targets hints at its desire to delay Aotearoa New Zealand’s urgent transition to a climate safe future, the Green Party said. ...
The Government must commit to the Maitai School building project for students with high and complex needs, to ensure disabled students from the top of the South Island have somewhere to learn. ...
Mental Health Minister Matt Doocey and his Government colleagues have made a meal of their mental health commitments, showing how flimsy their efforts to champion the issue truly are, says Labour Mental Health spokesperson Ingrid Leary. ...
Māori are yet to see anything from this Government except cuts, reversals and taking our people backwards, Māori Development spokesperson Willie Jackson said. ...
The Coalition Government’s refusal to commit to ongoing funding for social housing is seeing the sector pull back on developments and families watch their dreams of securing a home fade away, says Labour Housing spokesperson Kieran McAnulty. ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has completed a successful trip to Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines, deepening relationships and capitalising on opportunities. Mr Luxon was accompanied by a business delegation and says the choice of countries represents the priority the New Zealand Government places on South East Asia, and our relationships in ...
New Zealand is demonstrating its commitment to reducing global greenhouse emissions, and supporting clean energy transition in South East Asia, through a contribution of NZ$41 million (US$25 million) in climate finance to the Asian Development Bank (ADB)-led Energy Transition Mechanism (ETM). Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Climate Change Minister Simon Watts announced ...
The Government is today releasing a list of organisations who received letters about the Fast-track applications process, says RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop. “Recently Ministers and agencies have received a series of OIA requests for a list of organisations to whom I wrote with information on applying to have a ...
Attorney-General Judith Collins today announced the appointment of Wellington Barrister David Jonathan Boldt as a Judge of the High Court, and the Honourable Justice Matthew Palmer as a Judge of the Court of Appeal. Justice Boldt graduated with an LLB from Victoria University of Wellington in 1990, and also holds ...
Education Minister Erica Stanford will lead the New Zealand delegation at the 2024 International Summit on the Teaching Profession (ISTP) held in Singapore. The delegation includes representatives from the Post Primary Teachers’ Association (PPTA) Te Wehengarua and the New Zealand Educational Institute (NZEI) Te Riu Roa. The summit is co-hosted ...
A stopbank upgrade project in Tairawhiti partly funded by the Government has increased flood resilience for around 7000ha of residential and horticultural land so far, Regional Development Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones today attended a dawn service in Gisborne to mark the end of the first stage of the ...
Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters will represent the Government at Anzac Day commemorations on the Gallipoli Peninsula next week and engage with senior representatives of the Turkish government in Istanbul. “The Gallipoli campaign is a defining event in our history. It will be a privilege to share the occasion ...
Science, Innovation and Technology and Defence Minister Judith Collins will next week attend the OECD Science and Technology Ministerial conference in Paris and Anzac Day commemorations in Belgium. “Science, innovation and technology have a major role to play in rebuilding our economy and achieving better health, environmental and social outcomes ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with the President of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr. The Prime Minister was accompanied by MP Paulo Garcia, the first Filipino to be elected to a legislature outside the Philippines. During today’s meeting, Prime Minister Luxon and President Marcos Jr discussed opportunities to ...
The Government has announced that $20 million in funding will be made available to Westport to fund much needed flood protection around the town. This measure will significantly improve the resilience of the community, says Local Government Minister Simeon Brown. “The Westport community has already been allocated almost $3 million ...
The Government is proud to support the first ever Repco Supercars Championship event in Taupō as up to 70,000 motorsport fans attend the Taupō International Motorsport Park this weekend, says Economic Development Minister Melissa Lee. “Anticipation for the ITM Taupō Super400 is huge, with tickets and accommodation selling out weeks ...
Local Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced an increase to the Rates Rebate Scheme, putting money back into the pockets of low-income homeowners. “The coalition Government is committed to bringing down the cost of living for New Zealanders. That includes targeted support for those Kiwis who are doing things tough, such ...
The Coalition Government is investing in a project to boost survival rates of New Zealand mussels and grow the industry, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones has announced. “This project seeks to increase the resilience of our mussels and significantly boost the sector’s productivity,” Mr Jones says. “The project - ...
Benefit figures released today underscore the importance of the Government’s plan to rebuild the economy and have 50,000 fewer people on Jobseeker Support, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “Benefit numbers are still significantly higher than when National was last in government, when there was about 70,000 fewer ...
The Government’s commitment to doubling New Zealand’s renewable energy capacity is backed by new data showing that clean energy has helped the country reach its lowest annual gross emissions since 1999, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. New Zealand’s latest Greenhouse Gas Inventory (1990-2022) published today, shows gross emissions fell ...
The Government is bringing the earthquake-prone building review forward, with work to start immediately, and extending the deadline for remediations by four years, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “Our Government is focused on rebuilding the economy. A key part of our plan is to cut red tape that ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and his Thai counterpart, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, have today agreed that New Zealand and the Kingdom of Thailand will upgrade the bilateral relationship to a Strategic Partnership by 2026. “New Zealand and Thailand have a lot to offer each other. We have a strong mutual desire to build ...
RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop and Transport Minister Simeon Brown have today announced the Coalition Government’s intention to extend port coastal permits for a further 20 years, providing port operators with certainty to continue their operations. “The introduction of the Resource Management Act in 1991 required ports to obtain coastal ...
Today’s announcement that inflation is down to 4 per cent is encouraging news for Kiwis, but there is more work to be done - underlining the importance of the Government’s plan to get the economy back on track, acting Finance Minister Chris Bishop says. “Inflation is now at 4 per ...
Refreshed health guidance released today will help parents and schools make informed decisions about whether their child needs to be in school, addressing one of the key issues affecting school attendance, says Associate Education Minister David Seymour. In recent years, consistently across all school terms, short-term illness or medical reasons ...
Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones is streamlining high-level oceans management while maintaining a focus on supporting the sector’s role in the export-led recovery of the economy. “I am working to realise the untapped potential of our fishing and aquaculture sector. To achieve that we need to be smarter with ...
Associate Agriculture Minister Mark Patterson is speaking at the International Wool Textile Organisation Congress in Adelaide, promoting New Zealand wool, and outlining the coalition Government’s support for the revitalisation the sector. "New Zealand’s wool exports reached $400 million in the year to 30 June 2023, and the coalition Government ...
The Government is making legislative changes to make it easier for new early learning services to be established, and for existing services to operate, Associate Education Minister David Seymour says. The changes involve repealing the network approval provisions that apply when someone wants to establish a new early learning service, ...
Changes to the Resource Management Act will align consenting for coal mining to other forms of mining to reduce barriers that are holding back economic development, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “The inconsistent treatment of coal mining compared with other extractive activities is burdensome red tape that fails to acknowledge ...
Trade, Agriculture and Forestry Minister Todd McClay has concluded productive discussions with ministerial counterparts in Beijing today, in support of the New Zealand-China trade and economic relationship. “My meeting with Commerce Minister Wang Wentao reaffirmed the complementary nature of the bilateral trade relationship, with our Free Trade Agreement at its ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon today paid tribute to Singapore’s outgoing Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong. Meeting in Singapore today immediately before Prime Minister Lee announced he was stepping down, Prime Minister Luxon warmly acknowledged his counterpart’s almost twenty years as leader, and the enduring legacy he has left for Singapore and South East ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong. While in Singapore as part of his visit to South East Asia this week, Prime Minister Luxon also met with Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam and will meet with Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong. During today’s meeting, Prime Minister Luxon ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters has made further appointments to the Board of Antarctica New Zealand as part of a continued effort to ensure the Scott Base Redevelopment project is delivered in a cost-effective and efficient manner. The Minister has appointed Neville Harris as a new member of the Board. Mr ...
Finance Minister Nicola Willis will travel to the United States on Tuesday to attend a meeting of the Five Finance Ministers group, with counterparts from Australia, the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. “I am looking forward to meeting with our Five Finance partners on how we can work ...
The coalition Government has today announced purrfect and pawsitive changes to the Residential Tenancies Act to give tenants with pets greater choice when looking for a rental property, says Housing Minister Chris Bishop. “Pets are important members of many Kiwi families. It’s estimated that around 64 per cent of New ...
State Highway 1 (SH1) through Wellington City is heavily congested at peak times and while planning continues on the duplicate Mt Victoria Tunnel and Basin Reserve project, the Government has also asked NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) to consider and provide advice on a Long Tunnel option, Transport Minister Simeon Brown ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Foreign Minister Winston Peters have condemned Iran’s shocking and illegal strikes against Israel. “These attacks are a major challenge to peace and stability in a region already under enormous pressure," Mr Luxon says. "We are deeply concerned that miscalculation on any side could ...
Hundreds of people in little over a week have turned out in Northland to hear Regional Development Minister Shane Jones speak about plans for boosting the regional economy through infrastructure. About 200 people from the infrastructure and associated sectors attended an event headlined by Mr Jones in Whangarei today. Last ...
Health Minister Dr Shane Reti has today thanked outgoing Health New Zealand – Te Whatu Ora Chair Dame Karen Poutasi for her service on the Board. “Dame Karen tendered her resignation as Chair and as a member of the Board today,” says Dr Reti. “I have asked her to ...
The NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) has signalled their proposed delivery approach for the Government’s 15 Roads of National Significance (RoNS), with the release of the State Highway Investment Proposal (SHIP) today, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Boosting economic growth and productivity is a key part of the Government’s plan to ...
New Zealand is renewing its connections with a world facing urgent challenges by pursuing an active, energetic foreign policy, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “Our country faces the most unstable global environment in decades,” Mr Peters says at the conclusion of two weeks of engagements in Egypt, Europe and the United States. “We cannot afford to sit back in splendid ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has announced the Australian Governor-General, His Excellency General The Honourable David Hurley and his wife Her Excellency Mrs Linda Hurley, will make a State visit to New Zealand from Tuesday 16 April to Thursday 18 April. The visit reciprocates the State visit of former Governor-General Dame Patsy Reddy ...
Associate Health Minister David Seymour has announced that Medsafe has approved 11 cold and flu medicines containing pseudoephedrine. Pharmaceutical suppliers have indicated they may be able to supply the first products in June. “This is much earlier than the original expectation of medicines being available by 2025. The Government recognised ...
New Zealand and the United States have recommitted to their strategic partnership in Washington DC today, pledging to work ever more closely together in support of shared values and interests, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “The strategic environment that New Zealand and the United States face is considerably more ...
April 11, 2024 Joint Declaration by United States Secretary of State the Honorable Antony J. Blinken and New Zealand Minister of Foreign Affairs the Right Honourable Winston Peters We met today in Washington, D.C. to recommit to the historic partnership between our two countries and the principles that underpin it—rule ...
By Koroi Hawkins, RNZ Pacific editor in Honiara Solomon Islands’ incumbent prime minister Manasseh Sogavare has been re-elected in the East Choiseul constituency. It is the opening move in the political chess match to form the country’s next government. Returning officer Christopher Makoni made the declaration late last night after ...
Headline: The moment of friction. – 36th Parallel Assessments In strategic studies “friction” is a term that it is used to describe the moment when military action encounters adversary resistance. “Friction” is one of four (along with an unofficial fifth) “F’s” in military strategy, which includes force (kinetic mass), ...
The Fast-track Bill, if passed, would allow three Ministers, unchallenged and unchecked, to approve the immediate extraction and exhaustion of one-off resources. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Duckett, Honorary Enterprise Professor, School of Population and Global Health, and Department of General Practice and Primary Care, The University of Melbourne iamharin/Shutterstock For many people, the term “bulk billed” refers to a GP visit they don’t have to pay ...
Emmas Hislop, Sidnam and Wehipeihana discuss what’s in a name. Emma Sidnam: Hello Emmas! Thank you so much for agreeing to do this with me. My first question for you is related to what’s been on my mind for a while. It’s very important. You see we’ve recently had some ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael Sievers, Research Fellow, Global Wetlands Project, Australia Rivers Institute, Griffith University Chris Brown Humans love the coast. But we love it to death, so much so we’ve destroyed valuable coastal habitat – in the case of some types of habitat, ...
Josh Thomson on the 80s milk ad jingle he can’t stop singing, the beauty of The Simpsons, why Jersey Shore is as good as Shakespeare and more. For someone who spends a lot of time on our screens, popping up in everything from 7 Days to Taskmaster, Educators to Good ...
In apparent defiance of the Biden administration, the Netanyahu government has now initiated missile strikes against Iran. Last Saturday night (Sunday morning in New Zealand) Iran launched more than 300 drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles against Israeli military targets. With the assistance of US, UK and possibly French forces, ...
Māori representation brings a perspective that encompasses not only the interests of Māori communities but also a broader, holistic approach to environmental stewardship and community well-being, principles deeply embedded in Te Ao Māori (the Māori ...
This week in Auckland, a group of young people took over the microphone at a ministerial press conference, to explain why they oppose the Fast-Track Approvals Bill. One young woman said, ‘We’re here because we love Aotearoa New Zealand. We want to raise our children in an environment that’s thriving, ...
The summer was wonderful. Evie was wonderful, too; finally a teenager, finally worthy of long, hot days. She shaved her legs for the first time and bought cut-off shorts from the op-shop that made them look long. She got a Warehouse singlet so tight on her new shape that her ...
When Thomas James was on his solo camp as part of Outward Bound, the keen outdoorsman didn’t find it too challenging, as others often do. In what might just be the perfect illustration of his character, he saw it as a great opportunity to solve a few problems. “I thought, ...
From the unstable and drippy to the hi-tech and pretty, here’s our ranking of all the tunnels you can drive through in this country. The first tunnel seems to have been built in 2200BC in Babylonia, kicking off a global phenomenon for digging holes in order to get places more ...
Lucinda Bennett on the art of being greedy but resourceful. This is an excerpt from our weekly food newsletter, The Boil Up. When I picture the market, it is always this time of year. Crisp air, dripping nose, counting coins with cold fingers. Sunlight pale, filtered through specks of dew still ...
Zoë Colling’s favourite piece in the ‘That’s So Last Century’ collection is a lubrication chart for a sewing machine from the ’60s. It’s about the size of a postcard, and carefully maintained. “I like it that this piece of ephemera highlights that manual and technical side of the skill involved ...
Kia Ora Gaza A passionate haka reverberated through Auckland International Airport as a medical team of three New Zealand doctors received an emotional farewell from a big crowd of supporters before flying to Turkey to join the international Freedom Flotilla to Gaza. The doctors, who left Auckland yesterday, hope to ...
With submissions closing today, Macassey-Pickard says groups around the country have been supporting a huge range of people to make their submissions. ...
Our response to the new legislation is informed by targeted conversations with practitioners working in the system and through an implementation lens. ...
The new ‘Fast-track Approvals Bill’ would give just three Ministers the power to approve or deny development projects. They would avoid the usual checks and balances that are in place to protect rivers, land, the ocean, and communities. ...
COMMENTARY:By Eugene Doyle Helen Clark, how I miss you. The former New Zealand Prime Minister — the safest pair of hands this country has had in living memory — gave a masterclass on the importance of maintaining an independent foreign policy when she spoke at an AUKUS symposium held ...
The government's released the list of organisations provided with information on how to apply - just hours before public submissions on the bill close. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Milton Speer, Visiting Fellow, School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, University of Technology Sydney Before climate change really got going, eastern Australia’s flash floods tended to concentrate on our coastal regions, east of the Great Dividing Range. But that’s changing. Now ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Elizabeth Finkel, Vice-Chancellor’s Fellow, La Trobe University Sia Duff / South Australian Museum In February, the South Australian Museum “re-imagined” itself. In the face of rising costs and inadequate government funds, CEO David Gaimster, who took the reins last June, declared ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alan Pearce, Professor, School of Allied Heath, Human Services & Sport, La Trobe University, La Trobe University This week, Collingwood AFL player Nathan Murphy announced his retirement, brought on by his concussion history and ongoing issues. The 24-year-old’s seemingly sudden retirement, ...
The Mental Health Foundation provides support and resources for those facing the loss of their job, so it’s wrong in the very week the Government adds another 1000 jobs to its tally of cuts, that this is happening. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexander Howard, Senior Lecturer, Discipline of English and Writing, University of Sydney Daniel Boud/Sydney Theatre Company Decay, terror, revulsion. These are three of the central themes of Thomas Bernhard’s rarely performed play The President. The Austrian is one of the greatest ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon says threats by ministers Shane Jones and David Seymour to reform or close down the Waitangi Tribunal were “ill-considered”, as legal experts say the ministers may have breached Cabinet Manual conventions. “I think those comments are ill-considered and we expect all ministers to actually exercise good ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ye In (Jane) Hwang, Postdoctoral Research Associate at School of Population Health, UNSW Sydney Shutterstock You’d be hard pressed to find any aspect of daily life that doesn’t require some form of digital literacy. We need only to look back ten ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rob Newton, Professor of Exercise Medicine, Edith Cowan University Pexels/RDNE stock project You’re not in your 20s or 30s anymore and you know regular health checks are important. So you go to your GP. During the appointment they measure your waist. ...
A new poem by Evangeline Riddiford Graham. Mitochondrial Problem I. It was long drive to Kansas for the man and his dog but you have to understand he said She doesn’t fly. Which calls to mind not carsick shitting barking or whining but a dog who chooses not to as ...
The only published and available best-selling indie book chart in New Zealand is the top 10 sales list recorded every week at Unity Books’ stores in High St, Auckland, and Willis St, Wellington.AUCKLAND1 Hemingway’s Goblet by Dermot Ross (Mary Egan Publishing, $38)Hot off the press, this debut ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Laura Wajnryb McDonald, PhD candidate in Criminology, University of Sydney Less than 24 hours after Ashlee Good was murdered in Bondi Junction, her family released a statement requesting the media take down photographs they had reproduced of Ashlee and her family without ...
Chief executive Shaun Robinson said it has not had any government funding cut, but government-funded contracts have not kept pace with rising costs. ...
The Ministry of Health has delayed the release of its evidence brief on the safety, reversibility and mental health and wellbeing outcomes for puberty blockers. While we wait, Julia de Bres speaks to those with firsthand experience. Best practice gender-affirming healthcare is based on trans people’s self-determination and agency. The ...
Barcelona’s city streets have gone from traffic-clogged to pedestrian-friendly. How? Superblocks. Ellen Rykers explains. This is an excerpt from our weekly environmental newsletter Future Proof. Sign up here. Last week I read a great interview with renowned urbanist Janette Sadik-Khan by The Spinoff’s Wellington editor Joel MacManus: “You can reimagine streets, ...
Student groups ‘Climate Action VUW’, Schools Strike 4 Climate and VUWSA will be on the street in Wellington today, the last day for submissions on the Fast-track Approvals Bill, with a message that the fight against the Government’s ‘War on ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sofia Ammassari, Research Fellow, Griffith University Since 2014, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity has grown exponentially – and so has the formidable organisational machine of his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). These two factors will be key to delivering the BJP a ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brendon Hyndman, Associate Professor of Education (Adjunct) & Senior Manager (BCE), Charles Sturt University During COVID almost all Australian students and their families experienced online learning. But while schools have long since gone back to in-person teaching, online learning has not gone ...
Yes, they’re better for the environment. No, that’s not a good enough reason for me to use them. Once every 26 days or so, my period arrives, and if struck by an act of God, I am caught red-crotched without products. How, after 17 years of this, do I still ...
“It will cause significant harm to our environment and communities. It is completely at odds with New Zealanders’ relationship with nature and our need for a low-carbon, sustainable economic future." ...
The Chair of the National Maori Authority, Matthew Tukaki, has warned a Parliamentary Select Committee that fast-tracking legislation is a perilous practice that undermines the core tenets of democracy, transparency, and accountability. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tim Tenbensel, Associate Professor, Health Policy, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau Getty Images Since coming into power, the coalition government has adopted a simple but shrewd see-how-fast-we-can-move political strategy. However, in the health sector this need for speed entails ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anastasia Hronis, Clinical Psychologist, University of Technology Sydney Darya Sannikova/Pexels Whether you’re watching TV, attending a footy game, or eating a meal at your local pub, gambling is hard to escape. Although the rise of gambling is not unique to Australia, ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mark Wong, Forrest Fellow, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Western Australia Have you ever wondered if there are more insects out at night than during the day? We set out to answer this question by combing through the scientific ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Carol T Kulik, Research Professor, University of South Australia IR Stone/Shutterstock In Australia, it’s not the done thing to know – let alone ask – what our colleagues are paid. Yet, it’s easy to see how pay transparency can make pay ...
The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) is sounding a warning to migrants, that running foul of the law may see them leaving the country prematurely. ...
The government’s plan to get 50,000 people off jobseeker support by 2030 has had a rocky start, writes Catherine McGregor in this excerpt from The Bulletin, The Spinoff’s morning news round-up. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here. Beneficiary numbers are up – and so are ...
Raglan Roast is a staple of Wellington coffee culture. But with five branches across the capital, which one is the best? I am a die-hard Raglan Roast fan. It’s consistently the most affordable cafe in Wellington, and one of the only places you can get a coffee after 3pm. So, ...
Residents of University of Auckland halls are being urged to withhold their accommodation fees from May 1, in a bid to force the university to take student concerns over rent hikes seriously.The University of Auckland is facing a strike from students over the cost of on-campus accommodation. The Students ...
The thousands of government “back-office” job cuts are causing widespread pain in the capital city. In today’s episode of The Detail, we speak to three journalists and a think tank researcher, looking at the larger picture around the cuts and what effect it will have on Wellington, a city that’s ...
Opinion: The famed American architect and urban designer Daniel Burnham once said, “Make no little plans. They have no magic to stir men’s blood!” Burnham wouldn’t have been referring to the transport plans in Aotearoa New Zealand over the past five years; projects so big they hadn’t the credibility to ...
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Opinion: With maths understanding at 42 percent for Year 8 students, there’s no doubt something has to be done. But how? The post Financial literacy should be on all of us appeared first on Newsroom. ...
Hineaupounamu ‘Missy’ Nuku has been scaling mountains in Canada for her college basketball team, the Lakeland Rustlers. Alberta is currently home for the 20-year-old point guard, who is in her first year of a scholarship at Lakeland College, where she is studying for a business degree. She has certainly made ...
Some may think catching the virus is a clever play for the sympathy vote, but their hero will have to become considerably more heroic to win.
It's a diabolically clever ruse to set him up to be the bestest ever tremendous choice to deal with the China shithole pandemic, because he's had personal experience with the 'rona and won bigly and weak snowflake Biden hasn't.
As evidenced by this tweet:
Has been amended slightly to better reflect reality.
https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1313191138061287424?s=20
https://twitter.com/TeaPainUSA/status/1313196187726512129?s=20
https://twitter.com/KLoeffler/status/1313201217309417478
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/gop-donald-trump-covid-19_n_5f7b7bf0c5b60c6bcc60643c
Black Voices for Trump, Latinos for Trump…
??!!!?!!?
Where do those fools meet? In the living room of that hideous, outrageous Kentucky Attorney General?
My sympathy vote goes to the staff in the West Wing of the White House who are infected with Covid – 19. It is best to sort your own house out first and Trump could not even do this. It was inevitable that there was going to be a West Wing White House cluster with a long tail.
does that polling reporting take into account the electoral college system and how presidents are actually chosen?
Andre would know, but my guess is that US polling is just a read of the public mood like ours. I suspect trying to take the EC into account is too sophisticated…
Nationwide polling does not account for the Electoral College. Yes, you do really need to drill down to the state level to get a feel for likely outcomes. Having said all that, the general consensus is that if Biden is ahead by 5% or more nationally, then it's very unlikely the rotting rage papaya could actually sneak through on a freak EC result. If the state-by-state elections were conducted freely and fairly, that is. I have yet to see anyone have a serious crack at trying to forecast where significant fuckery may occur and how it may affect the result.
In terms of state by state polling averages and forecasts, there's the usual sites. My faves that I'm frantically refreshing and doom-scrolling every 22 seconds are:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/
https://www.270towin.com/
Where things sit right now is Biden is ahead by more than 5% in every state Hillary won, plus Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. That gets to 278 EC votes with enough margin it would take some pretty awesome fuckery to flip.
Biden is ahead 3ish% in Arizona (11 EC votes). That's hopeful but pretty tight. A bit of turnout model error and a bit of reversion to Repug-voting historical norm would see Biden fall short.
Biden is ahead around 2%ish in Florida (29 EC votes), so that's well within usual polling errors and Florida fuckery. Still better than 2% behind, tho.
Biden is ahead by less than 1.5% in North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), Iowa (6), Georgia (16). Consider them true toss-ups at this stage.
Biden is within 3%ish in Texas (38), so within reach if turnout models etc have over-corrected from 2016, or more events push things Biden's way.
"I have yet to see anyone have a serious crack at trying to forecast where significant fuckery may occur and how it may affect the result."
Greg Palast
"How Trump stole 2020"
Thanks Andre! I'll have a look through the links and a proper read later.
Maybe closer to the election, and depending on what happens after our own, we can put up some dedicated threads. Let me know if anything springs to mind. I'm guessing ten days out might be a good time to start, unless we are all busy cursing the resurrection of NZF and are in coalition negotiation agony.
My euphemisms for he who never proved he wasn't sired by an orangutan even with $5 million riding on it have attracted a bit of comment. I was thinking of publishing them like BLiP's list of Slur John's lies, only longer. Reckon I should do them all in one hit, or trickle 'em out at maybe 20 a day?
My working assumption is that Biden will win at this point. And his administration can hardly help than to be an improvement on Trump's. Maybe even as Ad made a case for, the old white Catholic guy will make a good President despite everyone's low expectations. I can but hope.
Still Trump has made a career of doing the impossible, over and again. And there are weeks to go on this circus yet.
I'd say Trump is feeling buoyant right now because of the effect of the steroids. A bit of steroid psychosis on top of his baseline disinhibition and lack of impulse control. He may relapse later- around the 9-10 day mark from the onset of symptoms would be expected- and yo-yoing in and out of hospital won't be good for optics.
You could be onto something with that! Any relapse will make folks doubt him. His aura of invincibility will fade. Could be worth a 5% shift easily…
I don’t have a telly. Has Labour launched any attack ads so far this campaign?
Why would they.
No need, they have a deep plant, who, with every opportunity, turns voter's away from National and towards Labour.
Auckland review, "I am a Christian and so is my husband" "What's that, dear?"…
That would not be 'kind', therefore would likely open Labour up to accusations of hypocrisy. And Judas Collins would absolutely love that. I doubt we'll see any attack ads from Jacinda. Steady as she goes seems to be the order of the day.
Good to see the latest poll on the cannabis referendum, from UMR, has yes at 49%. Duncan Garner interviewed a senior research fellow from the Brookings Institute, a polling expert, who said that in 2012 polls in Colorado & Washington State were running even leading up to their referenda & yet the latter came in with around a 10% margin for yes. He pointed to taboo psychology.
Plenty of voters don't have the courage to be honest about their preference if it defies the traditional prevalent view. They will lie to pollsters. So when you have a hegemony of belief that what has long been forbidden is morally wrong, progress has to come via subterfuge. Rebellion will be covertly done.
That's encouraging to hear – was at CADS yesterday trying to book an alcohol detox
Kia kaha Barfly, it will pass 50%, many I know have listened to the science and what has happened elsewhere. Our areas advanced voting begins on the 10th, so voting then Cheers.
Thanks
I wish I could share your optimism, Patricia.
There seems to be powerful voices against it, Medical Council (against some members views), the arguement that medical cannabis is legal but omitting the fact that applications are rarely approved and it costs a bundle. Big Pharmaceutical wins again.
I am curious how the big breweries are organising against the reform.
Id bet that big breweries are testing cannibis in a six pack as we speak.
There's a hop called 'green bullet' marketing will be eyeing up. Parrotdog Lager…takes me back to what steiny used to be before it went export/green.
I thought that flavour and the resulting headache was the aluminium can melting down into the beer.
Good on you.
Thanks
Only wish there were more beds so it was less of a wait.
So what is a pass mark to allow the legislation to proceed 50.1% of the vote, 50% of potential voters as many of this site pushed regarding the smacking law 😉60%, 66%.if it is close then there will be no direction given to warrant any change in the law.
As far as I know, referenda are merely indicative of the public mood – but much more authoratively so than polls. I haven't read the actual legislation that drives ours.
So unless someone who has corrects me, I suspect a govt will use the result as a mandate for change if they possess the political will to make that change happen, regardless of the actual percentage in favour.
It will be a credibility test for Labour if the result is close. Hamlet's choice: to be, or not to be (progressive).
If the Greens get to be in govt with them, I hope they adopt a staunch bargaining position. We need that progress to happen.
Remember how strong the political forces in favour of retaining slavery were. If you've read history you'll know that was a multi-generational saga. The establishment was split down the middle: the progressives, motivated by principle, and the conservatives motivated by vested economic interests and classism.
In the 18th century Alexander Fraser Tytler, Lord Woodhouselee FRSE was a Scottish advocate, judge, writer and historian and Professor of Universal History at the University of Edinburgh. He's quoted by Edward Persimmon, a neocon: https://thebfd.co.nz/2020/10/05/if-capitalism-failed-the-last-time-whats-failing-now/
Is this an iron law of political degeneration? I'm sceptical. Democracies have an inherent resilience due to being social organisms, evolving via social darwinism. Periods of ossification & stasis that produce despair in the populace can surge into periods of regeneration and renewal. Progress sometimes happens!
Persimmon observes that "progressive politics embodies the idea of movement". Conveniently, we have a PM concurrently campaigning on the basis of Labour's slogan let's keep moving, proving his point.
He refers to "a process which is known as the ‘Tytler cycle’." Here's how Tytler described that:
Obviously if democracy were all about bondage we'd have a Reserve Bank issuing government bonds, eh? The ties that bind us into capitalism. We do. Left & right govts both do this, thus his critique from the extreme right:
Yeah, that was bold in the original, that sentence. Intellectuals writing for BFD readers can't make the mistake of being subtle! BFD doesn't tell us what those initials stand for, so we are free to guess. I like Brain Fade Delirium because it captures the normal state of mind of rightists nicely.
I credit the dude for being gutsy enough to provide a dispassionate critique of both establishment parties, but he seems lost in an antique time warp.
That centralisation and control descended from the British Empire, doncha know?? Not from hegemony of rabid socialists. Try harder next time!
Funny how that right wing rabbit on about"Freedom" and "Individual responsibility" while at the same time reducing democratic rights, increasing police power, introducing ever more restrictive search and surveillance laws, putting draconion requirements to access State help, restricting workers rights and calling for protesters to "ask permission first".
Anyone would think they don't trust people with, "individual responsibility"?
Individual responsibility is only for poor people. It loosely translates to "fend for yourselves, peasant scum". Increasing police powers feeds into the "tough on crime" rhetoric (always a vote-winner with the perpetually fearful) and further prevents the peasant scum from getting too uppity. Win-win.
Pretty much.
The "elite" when they fuck up, get golden handshakes, and another overpaid sinicere. If not an actual Government bailout.
Poor people get their job and then welfare removed.
Of course Persimmon was quite wrong about the public who rarely vote themselves gifts and clutch fiscal conservatism when challenged on its necessity.
"National's leader Judith Collins is facing criticism from within over policy decisions that at worst are improvised and at best did not consult the party's own spokesperson."
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/427666/judith-collins-under-pressure-over-policy-on-the-fly
Yeah because she's been to church an all…"consulting" the sky fairy. She's so obvious its an obvious thing
I am going to save the Taxpayers a heap of money. There is no need for the expensive review or investigation into the Auckland Council that Judith Collins wants. I know what the findings will be and am quite happy to share them
When Collins and her Act coalition partner are elected in October they can steam ahead with what needs to be done.
What is going to be the big recommendation? This might be novel, it might be new, it might be out of right field, but this is the way forward, THE ANSWER.
It's called, (drum roll) A SUPER CITY!!!
Let’s set up one of those, that'll work. There's no Hiding from it. 🤔
Next up: M'Lord Warne?
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-politics-54418406
Lord Beefwit really is a nasty piece of work….
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-37058090
Re Collins ‘praying’ stunt.
Can anybody recall ANY other political being photographed 'praying' in an empty church (or any church) and then being published?
"The minister said, 'Oh would you like to come and do a prayer, Judith?' and I said 'yes, I would'. I didn't ask the media in and I turned around and there they were all happily taking shots, so I thought 'gosh, well, I'll just keep on doing what I'm doing'.
'Collins told Magic Talk: "I could have turned around and said 'get out of this house of worship you evil media', or I could have just done exactly what I was going to do in the first place. I would have thought they would have expected it was a private moment but they came charging in."
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/10/election-2020-national-s-judith-collins-hits-back-at-abusive-criticism-over-pre-vote-prayer.html
Sure, Dear….
no, but it's probably on par with politicians kissing babies. Unfortunately for NZ, she's setting precedent as well as actively courting the rise of religious fundamentalism in NZ politics. The left needs better responses than we have if we're going to present something better.
dont think you need to be worried about religious fundies. NZ is NOT america, which was founded by religious fundies.
A little wry humour about where salvation may arise.
https://www.azquotes.com/author/18908-Josephine_Tey
I hope you are right, but the signs are not good.
Trotter's got a bit of history & also gives it currency: http://bowalleyroad.blogspot.com/2020/10/bringing-national-to-its-knees.html
They think god is on their side. I think not. Still, we can expect the ritual spraying of money around as if it were fertiliser – especially if sourced from the wealthy christians in the USA. Unless they use Pacifica for leverage, they will keep discovering that Aotearoa seems too much like stony ground.
Had a plugin update this morning cause slowdown problems. Finally fixed by deactivating the plugin.
Unfortunately it was the second plugin that I was checking. The first caching plugin that was suspicious started off suddenly showing an expired license. It'd be nice if the suppliers of that had sent a email about an upcoming bill – because then I could have checked it for an old card. It expired at the start of the month. So I thought that was the issue.
However it was a logging plugin. Problem disappeared immediately when I deactivated that.
Oh well. that puts paid to the post I was about to write. Time to drink the coffee and e-bike to work contemplating the email I will write to each of the plugins company / authors.
Great that you keep on plugging along. My guess that that means chugging along in ordinary every day language. Thanks.
Chugging is the coffee.
Addressing rental affordability.
https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2020/10/06/parties-pile-in-to-address-rental-affordability-within-the-first-100-days-of-government-renters-united/
https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2020/10/06/nationals-reckless-housing-policy-will-take-new-zealand-backwards/
Unfortunately neither Labour or National can ever fix this obscenity that stalks our country while they remain slaves to their neo liberal ideology..a sad but true fact.
" Unfortunately neither Labour or National can ever fix this obscenity that stalks our country while they remain slaves to their neo liberal ideology..a sad but true fact "
Yes market economics is the prison that has been created for us. Anything that is attempted by the two main parties is fiddling while Rome burns.
Maybe our next challenge will be how to find a chink in the prison wall and work on opening it up with our files. Let's 'defile' this sacred economic temple of the golden dairy cow.
Ex-OPCW chief Jose Bustani reads Syria testimony that US, UK blocked at UN
Unreported by all MSM as seems to becoming the new normal, MSM self censorship has reached levels that even the most cynical amongst us never believed that it would, all they have to do is say 'Trump bad' and most left leaning liberals are satisfied with their performance it would seem….what a disaster.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZgIDlgD_txM
I noted in something I was reading the comment that the Syrian people when visited mid last century, were really nice, friendly people. It may have been said by Agatha Christie after one of her times in the Middle East with her archaeologist husband.
I wonder how things are with them now after receiving packages from the world's great free and beneficent democracy.
Thanks Adrian
No doubt Bustani will be dismissed as another "outlier"
Extraordinary how so many of the left , so called , Louis Proyect for one, hysterically defend the corrupt leadership (all diplomats, not scientists)of the current OPCW
Like a fish out of water.
https://twitter.com/brenonade/status/1313256208363552769
He might just have walked up a stair. And the girdle probably doesn't help. Peak health, totally….
Jeepers (to coin a word) don't let Draco see this graphic:
https://mkorostoff.github.io/1-pixel-wealth/
It took me about 15 minutes to scroll through Bezos's wealth!
So much for my idea that advance voting might have been particularly high on Saturday and Sunday because it's the first time advance voting opened with two full weekend days – Monday was even busier with nearly 110,000 votes cast for a total of 271,000 so far in the first three days.
https://elections.nz/stats-and-research/2020-general-election-advance-voting-statistics/
That’s almost 21 times the number of votes that ACT got in total in 2017.
These people who were involved in WW2 doing important things for the war effort speak to the camera about their roles. I
It would be good if we could put our efforts into saving our world and our society today, so they can feel that their and all the casualties and sorrows to try to stop terrible things happening, gave a lasting positive effect. Otherwise, why bother caring when it all gets forgotten and repeated only worse. And it has to be more than voting and putting your hand out for those you are most closely connected to.
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2020/06/world-war-ii-survivors-share-stories-75-years-later-feature/
edit
Economists are good on anything – the go-to people for whatever ails you. Makes sense as economists decide on what we can have, should be and how we want to live.
Now one economissed's thoughts on bravely striding out into a volcano of viruses, similar to venturing onto White Island when it was getting ready to blow. https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/427677/economist-warns-of-covid-19-fatigue-if-more-lockdowns-occur
Modeller and economist Rodney Jones says the government has been too conservative with its approach to the Auckland cluster – believing the city's restrictions are being lifted a week late this Wednesday.
"The toolkit we have is really first class in terms of contact tracing, testing, and particularly the genome sequencing that gives us an enormous understanding of each outbreak.
"I think we can take more risk and we need to take this kind of learning into a future outbreak if it was to occur."
Now when did economists ever know anything about learning anything for sure? If something goes wrong they just develop a new model – no probs, and not too much of saying sorry. So it's gone tits up – you should have been ready for that, anyone would know it was bound to happen and have the right gear ready for dealing with it etc. What’s a little collateral damage; one has to weigh up economic damage against human damage and see which side the weight is on. Oh business is up, we already have so much human damage in NZ, there is no significant change in the trend line.
yes, economists have pretty much been wrong ever since humans ,weather, nature, etc were added into any equation.
This is entirely anecdotal and of no wider consequence, but my mother-in-law, who descends from 150 years of Pakeha farming stock and has voted National every election for 60-odd years, has said she has voted two ticks for Labour.
I've got a whole lot of relations and in-laws who are farmers, or retired farmers, good people but traditionally blue as. Some will no doubt hold their noses and stay in the fold, but over the last two years they all agree on a couple of things: they admire Jacinda's leadership (especially over 15 March and Covid); they didn't like Bridges; and they definitely don't like Collins.
yes, off all the leadership groups the nats have had this year(strong team?) the current one is the most unpopular. whatisname and the blonde woman would have been better.
Dinna like the roiling around of your comments. Cos I come in at the rational hour of 11 o'clock, no response. I mention Yertle the Turtle and the short touch of the 'art of the possible' (swimming term, 'short touch') and youse play bullshit. Unlike you careerists I put truth , and so reality, first.