Open mike 09/10/2022

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, October 9th, 2022 - 51 comments
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51 comments on “Open mike 09/10/2022 ”

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  1. Stephen D 1
    9 October 2022 at 8:37 am

    For those of us who are interested in how language affects geopolitical affairs.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/does-ukrainian-exist-

    “A special animus, however, was reserved for forms of regional speech, which were closely related to dominant state languages, and which were viewed by the powers that be as needless, subversive irritants. In France, the Republic’s full weight was thrown against Occitan and Provençal in particular. In Spain, General Franco’s educators were pursuing their campaign to liquidate Catalan as late as 1975.

    So Ukrainian speakers in Russia were fighting a fight shared by numerous minorities across Europe. In 1917, after the formal recognition of their language, they could be forgiven for believing that a new day was dawning. They could not have imagined the ordeals that awaited.”

    • AB 1.1
      9 October 2022 at 10:22 am

      Perhaps more relevant for New Zealand is this bit:

      In these matters, Tsarist Russians were not uniquely wicked. In 19th Century Europe a widespread, Darwinian belief was that powerful so-called ‘historical languages’ like English, French, or German (and indeed Russian) deserved to flourish while ‘unhistorical languages’ were unfit to survive.

      The animus the conservative heartland in NZ has to hearing Maori on the telly is because they think it's an inferior 'unhistorical language'.

  2. weka 2
    9 October 2022 at 9:04 am

    this is a very good explanation of what is going on

    https://twitter.com/helensaxby11/status/1578668921426960384

    • roy cartland 2.1
      9 October 2022 at 1:56 pm

      Excellent bit of clarity there, thanks Weka.

      I guess it goes the other way too, with 'conservatives' raising concerns about 2 when they're against 1.

  3. PsyclingLeft.Always 3
    9 October 2022 at 9:22 am

    A large fire on farm land at Mt Creighton, near Glenorchy, has been brought under control by helicopters with monsoon buckets.

    https://www.odt.co.nz/regions/queenstown/big-farm-fire-near-glenorchy-under-control

    the fire was no longer in control yesterday afternoon, with smoke spreading across the Queenstown area and Fenz calling for back-up.

    https://www.odt.co.nz/regions/queenstown/crews-return-battle-blaze-near-queenstown

    Complaints were made to the Otago Regional Council’s pollution hotline following a large vegetation fire in the Cardrona Valley on Saturday (September 24

    The blaze began as a controlled burn off and appeared to burn out of control, affecting approximately 150 hectares above the Cardrona Valley, near the Snow Farm.

    https://wanakaapp.nz/news/news/complaints-of-pollution-follow-cardrona-fire?id=6333c92bf4c137002c111308

    Queenstown…and Wanaka

    So.."controlled" burnoff really means….a soon UNcontrolled raging inferno.

    I wonder if the farm/station owners face ANY consequences? This has been happening for decades. IMO Seems to work out well for them. Oh and FYI I have called ORC about this in the past….not much action. Obviously. : (

    • Graeme 3.1
      9 October 2022 at 10:05 am

      There's lots of thing going on that are contributing to this.

      All the changes in environmental management, and the reasons for those changes, that led to the GroundSwell movement, along with the influence of the movement, has resulted in an attitude of 'oh bugger, had an accident…'

      Add to that the huge increase in on the ground fert prices, in some high country situations 2 – 3 times last season, and burning becomes the only way high country farmers can afford to maintain production. Burning as much as possible is even better.

      As for consequences it will depend on how much DOC land got burnt, and the ecological value of what burnt. Mt Crighton has been through tenure review so DOC will be very involved and the Station has a history of poorly controlled burning.

      ORC won't do a thing, it's there to facilitate traditional agricultural activities. If you are burning the remains of a 100 year old conifer wind break that QLDC made you chop down because 'wilding seed source' then it's a different story, full enforcement even though it was fully permitted, 'you are spoiling someones view'.

      Hope DOC throw the book at them, but it'll only be for the direct costs of putting it out. And that will probably be less than what fert to give the same production would have cost and an evaluation of likely cost vs benefit would have been one before they burnt.

      • PsyclingLeft.Always 3.1.1
        9 October 2022 at 10:49 am

        Thankyou Graeme for that considered and detailed reply. It seems pretty much as I thought. ORC useless. Ive been working in both Wanaka and Queenstown when these burnoffs go up. Volcanic is a descriptive image i remember…..

        Sad that…'oh bugger, had an accident…'

        Anyway, hope they get it put out before any big winds get up again.

        • weka 3.1.1.1
          9 October 2022 at 12:17 pm

          it will blow until the front comes through bringing rain in a day or so.

          https://www.metvuw.com/forecast/forecast.php?type=rain&region=nzsi&noofdays=7

        • Graeme 3.1.1.2
          9 October 2022 at 12:34 pm

          The sad thing with ORC is that it is controlled by farmers because only farmers, and a few engaged townies, vote in the election.

          The number of blank / informal voting papers in yesterday's election was staggering. Would be very interesting to find out why people didn't vote in the ORC election, but voted in the district or city polls.

          Looking at Flight Radar just now the only machine working around Mt Crighton is one doing observation, so presuming it's either out or they've given up and letting it burn up to the snow line

          • Ad 3.1.1.2.1
            9 October 2022 at 1:52 pm

            What's your view on the composition of the ORC now?

            • Graeme 3.1.1.2.1.1
              9 October 2022 at 3:34 pm

              We need to run a book on how may days until a commissioner is appointed.

              In Dunstan it’s a complete farmer takeover if Alexa looses her seat, so the over-allocations will just get rolled over, even if it’s just for five years to get it out of Ngai Tahu’s remit. We just got a consent that Ngai Tahu had nixed by going to a six year term.

              Can see that sort of thing blowing up in their faces.

          • PsyclingLeft.Always 3.1.1.2.2
            10 October 2022 at 9:51 am

            A contractor was saved from a fiery end when a helicopter was used to pluck him from an out-of-control scrub fire near Queenstown, which firefighters are still battling — despite hundreds of hectares going up in smoke.

            "You literally cannot see any mountains from the town, you can’t even see Walter Peak.

            "If there’s this much smoke there’s definitely a big fire," Mr Smith said.

            https://www.odt.co.nz/regions/queenstown/contractor-saved-out-control-scrub-fire

            I hope that at the very least… DOC will get stuck in. 230 hectares burnt to a crisp….Because of idiots

  4. Robert Guyton 4
    9 October 2022 at 10:01 am

    Low-tech, no-tech interview with Kim Hill; excellent.

    Listen for the human-power segement.

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/audio/player?audio_id=2018861850&fbclid=IwAR0RG7tB0CALcmpQ9TzP3A1vsvRB9M3XOvK4Pv3UBzexz2OgIx6sR-pAgNo

    • weka 4.1
      9 October 2022 at 12:17 pm

      that was a treat!

      • Robert Guyton 4.1.1
        9 October 2022 at 12:26 pm

        Human-power! That's muscle-power, fuelled by food. Photosynthesis (solar-power) is the other vital one.

        I loved the suggestions around hot-water bottle use 🙂

  5. tsmithfield 5
    9 October 2022 at 11:35 am

    There is reason to believe that the damage to the Kerch bridge may have been from the Russian side rather than the Ukrainian. It is starting to appear that the scorch marks etc point to the explosion coming from the top rather than the bottom, supporting the exploding truck theory.

    So, if it was the truck, it points to a very difficult and unlikely operation for the Ukrainian SOF.

    Firstly, the truck had come from Russia heading to Crimea.

    Secondly, trucks are apparently scanned for explosives etc before going on to the bridge. So the Ukrainians would have had to find a way to avoid that checking.

    Thirdly, the driver was a Syrian, with no apparent ties back to Ukraine, and may have not even been aware the truck was loaded with explosives.

    So, the alternative explanation is that the Russians organised the attack. The question then is, who in Russia would benefit from this attack. It seems unlikely to be a false flag op organised by Putin as the bridge is his baby, and including an attack on the fuel carriages was unnecessary for that effect, and may have had unpredictable effects on the future viability of the rail bridge.

    So, the other possibility is an attempt by Putin adversaries for some reason.

  6. joe90 6
    9 October 2022 at 12:19 pm

    Russian anti-war rapper Oxxxymiron's reaction to being declared a foreign agent.

    Although he did see it coming.

    https://twitter.com/norimyxxxo/status/1578479472281804808

    Foreign agent
    I hear
    Foreign agent
    Together now
    Foreign agent
    Bulletproof argument
    For them you're still a
    Foreign agent
    Didn't know? You're a
    Foreign agent
    Everyone here is a
    Foreign agent:
    Diploma, medal, compliment

    Oxxxymiron – Агент (Agent) 2021

    The Russian justice ministry has declared one of the country’s most popular rappers to be a “foreign agent”, a legal designation that has been used to hound Kremlin critics and journalists.

    Oxxxymiron, whose real name is Miron Fyodorov, was added to an updated list of foreign agents alongside four journalists and Dmitry Glukhovsky, a prominent writer.

    The rapper has called the Kremlin’s Ukraine offensive a “catastrophe and a crime”. He cancelled a scheduled Russian tour in protest at the invasion, subsequently left Russia and gave a series of concerts in Turkey, Britain and Germany entitled “Russians Against The War”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/07/russia-declares-popular-rapper-and-writer-foreign-agents

  7. Jenny are we there yet 7
    9 October 2022 at 1:25 pm

    Ukraine’s national postal service to release new stamp with burning Crimean Bridge

    SATURDAY, 8 OCTOBER 2022, 12:02

    "The morning has never been so good.. On the occasion of the holiday, we are releasing a new stamp with the Crimean Bridge, or, more precisely, with what remains of it." General Director of Ukrposhta [Ukraine Post] Ihor Smilianskyi.

    https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/10/8/7370900/

    Special message to philatelists

    Get in quick.

    Make sure you don't miss out. These stamps will be collectibles, worth quite a bit in decades to come.

  8. tsmithfield 8
    9 October 2022 at 1:41 pm

    This video seems to prove it wasn't a truck explosion. If you step through the frames, you can see the truck still in tact just as the explosion has started.

    As I mentioned above, the truck theory doesn't really make sense if it was a Ukrainian OP. So, either a missile, planted explosions, or a drone boat I think.

    The worry for the Russians will be that if the Ukrainians have done it once, they have another go to finish off the job.

    • joe90 8.1
      9 October 2022 at 2:24 pm

      The official line is that the Kerch rail link hasn't been destroyed, merely damaged, and traffic is slow but still moving. But they would say that.

      However, if both rail links to the southern front are out?

      https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1578651113745952769

      • joe90 8.1.1
        9 October 2022 at 3:19 pm

        TFW when you fail.

        Three months ago Russian propaganda claimed the Kerch bridge was impossible to attack. With dozen or more modes to protect it, including military dolphins, it was their Maginot line.

        When Russia's enemies want to tickle Moscow's nerves yet again, they say that Ukraine can strike at the Crimean bridge. In Kyiv, almost everyone threatened us with such blows – from the president and the minister of defense to petty political clerks.

        […]

        But the Crimean bridge is protected from such attacks – by two S-400 regiments at once. They create a kind of cover dome with a diameter of 400 kilometers. In addition, there is additional multi-stage protection by air defense systems, including Pantsir S-1, Tor and others.

        And Kyiv can also send underwater sabotage groups to undermine the bridge pillars. True, this task is extremely difficult. The sabotage group will have to drag half a ton of TNT or gencogen under water. But you need to keep in mind that the bridge has a dense system of anti-sabotage defense (combat swimmers on duty, special boats and electronic sensors on supports). There is also other equipment – the so-called repellers. This is a system of sonar and suppression of saboteurs "Plavnik" – when underwater swimmers (or ordinary divers) are detected at a distance closer than 300 meters from the bridge, an audible signal is turned on with a request to leave the restricted area. If an uninvited guest does not change course and swims closer to the bridge supports than 100 meters, the intensity of the sound signal increases sharply, to the pain threshold, and the person cannot stand it.

        On land, the bridge is guarded by units of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, and on the water it is protected by the Black Sea Fleet and the coast guard of the FSB Border Service. In addition, the facility is guarded by a special naval brigade of the Russian Guard – its crews patrol the water area on anti-sabotage boats, the personnel are armed with two-medium assault rifles, as well as machine guns, grenade launchers and portable anti-aircraft missile systems.

        The Crimean Bridge is also protected by the EW (electronic warfare) service. Drone flights, even on the distant approaches to the bridge, are prohibited.

        https://www.kp.ru/daily/27390/4584149/

        google translate

  9. Adrian Thornton 9
    9 October 2022 at 3:05 pm

    Of course no news of the protests to free Assange on MSM liberal new….why am I not surprised…

  10. Molly 10
    9 October 2022 at 3:20 pm

    Well, another ill-thought out solution to a badly defined problem:

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/immigration-minister-michael-wood-qualification-requirement-to-hire-migrant-chefs-dropped/6MO5D6LHXG2OWY6T5IRSYNZO3E/

    "We agree with the hospitality industry that removing the qualification requirement for chefs to be hired through an Accredited Employer Work Visa will allow those top-rated chefs who have trained at the coal face to come to NZ."

    The changes will take effect from Tuesday, October 18.

    Wood said the requirement for chefs to hold a NZ level 4 certificate of cookery or equivalent was initially introduced to reduce risks of wage and job inflation.

    "We have heard the industry's concerns that this requirement was limiting their options to recruit chefs who do not hold formal qualifications, including some highly skilled or experienced chefs, at a time when labour market conditions are tight," he said.

    "Employers hiring chefs will now only be required to meet the median wage and market rate requirement, enabling employers to recruit from a larger pool of migrant chefs."

  11. Joe90 11
    9 October 2022 at 5:36 pm

    When Captain Kirk went to space.

    I guess Everything I had thought was wrong. Everything I had expected to see was wrong.

    I had thought that going into space would be the ultimate catharsis of that connection I had been looking for between all living things—that being up there would be the next beautiful step to understanding the harmony of the universe. In the film “Contact,” when Jodie Foster’s character goes to space and looks out into the heavens, she lets out an astonished whisper, “They should’ve sent a poet.” I had a different experience, because I discovered that the beauty isn’t out there, it’s down here, with all of us. Leaving that that behind made my connection to our tiny planet even more profound.

    It was among the strongest feelings of grief I have ever encountered. The contrast between the vicious coldness of space and the warm nurturing of Earth below filled me with overwhelming sadness. Every day, we are confronted with the knowledge of further destruction of Earth at our hands: the extinction of animal species, of flora and fauna . . . things that took five billion years to evolve, and suddenly we will never see them again because of the interference of mankind. It filled me with dread. My trip to space was supposed to be a celebration; instead, it felt like a funeral.

    https://variety.com/2022/tv/news/william-shatner-space-boldly-go-excerpt-1235395113/

    • Jenny are we there yet 11.1
      9 October 2022 at 9:43 pm

      All the evidence collected so far point towards the conclusion that apart from this small corner of it, the universe is as inanimate as it is vast.

      William Shatner the actor gets it.

  12. Belladonna 12
    9 October 2022 at 6:25 pm

    And, for a complete (and rather tasteless contrast) to Nobby Clark giving thanks to Sir Tim for his years of service – here's Wayne Brown singing "Hit the road Goff" at his victory party.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/who-is-wayne-brown-meet-aucklands-new-mayor-a-banjo-playing-grandfather-from-northland/6PSSAAAAHUX6YAP6NSL2W73ZYI/?c_id=1&objectid=12557490&ref=rss

    Not exactly gracious in victory – especially as Goff had retired, rather than been defeated.

  13. Belladonna 13
    9 October 2022 at 7:08 pm

    This is a really great initiative – looking at the needs of Mums with young children, who often don't want to, or can't work full-time – and linking them in with employers creative enough to re-imagine how their workforce is staffed.

    Yes. Not all Mums. Some have no alternative, but to work full-time. But there are a lot who would be keen to work part-time, but find the part-time jobs offered are simply not worth the pay. (Just look at day-care costs to see why)

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/calling-on-stay-at-home-mums-auckland-start-ups-move-to-combat-labour-shortage/WUCGVMD6PJ2ICE7CXVGK2QR2II/?c_id=3&objectid=12556608&ref=rss

    I work for a company which has been doing this for over 15 years – deliberately targeting highly-qualified professional women (for very specific and niche roles – so limited numbers ever available) – who want to work part-time (not all Mums, some caring for older relatives or with health issues, or simply reaching the end of their careers and wanting to dial back a little) – and where the major employers (Council and government bureaucracy) simply won't be flexible for them.

    It's been a great success for the women (I'm one of them)- and the employer has benefited from a high-skilled, creative and motivated workforce, with a deep well of loyalty to the company.

  14. aj 14
    9 October 2022 at 7:25 pm

    Many people have asked me what I think the odds are of an imminent major US-Russia nuclear war.

    https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Dod9AWz8Rp4Svdpof/why-i-think-there-s-a-one-in-six-chance-of-an-imminent

  15. Poission 15
    9 October 2022 at 8:27 pm

    Australian Actuaries release analysis for first 6 months excess mortality.

    Excess death rate 13% with projections for Covid to be Australia's third leading cause of death (behind dementia and Ischaemic heart disease)

    https://twitter.com/KarenCutter4/status/1577796504604930048?cxt=HHwWgMCjjffjuuUrAAAA

    Similar numbers here with regard to total excess deaths,due to the overweighted rate of deaths in the elderly it is highly likely we will see a decrease in the expected life expectancy in NZ as well.

  17. pat 17
    10 October 2022 at 2:54 am

    Tax cuts??

    "All of a sudden, though, the IMF saw the liberal establishment’s lost capacity to stabilize capitalism reflected in rising economic inequality. So the last thing the markets needed, the fund’s technocrats realized, was more socialism for the wealthy. But it would take a feat of wishful thinking to interpret the IMF’s panic-driven reaction as a sincere conversion to economic redistribution and social democracy. A warning against an act of elite self-harm was the extent of it"

    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/10/imf-uk-tax-cuts-inequality-neoliberalism/671651/

    None so blind