web analytics

Open mike 10/06/2025

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, June 10th, 2025 - 49 comments
Categories: open mike - Tags:


Open mike is your post.

For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose.

The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).

Step up to the mike …

49 comments on “Open mike 10/06/2025 ”

  1. Todays Posts 1
    10 June 2025 at 6:00 am

    Today's Posts (updated through the day):

    The Thunberg dilemma

    Reply
  2. gsays 2
    10 June 2025 at 8:44 am

    Just heard on RNZ Sly Stone has passed away.

    He of Sly and the Family Stone.

    One of those 'complicated' artists. Juggled musical genius that left a trail of broken friendships and relationships.

    From afar I have loved finding this artist and their art. Very influential.

    https://www.theguardian.com/music/2025/jun/09/sly-stone-pioneering-funk-and-soul-musician-dies-aged-82

    Reply
  3. Phillip ure 3
    10 June 2025 at 8:51 am

    Note to moderator:

    Unable to reply…. cursor fails to appear..

    And sly stone was a giant…

    Some of his output brushes against musical perfection..

    Reply
  4. Ad 4
    10 June 2025 at 9:02 am

    If this government needed a reminder on why growing a business here is very very hard now, they need look no further than the decline in Auckland real estate values, as per the new CVs out.

    No house value equity rise means much less available mortgage debt headtoom for growing a small business.

    Reply
    • Patricia Bremner 4.1
      10 June 2025 at 10:20 am

      In this Government's view, they have been successful as Nick Mowbray and other big donors grow their wealth while shrinking ours.

      Do you really think they care about small business Ad? No, they want multi nationals to "invest" here. That is, invest by buying our publicly owned assets and taking profits off shore. As the banks mainly do.

      To achieve that they offer tax carrots, regulation changes, and shrink our public service, safety regulations and foment division which allow practices which damage. They have deliberately sped up our democratic systems to minimise dissent. They have fast tracked all of this.

      I have looked for you Ad, to comment on David Seymour's part in this. They will hollow us out and then move on. Our only recourse is submissions, when we are allowed to make them. In the end it is Authoritarian Government, not Democratic Government. Capitalists like control. The settings now favour wealth accumulation for the already rich.

      We have to work together and vote them out. Otherwise we will end up like LA.

      Reply
    • weka 4.2
      10 June 2025 at 10:27 am

      sounds like we need a different model. Housing crisis poverty isn't a good way for a country to support small businesses.

      Reply
    • SPC 4.3
      10 June 2025 at 10:36 am

      Economic growth is not based on companies formed by borrowing against home equity.

      That is small business, generally retail (struggling to survive cost of property with loss of customers – work from home and less consumption) and tradies.

      Growth is based on functional equity markets, joint venture company formation (partnerships) and access to affordable commercial finance.

      For mine that means windfall profits tax on banks and or a 33% top rate and use of the money for business development. Another option is business loan insurance.

      Reply
      • Bearded Git 4.3.1
        10 June 2025 at 11:55 am

        True SPC.

        In any event houses in Auckland are still over-valued.

        Reply
      • Kay 4.3.2
        10 June 2025 at 11:58 am

        I have a friend who's a small business owner who I found out votes National- "because they don't tax us as much." I've never attempted to clarify, and never bring up anything political around her because it's hard enough knowing that her self-interest helps destroy the lives of so many other, and if it were anyone else I would walk away.

        Ironically, her cafe has been losing a lot of business with all the public servant layoffs…

        Reply
      • Patricia Bremner 4.3.3
        10 June 2025 at 12:10 pm

        In Australia 45% tax at highest rate. 12% put in to pension funds by employer and employee equals a large local investment pool. Property is still the "bank" of the very wealthy.

        All of this requires Insurance. Climate change is threatening our system as Under Writers reconfigure risk. As insurance surges in cost it will apply to the wealthy only, unless we resist this shrinking of the State.

        We need Government wide programmes, which will not happen with the shrunken State. Vote CoC out.

        For National to "agree" behind closed doors to support legislation R S Bill, that has previously failed three times, as part of their Coalition agreement with Act is egregious. Winston says it is "a work in progress" and he "will take note of the submissions" So submit, and let him know you do not support it.

        Reply
    • Incognito 4.4
      10 June 2025 at 10:42 am

      One of the problems as I see it is that investors-funders, lenders (banks), universities, government, and everywhere PMCs and beancounters are dominating or in charge, the prevailing mentality and culture is risk-averse, playing it safe, dodging responsibility (individual & collective), and butt-covering. Individuals, cases, projects & proposals are judged on individual ‘merit’ only, supposedly, and rejected & discarded accordingly. The closest they get to having a ‘vision’ is if their narrow-minded scope is directed towards thematic priorities of some description, usually at the expense of the rest (i.e., the silent & invisible majority).

      Instead, they should acknowledge and accept that to foster innovation means to foster a culture of curiosity, creativity, and courage (the three C’s) where failure is not a loss or cost as such but an opportunity to learn and improve. BTW, AI is killing this at rapid rate.

      Even when we in NZ invest much more money in key areas like other countries that are often held as aspirational benchmarks, it’ll be inefficient & ineffective unless this is accompanied by a culture shift, in thinking and in acting. I think the establishment with its vested interests will actively resist such change. So, at present, I can’t see this happening in NZ any time soon.

      Reply
    • bwaghorn 4.5
      10 June 2025 at 11:31 am

      Yeah but cheaper houses are good ah??

      We just need a government that can find another growth model than houses

      Reply
  5. aj 5
    10 June 2025 at 9:09 am

    For those of us concerned with the explosive development of AI and what it means for the future, this is a very interesting take on the ability of AI to 'reason' like humans do. The Apple study is a 30 page pdf, which for me is taking a while to get through. Arnaud Bertrand sums it up:

    Apple just killed the AGI myth.

    Fast forward to today and the argument is now authoritatively settled: I was right, yeah!

    How so? It was settled by none other than Apple, specifically their Machine Learning Research department, in a seminal research paper entitled “The Illusion of Thinking: Understanding the Strengths and Limitations of Reasoning Models via the Lens of Problem Complexity“ that you can find here.

    What does the paper say? Exactly what I was arguing: AI models, even the most cutting-edge Large Reasoning Models (LRMs), are no more than a very gifted parrots with basically no actual reasoning capability. They’re not “intelligent” in the slightest, at least not if you understand intelligence as involving genuine problem-solving instead of simply parroting what you’ve been told before without comprehending it.

    https://arnaudbertrand.substack.com/p/apple-just-killed-the-agi-myth?r=4r0pw&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&triedRedirect=true

    https://ml-site.cdn-apple.com/papers/the-illusion-of-thinking.pdf

    Reply
    • weka 5.1
      10 June 2025 at 10:41 am

      if the concern is will ai machines gain artificial general intelligence, then the pertinent question is: are the tech bros trying to create ago?

      Because if they are (and I can't see any reason why they wouldn't be), then either agi is an impossibility, or it's only a matter of time.

      I think that's an issue, because what we do now matters for the future. But there are other compelling reasons to be concerned about ai. The impact on the GHG budget, and the way that the 'dumb' machine is being used to manipulate humanity. Either or both of those are sufficient for serious concern without even getting to agi.

      Reply
      • Res Publica 5.1.1
        10 June 2025 at 12:06 pm

        if the concern is will ai machines gain artificial general intelligence, then the pertinent question is: are the tech bros trying to create ago?

        Because if they are (and I can't see any reason why they wouldn't be), then either agi is an impossibility, or it's only a matter of time.

        From a technical perspective, AGI has paradoxically never been both closer and further away.

        On one hand, we’ve achieved startling progress: models that can mimic human language with uncanny fluency, giving the appearance of intelligence. But that’s just surface-level imitation, powered by probabilistic token prediction.

        True AGI systems that genuinely understand, reason, plan, and generalize across domains would require not just vast leaps in computing power, but entirely new architectures. We’re talking about capabilities like symbolic reasoning, memory structures with semantic depth, and possibly consciousness-adjacent properties.

        Basically, it'll require technology entire orders of magnitude more complex than what's available to us now. None of which exists, even in theory, just yet.

        So yes, the tech bros are trying to build AGI. But whether that goal is even achievable remains an open question.

        Maybe it’s because I’m a data and AI engineer by trade, but I’m not especially afraid of AGI itself. What concerns me far more is the growing gap between the rapid availability of generative AI and our social, legal, moral, and philosophical capacity to manage it.

        Reply
        • weka 5.1.1.1
          10 June 2025 at 12:14 pm

          quite, and at the moment we are massively failing. I expect that to get worse. Silicon Valley isn't on the side of humanity or nature.

          It's good news then about the amount of computing power needed, presumably climate collapse will put a stop to that. Incredibly shitty way to go, and in the mean time we will burn our GHG budget like there is no tomorrow. Of course the uber geeks are ok with that, because they're also chasing transhumanism.

          I feel for the people in the industry like yourself that have a social conscience. We could be doing such amazing, pro-social, biophillic things with tech at this point in history. But if it comes down to it, I will choose nature always.

          Reply
          • Res Publica 5.1.1.1.1
            10 June 2025 at 12:38 pm

            Yeah, the whole ivory tower nerd thing never made much sense to me.

            Don’t get me wrong: I love tech. I love building things, solving hard problems, watching good ideas come to life.

            But technology never exists in a vacuum. It always serves a purpose, sits inside a culture, and shapes the world around it: for better or worse.

            If we lose sight of that, then we’re not innovating. We’re just playing with expensive toys while the house burns down.

            As for transhumanism? To me, it feels like huffing industrial quantities of copium. It’s nothing but an angsty teenage fantasy that we can outrun our biological and ecological limits with enough code and compute. When what we actually need is to learn how to live better within them.

            Reply
    • AB 5.2
      10 June 2025 at 11:15 am

      The Illusion of Thinking

      Well, yeah. 'Thought' is by definition a property of biological entities – so whatever these machines do, cannot be called 'thinking'. Also, humans have no idea how their own thinking works – and will never know because we simply lack the cognitive tools to interrogate our own thinking process itself. And therefore, we cannot reproduce in machine form an aspect of ourselves that we do not even begin to understand in the first place.

      That's no real cause for comfort though. Because AI may be able to do an excellent job of simulating the outputs of thought – so all the political problems remain.

      Reply
    • Res Publica 5.3
      10 June 2025 at 11:57 am

      Yeah, exactly.

      All current AI models really do is predict the next most likely token given some input and context. They're incredibly good at it because they've been trained on basically the whole internet. But that doesn’t mean they understand what they’re saying.

      It’s like a toddler repeating swearwords they heard from adults: they can mimic the tone and the phrasing with eerie accuracy, but there’s zero grasp of meaning, intention, or consequence.

      The output sounds smart, but there’s no actual reasoning happening behind the scenes.

      Reply
  6. Hunter Thompson II 6
    10 June 2025 at 11:28 am

    Take notice if you value recreation in our waterways.

    The government wants to muzzle Fish & Game NZ, at the same time making it easier for intensive farming to plunder rivers: https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO2506/S00024/changes-to-fish-game-continue-coalitions-handover-of-power-to-polluters.htm

    The coalition created a Minister of Hunting and Fishing but I guess that's just a facade.

    Reply
    • Drowsy M. Kram 6.1
      10 June 2025 at 12:00 pm

      The coalition created a Minister of Hunting and Fishing… that’s just a facade.

      yes Meager offers meager comfort, and RMA ‘reforms’ less environmental protection.

      Reply
    • Bearded Git 6.2
      10 June 2025 at 12:03 pm

      Thanks for that Hunter-that really is terrible. Labour's excellent swimmable rivers policy being washed away.

      When people say that the Labour government didn't deliver in its last 3 years (which I dispute) people seem to forget to compare this with the endless list of things this government has done that are negative for Maori, society, cultural values and the environment.

      Some keen Standardista needs to start a detailed list. Maybe we already have one?

      Reply
  7. Bearded Git 7
    10 June 2025 at 12:45 pm

    The criminal Israeli government says it will make Greta Thunberg watch footage of the October 7 Hamas attack.

    Surely the Israeli government should be made to watch footage of the slaughter of 50,000 people in Gaza, including many thousands of them children and babies?

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/greta-thunberg-will-be-made-to-watch-footage-of-oct-7-say-israelis/4TNQOL2KYZGANJDPVL234MLZGA/

    Netanyahu has certainly succeeded on one level-Israel is now almost universally regarded as a pariah state.

    Reply
    • Obtrectator 7.1
      10 June 2025 at 5:21 pm

      The criminal Israeli government says it will make Greta Thunberg watch footage of the October 7 Hamas attack.

      Clockwork Orange style? Likely to be a rather pointless exercise otherwise.

      Reply
      • Nic the NZer 7.1.1
        10 June 2025 at 5:36 pm

        Sounds like a legitimate experiment to me. Unless Greta turns into an ardent Israeli apologist as a result of this footage we will understand the Israeli response was not justified by it.

        Reply
  8. Muttonbird 8
    10 June 2025 at 1:05 pm

    Trump doing a lot to raise the profile of Gavin Newsom. He would make a decent next president:

    I was just informed Trump is deploying another 2,000 Guard troops to L.A. The first 2,000? Given no food or water. Only approx. 300 are deployed — the rest are sitting, unused, in federal buildings without orders. This isn’t about public safety. It’s about stroking a dangerous President’s ego. This is Reckless. Pointless. And Disrespectful to our troops.

    Reply
    • SPC 8.1
      10 June 2025 at 1:25 pm

      Yes another 2000 (total now 4000)

      And also a battallion of marines (based in California) are being sent in to protect the California National Guard who were mobilised to protect ICE agents of Homeland Security,

      POTUS 47 has organised a parade of tanks on Capitol Hill for his 79th birthday, Saturday June 14.

      The line up of this bundle of phallic rods, is to pose as Optimus Maximus, revelation of the Best and Greatest, the American Donald J'Zeus Trump.

      It's cult fascism.

      Imperial Caesar Cosplay

      Reply
    • Dennis Frank 8.2
      10 June 2025 at 1:53 pm

      Yeah, but it depends how well he performs in this crisis. A credible leftist stance would be a good idea and I keep hoping. The public morality arena requires the left to exhibit a principle that will stand against T's assumption of control. States rights is a principle, but too general and abstract when harm is actively happening.

      Trump said that he would support arresting California Gov. Gavin Newsom for purported obstruction of federal immigration enforcement actions in LA. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/09/trump-sued-national-guard-la-california-newsom.html

      Flying a kite as sideshow. Purporting anything ain't ever a crime. I assume suing is Newsom's idea of a power-play, but it'd be real cool if the media explained the merit of the strategy – or lack of it…

      Reply
    • bwaghorn 8.3
      10 June 2025 at 3:47 pm

      What sort of tin pot democracy let's the president actually call the shots on when to send in the national guard!

      Reply
    • mpledger 8.4
      10 June 2025 at 9:58 pm

      The military's first duty is to uphold the constitution, not do as ordered by the president. It will be interesting to see how far the military is willing to be pushed before they say enough is enough.

      Because Americans are wedded to their 3 branches of government (legislative, executive, and judicial) they forget that the group able to wield the greatest power is the military.

      Reply
    • Bearded Git 8.5
      12 June 2025 at 9:39 am

      mmm…isn't it a requirement that you have to be nearly 80?

      Reply
  9. SPC 9
    10 June 2025 at 2:05 pm

    The GOP is continuing with the 2017 era tax cuts, excluding the $1000 to $2000 per child tax credit

    Now Trump is proposing a $1000 account per child (invested and might be $3000 by the time they are 18)

    Their parents are losing $18,000 over the 18 years. And facing the cost of tariffs on imports.

    https://apnews.com/article/baby-bonds-trump-child-poverty-8503180dc5c57a2f20dd59d7ece01d6a

    Reply
  10. SPC 10
    10 June 2025 at 3:30 pm

    It is now common for leaders of coalition partners to be deputy PM.

    Roll call.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deputy_Prime_Minister_of_New_Zealand

    It is however very uncommon for there to be one as extreme in their vision for the nation.

    Labour may have been that seen as that back in the 1920's, but their state house building paved the way for growth in home ownership by families.

    Neo-liberalism took us away from that and it is doubtful that they will return this land to that. In fact they seem determined on another course lower levels of home ownership and more property owned by landlords, including foreigners (they intend to allow foreigners to own property to rent to locals).

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/politics/360716927/ian-taylor-seymours-rise-second-seat-power-far-beyond-his-mandate

    Reply
  11. Joe90 11
    10 June 2025 at 3:45 pm

    Thread.

    Eliot Higgins
    ‪@eliothiggins.bsky.social‬

    🧵 Several people have raised questions about what I meant by "deservedly so" when referring to the decline of institutional trust. It's a fair question, so I want to explain that, because it sits at the heart of my work on how democracies collapse when their epistemic foundations rot.

    Eliot Higgins

    ‪@eliothiggins.bsky.social‬

    The conditions that have led to what’s happening in the US today exist in democracies around the world. They are an inevitable outcome of our collective failure to adapt to fundamental changes in the information ecosystem on which our democracies were originally built.

    https://bsky.app/profile/eliothiggins.bsky.social/post/3lr74xury2c2d

    https://skyview.social/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fbsky.app%2Fprofile%2Feliothiggins.bsky.social%2Fpost%2F3lr74xury2c2d&viewtype=tree

    Reply
  12. Ed1 12
    10 June 2025 at 4:34 pm

    Suppose the Regulatory Standards Bill is passed in much its current form. It makes it harder to get legislation and regulations through, so a new government at the next election repeals it and returns to current law. Are there any problems in the meantime?

    Suppose a new government repeals the law, and then bans the sale of say vapes. Would that mean that those making a profit from selling vapes would have to stop, and they would get no compensation for loss of profits?

    On a different issue, Nicola Willis claims that she will bring down profits of supermarkets. If the RSB is passed first, would the government have to pay damages to the existing supermarkets for the government reducing their profits. If so, how would that cost be calculated?

    In summary, can we wait this thing out and cancel the bill as soon as a new government is elected – provided we are sure ACT/Nat (and NZ First?) will not be re-elected?

    Reply
  13. gsays 13
    10 June 2025 at 5:06 pm

    And for all political tragics Bomber's The Bradbury Group is on tonight at 8pm.

    https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2025/06/10/8pm-live-tonight-the-bradbury-group-with-rawiri-waititi-arena-williams-dita-de-boni-and-professor-susan-st-john/

    "Political Panel:

    • Labour Party MP for Manurewa, Arena Williams
    • Auckland Business Editor for The Post – Dita De Boni
    • Child poverty campaigner, Associate Professor Susan St John
    • Issue 1 – What does the punishment handed out to the Maori Party MPs say about the state of Democracy in NZ?
    • Issue 2 – The NBR 2025 Rich list vs the 500 000 kiwis needing food banks each month
    • and Issue 3 tonight – Greta Thurnburg, Trump invading California and the future of protest"
    Reply

Leave a Comment