web analytics

Open mike 14/06/2025

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, June 14th, 2025 - 52 comments
Categories: open mike - Tags:


Open mike is your post.

For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose.

The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).

Step up to the mike …

52 comments on “Open mike 14/06/2025 ”

  • Comments are now closed

  1. Todays Posts 1
    14 June 2025 at 6:00 am

    Today's Posts (updated through the day):

  2. Ad 2
    14 June 2025 at 8:25 am

    So now presumably Iran's next move is to fully withdraw from any proposed nuclear arms restraint Treaty, and just go buy them off the rack from Russia.

    No matter the military outcome over the next fortnight, President Trump is now fully in the frame to demonstrate any will to decrease the global threat of nuclear arms proliferation.

    And regrettably, no one else can do it.

    • SPC 2.1
      14 June 2025 at 8:28 am

      The chance of Russia providing nuclear weapons to Iran is zero.

      The risk has always been North Korea providing assistance.

      Iran has already enriched uranium to weapons grade, which is why the latest IAEA report said it was no longer in compliance.

      • Nic the NZer 2.1.1
        14 June 2025 at 9:13 am

        The IAEA report didn't go as far as to claim that Iran has weapons grade uranium definitively. That is a possibility and there appears to be diverted fuel according to the report.

        Israel and the US have always said they would act before that possibility happened and that their estimate was Iran was on that path.

        Iran will now pursue a domestically produced nuclear weapon for certain. They are demonstrating their delivery capability to Israel already.

      • Maurice 2.1.2
        14 June 2025 at 9:25 am

        A far greater danger than nuclear bombs is the scattering of weapons grade uranium across the region. No confirmed reports of radioactive or chemical leaks at the moment but Uranium is a much more dangerous heavy metal than Lead.

        One wonders if an increasingly desperate Iran may even contempale sending 'dirty' bombs to Isreal on their missiles. Just scattering radio active Uranium.

        • aj 2.1.2.1
          14 June 2025 at 9:31 am

          That would be the beginning of the end.

        • SPC 2.1.2.2
          14 June 2025 at 9:39 am

          That would be a little inconsistent with liberating the Palestinians from the West Bank to the sea.

        • Ad 2.1.2.3
          14 June 2025 at 1:00 pm

          Weirdly I dreamt last night that Israel actually did that. But then The Iranian reverse would be worse for a country not much bigger than Hamilton to Kaitaia,

      • Ad 2.1.3
        14 June 2025 at 1:05 pm

        Really?

        The Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant, the first in the Middle East, has been a symbol of Russia’s nuclear cooperation with the Islamic Republic. Russia completed the plant’s first site in 2011, building on a German project that began in the 1970s but was abandoned after the 1979 Iranian revolution. Russia and Iran have discussed building a second facility, Bushehr 2, but progress has been slowed by sanctions and other geopolitical issues.

        Russia is also responsible for the construction of the Sirik nuclear power plant, which Iran is trying to get underway.

        Also Russian and Iran signed a comprehensive strategic agreement that included cooperation on civilian nuclear production.

        Israel is simply incentivising Iran to forge an ever-stronger axis between Russia and Iran. That is terrible.

        • SPC 2.1.3.1
          14 June 2025 at 1:27 pm

          Yeah.

          As non-nuclear weapons proliferation is a thing.

          The strong axis already exists.

          • Ad 2.1.3.1.1
            14 June 2025 at 1:45 pm

            It would be a very simple and devastating lever for Russia to propose holding off supplying Iran with even more nuclear technology towards a full weapon for Iran, in exchange for the United States withdrawing support for Ukraine.

            Background to the diplomatic back-and-forth of Russia seeking to insert itself as a lever here:

            https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/adversary-entente-task-force-update-june-11-2025

            • SPC 2.1.3.1.1.1
              14 June 2025 at 1:51 pm

              Russia (and Iran) say they are working together for nuclear power only, not weaponry.

              The US is no longer supporting Ukraine, so has lost leverage.

              While Russia needs Iranian drones, it has little leverage on Iran. Thus the latest IAEA report (Iran is going ahead on a path that makes Russia look bad).

              • Ad …
                14 June 2025 at 1:59 pm

                There is no reason to believe Russia and Iran have a benign civilian assistance programme.

                THe US has a reduction not a deletion of support for Ukraine.

                The US President desperately wants to end the war and Hegseth has signalled there will be a reduction in direct military assistance, though we don't yet know how much:

                https://kyivindependent.com/us-to-cut-military-aid-to-ukraine-hegseth-says/

                But US State Department is still neck deep supporting Ukraine:

                https://2021-2025.state.gov/united-with-ukraine/

                The US is still very much supportive of Ukraine; it's just not towards an eternal war.

                • SPC …
                  14 June 2025 at 2:05 pm

                  They diverted 20,000 anti-Shahed drone missiles to the ME, leaving Ukraine vulnerable to the attacks (Russia escalated accordingly).

                  We now know why.

                  The State Department linked is dated Jan 15.

              • Ad …
                14 June 2025 at 2:05 pm

                Just to argue against myself for a moment, if Iran is really damaged by ongoing Israeli attacks and Russia doesn't step in to support Iran in response (despite the fresh strategic parthersnip signed this January), Russia is shown to be far weaker than when it was kicked out of Syria last year.

                Russia would then come out of this very badly.

                • SPC …
                  14 June 2025 at 2:10 pm

                  despite the fresh strategic partnership signed this January

                  Russia wanted to import and also make its own Shahed drones.

                  It is certainly an attack while Iran is isolated and Russia stretched in capacity.

    • ianmac 2.2
      14 June 2025 at 9:59 am

      There used to be a Treaty with Iran but didn't Trump trash it in his first term of office? Reap what you sow.

  3. SPC 3
    14 June 2025 at 9:42 am

    A statement in the UN

    the US are "complicit" after providing "aid and assistance" for the crimes.

    "We will not forget that our people lost their lives as a result of the Israeli attacks with American weapons"

    All without any apparent awareness of the Iranian Shahed drones sent to Russia being used on the cities of Ukraine.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c93ydeqyq71t?post=asset%3A3fcb3e83-78a8-4d9c-9ec3-c28147533b74#post

  4. Francesca 4
    14 June 2025 at 10:05 am

    So would Russia also be justified in bombing the capitals of Europe/US/UK because of the massive weapon transfers to Ukraine and attacks on the cities of Russia using such foreign supplied weapons?

    Sauce for the goose .

    • SPC 4.1
      14 June 2025 at 10:09 am

      If only, Russia was not itself an arms supplier.

      If only, it had not attacked Ukraine.

    • Psycho Milt 4.2
      14 June 2025 at 11:17 am

      If European countries had spent 50 years announcing their intent to wipe Russia from the face of the Earth and deal with ethnic Russians as the source of the world's evil, Russians would be well advised to prevent European countries developing nuclear weapons, yes. But the reasons why your analogy is false are multiple and obvious.

  5. Francesca 5
    14 June 2025 at 11:07 am

    yes the old chicken and egg story

    If only…Kiev had not attacked the citizenry of the Donbas when it mounted its anti terrorism operation in 2014

    If only NATO had not advanced ever eastward

    If only Russia's desire for dialogue at the Munich security conference since at least 2007

    had been heeded

    What Israel has done is indefensible and dangerous but par for the course as it continues the Mafia like deal it has going with the US, assassinations, mass killings of innocent civilians, unprovoked attacks , general reckless mayhem and murder

    This is the world we now live in .Diplomacy is dead , raw killing power is king.Well done!

    After all whats a few "stirred up Muslims?"…thanks Brezinski , your motto lives on and makes the world even more unliveable

    • SPC 5.1
      14 June 2025 at 11:22 am

      Nations sought membership of NATO because Russia arrived in Eastern Europe in 1945 and would not leave for over 40 years.

      If only Russia had not bombed Dagestan and Grozny.

      • Obtrectator 5.1.1
        14 June 2025 at 4:56 pm

        How far back shall we go? If only Britain had stayed out of World War I (which it couldn't make any difference to, in the initial stages) and instead helped broker an early peace once the inevitable stalemate had developed by September 1914 ….

        • SPC 5.1.1.1
          14 June 2025 at 5:18 pm

          My point was that no one got involved in Russia (Dagestan and Grozny) as it was an internal matter. As was the Donbas (1914 and 2022)*.

          So we know why Sweden and Finland joined NATO recently.

  6. SPC 6
    14 June 2025 at 11:24 am

    Canada not content with beating the USA in ice hockey is now taking world records off American swimmers.

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/sport/564119/canada-s-teen-swimming-sensation-summer-mcintosh-looks-ahead-to-worlds-after-record-week

  7. Incognito 7
    14 June 2025 at 11:53 am

    We are doing it all wrong, according to Rod McNaughton, although it’s not clear who the “we” are in his opinion piece: https://newsroom.co.nz/2025/06/14/nzs-economy-is-not-underperforming-by-accident/.

    Everybody knows that we have a productivity problem in NZ and for too long a time; we’ve been sliding backwards in the world of economics.

    For decades, reports from the Treasury, the Productivity Commission, the OECD and others have told a consistent story: our economy grows by adding more people and more hours, not by producing more value per hour worked. But the International Monetary Fund’s April report, released online this week, New Zealand’s Productivity Challenge, offers a sharper and more unsettling perspective. It suggests we are not just underperforming but actively backing the wrong kinds of firms.

    […] While those countries have lifted productivity through sustained investment in innovation-led sectors, New Zealand has relied more heavily on labour force expansion and inward migration.

    Yes, the cheap & easy (aka lazy) route that mainly props up the domestic economy and drives up demand for housing & roading, etcetera – you get the picture: big is good and more is more.

    More importantly, over 40 percent of these fast-growing firms were in finance and real estate. […] This is a problem because while finance and real estate play important roles in any economy, they are not typically the source of the productivity gains and knowledge spillovers that drive long-run growth.

    NZ is a FIRE economy, as Jane Kelsey wrote in her book. BTW, she has been a leading critic of the Regulatory Standards Bill and its many mutations for many years.

    While I was reading this I was thinking ‘here we go again’ because I felt that the piece failed to address the elephant in the room that is the role of government in shaping & growing the economy. Fortunately, the second-to-last paragraph, almost as an after-thought for the sake of completeness but without much analysis, points the finger straight at government.

    What remains underdeveloped is a strategic reorientation of policy to shift the balance of support from sectors that grow by leveraging existing assets to those that generate new knowledge and compete internationally. This will require more than adjusting policy levers. It will mean rethinking the logic currently governing capital allocation, risk assessment, and innovation policy, including government investment in basic research. [my italics]

    This cannot be stressed enough, particularly because the Coalition doesn’t want to see it, hear it, and know about it, as they want a sugar rush from overseas investors without having to lift a finger (and only the middle one to those pesky ‘worthies’).

    • SPC 7.1
      14 June 2025 at 11:59 am

      T e l l i t t o Rod Oram. It's his commentary.

    • Ad 7.2
      14 June 2025 at 12:57 pm

      The OECD report itself, rather than the local academic commentary, shows that this government is indeed doing already what this report requests.

      https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/selected-issues-papers/Issues/2025/06/09/New-Zealand-s-Productivity-Challenge-New-Zealand-567560

      The recommendations start on p. 19.

      The OECD recommends a lot more flexibility with Kiwisaver, and compulsion, and a higher saving rate. Well two of those points are underway after the last budget.

      National haven't fronted up to support public research and development. No doubt any future government could do that. Great opportunity for a common Labour+Green policy platform to come out on that, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

      "Overall, public research, R&D tax incentives, and research grants are consistently found to be the most cost-effective tools to boost innovation (IMF, 2024)."

      The OECD recommends much greater investment access to land. Well you know what that means. It's one of the few policy areas Labour and NZF actually agree on.

      Also to get to the money shot from the OECD report:

      "An ambitious structural reform agenda is already underway in New Zealand to tackle the productivity challenge."

      In reality the government policy settings for our economy amount to one word: MORE.

      The Deloitte Fast 50 on last count had 4 real estate companies in its list, and no insurance companies:

      https://www.deloitte.com/content/dam/assets-zone1/nz/en/docs/services/deloitte-private/nz-fast50-index-2023.pdf

        • Ad 7.2.1.1
          14 June 2025 at 1:50 pm

          Our most productive sectors are mining, electricity, gas, and water and wastewater services.

          https://rep.infometrics.co.nz/new-zealand/productivity/industry-productivity

          For productivity I would prefer more New Zealand goldsmith jewellers to gold miners. But what we have is a meeting in Wanaka this week to understand that devastatingly big gold mine about to take over the Tarras-Bendigo ranges.

          • SPC 7.2.1.1.1
            14 June 2025 at 2:45 pm

            The irony is that the sectors that seem productive, output per worker, do not require productivity from their workers.

            Resource based, or historic investment/capital intensive sectors.

            • Ad 7.2.1.1.1.1
              14 June 2025 at 3:11 pm

              Oh don't even get me started. I work in a really low-productivity sector, large scale infrastructure projects. We pay well but the health and safety risks are high, and productivity via roboticsation is low.

              Our tourism industry is notoriously low productivity and low wage, and the current focus on volume over value doesn't help.

              Some for much of our entire agricultural sector, with stellar exceptions that are doing it very hard.

              It was `14 years ago that Sir Paul Callaghan did this amazing presentation on what New Zealand could aspire to, and it's still to me a siren for improvement:

      • SPC 7.2.2
        14 June 2025 at 1:48 pm

        Investment accessing land (data centres require water and energy). Or Grow Out of urban centres – surely the market will drive that internally?

        It is not really research and development and investment in productivity.

        • Ad 7.2.2.1
          14 June 2025 at 1:52 pm

          I took the OECD report to mean access = "foreign ownership"

          • SPC 7.2.2.1.1
            14 June 2025 at 2:17 pm

            Data centres is about it, in so far as land based investment.

            Otherwise its foreigners doing rental property investment in urban centres, or owning scarce coastal land.

            The government does want to lease back buildings built on locally owned health and education sector land.

            It does not grow the economy though.

            • Ad 7.2.2.1.1.1
              14 June 2025 at 2:33 pm

              Agree and hopefully in a future Labour-led govenrment NZF can retain that house purchase ban as well.

  8. SPC 8
    14 June 2025 at 12:59 pm

    The ICC justly decides in favour of South Africa.

    Smith dislocates finger dropping Buvuma on 2 in the Test Championship final.

    Cameron grasshopper Green 4 and 0.

    The unbroken partnership with Markram is now at 143 runs.

    Only 69 more rums to victory.

    https://www.bbc.com/sport/cricket/scorecard/e-223452

  9. Dennis Frank 9
    14 June 2025 at 1:29 pm

    Unherd have this useful take on Starmer: https://unherd.com/2025/06/can-keir-starmer-stop-reform/

    Contra accusations that Starmer lacks a clear direction, there have long been signs that, behind his tepid personality, he has embraced a historic mission of sorts. His purpose is to defend the remnants of Britain’s Blairite settlement from the on-going revolt against elites, and in favour of national sovereignty. Starmer has filled his government with New Labour figures, and is himself wedded to the technocratic liberalism of the New Labour era which nurtured his political career.

    He wants to conform to supranational legal structures, empower Britain’s institutions to enforce doctrines of equality and rights, and generally maintain the rule of progressive lawyers and officials. In order to protect these ideals, he has to see off the forces hostile to them.

    The Reform surge to parity with the establishment left & right has forced Starmer into doing a counter-offensive defense. He correctly sees that the alienated third of the electorate are using Reform to clobber the left and right, so he's been forced to use the classic leftist method of copying the right, but copying the far-right rather than the Tories, which is novel. Tactically necessary, yet clever enough that it ought to work.

    in the northeast of England, you can drive for an hour through seats where Reform came second to Labour… the Government’s response would essentially have three strands…

    Using a triad goes back to the old stone age (hunter/spear/prey) so it ought to work.

    Much of Reform’s popularity stems from the simple assertion, made salient by globalisation and particularly immigration, that citizenship requires boundaries to be meaningful.

    Clearly the metapattern driving politics in the US, Europe and Britain in recent years. Yet this could be just a phase, driven by oldies. Globalisation theory suggests that national boundaries are yielding to a sense of `we're all in this together'. Holding that line against the barbarians is a stance that could hinge on a generational shift.

    • Incognito 9.1
      14 June 2025 at 1:59 pm

      You’re leaving anyone who reads your commentary with a puzzling question and doubt what is “useful” about the linked piece. You could have turned on your brain cells and provided a striking comparison to the situation in NZ where there are many parallels that happen to be shared by the main political parties here. Alas, you’re prone to revert to numerology if it’s not socks and trivial generalisations that make most of your comments fastidiously boring brain farts.

    • Ad 9.2
      14 June 2025 at 2:39 pm

      PM Starmer, like our own government, has limited control over world events that are actively suppressing global economic growth. That's the same for Luxon and the same for Ardern's mess as well.

      Trade uncertainty with Europe has only recently been clarified. The United States trade tariff moves are turning the UK's second largest economic partner into a hellhole for British exports and British industrial expansion into the US.

      So far as I can see Starmer is doing everything he possibly can to sustain a broad Labour vote share, and Reform are essentially just eating up the Conservatives. The polls are not yet material for another 4 years and there's plenty of life ieft in this Labor government yet.

      • Dennis Frank 9.2.1
        14 June 2025 at 2:56 pm

        I agree with your overview. The journo read the local elections as ringing the alarm bells and thus produced a reactive thesis on that basis. Seemed a feasible scenario for triggering Starmer's pro-active response. Yet it would be sensible for Starmer to use such tactics as part of a strategy to lift Labour back up above the current 3-way parity – to ensure that it doesn't embed in the minds of most voters (set like concrete).

  10. Ad 10
    14 June 2025 at 2:47 pm

    Hope all the landlords out there have got all their rentals up to date to fully comply with the Healthy Homes standard by July. No excuses people.

    • gsays 10.1
      15 June 2025 at 8:07 am

      Yep, I can imagine the flogging the wet bus ticket will get with all the non compliant landlords.

      Especially wielded by the "sorted" Master Landlord Luxon in a "relaxed" manner.

      Not to worry, those Mom and Pop landlords are harmless, locking others off the property ladder, whilst feathering their own nests.

  11. Dennis Frank 11
    14 June 2025 at 3:02 pm

    Netanyahoo is using a triad in this photo here: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/after-years-waiting-israels-netanyahu-finally-makes-his-move-iran-2025-06-13/

    Some readers will be unable to see it without operating instructions, so what you do is gaze at the sign he's holding up, fixate on that black symbol of the Iran bomb on white background, then see the horizontal lines demarcating the 3 stages. It's not as difficult as you may think. To help you get it, he's even labelled those 3 stages! Go figure.

  12. Muttonbird 12
    14 June 2025 at 8:31 pm

    Trump urges talks 'before there is nothing left'

    What sort of leadership and diplomacy is this? It's Trump, the US, and Israel who are threatening the eradication of a people, not Iran.

    https://www.1news.co.nz/2025/06/14/latest-trump-urges-iran-into-talks-before-theres-nothing-left/

  13. Muttonbird 13
    14 June 2025 at 8:44 pm

    How is missile defence systems in the middle of CBD Tel Aviv not the same as Hamas in a tunnel under a hospital?

  14. Muttonbird 14
    14 June 2025 at 9:03 pm

    – Israeli security forces inspect destroyed residential buildings that were hit by a missile fired from Iran, in Ramat Gan. (Source: Associated Press)

    Iran's (p)articipation in upcoming US talks 'still unclear', according to state media

    Iran has yet to make a decision on whether it will attend talks with the United States on Sunday, its foreign ministry spokesperson was cited as saying in state-affiliated media.

    Esmail Baghaei said the US’ support for Israel has rendered negotiations “meaningless".

    “It is not possible for you to simultaneously claim to be negotiating and talking to reach an understanding on an issue, while at the same time … allowing a racist regime to violate the territorial integrity of [Iran],” Baghaei said, according to Nour News.

    White House officials continue to argue US President Donald Trump is committed to salvaging the nuclear talks, the sixth round of which was due in the Omani capital Muscat on Sunday.

    Very well said.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/air-raid-sirens-sound-as-iran-launches-missiles-at-israel/C4S32HYT4BF5PMJ47QMJBAHINY/

  15. Muttonbird 15
    14 June 2025 at 9:33 pm

    White woman ‘goes missing’ for about 15 hours and The Herald is all over it. Good to see they are policing where it counts.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/missing-woman-becky-davies-last-seen-at-1am-with-five-men-near-britomart-auckland/72TCNJTY5ZETHDH4U6MNQJSTLQ/