web analytics

Open mike 15/02/2021

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, February 15th, 2021 - 92 comments
Categories: open mike - Tags:

Open mike is your post.

For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose.

The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).

Step up to the mike …

92 comments on “Open mike 15/02/2021 ”

  • Comments are now closed

  1. Sacha 1
    15 February 2021 at 10:22 am

    Why building more houses will not fix prices – economist Brian Easton. https://www.pundit.co.nz/content/the-sources-of-house-price-inflation

    The inflation driver is financial speculation based on leveraged borrowing. Until that is addressed, house prices will continue to boom.

    • mikesh 1.1
      15 February 2021 at 12:23 pm

      I'm inclined to agree. Shortages are simply an intractable backdrop against which interest, and monetary policy generally, serve to exacerbate the problems that shortages cause.

    • Ad 1.2
      15 February 2021 at 1:44 pm

      Why must house prices be fixed?

      • weka 1.2.1
        15 February 2021 at 1:50 pm

        because people need to be able to afford to live in them.

        • Ad 1.2.1.1
          15 February 2021 at 2:01 pm

          If you had answered:

          Because people need to be able to afford to own them, I would have agreed.

          House price fixing concerns ownership. It certainly has secondary effects, but mostly, the price of the house is the cost of owning it.

          Easton is making some massive correlations, but no useful causes.

          • RedLogix 1.2.1.1.1
            15 February 2021 at 2:06 pm

            but mostly, the price of the house is the cost of owning it.

            As I've said a few times before; if you think the rent is high – try owning it.

            • Sabine 1.2.1.1.1.1
              15 February 2021 at 3:58 pm

              owning and renting are two different things. And renting to use for a while should never cost more then owning does, and currently renters pay the mortgage, the interest, and what ever else the owner wants out of the property.

              btw, my mortgage that i pay currently is 200$ per week.

              you can't even rent a dog kennel for that amount anywhere in NZ.

              • I Feel Love …
                15 February 2021 at 7:58 pm

                I reckon, my mortgage is $210 a week, if I rented the same house it would be double, and with no return. Free insulation, cheap rates, I could also halve that if I got a flatmate (which I may do once my kids leave). I don't take this for granted, I realise I'm one of the lucky few.

            • Adrian Thornton 1.2.1.1.1.2
              15 February 2021 at 6:01 pm

              Have to strongly disagree with you there RL, we are in our first own house (nearly freehold) after renting for 30+years the last 15 of those with three children, owning your own home has for us probably been pretty similar, maybe a bit more expensive but not a lot, and especially when you take into account all the benefits…the main one is not having to deal with Ma&Pa landlords they are generally like spawns from hell, they have made renting a fucking nightmare, it is awful, and no country that has the resources NZ has should let it’s citizens endure that type of life…welcome to free market liberalism I guess, markets operating just as they should…Thanks David Lange.

              Gone are the old days when you would rent a house and live in it for years and hardly be bothered as long as you paid your rent and maintained the property…our last ten years of renting were a disaster (with one exception) as far as landlords went…even if owning a home was/is more expensive, how can you put a price on the endless stress and worry and more importantly the hundred of subtle ways it damages and undermines children having little to no long term home security.

          • McFlock 1.2.1.1.2
            15 February 2021 at 2:12 pm

            Nope.

            Owning a home provides security that no amount of rental law cannot.

            The trouble is that house prices do not reflect the cost of owning a home. They reflect the cost of the expected medium-term capital gains (post bright-line). It wasn't a problem when they reflected the expected gains upon retirement and downsizing, but now who honestly expects to be in that house for thirty years? Or do they expect to flip it in ten years or so?

            • Ad 1.2.1.1.2.1
              15 February 2021 at 2:17 pm

              Agree with the security bit. I've seen the pro's and cons of home ownership debated at length in New Zealand literature. They're pretty even.

              I'd like to see some proper policy work done on the effects of Andrew Little's current extension of the Bright Line test, and the likeley extension to 10 coming up. Doesn't seem to have made much difference to house prices at all – so if it's not working as intended it should be removed.

              • Ed1 …
                15 February 2021 at 2:51 pm

                Perhaps that is a point of the Easton paper – no one issue will solve the housing crisis. After all the current presumption of intent is flawed, but reversing it would mean that gains up to the time legislation takes effect are likely to remain tax free, so most people would not pay much tax for many years; but owners of rental properties may hold for longer to defer the payment. Requiring a bigger amount of real (not borrowed) equity may be possible , but that would be easier if we increased wages so that the government does not need social welfare or Working for Families to enable new home buyers to afford to live with a family.

                • Ad …
                  15 February 2021 at 3:14 pm

                  If he had started with the 1% homeless crisis – which is about as bad as it gets in the OECD, I would have agreed with him. He didn't.

              • McFlock …
                15 February 2021 at 4:01 pm

                Pretty even for people who can afford to choose their housing tenure type.

                For people at the mercy of a speculative landlord, not so much.

            • Stuart Munro 1.2.1.1.2.2
              15 February 2021 at 3:48 pm

              I have a good landlord. Doesn't put the rent up every week etc. . But a batten holder wore out 8 months ago – and it only got fixed last month – no bedroom light all winter. Rentiers are oppressors, even the the good ones.

              And of course the inability of contemporary NZers to afford their own homes is the final disproof of neoliberalism. It was supposed to make us more prosperous if you remember – on the contrary, it has impoverished us. Voters, looking at neoliberals think: "Were you really that stupid that you swallowed the hype in spite of our warnings? Or were you just corrupt?"

      • McFlock 1.2.2
        15 February 2021 at 2:07 pm

        Because their speculative growth is entrenching even more deeply NZ's trans-generational class system.

        Even if a full-time worker can rustle up a 10-20% deposit, I strongly suspect most NZers probably wouldn't earn enough to service the mortgage on a median-priced house.

        For me, it was break-even with no margin for error five years ago. Now? It's a joke. And I have a good job, no dependants, and a retirement fund, but houses are more than twice the price. Almost literally – I looked up that house recently. It's gone from $230k to $450k. Has any actual worker's salary doubled in five years?

        • Ad 1.2.2.1
          15 February 2021 at 2:13 pm

          Absolutely the personal stories are valid.

          I'm kinda waiting for evidence of the K-shaped economy to hit.

          And it's indisputable that salaries haven't kept up with house prices.

          But if Easton had tracked house prices, salaries, and national home ownership, he would have seen no collapse in average ownership at all. Even as prices skyrocketed.

          In fact we're still better than nearly all other developed countries for home ownership.

          Easton calls it speculation. 65% of us call it risk management.

          • Pat 1.2.2.1.1
            15 February 2021 at 2:34 pm

            Might pay to check the stats before making wild claims

            • At the time of the 2018 Census, New Zealand’s homeownership rates were at their lowest since the 1950s.
            • Homeownership peaked in the 1990s, at 73.8 percent of households, but by 2018, homeownership had fallen to 64.5 percent of households.

            https://www.stats.govt.nz/reports/housing-in-aotearoa-2020#:~:text=At%20the%20time%20of%20the%202018%20Census%2C%20New%20Zealand's%20homeownership,to%2064.5%20percent%20of%20households.

            and falling.

            Easton’s analysis is sound and he is not alone with the conclusions….it has been well canvassed and the only major dispute is around to what degree other factors impact.

            • Ad 1.2.2.1.1.1
              15 February 2021 at 3:12 pm

              Oh don't worry I checked. Which is why I stated 65% home ownership.

              And I also checked on the international benchmarks for developed countries.

              It's barely moved downward since the last time they measured. You can check.

              You just have to read beyond the hysteria.

              • Pat …
                15 February 2021 at 3:25 pm

                stating 65% mean sweet FA unless you also state from where it came and what the trend is…as you well know.

                and I too have checked…"and falling"

                "Home Ownership Rate in New Zealand is expected to reach 64.29 percent by the end of 2020, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations."

                If youre not already you should be a politician

                • Ad …
                  15 February 2021 at 4:06 pm

                  The home owner percentage has barely moved since 2013.

                  In the site you cite, go into the full statistical report, fig 15 p 28.

                  https://www.stats.govt.nz/reports/housing-in-aotearoa-2020

                  Maybe 2021 changes all of that, looking forward to the evidence.

                  • Pat …
                    15 February 2021 at 5:36 pm

                    You will get your evidence (sadly)…

                    "In 1991, 61% of people aged 25-29 owned their own home, but by 2018 this had dropped to 44%.

                    Ownership rates have also fallen for people in their 30s, dropping from 79% in 1991 to 59% in 2018."

                    https://www.interest.co.nz/property/108312/home-ownership-levels-are-continuing-decline-especially-younger-people

                    figures 17 -20 from the report if I recall correctly

                    And the explanation is glaringly obvious, the inflated prices relative to income

                    • RedLogix …
                      15 February 2021 at 5:39 pm

                      And as outlined below there is more to it than just economics – it's the relentlessly increasing age of first marriage that also means that 20-29 age group just aren't interested in buying homes.

                      Another factor is the rise in divorce rates – usually one partner will finish up renting for a period afterward.

                      This doesn't discount the obvious affordability issue in play – but it does suggest there are often more factors involved than the headlines make out.

                    • Pat …
                      15 February 2021 at 7:06 pm

                      Of course, unmarried people dont buy houses….how could i miss that.

                      And the 20 -29 year olds arnt interested in buying homes….because they increasingly cant afford them….the same applies to those in their 30s…and the ones that eventually can take considerably longer to raise the increasing deposits.

                      Those decreased ownership rates in the cohorts coming through are going to have a major impact on the total ownership rates as the proportionately higher ownership rate cohort approaching 70 move into care/die

              • arkie …
                15 February 2021 at 3:33 pm

                30 per cent of homes are owned by people who only own one home.

                Another 13 per cent is owned by people who have two homes. Six per cent is owned by people who have three homes. Ten per cent is owned by people who have between four and six homes.

                And another 10 per cent is owned by those who have between seven and 20 homes.

                I would argue one can own multiple houses but only one is ever your home but that's an aside.

                To do a real comparison a similar breakdown as above is needed for the historical data.

                https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/news/business/mum-and-dad-landlords-own-more-than-a-third-of-property/

            • McFlock 1.2.2.1.1.2
              15 February 2021 at 3:49 pm

              And that's households (where homeowners are a member of the household). Only half of individuals own the home they live in, directly or indirectly (same link, p34).

              Additionally, although $value of lending to first home buyers peaked last year at 20%, the proportion of actual borrowers at the time was 12%.

              The longer this situation goes on, the more nailed in the inequity will be.

          • solkta 1.2.2.1.2
            15 February 2021 at 3:04 pm

            "no collapse in average ownership at all"

            Are you serious?

            • Ad 1.2.2.1.2.1
              15 February 2021 at 3:12 pm

              65% is barely moved from the last time they measured.

              • solkta …
                15 February 2021 at 3:53 pm

                You sound like a CC denialist – "oooh look, this part of the graph is flat!"

                A 13% drop in fact.

              • McFlock …
                15 February 2021 at 3:57 pm

                Heck of a change within a generation, though

                • Ad …
                  15 February 2021 at 4:09 pm

                  If by "generation" you mean the peak in the early 1990s, I'd agree.

                  If by "generation" you mean back to the 1960s when everything about New Zealand was supposed to be our egalitarian apogee, no not really it's the same.

                  • solkta …
                    15 February 2021 at 4:31 pm

                    You not only can't read a graph it seems you can't even read:

                    "Homeownership at lowest rate since the 1950s" – the heading of the graph you link to.

                  • McFlock …
                    15 February 2021 at 4:35 pm

                    I thought "generation" generally referred to thirty years or so?

                    But then if 68.9% is "the same" as 64.5%, I suspect we need to find a specific dictionary to agree upon for a common vernacular.

                • Stuart Munro …
                  15 February 2021 at 4:25 pm

                  Yup – the demographics don't lie. Before Rogergnomics the median age at marriage was around 23. After it was 33. Poverty. The social science folk can give the lie to every pretense of good governance.

                  • McFlock …
                    15 February 2021 at 4:41 pm

                    Not everything is primarily caused by rogernomics. Reducing the social expectation for marriage wasn't just economic.

                  • RedLogix …
                    15 February 2021 at 5:05 pm

                    The data here suggests that the more developed a nation is, the faster the rate at which the age of 'first marriage' has been increasing.

                    The best explanation does not appear to be 'poverty'.

                    • Stuart Munro …
                      15 February 2021 at 5:43 pm

                      That would be of course because the data aren't set up to capture it.

                      Measure GDP alone and you could imagine Rogergnomics as something other than a brutal failure. But you would be letting data trickle through your fingers – politically convenient no doubt.

                      The first world nations have been lying to themselves for a good while now – with falling "labour force participation" instead of unemployment and so on. The lies are getting pretty thick. If everything were apples home ownership wouldn't have had to fall, nor would child (the only politically acceptable poverty) be so high.

                      All those suicides blamed on mental health too – same trick the Soviets resorted to. Our governors have no standards at all.

                    • RedLogix …
                      15 February 2021 at 5:51 pm

                      All those different countries – and none of them 'properly' capturing age of first marriage to your satisfaction.

                      Amazing.

                    • Stuart Munro …
                      15 February 2021 at 6:15 pm

                      Hardly – I'm not trying to extend my assertion around the world – it was you that had to reach beyond NZ to grasp at the straw that because other countries experience lesser forms of the same graphic failure, the brutal sham that was Rogergnomics was somehow excusable.

                      We all understand the appeal to the vanity of policy makers of a ‘great leap forward’, and I use Mao’s term deliberately, because Rogergnomics was every bit as hubris-laden, destructive, misguided, and undemocratic.

                    • RedLogix …
                      15 February 2021 at 6:29 pm

                      Typical debating fail – jumping to unjustified conclusions. Nowhere have I attempted to excuse neo-liberalism. Indeed if you'd been paying attention I have explicitly written a post on exactly why I regard it as 'out of bounds'.

                      Liberals when their desire for ‘freedom’ becomes a repudiation of society and manifests as libertarianism and neo-liberal economic theories.

                      So nowhere have I attempted to excuse Rogernomics – that’s a just a figment of your imagination. But to attribute everything bad that ever happened in this country to this singular cause is another kind of fail.

                    • Stuart Munro …
                      15 February 2021 at 7:17 pm

                      The inability to confront and address mistakes is typical of dysfunctional institutions like corporations or corrupted governments.

        • alwyn 1.2.2.2
          15 February 2021 at 4:02 pm

          It isn't the price of the house that is relevant to the person buying it. It is the cost of servicing the mortgage. Here are a few graphs on housing costs. Between 2008 and 2019 the average household income in Auckland went up by about 50%. Thar was from $61.4k to $95.2k. The average weekly payment for people who had a mortgage only went up by about 20%. That was from $384/week to $460/week

          https://figure.nz/chart/0Z1fITz5qe80b2tD-szOL5Pza2PB8N51f

          When you look at the cost of buying a home the most important factor is going to be the mortgage interest rate. First mortgage rates in 2008 were about 8%. They are now, if the ASB quote in front of me is typical 2.29% for a 1 year fixed rate.

          https://teara.govt.nz/files/g-23100-data_0.txt

          https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/mortgage-rates.html

          The second most important factor is going to be the deposit. If house prices go up by 17%, as they typically did last year the deposit will do the same and that is really going to hurt the first home buyer.

          A note. This is not an area on Economics in which I have much knowledge or experience so all the numbers I have reference may be irrelevant. At a first glance though it wouldn't appear that people are much affected by the price rises while interest rates are dropping to the point that in real terms the money is free to borrow.

          • Ad 1.2.2.2.1
            15 February 2021 at 4:10 pm

            The commentary in the Stats NZ work on this supports this cost-of-mortgage issue. But it fails the obvious corollary: as prices go up, so too does the potential equity for deposits from Bank Of Mum And Dad (especially when they downsize, or die).

            • dv 1.2.2.2.1.1
              15 February 2021 at 4:26 pm

              As a sort of comparison.

              Bought house in 1980 with 30% deposit Interest was abt 30% of salary then

              Now a 60% loan would cost about 25% of the same level of salary.

              Having said that the amount of deposit today would be about 300k

          • McFlock 1.2.2.2.2
            15 February 2021 at 4:26 pm

            Even without interest, the average borrowing for a first home loan is almost half a mil.

            That ain't chump change to pay back weekly, by itself.

            People buying their first homes need to be doing damned well.

            Unless you can figure out some way of paying the same price while not borrowing so much, the two figures are pretty good substitutes for each other when it comes to looking at why people can't afford to own their own hovel.

            • alwyn 1.2.2.2.2.1
              15 February 2021 at 4:50 pm

              I am not disputing that it isn't easy. Mind you I can remember when my mortgage rate was 13%. That was back in the 70's and I knew people who were paying more.

              However I had a quick look at payments using the BNZ calculator.

              On an $800k house with a 20% deposit and a 30 year term at 2.29% you pay $1,132,fortnight. On a property at half the price, and half the deposit for the same 30 years loan you would pay exactly the same amount if you were paying 8.5% which would have been quite likely back in 2008. Half the amount borrowed but the same $1,132 at the much higher interest rate.

              On the monthly income for a household at the average number of $$95.2k/year you would be paying 31% of your income on your mortgage.

              • McFlock …
                15 February 2021 at 5:22 pm

                coolcool.

                Where did the first home buyer get the extra $80k for the 20% deposit in 2020? Their income only went up by less than 50%. And their rent payments are through the roof, as well, so their savings might struggle to hit a wage inflation equivalent.

                • alwyn …
                  15 February 2021 at 5:34 pm

                  You did notice I said, in my first comment.

                  "The second most important factor is going to be the deposit. If house prices go up by 17%, as they typically did last year the deposit will do the same and that is really going to hurt the first home buyer."

                  I don't know. I haven't been in the market for a mortgage for 30 years. We did save our deposit for our first house in about 18 months though by living on about half of one of our two incomes. The total furniture we had in a one bedroom flat cost us about $100 dollars. I will admit we had one 10 year old car though. Entertainment was limited to barbecues with friends or going to the beach.

                  • RedLogix …
                    15 February 2021 at 5:41 pm

                    These days families are going to have to start thinking intergenerationally – as the Indians and Chinese are accustomed to doing.

                    • McFlock …
                      15 February 2021 at 5:51 pm

                      Folks know which generation fucked it up.

                    • RedLogix …
                      15 February 2021 at 6:00 pm

                      Well the Chinese especially tend to regard their elders with considerable respect – and not so much of the 'ok boomer'.

                      The point is that if you want to be prosperous it takes more than just a good job – you need to plan ahead and use each generation's capacities and abilities for the benefit of the entire family.

                      And of course rising divorce rates over the period in question also have their impact – nothing destroys family wealth over time quite like it.

                    • McFlock …
                      15 February 2021 at 6:04 pm

                      The point is that if you want to be prosperous it takes more than just a good job – you need to plan ahead and use each generation's capacities and abilities for the benefit of the entire family.

                      Only in a society with entrenched inequity and social mobility that does not reflect individual merit.

                    • RedLogix …
                      15 February 2021 at 6:12 pm

                      It's not a binary choice. Yes merit and mobility are valued highly in the West – but a well ordered and stable family over multiple generations will always have an advantage.

                    • McFlock …
                      15 February 2021 at 7:03 pm

                      Not in a meritocracy.

                    • RedLogix …
                      15 February 2021 at 7:16 pm

                      Why not? And how would you prevent family success from benefiting the whole family? Are parents to be prohibited from helping their children if they can?

                      Insisting on nothing but a pure meritocracy seems an absolutist view to me.

                    • McFlock …
                      15 February 2021 at 7:29 pm

                      In a meritocracy, it doesn't matter if parents help their kids or not. That's the point.

                      But my objection to the current situation isn't that NZ isn't a perfect meritocracy. My objection is that we're becoming less of a meritocracy. You can cloak it in "respect for elders" and "family stability" all you want, it's the simple greed of a previous generation turning into a dynastic problem.

                      I've said it before and I'll say it again: his solutions to the problems he described were bunk, but Marx was a spot-on critic of capitalism and feudalism. They're just two sides of the same coin. The Duke's ancestor hit peasants over the head with clubs, the magnate's ancestor paid other people to hit workers over the head with clubs.

                    • RedLogix …
                      15 February 2021 at 7:40 pm

                      In a meritocracy, it doesn't matter if parents help their kids or not.

                      Tell that to the Chinese or Indians busy building lots of intergenerational wealth in this country – property, businesses, you name it.

                      The simple reality is that a stable family is one of the best predictors of good social outcomes across the board.

                    • McFlock …
                      15 February 2021 at 7:48 pm

                      Correction: the one of the biggest predictors of future wealth is parental wealth, and it's getting worse.

                      BTW, not sure where you're getting your data on household wealth by ethnicity?

                  • McFlock …
                    15 February 2021 at 5:59 pm

                    So today to save a $160k deposit in 18 months from one income, that would be an income of $100k a year.

                    Basically, the govt needs to either build shitloads of affordable homes or build shitloads of state houses and have say a HNZ 5% stock turnover for modernisation in addition to a general increase in stock levels, sold through a rent to own equity deal.

                    Because this is a formalisation of an intergenerational class system. Not the one we've been ignoring and pretending doesn't exist, an actual regression back towards feudalism. Not all the way back, but a definite step back.

                    • alwyn …
                      15 February 2021 at 7:28 pm

                      "So today to save a $160k deposit in 18 months from one income".

                      A minor correction but it wasn't one income. It was one and a half incomes. We lived on one quarter of our after tax income and saved the rest.

                      That was quite common at the time. We were, like all our friends, trying very hard to get to own our own home. We were also willing to live a great deal further out from the CDB than many people seem to be willing to do today and lots of people did not have a car.

                      I found it quite hilarious a couple of years ago to read about a 30 something woman who was complaining that she couldn't afford a first house. Her idea of a first house was 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms in Roseneath, Mt Vic or Mt Cook. There was no way she was going out to the distant suburb of Hataitai. If you aren't a Wellingtonian look it up. It would be comparable to refusing to live way out in the wilds of Epsom I suppose.

                    • McFlock …
                      15 February 2021 at 7:41 pm

                      So to do it today, that's still two people in the same household earning well above the median income.

                      You forgot to bring up coffee and avocado smash.

    • Nic the NZer 1.3
      15 February 2021 at 7:05 pm

      This article is in some ways quite good on looking separately at both sides of the housing market. Though I didn't really like Eastons alternative of demand backed by offshore financing, as this doesn't either fit the facts.

      First the banking system doesn't lend out existing deposits but instead creates additional deposits when extending loans. Second the fact that a trade deficit was occuring simultaneously to an expansion in borrowing will mean an expansion in overseas ownership domestically, but a lot of the overseas trades are not in $NZ so in what sense is that supporting lending into a housing market almost exclusively trading in $NZ. This explanation is equally likely to misslead as the explanation it replaces.

      • Pat 1.3.1
        15 February 2021 at 8:16 pm

        The bank may create credit but they are still required to hold reserves and the size of those reserves determines how much credit they can create…..and a glut of international liquidity looking for a safe home and return knows which side their bread is buttered on.

        • Nic the NZer 1.3.1.1
          16 February 2021 at 9:46 am

          Your talking about 'capital' not reserves there (especially in the context of overseas funding), and capital is still not a constraint on lending. It might place limits on the interest rates accessible in some cases.

          But the simpler explanation is just that a lot of those recent house sellers at the time also took overseas trips.

          • Pat 1.3.1.1.1
            16 February 2021 at 10:00 am

            Wrong …the amount of credit a bank can create is directly linked to their reserves and that capital can (and does) come from offshore…the interest rates are a consequence of the ability to service the level of debt (credit).

            • Nic the NZer 1.3.1.1.1.1
              16 February 2021 at 10:27 am

              Still its, not a constraint on lending.

              • Pat …
                16 February 2021 at 10:55 am

                Of course it is…unless the bank wishes to breach its conditions of licence

                • Nic the NZer …
                  16 February 2021 at 11:57 am

                  The country didn't instigate a housing bubble based on money it borrowed overseas. That would be a very missleading claim, and I expect you would not claim it happened either. Yes, the implication is that the country can manufacture as much capital as it needs to facilitate lending for itself.

                  • Pat …
                    16 February 2021 at 1:48 pm

                    the glut of money sloshing around the world looks for a home and preferably a safe one with good access…..where better than backing the banks of open economies, ones with a political class wedded to the idea of free capital flows. The Banks use that increased reserve capacity to grow their loan books and thereby increase their profits, everybody wins,,,except for the poor mugs being milked for every available penny when they try and enter the housing market,

                    And the Gov is trapped because if they seriously try to do anything about housing affordability that capital in the banks reserves will find a new home …and probably not in NZ.

                    Capital outflow equals negative growth not to mention all the associated problems

  2. Ad 2
    15 February 2021 at 2:08 pm

    I have no idea what this is going to achieve, but it's hard to fault the ambition. Pope Francis has just

    https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-council-for-inclusive-capitalism-with-the-vatican-a-new-alliance-of-global-business-leaders-launches-today-301187931.html

    launched a partnership between the Vatican and some of the world’s largest companies, nonprofits and government agencies to reform capitalism.

    The Council for Inclusive Capitalism with the Vatican is led by Guardians for Inclusive Capitalism, a group of officials representing such entities as the Bank of America, BP, Dupont, the Ford Foundation, Mastercard, Merck, the Rockefeller Foundation, Salesforce, Visa and the State of California.

    Under the Pope’s guidance, these “guardians” aim to “reform capitalism into a powerful force for the good of humanity” and create a “more inclusive, sustainable and trusted form of capitalism.”

    https://www.inclusivecapitalism.com/

    Their mission is "to harness the private sector to create a more inclusive, sustainable and trusted economic system."

    Just occasionally I wish Bruce Jesson and Christopher Hitchings were still alive to comment.

    It's too weird for me to even try to comment yet.

    • McFlock 2.1
      15 February 2021 at 2:14 pm

      Should have just called it FaustianPact.com

    • RedLogix 2.2
      15 February 2021 at 2:15 pm

      That's quite remarkable. From your second link:

      Capitalism has lifted billions of people out of poverty, but many in society have been left behind and the planet has paid a price. There is a moral imperative to address this challenge, and we are taking action.

      What a lot of people here have missed is that many boardrooms across the US and EU have been quietly working toward all kinds of social and economic reforms. But because it's 'fucking capitalists' it never gets onto our radar.

      It's a theme I'd have picked up on more – but every time I type the word 'capitalist' a kind of red mist descends. eg McF predictably above.

      • Ad 2.2.1
        15 February 2021 at 2:19 pm

        It's also not unreasonable to look at the Catholic Church's own historical approach to wealth management and go what the actual fuck.

        • RedLogix 2.2.1.1
          15 February 2021 at 2:42 pm

          Well history is tilting in ways never encountered before.

          Basically we've tried three major economic variants – capitalism, communism and fascism – and of the three only the first has shown the necessary evolutionary capacity to adapt to the new world we're heading into.

          It's all about the demographics. Young adults are consumers of goods and services, mid-aged adults are investors in capital and services, and retired adults are consumers of capital. At least in very broad terms.

          For the first time in all of our history our populations are now quite rapidly becoming dominated by late adult to retired aged populations. Fully half of all Boomers will retire in 2022. Suddenly growth is no longer possible or even desirable. And none of the economic systems we've ever attempted have ever been exposed to this scenario – but I'd put my bet on capitalism being the one most likely to evolve to meet the challenge.

  3. RedBaronCV 3
    15 February 2021 at 2:52 pm

    I see China are trying to join the TPP as is the UK. Does this mean that a large state actor like China or the UK could sue our government if we don't toe their line with regard to commercial companies. Given that a lot of chinese commercial investment seems to have some sort of state back up how exposed does this leave us?

    I'm pretty confused but is it time that the existing TPP members rolled back a lot of the not actual trading and tariffs parts of the agreement so that the grouping is less attractive to major players. It all seems to reduce our ability both domestically and internationally? Should a trade agreement affect domestic politics that much?

    https://www.interest.co.nz/news/109042/big-japanese-quake-china-targets-nz-over-tpp-application-us-sentiment-waivers-canada

    https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/China-up-close/Analysis-A-new-Anglo-Japanese-alliance-threatens-China-s-TPP-plans

  4. Johnr 4
    15 February 2021 at 5:15 pm

    Dorklander here. Oh the evils of a lockdown. No warning and the bottle store closes. Have to sundown on a 15 year Chivas Regal rather than my ho hum teachers

  5. Sabine 5
    15 February 2021 at 6:52 pm

    For the radio listeners among us.

    This link is a big bad rabbit hole to follow, so don't say you weren't warned.

    Essentially every little green dot is a radio station. Have fun.

    http://radio.garden/

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

Older posts

  • The Duke of Edinburgh
    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern today expressed New Zealand’s sorrow at the death of His Royal Highness The Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh. “Our thoughts are with Her Majesty The Queen at this profoundly sad time.  On behalf of the New Zealand people and the Government, I would like to express ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • Five Country Ministerial Communiqué
    We, the Home Affairs, Interior, Security and Immigration Ministers of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States of America (the ‘Five Countries’) met via video conference on 7/8 April 2021, just over a year after the outbreak of the COVID-19 global pandemic. Guided by our shared ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • Inspiring creativity through cultural installations and events
    Arts, Culture and Heritage Minister Carmel Sepuloni has today announced the opening of the first round of Ngā Puninga Toi ā-Ahurea me ngā Kaupapa Cultural Installations and Events. “Creating jobs and helping the arts sector rebuild and recover continues to be a key part of the Government’s COVID-19 response,” Carmel ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • Drug-testing law to be made permanent
    Interim legislation that is already proving to keep people safer from drugs will be made permanent, Health Minister Andrew Little says. Research by Victoria University, on behalf of the Ministry of Health, shows that the Government’s decision in December to make it legal for drug-checking services to operate at festivals ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • Better rules proposed for freedom camping
    Public consultation launched on ways to improve behaviour and reduce damage Tighter rules proposed for either camping vehicles or camping locations Increased penalties proposed, such as $1,000 fines or vehicle confiscation Rental companies may be required to collect fines from campers who hire vehicles Public feedback is sought on proposals ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • Government backs Air New Zealand as Trans-Tasman bubble opens
    The Government is continuing to support Air New Zealand while aviation markets stabilise and the world moves towards more normal border operations. The Crown loan facility made available to Air New Zealand in March 2020 has been extended to a debt facility of up to $1.5 billion (an additional $600 ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • Building gifted for new community hub in Richmond red zone
    Christchurch’s Richmond suburb will soon have a new community hub, following the gifting of a red-zoned property by Land Information New Zealand (LINZ) to the Richmond Community Gardens Trust. The Minister for Land Information, Damien O’Connor said that LINZ, on behalf of the Crown, will gift a Vogel Street house ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • Pacific languages funding reopens
      Minister for Pacific Peoples Aupito William Sio says the reopening of the Ministry for Pacific Peoples’ (MPP) Languages Funding in 2021 will make sure there is a future for Pacific languages. “Language is the key to the wellbeing for Pacific people. It affirms our identity as Pasifika and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • ERANZ speech April 2021
    It is a pleasure to be here tonight.  Thank you Cameron for the introduction and thank you for ERANZ for also hosting this event. Last week in fact, we had one of the largest gatherings in our sector, Downstream 2021. I have heard from my officials that the discussion on ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • Strengthening Māori knowledge in science and innovation
    Research, Science and Innovation Minister Megan Woods has today announced the 16 projects that will together get $3.9 million through the 2021 round of Te Pūnaha Hihiko: Vision Mātauranga Capability Fund, further strengthening the Government’s commitment to Māori knowledge in science and innovation.  “We received 78 proposals - the highest ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • Government delivers next phase of climate action
    The Government is delivering on a key election commitment to tackle climate change, by banning new low and medium temperature coal-fired boilers and partnering with the private sector to help it transition away from fossil fuels. This is the first major announcement to follow the release of the Climate Commission’s ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • Continued investment in Central Otago schools supports roll growth
    Six projects, collectively valued at over $70 million are delivering new schools, classrooms and refurbished buildings across Central Otago and are helping to ease the pressure of growing rolls in the area, says Education Minister Chris Hipkins. The National Education Growth Plan is making sure that sufficient capacity in the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • Two more Christchurch schools complete
    Two more schools are now complete as part of the Christchurch Schools Rebuild Programme, with work about to get under way on another, says Education Minister Chris Hipkins. Te Ara Koropiko – West Spreydon School will welcome students to their new buildings for the start of Term 2. The newly ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • Independent experts to advise Government on post-vaccination future
    The Government is acting to ensure decisions on responding to the next phase of the COVID-19 pandemic are informed by the best available scientific evidence and strategic public health advice. “New Zealand has worked towards an elimination strategy which has been successful in keeping our people safe and our economy ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • Supporting Māori success with Ngārimu Awards
    Six Māori scholars have been awarded Ngārimu VC and the 28th (Māori) Battalion Memorial scholarships for 2021, Associate Education Minister and Ngārimu Board Chair, Kelvin Davis announced today. The prestigious Manakura Award was also presented for the first time since 2018. “These awards are a tribute to the heroes of the 28th ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • Global partnerships propel space tech research
    New Zealand’s aerospace industry is getting a boost through the German Aerospace Centre (DLR), to grow the capability of the sector and potentially lead to joint space missions, Research, Science and Innovation Minister Megan Woods has announced. 12 New Zealand organisations have been chosen to work with world-leading experts at ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • Government backs more initiatives to boost food and fibre workforce
    The Government is backing more initiatives to boost New Zealand’s food and fibre sector workforce, Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor announced today. “The Government and the food and fibres sector have been working hard to fill critical workforce needs.  We've committed to getting 10,000 more Kiwis into the sector over the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago

  • Minister welcomes Bill to remove Subsequent Child Policy
    Minister for Social Development and Employment Carmel Sepuloni has welcomed the first reading of the Social Security (Subsequent Child Policy Removal) Amendment Bill in the House this evening. “Tonight’s first reading is another step on the way to removing excessive sanctions and obligations for people receiving a Main Benefit,” says ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago

  • Mental Health Amendment Bill passes first reading
    The Government has taken a significant step towards delivering on its commitment to improve the legislation around mental health as recommended by He Ara Oranga – the report of the Government Inquiry into Mental Health and Addiction, Health Minister Andrew Little says. The Mental Health (Compulsory Assessment and Treatment) Amendment ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago

  • Whenua Māori Rating Amendment Bill passes third reading
    Local Government Minister Nanaia Mahuta has welcomed the Local Government (Rating of Whenua Māori) Amendment Bill passing its third reading today. “After nearly 100 years of a system that was not fit for Māori and did not reflect the partnership we have come to expect between Māori and the Crown, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago

  • Trans-Tasman bubble to start 19 April
    New Zealand’s successful management of COVID means quarantine-free travel between New Zealand and Australia will start on Monday 19 April, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced today. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins confirmed the conditions for starting to open up quarantine free travel with Australia have ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago

  • Ngāti Hinerangi Claims Settlement Bill passes Third Reading
    Minister for Treaty of Waitangi Negotiations Andrew Little welcomed ngā uri o Ngāti Hinerangi to Parliament today to witness the third reading of their Treaty settlement legislation, the Ngāti Hinerangi Claims Settlement Bill. “I want to acknowledge ngā uri o Ngāti Hinerangi and the Crown negotiations teams for working tirelessly ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago

  • Independent group announced to advise on firearms matters
    Minister of Police Poto Williams has announced the members of the Ministers Arms Advisory Group, established to ensure balanced advice to Government on firearms that is independent of Police. “The Ministers Arms Advisory Group is an important part of delivering on the Government’s commitment to ensure we maintain the balance ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago

  • Kiri Allan to take leave of absence
    Kiri Allan, Minister of Conservation and Emergency Management will undertake a leave of absence while she undergoes medical treatment for cervical cancer, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced today. “I consider Kiri not just a colleague, but a friend. This news has been devastating. But I also know that Kiri is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago

  • Excellent progress at new Waikeria prison build
    Excellent progress has been made at the new prison development at Waikeria, which will boost mental health services and improve rehabilitation opportunities for people in prison, Corrections Minister Kelvin Davis says. Kelvin Davis was onsite at the new build to meet with staff and see the construction first-hand, following a ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Expert panel proposes criminal limits for drug driving
    To reduce the trauma of road crashes caused by drug impaired drivers, an Independent Expert Panel on Drug Driving has proposed criminal limits and blood infringement thresholds for 25 impairing drugs, Minister of Police Poto Williams and Transport Minister Michael Wood announced today. The Land Transport (Drug Driving) Amendment Bill ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Covid-19 imgration powers to be extended
    Temporary COVID-19 immigration powers will be extended to May 2023, providing continued flexibility to support migrants, manage the border, and help industries facing labour shortages, Immigration Minister Kris Faafoi announced today. “Over the past year, we have had to make rapid decisions to vary visa conditions, extend expiry dates, and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago

  • Covid-19 immigration powers to be extended
    Temporary COVID-19 immigration powers will be extended to May 2023, providing continued flexibility to support migrants, manage the border, and help industries facing labour shortages, Immigration Minister Kris Faafoi announced today. “Over the past year, we have had to make rapid decisions to vary visa conditions, extend expiry dates, and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago

  • More support for mums and whānau struggling with alcohol and other drugs
    The Government is expanding its Pregnancy and Parenting Programme so more women and whānau can access specialist support to minimise harm from alcohol and other drugs, Health Minister Andrew Little says. “We know these supports help improve wellbeing and have helped to reduce addiction, reduced risk for children, and helped ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago

  • Ahuwhenua Trophy Competition Field Day – Tātaiwhetū Trust at Tauarau Marae, Rūātoki
    *** Please check against delivery *** It’s an honour to be here in Rūātoki today, a rohe with such a proud and dynamic history of resilience, excellence and mana. Tūhoe moumou kai, moumou taonga, moumou tangata ki te pō. The Ahuwhenua Trophy competition is the legacy of a seed planted ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago

  • Crown accounts again better than forecast
    The economic recovery from COVID-19 continues to be reflected in the Government’s books, which are again better than expected. The Crown accounts for the eight months to the end of February 2021 showed both OBEGAL and the operating balance remain better than forecast in the Half Year Economic and Fiscal ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago

  • FIFA Women’s World Cup to open in New Zealand
    Sport and Recreation Minister Grant Robertson and Economic Development Minister Stuart Nash have welcomed confirmation New Zealand will host the opening ceremony and match, and one of the semi-finals, of the FIFA Women’s World Cup in 2023. Grant Robertson says matches will be held in Auckland, Hamilton, Wellington and Dunedin, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago

  • 1 April changes raise incomes for 1.4 million New Zealanders
    Changes to the minimum wage, main benefit levels and superannuation rates that come into force today will raise the incomes for around 1.4 million New Zealanders. “This Government is committed to raising the incomes for all New Zealanders as part of laying the foundations for a better future,” Minister for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago

  • New Dunedin Hospital – Whakatuputupu approved for fast track consenting process
    The New Dunedin Hospital – Whakatuputupu has been approved for consideration under the fast track consenting legislation.  The decision by Environment Minister David Parker signifies the importance of the project to the health of the people of Otago-Southland and to the economy of the region.  “This project ticks all the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago

  • Next steps for Auckland light rail
    Transport Minister Michael Wood is getting Auckland light rail back on track with the announcement of an establishment unit to progress this important city-shaping project and engage with Aucklanders. Michael Wood said the previous process didn’t involve Aucklanders enough.                       ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago

  • Tourism fund to prioritise hard-hit regions
    The Minister of Tourism is to re-open a government fund that supports councils to build infrastructure for visitors, with a specific focus on regions hardest hit by the loss of overseas tourists. “Round Five of the Tourism Infrastructure Fund will open for applications next month,” said Stuart Nash. It ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago

  • Governance Group to lead next phase of work on a potential new public media entity
    A Governance Group of eight experts has been appointed to lead the next phase of work on a potential new public media entity, Minister for Broadcasting and Media Kris Faafoi announced today.  “The Governance Group will oversee the development of a business case to consider the viability of a new ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago

  • New funding to keep tamariki and rangatahi Māori active
    Minister for Māori Development Willie Jackson today helped launch a new fund to provide direct financial support for tamariki and rangatahi Māori throughout the South Island who is experiencing financial hardship and missing out on physical activity opportunities. “Through Te Kīwai Fund, we can offer more opportunities for Māori to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago

  • Single tāne, sole parent dads supported into papakāinga housing
    Six whānau in Pāpāmoa receive the keys to their brand-new rental homes today, in stage four of a papakāinga project providing safe and affordable housing in the regions. Minister for Māori Development, Willie Jackson congratulates Mangatawa Pāpāmoa Blocks Incorporated on the opening of three affordable rentals and three social housing ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago

  • Speech to Disarmament and Security Centre
    Kia ora tatou. It’s great to be here today and to get a conversation going on the disarmament issues of greatest interest to you, and to the Government. I’m thrilled to be standing here as a dedicated Minister for Disarmament and Arms Control, which I hope reinforces for you all ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago

Older posts

Older posts