Open mike 15/09/2022

22 comments on “Open mike 15/09/2022 ”

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1. PsyclingLeft.Always 1

   15 September 2022 at 7:48 am

   Switching to renewable energy could save trillions – study

   The data for fossil fuels goes from 2020 back more than 100 years and showed that after accounting for inflation, and market volatility, the price had not changed much.

   Renewables have only been around for a few decades, so there's less data. But in that time continual improvements in technology have meant the cost of solar and wind power have fallen rapidly, at a rate approaching 10 percent a year.

   https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/474737/switching-to-renewable-energy-could-save-trillions-study

   "Building these healthier homes and buildings will also create tens of thousands of jobs, ensuring there will be work for New Zealanders currently employed in fossil fuel industries, helping a just transition as the country moves away from industries such as oil, gas and coal," Eagles said.

   https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/474573/greener-homes-could-boost-economy-by-147bn-by-2050-report

   Our Future is NOW. Fossil fuel is becoming increasingly scarce (fossil fuel fuckwits can FUCK OFF with thinking Antarctica ! )…and the tragedy ongoing with Russian/Ukraine is stark evidence as to how vulnerable we ALL are to war and power/fuel disruption.

   There is never going to be a better time…than NOW. Just start….
   • Patricia Bremner 1.1

     15 September 2022 at 10:18 am

     Yes "just do it" pushing through the money and excuses of the oil lobby.
     • PsyclingLeft.Always 1.1.1

       15 September 2022 at 10:39 am

       Exactly Patricia. (and Im sorry to you for my expletives ?, but there is a level of frustration here )

       However, I really think getting to work right NOW would have so many Positives for NZ in particular. Future Proofing, Climate change recognition !, Innovative Skills development, Employment ! etc,….

       I honestly cant see any down side to this.
2. Poission 2

   15 September 2022 at 10:18 am

   Grant Robertson outlines issues with the macro economic position,both forward (an economic think big such as infrastructure debt) prior to the release of GDP figures today.

   We will need to face what the global economy is about to throw at us. We will be targeting our investments to where they will pay the greatest dividends.

   That means investing to take the pressure off and supporting households – by taking the pressure off and supporting businesses to grow jobs and lift wages.

   Because we know from COVID that these are the types investments that work.

   To protect our economy and provide economic security in good times and bad.

   https://www.beehive.govt.nz/speech/new-zealand-economy-%E2%80%93-case-optimism

   The phony war is over,as we need to spend on what makes a sustainable economy more efficient,and productive.
   • Patricia Bremner 2.1

     15 September 2022 at 11:09 am

     The phony war is over as we need to spend on what makes a sustainable economy more efficient and productive.

     I took this onboard from Robertson’s speech.

     "Protecting lives and livelihoods"

     "NZ has cause for optimism"

     "Forecasting is more art than science" (Well Treasury shows that!!)

     "We will build infrastructure homes and jobs using sustainable energy."

     "We will meet the turbulent times head on and plan for it to take opportunities"

     "We are nimble and prepared to change to meet challenges"

     Austerity and cuts are not the way to go, and we have supported 200 000 NZers into Trades or Apprenticeships, We will target the spend.

     Comon Luxe, match that!! Where’s your Plan????
     • Barfly 2.1.1

       15 September 2022 at 12:32 pm

       Tax cuts

       More roads

       Boot camps for young offenders

       Go National !

       /sarc
3. Ad 3

   15 September 2022 at 10:30 am

   Big shoutout to Silver Fern Farms and Scott Technology for committing huge investment to full automation of all Lamb carcass breakdowns. $13m high tech investment.

   One less high risk labour demand.

   Well done the 2 Dunedin-based firms.
   • bwaghorn 3.1

     15 September 2022 at 1:13 pm

     If you think it's about worker safety I have bridge you might be interested in😉
     • Ad 3.1.1

       15 September 2022 at 2:25 pm

       The de-risk is from skilled labour supply shortage.
       • Sabine 3.1.1.1

         15 September 2022 at 4:04 pm

         luckily there will be soon some unemployed people in that region clamoring for a job.
       • bwaghorn 3.1.1.2

         15 September 2022 at 6:25 pm

         Aargh right you are
4. Poission 4

   15 September 2022 at 10:59 am

   GDP came in at 1.7,higher then expected.The productive economy shrunk as the effects of covid reduced head counts,and fuel increases drove high prices in transport and warehousing to artificial highs.

   Health care etc showed a rise.

   https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/gross-domestic-product-june-2022-quarter/
   • Ad 4.1

     15 September 2022 at 11:23 am

     All that storm damage will help the next quarter GDP.

     Will we see growth even when house construction flattens? Will be a great hinge moment for us.
     • Poission 4.1.1

       15 September 2022 at 11:34 am

       The figures get somewhat distorted in manufacturing as Marsden point shut.

       Construction was down in those stats,mostly in civil and heavy construction,there will be a small bounce as builders try to finish ongoing work in progress.

       There needs to be some contraction further in housing to reduce costs,and supply constraints within our needs.
   • lprent 4.2

     15 September 2022 at 11:35 am

     Your interpretation doesn’t seem likely as the sole or even major cause for transport & warehousing variations.

     If you look at Table 3 in the spreadsheet it becomes a bit more obvious just how much effect the lock downs have had.

     March 2021 in Auckland we’d come out of lockdown. September we went back into one. It took out Jan / Feb. Jun Q this year and last year just happened to be when we didn’t have that many lockdowns.

     $ Millions
     Mar 2021 Q 2,376
     Jun 2021 Q 2,707
     Sep 2021 Q 2,590
     Dec 2021 Q 2,561
     Mar 2022 Q 2,505
     Jun 2022 Q 2,998

     There may be a fuel / cost /price effect this last quarter. But it isn’t apparent over the lock down noise. Transport etc gets major hits from lockdowns mostly because it limits access into and out of Auckland.
     • Poission 4.2.1

       15 September 2022 at 11:56 am

       Transport was down 20% 2021,increased 15% 2020 to date.Freight rates had also increased substantive prior to the remedy.The main drivers in the 1/4 are air transport,and transport support services such as warehousing,fuel.
       • lprent 4.2.1.1

         15 September 2022 at 8:11 pm

         I'd point out that internal and external air transport also markedly increased in volume when most of the lockdowns ceased in the June quarter. Consequently they massively increased in value in the GDP for that sector.

         You'd have to look at a measure of volume – something like air-km or km travelled to see if the price had increased.

         You have to look at it in the context of where it was as well and the natural variations without disruptions.

         So what was the steady state variations prior to covid-19 disruptions?https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/gross-domestic-product-june-2019-quarter/

         Table 3 Transport, postal and warehousing

         Mar-18 Q 2,813
         Jun-18 Q 2,848
         Sep-18 Q 2,854
         Dec-18 Q 2,942
         Mar-19 Q 2,979
         Jun-19 Q 3,032

         In this context Jun 2022 Q = 2,998 doesn't look out of place.

         Especially when you add in 3 years of monetary inflation, changes in the mix of services in the sectors, and changes in costs.

         But the lack of scale of variation in a pre-covid era compared to the covid era is a pretty striking indication that the June quarter to me simply indicates that the sector is most likely bouncing back to its pre-covid volumes with fewer lockdowns. Not that there is significant price or cost inflation in a few cost components of a wide sector.

         Using Occam, you'd need to show some volume evidence to indicate that it isn't just the economy returning to normal levels.
         • Poission 4.2.1.1.1

           15 September 2022 at 8:47 pm

           Better flows in the annual data,and remembering the march flows also include huge ag volumes .

           https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/transport-sales-increase-in-june-2022-quarter/
     • Poission 4.2.2

       15 September 2022 at 12:10 pm

       There is some distortion with the lockdowns red in 67 days march quarter vs 13 in june,which affected PP etc,limited in freight intercity.
5. joe90 5

   15 September 2022 at 11:22 am

   Trounced on the battlefield so cowardly Russia resorts to type and wages war on civilians and critical infrastructure.

   https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1570163710358065153

   The Russian army has used the Kh-22 missiles to conduct a strike against Ukrainian city of Kryvyi Rih as a result of which hydraulic structures had been damaged, reports head of the Dnipro region Valentin Reznichenko.

   “Massive missile strike against Kryvyi Rih. Russians dropped seven Kh-22 cruise missiles from aircraft of strategic aviation. They hit objects of critical and transport infrastructure. There’s been serious damage done to hydraulic structures. As of now, no victims have been reported,” he wrote in a post on his Telegram channel.

   According to Reznichenko, several districts of Kryvyi Rih were left without water following the attack. Currently, emergency services and crews are working on fixing the damage.

   The missile strikes have destroyed a dam, reports Ukraine’s broadcaster Suspilne, citing local citizens. Ukrainian news agency UNIAN and Telegram channel Ukraine Now both report that as a result the water level of the river Inhulets, Kherson region, has risen by two-three metres. Telegram channel Operativno ZSU claims that the water level has risen by five-six metres.

   https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2022/09/14/water-level-of-ukraines-river-inhulets-rises-after-russia-strikes-hydraulic-structures-of-kryvyi-rih-news
   • roblogic 5.1

     15 September 2022 at 2:38 pm

     There will be a long catalogue of Russian war crimes. It is just pure spite from Putin, who resents the fact that Ukrainians freely elected a democratic leader who isn't a puppet of the Kremlin
   • Peter 5.2

     15 September 2022 at 2:44 pm

     Imagine if Trump had been in power over the period. "We will give you weapons and help with sophisticated defence systems. Um….. but first find us some dirt on Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton and Nancy Pelosi and hunter Biden…"

     And Congress would have universally said what was happening was terrible, all those Ukrainian deaths, the threat to the world. Impeachment processes would have been mounted against that withholding of assistance and Congress would vote, (well one side) that Trump had done nothing wrong.

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