Open mike 14/10/2021

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, October 14th, 2021 - 112 comments
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112 comments on “Open mike 14/10/2021 ”

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  1. Gezza 1
    14 October 2021 at 6:35 am

    11th March 2018, 7.20 am.

    Thump, thump, thump, on my roof. What the hell?


    Oh. “Morning Aspen. God, you’re a character!” 😀

    https://i.imgur.com/nQbokDe.gif

  2. Dennis Frank 2
    14 October 2021 at 7:04 am

    A global push for sharp cuts in methane emissions will be a major feature of the UN’s COP26 climate negotiations beginning in Glasgow in three weeks’ time. This will put a harsh spotlight on New Zealand

    https://www.newsroom.co.nz/the-harsh-climate-truth-on-methane

    Rod Oram anticipates an increasing focus on methane – a political shift consequent of perceptions of increasing urgency. BAU advocates will feel even more paranoid. Having pointed out here a couple of years ago that methane breaks down into CO2, I've been mystified by the long-standing tendency to discount it, but I suppose that's just another symptom of climate change inducing mass irrationality & hysteria.

    Kennedy Graham, a former NZ diplomat, UN official and Green Party MP, notes in his recent research paper for Victoria University’s Institute for Governance and Policy Studies…

    “There is no valid reason to avoid identifying New Zealand’s 2050 Target in terms of carbon dioxide equivalent. There is an associated lack of clarity over the 2050 Target, discernible in the media and even in official statements by government leaders. A ‘transparency gap’ is developing between the domestic presentation of climate policy (the 2019 legislation and the 2021 Commission Report) and the international requirements of New Zealand’s reporting of the Target and progress towards it.”

    Reminds us why there's a huge pakeha male deficit in the Greens & their voter base. "Huh?? What are you trying to say?" would be their typical response. Can't get political support for policy shifts without communicating in language folks are familiar with. Duh!

    • Gezza 2.1
      14 October 2021 at 7:32 am

      “Methane is a potent greenhouse gas with a warming potential more than 28 times that of carbon dioxide (CO2). But when it comes to livestock and climate change, there are many other characteristics that set biogenic methane (methane from cattle) apart from CO2. Here are an important four:
      * It stays in our atmosphere for about 12 years 
      * It’s derived from atmospheric carbon, such as CO2
      * It’s part of the biogenic carbon cycle
      * It eventually returns to the atmosphere as CO2, making it recycled carbon
      …
      Methane has a relatively short life of 12 years compared to the hundreds or even thousands of years that CO2 hangs around. After about 12 years, 80 to 89 percent of methane is removed by oxidation with tropical hydroxyl radicals (OH), a process referred to as hydroxyl oxidation. As a result of its short lifespan, methane is only significantly warming our atmosphere for those 12 years, which is why it is considered a short-lived climate pollutant (SLCP).  

      Its short lifespan is further relevant in regard to warming, because it means that as methane is being emitted it is also being destroyed in the atmosphere, making it a flow gas. 

      This illustrates that methane’s warming impact isn’t determined by how much is being emitted – since it’s destroyed relatively quickly – but by how much more or less methane is being emitted over a period of time. This is a change in the rate of emission. 

      What is notable about methane, is that it’s possible the amount being emitted can equal the amount being destroyed. For example, if a herd of cattle emits the same amount of methane over 12 years, they are contributing to warming for those 12 years. But afterward the same amount being emitted is the same that is being destroyed through oxidation, and thus warming is neutral.”

      https://clear.ucdavis.edu/explainers/why-methane-cattle-warms-climate-differently-co2-fossil-fuels

      • Dennis Frank 2.1.1
        14 October 2021 at 7:59 am

        But afterward the same amount being emitted is the same that is being destroyed through oxidation, and thus warming is neutral.

        Yeah, this neutrality thesis is what's in question. Well, that's the impression I get anyway. We await any new consensus of experts! I'll just restate my point about oxidation by pointing out that CO2 is the product. How anyone in academia can spin that into neutrality is a bit beyond me. Do they use an equation?

        • Gezza 2.1.1.1
          14 October 2021 at 8:15 am

          It’s physics, so I imagine they do, Dennis.

          If it’s not shown in that article, there are others around on the web that proponents have posted to us on other blogs.

          It was hard enuf to find that one, because so many “experts” who dispute or refuse to accept this methane > CO2 cycle thesis have ensured that articles talking up the methane contribution to global warming (as opposed to it being a self-neutralising process) predominate in Google searches.

          • Dennis Frank 2.1.1.1.1
            14 October 2021 at 8:24 am

            Oh well, let's hope that the winds of change blown up by the climate summit dispell the fog. Disclosure of interest: I graduated BSc in physics. But that was in a bygone era. I got good at feeding back to the profs whatever line of bullshit they fished for in the design of exam questions. Worked like a charm.

            Ever since, I tend to just scan stuff to get the gist of it. Going any further means taking the author seriously – usually a waste of one's valuable time!

            • In Vino 2.1.1.1.1.1
              14 October 2021 at 10:32 am

              If the farmer keeps producing the same amount each year as gets neutralised by the 12th year, that means the farmer is providing a permanent store of Methane heating the atmosphere over 28 times worse than CO2 – the whole bloody time. Bring back lynch mobs!

              • Dennis Frank …
                14 October 2021 at 12:23 pm

                Well, the time for being critical of farmers is long gone really. Political focus ought to be shifting to solutions and implementation. Farmer's reps have been in the media rating farmer compliance at more than 80% during the past year. I'd like to get a reality check procedure adopted for that compliant majority, plus an enforcement procedure to apply to the remainder.

                That means Lab/Nat leaders have to pull finger, eh? Laziness from politicians ought not to be tolerated further by the public. Effective politics is still possible via the use of intelligent design of decision-making processes to extend consensus on solutions & implementation method. Dumb & dumber is institutionalised by democracy, true, but we can get around that with goodwill & serious intent.

            • Poission 2.1.1.1.1.2
              14 October 2021 at 12:46 pm

              The climate summit is being pushed into the corner by the reality of the global energy crisis.

              Europe has a significant energy crisis going into winter,due to high prices and supply shortages (due to under investment).

              interim measures such as subsidies are being implemented and discussion are underway to remove taxation on FF generators.

              https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1448243868072386564?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1448243868072386564%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fpublish.twitter.com%2F%3Fquery%3Dhttps3A2F2Ftwitter.com2FJavierBlas2Fstatus2F1448243868072386564widget%3DTweet

              https://www.dw.com/en/eu-unveils-toolbox-against-high-energy-prices/a-59488520

              https://www.dw.com/en/europeans-brace-for-hard-winter-as-energy-price-surge-hits-households/a-59246714

              • Dennis Frank …
                14 October 2021 at 1:34 pm

                That's related. The zero-sum thinkers will do trad reductionism: "Forget about climate-fixing, we must fix BAU!" Holists will go "Please extract your head from the 19th century, we need you to help the transition to sustainability. There Is No Alternative. If humanity is to survive…"

                Energy is so hard to come by right now that some provinces in China are rationing electricity, Europeans are paying sky-high prices for liquefied natural gas, power plants in India are on the verge of running out of coal, and the average price of a gallon of regular gasoline in the United States stood at $3.25 on Friday — up from $1.72 in April.

                As the global economy recovers and global leaders prepare to gather for a landmark conference on climate change, the sudden energy crunch hitting the world is threatening already stressed supply chains, stirring geopolitical tensions and raising questions about whether the world is ready for the green energy revolution when it’s having trouble powering itself right now.

                https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/10/09/energy-crisis-global/

                Flunk the challenge or engage it? Suit-wearers of the left & right would cope better if they stop wearing their 19th century uniform.

    • Jenny how to get there 2.2
      14 October 2021 at 8:33 am

      Our failing response to the covid pandemic, reminds me of our response to climate change.

      We are told, "Well we must open up eventually, don't we?"

      Well what if we didn't?

      What if instead of jetting off to the Gold Coast for the weekend, at the cost of one old person catching the infection and dying, we holidayed at home at one of this country's many attractions?

      Before the 60's and even into the 70's mass air travel wasn't even a thing. Air travel was a rare luxury for the wealthy, or something you saved up for that once in a lifetime vacation.

      I think we need to personalise the experience of air travel in the age of covid. Before you are allowed to fly overseas for that weekend on the beach at Surfers or Bondi, you have to agree to go into an old folks home and personally euthanise one old person.

      And if you think Covid is bad, the climate crisis is going to be worse.

      While your high emissions lifestyle is more likely to kill someone in the Third World and not you, again I think we need to personalise the experience of air travel in the age of climate change.

      Alighting at that exotic tropical holdiday destination, before you get to relax on the beach with that maitai in your hand, you have to agree to drown one local child in the nearest river.

      • Dennis Frank 2.2.1
        14 October 2021 at 9:10 am

        I'll go with the principle of moral responsibility. It tends to operate as sub-text for political activists. Make it explicit & folks immediately start complaining that thinking about it makes their brain hurt.

        What if it were to be incorporated into a code of ethics for economists and accountants? Then you'd get the real costs of business & policies impacting onto political decisions. Both left- and right-wingers would hate that! Since democracy was designed to privilege both tribes of wrongdoers, gonna be real hard to make progress on an ethical basis.

      • UncookedSelachimorpha 2.2.2
        14 October 2021 at 10:48 am

        Yes, millions of individuals acting selfishly don't seem able to solve the big problems. Who would have thought (except 99% of mainstream economists and politicians)?

        • Gezza 2.2.2.1
          14 October 2021 at 7:03 pm

          It don’t make no never mind (as US southerners might say) to the planet.

          If we human apes don’t get our act together, the ecosytem & our social settings will change to make survival of the current huge numbers of our arrogant & untthinking species more difficult.

          There will be other species which will likely survive better in a hotter workd, & / or new ones might arise or evolve to take advantage of the new niches, as always.

          The most special thing about human apes is the danger they present to all other life forms, as well as their own.

  3. Adrian 3
    14 October 2021 at 7:24 am

    Kim Hill uncharacteristically letting Chris Bishop, world authority on epidemiology, vaccination and nurse ICU training off the hook this morning , apparently there are 3000 nurses in the MIQ queue desperate to get home to work in ICU. Really? Just how many are only coming home to see mum and dad for a while, how many are ICU trained, a process that can take years or months just to be bought up to speed if with previous ICU experience, because techniques and equipment and drugs are constantly being upgraded. Or coming home to get the fuck away from nursing because of burnout?

    Oh, and they can home isolate even if symptomatic because of an app on their phone with say, aged parents with compromised function or a sister with young, unvaxxed children, in fact all 30,000 can come home. Fuck off Bishop and take your vax avoider mate Goudie with you.

    John Carter Northland Mayor?, another ex Nat railing about the two women sex workers, how about naming and shaming the Northland residents who aided and abetted the two to go to Northland in the first place? But hang on, they may be National Party donors or “ prominent in the community” , can’t have that eh. Arseholes.

    • garibaldi 3.1
      14 October 2021 at 7:31 am

      It's alright Adrian, I'll get Chris Faafoi to look into it for you.

    • Gezza 3.2
      14 October 2021 at 7:38 am

      Calm down, Adrian. One you got to John Carter you lost me, I’m afraid. Arseholes, I understood but the rest of it’s a bit too convoluted for me to follow, tbh. I am a bear of small brain. 🐼

    • Treetop 3.3
      14 October 2021 at 8:17 am

      There are going to be cases of people self isolating at home so they do not catch Covid. Some people are spending a lot of time in their home under level 2 even now and they are restructuring their interests.

      The likes of mayors or opposition politicians do not need to tell me how to personally manage a Covid outbreak.

      The urgency is in Auckland and the basics need to be provided, food, counselling, laptops and phone connections for school education, rental housing assistance, survival income and free sound business advice.

    • observer 3.4
      14 October 2021 at 9:47 am

      That's not fair on John Carter. He is genuinely angry about this.

      He is not like Goudie.

    • gsays 3.5
      14 October 2021 at 10:31 am

      In regards to Bisflap, it could be an example of 'Give 'em enough rope…'

  4. Adrian 4
    14 October 2021 at 7:47 am

    I was illustrating how easy it is to give grandstanders like Bishop and Carter room to put up straw theories that can fall apart at the first challenge. But first they must be challenged.

    • tc 4.1
      14 October 2021 at 8:06 am

      As good as Kim can be she does operate within the RNZ ecosystem which got hobbled long ago by….3 guesses no prizes.

    • Gezza 4.2
      14 October 2021 at 8:19 am

      When Kim Hill wants to challenge or question someone’s statements, she’s usually very good at it – quite dogged & determined.

      Perhaps she’s feeling off colour, or just not in the mood this morning? I’ll see if I can find the audio track when RNZ post it, & have a listen later.

    • Treetop 4.3
      14 October 2021 at 8:55 am

      How long is the Delta Covid wave likely to last in NZ?

      Bishop and Carter can spit tacks all they like about individual rule breakers, once the rules are broken they cannot be reversed. The situation can only be contained and everyone is affected when rules are broken and infection control is not followed properly.

  5. garibaldi 5
    14 October 2021 at 8:18 am

    Two of them are Richard Griffin and Paul Thompson. The name of the newest rightie on the board escapes me.

    • Gezza 6.1
      14 October 2021 at 9:05 am

      Interesting tho. 👍🏼

    • Ad 6.2
      14 October 2021 at 9:35 am

      O Virus, look upon your mortal legions and despair.

      1. You haven't risen beyond any other social ill. The mortality and morbidity effects are far less that car crashes per year. You're over-hyped.

      2. Each crisis has made us stronger. Some of our more recent crises have rapidly accelerated human progress. Such as in global co-operation, medicine, mechanisation, and communications and information. You helped us kill you, again and again.

      3. You told us nothing about the poor. Covid is eventually a disease of deprivation, but pretty much everything else is already.

      4. We know better than you. Covid has been a strong positive axial point for human knowledge. It has confirmed the epistemic truth of science against social media, and simultaneously supported accelerated successful drug trials faster than we've seen in decades..

      5. Our unity overcomes you. Social cohesion has remained remarkably strong – even in the United States. There is no underground lava flow of human anomie to reveal from Covid.

      6. Our state is stronger than ever. Covid, even more than the GFC, has confirmed the necessity for strong and coherent government.

      7. Our dominion continues to strengthen. Compared to the Spanish 'Flu a century ago, human hygiene and public health measures are vastly superior. Humans have gained power not weakened in that time. If this is one of the worst viral powers in modern operation, it's been dealt to very fast and with remarkable lack of fuss.

      8 Capitalism, medicine, and government are united. Researchers invested and tested at speed. Regulators acted with appropriate speed. Few governments are afraid of debt anymore to achieve public health goals.

      9. The world is re-opening and re-born. Your lessons such as they are have already been absorbed and the height of your doom has passed. You haven't had the longevity of human interest of two seasons of Days Of Our Lives.

      10. You were the last of your kind, and you're done. Even Polio was stronger, Malaria more powerful and across more lives, and they too are being vaccined away. You were more than SARS, but less than most. Would you like a gold plated One Ring or something to make you feel better?

      Nothing can stop us.

  7. Ad 7
    14 October 2021 at 9:07 am

    For some reason my computer isn't copying, but here's the latest Talbot Mills (UMR) polling:

    Labour 46

    National 22

    Act 16

    Greens 7

    • Gezzau 7.1
      14 October 2021 at 9:22 am

      What were the previous results?

        • Gezza 7.1.1.1
          14 October 2021 at 9:39 am

          “Labour on 46 per cent (up one point from September), National on 22 per cent (down four points), Act up three points to 16 and the Greens up one at 7 per cent.”

          That’s what I wanted. Thank you. 👍🏼

        • Treetop 7.1.1.2
          14 October 2021 at 10:23 am

          Collins will survive until 2022 when parliament resumes. She will continue to be a liability as leader. National and Act could be neck and neck in the next Colmar Brunton poll.

        • Tricledrown 7.1.1.3
          14 October 2021 at 10:42 am

          All the National whingers and the ACT gossippers are not out trolling today.

          After many claims that ACT was taking votes directly from labour.

          Both Greens and Labour on steady ground National in more trouble those National MP's with slim majorities and lower on the list will want a new leader Pronto as business leaders say Collins is the best promoter for Labour.

          How long can National keep bleeding votes to every other party.

          • Treetop 7.1.1.3.1
            14 October 2021 at 1:52 pm

            National is in limbo until 2022.

          • Jenny How to get there 7.1.1.3.2
            14 October 2021 at 7:23 pm

            Judith Collins is not going anywhere.

            Judith Collins is like a vulture sitting on a tree branch patiently waiting for the beautiful antelope to stumble.

            Already she is preparing to swoop down on the wounded gazelle.

            After health experts were sidelined in the decision to lower the Auckland Alert Level, with the resulting rise in cases they warned the government of. Some of these health experts demanded to see who's advice the government had been taking.

            Despite the fact that lowering the level is what she had been demanding all along, Judith Collins has swooped down to peck at the fallen carcase of the Government's covid response. And is also now (belatedly) demanding that this policy advice be released.

            Judith Collins wants advice on Auckland alert level drop released as Jacinda Ardern foreshadows 'doubling in cases'

            • 12/10/2021
            • Zane Small

            Auckland was shifted down from alert level 4 last month despite 22 new community cases reported the day before and against the advice of several experts. Ultimately, the Government had to consider the mental wellbeing of Aucklanders and the financial strain on businesses.

            With more businesses able to operate at alert level 3, the virus has been able to transmit via food delivery, taxi services and construction workers.

            "Case numbers were trending down but are now clearly on a steady rise since Auckland left level 4. When will the Prime Minister release the health advice relied on to make the decision to reduce restrictions?" Collins said on Tuesday.

            https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2021/10/covid-19-judith-collins-wants-advice-on-auckland-alert-level-drop-released-as-jacinda-ardern-foreshadows-doubling-in-cases.html

            • Treetop 7.1.1.3.2.1
              14 October 2021 at 9:30 pm

              I knew the picnic bubble was a bad idea. It gave people a licience to entertain inside the home. Having a nominated visitor like in L4 needed to be maintained and allowing 2 nominated visitors in L3.

              Contact tracing would have been much easier.

            • Tricledrown 7.1.1.3.2.2
              14 October 2021 at 10:13 pm

              John Key would be happy with labour opening the economy.

              • Jenny How to get there …
                15 October 2021 at 3:42 pm

                As I mentioned Judith Collins was very late coming to the realisation that the government's decision to go out of Level 4 was a mistake, especially as this is just what she had been calling for.

                In demanding the government release the advice they received before going down a level, Judith Collins is only echoing the Health experts' query.

                New Zealand government’s pivot from Covid elimination ‘surprised’ top health experts

                A number of epidemiologists and public health experts who have been central to helping chart and communicate New Zealand’s Covid response thus far say they were taken by surprise by its new direction, and not consulted by the government as it pivoted away from elimination and outlined a controversial set of “steps” out of level 3 restrictions last week.

                The announcement was a shift in tack for New Zealand’s government, which has spent most of the pandemic in close to lock-step with public health professionals….

                …..“I don’t know what their consultation schedule was like – I certainly was not involved,” Pacific health expert and associate professor Collin Tukuitonga, of University of Auckland. Tukuitonga is a past director of public health at the Ministry of Health, and was on the ministry’s Covid-19 Technical Advisory Group.

                “A number of us were surprised at the announcement last Monday, the change that happened,” he said. “I personally thought it was premature to have gone to level 3, given the fact that we had all those new cases and unlinked cases as well, and low vaccination coverage in Auckland – so no, I was not involved and I don’t know who they consulted with.”

                He said further loosening of restrictions that were previewed on Monday, including the announcement – since rolled back – that schools would be reopening on 18 October – were also out of step with the realities of a growing outbreak.

                “I thought it was a fairly risky strategy – and time has proven that,” he said. “On Sunday there were 60 cases. In other words, there’s still transmission going on and I would have thought that we would have held the line with our original plan and elimination, until we had vaccination rates up, [given] the risks would be borne by Māori and Pasifika people.”

                https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/world/new-zealand-government-s-pivot-from-covid-elimination-surprised-top-health-experts/ar-AAPoQcQ?ocid=msedgntp

    • Enough is Enough 7.2
      14 October 2021 at 9:23 am

      With the Auckand Nat MPs not returning to Wellington until the new year how long will they hold off?

      Judith must be quietly hoping the lockdown lasts 2 years

    • observer 7.3
      14 October 2021 at 9:27 am

      Right track: 63

      Wrong track: 30

      As usual, the people disagree with those who are paid to tell the people what the people think.

    • AB 7.4
      14 October 2021 at 12:07 pm

      Lab/Grn a smidgeon over 50; Nat/ACT a smidgeon under 40. A 10-15% gap between the blocs – pretty much what we have been seeing for a while. The Key years in reverse.

      What will be the catalyst for that advantage flipping the other way – and what can be done to pre-empt it?

    • Mika 7.5
      14 October 2021 at 3:27 pm

      I'll be surprised in Labour still hold up their vote after the abandonment of elimination and the imminent overwhelming of our hospital services.

  8. Ed 8
    14 October 2021 at 9:15 am

    Rod Jackson speaking sense.

    "You can be really hard on them [rule breakers], but you're probably not going to ever stop them.

    "We have to make sure that our cars' brakes work, we need to make sure that we're doing everything and we're following all the rules because the more we do that, the more we can slow it down."

    “I think we need to take our mandatory vaccination rules much further. I think it has to be the police, it has to be supermarkets.

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/audio/player?audio_id=2018816323

    • UncookedSelachimorpha 8.1
      14 October 2021 at 10:54 am

      Meanwhile from anti-vaxxer land:

      'Despite having brakes, some cars still crash. Therefore I choose not to have any brakes'

  10. chris T 10
    14 October 2021 at 10:03 am

    Labour again showing it is not just houses that they can't build properly

    New My Covid website full of security holes.

    Link has the interview with the ITguy

    https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mike-hosking-breakfast/audio/daniel-ayers-it-security-expert-finds-issues-with-my-covid-website-within-a-few-minutes/

    "IT expert finds issues with My Covid website 'within a few minutes'

    A Christchurch IT expert has found security issues with the Government's My Covid website.

    The My Covid Record website is now accessible to the public, initially just allowing people to view their vaccination record.

    However, members of the public have reported the new site seems overloaded.

    IT security expert Daniel Ayers told Mike Hoskin a brand new website shouldn't have….." issues like these.

    • Tricledrown 10.1
      14 October 2021 at 11:03 am

      Chris T houses they can't build properly you mean when National threw out building quality control and put in private building inspectors in 1991 allowing the leaky building catastrophe.

      The Canterbury rebuild which is costing tax payers billions because of dodgy repairs and insurance underpayment.

      Kiwibuild was worth a try but because of shortages of Labour Land and materials it failed,But the number of govt funded new state houses has seen more built since the 1970's. National said it was a mistake to sell off 7,000 state houses.

      • chris T 10.1.1
        14 October 2021 at 12:43 pm

        Are you wearing your whataboutism t-shirt today?

        Kiwibuild was a joke. A flat out bribe that they knew perfectly well was impossible, because at the time they were under 30 in the polls.

        Fair play to Shearer though. To his credit he managed to not burst out laughing when he announced it. Not a lot of parties politicians would have had the ability to do that.

        • Tricledrown 10.1.1.1
          14 October 2021 at 1:52 pm

          Kiwibuild has delivered 1500 extra homes to the market while National had a massive deficit over 9 years Nicola Willis saying it was a mistake selling off 7,000 state houses .

          Labour has built nearly 4,000 state houses plus funding for nearly 1,000 NGO houses.

          When you add that all up its not enough but it's way better than National.If you take the Canterbury rebuild out of Nationals figures of state houses built. you will find Nationals housing efforts even worse but not as bad as the leaky building disasters like brand new hospitals and schools etc that still need fixing and demolition in many cases.

    • AB 10.2
      14 October 2021 at 12:21 pm

      Might be a case of Mike H picking the expert that fits the narrative. An official from the MoH said on RNZ today that the site had been security-audited by a third party consultancy.

      Did Mike try being an actual journalist and get the contending experts together in a balanced way without any pre-conceptions? Presumably not, as he has a particular ideological function to fulfill.

      And God knows what's actually true – IT is the wild west and it's best to doubt everyone involved in it.

  11. gsays 11
    14 October 2021 at 10:28 am

    2021 is…

    Updating the security photo on your cell phone to one where you are wearing a mask.

  12. Tricledrown 12
    14 October 2021 at 10:46 am

    National has moderated its criticism trying to look mature. A bit late in the day a lot of work to do.

  13. Bearded Git 13
    14 October 2021 at 1:27 pm

    71 cases today….I heard the expert interviewed by Kim hill just before 9am who said there really needs to be a vaccine that steralises covid, like the measles vaccine. Current covid vaccines allow transmission.

    I think we should eliminate covid for another year until such a vaccine becomes available. Level 4 in akl till Xmas. That is my opinion

    • Treetop 13.1
      14 October 2021 at 1:48 pm

      See what comes out of the serious Covid management discussion at the Beehive today. Top scientists and medical minds will be attending. No matter how good the plan is, even under level 4 their were rule breakers.

      The rule breakers are harming the community.

    • Enough is Enough 13.2
      14 October 2021 at 1:50 pm

      Not happening mate. Grant made that reasonably clear at 1pm. His comment that these are rule breakers, [so therefore it would be spreading at level 4 also] means Auckland is not going to bounce back up to 4.

      The time has come for us all to prepare for this virus to rip. We are now very much on the Melbourne trajectory. Numbers will double week on week from here.

      Its going to be a grim few weeks heading into Christmas.

      • Jimmy 13.2.1
        14 October 2021 at 2:02 pm

        I agree, I cant see them putting Auckland back to level 4 as they know there would be a public outcry. There is enough rule breakers already. One positive is it may speed up people getting the vaccine.

  14. Jimmy 14
    14 October 2021 at 1:47 pm

    Oh great. Sounds like this was a lucky escape for the South Island.

    Women who travelled to Blenheim have returned negative Covid results | Stuff.co.nz

    • Enough is Enough 14.1
      14 October 2021 at 1:52 pm

      Not surprising though. Just because someone is from Auckland, it doesn't mean they have COVID.

      • Jimmy 14.1.1
        14 October 2021 at 1:59 pm

        Problem being there seems to be more and more rule breakers!

        • Enough is Enough 14.1.1.1
          14 October 2021 at 2:04 pm

          True, still a tiny number of Aucklanders have the disease though, so the South would be very unlucky if one of the very few peole travelling had it.

          But its going to get down there at some stage over the coming week.s Numbers are about to explode which will means its heading south before Christmas.

  15. Adrian 15
    14 October 2021 at 2:04 pm

    Maybe not Enough is.. but if your job is getting hot and sweaty while naked with multiple clients you would have to go a long way to find a better transmission enviroment than that. And it will only get down to the South via a non- compliant arsehole from guess where?.

    • Gezza 15.1
      14 October 2021 at 2:25 pm

      Seems like half the country wants them all named & shamed, and the other half doesn’t want them & their families to have to face abuse from the public.

      Might have to bring back public stocks for lockdown runners, but let them wear a bag over their heads?

      We seem to be getting into situations where some lockdown runners’ names are publicly known & others aren’t.

    • Enough is Enough 15.2
      14 October 2021 at 3:06 pm

      The odds are still very low.

      Working person first needs to have got hot and sweaty with someone who had covid to then start spreading it. Thats about a 1 in 1000 chance.

  16. Ad 16
    14 October 2021 at 2:24 pm

    Good to hear Minister Little so optimistic about New Zealand getting to the 90% vaccinated rate nationwide.

    At 71 cases and rising, there aren't many more reasons to be optimistic.

    • Gezza 16.1
      14 October 2021 at 2:27 pm

      Let’s hope he’s right. Little has never inspired optimism in me.

    • Herodotus 16.2
      14 October 2021 at 2:55 pm

      Really great to hear of Littles optimism. So we will cut off the country at the Bombays ? No schooling , shops etc open this year and potentially April 22??, no holidays, Auckland north closed for what 6 months ???

      Perhaps some govt ministers should get out to Auckland, There is plenty of evidence that the public are not adhering to the level 3 rules( just look at the spread of cases), remember what Coster said in Feb 21 regarding "policing by consent". IMO this outbreak is hanging on the consent of the public, and evidence that this consent is diminishing.

      "Next year, even with a 90 per cent of the eligible population vaccinated, Covid cases in the area covering Auckland and Northland could hit 5300 a week for six weeks.The Government is not worried about this. In fact, it thinks it is entirely manageable."

      https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/covid-19-delta-outbreak-next-year-thousands-of-people-will-get-covid-most-will-stay-at-home/LQZ3WPSZD5WQKTQNOZ4YHHQZXE/

  17. miravox 17
    14 October 2021 at 2:59 pm

    For a lifetime, not a person of good character.

    Reckon the Aussies will deport him? Brown people who own motorbikes have been sent back for less than his "hoarding disorder".

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/126675998/ron-brierley-sentenced-to-14-months-in-jail-over-childabuse-images

    • joe90 17.1
      14 October 2021 at 3:14 pm

      $200 million buys him an easy seven months in the kid-fuckers wing and someone to fold the sheets down when he arrives home in Wunulla Rd.

    • Enough is Enough 18.1
      14 October 2021 at 3:07 pm

      Why did she say the numbers were not unexpected?

      I am trying to look back and can't find where they said they were expecting these numbers

      • McFlock 18.1.1
        14 October 2021 at 3:19 pm

        Well, they've said today they expect numbers to double in a couple of weeks.

        Even though it's rule-breaking rather than workplaces that seem to be the main source of spread, this calls for serious consideration about pushing everyone up a covid level – and explicitly blaming rulebreakers for it. This is why we can't have nice things.

        Unless they can guarantee cases will plateau in a fortnight (which they can't), this is going to get very ugly indeed.

        I do not want NZ crematoria running overtime.

        • Enough is Enough 18.1.1.1
          14 October 2021 at 3:51 pm

          I think the point being made is rule breakers don't care what level we are at. If they don't stay home at 3 why would they stay home at 4.

          • McFlock 18.1.1.1.1
            14 October 2021 at 4:06 pm

            Because even most rule breakers would care about what someone thinks.

            And those someones getting pissed at rulebreakers because they're the ones responsible for the lockdown, that might work.

            • Enough is Enough 18.1.1.1.1.1
              14 October 2021 at 4:18 pm

              You think areseholes breaking lockdown rules care about other people, or what they may think?

              Teenagers (or some of then) who haven't seen their boyfriend or mates in 60 days won't care.

              People who's livlihood rely on working in the black market won't care.

              Short sharp lockdows are effective. But once you get to this point (as has been shown everywhere else in the world) universal compliance becomes the issue.

              • McFlock …
                14 October 2021 at 4:31 pm

                Most people have someone – flatmate, family member, friend.

                And most people have neighbours, flatmates or exes who might be fucked off about rulebreaking keeping them in L4.

                What's your solution – abandon levels and watch the cases rise?

                • Andre …
                  14 October 2021 at 4:42 pm

                  Of the unvaccinated I know, they also didn't pay much attention to the rules for level 4 either. They've been quite boastful about what they got up in level 4 and still doing in level 3.

                  The only thing I can see that might move them are "no jab, no job" and "no jab, no entry" policies. And that's only going to affect whether they get vaccinated, not whether they comply with level 3 or 4 rules.

                • Enough is Enough …
                  15 October 2021 at 10:03 am

                  Cases are going to rise. That's inevitible. We can't put the genie back in the bottle now.

                  My solution, encourage everyone I know, friends, family collegues, neighbours to get the jab, because the virus is coming.

                  It is simply wishful thinking that we can have a COVID free New Zealand agian. That is a waste of energy as it will never be the case again.

                  • McFlock …
                    15 October 2021 at 4:37 pm

                    By that logic, it was always a waste of energy.

                    But I'd rather live in Auckland than Melbourne or Sydney right now.

                    • Enough is Enough …
                      15 October 2021 at 4:46 pm

                      Not really – Delta is a new beast. We gave it a good crack, which was the right thing to do, but we are now onto the next stage of this fight.

                    • McFlock …
                      15 October 2021 at 5:28 pm

                      No, really. I have family over there. fuck that.

                      There will be a few weeks of more initial doses of vaccine, but then there's a few more weeks before the second dose.

                      The next stage of this fight can be overloaded hospitals, or if folks can stick it out for a few more weeks we might be able to avoid that.

                      The main marathon's end is in sight, but don't fall over before we get there.

  19. observer 19
    14 October 2021 at 3:28 pm

    The latest poll only confirms the terrible results for National:

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/new-taxpayers-union-poll-has-national-just-six-points-ahead-of-act/

    Worth noting that this is the most recent, with polling until Monday. The commentators interviewed their keyboards and decided last week was terrible for Ardern instead, but the voters disagreed. How dare they.

    • Dennis Frank 19.1
      14 October 2021 at 4:00 pm

      "The Greens dropped 3.2 points to 6.4 per cent." Looks like their strategy of keeping a low profile is working well. Disclosure of non-interest: I allowed my GP membership to lapse last December. Their messaging has been too underwhelming for too long. I will never abandon my support for the Green movement, of course!

  20. Whispering Kate 20
    14 October 2021 at 4:29 pm

    Be interesting to know how many households are fracturing because of anti-vaxxers. The worry that they will get very sick if they contract covid and that families won't be able to help them. Christmas day will be fraught with angst with family members not being invited into the usual noisy rowdy train ride of a day. The simmering resentment which never goes away knowing that a loved one refuses to have the vaccine and is endangering their life and others around them.

    Our PM has said often that we all need to "encourage" our loved ones who are "hesitant". In my opinion the lady hasn't got a clue what she is on about. Trying to get an anti-vaxxer to take one for the team is like painfully pulling teeth. The bloody mindedness is boundless when they have made their minds up. One can say well, you only sow what you reap but try telling that to parents who love their kids. Its heartbreaking.

    • Andre 20.1
      14 October 2021 at 4:53 pm

      Yeah, of the half-dozen unvaccinated I know, only one is showing any signs of considering getting vaxed. He's aware that there's a lot of shit on the internet, and that he may not have been getting his ideas from reliable sources.

      But jeez, it's a lot of work going through every anti-vax talking point that he's bought into one by one and showing exactly how it's disinformation, and how to better interpret the actual facts of the actual situation the disinfo is built on. Something I find interesting is even after I've shown that a particular disinformation source is completely full of shit on several different topics, he still takes further ideas from that source as reliable.

    • Brigid 20.2
      14 October 2021 at 8:19 pm

      "try telling that to parents who love their kids. Its heartbreaking."

      Of the four there's only one.

      She's joined a cluster and it's as though her whole being depends on not breaking out. Every illogical, un-founded bullshit claim or theory has been refuted with proof and still….

      I just don't know how to fix it.

      • Patricia Bremner 20.2.1
        14 October 2021 at 9:07 pm

        Oh Brigid, my heart goes out to you. Keep loving and talking with, but decide on your rules. All the best to you both. xx

  21. Gezza 21
    14 October 2021 at 4:32 pm

    Christ. More sht goin' down in Tamaki Makaurau?

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/armed-police-chase-man-at-western-springs/GHHL4OW2XCUF3HRWJPM623GM34/

    Looking foward to an update…

    • Gezza 21.1
      14 October 2021 at 5:40 pm

      Oh, Ok. The headline and article have both now been updated. The guts of it is:

      ………………………………

      "Police have taken three people into custody following a stolen-car incident where people fled the scene before a car was spiked.

      Just after 2pm police said they were called to an incident after a person had their vehicle stolen in Massey.

      The Eagle police helicopter located the stolen vehicle and tracked it to Westgate. A police spokesperson confirmed the offender got away in a waiting vehicle, with two others in the car.

      "Eagle has continued to monitor the situation and police have been able to spike the car," the spokesperson said."

  22. Gezza 22
    14 October 2021 at 4:43 pm

    “A New Zealand journalist who has been reporting in Afghanistan’s capital since July for television network Al Jazeera has left the country amid growing concerns over safety.

    Charlotte Bellis, a television reporter from Christchurch now based in Doha, Qatar, had been in Kabul covering the withdrawal of international forces as the country came under Taliban control.

    Her father, Bruce Bellis, said he was unsure exactly when his daughter returned to Doha but it was “not long after the Americans left” at the end of August, marking the end of America’s involvement in the Afghanistan war.

    “I believe she is now in Doha because of the Taliban’s attitude towards women … so it was safer for Al Jazeera to take her back to Doha … I understand that’s where she is,” he said.”

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/126677293/kiwi-journalist-charlotte-bellis-leaves-afghanistan-amid-heightened-taliban-tension
    …………………………………

    This is a bit strange. As the Stuff article goes on to note, Bellis had remained in Kabul & prided herself on having established good working relationships with Kabul’s Taliban leadership, which made her feel quite safe there to continue reporting.

    I have noticed recently that one of Al Jazeera’s older hands, Stephanie Dekker, has taken over reporting from Kabul recently, instead of Charlotte, & wondered where she had gone to. Al Jazeera hasn’t said anything about her departure, as far as I know, on their tv news reporting.

    • SPC 22.1
      14 October 2021 at 4:56 pm

      It would not take more than a few cases of people one knows (contacts/Afghan journalists) being taken out to unnerve. Then she might have been warned to leave – her Taliban contacts were of the Doha diplomatic talks variety and there was a confrontation within the Taliban (over governing arrangements) around the time she left.

      • Gezza 22.1.1
        14 October 2021 at 6:06 pm

        Hmmm. The Taliban has been having major problems with ISK bombings as well, this past week – in several cities, including Kabul. Altho the Taliban Security Services Interim Minister was featured on Aljaz tv news last night saying that their security services have made great progress tracking down IS fighters, given the number of bombings & people killed (mainly Shia/Hazaris) he wasn’t very convincing.

        The Taliban are facing not just Islamic State attacks, but also the possible beginnings of an insurgency from other ethnic groups not represented in their government, including Masoud’s. They are discovering it’s not going to be just like the 1990s when they took control last time.

        But the situation over there is now in really dire straits. There’s no funding for anything, gov’t workers have no salaries being paid (& they already hadn’t been paid for months, before the Taliban took over), there’s no work, people are selling what little they have left to buy food, over 90% of the population is on the brink of starvation.

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