Open mike 13/04/2025

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, April 13th, 2025 - 47 comments
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For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose.

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Step up to the mike …

47 comments on “Open mike 13/04/2025 ”

  1. PsyclingLeft.Always 1
    13 April 2025 at 8:24 am

    $2,000,000,000 Accomodation landlords supplement ?

    Who benefits from the $2 billion of accommodation supplements paid out annually?

    IMO its never really helped the people who actually need it, ie Renters/ low income people et al…..this might confirm.

    but new research from the University of Auckland suggests it isn't doing much to help renters.

    Associate professor Edward Yiu and Dr William Cheung from the University of Auckland's Business School compared the rent-to-income ratio and mortgage-to-income ratio of Auckland households receiving the accommodation supplement with those who did not.

    As I personally thought..

    People who received the supplement spent more of their income on rent than those who did not get it.

    Yiu said there was some research that showed that landlords raised rents in response to accommodation supplements

    Living..hand to mouth. This must change.

    A single person earning $500 a week with no children, paying $450 a week in rent to live on the North Shore of Auckland could get up to $165 a week.

    CoreLogic data has shown that rent is at record levels compared to income. A recent update showed the median rent to median household income ratio was at 28 percent, compared to 26.4 percent five years ago and 25 percent ten years ago.

    Using data from 2019 through to 2023, they found that the supplement was not significantly improving affordability.

    Labour and other Left parties..wheres the hope? Transformational change? Something to make me, and thousands of other Voters interested?

    In 2023, households collecting the supplement paid $32,000 annually in mortgage repayments compared to $39,250 for homeowners in the same income bracket not receiving the supplement.

    He said that could indicate that support for homeownership was a better option than rental subsidies.

    "A shift toward policies that support transitions to homeownership, such as shared equity schemes or targeted mortgage support, may provide more sustainable affordability outcomes. A direct provision of public rental housing could also be a potential solution."

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/557985/who-benefits-from-the-2-billion-of-accommodation-supplements-paid-out-annually

    Reply
    • PsyclingLeft.Always 1.1
      13 April 2025 at 8:39 am

      This is symptomatic of an ever growing problem. Like an economic iceberg, the hidden danger : (

      Number of pensioners needing rent help nears 50,000

      Simplicity chief economist Shamubeel Eaqub

      "For people who are poor and old they get not just NZ Super but a myriad of other support services, as they should because they need it."

      But he said it was something that could be left out of modelling of the future cost of an ageing population.

      "We focus exclusively on health and NZ Super costs and not so much on the other housing-related costs, which are very expensive."

      He said when NZ Super was designed, people were more likely to own their own home and increasing home ownership was expected to diminish housing pressure as a source of old age poverty.

      "We are dealing with the opposite, an ageing population with more people reaching old age with a mortgage or no homes. The burden on social assistance from housing is going to increase.

      https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/543756/number-of-pensioners-needing-rent-help-nears-50-000

      In my long working life I have had interaction with many NZ Super receiving employees. Nat/right wing voters to a man (and woman) They also laughed about the Super…as their piss/overseas holiday money. All of them well off…flash cars, large houses etc; etc.

      IMO they didnt need a job and Super….

      Reply
      • weka 1.1.1
        13 April 2025 at 9:05 am

        can you please stop posting so many quotes? It's not just you, there's a lot of people treating TS like FB atm. We want to hear what you think, use quotes and links to back up what you want to say if you need to, or reference something, but it's not supposed to a substitute for your thinking or arguments.

        Reply
        • PsyclingLeft.Always 1.1.1.1
          13 April 2025 at 9:15 am

          Huh? I post what I think. The quotes are part of it. If its a problem to you personally…I will just stop. I have a lot of options..

          Reply
          • weka 1.1.1.1.1
            13 April 2025 at 9:30 am

            it's a problem for the site. We want to hear what commenters think, including you, we don't want lots of quoting from offsite overriding that. It's an increasing problem on TS across a number of commenters. We all do it from time to time, it's when it becomes the main way of commenting that it becomes a problem.

            Reply
      • Belladonna 1.1.2
        14 April 2025 at 10:01 am

        IMO they didnt need a job and Super….

        So do you think it should be one or the other? Therefore people in employment don't get Super?

        I think there would be a couple of consequences to this (apart from removing the 'fairness' of automatic qualifying age).
        There are people who use Super as a 'cushion' to ease themselves out of work. They live off the super for a couple of years, while they're using their salary to pay for 'large' bills (house maintenance, car, etc.) or to add to their savings as a buffer. They also often transition to lower hours (e.g. move to 30 hours/week for a couple of years, then down to 20 hours/week, etc.)

        People at 65 are more likely to quit work. You may not think that is an issue, however, we have a whole bunch of professionals (who are darn difficult to replace) who are at or nearing retirement age. And who we do *not* want to have quit at 65.

        Finally. The biggest danger with assigning 'qualifications' to a universal pension, is that the people who miss out (or who think they're at risk of missing out), stop voting for maintaining it. If you don't think that's a risk, then I don't think you've been paying attention to the worldwide political and economic situation.

        Reply
    • Kay 1.2
      13 April 2025 at 9:01 am

      You'll find nowadays that it's not just accommodation supplement needed. I can't offer a link (or evidence) but anecdotally, if you're a beneficiary in private rental, Temporary Additional Support is now part of the equation, the "temporary" part of that now being "permanent"- but still having to reapply for it every 3 months.

      My own experience- single on SLP in private rental. I get maximum AS and am maxxed out on TAS and disability. Without TAS I would be homeless, and even with all of those, my rent is currently 54.13% of my income. Not sure how, but that's dropped a little bit, it was 60% at one stage. (Must be that $5/week increase I got on April 1st?)

      Unfortunately, needing TAS to pay the rent means it's not available for anything else that's also vital, but the first priority is not to be homeless.

      Reply
      • weka 1.2.1
        13 April 2025 at 9:09 am

        yep. I read the piece yesterday and it offered zero solutions to the needs of low income people. It was all about stock unit economics. 'Maybe we can solve the problem with more social housing and more helping people to own their homes instead of rent'. Well yes, but in the meantime AS causes rent increases, as does the property market. The only way at the bigger picture level to stop that is to take houses out of the market permanently.

        I've heard beneficiary advocates say get rid of AS, but I've not seen an explanation of how that wouldn't push many beneficiaries into abject poverty.

        Reply
      • PsyclingLeft.Always 1.2.2
        13 April 2025 at 9:12 am

        the first priority is not to be homeless.

        And there it is. Its a terrible indictment on NZ today. IMO theres no how or even why we got here.Have thrown away the t shirt.

        Been there, and like you have struggled and battled. This has got to change.

        Left parties? Where are you? Culture wars are a distraction. Fight for Us !

        Before its too late…

        Reply
        • Ad 1.2.2.1
          13 April 2025 at 9:25 am

          My mum's side of the family generated volumes of grandchildren that frankly haven't done wonderfully.

          My mum's sister and hubbie bought a lifestyle block on the fringes of West Auckland, and did up sheds and garages to self contained standard.

          Last count its 3 couples and 4 families, all paying either rent or mortgage on the whole shambling thing.

          Closest we'll get to a marae-type arrangement.

          Reply
          • weka 1.2.2.1.1
            13 April 2025 at 9:34 am

            how did they get on with consent for multiple dwellings? or did they just bypass that?

            Reply
            • Ad 1.2.2.1.1.1
              13 April 2025 at 10:27 am

              Existing footprints + under minimum floor size "creatively".

              The point was agglomeration of family capital and need.

              Reply
              • weka …
                13 April 2025 at 10:59 am

                it's a very good idea, more people would be doing this but get stymied by regs that could be somewhat more flexible.

                Reply
    • KJT 1.3
      13 April 2025 at 9:06 am

      A direct provision of public rental housing could also be a potential solution."

      "Who woulda thunk it"?

      Reply
      • weka 1.3.1
        13 April 2025 at 9:12 am

        on its own it's necessary but not sufficient. If lots of social housing is built in the cities, and thus rental supply exceeds demand, those houses will become empty house investments and/or airbnbs. We need to address this at the whole system level, and that involves taking houses out of the market and essentially undermining the whole property as a way of saving for retirement scheme that NZ has been running for decades. That's a massive task pragmatically, but also politically.

        Reply
      • Ad 1.3.2
        13 April 2025 at 9:28 am

        What about a maximum rent/income multiple + tenure for public servants?

        Reply
        • alwyn 1.3.2.1
          13 April 2025 at 10:19 am

          What do you mean when you say "tenure for public servants" and why do they need special treatment?

          Reply
          • Ad 1.3.2.1.1
            13 April 2025 at 10:23 am

            Subsidy+tenure still occurs with NZDF. Remember railway houses? Coaltown houses?

            … to make public service long term attractive again.

            Reply
          • weka 1.3.2.1.2
            13 April 2025 at 10:25 am

            one value in tenure is that you retain institutional knowledge and memory. As opposed to currently, where it's common to be dealing with public servants who've only worked in the org for 6 months and don't know much.

            Another value would be attracting competent and skilled people into the PS workforce given the generally lower salary rate than if they worked privately.

            Reply
            • Ad 1.3.2.1.2.1
              13 April 2025 at 10:50 am

              Also build lasting local communities. With gardens.

              Reply
            • alwyn 1.3.2.1.2.2
              13 April 2025 at 11:00 am

              Your first paragraph seems to be talking about tenure in the sense that it is used for University jobs. The second though appears to be talking about it in the sense of having a permanent right to a state rental property.

              The first makes sense but would the second really matter to most people who would probably still prefer to buy rather than rent their homes.

              Ad seems to see it as applying to rental properties which I can't see as being particularly to people taking a job as a public servant in Wellington.

              I think your view that people are better paid in the private sector than in the state one is long out of date. I suggest you ask anyone who works as a practice nurse in a GP clinic whether they are better off that a nurse in a hospital. It is a long time since I was an employer but when I was we simply gave up talking to people in a Government job. They might have wanted to leave their existing job for the Government but they simply weren't prepared to accept the salary in a private firm. People I know who are still employed tell me it hasn't changed.

              Reply
            • Belladonna 1.3.2.1.2.3
              14 April 2025 at 2:28 pm

              The risk with this approach is that you lose your job and your house in one fell swoop.
              And, while we can all think it won't happen. We know from our own history (remember the 80s and 90s) that downsizing of public service jobs does indeed occur.

              Reply
              • Ad …
                14 April 2025 at 4:05 pm

                Those risks remain such as with the recent closure of Kawerau mill, best described as a private development with an awful lot of state help. There comes a point where even the state can't prop up an entire town by itself when the tides of an industry retreat.

                Yet for every identified risk, the rewards are greater.

                You can still check out the durable masterplanned area in Palmerston North's Savage Crescent.

                https://www.stuff.co.nz/manawatu-standard/news/300654055/back-issues-palmerston-norths-model-suburb-of-state-housing

                Then of course there's the big ones of the last 15 years of which Hobsonville is the largest, but there are multiple that pushed on during the Ardern years. That was built on top of the Hobsonville airbase including the old Defence housing from the 1910s to the 1950s.

                The most recent strong tie between manufacturing and new town would be Ohinewai for Sleepyhead north of Huntly.

                Reply
                • Drowsy M. Kram …
                  14 April 2025 at 4:33 pm

                  In 2017, my sister & brother-in-law bought a 2-bedroom house in Savage Cres for their retirement, & they love it. This year's project – solar panels.

                  Reply
                  • Ad …
                    14 April 2025 at 6:03 pm

                    So good to hear that depth of legacy remaining and cared for.

                    For me Palmerston North remains New Zealand's most coherent, most liveable small city. The civic square, the mana whenua partnerships, the small but very serviceable public institutions, the flat layout that encourages cycling, even rail to Wellington …

                    … it just accelerated into a strong regional centre in the 1940s and just continues.

                    Reply
                • Belladonna …
                  16 April 2025 at 9:27 am

                  The issue for me, isn't so much that the whole plant or organization closes, and everyone has to leave (we've seen this multiple times in NZ, when freezing works, mills and factories close down); but rather with accommodation which is tied to your job. If you lose your job (redundancies can happen without resulting in the whole operation being closed – see Wellington civil service for current examples) – you also lose your house.

                  The PN example you give appears to be State housing – not tied to being employed in the civil service. The Hobsonville development was both state housing and private housing – but not connected to employement in any way.Which was the concept being explored in the OP.

                  And the Ohinewai development has been criticized for precisely the reasons I've give. A company town gives the company a whole lot of power over the outside-work lives of its employees. It may be a good idea – but there's a whole lot of power imbalance, with the potential for abuse.

                  Reply
    • Psycho Milt 1.4
      13 April 2025 at 9:37 am

      It's part of a general unwillingness of either National or Labour governments to do anything about the causes of problems rather than just paper over the cracks.

      "Oh, destroying the union movement has meant real wages have fallen and people are needing to work two jobs to survive? Well, there's no way we're going to do anything to make real wages reflect productivity increases, so let's just bung workers some cash from taxes and call it "Working for Families."

      "Oh, our incentivising property speculation via the tax system is causing a property bubble and making rents unaffordable? Well, middle-class voters will punish us if we spoil their property Ponzi scheme, so let's just bung renters some cash from taxes and call it "Accommodation Supplement."

      It's a very depressing way to run a country, and it has huge opportunity costs for all the things you could otherwise be doing with that tax money.

      Reply
      • weka 1.4.1
        13 April 2025 at 9:55 am

        if we want to get even more depressed. Earlier on in the Auckland housing crisis I had a few arguments on twitter with lefties who thought the solution was for Aucklanders to move to the provinces. Grow the provinces for economic stimulus! (migration to provinces Good, but no, you're not allowed to talk about migration into Auckland from outside the country bigot).

        I pointed out that this would spread the housing crisis to the provinces as cashed up Aucklanders, rich from their property boom, would outbid existing locals, who also were starting to find housing tight, and this would push the property boom raising house prices and rents. I was laughed at. It's exactly what happened. Along with airbnbs, and why bother renting at all property owners.

        Meanwhile, WINZ sort the country into 4 categories that determine how much AS you can get. It's meant to make it more fair so that people living in high rent areas can get more AS. But historically it's been horrendously out of date. The latest I can find is from 2017,

        https://www.msd.govt.nz/about-msd-and-our-work/newsroom/2017/budget-2017/new-regions.html

        I'm sure that system holds a lid on even worse landlord rorting the AS system, but it's beneficiaries are that are caught in the pinch.

        Reply
        • Ad 1.4.1.1
          13 April 2025 at 10:52 am

          Thames has done well out of it. Even Paeroa has new developments.

          Reply
          • weka 1.4.1.1.1
            13 April 2025 at 10:58 am

            Sure. No-one said perpetual growth doesn't bring good things. Still lots of poor people that can't afford a decent life in large part thanks to the housing crisis.

            Reply
          • Macro 1.4.1.1.2
            13 April 2025 at 1:42 pm

            Even Paeroa has new developments

            Including the old race course – now being turned into more housing (I suspect another retirement village).

            Reply
        • Psycho Milt 1.4.1.2
          13 April 2025 at 12:41 pm

          It's exactly what happened alright. My wife worked in Rotorua 2014 – 2021 so we bought a house there. It had doubled in value by the time she moved back to PN, as the ripple effect of people moving outwards from Auckland pushed the property bubble further into the provinces. By 2020, even houses in PN were becoming unaffordable for people moving here.

          Reply
    • bwaghorn 1.5
      13 April 2025 at 9:47 am

      It's a direct subsidie to the banks and land lords, one of the biggest drivers if housing unaffordabilty

      Reply
    • SPC 1.6
      13 April 2025 at 10:25 am

      Because banks make money financing home ownership (to people to reside in or rent out), there will be criticism of whatever government does.

      Whether support to the haves to own, or to the have nots to be dependent on private landlords (rather than public housing).

      Food in schools gets around some of that.

      As does publicly funded health and dental (at least a free annual check up based on need) care.

      And schools that do not charge fees.

      And income support to the non working partner (as well as WFF tax credits to those with children).

      A 20 year bright-line test (backdated to 2018) to assist with income related state/social housing to some and AS to others in the private sector market is at least balance.

      As is a 5% stamp duty on homes over $2m to afford assistance to people to raise a deposit for a house purchase.

      Reply
  2. SPC 2
    13 April 2025 at 9:33 am

    Something overlooked since 2023, because the C of C bro team is in office.

    An Auckland gynaecologist says New Zealand urgently needs to overhaul how it diagnoses and treats a debilitating condition that affects at least one in ten Kiwi women, but often goes undetected or dismissed.

    Dr Michael Wynn-Williams told Saturday Morning's Susie Ferguson that when it comes to endometriosis, New Zealand's healthcare system is "standing still" – especially when compared to the progress made across the Tasman.

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/558006/we-need-to-take-action-health-experts-urge-endometriosis-reform

    Labour Manifesto 2023

    • Support women’s health through free cervical screening and implementing the women’s health strategy.

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/1LpGWVJZ8-7AWL-tiFD8aAdD3e0Gxa6uC/view

    https://www.health.govt.nz/system/files/2023-07/womens-health-strategy-oct23.pdf

    Reply
  3. alwyn 3
    13 April 2025 at 11:12 am

    Well, well.

    Trump is planning to drop the tariffs from things like laptops and smartphones made in China from the tariff regime.

    "Smartphone reprieve: The Trump administration published a rule late Friday night that appeared to exempt smartphones, computers, semiconductors and other electronics from most of the president’s punishing tariffs on China, giving tech companies like Apple and Dell a break from levies that threatened to upend their businesses and increase prices for consumers."

    From the New York times today

    I wonder whether this comes from his fear of the kickback from 120 million or so iphone owners in the US who may not be able to afford to replace them. Alternatively has Apple offered a very large "donation" to a "Trump favoured organisation" in return for the tariffs being scrapped?

    Reply
    • SPC 3.1
      13 April 2025 at 11:26 am

      The SAFE Act makes it harder to vote.

      Only 50% have a passport. The woman has to have a birth certificate and also marriage license for ID.

      If women are motivated to get a passport, so they can buy a laptop or Apple phone at half price in Canada or Mexico, it will mean they do not pay for the tax cuts of the broligarchs and they can vote for the Democratic ticket more easily.

      Reply
    • Tiger Mountain 3.2
      13 April 2025 at 11:38 am

      Well, Apple CEO Tim Cook is gay, and not known for being an obvious TrumpFather fan, he was certainly not in the ‘tech bro’ front row with Bezos, Zuckerberg and Musk-but who knows yet about donations.

      Reply
    • joe90 3.3
      13 April 2025 at 12:53 pm

      his fear of the kickback

      Indeed. He bottled it.

      Bank of America Securities analyst Wamsi Mohan said in a Thursday note that the iPhone 16 Pro, which is currently priced at $1,199, could increase 25% based on labor costs alone. That would make it a roughly $1,500 device.

      Wedbush’s Dan Ives pegged $3,500 as the U.S. iPhone’s price shortly after last week’s tariff announcement, estimating that Apple would need to spend $30 billion over three years to move 10% of its supply chain to the U.S.

      https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/11/heres-how-much-a-made-in-the-usa-iphone-would-cost.html

      Reply
  4. SPC 4
    13 April 2025 at 11:32 am

    Russia intent on erasure of Ukrainian identity in occupied areas.

    Thus ends any pretence of being there for ethnic Russians, it's just a land grab because of … changing excuse.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c93gy91y43vo

    Reply
  5. SPC 5
    13 April 2025 at 12:39 pm

    Peters is in Honolulu speaking to the East-West Centre, 22 hours before travels to us here.

    He said

    "This, coupled with the hyperactive social media age we live in, can generate an urge to react too quickly and too stridently. To set out absolute principles to defend. To draw battle lines. To pick sides. To form teams. To fight."

    Winston Peters, in 2021, after the party was not returned to parliament

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300337617/winston-peters-attacks-labour-cancel-culture-and-te-reo-usage-in-comeback-speech

    Peters, state of the nation speech, 2025.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/watch-live-winston-peters-delivers-state-of-the-nation-speech/FFB6NQNMNVGMBJ55SV3KJXBCAY/

    In the decades since, Peters said we "painstakingly [built] an international order based on dialogue, compromise, diplomacy and trust", preferring "jaw, jaw to war, war".

    And it included the WTO, which the US has determined on undermining in recent years and now other organisations they are to withdraw funding from.

    He said it was in New Zealand's interests, as a small country, to be "cautious, to be modest, to be pragmatic, and to be practical. To wait for the dust to settle before making choices we may later regret

    He wants us to consider withdrawal from the Paris Accord, this while Europe is looking at carbon tariffs.

    A nation declares tariffs on all other nations and he does not support those nations talking with each other about it.

    Why?

    But close friends do not need to be, and should not be, confrontational and rude with one another, as New Zealand sometimes was towards the United States in the mid to late 1980s

    Oh, so he does not want us to confront the USA over its behaviour. Because to challenge the alpha, is being rude to a superior?

    Such is the way of the diplomat, not being noticed at all, except as a pacifyer of reaction to perfidy – so as to maintain relationships. The useful side-kick managing down consequences to the drunk of another bender. The enabler.

    Hopefully the result will be worth it, 2 rail enabled ferries and waiting out making a decision on Pillar 2 till after Trump leaves office.

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/558027/winston-peters-says-talk-of-trade-war-is-hysterical-short-sighted

    Reply
  6. Stephen D 6
    13 April 2025 at 2:37 pm

    https://open.substack.com/pub/weareunderused/p/banks-lies-and-government-favors?r=aax0&utm_medium=ios

    This CoC really is the pocket of big business. Screw the voting public, they only work for their donors.

    Reply
  7. joe90 7
    13 April 2025 at 7:13 pm

    Not saying we will but we will most likely fry.

    https://xcancel.com/ClimateBen/status/1910535665684455552

    Earth's energy imbalance (EEI)

    Earth's energy budget (in W/m2) determines the climate. It is the balance of incoming and outgoing radiation and can be measured by satellites. The Earth's energy imbalance is the "net absorbed" energy amount and grew from +0.6 W/m2 (2009 est.[8]) to above +1.0 W/m2 in 2019.[23]

    See also: Radiative forcing

    The Earth's energy imbalance (EEI) is defined as "the persistent and positive (downward) net top of atmosphere energy flux associated with greenhouse gas forcing of the climate system".[2]: 2227 

    If Earth's incoming energy flux (ASR) is larger or smaller than the outgoing energy flux (OLR), then the planet will gain (warm) or lose (cool) net heat energy in accordance with the law of energy conservation:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth%27s_energy_budget#Earth's_energy_imbalance_(EEI)

    Reply
  8. SPC 8
    14 April 2025 at 12:14 am

    The way access to money allows CG to be made. And we allow this to be tax free.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/home-property/360637585/ive-made-10-million-property-and-im-still-buying

    Reply

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