Open mike 12/08/2021

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, August 12th, 2021 - 81 comments
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81 comments on “Open mike 12/08/2021 ”

  1. weka 1

    People following vaccine trials and tracking, have there been studies on long covid in vaccinated people who had acute covid post-vax?

  2. KJT 2

    No published definative trials yet. Several started.
    https://www.huffpost.com/entry/will-people-who-get-covid-post-vaccination-have-long-term-symptoms_l_60afda9be4b0ead279660672

    However promising indications so far. Including that vaccination may help with those who already have long covid.

    Long Covid symptoms ease after vaccination, survey finds | Long Covid | The Guardian

    • weka 2.1

      Thanks KJT. So the gist is that the numbers of people getting covid post-vaccine are small at .01%, and they don't have much data on long covid post-vaccine yet.

      Based on the CDC’s preliminary data from April, about 30% of vaccine breakthrough infections were totally asymptomatic. An estimated 10% of people with breakthrough cases were hospitalized and 2% died, but it’s crucial to note that a decent portion of those hospitalizations and deaths were unrelated to COVID-19.

      hmm, 10% and 2% isn't insignificant. 'Unrelated to covid' is really unclear especially given the low numbers.

      • McFlock 2.1.1

        160 is a manageable number to assess individual causes of death with regards to whether covid played a part. Especially when the median age of death is 82.

        • weka 2.1.1.1

          I don't know what that means.

          • McFlock 2.1.1.1.1

            ok.

            If there are 160,000 deaths, doing a study like this relies on administrative data. Many people won't have had coronial examinations, it'll basically be the death administrative data cross referenced with test result dataand maybe a cross reference with computerised hospital records. At best. The most timely data will be something like "died after a positive covid test, or with a postmortem positive covid test". Hence some denialists place weight on the term "died with covid" rather than "from covid", their theory being that I might be asymptomatic with covid and get hit by a bus, examiner draws blood and I "died with positive covid test". That doesn't explain why a hundred and sixty thousand people were suddenly hit by busses, but plague denialists don't have much to cling to.

            But with 160 deaths, it's feasible for a small team doing the research to actually review each death and say "oh, that dude was hit by a bus, death not related to covid". Or confirm that the late-stage cancer was the reason the patient was admitted, and they were actually asymptomatic in hospital despite the positive test on admission and 'twas the cancer that got 'em.

            to put it another way:

            Each death would get a local area review (death cert, maybe hospital case review committee, maybe a referral to a coronial inquiry, that sort of thing) but they'd be putting in forms as well as detailed case notes, by and large. That form data gets coded into a system, and someone else looking for e.g. covid deaths might get 160k deaths with "covid" flagged in the contributing causes of death.

            But with deaths measured in the dozens, a research committee with appropriate authority might be able to actually review the case notes to get a better idea of the case. That can be as useful as the form data, because although it's more work, it's a finer-toothed comb.

      • UncookedSelachimorpha 2.1.2

        Some fully-vaccinated people with breakthrough infections do actually die of Covid of course. The vaccines vastly reduce your risk, but not to zero. A few people are still unlucky.

        Fully-vaccinated people who die of Covid tend to be the most vulnerable (elderly, underlying conditions – e.g. Massachusetts coronavirus breakthrough deaths: 73% had underlying conditions, median age was 82.5 ) – and vaccines work less well in the very elderly due to reduced capacity to mount an immune response.

        This was a useful insight:

        “Someone aged 80 who is fully vaccinated essentially takes on the risk of an unvaccinated person of around 50 – much lower, but still not nothing, "

  3. Ad 3

    Big shoutout to President Biden but in particular to Senator Bernie Sanders who actually formed the blueprint for this massive infrastructure bill that has gone through the Senate. This is Bernie's own statement on it here:

    https://www.sanders.senate.gov/press-releases/news-senate-budget-chairman-sanders-and-majority-leader-schumer-introduce-historic-budget-resolution/

    Of course the commentators can see shadows in why the group of 18 Republican Senators supported it:

    https://www.salon.com/2021/08/11/the-ominous-reason-why-republican-opposition-to-bidens-infrastructure-spending-crumbled/

    But the number of longstanding Democrat programmes that have been funded in this is pretty spectacular, for US politics.

  4. Treetop 4

    I was not expecting to reschedule having my Covid vaccination. Both vaccination dates need to be booked at the same booking on the 0800 28 29 26. I want an 8 week gap. I was surprised to be told that the booking system could not give me a date 8 weeks from early September (date of the first jab) for the second jab. I will need to cancel the second date as only a month gap.

    • weka 4.1

      what happens if you can't make the second appointment?

      • Treetop 4.1.1

        I did not ask.

        I could not use the second booked date for the first jab either with the initial booking.

        • weka 4.1.1.1

          I'm curious now how easy they make it to get the second jab if you have to cancel the appointment.

          • Treetop 4.1.1.1.1

            A second appointment is given but only a 4 week gap. If a 8 week gap is wanted then the second date will need to be cancelled as the booking system is only loaded until early October.

            Sometimes there are a few weeks to wait for the first appointment. There was talk earlier in the week of having a 8 week gap.

            • Andre 4.1.1.1.1.1

              Maybe try again today to get that eight-week-gap booking. The ground has shifted.

              People who had already been fully vaccinated with doses less than six weeks apart were still protected from the virus, while those who have their second vaccination booked fewer than six weeks after their first could change their booking.

              https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/126047313/covid19-everyone-eligible-for-vaccine-from-september-1-sixweek-gap-between-doses

              I booked online and had no problems with getting my first booking for 18th August and second booking 29th Septmeber for a six-week gap.

              • Treetop

                I rang at 8.30 am this morning to cancel for this Saturday.

                I will go to the first jab and then rebook for the second one. I see a specialist mid September as I have mast cell and systemic scleroderma and want to make sure my system coped with the first jab. I have not been myself for a couple weeks.

              • Bearded Git

                I had my first jab yesterday then tried to change the date of my second jab (booked online at the same time as the first) but it was impossible.

                So I booked a second jab (with a 10 week gap) and emailed them to cancel the other second jab.

              • Forget now

                I was already planning on a 12 week gap myself (having read some of the research on which the interdose interval increase is based). But still no bookings available for October. So I have just canceled my 3week repeat jab and put a reminder in late September to make the booking then. I guess I should change that reminder to earlier in the month now.

                That said – if there is a community transmitted outbreak, I will likely be going for an early jab. Though (to grossly simplify), if the Pfizer is; 60% effective on first dose, up to 90% after 3weeks, or 95% after 3months; then it would make more sense for more people to have more first doses, than to topup the half vaccinated.

                Still, the PITCH studies medical population may not be that generalizable to Aotearoa. And in others there may be confounding of interdose and postdose periods.

    • bwaghorn 4.2

      Mate just get your 2 how ever it works ,we going to be getting a 3rd jab I reckon and probably 1 every year after.

      • Treetop 4.2.1

        It is the anticipation, usually I do not give anything medical much thought.

      • UncookedSelachimorpha 4.2.2

        Yes, it is a balance of risk.

        Somewhat stronger immune response with a longer gap, but if the delta variant enters NZ, you need to get your second jab then wait 2+ weeks for full immunity to develop…hopefully you get there before you encounter actual Covid!

        A 3 week gap still gives a very good result, just not absolutely optimum.

  5. weka 5

    The people who decided to co-opt the identical binary vocabulary used forever to refer to sex to also refer to "gender" created this problem, and they can solve it any time they like by coining new terms and pronouns for people who want to be referred to by gender not sex

    From twitter

    Seems a useful solution all things considered.

    The reasons why that might not work, as far as I can tell, are that some people want to smash the binary, others want sex to become a social construct alone, and some people have dysphoria and need their chosen gender ID to be affirmed by those around them all the time.

    All of that should be debated in open society so that we get a say in what is a major and fundamental changing of English language usage. I’m not a fan of allowing people with mental health issues (dysphoria) to have such a degree of control as this without everyone getting time and space to think about what it means.

    The smash the binary crowd need to front up and explain the value and let that be debated alongside those who believe the binary has some uses.

    • Forget now 5.1

      Did we get a chance to debate the change in language where; "literally", now literally means both; figuratively and literally (literal antonyms)? Inflammable and flammable being synonyms? Second person plural (/formal) used in place of second person singular (e.g. "You" in place of "Thou")?

      English is a hodge-podge of different languages and times, and in any case is being replaced by American as the lingua franca (at least there's not still gendering of words to remember like the original French tongue). For example; "colour" gets red-marked by TS spell checker, while "color" is let through without question. Conveying meaning is more important than lexiconic accuracy, despite one's aesthetic preferences.

      Anyway; there already are NB neo-pronouns that are very seldom used – because of the hassle in explaining them every time they are; except in rare trans-only gatherings where there might be a reasonable expectation of being understood. Mx in place of; Mr or Ms; Xe/ Xem/ Xyr in place of; They/ Them/ Their. Maybe that will change in the future, but it seems unlikely that spoken language (in a multitude of dialects) will take much notice of an academic debate about ideal pronoun usage in an ideal world. I do like; E/Em/ Eir, because that is close to what NZ people often sound like to my ear, when they are speaking naturally, though that isn't in common usage.

      • Nic the NZer 5.1.1

        You can change the language setting to UK or NZ English when you tire of your spell checker.

        • Forget now 5.1.1.1

          I sometimes change language in word processors, but most of the time I acknowledge that default English is US English, so I had better learn to use it that way. I wish I could remember how to use macrons for te Reo Maori though (on mobile now, so not even going to try!).

          • Nic the NZer 5.1.1.1.1

            I have worked in environments where UK or US english spelling is a shared standard, so I sometimes have needed to recognise the differences.

            The maori macrons I find a little funny at present, due to stuff self declaring they are historically racist, and now using macrons in their headline spelling without correcting the generated urls (e.g get it programmed to sub out the macron a for a regular a in the headlined link). Its just a but funny that they have said they really care but in practice they don't bother with following through.

  6. WeTheBleeple 6

    Down With Farmer Bashing Nonsense.

    We've all heard (at least in the NZ version of events) about how cows and farmers are to blame for climate change and that's simply not true. For oil and agricultural giants to shift blame onto (mostly) hard working farmers is scummy behaviour indeed. These same people have also shifted the onus onto you, the consumer, as if you recycling and eating tofu is going to cut it. Meanwhile they continue to drill, dig and gaslight our planet.

    Don't get me wrong, every bit of pollution reduction helps at this stage of the game, we should all be decreasing our consumption. But agricultural giants are still destroying rainforest to bring you soy for your latte, while many local farmers have joined the fight against climate change and environmental degradation.

    As a wiser person than me once said: It's not the cow, it's the how.

    Ruminant animals are an integral part of Savannah, Grasslands, Plains and Prairie biomes. They naturally mob together to avoid predators and through this graze and trample down grasses and forbes in one area. Then, due to lack of feed, they move. This is nature, nature practising rotational grazing.

    The cows/bison/wildebeest/add grazers and browsers here… pass and the plants and microbes get to work. The plant wants to rebuild and so it sends carbon in the form of simple sugars down to the root system where it is consumed by bacteria and fungi in exchange for other nutrients. The soil biota sequester large amounts of carbon (raising soil fertility in the form of humus and food web nutrient cycling) as the plant rebuilds above ground.

    The litter left on the ground is food for insects and microbes. Grinders and shredders break it down as microbes and fungi colonise surfaces – this in turn attracts worms, some that work in the litter, some that drag organic matter down into the soil. The soil gets enriched and aerated.

    Roots get deeper and deeper, biodiversity increases leading to better overall growth through shifting seasons. Ground cover increases leading to some protection from drought. Water infiltration increases leading to some protection from flood.

    Another wise person said of all this: It is not man, but management.

    The closer we get to understanding and imitating natural cycles the less work we need to do to get a product. As added bonuses we increase both fertility and resilience on our farms.

    Trees are also an integral part of agro-eco systems, but that's another post.

    While some of our farmers have chosen climate denial and blaming Labour for their difficulties, many others are leading the charge in creating eco-conscious systems that will help us not only survive, but thrive into the future.

    If you're looking for targets to vent your spleen at, leave farmers alone unless they're dirty bastards like those running feedlots.

    It's not the cow, it's the how.

    • weka 6.2

      spot on WtB. How would you feel about me putting that up as a Guest Post?

      • WeTheBleeple 6.2.1

        OK, but check my language please in case I've missed something a bit crude. I still tend to swear like a sailor where other words would suffice. Like the 2nd to last paragraph – if you could change bastards to practitioners… wink

        Also, may as well use my name. I’m DB Brown. Pleased to meet ya.

    • Poission 6.3

      Ruminant animals are an integral part of Savannah, Grasslands, Plains and Prairie biomes. They naturally mob together to avoid predators and through this graze and trample down grasses and forbes in one area. Then, due to lack of feed, they move. This is nature, nature practising rotational grazing.

      The Coevolution of grasses and grazers led to cenzoic cooling.

      Grasslands have long been considered products
      of the coevolution of grasses and grazers (Koval-
      evsky 1873). Few plants other than grasses can
      withstand the high-crowned, enamel-edged teeth
      and hard hooves of antelope and horses. Yet these
      same animals are best suited to the abrasive gritty
      opal phytoliths and dust of flat, open grasslands.
      Grasses recover readily from fire and nurture large
      herbivores such as elephants: both fire and ele-
      phants promote grassland at the expense of wood-
      land

      https://cpb-us-e1.wpmucdn.com/blogs.uoregon.edu/dist/d/3735/files/2013/07/grasslandscooling-ni1ucb.pdf

    • joe90 6.4

      Wondering how much of present day's associated livestock are ruminants.

      Comparison of current global biomass with prehuman values (which are very difficult to estimate accurately) demonstrates the impact of humans on the biosphere. Human activity contributed to the Quaternary Megafauna Extinction between ≈50,000 and ≈3,000 y ago, which claimed around half of the large (>40 kg) land mammal species (30). The biomass of wild land mammals before this period of extinction was estimated by Barnosky (30) at ≈0.02 Gt C. The present-day biomass of wild land mammals is approximately sevenfold lower, at ≈0.003 Gt C (SI Appendix, Pre-human Biomass and Chordates and Table S11). Intense whaling and exploitation of other marine mammals have resulted in an approximately fivefold decrease in marine mammal global biomass [from ≈0.02 Gt C to ≈0.004 Gt C (31)]. While the total biomass of wild mammals (both marine and terrestrial) decreased by a factor of ≈6, the total mass of mammals increased approximately fourfold from ≈0.04 Gt C to ≈0.17 Gt C due to the vast increase of the biomass of humanity and its associated livestock. Human activity has also impacted global vertebrate stocks, with a decrease of ≈0.1 Gt C in total fish biomass, an amount similar to the remaining total biomass in fisheries and to the gain in the total mammalian biomass due to livestock husbandry (SI Appendix, Pre-human Biomass).

      The impact of human civilization on global biomass has not been limited to mammals but has also profoundly reshaped the total quantity of carbon sequestered by plants. A worldwide census of the total number of trees (32), as well as a comparison of actual and potential plant biomass (17), has suggested that the total plant biomass (and, by proxy, the total biomass on Earth) has declined approximately twofold relative to its value before the start of human civilization. The total biomass of crops cultivated by humans is estimated at ≈10 Gt C, which accounts for only ≈2% of the extant total plant biomass (17).

      https://www.pnas.org/content/115/25/6506

      • WeTheBleeple 6.4.1

        Not sure exactly what's being asked. Could you rephrase the question?

        Historically vast herds were part and parcel of grass dominated biomes – it would be interesting to know if the reduction in wild animals biomass is similar or dwarfed by the mass of todays domesticated animals. But we may underestimate historic populations significantly. I always take studies like this with a grain of salt (makes the meat tastier).

        NZ had enormous numbers of seabirds redistributing oceanic nutrients onto land, enhancing terrestrial biomes which would have, in turn, enriched estuarine and wetland systems. Fish migration inland is also a considerable source of terrestrial inputs, and many New Zealand species are anadromous.

        The paper Poisson dropped above suggests carbon from grassy biomes gets sequestered long-term via erosion depositing carbon rich soils in wetlands and estuarine systems. Wetland (and estuarine) restoration takes on new significance in this light: on top of nutrient cycling, habitat, biodiversity, productivity, aquifer replenishment, etc, we have long term carbon sequestration. One can't produce soil indefinitely, however, unless you have phenomenon like enormous numbers of birds redistributing nutrients – replenishing losses from weathering processes.

        • joe90 6.4.1.1

          Sorry, poorly phrased.

          Whether ruminants in the associated livestock bio mass would match or exceed the extinct, wild ruminant bio mass.

          • WeTheBleeple 6.4.1.1.1

            My masters study was of the evolution of large mammals. Suffice it to say numbers were advantageous to adaptive ability. But historic range sizes (proxy for population size) had been greatly reduced for hundreds of species in the study, as mans presence encroached.

            It looks like we're both curious as to answering the same question regarding historic wild vs current domestic biomass. My old professor might know, I'll ask him.

            • WeTheBleeple 6.4.1.1.1.1

              I'll just add to my notes above re: redistribution of nutrients. Seaweed farming and usage on land might at least partially replace historic bird and fish numbers transferring sea nutrients to land.

    • Bearded Git 6.5

      It is the intensity of the farming that is the problem. Southland is not the Savannah or the Prairies.

      David Parker was excellent on the farm pollution issue on Morning Report (RNZ) today.

      • WeTheBleeple 6.5.1

        Absolutely, BG. Intensity has been able to be increased via pouring on nitrates. But, with regulations in place/being put in place this practise should, at least theoretically, stop. Fonterra seems to be big on PR and rubbish on halting non-compliance. Perhaps some of our ire might be delivered to their doorstep.

        When one decreases farm inputs (like nitrate), it may indeed decrease overall output. However, this also has decreased costs. Not just in reduced fertiliser bills, but also vets bills, better PR, better animal health… E.g. rye staggers (ergot) love high nitrates and overgrazing; while mixed pastures with legumes, timed grazing and leaving residue all factor in to decreasing staggers. When accounting for all factors, farmers may find they're better off in many ways, including what's left in the pocket.

        While greatly simplified, a farm ecosystem is still an ecosystem, and will respond to eco-conscious management.

        I don't listen to any radio, but feel free to share points you thought worth highlighting.

  7. Sabine 7

    And maybe we can also stop blaming people for not getting a vaccine they actually can't get.

    https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2021/08/coronavirus-health-officials-quietly-change-vaccine-availability-for-port-workers-following-tauranga-delta-scare.html

    Health officials have quietly made changes to COVID-19 vaccine availability for port workers amid the Delta variant scare in Tauranga.

    Until now, only workers interacting with ships and crew were entitled to a vaccine – just a fraction of the workforce at the ports.

    Charles Finny, who is the independent chair of the Port Company CEO Group, says they've been trying to change the rules to allow all workers to get the jab.

    "We've been arguing for that for months," he says.

    But suddenly, amid the Tauranga COVID-19 scare, a change was made after port CEOs met with Director-General of Health Dr Ashley Bloomfield on Tuesday.

    "We were told yesterday and Dr Bloomfield agreed with us that that didn't make much sense," Finny says.

    "There was definitely frustration and we're very pleased that we have got the rules changed."

    The Government's messaging so far, even from Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern on Wednesday, had been that vaccines were always available for port workers.

    COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said on Wednesday it wasn’t possible to do it earlier due to vaccine supply issues.

    just vaccinate all those that want it – and we currently have a million bookings so it is not as if people don't try to get it, and once everyone willing has had their jabs, complain about those that still don't come forward.

  8. Muttonbird 8

    Oh, yes. Is that just a ban on me using that term, or an outright ban for everyone.

    I must say either way it doesn't say much for your position on free speech.

    I use it as an antidote to your prolific use of the equally racist hate term, "woke". Will you be banning that word also?

    Do doubt y’all will be arguing about this in the back end. Have fun!

    [we actually have better things to be doing, although notes do get made in the back end so we can track patterns of behaviour. I will note that your comments here are an intentional flaming of a TS Author, and that will get moderator attention too. I disagree with RL on a number of things, but you seem to think you can behave how you like and stir up shit at will, and that disrespects the work we all do.

    I’m getting sick of people here who should know better and still can’t or won’t differentiate between arguing the politics vs having a go at individuals, and who just end up creating more work for authors and moderators and making the place harder to be in. Ball is in your court. – weka]

    [TheStandard: A moderator moved this comment to Open Mike as being off topic or irrelevant in the post it was made in. Be more careful in future.]

  9. Andre 9

    To my taste, the border opening proposals are too loose too soon.

    Allowing things like vaccinated travelers to come back and isolate at home before everyone that wants the vaccine has had it is too much risk of infecting some that want it but genuinely haven't had reasonable opportunity.

    To my taste, it's also too much risk of creating a local outbreak that will require a level 3 or level 4 lockdown to contain. That's too much risk of seriously disrupting people's lives for too little reward in allowing just a privileged few some more privilege.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300380835/covid-19-nz-resets-approach-with-faster-vaccine-rollout-border-reopening-trial-this-year

  10. Forget now 10

    The ODT says Waipori fund is up $6 million this year, so if anyone is having trouble with electricity bills in Dunedin then that may be something worth accessing. I thought there was a 2 year stand-down, but apparently it is only a year (officially) – so I might be getting on with that next power bill myself. Problem is that you have to go down and deal with Christian social-services, who aren't always the most cooperative with non-Christians &/or gender diverse people.

    The fund, after distributions, grew from $94 million to $100 million in the past year.

    https://www.odt.co.nz/news/dunedin/waipori-fund-grows-100-million

    This fund helps to address fuel poverty in the city, providing much needed support for people and whānau struggling to pay their electric bills. Annually around 600 people / whānau are assisted. The fund is managed on the DCC's behalf by the Dunedin Budget Advisory Service, and administered by this service, along with Family Works – Presbyterian Support, Catholic Social Services, and the Salvation Army.

    https://www.dunedin.govt.nz/services/funding-and-grants/electricity-fund/electricity-and-healthy-homes-grants

    I have not dealt with the DBAS before (Community House 283-301 Moray Place – so on bushub corner?), but at least they seem nonreligious. The Catholics (and Anglican family support for different things) were pretty grudging in their aid last time I applied through them.

  11. alwyn 11

    I have seen that Micky Savage has in the past commented on "leaked" UMR polls.

    Does he have anything to say on this latest little snippet on the subject. Regarding the subject I have seen tweets that claim that UMR’s latest poll is supposed to have Labour at 38%, National at 31%, ACT 13% and the Greens at 8%. It sounds to be a quite likely result but I'm sure that Micky has sources much closer to the source of this than I do.

    This would certainly be giving the backbenchers in Labour the shakes if they are allowed to see it.

    https://twitter.com/Coltheman1/status/1425374215151124486

    • Bearded Git 11.1

      Even if that poll is true it would still elect a Lab/Green/MP government with 63 seats.

      • Alan 11.1.1

        but a trend is emerging that suggests that may not be the case in the future

        • McFlock 11.1.1.1

          If these trends continue, there's probably only another couple of terms left in the govt…

          lol

          • Alan 11.1.1.1.1

            you keep thinking that

            • McFlock 11.1.1.1.1.1

              Mate, I'm not the one basing their optimism on reports from a guy whose claim to fame is turning magazines and books around so some low-waged person has to reorganise them later.

              • Alan

                labour had an absolute majority on election night, that was not very long ago. UMR is not the only poll showing the trend.

                • McFlock

                  Let's look at that, shall we?

                  Firstly, no poll has had National on 30% since the election. The polls immediately before the election had nations at 31, but were off by 5% or so. Either way, the last few polls have had national stuck at sub-30 with little to no improvement.

                  Labour is indeed trending down, and 38% isn't completely out of the question. But again, the polls undercounted Labour by 5% just prior to the actual election result, so meh.

                  But what of their friends? The Greens are steady at 10%, usually a couple of percent either side. They polled at the lower end of that bound in 2020.

                  ACT are interesting, increasing support in the last few polls where national has remained steady. The supposed "leak" has no movement for them, while national increases: the opposite of the more recent observations.

                  Now, maybe nact is trailing labgrn by 2%. Weirder things have happened in NZ politics. But that would mean that "coltheman" is the one with the inside scoop on this, then the nats are less competent than that moron. Which puts their 31% down to luck rather than ability. Now, advancement by luck rather than merit is on brand for a corporate-capitalist shill like nact, but it's not sustainable in the long run.

    • Red Blooded One 11.2

      Perhaps the nutjob Coltheman who used to go around turning over magazines with the face of Jacinda on is simply "leaking" numbers out of his arse, If you count him as a reliable source, more twit you.

      • WeTheBleeple 11.2.1

        These folks who make hate a full time job are everywhere. On the one hand they claim the Govt is useless because all their problems haven't been solved by whinging and attacking others. On the other they back parties who want to reduce government oversight – which would make it less than useless.

        Not a mensa contender to be seen or heard.

    • joe90 11.3

      Desperation…

    • McFlock 11.4

      lol

      If that book-bturner has better contacts in the PM's office than all the parliamentary press corps and the opposition combined, no fucking way Judith has the nats up to 31%.

    • Anne 11.5

      UMR does polling for private companies. They pay for the privilege of having their own polling tailored to their specific needs. Its not surprising therefore the results get leaked on a regular basis and there's no guarantee they are correct. There have been instances in the past when the leaks were wrong.

      In the case of the philistine, Coltheman his words "my contact in the Prime Minister's Office" is a dead giveaway he's lying through his teeth. The PM’s Office is highly unlikely to be on UMR’s list of recipients.

      • Incognito 11.5.1

        You do know who he is, don’t you? A fragile man with a fragile ego (yeah, that’s a tautology) who loves to turn over magazines with Ardern’s face on the cover. Just the kind of guy who Alwyn would take seriously, of course.

        • Anne 11.5.1.1

          Yes. RBO @ 11.2 reminded me. I don't know about the fragile bit, but an 'uncultured' man he certainly is.

        • alwyn 11.5.1.2

          Is that an example of not trying to answer the argument being made you simply insult the commenter?

          • Incognito 11.5.1.2.1

            If the shoe fits, Alwyn. Anyway, my comment was to Anne about Coltheman.

            FYI, I don’t actually have a problem with that so-called ‘leaked poll’, as it is seems not too far off from some others. I do have a problem, however, with the imbecilic way it was shared: first by a fragile twat on Twitter and second by you here on TS. As such, there was no reason to answer any argument by a commenter because it was a series of dick moves that simply looked like trolling. Do you think we’re stupid here to play into your silly little games?

  12. Alan 12

    interesting

  13. RP Mcmurphy 13

    well if you read the right wing franchised rags around the country printing rubbish from the likes of Audrey Young and Richarfd preeble EVERY DAY then it is no wonder . some of the left wing theoreticians who inhabit this sphere should get down and dirty and start writing to their local dailies instead of trying to score points off each other here!

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • 2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #29

    A listing of 32 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, July 14, 2024 thru Sat, July 20, 2024. Story of the week As reflected by preponderance of coverage, our Story of the Week is Project 2025. Until now traveling ...
    3 hours ago
  • I'd like to share what I did this weekend

    This weekend, a friend pointed out someone who said they’d like to read my posts, but didn’t want to pay. And my first reaction was sympathy.I’ve already told folks that if they can’t comfortably subscribe, and would like to read, I’d be happy to offer free subscriptions. I don’t want ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    11 hours ago
  • For the children – Why mere sentiment can be a misleading force in our lives, and lead to unex...

    National: The Party of ‘Law and Order’ IntroductionThis weekend, the Government formally kicked off one of their flagship policy programs: a military style boot camp that New Zealand has experimented with over the past 50 years. Cartoon credit: Guy BodyIt’s very popular with the National Party’s Law and Order image, ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    13 hours ago
  • A friend in uncertain times

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    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    17 hours ago
  • The Chaotic World of Male Diet Influencers

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    17 hours ago
  • It's Starting To Look A Lot Like… Y2K

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    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
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  • Bernard’s Saturday Soliloquy for the week to July 20

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  • Pharmac Director, Climate Change Commissioner, Health NZ Directors – The latest to quit this m...

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    2 days ago
  • Flooding Housing Policy

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  • A Voyage Among the Vandals: Accepted (Again!)

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  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Friday, July 19

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  • Weekly Roundup 19-July-2024

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    Greater AucklandBy Greater Auckland
    3 days ago
  • Weekly Climate Wrap: A market-led plan for failure

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    3 days ago
  • Trump’s Adopted Son.

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    3 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Friday, July 19

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  • The Hoon around the week to July 19

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    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #29 2024

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    3 days ago
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  • Gut Reactions.

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    3 days ago
  • Dodging Bullets.

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    4 days ago
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    Greater AucklandBy Guest Post
    4 days ago
  • Webworm Down Under Photos!

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    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    4 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Thursday, July 18

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    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Thursday, July 18

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    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • The politics of managed retreat

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    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    4 days ago
  • Some changes are coming

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    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    4 days ago
  • About fucking time

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    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Climate Change: False accounting and wishful thinking

    National released their draft 2026-2030 Emissions Reduction Plan today. The plan is required under the Zero Carbon Act, and must set out policies and strategies to meet the relevant emissions budget. Having cancelled all Labour's actually effective climate change policies and crashed the carbon price, National was always going to ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • The Enemies Of Sunshine And Space.

    Our Houses? The Urban Density debate is a horrible combination of intergenerational avarice and envy, fuelled by the grim certainty that none of the generations coming up after them will ever have it as good as the Boomers. To say that this situation rankles among those born after 1965 is to ...
    4 days ago
  • Still the 5 Eyes Achilles Heel?

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    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    4 days ago
  • Britain's Devastating Electoral Slip.

    Slip-Sliding Away: Labour may now enjoy a dominant position in Britain’s political landscape, but only by virtue of not being swallowed by it.THE BRITISH LABOUR PARTY’S “landslide victory” is nothing of the sort. As most people understand the term, a landslide election victory is one in which the incumbent government, or ...
    4 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on why right wingers think all governments (including their own) are incompetent

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    WerewolfBy lyndon
    4 days ago
  • The Kākā's Chorus for Wednesday, July 17

    TL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy this morning are:Chris Penk is set to roll back building standards for insulation that had only just been put in place, and which had been estimated to save 40% from power costs, after builders ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • Open Letter to Pharmac

    All this talk of getting oldIt's getting me down, my loveLike a cat in a bag, waiting to drownThis time I'm coming downAnd I hope you're thinking of meAs you lay down on your sideNow the drugs don't workThey just make you worse but I know I'll see your face ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago
  • A blanket of misinformation

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    Greater AucklandBy Connor Sharp
    5 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Wednesday, July 17

    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day to 7:00 am on Wednesday, July 17 are:Scoop: Government considers rolling back home insulation standards RNZ’s Eloise GibsonNews: Government plans tree-planting frenzy as report shows NZ no longer ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Wednesday, July 17

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    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • “Shhhh” – National's 3 Waters is loaded with higher costs and lays a path to ...

    This is a long, possibly technical, but very, very important read. I encourage you to take the time and spread your awareness.IntroductionIn 2022, then Labour Party Prime Minister Jacinda Adern expended significant political capital to protect New Zealand’s water assets from privatisation. She lost that battle, and Labour and the ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    5 days ago
  • Plugging a video channel: Dr Gilbz

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    5 days ago
  • Some “scrutiny” again

    Back in 2022, in its Open Government Partnership National Action Plan, the government promised to strengthen scrutiny of Official Information Act exemption clauses in legislation. Since then they've run a secret "consultation" on how to do that, with their preferred outcome being that agencies will consult the Ministry of Justice ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Crashing New Zealand's health system is not the way to prosperity, Prime Minister

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    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    5 days ago
  • Closer Than You Think: Ageing Boomers, Laurie & Les, Talk Politics.

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    5 days ago
  • Come on Darleen.

    Good morning all, time for a return to things domestic. After elections in the UK and France, Luxon gatecrashing Nato, and the attempted shooting of Trump, it’s probably about time we re-focus on local politics.Unless of course you’re Christopher Luxon and you’re so exhausted from all your schmoozing in Washington ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    6 days ago
  • How the Northwest was lost and may be won

    This is a guest post by Darren Davis. It originally appeared on his excellent blog, Adventures in Transitland, which we encourage you to check out. It is shared by kind permission. The Northwest has always been Auckland’s public transport Cinderella, rarely invited to the public funding ball. How did ...
    Greater AucklandBy Guest Post
    6 days ago
  • The Kākā's Chorus for Tuesday July 16

    Luxon has told a Financial Times’ correspondent he would openly call out China’s spying in future and does not fear economic retaliation from Aotearoa’s largest trading partner.File Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy on Tuesday, ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Tuesday, July 16

    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 6:00 am on Tuesday, July 16 are:PM Christopher Luxon has given a very hawkish interview to the Financial Times-$$$ correspondent in Washington, Demetri Sevastopulu, saying ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Tuesday, July 16

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    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago
  • The second crisis; assumption was the mother

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    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    6 days ago
  • Can we air condition our way out of extreme heat?

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    6 days ago
  • Review: The Zimiamvian Trilogy, by E.R. Eddison (1935-1958)

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    6 days ago
  • Media Link: AVFA on the Trump assassination attempt.

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    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    6 days ago
  • Law & Order: National Party 1, Police 0, Public -1

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    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    6 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on the Trump shooting and a potential hike in fees for visiting the doctor

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    WerewolfBy lyndon
    6 days ago
  • The Kākā's Chorus for Monday July 15

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    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    7 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Monday, July 15

    Photo by Jessica Loaiza on UnsplashTL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last three days to 9:00 am on Monday, July 15 are:Investigation: Immigration NZ refused to prosecute an alleged exploiter despite a mountain of evidence - ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    7 days ago
  • City Centre Rebuild: How Soon Is Now?

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    Greater AucklandBy Patrick Reynolds
    7 days ago
  • Peril, dismay, resolution

    This afternoon we rolled into Budapest to bring to a close our ride across Europe. We did 144 km yesterday, severe heat messages coming in from the weather app as we bounced along unformed Hungarian back roads and a road strip strewn with fallen trees from an overnight tornado. Somewhere ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    7 days ago
  • Bullet the Blue Sky

    In the locust windComes a rattle and humJacob wrestled the angelAnd the angel was overcomeYou plant a demon seedYou raise a flower of fireWe see them burnin' crossesSee the flames, higher and higherBullet the blue skyBullet the blue skyThe indelible images, the soundtrack of America. Guns, assassinations, where-were-you-when moments attached ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    7 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Monday, July 15

    TL;DR: The top six announcements, rulings, reports, surveys, statistics and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the three days to 6:00 am on Monday, July 23 are:University of Auckland researcher Ryan Greenaway-McGrevy published an analysis of the impact of Auckland's 2016 zoning reforms.BNZ's latest Performance ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    7 days ago
  • The Kākā’s diary for the week to July 23 and beyond

    TL;DR: The six key events to watch in Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy in the week to July 23 include:PM Christopher Luxon has returned from a trip to the United States and may hold a post-Cabinet news conference at 4:00 pm today.The BusinessNZ-BNZ PSI survey results for June will be released this ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    7 days ago
  • Was The Assassination Attempt Fake?

    Hi,It’s in incredible photo, and we’re going to be talking about it for a long time:Trump, triumphantly raising his hand in the air after being shot. Photo credit: Evan VucciYou can watch what happened on YouTube in real time, as a 20-year-old from Pennsylvania lets off a series of gunshots ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    7 days ago
  • 40 years ago, inside the crisis that made modern NZ

    It had rained all day in Auckland, and the Metro Theatre in Mangere was steamed up inside as more and more people arrived to celebrate what had once seemed impossible. Sir Robert Muldoon had lost the 1984 election. “Piggy” Muldoon was no more. Such was the desire to get rid ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    7 days ago
  • 2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #28

    A listing of 34 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, July 7, 2024 thru Sat, July 13, 2024. Story of the week It's still early summer in the Northern Hemisphere. The season comes as our first year of 1.5°C warming ...
    1 week ago
  • Unsurprising, but Trump shooting creates opportunity for a surprising response

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    PunditBy Tim Watkin
    1 week ago
  • Escalation in the States as Trump is shot and his allies capitalize on the moment

    Snapshot summary of the shooting in the States belowAnd a time to remember what Abraham Lincoln once said of the United States of America:We find ourselves in the peaceful possession of the fairest portion of the earth, as regards extent of territory, fertility of soil, and salubrity of climate. We ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    1 week ago
  • Bernie Sanders: Joe Biden for President

    I will do all that I can to see that President Biden is re-elected. Why? Despite my disagreements with him on particular issues, he has been the most effective president in the modern history of our country and is the strongest candidate to defeat Donald Trump — a demagogue and ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    1 week ago
  • Questions from God

    Have you invited God into your online life? Do you have answers for his questions? Did I just assume God’s pronouns?Before this goes any further, or gets too blasphemous, a word of explanation. When I say “God”, I don’t meant your god(s), if you have one/them. The God I speak ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • The politics of money and influence

    Did you know: Four days ago, the CEO of Warner Bros Discovery (WBD), David Zaslav, opined that he didn’t really care who won the US Presidential election, so long as they were M&A and business friendly. Please share my Substack so I can continue my work. Thank you and happy ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    1 week ago
  • Auckland & Transport Minister Simeon Brown's insanity

    Excuse me, but I just don’t feel like being polite today. What is going on with Simeon Brown? I mean, really? After spending valuable Ministerial time, focus, and government resources to overturn tailored speed limits in school and high fatality zones that *checks notes* reduces the risk of deaths and ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    1 week ago

  • Oceans and Fisheries Minister to Solomons

    Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones is travelling to the Solomon Islands tomorrow for meetings with his counterparts from around the Pacific supporting collective management of the region’s fisheries. The 23rd Pacific Islands Forum Fisheries Committee and the 5th Regional Fisheries Ministers’ Meeting in Honiara from 23 to 26 July ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Government launches Military Style Academy Pilot

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    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
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  • Nine priority bridge replacements to get underway

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