I'm inclined to agree. Shortages are simply an intractable backdrop against which interest, and monetary policy generally, serve to exacerbate the problems that shortages cause.
owning and renting are two different things. And renting to use for a while should never cost more then owning does, and currently renters pay the mortgage, the interest, and what ever else the owner wants out of the property.
btw, my mortgage that i pay currently is 200$ per week.
you can't even rent a dog kennel for that amount anywhere in NZ.
I reckon, my mortgage is $210 a week, if I rented the same house it would be double, and with no return. Free insulation, cheap rates, I could also halve that if I got a flatmate (which I may do once my kids leave). I don't take this for granted, I realise I'm one of the lucky few.
Have to strongly disagree with you there RL, we are in our first own house (nearly freehold) after renting for 30+years the last 15 of those with three children, owning your own home has for us probably been pretty similar, maybe a bit more expensive but not a lot, and especially when you take into account all the benefits…the main one is not having to deal with Ma&Pa landlords they are generally like spawns from hell, they have made renting a fucking nightmare, it is awful, and no country that has the resources NZ has should let it’s citizens endure that type of life…welcome to free market liberalism I guess, markets operating just as they should…Thanks David Lange.
Gone are the old days when you would rent a house and live in it for years and hardly be bothered as long as you paid your rent and maintained the property…our last ten years of renting were a disaster (with one exception) as far as landlords went…even if owning a home was/is more expensive, how can you put a price on the endless stress and worry and more importantly the hundred of subtle ways it damages and undermines children having little to no long term home security.
Owning a home provides security that no amount of rental law cannot.
The trouble is that house prices do not reflect the cost of owning a home. They reflect the cost of the expected medium-term capital gains (post bright-line). It wasn't a problem when they reflected the expected gains upon retirement and downsizing, but now who honestly expects to be in that house for thirty years? Or do they expect to flip it in ten years or so?
Agree with the security bit. I've seen the pro's and cons of home ownership debated at length in New Zealand literature. They're pretty even.
I'd like to see some proper policy work done on the effects of Andrew Little's current extension of the Bright Line test, and the likeley extension to 10 coming up. Doesn't seem to have made much difference to house prices at all – so if it's not working as intended it should be removed.
Perhaps that is a point of the Easton paper – no one issue will solve the housing crisis. After all the current presumption of intent is flawed, but reversing it would mean that gains up to the time legislation takes effect are likely to remain tax free, so most people would not pay much tax for many years; but owners of rental properties may hold for longer to defer the payment. Requiring a bigger amount of real (not borrowed) equity may be possible , but that would be easier if we increased wages so that the government does not need social welfare or Working for Families to enable new home buyers to afford to live with a family.
I have a good landlord. Doesn't put the rent up every week etc. . But a batten holder wore out 8 months ago – and it only got fixed last month – no bedroom light all winter. Rentiers are oppressors, even the the good ones.
And of course the inability of contemporary NZers to afford their own homes is the final disproof of neoliberalism. It was supposed to make us more prosperous if you remember – on the contrary, it has impoverished us. Voters, looking at neoliberals think: "Were you really that stupid that you swallowed the hype in spite of our warnings? Or were you just corrupt?"
Because their speculative growth is entrenching even more deeply NZ's trans-generational class system.
Even if a full-time worker can rustle up a 10-20% deposit, I strongly suspect most NZers probably wouldn't earn enough to service the mortgage on a median-priced house.
For me, it was break-even with no margin for error five years ago. Now? It's a joke. And I have a good job, no dependants, and a retirement fund, but houses are more than twice the price. Almost literally – I looked up that house recently. It's gone from $230k to $450k. Has any actual worker's salary doubled in five years?
I'm kinda waiting for evidence of the K-shaped economy to hit.
And it's indisputable that salaries haven't kept up with house prices.
But if Easton had tracked house prices, salaries, and national home ownership, he would have seen no collapse in average ownership at all. Even as prices skyrocketed.
In fact we're still better than nearly all other developed countries for home ownership.
Easton calls it speculation. 65% of us call it risk management.
Easton’s analysis is sound and he is not alone with the conclusions….it has been well canvassed and the only major dispute is around to what degree other factors impact.
stating 65% mean sweet FA unless you also state from where it came and what the trend is…as you well know.
and I too have checked…"and falling"
"Home Ownership Rate in New Zealand is expected to reach 64.29 percent by the end of 2020, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations."
And as outlined below there is more to it than just economics – it's the relentlessly increasing age of first marriage that also means that 20-29 age group just aren't interested in buying homes.
Another factor is the rise in divorce rates – usually one partner will finish up renting for a period afterward.
This doesn't discount the obvious affordability issue in play – but it does suggest there are often more factors involved than the headlines make out.
Of course, unmarried people dont buy houses….how could i miss that.
And the 20 -29 year olds arnt interested in buying homes….because they increasingly cant afford them….the same applies to those in their 30s…and the ones that eventually can take considerably longer to raise the increasing deposits.
Those decreased ownership rates in the cohorts coming through are going to have a major impact on the total ownership rates as the proportionately higher ownership rate cohort approaching 70 move into care/die
30 per cent of homes are owned by people who only own one home.
Another 13 per cent is owned by people who have two homes. Six per cent is owned by people who have three homes. Ten per cent is owned by people who have between four and six homes.
And another 10 per cent is owned by those who have between seven and 20 homes.
I would argue one can own multiple houses but only one is ever your home but that's an aside.
To do a real comparison a similar breakdown as above is needed for the historical data.
And that's households (where homeowners are a member of the household). Only half of individuals own the home they live in, directly or indirectly (same link, p34).
Additionally, although $value of lending to first home buyers peaked last year at 20%, the proportion of actual borrowers at the time was 12%.
The longer this situation goes on, the more nailed in the inequity will be.
If by "generation" you mean the peak in the early 1990s, I'd agree.
If by "generation" you mean back to the 1960s when everything about New Zealand was supposed to be our egalitarian apogee, no not really it's the same.
Yup – the demographics don't lie. Before Rogergnomics the median age at marriage was around 23. After it was 33. Poverty. The social science folk can give the lie to every pretense of good governance.
That would be of course because the data aren't set up to capture it.
Measure GDP alone and you could imagine Rogergnomics as something other than a brutal failure. But you would be letting data trickle through your fingers – politically convenient no doubt.
The first world nations have been lying to themselves for a good while now – with falling "labour force participation" instead of unemployment and so on. The lies are getting pretty thick. If everything were apples home ownership wouldn't have had to fall, nor would child (the only politically acceptable poverty) be so high.
All those suicides blamed on mental health too – same trick the Soviets resorted to. Our governors have no standards at all.
Hardly – I'm not trying to extend my assertion around the world – it was you that had to reach beyond NZ to grasp at the straw that because other countries experience lesser forms of the same graphic failure, the brutal sham that was Rogergnomics was somehow excusable.
We all understand the appeal to the vanity of policy makers of a ‘great leap forward’, and I use Mao’s term deliberately, because Rogergnomics was every bit as hubris-laden, destructive, misguided, and undemocratic.
Liberals when their desire for ‘freedom’ becomes a repudiation of society and manifests as libertarianism and neo-liberal economic theories.
So nowhere have I attempted to excuse Rogernomics – that’s a just a figment of your imagination. But to attribute everything bad that ever happened in this country to this singular cause is another kind of fail.
It isn't the price of the house that is relevant to the person buying it. It is the cost of servicing the mortgage. Here are a few graphs on housing costs. Between 2008 and 2019 the average household income in Auckland went up by about 50%. Thar was from $61.4k to $95.2k. The average weekly payment for people who had a mortgage only went up by about 20%. That was from $384/week to $460/week
When you look at the cost of buying a home the most important factor is going to be the mortgage interest rate. First mortgage rates in 2008 were about 8%. They are now, if the ASB quote in front of me is typical 2.29% for a 1 year fixed rate.
The second most important factor is going to be the deposit. If house prices go up by 17%, as they typically did last year the deposit will do the same and that is really going to hurt the first home buyer.
A note. This is not an area on Economics in which I have much knowledge or experience so all the numbers I have reference may be irrelevant. At a first glance though it wouldn't appear that people are much affected by the price rises while interest rates are dropping to the point that in real terms the money is free to borrow.
The commentary in the Stats NZ work on this supports this cost-of-mortgage issue. But it fails the obvious corollary: as prices go up, so too does the potential equity for deposits from Bank Of Mum And Dad (especially when they downsize, or die).
Even without interest, the average borrowing for a first home loan is almost half a mil.
That ain't chump change to pay back weekly, by itself.
People buying their first homes need to be doing damned well.
Unless you can figure out some way of paying the same price while not borrowing so much, the two figures are pretty good substitutes for each other when it comes to looking at why people can't afford to own their own hovel.
I am not disputing that it isn't easy. Mind you I can remember when my mortgage rate was 13%. That was back in the 70's and I knew people who were paying more.
However I had a quick look at payments using the BNZ calculator.
On an $800k house with a 20% deposit and a 30 year term at 2.29% you pay $1,132,fortnight. On a property at half the price, and half the deposit for the same 30 years loan you would pay exactly the same amount if you were paying 8.5% which would have been quite likely back in 2008. Half the amount borrowed but the same $1,132 at the much higher interest rate.
On the monthly income for a household at the average number of $$95.2k/year you would be paying 31% of your income on your mortgage.
Where did the first home buyer get the extra $80k for the 20% deposit in 2020? Their income only went up by less than 50%. And their rent payments are through the roof, as well, so their savings might struggle to hit a wage inflation equivalent.
"The second most important factor is going to be the deposit. If house prices go up by 17%, as they typically did last year the deposit will do the same and that is really going to hurt the first home buyer."
I don't know. I haven't been in the market for a mortgage for 30 years. We did save our deposit for our first house in about 18 months though by living on about half of one of our two incomes. The total furniture we had in a one bedroom flat cost us about $100 dollars. I will admit we had one 10 year old car though. Entertainment was limited to barbecues with friends or going to the beach.
Well the Chinese especially tend to regard their elders with considerable respect – and not so much of the 'ok boomer'.
The point is that if you want to be prosperous it takes more than just a good job – you need to plan ahead and use each generation's capacities and abilities for the benefit of the entire family.
And of course rising divorce rates over the period in question also have their impact – nothing destroys family wealth over time quite like it.
The point is that if you want to be prosperous it takes more than just a good job – you need to plan ahead and use each generation's capacities and abilities for the benefit of the entire family.
Only in a society with entrenched inequity and social mobility that does not reflect individual merit.
It's not a binary choice. Yes merit and mobility are valued highly in the West – but a well ordered and stable family over multiple generations will always have an advantage.
Why not? And how would you prevent family success from benefiting the whole family? Are parents to be prohibited from helping their children if they can?
Insisting on nothing but a pure meritocracy seems an absolutist view to me.
In a meritocracy, it doesn't matter if parents help their kids or not. That's the point.
But my objection to the current situation isn't that NZ isn't a perfect meritocracy. My objection is that we're becoming less of a meritocracy. You can cloak it in "respect for elders" and "family stability" all you want, it's the simple greed of a previous generation turning into a dynastic problem.
I've said it before and I'll say it again: his solutions to the problems he described were bunk, but Marx was a spot-on critic of capitalism and feudalism. They're just two sides of the same coin. The Duke's ancestor hit peasants over the head with clubs, the magnate's ancestor paid other people to hit workers over the head with clubs.
So today to save a $160k deposit in 18 months from one income, that would be an income of $100k a year.
Basically, the govt needs to either build shitloads of affordable homes or build shitloads of state houses and have say a HNZ 5% stock turnover for modernisation in addition to a general increase in stock levels, sold through a rent to own equity deal.
Because this is a formalisation of an intergenerational class system. Not the one we've been ignoring and pretending doesn't exist, an actual regression back towards feudalism. Not all the way back, but a definite step back.
"So today to save a $160k deposit in 18 months from one income".
A minor correction but it wasn't one income. It was one and a half incomes. We lived on one quarter of our after tax income and saved the rest.
That was quite common at the time. We were, like all our friends, trying very hard to get to own our own home. We were also willing to live a great deal further out from the CDB than many people seem to be willing to do today and lots of people did not have a car.
I found it quite hilarious a couple of years ago to read about a 30 something woman who was complaining that she couldn't afford a first house. Her idea of a first house was 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms in Roseneath, Mt Vic or Mt Cook. There was no way she was going out to the distant suburb of Hataitai. If you aren't a Wellingtonian look it up. It would be comparable to refusing to live way out in the wilds of Epsom I suppose.
This article is in some ways quite good on looking separately at both sides of the housing market. Though I didn't really like Eastons alternative of demand backed by offshore financing, as this doesn't either fit the facts.
First the banking system doesn't lend out existing deposits but instead creates additional deposits when extending loans. Second the fact that a trade deficit was occuring simultaneously to an expansion in borrowing will mean an expansion in overseas ownership domestically, but a lot of the overseas trades are not in $NZ so in what sense is that supporting lending into a housing market almost exclusively trading in $NZ. This explanation is equally likely to misslead as the explanation it replaces.
The bank may create credit but they are still required to hold reserves and the size of those reserves determines how much credit they can create…..and a glut of international liquidity looking for a safe home and return knows which side their bread is buttered on.
Your talking about 'capital' not reserves there (especially in the context of overseas funding), and capital is still not a constraint on lending. It might place limits on the interest rates accessible in some cases.
But the simpler explanation is just that a lot of those recent house sellers at the time also took overseas trips.
Wrong …the amount of credit a bank can create is directly linked to their reserves and that capital can (and does) come from offshore…the interest rates are a consequence of the ability to service the level of debt (credit).
The country didn't instigate a housing bubble based on money it borrowed overseas. That would be a very missleading claim, and I expect you would not claim it happened either. Yes, the implication is that the country can manufacture as much capital as it needs to facilitate lending for itself.
the glut of money sloshing around the world looks for a home and preferably a safe one with good access…..where better than backing the banks of open economies, ones with a political class wedded to the idea of free capital flows. The Banks use that increased reserve capacity to grow their loan books and thereby increase their profits, everybody wins,,,except for the poor mugs being milked for every available penny when they try and enter the housing market,
And the Gov is trapped because if they seriously try to do anything about housing affordability that capital in the banks reserves will find a new home …and probably not in NZ.
Capital outflow equals negative growth not to mention all the associated problems
Under the Pope’s guidance, these “guardians” aim to “reform capitalism into a powerful force for the good of humanity” and create a “more inclusive, sustainable and trusted form of capitalism.”
Capitalism has lifted billions of people out of poverty, but many in society have been left behind and the planet has paid a price. There is a moral imperative to address this challenge, and we are taking action.
What a lot of people here have missed is that many boardrooms across the US and EU have been quietly working toward all kinds of social and economic reforms. But because it's 'fucking capitalists' it never gets onto our radar.
It's a theme I'd have picked up on more – but every time I type the word 'capitalist' a kind of red mist descends. eg McF predictably above.
Well history is tilting in ways never encountered before.
Basically we've tried three major economic variants – capitalism, communism and fascism – and of the three only the first has shown the necessary evolutionary capacity to adapt to the new world we're heading into.
It's all about the demographics. Young adults are consumers of goods and services, mid-aged adults are investors in capital and services, and retired adults are consumers of capital. At least in very broad terms.
For the first time in all of our history our populations are now quite rapidly becoming dominated by late adult to retired aged populations. Fully half of all Boomers will retire in 2022. Suddenly growth is no longer possible or even desirable. And none of the economic systems we've ever attempted have ever been exposed to this scenario – but I'd put my bet on capitalism being the one most likely to evolve to meet the challenge.
major economic variants – capitalism, communism and fascism
Could you perhaps explain the differences between these 'economic variants'? Particularly the economic differences between capitalism and fascism.
Thanks in advance.
I see China are trying to join the TPP as is the UK. Does this mean that a large state actor like China or the UK could sue our government if we don't toe their line with regard to commercial companies. Given that a lot of chinese commercial investment seems to have some sort of state back up how exposed does this leave us?
I'm pretty confused but is it time that the existing TPP members rolled back a lot of the not actual trading and tariffs parts of the agreement so that the grouping is less attractive to major players. It all seems to reduce our ability both domestically and internationally? Should a trade agreement affect domestic politics that much?
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By Jamie Stewart, Federated Mountain ClubsFederated Mountain Clubs (FMC), founded in 1931, represents 96 clubs, 22,000 members and 300,000 people that regularly recreate in the New Zealand backcountry. This article first appeared in the June 2020 issue of Backcountry magazine and is reproduced with permission. (Read the original article). ...
Stuff had an appalling story on Sunday about the Ministry of Health's attempts to hide unflattering mental health statistics and sanitise a regular report. The report came out last week, and showed a massive increase in the use of "seclusion", a practice which has been condemned by the UN Committee ...
Another unpleasant surprise at Tiwai Point: in addition to the declared stockpiles of toxic waste, they may have tens of thousands of tons secretly buried in the early 1990's to avoid the RMA: Investigators are looking into claims highly toxic waste has been buried in unmapped sites at Tiwai ...
This morning the government is deciding on the start-date for a trans-Tasman travel bubble. Note the way that that's phrased: the existence of such a bubble is taken as a given, and the only question is how to implement it. Obviously, we're going to have to re-open the borders eventually, ...
Qualified To Give - And Take - Advice: Most Labour MPs are self-conscious members of the meritocracy, meaning they have succeeded where the vast majority of their fellow citizens have failed. The primary political obligation, understood by all members of the First Labour Government, was to listen to the people. ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Jeff Masters, PhD A critical global shipping node – Egypt’s Suez Canal – was reopened on Monday, March 29, six days after being shut down when the 400-meter-long container ship Ever Given became lodged in the canal. A statement by the Suez ...
Red, red whines.That’s all you’ll hear.Not like those glory daysWhen we would cheer. Red, red whines.If it were up to us,We'd make a proper jobOf transforming the world. We would beMore than kind.Offer so much more than spin.Makes us sadWhen we findThere’s so much you won’t begin. Red, red whines.Now ...
Worlds Apart: According to the report of the British Commission on Race and Ethnic Disparities: “family structure and social class had a bigger impact than race on how people’s lives turned out”. These are not the sort of findings that New Zealand fighters against "White Supremacy" and "Colonisation" are eager ...
Caitlin Clark, Colorado State UniversityWhether baked as chips into a cookie, melted into a sweet warm drink or molded into the shape of a smiling bunny, chocolate is one of the world’s most universally consumed foods. Even the biggest chocolate lovers, though, might not recognize what this ancient food ...
Since December 2020, I have been working my way through Sir Arthur Conan Doyle’s corpus of Sherlock Holmes stories, in order of publication. As of today I have managed to finish this adventure ...
Listing of articles linked to on the Skeptical Science Facebook Page during the past week: Sun, Mar 28, 2021 through Sat, Apr 3, 2021 The three apparently most popular posts on our Facebook page this week were John Cook's 23 Ways to Mislead (and how to spot them), Stanton Glantz' blog post ...
The Inward Journey: Indeed, this would appear to constitute the essence of the Gospel of Mary. That the teachings of the Christ are not to be read as a promise of victory over Death; but as an invitation to explore ever more fearlessly the manifold mysteries of Life.THE EASTER STORY is ...
It has never ceased to surprise me that those who profit at the expense of others are so unaware of the harm suffered by those they exploit, and are so convinced that they have a right to do the exploiting and that their profit is a proper and justifiable reward ...
The government’s recent housing package may work; will it do enough?Trick Question: Does New Zealand have a capital gains tax on housing? If you ask the Prime Minister she will say not. It is true that her government is increasing the scope of the ‘bright-line test’ on non-family homes to ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Kristen Pope Trees and other plants have been critical in helping to remove carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere. But newly published scientific findings suggest the clock may be running on vegetation’s forever continuing at the same carbon sink efficiency rate currently ...
Today is the goodest of Fridays. What better way to celebrate a day off work when everything is closed to honour one of the greatest minds ever to nestle his parliamentary buttocks one of those gigantic green seats in the debating chamber. Ladies and gentlement I give you… Mr David ...
Below, for those interested, I copy my submission on the Films, Videos, and Publications Classification (Urgent Interim Classification of Publications and Prevention of Online Harm) Amendment Bill.This is the government bill aiming to create a mandatory Internet filter. The bill is largely unnecessary, but in parts not as bad as people ...
The Green Party supports the open letter released today by a cross-sector coalition calling for the Government to treat all drug use as a health issue, to repeal and replace the Misuse of Drugs Act 1975. ...
Small businesses are not only the heart of our economy – they’re also the heart of our communities. They provide important goods and services, as well as great employment opportunities. They know and love their locals. And after a tough year, they need our support! ...
Green Party spokesperson for Pacific Peoples Teanau Tuiono MP, supports the demand from Pasifika communities fighting for climate action as their homelands are more at risk in the Pacific region. ...
The Green Party supports the six demands for climate action put forward by School Strike for Climate NZ, who are striking across the country today. ...
The Ministry of Justice Māori victimisation report, released today, reinforces what we already know about the impact of systemic racism in Aotearoa and that urgent action is needed. ...
Ricardo Menéndez March’s Members Bill to ensure that disabled New Zealanders do not face discrimination for having a disability assist dog was today pulled from the biscuit tin to be debated in Parliament. ...
More than one million people will be better off from today, thanks to our Government’s changes to the minimum wage, main benefits and superannuation. ...
The Green Party is calling for the Government to do more for New Zealanders who continue to miss out, as main benefits are set to rise by less than $8 a week tomorrow, Thursday 1 April (at the start of the financial year). ...
Sunday 28th March 70 Rongomaiwahine descendants welcomed members of the Green Party’s Māori Caucus, Te Mātāwaka, Dr Elizabeth Kerekere and Teanau Tuiono, to discuss concerns about RocketLab’s operations on the Mahia Peninsula. ...
The Government has introduced the Counter-Terrorism Legislation Bill, designed to boost New Zealand's ability to respond to a wider range of terrorist activities. The Bill strengthens New Zealand’s counter-terrorism legislation and ensures that the right legislative tools are available to intervene early and prevent harm. “This is the Government’s first ...
Coal boiler replacements at a further ten schools, saving an estimated 7,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide over the next ten years Fossil fuel boiler replacements at Southern Institute of Technology and Taranaki DHB, saving nearly 14,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide over the next ten years Projects to achieve a total ...
Attorney-General David Parker today announced the appointment of Cassie Nicholson as Chief Parliamentary Counsel for a term of five years. The Chief Parliamentary Counsel is the principal advisor and Chief Executive of the Parliamentary Counsel Office (PCO). She is responsible for ensuring PCO, which drafts most of New Zealand’s legislation, provides ...
Every part of Government will need to take urgent action to bring down emissions, the Minister for Climate Change, James Shaw said today in response to the recent rise in New Zealand’s greenhouse emissions. The latest annual inventory of New Zealand’s greenhouse gas emissions shows that both gross and net ...
Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister David Clark says Aotearoa New Zealand has become the first country in the world to introduce a law that requires the financial sector to disclose the impacts of climate change on their business and explain how they will manage climate-related risks and opportunities. The Financial ...
Exceptional employment practices in the primary industries have been celebrated at the Good Employer Awards, held this evening at Parliament. “Tonight’s awards provided the opportunity to celebrate and thank those employers in the food and fibres sector who have gone beyond business-as-usual in creating productive, safe, supportive, and healthy work ...
Applications are now invited from all councils for a slice of government funding aimed at improving tourism infrastructure, especially in areas under pressure given the size of their rating bases. Tourism Minister Stuart Nash has already signalled that five South Island regions will be given priority to reflect that jobs ...
The Construction Skills Action Plan has delivered early on its overall target of supporting an additional 4,000 people into construction-related education and employment, says Minister for Building and Construction Poto Williams. Since the Plan was launched in 2018, more than 9,300 people have taken up education or employment opportunities in ...
An innovative new Youth Justice residence designed in partnership with Māori will provide prevention, healing, and rehabilitation services for both young people and their whānau, Children’s Minister Kelvin Davis announced today. Whakatakapokai is located in South Auckland and will provide care and support for up to 15 rangatahi remanded or ...
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern today expressed New Zealand’s sorrow at the death of His Royal Highness The Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh. “Our thoughts are with Her Majesty The Queen at this profoundly sad time. On behalf of the New Zealand people and the Government, I would like to express ...
We, the Home Affairs, Interior, Security and Immigration Ministers of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States of America (the ‘Five Countries’) met via video conference on 7/8 April 2021, just over a year after the outbreak of the COVID-19 global pandemic. Guided by our shared ...
Arts, Culture and Heritage Minister Carmel Sepuloni has today announced the opening of the first round of Ngā Puninga Toi ā-Ahurea me ngā Kaupapa Cultural Installations and Events. “Creating jobs and helping the arts sector rebuild and recover continues to be a key part of the Government’s COVID-19 response,” Carmel ...
Interim legislation that is already proving to keep people safer from drugs will be made permanent, Health Minister Andrew Little says. Research by Victoria University, on behalf of the Ministry of Health, shows that the Government’s decision in December to make it legal for drug-checking services to operate at festivals ...
Public consultation launched on ways to improve behaviour and reduce damage Tighter rules proposed for either camping vehicles or camping locations Increased penalties proposed, such as $1,000 fines or vehicle confiscation Rental companies may be required to collect fines from campers who hire vehicles Public feedback is sought on proposals ...
The Government is continuing to support Air New Zealand while aviation markets stabilise and the world moves towards more normal border operations. The Crown loan facility made available to Air New Zealand in March 2020 has been extended to a debt facility of up to $1.5 billion (an additional $600 ...
Christchurch’s Richmond suburb will soon have a new community hub, following the gifting of a red-zoned property by Land Information New Zealand (LINZ) to the Richmond Community Gardens Trust. The Minister for Land Information, Damien O’Connor said that LINZ, on behalf of the Crown, will gift a Vogel Street house ...
Minister for Pacific Peoples Aupito William Sio says the reopening of the Ministry for Pacific Peoples’ (MPP) Languages Funding in 2021 will make sure there is a future for Pacific languages. “Language is the key to the wellbeing for Pacific people. It affirms our identity as Pasifika and ...
It is a pleasure to be here tonight. Thank you Cameron for the introduction and thank you for ERANZ for also hosting this event. Last week in fact, we had one of the largest gatherings in our sector, Downstream 2021. I have heard from my officials that the discussion on ...
Research, Science and Innovation Minister Megan Woods has today announced the 16 projects that will together get $3.9 million through the 2021 round of Te Pūnaha Hihiko: Vision Mātauranga Capability Fund, further strengthening the Government’s commitment to Māori knowledge in science and innovation. “We received 78 proposals - the highest ...
The Government is delivering on a key election commitment to tackle climate change, by banning new low and medium temperature coal-fired boilers and partnering with the private sector to help it transition away from fossil fuels. This is the first major announcement to follow the release of the Climate Commission’s ...
Six projects, collectively valued at over $70 million are delivering new schools, classrooms and refurbished buildings across Central Otago and are helping to ease the pressure of growing rolls in the area, says Education Minister Chris Hipkins. The National Education Growth Plan is making sure that sufficient capacity in the ...
Two more schools are now complete as part of the Christchurch Schools Rebuild Programme, with work about to get under way on another, says Education Minister Chris Hipkins. Te Ara Koropiko – West Spreydon School will welcome students to their new buildings for the start of Term 2. The newly ...
The Government is acting to ensure decisions on responding to the next phase of the COVID-19 pandemic are informed by the best available scientific evidence and strategic public health advice. “New Zealand has worked towards an elimination strategy which has been successful in keeping our people safe and our economy ...
Six Māori scholars have been awarded Ngārimu VC and the 28th (Māori) Battalion Memorial scholarships for 2021, Associate Education Minister and Ngārimu Board Chair, Kelvin Davis announced today. The prestigious Manakura Award was also presented for the first time since 2018. “These awards are a tribute to the heroes of the 28th ...
New Zealand’s aerospace industry is getting a boost through the German Aerospace Centre (DLR), to grow the capability of the sector and potentially lead to joint space missions, Research, Science and Innovation Minister Megan Woods has announced. 12 New Zealand organisations have been chosen to work with world-leading experts at ...
The Government is backing more initiatives to boost New Zealand’s food and fibre sector workforce, Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor announced today. “The Government and the food and fibres sector have been working hard to fill critical workforce needs. We've committed to getting 10,000 more Kiwis into the sector over the ...
Minister for Social Development and Employment Carmel Sepuloni has welcomed the first reading of the Social Security (Subsequent Child Policy Removal) Amendment Bill in the House this evening. “Tonight’s first reading is another step on the way to removing excessive sanctions and obligations for people receiving a Main Benefit,” says ...
The Government has taken a significant step towards delivering on its commitment to improve the legislation around mental health as recommended by He Ara Oranga – the report of the Government Inquiry into Mental Health and Addiction, Health Minister Andrew Little says. The Mental Health (Compulsory Assessment and Treatment) Amendment ...
Local Government Minister Nanaia Mahuta has welcomed the Local Government (Rating of Whenua Māori) Amendment Bill passing its third reading today. “After nearly 100 years of a system that was not fit for Māori and did not reflect the partnership we have come to expect between Māori and the Crown, ...
New Zealand’s successful management of COVID means quarantine-free travel between New Zealand and Australia will start on Monday 19 April, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced today. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins confirmed the conditions for starting to open up quarantine free travel with Australia have ...
Minister for Treaty of Waitangi Negotiations Andrew Little welcomed ngā uri o Ngāti Hinerangi to Parliament today to witness the third reading of their Treaty settlement legislation, the Ngāti Hinerangi Claims Settlement Bill. “I want to acknowledge ngā uri o Ngāti Hinerangi and the Crown negotiations teams for working tirelessly ...
Minister of Police Poto Williams has announced the members of the Ministers Arms Advisory Group, established to ensure balanced advice to Government on firearms that is independent of Police. “The Ministers Arms Advisory Group is an important part of delivering on the Government’s commitment to ensure we maintain the balance ...
Kiri Allan, Minister of Conservation and Emergency Management will undertake a leave of absence while she undergoes medical treatment for cervical cancer, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced today. “I consider Kiri not just a colleague, but a friend. This news has been devastating. But I also know that Kiri is ...
Excellent progress has been made at the new prison development at Waikeria, which will boost mental health services and improve rehabilitation opportunities for people in prison, Corrections Minister Kelvin Davis says. Kelvin Davis was onsite at the new build to meet with staff and see the construction first-hand, following a ...
To reduce the trauma of road crashes caused by drug impaired drivers, an Independent Expert Panel on Drug Driving has proposed criminal limits and blood infringement thresholds for 25 impairing drugs, Minister of Police Poto Williams and Transport Minister Michael Wood announced today. The Land Transport (Drug Driving) Amendment Bill ...
Temporary COVID-19 immigration powers will be extended to May 2023, providing continued flexibility to support migrants, manage the border, and help industries facing labour shortages, Immigration Minister Kris Faafoi announced today. “Over the past year, we have had to make rapid decisions to vary visa conditions, extend expiry dates, and ...
Temporary COVID-19 immigration powers will be extended to May 2023, providing continued flexibility to support migrants, manage the border, and help industries facing labour shortages, Immigration Minister Kris Faafoi announced today. “Over the past year, we have had to make rapid decisions to vary visa conditions, extend expiry dates, and ...
The Government is expanding its Pregnancy and Parenting Programme so more women and whānau can access specialist support to minimise harm from alcohol and other drugs, Health Minister Andrew Little says. “We know these supports help improve wellbeing and have helped to reduce addiction, reduced risk for children, and helped ...
*** Please check against delivery *** It’s an honour to be here in Rūātoki today, a rohe with such a proud and dynamic history of resilience, excellence and mana. Tūhoe moumou kai, moumou taonga, moumou tangata ki te pō. The Ahuwhenua Trophy competition is the legacy of a seed planted ...
The economic recovery from COVID-19 continues to be reflected in the Government’s books, which are again better than expected. The Crown accounts for the eight months to the end of February 2021 showed both OBEGAL and the operating balance remain better than forecast in the Half Year Economic and Fiscal ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Scott Morrison will hold twice-weekly meetings of the national cabinet for the “foreseeable future”, as the government battles to get its slow and problem-laden vaccine rollout back on course. The Prime Minister says he has ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra A wronged woman with a razor-sharp mind and meticulous records is a dangerous creature. Especially when delivering a counter punch to a prime minister who’d denounced her in the bully pit of parliament when he ...
Analysis by Bryce Edwards Political scientist, Dr Bryce Edwards. How seriously does the Māori Party take issues of corruption and the untoward influence of big money in politics? Not very, based on how it’s handling a political finance scandal in which three large donations were kept hidden from the public. ...
Government ministers are confident no taxpayer money was caught up in donations to the Māori Party that have been referred to police for not being declared in time. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jamie Triccas, Professor of Medical Microbiology, University of Sydney As AstraZeneca is no longer the preferred vaccine for Australian adults under 50, attention is turning to what other COVID-19 vaccine options are in our arsenal. The federal government has ordered 40 million ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sarah Scully, Senior Meteorologist, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Across most of Australia this week, people have woken up and thought “Goodness, it’s cold.” Summer doonas are being changed to winter doonas. Heaters are being switched on. Ugg boots are being dug out ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sarah Scully, Senior Meteorologist, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Across most of Australia this week, people have woken up and thought “Goodness, it’s cold.” Summer doonas are being changed to winter doonas. Heaters are being switched on. Ugg boots are being dug out ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Daniel Palmer, Professor, RMIT University Review: Small Business, published by M.33, Melbourne, 2021 David Wadelton understands that photography is a form of time travel. Small Business, his new book of photographs, transports us to Melbourne’s vanishing architecture of interior workplaces created by ...
The Council of Trade Unions wants the government to do more to improve working lives for New Zealanders. CTU President Richard Wagstaff will tonight address Minister of Workplace Relations Michael Wood, other Labour and Green Party Members of Parliament, ...
Comedian Janaye Henry is on a theatre tour of Aotearoa teaching teens about sex, and is writing us a non-Tourism NZ-approved diary of her travels. This week she’s in Ōtepoti Dunedin.I arrived in Ōtepoti Dunedin wide-eyed and itching to explore. My roommate was itchy too, although it wasn’t until the ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Martin, Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University It’s tempting to think home prices are soaring because there aren’t enough homes. But that can’t explain the sudden takeoff from about the year 2000, the sudden takeoff from about ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael O’Neil, Executive Director, SA Centre for Economic Studies, University of Adelaide Wiping off Whyalla has become something of a macabre sport. All manner of things have been said to be about to destroy the steelworks town, including (briefly) the 2012-2014 carbon ...
Jonthan Cotton speaks to the people behind a programme teaching modern authentic leadership about what makes a great leader in 2021. When it comes to making change, humankind has historically looked to its most exceptional and extroverted people to lead us through its most challenging problems. Plato had a few opinions ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mark Quigley, Associate Professor of Earthquake Science, The University of Melbourne Timor-Leste is reeling after heavy rain caused severe floods and landslides over the Easter weekend, killing at least 42 people. Rates of COVID-19 in Timor-Leste are also on the rise. Together, ...
Whoopee – another first for our nation. According to the headline on a Beehive press statement, NZ becomes first in world for climate reporting. This drew attention to the announcement that New Zealand has become the first country in the world to introduce a law that requires the financial sector ...
Everyone has their own take on the best era for culture. Some think music was better in the ’70s, or theatre was better in the ’90s – but when did gaming peak? Exactly 20 years ago, argues Sam Brooks.Gaming is bigger than it’s ever been right now. Through the device ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tony Walker, Vice-chancellor’s fellow, La Trobe University When China’s ambassador to Australia, Cheng Jingye, summoned journalists to the Chinese embassy last week, this was not an occasion for polite exchanges on a troubled relationship between Beijing and Canberra. Cheng was intent on ...
“The Speaker’s attempt to pitch a new Parliamentary palace as a ‘ wooden office block ’ will not fly with taxpayers,” says Taxpayers’ Union spokesman Louis Houlbrooke. “Fundamentally, you can’t trust politicians with property projects. ...
Does New Zealand have a contemporary foreign policy, let alone a defence policy? Some of our nearest and dearest are beginning to wonder. Ambassadors in Wellington are among the world’s most discreet but word is beginning to trickle out. What is the government up to? Why does it move at ...
Six dogs have suffered broken legs at New Zealand greyhound races in the past two weeks. On Sunday, in a video broadcast by the TAB, in Race 3 at Auckland, greyhound All Day Long suffered a harrowing fall and broken leg. On the same day, at the same ...
The latest inventory of New Zealand's climate pollution shows, yet again, that the Government must take urgent action to make farming part of the climate solution, says Greenpeace. The Ministry for the Environment today released its 2019 inventory ...
Māori activist Mike Smith’s chainsaw attack on the lone pine tree atop Maungakiekie / One Tree Hill was one of the most memorable New Zealand news stories of the 1990s. In this episode of The Single Object, he explains why he did it.Late one October night in 1994, nearby residents ...
The latest cohort of school students took to the streets last week to demand climate change action. In Wellington, several thousand strikers marched to Parliament.Izzy Cook, one of the organisers, said they had their own list of demands.“Investing in a just transition to a sustainable future, reducing agricultural ...
In the latest episode of The Spinoff’s media podcast The Fold, Duncan Greive is joined by broadcasting and media minister Kris Fa’afoi to talk about the media transition and what a ‘sexy’ new public media entity might look like. Kris Faafoi is one of those rare ministers who has actually ...
Despite Aotearoa gaining international praise for its COVID-19 response, two independent reports commissioned by Te Pūtea Whakatupu Trust have found that Māori vulnerability and resilience to these large-scale crises remain largely unchanged for the past ...
The health minister’s stonewalling of any attempt to fix our woeful drug laws doesn’t only fly in the face of overseas trends, but what’s currently happening in and around our own parliament.Yesterday, more than two dozen health and social service organisations, including the NZMA, the Public Health Association and the ...
Editor’s Note: Here below is a list of the main issues currently under discussion in New Zealand and links to media coverage. Click here to subscribe to Bryce Edwards’ Political Roundup and New Zealand Politics Daily. Today’s contentMaori Party referred to Police over donations Henry Cooke (Stuff): Māori Party referred to police over ...
Covid-19 lockdowns resulted in a rise in online gambling. Kiwibank has given customers the option to block gambling transactions if they need help. A year ago, when an entire country went home and stayed home for lockdown, most of us were grappling with some kind of anxiety: about health, money, or ...
Source: Council on Hemispheric Affairs – Analysis-Reportage Laura IesueFrom Miami, Florida On March 29, 2020, Guatemala’s President Giammattei implemented an eight-day, country-wide curfew to stop the spread of COVID-19.[1] Ultimately, this lockdown would continue until October 1, 2020, as the virus continued to travel across communities.[2] While ...
Welcome to The Spinoff’s live updates for April 13, bringing you the latest news throughout the day. Get in touch at stewart@thespinoff.co.nzThe Spinoff can’t exist without our members. If you want to help us stay curious and keep our team across New Zealand’s breaking stories, please donate today. 7.50am: ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Deborah Gleeson, Associate Professor in Public Health, La Trobe University COVAX, the global initiative to coordinate the distribution of COVID-19 vaccines in an equitable way, is crucial for bringing the pandemic under control. But COVAX’s aim of delivering 2 billion doses to ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Luise Kazda, PhD candidate, University of Sydney During my daughter’s challenging first year of school, we discovered how much effort it took her to sit and learn. She was the youngest in her class, placing her at higher risk of being diagnosed ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Cheryl Durrant, Adjunct Associate Professor, UNSW Climate change is a hot topic in Australian security circles, as it poses an emerging threat to our national resilience and way of life. As a new report from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) last ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jim Stanford, Economist and Director, Centre for Future Work, Australia Institute; Honorary Professor of Political Economy, University of Sydney Fewer than 2% of Australian employees work for the minimum wage (now $19.84 an hour). But the federal Fair Work Commission’s annual decision ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrea Waling, ARC DECRA Senior Research Fellow in Sex & Sexuality, La Trobe University The Netflix drama The One centres around a geneticist who invents a new matchmaking service. It uses DNA to help people find their romantic and sexual match: their ...
Good morning and welcome to The Bulletin. In today’s edition: Parties under pressure over undeclared donations, more emerges on exports to murderous militaries, and National refusing to back Climate Commission draft plans.Both the Māori Party and National are in trouble over donations that weren’t declared in time, but one of ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brendan Duffy, Lecturer in Applied Geoscience, The University of Melbourne Most people know that Mount Everest is the tallest mountain but I want to know for how long it has been the tallest, and for how long in the future it ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Claire Breen, Professor of Law, University of Waikato Recent media coverage of women not being able to get treatment for birth injuries highlights yet another example of gender bias in healthcare in New Zealand. Following a policy review, the Accident Compensation Corporation ...
News highlights: Majority of experts expect rents to increase due to higher investor costs 57% disagree with extending the bright-line test All experts predict the OCR to hold at 0.25% in April Experts are concerned that tenants will cop higher rents ...
When local authorities tighten gambling regulations, player losses at the pokie machines are reduced. Around 10 percent of the New Zealand population is impacted by problem gambling. Those impacts include poor health, psychological distress, financial ...
From humble beginnings in Siberia, Taupo teenager Annabel Francis has taken the New Zealand showjumping world by storm and is on the verge of her first Olympics. There’s a couple of things which make Annabel Francis stand out in her world of showjumping. The first is physical. As her coach, ...
The government's move to make it mandatory for all testing of border workers to be recorded in a central register is being derided as months too late. ...
The future of Samoa’s next government remains in the balance as the final election votes are counted, with a weeks-long wait for a definitive result - or a legal challenge - among the possible outcomes After 39 years of one-party rule, Samoan voters may - just - have finally looked ...
Eden Park thanks Auckland councillors for their supposed 'support' for concerts at the venue, offering them free hospitality to watch the first concert. But the invite hasn't gone down well with some, as Matthew Scott reports.An offer of a free ticket for councillors to the first concert at Eden ...
We resume our series on Charlotte Grimshaw's memoir. Today: ReadingRoom literary editor Steve Braunias on navigating a friendship The fact that I'm friends with Charlotte Grimshaw as well as her parents Karl and Kay Stead, who she lovingly, persistently and ferociously hauls over the coals in her new memoir The ...
WATCH: Silver Ferns manager Esther Molloy talks about the stem cell transplant that saved her young daughter's life. Esther Molloy's dedication to the Silver Ferns is second only to her devotion to her family. And she knows the Silver Ferns always have Team Molloy's back, especially through the very tough times. ...
As QAnon adherents and Donald Trump supporters stormed the US Capitol, officials in New Zealand kept a close eye on how our alt-right community was responding and sharing content Government officials closely monitored the online activity of New Zealand's alt-right community as their American counterparts stormed the US Capitol building, as ...
Basic information on is missing, our screening programmes aren't up to scratch, and people are dying unnecessarily. Dr Peter Saxton lays out the problems with sexual health in this country. Sexual health has been making headlines. The spotlight has been on human papillomavirus (HPV), our most common sexually transmitted infection ...
Vaccinations are up and running, but are they happening fast enough, why haven’t all frontline workers had their first shot, and what about the stats? Justin Giovannetti outlines the concerns being aired.While New Zealand’s Covid-19 vaccination programme is under way, it’s already hitting some bumps on the road to July ...
News of the travel suspension on flights from India resurrects uncomfortable memories for Melanie Sharma-Barrow – and other women of Indian descent like her, she writes.Twenty-two years ago, at university, I studied “citizenship and ideology”, a course exploring how ideology feeds the principles underpinning citizenship. When I learned about the ...
COMMENT: The Royals have repeatedly indicated NZ’s constitutional future is a matter for NZ to decide. They are not afraid of the conversation – but we are. The Public Trust Office constantly reminds us of the importance of leaving our affairs in order. Can the same be said of New Zealand, as ...
While some Green MPs are enjoying their newfound political freedom, co-leader Marama Davidson is fighting the restraints that come with holding ministerial office. ...
No one would argue against a Child Protection Act - but is a register for child sex abusers actually protecting children? Urgent changes to the law on the child sex offender register mean that hundreds of convicted offenders are back on the list. But one justice rights advocate says it doesn't ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jonathan Nott, Professor of Physical Geography, James Cook University Tropical Cyclone Seroja battered parts of Western Australia’s coast on Sunday night, badly damaging buildings and leaving thousands of people without power. While the full extent of the damage caused by the Category ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tamasailau Suaalii Sauni, Associate Professor in Criminology Programme, University of Auckland Samoan politics is on a knife edge. After the country voted in general elections on April 9, counting so far has resulted in a dead heat between the two major parties. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Robert Wellington, Senior Lecturer, Art History and Visual Culture, Australian National University In this series we pay tribute to the art we wish could visit — and hope to see once travel restrictions are lifted. If you are a country house fanatic ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jane E Frawley, NHMRC Research Fellow, University of Technology Sydney The federal government’s recommendation last week that the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine is now the preferred vaccine for adults under 50 has shaken public confidence in the COVID-19 vaccine rollout. The Australian Technical ...
Health Minister Andrew Little has shot down calls for a swift overhaul of drug laws, saying any major change would first have to go back to a referendum. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Bela Stantic, Professor, Director of Big data and smart analytics lab – IIIS, Griffith University Australia’s COVID-19 vaccination rollout has hit yet another crossroads. Public confidence has wavered following the federal government’s announcement last week that the Pfizer vaccine was the preferred ...
“It’s unacceptable the Government won’t play hardball with unions and force those employees unwilling to get a COVID vaccine to vacate MIQ premises for another 18 days,” says ACT Leader David Seymour. “Stop pussyfooting about and take the ...
A year after MIQ was established, 86 percent of workers there have been vaccinated, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says, while also signalling a state memorial service for Prince Philip. ...
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Why building more houses will not fix prices – economist Brian Easton. https://www.pundit.co.nz/content/the-sources-of-house-price-inflation
I'm inclined to agree. Shortages are simply an intractable backdrop against which interest, and monetary policy generally, serve to exacerbate the problems that shortages cause.
Why must house prices be fixed?
because people need to be able to afford to live in them.
If you had answered:
Because people need to be able to afford to own them, I would have agreed.
House price fixing concerns ownership. It certainly has secondary effects, but mostly, the price of the house is the cost of owning it.
Easton is making some massive correlations, but no useful causes.
but mostly, the price of the house is the cost of owning it.
As I've said a few times before; if you think the rent is high – try owning it.
owning and renting are two different things. And renting to use for a while should never cost more then owning does, and currently renters pay the mortgage, the interest, and what ever else the owner wants out of the property.
btw, my mortgage that i pay currently is 200$ per week.
you can't even rent a dog kennel for that amount anywhere in NZ.
I reckon, my mortgage is $210 a week, if I rented the same house it would be double, and with no return. Free insulation, cheap rates, I could also halve that if I got a flatmate (which I may do once my kids leave). I don't take this for granted, I realise I'm one of the lucky few.
+1
ditto here. And the bank don't come to inspect every three month.
Have to strongly disagree with you there RL, we are in our first own house (nearly freehold) after renting for 30+years the last 15 of those with three children, owning your own home has for us probably been pretty similar, maybe a bit more expensive but not a lot, and especially when you take into account all the benefits…the main one is not having to deal with Ma&Pa landlords they are generally like spawns from hell, they have made renting a fucking nightmare, it is awful, and no country that has the resources NZ has should let it’s citizens endure that type of life…welcome to free market liberalism I guess, markets operating just as they should…Thanks David Lange.
Gone are the old days when you would rent a house and live in it for years and hardly be bothered as long as you paid your rent and maintained the property…our last ten years of renting were a disaster (with one exception) as far as landlords went…even if owning a home was/is more expensive, how can you put a price on the endless stress and worry and more importantly the hundred of subtle ways it damages and undermines children having little to no long term home security.
Nope.
Owning a home provides security that no amount of rental law cannot.
The trouble is that house prices do not reflect the cost of owning a home. They reflect the cost of the expected medium-term capital gains (post bright-line). It wasn't a problem when they reflected the expected gains upon retirement and downsizing, but now who honestly expects to be in that house for thirty years? Or do they expect to flip it in ten years or so?
Agree with the security bit. I've seen the pro's and cons of home ownership debated at length in New Zealand literature. They're pretty even.
I'd like to see some proper policy work done on the effects of Andrew Little's current extension of the Bright Line test, and the likeley extension to 10 coming up. Doesn't seem to have made much difference to house prices at all – so if it's not working as intended it should be removed.
Perhaps that is a point of the Easton paper – no one issue will solve the housing crisis. After all the current presumption of intent is flawed, but reversing it would mean that gains up to the time legislation takes effect are likely to remain tax free, so most people would not pay much tax for many years; but owners of rental properties may hold for longer to defer the payment. Requiring a bigger amount of real (not borrowed) equity may be possible , but that would be easier if we increased wages so that the government does not need social welfare or Working for Families to enable new home buyers to afford to live with a family.
If he had started with the 1% homeless crisis – which is about as bad as it gets in the OECD, I would have agreed with him. He didn't.
Pretty even for people who can afford to choose their housing tenure type.
For people at the mercy of a speculative landlord, not so much.
I have a good landlord. Doesn't put the rent up every week etc. . But a batten holder wore out 8 months ago – and it only got fixed last month – no bedroom light all winter. Rentiers are oppressors, even the the good ones.
And of course the inability of contemporary NZers to afford their own homes is the final disproof of neoliberalism. It was supposed to make us more prosperous if you remember – on the contrary, it has impoverished us. Voters, looking at neoliberals think: "Were you really that stupid that you swallowed the hype in spite of our warnings? Or were you just corrupt?"
Because their speculative growth is entrenching even more deeply NZ's trans-generational class system.
Even if a full-time worker can rustle up a 10-20% deposit, I strongly suspect most NZers probably wouldn't earn enough to service the mortgage on a median-priced house.
For me, it was break-even with no margin for error five years ago. Now? It's a joke. And I have a good job, no dependants, and a retirement fund, but houses are more than twice the price. Almost literally – I looked up that house recently. It's gone from $230k to $450k. Has any actual worker's salary doubled in five years?
Absolutely the personal stories are valid.
I'm kinda waiting for evidence of the K-shaped economy to hit.
And it's indisputable that salaries haven't kept up with house prices.
But if Easton had tracked house prices, salaries, and national home ownership, he would have seen no collapse in average ownership at all. Even as prices skyrocketed.
In fact we're still better than nearly all other developed countries for home ownership.
Easton calls it speculation. 65% of us call it risk management.
Might pay to check the stats before making wild claims
https://www.stats.govt.nz/reports/housing-in-aotearoa-2020#:~:text=At%20the%20time%20of%20the%202018%20Census%2C%20New%20Zealand's%20homeownership,to%2064.5%20percent%20of%20households.
and falling.
Easton’s analysis is sound and he is not alone with the conclusions….it has been well canvassed and the only major dispute is around to what degree other factors impact.
Oh don't worry I checked. Which is why I stated 65% home ownership.
And I also checked on the international benchmarks for developed countries.
It's barely moved downward since the last time they measured. You can check.
You just have to read beyond the hysteria.
stating 65% mean sweet FA unless you also state from where it came and what the trend is…as you well know.
and I too have checked…"and falling"
"Home Ownership Rate in New Zealand is expected to reach 64.29 percent by the end of 2020, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations."
If youre not already you should be a politician
The home owner percentage has barely moved since 2013.
In the site you cite, go into the full statistical report, fig 15 p 28.
https://www.stats.govt.nz/reports/housing-in-aotearoa-2020
Maybe 2021 changes all of that, looking forward to the evidence.
You will get your evidence (sadly)…
"In 1991, 61% of people aged 25-29 owned their own home, but by 2018 this had dropped to 44%.
Ownership rates have also fallen for people in their 30s, dropping from 79% in 1991 to 59% in 2018."
https://www.interest.co.nz/property/108312/home-ownership-levels-are-continuing-decline-especially-younger-people
figures 17 -20 from the report if I recall correctly
And the explanation is glaringly obvious, the inflated prices relative to income
And as outlined below there is more to it than just economics – it's the relentlessly increasing age of first marriage that also means that 20-29 age group just aren't interested in buying homes.
Another factor is the rise in divorce rates – usually one partner will finish up renting for a period afterward.
This doesn't discount the obvious affordability issue in play – but it does suggest there are often more factors involved than the headlines make out.
Of course, unmarried people dont buy houses….how could i miss that.
And the 20 -29 year olds arnt interested in buying homes….because they increasingly cant afford them….the same applies to those in their 30s…and the ones that eventually can take considerably longer to raise the increasing deposits.
Those decreased ownership rates in the cohorts coming through are going to have a major impact on the total ownership rates as the proportionately higher ownership rate cohort approaching 70 move into care/die
I would argue one can own multiple houses but only one is ever your home but that's an aside.
To do a real comparison a similar breakdown as above is needed for the historical data.
https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/news/business/mum-and-dad-landlords-own-more-than-a-third-of-property/
And that's households (where homeowners are a member of the household). Only half of individuals own the home they live in, directly or indirectly (same link, p34).
Additionally, although $value of lending to first home buyers peaked last year at 20%, the proportion of actual borrowers at the time was 12%.
The longer this situation goes on, the more nailed in the inequity will be.
"no collapse in average ownership at all"
Are you serious?
65% is barely moved from the last time they measured.
You sound like a CC denialist – "oooh look, this part of the graph is flat!"
A 13% drop in fact.
Go into the full statistical report, fig 15 p 28.
https://www.stats.govt.nz/reports/housing-in-aotearoa-2020
Maybe 2021 changes all of that, looking forward to the evidence.
Maybe 2021 will be the start of an ice age.
Heck of a change within a generation, though
If by "generation" you mean the peak in the early 1990s, I'd agree.
If by "generation" you mean back to the 1960s when everything about New Zealand was supposed to be our egalitarian apogee, no not really it's the same.
You not only can't read a graph it seems you can't even read:
"Homeownership at lowest rate since the 1950s" – the heading of the graph you link to.
I thought "generation" generally referred to thirty years or so?
But then if 68.9% is "the same" as 64.5%, I suspect we need to find a specific dictionary to agree upon for a common vernacular.
so not just 1950s but early 1950s.
Yup – the demographics don't lie. Before Rogergnomics the median age at marriage was around 23. After it was 33. Poverty. The social science folk can give the lie to every pretense of good governance.
Not everything is primarily caused by rogernomics. Reducing the social expectation for marriage wasn't just economic.
Keep telling yourself that – the old prof that ranted it at me would not be persuaded. He had plenty more too.
Data doesn't seem to match his claim.
It definitely moved a couple of years in the 1980s, but nowhere near ten years and the median age is still only around 31.
The data here suggests that the more developed a nation is, the faster the rate at which the age of 'first marriage' has been increasing.
The best explanation does not appear to be 'poverty'.
That would be of course because the data aren't set up to capture it.
Measure GDP alone and you could imagine Rogergnomics as something other than a brutal failure. But you would be letting data trickle through your fingers – politically convenient no doubt.
The first world nations have been lying to themselves for a good while now – with falling "labour force participation" instead of unemployment and so on. The lies are getting pretty thick. If everything were apples home ownership wouldn't have had to fall, nor would child (the only politically acceptable poverty) be so high.
All those suicides blamed on mental health too – same trick the Soviets resorted to. Our governors have no standards at all.
All those different countries – and none of them 'properly' capturing age of first marriage to your satisfaction.
Amazing.
Hardly – I'm not trying to extend my assertion around the world – it was you that had to reach beyond NZ to grasp at the straw that because other countries experience lesser forms of the same graphic failure, the brutal sham that was Rogergnomics was somehow excusable.
We all understand the appeal to the vanity of policy makers of a ‘great leap forward’, and I use Mao’s term deliberately, because Rogergnomics was every bit as hubris-laden, destructive, misguided, and undemocratic.
Typical debating fail – jumping to unjustified conclusions. Nowhere have I attempted to excuse neo-liberalism. Indeed if you'd been paying attention I have explicitly written a post on exactly why I regard it as 'out of bounds'.
So nowhere have I attempted to excuse Rogernomics – that’s a just a figment of your imagination. But to attribute everything bad that ever happened in this country to this singular cause is another kind of fail.
The inability to confront and address mistakes is typical of dysfunctional institutions like corporations or corrupted governments.
It isn't the price of the house that is relevant to the person buying it. It is the cost of servicing the mortgage. Here are a few graphs on housing costs. Between 2008 and 2019 the average household income in Auckland went up by about 50%. Thar was from $61.4k to $95.2k. The average weekly payment for people who had a mortgage only went up by about 20%. That was from $384/week to $460/week
https://figure.nz/chart/0Z1fITz5qe80b2tD-szOL5Pza2PB8N51f
When you look at the cost of buying a home the most important factor is going to be the mortgage interest rate. First mortgage rates in 2008 were about 8%. They are now, if the ASB quote in front of me is typical 2.29% for a 1 year fixed rate.
https://teara.govt.nz/files/g-23100-data_0.txt
https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/mortgage-rates.html
The second most important factor is going to be the deposit. If house prices go up by 17%, as they typically did last year the deposit will do the same and that is really going to hurt the first home buyer.
A note. This is not an area on Economics in which I have much knowledge or experience so all the numbers I have reference may be irrelevant. At a first glance though it wouldn't appear that people are much affected by the price rises while interest rates are dropping to the point that in real terms the money is free to borrow.
The commentary in the Stats NZ work on this supports this cost-of-mortgage issue. But it fails the obvious corollary: as prices go up, so too does the potential equity for deposits from Bank Of Mum And Dad (especially when they downsize, or die).
As a sort of comparison.
Bought house in 1980 with 30% deposit Interest was abt 30% of salary then
Now a 60% loan would cost about 25% of the same level of salary.
Having said that the amount of deposit today would be about 300k
Even without interest, the average borrowing for a first home loan is almost half a mil.
That ain't chump change to pay back weekly, by itself.
People buying their first homes need to be doing damned well.
Unless you can figure out some way of paying the same price while not borrowing so much, the two figures are pretty good substitutes for each other when it comes to looking at why people can't afford to own their own hovel.
I am not disputing that it isn't easy. Mind you I can remember when my mortgage rate was 13%. That was back in the 70's and I knew people who were paying more.
However I had a quick look at payments using the BNZ calculator.
On an $800k house with a 20% deposit and a 30 year term at 2.29% you pay $1,132,fortnight. On a property at half the price, and half the deposit for the same 30 years loan you would pay exactly the same amount if you were paying 8.5% which would have been quite likely back in 2008. Half the amount borrowed but the same $1,132 at the much higher interest rate.
On the monthly income for a household at the average number of $$95.2k/year you would be paying 31% of your income on your mortgage.
coolcool.
Where did the first home buyer get the extra $80k for the 20% deposit in 2020? Their income only went up by less than 50%. And their rent payments are through the roof, as well, so their savings might struggle to hit a wage inflation equivalent.
You did notice I said, in my first comment.
"The second most important factor is going to be the deposit. If house prices go up by 17%, as they typically did last year the deposit will do the same and that is really going to hurt the first home buyer."
I don't know. I haven't been in the market for a mortgage for 30 years. We did save our deposit for our first house in about 18 months though by living on about half of one of our two incomes. The total furniture we had in a one bedroom flat cost us about $100 dollars. I will admit we had one 10 year old car though. Entertainment was limited to barbecues with friends or going to the beach.
These days families are going to have to start thinking intergenerationally – as the Indians and Chinese are accustomed to doing.
Folks know which generation fucked it up.
Well the Chinese especially tend to regard their elders with considerable respect – and not so much of the 'ok boomer'.
The point is that if you want to be prosperous it takes more than just a good job – you need to plan ahead and use each generation's capacities and abilities for the benefit of the entire family.
And of course rising divorce rates over the period in question also have their impact – nothing destroys family wealth over time quite like it.
Only in a society with entrenched inequity and social mobility that does not reflect individual merit.
It's not a binary choice. Yes merit and mobility are valued highly in the West – but a well ordered and stable family over multiple generations will always have an advantage.
Not in a meritocracy.
Why not? And how would you prevent family success from benefiting the whole family? Are parents to be prohibited from helping their children if they can?
Insisting on nothing but a pure meritocracy seems an absolutist view to me.
In a meritocracy, it doesn't matter if parents help their kids or not. That's the point.
But my objection to the current situation isn't that NZ isn't a perfect meritocracy. My objection is that we're becoming less of a meritocracy. You can cloak it in "respect for elders" and "family stability" all you want, it's the simple greed of a previous generation turning into a dynastic problem.
I've said it before and I'll say it again: his solutions to the problems he described were bunk, but Marx was a spot-on critic of capitalism and feudalism. They're just two sides of the same coin. The Duke's ancestor hit peasants over the head with clubs, the magnate's ancestor paid other people to hit workers over the head with clubs.
In a meritocracy, it doesn't matter if parents help their kids or not.
Tell that to the Chinese or Indians busy building lots of intergenerational wealth in this country – property, businesses, you name it.
The simple reality is that a stable family is one of the best predictors of good social outcomes across the board.
Correction: the one of the biggest predictors of future wealth is parental wealth, and it's getting worse.
BTW, not sure where you're getting your data on household wealth by ethnicity?
So today to save a $160k deposit in 18 months from one income, that would be an income of $100k a year.
Basically, the govt needs to either build shitloads of affordable homes or build shitloads of state houses and have say a HNZ 5% stock turnover for modernisation in addition to a general increase in stock levels, sold through a rent to own equity deal.
Because this is a formalisation of an intergenerational class system. Not the one we've been ignoring and pretending doesn't exist, an actual regression back towards feudalism. Not all the way back, but a definite step back.
"So today to save a $160k deposit in 18 months from one income".
A minor correction but it wasn't one income. It was one and a half incomes. We lived on one quarter of our after tax income and saved the rest.
That was quite common at the time. We were, like all our friends, trying very hard to get to own our own home. We were also willing to live a great deal further out from the CDB than many people seem to be willing to do today and lots of people did not have a car.
I found it quite hilarious a couple of years ago to read about a 30 something woman who was complaining that she couldn't afford a first house. Her idea of a first house was 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms in Roseneath, Mt Vic or Mt Cook. There was no way she was going out to the distant suburb of Hataitai. If you aren't a Wellingtonian look it up. It would be comparable to refusing to live way out in the wilds of Epsom I suppose.
So to do it today, that's still two people in the same household earning well above the median income.
You forgot to bring up coffee and avocado smash.
This article is in some ways quite good on looking separately at both sides of the housing market. Though I didn't really like Eastons alternative of demand backed by offshore financing, as this doesn't either fit the facts.
First the banking system doesn't lend out existing deposits but instead creates additional deposits when extending loans. Second the fact that a trade deficit was occuring simultaneously to an expansion in borrowing will mean an expansion in overseas ownership domestically, but a lot of the overseas trades are not in $NZ so in what sense is that supporting lending into a housing market almost exclusively trading in $NZ. This explanation is equally likely to misslead as the explanation it replaces.
The bank may create credit but they are still required to hold reserves and the size of those reserves determines how much credit they can create…..and a glut of international liquidity looking for a safe home and return knows which side their bread is buttered on.
Your talking about 'capital' not reserves there (especially in the context of overseas funding), and capital is still not a constraint on lending. It might place limits on the interest rates accessible in some cases.
But the simpler explanation is just that a lot of those recent house sellers at the time also took overseas trips.
Wrong …the amount of credit a bank can create is directly linked to their reserves and that capital can (and does) come from offshore…the interest rates are a consequence of the ability to service the level of debt (credit).
Still its, not a constraint on lending.
Of course it is…unless the bank wishes to breach its conditions of licence
The country didn't instigate a housing bubble based on money it borrowed overseas. That would be a very missleading claim, and I expect you would not claim it happened either. Yes, the implication is that the country can manufacture as much capital as it needs to facilitate lending for itself.
the glut of money sloshing around the world looks for a home and preferably a safe one with good access…..where better than backing the banks of open economies, ones with a political class wedded to the idea of free capital flows. The Banks use that increased reserve capacity to grow their loan books and thereby increase their profits, everybody wins,,,except for the poor mugs being milked for every available penny when they try and enter the housing market,
And the Gov is trapped because if they seriously try to do anything about housing affordability that capital in the banks reserves will find a new home …and probably not in NZ.
Capital outflow equals negative growth not to mention all the associated problems
I have no idea what this is going to achieve, but it's hard to fault the ambition. Pope Francis has just
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-council-for-inclusive-capitalism-with-the-vatican-a-new-alliance-of-global-business-leaders-launches-today-301187931.html
launched a partnership between the Vatican and some of the world’s largest companies, nonprofits and government agencies to reform capitalism.
The Council for Inclusive Capitalism with the Vatican is led by Guardians for Inclusive Capitalism, a group of officials representing such entities as the Bank of America, BP, Dupont, the Ford Foundation, Mastercard, Merck, the Rockefeller Foundation, Salesforce, Visa and the State of California.
Under the Pope’s guidance, these “guardians” aim to “reform capitalism into a powerful force for the good of humanity” and create a “more inclusive, sustainable and trusted form of capitalism.”
https://www.inclusivecapitalism.com/
Their mission is "to harness the private sector to create a more inclusive, sustainable and trusted economic system."
Just occasionally I wish Bruce Jesson and Christopher Hitchings were still alive to comment.
It's too weird for me to even try to comment yet.
Should have just called it FaustianPact.com
That's quite remarkable. From your second link:
What a lot of people here have missed is that many boardrooms across the US and EU have been quietly working toward all kinds of social and economic reforms. But because it's 'fucking capitalists' it never gets onto our radar.
It's a theme I'd have picked up on more – but every time I type the word 'capitalist' a kind of red mist descends. eg McF predictably above.
It's also not unreasonable to look at the Catholic Church's own historical approach to wealth management and go what the actual fuck.
Well history is tilting in ways never encountered before.
Basically we've tried three major economic variants – capitalism, communism and fascism – and of the three only the first has shown the necessary evolutionary capacity to adapt to the new world we're heading into.
It's all about the demographics. Young adults are consumers of goods and services, mid-aged adults are investors in capital and services, and retired adults are consumers of capital. At least in very broad terms.
For the first time in all of our history our populations are now quite rapidly becoming dominated by late adult to retired aged populations. Fully half of all Boomers will retire in 2022. Suddenly growth is no longer possible or even desirable. And none of the economic systems we've ever attempted have ever been exposed to this scenario – but I'd put my bet on capitalism being the one most likely to evolve to meet the challenge.
Could you perhaps explain the differences between these 'economic variants'? Particularly the economic differences between capitalism and fascism.
Thanks in advance.
The other day I found this amazing website …
Was Henry Ford fascist or capitalist? Or is it not an "or"?
He had a pretty good idea of the solution.https://www.financialexpress.com/auto/car-news/forget-electric-cars-henry-fords-cannabis-car-was-made-from-hemp-10xstronger-than-steel-100-green/1384733/ . I think he offered another way, one that may not have had us in our present situation.
I was asking you RL as you are perhaps the only person I've ever heard claim fascism is an economic system.
So please back up your statement with some facts or you're the one who needs that site you just found.
I see China are trying to join the TPP as is the UK. Does this mean that a large state actor like China or the UK could sue our government if we don't toe their line with regard to commercial companies. Given that a lot of chinese commercial investment seems to have some sort of state back up how exposed does this leave us?
I'm pretty confused but is it time that the existing TPP members rolled back a lot of the not actual trading and tariffs parts of the agreement so that the grouping is less attractive to major players. It all seems to reduce our ability both domestically and internationally? Should a trade agreement affect domestic politics that much?
https://www.interest.co.nz/news/109042/big-japanese-quake-china-targets-nz-over-tpp-application-us-sentiment-waivers-canada
https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/China-up-close/Analysis-A-new-Anglo-Japanese-alliance-threatens-China-s-TPP-plans
Dorklander here. Oh the evils of a lockdown. No warning and the bottle store closes. Have to sundown on a 15 year Chivas Regal rather than my ho hum teachers
NZ hellhole.
For the radio listeners among us.
This link is a big bad rabbit hole to follow, so don't say you weren't warned.
Essentially every little green dot is a radio station. Have fun.
http://radio.garden/
lol, fair warning!
Thanks Sabine – amazing.
Watercare does Watercare, again.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/contractors-accidentally-pour-2000-tonnes-of-cement-like-grout-into-auckland-water-main/SURUDLSTLBJU7BDNL4XWMEY52U/