Several candidates around the South are either directly affiliated with, or have shared their support online for, the group Voices for Freedom.
But they have been urged to keep those links quiet.
In an August 9 email seen by the Otago Daily Times, Voices for Freedom co-founder Claire Deeks encouraged candidates not to disclose their affiliation with the group, which has also urged followers to make New Zealand "ungovernable".
Two high-profile VFF affiliates, Gill Booth and Jaspreet Boparai, were standing for the Teviot Valley Community Board, and the Southland District Council and Tuatapere Te Waewae Community Board respectively.
Clair… Deeks, and Friends. Extremely dodgy people. Spreaders of lies, Mis and Dis Information, and Conspiracy theories unlimited. "Potentially" if not actually dangerous. A worry with this latest. Always good exposing them .
Yes, good for voters to know who is who. There is a Sovereign NZ candidate standing for the Far North District Mayoralty–Joshua Riley from Opua–a pilot and small business person, and a right head case.
He opposes “race specific” i.e. Māori Wards, and the Three Waters reform. The Far North District has one of the highest Māori populations, proportionately in the country.
Naming these people right around the country is so important. There seems to a lot of apathy around local body elections and we need absolute vigilance.
Voters should be careful this election, not to choose fruit-loops and crack-pots.
They are out there, wearing their masks, nose-out, calling the Prime Minister, “Jabcinda” and screaming blue-murder over 3-Waters. Some have managed to get onto the candidate lists and will soon be campaigning for your vote. Ask questions of them; are they afraid of 5G cell-phone towers, do they believe Trump is honest, are they convinced the Gummint is trying to steal their farm?
Councils will be challenged by real issues over the next 3 years; adapting to climate change being the most pressing, in my opinion. Councillors with axes to grind, 3-legged hobby-horses to ride, will fail Southland voters and make a mockery of local government.
I’ve put my name forward again for Environment Southland. I’ve been on that council for 3 terms now, and reckon I’ve done a good job speaking up for the environment.
I have a fb friend ,staunch Maori guy , loves trump ,thinks trump is honest, misogynist asf, hates national and act , votes labour , some people are complicated
Imo, its incumbent upon journalists around the country to seek out these imposters (because that is what most of them are) and publish their names.
People are inclined to vote for name recognition in local body elections because they have no idea who any of them are, and they have no inclination to spend time finding out. This is what the VFF crowd are banking on to get their people across the line.
Yes Anne, name recognition plays a big role. In the Far North where I have been for 30 years, a perennial issue is that Mayoral candidates may be well known in Kerikeri or Kaitaia or Kaikohe or Te Hapua or Hokianga or Doubtless Bay–but not over the whole district–which is why Wayne Brown got in for two terms because he had branding based on his years of property development activity and crawling within the business and farming sector.
The Anti vaccination, Groundswell, Convoy, 5G and other nut job lots go under various banners so do need to be identified.
Mackie says the largest (and most well-resourced) anti-vaccine group in New Zealand, the female-led Voices For Freedom, deliberately set out to target mums more than a year ago
Hi Anne, Ive posted the above Link before….but it still disturbs me. That these "Mumfluencers" cannot see who is actually behind their conspiracy theories and fear mongering.
But yes, Journalist exposure could hopefully throw bright light on the shadowy leaders.
Carter was sacked as whip in 1995, after he phoned into a talkback radio show, hosted by fellow National MP John Banks impersonating a work-shy Maori called Hone, causing widespread offence.
This is pretty much a direct copy-paste from the MAGA playbook, where schools, councils, you name it – have MAGA's lining up to get on the inside.
A deliberate malicious undermining of society because they fear a swarm of communist pronouns and IRS officers are coming for their guns. Here they have different victim fantasies, but it's the same nonsensensical shite.
The people directing such activities are enemies of democracy, period. But we already see MP's talk utter shit to get in. Shoe – other foot!
The rhetoric coming from US is murderous right now. Or should I say murder fantasy. Where the righteous emerge from a storm cloud to purge the land of evil.
Really twisted.
Now, let's see if my and others posts on the subject attract lightly veiled threats from a certain poster, again…
The fascinating thing is that they've succeeded in getting their people to put their hand up for local government, in significant numbers!
It takes a lot to motivate people.
Some, for example those standing for community boards, will get a shock if they find themselves sitting around those tables, committed to 3 years of debating footpaths ands street lights – I guess they can try to rid their communities of 5G towers and get their little town taken off the chem-trail routes.
Robert, that's what I don't get too – how they are going to cope with all the meetings, reading, travel around the electorate, responding to and resolving individuals concerns/problems etc etc.
Maybe the initial flurry of Meet Your Candidates meetings will see them drop out.
I live in a very large, rural ward and the workload is gruelling for our sole Councillor. We have four candidates – at least one has suspect affiliations.
Matiri – indeed; I just can't see what they hope to achieve, but that could just be my lack of understanding; people who profess to despise democracy, signing-up to the strictest of democratic institutions? Their plan must be to get inside and bring it down, but how, I wonder, do they propose to do that?? If their plans are anything like the plans they had for getting an audience with the Government, then I they're going to be sorely disappointed. Otoh, going along to community board meetings; usually as dry as toast, could be an entertainment and I'm certainly going to be there, popcorn in hand! Our local board has a gaggle lining up. It seems there are far more than "we" might suspect.
Edit: it’s just occurred to me that their plan might be to not go to meetings at all, meaning there’s not enough for a quorum, and meetings will fail accordingly 🙂
I was suggesting Mr Arps seemed unlikely to want to attend his school board meetings (if elected). Doesn't seem clear what hes going to change when hes busy agreeing dates for the school fare to be run and deciding if the fees (voluntary donations) should be increased or terminated this year.
Also interesting that he's apparently sending kids to a multi-cultural school to begin with of course. Maybe hes one of those very well adjusted people who keeps his work separate to his family life and this never comes up.
If there is a plan to shut down school boards by not attending meetings I expect it to be activated at a later date and that the candidates haven't been told about it yet. Also the boards will just get one of the unsuccessful candidates co-opted onto the school board at that point anyway, or arm twist somebody to step in (which they do when not enough parents stand anyway).
I don't think there's a solid plan – I think the anti-vaxx candidates just want to put the willies up the "sheeple" and prance. As they did on Parliament's lawn. They won't be aware of deeper machinations, just as they weren't aware on the protest lawn.
If the plan is not to go to meetings so that the meeting fails, he/she will be very very unpopular in our ward if successful, as we rely on our sole councillor to represent us. Life will be very uncomfortable for him/her!!
I don't think running for office is yet in and of itself undermining society. People you (or I) don't like are able to run for office, that's a strength of democracy not a weakness IMO.
Agreed, Nic; great to see them all turn out with their hands up. Disturbing though, to read that their "controlling agency" has advised them to hide their affiliations and intentions from the public. That's kinda whiffy!
Deeply ironic that a bunch of loonies who think the government is sneaky and dishonest, themselves are willing to be sneaky and dishonest to get into power, guess they must think they're allo allo voices please) le resistance
Not in the south but we have locally at least one candidate that is very much trying to say 'affiliated with such and such party' but not naming it.
I have complained about that to local government that including party membership/alliances should be part of the intro of the dudes/ettes standing and we were told that that was no important.
That was for the last election which was before that brouhaha broke out.
So in essence you will not be allowed that information for anyone irrespective the party that they would promote/vote for.
Jaspreet Boparai returns with Gill Booth to summarise with Claire Deeks what they’ve been talking about for the past year on the Be Kind Be Blind series and find a focus on a way forward which all concerned kiwis can take when it comes to stopping the UN Agenda playing out in our local councils.
joe90, hmmm I already know of their extremist views. I might pass on viewing that clip. (even at the beginning, i could feel the attack on my rationality : )
I'm not sure they have any extremist views of their own. I reckon they're bored, resentful, and after so many trips down the damn rabbit hole, delusional nobodies who finally have something to latch onto, the UN Agenda playing out in our local councils, purpose. Egged on by the cowardly well heeled fucks who instigate and inflame the nonsense from the safety and comfort of their own living rooms, home studios, cordons of minders in dirty dogs and, as in Wellington, the best hotel rooms in the town.
And there doesn't seem to be any one thing in particular that unites these dangerous loons in their campaign to upend the lives of their fellow New Zealanders. They say that they're all about liberty and freedom but I think these are catch-all excuses for their grab bag of grudges, grievances, resentments, and their apparent paranoia aboutthe dark, amorphous forcesthey perceive to beresponsible for their shitty, boring lives.
There is always something to get politics followers attention–and the latest for me is the Labour Caucus embracing the US Pacific “charm offensive” (charming in public anyway–75 years ago…WWII…sob…etc.) and behind the scenes cuddling up via various US State Department personnel visits, including recently Deputy Secretary Wendy Sherman, and signing a ‘space agreement’ fer crissakes, which really just recognises and approves the increased US military use of Rocketlab.
Toadying up to US Imperialism is never a good look–how far away can actual AUKUS membership be?–this is shameful for a country with Nuclear Free Legislation.
Well we must hope then that L will do its utmost best to prevent what ever they are creating re Water and other utilities to be not misused for privatisation by other parties.
I mean after all they are doing all the 'reforming' atm. Surely safeguarding and safekeeping of these assets in the commons will be a big aspect of it.
National refused to discuss the Privatisation model of proposed 3 Waters, saying instead that they would cancel 3 Waters so privatisation would be irrelevant. Ha Ha!
It's meaningless. Future governments can simply change the law. The greatest protection against privatisation would be to reverse the 3Waters reforms altogether.
Let some National government long after my death find itself facing a public backlash of unprecedented severity for trying to pass legislation allowing it to steal our country's water.
Is the clause that entrenches the anti-privatisation clause also entrenched? i.e. can the entrenchment itself be removed with a simple majority? Genuine question – I'm not sure how this stuff works.
The argument you were making was actually if something doesn't exist it can't be privatized. So I expect your about to explain how the country should function doing away with its water infrastructure (rather than privatizing it, or relying on the government not to). So do go ahead…
3Waters creates a monolithic, nationwide, water services organisation. For all intents and purposes it ends Council control over those assets, and transfers control to that entity, which is in effect a monopoly. My view is that is a far more attractive beast for privatisation that a series of truly locally controlled and owned water services enterprises.
I view 3Waters as a strange animal. It seems to be a solution well wide of the problem, but that's a different discussion. It is far being a safeguard against privatisation.
NZ doesn't have an overriding constitutional system. The only possible protection is not to have a privatising govt in office. A 75% vote against privatisation would be stronger but even this govt doesn't have such a majority.
On the other hand LibertyBelle's argument that govts can change laws is not in good faith. They have several arguments at the same time as you can see. Apparently their best argument, presented at the dregs of a thread for the first time naturally, is that having national framework for water makes it a monopoly. Water is a natural monopoly regardless of the legislation.
But your looking for some stronger proofing than legislation inside a legislative system. Good luck.
"Water is a natural monopoly regardless of the legislation."
The issue is not whether 'water' is a monopoly, the issue is whether the delivery of water services is a monopoly. 3Waters creates such a monopoly at a national level, which makes it an attractive proposition for sale.
The country can function without the 3Waters reforms quite well. And with smaller water providers, the likelihood of privatisation would be significantly reduced.
Weirdly Maori corporates gaining 50% of the water entities start to look a lot more reliable than Parliament as a defence of sovereign ownership here.
Imagine if Maori had owned 50% of Contact, Genesis, or Mighty River Power (as it was). Then Key tried to sell them (as he did). He would have Supreme Court rulings at him left right and centre.
The 75% threshold is the Parliamentary limit. But they forgot the first 50% Maori limit.
With Maori at the table from the beginning, it would be very hard to see these new entities bringing in Vivendi and RWE to 'privatise-by-stealth' as Papakura Council did in the early 2000s.
Maori ‘sell’ assets they obtain for gain and good on them. For example ex Crown land in Auckland offered to mana whenua under RFR clauses in the Tamaki Collective.
Six provisions in New Zealand law are constitutionally entrenched, meaning they can only be changed by a vote of more than 75% of the House of Representatives or more than 50% at a referendum. They are contained in the Electoral Act 1993 (and one in the Constitution Act 1986) and relate to:
the term of Parliament
the Representation Commission (a committee that determines electoral boundaries)
the division of New Zealand into general electorates
the 5% margin for the population of general electorates
Except that it gets way way way harder to get a 75% vote from MPs than it does to get a 50% vote.
Perhaps you should have a look at how few times a 75% vote is achieved on any legislation in our parliament.
Usually it is only on repair legislation, treaties, MP pensions, and the few bits of legislation enabling referendums, and …. thats about it.
It requires a super majority by both major parties before it can happen in reality. As you can see from the examples given – we really only get entrenched legislation on things of common interest to both major political groups.
Of course it's 'way harder'. But it isn't impossible. The combined value of the water services companies will be huge, and a very tempting proposition for raising money, particularly to pay off debt.
"So, now you change your tune from twice “future governments can simply change the law” [my italics] to “Of course it’s ‘way harder’”."
You have difficulty with comprehension. The word simply doesn't always mean something is simple, does it? Here's an example – 'if someone continues to ignore you, you can simple ignore them'. Get it now?
Yes, I get that you like to waste good people’s time here and that you’re pretty good at it too. As a Moderator I’m always concerned about obtuse commenters who monopolise the discourse here and who clearly show no sign of letting up. Let’s see if your reading comprehension is up to it and if you can parse this.
PS to write “… you can simple ignore them” is not cute. Perhaps you could pay more attention to what others are saying instead of ignoring them and/or fobbing them off. And believe me, I won’t ignore you.
My understanding is that in order to entrench a clause to say 75% vote in order to ensure its longevity, that 75% must vote for it. Labour would need National approval and its vote to achieve that.
”Even a small conflict in which two nations unleash nuclear weapons on each other could lead to worldwide famine, research suggests. Soot from burning cities would encircle the planet and cool it by reflecting sunlight back into space. This, in turn, would cause global crop failures that — in a worst-case scenario — could put five billion people on the brink of death. The research is the latest in a decades-long thought experiment about the global consequences of nuclear war. It seems especially relevant today as Russia’s war against Ukraine has disrupted global food supplies, underscoring the far-reaching impacts of a regional conflict. “
This is the same Toby Curtis that expressed disappointment that his nephews were found guilty of murdering Nia Glassie rather than being found guilty of the lesser charge of manslaughter.
This is the same Toy Curtis who spoke about the shame the Curtis family would have to endure as they visited marae around the rohe. Yes….he did give the impression that it was an untoward burden of shame…rather than one richly deserved.
This is the same Toby Curtis, who described the murder of Nia Glassie as "…just one of those things."
I vividly remember this particular interview I have involuntarily snorted every time in the past 14 years he has been introduced as 'Highly respected Te Arawa kaumatua.'
sits there and lets Luxon pontificate about how they, the principled party, believe voters should choose the MPs, when his party is currently in the middle of a scandal where they kept information from voters so they could not choose properly on full information.
A pre-selection committee shall be convened in all Electorates at the closing of nominations, subject to Rule 97 (a).
(b) The purpose of the pre-selection committee is to:
(i) Conduct in depth interviews and reference checks with the approved nominees;
(ii) In the event that there are more than five approved nominees, then to reduce the number of nominees to five (including the sitting National Member of Parliament if approved as a nominee by the Board); and
(iii) Exclude from further consideration in the selection process those nominees who are considered unsuitable to be National Members of Parliament
So, Luxon believes voters should choose the MPs? Who chooses the candidates?
Agree with you newsense, the conflating of the Waka jumping law by Luxon with “National supports letting the voters choose MP's" was never challenged by Corin Dann either. Kim Hill would have though.
I know poor old Luxy had a tough interview with Susie a week or two back, but given the background of these couple of weeks and couple of years of candidate selection it’s worse than softball.
Quite clear the selection team knew about Uffindell and thought he was fine. Why?
Labour on current polling even to get a shot at government needs the Greens to be stronger, the Maori Party to be stronger, and any other help.
So presumably now if Ardern really wants power in a third term, she has some deals to stitch:
– Labour agrees not to oppose Gaurav Sharma in Hamilton West, and he agrees to support Labour in the party vote. Or Labour just agrees to let his LEC select him.
– Labour agrees not to oppose Chloe Swarbrick in Auckland Central
– Labour agrees not to stand Tamati Coffey against Rawiri Waititi
– Labour agrees not to stand a candidate in Te Tai Hauaru against Debbie Ngarewa-Packer
As the polls get deeper the list will need to be added to.
Of course it is the electorate vote that elects individuals in electorates but it is the percentage party vote that dictates the number of MP's per each party ends up with, assuming a party gets at least 5% or has one or more electorate seat.
More than a crack, there was a line of thinking that Dr Sharma kicked the whole thing off after noting that Hamilton West was very likely going back to the National candidate next time.
that's a big cultural shift for a party that prides itself on standing someone in every electorate, and which has eschewed such strategy in the past. Do you think it's likely?
Think Sharma is unlikely, as he doesn't have a realistic chance of winning against National, especially without the Labour machine behind him.
Definitely worth considering the other two scenarios, to benefit TPM and Greens. Although Labour has always firmly rejected this kind of accommodation in the recent past.
And would have to put those candidates not standing in a very winnable place on the party list (which might be a tense negotiation – especially with Helen White in Ak Central), or parachute them into a post-parliamentary career (cf Louisa Wall)
The way the polls are ATM, the Greens don't need the accommodation in Ak Central – they have sufficient polling support to get into parliament, independently.
TPM require an electorate seat, unless they hit the 5% threshold (which seems unlikely at the moment). I don't know enough about the personalities and the politics in the individual Maori electorates, to know if TPM candidate is already the front-runner – so whether a Labour concession is worth-while for them.
Christopher Luxon's Preferred Prime Minister results continue their slide. Mr Luxon was on 28% in June is now on just 19.5% today. Jacinda Ardern is at 39.5%.
…overall gain for the Labour/Green centre-left parties at the expense of the National/ACT centre-right bloc.
Doubt it. All polls have been keenly addressed to date – and the media have regularly led with TPM holding the 'balance of power'.
Suspect it's just that Sharma has sucked all the political oxygen over the last few days, as Uffindell did previously.
As this seems to be dying down now, I'd expect regular transmission to resume.
My $0.02 worth: I think all polls with a difference of less than 3% are within the margin of error, and too close to call (been saying this consistently for months)
Doesn't suit their agreed agenda BG? Now if it had been the other way round… Luxon was soaring and Arderrn plummeting then it would have knocked the Sharma drama, and the Uffindell upset completely off the news circuit. It may even have forced the raging torrents of water flooding villages and towns in the Sth. Island into second place. 👿
Media have frequently reported these polls (both with Labour ahead and with National ahead, as well as with TMP holding the balance of power – as they do in this one).
To ascribe this as not being reported, because it doesn't fit an 'agenda' is pretty far gone along the conspiracy theory path.
And, indeed, a quick search of the news headlines finds an article in the Herald, released at 11:18 this morning.
Google searches are tailored to each individual user, i.e., your ‘hits’ will be (slightly?) different from anybody else’s ‘hits’. It also depends on whether one limits to NZ only or all countries, for example. That said, the NZH is also the first result (“20 hours ago”) of my search using Google.
Yeah, I know that Google relevance rankings use an arcane art to weigh results. But working on the assumption that commenters here are both interested in politcs and in NZ – you're pretty likely to get the same results for a political search.
Bollocks Belladonna. I know you have a high opinion of your abilities, but many of us here are experienced and politically very aware. Being lectured by you about some aspects that we have known for years might be amusing, but is not always a pathway to good conversations.
Bearded Git @ 9.1 knows I was being facetious with a tinge of humour thrown in. TS regulars are well versed in such banter. Suggest you read and learn before leaping in with your criticism. It only lead to equally negative responses.
Many of the commenters on TS are, indeed, highly experienced and politically very aware.
Poorly informed claims that the media are biased, however, aren't either funny or clever. And, in fact, they are dangerous…. (if you can't figure out why, I'm happy to discuss further)
Using emoticons or emojis doesn't excuse you from mis-representing the facts. Although it might pay to stick to ones where you're certain of the meaning, and equally certain it won't be misunderstood.
The occasional apology – when you get something wrong – wouldn't exactly go amiss. Doubling down, when you're called on something, also 'leads to negative responses'
* Luxon still against waka jumping legislation amid Uffindell inquiry
* Sharma remains under threat of expulsion (really a re-hash of the day before, for those who get their news in the morning)
Seems a fairly balanced list of topics: both right and left getting some airtime, and a big government-initiated investigation into a topic of significance.
Left & Right blocs essentially neck-and-neck … TPM holding balance.
Luxon's initial fall in popularity didn't affect National's ratings, now it's beginning to.
While NZF is only rating 2.6%, Winston almost doubles his personal popularity to 4.2% … suggesting a pool of voters who are currently unsure of their party support but prefer Winnie as PM (possibly indicating some latent NZF support that may manifest over the next year).
"…a pool of voters who are currently unsure of their party support but prefer Winnie as PM (possibly indicating…") their complete detachment from reality?
Peters is still well below Seymour in preferred PM league.
I think we can all agree that the rats-and-mice numbers at the bottom are just about name recognition in those surveyed, rather than signifying any real support. Especially as those indicating they would vote for NZF remain around 2.5% (as they have all year) well shy of the 5% threshold.
Ardern and Luxon are the only ones that matter here.
Ardern will be hoping that the uptick in popular support for her, personally, will spill over into Labour votes, too.
Peters is still well below Seymour in preferred PM league.
Irrelevant to the question of whether or not the doubling of his personal rating (making it almost twice as high as current committed NZF supporters) indicates a latent potential pool of support for NZF.
..
Especially as those indicating they would vote for NZF remain around 2.5% (as they have all year)
Nope … NZF support in Curia-Taxpayers Polls (2022):
Jan 0.9 … Feb 1.5 … March 1.8 … April 1.7 … May 1.8 … June 2.3 … July 2.8 … Aug 2.6.
..
well shy of the 5% threshold
NZF has made a bit of a habit of outperforming the polls. Not in 2020 … but certainly in election campaigns where Labour's support is down on the previous election (NZF outperforming both in terms of the immediate pre-election polls and, even more so, the polls more than a year out … which is where we are at the moment).
..
Ardern will be hoping that the uptick in popular support for her, personally, will spill over into Labour votes, too.
Ardern is down slightly in this latest Curia-Taxpayers Poll.
Re Peters. I don't think that doubling support, when the figures are so low, is really meaningful. It would be well within the margin of error.
Poll results at the margins (below about 3%) are notoriously inaccurate.
NZF made a habit of outperforming polls when voters believed that Peters would go with the larger party, and be a handbrake on them. After 2017, I don't think that many voters would trust him to do that.
Future polls will show if you're right. If there's an upward trend for NZF – then, you have my concession in advance. 🙂
However, I do think that many people (those who aren't firm party voters), tend to select the 'person' they like for the leader category, but are generally more influenced by policies (or what's going right or wrong for them in an economic/political sense) when deciding which 'party' to vote for.
[That's just my opinion, BTW, I don't have anything from polling companies to back it up]
What is the poll’s margin of error?
The maximum sampling error is approximately ± 3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. This is the sampling error for a result around 50%. Results higher and lower than 50% have a smaller sampling error. For example, results around 10% and 5% have sampling errors of approximately ±1.9%-points and 1.4%-points respectively at the 95% confidence level.
This is an older article, but I think it does articulate well, why small percentage point differences in poll results aren't particularly accurate or useful.
It does use American examples – but AFAIK NZ polling uses the same statistical sampling methodology.
There is a tendency in the media and elsewhere to look at a 1% percentage change as 'real news', when actually it's within the margin of error, and may simply be statistical 'noise'
I still believe National will replace Luxon before the election. They would be crazy not to. Every Wednesday morning is Jacinda's birthday. An election campaign is non-stop Wednesday mornings.
See the preferred PM polling from 2005 to 2008. Luxon is Brash, not Key. Why try and win with a self-imposed handicap?
I don't know if they have a Key, or an Ardern – maybe Willis would be the closest. But Luxon definitely isn't, that comparison has never made any sense.
So anyway … National caucus, please ignore the above. Luxon's the man!
Willis is smart enough – but not long on charisma. This is also Luxon's weakness. Key could fake a bit of bonhomie, but the only Gnat with any charisma at all is Bishop, whose intellect, sadly, always makes us recall the opening lines of this song.
I don't think Luxon is at all secure, though there is no obvious successor – and National will be very wary of any further instability (the post-Bridges history is a dreadful warning….)
I think that the next poll or two will be critical. If the National vote stabilizes or rises – they won't really care about Luxon's personal popularity, too much.
And a cunning TPU question heading with:"Most Voters want the Government to cut taxes."
"As part of this month's poll, our polsters asked voters whether they support a temporary 10% reduction in overall income tax for all families to help with the increased cost of living. 59% said yes."
Personally i am not for tax cuts at the upper end of income. I would prefer the first 10 – 25 grand to be made tax free as that would support low income workers, pensioneers and beneficiaries most as they would fall into this group.
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Up until now, the prevailing coalition view of public servants was that there were simply too many of them. But yesterday the new Public Service Commissioner, handpicked by the Luxon Government, said it was not so much numbers but what they did and the value they produced that mattered. Sir ...
In a moment we explore the question: What is Andrew Bayly wanting to tell ACC, and will it involve enjoying a small wine tasting and then telling someone to fuck off? But first, for context, a broader one: What do we look for in a government?Imagine for a moment, you ...
As expected, Donald Trump just threw Ukraine under the bus, demanding that it accept Russia's illegal theft of land, while ruling out any future membership of NATO. Its a colossal betrayal, which effectively legitimises Russia's invasion, while laying the groundwork for the next one. But Trump is apparently fine with ...
This is a guest post by George Weeks, reviewing a book called ‘How to Fly a Horse’ by Kevin AshtonBook review: ‘How to Fly a Horse’ by Kevin Ashton (2015) – and what it means for Auckland. The title of this article might unnerve any Greater Auckland ...
This story was originally published by Capital & Main and is part of Covering Climate Now, a global journalism collaboration strengthening coverage of the climate story. Within just a week, the sheer devastation of the Los Angeles wildfires has pushed to the fore fundamental questions about the impact of the climate crisis that have been ...
In this world, it's just usYou know it's not the same as it wasSongwriters: Harry Edward Styles / Thomas Edward Percy Hull / Tyler Sam JohnsonYesterday, I received a lovely message from Caty, a reader of Nick’s Kōrero, that got me thinking. So I thought I’d share it with you, ...
In past times a person was considered “unserious” or “not a serious” person if they failed to grasp, behave and speak according to the solemnity of the context in which they were located. For example a serious person does not audibly pass gas at Church, or yell “gun” at a ...
Long stories short, the top six things in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Thursday, February 13 are:The coalition Government’s early 2024 ‘fiscal emergency’ freeze on funding, planning and building houses, schools, local roads and hospitals helped extend and deepen the economic and jobs recession through calendar ...
For obvious reasons, people feel uneasy when the right to be a citizen is sold off to wealthy foreigners. Even selling the right to residency seems a bit dubious, when so many migrants who are not millionaires get turned away or are made to jump through innumerable hoops – simply ...
A new season of White Lotus is nearly upon us: more murder mystery, more sumptuous surroundings, more rich people behaving badly.Once more we get to identify with the experience of the pampered tourist or perhaps the poorly paid help; there's something in White Lotus for all New Zealanders.And unlike the ...
In 2016, Aotearoa shockingly plunged to fourth place in the Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index. Nine years later, and we're back there again: New Zealand has seen a further slip in its global ranking in the latest Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI). [...] In the latest CPI New Zealand's score ...
1. You’ve started ranking your politicians on how much they respect the rule of law2. You’ve stopped paying attention to those news publications3. You’ve developed a sudden interest in a particular period of history4. More and more people are sounding like your racist, conspiracist uncle.5. Someone just pulled a Nazi ...
Transforming New Zealand: Brian EastonBrian Easton will discuss the above topic at 2/57 Willis Street, Wellington at 5:30pm on Tuesday 26 February at 2/57 Willis Street, WellingtonThe sub-title to the above is "Why is the Left failing?" Brian Easton's analysis is based on his view that while the ...
Salvation Army’s State of the Nation 2025 report highlights falling living standards, the highest unemployment rates since the 1990s and half of all Pacific children going without food. There are reports of hundreds if not thousands of people are applying for the same jobs in the wake of last year’s ...
Mountain Tui is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Correction: On the article The Condundrum of David Seymour, Luke Malpass conducted joint reviews with Bryce Wilkinson, the architect of the Regulatory Standards Bill - not Bryce Edwards. The article ...
Tomorrow the council’s Transport, Resilience and Infrastructure Committee meet and agenda has a few interesting papers. Council’s Letter of Expectation to Auckland Transport Every year the council provide a Letter of Expectation to Auckland Transport which is part of the process for informing AT of the council’s priorities and ...
All around in my home townThey're trying to track me down, yeahThey say they want to bring me in guiltyFor the killing of a deputyFor the life of a deputySongwriter: Robert Nesta Marley.Support Nick’s Kōrero today with a 20% discount on a paid subscription to receive all my newsletters directly ...
Hi,I think all of us have probably experienced the power of music — that strange, transformative thing that gets under our skin and helps us experience this whole life thing with some kind of sanity.Listening and experiencing music has always been such a huge part of my life, and has ...
Business frustration over the stalled economy is growing, and only 34% of voters are confidentNicola Willis can deliver. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāLong stories short, the top six things in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Wednesday, February 12 are:Business frustration is growing about a ...
I have now lived long enough to see a cabinet minister go both barrels on their Prime Minister and not get sacked.It used to be that the PM would have a drawer full of resignations signed by ministers on the day of their appointment, ready for such an occasion. But ...
This session will feature Simon McCallum, Senior Lecturer in Engineering and Computer Science (VUW) and recent Labour Party candidate in the Southland Electorate talking about some of the issues around AI and how this should inform Labour Party policy. Simon is an excellent speaker with a comprehensive command of AI ...
The proposed Waimate garbage incinerator is dead: The company behind a highly-controversial proposal to build a waste-to-energy plant in the Waimate District no longer has the land. [...] However, SIRRL director Paul Taylor said the sales and purchase agreement to purchase land from Murphy Farms, near Glenavy, lapsed at ...
The US Foreign Corrupt Practices Act has been a vital tool in combatting international corruption. It forbids US companies and citizens from bribing foreign public officials anywhere in the world. And its actually enforced: some of the world's biggest companies - Siemens, Hewlett Packard, and Bristol Myers Squibb - have ...
December 2024 photo - with UK Tory Boris Johnson (Source: Facebook)Those PollsFor hours, political poll results have resounded across political hallways and commentary.According to the 1News Verizon poll, 50% of the country believe we are heading in the “wrong direction”, while 39% believe we are “on the right track”.The left ...
A Tai Rāwhiti mill that ran for 30 years before it was shut down in late 2023 is set to re-open in the coming months, which will eventually see nearly 300 new jobs in the region. A new report from Massey University shows that pensioners are struggling with rising costs. ...
As support continues to fall, Luxon also now faces his biggest internal ructions within the coalition since the election, with David Seymour reacting badly to being criticised by the PM. File photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāLong stories short, the top six things in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate ...
Not since 1988 when Richard Prebble openly criticised David Lange have we seen such a challenge to a Prime Minister as that of David Seymour to Christopher Luxon last night. Prebble suggested Lange had mental health issues during a TV interview and was almost immediately fired. Seymour hasn’t gone quite ...
Three weeks in, and the 24/7 news cycle is not helping anyone feel calm and informed about the second Trump presidency. One day, the US is threatening 25% trade tariffs on its friends and neighbours. The reasons offered by the White House are absurd, such as stopping fentanyl coming in ...
This video includes personal musings and conclusions of the creator climate scientist Dr. Adam Levy. It is presented to our readers as an informed perspective. Please see video description for references (if any). Wherever you look, you'll hear headlines claiming we've passed 1.5 degrees of global warming. And while 2024 saw ...
Photo by Heather M. Edwards on UnsplashHere’s the key news, commentary, reports and debate around Aotearoa’s politics and economy in the week to Feb 10 below. That’s ahead of live chats on the Substack App and The Kākā’s front page on Substack at 5pm with: on his column in The ...
Is there anyone in the world the National Party loves more than a campaign donor? Why yes, there is! They will always have the warmest hello and would you like to slip into something more comfortable for that great god of our age, the High Net Worth Individual.The words the ...
Waste and fraud certainly exist in foreign aid programs, but rightwing celebration of USAID’s dismantling shows profound ignorance of the value of soft power (as opposed to hard power) in projecting US influence and interests abroad by non-military/coercive means (think of “hearts and minds,” “hugs, not bullets,” “honey versus vinegar,” ...
Health New Zealand is proposing to cut almost half of its data and digital positions – more than 1000 of them. The PSA has called on the Privacy Commissioner to urgently investigate the cuts due to the potential for serious consequences for patients. NZNO is calling for an urgent increase ...
We may see a few more luxury cars on Queen Street, but a loosening of rules to entice rich foreigners to invest more here is unlikely to “turbocharge our economic growth”. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāLong stories short, the top six things in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate ...
Let us not dance daintily around the elephant in the room. Our politicians who serve us in the present are not honest, certainly not as honest as they should be, and while the right are taking out most of the trophies for warping narratives and literally redefining “facts”, the kiwi ...
A few weeks ago I took a look at public transport ridership in 2024. In today’s post I’m going to be looking a bit deeper at bus ridership. Buses make up the vast majority of ridership in Auckland with 70 million boardings last year out of a total of 89.4 ...
Oh, you know I did itIt's over and I feel fineNothing you could say is gonna change my mindWaited and I waited the longest nightNothing like the taste of sweet declineSongwriters: Chris Shiflett / David Eric Grohl / Nate Mendel / Taylor Hawkins.Hindsight is good, eh?The clarity when the pieces ...
Photo by Towfiqu barbhuiya on UnsplashHere’s what we’re watching in the week to February 16 and beyond in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty:Monday, February 10The Kākā’s weekly wrap-up of news about politics and the economy is due at midday, followed by webinar for paying subscribers in Substack’s ...
A listing of 23 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, February 2, 2025 thru Sat, February 8, 2025. This week's roundup is again published soleley by category. We are still interested in feedback to hone the categorization, so if ...
Today, I stumbled across a Twitter Meme: the ending of The Lord of the Rings as a Chess scenario: https://x.com/mellon_heads/status/1887983845917564991 It gets across the basic gist. Aragorn and Gandalf offering up ‘material’ at the Morannon allows Frodo and Samwise to catch Sauron unawares – fair enough. But there are a ...
Last week, Kieran McAnulty called out Chris Bishop and Nicola Willis for their claims that Kāinga Ora’s costs were too high.They had claimed Kāinga Ora’s cost were 12% higher than market i.e. private devlopersBut Kāinga Ora’s Chair had already explained why last year:"We're not building to sell, so we'll be ...
Stuff’s Political Editor Luke Malpass - A Fellow at New Zealand IniativeLast week I half-joked that Stuff / The Post’s Luke Malpass1 always sounded like he was auditioning for a job at the New Zealand Initiative.Mountain Tui is a reader-supported publication. For a limited time, subscriptions are 20% off. Thanks ...
At a funeral on Friday, there were A4-sized photos covering every wall of the Dil’s reception lounge. There must have been 200 of them, telling the story in the usual way of the video reel but also, by enlargement, making it more possible to linger and step in.Our friend Nicky ...
Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. This fact brief was written by Sue Bin Park from the Gigafact team in collaboration with members from our team. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline. Is methane the ...
The Government’s idea is that the private sector and Community Housing Providers will fund, build and operate new affordable housing to address our housing crisis. Meanwhile, the Government does not know where almost half of the 1,700 children who left emergency housing actually went. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāLong ...
Oh, home, let me come homeHome is wherever I'm with youOh, home, let me come homeHome is wherever I'm with youSongwriters: Alexander Ebert / Jade Allyson CastrinosMorena,I’m on a tight time frame this morning. In about an hour and a half, I’ll need to pack up and hit the road ...
This is a post about the Mountain Tui substack, and small tweaks - further to the poll and request post the other day. Please don’t read if you aren’t interested in my personal matters. Thank you all.After oohing-and-aahing about how to structure the Substack model since November, including obtaining ...
This transcript of a recent conversation between the Prime Minister and his chief economic adviser has not been verified.We’ve announced we are the ‘Yes Government’. Do you like it?Yes, Prime Minister.Dreamed up by the PR team. It’s about being committed to growth. Not that the PR team know anything about ...
The other day, Australian Senator Nick McKim issued a warning in the Australian Parliement about the US’s descent into fascim.And of course it’s true, but I lament - that was true as soon as Trump won.What we see is now simply the reification of the intention, planning, and forces behind ...
Among the many other problems associated with Musk/DOGE sending a fleet of teenage and twenty-something cultists to remove, copy and appropriate federal records like social security, medicaid and other supposedly protected data is the fact that the youngsters doing the data-removal, copying and security protocol and filter code over-writing have ...
Jokerman dance to the nightingale tuneBird fly high by the light of the moonOh, oh, oh, JokermanSong by Bob Dylan.Morena folks, I hope this fine morning of the 7th of February finds you well. We're still close to Paihia, just a short drive out of town. Below is the view ...
It’s been an eventful week as always, so here’s a few things that we have found interesting. We also hope everyone had a happy and relaxing Waitangi Day! This week in Greater Auckland We’re still running on summer time, but provided two chewy posts: On Tuesday, a guest ...
Queuing on Queen St: the Government is set to announce another apparently splashy growth policy on Sunday of offering residence visas to wealthy migrants. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāLong stories short, the top six things in our political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Friday, February 7:PM Christopher ...
The fact that Waitangi ended up being such a low-key affair may mark it out as one of the most significant Waitangi Days in recent years. A group of women draped in “Toitu Te Tiriti” banners who turned their backs on the politicians’ powhiri was about as rough as it ...
Hi,This week’s Flightless Bird episode was about “fake seizure guy” — a Melbourne man who fakes seizures in order to get members of the public to sit on him.The audio documentary (which I have included in this newsletter in case you don’t listen to Flightless Bird) built on reporting first ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Karin Kirk The 119th Congress comes with a price tag. The oil and gas industry gave about $24 million in campaign contributions to the members of the U.S. House and Senate expected to be sworn in January 3, 2025, according to a ...
Early morning, the shadows still long, but you can already feel the warmth building. Our motel was across the road from the historic homestead where Henry Williams' family lived. The evening before, we wandered around the gardens, reading the plaques and enjoying the close proximity to the history of the ...
Thanks folks for your feedback, votes and comments this week. I’ll be making the changes soon. Appreciate all your emails, comments and subscriptions too. I know your time is valuable - muchas gracias.A lot is happening both here and around the world - so I want to provide a snippets ...
National’s cuts to disability support funding and freezing of new residential placements has resulted in significant mental health decline for intellectually disabled people. ...
The hundreds of jobs lost needlessly as a result of the Kinleith Mill paper production closure will have a devastating impact on the Tokoroa community - something that could have easily been avoided. ...
Today Te Pāti Māori MP for Te Tai Tokerau, Mariameno Kapa-Kingi, released her members bill that will see the return of tamariki and mokopuna Māori from state care back to te iwi Māori. This bill will establish an independent authority that asserts and protects the rights promised in He Whakaputanga ...
The Whangarei District Council being forced to fluoridate their local water supply is facing a despotic Soviet-era disgrace. This is not a matter of being pro-fluoride or anti-fluoride. It is a matter of what New Zealanders see and value as democracy in our country. Individual democratically elected Councillors are not ...
Nicola Willis’ latest supermarket announcement is painfully weak with no new ideas, no real plan, and no relief for Kiwis struggling with rising grocery costs. ...
Half of Pacific children sometimes going without food is just one of many heartbreaking lowlights in the Salvation Army’s annual State of the Nation report. ...
The Salvation Army’s State of the Nation report is a bleak indictment on the failure of Government to take steps to end poverty, with those on benefits, including their children, hit hardest. ...
New Zealand First has today introduced a Member’s Bill which would restore decision-making power to local communities regarding the fluoridation of drinking water. The ‘Fluoridation (Referendum) Legislation Bill’ seeks to repeal the Health (Fluoridation of Drinking Water) Amendment Act 2021 that granted centralised authority to the Direct General of Health ...
New Zealand First has introduced a Member’s Bill aimed at preventing banks from refusing their services to businesses because of the current “Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Framework”. “This Bill ensures fairness and prevents ESG standards from perpetuating woke ideology in the banking sector being driven by unelected, globalist, climate ...
Erica Stanford has reached peak shortsightedness if today’s announcement is anything to go by, picking apart immigration settings piece by piece to the detriment of the New Zealand economy. ...
Our originating document, theTreaty of Waitangi, was signed on February 6, 1840. An agreement between Māori and the British Crown. Initially inked by Ngā Puhi in Waitangi, further signatures were added as it travelled south. The intention was to establish a colony with the cession of sovereignty to the Crown, ...
Te Whatu Ora Chief Executive Margie Apa leaving her job four months early is another symptom of this government’s failure to deliver healthcare for New Zealanders. ...
The Green Party is calling for the Prime Minister to show leadership and be unequivocal about Aotearoa New Zealand’s opposition to a proposal by the US President to remove Palestinians from Gaza. ...
The latest unemployment figures reveal that job losses are hitting Māori and Pacific people especially hard, with Māori unemployment reaching a staggering 9.7% for the December 2024 quarter and Pasifika unemployment reaching 10.5%. ...
Waitangi 2025: Waitangi Day must be community and not politically driven - Shane Jones Our originating document, theTreaty of Waitangi, was signed on February 6, 1840. An agreement between Māori and the British Crown. Initially inked by Ngā Puhi in Waitangi, further signatures were added as it travelled south. ...
Despite being confronted every day with people in genuine need being stopped from accessing emergency housing – National still won’t commit to building more public houses. ...
The Green Party says the Government is giving up on growing the country’s public housing stock, despite overwhelming evidence that we need more affordable houses to solve the housing crisis. ...
Before any thoughts of the New Year and what lies ahead could even be contemplated, New Zealand reeled with the tragedy of Senior Sergeant Lyn Fleming losing her life. For over 38 years she had faithfully served as a front-line Police officer. Working alongside her was Senior Sergeant Adam Ramsay ...
Green Party co-leader Marama Davidson will return to politics at Waitangi on Monday the 3rd of February where she will hold a stand up with fellow co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick. ...
Te Pāti Māori is appalled by the government's blatant mishandling of the school lunch programme. David Seymour’s ‘cost-saving’ measures have left tamariki across Aotearoa with unidentifiable meals, causing distress and outrage among parents and communities alike. “What’s the difference between providing inedible food, and providing no food at all?” Said ...
The Government is doubling down on outdated and volatile fossil fuels, showing how shortsighted and destructive their policies are for working New Zealanders. ...
Green Party MP Steve Abel this morning joined Coromandel locals in Waihi to condemn new mining plans announced by Shane Jones in the pit of the town’s Australian-owned Gold mine. ...
The Green Party is calling on the Government to strengthen its just-announced 2030-2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement and address its woeful lack of commitment to climate security. ...
Today marks a historic moment for Taranaki iwi with the passing of the Te Pire Whakatupua mō Te Kāhui Tupua/Taranaki Maunga Collective Redress Bill in Parliament. "Today, we stand together as descendants of Taranaki, and our tūpuna, Taranaki Maunga, is now formally acknowledged by the law as a living tūpuna. ...
Labour is relieved to see Children’s Minister Karen Chhour has woken up to reality and reversed her government’s terrible decisions to cut funding from frontline service providers – temporarily. ...
It is the first week of David Seymour’s school lunch programme and already social media reports are circulating of revolting meals, late deliveries, and mislabelled packaging. ...
The Green Party says that with no-cause evictions returning from today, the move to allow landlords to end tenancies without reason plunges renters, and particularly families who rent, into insecurity and stress. ...
The Government’s commitment to get New Zealand’s roads back on track is delivering strong results, with around 98 per cent of potholes on state highways repaired within 24 hours of identification every month since targets were introduced, Transport Minister Chris Bishop says. “Increasing productivity to help rebuild our economy is ...
The former Cadbury factory will be the site of the Inpatient Building for the new Dunedin Hospital and Health Minister Simeon Brown says actions have been taken to get the cost overruns under control. “Today I am giving the people of Dunedin certainty that we will build the new Dunedin ...
From today, Plunket in Whāngarei will be offering childhood immunisations – the first of up to 27 sites nationwide, Health Minister Simeon Brown says. The investment of $1 million into the pilot, announced in October 2024, was made possible due to the Government’s record $16.68 billion investment in health. It ...
New Zealand’s strong commitment to the rights of disabled people has continued with the response to an important United Nations report, Disability Issues Minister Louise Upston has announced. Of the 63 concluding observations of the United Nations Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities (UNCRPD), 47 will be progressed ...
Resources Minister Shane Jones has launched New Zealand’s national Minerals Strategy and Critical Minerals List, documents that lay a strategic and enduring path for the mineral sector, with the aim of doubling exports to $3 billion by 2035. Mr Jones released the documents, which present the Coalition Government’s transformative vision ...
Firstly I want to thank OceanaGold for hosting our event today. Your operation at Waihi is impressive. I want to acknowledge local MP Scott Simpson, local government dignitaries, community stakeholders and all of you who have gathered here today. It’s a privilege to welcome you to the launch of the ...
Racing Minister, Winston Peters has announced the Government is preparing public consultation on GST policy proposals which would make the New Zealand racing industry more competitive. “The racing industry makes an important economic contribution. New Zealand thoroughbreds are in demand overseas as racehorses and for breeding. The domestic thoroughbred industry ...
Business confidence remains very high and shows the economy is on track to improve, Economic Growth Minister Nicola Willis says. “The latest ANZ Business Outlook survey, released yesterday, shows business confidence and expected own activity are ‘still both very high’.” The survey reports business confidence fell eight points to +54 ...
Enabling works have begun this week on an expanded radiology unit at Hawke’s Bay Fallen Soldiers’ Memorial Hospital which will double CT scanning capacity in Hawke’s Bay to ensure more locals can benefit from access to timely, quality healthcare, Health Minister Simeon Brown says. This investment of $29.3m in the ...
The Government has today announced New Zealand’s second international climate target under the Paris Agreement, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. New Zealand will reduce emissions by 51 to 55 per cent compared to 2005 levels, by 2035. “We have worked hard to set a target that is both ambitious ...
Nine years of negotiations between the Crown and iwi of Taranaki have concluded following Te Pire Whakatupua mō Te Kāhui Tupua/the Taranaki Maunga Collective Redress Bill passing its third reading in Parliament today, Treaty Negotiations Minister Paul Goldsmith says. “This Bill addresses the historical grievances endured by the eight iwi ...
As schools start back for 2025, there will be a relentless focus on teaching the basics brilliantly so all Kiwi kids grow up with the knowledge, skills and competencies needed to grow the New Zealand of the future, Education Minister Erica Stanford says. “A world-leading education system is a key ...
Housing Minister Chris Bishop and Associate Agriculture Minister Mark Patterson have welcomed Kāinga Ora’s decision to re-open its tender for carpets to allow wool carpet suppliers to bid. “In 2024 Kāinga Ora issued requests for tender (RFTs) seeking bids from suppliers to carpet their properties,” Mr Bishop says. “As part ...
Associate Education Minister David Seymour has today visited Otahuhu College where the new school lunch programme has served up healthy lunches to students in the first days of the school year. “As schools open in 2025, the programme will deliver nutritious meals to around 242,000 students, every school day. On ...
Minister for Children Karen Chhour has intervened in Oranga Tamariki’s review of social service provider contracts to ensure Barnardos can continue to deliver its 0800 What’s Up hotline. “When I found out about the potential impact to this service, I asked Oranga Tamariki for an explanation. Based on the information ...
A bill to make revenue collection on imported and exported goods fairer and more effective had its first reading in Parliament, Customs Minister Casey Costello said today. “The Customs (Levies and Other Matters) Amendment Bill modernises the way in which Customs can recover the costs of services that are needed ...
Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says the Department of Internal Affairs [the Department] has achieved significant progress in completing applications for New Zealand citizenship. “December 2024 saw the Department complete 5,661 citizenship applications, the most for any month in 2024. This is a 54 per cent increase compared ...
Reversals to Labour’s blanket speed limit reductions begin tonight and will be in place by 1 July, says Minister of Transport Chris Bishop. “The previous government was obsessed with slowing New Zealanders down by imposing illogical and untargeted speed limit reductions on state highways and local roads. “National campaigned on ...
Finance Minister Nicola Willis has announced Budget 2025 – the Growth Budget - will be delivered on Thursday 22 May. “This year’s Budget will drive forward the Government’s plan to grow our economy to improve the incomes of New Zealanders now and in the years ahead. “Budget 2025 will build ...
For the Government, 2025 will bring a relentless focus on unleashing the growth we need to lift incomes, strengthen local businesses and create opportunity. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon today laid out the Government’s growth agenda in his Statement to Parliament. “Just over a year ago this Government was elected by ...
Associate Education Minister David Seymour welcomes students back to school with a call to raise attendance from last year. “The Government encourages all students to attend school every day because there is a clear connection between being present at school and setting yourself up for a bright future,” says Mr ...
The Government is relaxing visitor visa requirements to allow tourists to work remotely while visiting New Zealand, Economic Growth Minister Nicola Willis, Immigration Minister Erica Stanford and Tourism Minister Louise Upston say. “The change is part of the Government’s plan to unlock New Zealand’s potential by shifting the country onto ...
The opening of Kāinga Ora’s development of 134 homes in Epuni, Lower Hutt will provide much-needed social housing for Hutt families, Housing Minister Chris Bishop says. “I’ve been a strong advocate for social housing on Kāinga Ora’s Epuni site ever since the old earthquake-prone housing was demolished in 2015. I ...
MONDAYSheriff Seymour rode slowly down the main street of Dodge on his faithful white horse Atlas Network.He liked what he saw.Children were being fed free lunches prepared by kind people who collected the scraps from an offal rendering plant.“Very strongly flavoured liver, such as ox liver, can be soaked overnight ...
Once upon a time it was all about being an astronaut, a firefighter or doctor; but these days kids have their sights set on becoming vloggers or YouTubers.That’s according to a 2019 study by Lego that surveyed 3000 children between the ages of eight to 12 from the US, the ...
Madeleine Chapman reflects on the week that was. From the moment I started high school and realised almost every other girl in my year was at least partially interested in what the boys were up to, I realised that I would be single for life. The feeling wasn’t one of ...
The Pacific profiles series shines a light on Pacific people in Aotearoa doing interesting and important work in their communities, as nominated by members of the public. Today, Selina Alesana Alefosio.All photos by Geoffery Matautia.On a bright Sunday morning from her grandparent’s home in Pito-one, I spoke with ...
The White Lotus star reflects on her life in TV, including the local ad reference that doesn’t work in Australia, and her bananas co-star on Neighbours.Morgana O’Reilly was scrolling her phone next to her sleeping son on an idle Saturday morning when she got the call confirming that she ...
Claire Mabey explores the pros and cons of puff quotes on book covers.In January, Publishers Weekly put out an article by Sean Manning – publisher of Simon & Schuster’s flagship US imprint – in which he said he’d “no longer require authors to obtain blurbs for their books”.The ...
New Zealand’s Entomological Society is hosting its annual bug of the year contest. Here are some of the insects in the running. For some reason – perhaps humans’ inherent competitiveness, the idealisation of democracy, the need to demarcate winners and losers – one of the best ways to get people ...
A journey along the border, with words and illustrations by Bob Kerr.The Spinoff Essay showcases the best essayists in Aotearoa, on topics big and small. Made possible by the generous support of our members.The Sunset Limited leaves Union Station New Orleans on time at nine in the morning. We ...
Neville Peat is the 2024 recipient of the Prime Minister’s Award for Literary Achievement in nonfiction. He’s written 56 books, mostly on natural history; this excerpt is from The Falcon and the Lark: A New Zealand High Country Journal, first published in 1992. The falcon wintering on the Rock and ...
I was born in the back of my grandfather’s ute, by an overgrown windbreak in a remote place called Wahi-Rakauyou can’t find on a map. I was born a girl but given the man’s name Harvey, as my dad always wanted a violent-minded boy to one day help him ...
It was a light-hearted gesture Greta Pilkington will be forever grateful for – thanks to an Aussie rival who jumped in when the Olympic sailor couldn’t be at her own graduation.Pilkington, then 20, had been leading a double life – while qualifying for the 2024 Paris Olympics in the ILCA ...
“We’re not here to interfere in people’s property rights,” Ngāi Tahu’s Te Maire Tau has told the High Court.Tau, a historian, Upoko (traditional leader) of Ngāi Tūāhuriri, and a university professor of history, is the lead witness in a case designed to force the Crown to recognise the tribe’s rangatiratanga ...
Pacific Media Watch Trump administration officials barred two Associated Press (AP) reporters from covering White House events this week because the US-based independent news agency did not change its style guide to align with the president’s political agenda. The AP is being punished for using the term “Gulf of Mexico,” ...
By Lydia Lewis, RNZ Pacific Presenter/Bulletin editor France’s top diplomat in the Pacific region says talks around the “unfreezing” of New Caledonia’s highly controversial electoral roll are back on the table. The French government intended to make a constitutional amendment that would lift restrictions prescribed under the Nouméa Accord, which ...
By bringing these global voices to the fight for free expression in New Zealand, we’ll continue to protect and expand our culture of free speech, says Nathan Seiuli, the Free Speech Union's Events Manager. ...
The issue is no longer a hypothetical one. US President Donald Trump will not explicitly suggest death camps, but he has already consented to Israel’s continuing a war that is not a war but rather a barbaric assault on a desolate stretch of land. From there, the road to annihilation is ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Cecelia Cmielewski, Research Fellow, Institute for Culture and Society, Western Sydney University To be selected as the artist and curator team to represent Australia at the Venice Biennale is considered the ultimate exhibition for an artistic team. To have your selection rescinded, ...
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Clair… Deeks, and Friends. Extremely dodgy people. Spreaders of lies, Mis and Dis Information, and Conspiracy theories unlimited. "Potentially" if not actually dangerous. A worry with this latest. Always good exposing them .
Yes, good for voters to know who is who. There is a Sovereign NZ candidate standing for the Far North District Mayoralty–Joshua Riley from Opua–a pilot and small business person, and a right head case.
He opposes “race specific” i.e. Māori Wards, and the Three Waters reform. The Far North District has one of the highest Māori populations, proportionately in the country.
Naming these people right around the country is so important. There seems to a lot of apathy around local body elections and we need absolute vigilance.
Voters should be careful this election, not to choose fruit-loops and crack-pots.
They are out there, wearing their masks, nose-out, calling the Prime Minister, “Jabcinda” and screaming blue-murder over 3-Waters. Some have managed to get onto the candidate lists and will soon be campaigning for your vote. Ask questions of them; are they afraid of 5G cell-phone towers, do they believe Trump is honest, are they convinced the Gummint is trying to steal their farm?
Councils will be challenged by real issues over the next 3 years; adapting to climate change being the most pressing, in my opinion. Councillors with axes to grind, 3-legged hobby-horses to ride, will fail Southland voters and make a mockery of local government.
I’ve put my name forward again for Environment Southland. I’ve been on that council for 3 terms now, and reckon I’ve done a good job speaking up for the environment.
three legged hobby horse is such a great image.
I have a fb friend ,staunch Maori guy , loves trump ,thinks trump is honest, misogynist asf, hates national and act , votes labour , some people are complicated
Well, if you are an Advocate for the Environment as you are on The Standard …I would say Lucky Environment : )
Ha! I'm way more vocal in the real world 🙂
But thanks 🙂
Imo, its incumbent upon journalists around the country to seek out these imposters (because that is what most of them are) and publish their names.
People are inclined to vote for name recognition in local body elections because they have no idea who any of them are, and they have no inclination to spend time finding out. This is what the VFF crowd are banking on to get their people across the line.
Yes Anne, name recognition plays a big role. In the Far North where I have been for 30 years, a perennial issue is that Mayoral candidates may be well known in Kerikeri or Kaitaia or Kaikohe or Te Hapua or Hokianga or Doubtless Bay–but not over the whole district–which is why Wayne Brown got in for two terms because he had branding based on his years of property development activity and crawling within the business and farming sector.
The Anti vaccination, Groundswell, Convoy, 5G and other nut job lots go under various banners so do need to be identified.
Hi Anne, Ive posted the above Link before….but it still disturbs me. That these "Mumfluencers" cannot see who is actually behind their conspiracy theories and fear mongering.
But yes, Journalist exposure could hopefully throw bright light on the shadowy leaders.
Indeed. And It has also always amazed me that Carter…is still Mayor Far North. Jerk that he is….
Yep, another one. Carter was Hokianga County Clerk in the 80s, and lightweight Natzo MP for many years.
This is pretty much a direct copy-paste from the MAGA playbook, where schools, councils, you name it – have MAGA's lining up to get on the inside.
A deliberate malicious undermining of society because they fear a swarm of communist pronouns and IRS officers are coming for their guns. Here they have different victim fantasies, but it's the same nonsensensical shite.
The people directing such activities are enemies of democracy, period. But we already see MP's talk utter shit to get in. Shoe – other foot!
The rhetoric coming from US is murderous right now. Or should I say murder fantasy. Where the righteous emerge from a storm cloud to purge the land of evil.
Really twisted.
Now, let's see if my and others posts on the subject attract lightly veiled threats from a certain poster, again…
"your fault" "be afraid" etc.
The fascinating thing is that they've succeeded in getting their people to put their hand up for local government, in significant numbers!
It takes a lot to motivate people.
Some, for example those standing for community boards, will get a shock if they find themselves sitting around those tables, committed to 3 years of debating footpaths ands street lights – I guess they can try to rid their communities of 5G towers and get their little town taken off the chem-trail routes.
Robert, that's what I don't get too – how they are going to cope with all the meetings, reading, travel around the electorate, responding to and resolving individuals concerns/problems etc etc.
Maybe the initial flurry of Meet Your Candidates meetings will see them drop out.
I live in a very large, rural ward and the workload is gruelling for our sole Councillor. We have four candidates – at least one has suspect affiliations.
Matiri – indeed; I just can't see what they hope to achieve, but that could just be my lack of understanding; people who profess to despise democracy, signing-up to the strictest of democratic institutions? Their plan must be to get inside and bring it down, but how, I wonder, do they propose to do that?? If their plans are anything like the plans they had for getting an audience with the Government, then I they're going to be sorely disappointed. Otoh, going along to community board meetings; usually as dry as toast, could be an entertainment and I'm certainly going to be there, popcorn in hand! Our local board has a gaggle lining up. It seems there are far more than "we" might suspect.
Edit: it’s just occurred to me that their plan might be to not go to meetings at all, meaning there’s not enough for a quorum, and meetings will fail accordingly 🙂
I was suggesting Mr Arps seemed unlikely to want to attend his school board meetings (if elected). Doesn't seem clear what hes going to change when hes busy agreeing dates for the school fare to be run and deciding if the fees (voluntary donations) should be increased or terminated this year.
Also interesting that he's apparently sending kids to a multi-cultural school to begin with of course. Maybe hes one of those very well adjusted people who keeps his work separate to his family life and this never comes up.
If there is a plan to shut down school boards by not attending meetings I expect it to be activated at a later date and that the candidates haven't been told about it yet. Also the boards will just get one of the unsuccessful candidates co-opted onto the school board at that point anyway, or arm twist somebody to step in (which they do when not enough parents stand anyway).
I don't think there's a solid plan – I think the anti-vaxx candidates just want to put the willies up the "sheeple" and prance. As they did on Parliament's lawn. They won't be aware of deeper machinations, just as they weren't aware on the protest lawn.
If the plan is not to go to meetings so that the meeting fails, he/she will be very very unpopular in our ward if successful, as we rely on our sole councillor to represent us. Life will be very uncomfortable for him/her!!
I don't think running for office is yet in and of itself undermining society. People you (or I) don't like are able to run for office, that's a strength of democracy not a weakness IMO.
Agreed, Nic; great to see them all turn out with their hands up. Disturbing though, to read that their "controlling agency" has advised them to hide their affiliations and intentions from the public. That's kinda whiffy!
Deeply ironic that a bunch of loonies who think the government is sneaky and dishonest, themselves are willing to be sneaky and dishonest to get into power, guess they must think they're allo allo voices please) le resistance
Peace & Love! (Hurl those flagstones!)
Best laugh of the day bwaghorn. "Allo allo" indeed.They bear watching though.
Yep, DB Brown. So much of the NZ nuttery…is connected with the head nuts in the USA. And you are so right..dangerous nuts.
Not in the south but we have locally at least one candidate that is very much trying to say 'affiliated with such and such party' but not naming it.
I have complained about that to local government that including party membership/alliances should be part of the intro of the dudes/ettes standing and we were told that that was no important.
That was for the last election which was before that brouhaha broke out.
So in essence you will not be allowed that information for anyone irrespective the party that they would promote/vote for.
Hi Sabine, well good on you for taking note and complaining about it. Local Govt is at least a place where we can all attempt to Change for Good.
If you have the stomach.
Jaspreet Boparai returns with Gill Booth to summarise with Claire Deeks what they’ve been talking about for the past year on the Be Kind Be Blind series and find a focus on a way forward which all concerned kiwis can take when it comes to stopping the UN Agenda playing out in our local councils.
https://odysee.com/@voicesforfreedom:6/Be-Kind-Be-Blind-Special:2
joe90, hmmm I already know of their extremist views. I might pass on viewing that clip. (even at the beginning, i could feel the attack on my rationality : )
I'm not sure they have any extremist views of their own. I reckon they're bored, resentful, and after so many trips down the damn rabbit hole, delusional nobodies who finally have something to latch onto, the UN Agenda playing out in our local councils, purpose. Egged on by the cowardly well heeled fucks who instigate and inflame the nonsense from the safety and comfort of their own living rooms, home studios, cordons of minders in dirty dogs and, as in Wellington, the best hotel rooms in the town.
And there doesn't seem to be any one thing in particular that unites these dangerous loons in their campaign to upend the lives of their fellow New Zealanders. They say that they're all about liberty and freedom but I think these are catch-all excuses for their grab bag of grudges, grievances, resentments, and their apparent paranoia about the dark, amorphous forces they perceive to be responsible for their shitty, boring lives.
Pretty much. And well summed.
People should just look after themselves if they’re worried about covid, right?
https://twitter.com/tiredasfmilf/status/1559166458512478210
(it was the grandparents visiting).
There is always something to get politics followers attention–and the latest for me is the Labour Caucus embracing the US Pacific “charm offensive” (charming in public anyway–75 years ago…WWII…sob…etc.) and behind the scenes cuddling up via various US State Department personnel visits, including recently Deputy Secretary Wendy Sherman, and signing a ‘space agreement’ fer crissakes, which really just recognises and approves the increased US military use of Rocketlab.
https://nz.usembassy.gov/deputy-secretary-sherman-in-new-zealand/
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2021/07/rocket-lab-s-peter-beck-defends-contracts-with-us-military-says-space-industry-intertwined-with-defence.html
Toadying up to US Imperialism is never a good look–how far away can actual AUKUS membership be?–this is shameful for a country with Nuclear Free Legislation.
What we have to look forward to should National or Act get a chance.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/aug/16/i-worked-on-privatisation-england-water-1989-failed-regime?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Well we must hope then that L will do its utmost best to prevent what ever they are creating re Water and other utilities to be not misused for privatisation by other parties.
I mean after all they are doing all the 'reforming' atm. Surely safeguarding and safekeeping of these assets in the commons will be a big aspect of it.
National refused to discuss the Privatisation model of proposed 3 Waters, saying instead that they would cancel 3 Waters so privatisation would be irrelevant. Ha Ha!
Well yeah, if something doesn't exist, it can't be privatised.
I would expect N to privatize anything they can lay their hands on, after all that is what they do.
What i expect of L is to know that too and to safeguard our assets so that they can not be privatized by anyone and keep it in the Commons for all.
Labour seeks to entrench the provision against privatisation. National refuses.
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/three-waters-entrenchment
It's meaningless. Future governments can simply change the law. The greatest protection against privatisation would be to reverse the 3Waters reforms altogether.
Or block National & ACT from getting into government.
I favour this solution 🙂
Unhappily for us, but happily for democracy, we two don't get to decide that!
Enrol. Join a Party. Canvass. Vote.
Both works for me.
Let some National government long after my death find itself facing a public backlash of unprecedented severity for trying to pass legislation allowing it to steal our country's water.
LibertyBelle. Do you understand what was proposed in the entrenched clause? 75% majority required.
Yes. Which means future governments can simply change the law.
As obtuse as ever, I see.
Is the clause that entrenches the anti-privatisation clause also entrenched? i.e. can the entrenchment itself be removed with a simple majority? Genuine question – I'm not sure how this stuff works.
The argument you were making was actually if something doesn't exist it can't be privatized. So I expect your about to explain how the country should function doing away with its water infrastructure (rather than privatizing it, or relying on the government not to). So do go ahead…
not really. It's a matter of how easy it is to privatise. Is it easier to privatise currently or if 3 waters is enacted?
Is there an explanation for how NACT will be prevented from privatising using the 3 Waters structure?
Well good for you, you want to assume 'LibertyBelle' is making a good faith argument, rather than the argument actually made in 4.1.1.1.
Robert Guyton has a good understanding of the relevant constitutional arrangements here of course.
My argument is in good faith and goes like this.
3Waters creates a monolithic, nationwide, water services organisation. For all intents and purposes it ends Council control over those assets, and transfers control to that entity, which is in effect a monopoly. My view is that is a far more attractive beast for privatisation that a series of truly locally controlled and owned water services enterprises.
I view 3Waters as a strange animal. It seems to be a solution well wide of the problem, but that's a different discussion. It is far being a safeguard against privatisation.
no, I was responding to *you apparently dismissing concerns (from anyone) about how tory-proof the plan is.
NZ doesn't have an overriding constitutional system. The only possible protection is not to have a privatising govt in office. A 75% vote against privatisation would be stronger but even this govt doesn't have such a majority.
On the other hand LibertyBelle's argument that govts can change laws is not in good faith. They have several arguments at the same time as you can see. Apparently their best argument, presented at the dregs of a thread for the first time naturally, is that having national framework for water makes it a monopoly. Water is a natural monopoly regardless of the legislation.
But your looking for some stronger proofing than legislation inside a legislative system. Good luck.
"Water is a natural monopoly regardless of the legislation."
The issue is not whether 'water' is a monopoly, the issue is whether the delivery of water services is a monopoly. 3Waters creates such a monopoly at a national level, which makes it an attractive proposition for sale.
Are you aware, LibertyBelle, of provisions and protections made by the Labour Government, to guard against the very thing you fear?
Regardless of what you want to call it water is a natural monopoly.
Robert, LibertyBelle is clearly fearless.
The country can function without the 3Waters reforms quite well. And with smaller water providers, the likelihood of privatisation would be significantly reduced.
Weirdly Maori corporates gaining 50% of the water entities start to look a lot more reliable than Parliament as a defence of sovereign ownership here.
Imagine if Maori had owned 50% of Contact, Genesis, or Mighty River Power (as it was). Then Key tried to sell them (as he did). He would have Supreme Court rulings at him left right and centre.
The 75% threshold is the Parliamentary limit. But they forgot the first 50% Maori limit.
With Maori at the table from the beginning, it would be very hard to see these new entities bringing in Vivendi and RWE to 'privatise-by-stealth' as Papakura Council did in the early 2000s.
Maori ‘sell’ assets they obtain for gain and good on them. For example ex Crown land in Auckland offered to mana whenua under RFR clauses in the Tamaki Collective.
You could really do with some civics lessons.
I have made bold the relevant section.
Entrenchment in NZ
Six provisions in New Zealand law are constitutionally entrenched, meaning they can only be changed by a vote of more than 75% of the House of Representatives or more than 50% at a referendum. They are contained in the Electoral Act 1993 (and one in the Constitution Act 1986) and relate to:
None of which prevents any future government changing the legislation.
Except that it gets way way way harder to get a 75% vote from MPs than it does to get a 50% vote.
Perhaps you should have a look at how few times a 75% vote is achieved on any legislation in our parliament.
Usually it is only on repair legislation, treaties, MP pensions, and the few bits of legislation enabling referendums, and …. thats about it.
It requires a super majority by both major parties before it can happen in reality. As you can see from the examples given – we really only get entrenched legislation on things of common interest to both major political groups.
Of course it's 'way harder'. But it isn't impossible. The combined value of the water services companies will be huge, and a very tempting proposition for raising money, particularly to pay off debt.
So, now you change your tune from twice “future governments can simply change the law” [my italics] to “Of course it’s ‘way harder’”.
In my view, you are a disingenuous commenter who does not come here in good faith and who sucks away a lot of oxygen, in fact way too much oxygen.
"So, now you change your tune from twice “future governments can simply change the law” [my italics] to “Of course it’s ‘way harder’”."
You have difficulty with comprehension. The word simply doesn't always mean something is simple, does it? Here's an example – 'if someone continues to ignore you, you can simple ignore them'. Get it now?
Yes, I get that you like to waste good people’s time here and that you’re pretty good at it too. As a Moderator I’m always concerned about obtuse commenters who monopolise the discourse here and who clearly show no sign of letting up. Let’s see if your reading comprehension is up to it and if you can parse this.
PS to write “… you can simple ignore them” is not cute. Perhaps you could pay more attention to what others are saying instead of ignoring them and/or fobbing them off. And believe me, I won’t ignore you.
"You have difficulty with comprehension."
A step too far, imo.
LibertyBelle, Incognito, is, in my opinion, giving you, and us, the run-around 🙂
N is currently in no position to refuse anything as they are not the government. Labour a single majority – they can do as they like.
It is easy to blame N – after all they are whom they are, but currently all they can do is bark.
Yep, NAct bark is worse that its bite; voters decide how soon that changes.
My understanding is that in order to entrench a clause to say 75% vote in order to ensure its longevity, that 75% must vote for it. Labour would need National approval and its vote to achieve that.
"Standing Orders provide that an entrenched provision should be adopted by the House only by the vote which would be required for the amendment or repeal of the provision being entrenched. " https://gg.govt.nz/office-governor-general/roles-and-functions-governor-general/constitutional-role/constitution (two paragraphs from the end of the document!)
Even more reasons to revile the current occupation of Ukraine.
From Nature Magazine.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-02219-4?utm_source=Nature+Briefing&utm_campaign=0ee1356685-briefing-dy-20220816&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c9dfd39373-0ee1356685-47041915
”Even a small conflict in which two nations unleash nuclear weapons on each other could lead to worldwide famine, research suggests. Soot from burning cities would encircle the planet and cool it by reflecting sunlight back into space. This, in turn, would cause global crop failures that — in a worst-case scenario — could put five billion people on the brink of death. The research is the latest in a decades-long thought experiment about the global consequences of nuclear war. It seems especially relevant today as Russia’s war against Ukraine has disrupted global food supplies, underscoring the far-reaching impacts of a regional conflict. “
Toby Curtis dead. "Sir" if you go along with such honours.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/rotorua-daily-post/news/te-arawa-leader-sir-toby-curtis-dies-at-home-in-rotorua/FXUCJIIDPFCUS6TXINZ2V7EORA/
This is the same Toby Curtis that expressed disappointment that his nephews were found guilty of murdering Nia Glassie rather than being found guilty of the lesser charge of manslaughter.
This is the same Toy Curtis who spoke about the shame the Curtis family would have to endure as they visited marae around the rohe. Yes….he did give the impression that it was an untoward burden of shame…rather than one richly deserved.
This is the same Toby Curtis, who described the murder of Nia Glassie as "…just one of those things."
I vividly remember this particular interview I have involuntarily snorted every time in the past 14 years he has been introduced as 'Highly respected Te Arawa kaumatua.'
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/11279/child%27s-death-just-one-of-those-things-killers%27-family
Losing faith in Colin Dann-
sits there and lets Luxon pontificate about how they, the principled party, believe voters should choose the MPs, when his party is currently in the middle of a scandal where they kept information from voters so they could not choose properly on full information.
From today’s Morning Report.
https://elections.nz/assets/Party-rules/national-party-rules-and-constitution.pdf
Candidate selection rules Rules 87-118 apply.
Rule 98. (a)
A pre-selection committee shall be convened in all Electorates at the closing of nominations, subject to Rule 97 (a).
(b) The purpose of the pre-selection committee is to:
So, Luxon believes voters should choose the MPs? Who chooses the candidates?
Agree with you newsense, the conflating of the Waka jumping law by Luxon with “National supports letting the voters choose MP's" was never challenged by Corin Dann either. Kim Hill would have though.
I know poor old Luxy had a tough interview with Susie a week or two back, but given the background of these couple of weeks and couple of years of candidate selection it’s worse than softball.
Quite clear the selection team knew about Uffindell and thought he was fine. Why?
Labour on current polling even to get a shot at government needs the Greens to be stronger, the Maori Party to be stronger, and any other help.
So presumably now if Ardern really wants power in a third term, she has some deals to stitch:
– Labour agrees not to oppose Gaurav Sharma in Hamilton West, and he agrees to support Labour in the party vote. Or Labour just agrees to let his LEC select him.
– Labour agrees not to oppose Chloe Swarbrick in Auckland Central
– Labour agrees not to stand Tamati Coffey against Rawiri Waititi
– Labour agrees not to stand a candidate in Te Tai Hauaru against Debbie Ngarewa-Packer
As the polls get deeper the list will need to be added to.
National will probably be eyeing up having a decent crack at the Hamilton West seat next election.
I'm sure they will Jimmy….but as you know it is the party vote that counts.
No. The electorate vote (FPP) is what elects a local MP (in Hamilton West or any other electorate).
The party vote only matters for the list seats.
I highly doubt that Labour will win Hamilton West. They won in 2020 due to the Jacinda bounce – but hadn't won the seat for the previous 15 years.
Unless there is a major reversal of current polling it would seem one that National would likely win – even without the Sharma situation.
Agreed Bella-sorry I didn't make my post clear.
Of course it is the electorate vote that elects individuals in electorates but it is the percentage party vote that dictates the number of MP's per each party ends up with, assuming a party gets at least 5% or has one or more electorate seat.
(And there can be overhang seats too)
More than a crack, there was a line of thinking that Dr Sharma kicked the whole thing off after noting that Hamilton West was very likely going back to the National candidate next time.
Tamati Coffey can stand all he wants, he will not win a thing.
that's a big cultural shift for a party that prides itself on standing someone in every electorate, and which has eschewed such strategy in the past. Do you think it's likely?
Think Sharma is unlikely, as he doesn't have a realistic chance of winning against National, especially without the Labour machine behind him.
Definitely worth considering the other two scenarios, to benefit TPM and Greens. Although Labour has always firmly rejected this kind of accommodation in the recent past.
And would have to put those candidates not standing in a very winnable place on the party list (which might be a tense negotiation – especially with Helen White in Ak Central), or parachute them into a post-parliamentary career (cf Louisa Wall)
The way the polls are ATM, the Greens don't need the accommodation in Ak Central – they have sufficient polling support to get into parliament, independently.
TPM require an electorate seat, unless they hit the 5% threshold (which seems unlikely at the moment). I don't know enough about the personalities and the politics in the individual Maori electorates, to know if TPM candidate is already the front-runner – so whether a Labour concession is worth-while for them.
Is the Taxpayers Poll being discussed? 17 August:
https://www.taxpayers.org.nz/taxpayer_update_new_poll_peter_williams_podcast_mp_whistleblower
Thanks Ianmac-I hadn’t seen that and the media doesn't seem to be talking about the Taxpayers Union Poll.
Perhaps this is because it shows Lab/Gr/MP getting 62 seats and so being able to form a government.
Doubt it. All polls have been keenly addressed to date – and the media have regularly led with TPM holding the 'balance of power'.
Suspect it's just that Sharma has sucked all the political oxygen over the last few days, as Uffindell did previously.
As this seems to be dying down now, I'd expect regular transmission to resume.
My $0.02 worth: I think all polls with a difference of less than 3% are within the margin of error, and too close to call (been saying this consistently for months)
Never ever rely solely (or blindly) on (NZ) MSM. If you like to see just the poll numbers without the ‘interpretation’ of the usual suspects in NZ MSM and political pundits with the inevitable associated bias then go here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_New_Zealand_general_election
It is very up to date 🙂
I knew there was a Taxpayer Poll out but couldn't find it on The Herald. Why not?
And even on the Taxpayers page the seem to dodge the numbers leaving it in broad graphs. But they are not biased are they?
Doesn't suit their agreed agenda BG? Now if it had been the other way round… Luxon was soaring and Arderrn plummeting then it would have knocked the Sharma drama, and the Uffindell upset completely off the news circuit. It may even have forced the raging torrents of water flooding villages and towns in the Sth. Island into second place. 👿
Media have frequently reported these polls (both with Labour ahead and with National ahead, as well as with TMP holding the balance of power – as they do in this one).
To ascribe this as not being reported, because it doesn't fit an 'agenda' is pretty far gone along the conspiracy theory path.
And, indeed, a quick search of the news headlines finds an article in the Herald, released at 11:18 this morning.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/poll-national-and-leader-christopher-luxon-drop-labour-overtakes-in-new-poll/NOLDDJMIMBHUZPPHZV22XP5XFA/
Thanks Belladonna though I just had a look again online and apart from your link I still couldn't find it. Certainly not front and centre.
Google search: poll today nz – has it as the first result in the hit list.
It's not hard….
NZ herald Politics section has it on the front page, too
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/
Google searches are tailored to each individual user, i.e., your ‘hits’ will be (slightly?) different from anybody else’s ‘hits’. It also depends on whether one limits to NZ only or all countries, for example. That said, the NZH is also the first result (“20 hours ago”) of my search using Google.
Yeah, I know that Google relevance rankings use an arcane art to weigh results. But working on the assumption that commenters here are both interested in politcs and in NZ – you're pretty likely to get the same results for a political search.
Bollocks Belladonna. I know you have a high opinion of your abilities, but many of us here are experienced and politically very aware. Being lectured by you about some aspects that we have known for years might be amusing, but is not always a pathway to good conversations.
Bearded Git @ 9.1 knows I was being facetious with a tinge of humour thrown in. TS regulars are well versed in such banter. Suggest you read and learn before leaping in with your criticism. It only lead to equally negative responses.
Many of the commenters on TS are, indeed, highly experienced and politically very aware.
Poorly informed claims that the media are biased, however, aren't either funny or clever. And, in fact, they are dangerous…. (if you can't figure out why, I'm happy to discuss further)
Using emoticons or emojis doesn't excuse you from mis-representing the facts. Although it might pay to stick to ones where you're certain of the meaning, and equally certain it won't be misunderstood.
The occasional apology – when you get something wrong – wouldn't exactly go amiss. Doubling down, when you're called on something, also 'leads to negative responses'
On that note Bella I accept now that the Herald did report the TU poll prominently.
Having said that it's report that the MP would be the "kingmaker" appears somewhat biased when in fact they would be the queenmaker.
And correct me if I am wrong but Griffin's RNZ has given this poll no air time at all?
Sorry, don't have enough time in my day to listen to radio & know whether or not it was covered in any of the programmes.
The RNZ politics page has a grand total of 3 political links dated the 17th on the main page (page viewed 10 am 18/8)
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political
* Govt orders review of RSE scheme
* Luxon still against waka jumping legislation amid Uffindell inquiry
* Sharma remains under threat of expulsion (really a re-hash of the day before, for those who get their news in the morning)
Seems a fairly balanced list of topics: both right and left getting some airtime, and a big government-initiated investigation into a topic of significance.
Oh and btw, that is why we add emoticons. It is to show we are not always being strictly serious. See, you've learnt something.
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Left & Right blocs essentially neck-and-neck … TPM holding balance.
Luxon's initial fall in popularity didn't affect National's ratings, now it's beginning to.
While NZF is only rating 2.6%, Winston almost doubles his personal popularity to 4.2% … suggesting a pool of voters who are currently unsure of their party support but prefer Winnie as PM (possibly indicating some latent NZF support that may manifest over the next year).
Indicating they are not accepting of either major party ….or a plague on both their houses.
"…a pool of voters who are currently unsure of their party support but prefer Winnie as PM (possibly indicating…") their complete detachment from reality?
Peters is still well below Seymour in preferred PM league.
I think we can all agree that the rats-and-mice numbers at the bottom are just about name recognition in those surveyed, rather than signifying any real support. Especially as those indicating they would vote for NZF remain around 2.5% (as they have all year) well shy of the 5% threshold.
Ardern and Luxon are the only ones that matter here.
Ardern will be hoping that the uptick in popular support for her, personally, will spill over into Labour votes, too.
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Irrelevant to the question of whether or not the doubling of his personal rating (making it almost twice as high as current committed NZF supporters) indicates a latent potential pool of support for NZF.
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Nope … NZF support in Curia-Taxpayers Polls (2022):
Jan 0.9 … Feb 1.5 … March 1.8 … April 1.7 … May 1.8 … June 2.3 … July 2.8 … Aug 2.6.
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NZF has made a bit of a habit of outperforming the polls. Not in 2020 … but certainly in election campaigns where Labour's support is down on the previous election (NZF outperforming both in terms of the immediate pre-election polls and, even more so, the polls more than a year out … which is where we are at the moment).
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Ardern is down slightly in this latest Curia-Taxpayers Poll.
Apologies, I was looking at the general trend, here – which has her with a sharp tick up. I gather you were measuring against the previous CT poll?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_New_Zealand_general_election
Re Peters. I don't think that doubling support, when the figures are so low, is really meaningful. It would be well within the margin of error.
Poll results at the margins (below about 3%) are notoriously inaccurate.
NZF made a habit of outperforming polls when voters believed that Peters would go with the larger party, and be a handbrake on them. After 2017, I don't think that many voters would trust him to do that.
Future polls will show if you're right. If there's an upward trend for NZF – then, you have my concession in advance. 🙂
However, I do think that many people (those who aren't firm party voters), tend to select the 'person' they like for the leader category, but are generally more influenced by policies (or what's going right or wrong for them in an economic/political sense) when deciding which 'party' to vote for.
[That's just my opinion, BTW, I don't have anything from polling companies to back it up]
For your education:
https://www.colmarbrunton.co.nz/1-news-poll/
Thank you for the data.
This is an older article, but I think it does articulate well, why small percentage point differences in poll results aren't particularly accurate or useful.
It does use American examples – but AFAIK NZ polling uses the same statistical sampling methodology.
There is a tendency in the media and elsewhere to look at a 1% percentage change as 'real news', when actually it's within the margin of error, and may simply be statistical 'noise'
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/06/upshot/when-you-hear-the-margin-of-error-is-plus-or-minus-3-percent-think-7-instead.html
Yes Winston is a worry Sword…he will probably go with Luxon next time IMHO.
I still believe National will replace Luxon before the election. They would be crazy not to. Every Wednesday morning is Jacinda's birthday. An election campaign is non-stop Wednesday mornings.
See the preferred PM polling from 2005 to 2008. Luxon is Brash, not Key. Why try and win with a self-imposed handicap?
I don't know if they have a Key, or an Ardern – maybe Willis would be the closest. But Luxon definitely isn't, that comparison has never made any sense.
So anyway … National caucus, please ignore the above. Luxon's the man!
Willis is smart enough – but not long on charisma. This is also Luxon's weakness. Key could fake a bit of bonhomie, but the only Gnat with any charisma at all is Bishop, whose intellect, sadly, always makes us recall the opening lines of this song.
I don't think Luxon is at all secure, though there is no obvious successor – and National will be very wary of any further instability (the post-Bridges history is a dreadful warning….)
I think that the next poll or two will be critical. If the National vote stabilizes or rises – they won't really care about Luxon's personal popularity, too much.
They won't ditch Luxon. They will simply media train him within an inch of his life and tell him to play it safe.
I do think Luxon doubling down on the tax cuts for the rich (39% rate gone, bright line test back to 2 years) are a huge mistake and a gift to Labour.
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More Clark vs Brash in the run-up to the 2005 Election … which was close.
And a cunning TPU question heading with:"Most Voters want the Government to cut taxes."
Next the TU will be asking turkeys "Do you support Christmas?"
But a recent poll showed that 65 % didn't want tax cuts. So was that Taxpayers question a defensive move to soften the Luxon Stand?
Both can be true.
Personally i am not for tax cuts at the upper end of income. I would prefer the first 10 – 25 grand to be made tax free as that would support low income workers, pensioneers and beneficiaries most as they would fall into this group.
Maybe it depends were the cutting happens?
Maybe you are right ianmac, but Luxon has recently doubled down on tax cuts as I said above.
Good afternoon Moderator
I am following Lynn's instructions to advise you that I have changed my email address.
It used to be a [deleted] email.
Thanks.
Thanks for the note and you’re all good to go using the new e-mail address from now on. Your avatar will be different though.