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Open mike 09/05/2022

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, May 9th, 2022 - 48 comments
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For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose.

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48 comments on “Open mike 09/05/2022 ”

  1. Temp ORary 1

    Nice to have some longitudinal (rather than cross-sectional) research for a change. Though certainly some caveats regarding (the decent, but could be bigger) sample population size of 317, and USAn population demographics generalizability. It will be interesting to see the next data tranche in another lustrum.

    Quotes are from the preprint pdf, which is linked to here (and includes a short summary). Stray numbers are from reference citations, but hopefully I got all of those deleted for readability:


    Increasing numbers of children are socially transitioning to live in line with their gender identity, rather than the gender assumed by their sex at birth—a process that typically involves changing a child’s pronouns, first name, hairstyle, and clothing. Some concerns about childhood social transitions have been raised, including that these children may not continue to identify as transgender, rather they might “retransition” (also called a “detransition” or “desistence”), which some suggest could be distressing for the youth. Research has suggested that ages 10-13 years may be particularly key times for retransition and that identity may be more stable after this period for youth who show early gender nonconformity.

    Other clinicians argue that early social transitions can be beneficial for some gender-diverse youth. Some clinicians and scholars who support early childhood social transitions encourage families to remain open to later retransitions, which are seen by some as part of a youth’s exploration of their gender.

    Unfortunately, very little data about retransitions exist in the scientific literature…

    Five years after an initial binary social transition, 7% of youth had retransitioned at least once. Most youth (94%) were living as binary transgender youth at the time of data analysis, including 1.3% who retransitoned initially to cisgender or nonbinary and then retransitioned back to binary trans identities. A small number of youth were living as cisgender youth (2.5%) or nonbinary youth (3.5%). We observed comparable rates when examining all participants who began the study (n=317), those who continue to be in regular contact with the research team (n=291), those who had gone at least 5 years since initial social transition (n=200), and those who started the study before beginning puberty blockers (n=280). We found no differences as a function of participant sex at birth. We observed slightly higher rates of retransition, and particularly later cisgender identity, amongst youth who initially socially transitioned before age 6. However, even in these youth, retransition rates were very low.

    TLDR: For those who socially transition before puberty, detransition to gender assigned at birth is rare – rarer than retransition to NonBinary. Even rarer for those who transition after puberty (vide references in pdf).

    • Molly 1.1

      This data confirms previous clinical data that social transitioning is not a neutral act.

      Children who are confirmed in their change of gender identity, given new name, clothes, accommodations at home and at school in regards to their gender identity – are obviously less likely to continue to explore their own feelings and change their minds. Especially after receiving accolades and accommodations by trusted adults.

      If this relates to a recently published article in the NY Times, this study followed children from the age of average 6.5yrs at beginning of social transition, and reviewed them at 11.5 yrs.

      At the end of the study, they are only just beginning puberty. They often are still unaware of sexual development, function and sensation and the impact of what transition means. This is a time when to continue along their trajectory they will not doubt look at blocking puberty and requesting medical assistance for that.

      Social transition at the beginning age around 6.5yrs is easy. Pre-pubertal children are similar in size and presentation (with or without hair/clothing stereotypes). Children who have been accommodated for five years with the trusted adults in their lives telling them they are the opposite sex, will no doubt be distressed by the advent of puberty as their body betrays that lie. They will then demand puberty blockers etc…

      That is why reviews of literature have concluded social transitioning in young children to be harmful. Because it concretises what might be a transient identity. It also suspends children in a lie, for a period of years, which is unable to be maintained when puberty hits, and their body starts to change.

      Other clinicial data has shown that 80-85% of gender dysphoric children desist with a watch and wait approach, combined with exploratory therapy that investigates all aspects of a child's life. Most who desist will in early adulthood recognise that their sexual-orientation is not heterosexual, and their discomfort with their bodies was – in part – related to that growing awareness.

      There's a review of the article here, with some further links.


      Given that several countries have reviewed the available clinical data, and found that affirmation only transition is harmful for minors (including social transition), why are we not asking for a review here in NZ.

      Iatrogenic harm is not a irregular occurrence. It often happens when medical data for protocols is not robust.

      I don't see anything to celebrate when we concretise children into a medical pathway that may medicalise them for life. Or requires everyone they have contact with to accommodate them. Especially when the treatment may impact on their ability to have full sexual function, sensation and fertility.

      "TLDR: For those who socially transition before puberty, detransition to gender assigned at birth is rare – rarer than retransition to NonBinary. Even rarer for those who transition after puberty (vide references in pdf)."

      This is not the evidence you interpret this as. This reinforces the long-held view that social transition for children is a harmful act in terms of long-term outcomes.

      NB. Non-binary is a nonsense.

      • Anker 1.1.1

        Thanks Molly, was just about to respond to this research.

        As usual you covered it perfectly.

        Confounding factors that stood out to me was these kids parents "approved" of their transition. Mean age of 8.1. Some had began transitiong at 6 years old. To me it appears that these kids were gender non conforming and their high income earning parents affirmed their gender identity, unlike in the 60s and 70s when gender non conforming kids were left to be tom boys, but everyone one knew they were female. it wasn't a problem.

        What was the process by which these kids transitioned? Did their parents tell them because they were gender non conforming they must be the opposite sex.

        Just as a related aside can anyone really take the term "sex assigned at birth" seriously? Sex can be determind in the womb pretty early on and that doesn't change.

      • Temp ORary 1.1.2

        This relates to the Olson et al (2022) preprint paper for the American Academy of Pediatrics official journal (rather directly, but that's scientists for you) called Pediatrics entitled: Gender Identity 5 Years After Social Transition. I have no idea if the NY Times republished it (I don't maintain an account there), but it seems unlikely given its length and journalistic style. The SEGM piece refers to this Pediatrics research article in any case, but seems to be mostly quibbling rather than presenting contrary evidence (as is the norm in scientific discourse).

        So I decided to see who this Society for Evidence Based Gender Medicine actually were behind the facade. As you were apparently unaware that; Ani O'Brien was anything to do with SUFW, nor even that; the Q in LGBTQ+ stood for Queer, until recently, this may be news to you as well; Molly.

        It is not too surprising that the SEGM would be trying to discredit an AAP article as:

        their participation in the field of transgender related medicine is so contentious that in early August they were denied a spot at the annual conference for the American Academy of Pediatrics…

        SEGM's standards for what constitutes a legitimate evidence base, versus what constitutes invalidation of research findings depend on whether the evidence supports banning transition healthcare. On the one hand, Lisa Littman's widely discredited research is advanced as proof of a phenomenon happening (against the revised conclusions) whereas on the other hand, a single downgraded study elsewhere is used to make sweeping and generalised attacks discrediting trans surgical interventions as a whole. This is not an evidence based approach…

        SEGM appear to be among a growing bubble of fringe groups exploiting widespread ignorance about mainstream scientific consensus on gender medicine to push an agenda driven approach to understanding scientific evidence.


        But perhaps you can provide links to the Clinical Data from more reputable sources that supports your statement that: "Other clinicial {sic} data has shown that 80-85% of gender dysphoric children desist with a watch and wait approach, combined with exploratory therapy that investigates all aspects of a child's life"?

        N.B. Your inability to understand NonBinary gender identities says more about your ability to understand, than it does about the reality of said identities.

        • Molly

          Will write a post to address this, Temp Orary, if TS doesn't mind.

          (And put in links etc there). There's a lot of information for those looking into it to unpick. I'll try and get something done in the next few days.

          I will just mention that your comment (as so many comments on this topic) is two thirds trying to discredit the source – even while posting a non-neutral source of your own. Kudos on the sheer affrontery. I've already read the critique of SEGM from transsafety. I believe, it too, to be a nonsense.

          For the new to the game, SEGM contains many links to original sources, but some of the contributors don't meet the desired compliance requirements of gender ideology activists.

          Anyway, will get on with my day, and work on a post.

          • Molly

            NB in regards to:" As you were apparently unaware that; Ani O'Brien was anything to do with SUFW,"…

            That's a misrepresentation.

            What I said was:
            "You may wish to associate me with Judith Collins previous press secretary, whoever that is. "

            I do know who Ani O'Brien is. I do know she is associated with SUFW.

            I didn't know she was Judith Collins previous press secretary.

            I do believe that misrepresentation is a charitable interpretation of what you are doing here.

            For clarity, suggest next time you just use the name Ani O'Brien.

            "the Q in LGBTQ+ stood for Queer, until recently, this may be news to you as well; Molly"

            No. I understood what the Q stood for as a word. I was asking for the definition of that word, as you saw it.

            My question was:

            "What does Queer mean that isn't covered by L, G and B?

            Why do you think a support movement for L, G and B would add to its acronym a term that has such negative connotations historically for them to represent a group that they are not part of?

            Still no definition of Queer BTW."

            I also had follow up questions re: your definitions of +, and intersex.

            So far, nothing forthcoming.

  2. Jester 2

    Another ram raid this time in Panmure so that's at least two over the weekend.

    Lets hope the extra money is used to make a difference and actually stop these.

    Another Auckland ram raid: Panmure store damaged in burglary overnight – NZ Herald

    • mac1 2.1

      Since these recent ram raids began, what actually has been the arrest rate for the perpetrators?

      I found this article from April 13!


      • Ed1 2.1.1

        Where has personal responsibility gone? From the media, we see videos of these raids, and often hear that they are youth who should not have been driving, but look at how exciting it appears to a young gamer . . . Who made the vehicles available, or did not secure the keys? Who was the idiot that displays expensive and readily saleable goods behind only a sheet of glass overnight? Why have we not heard stories of insurance premiums going up massively for the costs of the raids? I feel sorry for the small business owner with a shopfront next to the footpath , but can the front of the building not have a steel frame to a doorway that is too narrow for a vehicle, and steel reinforcing for the rest of the vulnerable external wall? It seems all National have are bashing the government and police – no solutions except tax cuts – how will that help?

        • Craig H

          I can't say I'm a big fan of blaming someone for being a victim of a crime as it can go down some highly unpleasant pathways. I'm sure insurance companies will find ways to push people in those directions if they haven't already, but it's a fine line between that and victim-blaming.

        • Belladonna

          Two of the ram raids in our local shopping centre, targeted a liquor store (for the obvious reason) and a dairy (cigarettes).

          In both cases, it's not really possible for the stock to be any more secured than it already is (it's already in locked cabinets – but people who are prepared to use a car as an entry weapon, aren't going to be deterred by locks)

          Shop owners would *love* to be able to put bollards on the footpath outside – but Council won't approve it (infringes on the footpath and impedes pedestrian access (apparently).

          In both cases – the actual damage done to the shops and the wanton destruction of stock (apart from what was actually stolen) was significantly greater than the value of the items stolen.

          Have to say, it sounds to me like adrenaline rush, rather than robbery, is the primary motive.

          And the cars are almost always stolen.

          There are apparently zero consequences for these under-age criminals-in-training. So, why wouldn't they?

          Personal responsibility? How about sheeting it home to the parents/caregivers rather than victim-blaming the small shopkeepers?

  3. Ad 3

    Chloe Swarbrick rolls out the kind of writing that Jacinda Ardern would have done in her first year as PM.

    Chlöe Swarbrick: Climate change has arrived while politicians argue the status quo – NZ Herald

  4. Janice 4

    I have always cringed when I have heard ministers of health and education speak of 'kids'. Kids are baby goats, show some respect for children. Now we have a Minister of Police who speaks of 'cops' instead of police officers and then talks about throwing people into clink. Now I have just heard Suzie Ferguson start an interview about the number of cops. It is contagious. Suzie should know better.

    • Ad 4.1

      Also we simply must teach our young men to properly tip hats to ladies, bring back Listen With Mother, and teach the help to properly cinch our corsets.

    • weston 4.2

      Well janice like it or not that kind of language is what pretty much all of us use every day with lots of obscenities thrown in as well ! I wouldnt worry about suzie ferguson's ditze vacuousness either since in the fare dished up for our digestion every morn by rnz's dolop of infotainment she's just par for the course !!

      I often think how nice it'd be to sack the lot of them .Let all the overpaid posers go get jobs at cnn or bbc which they love so much and give nz back a serious news service again sans all the hoopla fanfare musac drumbeats and general breathless bullshit !

      We can but dream alas

      • Adrian 4.2.1

        Couldn't agree more Weston but we must insist on Home Counties Accents as well as ties to be worn by wireless announcers. Standards man, standards!

      • left for dead 4.2.2

        Here here,give that man a hand clap.yes

    • theotherpat 4.3

      thank you for confirming just how fecked up we are….no wonder its all such a mess.

  5. Hunter Thompson II 5

    NZ Herald, 7 May 2022, p C1: "It's raining money for water consultants" (report states that the government has spent $21 million on consultants and contractors to sell the idea of the Three Waters reforms to the public).

    Surely officials and the relevant minister should be capable of explaining the proposals without blowing vast sums of taxpayer dollars on expensive promotions?

    The merit (or otherwise) of the programme should also be clear.

    Years ago National PM Keith Holyoake (according to Rob Muldoon) said that any minister who could not score off a question in the House was not up to the job. It seems that these days no minister can function without the support of an army of PR spin doctors.

    Nice work if you can get it.

  6. Cricklewood 6

    The falling school attendance is likely going to be a social disaster down the track if we cant turn it around and fast… could well see a big decline in literacy and numeracy etc.


    • DB Brown 6.1

      The declines will run far deeper than literacy etc. It will impact all of our systems negatively. Education, health, justice, social services…

      I've met several illiterate men in jail. It's a massive handicap. And the justice dept was not educating (rehabilitating) them, though some were still young and reasonably intelligent.

      We'll find plenty of these currently truant kids in jails, rehabs and outside parliament flinging shit in the not so distant future. And they'd be right to fling shit if there's not someone at least giving a damn and trying to herd them back into a classroom.

    • Belladonna 6.2

      One of the comments I heard from the incomparable Celia Lashlie at an event about raising boys – was that one of the most important actions to keep them on the rails was to keep them in school. It was great if they were learning there. But even if they weren't actually being physically present in school was a protection in itself.
      Kids wagging are kids on the streets and at high risk of getting into worse company.

  7. Ad 7

    If our unemployment is so low, trading conditions so good, productivity and wages increasing, and billions more coming for all manner of projects, what would it take to persuade the business community that Labour are actually doing a good job?

    • Blazer 7.1

      Scomo is basically trying that narrative in the Aussie …election.

    • Stuart Munro 7.2

      Seems to require something akin to a stroke.

      Falling down/seeing a bright light/ hearing the voice of God.

      Euripides apparently described it so well that it was adopted at the highest level.

    • AB 7.3

      …what would it take to persuade the business community that Labour are actually doing a good job?

      Nothing will ever persuade them. They will never forgive that our excellent pandemic response was a result of telling the business community to be quiet and do as they were told for a brief period. They fear that sort of contagion spreading – and history is being rewritten as we speak by their media arm (NZME, NZ Herald) to create the impression that the pandemic response was rubbish.

      • Ad 7.3.1

        In some respects the same could be said of the rest generally dissatisfied with Labour:

        “The more things improve, the louder become the exclamations about their badness.”

    • Craig H 7.4

      Nothing, the Clark government had the same problem despite surpluses, high growth and low unemployment during their term. Business confidence in the futures of their own businesses is high, but confidence in the overall economic direction is low, leaving survey outcomes that are inconsistent (or even contradictory) with each other.

    • roblogic 7.5

      The Herald and other second rate media outlets have declared war on this government. The world class pandemic response was not good enough for them. The new industry bargaining “fair pay agreements” bill is making them shit themselves. The prospect of collapsing demand for million dollar mortgages & lack of a ready supply of cashed up migrants makes them cry into their Weetbix. The recent revelations about slavery and disgusting exploitation of “essential workers” rife throughout the economy, and the supposed “labour shortages” are making them piss and moan.

      National and their mates hate workers, want them to have low wages and pay all the tax, while the fat cats avoid their responsibilities and get richer.

  8. Blazer 8

    How can you give birth to 2 children ,live in a State house in NZ and be an overstayer for so long without being…detected?

    Woman who has overstayed in NZ for 16 years granted residence due to family ties | Stuff.co.nz

    • Jenny how to get there 8.1

      Several million White migrants have managed it for 180 years in plain sight.

    • Craig H 8.2

      All of those were covered as the wife/parent of NZ citizens (healthcare during a pregnancy is covered for unborn babies who will be NZ citizens by birth when they are born regardless of parental immigration status; wouldn't come up for the state house, benefits or working for families if the husband/father was the applicant), so I doubt anyone thought to check, or even if they did, wouldn't have anything to report because eligibility could be established in other ways if specifically asked.

    • Patricia Bremner 8.3

      How can you …

      Perhaps because you also break no other laws?, live a blameless family life?

  9. Jimmy 9

    Who the hell are these people?

    Surely letting down people's tyres will increase carbon if vehicles then need to be towed etc. And seems like they don't even like electric vehicles!

    'These people are just insane': AM hosts lash out at climate change group deflating tyres (msn.com)

    • Robert Guyton 9.1

      They are 3 "AM hosts" so far as I can tell from the link and you're right, they seem to be disconnected from reality.

      • Jimmy 9.1.1

        But it would piss you off if they deflated the tyres on your new EV.

        • Craig H

          Bit of an own goal really.

        • Robert Guyton

          Though I don't own one, I'm sure you are correct. But isn't the idea to piss-off the owners of SUVs, especially those who are "playing" by owning them?

          That the group disapprove of EVs doesn't concern me. I also have reservations about them.

          I do though, think the group is making a mistake by leaving an explanatory note.

          That makes their protest seem very "preachy" and easier to dismiss.

  10. joe90 10

    German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's address to the nation commemorating the end of WW2 in Europe.

    Ukraine will prevail. Freedom and security will win, just as freedom and security triumphed over servitude, violence and dictatorship 77 years ago

    • weston 10.1

      Yep the road to peace is fight till the last ukrainian swamp the place with ever more weapons and tank your own and everybody else's economies way to go !!

      • joe90 10.1.1

        Or depose Poots and throw the towel in.

  11. Temp ORary 11

    The bus subsidy is nice in principle, but the way that the ORC is implementing it is, well; orcish! Look at this nonsense (once you press the: Bus Alerts, button; it didn’t come over with the link) – the simple method (for bus passengers) would be to have the timetables updated to account for cancelations. But no, instead you have to juggle back and forth through multiple tabs (good luck on a mobile) to decipher possible times for routes.


    Fair enough that drivers who have COVID can't drive – though you'd think that management might have been able to predict that in a Pandemic and hire more drivers in preparation (but with the work pay and conditions, there's not much interest). As for planning for increased usage with the public transport subsidy:

    ORC transport manager Doug Rodgers said the council was pleased to be able to offer the half-price fares "and expect more people will want to jump on, especially at peak times".

    "However, services are already disrupted, so if more people catch the bus than usual, we may hit full capacity on individual routes well before they get to their destination.

    “Due to drivers isolating or being ill due to Covid, a national driver shortage and the recent increase in capacity provided for school services, we will be unable to provide extra services," Mr Rodgers said.


    Yet with all its incompetence and public frustration, the ORC still clings onto the the Dunedin bus service despite the DCC having expressed interest in running it themselves. The standard large vehicles that can be shuffled around Otago providers, are simply too big for many Dunedin streets:

    Dunedin Mayor Aaron Hawkins said the case for sticking with regional council control had not been made convincingly, "and until it is it’s hard to have a real conversation about future arrangements".

    The only other thing worth discussing at such a meeting would be how the regional council saw the city having meaningful decision-making influence over the bus service, he said…

    Regional council chairman Andrew Noone said continuing dialogue would be useful.

    Deputy chairman Michael Laws said it was anachronistic for regional councils to have responsibility for public transport.

    Regional councillor Hilary Calvert said the councils should be clear about where the responsibilities of each lay…

    City councillor {& 2nd place for mayor in 2019} Lee Vandervis said the regional council had been clear it did not want the Dunedin City Council trying to run the bus service or take over public transport.


    • Jenny how to get there 12.1

      Unfortunately public health workers are seen as a cost not a profit making enterprise, industrial action unsupported by sympathy strikes in the profit making sector of the economy is doomed to failure.

      To win their strike action the health workers need the support of the private sector unions to really press their case..

      Zimbabwe had the best public health system in Africa.
      Under Mugabe dictatorship the public health sector was underfunded, when the Nurses and Drs struck for more funding. Mugabe just privatised the whole sector. When Mugabe himself became ill, like other member of the Zimbabwe wealthy elite, Mugabe sought medical treatment overseas.

      Mugabe died while receiving treatment in a private hospital in Singapore

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