Interesting interview by Kim Hill with Dr Chris Smith, consultant clinical virologist at Cambridge University, on the Pfizer claims of a soon to be ready, 90% effective covid-19 vaccine.
A few points:
The Pfizer announcement was light on data and it's hard to know what the reality is
90% efficacy = 10% failure
the vaccine wasn't tested on people under 18, and probably wasn't tested on elderly people who are at particular risk of covid
if the vaccine is rushed and ends up going wrong (doesn't work well, has a too high side effect or damage rate) it will cause long term problems with covid vaccines and vaccines generally
many people who are normally ok with vaccines are concerned about a covid one and reluctant about it due to it being rushed (25% of people surveyed in the UK)
It's the first messenger RNA vaccine (this wasn't discussed but I'm wondering how they assess safety and side effects in a short time frame).
Re the 90% rate, and the first planned roll out in the UK of vaccinating 30% of the population, the rationale is that you vaccinate vulnerable people and their caregivers first. I can see how this would work in the UK which has widespread community transmission. I'm less clear about NZ, mostly because I haven't seen vaccination in the context of a plan around opening the borders. Vaccinating the frontline workers (border control, medical people) makes sense. Is anyone talking about beyond that?
It occurs to me that there needs to be a vaccine against the hubris of the self-centred, know-all type who talks their way into a position such as a President, Prime Minister, Finance Minister, Chancellor, CEO etc. It would act against hubris with a steady-on there, let's look at the facts and likely outcomes, and discuss them widely with a summary of pros and cons that satisfy everyone concerned that the point they wish to make is covered in the content.
An anti-hubris vaccine is what should be the next 'great work' from the scientists. And it could be spread by droplets, so if you can get near enough and aerosol the air, it will reach the pushy, one-eyed, slightly mad people who seem to hypnotise their way into people's brains, probably from the projection or transference that people perceive.
Projection and transference are very similar. They both involve you attributing emotions or feelings to a person who doesn't actually have them. … Projection occurs when you attribute a behavior or feeling you have about a person onto them. Then, you may begin to see “evidence” of those feelings projected back at you. https://www.healthline.com/health/mental-health/transference
The double standard is what gets me. Low cost, low risk interventions that we knew about back in March like Vitamin D get pooh pooh'ed because they haven't been through large gold standard double blind, peer reviewed published studies … yet somehow a vaccine leaps to the front of the queue without having to leap over the same hurdles.
The cautions you list are all quite reasonable, yet the msm is largely silent on them.
Between the blatant political biases, the incessant click bait and the selective spin put on everything … it's reached the point where reading the news has become a masochistic act of psychological self abuse.
And the financial heft and influence of the pharmaceutical companies can't be ignored .Never let a simple , cheap, achievable solution come between big pharma and its profits
Yes. The capture of the science by both political and business interests is deplorable. A similar story to climate science only this time the actors are wearing different hats.
If it works it will be the anti-inflammatory effect (as the cheap steroid gives – but not so well known, that same cheap steroid has been used in hospitals for lung/breathing difficulty amongst new borns for decades).
A 2020 public wants a click bait solution. an instant coffee vaccine. Yesterday.
No knowledge of what it takes, no understanding of the myriad, multi-layersed infinite variables and research involved.
The low status of scientists has been permanent, the disparagement and scorning of their work in the early stage of coronavirus very public. Every Tom Dick and Harry even if they'd done no science in high school or past their second year there, suddenly knew more about something experts had spent their lives immersed in
Now though we want them to magically click their fingers and save us.
I say, "Start by saving your fucking selves (and others) by doing some cheap, easy basic things. It ain't virological and epidemiological science."
I think this is a good article about the vaccine and quotes one of our leading experts in the field. It explains why 90% effectiveness is high and how that works.
I think there is a danger of fuelling anti vaccination sentiment and this isn't helpful at the moment
Vitamin D maybe helpful in the fight against Covid, but as a widespread intervention there would need to be gold standard studies. This is how medical science works and I am grateful for it.
Of course if leaders of the world had used the behavioural strategies available to control an infection like Covid 19 and the populace had of adopted these strategies, then the pandemic would be on the wane. Leaders of the world are clearly very imperfect and have ignored the science. The general public are also imperfect, e.g people drinking at bars on Ponsonby Road last night without social distancing when there is currently Covid in the community. FFS. I cannot understand why people would do this, but then that is just me.
How about we all start feeling grateful there is a vaccine? Small Pox, measles etc have either been eradicated or controlled by vaccines. And do all the right things to fight the virus before it is rolled out. The use of the Covid tracer app is frankly woeful……
What is the answer to 'frankly woeful' use of the Covid tracer app? Is that use and that App better than nothing – and it is just one small thing in our approaches?
There has already been discussion about how the app doesn't work on a number of devices we already have. Therefore the thinking goes, we should buy new devices. That costs money and the people that are doing work of great value against Covid are not usually those with good incomes and resources. Solution – develop a new multi-platform? app or add-on that will work in present cellphones etc. Or make new cellphones available free to those who need them.
It seems that we are running out of steam for coping with outcomes. Once something is designed, we have done our bit says government and their facilitators for tech. If it doesn't work it's SEP.
And gummint remember, we are basically a poor country, so don't look at the real estate smiles for a measure, look at the large number of no-estate citizens. We talk about 'punching above our weight?', actually it means the bodies of NZ sinking slowly and the hands apparently punching are actually a gesture of a cry for help.
Vitamin D maybe helpful in the fight against Covid, but as a widespread intervention there would need to be gold standard studies.
Which is well and good, but it's not like Vitamin D is a novel and unknown substance. It's well understood, has known benefits, and cases of toxic overdose are extremely rare. Countries like Sweden have already been adding it to some foods, albeit at relatively low levels, for many years now. They plan on on increasing it now.
The biggest problem, I'd suggest, is that it's so very cheap.
Those taking aspirin did well when infected with the coronavirus. Similar to those who had good levels of Vitamin D – presumably in mitigating problems caused by the illness – no clots etc.
Vitamin D – "very cheap", easy to get, widely touted in the msm as a potential "game changer" in the fight against COVID-19 (even the esteemed Dr Fauci takes it), etc., etc.
Over the last month the global number of active cases of COVID-19 has increased from 8.5 million to 15 million. IMHO the "biggest problem" is that civilisation is in the grip of a rapidly spreading pandemic. As long as taking vit. D supplements (in the safe range) doesn't compromise other common sense measures (physical distancing, hygiene, border controls, track and trace) to limit COVID spread, then what's not to like? Just don't forget about zinc (also in safe quantities):
Folic acid (a vitamin B) and fluoride are cheap too and have known health benefits with good safety profiles. There’s more to it than just simple economic arguments, there always is.
I know what happened with thalidomide and how people had to fight the drug company. Not just the drug company but the Ministry of Health. I have a lot of time for your views on health agencies and the delivery of services.
I agree unethical to give the vaccine to pregnant women. There may even be a window period prior to conceiving which is unsafe.
That was in 1961/62. It was developed for morning sickness. Given that birth defects were not immediately obvious it is understandable that there was a lag. I’d think that most civil servants working in MoH (DoH, as it was known then) at the time have moved on.
The philosophy of science/medicine of the time was the problem though, not the lack of ability to see the future, and I still see science is god* people arguing that the damage that gets done is the price we pay for the good science brings.
*science as the one true way and better than all other ways of knowing sometimes to the exclusion of other ways of knowing.
Sure, it was a disaster but to somehow connect that example to a Covid-19 vaccine and MoH in present time seems plain fear mongering, IMO. There are risks, always will be, and these need to be managed properly. If we’re saying that we cannot trust the makers of that or any other Covid-19 vaccine, that we cannot trust MoH to do the right things by and for us, then we might as well stay in bed and wait for the end of time to come and get (take?) us. I struggle with outbursts of hyper-emotional theatrics and histrionics and self-reinforcing loops of fear, distrust, and paranoia. Let’s talk these things through calmly, kindly, and respectfully.
that we cannot trust MoH to do the right things by and for us,
You might want to Google "Ministry of Health Disability Support Services neglect and abuse.."
There's plenty of reading, and yes, some of it is "emotional" because that's how people get when a government organisation charged with providing care and support to a particular group of citizens fails. Time and fucking time again.
And if you think some of us are locked into this cycle of paranoia and distrust…you ought to have been sitting in various legal venues over the past two decades and listened how our beloved Crown Law argued the case against disabled New Zealanders and their families. This might give you some idea.
But to have a Crown Lawyer eyeball you in court and spew their bile…a whole new and novel experience. I wouldn't piss on any of them if they were on fire.
This is the Ministry of Health…charged with providing tax payer funded health and disability services and they treat citizens like so much worthless shit….
…and Crown Law…charged with ensuring New Zealand Laws are upheld…not treating innocent citizens as if we're guilty.
Fucking oath I wouldn't trust them.
Oh, and some of us have tried 'calm, kind and respectful' and ended up being treated like we have done wrong. That we had lied and cheated. That we would abuse and neglect. When it was the Ministry's own contracted providers doing the abusing and neglecting. And the Ministry lied and denied.
And yes Incognito I have crates full of evidence. I have evidence that senior bureaucrats at the MOH:DSS are so stunningly ignorant of the realities of the care required for some disabled people with the very highest needs that one doesn't know whether to guffaw at their outright idiocy or weep that they are in charge of peoples lives. So we do both.
And do I have to remind you again of the debacle that was the mask instructions for those requiring home based care? They fucking dug their toes in didn't they? Nevermind the precautionary principle, nevermind that Uncle Ashley knew so little of what was required for personal cares that he was waffling on about 'only if you're closer that 1 metre to the client'. What and ignorant fool…but I guess he was being advised by those ignorant numpties in DSS.
I have seen nothing over the past 10 months that raises my trust level in our Government and especially not for the MOH.
Oh and the 'risks'…none for Pfizer, they'll have immunity from any responsibility. They can't lose.
It's not that the MoH is going to feed us a drug as bad as thalidomide. It's that the worldview is still similar. We're better, because we learned from thalidomide, but there is also reason to be cautious. It's a potent mix, a pandemic narrowly averted in NZ but still raging elsewhere, the push to save the economy, a health system that has been rationalised economically for decades, and a MoH with substantial cultural problems.
As for trusting the MoH, there are many people that good reason not to, unfortunately. Maybe we should amplify their voice a bit. It's not a black and white thing, criticising the MoH doesn't mean they're useless or can't be trusted in any capacity. But denial of the risks and problems doesn't help either.
I was looking at the assistance given then and now to the affected children, now adults. As well support to the mothers. This would be ongoing for both.
There were lots of legal wrangles, as you can imagine, and a few settlements with companies. What was the role of MoH in all that and what assistance did it give?
MoH attitude was send your child to an institution and have another baby to fill the void. Fight for disability assistance as well in your adult years.
I do not do scare mongering. I try to deal with the facts. History cannot be allowed to repeat itself with any medication/vaccine. I am not an anti vaxer, never have been and probably never will be.
When it came to legal wrangles any fool could see it was the thalidomide. It took years to settle a case and it would have been stressful to deal with the drug company which had the resources to squash you.
4 December 1961 thalidomide was recalled in NZ. It took the Department of Health until July 27 1962 to issue an official directive to destroy the remaining stocks of the drug.
A bit more on that 90% efficacy/10% failure: it seems they were only looking for symptomatic people, and weren't testing for asympotmatic-but-infectious people. So depending on how "efficacy" is defined. That also has implications for what % of the population needs to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity.
Another factor is it isn't clear how failed the failures were. The data set probably isn't big enough for the answer yet, but if the vaccine didn't completely prevent disease, but still reduced the likelihood of a mild infection progressing to severe disease or death, that's still a very worthwhile outcome, even if it falls short of being included in the the "efficacy" definition.
Everything I've seen suggests there isn't yet a clear plan on which groups are priorities for early vaccinations. Just vague generalities about front-line staff (most likely to be exposed), and vulnerable groups, including Maori and Pasifika, disabled, elderly, those with illness that put them at extra risk, elderly etc. I haven't yet seen anything about when it might get extended to those likely to be in contact with large numbers of people, ie teachers, bus drivers, hospitality staff etc.
And after the outrageous way the MOH decided disabled people and their home based carers did not need PPE, especially masks, unless symptomatic my guess is that the disabled might be a little cautious also. I still reckon the Ministry was hoping that Te Virus would carry off more of this vulnerable group.
UK plan seems to be 30% vax rate, focused on the vulnerable.
The issue in NZ is the borders. Yes, vaccinating isolation hotel staff, medical staff and border control people makes sense, but talking about herd immunity in NZ doesn't make sense unless we also talk about how/when the borders would open. I assume we're not having that conversation yet because we don't know how effective any vaccine will be, nor how long it confers immunity. The rush from my pov is for countries who have out of control community transmission, and no good way to contain that now (although I assume there is a useful strategy in doing lockdowns, distancing, masks etc *and vaccinating).
My problem there is that because it will be rushed, there are likely to be people who have adverse reactions, and they will be seen as collateral damage in large part for the economu. But it remains to be seen if they will be taken seriously, how adverse reactions will be reported and monitored, and whether those people will get support. Lots of shitty anti/pro vax wars stuff is really going to bite us now.
Am also mindful that NZ is bad at supporting chronically ill people, and I haven't seen anything to suggest we will be better on this with long haul covid. It's not just about the death rate and the economy.
Maths dude interviewed by Hill this morning made some good points about vaccine hesitant people, we shouldn't treat them as stupid or ostracise them, but instead talk through the issues people are concerned about for themselves and their kids. This seems paramount now if we don't want a bigger anti-vax backlash.
Yeah all the points are true. It's a glimmer of hope, not a guarantee.
The things that separate the pfizer thing from any other magic bullet so far is that at least a decent-sized trial is under way and close enough to deliver intial results, and also pfizer is an established industry actor – it's not a startup looking for money, promising the earth, and with one magic black box they promise will be amazeballs when it finally works.
It could all go tits up on the cusp of production. But at least it's progress.
Point 2 give me a minor quibble, though. If the success metric is immunity, 90% is amazeballs. Some figure for herd immunity people were throwing around a while back was 60%. So even if 35% don't get it, that's a population immunity rate of 67% when we only need 60% to stop clusters emerging (assuming a random distribution of vaccine uptake). So 90% effective is probably good enough.
Contrast with measles(?) vaccine which I seem to recall needs in the range of 100% uptake to stop community spread outright.
90% across most of the population once the vaccine is effective and we know how it works in human populations, would be amazing. I'm not sure how close we are to that. I suspect 2021 reality will be more uneven, less certain. I also think there is a case for letting other countries get enough supplies to do whole populations before places like NZ (esp countries that are struggling to contain covid because of resource issues).
Treetop – Are forced marriages going on there and the expectation to breed?
I would say probably. There would be expectations of marriage, and to a chosen person. I have family who seem to be in a sect; my young relative did very well at school developing a skill in draughtsmanship, but got married to a young man from the group when she was about 17. And babies came soon. Life as an adult had just begun, but maturing, developing her own skills, abilities as a male would, was not to be encouraged. And it would have probably taken her out of the group which grows, tight-knit. There are quite a few groups, patriarchal, like this around. They live apparently normal lives, but constrained and controlled. If they home-school then the children are isolated and may be deprived of contact with other children outside the chosen circle, and are like hens being fed, clucking around, and laying eggs, all for the greater good.
They have Leaders imposed on them apparently. And are involved with other similar groups in other countries. The Sydney Morning Herald notes that the early group was started by an Australian. (This reminds me of Jones from USA who took his group out of his country to South America; which ended unhappily in violence and murder).
Those who leave a sect need an organisation to go to, to help with a new start in life due to having lived in an abusive and controlled invironment. The loss of family would be hard to deal with.
There is not much difference between a refugee and a person escaping an intolerable situation when it comes to assistance required to live a meaningful life or to escape persecution.
Demographics are not destiny, says David Shor. And if Democrats want their party to succeed nationally, they’ll have to face that fact and change.
For years, the Democratic Party has operated under one immutable assumption: Long-term demographic trends would give the party something like a permanent majority as the country as a whole grows less white and more urban. President Donald Trump’s reliance on the politics of racial resentment would only quicken the process, solidifying support for Democrats among people of color.
Then came November 3, 2020. And all those assumptions now seem like total nonsense.
Long-ish interview with Democratic polling & data expert David Shor.
Well one thing you can be sure of is that he Democratic establishment will learn nothing from almost losing to Trump, as in 2016 they will blame the voters and progressives for their failures.
Democratic leaders play a ridiculous blame game with progressives
He would be more believable if he spent time showing the disenfranchisement effect of Republicans utterly screwing district boundaries to favour white people against all categories of non-white for decades.
Also he would have done better if he accepted where demographic shifts really helped Democrats over time.
California used to be regularly Republican – but their last win there was under Reagan. A Democrat president since Carter would simply be ruled out if that hadn't followed the demographic trend to support Democrats.
They also certainly counted in Georgia this year (which most MSM broadcasters have called this morning) and as this commentary notes, demographic change in Georgia and other sunbelt states was critical there.
Now, there may well be lazy Dem-leaning commentators who proposed the inevitability of change.
But who would have thought that Bill Clinton would take out those solid mid-western states like Louisiana, Tennessee, Kentucky, Missouri – with growing Black voter bases? Democrats would, of course. That's 1992 and 1996.
Then of course there's Obama, who would compare his first election to Shor's analysis and just laugh.
A Democratic president needs luck, and the right candidate, and you also need the right demographic headwinds.
Republicans are complaining that something’s not quite right with the presidential election, but the very same ballots voters used to elect Joe Biden helped the GOP run up their numbers, not just in Congress but in a whole bunch of state legislature races. Democrats had hoped to take control of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Texas—and it didn’t happen. On Wednesday’s episode of What Next, I spoke with Ari Berman, a senior reporter at Mother Jones, about what’s happening in these states and how it may cement Republican power across the country for the next decade. Our conversation has been edited and condensed for clarity.
Mary Harris: We’ve talked a lot about down-ballot races and the Senate and the House on this show, but I’ve heard a lot less conversation about state legislatures. Do you think that’s a miss?
Ari Berman: I do think it’s a miss. We are heading into another redistricting cycle in 2021, and it’s the state legislatures that were elected in 2020 that are going to draw those maps for the next decade and determine which way all these pivotal swing states go. I think one of the biggest consequences of the 2020 election, which has not gotten much attention, is what happened in all of these different state legislative races.
Can you give me the 101 version of why we need to be paying attention?
Statehouses are important in a lot of different ways. They control voting laws. They control health care. They control environmental laws. But if you’re talking just about political power, state legislatures, with a few exceptions, are the ones that draw districts both for themselves and also for the House of Representatives. So the districts that these state legislatures are going to draw in 2021—which is when the next redistricting cycle happens—are going to determine who’s in control of these legislatures for the next decade. It’s also going to determine what the House of Representatives looks like for the next decade. State legislatures don’t get a whole lot of attention, but when it comes to how political power is distributed in America, they are incredibly, incredibly important.
Some time ago there was a post to The Standard about a radio report saying that a survey had indicated that there was a minority of New Zealanders that supported Trump – mostly also National supporters – does anyone recall when that was?
The radio report will have been about the study at this link. A personal experience of 'debating' with a relative and listening to Trumpeters losing their minds on talkback before and since the US election has been equally revealing:
Of the 55,147 who answered the question in the mid-2020 survey, 6,833 said they hoped Trump would win. So, who are these Kiwi Trumpers? And what do they really think?
Even demographic spread …Kiwi men are more than twice as likely to support Trump than women — a much wider gender gap than was found in the US after the 2016 election.
Kiwi Trumpers are distributed evenly across lower and middle income brackets, and support declines only slightly in the upper income brackets.
Perhaps surprisingly, 15.6% of Pasifika respondents and 20% of those who ticked the “gender-diverse” box hoped Trump would win — above the overall 11% result….
Only 20% of National supporters overall said they hoped Trump would win. But this sub-group of National supporters made up 56% of the entire cohort of Kiwi Trumpers. A further 23% of Kiwi Trumpers supported ACT. So, the National Party is the preferred party of the Kiwi Trumper.
Nov.6/20 by Grant Duncan Associate Professor, School of People, Environment and Planning, Massey University
I think I can fairly say I have had a longtime very low opinion of D. Jobless Drumpf's cognitive processes. But even I'm having trouble with the idea this is actually from him. To the point that I've tried to find evidence that this is a spoof. But Daniel Dale appears to be a genuine reporter for CNN, heavily involved in fact-checking, and it’s not April 1, so …
There needs to be more discussion about politics and society and how we go about ordering and disordering what we have. I think we should have regular regional Ted Talks from people who have a range of views and can present a reasoned case.
Not a religious pulpit as such, but people aware of how neo-lib is trying to traduce religion and our natural virtuous instincts. I refuse to be merely an object in a business culture experiment, being manipulated to do something, a pigeon activated to peck for whatever by remote control.
Our information sources are sadly lacking and more frequently have a bias because of the commenter being a paid mouthpiece from some firm, or a straight PR providing focussed promotion and advertising. How are we to learn, comprehend and place into a framework of understanding about what is happening in our fast-moving society? Parents, school, broadcast media – all with bias and tending to dislike learning from reading, thought, questioning and discussion, even debates are competitive, but what if there is no straight-out or easy answer, just equivocal solutions each tailored for the special situations occurring! Instead the preference is for physicality – sports, running, biking, walking is more spoken about than encouraged.
Information, news; the old idea of the Fourth Estate here – I wonder if it is still being fed to trainee journalists?
The term Fourth Estate or fourth power refers to the press and news media both in explicit capacity of advocacy and implicit ability to frame political issues. Though it is not formally recognized as a part of a political system, it wields significant indirect social influence. Fourth Estate – Wikipedia
The press is called the fourth estate in the United States usually because they observe the political process. They do this to make sure the participants do not exploit the democratic system. They play a crucial role in the outcome of political issues and candidates. Fourth Estate – Open School of Journalism
Seymour’s calling out of Reserve Bank governor Adrian Orr’s recent stimulatory actions as “Muldoonist” and “unorthodox” (while slagging Orr himself as a “liability”) should be treated as a tantrum best handled by putting Seymour back in his cot again, until he cries himself to sleep.
I heard Seymour and realised in a RNZ interview we wouldn't hear his solutions. The format suits him, he can spray and walk away.
No doubt he will write a book about how he would start form scratch and reorganise things so that Adrian Orr is not in the situation where he has to make the decisions he has made.
He may have done in on his pre-election rounds. Or not. No votes in that.
How soon is it too soon to test for Covid and how late is it too late to test for Covid?
Today a weak positive case, a neighbour at the Vincent Street Apartments. They were previously tested. It is looking like a second test a week apart might be the way to go with some close contacts and to isolate until after the second test result is known.
I have given it a thought if the pipes between the Vincent Street Apartments and the Millennium Hotel are shared by connection and back flow could be an issue.
What is it we would really like the government to do when it has got all the important things accomplished?
I would like fireworks to be available only for licensed users at public functions. NO private sales. Then they wouldn't be popping up all through the year, November 5th bangs on and on upsetting and likely to cause fires and eye damage when aimed wrongly. Health and safety could prove their worth by forcing intelligent laws on this but….
And I hate the sirens we have. So strident, so high and loud, the dogs on the hill howl and I feel like it too. Here are some ideas for better from the inimitable Bill Bailey (I can't remember what that means but think, good).
Did I hear correctly on NatRad that the Pfizer vaccine needs to be stored and transported at MINUS 80 ( F,or C? ) . Whichever it pretty much buggers it as a cure for most of the world.
It's below minus 70C. Dry ice is minus 78C, so containers surrounded by dry ice will do the job. Pfizer has developed a transport container that will keep it cold enough for 10 days, or up to 25 days if the dry ice is replenished. So it's a challenge to be sure, but not insurmountable.
The ebola vaccine had similar requirements, and they managed to get it out into the field. Although in the end, the vaccine was late to the party and public health measures had already controlled the outbreak.
There is a long-shot legal theory, floated by Republicans before the election, that Republican-friendly legislatures in places such as Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania could ignore the popular vote in their states and appoint their own electors. Federal law allows legislatures to do this if states have “failed to make a choice” by the day the electoral college meets. But there is no evidence of systemic fraud of wrongdoing in any state and Biden’s commanding margins in these places make it clear that the states have in fact made a choice.
“If the country continues to follow the rule of law, I see no plausible constitutional path forward for Trump to remain as president barring new evidence of some massive failure of the election system in multiple states,” Richard Hasen, a law professor at the University of California, Irvine, who specializes in elections, wrote in an email. “It would be a naked, antidemocratic power grab to try to use state legislatures to get around the voters’ choice and I don’t expect it to happen.”
For lawmakers in a single state to choose to override the clear will of its voters this way would be extraordinary and probably cause a huge outcry. For Trump to win the electoral college, several states would have to take this extraordinary step, a move that would cause extreme backlash and a real crisis of democracy throughout the country.
The 5.4 million difference in the popular vote was largely from California
Joe Biden (D) 10,757,884 63.82%
Donald J. Trump (R) 5,736,893 34.03%
The winning Electoral College vote was largely decided in five major Democrat controlled cities: Philadelphia and Pittsburgh (Pennsylvania), Milwaukee (Wisconsin), Detroit (Michigan) and Atlanta ( Georgia).
The Elections have been dangerously close elsewhere which seems to have emboldened the losing side!
Sorry Maurice, but your overview of the election results neglects the margins by which Trump beat Biden in the 25 states that he did win, and neglects the size of the vote in each state where Biden flipped the state.
Wisconsin 20,500+
Michigan 125,000+
Pennsylvania 75,000+
Arizona 10,500+
Georgia 14,000+
(as at 8.45 am NZDST)
Most political commentators suggest that the size of these margins are well outside the margin which would be susceptible to being overturned on recount, or by the odd instance of voter fraud.
Biden beat Trump by over 900,000 votes in New York state which is heavily Republican outside of the City. The fact that a city's population might influence the outcome of a state's voting preference, does not mean that the popular vote has no relevance.
New York State is indeed interesting with over 2 million votes yet to be counted.
Biden votes are largely concentrated in the city counties – about 14 of them whereas Trump votes are spread out over the less populous counties – about 48 of them
With about 84% of the expected vote counted the results as at 5.11 pm ET are displayed here:
The expression a death by a thousand cuts, just leave him to it. Have a plan for needing to detain him when necessary where national security is at stake.
What to do with the president would be being discussed. At some point intervention may be required for his own welfare.
Is it possible that the present incumbent of the White House will appear at Biden's presidential inauguration on Jan 20 2021, claiming it as his own for a second term? After all, given the recent post US election insane ramblings and utterings from Trump, I doubt anything he says or does from now on will be surprising!
There is a culture of denial and false hope in the Presidents inner circle. This cannot continue. It is one thing to want a recount and another to not admit that Biden won.
Seems like everyones happy 'bout Biden winning, I wonder if Julian Assange is, we will see what sort of a humanist Biden turns out to be, nothing short of dropping the case against Julian will tell a tale, but dont hold your breath.
Possibly when it comes to treating Assange right and giving him release plus a rap over the knuckles, it'll be like the old song 'I'm just biding my ti.ime, That's the kind of guy I am."
A long thread with something for everyone: Russians, Dan Bongino, Steve Bannon, The Epoch Times, Candace Owens, Cassandra Fairbanks, the husband of Paul senior's granddaughter with political connections to both Pauls and Mitch McConnell, the hospitality coordinator at a tRump hotel steakhouse at a Trump hotel, Giuliani’s former law firm and lots more.
Shoutout to Deborah Russell and team for actually holding a Thankyou Volunteers Event today to the people on the ground who actually worked for weeks on the election in New Lynn.
Don't usually hear of MPs taking the time to actually thank us drones.
‘Thank-you' events have been around for decades. They usually took the form of a BBQ put on by the candidate and more often than not took place at their home.
After President Barack Obama was elected in 2008 and the tea party (which pushed to slash federal spending) emerged, Mr. Koch threw his weight behind the new movement and its candidates. “We did not create the tea party. We shared their concern about unsustainable government spending, and we supported some tea-party groups on that issue,” Mr. Koch wrote in an email. “But it seems to me the tea party was largely unsuccessful long-term, given that we’re coming off a Republican administration with the largest government spending in history.”
Mr. Koch said he has since come to regret his partisanship, which he says badly deepened divisions. “Boy, did we screw up!” he writes in his new book. “What a mess!”
Mr. Koch is now trying to work together with Democrats and liberals on issues such as immigration, criminal-justice reform and limiting U.S. intervention abroad, where he thinks common ground can be found. He has partnered with organizations including the LeBron James Family Foundation, the American Civil Liberties Union and even a handful of Democratic state legislative campaigns. In 2019, he renamed the Koch network of about 700 donors as Stand Together.
We seem to be cornering Ardern and Robertson. Y'know about the people and reality. James Shaw, of all people, is trying out his talking voice re housing.
Us Left interested.
Why I voted for Andrew Little. Their magic talk for nothing.
You have to imagine how little i care for their moth shadows.
Buzz from the Beehive Transport Minister Simeon Brown dutifully issued advice to all road users to keep safe on our roads during the Easter weekend. He encouraged them to stay safe, plan their journeys ahead of time, and be patient with other drivers while travelling around this Easter long weekend. ...
Oliver Hartwich writes – New Zealanders recently learned about a new feature film. It will be about former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern – and taxpayers will subsidise it to the tune of NZ$800,000. Ardern had nothing personally to do with either the film or the subsidy. But her government’s ...
TL;DR: Here’s the top six news items of note in climate news for Aotearoa-NZ this week, and a discussion above that was recorded yesterday afternoon above between and The Kākā’s climate correspondent : An independent review panel into the emergency response to Cyclone Gabrielle in Hawkes Bayconcluded “that ...
There are now only a few days left to give feedback on the Draft Government Policy Statement (GPS) on Land Transport 2024-34 (see our earlier post this week on GPS submission guides). As we’ve reported, the GPS is a disaster for Local Government, so we were particularly interested to hear ...
Willis has pledged to go ahead with the debt-funded tax cuts, despite growing opposition from her own supporters worried about appearing fiscally irresponsible. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for ...
Open access notables A survey of interventions to actively conserve the frozen North, van Wijngaarden et al., Climatic Change:The frozen elements of the high North are thawing as the region warms much faster than the global mean. The dangers of sea level rise due to melting glacier ice, increased ...
Bryce Edwards writes – New Zealand’s biggest-ever political donations scandal is finally at an end. But what is the conclusion? No one can really be sure. The Court of Appeal released its judgement on Tuesday about the Serious Fraud Office case against the NZ First Foundation. On ...
In 2015, then-Prime Minister John Key announced plans for a huge ocean sanctuary around the Kermadec Islands, banning fishing and mining from 15% of Aotearoa's EEZ. It was bold, it was ambitious, and it suggested that National might actually care about the environment. Except they fucked it up: Key failed ...
1. Who has just been given the accolade New Zealander of the Year?a. The Kokakob. The Cook Strait Ferryc. Fair God. Dr Jim Salinger 2. Which of these is an affront to decent society?a. Dame Edna Everageb. Mrs Doubtfire c. Dr. Frank-N-Furterd. Brian 3. Who is Penny Simmonds?a. The aspiring actress in Big ...
New Zealand’s biggest-ever political donations scandal is finally at an end. But what is the conclusion? No one can really be sure.The Court of Appeal released its judgement on Tuesday about the Serious Fraud Office case against the NZ First Foundation. On the face of it, the court found ...
Buzz from the Beehive Waves of rain are set to lash much of the North Island during Easter Weekend as a low-pressure system forms east of New Zealand, according to a weather forecast published in the past day or so. Niwa was warning of a “moisture-laden” long weekend, with rain expected ...
Look around us…Nicola Willis’ promises of balancing the books, of cutting spending without reducing services, and of delivering game changing tax cuts are disappearing before her eyes.Everyday we see stories of violent crime ending in horrific injuries, or worse. The cost of living worsens, whereas the PM claimed renters would ...
TL;DR: My top six news of note on the morning of Thursday, March 28 include:The Government will have to borrow between $10 billion to $15 billion more than previously expected in order to make up for a slowing economy and to pay for $14.9 billion of tax cuts, according to ...
This story by Naveena Sadasivam and Kate Yoder was originally published by Grist and is part of Covering Climate Now, a global journalism collaboration strengthening coverage of the climate story. The long-awaited jobs board for the American Climate Corps, promised early in the Biden administration, will open next month, according to details shared exclusively ...
Should landlords be able to deduct the interest on the loans they take out to bankroll their property speculation? The US Senate Budget Committee and Bloomberg News don’t think this is a good idea, for reasons set out below. Regardless, our coalition government has been burning through a ton of ...
Treasury’s first report on the economy since the change of government presents a damning indictment of Labour’s economic management. The problem for National is that it is so damning that logically, coupled with a rapidly slowing economy, Finance Minister Nicola Willis should respond to it by postponing or even cancelling ...
Budget tensions are becoming evident within the Coalition Government. Winston Peters made numerous political points in his speech to the NZF annual conference. But the attack on his own government’s fiscal policies raised issues of substance. ‘Today in the Sunday Star Times, journalist and former advisor to the Labour ...
Buzz from the Beehive The media – sure enough – have been binging on Finance Minister Nicola Willis’ release of the Budget Policy Statement and a statement headed Government announces Budget priorities This assures us – or rather, this parrots the Luxon team mantra – that the Budget “will deliver ...
The Ides of March brought me COVID followed by a bereavement. No wonder they tell you to be careful of them.I’m home now and have resumed the interrupted recuperation. Very much looking forward to getting back to regular things. Meanwhile, some thoughts…OneThis new Prime Minister guy just keeps getting more dire. ...
News that the Chinese ATP 40 cyber-hacking unit penetrated parliamentary internet networks in 2021 has renewed concerns about the PRC’s malign intentions in Aotearoa. But is the hack that significant given the length of time that has passed since its … Continue reading → ...
When Parliament passed the Intelligence and security Act in 2017, they assured us all that it was full of safeguards. Any intrusive surveillance of New Zealanders would be subject to a "triple lock", requiring the approval of the Minister and (supposedly independent) Commissioner of Intelligence Warrants, as well as post-facto ...
Eric Crampton writes – Richard Harman’s Politik newsletter provides a bit of the context that ought to have been showing up in other media reports on potential reductions in public service staffing. Media has been reporting on staffing cuts on the order of about 7%. Is that ...
Mike Grimshaw writes – It’s becoming increasingly apparent that many perceive free speech to have become the preserve of the politically right wing, the religiously conservative, the libertarian fringe, the anti-trans, the anti-Māori and…. well, just fill in with whatever groups or individuals you don’t like and don’t ...
Don Brash writes – As everybody who is not blind and deaf is aware, there is a huge political preoccupation with climate change at the moment, a widespread (though by no means unanimous) belief that global temperatures are rising mainly as a result of the greenhouse gases created ...
TL;DR: My six things to note in Aotearoa’s political economy on Wednesday, March 27 include:Chris Bishop laid out his vision for filling Aotearoa-NZ’s $100 billion infrastructure deficit in a speech yesterday, emphasising user pays and private funding, but failed to say how to achieve bipartisanship on population, public borrowing and ...
Bryce Edwards writes – Former Finance Minister Grant Robertson and former Prime Minister Chris Hipkins have been conveying how unhappy they are with the tax system. Last week in his valedictory speech, Robertson called for the introduction of a wealth or capital gains tax. And this week Hipkins ...
On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
Buzz from the Beehive China has loomed large in Beehive considerations over the past 24 hours, largely because of that country’s mischief-making in the cyber espionage department. Two media statements emerged on that subject hard on the heels of the PM baulking at questions put to him on RNZ’s Morning ...
Chris Trotter writes – WHY IS THE NATIONAL PARTY doing so much for landlords, property developers, trucking, and construction companies, and so little for everybody who isn’t already pretty well-off? It’s as if protecting landlords’ investments and building apartments and roads now constitute the whole of National’s ...
Bryce Edwards writes – When she was campaigning to be Minister of Finance last year, Nicola Willis pledged that she would resign from the job if she failed to deliver tax cuts in her first Budget. Now, it’s that pledge, along with Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s ...
Robert MacCulloch writes – The Reserve Bank has doubled staff numbers in five years to 510, with personnel costs rising to $80 million in 2023 from $32 million in 2018 – up by a whopping 150%. I guess when you print $50 billion and flood markets with liquidity, ...
The furore. In case you didn’t notice there was a controversy in the weekend involving dolphins in a little town off the South Island. Don’t panic, they haven’t declared independence and resumed whaling, this was simply a sailing event.The problem began when racing was cancelled on the opening day of ...
For 20 years or more, the case for a meaningful capital tax gains has been mulled over and analysed to death, including by the tax working group chaired by Sir Michael Cullen. More than once, the International Monetary Fund has said a CGT would be a good idea for New ...
TL;DR: My top 10 news and analysis links this morning include:Today’s must-read: The Public Health Communications Centre (PHCC) call for urgent preventive action and a risk assessment survey of long covid in this briefing noteLocal scoop: NZ road deaths surpass OECD rates, so why is the govt reversing safety plans? ...
This story was originally published by Grist and is part of Covering Climate Now, a global journalism collaboration strengthening coverage of the climate story. This story is part of a collaboration with Grist and WABE to demystify the Georgia Public Service Commission, the small but powerful state-elected board that makes critical decisions about everything from raising ...
This is a guest post from Robert McLachlan Global warming is accelerating; 2023 was off the charts. We need to stop burning fossil fuels. In New Zealand, transport accounts for half of all fossil fuels burnt. In the Emissions Reduction Plan, transport emissions fall 41% by 2035. As the ...
Labour productivity has been receding rapidly over the past two years, reversing a post-lockdown rise. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: My six things to note in Aotearoa’s political economy as at 6:26am on Tuesday, March 26 include:Workers have been treading water in output per hour worked for 12 years, ...
TL;DR: The key events to watch in Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy in the week to April 2 include:Today, Parliament resumes sitting at 2pm for the second week of a two-week session. Officials for SIS and GCSB report their annual reviews in public to the Intelligence and Security Select Committee from 5.10pm.Tomorrow, ...
Faced with a barrage of criticism over the promised tax cuts from usually supportive commentators, Finance Minister Nicola Willis yesterday reaffirmed her intention to include them in this year’s Budget. The Government is up against it over the cuts just about every way it turns. Commentators like Fran O’Sullivan, Matthew ...
Here’s my pick of today’s substack posts as of 6:26pm on Monday, March 25: writes via his substack that Market-rate housing will make your city cheaper writes via his substack about the problems talking to double-cab ute (truck) drivers about their vehicles. today about moments of radicalisation in ...
Buzz from the Beehive Just before Christmas, Finance Minister Nicola Willis delivered something that was pitched as a mini-budget and brayed about the decisive action being taken to repair the Government books and support income tax relief in Budget 2024. In a statement headed Fiscal repair job underway. she introduced ...
My sister Belinda asked Dad yesterday what one word would describe Mum best. He said: vivacious.If you only knew her from the photos on the slideshow we've made for today,you might wonder about that, because the camera tended to lie with Mum.If ever she saw a camera pointed at her, she ...
There are two major public consultations closing in the next week, Auckland Council’s Long Term Plan (LTP), and the draft Government Policy Statement on Land Transport (GPS). Closing dates and times: LTP closes Thursday 28 February, at 11.59pm – a minute to midnight! GPS closes Tuesday 2 April, at 12pm noon – note that’s ...
From Kiwiblog’s David Farrar – Bryce Wilkinson writes: Senior Fellow Bryce Wilkinson’s analysis reveals that since March 2009, New Zealand has spent $158 billion more overseas than it has earned, but its NIIP has only fallen by $32 billion.Statistics New Zealand shows that receipts from overseas reinsurers have ...
Is she hinting that the Coalition Government will have to back down on key promises it made in Opposition? Brian Easton writes – The Minister of Finance, Nicola Willis, is telling an evolving story about her fiscal challenges. In Opposition she was confident that she could ...
Dear Nicola Willis,Right now you’ve probably got lots of competing demands coming at you. Ministers who’ve inherited quite a mess, or so you’ve told us, looking for money in the budget to improve things. I imagine that’s why they came to parliament - to make things better.You’ll have to make ...
The Local Government, Transport and Auckland Minister hasthreatened councils with intervention if they don’t merge water assets to take them off balance sheet, just as the now-repealed Three Waters plan directed. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: My six things of note this morning for Monday, March 25 include:Simeon ...
A listing of 36 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, March 17, 2024 thru Sat, March 23, 2024. Story of the week Thanks to John Mason having the stamina to sit down to watch "Climate - the Movie" ...
This morning the Q&A programme had Simeon Brown on to talk about National’s replacement for Three Waters. In case anyone’s forgotten the three are - drinking water, waste water, and sewerage. It’s quite important not to get them mixed up. In much the same way that you wouldn’t want to ...
Today’s newsletter comes with a mini-podcast conversation between me and my buddy Liv Tennet, talking about her time as a child actor in Lord of the Rings. It’s a conversation with a lot of giggles as she talks about falling off a horse, and becoming a meme. Read ...
The Desmog Climate Disinformation Database documents, "individuals and organisations that have helped to delay and distract the public and our elected leaders from taking needed action to reduce greenhouse gas pollution and fight global warming." It's a who's who of the organised climate change denial movement, in other words. In ...
Bob Edlin writes – A High Court judge has decided miscreants who have mana – or who claim to have mana – should be treated differently from miscreants who have none. It’s a ruling that suggests indigenous law-breakers have a better chance of securing a discharge without conviction ...
Welcome to the first, and possibly last, edition of Brickbats, Bouquets and Bull’s Wool. In which I’ll take a look at the events of the last week or so, and rate them.In such ratings the numbers usually have more to do with the opinions of the reviewer, than the actual ...
Roger Partridge writes – My earlier column this month, New Zealand’s highest court could be facing a turning point, prompted a flood of feedback from business readers and lawyers alike. A common query was what Parliament can do to restrain an overreaching judiciary. This week I discuss two steps Parliament ...
TL;DR: In today’s ‘six-stack’ of substacks at 6.16pm on Friday, March 22: writes about New Zealand's Building Boom—And What the World Must Learn From It over at his substack. challenges the Auckland Council’s use of a 3.8 degrees of warming forecast to oppose a wave-park and data centre project ...
Is she hinting that the Coalition Government will have to back down on key promises it made in Opposition?The Minister of Finance, Nicola Willis, is telling an evolving story about her fiscal challenges. In Opposition she was confident that she could deliver her promised income tax cuts. Appointed minister, she ...
Buzz from the Beehive Ministers of the Crown have drawn attention to one sector of the science sector which is unlikely to be subjected to heavy spending cuts, a state-funded broadcaster which is doing nicely, thank you, and a sporting event that had $5.4 million from the public purse puffed ...
Abbott’s Freestyle Libre sensors allow continuous glucose monitoring (CGM). The sensor is applied to the back of the patient’s arm, with a thin filament under the skin measuring glucose levels constantly. But it costs around $100 per sensor and must be replaced once every 14 days. Photo by BSIP/Universal Images ...
The Inspector General of Intelligence and Security (IGIS) recently released a report in which he exposes the existence of a foreign intelligence partner-controlled technological “capability” inside the headquarters of the GCSB, NZ’s 5 Eyes-affiliated signals intelligence collection and analysis agency. … Continue reading → ...
Peter Dunne writes – Nearly three decades after the introduction of MMP and multiparty governments there should be a greater level of understanding about their finer points than often appears to be the case. The reaction to the despicable outburst from the Deputy Prime Minister at the weekend highlights ...
The sweet kisses from fruit of summerHave slowly been turning dullerYou say, "those times"And "remember the daysWhen we went outside and there still was the shade?"Taking no reason into play…Autumn. Clear, blue days shortening to longer nights, growing colder. Aotearoa.That’s us. The temperature dropping, the looming car crash - so ...
Bryce Edwards writes – “It is often said that behind every great man is a great woman”. This is the pitch by the National Party Botany electorate branch to attend their “Ladies Afternoon Tea with Amanda Luxon”. For $110 including GST, you can turn up on Saturday 20 April ...
David Farrar writes – The Electoral Commission has published the expense returns for political parties for the 2023 election. I’ve put them in a table with how many votes a party got so we can see the spend per vote. National only spent $3.34 for every vote they got, almost ...
Winston Peters’ headline-making actions over the past week may have been a show of political power intended to strengthen his hand in Budget negotiations. It was no accident that his State of the Nation speech was as it was. He made it as New Zealand First Leader, not as Deputy ...
Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for paying subscribers in the last week included:Former Labour Finance Minister Grant Robertson bowed out of politics this week, giving a series of exit ...
Graham Adams writes — If you love the law or sausages, as the saying goes, best not to look too closely at how they are made. And after watching the orgy of self-pity when Newshub’s closure was announced on February 28, television journalism should definitely be added to the list of those ...
Venerable New Zealand political commentator, Chris Trotter (https://bowalleyroad.blogspot.com/), is a sad creature these days. Once one of the most reliable Leftist writers out there – Economic Left at that – Trotter seems to have absorbed the worldview of Auckland culture-war obsessives. It is not for me to categorise what he ...
The cruelty of short-term memory loss is that each time you ask where she is, you get the fresh shock and grief of the news. That was Dad's day yesterday.Comfortingly, it seems to be less so today. Last night he looked crumpled, today he seems more settled. There's a card ...
The Coalition Government’s plan to ‘get Auckland moving’ is a cuts cover-up that will ultimately cost Aucklanders more to move around the city, says Labour Auckland Issues spokesperson Shanan Halbert. ...
Slashing the Ministry of Pacific Peoples by 40% will have a devastating impact on pacific communities and further highlights how little this government cares about anything other than cutting taxes for the wealthiest few. ...
Labour has proposed an urgent inquiry to investigate the ever-increasing profits of supermarkets, aiming to lower costs for shoppers and food producers alike, says Labour Spokesperson for Commerce and Consumer Affairs Arena Williams and Primary Production Spokesperson Cushla Tangaere-Manuel. ...
With 14% of jobs on the line at the Ministry for Ethnic Communities, the responsible Minister Melissa Lee is failing to stand up for the very communities she’s meant to be representing. ...
COURT OF APPEAL: TRIFECTA OF VICTORY FOR NZ FIRST, TRIFECTA OF FAILURE FOR OPPONENTS For the third time since April 2020, New Zealand First has defeated the Serious Fraud Office and all those complicit in a malicious attack against a political party going about its lawful business in a lawful ...
The Green Party stands with people who live in public housing, people in dire housing need, experts and advocates in demanding better than the Government’s archaic approach to housing those who need our support the most. ...
New Zealand has recently lost the hosting rights of some major international sporting events including the America’s Cup, the Rugby Championship, Netball World Cup, and the Wellington Sevens. We are now at a huge risk of losing SailGP as well. And it won’t stop there. The recent issues with SailGP ...
A Member’s Bill drawn this week would modernise insurance law and make things fairer and more transparent for consumers, Christchurch Central MP Duncan Webb said. ...
The Minister for Disability Issues has confirmed she was aware of funding issues in mid-December and did nothing to stop it. On 14 March, she signed off on changes that were announced and implemented on 18 March without any consultation with disability communities. ...
Green Party MP Julie Anne Genter says her members' bill is an opportunity for the coalition government to plug the gap in electric vehicle incentives. ...
The National Government continues to talk about irresponsible tax cuts that will only drive up inflation, despite the country entering a technical recession. ...
The Minister for Disability Issues must act urgently to reinstate flexibility around the funding for disability support and apologise to disabled carers. ...
This story has been initiated by a leftie shill reporter who proactively sought to call a member of a former band, which disbanded twelve years ago, give their biased appraisal of what was said in my speech, and concocted a ham-fisted attempt at a story that does nothing but show ...
The Government has accepted Labour’s change to the Road User Charge (RUC) discount for hybrid vehicles, meaning there will still be some incentive for people to buy greener vehicles. ...
Many in the mainstream media have taken what was said in New Zealand First’s State of the Nation Speech in Palmerston North on Sunday and deliberately, deceitfully, and ignorantly misrepresented what I said and why I said it. The headlines and commentary on the news stated that I compared ‘co-governance ...
Kicking the most vulnerable people out of state housing and pushing them towards homelessness will result in a proliferation of poverty and trauma across our most vulnerable communities. ...
Te Pāti Māori co-leader and MP for Waiariki, Rawiri Waititi has penned a letter asking MPs to support his members bill to remove GST from all food. The bill is expected to go through its first reading in parliament this Wednesday. “I’m calling on all political parties to support my ...
Good afternoon. Thank you for, in your very busy lives, turning up to this meeting today. On October 14th last year New Zealanders overwhelmingly voted for change. That is exactly what this new government is bringing. New Zealand First campaigned to ‘take back our country’ and stop the disastrous economic ...
This year is about getting real with Kiwis and discussing the tough issues, as the National Government exacerbates inequality and divides New Zealand, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said ...
The Government adding Significant Natural Areas (SNAs) to its already roaring environmental policy bonfire is an assault on the future of wildlife that makes Aotearoa unique. ...
After 12 years of fighting to protect our moana we are finding ourselves back at square one and back at court. Today, the Environmental Protection Agency is sitting in Hawera to reconsider an application from Trans-Tasman Resources to dig up 50 million tonnes of the seabed in South Taranaki. This ...
Minister Shane Jones’ decision to step away from a seabed mining project is evidence of the murky waters surrounding the Government’s fast-track legislation. ...
The growth of Treaty of Waitangi clauses in legislation caused so much worry that a special oversight group was set up by the last government in a bid to get greater coherence in the publicservice on Treaty matters. When ministers first considered the need for tighter oversight in 2021, there ...
The growth of Treaty of Waitangi clauses in legislation caused so much worry that a special oversight group was set up by the last government in a bid to get greater coherence in the publicservice on Treaty matters. When ministers first considered the need for tighter oversight in 2021, there ...
The Coalition Government’s miscalculation saga continues as it has forgotten an eyewatering $90 million gap in its interest deductibility cost figures, say Labour Finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds and Revenue Spokesperson Deborah Russell. ...
He Pou a Rangi Climate Change Commission has today released advice that says if the Government doesn’t act now New Zealand is at risk of not meeting its climate goals. ...
The Coalition Government has today confirmed it is abandoning first home buyers who are struggling to get ahead, says Labour Finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds. ...
Transport Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed the passing of legislation to move light electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) into the road user charges system from 1 April. “It was always intended that EVs and PHEVs would be exempt from road user charges until they reached two ...
New Zealand is strengthening its ability to combat illegal fishing outside its domestic waters and beef up regulation for its own commercial fishers in international waters through a Bill which had its first reading in Parliament today. The Fisheries (International Fishing and Other Matters) Amendment Bill 2023 sets out stronger ...
Economists Carl Hansen and Professor Prasanna Gai have been appointed to the Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Committee, Finance Minister Nicola Willis announced today. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is the independent decision-making body that sets the Official Cash Rate which determines interest rates. Carl Hansen, the executive director of Capital ...
Apartment owners and buyers will soon have greater protections as further changes to the law on unit titles come into effect, Housing Minister Chris Bishop says. “The Unit Titles (Strengthening Body Corporate Governance and Other Matters) Amendment Act had already introduced some changes in December 2022 and May 2023, and ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters will travel to Egypt and Europe from this weekend. “This travel will focus on a range of New Zealand’s traditional diplomatic and security partnerships while enabling broad engagement on the urgent situation in Gaza,” Mr Peters says. Mr Peters will attend the NATO Foreign ...
Transport Minister Simeon Brown is encouraging all road users to stay safe, plan their journeys ahead of time, and be patient with other drivers while travelling around this Easter long weekend. “Road safety is a responsibility we all share, and with increased traffic on our roads expected this Easter we ...
About 1.4 million New Zealanders will receive cost of living relief through increased government assistance from April 1 909,000 pensioners get a boost to Superannuation, including 5000 veterans 371,000 working-age beneficiaries will get higher payments 45,000 students will see an increase in their allowance Over a quarter of New Zealanders ...
Ensuring social housing is being provided to those with the greatest needs is front of mind as the Government restarts social housing tenancy reviews, Associate Housing Minister Tama Potaka says. “Our relentless focus on building a strong economy is to ensure we can deliver better public services such as social ...
The Kermadec Ocean Sanctuary will not go ahead, with Cabinet deciding to stop work on the proposed reserve and remove the Bill that would have established it from Parliament’s order paper. “The Kermadec Ocean Sanctuary Bill would have created a 620,000 sq km economic no-go zone,” Oceans and Fisheries Minister ...
Dam safety regulations are being amended so that smaller dams won’t be subject to excessive compliance costs, Minister for Building and Construction Chris Penk says. “The coalition Government is focused on reducing costs and removing unnecessary red tape so we can get the economy back on track. “Dam safety regulations ...
The coalition Government is expanding the medium-scale adverse event classification to parts of the North Island as dry weather conditions persist, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay announced today. “I have made the decision to expand the medium-scale adverse event classification already in place for parts of the South Island to also cover the ...
The passing of legislation giving effect to coalition Government tax commitments has been welcomed by Finance Minister Nicola Willis. “The Taxation (Annual Rates for 2023–24, Multinational Tax, and Remedial Matters) Bill will help place New Zealand on a more secure economic footing, improve outcomes for New Zealanders, and make our tax system ...
Science, Innovation and Technology Minister Judith Collins and Tertiary Education and Skills Minister Penny Simmonds today announced plans to transform our science and university sectors to boost the economy. Two advisory groups, chaired by Professor Sir Peter Gluckman, will advise the Government on how these sectors can play a greater ...
The Budget will deliver urgently-needed tax relief to hard-working New Zealanders while putting the government’s finances back on a sustainable track, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The Finance Minister made the comments at the release of the Budget Policy Statement setting out the Government’s Budget objectives. “The coalition Government intends ...
The coalition Government will look at options to address a zoning issue that limits how much financial support Queenstown residents can get for accommodation. Cabinet has agreed on a response to the Petitions Committee, which had recommended the geographic information MSD uses to determine how much accommodation supplement can be ...
Cabinet has agreed to a short extension to the final reporting timeframe for the Royal Commission into Abuse in Care from 28 March 2024 to 26 June 2024, Internal Affairs Minister Brooke van Velden says. “The Royal Commission wrote to me on 16 February 2024, requesting that I consider an ...
The coalition Government is delivering an $18 million boost to New Zealanders needing to travel for specialist health treatment, Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says. “These changes are long overdue – the National Travel Assistance (NTA) scheme saw its last increase to mileage and accommodation rates way back in 2009. ...
The Government is recognising the innovative and rising talent in New Zealand’s growing space sector, with the Prime Minister and Space Minister Judith Collins announcing the new Prime Minister’s Prizes for Space today. “New Zealand has a growing reputation as a high-value partner for space missions and research. I am ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters has confirmed New Zealand’s concerns about cyber activity have been conveyed directly to the Chinese Government. “The Prime Minister and Minister Collins have expressed concerns today about malicious cyber activity, attributed to groups sponsored by the Chinese Government, targeting democratic institutions in both New ...
Independent Reviewers appointed for School Property Inquiry Education Minister Erica Stanford today announced the appointment of three independent reviewers to lead the Ministerial Inquiry into the Ministry of Education’s School Property Function. The Inquiry will be led by former Minister of Foreign Affairs Murray McCully. “There is a clear need ...
State Highway 1 across the Brynderwyns will be open for Easter weekend, with work currently underway to ensure the resilience of this critical route being paused for Easter Weekend to allow holiday makers to travel north, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Today I visited the Brynderwyn Hills construction site, where ...
Introduction Good morning to you all, and thanks for having me bright and early today. I am absolutely delighted to be the Minister for Infrastructure alongside the Minister of Housing and Resource Management Reform. I know the Prime Minister sees the three roles as closely connected and he wants me ...
New Zealand stands with the United Kingdom in its condemnation of People’s Republic of China (PRC) state-backed malicious cyber activity impacting its Electoral Commission and targeting Members of the UK Parliament. “The use of cyber-enabled espionage operations to interfere with democratic institutions and processes anywhere is unacceptable,” Minister Responsible for ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters and Defence Minister Judith Collins today announced New Zealand will provide logistics support for the upcoming Solomon Islands election. “We’re sending a team of New Zealand Defence Force personnel and two NH90 helicopters to provide logistics support for the election on 17 April, at the request ...
The European Union Free Trade Agreement Legislation Amendment Bill received Royal Assent today, completing the process for New Zealand’s ratification of its free trade agreement with the European Union. “I am pleased to announce that today, in a small ceremony at the Beehive, New Zealand notified the European Union ...
Public consultation on the terms of reference for the Royal Commission into COVID-19 Lessons has concluded, Internal Affairs Minister Hon Brooke van Velden says. “I have been advised that there were over 11,000 submissions made through the Royal Commission’s online consultation portal.” Expanding the scope of the Royal Commission of ...
Hardworking families are set to benefit from a new credit to help them meet their early childcare education (ECE) costs, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. From 1 July, parents and caregivers of young children will be supported to manage the rising cost of living with a partial reimbursement of their ...
A specialised Independent Technical Advisory Group (ITAG) tasked with preparing and publishing independent non-binding advice on the design of a "green" (sustainable finance) taxonomy rulebook is being established, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. “Comprising experts and market participants, the ITAG's primary goal is to deliver comprehensive recommendations to the ...
Defence Minister Judith Collins has thanked the Chief of Army, Major General John Boswell, DSD, for his service as he leaves the Army after 40 years. “I would like to thank Major General Boswell for his contribution to the Army and the wider New Zealand Defence Force, undertaking many different ...
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Good morning, it’s great to be here. First, I would like to acknowledge the New Zealand Institute of Building Surveyors and thank you for the opportunity to be here this morning. I would like to use this opportunity to outline the Government’s ambitious plan and what we hope to ...
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Before moving onto the substance of today’s address, I want to recognise the very significant and ongoing contribution the Breast Cancer Foundation makes to support the lives of New Zealand women and their families living with breast cancer. I very much enjoy working with you. I also want to recognise ...
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Interesting interview by Kim Hill with Dr Chris Smith, consultant clinical virologist at Cambridge University, on the Pfizer claims of a soon to be ready, 90% effective covid-19 vaccine.
A few points:
Re the 90% rate, and the first planned roll out in the UK of vaccinating 30% of the population, the rationale is that you vaccinate vulnerable people and their caregivers first. I can see how this would work in the UK which has widespread community transmission. I'm less clear about NZ, mostly because I haven't seen vaccination in the context of a plan around opening the borders. Vaccinating the frontline workers (border control, medical people) makes sense. Is anyone talking about beyond that?
permanent link not up yet.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/saturday
Audio link – https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/saturday/audio/2018772793/chris-smith-how-exciting-is-pfizer-s-vaccine-news
It occurs to me that there needs to be a vaccine against the hubris of the self-centred, know-all type who talks their way into a position such as a President, Prime Minister, Finance Minister, Chancellor, CEO etc. It would act against hubris with a steady-on there, let's look at the facts and likely outcomes, and discuss them widely with a summary of pros and cons that satisfy everyone concerned that the point they wish to make is covered in the content.
An anti-hubris vaccine is what should be the next 'great work' from the scientists. And it could be spread by droplets, so if you can get near enough and aerosol the air, it will reach the pushy, one-eyed, slightly mad people who seem to hypnotise their way into people's brains, probably from the projection or transference that people perceive.
Projection and transference are very similar. They both involve you attributing emotions or feelings to a person who doesn't actually have them. … Projection occurs when you attribute a behavior or feeling you have about a person onto them. Then, you may begin to see “evidence” of those feelings projected back at you. https://www.healthline.com/health/mental-health/transference
The double standard is what gets me. Low cost, low risk interventions that we knew about back in March like Vitamin D get pooh pooh'ed because they haven't been through large gold standard double blind, peer reviewed published studies … yet somehow a vaccine leaps to the front of the queue without having to leap over the same hurdles.
The cautions you list are all quite reasonable, yet the msm is largely silent on them.
Between the blatant political biases, the incessant click bait and the selective spin put on everything … it's reached the point where reading the news has become a masochistic act of psychological self abuse.
Any scientific research coming out of countries deemed to be adversaries of the US and its allies is immediately derided or ignored
https://www.deccanherald.com/science-and-environment/venezuela-s-maduro-presents-molecule-that-inhibits-covid-19-907001.html
And the financial heft and influence of the pharmaceutical companies can't be ignored .Never let a simple , cheap, achievable solution come between big pharma and its profits
Yes. The capture of the science by both political and business interests is deplorable. A similar story to climate science only this time the actors are wearing different hats.
Then there is this:
https://twitter.com/SebastianHantel/status/1325484241442975750/photo/1
If it works it will be the anti-inflammatory effect (as the cheap steroid gives – but not so well known, that same cheap steroid has been used in hospitals for lung/breathing difficulty amongst new borns for decades).
Dexamethasone?
Vitamins are regarded by 'those who know' as like the poor, they are always with us but they aren't up to much.
A 2020 public wants a click bait solution. an instant coffee vaccine. Yesterday.
No knowledge of what it takes, no understanding of the myriad, multi-layersed infinite variables and research involved.
The low status of scientists has been permanent, the disparagement and scorning of their work in the early stage of coronavirus very public. Every Tom Dick and Harry even if they'd done no science in high school or past their second year there, suddenly knew more about something experts had spent their lives immersed in
Now though we want them to magically click their fingers and save us.
I say, "Start by saving your fucking selves (and others) by doing some cheap, easy basic things. It ain't virological and epidemiological science."
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/what-pfizer-vaccine-results-mean-for-nz
I think this is a good article about the vaccine and quotes one of our leading experts in the field. It explains why 90% effectiveness is high and how that works.
I think there is a danger of fuelling anti vaccination sentiment and this isn't helpful at the moment
Vitamin D maybe helpful in the fight against Covid, but as a widespread intervention there would need to be gold standard studies. This is how medical science works and I am grateful for it.
Of course if leaders of the world had used the behavioural strategies available to control an infection like Covid 19 and the populace had of adopted these strategies, then the pandemic would be on the wane. Leaders of the world are clearly very imperfect and have ignored the science. The general public are also imperfect, e.g people drinking at bars on Ponsonby Road last night without social distancing when there is currently Covid in the community. FFS. I cannot understand why people would do this, but then that is just me.
How about we all start feeling grateful there is a vaccine? Small Pox, measles etc have either been eradicated or controlled by vaccines. And do all the right things to fight the virus before it is rolled out. The use of the Covid tracer app is frankly woeful……
What is the answer to 'frankly woeful' use of the Covid tracer app? Is that use and that App better than nothing – and it is just one small thing in our approaches?
https://www.pharmalive.com/sunshine-vitamin-could-help-boost-immunity-in-fight-against-covid-19/
Did a bit of my own research after reading Red Logix comment above. This is interesting about Vitamin D.
BTW Peter I strongly agree with your sentiment “Start by saving your fucking selves”
I am not sure what the answer is to the Covid apps use being woeful. Important that the authorities remind us and mandate its use.
I am a small business owner and in the position to ask my customers to sign in everytime.
Sadly fear is often a great motivator. Covid app use goes up when there is an outbreak…….
But yes Pete the tracer app is just one of the tools but an important one if we want to avoid lockdowns.
There has already been discussion about how the app doesn't work on a number of devices we already have. Therefore the thinking goes, we should buy new devices. That costs money and the people that are doing work of great value against Covid are not usually those with good incomes and resources. Solution – develop a new multi-platform? app or add-on that will work in present cellphones etc. Or make new cellphones available free to those who need them.
It seems that we are running out of steam for coping with outcomes. Once something is designed, we have done our bit says government and their facilitators for tech. If it doesn't work it's SEP.
And gummint remember, we are basically a poor country, so don't look at the real estate smiles for a measure, look at the large number of no-estate citizens. We talk about 'punching above our weight?', actually it means the bodies of NZ sinking slowly and the hands apparently punching are actually a gesture of a cry for help.
Vitamin D maybe helpful in the fight against Covid, but as a widespread intervention there would need to be gold standard studies.
Which is well and good, but it's not like Vitamin D is a novel and unknown substance. It's well understood, has known benefits, and cases of toxic overdose are extremely rare. Countries like Sweden have already been adding it to some foods, albeit at relatively low levels, for many years now. They plan on on increasing it now.
The biggest problem, I'd suggest, is that it's so very cheap.
Those taking aspirin did well when infected with the coronavirus. Similar to those who had good levels of Vitamin D – presumably in mitigating problems caused by the illness – no clots etc.
Vitamin D – "very cheap", easy to get, widely touted in the msm as a potential "game changer" in the fight against COVID-19 (even the esteemed Dr Fauci takes it), etc., etc.
https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/should-take-vitamin-d-stop-19194332
Over the last month the global number of active cases of COVID-19 has increased from 8.5 million to 15 million. IMHO the "biggest problem" is that civilisation is in the grip of a rapidly spreading pandemic. As long as taking vit. D supplements (in the safe range) doesn't compromise other common sense measures (physical distancing, hygiene, border controls, track and trace) to limit COVID spread, then what's not to like? Just don't forget about zinc (also in safe quantities):
https://www.nutraingredients-usa.com/Article/2020/10/26/NutraVideo-Zinc-vitamin-D-are-key-in-COVID-fight
https://www.health.harvard.edu/diseases-and-conditions/treatments-for-covid-19
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/31/add-vitamin-d-bread-milk-help-fight-covid-urge-scientists-deficiency-supplements
https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/wellbeing/2020/10/30/vitamin-d-lowers-covid-risks/
Thanks for the links DMK
Folic acid (a vitamin B) and fluoride are cheap too and have known health benefits with good safety profiles. There’s more to it than just simple economic arguments, there always is.
And pregnant women. This group could be the biggest risk to both mother and baby.
And pregnant women. This group could be the biggest risk to both mother and baby
Women of childbearing age and babies cannot be considered 'vulnerable'….give the new vaccine to those who it is ethical to experiment on.
I know what happened with thalidomide and how people had to fight the drug company. Not just the drug company but the Ministry of Health. I have a lot of time for your views on health agencies and the delivery of services.
I agree unethical to give the vaccine to pregnant women. There may even be a window period prior to conceiving which is unsafe.
That was in 1961/62. It was developed for morning sickness. Given that birth defects were not immediately obvious it is understandable that there was a lag. I’d think that most civil servants working in MoH (DoH, as it was known then) at the time have moved on.
The philosophy of science/medicine of the time was the problem though, not the lack of ability to see the future, and I still see science is god* people arguing that the damage that gets done is the price we pay for the good science brings.
*science as the one true way and better than all other ways of knowing sometimes to the exclusion of other ways of knowing.
Sure, it was a disaster but to somehow connect that example to a Covid-19 vaccine and MoH in present time seems plain fear mongering, IMO. There are risks, always will be, and these need to be managed properly. If we’re saying that we cannot trust the makers of that or any other Covid-19 vaccine, that we cannot trust MoH to do the right things by and for us, then we might as well stay in bed and wait for the end of time to come and get (take?) us. I struggle with outbursts of hyper-emotional theatrics and histrionics and self-reinforcing loops of fear, distrust, and paranoia. Let’s talk these things through calmly, kindly, and respectfully.
that we cannot trust MoH to do the right things by and for us,
You might want to Google "Ministry of Health Disability Support Services neglect and abuse.."
There's plenty of reading, and yes, some of it is "emotional" because that's how people get when a government organisation charged with providing care and support to a particular group of citizens fails. Time and fucking time again.
And if you think some of us are locked into this cycle of paranoia and distrust…you ought to have been sitting in various legal venues over the past two decades and listened how our beloved Crown Law argued the case against disabled New Zealanders and their families. This might give you some idea.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/abuse-in-care-inquiry-survivors-disappointed-no-apology-from-solicitor-general/MVITVSRDQGDRTW2N5B7BB5LX3I/
But to have a Crown Lawyer eyeball you in court and spew their bile…a whole new and novel experience. I wouldn't piss on any of them if they were on fire.
This is the Ministry of Health…charged with providing tax payer funded health and disability services and they treat citizens like so much worthless shit….
…and Crown Law…charged with ensuring New Zealand Laws are upheld…not treating innocent citizens as if we're guilty.
Fucking oath I wouldn't trust them.
Oh, and some of us have tried 'calm, kind and respectful' and ended up being treated like we have done wrong. That we had lied and cheated. That we would abuse and neglect. When it was the Ministry's own contracted providers doing the abusing and neglecting. And the Ministry lied and denied.
And yes Incognito I have crates full of evidence. I have evidence that senior bureaucrats at the MOH:DSS are so stunningly ignorant of the realities of the care required for some disabled people with the very highest needs that one doesn't know whether to guffaw at their outright idiocy or weep that they are in charge of peoples lives. So we do both.
And do I have to remind you again of the debacle that was the mask instructions for those requiring home based care? They fucking dug their toes in didn't they? Nevermind the precautionary principle, nevermind that Uncle Ashley knew so little of what was required for personal cares that he was waffling on about 'only if you're closer that 1 metre to the client'. What and ignorant fool…but I guess he was being advised by those ignorant numpties in DSS.
I have seen nothing over the past 10 months that raises my trust level in our Government and especially not for the MOH.
Oh and the 'risks'…none for Pfizer, they'll have immunity from any responsibility. They can't lose.
You always present your side so well.
It's not that the MoH is going to feed us a drug as bad as thalidomide. It's that the worldview is still similar. We're better, because we learned from thalidomide, but there is also reason to be cautious. It's a potent mix, a pandemic narrowly averted in NZ but still raging elsewhere, the push to save the economy, a health system that has been rationalised economically for decades, and a MoH with substantial cultural problems.
As for trusting the MoH, there are many people that good reason not to, unfortunately. Maybe we should amplify their voice a bit. It's not a black and white thing, criticising the MoH doesn't mean they're useless or can't be trusted in any capacity. But denial of the risks and problems doesn't help either.
"Science is a way of not fooling yourself." – it's not the only way.
Applies (in some measure) to all ways of not fooling yourself, IMHO.
I was looking at the assistance given then and now to the affected children, now adults. As well support to the mothers. This would be ongoing for both.
There were lots of legal wrangles, as you can imagine, and a few settlements with companies. What was the role of MoH in all that and what assistance did it give?
MoH attitude was send your child to an institution and have another baby to fill the void. Fight for disability assistance as well in your adult years.
I do not do scare mongering. I try to deal with the facts. History cannot be allowed to repeat itself with any medication/vaccine. I am not an anti vaxer, never have been and probably never will be.
When it came to legal wrangles any fool could see it was the thalidomide. It took years to settle a case and it would have been stressful to deal with the drug company which had the resources to squash you.
4 December 1961 thalidomide was recalled in NZ. It took the Department of Health until July 27 1962 to issue an official directive to destroy the remaining stocks of the drug.
https://www.google. com/amp/s/corpus.nz/chemical-legacies-thalidomide-in-new-zealand/amp/
Not sure why the link failed.
Deleted the space after “https://www.google.”
https://www.google.com/amp/s/corpus.nz/chemical-legacies-thalidomide-in-new-zealand/amp/
Thanks
A bit more on that 90% efficacy/10% failure: it seems they were only looking for symptomatic people, and weren't testing for asympotmatic-but-infectious people. So depending on how "efficacy" is defined. That also has implications for what % of the population needs to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity.
Another factor is it isn't clear how failed the failures were. The data set probably isn't big enough for the answer yet, but if the vaccine didn't completely prevent disease, but still reduced the likelihood of a mild infection progressing to severe disease or death, that's still a very worthwhile outcome, even if it falls short of being included in the the "efficacy" definition.
Everything I've seen suggests there isn't yet a clear plan on which groups are priorities for early vaccinations. Just vague generalities about front-line staff (most likely to be exposed), and vulnerable groups, including Maori and Pasifika, disabled, elderly, those with illness that put them at extra risk, elderly etc. I haven't yet seen anything about when it might get extended to those likely to be in contact with large numbers of people, ie teachers, bus drivers, hospitality staff etc.
…vulnerable groups, including Maori and Pasifika, disabled
Ironically the groups with greatest reason not to trust the government.
https://theundefeated.com/features/half-of-black-adults-say-they-wont-take-a-coronavirus-vaccine/
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/less-trust-among-maori-in-vaccines-and-gps-study-suggests/3K7UXAYC3AAFTED2VER735ZQEQ/
And after the outrageous way the MOH decided disabled people and their home based carers did not need PPE, especially masks, unless symptomatic my guess is that the disabled might be a little cautious also. I still reckon the Ministry was hoping that Te Virus would carry off more of this vulnerable group.
Oh well.
UK plan seems to be 30% vax rate, focused on the vulnerable.
The issue in NZ is the borders. Yes, vaccinating isolation hotel staff, medical staff and border control people makes sense, but talking about herd immunity in NZ doesn't make sense unless we also talk about how/when the borders would open. I assume we're not having that conversation yet because we don't know how effective any vaccine will be, nor how long it confers immunity. The rush from my pov is for countries who have out of control community transmission, and no good way to contain that now (although I assume there is a useful strategy in doing lockdowns, distancing, masks etc *and vaccinating).
My problem there is that because it will be rushed, there are likely to be people who have adverse reactions, and they will be seen as collateral damage in large part for the economu. But it remains to be seen if they will be taken seriously, how adverse reactions will be reported and monitored, and whether those people will get support. Lots of shitty anti/pro vax wars stuff is really going to bite us now.
Am also mindful that NZ is bad at supporting chronically ill people, and I haven't seen anything to suggest we will be better on this with long haul covid. It's not just about the death rate and the economy.
Maths dude interviewed by Hill this morning made some good points about vaccine hesitant people, we shouldn't treat them as stupid or ostracise them, but instead talk through the issues people are concerned about for themselves and their kids. This seems paramount now if we don't want a bigger anti-vax backlash.
Yeah all the points are true. It's a glimmer of hope, not a guarantee.
The things that separate the pfizer thing from any other magic bullet so far is that at least a decent-sized trial is under way and close enough to deliver intial results, and also pfizer is an established industry actor – it's not a startup looking for money, promising the earth, and with one magic black box they promise will be amazeballs when it finally works.
It could all go tits up on the cusp of production. But at least it's progress.
Point 2 give me a minor quibble, though. If the success metric is immunity, 90% is amazeballs. Some figure for herd immunity people were throwing around a while back was 60%. So even if 35% don't get it, that's a population immunity rate of 67% when we only need 60% to stop clusters emerging (assuming a random distribution of vaccine uptake). So 90% effective is probably good enough.
Contrast with measles(?) vaccine which I seem to recall needs in the range of 100% uptake to stop community spread outright.
90% across most of the population once the vaccine is effective and we know how it works in human populations, would be amazing. I'm not sure how close we are to that. I suspect 2021 reality will be more uneven, less certain. I also think there is a case for letting other countries get enough supplies to do whole populations before places like NZ (esp countries that are struggling to contain covid because of resource issues).
Child slavery alive and well at Gloriavale Mbie labour inspectors fail child slavery victims.
Gloriavale,exclusive brethren etc can practice financial sexual abuse and modern day slavery .
Time for these outfits to be fully prosecuted.
What do the children know of the world at Gloriavale other than hard work, the Bible and not having a voice?
Children as young as 16 marry at Gloriavale. Are forced marriages going on there and the expectation to breed?
Treetop – Are forced marriages going on there and the expectation to breed?
I would say probably. There would be expectations of marriage, and to a chosen person. I have family who seem to be in a sect; my young relative did very well at school developing a skill in draughtsmanship, but got married to a young man from the group when she was about 17. And babies came soon. Life as an adult had just begun, but maturing, developing her own skills, abilities as a male would, was not to be encouraged. And it would have probably taken her out of the group which grows, tight-knit. There are quite a few groups, patriarchal, like this around. They live apparently normal lives, but constrained and controlled. If they home-school then the children are isolated and may be deprived of contact with other children outside the chosen circle, and are like hens being fed, clucking around, and laying eggs, all for the greater good.
There are a set of well-written books at Young Adult level by Fleur Beale such as 'I Am Not Esther' that deal with life in a sect. https://www.penguin.co.nz/authors/fleur-beale
A youngish mother of 11 from the Gloriavale community drowned in November 2018. I don't know how old she was but that's constant pregnancies. https://www.smh.com.au/world/oceania/mother-of-11-from-nz-sect-drowns-after-falling-into-swollen-river-20181109-p50eyt.html
They have Leaders imposed on them apparently. And are involved with other similar groups in other countries. The Sydney Morning Herald notes that the early group was started by an Australian. (This reminds me of Jones from USA who took his group out of his country to South America; which ended unhappily in violence and murder).
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/108473460/gloriavale-leaders-daughterinlaw-found-dead-on-west-coast?rm=m
Last week, former US Navy engineer Howard Temple was confirmed as the new head of the community.
A former member, who still has family in the community, said Temple was appointed the new "overseeing shepherd" after the death of Hopeful Christian. Temple, who Christian had appointed his successor, recently spent several weeks visiting a Gloriavale off-shoot in India, he said.
Gloriavale has a long relationship with India, supporting an evangelical organisation and setting up a community in Tirunelveli, in southern India.
I will read the links supplied.
Those who leave a sect need an organisation to go to, to help with a new start in life due to having lived in an abusive and controlled invironment. The loss of family would be hard to deal with.
There is not much difference between a refugee and a person escaping an intolerable situation when it comes to assistance required to live a meaningful life or to escape persecution.
You're right Treetop from what I have read.
Long-ish interview with Democratic polling & data expert David Shor.
https://www.politico.com/amp/news/magazine/2020/11/12/2020-election-analysis-democrats-future-david-shor-interview-436334?__twitter_impression=true
Well one thing you can be sure of is that he Democratic establishment will learn nothing from almost losing to Trump, as in 2016 they will blame the voters and progressives for their failures.
Democratic leaders play a ridiculous blame game with progressives
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/11/08/democratic-leaders-play-ridiculous-blame-game-with-progressives/
He would be more believable if he spent time showing the disenfranchisement effect of Republicans utterly screwing district boundaries to favour white people against all categories of non-white for decades.
Also he would have done better if he accepted where demographic shifts really helped Democrats over time.
California used to be regularly Republican – but their last win there was under Reagan. A Democrat president since Carter would simply be ruled out if that hadn't followed the demographic trend to support Democrats.
https://www.latimes.com/projects/la-pol-ca-california-voting-history/
Demographics did count there.
They also certainly counted in Georgia this year (which most MSM broadcasters have called this morning) and as this commentary notes, demographic change in Georgia and other sunbelt states was critical there.
https://www.vox.com/21551547/georgia-competitive-democrats-biden-2020
Now, there may well be lazy Dem-leaning commentators who proposed the inevitability of change.
But who would have thought that Bill Clinton would take out those solid mid-western states like Louisiana, Tennessee, Kentucky, Missouri – with growing Black voter bases? Democrats would, of course. That's 1992 and 1996.
Then of course there's Obama, who would compare his first election to Shor's analysis and just laugh.
A Democratic president needs luck, and the right candidate, and you also need the right demographic headwinds.
^^^^
This
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/11/democrats-statehouses-republican-control-gerrymandering-redistricting-census.html
Some time ago there was a post to The Standard about a radio report saying that a survey had indicated that there was a minority of New Zealanders that supported Trump – mostly also National supporters – does anyone recall when that was?
This is a survey of Trump support in NZ.
The radio report will have been about the study at this link. A personal experience of 'debating' with a relative and listening to Trumpeters losing their minds on talkback before and since the US election has been equally revealing:
https://theconversation.com/who-are-donald-trumps-supporters-in-new-zealand-and-what-do-we-know-about-them-149424
Some titbits from the link above.
Of the 55,147 who answered the question in the mid-2020 survey, 6,833 said they hoped Trump would win. So, who are these Kiwi Trumpers? And what do they really think?
Even demographic spread
…Kiwi men are more than twice as likely to support Trump than women — a much wider gender gap than was found in the US after the 2016 election.
Kiwi Trumpers are distributed evenly across lower and middle income brackets, and support declines only slightly in the upper income brackets.
Perhaps surprisingly, 15.6% of Pasifika respondents and 20% of those who ticked the “gender-diverse” box hoped Trump would win — above the overall 11% result….
Only 20% of National supporters overall said they hoped Trump would win. But this sub-group of National supporters made up 56% of the entire cohort of Kiwi Trumpers. A further 23% of Kiwi Trumpers supported ACT. So, the National Party is the preferred party of the Kiwi Trumper.
Nov.6/20 by Grant Duncan Associate Professor, School of People, Environment and Planning, Massey University
In all seriousness, who gives a shit?
We simply won't get a Trump here given the differences in political systems and I am assuming 99% of those polled wouldn't be able to vote in the US.
It is obvious you don’t give a shit and you obviously didn’t read past the headline. Nobody in this thread was joking.
We don't live in the US and who cares how many kiwis support Trump?
He is out anyway and he doesn't run NZ in the first place.
Unless you can find an equivalent in NZ, which there isn't, it is a bit of a stupid thing to try to compare us to.
Having said said that, I know some people think we are comparable to the US for some odd reason,.
We’re much better than the US for some odd reason. I knows it.
Well here is a depressing but unsurprising unpacking of the neo con, war mongering Biden cabinet…yuk
As Trump rejects US election, Biden signals continued regime change abroad
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0AWTYGZnkvk
I think I can fairly say I have had a longtime very low opinion of D. Jobless Drumpf's cognitive processes. But even I'm having trouble with the idea this is actually from him. To the point that I've tried to find evidence that this is a spoof. But Daniel Dale appears to be a genuine reporter for CNN, heavily involved in fact-checking, and it’s not April 1, so …
https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1327284770984914945
Mind you, Trumps press conference on election night 'I've won, stop counting" set the tone for what was to come!
There needs to be more discussion about politics and society and how we go about ordering and disordering what we have. I think we should have regular regional Ted Talks from people who have a range of views and can present a reasoned case.
Not a religious pulpit as such, but people aware of how neo-lib is trying to traduce religion and our natural virtuous instincts. I refuse to be merely an object in a business culture experiment, being manipulated to do something, a pigeon activated to peck for whatever by remote control.
Our information sources are sadly lacking and more frequently have a bias because of the commenter being a paid mouthpiece from some firm, or a straight PR providing focussed promotion and advertising. How are we to learn, comprehend and place into a framework of understanding about what is happening in our fast-moving society? Parents, school, broadcast media – all with bias and tending to dislike learning from reading, thought, questioning and discussion, even debates are competitive, but what if there is no straight-out or easy answer, just equivocal solutions each tailored for the special situations occurring! Instead the preference is for physicality – sports, running, biking, walking is more spoken about than encouraged.
Information, news; the old idea of the Fourth Estate here – I wonder if it is still being fed to trainee journalists?
The term Fourth Estate or fourth power refers to the press and news media both in explicit capacity of advocacy and implicit ability to frame political issues. Though it is not formally recognized as a part of a political system, it wields significant indirect social influence. Fourth Estate – Wikipedia
The press is called the fourth estate in the United States usually because they observe the political process. They do this to make sure the participants do not exploit the democratic system. They play a crucial role in the outcome of political issues and candidates. Fourth Estate – Open School of Journalism
You're soaking in it.
That's why my hands are so soft and gentle though touching facts hot and hard to face.
Gordon Campbell wants someone to sing a soothing lullaby to overheated David Seymour.
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL2011/S00075/on-adrian-orrs-lending-scheme-the-collins-reshuffle-and-the-trump-coup.htm
Seymour’s calling out of Reserve Bank governor Adrian Orr’s recent stimulatory actions as “Muldoonist” and “unorthodox” (while slagging Orr himself as a “liability”) should be treated as a tantrum best handled by putting Seymour back in his cot again, until he cries himself to sleep.
I heard Seymour and realised in a RNZ interview we wouldn't hear his solutions. The format suits him, he can spray and walk away.
No doubt he will write a book about how he would start form scratch and reorganise things so that Adrian Orr is not in the situation where he has to make the decisions he has made.
He may have done in on his pre-election rounds. Or not. No votes in that.
The long arm of the law is on it's way.
https://twitter.com/MartynMcL/status/1326916581524377600
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1326917694642335746.html
What the Scots think of Donald:
Been posted many times before, but it just never gets old:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3pbTmXsfiYk&index=1148&list=LLKsyGall6UtnSY3gDy-pGGA
How soon is it too soon to test for Covid and how late is it too late to test for Covid?
Today a weak positive case, a neighbour at the Vincent Street Apartments. They were previously tested. It is looking like a second test a week apart might be the way to go with some close contacts and to isolate until after the second test result is known.
I have given it a thought if the pipes between the Vincent Street Apartments and the Millennium Hotel are shared by connection and back flow could be an issue.
What is it we would really like the government to do when it has got all the important things accomplished?
I would like fireworks to be available only for licensed users at public functions. NO private sales. Then they wouldn't be popping up all through the year, November 5th bangs on and on upsetting and likely to cause fires and eye damage when aimed wrongly. Health and safety could prove their worth by forcing intelligent laws on this but….
And I hate the sirens we have. So strident, so high and loud, the dogs on the hill howl and I feel like it too. Here are some ideas for better from the inimitable Bill Bailey (I can't remember what that means but think, good).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oGSNxkCIln0&lc=UghU8IB6BES7kHgCoAEC
Did I hear correctly on NatRad that the Pfizer vaccine needs to be stored and transported at MINUS 80 ( F,or C? ) . Whichever it pretty much buggers it as a cure for most of the world.
-60 c i believe.
Bit of a challenge.
That's what tuna are frozen at – doable for good enough reasons.
It's below minus 70C. Dry ice is minus 78C, so containers surrounded by dry ice will do the job. Pfizer has developed a transport container that will keep it cold enough for 10 days, or up to 25 days if the dry ice is replenished. So it's a challenge to be sure, but not insurmountable.
The ebola vaccine had similar requirements, and they managed to get it out into the field. Although in the end, the vaccine was late to the party and public health measures had already controlled the outbreak.
https://time.com/5911543/pfizer-vaccine-cold-storage/
Thanks Andre.
Has the conniving fool in the White House made his intentions clear yet?
Is the media thinking everything is ok now?
No
https://twitter.com/AriBerman/status/1327335742843084802?s=20
No, but still…..
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/13/can-donald-trump-stay-in-office-second-term-president-coup
The 5.4 million difference in the popular vote was largely from California
Joe Biden (D) 10,757,884 63.82%
Donald J. Trump (R) 5,736,893 34.03%
The winning Electoral College vote was largely decided in five major Democrat controlled cities: Philadelphia and Pittsburgh (Pennsylvania), Milwaukee (Wisconsin), Detroit (Michigan) and Atlanta ( Georgia).
The Elections have been dangerously close elsewhere which seems to have emboldened the losing side!
Sorry Maurice, but your overview of the election results neglects the margins by which Trump beat Biden in the 25 states that he did win, and neglects the size of the vote in each state where Biden flipped the state.
Wisconsin 20,500+
Michigan 125,000+
Pennsylvania 75,000+
Arizona 10,500+
Georgia 14,000+
(as at 8.45 am NZDST)
Most political commentators suggest that the size of these margins are well outside the margin which would be susceptible to being overturned on recount, or by the odd instance of voter fraud.
Biden beat Trump by over 900,000 votes in New York state which is heavily Republican outside of the City. The fact that a city's population might influence the outcome of a state's voting preference, does not mean that the popular vote has no relevance.
New York State is indeed interesting with over 2 million votes yet to be counted.
Biden votes are largely concentrated in the city counties – about 14 of them whereas Trump votes are spread out over the less populous counties – about 48 of them
With about 84% of the expected vote counted the results as at 5.11 pm ET are displayed here:
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/new-york-president-results
The expression a death by a thousand cuts, just leave him to it. Have a plan for needing to detain him when necessary where national security is at stake.
What to do with the president would be being discussed. At some point intervention may be required for his own welfare.
There used to be a term in NZ of 'sectioning' someone who had noticeably lost their marbles.
The Mental Health Act still mandates treatment for a mental illness whether or not a patient agrees.
https://communitylaw.org.nz/community-law-manual/chapter-16-mental-health/compulsory-treatment-orders/
Is it possible that the present incumbent of the White House will appear at Biden's presidential inauguration on Jan 20 2021, claiming it as his own for a second term? After all, given the recent post US election insane ramblings and utterings from Trump, I doubt anything he says or does from now on will be surprising!
And here it is. Trump’s whole office is stark raving bonkers!
.nzherald.co.nz/world/us-election-white-house-press-secretary-kayleigh-mcenanys-bizarre-
“Bonkers” lets Trump et al. off the hook, IMHO. They’ve taken a stand against democracy.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/us-election-white-house-press-secretary-kayleigh-mcenanys-bizarre-trump-claim
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/us-election-white-house-press-secretary-kayleigh-mcenanys-bizarre-trump-claim/GUN2QDKR6SM7RHQTYVCAR2ZVTY/
Thanks Anne – the most problematic link yet?
There is a culture of denial and false hope in the Presidents inner circle. This cannot continue. It is one thing to want a recount and another to not admit that Biden won.
Seems like everyones happy 'bout Biden winning, I wonder if Julian Assange is, we will see what sort of a humanist Biden turns out to be, nothing short of dropping the case against Julian will tell a tale, but dont hold your breath.
Possibly when it comes to treating Assange right and giving him release plus a rap over the knuckles, it'll be like the old song 'I'm just biding my ti.ime, That's the kind of guy I am."
I’m as happy about Biden winning as I’m about NZ Labour winning an absolute majority.
gold
(nsfw)
https://twitter.com/RexChapman/status/1326252204999708673
A long thread with something for everyone: Russians, Dan Bongino, Steve Bannon, The Epoch Times, Candace Owens, Cassandra Fairbanks, the husband of Paul senior's granddaughter with political connections to both Pauls and Mitch McConnell, the hospitality coordinator at a tRump hotel steakhouse at a Trump hotel, Giuliani’s former law firm and lots more.
https://twitter.com/davetroy/status/1327253991936454663
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1327253991936454663.html
Shoutout to Deborah Russell and team for actually holding a Thankyou Volunteers Event today to the people on the ground who actually worked for weeks on the election in New Lynn.
Don't usually hear of MPs taking the time to actually thank us drones.
Onyer Deborah.
And we smashed them.
‘Thank-you' events have been around for decades. They usually took the form of a BBQ put on by the candidate and more often than not took place at their home.
Too late, sport, the damage is done.
After President Barack Obama was elected in 2008 and the tea party (which pushed to slash federal spending) emerged, Mr. Koch threw his weight behind the new movement and its candidates. “We did not create the tea party. We shared their concern about unsustainable government spending, and we supported some tea-party groups on that issue,” Mr. Koch wrote in an email. “But it seems to me the tea party was largely unsuccessful long-term, given that we’re coming off a Republican administration with the largest government spending in history.”
Mr. Koch said he has since come to regret his partisanship, which he says badly deepened divisions. “Boy, did we screw up!” he writes in his new book. “What a mess!”
Mr. Koch is now trying to work together with Democrats and liberals on issues such as immigration, criminal-justice reform and limiting U.S. intervention abroad, where he thinks common ground can be found. He has partnered with organizations including the LeBron James Family Foundation, the American Civil Liberties Union and even a handful of Democratic state legislative campaigns. In 2019, he renamed the Koch network of about 700 donors as Stand Together.
https://archive.li/fbLOx (wsj)
Government spending isn't unsupportable. In fact, its government spending that empowers the economy.
What's unsustainable is private profit. Money taken out of the economy and not spent back into it.
Trump vs Biden – the rap battle.
We seem to be cornering Ardern and Robertson. Y'know about the people and reality. James Shaw, of all people, is trying out his talking voice re housing.
Us Left interested.
Why I voted for Andrew Little. Their magic talk for nothing.
You have to imagine how little i care for their moth shadows.