Paul Buchanan said on radio yesterday that Snowden is about to release files about NZ as one of the Five Eyes spying partners. The files may show that NZ was spying on China which could worsen our economic relations with that country.
The MSM’s re-modelling of Colin Craig as Nats’ potential coalition partner continues. But it looks like that no matter what the media is trying to do, the general public’s perception of Colin Craig as a nutter will not be changed. The December polls seem to suggest so.
Also, it seems that Rodney Hide will have a go at Act’s leadership. This Sunday on Radio Live, he was adamant that Act will win again in Epsom but would not disclose who will lead Act in 2014 on the way to election.
Be careful. Craig Colins may be unelectable but could get in on the list.
Bennett is going up against her thinner blonder? self in North Harbor.
The thinking I suppose is National voters may see no difference and know Bennett will get in on the National list.
Then whats her name will then get over the line, and drag Craig with her.
That’s what the freak show needs to be exposed, National extremist gambit in the North Auckland seat, putting in a religious right into parliament.
You see instead of whatshername winning on her record, she gets cover from the Craig and legitimacy from pounding the pavement against Bennett in a sideshow of vacuous sound bites.
Its why Key wouldn’t do away with the single member party loophole.
interesting indeed. Nicky hager is the first I recall reading of 5 eyes. I tip my hat to him. Corngate. Hollowmen. Five eyes and his fabulous bruce jesson speech.
imo he is a homwgrown hero for his digging and head above the parapet.
And don’t forget “Other People’s Wars” Tracey. It’s a tome, but well worth ploughing through…
That book came about because a group of concerned military officers – some very senior – were appalled by the lies and misinformation that was being reported about New Zealand’s involvement in Afghanistan in particular, and were willing to talk to him. He told a group of us “we would be amazed at just who was willing to come forward and talk to him”.
A repeat performance of “The Hollow Men” in many ways.
“Other People’s Wars” is well worth reading and rams home the senselessness of our having anything except a coastguard and some sort of peace keeping and disaster response ability. The RNZAF might as well wear USAF uniforms and as soon as our admirals get blue water ships, they sail off and mix themselves up in adventures on behalf of the yanks. If they won’t take orders from civilian authority, I don’t see why civilians should pay their salaries. I would say the spooks are even less interested in working for us.
I spent five years working in a civilian capacity on an Air Force base. During that time I had direct contact with flight crews on a daily basis. I don’t mind telling you I was impressed with their professionalism and the work they did. There were the Orions flying out on daily missions (almost) policing our 200 mile fishing zone. Hercules aircraft were constantly shifting equipment and personnel from one place to another. A couple of Boeing aircraft did the shifting of large numbers of Defence personnel around the country and overseas. There were search and rescue missions of one kind or another almost on a weekly basis and weather related emergencies. The Air Force did an exceptional job during the Cyclone Bola emergency – travelling backwards and forwards 24/7 for several weeks without let-up. They deserved a collective medal for that alone. And finally the overseas peace-keeping and “re-construction” missions. More than enough to keep a small but very professional group of people in full time employment.
We can fulfil out international obligations without fighting and scrapping in “other people’s wars”.
Always wondered what the inflight entertainment and catering was like on airforce Boeing flights? Do they have flight stewards just like on civilian aircraft with free food and grog?
Though not savvy enough to tie himself to various acolytes and apologists (RNZ gigs et al) when sleepy hobbits awaken and the masses look back in anger.
I want it, AND I want it NOW!
Might take a while though, and thankfully I’ll be long gone – either into the ether, or somewhere in the 90 degree parallel
Viewing that clip of the ‘Judge asking questions” suspected of getting him fired from Fox News http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=52b_1329796059
I was struck by and enjoyed his clear diction, something which with notable exceptions is largely missing in New Zealand reports and interviewees as with most of what emerges from around the world.
Which is a primary reason that the written word has such an attraction for me when one works through the typos and mis-spelling so common these days as people simply either do not know or do not check what they have written.
(this is a copy of my reply to Draco who posted the clip yesterday and i realise it has little to do with your particular point jcuknz but along with the deficient spelling etc, attention being paid to the world’s timeline is also something which seems to be diminishing)
and it was his job to be seen to ask those ‘radical’ questions so FOX could say it is balanced when delivering the plethora of ‘stay on message’ propaganda pieces that passes for news on FOX.
They don’t give a shit. Check out Homepaddock ‘Saving species nearly killed it’, Ele Ludemann making analogies about DOC wasting money saving genetic lines that she says should have been left to die out and likening that to welfare spending. G Edgeler called her out on it and she back tracked, but not before showing her true colours.
Her right wing blog is promoted by her being on Afternoons. The blog is nothing but pure right wing spin. As seen by the post I mentioned, her views are extreme.
Well spotted. That blog has everything…the preachy-teachy far right lines, direct from Nat HQ. The ‘let them eat cake’ condescension, almost a self -parody. Relentless farming coverups for the usual suspects..pollution and destruction. Sort of ‘twinset-and-pearls on steroids’.
Should be subtitled ‘The Red Neck with a Blue Rinse’…;)
There is talk of pardoning Snowden but I think he should be given the Medal of Honour for bravery in taking on the largest and most powerful country/ group of countries in the world, or perhaps a Nobel Prize with its monetry tags would be more useful
I tend to agree – he id’d an issue, recognised the action he could take at great personal risk, and executed that action intelligently and with care for the safety of himself and others.
I think the argument that he exposed national security, which he has, is wrong since who was handing out state secrets to contractors, not Snowden. How was Snowden to know they would harm National Security, he’s not suppose to have National Security secrets, he’s not a government employee.
Its hugely chilling to democracy to find out that private firms could be working state databases for profitable opportunities. Were the contracts auctioned? Did partially foreign owned entities win contracts? Will companies from five eye nations get to bid in the next round.
When the government spends billions collecting data on everyone on the planet and only private entities with connections in washington can harvest that information, protected by state national security laws, then we all better start worrying.
Well, yes he did compromise the state security apparatus by revealing the extent of their surveillance (and thus the fact they has misled their political overseers, for example). It’s now working its way through the legal system – and I wonder if even Scalia can argue it’s constitutional…
What he didn’t do (AFAIK) was compromise the safety of individuals, agents, or informants (other than himself).
Giving secrets to contractors can be a required part of the job – they just get bound by security agreements etc. Whether such work should be privatised is another argument altogether.
I don’t know Tracey. On the face of it, it does look like there are reasonable issues to object on. I’m sure there is more to the story than we can see in that article, but it does seem an odd design if you want cyclists and walkers to use the same track. Plus the concrete is ugly as, at least in that photo.
Rubbish Weka it’s rank nimbyism. If people like Sneddon get their way there will be no new public tracks through NZ, with their obvious massive economic and health benefits. Agree on the concrete though.
You must have read a different article to me then. Looks like they were objecting to the way the path was being constructed, not that it was there (looks to me like the access has been there for quite some time, that berm isn’t new). Plus my points about design stand. Where are you getting your information from?
The current focus on putting tracks in everywhere is a mire of conflicting needs. Simplifying that down to a catch-cry of NIMBYism is not helpful.
“An even worse situation is where the lessee of a Crown Pastoral Lease has, for no good reason apart from rank selfishness and nimbyism, absolutely refused access across Crown Land beside Lake Roxburgh causing the cycle/walking trail between Alexandra and Roxburgh to be discontinuous, necessitating an expensive and inconvenient boat trip for several kilometres, a situation that puts off many cyclists/walkers.”
Selfishness and nimbyism, how do you know? What has the farmer said?
It’s been well reported in the press down here Weka. Basically the farmers say it is our pastoral lease so stuff you. Admittedly there might be very slight, and I mean very slight, adverse effects from the track on farming, but these have to be weighed against the purposes of the Crown pastoral Lease Act which aims:
“to promote the management of reviewable land in a way that is ecologically sustainable………… to enable the protection of the significant inherent values of the reviewable land…………and to make easier the securing of public access to and enjoyment of reviewable land” (Crown Pastoral Land Act 1998, S.24).
Are you sure there is not more to it than that? Often in those situations there is history that needs to be resolved. And I still don’t see how you can make the same judgement about the Taupo situation unless you have more facts than the rest of us.
btw, last time I drove through the Millenium track from Miller’s Flat to Beaumont, I thought what a complete fuck up. Trees being removed, big fences put up, an increadibly beautiful piece of landscape made ugly (not that the farmers don’t contribute to that as well). I’m sure in time some of that will sort itself out, but bike tracks aren’t always the bees knees. Increasing numbers of access sometimes takes things away. Fuck tourism and this idea that development is always good.
What if the idea of trespass was dumped but access by way of neat little suburban like paths wasn’t provided?
Lack of trespass works well in other countries. And whereas tourists and ‘day trippers’ might be drawn by the idea of a nice stroll down a tarmac/concrete/rubber/gravel walkway, they might not be so drawn to walking/scrambling over ‘natural’ countryside.
As a trout fisher I am very aware of the erosion of access to prime spots in particular. There is not only encroachment by way of development (as around lake shores) but also the denial of access over surrounding land to public waters. The latter is often a result of a “deal” between landowners and tourist guides to effectively privatise Crown riverbeds to all except those willing to pay for access across private land.
What we are seeing is the constant erosion of the public domain where ever somebody sees a way of deriving an income from it, or of giving themselves a privileged position.
Weka and Bill-I read a few weeks ago that a big percentage of the people using the Otago Rail Trail come from Auckland and environs.
Weka-tracks always take a while to “bed-in’ Have a look at the Miller’s Flat-Beaumont track in 3 years time. (I agree when tracks are first built there are adverse effects). My understanding is that parts of this track have had to be put in beside the road because adjacent landowners refused access along the old rail line which they were given for a song.
Bill-go and say “fuck the tourism” to the people of Omakau and Lauder and Middlemarch and see the response you will get. The Maniototo’s economy has been boosted by the huge success of the rail trail.
Concrete is indeed ugly (and its manufacture also produces much CO2), but Sneddon et al only seem concerned with their particular patch; which would substantiate Tracey’s claim of NIMBYism on his part, given:
“The track, popular with walkers and cyclists, begins 10km away in central Taupo.”
When I read the article in the ODT earlier this morn, I was mainly struck by this:
“While the donation and the plan for the concrete track were notified in council agendas, letters to houses in the area, council press releases and media coverage, objectors with holiday homes say they had no knowledge of it until construction started in December.”
Surely it was the responsibility of the house owners to ensure that the council had an alternative address, or to have their mail redirected, while they were non-resident if they wanted to be consulted. They must pay rates on the properties after all, which means paperwork going somewhere.
Also Sneddon’s criticism of the track seems rather incoherent:
‘ The objection wasn’t against the path, which “goes nowhere”. “All it does is finish a little further on.” He said it was not properly suitable for cycling. “You can’t ride two bicycles side by side on this path.” ‘
Which, if anything, seems like an argument to have the track widened to better serve both pedestrians and cyclists.
“They must pay rates on the properties after all, which means paperwork going somewhere.”
Yes, generally councils send important letters to the ratepayer’s prefered address, not a letterbox drop. It’s not unusual for councils to do things without notifying people properly.
“Also Sneddon’s criticism of the track seems rather incoherent:
‘ The objection wasn’t against the path, which “goes nowhere”. “All it does is finish a little further on.” He said it was not properly suitable for cycling. “You can’t ride two bicycles side by side on this path.” ‘
Which, if anything, seems like an argument to have the track widened to better serve both pedestrians and cyclists.”
Yes, and I’m sure that they would prefer to not have more people crossing in front of their yard than before, and so they are trying to find ways to mitigate the problem. But that doesn’t make them wrong. Sedden is most likely a complete hypocrit given his day job (although he may not be responsible for his wife’s actions either), but I really don’t understand why people who object to impacts are automatically labelled nimbys and selfish. Not all development is good, and not all development that benefits in some ways is without negatives in other ways.
“It’s not unusual for councils to do things without notifying people properly.”
They did seem to have made the effort here though via “notifi[cation] in council agendas, letters to houses in the area, council press releases and media coverage”. That the holiday home owners didn’t pick up on any of this seems to speak more of their disengagement from the community than the council’s negligance.
“Not all development is good, and not all development that benefits in some ways is without negatives in other ways.”
I can definitely agree with you on that point, though remain in favour of expanding cycle-ways.
An even worse situation is where the lessee of a Crown Pastoral Lease has, for no good reason apart from rank selfishness and nimbyism, absolutely refused access across Crown Land beside Lake Roxburgh causing the cycle/walking trail between Alexandra and Roxburgh to be discontinuous, necessitating an expensive and inconvenient boat trip for several kilometres, a situation that puts off many cyclists/walkers.
My understanding is that the tenure review in question is up for review in 2017 (?) at which time the goverment of the day can create a marginal strip outside the pastoral lease land where the cycle/walkway can go as of right. Better hope that Labour/Greens are in by then because National will never go against its farming mates.
It is possible that when Labour/Greens get in later this year they could legislate to push the cyleway through the pastoral lease land as a matter of public interest.
TV3 dignifies a science-denier by calling him a “skeptic”
TV3 News, Monday 6 January 2014, 6:10 p.m.
As even the supremely insensate John “Cabbage” Banks must have noticed, it’s been hot in New Zealand lately.
At the same time, however, it’s been extremely cold in the United States and Europe, and a couple of boats have been caught in the ice in Antarctica. This naturally calls into question the whole idea of global warming, as the intelligent folk at one of our premier blogs have noted…. http://www.whaleoil.co.nz/2014/01/ice-veteran-slams-ship-fools/
With all this heat in the air, the producers at TV3 News evidently thought it was time to assign ace reporter Emma Brannam to come up with a short, sweet item about the heat wave. A “balanced” item, of course, which means that you balance up the bias of scientists by countering it with the well reasoned denials of cantankerous fanatics who insist the world’s scientists are engaged in a massive scam along the lines of the Illuminati conspiracy, the Harold Holt defection to the USSR or the 9/11 “inside job”.
The item began with shots of Aucklanders swimming, rubbing sunscreen on their bodies, and eating ice cream. All this served to establish the theme: it’s hot. Emma Brannam then gave about twenty seconds of air time to the leading climate scientist Professor Jim Salinger.
This was “balanced” by going to a crank, Bryan Leyland, one of the New Zealand advocates for Screaming Lord Monckton, the infamous science-denier who caused a fuss recently when Victoria University refused to treat him as a serious person….. http://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-17042013/#comment-620413
In the interests of “balance” rather than accuracy, Emma Branham called Leyland a “skeptic”, as if he were some kind of Voltaire, rather than a science-denying fruitcake.
Since “balance” is obviously the watchword for TV3 News, I guess we can expect to see a Holocaust-denier interviewed every time World War II is mentioned, an Elvis-worshipper brought on to assert Elvis is still alive whenever any mention is made of his death, and a member of the Flat Earth Society hauled out to refute the scientific establishment’s socialist propaganda every time an item on space travel is aired.
“..In the interests of “balance” rather than accuracy, Emma Branham called Leyland a “skeptic”, as if he were some kind of Voltaire, rather than a science-denying fruitcake..
“Ace reporter”…..At this juncture I tend to blanch, I have since I left Uni (sometime in the Jurassic) met, socialised with, know (some are even children of my old friends) several TV “jornos”. They have two things in common: they talk nicely for the camera, they look good and presentable on the screen.
This adds up to one thing: they are talking heads. Without being too mean to people I like I cant think of one who has life experience, actual knowledge, etc. That is because in the role it is not needed, it is light weight / follow the script stuff. To assign intelligence to them (and I am not saying they are unintelligent) is to miss the point. So “ace”, wtf does that convey? I gave up listening to mainstream news eons ago for this very reason.
PS If you want to see some good reporters asking difficult questions try the Russian TV reporters (RT).
Please Morrissey, you must get the story right.
Harold Holt did NOT defect to the USSR.
He swam out to sea and was picked up by a Chinese submarine. In other words he defected to China.
Everybody knows that. Please don’t confuse them by mentioning the USSR.
As an aside there is a memorial to Holt in Melbourne. Sombody with a macabre sense of humour decided that a suitable memorial for someone who had drowned would be a public swimming pool!
Indeed, alwyn, I learned of the Harold Holt Swim Centre (in Malvern) many years ago, while reading Barry Humphries’ fantastically funny book about Australian kitsch.
The Australian establishment’s capacity for irony is almost as keen as the South African establishment’s legendary black humour.
Listening to the radio this morning I think I got some insight.
1 There was an item on the difficulties that Disney had opening a theme park in Paris and it nearly went broke. Something the management found was that with the sale of food, Europeans are different to the USA who tend tosnack a lot between meals. Europeans don’t they focus on the meal at meal times. And in buying stuff, Europeans tend to buy I think good stuff, infrequently unlike USA frequent purchases.
Maybe the snacking is what has changed the USA shape dramatically wider and heavier of late decades.
2 The hunting of whale oil. Sir Geoffrey Palmer was talking about eating whales and referred to a part of the scientific whaling clauses that say the whales should be used for something of value after the ‘science’. He referred to earlier days where whale oil was important but that died away when they discovered oil in Pennsylvania, I think.
That is what the Japanese are anxious about. I don’t think they have any or not much oil (and also may be one reason for getting uptight about nearby islands being taken over by Chinese, apart from the security angle). There may be oil reserves in the waters there.
Also any thinking country knows that oil supplies are getting tight. The Japanese would not like a scenario where they have to beg for oil from others, and be under their thumb, and have to pay big time for it. Also they know how a country can suffer when there is hostility and war, and they had the two atomic bombs and the fire storm in Tokyo. And their own filthy record to consider which they wouldn’t enjoy in reverse. The Chinese notice that they don’t hesitate to pay homage at the memorials of some of their dastardly military and scientific leaders. The Chinese haven’t forgotten the Manchurian atrocities at the beginning of the 20th century.
So the Japanese would think, better to ensure some independence in oil for the future by keeping on with the whales and want to keep this ‘pipeline’ open which also would provide food for their large population.
I think whale oil was mainly used for lighting, soap, and margarine. It was gas and electricity, plus the killing of too many whales, that cause its use to die out. I doubt if there is enough oil in all the whales in the sea to make a difference to the Japanese energy budget. I also don’t think they’re ever going to manage to feed themselves with whale meat. The whaling they do seems to be one of the last remaining ways that they can express their nationalism.
Murray O
Sir G Palmer mentioned the whale oil at the same time as he mentioned oil finds in the USA so thought that he connected them. Yes the nationalism thing could be strong – you can’t push us around stuff, but they must be looking at the global energy and political power too. Was I right that they don’t have their own oil reserves? I haven’t looked up.
Some whale oil was used for domestic lighting, but it stunk. Kerosene was used as one of the replacements. In the US, this was originally distilled from coal, but the process of distilling it from crude oil was more effective, and I think that started in Pennsylvania around 1850.
As far as I know, Japan has no oil reserves on their own territory. This was one of the causes behind WW2, where they wanted access to South East Asian oil. It’s also a factor in the number of nuclear power plants in Japan.
I know John Banks — we were hosts at Radio Pacific at the same time and I got to know him well.
He’s a good man. His background is well enough known — his bank-robber father was a crook and his mother an abortionist, both had serious drinking problems. He grew up in Auckland’s underworld of the fifties and sixties.
I can’t speak to Karol’s intent obviously, (I’m just not seeing what you are) but when I responded to Weka’s original question, it was off the cuff facts from memory, with no judgement attached. I don’t hold John Banks accountable for his folks, only himself.
I did not get the same impression of karol’s comment, phillip. I thought she was pointing out the redundancy of describing Archie as a bank robber and a crook. I could be sensitive on such issues if I felt like it. I don’t.
Archie Banks was a notorious career criminal and Banks’ mother Kitty was an alcoholic (Mayor Banks does not drink) and they were both jailed while he was attending Avondale College (after failing to get in to Auckland Grammar for being a “drongo”. Banks is a strange mix of boasting and self-deprecation.)
His parents’ crime was procuring abortions; this is all spelled out in an authorised biography written some years ago by Paul Goldsmith who is now on the council.
Deuteronomy 24:16 – The fathers shall not be put to death for the children, neither shall the children be put to death for the fathers: every man shall be put to death for his own sin.
So long as Banks gets “put to death” electorally for his multitude of sins.
Try this
Here are the passages I found in which Jesus tells his followers that they have a duty to take care of children, the poor, and other vulnerable people:
Matthew 18:6, 18:10, 19:21, 23:14, and 25:31-46; Mark 9:36-37, 10:21, and 12:40; and Luke 10:30-37, 11:41, 12:33, 14:12-14, 18:22, and 20:47.
Here are the passages in which Jesus tells his followers to pay their taxes without complaining:
Matthew 5:42, 17:24-27, and 22:19-21; Mark 12:14-17; and Luke 6:30 and 20:21-25.
Here are the passages in which Jesus tells his followers that they aren’t supposed to obsess about other people’s sins, but should leave that to God, and attend to their own moral failings instead:
Matthew 7:1-5 and 9:10-13; Mark 2:15-17; Luke 6:37, 6:41-42, 7:44-48, 15:2, 18:10-14, and 19:7; and John 8:2-11.
And here are the passages in which Jesus tells his followers to blame the poor and vulnerable for their plight, direct benefits toward the already well-to-do at the expense of everyone else, refuse to pay their fair share of taxes, and obsessively denounce and punish the sins of people they don’t like while finding every opportunity to excuse their own sins and those of their friends:
Deliberately left blank until somebody can find some…
Ennui I just meant to list the icons but of course copied them with the colons so got the faces not the names – so match the face with the design –
grin razz idea shock wink cool sad
lol.
Good quote from Deuteronomy, also. Like you, I changed my ‘pseudonym’ – previously Deuto, short for …. Not so much to do with the bible, rather more to do with cats and ‘Cats’. Know cattiness when I see, hear, read it. Used to be something of an expert myself, but have mellowed with age.
Archie’s main claim to fame was as a fence. Apparently he was an honourable man, his word was his bond and all that stuff. John’s mother doesn’t have such fame in the folklore, which is possibly a reflection of the times.
It wouldn’t surprise me if John Key announces the election date this month, like he did at the start of 2011, to be seen to be ‘principled’ and above petty politics.
Furthermore, this belief that the government would fall if Banks lost his seat is, once again, incorrect. The government has a confidence and supply agreement with the Maori Party so will be able to win any vote of no confidence. I daresay that breaking that agreement would hurt the MP more than it would hurt National. Banks leaving parliament means National would only have trouble passing right-wing legislation, which seems like it wouldn’t be a problem in this case as there would only be a few months left of the term – they can arrange for urgency before then to pass any legislation that would require Banks’ vote.
Finally, calling an election because a minor party MP is removed from parliament really taints National a lot – they want to keep as much distance from Banks as possible, so it’s better to carry on with ‘business as usual’.
Lanth, I was talking more about the ordure that will fly around Banks’ sentencing and it’s association with Key (let’s have a cuppa) dragging down National’s poll ratings.
Well aware the ‘orrible twosome have hitched themselves to National for this term, and so ending the Maori Party.
I can’t find Banks’ actual court dates, but it’s scheduled for 10 days in May.
Are you saying that John Key will shortly announce an election before May? Or that after Banks is convicted but before he’s sentenced, Key will call an election then?
Since the budget is delivered in May, and National definitely want to get in a 6th one, I think we can rule the first possibility out.
I’ve already described why I think the 2nd won’t happen, not the least of which is that by that point it will be ~6 months until an election in November anyway so the Epsom seat can be declared vacant and not filled anyway.
As Lanthanide said, it is expected to take 10 days. So, unless Key and Co break with convention, the trial will coincide with the lead up to, and aftermath of the 2014 Budget – usually held in the second half of May. Convenient somewhat?
My money is on an early election – possibly as early as early/mid July, or in August/September – announced after the Royal visit or on Budget Day with a short lead-in time only (can be as short as six weeks’ notice).
Key will want to capitalise on the warm fuzzies, photo ops etc from the Royal Visit in early April – and also overshadow both the Dotcom compensation hearing in March, and possible extradition hearing currently scheduled for April, but expected to again be delayed until July, with possible ‘revelations’ unfavourable to/re Key.
I don’t believe he will leave it until November, as he will be hoping to attend the G20 Summit in Brisbane on 15/16 November 2014. NZ is not a member of G20 but Australia is hosting the 2014 G20 meetings and have invited NZ to attend the meetings for the first time.
Yes, an October election is possible. In addition to the issue in my earlier comment, my gut feeling is that Key will not use the same strategy as in 2011 – ie announcing the election at the beginning of the year – but will go for the opposite this time around.
IMO he will not want to give Cunliffe the time to establish a following/presence for too long, or give too much forewarning in the hopes that Labour will be behind in developing/announcing policies, getting their electorate candidates sorted etc. The number of Nats who have already announced their retirements etc suggests that National are well ahead in sorting their list.
A mid-winter election could also result in an even lower voter turnout than in 2011 due to weather, which would probably also work to National’s advantage.
But don’t forget that ‘early’ elections don’t reflect well on the incumbent.
Labour and Helen got a lot of flak for going early in 2002 (which prevented me from voting, as I turned 18 in October). The strategists reckon they did better by going early, but we can’t really know for sure.
mmm given the above discussion maybe you (Lanth and Veuto) are right and I’m wrong-election is likely in Sept-Oct. Banks is likely to be lead of to the cells in July, having been booted out of parliament earlier.
IMO this is close enough to the election for Key/National to suffer collateral damage in terms of loss in poll ratings. Labour and Greens cannot say “John Key’s mate John Banks is in chokey” often enough during the campaign.
I am still of the opinion that it will be earlier – eg July – but there is a lot of water to go under the bridge in the next few months, so anything could happen based on the ever-changing situation in 2013.
Moral of story: LABOUR, GREENS, be prepared to go AT ANY TIME! Surprise will be just one of Natzis tactics, alongside Mr Slip Slime Dirty Trix and his enterage of the 10% including a compliant media (playing their last round).
Cunliffe has been well aware of the possibility of an early election from the time he was elected leader. I think that is why we didn’t hear too much from him in the last couple of months of the year. He was busy doing the behind the scenes campaign preparation – putting strategy into place etc. That’s my understanding anyway.
dec-jan always quiet politically, and difficult for opposition to get coverage. No point doing king-hits when they’ll be quickly enveloped and forgotten by the election.
The hubbub will start up in late feb – I’d expect about 50% of policy announced before campaign starts, with a couple more flagship lab/grn/mana complementary policy announcements (like NZpower and housing). Grn on 12-15% and lab on 36-40% by start of campaign is my hope.
“I think that is why we didn’t hear too much from him in the last couple of months of the year.”
Exactly my thoughts ….. although hopefully he’s not losing sight of the old guard a-wishin an-a-hopin he fucks up, and occasionally completely stuffing things up with media pronouncements and pontifications – after having looked at their gorgeous image in the mirror.
[Looks at Parker, Maid Marion, Billy Bunter from Wainui, and others sideways]
Foot shooting and clinging to romantic notions of how life could have been (if only) are trademarks of a certain clique that only have their egos to cling to (and by GOD they’ll hold out – probably even after I, and a few others piss on their graves.
(I’m sorry your honour, I was drunk at the time after visiting the local supermarket and taking advantage of a loss-leader item, and didn’t know what I was doing!
Awwwe – you poor poor thang – I sentence you to a King Hit – stand down!)
Btw … there’ll be quite a few gerries up on that charge before the sun goes down for the last time (I’ll be the one in the wheelchair)
The trial has apparently been set to start on May 19..
As Lanthanide said, it is expected to take 10 days. So, unless Key and Co break with convention, the trial will coincide with the lead up to, and aftermath of the 2014 Budget – usually held in the second half of May. Convenient somewhat?
Have a look at what type of trial it is. Jury or judge.
The difference are that a judge will often reserve their judgement decision, often for several weeks. Whereas a jury will (usually if not hung) deliver a decision at the end of the trial (and the judge will frequently reserve the their sentencing decision).
If you look at the rules on MPs, only a *conviction* of the offense is required (ie based on potential prison term) to cause the effects on the coalition.
I agree Key will go early, but I’d be very surprised if he announces the date prior to calling the election, like he did in 2011. Then National outsmarted the opposition, by refusing to debate anything whatsoever until after the Rugby World Cup. That left just 5 weeks. Democracy it wasn’t.
My pick, and the one hesitation is what’s happening rugby wise, is that Key will call the election the day after Will and Kate leave New Zealand. Call me a cynic, not really, but the Woman’s mags will be lined up to print stories, Key will be featured right in the middle of it all, the right wing media will be fawning themselves over Wills and Kate, and all that publicity will too much to let slip. Key’s ratings should be sky high because of their visit.
the other point is that if banks goes the MP might decide to go at any time (I have the ompression that they’re still in the midst of a generational leadership transition). So if Key declares a Nov election in Jan, and loses confidence in June, he looks weak.
But if he “spontaneously” calls a snap election after a royal visit, he looks like the same fuckwit that’s worked for him for years.
“So if Key declares a Nov election in Jan, and loses confidence in June, he looks weak.”
Does he? Or do the Maori Party look petty for bringing an already-scheduled election forwards for purely political reasons, breaking their promises in the process.
That has to be countered with the ‘mana’ the MP might gain from bringing down a right-wing government. I suspect there’s probably more mana in keeping your promises than breaking them, though, especially if the resultant election sees National win again – the MP would be unlikely to get another deal from Key.
The Maori party can choose any pretext for knocking out the govt. If the pretext holds up to the electorate, then it’s not a petty reason and key looks bad for being incapable of holdng a coalition together. If the pretext looks petty, then Key can’t even hold a coalition of children. The Prime Minister cannot look like a victim of a smaller party’s whims.
That’s why I think Key would be stupid to announce a november election this far out.
I suspect a lolly scramble budget following a royal visit and using the pretext of Banks’ trial (regardless of outcome) would be the most opportune time for the nats to announce/hold the election.
4th quarter election is running at 80c on iPredict, so if you’re right about your 3rd quarter prediction you could make a good return on it.
Also I don’t think the MP will turn on him, not this close to an election, and take the risk of not getting back into government if National were to win.
Unless there were some extreme circumstances, like Key retiring as leader & PM and the MP used that as an excuse, or National just had terrible polling (say around 39-40%) so it became clear that Labour would win the election, the MP could then claim they were doing the public’s will. But otherwise I just don’t see it happening.
I’m not discounting a 4Q election, I’m just doubtful that key will be announcing the election well in advance like he did last time – the possibility of a steep nat plumment after the early year’s good-news events would be too great, and that would make their current and future partners shaky.
The Maori Party may not even need to choose a pretext. They have not supported every piece of legislation put up by National – eg asset sales – where the Dunne/Banks votes have been vital.
Another factor is the absentee rules in respect of voting. As I commented on a number of times in 2013, the MP only registered two votes, not three, on many occasions due to absences from Parliament due to these rules. IIRC, it would only take all three of the MP members to be absent without prior approval of the Speaker for their votes to drop to one or nil (I cannot recall the rules exactly, and don’t have time now to check) – thereby ‘inadvertently’ allowing a crucial (to National) vote to fail, if the Epsom seat was also vacant.
Labour’s numbers in the House are now back up to full strength after being down for various periods in 2013 due to Parekura Horomia’s death and Dalziel’s departure; so National will need all their coalition numbers in 2014.
These are also reasons why I believe that Key will call an early election, in addition to those in my two earlier comments above in this thread,
“The Maori Party may not even need to choose a pretext. They have not supported every piece of legislation put up by National – eg asset sales – where the Dunne/Banks votes have been vital.”
But that’s the entire point of their supply and confidence agreement. They guarantee their vote on matters on supply and confidence only. So far they’ve kept their word and there’s no reason to break it.
Agreed, Lanthanide, re supply and confidence agreement; and that they have kept their word on that. But also often with only two votes, not three due to the parliamentary absence rules. (The particular ‘quirk’ in the rules only seems to affect the MP at present).
But Turia and Sharples are often absent from the House, and it would not surprise me if this increases with their impending retirements and they forget to get the required approval to allow them to still register the one vote they can get when they are both absent. Time will tell.
Thank you Lanthanide, veutoviper, bearded git, Will@Welly, Tim and McFlock. I really enjoyed that discussion about election timing possibilities. Something I had been wondering about given the influence of scheduled events around Dotcom and Banks.
Wish the Windsors’ weren’t popping in with the new bubba though. It’s an unwelcome candyfloss coated distraction in what could otherwise be a glee fest of come uppances for the high tard of Nu Zuland.
Bear in mind also Dotcom’s extradition hearing. The last I heard, the FBI were looking to have it delayed until October 2014 on the pretext they weren’t going to be ready sooner. Now that would fit in nicely with an election around August wouldn’t it. Anything negative that comes out about Key – and there clearly is something – isn’t going to matter.
Hi Anne. I am interested in your comments re the FBI seeking to have the extradition hearing delayed until Oct. Have you any links etc for this information? I obviously must have missed this, despite following the case closely.
Would not surprise me, but I also think the separate but related ongoing legal issues /hearings re the release of seized records back to Dotcom to allow him and the others to prepare their defence will also affect matters and timing of the extradition hearing.
Thanks also for you unnumbered comment re Cunliffe being well prepared for an early election. Did not doubt that he would be doing so, but as you are closer to the inner workings of Labour, that is reassuring. I also understand that electoral candidates will be finalised by the end of Feb, which is also good.
I think it was brought up by someone (an American I think) during an interview on Radio NZ in December. Trying to trace it but no luck so far. The FBI are just requesting a further delay at this point… so it will be some time in Feb/March before it will actually be heard and a decision made. It’s getting suspicious in my view – these FBI initiated delays.
There are a number of possibilities. One set revolves around the Federal case having suffered a major (or fatal) set back of some kind. Whether it is legal advice received which indicates charges against Dotcom would fail (perhaps for reasons of technicality), an inability to find or access incriminating data they had made assumptions about, or some other factor in a similar vein. I can hope against hope, but sadly seriously doubt, that lack of cooperation from NZ authorities plays a role somewhere.
Which leads to a related second set of possibilities. Letting Dotcom off scot free is no doubt politically unpalatable to some parties on both sides of the Pacific. So the delay may be related to special law which is to be passed specifically targeting Dotcom (such special law being a favourite of totalitarian regimes still interested in maintaining sack cloth like rags of legitimacy), waiting to see if his new services eg MEGA somehow incriminate him, or perhaps simply stalling the whole process in order to not make it obvious to one and all that the whole thing has been a contrived bloody cockup from the get-go.
…or perhaps simply stalling the whole process in order to not make it obvious to one and all that the whole thing has been a contrived bloody cockup from the get-go.
Very good Bill, lots of layers in that. It’s a shame if you don’t comment as I think your perspectives would be helpful (given your relative semi-neutrality).
I like this bit from the link Nuclear Unicorn – It’s a thoughtful piece and heartfelt. So much online social justice activism has become hyper-vigilant against sin, great or small, past or present.
Hi Bill,
I read the link. I think it’s a pity that you don’t want to comment because beyond all the anger (note – not rage) I also wanted to understand. Maybe that’s one kind of ‘walking and chewing gum’ that just can’t be done, and I think there are tight limits to what can be achieved in a forum like this anyway.
I love this song – it has always felt like it was written for the family I grew up in.
Blue eyes fighting the gray eyes
Fighting the tears
Armed to the teeth for a war of words
Reachin’ all the years
I advanced across a poppy field
I saw the gleam as you raised your shield
And love screamed down
With the sun behind its back
Our fathers were all soldiers
Shall we be soldiers too?
Fighting and falling like soldiers do
Nothing is clear in this tactical
Unclear war
I can’t be bothered to find out
What we are fighting for
No one can win this war of the senses
I see no reason to drop my defenses
So stand fast my emotions
Rally ’round my shaking heart
Our fathers were all soldiers
Shall we be soldiers too?
Fighting and falling like soldiers do
Blue eyes fighting the gray eyes
Fighting the tears
Armed to the teeth for a war of words
Reachin’ all the years
I advanced across a poppy field
I saw the gleam as you raised your shield
And love screamed down
With the sun behind its back
I knew once again I was under attack
So stand fast my emotions
Rally ’round my shaking heart
Our fathers were all soldiers
Shall we be soldiers too?
Fighting and falling like soldiers
Fighting and falling like soldiers
Fighting and falling like soldiers do
” GOP critics have said the Fed has inflated stock and real estate prices by pumping money into the markets, creating investment bubbles that could burst and wound the economy anew.”
We didnt have qe, as advocated by the green party, but we have an inflated auckland property market.
put money in. Pull money out. Both equal inflated house prices…
weka
I say nimbys for a couple of reasons…
prof people with access to media
sneddon a lawyer and one other named. Lawyers are very good at wanting to stop something for self interest and the ability to make it seem altruistic.
my brother is in a similar socio econmoic bracket to these folks and he is very protective of his part time piece of paradise… despises the building going on in what used to be paddocks by his beach front and the noise of people it brings.
lastly I wanted to provoke a discussion. Thanks to your queries and others responses I learned a smidge more but remain convinced the white upper class wants separation from the great unwashed
Thinking of their attitude as nimbyism sits comfortably with my prejudices about the rich and their rural retreats. Once their particular mansion is finished and the road is sealed, they generally want all development to stop. I say why wait that long? If they don’t like what happens on public land, they shouldn’t have built there in the first place.
There has been a similar problem over here, on the Gold Coast. Some people with houses near the beach are annoyed about a walking track that passes in front of their sections. The local right wing politicians want to privatise the land and sell it to them for a song, so they won’t have to see the great unwashed crossing their lines of sight.
More brilliance from the NZ Herald. Reckons that Onion growers plan to place forward cover for sales at a “higher” cross rate rather than take the predicted lower spot rate in march…just weird. They are exporters not importers, locking in the higher rate with forward cover will cost them money.
+1
We’re on the way here too phillip.
Imagine if you will, two international students (conned by one of those tertiary institutions – since gone under – promising the world but delivering SFA through false advertising)
Imagine their folks raise the tens of thousands necessary to get their kids to the land of milk and honey
Then imagine after they complete their ‘degrees’ with flying colours, they find work (minimum wage of course and after paying various consultant and government dept fees).
Imagine they get bashed up, their documentation and only means of communication stolen by a few who’ve been let in by the local alcohol pumping station, and who as a result have gone feral.
Imagine getting dawn raided (of course we don’t do that anymore, OH NO) by ‘officials’ looking for ‘illegals’ – luckily photocopies of passports were held elsewhere.
Then imagine the costs of replacing doccumentation AND the time taken to do so (travel, time of work to do so, fees – such as over $100 for a replacement sticker ffs!). Time taken off btw posing a threat to their continued employment.
….. all up …. well over 2 grand including GST, plus racist jibes from gubbamint officials in various agencies.
What a nasty, petty, punitive, fascist little state we’ve become!
Kind of Rough Justice if you ask me! I’ll be checking out the antidote tomorrow at the Pines, Wellington
…. oh, and btw
there are local bodies right here in little ole NuZuln who are for all practical purposes, enforcing (or at least attempting to) those same limitations on rain water collection.
…. all the while not-so-much-concerned with collecting the alternative ( of shit-laden H2O – o…o…oh) ‘water’ from a stream – somewhat downstream from those lugzurrrryis images of the truly green green 100% (only slightly tainted with cow ahit – BUT …. apparently better than rain water).
Fuk ’em all Phill. Ignore it – best policy, but be prepared to shuv it up them if ever they have the balls to contest
The biggest difference I can see from the original dawn raids is that the current ones are televised and turned into entertainment. NZ On Air pays to make crude propaganda for racist immigration policies so that NAct voting morons can sit on their fat arses thinking about how that bunch of Asians won’t be stealing their jobs. It’s not hard to see how fascism would be popular.
India, Sir Lanka, Sub-Sahara, Arab nations all sign an agreement, to dna
all state public servents. Charities, involved in sex and slavery crimes
likewise collect familiar matches with the missing, enslaved and raped
(and also fetuses).
Cross matching is automated for anonymity, but when matches are found
between say military officers and raped Tamils fetuses. Or sex slaves
in a NY, London, Dubai brothel is matched with their African sub-saharan
families enslaved daughter.
Children in the future worried about their heritage could
also match their own dna against these databases and find their parents
aren’t theirs but paid to buy them, or worse, kept the offspring from
their real enslaved mothers.
Now imagine the immediate threat, when any public servant, any slave
trader, any brothel owner, worried that they may in future be criminally
charged. It would have immediate effect to chill rapes in India
and Sri Lakia, to sex slavery in major global cities. Its would
show those countries also who are supporting global slavery,
the sex trade and rapists, that need servants of the state to ply their
criminal trades.
So is there a dna database without borders? Such a powerful tool.
I dedicate this post to Caroline Cox, her emotional voyeurism, her
spiritual conceit, and her unwillingness to take the wrongs to the wrong
doers, in a NR podcast 15 dec.
A powerful tool indeed. Consider also the cross database access that the intelligence services have. Their ability to match information that was never intended to be matched or alter/add/subtract records in various ways is, I believe, unparalleled, and the implications for civil life as yet, barely thought through.
On the one hand I’m thinking “yay, jobs for the beleagured Dunedin economy”, on the other hand I’m thinking “this is not going to help climate change”. On a third mutated hand I’m slightly worried the fracking might trigger an earthquake and tsunami, obliterating my beloved home town.
That’s a technical way of saying: “Yay, the shareholders of Shell, OMV and Mitsui are going to get a lot of money, and the New Zealand taxpayer will clear up the mess.”
On the one hand I’m thinking “yay, jobs for the beleagured Dunedin economy”, on the other hand I’m thinking “this is not going to help climate change”. On a third mutated hand I’m slightly worried the fracking might trigger an earthquake and tsunami, obliterating my beloved home town.
Not to worry, think of the helicopter tourism when the next lot of icebergs float past. There’s always the disaster tourism if things go badly. Plenty of jobs there.
What jobs for Dunedites? The exploratory ship and workers will all be from overseas. There may be a bit of a boost for the town’s; hotels, bars, and brothels if any of them ever come ashore, but that’s about all I can think of.
Also, this seems more of a conventional drilling operation (albeit in very deep water), rather than one involving fracking. I have to assume that you’ve been eating produce from Taranaki’s “landfarms” which would explain that “third mutated hand”.
That cyclist killed at the Parnell Rise incident. It’s depressing. My condolences to all concerned.
I have long felt there was always an accident waiting to happen at that intersection. However, I had thought it would be a pedestrian that would be hit. Motorists continue to turn at the lights after the lights turn red. Lorries/trucks, especially long ones, are the worst for pedestrians as the trucks take so long to clear the intersection, often after the pedestrian green light has turned red.
Haven’t been there for a while, so maybe they have improved the intersection recently. And maybe that truck driver wasn’t rushing to take the turn rather than wait for the next green light.
But, for a truck and cyclist to meet and impact – something wrong with the road provisions.
In dunedin, the scenario that seemed to really take a toll on cyclists was when drivers of parked cars opened doors into cycle lanes without looking, cyclist couldn’t stop in time and goes under truck. Last one I read about, the truck driver didn’t even know the cyclist had gone under his wheels – he’d purposely left good distance between the two and thought he’d passed without incident. Cops managed to tell him on the outskirts of town.
Since then they’ve roughly doubled the width of the cycle lanes – hopefully that will really cut things down (although I’ve noticed more pricks driving with their wheels in the cycle lane – although it seems to be about the same numbers as cyclists who cruise through red lights).
yeah, dunedin’s fecking abysmal like that – no hgv bypass, with the main highway going straight through the middle of town, right next to the regional tertiary care hospital and going through the university campus. Throw in a moronic and user-expensive public transport system, and frankly I’m surprised we don’t get more traffic fatalities.
There is so much good craic going on on Open Mike today, barely time to reflect and no time to respond except to say that the music will always amplify the voices of the collective thought and experience of those who are itching for change. Big ups too to just saying for the classic Billy Bragg.
Snow and ice are disappearing from the Arctic region at unprecedented rates, leaving behind relatively warmer open water, which is much less reflective to incoming sunlight than ice. That, among other factors, is causing the northern polar region of our planet to warm at a faster rate than the rest of the northern hemisphere. (And, just to state the obvious, global warming describes a global trend toward warmer temperatures, which doesn’t preclude occasional cold-weather extremes.)
Since the difference in temperature between the Arctic and the mid-latitudes helps drive the jet stream (which, in turn, drives most US weather patterns), if that temperature difference decreases, it stands to reason that the jet stream’s winds will slow down. Why does this matter?
Well, atmospheric theory predicts that a slower jet stream will produce wavier and more sluggish weather patterns, in turn leading to more frequent extreme weather. And, turns out, that’s exactly what we’ve been seeing in recent years. Superstorm Sandy’s uncharacteristic left hook into the New Jersey coast in 2012 was one such example of an extremely anomalous jet stream blocking pattern.
When these exceptionally wavy jet stream patterns occur mid-winter, it’s a recipe for cold air to get sucked southwards. This week, that’s happening in spectacular fashion.
By disturbing a massive ocean current, melting Arctic sea ice might trigger colder weather in Europe and North America.
That’s the paradoxical scenario gaining credibility among many climate scientists. The thawing of sea ice covering the Arctic could disturb or even halt large currents in the Atlantic Ocean. Without the vast heat that these ocean currents deliver—comparable to the power generation of a million nuclear power plants—Europe’s average temperature would likely drop 5 to 10°C (9 to 18°F), and parts of eastern North America would be chilled somewhat less.
Xox
As the climate changes, established weather patterns will change, causing freaky weather to happen. The IPCC has detailed modelling showing a range of forecasts. A huge amount of of information.
Happy New Year!I had a lovely break, thanks very much for asking: friends, family, sunshine, books, podcasts, refreshing swims, barbecues, bike rides. So good to step away from the firehose for a while, to have less Trump and Seymour in your day. Who needs the Luxons in their risible PJs ...
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Hi,Today’s Webworm features a new short film from documentary maker Giorgio Angelini. It’s about Luigi Mangione — but it’s also, really, about everything in America right now.Bear with me.Shortly after I sent out my last missive from the fires on Wednesday, one broke out a little too close to home ...
So soon just after you've goneMy senses sharpenBut it always takes so damn longBefore I feel how much my eyes have darkenedFear hangs in a plane of gun smokeDrifting in our roomSo easy to disturb, with a thought, with a whisperWith a careless memorySongwriters: Andy Taylor / John Taylor / ...
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Sometimes I feel like I don't have a partnerSometimes I feel like my only friendIs the city I live in, The City of AngelsLonely as I am together we crySong: Anthony Kiedis, Chad Smith, Flea, John Frusciante.A home is engulfed in flames during the Eaton fire in the Altadena area. ...
Open access notablesLarge emissions of CO2 and CH4 due to active-layer warming in Arctic tundra, Torn et al., Nature Communications:Climate warming may accelerate decomposition of Arctic soil carbon, but few controlled experiments have manipulated the entire active layer. To determine surface-atmosphere fluxes of carbon dioxide and ...
It's election year for Wellington City Council and for the Regional Council. What have the progressive councillors achieved over the last couple of years. What were the blocks and failures? What's with the targeting of the mayor and city council by the Post and by central government? Why does the ...
Over the holidays, there was a rising tide of calls for people to submit on National's repulsive, white supremacist Principles of the Treaty of Waitangi Bill, along with a wave of advice and examples of what to say. And it looks like people rose to the occasion, with over 300,000 ...
The lie is my expenseThe scope of my desireThe Party blessed me with its futureAnd I protect it with fireI am the Nina The Pinta The Santa MariaThe noose and the rapistAnd the fields overseerThe agents of orangeThe priests of HiroshimaThe cost of my desire…Sleep now in the fireSongwriters: Brad ...
This is a re-post from the Climate BrinkGlobal surface temperatures have risen around 1.3C since the preindustrial (1850-1900) period as a result of human activity.1 However, this aggregate number masks a lot of underlying factors that contribute to global surface temperature changes over time.These include CO2, which is the primary ...
There are times when movement around us seems to slow down. And the faster things get, the slower it all appears.And so it is with the whirlwind of early year political activity.They are harbingers for what is to come:Video: Wayne Wright Jnr, funder of Sean Plunket, talk growing power and ...
Hi,Right now the power is out, so I’m just relying on the laptop battery and tethering to my phone’s 5G which is dropping in and out. We’ll see how we go.First up — I’m fine. I can’t see any flames out the window. I live in the greater Hollywood area ...
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Time is never time at allYou can never ever leaveWithout leaving a piece of youthAnd our lives are forever changedWe will never be the sameThe more you change, the less you feelSongwriter: William Patrick Corgan.Babinden - Baba’s DayToday, January 8th, 2025, is Babinden, “The Day of the baba” or “The ...
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Everything is good and brownI'm here againWith a sunshine smile upon my faceMy friends are close at handAnd all my inhibitions have disappeared without a traceI'm glad, oh, that I found oohSomebody who I can rely onSongwriter: Jay KayGood morning, all you lovely people. Today, I’ve got nothing except a ...
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Ooh, baby (ooh, baby)It's making me crazy (it's making me crazy)Every time I look around (look around)Every time I look around (every time I look around)Every time I look aroundIt's in my faceSongwriters: Alan Leo Jansson / Paul Lawrence L. Fuemana.Today, I’ll be talking about rich, middle-aged men who’ve made ...
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And when a child is born into this worldIt has no conceptOf the tone of skin it's living inAnd there's a million voicesAnd there's a million voicesTo tell you what you should be thinkingSong by Neneh Cherry and Youssou N'Dour.The moment you see that face, you can hear her voice; ...
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Baby, be the class clownI'll be the beauty queen in tearsIt's a new art form, showin' people how little we care (yeah)We're so happy, even when we're smilin' out of fearLet's go down to the tennis court and talk it up like, yeah (yeah)Songwriters: Joel Little / Ella Yelich O ...
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Completed reads for December: Be A Wolf!, by Brian Strickland The Magic Flute [libretto], by Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart and Emanuel Schikaneder The Invisible Eye, by Erckmann-Chatrian The Owl’s Ear, by Erckmann-Chatrian The Waters of Death, by Erckmann-Chatrian The Spider, by Hanns Heinz Ewers Who Knows?, by Guy de Maupassant ...
Well, it’s the last day of the year, so it’s time for a quick wrap-up of the most important things that happened in 2024 for urbanism and transport in our city. A huge thank you to everyone who has visited the blog and supported us in our mission to make ...
Leave your office, run past your funeralLeave your home, car, leave your pulpitJoin us in the streets where weJoin us in the streets where weDon't belong, don't belongHere under the starsThrowing light…Song: Jeffery BuckleyToday, I’ll discuss the standout politicians of the last 12 months. Each party will receive three awards, ...
Hi,A lot’s happened this year in the world of Webworm, and as 2024 comes to an end I thought I’d look back at a few of the things that popped. Maybe you missed them, or you might want to revisit some of these essay and podcast episodes over your break ...
Hi,I wanted to share this piece by film editor Dan Kircher about what cinema has been up to in 2024.Dan edited my documentary Mister Organ, as well as this year’s excellent crowd-pleasing Bookworm.Dan adores movies. He gets the language of cinema, he knows what he loves, and writes accordingly. And ...
Without delving into personal details but in order to give readers a sense of the year that was, I thought I would offer the study in contrasts that are Xmas 2023 and Xmas 2024: Xmas 2023 in Starship Children’s Hospital (after third of four surgeries). Even opening presents was an ...
Heavy disclaimer: Alpha/beta/omega dynamics is a popular trope that’s used in a wide range of stories and my thoughts on it do not apply to all cases. I’m most familiar with it through the lens of male-focused fanfic, typically m/m but sometimes also featuring m/f and that’s the situation I’m ...
Hi,Webworm has been pretty heavy this year — mainly because the world is pretty heavy. But as we sprint (or limp, you choose) through the final days of 2024, I wanted to keep Webworm a little lighter.So today I wanted to look at one of the biggest and weirdest elements ...
A listing of 23 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, December 22, 2024 thru Sat, December 28, 2024. This week's roundup is the second one published soleley by category. We are still interested in feedback to hone the categorization, ...
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KP continues to putt-putt along as a tiny niche blog that offers a NZ perspective on international affairs with a few observations about NZ domestic politics thrown in. In 2024 there was also some personal posts given that my son was in the last four months of a nine month ...
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.Acknowledgement: Tim PrebbleThanks for reading Frankly Speaking ! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work..With each passing day of bad headlines, squandering tax revenue to enrich the rich, deep cuts to our social services and a government struggling to keep the lipstick on its neo-liberal pig ...
This is from the 36th Parallel social media account (as brief food for thought). We know that Trump is ahistorical at best but he seems to think that he is Teddy Roosevelt and can use the threat of invoking the Monroe Doctrine and “Big Stick” gunboat diplomacy against Panama and ...
Don't you cry tonightI still love you, babyAnd don't you cry tonightDon't you cry tonightThere's a heaven above you, babyAnd don't you cry tonightSong: Axl Rose and Izzy Stradlin“Time is an illusion. Lunchtime doubly so”, said possibly the greatest philosopher ever to walk this earth, Douglas Adams.We have entered the ...
Because you're magicYou're magic people to meSong: Dave Para/Molly Para.Morena all, I hope you had a good day yesterday, however you spent it. Today, a few words about our celebration and a look at the various messages from our politicians.A Rockel XmasChristmas morning was spent with the five of us ...
This video includes personal musings and conclusions of the creator climate scientist Dr. Adam Levy. It is presented to our readers as an informed perspective. Please see video description for references (if any). 2024 has been a series of bad news for climate change. From scorching global temperatures leading to devastating ...
Ríu Ríu ChíuRíu Ríu Chíu is a Spanish Christmas song from the 16th Century. The traditional carol would likely have passed unnoticed by the English-speaking world had the made-for-television American band The Monkees not performed the song as part of their special Christmas show back in 1967. The show's ...
Dunedin’s summer thus far has been warm and humid… and it looks like we’re in for a grey Christmas. But it is now officially Christmas Day in this time zone, so never mind. This year, I’ve stumbled across an Old English version of God Rest Ye Merry Gentlemen: [youtube ...
The Green Party welcomes the extension of the deadline for Treaty Principles Bill submissions but continues to call on the Government to abandon the Bill. ...
Complaints about disruptive behaviour now handled in around 13 days (down from around 60 days a year ago) 553 Section 55A notices issued by Kāinga Ora since July 2024, up from 41 issued during the same period in the previous year. Of that 553, first notices made up around 83 ...
The time it takes to process building determinations has improved significantly over the last year which means fewer delays in homes being built, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “New Zealand has a persistent shortage of houses. Making it easier and quicker for new homes to be built will ...
Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden is pleased to announce the annual list of New Zealand’s most popular baby names for 2024. “For the second consecutive year, Noah has claimed the top spot for boys with 250 babies sharing the name, while Isla has returned to the most popular ...
Work is set to get underway on a new bus station at Westgate this week. A contract has been awarded to HEB Construction to start a package of enabling works to get the site ready in advance of main construction beginning in mid-2025, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.“A new Westgate ...
Minister for Children and for Prevention of Family and Sexual Violence Karen Chhour is encouraging people to use the resources available to them to get help, and to report instances of family and sexual violence amongst their friends, families, and loved ones who are in need. “The death of a ...
Uia te pō, rangahaua te pō, whakamāramatia mai he aha tō tango, he aha tō kāwhaki? Whitirere ki te ao, tirotiro kau au, kei hea taku rātā whakamarumaru i te au o te pakanga mo te mana motuhake? Au te pō, ngū te pō, ue hā! E te kahurangi māreikura, ...
Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says people with diabetes and other painful conditions will benefit from a significant new qualification to boost training in foot care. “It sounds simple, but quality and regular foot and nail care is vital in preventing potentially serious complications from diabetes, like blisters or sores, which can take a long time to heal ...
Associate Health Minister with responsibility for Pharmac David Seymour is pleased to see Pharmac continue to increase availability of medicines for Kiwis with the government’s largest ever investment in Pharmac. “Pharmac operates independently, but it must work within the budget constraints set by the government,” says Mr Seymour. “When this government assumed ...
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Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden is wishing all New Zealanders a great holiday season as Kiwis prepare for gatherings with friends and families to see in the New Year. It is a great time of year to remind everyone to stay fire safe over the summer. “I know ...
From 1 January 2025, first-time tertiary learners will have access to a new Fees Free entitlement of up to $12,000 for their final year of provider-based study or final two years of work-based learning, Tertiary Education and Skills Minister Penny Simmonds says. “Targeting funding to the final year of study ...
“As we head into one of the busiest times of the year for Police, and family violence and sexual violence response services, it’s a good time to remind everyone what to do if they experience violence or are worried about others,” Minister for the Prevention of Family and Sexual Violence ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Steve Turton, Adjunct Professor of Environmental Geography, CQUniversity Australia The world has watched in horror as fires continue to raze parts of Los Angeles, California. For those of us living in Australia, one of the world’s most fire-prone continents, the LA experience ...
Every story about the Ministry of Regulation seems to be about staffing cost blow-outs. The red tape slashing Ministry needs teeth, sure, but all we seem to hear about are teething problems, says axpayers’ Union Policy and Public Affairs Manager James ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Carmen Lim, NHMRC Emerging Leadership Fellow, National Centre for Youth Substance Use Research, The University of Queensland Visualistka/Shutterstock A multi-million dollar business has developed in Australia to meet the demand for medicinal cannabis. Australians spent more than A$400 million on it ...
Summer reissue: The tide is turning on Insta-therapy. Good riddance, but actual therapy is still good and worth doing. The Spinoff needs to double the number of paying members we have to continue telling these kinds of stories. Please read our open letter and sign up to be a member ...
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Tara Ward wades bravely into one of the thorniest January questions: how late is too late to greet someone with a cheery ‘Happy New Year’? Every January, New Zealand faces a big problem. I’m not referring to penguins strolling into petrol stations or cranky seagulls eating your chips, but something ...
The proposed Bill cuts across existing and soon-to-be-implemented frameworks, including Part 4 of the Legislation Act 2019, which is slated to come into force next year, and will make sensible improvements to regulation-making. ...
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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Pavlina Jasovska, Senior Lecturer in International Business & Strategy, University of Technology Sydney Multiculturalism is central to Australia’s identity, with more than half the population coming from overseas or having parents who did. Most Australians view multiculturalism positively. However, many experience ...
Treaty issues will dominate the first six months, but that’s not all, writes Stewart Sowman-Lund in the first Bulletin of 2025. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here. ...
Summer reissue: The Kim Dotcom challenge to John Key culminated in an extravaganza joining dots from the US, the UK, Russia – even North Korea. And it got very messy. Toby Manhire casts his eye back a decade.The Spinoff needs to double the number of paying members we have ...
In our latest in-depth podcast investigation, Fractured, Melanie Reid and her team delve deep into a complex case involving a controversial medical diagnosis and its fallout on a young family. While Fractured is a forensic examination of this case here in New Zealand, the diagnosis that started it all is ...
Close to 2000 New Zealanders died carrying student loans in 2024, with the Inland Revenue Department having to wipe $28.8 million in unpaid debt.Both the number and value of loans being written off due to the holder dying has tripled over the past decade, government figures show. In 2014, $9 ...
Opinion: In late December we learned that, after a four-year battle with the Charities Services, Te Whānau O Waipareira Trust looks set to be deregistered as a charity. Most of what we know about the activities of Waipareira Trust, and the resulting Charities Services’ investigations, is due to tenacious reporting ...
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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s Sunday “soft launch” of his campaign for election year was carefully calibrated to pitch to the party faithful while seeking to project enough nuance to avoid alienating centrist voters. It ...
Paula Southgate says she is not standing for re-election as she wants to make way for emerging leaders and spend more time with her friends and family. ...
The bipartisan support in parliament for the Foreign Interference Bill is a warning that there is no constituency in the New Zealand ruling class for the maintenance of basic democratic rights. There has been no critical reporting on the bill in the ...
Democracy Now!AMY GOODMAN: This is Democracy Now! As we continue our discussion of President Jimmy Carter’s legacy, we look at his policies in the Middle East and North Africa, in particular, Israel and Palestine.On Thursday during the state funeral in Washington, President Carter’s former adviser Stuart Eizenstat praised ...
By Patrick Decloitre, RNZ Pacific correspondent French Pacific desk France’s naval flagship, the 261m aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle, is to be deployed to the Pacific later this year, as part of an exercise codenamed “Clémenceau 25”. French Naval Command Etat-Major’s Commodore Jacques Mallard told a French media briefing that ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Richard Vaughan, PhD Researcher Sport Integrity, University of Canberra As the Australian Open gets under way in Melbourne, the sport is facing a crisis over positive doping tests involving two of the biggest stars in tennis. Last March, the top-ranked men’s player, ...
Summer reissue: New Zealand used to be a country of vibrant synthetic striped polyprop. Then we got boring – and discovered merino. The Spinoff needs to double the number of paying members we have to continue telling these kinds of stories. Please read our open letter and sign up to ...
It was a mild, cloudy morning in May 1974 when Oliver Sutherland and his wife, Ulla Sköld, were confronted, on their doorstep, by one of the country’s top cops.The couple were key members of the group Auckland Committee on Racism and Discrimination (Acord), which had been pushing the government to ...
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Since the dramatic scenes at Kabul Airport in 2021 of thousands of Afghans desperately seeking to escape, fearful of what a new Taliban regime would mean for their lives and livelihoods, the focus on Afghanistan in New Zealand has predictably waned. New crises have emerged, with the conflicts in Ukraine ...
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Summer reissue: Rachel Hunter sold out a Christchurch school hall for a mysterious sounding ‘Community Event’. Alex Casey went along to find out what it was all about. The Spinoff needs to double the number of paying members we have to continue telling these kinds of stories. Please read our ...
Summer reissue: Drinking wasn’t just a pastime, it was my profession – and it got way out of control. The Spinoff needs to double the number of paying members we have to continue telling these kinds of stories. Please read our open letter and sign up to be a member ...
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Asia Pacific Report A Palestine solidarity advocate today appealed to New Zealanders to shed their feelings of powerlessness over the Gaza genocide and “take action” in support of an effective global strategy of boycott, divestment and sanctions. “Many of us have become addicted to ‘doom scrolling’ — reading or watching ...
Paul Buchanan said on radio yesterday that Snowden is about to release files about NZ as one of the Five Eyes spying partners. The files may show that NZ was spying on China which could worsen our economic relations with that country.
The MSM’s re-modelling of Colin Craig as Nats’ potential coalition partner continues. But it looks like that no matter what the media is trying to do, the general public’s perception of Colin Craig as a nutter will not be changed. The December polls seem to suggest so.
Also, it seems that Rodney Hide will have a go at Act’s leadership. This Sunday on Radio Live, he was adamant that Act will win again in Epsom but would not disclose who will lead Act in 2014 on the way to election.
Interesting times ahead.
Vote the bastards out!
Also, it seems that Rodney Hide will have a go at Act’s leadership.
Didn’t the dark lord Douglas recently say that Rodney Hide shouldn’t be ACT leader again?
Edit:
Ah yes, here it is..
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11174085
Not that it matters, neither the ACT party, Roger Douglas or Rodney Hide are worth two knobs of goat shit.
Be careful. Craig Colins may be unelectable but could get in on the list.
Bennett is going up against her thinner blonder? self in North Harbor.
The thinking I suppose is National voters may see no difference and know Bennett will get in on the National list.
Then whats her name will then get over the line, and drag Craig with her.
That’s what the freak show needs to be exposed, National extremist gambit in the North Auckland seat, putting in a religious right into parliament.
You see instead of whatshername winning on her record, she gets cover from the Craig and legitimacy from pounding the pavement against Bennett in a sideshow of vacuous sound bites.
Its why Key wouldn’t do away with the single member party loophole.
Amrite
interesting indeed. Nicky hager is the first I recall reading of 5 eyes. I tip my hat to him. Corngate. Hollowmen. Five eyes and his fabulous bruce jesson speech.
imo he is a homwgrown hero for his digging and head above the parapet.
And don’t forget “Other People’s Wars” Tracey. It’s a tome, but well worth ploughing through…
That book came about because a group of concerned military officers – some very senior – were appalled by the lies and misinformation that was being reported about New Zealand’s involvement in Afghanistan in particular, and were willing to talk to him. He told a group of us “we would be amazed at just who was willing to come forward and talk to him”.
A repeat performance of “The Hollow Men” in many ways.
Arise Sir Nicky then. (Though I would hope he would tell them where to stuff their knighthood.)
😆
“Other People’s Wars” is well worth reading and rams home the senselessness of our having anything except a coastguard and some sort of peace keeping and disaster response ability. The RNZAF might as well wear USAF uniforms and as soon as our admirals get blue water ships, they sail off and mix themselves up in adventures on behalf of the yanks. If they won’t take orders from civilian authority, I don’t see why civilians should pay their salaries. I would say the spooks are even less interested in working for us.
Murray O
+1
Agree Murray Olsen.
I spent five years working in a civilian capacity on an Air Force base. During that time I had direct contact with flight crews on a daily basis. I don’t mind telling you I was impressed with their professionalism and the work they did. There were the Orions flying out on daily missions (almost) policing our 200 mile fishing zone. Hercules aircraft were constantly shifting equipment and personnel from one place to another. A couple of Boeing aircraft did the shifting of large numbers of Defence personnel around the country and overseas. There were search and rescue missions of one kind or another almost on a weekly basis and weather related emergencies. The Air Force did an exceptional job during the Cyclone Bola emergency – travelling backwards and forwards 24/7 for several weeks without let-up. They deserved a collective medal for that alone. And finally the overseas peace-keeping and “re-construction” missions. More than enough to keep a small but very professional group of people in full time employment.
We can fulfil out international obligations without fighting and scrapping in “other people’s wars”.
Always wondered what the inflight entertainment and catering was like on airforce Boeing flights? Do they have flight stewards just like on civilian aircraft with free food and grog?
Amrite
maybe hooten is standing. Apart from calling garth george a socialist he has been quite moderate for him lately.
Hooton is too savvy to tie himself to a political corpse.
@ lanth..
..hooten could argue he will reinviorate the party..start anew..
..and the alternative for tory voters..
..is ‘chem-trails’-colin..?
..whoar..!..
..hooten/act/epsom looks like a safe haven..compared to that madness..
..so i wouldn’t be so dismissive of that possibility..
..but of course hooten wouldn’t announce that until later in the year..
..because he would lose his (valuable) profile-building/tory policy-arguing slot on radio new zealand..
..as soon as that announcement is made..
phillip ure..
Though not savvy enough to tie himself to various acolytes and apologists (RNZ gigs et al) when sleepy hobbits awaken and the masses look back in anger.
I want it, AND I want it NOW!
Might take a while though, and thankfully I’ll be long gone – either into the ether, or somewhere in the 90 degree parallel
Hooton’s really trying to re-fashion his public image. Recently he even pretended to be an admirer of Nelson Mandela…..
http://publicaddress.net/hardnews/mandela/
http://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-30122013/#comment-750859
http://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-31122013/#comment-751356
Lanth
had been thinking about that but never underestimate the ego to take one in a contradictory direction.
+1
How come you’re so smart Tracey?
Viewing that clip of the ‘Judge asking questions” suspected of getting him fired from Fox News
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=52b_1329796059
I was struck by and enjoyed his clear diction, something which with notable exceptions is largely missing in New Zealand reports and interviewees as with most of what emerges from around the world.
Which is a primary reason that the written word has such an attraction for me when one works through the typos and mis-spelling so common these days as people simply either do not know or do not check what they have written.
(this is a copy of my reply to Draco who posted the clip yesterday and i realise it has little to do with your particular point jcuknz but along with the deficient spelling etc, attention being paid to the world’s timeline is also something which seems to be diminishing)
the clip was from February 2012, here is what Napolitano had to say about the cancellation
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/02/14/andrew-napolitano-fans-fox-email_n_1276468.html
and it was his job to be seen to ask those ‘radical’ questions so FOX could say it is balanced when delivering the plethora of ‘stay on message’ propaganda pieces that passes for news on FOX.
and remember he is currently senior judicial analyst for Fox News Channel
http://www.foxnews.com/on-air/personalities/andrew-p-napolitano/bio/#s=m-q
Thanx for that.
what david cunnliffe needs to do..in his state of the nation speech..
http://whoar.co.nz/2014/the-us-declared-war-on-poverty-50-years-ago-you-would-never-know-it-comment-what-cunnliffe-must-do-and-how-about-that-glaucoma-madnessblindness-eh/
and how about that glaucoma-madness..?..eh..?
(excerpt..)
“….and as an aside:..here is another example of the madness that labour/the next progressive govt must tend to..
..did you know that if you get glaucoma..that you can get a relatively simple operation to fix that..or you can slowly go blind..
..now..these (uncaring/randite-madness-driven)tory arsewipes who currently rule over us..
..have ordered that if you get glaucoma when you are over the age of sixty..
..and you don’t have the few grand it costs to get the operation private..
..that you can just get fucked..
..you can just go slowly blind..
..now..do i have to point out to readers the utterly mindfucking madness of a policy like this..?
..and how these shortsighted-fools (pun intentional) obviously have not factored into their brilliant cost-saving policy..
..the costs to the country of caring for those soon to be blind elderly..
..utter..fucken..madness..
..and as for the human costs to those slowly going blind elderly new zealanders..?
..they just don’t fucken care…
..and there you are mr cunnliffe..
..there is a populism-drenched idea/promise for you to both easily make..
..and to use as an example-club of how these tories are both totally uncaring for the poor citizens of this country..
..and fucken economically-illiterate..
..their greed-driven neo-lib/randite ‘beliefs’..
..seeming to shield them from viewing the human outcomes of what they preach..”
(cont.)
phillip ure..
They don’t give a shit. Check out Homepaddock ‘Saving species nearly killed it’, Ele Ludemann making analogies about DOC wasting money saving genetic lines that she says should have been left to die out and likening that to welfare spending. G Edgeler called her out on it and she back tracked, but not before showing her true colours.
and of course ludemann is a part of that huge number of rightwing voices on national radio afternoon..
..and she usually trots out absolutely ancient internet-drivel..
..(leavened with neo-lib-seasoning..)
..ludemann is as funny as a piece of wood..and as insightful as a rock,..
..i dunno what she is meant to be doing in that slot..
..(some kind on online/new-journalism/blog-expert..?..oh dear..!..)
phillip ure..
Her right wing blog is promoted by her being on Afternoons. The blog is nothing but pure right wing spin. As seen by the post I mentioned, her views are extreme.
Well spotted. That blog has everything…the preachy-teachy far right lines, direct from Nat HQ. The ‘let them eat cake’ condescension, almost a self -parody. Relentless farming coverups for the usual suspects..pollution and destruction. Sort of ‘twinset-and-pearls on steroids’.
Should be subtitled ‘The Red Neck with a Blue Rinse’…;)
There is talk of pardoning Snowden but I think he should be given the Medal of Honour for bravery in taking on the largest and most powerful country/ group of countries in the world, or perhaps a Nobel Prize with its monetry tags would be more useful
I tend to agree – he id’d an issue, recognised the action he could take at great personal risk, and executed that action intelligently and with care for the safety of himself and others.
I think the argument that he exposed national security, which he has, is wrong since who was handing out state secrets to contractors, not Snowden. How was Snowden to know they would harm National Security, he’s not suppose to have National Security secrets, he’s not a government employee.
Its hugely chilling to democracy to find out that private firms could be working state databases for profitable opportunities. Were the contracts auctioned? Did partially foreign owned entities win contracts? Will companies from five eye nations get to bid in the next round.
When the government spends billions collecting data on everyone on the planet and only private entities with connections in washington can harvest that information, protected by state national security laws, then we all better start worrying.
Well, yes he did compromise the state security apparatus by revealing the extent of their surveillance (and thus the fact they has misled their political overseers, for example). It’s now working its way through the legal system – and I wonder if even Scalia can argue it’s constitutional…
What he didn’t do (AFAIK) was compromise the safety of individuals, agents, or informants (other than himself).
Giving secrets to contractors can be a required part of the job – they just get bound by security agreements etc. Whether such work should be privatised is another argument altogether.
If you wondered who is able to afford lakeside holiday homes, wonder no more…
A bit of nimbyism from our tourism chief?
http://m.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11182176
I don’t know Tracey. On the face of it, it does look like there are reasonable issues to object on. I’m sure there is more to the story than we can see in that article, but it does seem an odd design if you want cyclists and walkers to use the same track. Plus the concrete is ugly as, at least in that photo.
Rubbish Weka it’s rank nimbyism. If people like Sneddon get their way there will be no new public tracks through NZ, with their obvious massive economic and health benefits. Agree on the concrete though.
You must have read a different article to me then. Looks like they were objecting to the way the path was being constructed, not that it was there (looks to me like the access has been there for quite some time, that berm isn’t new). Plus my points about design stand. Where are you getting your information from?
The current focus on putting tracks in everywhere is a mire of conflicting needs. Simplifying that down to a catch-cry of NIMBYism is not helpful.
“An even worse situation is where the lessee of a Crown Pastoral Lease has, for no good reason apart from rank selfishness and nimbyism, absolutely refused access across Crown Land beside Lake Roxburgh causing the cycle/walking trail between Alexandra and Roxburgh to be discontinuous, necessitating an expensive and inconvenient boat trip for several kilometres, a situation that puts off many cyclists/walkers.”
Selfishness and nimbyism, how do you know? What has the farmer said?
It’s been well reported in the press down here Weka. Basically the farmers say it is our pastoral lease so stuff you. Admittedly there might be very slight, and I mean very slight, adverse effects from the track on farming, but these have to be weighed against the purposes of the Crown pastoral Lease Act which aims:
“to promote the management of reviewable land in a way that is ecologically sustainable………… to enable the protection of the significant inherent values of the reviewable land…………and to make easier the securing of public access to and enjoyment of reviewable land” (Crown Pastoral Land Act 1998, S.24).
Are you sure there is not more to it than that? Often in those situations there is history that needs to be resolved. And I still don’t see how you can make the same judgement about the Taupo situation unless you have more facts than the rest of us.
btw, last time I drove through the Millenium track from Miller’s Flat to Beaumont, I thought what a complete fuck up. Trees being removed, big fences put up, an increadibly beautiful piece of landscape made ugly (not that the farmers don’t contribute to that as well). I’m sure in time some of that will sort itself out, but bike tracks aren’t always the bees knees. Increasing numbers of access sometimes takes things away. Fuck tourism and this idea that development is always good.
What if the idea of trespass was dumped but access by way of neat little suburban like paths wasn’t provided?
Lack of trespass works well in other countries. And whereas tourists and ‘day trippers’ might be drawn by the idea of a nice stroll down a tarmac/concrete/rubber/gravel walkway, they might not be so drawn to walking/scrambling over ‘natural’ countryside.
And yes. Agree. Fuck the tourism.
As a trout fisher I am very aware of the erosion of access to prime spots in particular. There is not only encroachment by way of development (as around lake shores) but also the denial of access over surrounding land to public waters. The latter is often a result of a “deal” between landowners and tourist guides to effectively privatise Crown riverbeds to all except those willing to pay for access across private land.
What we are seeing is the constant erosion of the public domain where ever somebody sees a way of deriving an income from it, or of giving themselves a privileged position.
Weka and Bill-I read a few weeks ago that a big percentage of the people using the Otago Rail Trail come from Auckland and environs.
Weka-tracks always take a while to “bed-in’ Have a look at the Miller’s Flat-Beaumont track in 3 years time. (I agree when tracks are first built there are adverse effects). My understanding is that parts of this track have had to be put in beside the road because adjacent landowners refused access along the old rail line which they were given for a song.
Bill-go and say “fuck the tourism” to the people of Omakau and Lauder and Middlemarch and see the response you will get. The Maniototo’s economy has been boosted by the huge success of the rail trail.
Ennui-agree entirely.
so I wonder what they’d say if a gubbamint came along and said ….. hey chaps, we’re going to re-establish the railway?
Concrete is indeed ugly (and its manufacture also produces much CO2), but Sneddon et al only seem concerned with their particular patch; which would substantiate Tracey’s claim of NIMBYism on his part, given:
“The track, popular with walkers and cyclists, begins 10km away in central Taupo.”
When I read the article in the ODT earlier this morn, I was mainly struck by this:
“While the donation and the plan for the concrete track were notified in council agendas, letters to houses in the area, council press releases and media coverage, objectors with holiday homes say they had no knowledge of it until construction started in December.”
Surely it was the responsibility of the house owners to ensure that the council had an alternative address, or to have their mail redirected, while they were non-resident if they wanted to be consulted. They must pay rates on the properties after all, which means paperwork going somewhere.
Also Sneddon’s criticism of the track seems rather incoherent:
‘ The objection wasn’t against the path, which “goes nowhere”. “All it does is finish a little further on.” He said it was not properly suitable for cycling. “You can’t ride two bicycles side by side on this path.” ‘
Which, if anything, seems like an argument to have the track widened to better serve both pedestrians and cyclists.
“They must pay rates on the properties after all, which means paperwork going somewhere.”
Yes, generally councils send important letters to the ratepayer’s prefered address, not a letterbox drop. It’s not unusual for councils to do things without notifying people properly.
“Also Sneddon’s criticism of the track seems rather incoherent:
‘ The objection wasn’t against the path, which “goes nowhere”. “All it does is finish a little further on.” He said it was not properly suitable for cycling. “You can’t ride two bicycles side by side on this path.” ‘
Which, if anything, seems like an argument to have the track widened to better serve both pedestrians and cyclists.”
Yes, and I’m sure that they would prefer to not have more people crossing in front of their yard than before, and so they are trying to find ways to mitigate the problem. But that doesn’t make them wrong. Sedden is most likely a complete hypocrit given his day job (although he may not be responsible for his wife’s actions either), but I really don’t understand why people who object to impacts are automatically labelled nimbys and selfish. Not all development is good, and not all development that benefits in some ways is without negatives in other ways.
Weka
“It’s not unusual for councils to do things without notifying people properly.”
They did seem to have made the effort here though via “notifi[cation] in council agendas, letters to houses in the area, council press releases and media coverage”. That the holiday home owners didn’t pick up on any of this seems to speak more of their disengagement from the community than the council’s negligance.
“Not all development is good, and not all development that benefits in some ways is without negatives in other ways.”
I can definitely agree with you on that point, though remain in favour of expanding cycle-ways.
Nice post Tracey.
An even worse situation is where the lessee of a Crown Pastoral Lease has, for no good reason apart from rank selfishness and nimbyism, absolutely refused access across Crown Land beside Lake Roxburgh causing the cycle/walking trail between Alexandra and Roxburgh to be discontinuous, necessitating an expensive and inconvenient boat trip for several kilometres, a situation that puts off many cyclists/walkers.
My understanding is that the tenure review in question is up for review in 2017 (?) at which time the goverment of the day can create a marginal strip outside the pastoral lease land where the cycle/walkway can go as of right. Better hope that Labour/Greens are in by then because National will never go against its farming mates.
It is possible that when Labour/Greens get in later this year they could legislate to push the cyleway through the pastoral lease land as a matter of public interest.
+1
TV3 dignifies a science-denier by calling him a “skeptic”
TV3 News, Monday 6 January 2014, 6:10 p.m.
As even the supremely insensate John “Cabbage” Banks must have noticed, it’s been hot in New Zealand lately.
At the same time, however, it’s been extremely cold in the United States and Europe, and a couple of boats have been caught in the ice in Antarctica. This naturally calls into question the whole idea of global warming, as the intelligent folk at one of our premier blogs have noted….
http://www.whaleoil.co.nz/2014/01/ice-veteran-slams-ship-fools/
With all this heat in the air, the producers at TV3 News evidently thought it was time to assign ace reporter Emma Brannam to come up with a short, sweet item about the heat wave. A “balanced” item, of course, which means that you balance up the bias of scientists by countering it with the well reasoned denials of cantankerous fanatics who insist the world’s scientists are engaged in a massive scam along the lines of the Illuminati conspiracy, the Harold Holt defection to the USSR or the 9/11 “inside job”.
The item began with shots of Aucklanders swimming, rubbing sunscreen on their bodies, and eating ice cream. All this served to establish the theme: it’s hot. Emma Brannam then gave about twenty seconds of air time to the leading climate scientist Professor Jim Salinger.
This was “balanced” by going to a crank, Bryan Leyland, one of the New Zealand advocates for Screaming Lord Monckton, the infamous science-denier who caused a fuss recently when Victoria University refused to treat him as a serious person…..
http://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-17042013/#comment-620413
In the interests of “balance” rather than accuracy, Emma Branham called Leyland a “skeptic”, as if he were some kind of Voltaire, rather than a science-denying fruitcake.
Since “balance” is obviously the watchword for TV3 News, I guess we can expect to see a Holocaust-denier interviewed every time World War II is mentioned, an Elvis-worshipper brought on to assert Elvis is still alive whenever any mention is made of his death, and a member of the Flat Earth Society hauled out to refute the scientific establishment’s socialist propaganda every time an item on space travel is aired.
“..In the interests of “balance” rather than accuracy, Emma Branham called Leyland a “skeptic”, as if he were some kind of Voltaire, rather than a science-denying fruitcake..
(heh..!..)
phillip ure..
“Ace reporter”…..At this juncture I tend to blanch, I have since I left Uni (sometime in the Jurassic) met, socialised with, know (some are even children of my old friends) several TV “jornos”. They have two things in common: they talk nicely for the camera, they look good and presentable on the screen.
This adds up to one thing: they are talking heads. Without being too mean to people I like I cant think of one who has life experience, actual knowledge, etc. That is because in the role it is not needed, it is light weight / follow the script stuff. To assign intelligence to them (and I am not saying they are unintelligent) is to miss the point. So “ace”, wtf does that convey? I gave up listening to mainstream news eons ago for this very reason.
PS If you want to see some good reporters asking difficult questions try the Russian TV reporters (RT).
some ‘good’ news sources most may not know of are..
..alternet..information clearing house..salon..utne reader..mother jones..the nation..boing-boing..
..and for newspapers..the guardian..and the independant..
..and of course (ahem..!..that local scurrillous-rag..that whoar.co.nz..)
..that lot’ll see ya right..eh..?
phillip ure..
Please Morrissey, you must get the story right.
Harold Holt did NOT defect to the USSR.
He swam out to sea and was picked up by a Chinese submarine. In other words he defected to China.
Everybody knows that. Please don’t confuse them by mentioning the USSR.
As an aside there is a memorial to Holt in Melbourne. Sombody with a macabre sense of humour decided that a suitable memorial for someone who had drowned would be a public swimming pool!
Indeed, alwyn, I learned of the Harold Holt Swim Centre (in Malvern) many years ago, while reading Barry Humphries’ fantastically funny book about Australian kitsch.
The Australian establishment’s capacity for irony is almost as keen as the South African establishment’s legendary black humour.
mandela astride a springbok..?
..too soon..?
phillip ure..
Yes… perhaps those who think human pollution is impacting climate for the worse should be called
Nonsense skeptics
Anne
absolutely. I couldnt recall the name.
Listening to the radio this morning I think I got some insight.
1 There was an item on the difficulties that Disney had opening a theme park in Paris and it nearly went broke. Something the management found was that with the sale of food, Europeans are different to the USA who tend tosnack a lot between meals. Europeans don’t they focus on the meal at meal times. And in buying stuff, Europeans tend to buy I think good stuff, infrequently unlike USA frequent purchases.
Maybe the snacking is what has changed the USA shape dramatically wider and heavier of late decades.
2 The hunting of whale oil. Sir Geoffrey Palmer was talking about eating whales and referred to a part of the scientific whaling clauses that say the whales should be used for something of value after the ‘science’. He referred to earlier days where whale oil was important but that died away when they discovered oil in Pennsylvania, I think.
That is what the Japanese are anxious about. I don’t think they have any or not much oil (and also may be one reason for getting uptight about nearby islands being taken over by Chinese, apart from the security angle). There may be oil reserves in the waters there.
Also any thinking country knows that oil supplies are getting tight. The Japanese would not like a scenario where they have to beg for oil from others, and be under their thumb, and have to pay big time for it. Also they know how a country can suffer when there is hostility and war, and they had the two atomic bombs and the fire storm in Tokyo. And their own filthy record to consider which they wouldn’t enjoy in reverse. The Chinese notice that they don’t hesitate to pay homage at the memorials of some of their dastardly military and scientific leaders. The Chinese haven’t forgotten the Manchurian atrocities at the beginning of the 20th century.
So the Japanese would think, better to ensure some independence in oil for the future by keeping on with the whales and want to keep this ‘pipeline’ open which also would provide food for their large population.
I think whale oil was mainly used for lighting, soap, and margarine. It was gas and electricity, plus the killing of too many whales, that cause its use to die out. I doubt if there is enough oil in all the whales in the sea to make a difference to the Japanese energy budget. I also don’t think they’re ever going to manage to feed themselves with whale meat. The whaling they do seems to be one of the last remaining ways that they can express their nationalism.
Murray O
Sir G Palmer mentioned the whale oil at the same time as he mentioned oil finds in the USA so thought that he connected them. Yes the nationalism thing could be strong – you can’t push us around stuff, but they must be looking at the global energy and political power too. Was I right that they don’t have their own oil reserves? I haven’t looked up.
Some whale oil was used for domestic lighting, but it stunk. Kerosene was used as one of the replacements. In the US, this was originally distilled from coal, but the process of distilling it from crude oil was more effective, and I think that started in Pennsylvania around 1850.
As far as I know, Japan has no oil reserves on their own territory. This was one of the causes behind WW2, where they wanted access to South East Asian oil. It’s also a factor in the number of nuclear power plants in Japan.
Surely Key will call and election before Banks is sentenced? See:
http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/politics/9580345/Banks-faces-daunting-new-year
Early election either way.
Anyone know what Banks’ parents were jailed for?
locking him under the stairs for 18 years? That would explain a lot (as would consorting intimately with demons).
From memory, they were bootleggers and provided illegal abortions.
Archibald Banks, John’s father & his mother:
As if a bank-robber wasn’t always a “crook”?
Have to differentiate the shotgun-holders from the managers somehow 🙂
Well, there are those thieves with, and those without, honour…
sheesh karol..!..ever heard of rehabilitation..?
..getting yr act a bit more together..?
..(i speak as an ex-junkie/ex-con..eh..?..’always’ one..eh..?..)
..and as banks’ parents were abortionists..
..shouldn’t they be heroes to many here..?
..hasn’t that penny dropped yet..?
..(just saying..!..)
phillip ure..
See, that’s not how I took Karol’s comment. I thought she was pointing out the redundancy of the word “crook” in the original sentence she quoted:
“…his bank-robber father was a crook…”
I mean, it’s not really needed. It could have just said:
“…his father was a bank-robber…”
YMMV of course!
@ nz femme..
..i re-read it..and nah..!..
..karol is saying once a crook..always a crook..
..if i am incorrect in that reading..
..i will withdraw and apoligise..
..but from here it just looks like a cheap-shot..
..and spilling the sins of the father onto the son..
..and that ain’t right..
..in fact it gives every appearance of being the kind of nz small-town curtain-twitching janet frame skewered/detailed so well..
..eh..?
phillip ure..
Oh, really, phillip. Of course it’s what NZ Femme said. The crook phrase was redundant – maybe just to stress Archie was a crook?
I thought it was a small point – an aside, but also so obvious it didn’t need explaining.
@ karol..so..were you being pedantic/tautology-alerting..?..and not sneering..?
..if not the latter i withdraw and apologise..
..but that’s bye the bye..
..perhaps weka cd explain why she kicked off this witch-hunt on banks..thru the ‘sins’ of his parents..
..and i really would like an answer to the question..
..as banks’ parents were abortionists..
..shouldn’t they be hailed as heroes..by many here..?
..and i include yrslf/weka in that question/category..
..phillip ure..
I can’t speak to Karol’s intent obviously, (I’m just not seeing what you are) but when I responded to Weka’s original question, it was off the cuff facts from memory, with no judgement attached. I don’t hold John Banks accountable for his folks, only himself.
:::Snap::: @ Karol 🙂
I did not get the same impression of karol’s comment, phillip. I thought she was pointing out the redundancy of describing Archie as a bank robber and a crook. I could be sensitive on such issues if I felt like it. I don’t.
Archie Banks was a notorious career criminal and Banks’ mother Kitty was an alcoholic (Mayor Banks does not drink) and they were both jailed while he was attending Avondale College (after failing to get in to Auckland Grammar for being a “drongo”. Banks is a strange mix of boasting and self-deprecation.)
His parents’ crime was procuring abortions; this is all spelled out in an authorised biography written some years ago by Paul Goldsmith who is now on the council.
From this article
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/index.cfm?objectid=10662438
Deuteronomy 24:16 – The fathers shall not be put to death for the children, neither shall the children be put to death for the fathers: every man shall be put to death for his own sin.
So long as Banks gets “put to death” electorally for his multitude of sins.
the drone strike case of US citizen Anwar al-Awlaki and then his US born 16 year old son 2 weeks later seems to contravene this.
Wish I could smile CV (or do one of hose smiley objects). If it was not so tragic, but American “Christian” morality is rather odd as the Archdruid points out http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.co.nz/search?updated-min=2013-01-01T00:00:00-08:00&updated-max=2014-01-01T00:00:00-08:00&max-results=50
Try this
Here are the passages I found in which Jesus tells his followers that they have a duty to take care of children, the poor, and other vulnerable people:
Matthew 18:6, 18:10, 19:21, 23:14, and 25:31-46; Mark 9:36-37, 10:21, and 12:40; and Luke 10:30-37, 11:41, 12:33, 14:12-14, 18:22, and 20:47.
Here are the passages in which Jesus tells his followers to pay their taxes without complaining:
Matthew 5:42, 17:24-27, and 22:19-21; Mark 12:14-17; and Luke 6:30 and 20:21-25.
Here are the passages in which Jesus tells his followers that they aren’t supposed to obsess about other people’s sins, but should leave that to God, and attend to their own moral failings instead:
Matthew 7:1-5 and 9:10-13; Mark 2:15-17; Luke 6:37, 6:41-42, 7:44-48, 15:2, 18:10-14, and 19:7; and John 8:2-11.
And here are the passages in which Jesus tells his followers to blame the poor and vulnerable for their plight, direct benefits toward the already well-to-do at the expense of everyone else, refuse to pay their fair share of taxes, and obsessively denounce and punish the sins of people they don’t like while finding every opportunity to excuse their own sins and those of their friends:
Deliberately left blank until somebody can find some…
chrs 4 that ennui..
i’m gonna lift it wholesale for whoar..
..v.good..
..i have felt for some time that we will never get real progressive-change..
..until we get the churches onside/beside us..
..this is good religious agit-prop to use to help achieve that alliance..
..phillip ure..
+1
Ennui
If you want to do a smile – press the key for colon – then it’s colonsmilecolon and same for these –
😀 😛 💡
😯 😉 😎 🙁
Moving mouth 😆
Ennui I just meant to list the icons but of course copied them with the colons so got the faces not the names – so match the face with the design –
grin razz idea shock wink cool sad
lol.
Agreed, Ennui – that is to you last sentence.
Good quote from Deuteronomy, also. Like you, I changed my ‘pseudonym’ – previously Deuto, short for …. Not so much to do with the bible, rather more to do with cats and ‘Cats’. Know cattiness when I see, hear, read it. Used to be something of an expert myself, but have mellowed with age.
Archie’s main claim to fame was as a fence. Apparently he was an honourable man, his word was his bond and all that stuff. John’s mother doesn’t have such fame in the folklore, which is possibly a reflection of the times.
It wouldn’t surprise me if John Key announces the election date this month, like he did at the start of 2011, to be seen to be ‘principled’ and above petty politics.
Furthermore, this belief that the government would fall if Banks lost his seat is, once again, incorrect. The government has a confidence and supply agreement with the Maori Party so will be able to win any vote of no confidence. I daresay that breaking that agreement would hurt the MP more than it would hurt National. Banks leaving parliament means National would only have trouble passing right-wing legislation, which seems like it wouldn’t be a problem in this case as there would only be a few months left of the term – they can arrange for urgency before then to pass any legislation that would require Banks’ vote.
Finally, calling an election because a minor party MP is removed from parliament really taints National a lot – they want to keep as much distance from Banks as possible, so it’s better to carry on with ‘business as usual’.
Lanth, I was talking more about the ordure that will fly around Banks’ sentencing and it’s association with Key (let’s have a cuppa) dragging down National’s poll ratings.
Well aware the ‘orrible twosome have hitched themselves to National for this term, and so ending the Maori Party.
I can’t find Banks’ actual court dates, but it’s scheduled for 10 days in May.
Are you saying that John Key will shortly announce an election before May? Or that after Banks is convicted but before he’s sentenced, Key will call an election then?
Since the budget is delivered in May, and National definitely want to get in a 6th one, I think we can rule the first possibility out.
I’ve already described why I think the 2nd won’t happen, not the least of which is that by that point it will be ~6 months until an election in November anyway so the Epsom seat can be declared vacant and not filled anyway.
The trial has apparently been set to start on May 19 according to this MSM article
http://news.msn.co.nz/nationalnews/8769177/act-leader-banks-returns-to-court
As Lanthanide said, it is expected to take 10 days. So, unless Key and Co break with convention, the trial will coincide with the lead up to, and aftermath of the 2014 Budget – usually held in the second half of May. Convenient somewhat?
My money is on an early election – possibly as early as early/mid July, or in August/September – announced after the Royal visit or on Budget Day with a short lead-in time only (can be as short as six weeks’ notice).
Key will want to capitalise on the warm fuzzies, photo ops etc from the Royal Visit in early April – and also overshadow both the Dotcom compensation hearing in March, and possible extradition hearing currently scheduled for April, but expected to again be delayed until July, with possible ‘revelations’ unfavourable to/re Key.
I don’t believe he will leave it until November, as he will be hoping to attend the G20 Summit in Brisbane on 15/16 November 2014. NZ is not a member of G20 but Australia is hosting the 2014 G20 meetings and have invited NZ to attend the meetings for the first time.
http://johnkey.co.nz/archives/1770-New-Zealand-to-join-2014-G20-meetings.html
Good point, I hadn’t thought about the G20 summit. Still, October is still a feasible target.
Yes, an October election is possible. In addition to the issue in my earlier comment, my gut feeling is that Key will not use the same strategy as in 2011 – ie announcing the election at the beginning of the year – but will go for the opposite this time around.
IMO he will not want to give Cunliffe the time to establish a following/presence for too long, or give too much forewarning in the hopes that Labour will be behind in developing/announcing policies, getting their electorate candidates sorted etc. The number of Nats who have already announced their retirements etc suggests that National are well ahead in sorting their list.
A mid-winter election could also result in an even lower voter turnout than in 2011 due to weather, which would probably also work to National’s advantage.
But don’t forget that ‘early’ elections don’t reflect well on the incumbent.
Labour and Helen got a lot of flak for going early in 2002 (which prevented me from voting, as I turned 18 in October). The strategists reckon they did better by going early, but we can’t really know for sure.
mmm given the above discussion maybe you (Lanth and Veuto) are right and I’m wrong-election is likely in Sept-Oct. Banks is likely to be lead of to the cells in July, having been booted out of parliament earlier.
IMO this is close enough to the election for Key/National to suffer collateral damage in terms of loss in poll ratings. Labour and Greens cannot say “John Key’s mate John Banks is in chokey” often enough during the campaign.
I am still of the opinion that it will be earlier – eg July – but there is a lot of water to go under the bridge in the next few months, so anything could happen based on the ever-changing situation in 2013.
Moral of story: LABOUR, GREENS, be prepared to go AT ANY TIME! Surprise will be just one of Natzis tactics, alongside Mr Slip Slime Dirty Trix and his enterage of the 10% including a compliant media (playing their last round).
Cunliffe has been well aware of the possibility of an early election from the time he was elected leader. I think that is why we didn’t hear too much from him in the last couple of months of the year. He was busy doing the behind the scenes campaign preparation – putting strategy into place etc. That’s my understanding anyway.
Yep. Got my LEC campaign meeting tomorrow, Anne. Got a superb candidate, a small but perfectly formed team and a will to win. Bring it on!
dec-jan always quiet politically, and difficult for opposition to get coverage. No point doing king-hits when they’ll be quickly enveloped and forgotten by the election.
The hubbub will start up in late feb – I’d expect about 50% of policy announced before campaign starts, with a couple more flagship lab/grn/mana complementary policy announcements (like NZpower and housing). Grn on 12-15% and lab on 36-40% by start of campaign is my hope.
TRP and McFlock
Can’t wait for it to start.
I’m quite enjoying the break, even if there is a bit of bickering going on 🙂
scrappers gon’ scrap
“I think that is why we didn’t hear too much from him in the last couple of months of the year.”
Exactly my thoughts ….. although hopefully he’s not losing sight of the old guard a-wishin an-a-hopin he fucks up, and occasionally completely stuffing things up with media pronouncements and pontifications – after having looked at their gorgeous image in the mirror.
[Looks at Parker, Maid Marion, Billy Bunter from Wainui, and others sideways]
Foot shooting and clinging to romantic notions of how life could have been (if only) are trademarks of a certain clique that only have their egos to cling to (and by GOD they’ll hold out – probably even after I, and a few others piss on their graves.
(I’m sorry your honour, I was drunk at the time after visiting the local supermarket and taking advantage of a loss-leader item, and didn’t know what I was doing!
Awwwe – you poor poor thang – I sentence you to a King Hit – stand down!)
Btw … there’ll be quite a few gerries up on that charge before the sun goes down for the last time (I’ll be the one in the wheelchair)
Have a look at what type of trial it is. Jury or judge.
The difference are that a judge will often reserve their judgement decision, often for several weeks. Whereas a jury will (usually if not hung) deliver a decision at the end of the trial (and the judge will frequently reserve the their sentencing decision).
If you look at the rules on MPs, only a *conviction* of the offense is required (ie based on potential prison term) to cause the effects on the coalition.
Timing details are everything
It’s a judge-only trial.
I agree Key will go early, but I’d be very surprised if he announces the date prior to calling the election, like he did in 2011. Then National outsmarted the opposition, by refusing to debate anything whatsoever until after the Rugby World Cup. That left just 5 weeks. Democracy it wasn’t.
My pick, and the one hesitation is what’s happening rugby wise, is that Key will call the election the day after Will and Kate leave New Zealand. Call me a cynic, not really, but the Woman’s mags will be lined up to print stories, Key will be featured right in the middle of it all, the right wing media will be fawning themselves over Wills and Kate, and all that publicity will too much to let slip. Key’s ratings should be sky high because of their visit.
the other point is that if banks goes the MP might decide to go at any time (I have the ompression that they’re still in the midst of a generational leadership transition). So if Key declares a Nov election in Jan, and loses confidence in June, he looks weak.
But if he “spontaneously” calls a snap election after a royal visit, he looks like the same fuckwit that’s worked for him for years.
“So if Key declares a Nov election in Jan, and loses confidence in June, he looks weak.”
Does he? Or do the Maori Party look petty for bringing an already-scheduled election forwards for purely political reasons, breaking their promises in the process.
That has to be countered with the ‘mana’ the MP might gain from bringing down a right-wing government. I suspect there’s probably more mana in keeping your promises than breaking them, though, especially if the resultant election sees National win again – the MP would be unlikely to get another deal from Key.
The Maori party can choose any pretext for knocking out the govt. If the pretext holds up to the electorate, then it’s not a petty reason and key looks bad for being incapable of holdng a coalition together. If the pretext looks petty, then Key can’t even hold a coalition of children. The Prime Minister cannot look like a victim of a smaller party’s whims.
That’s why I think Key would be stupid to announce a november election this far out.
I suspect a lolly scramble budget following a royal visit and using the pretext of Banks’ trial (regardless of outcome) would be the most opportune time for the nats to announce/hold the election.
4th quarter election is running at 80c on iPredict, so if you’re right about your 3rd quarter prediction you could make a good return on it.
Also I don’t think the MP will turn on him, not this close to an election, and take the risk of not getting back into government if National were to win.
Unless there were some extreme circumstances, like Key retiring as leader & PM and the MP used that as an excuse, or National just had terrible polling (say around 39-40%) so it became clear that Labour would win the election, the MP could then claim they were doing the public’s will. But otherwise I just don’t see it happening.
I’m not discounting a 4Q election, I’m just doubtful that key will be announcing the election well in advance like he did last time – the possibility of a steep nat plumment after the early year’s good-news events would be too great, and that would make their current and future partners shaky.
The Maori Party may not even need to choose a pretext. They have not supported every piece of legislation put up by National – eg asset sales – where the Dunne/Banks votes have been vital.
Another factor is the absentee rules in respect of voting. As I commented on a number of times in 2013, the MP only registered two votes, not three, on many occasions due to absences from Parliament due to these rules. IIRC, it would only take all three of the MP members to be absent without prior approval of the Speaker for their votes to drop to one or nil (I cannot recall the rules exactly, and don’t have time now to check) – thereby ‘inadvertently’ allowing a crucial (to National) vote to fail, if the Epsom seat was also vacant.
Labour’s numbers in the House are now back up to full strength after being down for various periods in 2013 due to Parekura Horomia’s death and Dalziel’s departure; so National will need all their coalition numbers in 2014.
These are also reasons why I believe that Key will call an early election, in addition to those in my two earlier comments above in this thread,
“The Maori Party may not even need to choose a pretext. They have not supported every piece of legislation put up by National – eg asset sales – where the Dunne/Banks votes have been vital.”
But that’s the entire point of their supply and confidence agreement. They guarantee their vote on matters on supply and confidence only. So far they’ve kept their word and there’s no reason to break it.
Agreed, Lanthanide, re supply and confidence agreement; and that they have kept their word on that. But also often with only two votes, not three due to the parliamentary absence rules. (The particular ‘quirk’ in the rules only seems to affect the MP at present).
But Turia and Sharples are often absent from the House, and it would not surprise me if this increases with their impending retirements and they forget to get the required approval to allow them to still register the one vote they can get when they are both absent. Time will tell.
Thank you Lanthanide, veutoviper, bearded git, Will@Welly, Tim and McFlock. I really enjoyed that discussion about election timing possibilities. Something I had been wondering about given the influence of scheduled events around Dotcom and Banks.
Wish the Windsors’ weren’t popping in with the new bubba though. It’s an unwelcome candyfloss coated distraction in what could otherwise be a glee fest of come uppances for the high tard of Nu Zuland.
+1 McFlock @ 3:41
Bear in mind also Dotcom’s extradition hearing. The last I heard, the FBI were looking to have it delayed until October 2014 on the pretext they weren’t going to be ready sooner. Now that would fit in nicely with an election around August wouldn’t it. Anything negative that comes out about Key – and there clearly is something – isn’t going to matter.
Hi Anne. I am interested in your comments re the FBI seeking to have the extradition hearing delayed until Oct. Have you any links etc for this information? I obviously must have missed this, despite following the case closely.
Would not surprise me, but I also think the separate but related ongoing legal issues /hearings re the release of seized records back to Dotcom to allow him and the others to prepare their defence will also affect matters and timing of the extradition hearing.
Thanks also for you unnumbered comment re Cunliffe being well prepared for an early election. Did not doubt that he would be doing so, but as you are closer to the inner workings of Labour, that is reassuring. I also understand that electoral candidates will be finalised by the end of Feb, which is also good.
I think it was brought up by someone (an American I think) during an interview on Radio NZ in December. Trying to trace it but no luck so far. The FBI are just requesting a further delay at this point… so it will be some time in Feb/March before it will actually be heard and a decision made. It’s getting suspicious in my view – these FBI initiated delays.
There are a number of possibilities. One set revolves around the Federal case having suffered a major (or fatal) set back of some kind. Whether it is legal advice received which indicates charges against Dotcom would fail (perhaps for reasons of technicality), an inability to find or access incriminating data they had made assumptions about, or some other factor in a similar vein. I can hope against hope, but sadly seriously doubt, that lack of cooperation from NZ authorities plays a role somewhere.
Which leads to a related second set of possibilities. Letting Dotcom off scot free is no doubt politically unpalatable to some parties on both sides of the Pacific. So the delay may be related to special law which is to be passed specifically targeting Dotcom (such special law being a favourite of totalitarian regimes still interested in maintaining sack cloth like rags of legitimacy), waiting to see if his new services eg MEGA somehow incriminate him, or perhaps simply stalling the whole process in order to not make it obvious to one and all that the whole thing has been a contrived bloody cockup from the get-go.
That’s my pick.
Weather skeptics reasoning the weather goes up and down like that waving his finger up and down wow is that the comefy section of the news.
I won’t be commenting on this.
I’m merely providing the link because I found it a thought provoking and insightful and think that some people might appreciate it being signposted.
Link fixed.
Very good Bill, lots of layers in that. It’s a shame if you don’t comment as I think your perspectives would be helpful (given your relative semi-neutrality).
I like this bit from the link Nuclear Unicorn – It’s a thoughtful piece and heartfelt.
So much online social justice activism has become hyper-vigilant against sin, great or small, past or present.
Hi Bill,
I read the link. I think it’s a pity that you don’t want to comment because beyond all the anger (note – not rage) I also wanted to understand. Maybe that’s one kind of ‘walking and chewing gum’ that just can’t be done, and I think there are tight limits to what can be achieved in a forum like this anyway.
I love this song – it has always felt like it was written for the family I grew up in.
Like Soldiers Do – Billy Bragg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IpIbPh44pH4
Blue eyes fighting the gray eyes
Fighting the tears
Armed to the teeth for a war of words
Reachin’ all the years
I advanced across a poppy field
I saw the gleam as you raised your shield
And love screamed down
With the sun behind its back
Our fathers were all soldiers
Shall we be soldiers too?
Fighting and falling like soldiers do
Nothing is clear in this tactical
Unclear war
I can’t be bothered to find out
What we are fighting for
No one can win this war of the senses
I see no reason to drop my defenses
So stand fast my emotions
Rally ’round my shaking heart
Our fathers were all soldiers
Shall we be soldiers too?
Fighting and falling like soldiers do
Blue eyes fighting the gray eyes
Fighting the tears
Armed to the teeth for a war of words
Reachin’ all the years
I advanced across a poppy field
I saw the gleam as you raised your shield
And love screamed down
With the sun behind its back
I knew once again I was under attack
So stand fast my emotions
Rally ’round my shaking heart
Our fathers were all soldiers
Shall we be soldiers too?
Fighting and falling like soldiers
Fighting and falling like soldiers
Fighting and falling like soldiers do
Appreciate the link, Bill.
Helps to put some things into perspective.
The Harper assault on science continues.
http://thetyee.ca/News/2013/12/30/Harper-Library-Closures/
http://thetyee.ca/News/2013/12/09/Dismantling-Fishery-Library/
http://www.canada.com/Harper+government+cutting+more+than+million+related+protection+water/9328179/story.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/22/opinion/sunday/silencing-scientists.html?
http://scienceblogs.com/confessions/2013/10/17/reading-diary-the-war-on-science-muzzled-scientists-and-wilful-blindness-in-stephen-harpers-canada-by-chris-turner/
Hey Colin Craig
http://polentical.files.wordpress.com/2012/08/mitch-and-cam-wanna-get-married.jpg?w=630&h=354
” GOP critics have said the Fed has inflated stock and real estate prices by pumping money into the markets, creating investment bubbles that could burst and wound the economy anew.”
We didnt have qe, as advocated by the green party, but we have an inflated auckland property market.
put money in. Pull money out. Both equal inflated house prices…
weka
I say nimbys for a couple of reasons…
prof people with access to media
sneddon a lawyer and one other named. Lawyers are very good at wanting to stop something for self interest and the ability to make it seem altruistic.
my brother is in a similar socio econmoic bracket to these folks and he is very protective of his part time piece of paradise… despises the building going on in what used to be paddocks by his beach front and the noise of people it brings.
lastly I wanted to provoke a discussion. Thanks to your queries and others responses I learned a smidge more but remain convinced the white upper class wants separation from the great unwashed
Thinking of their attitude as nimbyism sits comfortably with my prejudices about the rich and their rural retreats. Once their particular mansion is finished and the road is sealed, they generally want all development to stop. I say why wait that long? If they don’t like what happens on public land, they shouldn’t have built there in the first place.
There has been a similar problem over here, on the Gold Coast. Some people with houses near the beach are annoyed about a walking track that passes in front of their sections. The local right wing politicians want to privatise the land and sell it to them for a song, so they won’t have to see the great unwashed crossing their lines of sight.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11182520
More brilliance from the NZ Herald. Reckons that Onion growers plan to place forward cover for sales at a “higher” cross rate rather than take the predicted lower spot rate in march…just weird. They are exporters not importers, locking in the higher rate with forward cover will cost them money.
(this is your life..)
“..You must not paint your house a wrong color – collect rain water – or hand out sandwiches to the homeless –
– but a uniformed pervert is free to diddle your pudenda before you board that jet plane – ma’am.
Just be glad you ain’t on that no-fly list.
we must donate half of our shriveling paychecks to the health extortionist company.
An army of goons are also overhearing our phone conversations – and reading our emails –
– and the top thug of all can even have any of us snagged – medievally tortured – or shot –
– without charge – and in secret –
– and if we rebel – we’re only doing it in the prescribed manners –
– by abusing or mutilating ourselves – lashing out at other hapless sinkers –
– or best yet – waving cute signs for an hour or two.
Meanwhile – those who have herded us all into this quicksand – are glorified and worshipped.
Too often – our hatred of suffering is transformed into a contempt for sufferers –
– and – as programmed – we marvel at the undeservingly or criminally powerful.
Over and over again – we vote for our own doom –
– and the more serious our predicament –
– the more trivial the news that’s jammed down our throats…”
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article37314.htm
phillip ure…
+1
We’re on the way here too phillip.
Imagine if you will, two international students (conned by one of those tertiary institutions – since gone under – promising the world but delivering SFA through false advertising)
Imagine their folks raise the tens of thousands necessary to get their kids to the land of milk and honey
Then imagine after they complete their ‘degrees’ with flying colours, they find work (minimum wage of course and after paying various consultant and government dept fees).
Imagine they get bashed up, their documentation and only means of communication stolen by a few who’ve been let in by the local alcohol pumping station, and who as a result have gone feral.
Imagine getting dawn raided (of course we don’t do that anymore, OH NO) by ‘officials’ looking for ‘illegals’ – luckily photocopies of passports were held elsewhere.
Then imagine the costs of replacing doccumentation AND the time taken to do so (travel, time of work to do so, fees – such as over $100 for a replacement sticker ffs!). Time taken off btw posing a threat to their continued employment.
….. all up …. well over 2 grand including GST, plus racist jibes from gubbamint officials in various agencies.
What a nasty, petty, punitive, fascist little state we’ve become!
Kind of Rough Justice if you ask me! I’ll be checking out the antidote tomorrow at the Pines, Wellington
…. oh, and btw
there are local bodies right here in little ole NuZuln who are for all practical purposes, enforcing (or at least attempting to) those same limitations on rain water collection.
…. all the while not-so-much-concerned with collecting the alternative ( of shit-laden H2O – o…o…oh) ‘water’ from a stream – somewhat downstream from those lugzurrrryis images of the truly green green 100% (only slightly tainted with cow ahit – BUT …. apparently better than rain water).
Fuk ’em all Phill. Ignore it – best policy, but be prepared to shuv it up them if ever they have the balls to contest
The biggest difference I can see from the original dawn raids is that the current ones are televised and turned into entertainment. NZ On Air pays to make crude propaganda for racist immigration policies so that NAct voting morons can sit on their fat arses thinking about how that bunch of Asians won’t be stealing their jobs. It’s not hard to see how fascism would be popular.
(heh..!..(that’s all i’m saying..!)..heh..!..)
http://boingboing.net/2014/01/06/passive-aggressive-notes-bes.html
“..The annual best-of collections from Passive Aggressive Notes are always a great read –
– and this year is no exception..”
phillip ure..
India, Sir Lanka, Sub-Sahara, Arab nations all sign an agreement, to dna
all state public servents. Charities, involved in sex and slavery crimes
likewise collect familiar matches with the missing, enslaved and raped
(and also fetuses).
Cross matching is automated for anonymity, but when matches are found
between say military officers and raped Tamils fetuses. Or sex slaves
in a NY, London, Dubai brothel is matched with their African sub-saharan
families enslaved daughter.
Children in the future worried about their heritage could
also match their own dna against these databases and find their parents
aren’t theirs but paid to buy them, or worse, kept the offspring from
their real enslaved mothers.
Now imagine the immediate threat, when any public servant, any slave
trader, any brothel owner, worried that they may in future be criminally
charged. It would have immediate effect to chill rapes in India
and Sri Lakia, to sex slavery in major global cities. Its would
show those countries also who are supporting global slavery,
the sex trade and rapists, that need servants of the state to ply their
criminal trades.
So is there a dna database without borders? Such a powerful tool.
I dedicate this post to Caroline Cox, her emotional voyeurism, her
spiritual conceit, and her unwillingness to take the wrongs to the wrong
doers, in a NR podcast 15 dec.
A powerful tool indeed. Consider also the cross database access that the intelligence services have. Their ability to match information that was never intended to be matched or alter/add/subtract records in various ways is, I believe, unparalleled, and the implications for civil life as yet, barely thought through.
I suppose you’ll tell me that if I don’t keep sub-Saharan sex slaves, I have nothing to fear? No thanks.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11182574
Good
your inverted perspective strikes again
On the one hand I’m thinking “yay, jobs for the beleagured Dunedin economy”, on the other hand I’m thinking “this is not going to help climate change”. On a third mutated hand I’m slightly worried the fracking might trigger an earthquake and tsunami, obliterating my beloved home town.
I’m worried about the cruise ship season if the pipe breaks.
“yay, jobs for the beleagured Dunedin economy”
That’s a technical way of saying: “Yay, the shareholders of Shell, OMV and Mitsui are going to get a lot of money, and the New Zealand taxpayer will clear up the mess.”
+1
On the one hand I’m thinking “yay, jobs for the beleagured Dunedin economy”, on the other hand I’m thinking “this is not going to help climate change”. On a third mutated hand I’m slightly worried the fracking might trigger an earthquake and tsunami, obliterating my beloved home town.
Not to worry, think of the helicopter tourism when the next lot of icebergs float past. There’s always the disaster tourism if things go badly. Plenty of jobs there.
Pete
What jobs for Dunedites? The exploratory ship and workers will all be from overseas. There may be a bit of a boost for the town’s; hotels, bars, and brothels if any of them ever come ashore, but that’s about all I can think of.
Also, this seems more of a conventional drilling operation (albeit in very deep water), rather than one involving fracking. I have to assume that you’ve been eating produce from Taranaki’s “landfarms” which would explain that “third mutated hand”.
Yellen confirmed.
http://business.time.com/2014/01/06/janet-yellen-fed-chair/
http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/how-janet-yellen-s-agenda-could-transform-washington-20140106
That cyclist killed at the Parnell Rise incident. It’s depressing. My condolences to all concerned.
I have long felt there was always an accident waiting to happen at that intersection. However, I had thought it would be a pedestrian that would be hit. Motorists continue to turn at the lights after the lights turn red. Lorries/trucks, especially long ones, are the worst for pedestrians as the trucks take so long to clear the intersection, often after the pedestrian green light has turned red.
Haven’t been there for a while, so maybe they have improved the intersection recently. And maybe that truck driver wasn’t rushing to take the turn rather than wait for the next green light.
But, for a truck and cyclist to meet and impact – something wrong with the road provisions.
In dunedin, the scenario that seemed to really take a toll on cyclists was when drivers of parked cars opened doors into cycle lanes without looking, cyclist couldn’t stop in time and goes under truck. Last one I read about, the truck driver didn’t even know the cyclist had gone under his wheels – he’d purposely left good distance between the two and thought he’d passed without incident. Cops managed to tell him on the outskirts of town.
Since then they’ve roughly doubled the width of the cycle lanes – hopefully that will really cut things down (although I’ve noticed more pricks driving with their wheels in the cycle lane – although it seems to be about the same numbers as cyclists who cruise through red lights).
Well, we can all make bad moves on occasions, but I think that cyclists and trucks shouldn’t be anywhere near in the same traffic stream.
yeah, dunedin’s fecking abysmal like that – no hgv bypass, with the main highway going straight through the middle of town, right next to the regional tertiary care hospital and going through the university campus. Throw in a moronic and user-expensive public transport system, and frankly I’m surprised we don’t get more traffic fatalities.
Stop someone voting National – Legend
Great to hear it thanks TA.
There is so much good craic going on on Open Mike today, barely time to reflect and no time to respond except to say that the music will always amplify the voices of the collective thought and experience of those who are itching for change. Big ups too to just saying for the classic Billy Bragg.
About that big freeze.
Snow and ice are disappearing from the Arctic region at unprecedented rates, leaving behind relatively warmer open water, which is much less reflective to incoming sunlight than ice. That, among other factors, is causing the northern polar region of our planet to warm at a faster rate than the rest of the northern hemisphere. (And, just to state the obvious, global warming describes a global trend toward warmer temperatures, which doesn’t preclude occasional cold-weather extremes.)
Since the difference in temperature between the Arctic and the mid-latitudes helps drive the jet stream (which, in turn, drives most US weather patterns), if that temperature difference decreases, it stands to reason that the jet stream’s winds will slow down. Why does this matter?
Well, atmospheric theory predicts that a slower jet stream will produce wavier and more sluggish weather patterns, in turn leading to more frequent extreme weather. And, turns out, that’s exactly what we’ve been seeing in recent years. Superstorm Sandy’s uncharacteristic left hook into the New Jersey coast in 2012 was one such example of an extremely anomalous jet stream blocking pattern.
When these exceptionally wavy jet stream patterns occur mid-winter, it’s a recipe for cold air to get sucked southwards. This week, that’s happening in spectacular fashion.
http://qz.com/163636/how-global-warming-can-make-cold-snaps-even-worse/
Interestingly the Arctic ice is very near its all-time low for this time of year.
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm
And the process was predicted in 2004.
By disturbing a massive ocean current, melting Arctic sea ice might trigger colder weather in Europe and North America.
That’s the paradoxical scenario gaining credibility among many climate scientists. The thawing of sea ice covering the Arctic could disturb or even halt large currents in the Atlantic Ocean. Without the vast heat that these ocean currents deliver—comparable to the power generation of a million nuclear power plants—Europe’s average temperature would likely drop 5 to 10°C (9 to 18°F), and parts of eastern North America would be chilled somewhat less.
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2004/05mar_arctic/
Xox
As the climate changes, established weather patterns will change, causing freaky weather to happen. The IPCC has detailed modelling showing a range of forecasts. A huge amount of of information.