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Open mike 17/08/2022

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, August 17th, 2022 - 128 comments
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Open mike is your post.

For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose.

The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).

Step up to the mike …

128 comments on “Open mike 17/08/2022 ”

  1. PsyclingLeft.Always 1

    Several candidates around the South are either directly affiliated with, or have shared their support online for, the group Voices for Freedom.

    But they have been urged to keep those links quiet.

    In an August 9 email seen by the Otago Daily Times, Voices for Freedom co-founder Claire Deeks encouraged candidates not to disclose their affiliation with the group, which has also urged followers to make New Zealand "ungovernable".

    Two high-profile VFF affiliates, Gill Booth and Jaspreet Boparai, were standing for the Teviot Valley Community Board, and the Southland District Council and Tuatapere Te Waewae Community Board respectively.

    https://www.odt.co.nz/news/dunedin/concern-candidates-not-being-upfront

    Voices For Freedom is led by Libby Johnson, Alia Bland and Claire Deeks, a former lawyer who stood unsuccessfully for parliament in 2020.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/stuff-circuit/300660552/antivax-group-wanting-to-make-nz-ungovernable-targets-local-body-elections

    Clair… Deeks, and Friends. Extremely dodgy people. Spreaders of lies, Mis and Dis Information, and Conspiracy theories unlimited. "Potentially" if not actually dangerous. A worry with this latest. Always good exposing them .

    • Tiger Mountain 1.1

      Yes, good for voters to know who is who. There is a Sovereign NZ candidate standing for the Far North District Mayoralty–Joshua Riley from Opua–a pilot and small business person, and a right head case.

      He opposes “race specific” i.e. Māori Wards, and the Three Waters reform. The Far North District has one of the highest Māori populations, proportionately in the country.

      • RosieLee 1.1.1

        Naming these people right around the country is so important. There seems to a lot of apathy around local body elections and we need absolute vigilance.

        • Robert Guyton 1.1.1.1

          Voters should be careful this election, not to choose fruit-loops and crack-pots.

          They are out there, wearing their masks, nose-out, calling the Prime Minister, “Jabcinda” and screaming blue-murder over 3-Waters. Some have managed to get onto the candidate lists and will soon be campaigning for your vote. Ask questions of them; are they afraid of 5G cell-phone towers, do they believe Trump is honest, are they convinced the Gummint is trying to steal their farm?

          Councils will be challenged by real issues over the next 3 years; adapting to climate change being the most pressing, in my opinion. Councillors with axes to grind, 3-legged hobby-horses to ride, will fail Southland voters and make a mockery of local government.

          I’ve put my name forward again for Environment Southland. I’ve been on that council for 3 terms now, and reckon I’ve done a good job speaking up for the environment.

          • Patricia Bremner 1.1.1.1.1

            yes Well done Robert, we need more like you.

          • weka 1.1.1.1.2

            three legged hobby horse is such a great image.

          • bwaghorn 1.1.1.1.3

            I have a fb friend ,staunch Maori guy , loves trump ,thinks trump is honest, misogynist asf, hates national and act , votes labour , some people are complicated

          • PsyclingLeft.Always 1.1.1.1.4

            reckon I’ve done a good job speaking up for the environment.

            Well, if you are an Advocate for the Environment as you are on The Standard …I would say Lucky Environment : )

        • Anne 1.1.1.2

          Imo, its incumbent upon journalists around the country to seek out these imposters (because that is what most of them are) and publish their names.

          People are inclined to vote for name recognition in local body elections because they have no idea who any of them are, and they have no inclination to spend time finding out. This is what the VFF crowd are banking on to get their people across the line.

          • Tiger Mountain 1.1.1.2.1

            Yes Anne, name recognition plays a big role. In the Far North where I have been for 30 years, a perennial issue is that Mayoral candidates may be well known in Kerikeri or Kaitaia or Kaikohe or Te Hapua or Hokianga or Doubtless Bay–but not over the whole district–which is why Wayne Brown got in for two terms because he had branding based on his years of property development activity and crawling within the business and farming sector.

            The Anti vaccination, Groundswell, Convoy, 5G and other nut job lots go under various banners so do need to be identified.

          • PsyclingLeft.Always 1.1.1.2.2

            Mackie says the largest (and most well-resourced) anti-vaccine group in New Zealand, the female-led Voices For Freedom, deliberately set out to target mums more than a year ago

            https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300520631/its-like-a-cult-how-antivaccine-mumfluencers-are-fuelling-the-parliament-occupation

            Hi Anne, Ive posted the above Link before….but it still disturbs me. That these "Mumfluencers" cannot see who is actually behind their conspiracy theories and fear mongering.

            But yes, Journalist exposure could hopefully throw bright light on the shadowy leaders.

      • PsyclingLeft.Always 1.1.2

        Carter was sacked as whip in 1995, after he phoned into a talkback radio show, hosted by fellow National MP John Banks impersonating a work-shy Maori called Hone, causing widespread offence.

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Carter_(New_Zealand_politician)

        Indeed. And It has also always amazed me that Carter…is still Mayor Far North. Jerk that he is….

        • Tiger Mountain 1.1.2.1

          Yep, another one. Carter was Hokianga County Clerk in the 80s, and lightweight Natzo MP for many years.

    • DB Brown 1.2

      This is pretty much a direct copy-paste from the MAGA playbook, where schools, councils, you name it – have MAGA's lining up to get on the inside.

      A deliberate malicious undermining of society because they fear a swarm of communist pronouns and IRS officers are coming for their guns. Here they have different victim fantasies, but it's the same nonsensensical shite.

      The people directing such activities are enemies of democracy, period. But we already see MP's talk utter shit to get in. Shoe – other foot!

      The rhetoric coming from US is murderous right now. Or should I say murder fantasy. Where the righteous emerge from a storm cloud to purge the land of evil.

      Really twisted.

      Now, let's see if my and others posts on the subject attract lightly veiled threats from a certain poster, again…

      "your fault" "be afraid" etc.

      • Robert Guyton 1.2.1

        The fascinating thing is that they've succeeded in getting their people to put their hand up for local government, in significant numbers!

        It takes a lot to motivate people.

        Some, for example those standing for community boards, will get a shock if they find themselves sitting around those tables, committed to 3 years of debating footpaths ands street lights – I guess they can try to rid their communities of 5G towers and get their little town taken off the chem-trail routes.

        • Matiri 1.2.1.1

          Robert, that's what I don't get too – how they are going to cope with all the meetings, reading, travel around the electorate, responding to and resolving individuals concerns/problems etc etc.

          Maybe the initial flurry of Meet Your Candidates meetings will see them drop out.

          I live in a very large, rural ward and the workload is gruelling for our sole Councillor. We have four candidates – at least one has suspect affiliations.

          • Robert Guyton 1.2.1.1.1

            Matiri – indeed; I just can't see what they hope to achieve, but that could just be my lack of understanding; people who profess to despise democracy, signing-up to the strictest of democratic institutions? Their plan must be to get inside and bring it down, but how, I wonder, do they propose to do that?? If their plans are anything like the plans they had for getting an audience with the Government, then I they're going to be sorely disappointed. Otoh, going along to community board meetings; usually as dry as toast, could be an entertainment and I'm certainly going to be there, popcorn in hand! Our local board has a gaggle lining up. It seems there are far more than "we" might suspect.
            Edit: it’s just occurred to me that their plan might be to not go to meetings at all, meaning there’s not enough for a quorum, and meetings will fail accordingly 🙂

            • Nic the NZer 1.2.1.1.1.1

              I was suggesting Mr Arps seemed unlikely to want to attend his school board meetings (if elected). Doesn't seem clear what hes going to change when hes busy agreeing dates for the school fare to be run and deciding if the fees (voluntary donations) should be increased or terminated this year.

              Also interesting that he's apparently sending kids to a multi-cultural school to begin with of course. Maybe hes one of those very well adjusted people who keeps his work separate to his family life and this never comes up.

              If there is a plan to shut down school boards by not attending meetings I expect it to be activated at a later date and that the candidates haven't been told about it yet. Also the boards will just get one of the unsuccessful candidates co-opted onto the school board at that point anyway, or arm twist somebody to step in (which they do when not enough parents stand anyway).

              • Robert Guyton

                I don't think there's a solid plan – I think the anti-vaxx candidates just want to put the willies up the "sheeple" and prance. As they did on Parliament's lawn. They won't be aware of deeper machinations, just as they weren't aware on the protest lawn.

            • Matiri 1.2.1.1.1.2

              If the plan is not to go to meetings so that the meeting fails, he/she will be very very unpopular in our ward if successful, as we rely on our sole councillor to represent us. Life will be very uncomfortable for him/her!!

      • Nic the NZer 1.2.2

        I don't think running for office is yet in and of itself undermining society. People you (or I) don't like are able to run for office, that's a strength of democracy not a weakness IMO.

        • Robert Guyton 1.2.2.1

          Agreed, Nic; great to see them all turn out with their hands up. Disturbing though, to read that their "controlling agency" has advised them to hide their affiliations and intentions from the public. That's kinda whiffy!

          • bwaghorn 1.2.2.1.1

            Deeply ironic that a bunch of loonies who think the government is sneaky and dishonest, themselves are willing to be sneaky and dishonest to get into power, guess they must think they're allo allo voices please) le resistance

      • PsyclingLeft.Always 1.2.3

        Yep, DB Brown. So much of the NZ nuttery…is connected with the head nuts in the USA. And you are so right..dangerous nuts.

    • Sabine 1.3

      Not in the south but we have locally at least one candidate that is very much trying to say 'affiliated with such and such party' but not naming it.

      I have complained about that to local government that including party membership/alliances should be part of the intro of the dudes/ettes standing and we were told that that was no important.

      That was for the last election which was before that brouhaha broke out.

      So in essence you will not be allowed that information for anyone irrespective the party that they would promote/vote for.

      • PsyclingLeft.Always 1.3.1

        Hi Sabine, well good on you for taking note and complaining about it. Local Govt is at least a place where we can all attempt to Change for Good.

    • joe90 1.4

      VFF affiliates, Gill Booth and Jaspreet Boparai,

      If you have the stomach.

      Jaspreet Boparai returns with Gill Booth to summarise with Claire Deeks what they’ve been talking about for the past year on the Be Kind Be Blind series and find a focus on a way forward which all concerned kiwis can take when it comes to stopping the UN Agenda playing out in our local councils.

      https://odysee.com/@voicesforfreedom:6/Be-Kind-Be-Blind-Special:2

      • PsyclingLeft.Always 1.4.1

        joe90, hmmm I already know of their extremist views. I might pass on viewing that clip. (even at the beginning, i could feel the attack on my rationality : )

        • joe90 1.4.1.1

          I'm not sure they have any extremist views of their own. I reckon they're bored, resentful, and after so many trips down the damn rabbit hole, delusional nobodies who finally have something to latch onto, the UN Agenda playing out in our local councils, purpose. Egged on by the cowardly well heeled fucks who instigate and inflame the nonsense from the safety and comfort of their own living rooms, home studios, cordons of minders in dirty dogs and, as in Wellington, the best hotel rooms in the town.

          And there doesn't seem to be any one thing in particular that unites these dangerous loons in their campaign to upend the lives of their fellow New Zealanders. They say that they're all about liberty and freedom but I think these are catch-all excuses for their grab bag of grudges, grievances, resentments, and their apparent paranoia about the dark, amorphous forces they perceive to be responsible for their shitty, boring lives.

  2. weka 2

    People should just look after themselves if they’re worried about covid, right?

    (it was the grandparents visiting).

  3. Tiger Mountain 3

    There is always something to get politics followers attention–and the latest for me is the Labour Caucus embracing the US Pacific “charm offensive” (charming in public anyway–75 years ago…WWII…sob…etc.) and behind the scenes cuddling up via various US State Department personnel visits, including recently Deputy Secretary Wendy Sherman, and signing a ‘space agreement’ fer crissakes, which really just recognises and approves the increased US military use of Rocketlab.

    https://nz.usembassy.gov/deputy-secretary-sherman-in-new-zealand/

    https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2021/07/rocket-lab-s-peter-beck-defends-contracts-with-us-military-says-space-industry-intertwined-with-defence.html

    Toadying up to US Imperialism is never a good look–how far away can actual AUKUS membership be?–this is shameful for a country with Nuclear Free Legislation.

    • Sabine 4.1

      Well we must hope then that L will do its utmost best to prevent what ever they are creating re Water and other utilities to be not misused for privatisation by other parties.

      I mean after all they are doing all the 'reforming' atm. Surely safeguarding and safekeeping of these assets in the commons will be a big aspect of it.

      • ianmac 4.1.1

        National refused to discuss the Privatisation model of proposed 3 Waters, saying instead that they would cancel 3 Waters so privatisation would be irrelevant. Ha Ha!

        • LibertyBelle 4.1.1.1

          Well yeah, if something doesn't exist, it can't be privatised. smiley

        • Sabine 4.1.1.2

          I would expect N to privatize anything they can lay their hands on, after all that is what they do.

          What i expect of L is to know that too and to safeguard our assets so that they can not be privatized by anyone and keep it in the Commons for all.

          • Mac1 4.1.1.2.1

            Labour seeks to entrench the provision against privatisation. National refuses.

            https://www.newsroom.co.nz/three-waters-entrenchment

            • LibertyBelle 4.1.1.2.1.1

              It's meaningless. Future governments can simply change the law. The greatest protection against privatisation would be to reverse the 3Waters reforms altogether.

              • Robert Guyton

                Or block National & ACT from getting into government.

                I favour this solution 🙂

                • Mac1

                  Unhappily for us, but happily for democracy, we two don't get to decide that!

                  Enrol. Join a Party. Canvass. Vote.

                • Stuart Munro

                  Both works for me.

                  Let some National government long after my death find itself facing a public backlash of unprecedented severity for trying to pass legislation allowing it to steal our country's water.

              • Mac1

                LibertyBelle. Do you understand what was proposed in the entrenched clause? 75% majority required.

                • LibertyBelle

                  Yes. Which means future governments can simply change the law.

                  • Incognito

                    As obtuse as ever, I see.

                    • AB

                      Is the clause that entrenches the anti-privatisation clause also entrenched? i.e. can the entrenchment itself be removed with a simple majority? Genuine question – I'm not sure how this stuff works.

              • Nic the NZer

                The argument you were making was actually if something doesn't exist it can't be privatized. So I expect your about to explain how the country should function doing away with its water infrastructure (rather than privatizing it, or relying on the government not to). So do go ahead…

                • weka

                  not really. It's a matter of how easy it is to privatise. Is it easier to privatise currently or if 3 waters is enacted?

                  Is there an explanation for how NACT will be prevented from privatising using the 3 Waters structure?

                  • Nic the NZer

                    Well good for you, you want to assume 'LibertyBelle' is making a good faith argument, rather than the argument actually made in 4.1.1.1.

                    Robert Guyton has a good understanding of the relevant constitutional arrangements here of course.

                    • LibertyBelle

                      My argument is in good faith and goes like this.

                      3Waters creates a monolithic, nationwide, water services organisation. For all intents and purposes it ends Council control over those assets, and transfers control to that entity, which is in effect a monopoly. My view is that is a far more attractive beast for privatisation that a series of truly locally controlled and owned water services enterprises.

                      I view 3Waters as a strange animal. It seems to be a solution well wide of the problem, but that's a different discussion. It is far being a safeguard against privatisation.

                    • weka

                      no, I was responding to *you apparently dismissing concerns (from anyone) about how tory-proof the plan is.

                    • Nic the NZer

                      NZ doesn't have an overriding constitutional system. The only possible protection is not to have a privatising govt in office. A 75% vote against privatisation would be stronger but even this govt doesn't have such a majority.

                      On the other hand LibertyBelle's argument that govts can change laws is not in good faith. They have several arguments at the same time as you can see. Apparently their best argument, presented at the dregs of a thread for the first time naturally, is that having national framework for water makes it a monopoly. Water is a natural monopoly regardless of the legislation.

                      But your looking for some stronger proofing than legislation inside a legislative system. Good luck.

                    • LibertyBelle

                      "Water is a natural monopoly regardless of the legislation."

                      The issue is not whether 'water' is a monopoly, the issue is whether the delivery of water services is a monopoly. 3Waters creates such a monopoly at a national level, which makes it an attractive proposition for sale.

                    • Robert Guyton

                      Are you aware, LibertyBelle, of provisions and protections made by the Labour Government, to guard against the very thing you fear?

                    • Nic the NZer

                      Regardless of what you want to call it water is a natural monopoly.

                    • Nic the NZer

                      Robert, LibertyBelle is clearly fearless.

                • LibertyBelle

                  The country can function without the 3Waters reforms quite well. And with smaller water providers, the likelihood of privatisation would be significantly reduced.

              • Ad

                Weirdly Maori corporates gaining 50% of the water entities start to look a lot more reliable than Parliament as a defence of sovereign ownership here.

                Imagine if Maori had owned 50% of Contact, Genesis, or Mighty River Power (as it was). Then Key tried to sell them (as he did). He would have Supreme Court rulings at him left right and centre.

                The 75% threshold is the Parliamentary limit. But they forgot the first 50% Maori limit.

                With Maori at the table from the beginning, it would be very hard to see these new entities bringing in Vivendi and RWE to 'privatise-by-stealth' as Papakura Council did in the early 2000s.

                • LibertyBelle

                  Maori ‘sell’ assets they obtain for gain and good on them. For example ex Crown land in Auckland offered to mana whenua under RFR clauses in the Tamaki Collective.

              • lprent

                You could really do with some civics lessons.

                It’s meaningless. Future governments can simply change the law

                I have made bold the relevant section.

                Entrenchment in NZ

                Six provisions in New Zealand law are constitutionally entrenched, meaning they can only be changed by a vote of more than 75% of the House of Representatives or more than 50% at a referendum. They are contained in the Electoral Act 1993 (and one in the Constitution Act 1986) and relate to:

                • the term of Parliament
                • the Representation Commission (a committee that determines electoral boundaries)
                • the division of New Zealand into general electorates
                • the 5% margin for the population of general electorates
                • the minimum voting age of 18
                • the method of secret voting.
                • LibertyBelle

                  None of which prevents any future government changing the legislation.

                  • lprent

                    Except that it gets way way way harder to get a 75% vote from MPs than it does to get a 50% vote.

                    Perhaps you should have a look at how few times a 75% vote is achieved on any legislation in our parliament.

                    Usually it is only on repair legislation, treaties, MP pensions, and the few bits of legislation enabling referendums, and …. thats about it.

                    It requires a super majority by both major parties before it can happen in reality. As you can see from the examples given – we really only get entrenched legislation on things of common interest to both major political groups.

                    • LibertyBelle

                      Of course it's 'way harder'. But it isn't impossible. The combined value of the water services companies will be huge, and a very tempting proposition for raising money, particularly to pay off debt.

                    • Incognito []

                      So, now you change your tune from twice “future governments can simply change the law” [my italics] to “Of course it’s ‘way harder’”.

                      In my view, you are a disingenuous commenter who does not come here in good faith and who sucks away a lot of oxygen, in fact way too much oxygen.

                  • LibertyBelle

                    "So, now you change your tune from twice “future governments can simply change the law” [my italics] to “Of course it’s ‘way harder’”."

                    You have difficulty with comprehension. The word simply doesn't always mean something is simple, does it? Here's an example – 'if someone continues to ignore you, you can simple ignore them'. Get it now?

                    • Incognito

                      Yes, I get that you like to waste good people’s time here and that you’re pretty good at it too. As a Moderator I’m always concerned about obtuse commenters who monopolise the discourse here and who clearly show no sign of letting up. Let’s see if your reading comprehension is up to it and if you can parse this.

                      PS to write “… you can simple ignore them” is not cute. Perhaps you could pay more attention to what others are saying instead of ignoring them and/or fobbing them off. And believe me, I won’t ignore you.

                    • Robert Guyton

                      "You have difficulty with comprehension."

                      A step too far, imo.

                    • Robert Guyton

                      LibertyBelle, Incognito, is, in my opinion, giving you, and us, the run-around 🙂

            • Sabine 4.1.1.2.1.2

              N is currently in no position to refuse anything as they are not the government. Labour a single majority – they can do as they like.

              It is easy to blame N – after all they are whom they are, but currently all they can do is bark.

  4. Stephen D 5

    Even more reasons to revile the current occupation of Ukraine.

    From Nature Magazine.

    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-02219-4?utm_source=Nature+Briefing&utm_campaign=0ee1356685-briefing-dy-20220816&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c9dfd39373-0ee1356685-47041915

    ”Even a small conflict in which two nations unleash nuclear weapons on each other could lead to worldwide famine, research suggests. Soot from burning cities would encircle the planet and cool it by reflecting sunlight back into space. This, in turn, would cause global crop failures that — in a worst-case scenario — could put five billion people on the brink of death. The research is the latest in a decades-long thought experiment about the global consequences of nuclear war. It seems especially relevant today as Russia’s war against Ukraine has disrupted global food supplies, underscoring the far-reaching impacts of a regional conflict. “

  5. Rosemary McDonald 6

    Toby Curtis dead. "Sir" if you go along with such honours.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/rotorua-daily-post/news/te-arawa-leader-sir-toby-curtis-dies-at-home-in-rotorua/FXUCJIIDPFCUS6TXINZ2V7EORA/

    This is the same Toby Curtis that expressed disappointment that his nephews were found guilty of murdering Nia Glassie rather than being found guilty of the lesser charge of manslaughter.

    This is the same Toy Curtis who spoke about the shame the Curtis family would have to endure as they visited marae around the rohe. Yes….he did give the impression that it was an untoward burden of shame…rather than one richly deserved.

    This is the same Toby Curtis, who described the murder of Nia Glassie as "…just one of those things."

    I vividly remember this particular interview I have involuntarily snorted every time in the past 14 years he has been introduced as 'Highly respected Te Arawa kaumatua.'

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/11279/child%27s-death-just-one-of-those-things-killers%27-family

  6. newsense 7

    Losing faith in Colin Dann-

    sits there and lets Luxon pontificate about how they, the principled party, believe voters should choose the MPs, when his party is currently in the middle of a scandal where they kept information from voters so they could not choose properly on full information.

    From today’s Morning Report.

    • Mac1 7.1

      https://elections.nz/assets/Party-rules/national-party-rules-and-constitution.pdf

      Candidate selection rules Rules 87-118 apply.

      Rule 98. (a)

      A pre-selection committee shall be convened in all Electorates at the closing of nominations, subject to Rule 97 (a).

      (b) The purpose of the pre-selection committee is to:

      1. (i) Conduct in depth interviews and reference checks with the approved nominees;
      2. (ii) In the event that there are more than five approved nominees, then to reduce the number of nominees to five (including the sitting National Member of Parliament if approved as a nominee by the Board); and
      3. (iii) Exclude from further consideration in the selection process those nominees who are considered unsuitable to be National Members of Parliament

      So, Luxon believes voters should choose the MPs? Who chooses the candidates?

    • Kat 7.2

      Agree with you newsense, the conflating of the Waka jumping law by Luxon with “National supports letting the voters choose MP's" was never challenged by Corin Dann either. Kim Hill would have though.

      • newsense 7.2.1

        I know poor old Luxy had a tough interview with Susie a week or two back, but given the background of these couple of weeks and couple of years of candidate selection it’s worse than softball.

        Quite clear the selection team knew about Uffindell and thought he was fine. Why?

  7. Ad 8

    Labour on current polling even to get a shot at government needs the Greens to be stronger, the Maori Party to be stronger, and any other help.

    So presumably now if Ardern really wants power in a third term, she has some deals to stitch:

    – Labour agrees not to oppose Gaurav Sharma in Hamilton West, and he agrees to support Labour in the party vote. Or Labour just agrees to let his LEC select him.

    – Labour agrees not to oppose Chloe Swarbrick in Auckland Central

    – Labour agrees not to stand Tamati Coffey against Rawiri Waititi

    – Labour agrees not to stand a candidate in Te Tai Hauaru against Debbie Ngarewa-Packer

    As the polls get deeper the list will need to be added to.

    • Jimmy 8.1

      National will probably be eyeing up having a decent crack at the Hamilton West seat next election.

      • Bearded Git 8.1.1

        I'm sure they will Jimmy….but as you know it is the party vote that counts.

        • Belladonna 8.1.1.1

          No. The electorate vote (FPP) is what elects a local MP (in Hamilton West or any other electorate).
          The party vote only matters for the list seats.

          I highly doubt that Labour will win Hamilton West. They won in 2020 due to the Jacinda bounce – but hadn't won the seat for the previous 15 years.

          Unless there is a major reversal of current polling it would seem one that National would likely win – even without the Sharma situation.

          • Bearded Git 8.1.1.1.1

            Agreed Bella-sorry I didn't make my post clear.

            Of course it is the electorate vote that elects individuals in electorates but it is the percentage party vote that dictates the number of MP's per each party ends up with, assuming a party gets at least 5% or has one or more electorate seat.

            (And there can be overhang seats too)

      • Nic the NZer 8.1.2

        More than a crack, there was a line of thinking that Dr Sharma kicked the whole thing off after noting that Hamilton West was very likely going back to the National candidate next time.

    • Sabine 8.2

      Tamati Coffey can stand all he wants, he will not win a thing.

    • weka 8.3

      that's a big cultural shift for a party that prides itself on standing someone in every electorate, and which has eschewed such strategy in the past. Do you think it's likely?

    • Belladonna 8.4

      Think Sharma is unlikely, as he doesn't have a realistic chance of winning against National, especially without the Labour machine behind him.

      Definitely worth considering the other two scenarios, to benefit TPM and Greens. Although Labour has always firmly rejected this kind of accommodation in the recent past.
      And would have to put those candidates not standing in a very winnable place on the party list (which might be a tense negotiation – especially with Helen White in Ak Central), or parachute them into a post-parliamentary career (cf Louisa Wall)

      • Belladonna 8.4.1

        The way the polls are ATM, the Greens don't need the accommodation in Ak Central – they have sufficient polling support to get into parliament, independently.

        TPM require an electorate seat, unless they hit the 5% threshold (which seems unlikely at the moment). I don't know enough about the personalities and the politics in the individual Maori electorates, to know if TPM candidate is already the front-runner – so whether a Labour concession is worth-while for them.

  8. ianmac 9

    Is the Taxpayers Poll being discussed? 17 August:

    Christopher Luxon's Preferred Prime Minister results continue their slide. Mr Luxon was on 28% in June is now on just 19.5% today. Jacinda Ardern is at 39.5%.

    …overall gain for the Labour/Green centre-left parties at the expense of the National/ACT centre-right bloc.

    https://www.taxpayers.org.nz/taxpayer_update_new_poll_peter_williams_podcast_mp_whistleblower

    • Bearded Git 9.1

      Thanks Ianmac-I hadn’t seen that and the media doesn't seem to be talking about the Taxpayers Union Poll.

      Perhaps this is because it shows Lab/Gr/MP getting 62 seats and so being able to form a government.

      • Belladonna 9.1.1

        Doubt it. All polls have been keenly addressed to date – and the media have regularly led with TPM holding the 'balance of power'.

        Suspect it's just that Sharma has sucked all the political oxygen over the last few days, as Uffindell did previously.

        As this seems to be dying down now, I'd expect regular transmission to resume.

        My $0.02 worth: I think all polls with a difference of less than 3% are within the margin of error, and too close to call (been saying this consistently for months)

      • Incognito 9.1.2

        Never ever rely solely (or blindly) on (NZ) MSM. If you like to see just the poll numbers without the ‘interpretation’ of the usual suspects in NZ MSM and political pundits with the inevitable associated bias then go here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_New_Zealand_general_election

        It is very up to date 🙂

      • ianmac 9.1.3

        I knew there was a Taxpayer Poll out but couldn't find it on The Herald. Why not?

        And even on the Taxpayers page the seem to dodge the numbers leaving it in broad graphs. But they are not biased are they?

      • Anne 9.1.4

        Doesn't suit their agreed agenda BG? Now if it had been the other way round… Luxon was soaring and Arderrn plummeting then it would have knocked the Sharma drama, and the Uffindell upset completely off the news circuit. It may even have forced the raging torrents of water flooding villages and towns in the Sth. Island into second place. 👿

        • Belladonna 9.1.4.1

          Media have frequently reported these polls (both with Labour ahead and with National ahead, as well as with TMP holding the balance of power – as they do in this one).

          To ascribe this as not being reported, because it doesn't fit an 'agenda' is pretty far gone along the conspiracy theory path.

          And, indeed, a quick search of the news headlines finds an article in the Herald, released at 11:18 this morning.

          https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/poll-national-and-leader-christopher-luxon-drop-labour-overtakes-in-new-poll/NOLDDJMIMBHUZPPHZV22XP5XFA/

          • ianmac 9.1.4.1.1

            Thanks Belladonna though I just had a look again online and apart from your link I still couldn't find it. Certainly not front and centre.

            • Belladonna 9.1.4.1.1.1

              Google search: poll today nz – has it as the first result in the hit list.

              It's not hard….

              • Belladonna

                NZ herald Politics section has it on the front page, too

                https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/

              • Incognito

                Google searches are tailored to each individual user, i.e., your ‘hits’ will be (slightly?) different from anybody else’s ‘hits’. It also depends on whether one limits to NZ only or all countries, for example. That said, the NZH is also the first result (“20 hours ago”) of my search using Google.

                • Belladonna

                  Yeah, I know that Google relevance rankings use an arcane art to weigh results. But working on the assumption that commenters here are both interested in politcs and in NZ – you're pretty likely to get the same results for a political search.

          • Anne 9.1.4.1.2

            Bollocks Belladonna. I know you have a high opinion of your abilities, but many of us here are experienced and politically very aware. Being lectured by you about some aspects that we have known for years might be amusing, but is not always a pathway to good conversations.

            Bearded Git @ 9.1 knows I was being facetious with a tinge of humour thrown in. TS regulars are well versed in such banter. Suggest you read and learn before leaping in with your criticism. It only lead to equally negative responses.

            • Belladonna 9.1.4.1.2.1

              Many of the commenters on TS are, indeed, highly experienced and politically very aware.

              Poorly informed claims that the media are biased, however, aren't either funny or clever. And, in fact, they are dangerous…. (if you can't figure out why, I'm happy to discuss further)

              Using emoticons or emojis doesn't excuse you from mis-representing the facts. Although it might pay to stick to ones where you're certain of the meaning, and equally certain it won't be misunderstood.

              The occasional apology – when you get something wrong – wouldn't exactly go amiss. Doubling down, when you're called on something, also 'leads to negative responses'

              • Bearded Git

                On that note Bella I accept now that the Herald did report the TU poll prominently.

                Having said that it's report that the MP would be the "kingmaker" appears somewhat biased when in fact they would be the queenmaker.

                And correct me if I am wrong but Griffin's RNZ has given this poll no air time at all?

                • Belladonna

                  Sorry, don't have enough time in my day to listen to radio & know whether or not it was covered in any of the programmes.

                  The RNZ politics page has a grand total of 3 political links dated the 17th on the main page (page viewed 10 am 18/8)

                  https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political

                  * Govt orders review of RSE scheme

                  * Luxon still against waka jumping legislation amid Uffindell inquiry

                  * Sharma remains under threat of expulsion (really a re-hash of the day before, for those who get their news in the morning)

                  Seems a fairly balanced list of topics: both right and left getting some airtime, and a big government-initiated investigation into a topic of significance.

          • Anne 9.1.4.1.3

            Oh and btw, that is why we add emoticons. It is to show we are not always being strictly serious. See, you've learnt something.

      • swordfish 9.1.5

        .

        Left & Right blocs essentially neck-and-neck … TPM holding balance.

        Luxon's initial fall in popularity didn't affect National's ratings, now it's beginning to.

        While NZF is only rating 2.6%, Winston almost doubles his personal popularity to 4.2% … suggesting a pool of voters who are currently unsure of their party support but prefer Winnie as PM (possibly indicating some latent NZF support that may manifest over the next year).

        • pat 9.1.5.1

          Indicating they are not accepting of either major party ….or a plague on both their houses.

        • Robert Guyton 9.1.5.2

          "…a pool of voters who are currently unsure of their party support but prefer Winnie as PM (possibly indicating…") their complete detachment from reality?

        • Belladonna 9.1.5.3

          Peters is still well below Seymour in preferred PM league.

          I think we can all agree that the rats-and-mice numbers at the bottom are just about name recognition in those surveyed, rather than signifying any real support. Especially as those indicating they would vote for NZF remain around 2.5% (as they have all year) well shy of the 5% threshold.

          Ardern and Luxon are the only ones that matter here.

          Ardern will be hoping that the uptick in popular support for her, personally, will spill over into Labour votes, too.

          • swordfish 9.1.5.3.1

            ..

            Peters is still well below Seymour in preferred PM league.

            Irrelevant to the question of whether or not the doubling of his personal rating (making it almost twice as high as current committed NZF supporters) indicates a latent potential pool of support for NZF.

            ..

            Especially as those indicating they would vote for NZF remain around 2.5% (as they have all year)

            Nope … NZF support in Curia-Taxpayers Polls (2022):

            Jan 0.9 … Feb 1.5 … March 1.8 … April 1.7 … May 1.8 … June 2.3 … July 2.8 … Aug 2.6.

            ..

            well shy of the 5% threshold

            NZF has made a bit of a habit of outperforming the polls. Not in 2020 … but certainly in election campaigns where Labour's support is down on the previous election (NZF outperforming both in terms of the immediate pre-election polls and, even more so, the polls more than a year out … which is where we are at the moment).

            ..

            Ardern will be hoping that the uptick in popular support for her, personally, will spill over into Labour votes, too.

            Ardern is down slightly in this latest Curia-Taxpayers Poll.

            • Belladonna 9.1.5.3.1.1

              Ardern is down slightly in this latest Curia-Taxpayers Poll.

              Apologies, I was looking at the general trend, here – which has her with a sharp tick up. I gather you were measuring against the previous CT poll?

              https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_New_Zealand_general_election

              Re Peters. I don't think that doubling support, when the figures are so low, is really meaningful. It would be well within the margin of error.

              Poll results at the margins (below about 3%) are notoriously inaccurate.

              NZF made a habit of outperforming polls when voters believed that Peters would go with the larger party, and be a handbrake on them. After 2017, I don't think that many voters would trust him to do that.

              Future polls will show if you're right. If there's an upward trend for NZF – then, you have my concession in advance. 🙂

              However, I do think that many people (those who aren't firm party voters), tend to select the 'person' they like for the leader category, but are generally more influenced by policies (or what's going right or wrong for them in an economic/political sense) when deciding which 'party' to vote for.
              [That's just my opinion, BTW, I don't have anything from polling companies to back it up]

              • Incognito

                For your education:

                What is the poll’s margin of error?
                The maximum sampling error is approximately ± 3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. This is the sampling error for a result around 50%. Results higher and lower than 50% have a smaller sampling error. For example, results around 10% and 5% have sampling errors of approximately ±1.9%-points and 1.4%-points respectively at the 95% confidence level.

                https://www.colmarbrunton.co.nz/1-news-poll/

        • Bearded Git 9.1.5.4

          Yes Winston is a worry Sword…he will probably go with Luxon next time IMHO.

    • observer 9.2

      I still believe National will replace Luxon before the election. They would be crazy not to. Every Wednesday morning is Jacinda's birthday. An election campaign is non-stop Wednesday mornings.

      See the preferred PM polling from 2005 to 2008. Luxon is Brash, not Key. Why try and win with a self-imposed handicap?

      I don't know if they have a Key, or an Ardern – maybe Willis would be the closest. But Luxon definitely isn't, that comparison has never made any sense.

      So anyway … National caucus, please ignore the above. Luxon's the man!

      • Stuart Munro 9.2.1

        Willis is smart enough – but not long on charisma. This is also Luxon's weakness. Key could fake a bit of bonhomie, but the only Gnat with any charisma at all is Bishop, whose intellect, sadly, always makes us recall the opening lines of this song.

      • Belladonna 9.2.2

        I don't think Luxon is at all secure, though there is no obvious successor – and National will be very wary of any further instability (the post-Bridges history is a dreadful warning….)

        I think that the next poll or two will be critical. If the National vote stabilizes or rises – they won't really care about Luxon's personal popularity, too much.

        • Bearded Git 9.2.2.1

          They won't ditch Luxon. They will simply media train him within an inch of his life and tell him to play it safe.

          I do think Luxon doubling down on the tax cuts for the rich (39% rate gone, bright line test back to 2 years) are a huge mistake and a gift to Labour.

      • swordfish 9.2.3

        .

        More Clark vs Brash in the run-up to the 2005 Election … which was close.

  9. ianmac 10

    And a cunning TPU question heading with:"Most Voters want the Government to cut taxes."

    "As part of this month's poll, our polsters asked voters whether they support a temporary 10% reduction in overall income tax for all families to help with the increased cost of living. 59% said yes."

    • Bearded Git 10.1

      Next the TU will be asking turkeys "Do you support Christmas?"

      • ianmac 10.1.1

        But a recent poll showed that 65 % didn't want tax cuts. So was that Taxpayers question a defensive move to soften the Luxon Stand?

        • Sabine 10.1.1.1

          Both can be true.

          Personally i am not for tax cuts at the upper end of income. I would prefer the first 10 – 25 grand to be made tax free as that would support low income workers, pensioneers and beneficiaries most as they would fall into this group.

          Maybe it depends were the cutting happens?

        • Bearded Git 10.1.1.2

          Maybe you are right ianmac, but Luxon has recently doubled down on tax cuts as I said above.

  10. logie97 11

    Good afternoon Moderator

    I am following Lynn's instructions to advise you that I have changed my email address.

    It used to be a [deleted] email.

    Thanks.

    • Incognito 11.1

      Thanks for the note and you’re all good to go using the new e-mail address from now on. Your avatar will be different though.

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